L E T U S FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN

WES STREETING MP

FABIAN IDEAS NO.651 61 Petty France SW1H 9EU www.fabians.org.uk

Fabian Ideas 651

First published March 2020 ISBN 978-0-7163-0651-1

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To find out more about the Fabian Society, the , the Fabian Women’s Network and our local societies, please visit our website at www.fabians.org.uk FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN MP

FOREWORD 2 There is No Hope in Nostalgia

INTRODUCTION 4 Back to the Future: It’s Not Just a Change of Leadership We Need, It’s a Change of Direction

CHAPTER 1 7 Economic Inequality: A Tale of Two Britains

CHAPTER 2 18 Our Ageing Society: Living Good Lives, Not Just Longer Lives

CHAPTER 3 26 Technological Revolution: Creating a Future That Works for Everyone

CHAPTER 4 35 Climate Emergency: ‘Cathedral Thinking’ to Tackle the Climate Breakdown

CHAPTER 5 41 Shifting Global Power: Defending and Extending Democracy, Freedom and Human Rights

CONCLUSION 51 People, Places and Planet: A New Story for Our Party and a Brighter Future for Our Country

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 54

ENDNOTES 55 FOREWORD

THERE IS NO HOPE IN NOSTALGIA

…the old is dying and the centre-right parties, shipwrecked the new cannot be born; in this centre left and given rise to populism interregnum a great variety and extremism. of morbid symptoms appear. The 2019 general election result – Antonio Gramsci means that the policies and the priorities of a resurgent Conservative party Our mission is simple: to renew will define our country’s direction at the Labour party so that we can a pivotal moment. is happening, rebuild our country. Britain is deeply but the greatest risk for our country divided, economically, culturally and is the politics of Brexit trapping politically. The social contract that has us in an argument about a better underpinned the United Kingdom since yesterday, instead of building a plan the creation of the welfare state after for a better tomorrow. 1945 is unravelling. We have lost our The scale of Labour’s defeat is clear. sense of common purpose and a shared We have suffered four election defeats understanding of our place in the world. in a row and 2019 saw our worst result It is no exaggeration to state that our since 1935. We are on life support in current malaise is an existential crisis, Scotland. We are on a final warning in for it is not a given that our ‘disunited Wales and large parts of the north and kingdom’ will survive the next decade. midlands of England. We are irrelevant Britain’s crisis does not exist in in the south outside of London and a vacuum. Across liberal democracies major university towns and cities. the long tail effects of the global The problem was not just Corbyn, financial crisis, the economics of but Corbynism. It saddled us with austerity, rapid deindustrialisation a manifesto that people didn’t believe and the hollowing out of towns and in, a world view that people reviled communities have combined with and a culture that people feared. concern about high levels of migration These problems were not just to form a perfect storm that has battered foreseeable, but foreseen. Ideological

2 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN dogma, vanity and hubris meant that Many will discover first-hand the grim the warning signs were not heeded. It reality of our social insecurity system. didn’t have to be this way and we can There is a risk that climate change never allow this to happen again. Losing will fall even further down the agenda isn’t radical. Our aim isn’t to ‘hold of world leaders. Collective global the government to account’, it is to be leadership in response to the pandemic the government. When Labour loses, has been noticeably lacking since the the country loses. crisis began. If a ‘wartime effort’ is There is no future for the Labour required to bring Britain through this party if the debate about our direction crisis, we have a responsibility to build becomes locked in an ideological battle a better economy, society and world in between two competing visions of the its aftermath, just as we did in 1945. past instead of building a politics that I am grateful to the Fabian Society unites the country around a vision for for publishing this work. It does not the future. There is no hope in nostalgia. pretend to contain all the answers. The Labour party wins when it No one individual or political tradi- turns its face firmly to the future, as it tion has a monopoly on wisdom or did in the 1945 manifesto with Let Us virtue. If this fact had been realised Face The Future, in 1966 with Time for and appreciated – not just in recent Decision and in 1997 with : years, but in recent decades – our Because Britain Deserves Better. This collective politics would be stronger. pamphlet is a new attempt to do the The Fabian Society does recognise this same. It considers how we might build fact, which is why it has been a place for a new centre-left politics to address the open-minded and good-hearted debate crisis facing our country, as well as how and disagreement about the future of we build the foundations to confront the left since 1884. In that spirit, my five key challenges ahead: economic ine- arguments are unapologetically rooted quality, an ageing society, technological in the mainstream centre-left traditions revolution, the climate emergency and that changed this country for the better shifting global power. under five Labour prime ministers and These challenges have been the revisionist tradition that understands thrown into sharp relief by the corona- that our lasting values have to be applied virus pandemic, the extent of which was to the challenges of the future. becoming clear just as this pamphlet The country is looking for more than was going to print. It has underlined the a protest against past wrongs. Let us fragility of our economy and the insecu- face the future again. rity of our society. Older and vulnerable people have been left dangerously Wes Streeting MP exposed because of the social care crisis. March 2020

3 INTRODUCTION

BACK TO THE FUTURE: IT’S NOT JUST A CHANGE OF LEADERSHIP WE NEED, IT’S A CHANGE OF DIRECTION

We have now to rethink the of England, mostly concentrated in philosophical foundations of our university towns and cities. But we also socialism under highly unfavourable have a problem in the north east and conditions, because we must square north west of England, where Labour our philosophy with the conditions lost 20 seats; Yorkshire and the Humber, of the world of today and tomorrow, where Labour lost nine seats; the east unless we are content to be merely Midlands, where Labour lost seven the dying advocates of a lost cause. seats; the west Midlands, where Labour – GDH Cole lost nine seats; and the east of England, where Labour is down to five seats In its present condition, the Labour from seven. party is unable to deliver the change Seats that have returned Labour our country needs. The defeat on MPs for the best part of a century went 12 December 2019 was on such Conservative. Even in London, which a scale that it requires an equally urgent returned the single Labour gain of the and seismic response. Honesty is the election, we also lost a seat and Labour’s best policy. vote share went down by 6.4 per cent. After the previous run of four In Wales, the Conservatives achieved successive election defeats in 1992, their best result since 1983. With the Giles Radice published a seminal sole exception of Alyn and Deeside, pamphlet for the Fabian Society entitled Labour’s representation is confined Southern Discomfort, analysing what to south Wales. In Scotland, Labour he described as ‘Labour’s southern is on life support with just a single MP problem’. If only things were that for the second time in three elections. simple now. Labour still has a southern The Conservatives outperformed problem, with only 14 seats outside Labour in every social class. The of London in the whole of the south crossover age at which people were

4 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN more likely to vote Tory fell from 47 to political leadership. After 2010, Labour 39. Among working-class voters, they had to define a fresh and coherent vision enjoyed a 15-point lead, winning to meet the challenges of a post-crash more votes than Labour amongst world. But ’s team couldn’t manual workers and households with shake off the Tory attack that ‘Labour incomes below £20,000.1 For a party crashed the economy’, or comfortably founded to represent the interests of frame a forward-looking argument working-class people, this raises serious without appearing to join in the attack existential questions. on Labour’s record. The uncomfortable truth is that In many ways, the election of Jeremy Labour’s problems can’t be reduced Corbyn as leader of the Labour party to ‘southern discomfort’ or the collapse was a direct response to this malaise. of the ‘red wall’. We have a problem In place of process-focused, technocratic everywhere. The problem is the thinking, he painted in primary colours, Labour party. offering ‘straight-talking honest politics’. Since it was founded in 1900, the In place of top-down machine politics, Labour party has contested 31 general he promised party democracy. In place elections and won a working majority of coarse political debate, he promised in only five of them: in 1945, 1966, kinder, gentler politics. 1997, 2001 and 2005. By any standards, But rather than reversing Labour’s this is a lamentable record for a major decline, ’s leadership political party. The pattern has become exacerbated it. Labour went into all too familiar: prolonged periods of the general election with the most opposition, interspersed with periods unpopular leader of the opposition since of Labour government that delivered records began. Corbynism saddled us meaningful and sometimes lasting with a manifesto that people didn’t change for our country, perennially believe in, with an endless wishlist of plagued by dogma and division about promises that led to real questions about what the Labour party is for and who whether they were achievable, let alone it is supposed to represent. The conse- desirable. It offered a worldview that quence has been a Conservative century. people reviled, from the response to the The roots of Labour’s present crisis poisoning of the Skripals in Salisbury predate Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership of to a back catalogue of public statements the Labour party. New Labour pro- about terrorists that led voters to foundly misunderstood globalisation: question whether the Labour Party it was seen as an inevitable fact of life would side with our country’s enemies and uncritical support for it became over our friends. It presided over an unwise test of our modernising a culture that people feared, with the credentials. Globalisation should rather unchecked spread of a toxic, antisemitic, have been viewed as a construct of conspiracy theorist politics that saw political decisions, which needed to Jewish MPs and members hounded be managed and shaped by progressive out of the Labour Party.

5 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651

It cannot be denied that Brexit was The next leader of the Labour party a serious problem for Labour at the 2019 needs to hit the reset button loudly election, but this provides little cover for enough that the voters notice. That an abject failure of leadership. Strong doesn’t mean that we need to jettison political parties shouldn’t be merely every policy, embrace the damaging victims of political events, they should economics of austerity or seek solace in define the narrative and the response past victories. But it does mean building to the challenges facing our country. a transformational economic policy that Whichever way the Labour party turned, people can believe in, a worldview that it risked alienating swathes of voters. provides security and opportunity in This would have been true even if we’d a turbulent world and a political culture had a genuinely pro-European leader. that is open, welcoming and inclusive. But instead of making a principled We are in the early stages of a new argument with clarity and conviction, parliament. Our choices now will deter- Corbynism triangulated on the biggest mine whether this moment will mark question facing our country and, in the start of a march back to power, the aiming to please both sides, ended up midpoint of another long period in the pleasing neither. Worse still, our leaders wilderness or a death spiral that brings willingly embraced an election on Boris to an end an interesting century-long Johnson’s terms, labouring under the experiment called the Labour party. delusion we were ‘election ready’. In short, it is not just a change There is no future for the Labour of leadership we need, it is a change party in Corbynism without Corbyn. of direction.

6 CHAPTER 1

ECONOMIC INEQUALITY: A TALE OF TWO BRITAINS

The political problem of mankind Britain’s one per cent have seen their is to combine three things: share of household income triple in the economic efficiency, social last four years whilst ordinary people justice and individual liberty. have struggled.2 The last decade saw – John Maynard Keynes the slowest growth in living standards since the second world war. Ours is a great country full of promise and Hard work does not necessarily opportunity. One of the richest countries in guarantee even a basic standard of liv- the world, we have world-class universities, ing. Wages have failed to keep up with entrepreneurs and captains of industry, living costs. Fourteen million people groundbreaking scientists and inventors, live on incomes below the poverty line, globally renowned artists, and a vibrant including 4 million children.3 Outright civil society. gender discrimination exists and is But this is also a country of stagger- entrenched by this economic structure, ing inequality, intolerable poverty and with complex factors constraining the wasted potential. Our economic model employment options open to women, isn’t working for the majority of people trapping many in part-time jobs and and the social contract that underpins in-work poverty with little opportunity our country is broken. for wage growth or promotion. Black, Asian and minority ethnic people face INEQUALITY TODAY barriers throughout their lives including Wealth and income inequalities in educational attainment gaps, precar- the UK are stark. The richest 10 per cent of ious employment, and the continuing households own 45 per cent of the nation’s hostile environment. wealth, while the poorest 50 per cent Inequality and the poverty it creates own less than 10 per cent. The average have led to an increasing number of FTSE 100 chief executive is paid 145 what the economist Sir Angus Deaton times more than the average worker and calls ‘deaths of despair’, caused by

7 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651 drug and alcohol abuse due to financial the economic storm clouds for the hardship and hopelessness. The rate global economy over the coming decade, of these deaths amongst men has more a concern echoed by the outgoing than doubled since the early 1990s.4 governor of the Bank of England, The human consequences of economic Mark Carney. inequality are clear in government The IPPR warns that by 2030, statistics: people are needlessly dying. stagnation will be the new normal, These economic divisions are not and that we are in for a low-growth, merely drawn across our class system low-productivity and low-interest but across the regions and nations of rate decade, with weak investment our country. Britain is home to nine and labour power. Slow income of the 10 poorest regions in western growth and a less supportive welfare Europe, but also the richest: inner system will make the 2020s a period London West. A child on free school of stagnation that will be felt acutely meals in Hackney is still three times by low-income households. As well more likely to attend university than an as the inequality between the richest equally poor child in Hartlepool. The and poorest, the UK’s sharp, growing gap in productivity between English and unprecedented intergenerational regions is worth around £40bn per year,5 differences will become more pro- with productivity in the south east and nounced. By 2030, almost 40 per cent of London standing at 50 per cent above all under-40s are forecast to be living the national average.6 back home with their parents – up from In the last 40 years, we have wit- 14 per cent today.7 nessed a significant decline in the UK’s The coming decade will see signif- manufacturing base with serious social icant changes to the structure of our consequences in former industrial towns economy and the labour market, not and profound political consequences least as a result of technological devel- in the form of Brexit. People have seen opments discussed in chapter three. their jobs disappear as a result of one of 140,000 retail jobs were lost in 2019 the largest deindustrialisations of any and some estimates forecast retail job major nation, with production exported losses of up to 2 million over the coming to countries with cheaper labour costs decade,8 while sectors like education, through outsourcing or being lost health and care are expected to grow, altogether to labour-saving technology. as are jobs in business services, creative industries and the digital economy. THE CHALLENGES AHEAD The extent to which self-employment The World Economic Forum has and job insecurity will become the norm warned that unsustainable asset is contested territory, but insecure hours, prices, high levels of indebtedness constraints on in-work benefits and the and the ‘limited firepower’ available to concentration of decent, well-paid jobs governments and central banks in the in the south east are already leaving too event of another major crisis are forming many people with a poor quality of life.

