July 28, 2021

To: Senate Democratic Caucus House Democratic Caucus Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

From: Immigration Hub, People’s Action, Service Employees International Union (SEIU), and Voto Latino

Ref: The 2022 Electoral Imperative: Deliver on Citizenship for Dreamers and Undocumented Immigrants to Maintain Majority, Galvanize Critical Blocs of Votersand Prevent Backlash [CONFIDENTIAL]

Introduction

Citizenship for undocumented immigrants in America can no longer remain an unf ulflled campaign promise for the Democratic Party. Today, as President Biden makes headway on his immigration blueprint, the opportunity to deliver on this long held pledge is fnally viable via the groundbreaking Senate Democratic leadership’s budget reconciliation plan. With both the urgency of the recent federal ruling on DACA and a very consequential election nearing, the electoral imperative for Democrats is to act both rhetorically and legislatively on citizenship to win votes in battleground states and among key voting blocs. Failure to fulfll this basic campaign promise will depress base turnout, particularly among Latinos, leave critical swing votes on the table, and result in widespread losses for Democrats in the upcoming midterms and potentially sacrifce the White House in 2024.

For over a decade, citizenship for undocumented immigrants has remained highly salient across the political spectrum. In 2012, Democrats galvanized Latino voters with the promise of citizenship, DACA and relief for farm workers and many more undocumented immigrants while increasing pro-immigrant sentiment among base and swing voters. For years following 2012, immigration legislation failed to pass as the Republican Party began evolving a political strategy centered on weaponizing immigration to create culture wars, division and distractions to rally far right voters and block or terminate protections for undocumented immigrants -- a strategy the party still employs today to undermine the Biden agenda and unseat 2022 Democratic hopefuls.

Evolving with the Republican strategy is a common and now outdated misconception that humane and commonsense immigration solutions are a political loser for Democrats and their outreach to white working America and other swing voters at large. This notion has been detrimental to consolidating and exciting critical blocs of theelectorate, namely moderate white voters and Latino voters.

Contrary to this notion, voter movement, polling, social listening, digital research, deep canvassing, partner analyses and election results consistently show that: 1. When Democrats push forward - publicly and clearly- their vision and values-based solutions on immigration in stark contrast to the Republican attacks and crackdown approach to the issue, they win the public debate and persuade voters while also inoculating swing voters who are targeted by the opposition. By not allowing Republicans to be the sole voices flling the vacuum on the issue, Democrats are able to prevent voter backlash on immigration, validate pro-immigrant sentiment, and move voters in favor of Democratic candidates. Alternatively, allowing Republican attacks to go unanswered deepens voter misunderstanding of the Democratic position on the issue, fattens base enthusiasm, and moves a set of moderates vulnerable to GOP messaging and misinformation.

2. Latino voters can be re-engaged, persuaded and galvanizedby delivering on citizenship for undocumented immigrants. Over the last few cycles, the Republican Party has made gains on the Latino vote through targeted misinformation, painting Democratic positions on immigration - among other issues - as fraught and dangerous. One of the primary ways Democrats can counteract this trend and excite and regain ground with Latino voters in key battleground states is by investing in targeted outreach, socializing their position on immigration and, more importantly, delivering legislation that creates a path to citizenship for Dreamers, farm workers, TPS-holders and other undocumented immigrants. Ultimately, the unfulflled promise of 2012 must be fulflled to help redefne the Democratic Party among Latinos.

3. Delivering on citizenship consolidates critical sets of voters - the base, the middle and Latino voters- increasing the opportunity for major battleground wins in 2022. From Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to , North Carolina and Florida, white suburban and Latino voters will play a crucial role in maintaining and fipping senate and congressional seats. Republicans have already admitted that, once again, the “border” and “amnesty” will be used against Democrats and President Biden. To put a defnitive block against these attacks beyond winning the public debate and socializing the Democratic vision on immigration, Democrats must pass legislation that creates a path to citizenship for undocumented populations -- thereby generating excitement among the base - including Black and AAPI voters - and the Latino electorate, and persuading and inoculating other key swing voters against Republican and right-wing attacks and misinformation.

Win the public debate, lean in: Citizenship is an opportunity for Democrats to persuade critical blocs of voters and prevent backlash.

