PRAISE FOR WALID PHARES AND FUTURE JIHAD “Phares understands the language of Jihadism and analyses Arab Islamic politics authoritatively.He is a leading educator to the public and an eye opener to decision makers. Right on the subject and says it like it is.” —Dr. Jacob Keryakes, NBC Arabic Translator and Linguist “Dr. Walid Phares is an experienced expert whom the media trusts to provide accurate and timely insights on the nature of jihad and Islamic-based terrorism. His book is a ‘must read’ on the threats we face in the future.” —Andrew Cochran, Founder & Editor, The Counterterrorism Blog “Dr. Phares’ comments and analysis are always insightful and provide a cultural ‘insider’s view’ of the Middle East and the global jihad movement.” —Rick Hahn, Former FBI Terrorism expert. MSNBC Counter Terrorism analyst “Dr. Phares has an unmatched knowledge of the Middle East with its tightly interwoven tapestry of language, religion, history and politics. He can bring an inter-disciplinary approach to complex security issues. Unlike so many analysts, he can convey his encyclopedic knowledge of the Middle East in multiple languages.” —Colonel Kenneth Allard, USA (Ret.), Former Dean, National War College and NBC Defense Analyst “Walid Phares’ precise, ‘pulls no punches’ analysis of an extremely complex and difficult issue should be required reading in the counterterrorism community.” —Col. Rick Francona, Retired intelligence officer, CNBC News analyst “Walid Phares is a uniquely perceptive expert on radical Islamism, terrorism, and related issues.” —Cliff May, President, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies “Walid Phares’ academic analysis of the politics of Jihad ideologies and movements and their perception of international relations is unique. His book, Future Jihad, is pioneering in the new field of post 9/11 clash of ideas. His deep understanding and equal of Arab and Western political cultures enables him to tell the story entirely as he frequently does in writing but also on al jazeera, al Hurra, and the many Western networks such as NBC, CNN, Fox News, CBC, and BBC.” —Dr. Franck Salameh, Professor of Arab Culture, Boston University MORE PRAISE FOR WALID PHARES AND FUTURE JIHAD “Walid Phares’ expert analysis on Jihad terrorism and its future possibilities is unparalleled. His depth and breadth of knowledge on Jihad terrorism and its historical roots is essential to understanding the enemy we face. His arguments that we must know and understand our adversary in order to confront it are extremely convincing. Phares’ analysis is fundamental to defeating the Jihadis and their ideology. His book is a must-read for students and policy-makers around the world.” —Stephen Shellman, Ph.D., Co-Director, Workshop on Teaching about Terrorism and Professor, College of William & Mary “Walid Phares is the ultimate ‘connect-the-dots’ analyst. Where others see a blur disconnected facts, he sees a picture, and he is a master at describing what he sees to audiences as diverse as college students, federal courts, and the viewers of CNN. If you want to know who the jihadist enemies of America and the West are, what they are doing and why, and what must be done to defeat them, there is no better guide than Walid Phares.” —Dennis Hale, Associate Professor, Boston College “The concept of ‘jihad terrorism’ presented by Dr. Walid Phares puts the West on notice as to the true nature of the enemy and the parameters of what is, essentially, a total war between competing and incompatible worldviews.” —Earl Tilford, Professor of History, Grove City College “Walid Phares is a daring historian. He plays towards the Arab and Muslim world the role of Russian thinker Andrei Amalrik towards the Soviet Union: Speaking the truth.” —Dr. Jean Aucagne S.J, Saint Joseph University, Beirut FUTURE JIHAD Terrorist Strategies against America WALID PHARES FUTURE JIHAD Copyright © Walid Phares, 2005. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles or reviews. First published 2005 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN™ 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 and Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, England RG21 6XS. Companies and representatives throughout the world. PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin’s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan® is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN 1-4039-7074-2 hardback Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Phares, Walid, 1957– Future Jihad : terrorist strategies against America / Walid Phares. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 1-4039-7074-2 (alk. paper) 1. Terrorism—United States. 2. Terrorism—Islamic countries. 3. Terrorism— Religious aspects—Islam. 4. Jihad. 