Strategic Net Assessment: Stability in the Gulf Region 13.6.2016 AHC 1 Stability and Instability in the Gulf Region in 2016: A Strategic Net Assessment By Anthony H. Cordesman With the assistance of Max Markusen and Eric P. Jones Working Draft: June 15, 2016 Please provide comments to
[email protected] Cover: MOHAMMED HUWAIS / Stringer Strategic Net Assessment: Stability in the Gulf Region 13.6.2016 AHC 2 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................... 7 I. KEY CHALLENGES TO REGIONAL AND NATIONAL STABILITY ............................................ 8 KEY AREAS OF RISK .................................................................................................................................................. 8 TRENDS IN CONFLICT AND SECURITY PROBLEMS ............................................................................................... 9 TRENDS IN POLITICS, GOVERNANCE, DEMOGRAPHICS, AND ECONOMICS ................................................... 10 ILLUSTRATING THE FORCES THAT SHAPE THE GULF REGION ....................................................................... 10 THE IMPACT OF ISLAM AND THE STRUGGLE FOR ITS FUTURE ....................................................................... 11 Figure I.1 The Growing Global Impact of Islam ................................................................................ 12 Figure I.2: Differing National Attitudes Towards the Role of Islam in Governance and the Rule