Voters across the political spectrum believe the nation’s immigration system is broken and want to see it fxed. Notably, voters want to see the system fxed with Democratic proposals. Consistent with polling since 2018, the Immigration Hub, FWD.us and America’s Voice’s latest June 2021 survey, conducted by Global Strategy Group, Hart Research and BSP Research, found that voters are far more supportive of an approach that builds a functioning and humane immigration system over the “crackdown” approach of the Republican Party. The majority of voters, including Independents, support citizenship for undocumented immigrants, smart border management, and a robust plan to manage migration in a orderly and safe way and by addressing the root causes of migration. Their support for these solutions aligns with President Biden’s immigration blueprint; and in fact, Democrats hold the trust advantage over Republicans on the issue.

Immigration - namely citizenship - is an opportunity for Democrats, and a vulnerability for Republicans. Citizenship for undocumented immigrants has remained consistently salient among voters, including Republicans, Independents, Black, AAPI and Latino voters; sustaining an an average support of 70% (or more) since 2015. This remains true in 2021 when poll after poll - from NPR/Ipsos to AGL Research - has found strong majority support for passing legislation that would create pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. The Hub’s poll also found support for citizenship for Dreamers, farmworkers, and essential workers at above 70% among swing voters.

However, while House Democrats have passed two bills ofering citizenship to Dreamers, TPS-holders and farm workers, voters largely do not know where Democrats stand on immigration. In the 2021 Hub poll, the majority of voters did not know what President Biden stood for on immigration, and thus carried low approval numbers on the issue. The same was apparent in another poll conducted by EquisLab and BSP Research where majority Latino voters were not clear on Democrats’ position on the issue. In both polls, when the president’s solutions were articulated, there was a dramatic shift in support of Biden’s approach to immigration and the border. This refects the Hub’s 2018 and 2020 research which showed that values-based, pro-immigrant messaging and policies are not only supported by battleground voters, but are also persuasive.

Simply, the notion that immigration is a political loser for Democrats has created bad political habits such as ignoring immigration attacks or failing to talk immigration to their voters at all. This is simply dangerous, and moderating on

2 solutions does little to shift voter sentiment. When Democrats fail to articulate a bold, values- based vision for immigration, Republicans fll the vacuum and move critical sets of moderates who are vulnerable to their attacks and misinformation while, at large, voters fail to understand what Democrats stand for on the issue.

Voter contact programs and research in 2018 and 2020 demonstrated that by contrasting Trump and Republican position on immigration with values-based, pro-immigrant messaging and solutions like citizenship, critical blocs of voters in battleground states can be persuaded to support pro-immigrant policies and Democratic candidates, and inoculated against divisive, anti-immigrant attacks and policies. This was markedly evident in 2018 when voters overwhelmingly rejected Republican messaging around the “caravan” and opted for pro-immigrant candidates, helping fip the House.

In a 2020 experiment conducted by People’s Action, deep canvassing took place among white, working-class voters in rural Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The results showed a dramatic shift in support for including undocumented immigrants in expanded social safety net programs. In the same year, the Immigration Hub also worked with BlueLabs Analytics to test a series of real-world political, immigration-focused ads on voters in the key battleground states where they found that not only did voters move away from Trump, but Biden’s vision for immigration reform with a path to citizenship drove voter enthusiasm in his favor, while also damaging Trump’s support among crucial voting blocs: men and undecided voters. In a randomized controlled test, also conducted by BlueLabs and the Immigration Hub, of voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania before and after being exposed to the Hub’s pro-immigrant content, swing voters moved toward Biden by fve percentage points and away from Trump by seven percentage points - among other movements on views in favor of immigration policy solutions.

Ultimately, voter outreach programs in 2020 centered on employing pro-immigrant, solutions-based messaging, ads and policies shifted voter sentiment on the issue and moved voters in favor of Democrats, such as President Joe Biden, Pennsylvania’s Rep. Susan Wild (PA-07), Michigan’s Rep. Elissa Slotkin (MI-08), Arizona’s Sen. Mark Kelly, Georgia Lucy McBath (GA-6) and Colorado’s Sen. John Hickenlooper. This continued a series of successes in efectively maximizing the issue that began with Sen. Harry Reid’s (D-NV) 2010 race and that of Sen. Michael Bennet’s (D-CO) election against hardline, anti-immigrant candidate Ken Buck.

What stands true then, stands true today: By leaning in and socializing the Democratic vision on immigration in contrast to the Republican agenda, Democrats can win the public debate and take a swath of critical voters.According to the June 2021 poll, conducted by three pollsters, 73% of voters say their own Senator should vote for citizenship proposals, while only 27% say their Senator should vote against them. Further, there is a political price to pay for Senators who stand in the way: 50% of voters say they are less likely to vote for a Senator who blocks citizenship legislation, while only 29% say they would be more likely to vote for a Senator who blocks the legislation.

