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International Journal of Obesity (2015) 39, 82–84 © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited All rights reserved 0307-0565/15 www.nature.com/ijo DEBATE ‘Obesity paradox’ misunderstands the biology of optimal weight throughout the life cycle JB Dixon1, GJ Egger2, EA Finkelstein3, JG Kral4 and GW Lambert1 The ‘obesity paradox’ refers to observations that run counter to the thesis that normal weight (BMI 18.5–24.9 kg/m2) provides the lowest mortality and higher weight is associated with greater mortality. We argue that the weight of lowest mortality is influenced by aging and chronic disease, with mortality advantage extending into the overweight and even class I obese ranges under some circumstances. A focus on quality nutrition, physical activity, fitness, and maintaining function in these weight ranges may be preferable to a focus on intentional weight loss, which has uncertain effects. The ‘obesity paradox’ is no ‘paradox’ if one defines and interprets ‘ideal’ weight appropriately. International Journal of Obesity (2015) 39, 82–84; doi:10.1038/ijo.2014.59 Keywords: healthy aging; reverse causation; obesity epidemic; survival advantage; body mass index The ‘obesity paradox’ assumes that being overweight or even frailty. As median life expectancy increases, so do aging-related obese, measured by body mass index (BMI) cutoffs, provides diseases, the foundations of which may have been laid down very mortality advantage compared to being ‘normal’ weight (BMI early in life (‘developmental origins of adult disease’). 18.5–24.9 kg/m2). Perhaps the most convincing data come from How do we reconcile these apparently paradoxical observa- population studies indicating that whereas obesity (BMI>30) is tions? We propose that there is no paradox. Rather, our current associated with higher all-cause mortality, overweight (BMI narrow, rigid view of ‘normal’ or ‘optimal’ weight is simplistic and 25–29.9 kg/m2) exhibits the lowest mortality risk. Both normal biologically inappropriate. The concept that all adults have a weight and class I obesity (BMI 30–34.9 kg/m2) entail increased risk weight or weight range that is associated with optimal health is compared with overweight.1 Yet, there is a clear linear rise in the reasonable, but the notion that this range is the same for all prevalences of type 2 diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidemia individuals, or over the lifecycle regardless of antecedents or throughout the normal, overweight and class I obese ranges.2,3 context, is not. The response to the mortality findings is understandably met The association between BMI and mortality is usually U-shaped with a knee jerk ‘it cannot be right’, followed by suspicion and a with increasing risk at both low and high ends of the continuum, range of more or less sophisticated reasons to dismiss the but the nadir, or optimal BMI for lowest mortality is not a constant observations. Emphasis on the obesity epidemic, understandably and appears to vary with age, ethnicity and the presence of focusing on the huge costs in terms of suffering and threats to the established disease. Human aging provides perhaps the most economy, subjugates any public health message proposing natural example of a shifting association between BMI and lowest benefits of increased weight. mortality risk, as shown in Figure 1, with those over 70 years of Yet, there are many cases where this is indeed the case. Hip age appearing to have an optimal BMI for mortality in the fracture risk in post menopausal women reduces with increasing overweight and class I obese range, and any risks usually BMI.4 And when it comes to mortality, there are consistent reports associated with even higher levels of obesity are attenuated or that overweight and class I obese individuals have a lower absent.9–11 In addition, BMI above the normal range in older mortality than those of normal weight for a range of diseases and individuals may also be associated with better functional capacity, conditions. There is clear evidence for a fit-fat ‘metabolically and reduced physical and cognitive decline.9 The relationship healthy’ obese phenotype,5 but conditions with lower risk include between disease risk, mortality and BMI also varies considerably cardiac failure, type 2 diabetes,6 peripheral vascular disease, acute with ethnicity and race as seen when comparing disease risk in coronary syndromes, hypertension with established coronary White, Asian and various indigenous populations.12 artery disease,7 chronic kidney disease on maintenance haemo- Dismissing sound observations carries great risk yet, as for many dialysis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and following aspects of the global obesity epidemic, it seems that most lay coronary artery bypass graft surgery and valve surgery.8 