Greece/ Basic Resources Company update

Investment Research 9 December 2010

Buy Backlog execution well on track Recommendation unchanged Share price: EUR 9.56  We have raised our target price to EUR 15.10 from EUR 14.30 previously closing price as of 08/12/2010 mainly incorporating the recently awarded EPC project in Syria for a 724 Target price: EUR 15.10 MW CCGT power plant with a budget of EUR 680m. Strong backlog of vs Target Price: EUR 14.30 EUR 2.4bn of which about 90% is derived from foreign projects and

healthy operating margin provide a high earnings visibility for the next three Reuters/Bloomberg MTKr.AT/METTK GA years, a significant advantage in the current uncertain economic Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 35,87 3 environment. Furthermore, management currently investigates new market Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 0.33 opportunities in Middle East and Africa in order to capitalize on large Price high 12 mth (EUR) 11.28 infrastructure needs in the coming years, while Turkey is always in focus Price low 12 mth (EUR) 7.75 Abs. perf. 1 mth 9.1% for new energy projects. We reiterate our Buy recommendation. Abs. perf. 3 mth 9.4%  Metka’s backlog in turn-key CCGT plants is comprised of: a) 775 MW plant Abs. perf. 12 mth 9.1% for RWE-Turcas in Turkey with a contract value of EUR 450m, b) 870 MW plant for OMV in Turkey with a contract value of EUR 475m, c) 700 MW

Market capitalisation (EURm) 497 plant in Syria with a contract value of EUR 650m, d) 860 MW plant for Current N° of shares (m) 52 OMV in Romania jointly with GE and a contract value for Metka of EUR Free float 43% 210m, e) 437 MW plant for Korinthos Power (JV Mytilineos-Metka) in south

Greece with a contract value EUR 285m, f) 417 MW plant for PPC in Key financials (EUR) 12/09 12/10e 12/11e central Greece with a contract value of EUR 219m, g) 430 MW plant in Sales (m) 339 604 755 central Greece for Mytilineos group with contract value of EUR 232m, EBITDA (m) 61 129 122 which is going to be completed within 2010, h) 724 MW plant in Syria with EBITDA margin 17.9% 21.3% 16.2% a contract value of EUR 680m. Besides energy, Metka has signed two EBIT (m) 56 124 117 EBIT margin 16.5% 20.5% 15.4% defense contracts with a total value of about USD 50m, won in cooperation Net Profit (adj.)(m) 35 56 82 with Raytheon Company/IDS (Integrated Defense Systems) and Intracom ROCE 25.9% 36.0% 40.7% Defense Electronics, for the development of Patriot defense systems on Net debt/(cash) (m) (22) (74) (84) behalf of United Arab Emirates and Taiwan. Net Debt Equity -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 Net Debt/EBITDA 0.4 0.6 0.7  Following a fine-tuning of our estimates, we forecast for 2010 group sales, Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int) 38.5 (172.7) (77.1) EBITDA and net income of EUR 604m, EUR 129m and EUR 78.6m EV/Sales 1.4 0.7 0.5 respectively, including a social contribution tax of EUR 5.6m. Keep in mind EV/EBITDA 7.9 3.2 3.3 that 2010 sales and EBITDA are enhanced by an amount of EUR 32.4m EV/EBITDA (adj.) 7.9 4.5 3.3 EV/EBIT 8.6 3.4 3.5 for the sale of the subsidiary ETADE S.A. Adjusting for one-off items, the P/E (adj.) 14.4 8.9 6.0 EBITDA margin stands at a high for the sector 16%. In 2011 the company’s P/BV 3.2 2.2 1.8 turnover is expected to settle well above the EUR 700m mark on OpFCF yield 9.0% 13.9% 9.1% simultaneous execution of seven large-scale energy projects in four Dividend yield 2.1% 5.5% 5.0% countries, namely Greece, Turkey, Romania and Syria. Specifically, for EPS (adj.) 0.68 1.08 1.58 2011 we forecast sales, EBITDA and net income of EUR 755m, EUR 122m BVPS 3.02 4.34 5.18 and EUR 71m respectively, incorporating also a social contribution tax of 12.0 vvdsvdvsdy

11.0 about EUR 11m.

