Carmarthenshire Rural Needs Study 2019

Carmarthenshire County Council

Final Report November 2019

Main Contact: Dr Michael Bullock Email: [email protected] Telephone: 0800 612 9133 Website: www.arc4.co.uk

© 2019 arc4 Limited (Company No. 06205180)

Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 2

Table of Contents Introduction ...... 6 Aim ...... 6 Geography ...... 6 Study method ...... 6 Data weighting and grossing ...... 6 Report structure ...... 7 Understanding housing market dynamics and drivers ...... 8 Introduction ...... 8 House price trends ...... 8 The relative affordability of housing ...... 13 The Relative Affordability of Housing Tenure Options ...... 13 Household migration ...... 17 Travel to work ...... 19 Concluding comments and key findings ...... 24 Household and housing stock characteristics ...... 26 Introduction ...... 26 Estimates of current homes in terms of type, size and tenure ...... 26 Tenure ...... 30 Concluding comments and key findings ...... 36 Affordable housing need ...... 37 Introduction ...... 37 Affordable Housing Needs Assessment ...... 37 Households with additional needs ...... 40 Concluding remarks and key findings ...... 41 Market and Intermediate housing requirements ...... 42 Concluding remarks and key findings ...... 45 Further information from the Household Survey ...... 46 Public priorities for additional housing ...... 46 Farming households ...... 47 Methodology ...... 47 Summary and Conclusion ...... 48 Introduction ...... 48 Housing market dynamics and drivers ...... 48 Conclusions ...... 51 Appendix A: Relative affordability by rural ward ...... 53

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 3

Technical Appendix B: Housing need calculations ...... 54 Summary of contents ...... 54 Introduction ...... 55 Stage 1: C: Current need ...... 56 Stage 2: A: Available stock to offset need ...... 59 Stage 3: N: Newly arising need ...... 60 Stage 4: S: Supply of affordable units ...... 61 Net shortfall or surplus ...... 61 Outputs at Rural Area level ...... 62

List of Maps Map 2.1 Median house prices 2018 by ward ...... 11 Map 2.2 Median rents 2018 by ward ...... 12

List of Tables Table 2.1 Comparative median house price change 2007-2018 with Wales ...... 10 Table 2.2 Relative affordability ratios of lower quartile (LQ) prices ...... 13 Table 2.3 Relative affordability of median prices ...... 13 Table 2.4 Housing costs as at 2018 for Carmarthenshire as a whole ...... 14 Table 2.5 Cost of alternative tenure options, Income required (2018) ...... 14 Table 2.6 Projected population change 2018 to 2033 ...... 22 Table 3.1 Number of homes in rural wards ...... 26 Table 3.2 Dwelling type (%) ...... 27 Table 3.3 Dwelling type (%) by rural sub-area wards ...... 28 Table 3.4 Profile of homes by number of bedrooms (Carmarthenshire) (%) ...... 28 Table 3.5 Profile of homes by number of bedrooms (%) by rural wards ...... 29 Table 3.6 Tenure Profile ...... 30 Table 3.7 Lower Quartile and median price and income required to service a mortgage, Carmarthenshire ...... 31 Table 3.8 Comparative median rental price 2010-2018 ...... 32 Table 3.9 Comparative lower quartile rental price 2010-2017 ...... 32 Table 3.10 Rural area and County-wide household profiles compared by tenure ...... 34 Table 4.1 Current Housing Need Across the Carmarthenshire Rural Area ...... 38 Table 4.2 Needs Assessment Summary for Carmarthenshire’s Rural Area ...... 39 Table 4.3 Long-term health problem or disability ...... 40