8 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN

Public finances will be under pressure, FACING THE FUTURE particularly as a result of the rising costs The liberal market settlement born of climate change, pensions, health and of Thatcherism is not up to the job of social care. The tax gap between receipts rebuilding Britain’s economy to work and expenditure is expected to grow. in the interests of everyone, but nor are Each of these challenges would the often hierarchical and paternalistic be difficult to negotiate in normal institutions of our existing welfare state. circumstances, but the UK will need Both require reimagination to meet the to do so whilst extracting itself from challenges of the 21st century. the most sophisticated political and A strong economy and a just society economic alliance in the world. Much go hand in hand. This should be the depends on the nature of the future central goal of Labour’s economic policy. relationship negotiated between the Disraeli’s description of England in the UK government and the European 19th century as “two nations between Union. Boris Johnson’s planned whom there is no intercourse and no divergence from the EU’s institutions sympathy; who are as ignorant of each and regulations is certain to bring other’s habits, thoughts, and feelings, as higher economic costs. Our exit will be if they were dwellers in different zones, built on an unsteady foundation, with or inhabitants of different planets” has existing growth in 2019 at its lowest remarkable salience today. We need rate outside of a recession since the to be able to speak to the hope and second world war. Even with spending ambitions of every region, nation and increases to soften the blow, the IFS section of society. We need to enter the forecasts that growth will only rise next election having already persuaded 0.5 per cent in the near future as we people on middle and high incomes of begin negotiations. In November 2018, the shared benefits of lifting 4 million Theresa May’s government prepared children out of poverty and having economic forecasts of potential addressed concerns among all income Brexit deals. The forecast closest to groups about our ability to spend their today’s plan, the free trade agreement money wisely. scenario, ‘would see GDP between 4.9 per cent and 6.7 per cent lower EARNING TRUST compared with staying in the EU, needs to win back trust that depending on immigration policy. we can deliver on our promises and be Trade with the EU under this sce- trusted with people’s money. At the 2019 nario is estimated to be 25 per cent general election, nearly two-thirds of lower – and 5 per cent higher with the public weren’t convinced our policies non-EU countries – than if the UK had were achievable, let alone desirable. The remained in the EU.’ 9 A United King- credibility of the ‘fully costed manifesto’, dom weakened economically by Brexit which was already being tested as will find it increasingly difficult to a result of plans to increase proposed address the global challenges we face. spending from around £50bn in 2017

9 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651 to £80bn in 2019, was put under further policymaking bodies to ensure that stress by a nationalisation programme every penny committed is directed that Labour refused to put a price on, towards just aims or otherwise justified. repeating often the unconvincing line Labour must never again go into an that ‘parliament will set the price’. election with a manifesto less - It was then damaged further by ive than the Liberal Democrats’. a seemingly last-minute proposal to Labour doesn’t need to embrace nationalise BT’s broadband business, the politics of austerity to be credible. with figures as high as £100bn being Demographic pressures on budgets mooted. It was then finally shot to pieces for health, social care and pensions, by the subsequent announcement of an the need to rebuild public services additional £58bn compensation package after a decade of swingeing cuts and for WASPI women, which even the changes to the nature of global threats proposed beneficiaries saw as too good to national security all point towards to be true. the need to spend more. The public We must re-learn the language understand that we can’t demand Scan- of priorities. Why did our manifesto dinavian public services on American commit to spending over ten times more taxes, but they do need convincing that on higher education than on lifelong Labour will be careful with their money. learning, and more than double than So alongside a commitment to raise was proposed for early years or schools public spending as a share of national when the evidence suggests investment income, Labour should have clear in these areas creates more socially fiscal rules committing us to balancing just outcomes? Why was providing day-to-day spending with revenues free broadband a greater priority than over the course of a parliament and an providing free childcare or social care? explanation of how much we plan to Where Labour’s goals were progressive borrow to invest and why this represents and desirable, like the pledge to abolish good value. in-work poverty during the lifetime of The strongest defence for Labour’s a parliament, they weren’t afforded the 2019 manifesto is that its proposed resources needed to achieve them. Even increases in the size of the state and the Liberal Democrats’ commitment to public ownership were not dissimilar increase benefits for the low-paid were from other successful European more generous than Labour’s. economies, including the strongest: Alongside a fully costed manifesto, Germany. But the scale and pace of Labour should publish a distributional change on offer was not achievable – analysis of all tax and spending and it was not seen to be achievable commitments to show how they by voters. Labour’s next leadership would affect households with different should set out a bold and ambitious levels of income. This type of analysis vision for our country’s future, but should appear alongside every policy offer a simple, practical and believable put forward for adoption by Labour’s manifesto for a five-year parliament

10 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN that gives voters the confidence to elect property. It could be replaced altogether a Labour government. with a lifetime gifts tax. There is a strong case for increasing A FAIR AND HONEST TAX POLICY corporation tax and for taking further Increases in public spending require action on multinational tax avoidance. increases in tax. This was well under- The rate of corporation tax is by far the stood by a sceptical public, who did lowest in the G7 with little discernible not believe that Labour’s spending evidence to justify the current main rate plans only involved increases in tax for of 19 per cent. Increasing corporation tax the wealthiest five per cent and large to 24 per cent would still leave the UK corporations. Similarly, while a focus with one of the lowest rates in the G7. on improving productivity and wealth Many of Labour’s 2019 manifesto creation to boost tax revenues is correct, policies would have created other tax these revenues alone are not enough burdens for businesses higher than in to meet even existing pressures on the almost all advanced economies. There public finances and our public services. were serious questions about whether It is time to put fairness and justice at they would generate the revenues the heart of our tax system. suggested, and if they would lead to Increased concentrations of wealth losses of jobs and investment to the UK. and growing levels of intergenerational For example, the proposal to introduce inequality necessitate a greater focus on a unilateral financial transactions wealth taxation. It is unacceptable that tax in place of a multinational effort those who have worked hard end up would have been an extraordinarily paying more in tax than those who have bad decision for a global centre for gained from investments or dividends. financial trading. Labour’s manifesto was right to argue There are a number of steps by that capital gains tax should be taxed which the UK could clamp down on tax on the same basis as tax on income – avoidance by corporations or tax havens. a policy previously proposed by the The abuse of charitable vehicles to buy IFS and the IPPR – and that the poorly property and avoid stamp duty land named and targeted ‘entrepreneurs’ tax should be tackled by HMRC and relief’, described by the Resolution the Charity Commission. High-value Foundation as ‘the UK’s worst tax break’, commercial property is usually not should be abolished. subject to stamp duty land tax, because The current system of inheritance tax the property is held in special purpose is indefensible. The rich are notoriously companies and it is the shares in those good at avoiding it and the rest are companies – rather than the real estate too often unnecessarily worried about itself – which is sold. It would be fair and it. Serious reform is required, which right to apply stamp duty land tax to the could include capping or scrapping sale of those shares. A withholding over-generous reliefs and allowances, tax could be introduced on payments to like the exemptions for business tax havens. Tech companies engaged in

11 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651 tax avoidance could face a withholding investment, poor access to finance, weak tax or be subjected to licensing fees and exports, poor productivity and market conditions in order to operate in the UK. dominance by multinationals. Business will only deliver the tax The Labour party is not an receipts for future Labour governments anti-capitalist party. To paraphrase to spend if our fiscal policy strikes Churchill, capitalism is the worst the right balance between making economic system except for all those sure they pay their fair share without other systems which have been tried incentivising them to take their jobs from time to time. We oppose excessive and activity elsewhere. concentrations of corporate power and are determined to break up monopolies REFORMING CAPITALISM and oligopolies. We want to see an There is a vacancy for a pro-enterprise end to crony capitalism, facilitated by party in British politics. The Conserv- poor political judgement, that allows atives have built Britain’s anaemic public services to be outsourced, profits economic recovery on weak founda- privatised, the risk kept with the state, tions. Their Brexit approach is at best big bucks paid to company directors indifferent, and at worst actively hostile, and workers stripped of their decent to the concerns of British business. Who terms and conditions. is a can be surprised, when our own prime prime example of this. The next Labour minister is famously reported as saying: government should work with the best “Fuck business”? of British business to reform the worst Businesses offer Britain a lot of British capitalism. more than tax receipts for Labour Action should be taken to improve governments to spend on public the diversity of company boards, with services. Companies create jobs and a requirement for companies to publish opportunities. Private enterprises clear action plans for achieving gender innovate and create. They supply balance and the widening of diversity. products and services from everyday As part of a broader set of proposals for essentials to life-changing enhance- industrial democracy, every public and ments. They build physical and digital private sector organisation with more infrastructure. Britain’s private sector than 250 employees should have elected is home to world-leading industry. The employee representation on their board Labour party shouldn’t just claim to be and remuneration committees. Report- pro-business. We should mean it. ing on pay gaps for women and ethnic But capitalism is now in crisis. minority groups should be mandatory. The promise of capitalism – that each Labour’s plans for nationalisation generation fares better than the last – were too easily portrayed as being is broken and with it the social contract based on an ideological attachment to of our country. This crisis of capitalism the past rather than a plan for Britain’s is bad for the businesses which are future. The East Coast mainline hampered by short-termism, low demonstrates the viability of a model

12 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN for public ownership where autonomous if more businesses were to become state-sponsored companies run cooperatives or employee-owned like public services in the public interest. John Lewis. Heavy-handed mandatory The Labour party should review transfers of shares would create nothing each proposed nationalisation in our but ill-will, costly legal battles and manifesto, assessing the merits of each damage to the UK’s reputation for on the basis of three criteria: which upholding the rule of law. Instead, we model would give the public the best should be looking at ways to encourage experience of the service, which model and incentivise existing business owners would provide best value for money to pass their business to employees and/ and which model would best level up or customers when they retire. We could parts of the country that have been left combine the proposal above to abolish behind? As well as rediscovering the inheritance tax exemption for business language of priorities, the Labour party property with a new inheritance tax and must re-learn the distinction between capital gains exemption for business ends and means. The means of achiev- owners who give their businesses over ing a goal are important, but it is the to a trust for the benefit of customers end goal that matters most. and/or employees. The most outrageous policy in Changing the world of work for good Labour’s manifesto was for a so-called is not just a TUC or Labour slogan; it ‘inclusive ownership fund’. This would is central to reforming capitalism to have required 10 per cent of the shares work in the interests of everyone. Better in all UK companies with more than pay, better conditions and better job 250 employees to be owned by a state security are the key indicators of social fund, with dividends shared between progress, but our economy is heading employees and capped at £500, with in the wrong direction with more the rest being paid to the exchequer. people experiencing insecure work and Promoting greater employee ownership millions not earning enough to make is a noble ambition. Anchor share- ends meet. The next Labour government holdings could promote longer-term should enhance employment rights thinking within the boardroom. But and protections as part of a new Good this was little more than a shameless tax Work Commission, modelled on the grab and a brazen attempt to nationalise Low Pay Commission and outlined a significant chunk of British business, further in chapter three, with those deceitfully sold as a plan to promote rights negotiated between employers employee ownership. and trades unions. The cooperative movement is an important part of Labour’s history and, REIMAGINING THE STATE despite its recent difficulties, the historic Just as elements of the left need to model of the Co-op remains a model for accept that business and industry have how some businesses can be run for the a pivotal role in bringing about a fair benefit of all. The country would benefit and just society, so the right must

13 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651 understand the pivotal role of the state high-quality hard infrastructure like in creating conditions in which business transport, housing, broadband and and industry can thrive. This is not sim- energy, as well as human infrastructure ply about rehearsing the tired argument like education, childcare, health, leisure that there is no such thing as an entirely and social care. free market, and that the state needs to It is no coincidence that the UK has regulate effectively to ensure fairness one of the most centralised systems of and competition; it is about recog- government in the western world and nising the active contribution of state staggering levels of regional inequality. investment in infrastructure, research The last Labour government delivered and innovation, a case well-made by an asymmetrical settlement that gave economist Mariana Mazzucato’s work power to Scotland, Wales, Northern on ‘the entrepreneurial state’. Ireland and London, but left the ques- Theresa May’s government accepted tion of English devolution unanswered. the need for an industrial strategy for The next Labour government should the UK, but the end product fell short preside over the biggest devolution of of the ambition established by its own power in British history, shifting power Industrial Strategy Commission. The and resources from Whitehall out across Labour party should take the final report England as well as to the devolved of the commission as the starting point governments of Scotland, Wales and for developing a new industrial strategy Northern Ireland. While every citizen for the next Labour government. As in every part of the country should be argues powerfully in entitled to good standards of service and her pamphlet, The Everyday Economy, the same universal basic infrastructure, the government’s industrial strategy there is no reason to believe that policies pays little attention to the services, around economic development, health production, consumption and social and social care, community safety infrastructure that lie at the heart of our and housing are better developed in lives, from the low-paid service sectors Westminster than in the communities like hospitality and retail to areas like that they serve. transportation, social care and the More equitable public transport utilities, which employ 40 per cent of the investment across our regions is workforce in England and Wales with necessary but insufficient to make the similar levels across the country. system work. London benefits from As Reeves argues, to meet the needs regulated public transport answerable to of the everyday economy, Labour should its mayor through Transport for London take up the challenge of the Industrial and it is time elected representatives Strategy Commission and create a plan across Britain had similar powers, plus guaranteeing every citizen in every coordinating powers for organisations part of the UK access to a universal like Transport for the North. basic infrastructure, going further than In place of the lopsided approach the commission proposes to include of the current system of English metro

14 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN mayors, there should be a consistent over their own lives. The cynicism about and well-understood model of local whether Brexit really will give them that power and decision-making developed control is understandable, but these are on a cross-party basis with the Local positive aspirations. Surely the Labour Government Association. An either/ party exists to make sure that we have or contest between cities and towns is a government that will make such self-defeating when the opportunities hopes a reality. and lives of the citizens in both are so Members of parliament, so clearly interdependent. They must grow often portrayed as out of touch, see together and we should incorporate the consequences of the failure of learning about the ‘everyday economy’ the modern welfare state every week to ensure our approach relates to the through our constituency casework: complexity of people’s lives as they a social insecurity system that punishes experience them and not as some and penalises the unemployed into inconvenient data subset. further hardship, destitution and Without resources, devolved ill-health; health services that all-too institutions will always be reliant on often leave patients feeling like they the centre. That is why sharing power are being processed, rather than treated must also be accompanied by a new and supported; an education system local government finance settlement ill-equipped to provide personalised agreed on three-year cycles to allow support for children who need it; for better financial planning and new families pushed from pillar to post revenue-raising powers in the hands of and away from relatives and support local decision-makers, including greater networks in overcrowded, temporary freedom to borrow to build new homes bed-and-breakfast accommodation; to meet local needs. refugees fleeing violence and conflict Reimagining the state is not just in search of sanctuary enduring further about devolving power from one set of suffering and the indignity of hand politicians to another, but about giving outs because they are prevented from people real control and agency over earning their own keep. MPs see endless their own lives and destinies. On the examples of human misery at our advice night Britain left the European Union, surgeries, many of which are made one abiding image was of two women worse – not better – by their encounters interviewed on national television with the state. The professionals who about why they voted leave. They were choose to dedicate their lives to public subsequently ridiculed on social media service experience this failure, too. for ‘not knowing what it was that they It is why so many of them are leaving had voted for’. In fact, they articulated professions they spent time and money clearly why they voted to leave the EU: training to join. they believed it would give our country Part of the solution for our broken more say over our own laws and they social contract lies in restoring a social believed it would give them more say security system worthy of the name.

