Public Opinion Survey of Residents of Ukraine
July 30-31, 2020 Methodology • The survey was conducted by the Sociological Group “Rating” on behalf of the Center for Insights and Survey Research (CISR) of the International Republican Institute. • The survey was conducted throughout Ukraine (except for the occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas) from July 30 – July 31, 2020 using CATI (computer-assisted telephone interview) method based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers. • Mobile numbers were generated randomly by special software using 12 codes of three largest mobile operators in Ukraine: KYIVSTAR, VODAFONE Ukraine and LIFECELL. Each randomly generated number package includes an equal quantity of each code (050, 063, 066, 067, 068, 073, 093, 095, 096, 097, 098, 099). • The total sample consists of 2,472 Ukrainians aged 16 and older. For some questions, the total sample was divided into two subsamples of 1,234 (Sample A) and 1,238 respondents (Sample B). • The results have been weighted according to regions, age and gender based on data from the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine as of 01/01/2018. • The margin of error at the 95 percent confidence level does not exceed 2 percent for the full sample. • The response rate was 12 percent. • Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. • The survey was funded by the National Endowment for Democracy.
2 Geographical Key
*Due to the Russian occupation of Crimea and ongoing conflict in the East of Ukraine, citizens of Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts controlled by the separatists did not participate in the survey 3 Frequently Cited Disaggregates* Disaggregate Disaggregation Category Base Region West n=648
Center n=842
South n=598 East n=312 Age 16-29 n=446 30-39 n=474 40-49 n=409
50-59 n=400
60+ n=671 Gender Men n=1,088 Women n=1,312 Income† Food insecure income n=431 Subsistence income n=718 Adequate income n=664 Secure income n=533 *Cited bases are weighted. Margin of error will vary with sample size n. Only the four income categories are displayed throughout disaggregates in this presentation—the top two categories were combined to form “Secure Income”. †Respondents were asked “Which of the following best describes your financial situation?” The possible answers presented were1. “There isn’t enough money even for food” (Food insecure income); 2. “There is enough for everyday expenses, but it is already difficult to buy clothes” (Subsistence income); 3. “Basically enough, but not enough for buy expensive items” (Adequate Income); 4. “Almost everything is enough, but buying an apartment, a house is not available” (Secure Income); and 5. “We deny ourselves practically nothing” (Secure Income). 4 Moods and Attitudes In general, would you say that Ukraine is heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction?
Right direction Wrong direction Difficult to answer/No answer
12%
23%
65%
6 In general, would you say that Ukraine is heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction Difficult to answer/No answer
Regions Age, Income
16-29 42% 46% 12%
East 25% 62% 13% 30-39 20% 68% 12%
40-49 21% 65% 14%
50-59 17% 73% 10% Center 23% 64% 13% 60+ 16% 71% 13%
West 23% 65% 12% Secure income 32% 57% 11%
Adequate income 29% 58% 14%
Subsistence income 18% 69% 13% South 21% 68% 12%
Food insecure income 11% 79% 11%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 7 Electoral Moods How likely or unlikely are you to vote in the local elections scheduled for October 2020? Likely Unlikely Difficult to answer/No answer