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 4

Table 4.4 Comments associated with illness/disability and households by tenure, Carmarthenshire Rural Area ...... 41 Table 4.5 Wheelchair Users ...... 41 Table 5.1 Profile of current dwelling type/size and tenure mix (%) ...... 42 Table 5.2 Profile of dwelling type/size and tenure mix demand from existing households expecting to move home ...... 43 Table 5.3 Demand for intermediate housing dwelling types ...... 44 Table 6.1 Responses to consultation questions – household circumstances ...... 46 Table 6.2 Responses to consultation questions – dwelling types ...... 47 Table 6.3 Location preferences of households intending to move home ...... 47 Table B1 Summary of current housing need across Carmarthenshire Rural Area ...... 56 Table B2 Lower quartile market prices 2018 across Carmarthenshire Rural Area ...... 57 Table B3 Lower quartile private rents 2018 across Carmarthenshire Rural Area ...... 58 Table B4 Rural area summary of net affordable need using unweighted data ...... 62 Table B5A Rural area summary of net affordable need using unweighted data by ward 63 Table B5B Rural area summary of net affordable need using unweighted data by ward 64 Table B6A Rural area summary of net affordable need using weighted data by ward .... 65 Table B6B Rural area summary of net affordable need using weighted data by ward – cont’d………...... 66

List of Figures Figure 2.1 Median house price trends 2000 to 2018: Carmarthenshire and Wales ...... 9 Figure 2.2 Affordability by tenure ...... 16 Figure 2.3 Migration flows to and from Carmarthenshire ...... 18 Figure 2.4 Travel to work flows to and from Carmarthenshire ...... 20 Figure 2.5 Rural area age profile (2017) ...... 21 Figure 2.6 Projected population change 2018-2033 ...... 22 Figure 2.7 Projected change in household numbers by household type ...... 23 Figure 3.1 Rural area and County household profiles compared ...... 35

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 5

Please note that in this report some of the tables include rounded figures. This can result in some column or row totals not adding up to 100 or to the anticipated row or column ‘total’ due to the use of rounded decimal figures. We include this description here as it covers all tables and associated textual commentary included. If tables or figures are to be used in- house then we recommend the addition of a similarly worded statement being included as a note to each table used.

This report takes into account the particular instructions and requirements of our client. It is not intended for and should not be relied upon by any third party and no responsibility is undertaken to any third party. arc4 Limited accepts no responsibility or liability for, and makes no representation or warranty with respect to, the accuracy or completeness of any third party information (including data) that is contained in this document.

Registered Address: arc4, 41 Clarendon Road, Sale, Manchester, M33 2DY Email: [email protected] Web: www.arc4.co.uk arc4 Limited Registered in England & Wales 6205180 VAT Registration No: 909 9814 77 Managing Directors: Helen Brzozowski and Michael Bullock

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 6

Introduction Aim This is a bespoke study informing the delivery of new affordable homes of the right type, size and tenure, in the right places, to meet identified need within rural Carmarthenshire.

Geography Map 3.1 shows the 22 rural wards that form the study area and are the subject of this report. There are 24 rural wards in Carmarthenshire. Two wards, Cynwyl Gaeo and Trelech were the subject of pilot studies in 2017.

Study method A multi-method approach was adopted, which comprises: • a review of relevant secondary data including the 2011 Census, house price trends, lettings data and other data published by the County Council and the Welsh Government; • consultation with participating ward and community council representatives; • a bespoke household survey involving a 100% sample of all households in the study area; and • outputs produced at study area and ward.

Data weighting and grossing In order to proceed with data analysis, it is critical that survey data is weighted to take into account response and non-response bias and grossed up to reflect the total number of households in 2018. Weighting for each survey area was based on: • Tenure (the proportion of affordable (social rented and intermediate tenure) and open market homes based on 2011 Census data); • Age of household reference person based on the proportions of household reference people aged under 65 and 65 or over living in affordable and open market provision derived from the 2011 Census; and • Council Tax occupied homes based on the number of occupied homes in 2018 and used as a grossing factor in the weighting to ensure that there is a suitable uplift on the Census 2011 data. Ultimately, the survey element of the assessment is sufficiently statistically robust to undertake detailed analysis and underpin core outputs for the study area as a whole. However, analysis is also presented in appendix B at rural ward, weighted and unweighted.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 7

The survey findings are enhanced and corroborated through analysis of secondary data.