15 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651

In her report, Making Ends Meet, doing things with people, rather than Alison McGovern identifies a series to them or for them. of immediate priorities to end the Labour doesn’t have to wait to be need for food banks: ending the in government to develop some of two-child limit in universal credit these ideas into practical proposals to restore support to 250,000 children, for improving people’s quality of life. reducing the waiting time for universal Labour is already in power in commu- credit payments, increasing child benefit nities across England and Scotland, as to lift 300,000 children out of poverty well as nationally in Wales. We should and investing in disability support pioneer our new approach with groups and childcare. affected by what some GPs famously We must also ensure that people feel describe as ’shit life syndrome’, ending a sense of safety and security in their the indignity and ineffectiveness of own homes and communities. It is no publicly funded service providers coincidence that ‘tough on crime and marching into their lives to do things tough on the causes of crime’ was one ‘to’ them. We should draw on the many of the few New Labour soundbites to examples of best practice identified by make it into a Corbyn manifesto. It Cottam, including working with people speaks to the desire of the public to feel to help them plan their own way out of safe and to see criminal activity met challenges like poverty, unemployment with justice, but also their recognition or underemployment, ill-health or of the complex causes of crime and their struggles to care for loved ones. a belief that prevention is better than We should innovate, experiment and cure. Beyond criticising cuts to police take calculated risks; scale up what numbers, Labour has had little to say works and learn from what doesn’t. As on law and order for the last four years. Cottam’s work demonstrates, this style Labour’s new leadership should make of delivery would be cheaper to deliver this a priority. but, more importantly, it would lead to Longer term, we must completely better outcomes. reimagine the state. In her widely Complementing this approach is acclaimed book, Radical Help, Hilary Mazzucato’s work on ‘mission-oriented Cottam applies her experience of innovation policy’, which focuses on working with UK families and commu- big challenges that require system-wide nities across the world to find ways to transformation across different return to the founding principles of the industries and sectors and partnerships welfare state – reinventing it for modern between the state, private sector, third times on the basis of building strong sector and wider civil society. It rec- relationships with people to help them ognises the need for strong direction lead good lives and flourish. Cottam’s from above, but also the value of work forms part of a growing call for the bottom-up experimentation.10 state to be better at responding to the The coronavirus pandemic is not needs of people: showing flexibility and simply a public health crisis, but an

16 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN economic one. Any pronouncement here in precarious work should be seen as on the short-term response needed is a wake-up call to start preparing for likely to be overtaken by events, but it the challenges posed by the technolog- is clear at the time of publication that ical revolution that lies ahead, which the demand and supply side shocks chapter three considers. We can not will be simultaneous and severe. This afford to let this crisis distract us from will necessitate a response more akin the existential threat of climate change, to wartime than the 2007–8 financial so we must seize this opportunity to crisis in terms of state intervention to make our recovery a green recovery, prevent businesses and entire industries with the measures described in chapter collapsing under the strain. The focus four. Should anyone still be attracted must be on saving livelihoods, as well by the siren call of the populists as lives. and nativists, we must argue with If the coronavirus crisis demands renewed vigour and conviction that a wartime response, we should give global problems require global solution. serious consideration to the peace that We need to rebuild global institutions will follow. When future generations to give people a sense of safety and look back on our response to this security in a dangerous world, just pandemic, they should be able to do so as chapter five suggests. with the same pride that our generation As William Beveridge said when looks back on the legacy of the Attlee his landmark report laid the foundations government. It could be a moment of the welfare state: “A revolutionary that further entrenches inequality, or moment in the world’s history is it could be the turning point when we a time for revolutions, not for patching.” decided as a country to socialise risk This is such a moment. It is time to and to give everyone a stake in success. commission a 21st century Beveridge Never again should we fail older and report to meet the future with a disabled people by leaving them so genuinely forward-looking plan to dangerously exposed as a result of our rebuild our economy, reimagine our broken social care system. The level of state and create a good quality of life social insecurity experienced by people for everyone in good times and bad.

17 CHAPTER 2

OUR AGEING SOCIETY: LIVING GOOD LIVES, NOT JUST LONGER LIVES

Policy-makers and broadcasters do state is spectacularly ill-equipped to not talk about a flourishing old age, address. We need to mobilise around much less enlightenment. Rather, a plan to address this crisis today they routinely speak of ‘time-bombs’ whilst agreeing a longer-term strategy and ‘burdens’, of the ‘flood-gates’. to meet the changing profile of our We need to reinvent. population over the coming decades. – Hilary Cottam To do this, we need to be brave, taking on some difficult political arguments Laying the foundations of our welfare about how we build a society that cares, state was a revolutionary response to how we pay for it and how we attract an epochal moment for our country. But people from around the world to join there was one area where the Beveridge the UK’s workforce. blueprint was entirely unrevolutionary, even counter-revolutionary: the THE CRISIS TODAY provision of care. The extent of the present crisis is well The founders of the welfare state documented and the failure to tackle didn’t worry about care because there it is unforgivable. Over the course of was already a simple answer: women the last decade, the social care safety would do it. While society as a whole net has been gradually cut to pieces. no longer expects women to live lives Government spending on adult social of domestic servitude, the reality is care in England fell from an average that where caring roles need to be filled of £346 per person in 2010/11 to £324 in the family, women are still more in 2017/18.11 Restrictive means-testing likely to take up those responsibilities and pressure to ‘deliver more for less’ than men. have impacted on the availability, Britain is in the midst of a social quality and consistency of care available care crisis which the current welfare in different parts of the country.

18 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN

The failure of successive governments potential returners from care in the UK, to adjust the 2010 means test means 91 per cent of whom are women. Tackling people with property, savings and the social care crisis isn’t just about income in excess of £23,250 must meet providing people with the support they the entirety of their care costs. As the need; it is about unlocking the talents Nuffield Trust reports, for some people of people who could be in the labour these costs can be ‘catastrophic’. market, a disproportionate number Poor levels of funding are also of whom are women. This is an issue driving a staffing crisis. According to of equality and social justice. the Health Foundation, there are an Even if the objective were simply estimated 110,000 vacancies in adult a short-sighted commitment to maintain social care. Staff turnover is high and the status quo, the Health Foundation the reasons for this are clear. Those estimates that it would cost £1bn in who choose to dedicate their working 2020/21 to address demand pressures lives to caring for others face low and staff pay, rising to £3.4bn in 2023/24 pay, poor working conditions and in comparison with the current baseline unstable contracts, with nearly one in budget. Restoring access to 2010/11 four workers on zero-hours contracts. levels would cost an additional £8.1bn. A noble profession helping people to But it is clear the status quo isn’t live life to the fullest is currently seen working for anyone. It fails those who as a low-status career path. need care, with 1 million older people The economic value of unpaid failing to receive the support they need. care provided by friends and family It fails those who love them, as many is estimated by the Office for National of the UK’s 6.5 million family carers Statistics to be £411bn per year, but live in dire straits, with as many as there are broader impacts on our society. one in four having failed to get a single Linda Pickard at the London School day away from caring for five years. of Economics has noted that carers are This brings harmful consequences for most likely to be of working age, with carers’ own wellbeing. The system also nearly two-thirds being women. BAME fails care service providers who know people, especially Asian people, are their service provision is not good more likely to provide longer hours of enough, but who cannot make the care. Age UK highlights that more than changes needed because of the funding 1 million carers are ‘sandwich carers’, constraints on their paymasters in local looking after older relatives as well as government. This stops them recruiting, bringing up their children, 68 per cent rewarding and retaining staff. The of whom are women.12 For those who system fails our society and economy, take time out of work to undertake caring as more and more older people end up responsibilities, the return to work can in hospital as a result of preventable be hard and result in demotion. Taking conditions and one-third of unpaid all caring responsibilities together, the carers end up reducing hours or giving ONS estimates that there are 1.2 million up paid work altogether.

19 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651

THE CHALLENGE AHEAD at not addressing the ’catastrophic costs’ The UK will have become the fastest of social care. Theresa May’s manifesto growing population in Europe by commitment to address the social 2030. The bulk of Britain’s population care crisis was successfully torpedoed growth will come from our ageing by Labour attacks on her so-called population. One in three babies born ‘dementia tax’. Following the election, today are expected to live beyond 100. those proposals were quietly dropped By contrast, babies born 100 years ago and a Green Paper announced in March had just a one per cent chance of living 2017 has still yet to materialise after to 100 years. The over-65 population missing five publication dates. will increase from 11.6 million today There is no shortage of ideas available. to 15.4 million by 2030. By comparison, The Dilnot Commission, which reported the 16–64 cohort will increase by just in 2011, proposed a range of measures three per cent. This will place significant to tackle the funding crisis, including pressure on adult social care budgets, a more generous means-testing threshold as the working age population to pay set at £100,000, a cap on care costs of for it shrinks. IPPR estimates that the £35,000, disability benefits to support funding gap for adult social care will independence for disabled people and reach £13bn by 2030–31, which would a national threshold for care eligibility be 62 per cent of the expected budget. to end the postcode lottery. These factors necessitate recruiting The Scottish government provides skilled workers from overseas – not just free personal and nursing care following to meet the skills needs of our economy, a needs-based assessment to assist with but to provide the tax revenues we need a range of tasks from personal hygiene to fund people in retirement. But as and continence management through we have seen in the UK and many to counselling and food preparation, other Western democracies, people with chargeable services including aren’t necessarily prioritising national housework, laundry, shopping and the economic interest when making political costs of supplying food. The cost of decisions and governments are begin- implementing such a model in England ning to follow suit. could add around £4.4bn to the social care budget today,13 but this will still FACING THE FUTURE fall short of meeting people’s full social During his inaugural speech as prime care needs. minister, Boris Johnson pledged to At the 2019 general election, the “fix … once and for all” the social care Nuffield Foundation called for clarity crisis which has plagued successive and consistency about the social care administrations. Proposals put forward offer, supporting calls for free personal by to introduce a levy at care for over-65s; fair and transparent death to fund social care were savaged funding being shared between indi- as a ‘death tax’. After he left office, viduals and the state; and a workforce expressed his regret strategy to address the scale of the

20 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN shortage; as well as stability for organi- to create something better in its place. sations providing care. We should first decide what a social Labour’s manifesto committed £10bn care system which enables people to for social care and included proposals live good lives would look like and then for free personal care for the over-65s, decide how we should pay for it. a lifetime cap on personal contributions Politicians regularly contribute to of £100,000 and clear eligibility criteria. political debates through the prism of The funding commitments were widely people’s lives: the people we meet, the welcomed, but the pledge to repeal services we visit, even the experiences the Health and Social Care Act was of our loved ones. But the truth is we criticised for raising the spectre of are not good at making policy through another costly NHS reorganisation. the same lens and we are even worse In the social care debates of the last at handing over power and control to decade, short-term political opportun- let people shape their own lives. ism has trumped the national interest, If we start by wanting to help people resulting in a failure to treat the crisis to live better lives, not simply endure with the urgency it deserves. The result longer ones, we begin a different has been human misery and indignity. conversation and open new worlds of possibility. Describing an initiative PUTTING PEOPLE FIRST called ‘The Circle’, Hilary Cottam Living longer should be a cause for provides evidence that such an approach celebration, untainted by expectation works. Working with a range of older of misery, fear or pain. Where people people, some of whom were experiencing are unable to work because of chronic loneliness and ill-health, Cottam’s team illness or disability, they should be designed a programme of public action actively enabled to live fulfilling lives. that built connections, relationships and As a society, we are far from realising friendships – helping them help each this vision. other to lead better lives – from activities The social care crisis can’t wait for like coffee mornings, book clubs, art and a Labour government. In opposition, cinema trips, to an advice line and a team Labour’s new leadership needs to of people willing to use their skills to help stress the urgent need to inject cash with odd jobs. Each ‘circle’ of the project into the system and tackle the recruit- was funded with a start-up grant from ment crisis immediately. a local authority or housing association. Longer term, any plan for funding Cottam reveals that partners calculated must find the right balance between they would save more than £2m in the contributions made by individuals the start-up years, with approximately and the state. But too often the debate £800,000 in cash savings and the rest starts and ends with a discussion about made up from reduced demand for items thresholds, entitlements and cash injec- like unnecessary GP visits. tions with the aim of propping up the ‘The Circle’ is an example of how existing system, rather than an ambition a new kind of sharing, relational