3%
20%
77%
9 How likely or unlikely are you to vote in the local elections scheduled for October 2020?
Likely Unlikely Difficult to answer/No answer Regions
East 79% 19% 2%
Center 77% 20% 3%
West 77% 18% 5%
South 74% 23% 3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 10 How likely or unlikely are you to vote in the local elections scheduled for October 2020? Likely Unlikely Difficult to answer/No answer Age, Gender, Income
16-29 64% 33% 3%
30-39 75% 22% 4%
40-49 80% 17% 3%
50-59 78% 18% 4%
60+ 84% 13% 4%
Women 80% 17% 3%
Men 72% 24% 4%
Secure income 75% 23% 2%
Adequate income 79% 17% 4%
Subsistence income 79% 18% 4%
Food Insecure income 74% 22% 4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 11 What is the primary reason you are unlikely to vote in the October local elections? (Among those who are unlikely to vote in the elections (n=478), Spontaneous response)
Lack of confidence in the electoral process 15%
None of the parties or candidates inspire me 14%
My vote does not matter 13%
Lack of interest 11%
Not eligible to vote 9%
Lack of time 8%
Not interested in voting in the elections 8%
I won't be at home 4%
The registration process is too cumbersome 3%
Other* 11%
Difficult to answer/No answer 4%
0% 10% 20% *Options were not read to respondents. Responses named by less than 3 percent of respondents were merged into “Other.” 12 If local elections were held this coming Sunday,which party, if any, would you vote for? (All respondents, Spontaneous response)
Servant of the People (Sluha Narodu) 15%
Opposition Platform – For Life (Za Zhyttia) 9%
European Solidarity 8%
Fatherland Party (Batkivshchyna) 4%
All-Ukrainian Union Freedom “Svoboda” 2%
Shariy Party 2%
Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko 2%
Syla i Chest 1%
Voice Political Party (Holos) 1%
Other* 5%
None, against all 1%
I will not vote 10%
Difficult to answer/No answer 41%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% *Options were not read to respondents. Responses named by less than 1 percent of respondents were merged into “Other.” 13 If local elections were held this coming Sunday, which party, if any, would you vote for? (Among those who intend to vote and named a party (n=1,025), Spontaneous response)
Servant of the People (Sluha Narodu) 30% Opposition Platform – For Life (Za Zhyttia) 17% European Solidarity 16% Fatherland Party (Batkivshchyna) 9% All-Ukrainian Union Freedom “Svoboda” 3% Shariy Party 3% Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko 3% Syla i Chest 2% Voice Political Party (Holos) 2% Ukrainian Strategy 2% Opposition Bloc 2% Gennady Kernes Bloc 1% Other* 6% None, against all 2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 14 *Options were not read to respondents. Responses named by less than 1 percent of respondents were merged into “Other.” Did you vote in the last parliamentary elections in Ukraine in 2019? Yes No Difficult to answer/No answer
1%
30%
69%
15 Assessment of the Central Authorities Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of … Approve Disapprove Difficult to answer/No answer
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy 42% 47% 10%
Cabinet of Ministers under Denys Shmyhal 17% 59% 24%
Parliament of Ukraine 16% 11% 73%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 17 Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy? Approve Disapprove Difficult to answer/No answer
Regions
Center 43% 47% 10%
South 42% 46% 12%
East 42% 50% 8%
West 41% 49% 11%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 18 Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy? Approve Disapprove Difficult to answer/No answer
Age, Gender, Income
16-29 64% 26% 10%
30-39 41% 47% 12%
40-49 42% 50% 8%
50-59 34% 55% 11%
60+ 33% 56% 10%
Women 43% 45% 12%
Men 41% 51% 9%
Secure income 46% 44% 10%
Adequate income 47% 43% 10%
Subsistence income 40% 50% 11%
Food insecure income 32% 58% 10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 19 Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of the Cabinet of Ministers under Denys Shmyhal? Approve Disapprove Difficult to answer/No answer Regions
East 20% 56% 24%
West 20% 56% 24%
Center 18% 61% 22%
South 14% 60% 26%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 20 Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of the Cabinet of Ministers under Denys Shmyhal? Approve Disapprove Difficult to answer/No answer Age, Gender, Income
16-29 30% 42% 28%
30-39 16% 59% 25%
40-49 18% 62% 21%
50-59 13% 66% 21%
60+ 13% 63% 24%
Women 18% 55% 27%
Men 17% 63% 20%
Secure income 24% 56% 21%
Adequate income 19% 55% 26%
Subsistence income 16% 60% 24%
Food insecure income 11% 66% 23%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 21 Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of the Parliament of Ukraine? Approve Disapprove Difficult to answer/No answer Regions
East 17% 72% 12%
Center 17% 73% 10%
South 16% 73% 12%
West 14% 75% 11%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 22 Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of the Parliament of Ukraine? Approve Disapprove Difficult to answer/No answer Age, Gender, Income
16-29 32% 57% 12%
30-39 15% 71% 14%
40-49 12% 79% 9%
50-59 10% 82% 9%
60+ 12% 77% 11%