Report structure This report is structured as follows: • understanding housing market dynamics and drivers; • a review of the characteristics of the rural dwelling stock; • affordable housing need • market and intermediate requirements • further information from the household survey The report includes a substantial technical appendix, which provides detailed material that underpins the core outputs of study: • Housing need calculations outputs at rural ward level (Appendix B)

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 8

Understanding housing market dynamics and drivers Introduction The purpose of this chapter is to review a wide range of evidence such that a picture of the dynamics of the rural housing market emerges. This chapter considers house price trends, relative affordability, household migration, travel-to-work patterns, population projections and dwelling completions data for the area. The data also considers the key evidence needed to distinguish between the need for market and affordable housing. Whilst this chapter mostly uses average price data, we have collected a significant amount of data at ward and community level which appears in the appendix.

House price trends Figure 2.1 (overleaf) shows how median house prices in Carmarthenshire have changed over the period 2000 to 2018, based on full-year Land Registry price paid data. This is compared with Wales as a whole. The pattern of median house price change has been consistently similar to that of Wales albeit with Carmarthenshire prices being consistently lower. The pattern of change is over the ten years 2007 to 2018, has been a shallow fall and rise. The pattern for Wales has been a steady rise since 2011 whereas in Carmarthenshire the rise was seen two years later in 2013. Since 2013, the gap in house price between Carmarthenshire and Wales has widened; local increases have not kept pace with the national rise.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 9

Figure 2.1 Median house price trends 2000 to 2018: Carmarthenshire and Wales

Source: Data produced by Land Registry © Crown copyright and database right 2019. This data is licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 10

For Carmarthenshire overall, median prices increased from £44,950 in the year 2000 to £135,000 by 2007. Over the ten years from 2007 to 2017 prices fluctuated and reached the 2007 price again, £135,000 in 2018. Table 2.1 sets out comparative median house prices and house price change over this period for Carmarthenshire and Wales. Carmarthenshire has experienced no change compared to a 10.7% increase for Wales as a whole.

Table 2.1 Comparative median house price change 2007-2018 with Wales Median price by year (£) % change Location 2007 2018 2007-2018 Carmarthenshire £135,000 £135,000 0.0% Wales £140,000 £152,500 +8.9% Source: Data produced by Land Registry © Crown copyright and database right 2019. This data is licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0

Map 2.1 shows the distribution of median house prices during 2018 within the rural ward areas of interest in Carmarthenshire. This indicates relatively high prices paid in the rural areas, particularly in the middle part of the County. Ten of the 22 wards had a median sale price of £180,000 or more. Map 2.2 show the distribution of median rents during 2018. In the rural areas of interest, median rates are mostly distributed amongst the top three categories; £495 to £724 per calendar month. However, we should caution that this evidence is based on a small number of transactions.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 11

Map 2.1 Median house prices 2018 by ward

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 12

Map 2.2 Median rents 2018 by ward

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 13

The relative affordability of housing The relative affordability of homes in Carmarthenshire is compared to Wales in Tables 2.2 (lower quartile prices) and 2.3 (median prices). These tables are produced by the MHCLG, based on a ratio of earnings to house prices using Land Registry price paid and ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings data. Carmarthenshire is more affordable than Wales as a whole, with a lower quartile house price to workplace income ratio in 2018 of 5.02, compared to 5.69 for Wales (Table 3.2). Comparing lower quartile house prices with earnings over the past three years, Carmarthenshire ratios have consistently been lower than those of Wales as a whole. Note that under residence-based earnings data, the affordability ratio is almost identical for Carmarthenshire, indicating that properties are neither more nor less affordable for the two groups.