21 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651 state could work; one that is about ‘campus model’ that puts personal care genuine sharing rather than, as Cottam homes and supported housing units notes, the pursuit of ruthless profit alongside wider Jewish community and exploitation of people. The latter centre provision, providing lots of scope currently characterises much of the for intergenerational interaction and formal ‘Uberised’ sharing economy. community spirit. ‘The Circle’ isn’t a social care model, but one that hands over power and FUNDING THE LIVING control so that people can live well. Much of what Andrew Dilnot said People are clear about what they want in his review of care funding nearly from a social care system: dignity, choice a decade ago should direct policymakers and control. They expect it to include today: we need a national threshold nutritional care, pain management, of care eligibility to end the postcode personal hygiene, practical assistance, lottery, and we need to ensure the respect for privacy and inclusiveness. benefits system provides adequate The case for integrating health financial support to give those unable to and social care has been well made. work genuine independence and quality In some parts of the country, strong of life. Public policy debate is so often local leadership and collaboration about making sure support is targeted between local authorities, clinical at those who genuinely need it, but an commissioning groups and health trusts even bigger focus ought to be on making are demonstrating the value in terms sure that the support available genuinely of cost savings and, more importantly, meets those needs. outcomes for people. Progress has Just as the last Labour government been hampered by the assault on raised the status of professions like public health budgets, which undermine teaching, so the next Labour govern- attempts to promote wellbeing and ment must raise the status of the care reduce demand on NHS services in the profession. Caring is a hard job. Taking longer term. This short-termist approach care of people, recognising their needs to public health spending must end. and providing personal support in We need to be much more a way that gives people dignity, requires imaginative about the relationship a wide range of demanding skills. We between social care and housing. As would want the very best people caring Andrew Harrop noted in Take Good for us, or those closest to us, so we Care for the Fabian Society, published should invest in the workforce to make projections estimate that we will need this a reality. In her pamphlet with the around 11,000 more care home beds and GMB, Everyday Work, Rachel Reeves 9,000 more supported housing units to argues for a new set of Royal Colleges be developed each year to keep up with for professions like care work, giving rising demand. We also need to focus on carers a central role in the design and improving the quality of those available. delivery of their own profession. This Jewish Care has developed a successful should be accompanied by an increase

22 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN in care workers’ pay, to enable employ- families to plan their legacies and ers to recruit the best and invest in their also deliver certainty about how to ongoing professional development. prepare for the care that accompanies There is consensus on the need to old age. change, but controversy arises over the Involving the public in a national questions of system design, who pays conversation along the lines of the and how. We could design a system citizens’ assemblies used in Ireland along the lines proposed by Andrew to consider contentious issues like the Dilnot, with a means-testing threshold introduction of same-sex marriage or and a cap on lifetime contributions, but changes to abortion laws might help whatever our choice, it is time to grasp to create the conditions in which we the nettle of the social care debate. As achieve sustainable, lasting change we found in chapter one, it is clear that with public support. It is not just the a shrinking tax base and greater concen- old or disabled who stand to win from tration of wealth in capital assets makes a properly funded and delivered social the debate about how we tax wealth care system. More than 1 million people, more pressing. This isn’t just a question many of them women and young of how we fund our public services, it carers, would be freed up to pursue is a basic question of fairness and there their studies or careers, with enormous is a clear argument for pooling our benefits for family life and our economy resources, spreading costs and sharing as a whole. the risk. Being able to live well for longer should not be a game of chance. VALUING OUR INTERNATIONAL The desire to leave something for WORKFORCE future generations is an instinctive one. If the funding arrangements for People who have worked hard, saved social care weren’t controversial hard, and invested in homes and other enough, the workforce challenge assets have a natural desire to ensure in the social care sector crosses their children and grandchildren share in into another complex area of public that success through inheritance. This is policy: immigration. Of the 1.5 million not wrong or immoral, it is natural. But people working in social care for local as a society we need to consider whether authorities, independent providers, we are placing too much emphasis on and direct payment recipients, around protecting the passage of wealth from 250,000 were non-British, comprising one generation to another rather than 115,000 EU nationals and 134,000 enabling our loved ones to live good lives non-EU nationals.14 whilst they are still with us. UK unemployment is currently In short, we should care less about holding steady around four per cent – how we tax the dead, and more about near full employment. Combined with how we fund the living. By being a shrinking working age population it upfront and honest about costs to the is now a simple fact that we will need state and individual, we would enable to recruit people from overseas to fill

23 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651 vacancies and ensure world-leading to work here do jobs that local people UK industries are able to recruit the would not want to do. Others come here best talent. because they are the best in their field, The decision to leave the European wanting to work in a global centre with Union was partly motivated by public other world leaders. We must get better concern, in some cases hostility, towards at educating, training and supporting inward migration. Many associated our own homegrown talent, so that no inward migration from EU accession one feels left behind, but we must also countries with the casualisation of remember that without immigration labour, lower pay and poorer conditions. we would not be able to fill the vacancies These concerns were successfully needed to grow our economy for our exploited by the right, including the collective benefit. far-right, to foment a populist backlash. The biggest problem with the The impact has reached the heart immigration system is the bureaucratic of government, culminating in the incompetence of the Home Office announcement in February by Home and the arbitrary policies and targets Secretary Priti Patel that freedom of its staff are forced to work towards. movement would come to an end and The Home Office is no longer up be replaced with a stringent, points- to the task of managing the UK’s based system that would exclude those immigration system. In the wake of without decent earnings and high skills. our exit from the European Union, This shortsighted proposal plays well the strategic importance of migration with hardliners in the Conservative policy increases significantly and party, but overlooks the reality that the scale of the task becomes harder. Britain is already facing a recruitment A new ministry of migration should be and retention crisis amongst UK-born established, taking full responsibility for workers – and that the only way of immigration policy and delivery, with preventing the further decline of our clear rules that the public can under- public services is to welcome talent stand and which they are reassured from overseas. are being enforced. The UK now needs a realistic As former Home Office minister and progressive alternative to the David Hanson proposed in Healing immigration policy coming down the the Divide for the Tribune Group, track. Honesty is the best policy. The we should give special status to EU UK needs to attract people to live, work nationals under a ‘close partnership’ and study here to ensure our economic model, with freedom of movement success. International students make maintained for those with proof of an enormous economic and cultural employment, as well as for students, contribution to our colleges and univer- scientists and for internal business sities, and the relationships they build transfers, as well as a ‘right to family’ provide a lifetime of diplomatic and to allow partners of UK nationals to economic ties. Many people who come live and work in the UK.

24 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN

For non-EU workers, a points-based sectors like social care which pay less immigration system could enable but have higher numbers of vacancies people with the skills we need to enter that we desperately need to fill. the UK, without the requirement to Together, let’s fund a system that earn a minimum of £30,000 which genuinely cares for people and values excludes people from working in the the people who care for us.

25 CHAPTER 3

TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION: CREATING A FUTURE THAT WORKS FOR EVERYONE

The internet is the great equaliser. learning, artificial intelligence The technology which emanated and quantum computing will allow from the Silicon Valley of technology to perform tasks previously California has more potential thought to be quintessentially human. to ameliorate social inequality This technological revolution opens than any development in the up a world of possibility and opportunity history of the world, including but brings with it great risks. It will affect the industrial revolution. every aspect of our lives. This chapter – Benazir Bhutto focuses on the impact of technology on inequality. Before she was assassinated, An industrial revolution is taking Pakistan’s prime minister Benazir place at an unprecedented pace and Bhutto saw the potential of technology scale. It was more than 50 years after to tackle inequality, but as Klaus Schwab the invention of the telephone that of the World Economic Forum warns half a million Americans owned us: “In addition to being a key economic one. It took radio 38 years to attract concern, inequality represents the 50 million listeners. By comparison, greatest societal concern associated Facebook attracted 6 million users with the Fourth Industrial Revolution.” in year one and that number multiplied We need to learn the right lessons from 100 times in the five years that followed. our experience of globalisation: our WeChat, the multi-purpose messaging, political choices will help determine social media and mobile payment app whether this technological revolution launched in China in 2011, has more works in the interests of everyone. than a billion monthly active users. But aside from rapid growth, what makes DISRUPTING TODAY this industrial revolution unlike any We are already seeing the impact of other is that advancements in machine technology on both the labour market

26 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN and on key sectors of our economy. The with more of us seeking personalised UK’s retail sector is experiencing major services, but it also offers the positive disruption as a result of online retail, potential to create more informed, with significant high street job losses. empowered and engaged citizens. Technological disruption is also driving Public services have been slow to respond industrial convergence, exemplified by to this trend. Where they have, it has companies like Amazon, Apple and typically been through the conviction, Google. Manufacturers in the automo- held by politicians in successive gov- tive industry are having to explore ways ernments, that digitisation will deliver to reinvent their traditional business more demanding consumers and better models whilst new entrants like Uber public services as a result – although the and Lyft motor ahead with serious evidence to support this theory is mixed investment in driverless car technology at best. Today’s empowered customers and shared transportation models. open up an opportunity for the left to use Consumers have convenience at technology and data to create responsive their fingertips, but this ease of access and efficient public services. brings significant challenges. The Some countries are already so-called ‘gig economy’, operated embracing the potential offered by through digital platforms like Uber and new technology in transforming the Deliveroo, whereby workers defined as civic sphere. New cities are being built ‘freelancers’ provide labour in tempo- from the ground up, like the Tianjin rary assignments or ‘gigs’, is already eco city – a joint venture between presenting policy makers and regulators China and Singapore. Driverless with difficulties in imposing regulatory transit systems and smart buildings are frameworks and standards. In cities already beginning to emerge. For public like London, consumers have become services under strain, most notably accustomed to the convenience and cost the NHS, new technology offers the of Uber’s minicab service, but it is only chance to make efficiency gains and made possible through a combination improve health outcomes by seizing the of venture capital, tax avoidance and the benefits of sensor technology, real-time exploitation of low-paid drivers. Trade data, and analytics to re-orientate the unions like GMB have been forced to service towards prevention and disease take companies in the gig economy management. By 2030, artificial intelli- to court in order to defend basic, yet gence will be able to use sophisticated hard-won, employment rights like the algorithms that diagnose and prescribe minimum wage, holiday pay, sick pay more accurately. and maternity pay. This is unacceptable. With new technology comes new Digital technology is also driving forms of crime. From hacking and profound societal change, reflected in phishing to malicious software and the explosion of interest in behavioural distributed denial of service (DDOS) economics. Access to information is attacks with the aim of extortion, cyber creating more demanding consumers, criminality is on the rise, with criminals

27 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651 devising an expanding range of tools Most of Gates’ breakthroughs of to steal from citizens and businesses. the future, however, lie in the realm The impact of technological advance- of medical advancement. He forecasts ment and increased connectivity is the creation of ECG-equipped smart multiplied by the data revolution taking watches which can provide alerts to place, which is placing unprecedented patients with heart conditions; pills amounts of information in the hands of that can be swallowed with microscopic consumers and businesses alike. Who cameras and lights, allowing for quick benefits will be a key political question. diagnoses of gut conditions that affect millions in the developing world; DNA FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS analysis via a simple blood test that can In February 2019, Microsoft founder predict whether a woman will give birth Bill Gates was commissioned by the prematurely and custom cancer vaccines MIT Technology Review to compile bioengineered to kill the disease within a list of the biggest future advances the body. This last advancement is that he believes will define our world, already a reality for hundreds of people, providing us with a clearer picture of as the biotechnology firm Cellectis has how technological development will genetically engineered human cells to change our lives in the years ahead. kill leukaemia, placing many gravely Gates believes that in as little as three ill patients in remission. to five years we will develop robots with enhanced dexterity and ability FACING THE FUTURE to manipulate objects. This could take In his book, Future Politics, political robots off the production line and deploy theorist and lawyer Jamie Susskind them within the randomness and com- argues that ‘the digital is political’, plexity of our daily lives, able to carry with technological advancements out delicate procedures and operate in raising profound political questions rapidly changing environments. He also concerning liberty, democracy and predicts a step-change in our use of social justice. These include, for nuclear energy, with the development example, the limits of human freedom of nuclear fusion and fission reactors in a driverless car that refuses to go that will make nuclear production safer above a certain speed; the implications and far cheaper. As well as creating for democracy when machines are alternative energy sources, Gates also able to deliberate more effectively than predicts we will develop carbon-dioxide human beings, or for social justice capturing technology in the next five when algorithms are making decisions to 10 years. These initiatives, combined about how a human being is viewed or with the development of ‘meat-free treated. Indeed, the deployment of AI meat’ to end the highly polluting in government systems ranging from dominance of the industrialised farming judicial decision-making to passport sector, offer real opportunities to production already demonstrates how prevent a climate catastrophe. technology can perpetuate unequal