Women 16% 71% 13%
Men 15% 76% 9%
Secure income 21% 68% 11%
Adequate income 19% 69% 12%
Subsistence income 13% 76% 11%
Food insecure income 7% 85% 8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 23 National Concerns What are the top three most important problems facing Ukraine today?*
Corruption 48%
Military conflict in the Donbas 43%
Unemployment 31%
Poor quality of healthcare 22%
Pensions 21%
Low level of manufacturing 19%
Coronavirus 14%
Government services for the poor 14%
Political instability 13%
Annexation of Crimea by Russia 8%
Inflation/Hryvnia devaluation 8%
Poor relations with Russia 7%
Crime 6%
Delays in salaries 5%
Other 5%
Difficult to answer/No answer 1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
*Respondents asked to choose top 3 options. 25 What are the top three most important problems facing Ukraine today?*
Age, Gender 16-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+ Men Women
Corruption 50% 51% 55% 50% 43% 55% 42%
Military conflict in the Donbas 38% 39% 42% 45% 48% 42% 43%
Unemployment 44% 37% 32% 26% 22% 28% 34%
Poor quality of healthcare 19% 23% 18% 24% 23% 14% 28%
Pensions 12% 11% 11% 18% 41% 14% 27%
Low level of manufacturing 14% 20% 20% 22% 20% 22% 17%
Coronavirus 17% 14% 15% 11% 12% 12% 15%
Government services for the poor 10% 15% 13% 15% 14% 10% 16%
Political instability 13% 17% 17% 13% 9% 16% 11%
Annexation of Crimea by Russia 9% 8% 7% 9% 8% 10% 6%
Inflation/Hryvnia devaluation 15% 8% 8% 6% 3% 8% 7%
Poor relations with Russia 8% 6% 9% 7% 8% 9% 6%
Crime 8% 4% 7% 7% 5% 6% 6%
Delays in salaries 7% 7% 6% 3% 1% 4% 5%
Other 0% 0% 2% 1% 1% 8% 5% Difficult to answer/No answer 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1%
*Respondents asked to choose top 3 options. 26 What are the top three most important problems facing Ukraine today?*
Region West Center South East
Corruption 49% 47% 52% 44%
Military conflict in the Donbas 43% 45% 38% 46%
Unemployment 36% 28% 31% 32%
Poor quality of healthcare 19% 22% 24% 23%
Pensions 24% 21% 20% 16%
Low level of manufacturing 13% 20% 23% 26%
Coronavirus 18% 15% 9% 10%
Government services for the poor 14% 13% 15% 11%
Political instability 16% 13% 11% 13%
Annexation of Crimea by Russia 8% 9% 8% 6%
Inflation/Hryvnia devaluation 7% 8% 7% 8%
Poor relations with Russia 5% 6% 10% 12%
Crime 4% 8% 7% 5%
Delays in salaries 5% 5% 4% 3%
Other 1% 0% 0% 2% Difficult to answer/No answer 2% 2% 1% 0%
*Respondents asked to choose top 3 options. 27 Assessment of Government Responses to COVID-19 Sample A Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of this authority’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic? Approve Disapprove Difficult to answer/No answer
Your local government 56% 34% 10%
President 49% 40% 11%
Cabinet of Ministers 36% 51% 12%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 29 Sample A Do you approve or disapprove of your local government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic? Approve Disapprove Difficult to answer/No answer Regions
East 61% 27% 12%
South 60% 29% 11%
Center 54% 36% 10%
West 54% 39% 8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 30 Sample A Do you approve or disapprove of your local government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic? Approve Disapprove Difficult to answer/No answer Age, Gender, Income
16-29 58% 37% 6%
30-39 58% 33% 10%
40-49 54% 35% 12%
50-59 53% 34% 12%
60+ 57% 31% 12%
Women 57% 33% 10%
Men 55% 34% 10%
Secure income 59% 32% 9%
Adequate income 60% 28% 11%
Subsistence income 56% 33% 11%
Food insecure income 48% 44% 9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 31 Sample A Do you approve or disapprove of the President’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic? Approve Disapprove Difficult to answer/No answer
Regions
East 53% 36% 11%
South 50% 39% 11%
Center 49% 39% 11%
West 47% 42% 12%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 32 Sample A Do you approve or disapprove of the President’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic? Approve Disapprove Difficult to answer/No answer Age, Gender, Income
16-29 66% 27% 7%
30-39 52% 39% 9%
40-49 43% 46% 11%
50-59 41% 47% 12%
60+ 44% 41% 15%
Women 52% 38% 11%
Men 46% 42% 12%
Secure income 52% 37% 11%
Adequate income 54% 34% 13%
Subsistence income 51% 40% 10%
Food insecure income 39% 51% 10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
33 Sample A Do you approve or disapprove of the Cabinet of Ministers’ handling of the coronavirus pandemic? Approve Disapprove Difficult to answer/No answer Regions
East 42% 47% 12%
South 36% 53% 12%
Center 37% 51% 13%
West 34% 53% 13%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 34 Sample A Do you approve or disapprove of the Cabinet of Ministers’ handling of the coronavirus pandemic? Approve Disapprove Difficult to answer/No answer Age, Gender, Income 16-29 55% 37% 9%
30-39 36% 53% 11%
40-49 31% 56% 12%
50-59 31% 57% 12%
60+ 30% 54% 16%
Women 36% 50% 15%
Men 37% 53% 10%
Secure income 43% 46% 10%
Adequate income 41% 46% 13%
Subsistence income 33% 53% 14%
Food insecure income 26% 63% 11%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 35 Sample A How serious is the coronavirus pandemic for you personally?