5. Qaida (Organization) 6. War on Terrorism, 2001– 7. Anti-Americanism. I. Title. HV6432.P493 2005 363.32’0973—dc22 2005049892 A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Design by Letra Libre, Inc. First edition: November 2005. 10987654321 Printed in the United States of America CONTENTS Acknowledgments vii List of Illustrations ix Introduction 1 Chapter One The Historical Roots of Jihad 17 Chapter Two Who Are the Jihadists? 47 Chapter Three After the Caliphate 69 Chapter Four The Nazi Alliance 77 Chapter Five The Communist Dilemma 83 Chapter Six Israel’s Fate 87 Chapter Seven What the Cold War Meant for the Future 99 Chapter Eight The New Jihad 113 Chapter Nine Jihadist Strategies against America 133 Chapter Ten The Inevitability of 9/11 153 Chapter Eleven Bin Laden’s Strategy against America 161 Chapter Twelve The Root Causes of America’s Failure 171 Chapter Thirteen Projecting Future Jihad 179 Chapter Fourteen The Clash of Strategies: America Versus Jihad 195 Chapter Fifteen America: Jihad’s Second Generation 211 Chapter Sixteen Mutant Jihad 239 Chapter Seventeen Guidelines and Prescriptive Policies 247 Conclusion 253 Notes 259 Index 273 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS his book is the result of a lifetime of observation and analysis. Its findings Twere drawn from decades of reading and research and patient listening to opinions expressed in a variety of forms. The birth of the book has to be cred- ited to an endless number of people I have met in my long journey across the world. My first acknowledgment must be to my readers, audiences, and faithful participants in the many forums to which I have made presentations. I must thank everyone who over the years had encouraged me to put these thoughts into writing. My second acknowledgment is to Cliff May, the president of the Founda- tion for the Defense of Democracies in Washington. I owe Cliff for his contin- uous support for my projects, and, along with my colleagues at the Foundation, I thank him for hosting me as a senior fellow and for deeply understanding the importance of my work and promoting it. My third acknowledgment goes to the team to which I owe the publish- ing project. Lynne Rabinoff, my very patient agent, never lost hope in this book, even as I postponed my decision for two years. She relentlessly en- couraged me to take the step and make this book a reality.Airié Stuart, my ed- itor, editorial director at Palgrave Macmillan, understood the message and importance of the book and guided me through the publishing process, strategizing with me and editing. I thank her for championing this book. I would also like to thank Bruce Murphy and the editors for their valuable comments on the manuscript, and also thank the production and marketing teams for their efficiency. My fourth acknowledgment is directed toward those who have influenced my thinking and methods. I hold a special regard for those instructors who im- pacted my intellectual evolution in my formative classroom years. My thanks also go to all the various editors, network producers and administrators, jour- nalists, publishers, anchorpeople, writers, and intellectuals on three continents who valued my remarks and my work and made it possible for me to share it with the public for over a quarter of a century.But, above all, I owe my thought process to my older brother, Sami, who decades ago opened my eyes. He was my mentor in the adolescence of my research life, and I cannot thank him enough for the light he shed during those early years. viii FUTURE JIHAD My final acknowledgment extends toward those in my personal life, those who have been affected by the time taken away from them and instead focused on this book. I must thank my loved ones and family, who stood by me during the hard times and shared the burden of a life filled with difficulties. I know my work would make them proud. My particular thoughts go to my mother and my sister, witnesses to my sacrifices. My strength comes from their understanding of my dedication to my work. And beyond the frontiers of life, I owe to my late father my constant desire to bring truth to people. He taught and convinced me that truth brings justice; he used to say: “Bring knowledge around you, that’s your mission.” LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Fig. 8.1. Jihad against the United States: 1980s/1990s 129 Fig. 8.2. Jihad Battlefields: The 1990s 129 Fig. 9.1. A Power Map of the Jihadist Lobby inside the United States 150 Fig. 13.1. Projected Jihad States, 2001–2008 185 Fig. 14.1. Future Jihad Objective: New Caliphate 209 Fig. 14.2. Dar el Harb 209 This page intentionally left blank INTRODUCTION HEN THE SECOND JET SLAMMED INTO THE NORTH World Trade Center WTower in Manhattan, I immediately told students standing next to me, “It’s a jihad Ghazwa..