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3 MAY to 30 JUNE 2010 i a p r 14 Come and visit our Exhibition in New York! 1 4 CTBTO u e s s i SpectruM PUTTING AN ctbto Magazine issue 14 | April 2010 END TO NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS THE COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR-TEST-BAN TREATY

Opening event: 4 May 2010 at 6pm / UN Visitor’s Lobby

UN Secretary BAN KI-MOON General UN Messenger MICHAEL DOUGLAS of Peace

CTBTO TIBOR TÓTH Executive Secretary The exhibition features the history of nuclear testing and the arduous path to adopting

the Comprehensive Nuclear- Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). It provides realistic impressions of the CTBT’s globe-spanning alarm system that monitors the planet for signs of a

nuclear test. It also shows President of the Australia's Kazakhstan's Mexico's how the system promptly Marshall Islands Foreign Minister foreign Minister Foreign Minister detected the two recent nuclear Jurelang Zedkaia Stephen Smith Kanat Saudabayev Patricia Espinosa explosions in North Korea. And it illustrates how the It is time Helping to thirteen Our state-of-the art technologies can help make a difference for the achieve a years of longstanding in people’s everyday lives. CTBT world without cooperation support to come into nuclear WiIth the for force weapons CTBbto the CTBT

ctbto spectrum Don't miss it – the area is open to the public! The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) bans all nuclear explosions on Earth.

It opened for signature on 24 September 1996 in New York.

As of April 2010, 182 countries had signed the Treaty and 151 had ratified it. Of the 44 nuclear capable States which must ratify the CTBT for it to enter into force, the so-called Annex 2 countries, 35 have done so to date while nine have yet to ratify: China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, Pakistan and the United States.

The Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear- Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) consists of the States Editor-in-Chief: Signatories and the Provisional Technical Secretariat. Annika Thunborg, The main tasks of the CTBTO are to promote signatures Spokesperson, Chief of Public Information and ratifications and to establish a global verification regime capable of detecting nuclear explosions underground, Prepared, coordinated and edited by: underwater and in the atmosphere. Denise Brettschneider

The regime must be operational when the Treaty enters CTBTO staff contributors: into force. It will consist of 337 monitoring facilities Jerry Carter, John Coyne, Andrew Forbes, supported by an International Data Centre and Kirsten Haupt, Matjaz Prah, Mark Prior, on-site inspection measures. Lamine Seydi, Markus Woltran

Layout: Todd Vincent

art direction: Michael Balgavy

Distribution: Pablo Mehlhorn

Photographs and illustrations are at the courtesy of the authors and the Provisional Technical Secretariat.

Please visit www.ctbto.org p u b l i s h e d b y : Public Information Your resource Preparatory Commission for the for stopping nuclear testing Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO)

If you wish to subscribe to the Vienna International Centre online version of the CTBTO Spectrum P.O. Box 1200 please visit the ‘email-alert’ area at www.ctbto.org 1400 Vienna, Austria Cover image: T +43 1 26030 6200 The concrete dome is on Runit Disclaimer: Island (part of Enewetak Atoll, The views expressed in articles by external contributors do F +43 1 26030 5823 Marshall Islands). It covers the not necessarily reflect the positions and policies of the CTBTO E [email protected] nine metre deep, 107 metre Preparatory Commission. wide crater created by the 1958 I www.ctbto.org The boundaries and presentation of material on maps do not “Cactus” nuclear test. Under the dome lie 84,927 cubic metres imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the Provisional Printed in Austria, April 2010 of radioactive soil and debris Technical Secretariat concerning the legal status of any country, on Munken Lynx Paper from Bikini and Rongelap Atolls. territory, city or area or its authorities, or concerning the © 2010 CTBTO Preparatory Commission wood and acid-free, [Gettyimages] delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. CTBTO Spectrum – ISSN: 1680-533X certified by the Forest Stewardship Council Table of Contents

2 Editorial CTBTO Executive Secretary Tibor Tóth

3 Status of CTBT signatures and ratifications (as of 6 April 2010)

4 Quotes

5 Interview Its time for the CTBTO to come into force President Jurelang Zedkaia of the Marshall Islands

8 Voices The CTBT: Helping to achieve a world without nuclear weapons by Stephen Smith, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Australia

11 Thirteen years of cooperation with the CTBTO by Kanat Saudabayev, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan

15 Our longstanding support for the CTBT by Patricia Espinosa Cantellano, Secretary of Foreign Relations of Mexico

18 Interview Ambassador Stephen Ledogar, U.S. chief negotiator of the CTBT talks to Annika Thunborg, Head of Public Information at the CTBTO

22 Status of certified IMS facilities (as of 6 April 2010)

23 In Memory of Boris Kvok, Director of the On-site Inspection Division

24 On-Site Inspections Main lessons from the Integrated Field Exercise 2008 by John R. Walker

28 CAPACITY BUILDING Reading the waves: How the CTBTO strengthens its monitoring system with knowledge by Kirstie Gregorich Hansen

30 Putting down its digital feet: A CTBTO project offers Member States the keys to better use its knowledge by Peter Rickwood

32 Verification Science Machine learning for Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty monitoring by Stuart Russell, Sheila Vaidya and Ronan Le Bras

36 Potential Civil and Scientific Applications Using hydroacoustic stations to monitor large whales: A case study in the South West Indian Ocean by Flore Samaran

40 Book Reviews

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 E ditorial Tibor TÓth Executive Secretary

Without a CTBT firmly in place, The Preparatory Commission for it will ultimately not be possible to move the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban forward on other non-proliferation and Treaty Organization (CTBTO) – and I disarmament measures. In May the dare to say other non-proliferation and Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) disarmament bodies – need a deeper Review Conference, an event held every pool from which to draw the experts five years, opens in New York. It gives they require to sustain the credibility the NPT's 189 Member States another of their verification arrangements. opportunity to repeat afresh, and it needs to be part of the final outcome, the The articles in this issue of Spectrum commitment they made in 2000 to bring reflect the wealth of topics related to the the CTBT into early force. CTBT and its verification regime. The A phenomenon occurs when more people President of the Marshall Islands and the ride bicycles or walk a city's streets: there The Treaty's virtue is that the whole Foreign Minister of Kazakhstan both are fewer accidents involving them, is more than the sum of its parts. To touch upon the devastating history of which leads to the hypothesis that there maintain the CTBT and have it flourish nuclear testing and how their countries is safety in numbers. The proposition demands broad political support have benefited from the CTBT. The is well served by the Comprehensive sustained by active participation. Foreign Ministers of Australia and Mexico Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). respectively explain their countries' strong Translated, this means engaging commitment to a CTBT in force. The U.S. Until 1996 when it opened for as many stakeholders as possible, chief negotiator of the CTBT, Stephen signature there had been over 2,000 nuclear stakeholders who have to be provided Ledogar, expands on a number of key tests conducted. Since then there have been with the means to participate on an equal issues from the Treaty negotiations, a handful, all by newcomers and all footing in implementing the Treaty as which continue to be relevant for today's condemned by the UN Security Council. well as benefiting from its civil and debate. On the verification side, themes scientific applications. span from how hydroacoustic data can The numbers speak for themselves: be used to monitor whales and how 182 States have signed the CTBT and 151 More than any other developing countries benefit from have ratified it. The Treaty is approaching international arms control treaty, capacity building activities, to recent universality. It is a matterof fact. the CTBT relies on a unique and developments in data mining and on-site There are few international treaties comprehensive verification regime inspection techniques. and legal agreements that enjoy such driven by science and technology. a commitment of support. The ability of many countries to Let me end by paying tribute to participate in it is limited by its my dear friend and colleague Boris It remains of utmost importance advanced technical nature. This is why Kvok, director of the On-Site Inspection that each and every one of the nine we have embarked on a new initiative (OSI) Division from 2004-2010, who outstanding States takes steps to offering Member States the means to passed away in February. Boris was a ratify the Treaty so that it can enter further develop the capabilities to beloved colleague, leading his division into force and consigns the nuclear have a more active role. The initiative from a conceptual to a more practical testing era to the dustbin of history. will expand on the capacity building approach. He will be greatly missed That is truly my hope. activities that already exist. as a professional as well as a human being, by everyone at the CTBTO and Nevertheless, this waypoint we've We are restructuring training in the wider non-proliferation and reached has been the consequence of activities, consolidating further courses disarmament community of which every single signature, every single and workshops, and increasing our focus Boris was an active member. ratification by States over the past ten on improved distance learning years, commitments entered into even opportunities. In addition, we will expand in times of the most politically inclement our existing networks and seek open, weather. Bold, singular commitment flexible and tailor-made cooperation is still required to stay the course by arrangements with potential partners ratifying and signatory States alike. from all parts of the world.

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 Status of Signatures and Ratifications As of 6 April 2010

Signatory States Ratifying States Non-Signatory States

Total States: 195 182 151 13

Annex 2 States: 44 41 35 3

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 [We are] committed QUOTES to ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear- Test-Ban Treaty as soon …we must encourage as possible, and will work the rapid signing and together for the early entry ratification of the into force of the CTBT. Comprehensive Nuclear- Test-Ban Treaty, which Barack Obama would finally allow Hu Jintao PresidentS of the United States and China, for it to go into effect. Beijing, 17 November 2009 This is an extremely important task. Dmitry Medvedev It is difficult to overstate the importance of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty President of Russia, UN Security Council, as a crucial building block for both New York, 24 September 2009 non-proliferation and disarmament. It sets, in effect, a qualitative cap on the capacity of both existing weapons A decade ago, we led this effort possessors and potential new ones to develop new nuclear weapons. to negotiate this treaty in order to keep emerging nuclear states from  The International Commission on Nuclear perfecting their arsenals and to Non-Proliferation and Disarmament report, November 2009 prevent our rivals from pursuing ever more advanced weapons. We are confident that all reasonable concerns raised about the treaty back then – concerns about We hold the firm view that the qualitative verification and the reliability development of all nuclear weapons of our own arsenal – must stop, and therefore seek universal have now been addressed. adherence to the CTBT, first and The test ban treaty is as important as ever. foremost by all Nuclear Weapons States. That would make an excellent Joe Biden first step towards a world of zero U.s. Vice President, nuclear weapons. Washington DC, 18 February 2010 Marty Natalegawa

 foreign minister of Indonesia since october 2009, CTBT entry into force Conference, New York, 24 September 2009. 4

CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 « The Marshall Islands

»… no nation, and no people, should ever again be faced with a burden such as ours. And there is really only one way to assure that – through full global acceptance and ratification of this Treaty.«

It is time for the CTBT to come into force

Interview with President Jurelang Zedkaia of the Marshall Islands

The Marshall Islands have witnessed Although the nuclear tests ended in material. This storage facility is on a firsthand the immediate and long-term 1958, their lasting consequences continue low-lying island, surrounded by oceans effects of nuclear weapon testing on to be one of our most important and vulnerable to climate change impacts. human health, the ecosystem and the struggles. Firstly, the health impacts on The scientific understanding of human environment. Speaking at the our population continue to be passed and environmental exposure to nuclear Conference on Facilitating the Entry into down through generations, and are very material has been, unfortunately, a Force of the Comprehensive Nuclear- much a contemporary issue. moving target; some of our communities Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in September Secondly, while some remediation has resettled in their traditional homeland 2009, John Silk, the Foreign Minister of occurred, some of our local communities decades after testing ended, and had to the Marshall Islands, poignantly continue to remain in exile as we seek to be evacuated again when the science was described the effects of the U.S. testing ensure full scientific understanding. For revised. There is still, to this day, some programme: "The use and testing of the Marshallese, our land is closely tied dispute over the safe levels of exposure, nuclear weapons has created a burden, a to our very identity and culture. and so the risks posed by testing may legacy of impacts which have lasted Thirdly, we have yet to receive adequate remain. In September, Minister Silk generations, legacies on our land and and full compensation for our losses. acknowledged the important actions our health handed down from mother to Fourthly, we are faced with addressing already taken by the United States to daughter, and father to son." the storage facility on Runit island address these impacts, and discussions Could you elaborate on this statement? (see cover) for some of the radioactive are underway with the U.S. Congress

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« CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 Majuro and Arno Atolls, Marshall Islands

on some of these remaining issues. But ultimately, the deep scars on our nation caused by nuclear testing can never be »The CTBT defines a truly erased, no matter how many years pass. comprehensive and globally How do you think the damage caused structured platform for preventing by the nuclear testing programme in the Marshall Islands between 1946 nuclear testing. It builds a and 1958 has helped raise awareness about the perils of these weapons of global consensus and strong mass destruction? momentum for both immediate We cannot undo the past, but the efforts to reduce arsenals world must never again repeat such mistakes. It is important to note and the long-term goal of a that these nuclear tests were also conducted by the United States with nuclear-weapon-free world.« the explicit authorization of the United Nations (in Trusteeship resolution 1082 in 1954, and resolution 1493, adopted in 1956). During the time The CTBT not only prevents the Of course, we cannot speak for our of testing, there was considerable development of new nuclear weapons and Pacific neighbours on specific policy attention both from the international the improvement of existing nuclear issues. From our own experience as a community, and scientists and public weapon designs but also helps prevent small and recently independent nation, citizens within the United States. human suffering and environmental we are often overwhelmed by the damage caused by nuclear testing. num­ber of international treaties and We have continued over the their ratification or implementation years to remind the international Although the Treaty is approaching obligations. We have one of the community of the lessons which should universal adherence, with 182 highest "treaty per capita" ratios in the have been learned then, and which signatures and 151 ratifications to world. While the CTBT is a clear global must be learned now. We were one of date, three of the Pacific Island States priority, many other treaties also have the key nations speaking before the – Niue, Tonga and Tuvalu – have still very important goals, and it can be International Court of Justice, during not signed the CTBT. How do you think difficult to know which to address its consideration of the use of nuclear these non-signatory States can be first, since we cannot do all at once weapons in 1995. persuaded to sign the Treaty? when resources are limited.