28 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN treatment or even racial prejudice just displacement caused by the ‘frictional like human beings. unemployment’ described by Daniel For the Labour party, the conse- Susskind, where people don’t have the quences of machine learning and AI for skills to undertake new jobs, don’t live the future of work make our founding near new jobs, or don’t see the oppor- mission – to defend the interests of tunities available as jobs for people like labour – even more relevant and vital. them. This mismatch of skills, place As Professor Andrew McAfee of MIT and identity is already occurring. As has argued: “We’re going to see more the Fabian Society’s Commission on and more things that look like science Workers and Technology has identified, fiction and fewer and fewer things that those living in villages and towns are look like jobs.” more at risk from automation than those Estimates on job creation versus job living in cities; those living in London losses vary. IPPR estimates that 3 million and the south east are less vulnerable new jobs will be created by 2030 as than those living elsewhere in the UK a result of new technology. The World (albeit AI think tank Future Advocacy Bank estimates that 57 per cent of jobs in argues the potential to automate OECD nations are susceptible to automa- logistics and transport means Hayes tion – rising to 69 per cent in India and and Harlington’s reliance on Heathrow 77 per cent in China. The Bank of England airport suggests some four in 10 of its claims that two-thirds of jobs are currently jobs are at risk, second only to Heywood at risk of automation, with the lowest paid and Middleton in greater Manchester15); jobs most affected. But advances made in workers in their 30s are least at risk of artificial intelligence will also see white their jobs being automated compared collar jobs, even creative jobs, being made with those aged between 16 to 24 and redundant by machines. 55 to 65; and 70 per cent of jobs at high As Daniel Susskind posits in A World risk of automation are currently held Without Work, it is possible we might by women. We must have structures witness a time when the ‘Age of Labour’ in place to mediate the impact of comes to an end. In such a scenario, ideas automation, or we will risk it widening like universal basic income, championed the already gaping inequalities in by voices across the political spectrum our society. from the libertarian right to the Marxist left, might become a necessity to deal LEARNING FOR LIFE with mass unemployment. This isn’t just Education shouldn’t be regarded as an economic challenge, but a philosoph- a means to an end or a commodity to ical one. As Voltaire said: “Work saves be bought, sold or traded in for financial a man from three great evils: boredom, success. It is an end in itself: a process vice and need”. of exploration and discovery to deepen But this is a long-term dilemma. Pol- our understanding of ourselves, the iticians should be more concerned with world and the universe that surrounds the foreseeable future, particularly the us. Teachers are in the business of

29 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651 civilisation building. Learning is an Inequality is entrenched within the inheritance that belongs to everyone. education system. Children from poorer Education is also a social leveller backgrounds arrive at school with and a route out of poverty. In a world significant gaps in phonics, reading, where we live longer, work longer and writing and mathematics compared with the nature of work changes constantly, those from more affluent families, the lifelong learning will become even more attainment gap at the end of secondary important than it is today. Our current school has barely moved since 2014 and approach is woefully inadequate. these inequalities have a significant Participation has fallen dramatically, impact on opportunities for further budgets have been cut by 45 per cent study and career success. since 2010 and 9 million adults of We need to get the foundations right. working age currently lack basic skills, Early years education should be the with those aged between 16 and 29 immediate priority, including invest- having on average worse literacy and ment in home learning targeted to those numeracy skills than those aged 30 to families who need it most, the rebirth of 45.16 We need a sea change in what we Sure Start children’s centres available to learn, how we learn and when we learn. all children from birth to the age of two The Centenary Commission on and free universal childcare available Lifelong Learning argues that education to all families from the age of two is ‘a permanent national necessity’ and until they are of school age. should be ‘both universal and lifelong’. Every child should study a broad Labour should embrace this vision, with curriculum up to the age of 16. This a 20-year roadmap for ensuring that should include at least English, maths, opportunities for lifelong learning are the sciences, a creative subject and one available to all and funded accordingly. of the humanities. Computer science The next Labour government should become a core subject with the should do for adult education what the required investment in the teaching last Labour government did for early workforce. Curriculum development years and schools. People need peace should be left to the professionals, not of mind that they won’t be left by the subject to the whims of every passing wayside because it is all too hard for secretary of state. governments to cope with providing We should aim to make this the best world-class education and training after place in the world to be a teacher. Every our early 20s. It should have a relentless successful education system in the world focus on developing better curriculum, recognises the importance of good teach- teaching and assessment across a wide ing and school leadership. It requires range of routes. It should make sure having a well-paid, well-supported and that everyone is able to access post-16 highly motivated workforce. education throughout their lives and ’s vision for a National develop the funding model to make this Education Service had lifelong learning vision a reality. at its heart, but the lion’s share of educa-

30 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN tion spending increases in the 2017 and CHANGING THE WORLD 2019 manifestos were directed towards OF WORK FOR GOOD providing free undergraduate higher As TUC general secretary Frances education. This was the wrong priority. O’Grady argues, every job should be Although participation in higher educa- a decent job, everyone should earn a tion has improved dramatically during fair wage for a hard day’s work and all the last 20 years, its direct beneficiaries of us should have a real voice in how are largely middle-class graduates who change happens. go on to earn significantly more over The 2019 Labour manifesto contained the course of their lifetimes than their a comprehensive set of proposals to working-class peers who do not attend improve employment rights, under the university. Participation among those auspices of a new government ministry, from poorer backgrounds has also many of which were practical common risen and is higher than in Scotland, sense – and are therefore unlikely to be where tuition is free. All the evidence realised under a Conservative govern- suggests that any government wishing ment. These include the repeal of the to improve life chances and reduce 2016 Trade Union Act and the strength- inequality should prioritise spending on ening of enforcement arrangements for early years, school and adult education. existing employment rights. Some of the There are serious shortcomings within proposals were not ambitious enough, the current higher education funding such as the modest improvements system: for most applicants, the fees proposed for paternity rights in place of advertised bear little resemblance to the full equalisation policy that should what they will pay back as graduates; have been offered. Some of the more the interest applied to student loans ambitious ideas, like a shorter working no longer commands public support; week or trials for universal basic income, and the student finance package is not raised more questions than answers and generous enough for students who left Labour exposed under the scrutiny struggle financially. Tuition fees should of a general election campaign. be abolished and replaced with a fairer The next Labour government should and more honest graduate tax, providing follow the successful model of the Low more generous upfront financial support Pay Commission by establishing a to poorer students funded by tax receipts Good Work Commission to negotiate from the wealthiest graduates. the future of employment rights and Education is key to an equitable protections. The Low Pay Commission future. As Andreas Schleicher, the not only ensured that the national min- OECD director of education and skills imum wage came into being, but also warns: “Things that are easy to teach helped build support for the increase are easy to automate. The future is about across business and politics, ensuring its pairing artificial intelligence with the longevity. A Good Work Commission, cognitive, social and emotional skills bringing together employers and trade and values of humans.” unions with the government, could

31 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651 similarly help to negotiate the future of The problem is not that trade unions work in the interests of everyone. have too much power, but that workers A shadow Good Work Commission have too little influence. Trade unions should be established by Labour in should be seen as essential partners opposition, to lay the foundations for an in developing responses to the chal- employment rights bill to be introduced lenges posed by the fourth industrial within the first 100 days of the next revolution. Collective bargaining rights Labour government. This would allow have been steadily eroded in recent the state to lead by example. Many decades, leaving workers’ voices of the roles that are most valuable to weakened. It should be made easier people and least susceptible to automa- for workers to join a union and to gain tion are amongst the lowest paid, like workplace recognition. IPPR proposes those of care workers. As part of giving trades unions a physical and a shadow Good Work Commission, digital right to access employees to Labour should look at low pay and encourage them to join. Government job insecurity across the public sector should also consider seed funding a new and prepare a workforce strategy to generation of unions for the self-em- irreversibly raise the floor in relation ployed, to provide advice, training to pay and conditions within the first and insurance to cover challenges like term of the next Labour government. sickness or late payments from clients. A Labour administration should also The Resolution Foundation points to the encourage better practice in the private ‘modern awards’ system being used in sector by introducing a modern form Australia and the fair pay agreements of fair wage resolutions in government proposed in New Zealand as potential contracts, so that goods and services models to expand collective bargaining are procured from contractors observing in the UK. the highest conditions of pay and employment standards. THE INNOVATION NATION Trade unions like the GMB are The UK is a global centre of excellence demonstrating through the courts that in research and innovation, but we corporate giants in the gig economy are should be even more ambitious. abusing the notion of self-employment The latest figures from the House of to deny their workers hard-won basic Commons Library put UK research employment rights. This practice must and development (R&D) spending at end. It should not be left to the unions 1.7 per cent of GDP – behind the USA, and the courts to ensure the fair France and Germany. The next Labour treatment of these workers; government government should aim to increase this must act by strengthening existing to three per cent. legislation and taking tougher enforce- Such a significant uplift in innovation ment action against firms that seek to investment must also ensure value for exploit their workers through bogus money and be ruthless about returns self-employment status. for British taxpayers and our economy.

32 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN

Whilst discussing R&D, let us remember Fraunhofers but considerably less well that it is research which costs money funded by government and less well and development that brings the finan- recognised. The German government is cial and, crucially, industrial payback. careful to ensure that each Fraunhofer UK universities are world-class occupies a distinctive space in the but we still need to do more to bridge industrial innovation ecosystem, the so-called ‘valley of death’ to take to ensure there is no displacement or academic ideas on to commercial crowding out by public sector funds. success. Industrial researchers know The UK has been more haphazard that the cost of scale-up and commer- in this regard, with inefficient allocation cialisation is an order of magnitude of funding, examples of displacement more than the cost of the fundamental and an inequitable access of funds research. They allocate their resources for centres. accordingly. The public sector in the UK Bringing the RTOs back into the fold has this ratio entirely reversed, spending as part of the government’s delivery 10 times more on fundamental research mechanism for innovation will create than on scale-up and development. The an immediate supercharge to commer- consequence is that the UK taxpayer is cialisation and economic growth for UK a benevolent funder of research for the science and innovation. A consequence world, hamstrung by a funding regime of funding development rather than that has insufficient capacity to absorb research in this way is that funding and commercialise UK-funded research. will naturally flow in greater proportion The solution is to ensure that towards industrial areas, particularly future growth in the science and the north and Midlands where many innovation budget is targeted more RTOs are located rather than continuing towards development than research, to be concentrated in the so-called ensuring that research carried out in ‘golden triangle’ of universities in the the UK is commercialised in the UK south of England. and that the economic benefits are captured in the UK. LEVERAGING TECHNOLOGY Britain’s research and technology FOR THE COMMON GOOD organisations (RTOs) have a key role We should aim to have the smartest to play. Possibly the least known, and state in the world, with digital certainly the least well-funded element transformation driven from the centre of the UK’s science and innovation of government, possibly as part of a new infrastructure, RTOs are industry- prime minister’s department, incorpo- focused centres, with strong indus- rating the . Government trial links and a commercial mindset. should champion an open data approach Analogous to the Fraunhofer system and invite the best and brightest in our in Germany, RTOs include both public thriving community of tech entrepre- and private sector organisations. The neurs to propose answers to some of UK RTO sector is larger than Germany’s the biggest public policy challenges we

33 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651 face. We should be brave enough to take explores the role that the UK must on hostile elements of the right and the play in ensuring that democracy, British media who believe that public freedom and human rights underpin sector workers should be paid less than the international system. As part of everyone else, instead putting in place that effort, the UK should lead the an attractive package to recruit and international debate on the importance retain the best and brightest minds at of ethics and responsible innovation to different stages in their careers to build our digital future. The Centre for Data digital skills capability across the public Ethics and Innovation has funding until sector, from Whitehall to town halls. 2021. It should be placed on a permanent, Data collection and analysis will not independent statutory footing with the only challenge and transform political dual aims of informing public policy in institutions, but create new models of the UK and providing global leadership, ownership, economic power and wealth. just as the Department for International IPPR argues that building a public, Development has done in global aid democratic data infrastructure in the 21st and development. century will be a task on par with the We should lead the world in creation of the welfare state in the 20th developing new technology to help century. We have a responsibility to rise tackle the climate emergency. A net zero to that challenge so that data, power and tech taskforce should be established to value rests with people, not corporations. look at how government, businesses From political thinkers like Liam Byrne and universities can work together to to diplomats like Tom Fletcher and develop and roll out the technology that creator of the world wide web Sir Tim can support rapid decarbonisation of our Berners-Lee, consensus has emerged on economy, from greener transportation the need for a ‘digital bill of rights’. This through to housing standards. featured in our 2019 manifesto but it is The technological revolution presents yet to be fully formed. Labour should us with challenges, but it also offers lead the debate on this now, so that we hope of a better tomorrow through can introduce such a bill early in the first scientific discoveries and technological term of the next Labour government. innovations that are unimaginable even The United Kingdom is respected today. This should be a cause for hope around the world for our commitment and optimism. Just as the UK led the to the rule of law and our experience world in the first Industrial Revolution, in crafting international rules, we should aim to lead it again in the regulations and treaties. Chapter five 2020s and beyond.