10.0

9.0  Following government’s decision to tax distributed profits with a 40% tax 8.0 rate, we retain our assumption for a minimum payout ratio of 35%, which 7.0

6.0 was recently confirmed by management, mainly in order to minimize the

5.0 tax impact. Our estimates result in an effective tax rate of 29.6% in 2010, Νοε 09 εκ 09 Ιαν 10 Φεβ 10 Μαρ 10 Απρ 10 Μαϊ 10 Ιουν 10 Ιουλ 10 Αυγ 10 Σεπ 10 Οκτ 10 Νοε 10 εκ 10 declining to EUR 27% from next year when the tax rate on retained METKA Athex Composite (Rebased) Source: Factset earnings falls to 20% from 24% this year. Shareholders: Mytilineos 57%;

Analyst(s): Vassilis Roumantzis +30 2108173394 [email protected] For company description please see summary table footnote

Produced by: All ESN research is available on Bloomberg: “ESNR”

Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)

Metka

Revised forecasts We have incorporated in our new estimates the second power plant project in Syria recently awarded by the local utility, while we have fine-tuned our estimates for the timeframe of the projects in the period 2010-2013 without affecting the total amounts which are based on signed contracts: Metka’s backlog of about EUR 2.35bn at the end of 9M:10 is mainly comprised of the following projects: a) Endesa Hellas: 430 MW CCGT plant in Agios Nikolaos in central Greece with contract value of EUR 232m, which is going to be completed within 2010. The remaining value to be invoiced is about EUR 15m. b) PPC (Aliveri): 417 MW CCGT plant in Aliveri in Evia with a contract value of EUR 219m. Construction has been delayed for almost 2 years due to archeological findings in the original site, but the project is now well on track expected to be delivered in 2011. The remaining value scheduled to be invoiced is about EUR 25m, while we can not exclude the possibility Metka to claim additional compensation for the aforementioned delays. c) OMV Petrom (Romania): 860 MW CCGT plant in Romania, won in partnership with GE, with a contract value corresponding to Metka of EUR 210m. Construction has started since 2H:09 and is expected to be completed in 2011. The remaining value to be invoiced is c. EUR 90m. d) PEEGT (Syria): 700 MW CCGT power plant in Syria assigned by the Syrian government to Metka/Ansaldo partnership. The project has a budget of about EUR 650m and a construction time of about 36 months. The execution of the project has already started, estimated to contribute in 2010 sales about EUR 20m. Keep in mind that Metka has limited exposure to local market conditions as the financing of the project is secured through the issue of L/C. e) Korinthos Power (JV between Mytilineos and Motor Oil): 437 MW CCGT plant in Motor Oil’s refinery site in Ag. Theodoroi with a contract value of EUR 285m. The construction of the plant was launched during 2H:09 and is expected to be completed by mid 2011. The remaining value to be invoiced is about EUR 100m. f) RWE-Turcas (Turkey): 775 MW CCGT power plant in Turkey with RWE & Turcas Guney Elektrik Uretim, a JV of German utility RWE and locally-based energy company Turcas Petrol. We note that in the above JV, RWE holds 70% share and Turcas 30%. The total investment sum amounts to approximately EUR 500m. The project is at its initial phase contributing about EUR 15m in 2010 sales. g) OMV (Turkey): Metka’s second power plant project in Turkey for a total value of EUR 475m. Specifically, Metka and Power Projects (Metka’s 100% local subsidiary) have been awarded a contract by BORASCO (100% subsidiary of OMV Power International GmbH) for the construction and supply of equipment for a 870 MW CCGT plant in Samsun in Turkey. The total budget of the project is EUR 342.3m plus USD 183.1m. The scheduled delivery is 28.5 months. The equipment for this project have already started to be delivered at the construction site contributing in 2010 sales around EUR 200m. h) PEEGT (Syria): A consortium of Metka and Ansaldo signed with the Syrian government a second EPC contract for a 724 MW CCGT power plant for a total amount of EUR 680m. Metka is the leader of the project and is going to invoice the whole project, which is expected to be concluded in 40 months after the opening of the Letter of Credit (pending). i) Defence contract: Metka has signed two defense contracts with a total value of about USD 52m, which were won in cooperation with Raytheon Company/IDS (Integrated Defense Systems) and Intracom Defense Electronics for the development of Patriot defense systems on behalf of United Arab Emirates and Taiwan. Keep in mind that defense projects carry a high operating margin.