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 »I deeply regret that such Based on the experience of the Marshall a Treaty, and such a global Islands, how do you think the Preparatory Commission for the consensus, did not exist Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) can help those when testing occurred in countries that have decided to sign or ratify the Treaty in terms of legal or the Marshall Islands.« administrative assistance?

A range of actions or options could be possible. From the Marshall Islands' It should be unquestionable that no How significant do you consider the CTBT unique perspective, sometimes more nation, and no people, should ever again to be for international efforts to reduce general strategies have to be further be faced with a burden such as ours. And nuclear arsenals, and for the long-term refined or closely tailored to address there is really only one way to assure goal of a nuclear-weapon-free world? national circumstances. In addition, the that – through full global acceptance and CTBTO can continue to assist in technical ratification of this Treaty. The CTBT defines a truly comprehensive areas where national expertise has not and globally structured platform for been fully developed – in our experience, In addition to the political benefits, preventing nuclear testing. It builds a the most effective assistance strategies membership of the CTBTO offers a global consensus and strong momentum covering capacity building are those which number of potential civil and scientific for both immediate efforts to reduce are sustained over a longer period of time. applications of its monitoring data, which arsenals and the long-term goal of could contribute to sustainable a nuclear-weapon-free world. The The Republic of the Marshall Islands was development and human welfare. These Treaty platform means that the global amongst the first 71 countries to sign the include tsunami warning, research on community sees not only political CTBT when it opened for signature on 24 ocean processes and marine life; climate commitment, but also multilateral September 1996. It ratified the Treaty on change research; volcanic eruption assurance, to prevent the harmful use 28 October 2009. Why did the Marshall monitoring for aviation safety; and of such weapons. Islands decide to ratify the Treaty at this studies on the Earth's structure. particular point in time? How important are some of these I deeply regret that such a Treaty, potential uses of CTBT data for the and such a global consensus, did not Increased international attention to Marshall Islands? exist when testing occurred in the nuclear testing, including the upcoming Marshall Islands. Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Given the impacts suffered by our Review Conference this May, provides a nation, we have a rightful and highly compelling reason to again focus global symbolic role to play as a global attention on a nuclear-weapon-free beacon by gathering monitoring world. The issue of nuclear testing and data. We should be among the weapons was recently listed by UN first to warn the world. The more Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon as one comprehensive benefits from Biographical note of the UN General Assembly's top work environmental monitoring are, for goals for this year. us, equally important. Being a small island nation, we also have one of the President What impact do you think ratification by most expansive, pristine and diverse Iroij Jurelang Zedkaia was elected as the fifth President the Marshall Islands might have on other ocean territories in the world, and of Republic of the Marshall Islands countries that have not yet done so? our survival, and our food security, in October 2009. Mr Zedkaia first depend closely on the health of became engaged in local politics in The Republic of the Marshall Islands has our coastal resources – which are 1991 as a representative of the people a strong moral voice on this issue; we increasingly threatened by climate of Majuro Atoll, which is the location of the capital of the Marshall Islands. are very unique in terms of the impacts change impacts. He was elected Vice Speaker of on our people and culture. One of the Parliament in 1997. Between 2000 best ways the international community We hope to work closely with and 2007 he served again as a Member can respond to us is by showing their the CTBTO to bolster our monitoring of Parliament for Majuro Atoll firm and legal commitment to halt future capacity, and to become an important and in 2008 became the Speaker of Parliament. testing. This is particularly true for international voice on understanding nations which possess nuclear stockpiles. our environment.

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 Australia

Helping to achieve a world without nuclear weapons

by Stephen Smith, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Australia

The entry into force of the Compre­ hensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) is a long-standing non-proliferation and disarmament priority for Australia. It is a crucial building block towards achieving the goal of a nuclear-weapon- free world. Australia is proud to have played an instrumental role in the development of the CTBT, and to be at the forefront of efforts to promote its entry into force.

Why the CTBT matters

The CTBT, once brought into effect, will play a key role in the global non-proliferation and disarmament regime. As noted by the recent International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament (ICNND) report, Eliminating Nuclear Threats, the CTBT "sets, in effect, a qualitative cap on the capacity of the existing nuclear weapons possessors and potential new ones to develop new nuclear weapons." In the five decades before the CTBT's conclusion in 1996, over 2,000 nuclear tests were conducted. There have been only a handful of tests since then, most recently those by North Korea in 2006 and 2009, with a number of those States that have not yet ratified the Treaty observing an informal moratorium on testing.

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 »I recently discussed with Such an important measure for international peace and security should the CTBTO Executive Secretary, not depend, however, on informal and voluntary observance. It needs to be Tibor Tóth, how Australia reinforced by the legally binding effect can continue to encourage and authority of the CTBT coming into force, and the complete implementation other nations in our region of its verification system. Australia believes entry into force of the CTBT to sign and ratify the Treaty.« would also reinforce and complement the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), one of the key pillars of global stability and security. We support Netherlands. In 2008, I was pleased to critical importance of the CTBT to our strongly the negotiation and conclusion Chair a meeting of around 80 foreign neighbours in the Asia Pacific region. of a fissile material cut-off treaty that ministers at the UN in New York, which Australia has supported the CTBT would, as the ICNND report notes, set reaffirmed the crucial importance of the through regional outreach programmes 'a quantitative cap' on the development CTBT and its entry into force. to promote ratification, most recently of new nuclear weapons. in workshops in Indonesia in November For more than a decade, Australia, 2008 and in Palau in May 2009. Australia's contribution Mexico and New Zealand have sponsored I recently discussed with the Preparatory a UN General Assembly (UNGA) Commission for the Comprehensive Australia played an active and influential resolution calling for the entry into force Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization's role in the negotiation of the CTBT in the of the CTBT. In 2009, a breakthrough was (CTBTO) Executive Secretary, Tibor Tóth, Conference on Disarmament (CD) from achieved when, for the first time in nine how Australia can continue to encourage 1994 to 1996. When adoption of the years, all five permanent members of the other nations in our region to sign and Treaty was blocked in the CD, Australia Security Council voted for the resolution. ratify the Treaty. led international action to take it to the United Nations in New York, where Australia has also led efforts in the Australia's role in the it was adopted by an overwhelming Conference on Facilitating the Entry into CTBT's verification system majority. Australia signed the CTBT Force of the CTBT – the so-called Article on 24 September 1996 and ratified XIV conference – and from 2005 to 2007 The establishment of the CTBT's the Treaty on 9 July 1998. The strong served as coordinator of international verification ystems – including the international support for the CTBT is efforts to promote this objective. International Monitoring System (IMS) – demonstrated by its 182 signatures Australia will continue to promote the will be a challenging task. and 151 ratifications. But to achieve universal application of the CTBT, it is vital to get over the line with ratification CTBTO Operation Centre Australia's Foreign Minister by the remaining nine Annex 2 States Stephen Smith [left] and required to bring the Treaty into force. Tibor Tóth, CTBTO Executive Secretary [right] at the CTBTO headquarters in Vienna, Australia has warmly welcomed 17 February 2010. President Obama's commitment that the United States will move forward with ratification and work with others to bring the Treaty into force. Ratification by the United States would be a catalyst for others to act. But the responsibility to act rests not only with the United States. Other Annex 2 States also need to ratify.

Since the conclusion of the CTBT, Australia has vigorously promoted the Treaty's entry into force. Australia initiated the "Friends of the CTBT" Foreign Ministers' Meeting in 2002, in cooperation with Japan and the Photo: Todd Vincent

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 Infrasound station IS05 Hobart, Australia The CTBTO is to be congratulated for function of the IMS makes its data its efforts to date. But much work remains useful for disaster alert. On 12 to be done, and it is important that States September 2008, Australia signed an provide the necessary financial, technical arrangement with the CTBTO under and political support to the CTBTO. The which data from IMS stations can be IMS is a sensitive and highly reliable used by the Australian Tsunami Warning network of over 300 monitoring facilities. System. As I noted in a meeting with Australia will host 21 of these facilities, Executive Secretary Tóth on 17 February the third largest number in any country, 2010, we regard the CTBT as one of the after the United States and Russia. most fundamental steps the global »… We regard the community can take to reach the Seventeen of Australia's facilities ultimate objective of the abolition of CTBT as one of the have already been installed, certified nuclear weapons. most fundamental to CTBT standards and are sending data to the International Data Centre I urge all States yet to sign steps the global (IDC) in Vienna. Plans to install the and ratify the CTBT to do so at remaining facilities are in hand. An the earliest opportunity. community can Australian expert is chairing work take to reach the to develop procedures for on-site inspections. In May 2010, Australia will ultimate objective host a workshop for regional countries Biographical note to discuss the work of National Data Stephen Smith of the abolition of Centres (NDC) under the CTBT. The was sworn in as Australia's Minister workshop will aim both to promote for Foreign Affairs in December nuclear weapons.« 2007. Prior to this appointment, Mr. the establishment of NDC capacity in Smith held a range of key shadow Australia's region, and to help relevant ministerial positions, including in the States to complete ratification processes. portfolios of Education and Training, Industry, Infrastructure and The benefits of the CTBTO's IMS Industrial Relations, Health, Trade, Communications and Resources and are not limited to the detection of Energy. From 1991 to 1992, he was possible nuclear tests. Much of the data Special Adviser to the Prime Minister gathered can have valuable civil and and Senior Adviser to the Deputy scientific applications. The reliability, Prime Minister and Treasurer. global coverage and near real-time

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 Kazakhstan

Thirteen years of cooperation with the CTBTO

by Kanat Saudabayev, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan

It can definitely be said that during the 13 years of its existence, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) has brought palpable benefits. This means, in particular, the closure of nuclear test sites. Kazakhstan signed the Treaty in 1996, only a few days after it had been opened for signature, and has remained one of its most steadfast supporters ever since. There is a background to Kazakhstan's firm devotion to CTBT, which explains why our country could not and cannot act in any other way. »The CTBT is one of Kazakhstan's commitment to a nuclear-weapon- the key free world instruments On 29 August 1991, President Nursultan in the area of Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan issued a international decree closing the Semipalatinsk nuclear testing site, the second largest in the security.« world. The Soviet Union carried out over 450 nuclear weapons tests at the site between 1949 and 1989, affecting over 1.5 million people.