Regain ground: Democrats can re-engage and galvanize Latino voters by f ulflling the promise of citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

Over the last few election cycles, the Democratic Party has seen an erosion of Latino voters at large and in key battleground regions, such as South Florida and the Rio Grande Valley. While the Trump campaign ultimately lost the Latino vote to both Hilary Clinton and candidate Joe Biden, respectively, the Republican Party and right-wing groups made gains through targeted advertising and misinformation. Among the hyperbolic attacks against Democrats, Republicans defned the Democrats’ position on immigration as one of “open borders” that would lead to crime, unemployment and disruption of elections. Unanswered, these attacks either persuaded voters in favor of Republicans or kept them home and, ultimately, defned Democrats on immigration for many battleground Latino voters.

Where voter engagement groups and Democratic candidates have aggressively reached the Latino electorate on immigration, the dividends have paid of. Notably, the political stories of Arizona (see LUCHA), Wisconsin (see Voces de la Frontera Action), Georgia (see Mijente, GLAHR and others), Colorado (see CIRC and COLOR) and Nevada (see the Culinary Workers Union)

3 are quintessential examples of how investment in Latino outreach and socializing the Democratic vision on immigration, among other relevant issues of concern, can move this electorate solidly into the Democratic coalition.

The Latino vote must not be taken for granted to win in 2022, ‘24 and future elections. Democrats have an opportunity to redefne their Party among Latino voters by boldly articulating their position, pushing back against Republicans, and delivering on the unf ulflled promise - immigration reform with a pathway to citizenship. A 2021 poll conducted by EquisLab and BSP Research found that:

● Much more must be done to shore up knowledge and awareness of what Biden and Democrats are promoting while seizing the opportunity to clearly defne Republicans as blocking progress. Even as the Republican Party has continued to play to a shrinking nativist base and admitted to obstructing the president’s agenda, Latino voters are still not aware of their position or believe the GOP are interested in bipartisan eforts – this presents a need and an opportunity to better defne Democratic solutions and Republican eforts to obstruct.

● Inaction on immigration will cost Democrats more than Republicans, however taking action can serve as a major boost for Democrats and President Biden. When asked who would deserve blame if immigration reform does NOT pass this year, Latinos are equally split with 30% blaming Biden/Democrats, 31% blaming Republicans and 40% blaming both parties equally. However, when given the alternative scenario, that immigration reform does pass, Democrats emerge with a +47 margin with 57% crediting Biden/Dems to only 10% crediting the GOP. This is particularly the case with key political segments such as Latino independents (48% credit Dems, 8% credit GOP, +40) and undecided Latino voters (45% credit Dems, 6% credit GOP, +39, and Latinos in Texas 61% credit Dems, 10% credit GOP, +51).

The promise of legislation that would create a pathway to citizenship energized the Latino electorate in 2012. Nearly ten years later that campaign pledge failed to materialize as Democrats gradually moved away from the issue and Republicans weaponized it against them. Their failure to deliver, on top of the near-silence on the issue, is not lost on the Latino electorate.

However, Democrats have an opportunity to regain the Latino electorate’s confdence and trust. According to the 2021 EquisLab and BSP Research poll, by an overwhelming margin, 80% to 20%, Latino voters are ready to credit Biden and Democrats for fnally addressing immigration. The majority agree, including 80% of independents and 56% of Republican Latinos, with the following perspective:

Politicians have been talking about fxing immigration for over 30 years and nothing permanent has been done. If President Biden signs into law an immigration reform that gives Dreamers permanent legal status and a path to citizenship, and essential workers such as undocumented farmworkers legal status and a path to a green card, it may not fx everything, but it shows he is living up to his campaign promises to get things done.

To close the margins and efectively brand the DemocraticParty as the party of Latino voters, Democrats mustseize the opportunity - tell Latinos where they stand onimmigration, frame the Republican position, and f ulfll the campaign promise on citizenship.

Delivering on citizenship consolidates critical sets of voters - the base, the middle and Latino voters- increasing the opportunity for major battleground wins in 2022.

Already, the Republican Party and anti-immigrant groups are using immigration to undermine President Biden’s overall agenda and defne Democrats. From boat tours on the southern border to ads attacking Sen. Mark Kelly (AZ), Trump’s playbook is back in an early start to defne the Democratic Party as the “open borders” party and block legislation. Furthermore, all signs signal that bipartisanship on the issue is merely an illusion, a political chess move to corner Democrats in defeat and fip seats in 2022.