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Metka

Below we show the breakdown of Metka’s revenues until 2013 (excluding the amount of EUR 32.4m for ETADE):

Table 1: Our turnover forecasts for 2010-13

EUR m 2010e y-o-y 2011e y-o-y 2012e y-o-y 2013e y-o-y Signed contracts Total largescale energy projects 522 679 717 545 Endesa Hellas (Ag. Nikolaos) 27 0 0 0 PPC (Aliveri) 40 18 0 0 PETROM (Romania) 100 86 0 0 PEEGT (Syria) Plant 1) 20 200 285 145 PEEGT (Syria) Plant 2) 0 10 100 300 Korinthos Power (JV Mytilineos - Motor Oil) 110 67 0 0 OMV (Turkey) 210 133 132 0 RWE-Turcas (Turkey) 15 165 200 100 Other projects 20 26 12 10 Defence projects 0 20 20 10 Total signed projects 542 725 749 565 % of total revenues 94.8% 96.0% 96.1% 95.0% Subsidiaries 30 30 30 30 % of total revenues 5.2% 4.0% 3.9% 5.0% Total Metka Revenues 572 66.0% 755 32% 779 3% 595 -23.6% Source: IBG estimates *excluding ETADE sale of EUR 32.4m

2010 EBITDA unchanged, EPS trimmed by 2%

For 2010 we do not proceed to material changes, leaving our EBITDA estimate unchanged and trimming our net income on higher financial costs including L/C charges. We remind that our 2010 numbers already included a EUR 32.4m capital gain from the sale of 100% of ETADE S.A and a EUR 4.5m compensation related to delays in PPC’s Aliveri project. After 2010, we have proceeded to a reallocation in the timing of the projects, adopting a more conservative stance for 2011 resulting in stronger sales for 2012. Following management’s comments that the management fee paid to is under consideration in view of undertaking the maintenance of Mytlineos group’s 3 power plants, we have adjusted downwards the fee to 2% from 3% as a percentage of sales, as our understanding is that the revised fee structure will prove beneficial to Metka given the higher than expected turnover in the coming years. Management said that they will be able to provide details on the new fee structure early 2011. Finally, during the conference call for 3Q:10 financial results, management said that 2011 EBITDA could benefit from contractual adjustments related to delays in projects executed during 2010, implying an upside to our estimates. Following government’s decision to tax distributed profits with a 40% tax rate, we retain our assumption for a minimum payout ratio of 35%, which was recently confirmed by management in order to minimize the tax impact and to to retain enough cash ahead of the execution of many products leading to higher working capital needs in the next period. Our estimates result in an effective tax rate of 29.6% in 2010 declining to EUR 27% from next year when the tax rate on retained earnings falls to 20% from 24% this year. We also remind that Metka is required to pay a social contribution tax imposed by the government on corporate earnings, which we estimate at EUR 5.6m in 2010 (already recorded in 2Q:10 financial results), EUR 11m in 2011 and EUR 11m in 2012, paid one year later.