This decision was followed by the voluntary renunciation of the fourth largest nuclear missile arsenal in the world, which Kazakhstan inherited from the Soviet Union. Since independence, Kazakhstan has also eliminated the infrastructure of the old test site and is actively and systematically

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 Photo: Kirsten Haupt

Semipalatinsk, Kazakhstan The former Soviet Union nuclear test site is pockmarked with craters, remnants of over 450 nuclear weapons tests that were carried out between 1949 and 1989. 1 2

CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 promoting the principles and ideals of nuclear disarmament and seeking »Together, we must persuade to rid the world of the nuclear threat. Over the last year, Kazakhstan has the nine countries that have further demonstrated its commitment either not signed at all or have to nuclear non-proliferation. In March 2009, Kazakhstan and the countries of not ratified the Treaty, and Central Asia made a crucial contribution to the implementation of the Nuclear without whose participation it Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the CTBT when the Treaty on a Nuclear- is not fully effective, to do so.« Weapon-Free Zone in Central Asia entered into force. The special feature of this zone is that it lies between international security. We confirm the test site available for this purpose two major nuclear powers. The zone value of participation in the Treaty and since it has retained numerous special could play a significant practical role in are ready to provide assistance to other features from its history of nuclear preventing the uncontrolled proliferation countries with those basic aspects of the tests, which have contributed to the of nuclear materials and combating work of the Preparatory Commission for success of the exercises. nuclear terrorism. the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), from Largest on-site In April 2009, President which we ourselves have gained inspection exercise ever Nazarbayev announced Kazakhstan's invaluable experience. conducted by the CTBTO readiness to consider the possibility of the deployment on our territory Five monitoring stations, Of particular importance was the of an international nuclear fuel certified in accordance with all the large-scale Integrated Field Exercise 2008 bank, controlled by the International CTBTO's technical requirements, have - IFE08 - conducted at the Semipalatinsk Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the been established in the territory of nuclear test site in 2008. IFE08 was a establishment of which could be a Kazakhstan, and are operational under huge logistical undertaking involving decisive step towards strengthening the the International Monitoring System the transportation of 200 participants, non-proliferation regime. (IMS). Data are transmitted directly to including 47 inspectors and almost 50 the International Data Centre and to the tonnes of equipment, from Vienna to Most recently in December 2009, newly established Kazakhstan National Kazakhstan. It produced unprecedented the United Nations General Assembly Data Centre. Moreover, in support of the results. For the international community, adopted a resolution proclaiming 29 Treaty and under an agreement with the it was a unique opportunity to try August the International Day against United States, two seismic arrays have out, on a multilateral basis, most of Nuclear Tests, which was an initiative been set up in western and southern the main elements of the inspection of Kazakhstan. The date has a deep Kazakhstan. An additional eight stations system within a short space of time, symbolic significance. It was on that day have been restored and modernized under real conditions. Kazakhstan also in 1949 that the first nuclear weapons and are now operational, including the gained considerable experience, which test was carried out at the Semipalatinsk unique large-aperture seismic array in will be used in conducting further field site and also on that day in 1991 that the Borovoe, central Kazakhstan. exercises and resolving problems relating site was closed down forever. Our hope to the assessment of the safety of the is that on this day, activities will take The monitoring system set up in Semipalatinsk site. place all over the world to remind the Kazakhstan in support of the CTBT made international community of the terrible a significant contribution in identifying The implementation of CTBTO consequences of nuclear testing and and assessing the nuclear tests carried projects provides an opportunity to calling on it not to allow any resumption out by the Democratic People's Republic use the infrastructure of the former of nuclear tests in the future. of Korea in 2006 and 2009, as well as for Semipalatinsk nuclear test site to both regional and long-range natural and promote international peace and Political and technical man-made events. security. The Semipalatinsk site is support for the CTBT becoming increasingly popular with In cooperation with the CTBTO, observers from various countries since Since it opened for signature, the four field experiments for on-site it offers them the opportunity to CTBT has enjoyed strong support, inspections have also been carried participate in or attend experiments and both politically and practically, from out in Kazakhstan: in 1999, 2002, programmes carried out at the site. It Kazakhstan, which considers it one 2005 and 2008. Kazakhstan made the is our hope that this cooperation with of the key instruments in the area of territory of the Semipalatinsk nuclear the CTBTO will continue through the

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 development of a methodology for the President of the United States of commitments made by the OSCE on the on-site inspections and research into America, Barack Obama, to give new non-proliferation of weapons of mass inspection equipment. The CTBTO can impetus to the process and submit the destruction, set out in the Ministerial and must improve the effectiveness of Treaty to the Senate for ratification Declaration on Non-Proliferation its operations still further. provide a good example for others. adopted in Athens in 2009. We hope that this step will meet with We have helped promote the success in the near future. As a country that has itself Treaty through five international suffered the horrors of nuclear tests, conferences entitled "Monitoring of Kazakhstan is a strong proponent closed the world's second biggest nuclear tests and their consequences". of initiatives designed to rid the world nuclear test site and voluntarily These conferences, which have taken of nuclear weapons and in June 2009, renounced the world's fourth largest place in central Kazakhstan, have been President Nazarbayev spoke out in nuclear arsenal, Kazakhstan has the full instrumental in providing scientists favour of drawing up a new universal moral right to seek more decisive action and specialists from various countries treaty on general horizontal and on disarmament and a fundamental and international organizations with vertical non-proliferation of nuclear strengthening of the non-proliferation the opportunity to further the interests weapons involving both nuclear and regime. And it is our belief that the most of the CTBT by discussing, on an non-nuclear States. effective action would be the speedy operational and systematic basis, current entry into force of the Comprehensive technical and scientific problems relating We welcome the global summit Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. to the monitoring of nuclear tests. on nuclear security to be held in Washington in April 2010. We hope that Promoting CTBT participating countries like Kazakhstan Biographical note universality will have the opportunity to discuss Kanat Saudabayev many questions on the international began his career as a diplomat in 1991, We, for our part, are also prepared to agenda on non-proliferation and take prior to which he had a long career in work intensively to promote the Treaty's practical steps towards our common the fields of government and the arts. entry into force as quickly as possible. goal – the creation of a world free from Between 1992 and 2007, he served as A key issue for the viability of the IMS nuclear weapons. Ambassador of the Republic of Kazakhstan to Turkey, the UK, and the is to make the Treaty truly universal. USA, respectively. In May 2007, Mr. Together, we must persuade the nine This year, Kazakhstan is chairing Saudabayev was appointed Secretary countries that have either not signed the Organization for Security and of State of the Republic of at all or have not ratified the Treaty, Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). In that Kazakhstan, and in September 2009 and without whose participation it is capacity, too, we are determined to also became the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan. not fully effective, to do so. Against do everything in our power to ensure that background, the endeavours of the practical implementation of the

Seismic Station PS23: Makanchi, Kazakhstan.

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 Mexico Our longstanding

by Patricia Espinosa Cantellano support for the CTBT Secretary of Foreign Relations of Mexico

After the nuclear annihilation of disarmament comes as no accident. Mexico's longstanding Hiroshima and Nagasaki on 6 and 9 The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 at the support for the CTBT August 1945 respectively, the world height of the Cold War occurred very was confronted with the need for a close to our shores, making us realize In 1993, when the Ad Hoc Committee new code of ethics for humanity. The that the threat of non-peaceful uses of the Conference on Disarmament atomic bombs dropped on Japan in 1945 of nuclear power had no borders, legal on the Prohibition of Nuclear demonstrated the horrific cruelty and limits or moral justification. Tests decided to continue its work devastating effect of nuclear power with the mandate to negotiate a when it is used for such destructive Nuclear-weapon-free Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban purposes. Regrettably, the subsequent zone established Treaty (CTBT), Mexico was one Cold War and the conflict between the in Latin America of its main proponents. In 1994, superpowers meant that nuclear power Ambassador Miguel Marin Bosh of continued to be used for weapons rather The promotion of a treaty establishing Mexico presided over the work of the than for peaceful applications. Latin America as a nuclear-weapon- committee. Ambassador Antonio de free zone was, in fact, the by-product Icaza was subsequently appointed Cuban Missile Crisis and of the Cuban Missile Crisis. The main "Friend of the Chair" during the CTBT the threat of nuclear war purpose of the Treaty of Tlatelolco, negotiations to define the formula for which entered into force in April 1969, the Treaty's entry into force. The Cold War was a period in history is to shield the region and its people during which world powers struggled from a deliberate nuclear attack. Finally in 1996, after two years for military superiority and political Despite this "safeguard", my country of intense negotiations, the CTBT was influence, pushing humankind to the acknowledged that it was not enough. adopted and opened for signature in brink of extinction. In this sense, A nuclear confrontation anywhere September of that year. Mexico was one Mexico's longstanding commitment will definitely have devastating of the 71 States which signed the Treaty to non-proliferation and nuclear repercussions worldwide. on 24 September 1996, subsequently

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 Hydroacoustic station: HA06 is located on Isla Socorro which is a 132 km² volcanic island in the Revillagigedo Islands, off Mexico's western coast. HA06 covers large parts of the North Pacific Ocean.

ratifying on 5 October 1999. The main CTBT helps ensure Promoting the Treaty's objective of the Treaty is to ensure the survival of humanity entry into force total and worldwide prohibition of all nuclear tests, be it civil, military or Unfortunately, the CTBT has not As a testimony of the importance Mexico any other kind. The CTBT bans testing entered into force, partly due to its attaches to the Treaty, my country, in all types of environments, with no non-compatibility with the military together with Australia and New Zealand, limitation on duration. interests of a few countries. Nonetheless, presents a resolution proposal aimed at it represents a milestone in the efforts promoting the Treaty's entry into force In order to ensure compliance of humankind to advance towards peace every year at the United Nations General with the Treaty, provisions have and international security and, above Assembly First Commission. Since 2002, been made for the establishment of all, to ensure the survival of humanity Mexico has also participated actively in a verification regime. This includes through the elimination of nuclear tests. the ministerial meetings to promote the an international monitoring system The CTBT also helps to prevent the Treaty's entry into force that take place capable of detecting nuclear explosions design, development, or modernization on the margins of the United Nations anywhere on the planet, as well as of nuclear weapons. Mexico regrets General Assembly sessions during the providing for on-site inspections once that several States have not yet signed years in which Conferences to Facilitate the Treaty enters into force. or ratified the Treaty, which is why my the Entry into Force of the CTBT (Article country stresses the vital importance and XIV conferences) are not held. Mexico The International Monitoring urgency of signature and ratification, has also participated in every Article XIV System (IMS) has already proven without delay and without conditions, conference since 1999. Various activities its capability of detecting nuclear to achieve the earliest entry into force of have been carried out at the regional tests while also demonstrating the the CTBT. It also calls upon all States to level to promote the Treaty, including a benefits of using its network of support it and promote the development seminar organized by Mexico and Canada stations for civil applications in the and operation of the IMS and, for the Caribbean region in October case of disaster mitigation, such as pending entry into force, to maintain a 2006. The event allowed participants early tsunami warnings. moratorium on nuclear tests. to exchange experiences regarding

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 »The IMS has already proven its capability of detecting nuclear tests while also demonstrating the benefits of using its network of stations for civil applications in the case of disaster mitigation, such as early tsunami warnings.« Radionuclide Station RN44, which has recently been constructed at Guerrero Negro, Mexico.

the Treaty's signature and ratification Commission for the Comprehensive and aggressive" ratification of the process, the operation of the National Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization Treaty by the U.S. Senate. Data Centres in the region and the (CTBTO) in Vienna. installation of the IMS stations. As a non-nuclear weapon State, We expect the radionuclide we have the right to demand that Mexico also participated in the station located in Guerrero Negro to those States listed in Annex 2 which CTBT Workshop on Cooperation which be certified shortly so that it can also have not yet ratified the Treaty drop took place in the Bahamas in November start transmitting data to Vienna. their objections, since the right of the 2007, and in the Regional Ministerial Furthermore, Mexico and the CTBTO majority of the international community Meeting to promote the CTBT, which will soon sign a Facility Agreement for to ensure peace and international was held in Costa Rica in September the stations in Mexico's territory. security through disarmament cannot 2008. Both activities aimed at promoting be ignored |by only a few. signatures and ratifications of the Treaty. Significance of President Given that only four Latin American Obama's Prague speech Ratification by the Annex 2 States still have to sign or ratify1, it States represents a solid political sign proves that political will can help ensure The reappearance of nuclear of strict adhesion to disarmament on the universality of this instrument. disarmament on the international the part of the nuclear community. agenda is now being observed again Mexico hosts five after several years of discouragement IMS stations and frustration. Mexico hopes that, Biographical note given the current situation, the States Likewise, my country contributes to included in Annex 2 of the CTBT, Patricia Espinosa Cantellano the IMS through the installation and which have not yet ratified and must is a career diplomat who was certification of monitoring stations, do so before it can enter into force, appointed Secretary of Foreign Relations of Mexico in 2006. From which are foreseen in the Treaty. Three will reflect on their positions and 2002 to 2006 she served as Mexico's seismic and one hydroacoustic station ratify it as soon as possible. Ambassador to Austria and Permanent are now fully operational and sending Representative to the International data in real time to the International It is against this backdrop that Organizations in Vienna and from 2001 Data Centre of the Preparatory President Barack Obama's speech to 2002 as Mexico's Ambassador to Germany. In 2005, while in Vienna, delivered in Prague in April 2009 is Ms. Espinosa served as Chair of the  particularly significant and keeps CTBTO's subsidiary body that deals [1] Editor's Note: with budgetary and administrative The only countries in the region that have not alive the hopes of the CTBT's early yet signed the Treaty are Cuba and Dominica, entry into force by affirming that his matters. while Guatemala and Trinidad and Tobago have yet to ratify. administration will pursue "immediate