Table 2.2 Relative affordability ratios of lower quartile (LQ) prices Workplace-based Resident-based Area 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 Carmarthenshire 5.19 5.01 5.02 5.20 5.00 5.04 Wales 5.67 5.70 5.69 5.65 5.67 5.63 Sources: ONS Ratio of house price to workplace-based and residence-based earnings

Similarly, in terms of relative affordability based on median prices, Carmarthenshire is consistently more affordable compared to Wales as a whole, with a median workplace income to house price ratio in 2018 of 5.33 and a national ratio of 5.88, as illustrated in Table 2.3. Note that under residence-based data, the affordability ratio is lower, indicating that housing is more affordable to households that live and work in the area.

Table 2.3 Relative affordability of median prices Workplace-based Resident-based Area 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 Carmarthenshire 5.75 5.12 5.33 5.50 5.07 5.19 Wales 5.82 5.76 5.88 5.75 5.69 5.73 Sources: ONS Ratio of house price to workplace-based and residence-based earnings

The Relative Affordability of Housing Tenure Options The relative cost of housing options across Carmarthenshire is explored in Tables 2.4 to 2.6. This includes affordable and market sale and rent options, intermediate tenure and low-cost options, including shared ownership. The social rent for Carmarthenshire of £377pcm is taken from Stats Wales social housing stock and rental statistics and based on the average weekly rental cost. The

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 14

income required for social rent is based on a calculation of the monthly rental over the year. This analysis indicates that for open market housing in Carmarthenshire the minimum income required is £21,648 to rent lower quartile or entry-level housing, or £24,943 for buying at lower quartile or entry-level house prices. This is based upon an average house price across Carmarthenshire and a 10% deposit – 90% loan to value (LTV). These lower quartile prices are the main benchmark used in the analysis reflecting the market entry point for lower income and newly forming households. Median prices will reflect larger and better-quality housing but affordability of these will vary on a household by household basis depending upon factors such as equity accrued in their existing housing, number of dependent children etc. Further, costs vary across Carmarthenshire’s rural wards and much of the rural area can be shown to have higher average prices than Carmarthenshire as a whole. Map 2.1 shows that many rural wards have average median prices that are higher than in Carmarthenshire as a whole. The relative cost and income required is presented by the 22 rural wards in Appendix A.

Table 2.4 Housing costs as at 2018 for Carmarthenshire as a whole Tenure option Carmarthenshire Social rent £377p.m. Affordable rent (80% of private median rent) £398p.m. Market rent – lower quartile £451p.m. Market rent – median £498p.m. Market rent – upper quartile £594p.m. Market Sale – lower quartile £97,000 Market Sale – median £135,000 Market Sale – average £164,717 Source: Data produced by Land Registry © Crown copyright 2019, Zoopla 2019, HCA

Table 2.5 Cost of alternative tenure options, Income required (2018) Tenure option Carmarthenshire Social rent £18,096 Affordable rent (80% of private median rent) £19,123 Market Rent – lower quartile £21,648 Market Rent – median £23,904 Market Rent – upper quartile £28,512 Market sale – lower quartile £24,943 Market sale – median £34,714 Market sale – average £42,356 Source: Data produced by Land Registry © Crown copyright 2019, Zoopla 2019, HCA

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 15

Figure 2.2 summarises in graphical form the relative affordability of alternative tenures setting out the annual gross household income and deposit required for different options set against prevailing lower quartile and median earnings. This shows that people on lower quartile earnings cannot afford the range of tenure options according to these parameters. People on median earnings have access to a greater range of options including social and market rent (excluding upper quartile). Market sales at the lower quartile, £24,943 are just at the threshold of median incomes in Carmarthenshire (£25,000). Sales above lower quartile prices are unaffordable.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 16

Figure 2.2 Affordability by tenure £50,000

£40,000

£30,000

£20,000

Deposit Income Required £10,000 LQ income Median income

£0

-£10,000

-£20,000 Social Rent Affordable Rent Market Rent - Market Rent - Market Rent - Market Sale - Market Sale - Market Sale - (80% of median Lower Quartile Median Upper Quartile Lower Quartile Median Average private rent) (assumes 10% (assumes 10% (assumes 10% deposit) deposit) deposit) Source: Data produced by Land Registry © Crown copyright 2019, Zoopla 2019, CLG, HCA, CAMEO 2019 Note: The deposit requirements are shown on the figure as a negative number