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Metka

Below we show our changes in headline estimates for the period 2010-2012: Table 2: Forecast changes for 2010-2012 EUR m 2010E 2011E 2012E Sales New 604.1* 755 779 Sales Old 595.1* 835 729 Change 1.5% -9.5% 6.9%

EBITDA New 128.9 121.9 125.5 EBITDA Old 129.1 155.9 111.0 Change 0% -21.8% 13%

Net income New 78.6 71.2 74.6 Net earnings Old 80.5 94.9 61.8 Change -2.3% -25% 20.7% Source: IBG estimates * includes EUR 32.4m for ETADE sale

New projects

Foreign market conditions are generally not positive for new power plant projects in the current adverse economic environment, consequently Metka’s choice is to wait for new projects when market conditions improve so that they will guarantee a healthy margin. In the domestic market, Metka participates in two tenders launched by PPC. In the first tender Metka bids jointly with Alstom for a 550-660 MW lignite-fired plant in Ptolemais with a budget of EUR 1.32bn (Metka’s participation if this project is won is less than 50%).The deadline for the submission of offers is 15/12/2010. Metka also participates in PPC’s tender for a 100 MW oil-fired plant in Crete with a budget of EUR 135m. Four offers have been submitted and the award is pending. In foreign projects, Metka’s management is currently evaluating opportunities in Middle East and Africa which are quite promising regions with large infrastructure needs in the coming years, while Turkey is always in focus for new power plant projects on rising electricity demand. Indicative of the large potential of the Turkish market is the recently announced alliance between the US power producer AES and Turkey’s largest industrial group Koc Holding aiming at 3,000 MW capacity with a focus on coal and gas-fired generation.

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Metka

Valuation

Following our new estimates, we have raised our target price to EUR 15.10 from EUR 14.30 previously, reiterating our Buy recommendation. Our revised DCF model is based on a WACC of 10.3%, using a beta of 1.20, a risk premium of 4% plus 2% for country’s high exposure to Greece and emerging markets, a risk free rate of 4.5%, an after tax cost of borrowing of 4.8% and a target capital gearing ratio of 25%. The terminal value is based on 2013 NOPLAT derived from a turnover level of EUR 600m in line with the average sales in the period 2009-2013 and an EBITDA margin of 15%, which is about 100 bps below the average EBITDA for the same period. We also assign a 1.5% long-term growth rate. Table 3: Metka DCF valuation

(EUR m) 2011e 2012e 2013e NOPLAT 85.5 88.1 62.3 Depreciation 5.4 5.6 5.9 Extraordinaries* 21.0 (11.0) (11.0) Gross cash flow 112 82.7 57.2 Change in working capital (36.5) (5.9) 45.0 Capex (5.2) (5.2) (5.2) FCF 70.2 71.6 97.0 DCF 63.7 58.8 72.2 Sum of PV (2011E-2013E) 194.7 Terminal Value 534.4 Net cash (end 2010) 73.8 Minorities 18.3 Total Shareholders’ value 785 Target Price 15.10 Source: IBG *includes social contribution tax paid in 2011-2013 and cash receipt from ETADE sale

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Metka

9M:10 review – A strong performance on backlog acceleration

Metka reported strong 9M:10 financial results, exceeding our estimates: Specifically, group turnover, EBITDA and net income settled at EUR 487.2m (+140% YoY), EUR 107.8m (+200% YoY) and 70.1m (+252% YoY) respectively compared to our estimates of EUR 426m, EUR 104m and EUR 68.7m. On a 3Q:10 basis, sales, EBITDA and net income came at EUR 231m (+129% YoY), EUR 33.8m (+61% YoY) and EUR 22.1m (+84% YoY). Metka’s strong turnover in 3Q:10 was positively affected by the acceleration of the implementation of the EPC projects signed abroad and especially in Turkey. Excluding the one-off items recorded in 1H:10, Metka’s normalized EBITDA margin stood in 9M:10 at c.15.5%. Finally, Metka retains a strong balance sheet with a net cash position of about EUR 92m at the end of 9M:10.