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 Interview Ambassador Stephen Ledogar

talks to Annika Thunborg, Head of Public Information at the CTBTO

New York, November 2009

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 Friday, March 8, 1996: U.S. Ambassador to the Conference on Disarmament, Stephen Ledogar, talking about the CTBT to the press at the Palais des Nations, Geneva, Switzerland. (AP Photo/Beatrix Stampfli)

You have had a very distinguished career that would say which countries were What about the three de facto in the U.S. military and Foreign Service essential to the Treaty. This problem nuclear weapon possessors: India, and you were also a chief negotiator of a was exacerbated by the time pressures Israel and Pakistan? number of key arms control treaties of trying to get everything finished for including the Comprehensive Nuclear- the UN General Assembly in New York You would need to exert heavy Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). where the Treaty was to be adopted. The political pressure on them but I think solution that we came up with, while it they would fall in line with the five It is now 13 years since those negotiations was approved and signed, doesn't work nuclear weapon States. were completed. What is your view of the very well. It is, as you know, a list of Treaty today? countries known as the Annex 2 States, You have defended other provisions of that, as of a certain date, had a particular the Treaty on several occasions. In I am disappointed that the Treaty hasn't kind of nuclear reactor for research and particular, you have said that the entered into force yet. One of the development. They must all ratify the verification regime, to a large extent, conditions for the CTBT being signed was CTBT before it can enter into force. reflected the U.S. position and the final a complete moratorium on all testing on result resembled what the U.S. would the part of all countries participating in Do you think it would have been possible have wanted. the negotiations. Unfortunately, many of to have created a different entry into those who participated in the negotiations force clause? Yes, I think the United States had in 1996 figured that since mutual an important influence, particularly moratoria were already in place, we didn't It's really a shame that there was such on certain issues. We had a lot of need to focus on the test-ban anymore time pressure. Things might have been experience in bilateral negotiations but should move on to the next item. They different if we'd realized that the entry in designing verification programmes didn't recognize the important advantage into force requirement was an invitation with the Soviet Union. There was the that we would have had in terms of to certain countries to take the whole SALT, the START and the ABM treaty. stability and additional security if the Treaty hostage. obligations that are now being honoured were part of international law, as they will be when the Treaty enters into force. »With the CTBT now firmly back on the U.S. political agenda, the implications of I am also very disappointed with the entry into force paragraph, which was ratification are greater than ever. Approval one of the last items we dealt with during by the Senate will act as a catalyst the negotiations. The basic problem was that, on the one hand, you had the for remaining Annex 2 States such as five confessed nuclear powers – China, China and Indonesia to ratify, as well as France, Russia, the United Kingdom and providing the United States with greater the United States – who were identified as such in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation leverage over countries of concern.« Treaty (NPT) and were also the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (P5). And then there were One possibility would have been to A lot of people didn't appreciate the neutral and non-aligned countries stipulate, as we did in the Chemical that the P5 were holding confidential who were particularly concerned that Weapons Convention (CWC), that the meetings outside the Conference on India, Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea CTBT would enter into force once the Disarmament negotiations. During the should not be named as ones that were 65th Member State had deposited its last few months of the negotiations, essential to the agreement. They were instruments of ratification. The five the P5 worked almost full-time on the afraid that this would reward them for nuclear weapon States would all need to question of what we would be permitted bad behaviour on other obligations. But ratify because the Treaty wouldn't work to do once the Treaty had been signed. we had to find some sort of collective without their participation. Obviously, we were not destroying our

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 »I think the CTBT should stand on its own and that stockpiles so we agreed that we would not like the word "zero" and that they be able to keep them safe and secure should be had embraced a treaty with no threshold and make sure they remained reliable whatsoever. And the fact is that the and so forth, right down to the issue of done as soon Russians, as well as the other four nuclear testing the weapons. We finally reached weapon States, did commit themselves the border line and could not agree on as possible.« to the Treaty text. This is substantiated very low-yield tests. by the record of the negotiations at Why was it problematic to use almost any level of technicality (and Back in the 1950s in the time of the word "zero"? national security classification). It is also Eisenhower, the United States wanted substantiated by the public record of a moratorium. But we also wanted to Because the Russians said that while statements by high level Russian officials continue certain programmes because the United States were pushing for a as their position on the question of we were in the process of developing "zero" threshold, they really meant four thresholds evolved and fell into line with new generations of nuclear weapons pounds. So the Russians were absolutely the consensus that emerged. for Cold War purposes. The internal adamant they would never use the word U.S. threshold was worked down to "zero". They took it out of the text. Whether any of the five are no more than four pounds of TNT Instead, Article 1 of the Treaty prohibits cheating or not is a different question. equivalent yield: that's about the each State Party from carrying out any And the question is, is it militarily size of a hand grenade. After a short nuclear weapon test explosion or any significant? The 2002 National Academy chain reaction, the bomb just fizzles other nuclear explosion. of Sciences report on Technical Issues out because you don't have enough Related to the Comprehensive Nuclear electrons to start the multiplication of The U.S. administration at that Test Ban Treaty concluded: "Very little of a chain reaction. Later on during the time realized that we'd be better off the benefit of a scrupulously observed negotiations, we tried to sell that to with a comprehensive ban on nuclear CTBT regime would be lost in the the other four permanent members of testing and it was on that basis that case of clandestine testing within the the UN Security Council but because we deployed the new initiative to go considerable constraints imposed by the they were not as sophisticated or as to "zero". Actually, it was easy enough available monitoring capabilities. Those experienced as we were in the very because we were just agreeing with countries that are best able to successfully low-yield experiments, they argued the majority who wanted a simple, conduct such clandestine testing already that they needed a higher threshold in definable threshold, and things moved possess advanced nuclear weapons of a order to gain any useful data. As far as very rapidly from then on. number of types and could add little, with I remember, the Soviet Union wanted additional testing, to the threats they a threshold of 10 tons and the highest Some of the critics of the Treaty argue already pose or can pose to the United threshold request was France, which that because there is no definition, States. Countries of lesser nuclear test wanted a limit of 300 tons, probably this is open to interpretation. experience and design sophistication because they had an on-going testing would be unable to conceal tests in the programme at Mururoa. That's wrong. During my testimony in numbers and yields required to master favour of ratification before the Senate nuclear weapons more advanced than We probably wasted six months Foreign Relations Committee in 1999, the ones they could develop and deploy over the threshold question until I explained that the CTBT, as its name without any testing at all." August 1995, when President Clinton suggests, imposes a comprehensive ban announced that the United States was on all nuclear explosions, of any size, With the proper expenditure of revising its position: from then on, the in any place. Some critics of the Treaty time, money, intellect and so forth, you United States went for a "zero" yield. sought to cast doubt on whether Russia, can design a verification programme that And finally, the French and Chinese during the negotiation and signing of gives you a high probability of being stopped testing. The trouble was that the Treaty, committed itself under treaty able to detect any militarily significant the word "zero" had already appeared law to a truly comprehensive prohibition cheating. I think that the Preparatory in the rolling text and the Australian of any nuclear explosion, including an Commission for the Comprehensive draft proposal, which was the "zero" explosion/experiment/event of even the Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization text and actually, it is the scope of the slightest nuclear yield. The chief Russian (CTBTO) has perfected its verification paragraph of the Australian text which negotiator, Grigory Berdennikov, is even regime to a large extent. As it becomes is in the Treaty today. on record as saying that the Russians did more and more precise and the build-up

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 AP Photo/Donald Stampfli. 718 th plenary session of the conference on Disarmament, Geneva, Switzerland, 1995: from left to right: Michael Weston, British Ambassador to the Conference on Disarmament (CD), Wolfgang Hoffmann, German Ambassador to the CD, and Stephen Ledogar, US Ambassador to the CD

Biographical note Stephen Ledogar worked for the U.S. Foreign Service from 1959 to 1997. He served as Deputy Chief of Mission to NATO from 1981 to 1987 and as Head of the U.S. Delegation to the Conference on Disarmament from 1990 to 1997. He was also the chief negotiator of a number of key arms control treaties including the CTBT. Under Presidents Reagan, Bush and Clinton, Ambassador Ledogar headed U.S. delegations in Vienna and Geneva. Since retiring, he has worked as a consultant to the U.S. Department of State on national security matters.

of the Treaty's International Monitoring An OSI goes ahead unless you mount ratify as well as providing the United System (IMS) approaches completion, a coalition of a certain size to veto it States with greater leverage over it certainly becomes very hard to evade within a certain period of time. In most countries of concern. detection by carrying out a clandestine circumstances, it would be difficult if nuclear test. The interplay of the CTBT's there was evidence that a State Party Just a final question: four major verification capabilities has had reason to be concerned. How can we move towards a nuclear- a synergy of sorts so you can enhance weapon-free world and what role can the your capabilities to the threshold which During your testimony speech you talked CTBT play in helping to achieve that goal? is militarily significant. about the consequences if the United States didn't ratify the Treaty in 1999. I'm much more in favour of working I'd also like to reiterate my All those things actually happened. towards further reductions in position on nuclear deterrence, which nuclear weapons stockpiles than I I believe to be consistent with the That's right. I said there would be was when we were in the middle CTBT. Through a vigorous programme jubilation among our foes and despair of the Cold War, which is probably of what is euphemistically called among our friends. Restraints would understandable. I think we should do "stockpile stewardship", you can loosen on those States with nuclear some serious work with the Russian maintain the reliability and safety of aspirations and our allies would feel Federation about bringing our own your nuclear stockpile for as far into deserted and betrayed. That the NPT stockpiles down from their current the future as you can see. regime would be endangered, and that levels. That's what we're seeing right the world would have to brace itself for now. But you run into problems. It's Another argument used by opponents of more Indian and Pakistani tests. And very expensive to take apart and the Treaty is that a country can refuse an China would not ratify the Treaty. dispose of nuclear weapons. Quite on-site inspection. In your 1999 statement, frankly, I don't think that we're going you argued the opposite: that a country With the CTBT now firmly back to get to zero nuclear weapons in cannot refuse an on-site inspection. on the U.S. political agenda, the the world in my lifetime but I think implications of ratification are greater that people should continue working Yes. If I recall, an on-site inspection than ever. Approval by the Senate will towards that goal. I think the CTBT (OSI) needs to be approved by at least act as a catalyst for remaining Annex 2 should stand on its own and that 30 of the 51-member Executive Council. States such as China and Indonesia to should be done as soon as possible.

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 Status of certified IMS Facilities as of 6 April 2010

New Google Map Features

A number of new interactive features have recently been added to all the world maps on our website, including:

Timelines on different historical aspects of the CTBT and the build-up of its global monitoring system.

Milestone events in the history of nuclear testing.

…and much more!