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 17

Household migration The 2011 Census enables an analysis of migration patterns showing the extent to which people have re-located in and out of the County. Overall, the 2011 Census reported a net inflow of 403 people in the year before the Census. Figure 2.3 shows that the most significant outflow of people is from Carmarthenshire to elsewhere in the UK (outside Wales) followed by Swansea then Cardiff. Inflows were strongest from elsewhere in the UK, Swansea then Ceredigion. The 2018 household survey provided information on the characteristics of households in rural Carmarthenshire that have moved home in the preceding 5 years: • 38.8% moved within the rural area, 16.4% moved from outside the rural area and 44.8% moved from outside Carmarthenshire. • 56.2% moved to a house with three or more bedrooms, 14.7% to a one or two- bedroom house and 13.4% to a three or more-bedroom bungalow. • almost a quarter of households who had moved (24.7%) were couples under the age of 65 with no children. 19.4% were families with dependent children. The main reason for moving was to live in a nicer area (38.7%). This was a more dominant reason for those who had moved from outside of the Welsh local authority areas compared to those who had moved within (32.9% compared to 11.1%). Other main reasons were wanting a nicer house (23.7%), to be closer to family/friends (23%) and wanting a garage (22.2%). The category ‘other reasons’ was also selected by 37.9% of households.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 18

Figure 2.3 Migration flows to and from Carmarthenshire

Source: 2011 Census

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 19

Travel to work The 2011 Census provides an analysis of travel to work patterns and the extent to which residents in Carmarthenshire travel to other areas together with details of how many people commute into the area. The analysis focuses on the nine travel to work (TTW) areas shown in figure 3.4 below. The 2011 Census identified the following: • 45,024 people live and work in Carmarthenshire; • 15,236 people live in Carmarthenshire and work in one of the other TTW areas (they commute out of the County for work) • 10,140 people work in Carmarthenshire and live in one of the other TTW areas (they commute into the County for work. Figure 2.4 summarises the main commuting flows to/from Carmarthenshire. The most significant flow is to Cardiff, followed by Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion and Neath Port Talbot.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 20

Figure 2.4 Travel to work flows to and from Carmarthenshire

Source: 2011 Census

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 21

Population Characteristics and Projections ONS 2017 mid-year population estimates have been used to provide a baseline of the population within the rural area by ward and for the rural area as a whole.

Figure 2.5 Rural area age profile (2017)

Age Profile

Whitland St. Ishmael St. Clears Manordeilo and Salem Llanybydder Llansteffan Llangyndeyrn Llangunnor Llangeler Llangadog Llanfihangel-ar-Arth Llanfihangel Aberbythych Llanegwad Llandovery Llandeilo Llanddarog Llanboidy Laugharne Township Cynwyl Elfed Cilycwm Cenarth Abergwili

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0

0-14 15-29 30-44 45-64 65+

Source: ONS 2017 mid-year population projections

The highest proportion of older people was found in the wards of Llangunnor and St. Ishmael. Overall in the rural area, the highest proportion of people were in the 45-64 age range (30.3%), followed by those aged over 65 (27.0%). The balance between the older and younger age groups was around 60%/40% (older 45+/younger under 45). The following key points are derived from the population projections for Carmarthenshire overall: • An increasing population, with ONS 2014-based population projections (Table 2.6) indicating an increase of 1.7% from 186,116 in 2018 to 189,318 by 2033; • Over the period 2018 to 2033, ONS 2014-based population projections estimate that the number of residents aged under 65 will decrease by 6.4% from 141,659 in

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 22

2018 to 132,549 in 2033. The number aged 65 or more will increase by 27.7% from 44,457 in 2018 to 56,769 in 2033.