34 CHAPTER 4

CLIMATE EMERGENCY: ‘CATHEDRAL THINKING’ TO TACKLE THE CLIMATE BREAKDOWN

Avoiding climate breakdown heatwaves are crippling infrastructure will require ‘cathedral thinking’. and causing public health crises, We must lay the foundation while with 1,500 people in France dying we may not know exactly how of heat-related illnesses in 2018. to build the ceiling. On 25 July 2019, the UK Met Office – Greta Thunberg declared a temperature of 38.7°C to be the hottest day on record. Temperatures Greta Thunberg’s message was clear such as these are set to become the when she addressed the UK parliament norm, with London in the summer in April 2019: we must acknowledge months predicted to become as hot the scale of the climate emergency we as Barcelona by 2050. face; the time for us to act is now and Other climate-related processes will it is our duty to be world leaders in permanently change the face of Britain. the fight through the development of If we maintain current levels of green- a UK Green New Deal (GND). We must house gas emissions, sea levels around meet this challenge urgently. London are predicted to rise between 0.53 and 1.15 metres, threatening the TELLING THE TRUTH ABOUT safety of our capital and surrounding THE CLIMATE EMERGENCY regions.17 Across the UK, the Met Office The UK and Europe today are forecasts that flash flooding caused by already experiencing the impact of the intense rainfall that has already environmental decline. According to caused such misery this year, from the World Meteorological Organisation, Yorkshire to Wales, could become five the last 22 years have produced 20 of times as frequent by the end of the the warmest years on record, with the century if urgent steps are not taken. hottest four occurring consecutively Beyond our continent, the effects are between 2015–18. Prolonged summer more severe and the challenges more

35 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651 profound. In America, PG&E Corpo- FACING THE FUTURE ration became the first big business to Faced with this global picture, the UK fail due to climate change, declaring parliament has begun to act. Led by the bankruptcy following hundreds of Labour party, a UK climate emergency lawsuits by those who had lost their was declared in May 2019, and two homes in the California wildfires. months later the government finally The Arctic region, too, has faced an legislated for zero-emissions by 2050. unprecedented environmental catastro- Although these moves are welcome, phe. The melting rate of Greenland’s ice the enormity of the challenge requires has risen to three Olympic-sized swim- us to be more ambitious. The future ming pools every second, and following of our climate hangs in the balance, the hottest June on record, wildfires and we must use a UK Green New visible from space raged through parts Deal to reorient our economy in the of Siberia, Antarctica, and Greenland. planet’s favour. These caused the release of up to 50 megatons of CO², a quantity larger than A NEW NATIONAL MISSION WITH that released by all other Arctic Circle STRONGER ENFORCEABLE TARGETS fires in June from 2010–18 combined.18 Building a Green New Deal for the UK But it is ultimately the people of should be a national mission. It requires the Global South who will be dispro- strong leadership from the government, portionately affected by the developing but also a recognition that governments climate emergency, with 95 per cent can’t do this alone. We need to mobilise of the cities at extreme climate risk the resources, innovation and industry situated in Asia and Africa.19 In 2018, of the state, business and civil society. widespread drought-related food If ever there was a cause around which scarcity caused extreme food shortages to unite our disunited kingdom, it is for almost 840,000 people in South this one. America,20 a leading factor in mass A climate and sustainability migration to the United States which office should be established within caused serious political instability. The a new prime minister’s department, World Bank believes the total number of coordinating a cross-government globally displaced people is set to reach approach to the climate emergency, 140 million people by 2050 due to the working with devolved administrations, rising sea levels, droughts, extreme civil society and business to make the weather, and subsequent conflicts that GND a truly national mission. will come to characterise this global Further strengthening of statu- climate catastrophe. There is a small tory obligations will be required to but growing body of evidence21 which enforce targets and achieve the goal supports the theory that climate change of a zero-carbon economy long before already drives current conflicts and 2050. A new Sustainable Economy Act, population movement. It is clear this is like that proposed by IPPR, should be not just a problem for the future. introduced as a foundational step, with

36 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN statutory targets for all environmental risks that climate change poses to global impacts arising from the climate emer- financial stability and their personal gency, including on biodiversity, soil potential to do business. They are fertility and air-quality. This act must waking up to the sober truth that you also acknowledge the reality that Britain cannot make money on a dead planet. has artificially lowered and effectively This can be seen in the formation of the exported much of its carbon footprint ‘coalition of the willing’, a network of by importing industrially produced 34 central banks committed to greening products from poorer countries, allow- our financial system. ing us to avoid environmental responsi- The Bank of England is already bility for its production. This act would undertaking its own climate risk place statutory targets for emissions on assessment for release in 2020. It both domestic production and on the should consider extending stress testing consumption of products imported to beyond financial stability, encompassing the UK domestic market. A Clean Air assessments of climate risk and whether Act should also be introduced, designed credit guidance could be used alongside to tackle toxic air through the extension investment from the Treasury to scale of low-emission zones, speeding up the up low-carbon investment in green transition away from heavily polluting innovation, technologies and enterprise. transport through grants and subsidies. Reconfiguring the Bank’s mandate The consequences of failure are with sustainability as a core aim could untenable, and successive governments prompt a whole series of affirmative must be held to account to make sure actions within the financial sector. that each target is met. The Office of It may also present an opportunity Environmental Protection should be to bring an end to environmentally given tough enforcement powers to take damaging practices. Quantitative easing action against breaches of the legally in response to the financial crash saw binding targets laid down by parliament. central banks, including the Bank of The remit of the Committee on Climate England, invest heavily in corporate Change should also be extended to ana- bonds issued by fossil fuel companies, lyse potential or planned policies and to benefiting not only the most wealthy but help successive governments, opposition also the worst polluters. A step-change parties, devolved governments and local in the Bank’s guiding ethos could authorities take a longer-term view. signal a move away from this form of destructive investment, towards GREEN FINANCE ethical investing and divestment from As one of the largest financial centres in fossil-fuels. the world-economy, the UK has a clear responsibility to provide international A GREEN INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION leadership through the greening of our While the notion of the Green New financial system. Many central banks Deal draws its inspiration from FDR’s and their supervisors recognise the New Deal in the aftermath of the Great

37 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651

Depression, Labour’s notion of a green blazed a trail for the thriving tech industrial revolution draws on our industries we see today, state-led R&D own great history. Britain led the first and finance can create the conditions industrial revolution as the workshop necessary to bring about the birth of of the world and we are well placed a new green economy. As Mazzucato and to do so again in 2020. McPherson argue, private finance has Decarbonising the economy and a tendency to be short-termist, risk- reducing greenhouse gas emissions averse and, in the case of venture capital, will only happen if the government structured to extract investments over uses every lever at its disposal: a three to five-year period. Patient public investment, procurement, tax, long-term finance is essential to bring well-designed and targeted regulation, about the green economy we need. and research and development. It should The UK should create a real green have at its heart ambitious plans to build investment bank with regional a new generation of zero-carbon homes, equivalents, armed with mandates for with robust environmental standards for investing in green technological research, new builds and the insulation of existing development and business growth. homes. It should stimulate the creation The tax system should reward of thousands of new, high-quality, long-term investments, particularly well-paid jobs across a whole range in green jobs and research and develop- of sectors. It should help consumers to ment, and create and enforce incentives ditch their gas-guzzling cars for greener and disincentives to tackle polluting alternatives like electric vehicles and behaviour. The UK should commit to green mass transit systems – particu- counting the environmental costs of larly the bus networks in the large goods consumed in the UK, not just swathes of the country where public those manufactured in the UK. transport is either non-existent or fails Every institution has a part to play to meet the needs of people’s everyday in tackling the climate emergency. lives. It should scale investment towards This should be reflected in changes a 100 per cent renewable energy supply, to government procurement rules, invest in renewable energy projects like statutory duties on publicly funded the Swansea tidal lagoon, incentivise bodies and corporate governance rules, onshore wind and solar power, and to make sure that every institution bring shale gas fracking to an end. pays regard to financial sustainability We should be clear that nuclear energy in their activities. will continue to be a key source of our energy supply if we want to decarbonise A JUST TRANSITION with the urgency required. Once the GND has begun, a just Left to its own devices, the market transition must form a key component alone will not provide the route to new of any ongoing strategy. A just transition green industry and jobs. Just as state-led must be designed to ensure that research, development and innovation the enormous economic and societal

38 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN changes a GND will require will not GLOBAL LEADERSHIP be at the expense of any one group. In 1944, the Allied Powers gathered The burdens must be shared by all at Bretton Woods in New Hampshire and the benefits distributed fairly. to build a new economic order led by This is of most importance on a new set of international institutions a regional basis, where a GND provides to avoid a repeat of the disasters of the the chance to rebalance decades of 1920s and 1930s that created the Great systemic regional inequality and decline. Depression. The meeting heralded Our last industrial revolution was the birth of the World Bank and forged in the factories of the Midlands, International Monetary Fund. Just as the coal mines of Yorkshire and the these global institutions have reinvented shipyards of Glasgow and Newcastle. themselves in the decades since to tackle Now a green industrial revolution emerging challenges, so the Bretton presents us with an opportunity Woods system must be reinvented to to revitalise those same towns and tackle the climate emergency today. communities which have experienced The gradual erosion of the rules-based the sharp end of import shocks, international system has led to growing globalisation, and rapid deindustriali- acceptance that global institutions are in sation. We must make sure that these need of serious reform. Let us seize the trends are reversed, not exacerbated, by opportunity this creates by convening in a transition to a zero-carbon economy. Britain a new ‘Bretton Woods’ conference The majority of coal and gas-fired power to renew the institutional basis of the stations exist in the north of England, World Bank and the IMF. They should be with thousands of other jobs relying on given new mandates to use the tools they high-carbon energy intensive industries. possess to support global efforts to tackle A just transition, implemented the climate emergency, with reformed with strong leadership from national institutional governance to rebalance the and regional governments, must be power relationships between advanced the answer. As Labour seeks to build and emerging economies. its political recovery in the north of As well as leading by example, England, we have to offer a vision for the UK should encourage other national the future, based not on nostalgia for the governments to adopt more ambitious coalmines of the past, but on an offer carbon and emission reduction targets, that the coalminer’s grandchild can have and refocus the mission of the Depart- dignified work in a sustainable industry ment for International Development that offers a prosperous green future. to give an even greater priority to A ‘Just Transition Commission’ supporting developing countries in should be created, alongside a fund, to climate adaptation, the development bring together mayors, local authorities, of low-carbon energy supplies and businesses and civil society to mitigate the reduction of carbon emissions. against the risks of decarbonisation to This is not just a mission for govern- these local workforces and communities. ments. Multinational corporations and

39 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651 global industries can also play a vital Too often, discussion about what role in encouraging faster progress needs to be done moves immediately to towards decarbonisation. The fashion great personal sacrifices and a conversa- industry charter for climate change is tion about what we stand to lose, rather a good example of how industry and than what we stand to gain. Some of the sector-based agreements can lead to most radical proposals from the green meaningful change. The UK should movement – from high aviation taxes to press for the UN Framework Convention discourage flying to measures to reduce on Climate Change to do more to meat consumption are, at this point in leverage business, finance, civil society time, unlikely to achieve democratic and sub-regional government to apply support. They therefore risk impeding pressure on national governments to be progress on measures that would easily more ambitious. attract consensus. Six select committees, led by the MOBILISING SOCIETY Business, Energy and Industrial Public support is crucial. We Select Committee – have already each have an individual as well as announced plans for their own joint a collective responsibility to play our role citizens’ assembly on combating in helping to transition the UK economy climate change and the path to net-zero into a zero-carbon future. This will in- emissions. The findings of this assembly volve widespread adoption of everyday and the experiences of those who lead measures to reduce our own carbon foot- and participate in it should inform our print, whilst each providing democratic approach to both the climate crisis and consent for the scale of political ambition the use of citizens’ assemblies to inform that will be required. future public policy debate. Political leaders must strike the right If Britain can make the best of tone in explaining the scale of the chal- the opportunities a green industrial lenge, the consequences of failure and revolution has to offer, we can emerge our plan to succeed. A fine line exists into a post-carbon age as the between shocking people to act and world-leading, economically successful scaring people to the extent they believe nation we should be. The opportunity that we are doomed to failure and action is there. If we seize it, we can change is futile. the world.

40 CHAPTER 5

SHIFTING GLOBAL POWER: DEFENDING AND EXTENDING DEMOCRACY, FREEDOM AND HUMAN RIGHTS

The price of liberty is ‘How Britain Went Bonkers’. ‘Global still eternal vigilance. Britain’ itself is little more than a slogan. – To paraphrase former US Secretary of State Dean Acheson’s famous observation The world is changing around us. after the collapse of the British Empire: Global power is shifting from West Great Britain has left the European Union to East. Rules, institutions and values and not yet found a role. that have underpinned international Since the decision to leave the EU, relations since 1945 are under strain our government has failed to define and a backlash against globalisation who we are, what we stand for and how has given rise to a wave of populism we intend to exercise our influence on the and extremism. It is not certain that global stage. At a time when divisions democracy, rather than tyranny, will over Brexit are being exploited by those define the 21st century. seeking to break up our United Kingdom, Whether tackling climate change the Labour party must be unequivocal or pandemics, hunger or terrorism, about who we are. We are a patriotic, rogue states or the multi-national unionist party. We believe in the United corporations, global problems require Kingdom. While imperfect, our union global leadership. The UK is well placed of nations is a model of friendship and to contribute to such leadership – but cooperation. We share more than an are we up to the challenge? island and we are bound together by Brexit is now a reality. The political more than a treaty. This is not a question turbulence of the last three years has not of votes, it is a question of values. This been without serious reputational conse- chapter addresses what the UK should quences for our country, epitomised by the stand for and how we should exercise our cover feature of Time magazine describing influence in the world.

41 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651

THE GLOBAL CONTEXT This forms part of a wider trend Global power is shifting. If the of urbanisation taking place across 20th century was dominated by the the globe. In 2008, the majority of the West, the 21st century may belong to world’s population lived in cities for the the East. The flow of capital, information first time. By 2050, at current rates of and talent has already shifted from the urbanisation, the world will be two- major trading hubs of Europe and North thirds urban and one third rural. Asia America towards a complex network and Africa will see the bulk of urban across the world. Emerging markets growth – an additional 1 million people have doubled their share of global trade per week for the next 40 years – placing over the last decade. The volume of huge pressure on natural resources trade between China and Africa rose and infrastructure. Lack of effective from US$9bn in 2000 to $211bn in 2012. urban planning risks the growth of According to the UN, the total number slum conditions. It is estimated that by of migrants worldwide rose in 2019 to 2050, around a third of city dwellers 272 million, an increase across all of will live in slums – a doubling of today’s the world’s regions. numbers. Slum conditions – disease, Asia is becoming the world’s largest destitution and despair – provide fertile trading region. By 2030, China will ground for the recruitment of terrorists, have more large companies than either traffickers and the trafficked. the USA or Europe. By 2030, Africa’s Serious conflict and political break- working age population is expected to down continue to affect large parts of have overtaken that of China. In less the Middle East and North Africa. Brutal than a decade, more than 50 per cent of civil wars have engulfed Syria, Yemen, large companies will be headquartered and Libya, wreaking untold human in emerging markets. misery as proxies perpetuate the conflict Just as global economic power for political gain. Harsh autocracy con- is shifting East and South, so too is tinues to blight the governing practices the locus of economic power within of countries like Saudi Arabia, with nation states. In 1970, there were just severe ethical implications for nations two ‘megacities’ with populations larger like Britain from whom they purchase than 10 million: New York and Tokyo. arms. Iranian citizens remain trapped Today there are 27. By 2030, the UN under the rule of a paranoid theocracy, estimates that there will be 41. As the which following recent elections is set world’s cities grow in size and number, to become more resolute. Unfolding they are growing in political influence. military tensions between Iran, the USA C40 cities – a network of the world’s and Britain in the Strait of Hormuz, largest cities committed to working and the breakdown of the nuclear deal together to tackle climate change – through the reckless actions of the demonstrate the potential of city Trump administration, represent the governments to provide global leader- regional flashpoints which will define ship on key issues facing humanity. the 2020s if not carefully managed.