Visit online: www.ctbto.org/map

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 In Memory Of Boris Kvok Director of the On-Site Inspection Division

Mr. Boris Kvok, Director of the His background as a diplomat, Being a highly valued professional On-Site Inspection (OSI) Division of and in particular his deep expertise in and respected boss, Mr. Kvok also never the Preparatory Commission for the disarmament issues, enabled him quickly forgot to bring in the personal touch to Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban to focus on the strategic questions all his interactions. Boris was a beloved Treaty Organization (CTBTO), passed pertaining to the further development gentleman and a true friend who was away unexpectedly on 12 February of the OSI regime. Under his leadership, highly admired by all in his division and 2010. His untimely departure is one could note a paradigm shift from a within the entire organization. Boris was deeply felt in his division, the technical and scientific perspective to a an extremely popular colleague, leading organization as a whole, and in the holistic and strategic approach. He was his division from a conceptual to a more international non-proliferation and able to blend the technical elements of the practical approach. His endeavours and disarmament community of which Mr. OSI regime with a diplomatic component. zeal for reaching OSI readiness and thus Kvok was an active member. contributing to nuclear disarmament Mr. Kvok worked tirelessly on and eventually to a safer world will Mr. Kvok was born in 1954. highlighting the importance of an not be forgotten, but will serve us as a As a Russian diplomat, he was operationally ready OSI component as motivation to continue the work he has posted to Pakistan (1978-1983), a crucial pillar of the verification regime done so well. to Australia (1987-1990), and of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban later to Geneva at the Permanent Treaty. During his time as a Director of We are confident that as much Mission of the Russian Federation the OSI Division, the CTBTO successfully as Mr. Kvok is remembered for his to the Conference on Disarmament carried out a number of exercises and important work at the CTBTO, he will (1993-1997). He also carried out activities, among them the 2008 Integrated also be remembered for the endearing the function of Deputy Permanent Field Exercise for on-site inspections in friendship and support that he offered Representative of the Russian Kazakhstan. Mr. Kvok's skillful leadership to so many people, inside the profession Federation to the International was crucial in conducting this exercise, and far beyond it. Mr. Kvok was simply Organizations in Vienna (2001- which was a milestone in moving forward. a wonderful human being, a man who 2004), before joining the CTBTO His vision was clearly focused on reaching had a deep and open curiosity about as the Director of the On-Site OSI readiness at entry into force of the everything and everyone he met Inspection Division in August 2004. Treaty – this was his main quest. everywhere in the world.

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 Verification Science Main lessons Photo: Kirsten Haupt from the Integrated Field Exercise 2008

by John R. Walker

Deployment of a seismometer during the Integrated Field Exercise 2008 in Kazakhstan.

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 »A credible OSI capability In spring 1962, as the newly established Eighteen Nation Disarmament Committee will be a key component of started work, President John Kennedy wrote to his friend and colleague the CTBT's verification regime Harold Macmillan, then British Prime once the Treaty has entered Minister and a staunch advocate of a Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty into force, and will serve as (CTBT). One of the main problems facing the negotiators was how to deal a deterrent to cheating. « with large numbers of uncertain seismic events that would be detected by the then envisaged monitoring system. Kennedy told Macmillan: "No matter how we arrange to detect the former Soviet nuclear test site at equipment, to potentially remote and seismic events that might or might not be Semipalatinsk, Kazakhstan, was by far climatically hostile locations. nuclear explosions, the only way we can the most ambitious and largest CTBT always verify the proposition that a given OSI ever conducted. It involved nearly Inspectors may use several event is not a nuclear explosion is by on 50 tonnes of equipment and around 200 techniques, such as visual observation and the spot inspection." personnel and generated a vast quantity gamma radiation detection for detecting of information. This article highlights the residual radioactive contamination, which Forty-eight years later that main lessons, future priorities and action is needed to help inspectors narrow statement remains as valid as it was in being taken by the CTBTO's OSI Division down the search area. Overall it is the 1962. Although the early years of CTBT to implement them. effective and sustained integration of negotiations in the late 1950s and early these techniques that is critical for a 1960s witnessed a considerable amount The role of an OSI successful inspection. The IFE08 therefore of experimental work on seismological sought to test how key OSI techniques and other means of detecting nuclear A credible OSI capability will be a key could be implemented in an integrated explosions, nothing equivalent was component of the CTBT's verification manner. In CTBT OSIs, it is the synergy done for on-site inspections. For this regime once the Treaty has entered into of these techniques that provide the we had to wait until the establishment force, and will serve as a deterrent to system's strength; if they are applied of the Preparatory Commission for the cheating. We need to build up a cadre of disjointedly with no attempt to integrate Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty well-trained and motivated inspectors the information gathered, then an Organization (CTBTO) in 1996, which with the right balance of experience inspection's utility is limited. In addition, has since conducted a large number and expertise across a diverse range its prospects of establishing whether the of field exercises. These have yielded of scientific and other disciplines. We suspect event in question was a nuclear practical insights into how to plan, need robust and reliable equipment that explosion conducted in breach of the mount and conduct an effective on-site is fit for purpose. And finally, we need Treaty's Article I , which bans all nuclear inspection (OSI). The Integrated Field logistical support to enable inspectors test explosions and any other nuclear Exercise 2008 (IFE08), carried out at to be deployed quickly, along with their explosion, correspondingly diminishes.

Noble Gas Sampling: Testing noble gas sampling equipment during the Noble Gas Field Operation Test, Slovakia, October 2009. Photo: Kirsten Haupt

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 Testing Noble Gas detection Procedures Inspectors drilling a hole to extract air from the ground to be examined for traces of the radioactive noble gas, Argon.

IFE08: some main points

IFE08 provided some 880 lessons covering a wide range of issues – from matters such as planning and scenarios for future exercises; radiation monitoring; the Seismic Aftershocks Monitoring System; overflights; negotiating and leadership; equipment specifications; design and operation of the Field Information Management System (FIMS) – the computer system used by inspectors to hold, process and present inspection data gathered in the field; size and composition of an inspected State Party's escort team; geophysical surveys; sampling strategies; design and operation of the radionuclide laboratory; logistical support; documentation; health and safety; and media handling. In the subsequent review and evaluation process, we found that in some areas good progress had been made, but in other areas much more is required to bring capabilities up to a higher standard. The Seismic Aftershock Monitoring System worked well and provided valuable data for the inspectors – this is one of the key techniques employed by inspectors in Photo: Kirsten Haupt the early stages of an OSI. Deployment of the seismometers and the testing some of the Treaty's inspection OSI Operational Manual subsequent data processing all provisions, could have been performed satisfactorily. better developed. The CTBTO's OSI Operational Manual, when finalized, will contain detailed One of the problems in many As the Duke of Wellington guidance for the future CTBTO, arms control verification exercises is remarked later in life on his first inspectors and an inspected State realistically simulating features and campaign, "At least I learned what not Party on the preparations for, planning signatures that would be indicative of to do, and that is always a valuable and conduct of an inspection. One of non-compliance – especially in a CTBT lesson." The whole point of exercises is IFE08's main objectives was to test OSI exercise; or sufficiently anomalous to establish what remains to be done a version of the Operational Manual to attract inspectors' attention. A key and where weaknesses lie so that they specifically prepared for the exercise. lesson from IFE08 for the design of might be overcome. The CTBTO's OSI This was to facilitate further elaboration future comparable exercises is the Division has an Action Plan in place to of the draft OSI Operational Manual need to develop more plausible and implement these lessons and to move to be adopted by the first Conference technically credible "artificialities". forward the level of operational readiness. of States Parties after entry into force Some of those created for IFE08, Pressing ahead with this Action Plan is of the Treaty. IFE08 showed that much although providing a useful prop for now a key priority for the CTBTO. of the Test Manual worked reasonably

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 The Final Stage of IFE08 John Walker [right] during the discussions of the final reporting document at IFE08.

Photo: Kirsten Haupt

well, but that more work is required on Work is also needed on Even here we should not some issues, such as definitions of what multispectral imaging so that it might be forget that during IFE08, a constitutes the initial overflight. included in the next large scale exercise. surrogate inspection team did work More thought is necessary on the professionally and managed to Future work characterization of underground apply many of the OSI techniques nuclear explosion signatures to assist specified in the Treaty in an IFE08 did not address all aspects of further operationalization of some inspection area of 1,000 km2 in the OSI regime. Some techniques OSI techniques weather and working conditions (multispectral imaging, radioactive that at times were harsh. xenon sampling and analysis, active The International Scientific Studies seismometry, gravimetry – a technique conference in Vienna in June 2009 – a This was a success in itself and that measures relative variations in series of independent scientific studies one which bodes well for future the Earth's gravitational field – and and assessments to address the readiness work and future such large scale drilling) and issues (off-site sample and capability of the CTBT to detect field exercises. analysis and requesting State observer) nuclear explosions worldwide – included were excluded. This was largely for a large number of poster presentations financial reasons and because some on the technologies behind the OSI capabilities have not yet been fully techniques discussed here. It is clear that developed for OSI purposes. Insufficient there has been significant progress in time, too, was available for a fuller recent years, which will need to be taken Biographical note testing of the geophysical techniques into account as the CTBTO completes its JOHN WALKER such as magnetometry and resistivity work on building an OSI capability. has worked in the Arms Control and (an intrinsic property of a material Disarmament Research Unit at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, which resists the flow of an electrical OSI readiness UK, since March 1985. He covers CTBT current within the material). A priority on-site inspection (OSI) issues as well area for further development is field A key step is to develop a sense of what as the Chemical Weapons Convention radioactive xenon sampling and analysis. constitutes an OSI operational capability and the Biological and Toxin Weapons Identification of radioactive xenon is a for the future CTBTO after the Treaty's Convention. Dr Walker headed the surrogate inspected State Party team strong indicator that a nuclear explosion entry into force. In this context it is in the Integrated Field Exercise 2008. has taken place. reasonable to note that IFE08 itself He has participated in some 60 OSI represented, for all its limitations, a sort exercises at numerous nuclear, Further progress was made here of basic capability, albeit one where chemical, biological and defence after the Noble Gas Field Operation Test much more work is needed to improve facilities since 1989. in Slovakia in October 2009. the performance of an inspection team.

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 Capacity Building Reading the waves: How the CTBTO

strengthens a nuclear explosion. The CTBTO helps to train station operators for exactly its monitoring system that purpose. In January 2010 for example, a course took place in Paris, with knowledge training radionuclide station operators to perform the repairs necessary during by Kirstie Gregorich Hansen the operation of a SPALAX Noble Gas Detector System, designed to pick up Each day Esmeralda Banganan scrutinizes big players that decide whether we are radioactivity in the air. hundreds of waveforms that come in from dealing with a nuclear explosion or not. around the world. She's part of a team of It is important when the Treaty has Preparing for 20 top notch analysts who work at the entered into force that countries that are the Future International Data Centre (IDC) at the not nuclear powers know if someone is Vienna headquarters of the Preparatory breaching the Treaty and conducting a The targeted training the CTBTO Commission for the Comprehensive nuclear test explosion. provides is not just about the here Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization and now. It's helping Member States (CTBTO). Where the average person Instead of having one country to prepare for the future, the day the sees squiggles on a page, Esmeralda sees saying 'I have the proof', we want all Treaty will enter into force. Each year volcano rumblings or a mine blast from countries to have the knowledge to be future inspection teams are groomed 10,000 km away, as she applies filters able to affirm if it was, or was not, a in preparation for on-site inspections to screen out such "noise" and look for nuclear test," Zerbo said. by taking part in on-site technical telltale signs of nuclear explosions. workshops and training activities. One popular support tool in the Since its inception, the CTBTO CTBTO's educational kit is the 'NDC-in-a Information Exchange has helped thousands of people to box', a special software package to help develop skills like Esmeralda's – by users receive and analyze data. The Achieving entry into force and training staff working at National Data CTBTO is helping its Member States to universalization of the Treaty is a key Centres (NDC) across the globe to better use and install the software worldwide. driving force at the CTBTO. Around understand and monitor their data and, 25 workshops with the dual aim of as importantly, to interpret the analyzed A Well-Oiled increasing the number of signatures information that flows back to them Verification Regime and ratifications and achieving the from Vienna. In short, to put meaning to build-up of the verification regime have those squiggles, and give NDC staff the It is said that ‘capacity building' is the taken place since 1996, when the Treaty expertise to decide if a detected event essential lubricant of international opened for signature. Part of their aim was a nuclear explosion. development. That is certainly the case is to encourage States to share and for keeping the CTBT's monitoring system learn from each other's experiences in "We want to reach a stage running smoothly. When complete it will establishing and operating the stations. where even countries that don't have comprise 321 monitoring stations and 16 monitoring stations are able to receive laboratories, many of them built in remote "To try to get more developing and understand what Comprehensive locations – from tiny islands, to blazing countries buying into the Treaty, we Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) deserts or forested Alps. Those working need to give them something that data is all about," Lassina Zerbo the on the ground need to be equipped with interests them," Zerbo said. That Director of the IDC said. the skills to maintain the stations. The has involved a restructuring of the more stations transmitting data to Vienna workshops to include ways that the "It is important for the legitimacy on a daily basis, the stronger and wider CTBT data can also be used for civil of the Treaty that it is not only the the detection net to catch any signals of and scientific applications.