Table 2.6 Projected population change 2018 to 2033 Change % change Age Group 2018 2033 2018-2033 2018-33 0-19 40,517 39,047 -1,470 -3.6 20-39 40,136 38,184 -1,952 -4.9 40-54 35,002 32,240 -2,762 -7.9 55-64 26,004 23,078 -2,926 -11.3 65-74 24,196 26,475 2,279 9.4 75+ 20,261 30,294 10,033 49.5 Total 186,116 189,318 3,202 1.7

Of the total population All Older 65+ 44,457 56,769 12,312 All Older 75+ 20,261 30,294 10,033 All Older 85+ 5,903 10,878 4,975 Source: 2014-based population projections (StatsWales)

Figure 2.6 Projected population change 2018-2033

45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0-19 20-39 40-54 55-64 65-74 75+ 2018 40,517 40,136 35,002 26,004 24,196 20,261 2033 39,047 38,184 32,240 23,078 26,475 30,294

Source: 2014-based population projections (StatsWales)

2014-based household projections (StatsWales) suggest that the total number of households in Carmarthenshire is expected to increase by 6,780 by 2033, from 82,751 in 2018 to 89,531, an increase of 8.7%; The 2014-based household projections (StatsWales) indicate that the following range of household groups currently live in Carmarthenshire: one-person household

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 23

(30.6%), couple only household (32.9%), households with 1 or 2-children (25.9%), households with 3-children (0.9%), other multi-person household (9.7%). The number of households in each group is projected to change by 2033 (figure2.7). The main increase is within the one-person household group (+14.3% increase), followed by the couple only household group (+7.0% increase). The number of households with children also increase but to a lesser degree.

Figure 2.7 Projected change in household numbers by household type

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0 One Person Couple only Household with 1 Household with 3 Household with 3 or 2 children children or more people and no children

Source: 2014-based household projections (StatsWales)

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 24

Concluding comments and key findings This chapter has been considered the general housing market context of Carmarthenshire and where possible, the rural areas of interest. By reviewing house prices, relative affordability, migration, travel to work patterns, a picture of the market dynamics of the County emerges. It is particularly noteworthy that: Migration and travel to work • the rural area has a low level of migration from the rest of the County. Nearly half of all market vacancies are filled by households that previously lived outside the County; a high proportion of which came from elsewhere in the UK; • most residents travel to work within Carmarthenshire, the largest outflows are to Swansea and Cardiff; Population and households • in 2017 the highest proportion of people living in the rural area were in the 45-64 age range closely followed by those aged over 65. These groups made up 57% of the population; • the age distribution of the population differs considerably across the rural wards; • the highest proportion of older people (aged 65 and over) was found in the wards of Llangunnor (32.3%) and St. Ishmael (31.3%). The largest proportion of younger people (aged 15-44) lived in St Clears ward ((33%), (older persons 23%)) and Whitland ((32%), (older persons 23%)) • the population of Carmarthenshire as a whole is projected to increase slightly between 2018 and 2033 however, this masks a structural change in the population; • the number of residents aged under 65 will decrease by 6.4% from 141,659 in 2018 to 132,549 in 2033. The number aged 65 or more will increase by 27.7% from 44,457 in 2018 to 56,769 in 2033; • the total number of households in Carmarthenshire is expected to increase by 6,780 by 2033, from 82,751 in 2018 to 89,531, an increase of 8.7%; • the main increase is within the one-person household group (+14.3% increase), followed by the couple only household group (+7.0% increase). The number of households with children also increase but to a lesser degree.

House prices and affordability • on average, Carmarthenshire as a whole has lower house prices than the Welsh average; • even at these lower prices some housing is not affordable to local households; • most rural wards have higher average prices than Carmarthenshire as a whole;

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 25

• rural ward areas vary significantly in price. • A key factor in this is the degree to which larger detached homes are present. • This is explored in the next chapter.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 26

Household and housing stock characteristics Introduction The purpose of this chapter is to explore the characteristics of Carmarthenshire’s housing stock focusing on the current stock profile, condition and tenure characteristics. This includes a detailed analysis of the major tenures: owner occupation, the private rented sector and affordable accommodation.