42 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN

The trends discussed in previous erode faith in our democratic legiti- chapters have global ramifications macy and the line between fiction and with implications for our defence and se- reality. Every nuclear-armed nation is curity. The melting Arctic is opening up adding to or upgrading its arsenal, with a new front for commercial and military Russia changing its nuclear protocols competition, with countries competing altogether. Hypersonic missiles could for access to the region’s fish, oil, gas and bypass current missile defences and other mineral resources. The Russian Russia is leading the way in developing navy, previously constrained by a lack a functional system. Drones are able of warm water ports in the region, to deploy lethal force at the touch will be able to deploy their vessels of a button, with China becoming year-round, threatening the coastlines a leading exporter of no-strings of the Baltic states and the UK. Rising attached, strike-capable drones. global temperatures will in turn create Artificial intelligence opens up serious new security challenges for Russia. ethical issues around meaningful Their unlocked ports like Archangel will human decision-making. require constant naval protection. This The arms race is also a space race. will further feed the culture of paranoia Our daily lives are now reliant upon which already defines the Kremlin’s satellites in orbit around our planet. foreign policy. Concern about the security of those According to the Internal Displace- assets, particularly military assets, is ment Monitoring Centre, between growing, with NATO having declared 2008 and 2018, 87 per cent of internal space an ‘operational domain’ and displacements worldwide were caused a number of countries developing by weather-related disasters rather than anti-satellite missiles. Expansion into conflicts. The IPCC warns that going space is already bringing environmental beyond 1.5°C warming will increase the dangers, with huge amounts of ‘intensity and frequency’ of such events. space debris from previous satellite More than 100 million people are at risk launches threatening our planet. The of displacement in sub-Saharan Africa, first nation to develop the capacity South Asia, and South America alone. to clear this orbital junkyard could The countries most vulnerable to the do so to its advantage. extreme effects of climate change are Technology and globalisation among the most fragile. have also opened up new routes The technological revolution lies at for international organised crime, the heart of a renewed arms race – as valued at anywhere between 1.5 to powers adapt to new capabilities and 2 trillion US dollars a year. The frontiers of conflict. The traditional role internet and the dark web are perfect of conventional warfare has changed vehicles for criminals because of the beyond all recognition, with hybrid advantages in speed, connectivity warfare set to define the 21st century’s and anonymity, but even conventional conflict environment. Cyber attacks flows of illicit goods pose an enormous

43 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651 challenge to law enforcement agencies. economic power through the Belt and Both require cross-border, intergovern- Road initiative and its military strength mental cooperation. in the South China Sea. There is something deeper happening LIBERAL DEMOCRACY within the West, which threatens our UNDER THREAT collective security and shared values. Democracy is in retreat, according to While globalisation has lifted millions the Democracy Index produced by the out of poverty to the extent that the Economist Intelligence Unit. Its latest global poverty rate is now at its lowest survey published in January 2020 found point than at any other time in human that democracy has eroded across the history, the benefits of globalisation world during the past 12 months and have been unevenly shared. Since the that the global score is now lower than global financial crisis, voters across Eu- it was when the index first began in rope and North America have expressed 2006. A third of the world’s population their discontent with austerity, dein- live under authoritarian rule, a large dustrialisation and the hollowing out proportion of whom live in China, of communities at the ballot box. The where digital surveillance is widespread failure of the liberal market settlement and the treatment of the Muslim to deliver for the majority has fuelled the Uyghurs in the Western Xinjiang rise of populism, nativism and fascism province has attracted international across Europe and North America. condemnation, but very little action. The pillars of Western liberal The West is now divided and democracy are under attack from uncertain. The ‘America First’ policy of within. Although at times Western the Trump administration has too often governments by their actions have come at the expense of America’s allies, laid themselves open to accusations our shared interests and the internation- of hypocrisy, liberal democracies have al institutions we have built together always been held together by a set of since 1945. European leaders aspire shared values and institutions, including to be less reliant on US defence and democracy, freedom and human rights, to have greater independence from US underpinned by open economies, global foreign policy, but they remain divided institutions and international law. over strategic questions like relations For the populists, nativists and fas- with Russia and the scope for European cists, liberal democracy is a weakness, defence cooperation. not a strength. It threatens their concept Much of the anxiety in the West, of nationhood, which is bound together epitomised by the ‘Westlessness’ along ethnic, cultural or religious lines. theme of the 2020 Munich Security They do not share our commitment to Conference, is driven by uncertainty equality, our belief that diversity is a about how to respond to the growth of strength and our open-hearted approach China. By contrast, China is expanding to migrants and refugees. Their ideology influence across the world, exercising is fuelling the return of antisemitism,

44 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN with classic tropes about Jewish money, always been a left-wing tradition that power and influence and conspiracy sees the world through the prism of the theories about George Soros threatening cold war and has consistently backed the European way of life. It paints the wrong side, even after the cold war Islam as the enemy and Muslims as had ended. This is not, and never has the vanguard of an Islamic invasion. been, a Labour tradition, but as many It is inspiring far-right terrorism in of those who promoted this world view ‘defence of the nation’. It is also being joined Labour after 2015, it gained encouraged and exploited by our traction within the party, sullied our external enemies. reputation and clouded the judgement We should not be complacent about of some of our leaders. It has been seen the defence of our liberal democracy most frequently through the jeering of in Britain, or about the populistic journalists at Labour party events and tendencies of our mainstream political the attacks on the mainstream media. parties. During the Brexit crisis, Con- It was evident most egregiously when servative politicians made inflammatory Jeremy Corbyn cast doubt on whether statements that gave licence to attacks Russian agents attempted to murder on politicians, simply for acting in the Skripals using a chemical agent on accordance with their conscience. the streets of Salisbury and echoed the The government had to be taken to request of the Russian government for court to prevent an illegal prorogation a sample of the nerve agent to be sent of parliament in one of the most to Moscow for testing. Labour’s anti- tumultuous constitutional crises since semitism crisis stems from a worldview the English Civil War. It now persistently that puts Jews or Zionists at the centre threatens judicial independence. It has of a global capitalist conspiracy working also resisted media scrutiny and barred to create a rigged system that works critical publications and broadcasters for the wealthiest few at the expense from briefings, all whilst engaging of the many. It was this worldview that in attacks on the BBC. Trade union voters found repulsive and that we must freedoms were curtailed within months comprehensively abandon. of the Conservatives winning a majority in 2015, and the freedom of civil society FACING THE FUTURE to criticise government policy, already The Labour party has a long and proud curtailed by a so-called ‘gagging law’, history of internationalism. We were the has been further restricted in contracts last to give up on the League of Nations, with the government. Islamophobia and the Attlee government’s legacy has been a well-documented and poorly extends as much to building interna- addressed crisis within the ranks of the tional institutions like NATO, the UN Conservative party. and the rules based international system The Labour party has not been as it does to the creation of the welfare immune from populist tendencies or state. It is our responsibility to help an anti-Western world view. There has Britain forge a new future: standing up

45 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651 for our values to defend and advance be as essential as domestic military democracy, freedom and human rights. capability in a post-Brexit world. But we will need to convince a sceptical The Labour party has always been public that Labour has the right aims united in its desire to see a world free and values, the means to deliver and the from nuclear weapons, but at odds as will to act in the national interest. to how this should be achieved. We have endured tortured debates about whether KEEPING US SAFE AT HOME to support unilateral disarmament since AND DEFENDING OUR the Attlee government first gave the NEIGHBOURHOOD green light to Britain’s nuclear deterrent. The first responsibility of any Under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, the government is to ensure the safety Labour party committed to maintaining and security of its citizens – therefore the nuclear deterrent, but our policy we should be crystal clear that this was undermined by a clear statement will always be the core purpose of any that the Labour leader would never Labour government. use them, thus making our deterrent Defence cuts during the last decade nothing of the sort. have left the UK with the smallest army The next Labour leader should be since the Napoleonic wars, the RAF clear that we do not believe the world has its smallest fighting force in its 100- would be safer if our enemies had year history and the delayed delivery of a monopoly on nuclear weapons and the Royal Navy’s new type 31 frigates that we are committed to multilateral have left Britain with a smaller fleet disarmament. It should be the position than Italy. In opposition, the Labour of any aspiring prime minister that party should begin work on a shadow Britain has both the means and the strategic defence and security review will to act in response to a nuclear (SDSR) to lay the foundations for strike on our country. commitments in our next manifesto Since the 1940s, the NATO alliance to modernise and expand Britain’s has been the cornerstone of our defence defence capability and to ensure that and security. The Labour party should in government our first SDSR is focused be unequivocal about our support for on ensuring that our armed forces and NATO and our commitment to Article 5 security services have the right people, of the Washington Treaty: that an attack equipment and resources to provide on one member is an attack on all. But the UK with a ‘full spectrum’ capa- the uncertainty caused by the current bility to guard against future threats. occupant of the Oval Office should serve Ensuring British sovereign capability as a wake-up call to Europe about the requires that these changes be imple- risks of an over-reliance on the United mented in conjunction with prioritising States and the need for Europeans to a domestic UK defence manufacturing take greater responsibility for our own sector and a defence industrial strategy. collective defence, particularly in the Sovereign manufacturing skills will face of Russian provocation. However

46 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN the Five Eyes partnership with the norms of behaviour, international laws, USA, Canada, Australia and New protocols, treaties, trade agreements and Zealand will always remain the bedrock institutions we have created together. of our defence. Promoting, defending and extending the Although we will be outside of the rules-based international order, rooted formal institutions of the European in democracy, freedom and human Union, the UK is a European country rights, should be the central plank of and our security at home rests on the our values-led British foreign policy security of our neighbourhood. Outside and at the heart of all our relationships. of the EU, we should strengthen the E3 We should seek to strengthen key relationship between Britain, France institutions like the UN, NATO and and Germany and be enthusiastic in the Bretton Woods Institutions and use our support for deeper cooperation on our influence and expertise to create defence and foreign policy among EU new institutions and alliances to tackle member states. We should commit to global challenges, from climate change developing mechanisms for strong UK- to ethics in artificial intelligence. EU defence cooperation to defend our The European Union is our closest continent and to maximise our collective neighbour and, though the Brexit capabilities across the world. negotiations have put pressure on our friendship, we share the same values A VALUES-DRIVEN AND and the closest economic partnership MISSION-LED FOREIGN POLICY of any third country. In opposition, the The UK is no longer a global superpow- Labour party should make the case for er, but we have an important role to play the UK keeping the closest possible on the global stage. We are a permanent relationship with the EU’s single market member of the UN Security Council, and customs union, to protect jobs and with the second-biggest military budget our economy and to pursue our shared in NATO, and a leader in intelligence global aims. A strong EU is in the UK’s and security. We are one of the biggest national interest as the EU’s closest ally. financial contributors to international The special relationship with the aid and development and DfID’s inde- United States of America is under pendent expertise is widely respected. pressure like never before. The Trump We are a European country with administration has taken a number of unbreakable bonds across the continent unilateral decisions on key issues like and over the Irish Sea. Through the the Iran nuclear deal and its approach G7, the G20 and the Commonwealth to international trade which we do not we have a broad network of allies and support and which sometimes under- influence around the world. mine the UK’s interests. The British The rules-based international system government’s decision to grant Huawei developed after the end of the Second a role in the UK’s 5G network has World War is underpinned by liberal caused a further rift with our US allies. democratic values and upheld by the This disruption will hopefully end with

47 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651 the election of a new president in 2021, obligations to the people of Hong Kong or certainly by 2025. The US-UK rela- or on our responsibilities to our allies, tionship has always been deeper than like Japan, the USA and our wider Five the relationship between our presidents Eyes partners. and prime ministers and we should If ‘Global Britain’ is to mean resist anti-Americanism favoured by anything, it must surely mean recognis- some on the left whilst equally protest- ing the importance of building stronger ing the Trump administration’s attempts relationships with regional powers to undermine multilateralism and in Asia, Africa and South America, international norms let alone common and renewing our commitment to the decency. The current incumbent of the Commonwealth, which represents White House has demonstrated why our almost a third of the world’s population. existing multi-tiered engagement policy As well as being values-led, our for- with the US is so necessary, and we eign policy should have clearly defined must do all we can to preserve it. and understood missions. Chapter Four The Huawei decision underlined the of this pamphlet argues for the UK to wider debate about the nature of our show clear leadership on tackling the relationship with China. There can be climate emergency as a priority. Chapter little doubt about the weight of China’s Three argues for the UK helping to growing economic and geopolitical define common rules and international influence, as well as its military and norms around the use of AI and other technological capabilities. The UK has aspects of the technological revolution. built a strong dialogue with the Chinese As a global financial centre, the UK is government. Under David Cameron, a well placed to lead the global debate ‘golden era’ of Sino-British relations was around the rules of our financial system declared and the UK is one of the few and a Labour government should put countries in the world to have a formal the focus on economic justice described human rights dialogue with China. In in Chapter One at the heart of our the context of a power play between global leadership. China and the USA, we can have a A model of what could be a mis- relationship with both, but our relation- sion-led approach to British foreign ship cannot be equidistant between the policy can be found in our approach two. In terms of our values and history to international aid and development we are in every sense the United States’ since 1997. The Department for Inter- natural ally. We should not treat China national Development and, to a lesser as an adversary, but instead we should but increasing extent, its UK AID brand, seek to work together to promote trade is recognised across the world for the and co-operation on global issues of leadership, expertise, direct delivery, common concern; to challenge and partnerships and convening power it influence, where possible, China’s offers the world in pursuit of the sus- human rights record; and not to com- tainable development goals. It is one of promise on our moral and treaty-based and Gordon Brown’s greatest