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 Lead Waveform Analyst Member of the Monitoring and Data Analysis team Ezekiel Jonathan analyzes data recieved from IMS stations around the world

The possibilities of establishing tsunami early warning systems for the African and Caribbean regions for example, were discussed at workshops in Namibia, the Dominican Republic and Photo: Todd Vincent Mexico in 2009.

Other possibilities include assistance for natural disaster mitigation, FAST FACTS like volcanic eruptions or earthquake monitoring, or even environmental CTBTO's Capacity monitoring to study isotopes of Building Activities radionuclides that could affect the population's health.

Who can benefit? Using the Web for • Monitoring station operators E-Learning • national Data Centre operators • inspection teams in preparation for on-site inspections The learning doesn't stop when the workshops and hands-on-training cease. What's provided? Through e-learning, the CTBTO provides • Technical support Member States with 24-hour access to • hands on training and workshops internet based lectures and tutorials • hardware, software, including the ‘NDC-in-a box' covering a wide range of verification- to receive and help analyze data. related topics. The project was initiated • workshops to promote the universalization with European Union funding. of the Treaty and the build-up of the verification regime. Comprehensive e-learning modules are • ongoing training via e-learning made available in each of the six official United Nations languages. What was the impact in 2009? • over 400 participants involved For more information on upcoming in 20 plus workshops and training activities. training opportunities visit: • one hundred NDC staff trained through www.ctbto.org development workshops and advanced capacity building training programmes. • nine capacity building systems (computer hardware Biographical note and equipment) delivered to NDCs. • Ten scientists, mainly from developing countries trained Kirstie Gregorich Hansen for three months at the IDC in how to utilize data worked as a journalist before from Vienna. In turn they provide the CTBTO joining the International Atomic with an international pool of analysts. Energy Agency (IAEA) in 2002. She • Three training activities for surrogate inspectors worked in the press office and news and information section at the and diplomats to prepare for on-site inspections IAEA for seven and a half years. as well as one technical workshop, one field exercise She joined the CTBTO Public and two field operational tests. Information team in February 2010.

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 Putting down its digital feet A CTBTO project offers Member States the keys to better use its knowledge Infrasound Station IS32 Training at the By Peter infrasound station in Rickwood Nairobi, Kenya

An automated global monitoring system when a tsunami created by a powerful use of IMS data. Under the terms upholds the Comprehensive Nuclear- earthquake roared ashore. of the CTBT, the 182 countries that Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) by verifying have signed it have access to all the the absence of nuclear explosions. As The Lali's loud drumming is data provided by its four monitoring the Preparatory Commission for the among the warning signals employed technologies – seismic, hydroacoustic, Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty by Samoa, together with the pealing infrasound and radionuclide. Organization (CTBTO) expands its of church bells, radio and television monitoring system, it is assisting more alerts, and text messaging to warn of However, another Treaty people develop the skills to make better impending danger from the sea. requirement is that although the Vienna- use of the information it provides. based organization provides reviews Samoa hosts one IMS auxiliary of the 10 gigabytes of information that In the South Pacific islands of seismic monitoring facility, which currently flow into its headquarters Samoa, Siosinamele Lui is seeking ways transmits data to the CTBTO's by satellite from over 250 monitoring to complement the digital output of International Data Centre (IDC) in facilities every day, it is up to its Member the CTBTO's International Monitoring Vienna. But the islands don't possess States to pass the final judgement. System (IMS) with the Lali drum, a the capability to make use of the data it large traditional instrument made from provides, said Lui, a technical officer in Nine countries the trunk of a tree. the Meteorology Division of the Samoan represented in Ministry of Natural Resources and technical project Tsunami wreaks havoc Environment and responsible for CTBT on Samoan islands data communications and equipment Last year Lui was invited to represent maintenance for Samoa. Samoa at a technical meeting at the The Samoan islands lie less than 200 km CTBTO's Vienna headquarters as north of the Tonga Trench, a subduction Samoa to make better use part of a project. The project was zone where the Pacific and Australian of CTBT monitoring data launched in early 2007 to enable plates collide and create one of the experts from developing countries to deepest undersea canyons on Earth. That's about to change and a pillar of attend technical meetings organized In September 2009, 143 Samoans died the Samoan response will be to make by the CTBTO.

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 Meeting with three Open to CTBTO Member States, of the project's nine technical experts now participate technical experts. from left to right from Ethiopia, Kenya, Mexico, Mongolia, Norbert Opiyo-Akech, the Philippines, Samoa, Sri Lanka, Siosinamele Lui, Peter Rickwood, Tunisia and Turkmenistan. Funding Xyoli Pérez-Campos is provided by contributions from 19 countries and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Fund for International Development.

Project offers numerous benefits

Participants gain important professional Photo: Pablo Mehlhorn knowledge about the CTBTO's verification work by attending the meetings, e.g. they learn about the benefits of IDC data and products, Geophysics Institute of the National group concerned with verification including their application for broader Autonomous University of Mexico. issues through the project. In 2008 he civil and scientific purposes. The was appointed a Task Leader for issues experts' home countries are thus able "When I started coming here (in related to NDCs. to make better use of the verification 2008) the relationship started to change. data and products. Participants and [Previously] my institution didn't know Regional workshop to CTBTO technical staff are able to how to approach the CTBTO." be hosted in Kenya exchange views on a range of technical matters, including specific issues related Without the technical expertise, As a result of his participation in the to IMS stations and National Data said Pérez-Campos, Mexico "hadn't paid project, Kenya is now more proactive Centres (NDCs). The experts' input to much attention to technical aspects of and more fully involved in CTBTO its technical meetings is invaluable for the CTBTO – we received documents activities. In May, an NDC evaluation the CTBTO and can assist with plans for and just looked at them and didn't workshop is to be held in Nairobi, national implementation of the Treaty. know their context, the history. Now we Kenya, bringing together emerging comment on them, we are getting more NDCs from the region as well as Lui returned in February 2010 involved in what is going on here [at the including training activities and to a second meeting at the CTBTO, CTBTO's headquarters]." demonstrations from NDC operators in when she spoke to Spectrum. "It is Italy, Germany and Austria. really opening my eyes," she said. There's also been a strengthening "We didn't know we could get this of regional ties as a consequence of her Opiyo-Akech is also a reliable support – products and programmes, involvement, she said. "I hold meetings source of information to whom the It feeds into [the development of] our with Latin American Missions in Vienna public turns in a crisis. When Nairobi own internal structure." and inform them about what is going was affected by tremors associated with on, from the point of view of technical the Oldonyo Lengai volcanic activities in "We had no knowledge about how expertise – what I think is important northern Tanzania in July 2007, he was to set up an NDC," said Lui. "We were and what is not." As well, technical woken up at four in the morning and sending data to Vienna but we didn't experts now have a direct line to later explained the event on national have direct access to our own data. Vienna, she added. television in Kenya. We didn't get it automatically." As point of contact with the Greater involvement at CTBTO for Kenya, which hosts one Biographical note the technical level IMS seismic and one infrasound Peter Rickwood station, Norbert Opiyo Akech said worked for most of his career as a Among other technical experts taking he had remained outside of technical journalist before joining the part in the project is Xyoli Pérez- discussions before joining the project. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as a press officer in 2001 Campos, from Mexico, which hosts But that changed in 2007 when Opiyo- where he worked for eight years. He three auxiliary seismic stations, a Akech, a geologist and then Dean of the has been working in the Public hydroacoustic station and a radionuclide Faculty of Science at the University of Information section of the CTBTO station. Pérez-Campos is a researcher Nairobi and manager of the IMS stations since October 2009. for the Seismology Department at the in Kenya, joined the CTBTO's working

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 Verification science Machine learning by Stuart Russell, Sheila Vaidya for Comprehensive and Ronan Le Bras Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty monitoring

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban and infrasound) connected by a spurious associations via some of these Treaty (CTBT) is gaining renewed worldwide communications network methods. Please see attention in light of growing worldwide to a centralized processing system in www.ctbto.org/specials/ interest in mitigating the risks of nuclear the International Data Centre (IDC) in the-international-scientific-studies- weapons proliferation and testing. Since Vienna. The IDC operates continuously project-iss/ for more information. the Preparatory Commission for the and in real time, performing station Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty processing (analysis and reduction of The second section of the paper Organization (CTBTO) installed the first raw seismic sensor data to detect and proposes a more radical revision of the suite of sensors of the International classify signal arrivals at each station) IDC data processing approach using a Monitoring System (IMS) in the late and network processing (association model-driven Bayesian methodology[1]. 1990s, the IMS network has progressed of signals from different stations that This approach has several potential steadily, providing valuable support have come from the same event). Fully advantages, including globally optimal for event diagnostics. This progress automated processing of the signals to association sets, proper handling of was highlighted at the International produce a reliable catalogue of event non-detections as evidence, improved Scientific Studies (ISS) conference in reports is currently beyond the state-of- low-amplitude signal detection and Vienna in June 2009, where scientists the-art, so the IDC analysts must post- noise rejection, continually self- and experts in the CTBT verification process the output from the automated calibrating sensor models, and optimal technologies met with policy makers to system to generate higher quality event fusion of multiple sensor modalities. assess the current status of the CTBT's bulletins for further distribution. Errors verification system. in automated processing include false We conclude that incorporating detections and missed detections caused machine learning methods into the In this article, we introduce a by station noise; incorrect classification IDC framework could indeed improve few concepts in machine learning and of arrivals; and incorrect associations. the detection and localization of assess techniques that could provide Thus, opportunities exist at all levels low-magnitude events, provide more both incremental and comprehensive of the IDC pipeline to apply techniques confidence in the final output, and value for event detection by increasing from machine learning to improve the reduce the load on human analysts. The the accuracy of the final data product. accuracy of the final output. principal obstacles to rapid instantiation The techniques could also be applied of machine learning methods within to refining on-site inspection (OSI) We begin by explaining the an operational context, however, conclusions, and potentially reducing basic ideas of machine learning, with are the availability of raw data for the cost of future network operations. special emphasis on data-driven and testing during algorithm development model-driven methods. We clarify and the difficulty of evaluating and Machine learning how these methods may be applied to benchmarking the impact of local techniques can help improve the performance of various improve accuracy of parts of the IDC processing pipeline. IDC's final output Multiple teams at the ISS conference presented preliminary results that [1] Bayes' theorem is a formal way of including prior knowledge in assessments of probability. It shows The IMS includes waveform physical demonstrated improvements in phase that evidence has a strong confirming effect if it was sensor stations (seismic, hydroacoustic, classification as well as the rejection of unlikely before being observed.

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 improvements on the overall system. ●● Do the data include the "right In the supervised setting, we assume We outline a programmatic construct for answers" – i.e. correct outputs for that we have a correctly labelled set of overcoming these hurdles by proposing the component given the inputs? data – perhaps obtained from the final to coordinate and drive data-related ●● What knowledge is already »Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB)« [see research and development initiatives available to constrain the design Glossary on p.35] or other authoritative through a virtual Data Exploitation of the component? source. The goal of learning is then to Centre (vDEC), under the auspices of the find a hypothesis h that is close to f CTBTO, for the evolution and evaluation This article examines just two in a precise sense: given a sufficient of next generation data processing families of methods. The first, supervised training set of examples, h should agree methods for CTBT verification. data-driven learning, is appropriate with f on the classification of almost all for cases where data are plentiful and members of a previously unseen test set Basic concepts of correct outputs are available, but little of unlabelled signals. The framework of machine learning is known about the correct design machine learning provides guarantees on of the component(s). The second, the possibility of finding such an h and The field of machine learning covers all Bayesian model-driven learning, is predicts the amount of data necessary computational methods for improving effective in situations when significant to find it. performance based on experience. The prior knowledge is available; it does range of methods and settings is too vast not require advance knowledge of the This seemingly simple task to be sketched here in completeness, correct outputs for each component. encom­passes a large range of activities, but there is a small set of key questions roughly characterized by the nature that must be answered when choosing a Supervised data- of the inputs, outputs, and the family learning method: driven learning of hypotheses considered. Supervised machine learning methods are readily ●● Which component of the overall The key idea here is many hundreds applicable to IDC data sets for assisting system must be improved? of years old: find a hypothesis that the final diagnosis. Such methods were ●● How is that component represented maximizes some combination of illustrated at the ISS conference last – e.g. a weighted linear function, simplicity and explanation of the data. June. Several posters showed the value a complicated decision tree, or an For example, suppose we want to classify of incorporating off-the-shelf learning impenetrable chunk of machine detected seismic signals as »P waves and classification methods to improve code? or S waves« [see Glossary on p.35]. the accuracy of phase identification ●● What existing data are relevant An unknown function f determines in station processing and to detect to that component? the true classification given the signal. spurious events formed during network

P o s t e r i o r D e n s i t y (summing over depth and time)

Figure 1: Display showing preliminary results from the prototype NET-VISA system. White stars indicate true events, yellow stars indicate additional spurious events proposed in SEL3, and red squares show events proposed by our research prototype. The inset shows the posterior event distribution near the Sulawesi coast, Indonesia; the posterior is bimodal due to uncertainty in the association between events and detections.