This list is people as well as professionals have firm opinions regarding dominated by common chronic conditions, which, ironically, are causes, risks, management, and optimal targets for intentional often targeted for intentional weight loss as a therapeutic strategy weight loss. There is clearly a propensity to dismiss observations in overweight and obese individuals. contrary to one’s attitudes and beliefs. Fortunately, although after The premise tested by evolution is that energy reserves are some delay, putative explanations for the apparent paradox of needed in times of illness, increasing with age, sarcopenia and obesity have emerged. Understandable concerns regarding 1Baker IDI Heart & Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; 2School of Health & Human Sciences, Southern Cross University, Lismore, Balgowlah NSW, Australia; 3Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, Singapore, Singapore and 4Department of Surgery, SUNY Downstate Medical Center, 450 Clarkson Avenue, Brooklyn, NY, USA. Correspondence: Professor JB Dixon, Clinical Obesity Research, Baker IDI Heart & Diabetes Institute, PO Box 6492 St Kilda Road Central, Melbourne, VIC 8008, Australia. E-mail: [email protected] Received 18 December 2013; accepted 26 January 2014; accepted article preview online 15 April 2014; advance online publication, 20 May 2014 Optimal weight varies JB Dixon et al 83 cardiovascular risk and type 2 diabetes, and the beneficial effects on hypertension, dyslipidemia, glucose homeostasis, sleep and functional outcomes have been documented, but the influence on hard cardiovascular outcomes and mortality has not. Furthermore, the importance of choice of method for achieving intentional weight loss has not been adequately addressed. The large prospective ‘Look Ahead’ study, which examined the effect of an intensive weight loss-focused lifestyle program in overweight and obese individuals with type 2 diabetes, was prematurely terminated on the basis of a futility analysis that found the intensive program did not reduce the risk of cardiovascular events.23 The Look Ahead findings may suggest a mismatch Figure 1. Relative risk of all-cause mortality across BMI categories, between improved cardiovascular risk. Several longitudinal studies stratified by age group, based on NHANES I, II and III data. Adapted have also found weight loss, rather than weight stability or even from Flegal et al. JAMA. 2005;293(15):1861–1867. weight gain, is associated with increased mortality in overweight and obese individuals with type 2 diabetes and/or suspected 24,25 10 cardiovascular disease. intentional versus unintentional weight loss (reverse causation), While the data regarding the risks of diabetes and cardio- and a selective survival bias effect were logical frontrunners. vascular morbidity with increasing BMI are overwhelming, there fi However, ndings contrary to expectation are not necessarily has been limited attention paid to the possibility of an altered caused by bias, and attempts to adjust for illness-related weight 10 BMI nadir or optimal weight for all-cause and cardiovascular loss have found little evidence of such bias. The durability and mortality in those with established disease. The concept consistency of the data has generated a broader approach to of variance in optimal weight range is not implausible and understanding possible additional mechanisms that may be has significant clinical implications, and so warrants careful involved. Chronic diseases and aging are associated with evaluation. reductions in lean body mass and especially muscle mass, lower Future research will need a convergent epidemiological, clinical, bone mineral density, compromised nutrition, and impaired and preclinical approach to examine the array of important — physical function issues that may be greater in those of lower questions generated by a variable optimal weight range, and weight and attenuated in people with greater weight. Increased uncertainty regarding when and how to utilize intentional weight weight (including fatness) may provide advantages in aging and loss. More focused epidemiological population and cohort studies disease states through a number of possible mechanisms looking at weight, weight trajectory and health, using the including: sparing lean body mass; reducing the impact of fl appropriate methods to assess bias and causality, are oxidative stress and in ammation; providing a favorable func- needed.10,26,27 Additional carefully designed longitudinal clinical tional lipid/lipoprotein profile; stabilising hemodynamic function; studies that assess the influence of body composition, nutritional sequestering fat-soluble environmental pollutants; reducing status, and a range of established and novel risk factors on regional sympathetic activity; ischaemic
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