48 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN legacies and it is to their credit that Da- lessons of Iraq, we should also learn the vid Cameron and had lessons of Bosnia, Kosovo, and Sierra the wisdom to keep DFID and maintain Leone where British action alongside a commitment to spending 0.7 per cent the wider international community of GNI on aid. But DFID and the UK’s saved countless lives. We should also commitment to international aid and remember the mass graves and untold development remain under constant tragedies of Rwanda, where the world scrutiny and attack from right-wing stood by, and remember Syria, where ideologues within the Conservative Western reluctance to act in 2013 created party and they should be resolutely a vacuum which Russia filled to the defended. DFID should remain as detriment of the Syrian people. a separate government department The next Labour government should and the 0.7 per cent commitment should uphold the responsibility to protect as be maintained, with every penny being part of our values-led foreign policy and spent on genuine aid and development a progressive, multilateral, approach to projects, rather than backfilling cuts humanitarian intervention. in other UK government departments or as sweeteners to export contracts PLAYING TO OUR which brought the Thatcher and Major DIPLOMATIC STRENGTHS governments into such disrepute. The UK has one of the finest diplomatic services in the world, but it has not RESPONSIBILITY TO PROTECT been immune to a decade of austerity. In 2005, the UK signed up to the A significant increase to the Foreign and United Nations’ ‘responsibility to Commonwealth Office’s budget would protect civilians’ principle: when be small beer for the Treasury and it a government either wilfully fails to is essential if we want to deploy our protect the security of its citizens, or influence effectively. We must rebuild is unable to do so, the international the skills pool available to the govern- community has a clear obligation to ment at the FCO, GCHQ and MI6 by intervene. Such interventions could seeking out digital communications include diplomatic means, sanctions specialists and a greater number of and military action. foreign language speakers. The Iraq war, which was a cata- The UK has considerable soft power strophic foreign policy failure, has assets too. The British Council, the BBC cast a long shadow over Labour’s debate World Service, our education system, about how, or whether, it is right for the our creative industries, science and UK to engage in military intervention. technology and business strengths are Every situation should be judged on linchpins for our global influence and its merits, recognising that both action should be cherished. We should contin- and inaction are a choice and that each ue to welcome global talent to work and choice has consequences. Just as we study in the UK, invest in organisations should never overlook or forget the like the British Council and the BBC and

49 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651 expand the opportunities to showcase Let us face the world as an open, British strengths through our global confident and optimistic country with network of embassies, consulates and the conviction that our best days, and trade missions. the best days of humanity, lie ahead.

50 CONCLUSION

PEOPLE, PLACES AND PLANET: A NEW STORY FOR OUR PARTY AND A BRIGHTER FUTURE FOR OUR COUNTRY

What is now proved was wealth and opportunity. We are failing once only imagined. to care for people later on in life. We – William Blake are at the beginning of a technological revolution that is changing every It is time for us to write a new story for aspect of our work, lives and democ- our country and Labour’s place within racy, for better and for worse. There is it. Children born in Britain today are a climate emergency that is burning among the luckiest on the planet. We are our planet. Old adversaries like poverty, the sixth richest economy in the world. disease and tyranny are manifesting We are home to world-class universities, themselves in new ways. It doesn’t have captains of industry, and groundbreak- to be like this. ing inventors, artists and entrepreneurs. Our story is about people. We believe The birthplace of Shakespeare and that everyone deserves to live a good the Beatles remains a global centre of life: to have a place they can call home, music, literature, fashion, art, design to have a good job that provides an and film. Our military, foreign aid, income that does more than pay the diplomatic and intelligence services bills, to have quality time to spend with provide a cornerstone of international their friends and family, to enjoy arts development, peace and security. We and culture, leisure and recreation. We are a beacon of democracy, freedom and believe that everyone deserves the best human rights. 1.5 billion people around start in life, with the best education in the world speak our language and more the world that provides learning for life. than 40 million people visit the United We believe that everyone deserves to Kingdom each year. enjoy their retirement, not just to look But this is also a country with back on a life well-lived but to live life intolerable levels of inequality in power, to the full until the very end. We believe

51 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651 that the state, the private sector and the basic conditions to lead a good life, civil society have a shared role to play it is simply a question of will. in promoting human flourishing. Throughout the party’s 120-year We believe that all human beings history, every Labour government has are born equal and that our rights are changed our country for the better, underpinned by our responsibilities to but our time in government has been each other. When we are sick, we care too short and the agony of opposition for each other. When we are disabled, too long. Our values are timeless, but we enable each other. When we are they are meaningless unless they’re down on our luck, we help to pull each made real by Labour governments other back up. When we have done elected by the people. Power and something wrong, we accept there are principle go hand in hand. consequences and we rehabilitate each other. When we see wrongdoing or LABOUR WINS WHEN WE TURN injustice, we never turn a blind eye. OUR FACES FIRMLY TO THE FUTURE Our story is about places. Our pride Let us face the future again as reformers in this great country, the achievements of our broken capitalist system and of our United Kingdom and our as champions of a dynamic and determination that it can and should enterprising economy where economic be better. We believe that the places we prosperity and social justice go hand call home, where we work, play, learn, in hand, where the contribution we laugh, eat, shop and socialise, the places make reflects the debt we owe we came from and live now, and which society and where we’re all better we will build together, should be places off when the country is better off. where we feel like we belong, feel safe Let us win back trust that we will and like spending time. tax fairly and spend wisely to support Our story is about our planet. We enterprise and success alongside our believe that we are temporary custodi- historic mission to end poverty. Let ans of the world that we share together us reimagine the state and our public and that each of us has a responsibility services by presiding over the biggest to care for our environment and the devolution of power and resources in life on Earth that it sustains. We care our country’s history and commission about the world beyond our own a 21st century Beveridge Commission islands and wish to see a world without to build a more flexible, responsive and hunger and hardship, tyranny and relational state, so that people in all oppression and needless suffering. parts of this country can take greater Our ambitions and our aspirations, control over our lives and our destinies. for ourselves, our families, our com- Let’s make sure that every part of munities, our country and our planet the country has access to the services aren’t radical. But achieving them really and infrastructure they need to live would be. It is no longer beyond our wit good lives. Let’s return to the tried or capability to provide everyone with and tested approach of being tough

52 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN on crime and tough on the causes of Let us face the future again with crime as the party of law and order. the ambition and the urgency that the Let us face the future again for climate emergency demands. Let’s make our ageing society, so that retirement this a national mission with the bold is something to look forward to, rather action needed to make sure that life than something to fear. Let’s create a on our planet has a future and future society where older people feel appreci- generations can look back with gratitude ated for their contribution to our country and pride that we got it right. Let our and where those who care for them are position as a global financial centre valued for the important personal and lead the way in greening finance across public service they provide. Let’s care the world. Let’s make this industrial more about how we fund the living, revolution a green industrial revolution, than how we tax the dead. using every lever available to incentivise Let us face the future again as the right behaviour and decarbonise our the pioneers of this technological economy, recognising that government revolution. Let’s push the frontiers can’t do this alone. Let’s make this of scientific discovery and make sure transition to a zero carbon economy that the sum of human knowledge is a just transition, not simply preventing used for the good of all humanity, to the further decline of the communities spread power, wealth and opportunity that experienced the sharp end of and extend freedom to those who do import shocks, globalisation, and rapid not yet have it. Let’s prepare people to deindustrialisation, but actively seeking face the future with a lifelong learning to reverse those trends so that those system that provides opportunities for communities reap the benefit of green learning from the cradle to the grave. industry and green jobs. Let’s make the future one that works for Let us face the future again, so that everyone, with a Good Work Com- democracy, rather than tyranny, defines mission to set a new global standard the 21st century. Let’s write a story for for employment rights and protections our country where people look again for the changing world of work. Let’s to the United Kingdom as a beacon advance our position as global leaders of democracy, freedom and human in research and development, by rights. Let’s rebuild the rules-based increasing the share of GDP we invest international order and institutions in R&D to three per cent by 2030 that give meaning to the notion that all and let’s build an innovation nation human beings are born free and equal that can apply its research so that the in dignity and rights. financial returns and industrial gains If we decide that we’re serious about benefit our whole country. Let’s apply winning again, we can forge a path to our technological breakthroughs to a new future for the Labour party and transform the state and our public write the story of our country’s future. services and face the biggest challenges Therein lies the hope for our party and, of our time. with it, our country.

53 FABIAN IDEAS NO. 651

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I owe a considerable debt of gratitude ing, inclusive and ecumenical space to to a wide range of people who were debate ideas away from the internecine generous with their time and expertise. conflict of the party. The selection of the Any shortcomings or errors are the five big challenges that form the core responsibility of the author alone. chapters of this pamphlet were derived I’d like to thank the Fabian from the Britain in the 2020s paper Society for publishing this work and I produced for the group to inform our for embracing the idea of the pamphlet collective thinking about the future of the so enthusiastically, particularly Kate left. I am grateful to Morgan McSweeney, Murray for her editorial direction, and Hannah O’Rourke, Jonathan Rutherford Andy Harrop for his advice on the and parliamentary colleagues involved in drafting and framing. Labour Together for giving me the excuse I am especially grateful to David to do the thinking in advance of the Coats, Annajoy David, Matthew Hood, crossroads we’ve reached in the Labour Darren Jones, , , party’s history. Roger Liddle, Josh MacAlister, Adam Finally, I have been fortunate to have McNicholas, Owain Mumford, Chris had the best staff team that any member Phillips, Rachel Reeves, Amy Richards, of parliament could ever wish for, led by Ruth Smeeth, David Taylor, Mira Vogel, Matt Goddin. Keir Mather, Alex Chitty Melanie Ward and Steve Wardlaw for and Eve Mason provided extensive commenting on earlier drafts, as well as research and first-class editorial input, providing policy input and inspiration. Lloyd Duddridge provided inspiration Diane Coyle, Jamie Susskind and and challenge to my thinking through- Daniel Susskind were particularly out, and Jay Asher’s input indulged generous with their time prior to the my refusal to accept that he doesn’t 2019 general election to help inform actually work for me any more. As well my thinking about the future. Richard as providing lots of input, I am especial- Angell provided a constant sounding ly grateful to my partner, Joe Dancey, for board throughout. his patience while my head was buried For the best part of the last three years in reading and writing during weekends Labour Together has provided a welcom- and recesses.

54 LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN

ENDNOTES

1 How Britain voted in the 2019 general 12 Breaking Point: The social care burden election, YouGov, 17 December 2019 on women – Age UK (March 2019)

2 Britain risks heading to US levels of 13 What should be done to fix the crisis inequality, warns top economist, The in social care? The Health Foundation, Guardian, 14 May 2019 August 2019

3 Prosperity and justice: A plan for the new 14 Why international recruits are vital for economy – The final report of the IPPR better social care, , Commission on Economic Justice 22 February 2020

4 Britain risks heading to US levels 15 Tory ‘red wall’ seats to be hit hard by of inequality, warns top economist, automation over the next decade, Future , 14 May 2019 Advocacy, February 2020

5 1st Report Uk 2070 Executive Summary, 16 ‘Three Rs’ on the decline as a quarter Uk2070 Commission of adults have a reading age so low they struggle to read a bus timetable. 6 UK regional inequality likely to widen The Telegraph, 28 August 2016 further, warns study, Financial Times, 29 May 2019 17 Headline Findings, UK Climate Panel 2018 7 Future Proof Britain in the 2020s, IPPR, December 2016 18 ‘Unprecedented’: more than 100 Arctic wildfires burn in worst ever season, 8 UK high streets shed 140k jobs this year The Guardian, 26 July 2019 with more to come – study, The Guardian, 30 December 2019 19 84% of world’s fastest growing cities face ‘extreme’ climate change risks, Verisk 9 Brexit and the economy: Government Maplecroft,, 21 November 2018 analysis of the long-term impact, House of Commons Library, 05 December 2018 20 ‘People are dying’: how the climate crisis has sparked an exodus to the US, 10 Mariana Mazzucato, Mission-oriented The Guardian, 29 July 2019 Policy Innovation, The RSA, 2017 21 Climate, conflict and forced migration, 11 What should be done to fix the crisis Global Environmental Change in social care? The Health Foundation, Volume 54, January 2019 August 2019

55 ABOUT THE AUTHOR Wes Streeting is the Labour MP for North and a member of the executive committee of the Fabian Society. Prior to his election to parliament, he was deputy leader of the London Borough of Redbridge and spent his career outside politics in senior roles focused on tackling educational disadvantage. LET US FACE THE FUTURE AGAIN

WES STREETING MP

After a disastrous election result, Labour needs a fresh and hopeful vision to rebuild trust with the country. To win again, the party will have to leave nostalgia behind and develop a programme which addresses the big questions of our day. How can we end the inequality and poverty which blight our nations? What should we do to ensure everyone has a good life in older age? How do we harness the benefits of new technology to create good work for all? What should we prioritise to tackle the climate emergency? How do we forge new relationships with the EU and the rest of the world? In this pamphlet, Wes Streeting MP sets out a Labour programme which can win again and, in so doing, improve the lives of millions. In the spirit of the 1945 Labour manifesto, he suggests it is time for Labour to face the future again.

FABIAN IDEAS NO.651 ISBN 978-0-7163-0651-1 £5.95