Table 4: Metka 9M:10 Group Key P&L forecasts

EUR m 9M:09 9M:10e YoY Revenues 203 487 140% “Adjusted” revenues* 454.6 124% EBITDA 36 108 200% EBITDA margin 17.7% 22% “Adjusted” EBITDA* 71 97% “Adjusted” EBITDA margin 15.6% Net Income 20 70 250% Net Income margin 9.8% 14.3% “Adjusted” net income* 42 110% “Adjusted” margin 9.2%

Source: IBG, Metka *excludes capital gain from ETADE sale and one-off compensation from PPC

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Metka

Metka: Summary tables PROFIT & LOSS (EURm) 12/2007 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010e 12/2011e 12/2012e Sales 284 381 339 604 755 779 Cost of Sales & Operating Costs 227 314 278 512 633 653 Non Recurrent Expenses/Income 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.9 0.0 0.0 EBITDA 57.2 66.8 60.6 129 122 126 EBITDA (adj.)* 57.2 66.8 60.6 91.9 122 126 Depreciation -5.0 -5.3 -4.9 -5.1 -5.4 -5.6 EBITA 52.2 61.5 55.8 124 117 120 EBITA (adj)* 52.2 61.5 55.8 86.8 117 120 Amortisations and Write Dow ns 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBIT 52.2 61.5 55.8 124 117 120 EBIT (adj.)* 52.2 61.5 55.8 86.8 117 120 Net Financial Interest -1.9 -3.6 -1.6 0.7 1.6 2.2 Other Financials 0.2 0.0 0.4 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 Associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Non Recurrent Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings Before Tax (EBT) 50.4 58.0 54.6 122 116 120 Tax -13.2 -13.2 -17.6 -41.8 -43.0 -43.5 Tax rate 26.1% 22.8% 32.2% 34.2% 37.0% 36.2% Discontinued Operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Minorities -0.5 -3.4 -1.8 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 Net Profit (reported) 37 41 35 79 71 75 Net Profit (adj.) 37 41 35 56 82 86 CASH FLOW (EURm) 12/2007 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010e 12/2011e 12/2012e Cash Flow from Operations before change in NWC 56.4 40.3 59.7 100 81.7 85.0 Change in Net Working Capital -22.9 -17.8 -14.3 -31.3 -36.5 -5.9 Cash Flow from Operations 33.5 22.4 45.4 69.2 45.2 79.1 Capex -1.9 -1.8 -2.6 -4.2 -5.2 -5.2 Net Financial Investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow 31.7 20.6 42.8 65.0 40.0 73.9 Dividends -26.0 -21.8 -10.6 -27.5 -24.9 -26.1 Other (incl. Capital Increase & share buy backs) 0.6 -4.0 -18.6 14.7 -4.6 -53.3 Change in Net Debt 6 -5 14 52 11 -6 NOPLAT 37 46 42 66 90 94 BALANCE SHEET & OTHER ITEMS (EURm) 12/2007 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010e 12/2011e 12/2012e Net Tangible Assets 72.4 65.8 62.5 61.5 61.4 61.0 Net Intangible Assets (incl.Goodw ill) 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 Net Financial Assets & Other 2.0 4.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 Total Fixed Assets 82.3 77.9 78.6 77.7 77.5 77.1 Net Working Capital 79.4 138 91.4 114 151 157 Net Capital Invested 162 216 170 192 229 234 Group Shareholders Equity 139 158 173 244 289 341 o/w own Shareholders Equity 127 143 157 225 269 319 Net Debt -13.2 -8.0 -21.6 -73.8 -84.3 -131 Provisions 2 3 3 2 2 2 Other Net Liabilities or Assets 34 62 16 20 22 22 Net Capital Employed 162 216 170 192 229 234 GROWTH & MARGINS 12/2007 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010e 12/2011e 12/2012e Sales growth -3.4% 34.0% -11.0% 78.2% 25.0% 3.2% EBITDA (adj.)* growth -6.1% 16.8% -9.2% 51.7% 32.6% 2.9% EBITA (adj.)* growth -6.7% 17.9% -9.3% 55.6% 34.3% 2.9% EBIT (adj)*growth -6.7% 17.9% -9.3% 55.6% 34.3% 2.9% Net Profit growth -9.5% 12.6% -15.0% 59.3% 46.5% 4.2% EPS adj. growth -9.5% 12.6% -15.0% 59.3% 46.5% 4.2% DPS adj. growth 25.0% -16.2% -51.5% 160.4% -9.5% 4.8% EBITDA margin 20.1% 17.5% 17.9% 21.3% 16.2% 16.1% EBITDA (adj)* margin 20.1% 17.5% 17.9% 15.2% 16.2% 16.1% EBITA margin 18.4% 16.1% 16.5% 20.5% 15.4% 15.4% EBITA (adj)* margin 18.4% 16.1% 16.5% 14.4% 15.4% 15.4% EBIT margin 18.4% 16.1% 16.5% 20.5% 15.4% 15.4% EBIT (adj)* margin 18.4% 16.1% 16.5% 14.4% 15.4% 15.4%