4 There’s no question: going on ofense on immigration by delivering on citizenship is crucial to gaining and maintaining congressional seats. As stated in the frst section of this memorandum, Democrats can win the public debate and persuade voters by publicly and repeatedly articulating their solutions on immigration and the border. Already, President Biden has set the advantage for the party with the progress his administration has made to manage the border and migration, reunite families and undo egregious Trump policies. However, now the Biden administration must communicate their progress and Democrats in Congress must confdently move citizenship across the fnish line via budget reconciliation－denying Republicans another opportunity to once again take away a major policy and political victory.

Citizenship, the most popular among the immigration solutions, will consolidate critical sets of voters to swing the pendulum in favor of Democrats in battleground regions where either the trifecta of the electorate is needed (base, middle and Latino voters) or where less than a thousand votes over a candidate can clinch a seat. From the Black, Latino and AAPI electorate to white voters in swing districts, citizenship and solutions at the border can serve to move these voters away from Republicans in tight races who often weaponize the issue to pit communities against each other..

In 2020, a report by the Immigration Hub, America’s Voice and the NILC Justice Fund highlighted the major fndings from research, digital testing and voter outreach programs in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin that ultimately underscored three primary themes: (1) Trump and Republican anti-immigrant attacks had increasingly become political liabilities, (2) the American electorate’s support, especially that of swing voters (including Latinos), for pro-immigrant policies and opposition to Trump’s immigration approach continued to swell, and (3) an opportunity existed to go on ofense on immigration, create a net negative for anti-immigrant candidates and move voters in favor of pro-immigrant candidates. The latter point was particularly evident in the following case studies:

● Arizona. Arizonans, like many others across the nation, were in favor of solutions, not the division promoted by Trump and McSally. Polls conducted by ALG Research and Global Strategy Group, respectively, found that pro-immigrant policies enjoyed wide support among the majority of voters, including swing voters. Not lost on Arizona voters are the anti-immigrant legislative and legal battles of the last decade that resulted in the defeat of xenophobic former sherif of Maricopa County and the expulsion from ofce of state Sen. Russell Pearce. Thanks to 10 years of organizing and investment in Latino voter education, turnout and registration, LUCHA, the MiAZ coalitions and other groups were able to help fip Arizona -- a fght that was driven a decade earlier by the resolve to combat egregious immigration policies, racial profling and deportations. The story of Arizona underscores that both progressive immigration solutions work to move an electorate and, most importantly, parachuting into a state to move Latinos on an election cycle is not enough or strategic.

● Georgia. Former Senator Perdue’s campaign, aided by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), the GOP Senate superPAC, used various anti-immigrant, xenophobic, and anti-semitic ads to attack then candidate Jon Ossof who did not shy away from immigration. His immigration position, on top of aggressive Latino vote outreach that allowed Latinos to shatter their best turnout numbers in a runof election, helped move the margins against Purdue.

● Michigan. A poll of 623 registered Michigan voters, conducted by Change Research, in the last week before Election Day found anti-immigrant attacks against Sen. Peters failed to convince voters while large majorities of voters support a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and Dreamers. Sen. Peters had been attacked for his support for sanctuary cities. The survey found this line of attack unconvincing. Respondents were shown one such video ad and asked how convincing they found it on a scale of 0 to 10. 53% rated it a 0, 1, or 2, while only 30% rated it 8, 9, or 10. And those who did fnd it very convincing were overwhelmingly already planning to vote for Republican John James. ○ Dwindling support for Trump among suburban voters, particularly women, started early despite his attempts to scare the suburban electorate with attacks on refugees and immigrants. The trend continued, increasing Joe Biden’s margin of victory. Key suburbs in Michigan, especially surrounding Detroit, came in strong for the vice

5 president and Senator Gary Peters - both of whom were consistently attacked on “amnesty” and “sanctuary cities”. According to the Hub’s post-election survey conducted by Global Strategy Group, Biden won 68% of urban voters to 31% for Trump and 54% of suburban voters to 44% for Trump. For white female college graduates, the Democratic advantage grew from 6% in 2016 to 20% in 2020.

Today, the trends of 2020 stand true and can be improved upon to efectively win in 2022 in states and districts where the margin of victory is close at hand, such as North Carolina and Florida. Democrats must go on ofense before Republicans, once again, weaponize immigration to defne Democrats, misinform and distract voters from their victories on other issues, and pick of key voters who ultimately support the Democratic vision on immigration. Socializing and saturating President Biden and Democrats’ immigration solutions is a frst and evergreen step; passing the Senate leadership’s budget reconciliation plan that would, once and for all, create a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants must be the immediate next step this year.

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