Very serious Somewhat serious Somewhat not serious Not at all serious Difficult to answer/No answer 2% 14%
24%
26%
34%
36 Sample A How serious is the coronavirus pandemic for you personally? Regions, Gender, Age Very serious Somewhat serious Somewhat not serious Not at all serious Difficult to answer/No answer
West 17% 30% 31% 21% 1%
East 11% 32% 29% 27% 1%
Center 14% 29% 37% 19% 2%
South 12% 18% 36% 32% 3%
Women 15% 28% 36% 21% 1%
Men 12% 26% 32% 28% 2%
60+ 22% 29% 31% 16% 2%
50-59 17% 33% 22% 25% 3%
40-49 12% 28% 33% 26% 2%
30-39 7% 20% 41% 30% 2%
16-29 7% 24% 42% 28% <1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 37 Sample A Do you wear a mask in crowded places? Always Sometimes Never Difficult to answer/No answer
6% 1%
21%
72%
38 Sample A Do you wear a mask in crowded places? Regions, Gender, Age Always Sometimes Never Difficult to answer/No answer
Center 77% 18% 3% 2%
East 74% 18% 6% 2%
West 73% 18% 8% 1%
South 63% 30% 7% <1%
Women 79% 16% 4%1%
Men 64% 28% 8% 1%
60+ 77% 15% 5% 3%
50-59 76% 20% 4%1%
40-49 75% 19% 6%1%
30-39 67% 27% 7%
16-29 65% 28% 7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 39 Future of Youth Sample B Do you think that today’s generation of young people has a good future in Ukraine or not? Good future Not a good future Difficult to answer/No answer
4%
28%
68%
41 Sample B Do you think that today’s generation of young people has a good future in Ukraine or not? Good future Not a good future Difficult to answer/No answer Regions Age, Income
16-29 37% 58% 5% West 29% 66% 5% 30-39 31% 64% 5%
40-49 30% 69% 1%
50-59 26% 71% 3% South 28% 69% 3%
60+ 19% 73% 8%
Center 28% 68% 4% Secure income 36% 60% 4%
Adequate income 33% 60% 7%
Subsistence income 23% 73% 5% East 25% 68% 7%
Food insecure income 17% 81% 2%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 42 Upcoming Local Elections Sample B Do you expect the upcoming local elections in Ukraine to be …
Completely free and fair Reasonably free and fair Flawed/not free and fair Seriously flawed or not free at all Difficult to answer/No answer
5% 7%
17%
37%
34%
44 Sample B Do you expect the upcoming local elections in Ukraine to be … Completely free and fair Reasonably free and fair Flawed/not free and fair Seriously flawed or not free at all Difficult to answer/No answer Regions
Center 4% 43% 33% 16% 3%
East 7% 36% 37% 15% 4%
South 8% 34% 33% 18% 6%
West 8% 32% 35% 18% 8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 45 Sample B Do you expect the upcoming local elections in Ukraine to be …? Completely free and fair Reasonably free and fair Flawed/not free and fair Seriously flawed or not free at all Difficult to answer/No answer Age, Gender, Income 16-29 10% 48% 26% 11% 5%
30-39 7% 39% 36% 15% 4%
40-49 7% 40% 30% 18% 5%
50-59 3% 31% 41% 19% 7%
60+ 6% 31% 37% 21% 6%
Women 8% 37% 35% 15% 5%
Men 5% 38% 33% 20% 5%
Secure income 5% 44% 28% 17% 6%
Adequate income 6% 46% 32% 11% 5%
Subsistence income 7% 32% 39% 17% 5%
Food insecure income 8% 24% 38% 26% 4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 46 Sources of Information Sample B Would you say you follow what’s going on in local government and local affairs? Most of the time Some of the time Only now and then Hardly at all Difficult to answer/No answer
<1% 17%
33%
19%