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Metka

Metka: Summary tables RATIOS 12/2007 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010e 12/2011e 12/2012e Net Debt/Equity -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 Net Debt/EBITDA -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -1.0 Interest cover (EBITDA/Fin.interest) 29.9 18.6 38.5 nm nm nm Capex/D&A 37.3% 34.3% 52.9% 81.7% 96.8% 92.5% Capex/Sales 0.7% 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% NWC/Sales 27.9% 36.2% 27.0% 18.9% 20.0% 20.1% ROE (average) 30.9% 30.7% 23.5% 29.3% 33.2% 29.1% ROCE (adj.) 23.2% 21.8% 25.9% 36.0% 40.7% 41.4% WACC 10.3% 10.3% 10.3% 10.3% 10.3% 10.3% ROCE (adj.)/WACC 2.3 2.1 2.5 3.5 4.0 4.0

PER SHARE DATA (EUR)*** 12/2007 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010e 12/2011e 12/2012e Average diluted number of shares 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 EPS (reported) 0.71 0.80 0.68 1.51 1.37 1.44 EPS (adj.) 0.71 0.80 0.68 1.08 1.58 1.65 BVPS 2.45 2.74 3.02 4.34 5.18 6.13 DPS 0.50 0.42 0.20 0.53 0.48 0.50

VALUATION 12/2007 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010e 12/2011e 12/2012e EV/Sales 2.8 0.9 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 EV/EBITDA 13.7 5.0 7.9 3.2 3.3 2.8 EV/EBITDA (adj.)* 13.7 5.0 7.9 4.5 3.3 2.8 EV/EBITA 15.1 5.4 8.6 3.4 3.5 3.0 EV/EBITA (adj.)* 15.1 5.4 8.6 4.8 3.5 3.0 EV/EBIT 15.1 5.4 8.6 3.4 3.5 3.0 EV/EBIT (adj.)* 15.1 5.4 8.6 4.8 3.5 3.0 P/E (adj.) 21.8 8.3 14.4 8.9 6.0 5.8 P/BV 6.3 2.4 3.2 2.2 1.8 1.6 Total Yield Ratio 2.7% 3.1% 5.5% 5.0% 5.3% EV/CE 4.9 1.6 2.9 2.3 1.8 1.6 OpFCF yield 4.2% 6.5% 9.0% 13.9% 9.1% 15.9% OpFCF/EV 4.3% 6.8% 9.5% 16.7% 11.2% 22.1% Payout ratio 70.6% 52.6% 30.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% Dividend yield (gross) 3.2% 6.3% 2.1% 5.5% 5.0% 5.3%

EV AND MKT CAP (EURm) 12/2007 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010e 12/2011e 12/2012e Price** (EUR) 15.4 6.6 9.8 9.6 9.6 9.6 Outstanding number of shares for main stock 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 Total Market Cap 801 344 507 497 497 497 Net Debt -13.2 -8.0 -21.6 -73.8 -84.3 -131 o/w Cash & Marketable Securities (-) -31.4 -19.4 -32.1 -73.8 -84.3 -131 o/w Gross Debt (+) 18.3 11.4 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other EV components -2 -4 -8 -8 -8 -8 Enterprise Value (EV adj.) 786 332 477 415 404 357 Source: Company, Marfin Analysis estimates.