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 processing. Examples of the benefits [see Glossary] over hypotheses; for the Seismic Analysis – NET-VISA – for from data fusion were plentiful, and CTBT problem, this would include the CTBT verification) is currently under design concepts were presented for natural seismicity distribution on Earth. development with the goals of testing it improving seismic database query The conditional probability distribution within the IDC domain. processing, borrowing ideas from the for the evidence given each possible Web-search environment. Underscoring hypothesis; in our case, this part of the Once data samples – currently, just the importance of machine learning, model describes how signals propagate the IDC arrival detections but eventually the Best Poster award at the conference through the Earth and how they are the full waveforms – are supplied to the went to a team that trained neural detected by sensors, as well as the system, MCMC probabilistically infers networks to identify false events in the ways in which noise signals arise. In a posterior distribution over possible »SEL1 bulletin« [see Glossary]. seismology, this is often called the event locations, times, and magnitudes. forward model. In essence, MCMC efficiently samples However, none of these supervised over hypothetical worlds to obtain learning methods, as currently Bayes' rule simply multiplies estimates that converge to the true conceived, are likely to overcome the these two components together to give posterior given the evidence. The fundamental limitations of bottom-up, the posterior probability distribution fact that MCMC computes posterior localized processing of signals and over the set of hypotheses, given the probabilities – the best possible answers detections. Seismic data analysis on available evidence. Because there are given the data – takes the algorithm a global scale cannot be decomposed infinitely many possible hypotheses itself off the table; to get better into independent local decisions (each a set of seismic events), the answers, one must either improve the about detections and associations; the calculations involved are nontrivial model or add more sensors. ambiguities inherent in the data are best and require efficient inversion of the resolved by a comprehensive analysis forward model. One important benefit of the of the kind offered by integrated vertically integrated approach is that probabilistic inference methods. As a side effect of the inference signals need not be analyzed at each process, the Bayesian approach station in isolation. Suppose that a Moreover, such methods can generates information that can be used hypothetical event has been formed easily integrate the best Earth models to continuously adapt the model to from detections at three other stations, as well as detailed models of sensor better explain the data. This adaptation such that the event's location, time, artifacts and failures, and missing data. requires no »ground truth« [see and magnitude imply an arrival at a Such an approach is discussed in the Glossary] (unlike supervised learning fourth station in a given time window. following sections. methods) and hence provides a technical If a signal is present – even well foundation for continuous self- below the usual signal-to-noise-ratio Bayesian model- calibration and sensor diagnostics. threshold – it can be picked out and driven learning associated with the event. On the other Vertically integrated hand, if no signal is present, the event When there is substantial prior seismic analysis may be disconfirmed by the (absence knowledge available – for example, that of) evidence. The smaller the window, of seismic phases and signal propagation While the current IDC data analysis the more pronounced this effect – this knowledge can improve prediction pipeline is functioning effectively, we will be. Thus, a strong, and thus far accuracy and reduce the amount of data believe that its overall serial nature unexploited, interaction exists between needed for learning. Bayesian methods imposes unnecessary limitations on the accuracy of the travel time model are well-suited to this context. system performance that can be largely and the ability to pick out signals from overcome by a vertically integrated noise at a particular station. In general, Bayesian inference probabilistic approach. Recent advances yields a posterior probability in modelling capabilities and in general- The NET-VISA research prototype distribution over a set of hypotheses purpose inference algorithms such as has been tested on a small two-hour given some evidence. In the CTBT »Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)« segment of parametric data from the setting, a hypothesis might be a [see Glossary] suggest that it is in fact IDC (i.e. above-threshold P-wave collection of seismic events (natural or possible to address problems as complex detections, rather than raw waveforms). man-made) occurring over space and as seismo-acoustic event detection via The segment includes three events that time; the evidence is provided by the a completely integrated, model-based generated three or more arrivals, and the sensor data. The inference process is probabilistic system derived from prototype recovers all three perfectly. In based on a model with two components: first principles. A research prototype comparison, the IDC »SEL3 bulletin« The »prior probability distribution« system (Network Vertically Integrated [see Glossary] includes three additional

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 Glossary events which are not well supported by state-of-the-art in data processing in the evidence (see FIG. 1). On a more coordination with the operational arm Ground truth: Seismoacoustic sources whose location, comprehensive test with a week's worth of the IDC so as to provide a smooth depth and origin time, (together with their of data comprising nearly thousand transition from research into the uncertainties), are known to high precision, events, NET-VISA showed significant production environment. either from non-seismic evidence, or using exceptionally good coverage of seismo­ gains in detection sensitivity compared to meters close to the event. SEL3, particularly at lower magnitudes. The way forward Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC): is a technique for generating random Virtual Data We have summarized applications of samples from a specified probability Exploitation Centre machine learning to CTBT verification, distribution by simulating a Markov including near-term improvements chain. A Markov chain is a mathematical model for a probabilistic system whereby Based upon the information above, we to components of the current IDC the next state of the system depends believe that the CTBTO could benefit pipeline, as well as a more substantial only on the current state and not on greatly from a strategic thrust focused architectural overhaul based on the previous states. on improving techniques for processing vertically integrated probabilistic models P (primary) waves and IMS and on-site inspection (OSI) data that connect underlying seismic events S (shear or secondary) waves: P waves are compressional and analogous sets, taking into consideration the to measured signals. Such models could to a sound wave in air or water. They can state-of-the-art in machine learning, the improve seismic phase classification, pass through any kind of material. S waves advances in data structures and query identify spurious associations through move perpendicular to the direction of the waves' propagation and can only exist techniques, and the shaping of sensor global optimization, characterize in the solid Earth. data for more accurate exploitation station drift/noise, use the absence of and inference. The long-term goal of detections to disconfirm hypotheses, prior probability distribution: reflects the probabilities one assigns such an effort should be to assist the perform time-localized »sub-threshold« to a set of hypotheses before seeing any CTBTO analyst in making more robust signal detections, combine multiple evidence; the *posterior* probability and expedient decisions, aided by inputs, and cumulatively, lower the distribution reflects the revisions to the prior in the light of specific evidence. a historical perspective, in the face threshold for event detection and of rapidly growing multi-sensory localization. Taken a step further, Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB): information and the importance continuous sensor self-calibration could A bulletin listing events and signal measurements at each station that of more accurate and timely event lead to better sensor design and layout detected an event, derived from waveform characterization. To facilitate such and potentially mitigate the cost of data that have been reviewed by an endeavour, a valuable next step future network operations. a human analyst. will be the creation of a virtual Data Standard Event List (SEL): Exploitation Centre (vDEC) hosted by To coordinate and guide machine A bulletin listing events based on the the IDC, which will connect international learning and data exploitation processing of waveform data. The first Standard Event List, SEL1, includes seismic experts (academic, government, and methods development in support of and hydroacoustic data. Based on SEL1, commercial) in different disciplines Treaty verification, we recommend additional seismic data may be requested with the IDC/OSI framework, to assess, a focus centre (vDEC) under the from auxiliary seismic stations. Results listed in SEL2 also include the processing develop and implement upgrades to the CTBTO umbrella, which will leverage of auxiliary seismic and infrasound data. current data processing infrastructure multidisciplinary expertise to incubate, The third list, SEL3, adds processing for event detection and localization. test and evolve next generation data of data arriving late from all monitoring stations. vDEC's charter will be to advance the solutions for IDC/OSI missions.

Biographical notes

Stuart Russell Sheila Vaidya Ronan Le Bras joined the University of California, is Deputy Programme Director of Non- joined the CTBTO's Berkeley, USA, in 1986, where he is the proliferation at the Global Security Principal International Data Centre (IDC) Chair of Electrical Engineering and Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National in 2001 and is now Head of the Computer Sciences. Dr. Russell is a Laboratory, California, USA. During her career, Software Integration Unit. Dr. winner of the Computers and Thought Dr. Vaidya has built programmes in data Le Bras has contributed key Award, the principal research award in exploitation, remote sensing, high performance items to the IDC system and artificial intelligence, and co-authored embedded computing, integrated circuit managed projects and teams in the standard textbook in the field of manufacturing, quantum electronics, and nuclear monitoring for the past artificial intelligence. semiconductor materials, devices and circuits. 16 years.

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 POTENTIAL CIVIL and Humpback Scientific APPLICATIONS whale Using hydroacoustic stations to monitor large whales by Flore Samaran A case study in the South West Indian Ocean

The hydroacoustic network is a key specific habitat preferences or weather conditions than visual methods component of the International migration patterns of many large and does not rely on animals surfacing Monitoring System (IMS). The network whale populations is very limited. in order to be detected. It can be applied contains 11 stations to monitor Monitoring these mammals to globally, including remote areas where compliance with the Comprehensive evaluate their post-whaling recovery visual sightings are usually either too Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in the remains difficult due to their wide- sparse to be relevant, difficult, or costly. world's oceans. IMS hydroacoustic ranging distribution, low density, Other advantages of passive acoustic stations around the world collect extensive migration, difficult visual monitoring are that it helps to identify a wide range of signals from identification, and inaccessibility. areas of concentration, assesses seasonal numerous sources, including large However, the long-term deployment occurrence and distribution patterns, whale vocalizations, that could be of passive acoustic recorders has and can facilitate the long-term used for scientific applications. By proved to be a very efficient and monitoring of whale abundance through providing critical information on these non-intrusive way to assess and variations in call rates over the years. endangered species, IMS hydroacoustic monitor large whale populations over data could be of great significance. ocean basins and for long periods. Possible scientific applications of IMS Most large whale Advantages of passive hydroacoustic data populations remain acoustic monitoring at low levels IMS hydroacoustic stations record Most of the year large whales emit low whale sounds around the world, Overexploitation during the 20th frequency calls (10-100 Hz) with high including remote locations such as century from commercial whaling intensity, which propagate over ranges sub-tropical or sub-Antarctic areas. reduced large whale populations to of many hundreds of kilometres. Using These stations have been making such a fraction of their original number. passive acoustic monitoring to assess recordings continuously for several Despite gaining complete international whale populations has several benefits years. They therefore represent legal protection several decades ago, in comparison with conventional survey a unique data set for obtaining most large whale populations remain methods (i.e. visual sightings). The critical information on large whales. at low levels and their recovery is animals can be studied continuously Studying IMS hydroacoustic data for uncertain. Today, basic knowledge without any negative impact. This biological purposes helps to expand regarding the distribution, abundance, method is also less dependent on our knowledge on the occurrence

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 and movements of large whales on an hydroacoustic station located near HYDROACOUSTIC ocean-wide scale. Moreover, multi-year the Crozet Islands in the southern MONIToRING acoustic monitoring using IMS data Indian Ocean - HAO4 (fig. 1 – see should facilitate the assessment of large overleaf) from May 2003 to April whale population sizes and trends. This 2004 were made available to the new and valuable information could be CNRS-Centre d'Etudes Biologiques helpful for determining the conservation de Chizé (Villiers en Bois, France). status and the management of these The data were provided by the important species. In addition, such Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique studies could improve the CTBTO's (CEA) centre DAM-île de France Hydroacoustic technology is used to processing efficiency by characterizing (Bruyère-Le-Châtel, France) within the measure changes in the water pressure hydroacoustic events and periods of framework of the South Indian Ocean caused by sound waves. Data obtained from hydroacoustic monitoring provide important large whale vocal activity. biological noise identification and information on the location of a nuclear 1 characterization project . explosion underwater, near the ocean Monitoring the area surface or near its coasts. around the Crozet Islands

[1] The IMS data have been made available WATCH online: To test and carry out this kind of through the CEA under contract. ctbto.org/hydroacoustic The information released in this article conforms research, data recorded by the IMS to the conditions set forth in the contract.