31% 48 Sample B Would you say you follow what’s going on in local government and local affairs? Most of the time Some of the time Only now and then Hardly at all Difficult to answer/No answer
Regions Age, Income
16-29 19% 32% 23% 25% 1%
West 35% 34% 19% 13%<1% 30-39 34% 25% 23% 17% <1%
40-49 30% 40% 16% 13%1%
50-59 31% 37% 18% 15% Center 35% 30% 18% 16% <1%
60+ 46% 25% 14% 15%<1%
South 31% 28% 19% 22% Secure income 39% 30% 15% 16% <1%
Adequate income 26% 35% 22% 17%
Subsistence income 31% 34% 20% 15% East 30% 33% 20% 17% <1%
Food insecure income 42% 22% 15% 21%1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 49 Sample B What are your main sources for information about what’s going on in local government and local affairs?*
Television news, programs 47%
Internet websites 46%
Social media- Facebook 34%
Relatives/Friends 25%
Newspapers/Magazines 18%
Social media- Telegram 11%
Social media- Instagram 10%
Radio 10%
Government websites/Government social media 9%
Social media- Viber 8%
Billboards/Flyers/Posters 3%
Social media- TikTok 2%
Other 3%
Difficult to answer/No answer 1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% *Multiple answers accepted. 50 Sample B What are your main sources for information about what’s going on in local government and local affairs?*
16-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+ West Center South East
Television news, programs 27% 35% 43% 55% 67% 54% 46% 42% 48%
Internet websites 60% 60% 57% 40% 23% 40% 45% 51% 51%
Social media- Facebook 44% 49% 44% 31% 14% 34% 34% 38% 30%
Relatives/Friends 23% 26% 22% 26% 27% 23% 26% 25% 25%
Newspapers/Magazines 7% 10% 13% 17% 37% 22% 19% 14% 17%
Social media- Telegram 26% 13% 11% 5% 3% 8% 12% 12% 9%
Social media- Instagram 28% 13% 6% 5% 2% 9% 10% 12% 9%
Radio 5% 7% 6% 10% 17% 11% 11% 6% 8%
Government websites/Government 15% 12% 8% 8% 3% 10% 8% 9% 7% social media
Social media- Viber 11% 11% 6% 8% 4% 7% 6% 11% 8%
Billboards/Flyers/Posters 3% 5% 2% 3% 3% 2% 4% 3% 3%
Social media- TikTok 6% 3% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Other 3% 1% 2% 3% 4% 3% 1% 2% 4% Difficult to answer/No answer 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2%
*Multiple answers accepted. 51 Demographics Demographics Women 55%
Men 45% GENDER 16-29 19% 30-39 20%
40-49 17% AGE 50-59 17% 60+ 28% Primary /Non-complete secondary 4% General secondary 18% Vocational secondary 33%
Higher/Non-complete higher 45% EDUCATION Difficult to answer/No answer 1% I do not work 43% Private 34% State 20% Public, nongovernmental
SECTOR OF 3% EMPLOYMENT Difficult to answer/No answer 2% Ukrainian 49% Russian 25% Ukrainian and Russian 25% Other LANGUAGE 1%
SPOKEN AT HOME Difficult to answer/No answer <1% Oblast center 34% City/Town 34%
T TYPE Rural 31% SETTLEMEN 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 53 Demographics
There is not enough money even for food 18%
There is enough for everyday expenses, but it is difficult 30% to buy clothes
Basically enough, but not enough for buy expensive items 28%
Enough for almost anything, but buying an apartment or a 19%
house is not possible. FINANCIAL STATUS FINANCIAL
We deny ourselves practically nothing 4%
Difficult to answer/No answer 2%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
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