Notes * Where EBITDA (adj.) or EBITA (adj) or EBIT (adj.)= EBITDA (or EBITA or EBIT) +/- Non Recurrent Expenses/Income **Price (in local currency): Fiscal year end price for Historical Years and Current Price for current and forecasted years ***EPS (adj.) diluted= Net Profit (adj.)/Avg DIL. Ord. (+ Ord. equivalent) Shs. EPS (reported) = Net Profit reported/Avg DIL. Ord. (+ Ord. equivalent) Shs. Sector: Basic Resources/Industrial Metals Company Description: Metka, 57% ow ned by industrial group Mytilineos, is the leading electromechanical and metallic construction company in Greece. Over the last few years Metka has specialized in the construction and delivery of turn key thermal pow er plants undertaking a number of projects in Greece and SE Europe. Metka’s backlog currently stands at c.EUR 2.4bn of w hich more than 90% is in foreign countries.

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ESN Recommendation System The ESN Recommendation System is Absolute . It means that each stock is rated on the basis of a total return , measured by the upside potential (including dividends and capital reimbursement) over a 12 month time horizon . The ESN spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 5 categories: Buy, Accumulate (or Add), Hold, Reduce and Sell (in short: B, A, H, R, S) . Furthermore, in specific cases and for a limited period of time, the analysts are allowed to rate the stocks as Rating Suspended (RS) or Not Rated (NR) , as explained below. Meaning of each recommendation or rating:

• Buy : the stock is expected to generate total return of over 20% during the next 12 months time horizon • Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate total return of 10% to 20% during the next 12 months time horizon • Hold : the stock is expected to generate total return of 0% to 10% during the next 12 months time horizon. • Reduce : the stock is expected to generate total return of 0% to -10% during the next 12 months time horizon • Sell : the stock is expected to generate total return under -10% during the next 12 months time horizon • Rating Suspended : the rating is suspended due to a capital operation (take- over bid, SPO, …) where the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer is or could be involved or to a change of analyst covering the stock • Not Rated : there is no rating for a company being floated (IPO) by the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer

History of ESN Recommendation System Since 18 October 2004 , the Members of ESN are using an Absolute Recommendation System (before was a Relative Rec. System) to rate any single stock under coverage. Since 4 August 2008 , the ESN Rec. System has been amended as follow. • Time horizon changed to 12 months (it was 6 months) • Recommendations Total Return Range changed as below:

TODAY

SELL REDUCE HOLD ACCUMULATE BUY -10% 0% 10% 20% BEFORE

SELL REDUCE HOLD ACCUMULATE BUY -15% 0% 5% 15%

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Metka

not set a predetermined frequency for publication, if this is a fundamental research report, it is the intention of Investment Bank of Greece to provide research coverage of the subject company(ies), including in response to news affecting this issuer, subject to applicable quiet periods and capacity constraints. Investment Bank of Greece may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. Investment Bank of Greece does and seeks to do business with companies covered in their research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firms may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Securities referred to in this research report are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. This report is intended for professional investors only and it is not to be reproduced or copied or reprinted or transmitted for any purpose without permission. We certify that this report has been published in accordance with our conflict management policy and guidelines. According to Investment Bank of Greece policies, the Analysis Department of Investment Bank of Greece is bound by confidentiality, with the exception of data allowed to be published in accordance with the applicable laws. Investment Bank of Greece relies on information barriers to control the flow of information in one or more areas within Investment Bank of Greece organization. The communication between the Analysis Department of Investment Bank of Greece and the other departments of the aforementioned company is restricted by Chinese Walls set between the different departments, so that Investment Bank of Greece can abide by the provisions regarding confidential information and market abuse.