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 Figure 1: Figure 2: Location of Spectrogram the two arrays FIN WHALE CALLS of one year of of the IMS acoustic data hydroacoustic recorded at station HAO4 HAO4 which moored in the contained South West different specific Indian Ocean sounds produced near Crozet by large whales Islands. and detected with a seasonal occurrence. Pygmy Blue Antarctica blue Whale Calls Whale calls

The main objective of the research was extraction and discrimination have been types of pygmy blue whale calls were to identify biological noise. Monitoring developed and used on the available recorded only during summer and the area around the Crozet Islands is data in order to assess the seasonal autumn. The ‘Madagascan' type call particularly interesting for baleen whale occurrence of each large whale species, was the most frequently recorded while biology and ecology. This is because sub-species and sub-population. ‘Sri Lankan' and ‘Australian' type calls it encompasses two main but poorly Vocal activity was found to be highly recorded in this area suggest basin scale monitored whale sanctuaries created by seasonal and varied according to longitudinal and latitudinal movements. the International Whaling Commission the species (fig. 3). Results have During spring and summer, blue whale for the preservation of habitats of revealed the seasonal occurrence and calls were often associated with the whale species, which were decimated migration patterns of whales, providing high frequency ‘D' call, which has extensively as a result of whaling. information about ecology and habitats been attributed to feeding activity. The in this former commercial whaling co-occurrence of fin whale and blue Simple spectrogram observations area. Fin and Antarctic blue whale whale sub-species during the summer from these long-term acoustic calls were recorded all year-round has highlighted the importance of this recordings have revealed that the low indicating their continuous presence productive sub-Antarctic area as a large frequency (< 100 Hz) sea noise spectrum in the region, which contradicts the whale hotspot, providing new insights was dominated by a band of sound at migration pattern attributed to these into blue whale seasonal distribution 15-35 Hz, corresponding to large whale species. Three geographically distinct and segregation. vocalizations (fig. 2). Five species, sub-species and sub-populations of Antarctic calling whales were also identified based blue whale on their similarity to large whale calls, Photo: Kate Stafford which had been previously recorded in the Southern Hemisphere (i.e. the fin whale, the Antarctic blue whale and the pygmy blue whale ‘Madagascan' type, ‘Australian' type, and ‘Sri Lanka' type).

Whale vocal activity found to be highly seasonal

Each call type exhibited a variation in occurrence and intensity over the recorded period. Algorithms for automatic whale call detection,

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 Winter Spring Summer Fall Figure 3: 100% Figure 4: Spectrogram Distribution of 80% of one year of the ranges where acoustic data 60% Antarctic blue whale recorded at HAO4 40% were detected on which contained the northern array different specific 20% of HA04 using the sounds produced 0% range-dependant by large whales acoustic model. and detected 100% with a seasonal 80% occurrence. % Hrs with calls 60% 40% 20% 0%

First reported source first reported source level estimations for close to the Crozet Islands, showing level estimations for blue blue whales in the Indian Ocean. the importance of this sub-Antarctic whales in the Indian Ocean area for these endangered species A mathematical model – a range- especially during the austral summer In addition, the triangular configuration dependent acoustic model (RAM) feeding season (FIG. 4). of the calibrated hydrophones of – was used to predict how sound HA04 (fig.1) has permitted localization levels changed with distance between To conclude, this case study methods to be applied in order to vocalizing whales and IMS receivers. highlights the value of some of the track calling whales and to estimate This approach allowed the size of possible scientific applications of the movement and detection range the monitored area to be estimated. IMS hydroacoustic data, which have between the recording system and the The maximum detection area of the provided a unique data set for obtaining animals. Such data are critical to study whale calls was estimated within a crucial information on large whales. the habitat of calling whales without radius of 200km. Over the course of The study also demonstrates how the human disturbance. The differences in the year, acoustic detection ranges CTBTO and the scientific community arrival times of the signals at the three varied according to the whale species; can both benefit from close cooperation. hydrophones were used to calculate the e.g. pygmy blue whales seemed Further monitoring of these endangered location of whales. The sound levels to be present closer to the station mammals on a larger scale could provide of received calls may also be used to than Antarctic blue whales. The valuable information about their estimate the level of sound emitted by distribution of the estimated distances seasonal occurrence, distribution and the vocalizing whales. These were the confirmed the presence of whales relative abundance.

Flore Samaran after helping to Biographical note moor automated hydrophones Flore Samaran in the southern is a post-doctoral researcher at the Indian Ocean in January 2010. Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé The hydrophones in France. Dr Samaran specializes in record seismic bioacoustics and whale conservation activity and and uses passive acoustics to study biological sounds. blue whale distribution in the Southern Hemisphere.

Acknowledgements to the following contributors: Dr. Olivier Adam, assistant professor at the Centre de Neurosciences Paris-Sud , University of Paris, France / Dr. Kathleen Stafford, senior oceanographer with the Applied Physics Laboratory at the University of Washington, USA / Gerard Ruzie, engineer in the Analysis, Monitoring, and Environment Department of the French Atomic Energy Commission, France / Dr. Christophe Guinet, researcher at the Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé in France.

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 Book reviews Infrasound Monitoring for Atmospheric Studies  Edited by Le Pichon, A; Blanc, E; Hauchecorne, A. Published by Springer in January 2010. 735 pages

This publication provides a unique review below the hearing threshold of humans. of the latest infrasound-related research The potential of this network is such as instrumentation, engineering, signal unprecedented in terms of its detection processing, source monitoring, propagation capability, which has greatly increased the modelling, atmospheric dynamics, global interest in infrasound technology around changes, and remote sensing methods. the world. Infrasound technology can A number of experts in the field have also help detect volcanic explosions, thus contributed to this publication, which also contributing to aviation safety, as well as describes ways in which this important assisting in the detection of other man-made research can contribute to Comprehensive and natural events on the Earth's surface Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) infrasound including chemical explosions, meteors monitoring. entering the atmosphere, severe storm systems and aurorae. By supporting studies of Over 70 percent of the 60 stations meteorological phenomena, infrasound data making up the International Monitoring can also contribute to climate change research. System's (IMS) infrasound network are now operational. The IMS infrasound stations For more information please see: monitor the atmosphere for signs of a nuclear www.springer.com/earth+sciences+%26+geography/ test by measuring sound waves at frequencies book/978-1-4020-9507-8

Recent Advances in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring

Edited by Becker A, Schurr B, Kalinowski M, Koch K, and Brown D Published by Springer in April 2010, 245 pages

This publication provides a follow-up to for signature in 1996. The International a series published in Pure and Applied Monitoring System now includes over 50 Mechanics, Structure and Evolution of Fault Zones Recent Advances in Yehuda Ben-Zion and Charles Sammis, Editors Geophysics between 2001 and 2002, radionuclide and 20 radioxenon stations, Considerable progress has been made recently in quantifying geometrical and physical Nuclear Explosion

properties of fault surfaces and adjacent fractured and granulated damage zones in Mechanics, Structure and Evolution of Fault Zones active faulting environments. There has also been significant progress in developing rheologies and computational frameworks that can model the dynamics of fault zone Monitoring highlighting significant advances since which are fully operational and sending data processes. This volume provides state-of-the-art theoretical and observational results on the mechanics, structure and evolution of fault zones. Subjects discussed include damage rheologies, development of instabilities, fracture and friction, dynamic rupture experiments, and analyses of earthquake and fault zone data. then in fields of research related to to the International Data Centre. Progress The volume will be useful to students and professional researchers from Earth Sciences, Material Sciences, Engineering, Physics and other disciplines, who are interested in the properties of natural fault zones and the processes that occur nuclear test ban monitoring. Progress in the development and testing of new between and during earthquakes. Edited by Andreas Becker Bernd Schurr made in seismo-acoustics is addressed, radionuclide measurement systems and Martin Kalinowski Karl Koch David Brown with additional papers on radionuclide methods to determine the region of origin monitoring and atmospheric backtracking. of a suspicious radionuclide improves the It also explores how recent developments detection, location and characterization have enabled a better understanding of capabilities of the CTBT verification regime. the characteristics of the 2006 North It also provides entirely new insights into ISBN 978-3-0346-0137-5 Korean nuclear test. Several experts in the origin of background concentrations www.birkhauser.ch pageoph topical volumes the CTBT verification technologies have (i.e. whether the radionuclides are from contributed to this publication. natural or human sources), especially CTBT relevant noble gases. There has been considerable progress

in nuclear explosion monitoring, especially For more information please see: noble gas monitoring, which was considered www.springer.com/birkhauser/geo+science/ to be in its infancy when the CTBT opened book/978-3-0346-0370-6

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 14 | AP r i l 2 0 1 0 The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) bans all nuclear explosions on Earth.

It opened for signature on 24 September 1996 in New York.

As of April 2010, 182 countries had signed the Treaty and 151 had ratified it. Of the 44 nuclear capable States which must ratify the CTBT for it to enter into force, the so-called Annex 2 countries, 35 have done so to date while nine have yet to ratify: China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, Pakistan and the United States.

The Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear- Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) consists of the States Editor-in-Chief: Signatories and the Provisional Technical Secretariat. Annika Thunborg, The main tasks of the CTBTO are to promote signatures Spokesperson, Chief of Public Information and ratifications and to establish a global verification regime capable of detecting nuclear explosions underground, Prepared, coordinated and edited by: underwater and in the atmosphere. Denise Brettschneider

The regime must be operational when the Treaty enters CTBTO staff contributors: into force. It will consist of 337 monitoring facilities Jerry Carter, John Coyne, Andrew Forbes, supported by an International Data Centre and Kirsten Haupt, Matjaz Prah, Mark Prior, on-site inspection measures. Lamine Seydi, Markus Woltran

Layout: Todd Vincent

art direction: Michael Balgavy

Distribution: Pablo Mehlhorn

Photographs and illustrations are at the courtesy of the authors and the Provisional Technical Secretariat.

Please visit www.ctbto.org p u b l i s h e d b y : Public Information Your resource Preparatory Commission for the for stopping nuclear testing Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO)

If you wish to subscribe to the Vienna International Centre online version of the CTBTO Spectrum P.O. Box 1200 please visit the ‘email-alert’ area at www.ctbto.org 1400 Vienna, Austria Cover image: T +43 1 26030 6200 The concrete dome is on Runit Disclaimer: Island (part of Enewetak Atoll, The views expressed in articles by external contributors do F +43 1 26030 5823 Marshall Islands). It covers the not necessarily reflect the positions and policies of the CTBTO E [email protected] nine metre deep, 107 metre Preparatory Commission. wide crater created by the 1958 I www.ctbto.org The boundaries and presentation of material on maps do not “Cactus” nuclear test. Under the dome lie 84,927 cubic metres imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the Provisional Printed in Austria, April 2010 of radioactive soil and debris Technical Secretariat concerning the legal status of any country, on Munken Lynx Paper from Bikini and Rongelap Atolls. territory, city or area or its authorities, or concerning the © 2010 CTBTO Preparatory Commission wood and acid-free, [Gettyimages] delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. CTBTO Spectrum – ISSN: 1680-533X certified by the Forest Stewardship Council 2 0 1 0 www.ctbto.org l

3 may to 30 June 2010 I a p r 14 come and vIsIt our exhIbItIon In new york! 1 4 ctbto u e s s I SpectruM PUTTING AN ctbto Magazine issue 14 | april 2010 END TO NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS THE COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR-TEST-BAN TREATY

openIng event: 4 may 2010 at 6pm / un vIsItors lobby

UN Secretary BAN KI-MOON General UN Messenger MICHAEL DOUGLAS of Peace

CTBTO TIBOR TÓTH Executive Secretary The exhibition features the history of nuclear testing and the arduous path to adopting

the Comprehensive Nuclear- Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). It provides realistic impressions of the CTBT’s globe-spanning alarm system that monitors the planet for signs of a

nuclear test. It also shows president of the australia's KazaKhstan's Mexico's how the system promptly Marshall islands foreign Minister foreign Minister foreign Minister detected the two recent nuclear Jurelang Zedkaia Stephen Smith Kanat Saudabayev Patricia Espinosa explosions in North Korea. And it illustrates how the It Is tIme helpIng to thIrteen our state-of-the art technologies can help make a difference for the achIeve a years of longstandIng in people’s everyday lives. ctbt world wIthout cooperatIon support to come Into nuclear wIth the for force weapons ctbto the ctbt

ctbto spectrum don't mIss It – the area Is open to the publIc!