Analyst Certification The following analysts: Vassilis Roumantzis hereby certify that the views about the companies and securities contained in this report accurately reflect their personal views and that no part of their compensation was or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views in this report. The analysts mentioned above who prepared this report have the below mentioned financial interests in the companies covered in this report ……none ……

Important Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Company The information and opinions in this report were prepared by INVESTMENT BANK of GREECE, which is member of the Exchange S.A. and regulated by the Bank of Greece (License No: 52/2/17.12.99) and by the Hellenic Capital Market Commission. The compensation of the research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report may depend on various factors such as quality of work, stock picking, client feedback and overall firm profitability.

Stock Ratings You should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in the research report. Moreover, you should carefully read the entire research report to obtain a clear view of the analyst’s opinions and not infer its contents from the rating alone.

Marfin Analysis Research Rating Distribution Data current as of 03/12/2010 Buy Accumulate Hold Reduce Sell Marfin Analysis Total Coverage 46% 15% 35% 0% 4% % of companies in each rating category that are investment banking clients 8% 0% 4% 0% 0%

Construction & Building materials 80% 20% 0% 0% 0% % of companies in each rating category that are investment banking clients 20% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies 1. As of the date mentioned on the first page of this report, Investment Bank of Greece (or any of its affiliated companies) owns 5% or more of a class of common equity securities in the following companies mentioned in this report: Vivartia, Attica Group, Blue Star Ferries, Hygeia Group, SingularLogic 2. As of the date mentioned on the first page of this report, the following subject companies mentioned in this report own 5% or more of a class of common equity securities of Investment Bank of Greece (or any of its affiliated companies): Marfin Popular Bank 3. Investment Bank of Greece acts as a market maker for the following securities of the subject companies mentioned in this report: , CCH, EFG Eurobank, National Bank, OPAP, OTE, , PPC, Hellenic Exchanges, Intralot, Mytilineos, , GEK TERNA, Bank of 4. Within the last 12 months, Investment Bank of Greece has provided advisory services to the following companies mention in this report: Hellenic Postbank 5. Within the last 12 months, Investment Bank of Greece had a contractual relationship or have received compensation for financial advisory services from the following subject companies mentioned in this report: Vivartia, GEK TERNA, Hellenic Postbank, Motor Oil, Euroline, Interinvest, Vivere, Hygeia Group

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Metka

Rating History 1. 12/11/2010 Buy, Target Price €14.30 2. 13/09/2010 Buy, Target Price €14.30 3. 30/08/2010 Buy, Target Price €14.60 4. 30/07/2010 Buy, Target Price €14.60 5. 17/05/2010 Buy, Target Price €14.60 6. 26/03/2010 Buy, Target Price €14.30 7. 08/01/2010 Buy, Target Price €14.30 8. 06/11/2009 Buy, Target Price €12.00 9. 09/09/2009 Buy, Target Price €12.00 10. 25/05/2009 Buy, Target Price €11.90

15.0

14.0

13.0

12.0

11.0

10.0

9.0

8.0

7.0 Νοε εκ Ιαν Φεβ Μαρ Απρ Μαϊ Ιουν Ιουλ Αυγ Σεπ Οκτ Νοε εκ 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Price history Target price history

Buy Accumulate Hold Reduce Sell Not rated

Source: Factset & ESN, price data adjusted for stock splits. This chart shows Marfin Analysis continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst may or may not have covered it over the entire period.

Risks to our forecasts and valuation • Postponements in the execution of existing contracts • Delay in new tenders for power plants due to the current negative economic environment • Pressure in margins due to increased competition, execution of many projects simultaneously or potential claims from customers • The expansion outside Greece imply additional risks such as political risks • Shifts to new technologies in power plants that Metka does not have the know-how

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Metka Greece Basic Resources