Estimates of current homes in terms of type, size and tenure Council tax data indicates that there are 85,530 homes in Carmarthenshire with 25,020 being in the rural wards. Baseline dwelling statistics for each of the rural wards are set out in Table 3.1.

Table 3.1 Number of homes in rural wards Ward Homes 2018 Abergwili 1,010 Cenarth 1,020 Cilycwm 650 Cynwyl Elfed 1,280 Laugharne Township 1,320 Llanboidy 900 Llanddarog 920 Llandeilo 1,500 Llandovery 1,240 Llanegwad 1,100 Llanfihangel Aberbythych 750 Llanfihangel-ar-Arth 1,290 Llangadog 900 Llangeler 1,550 Llangunnor 1,140 Llangyndeyrn 1,620 Llansteffan 940 Llanybydder 1,270 Manordeilo and Salem 940 St. Clears 1,390 St. Ishmael 1,260 Whitland 1,030 Total in rural sub-area 25,020 Source: 2018 VOA

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 27

Dwelling type and number of bedrooms The following tables show the breakdown of dwelling stock by type and number of bedrooms for Carmarthenshire and the 22 rural wards based on 2018 Valuation Office Agency data. Table 3.2 shows that for Carmarthenshire as a whole, over half of homes are detached (25.6%) or semi-detached (27.5%) houses.

Table 3.2 Dwelling type (%) Semi- Detached Detached Terraced House House House Flat Bungalow Base Carmarthenshire 25.6 27.8 21.3 8.1 17.3 85,530 Source: 2018 VOA

Table 3.3 shows that across the rural wards detached houses account for 38.7% of all homes which is markedly higher than the Carmarthenshire average. Around a third of wards have over 50% detached houses; the highest proportion is Llanboidy (56.7%). Semi-detached and terraced houses account for around 10% less than the Carmarthenshire proportions, 17.5% and 11.6% respectively. The proportion of bungalows is higher in the rural wards than Carmarthenshire as a whole; the proportion is highest in Llanddarog (38%) and lowest in Llandeilo (12.7%). In the majority of wards, bungalows account for over a quarter of stock.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 28

Table 3.3 Dwelling type (%) by rural sub-area wards Semi- Detached Detached Terraced Ward House House House Flat Bungalow Base Abergwili 49.5 6.9 7.9 3.0 32.7 1,010 Cenarth 33.3 12.7 11.8 13.7 28.4 1,020 Cilycwm 55.4 12.3 3.1 4.6 24.6 650 Cynwyl Elfed 51.6 8.6 6.3 0.8 32.8 1,280 Laugharne Township 31.8 17.4 15.2 7.6 28.0 1,320 Llanboidy 56.7 7.8 4.4 2.2 28.9 900 Llanddarog 41.3 15.2 3.3 2.2 38.0 920 Llandeilo 28.0 20.7 26.0 12.7 12.7 1,500 Llandovery 25.0 25.8 25.8 7.3 16.1 1,240 Llanegwad 55.5 12.7 4.5 3.6 23.6 1,100 Llanfihangel 53.3 18.7 5.3 1.3 21.3 750 Aberbythych Llanfihangel-ar-Arth 36.4 22.5 6.2 5.4 29.5 1,290 Llangadog 54.4 13.3 10.0 3.3 18.9 900 Llangeler 32.3 20.0 8.4 1.9 37.4 1,550 Llangunnor 32.5 9.6 16.7 3.5 37.7 1,140 Llangyndeyrn 30.9 30.2 9.9 1.2 27.8 1,620 Llansteffan 40.4 13.8 10.6 3.2 31.9 940 Llanybydder 33.9 26.0 11.0 6.3 22.8 1,270 Manordeilo and Salem 54.3 13.8 4.3 2.1 25.5 940 St. Clears 28.8 21.6 17.3 6.5 25.9 1,390 St. Ishmael 33.3 17.5 11.1 1.6 36.5 1,260 Whitland 30.1 20.4 22.3 12.6 14.6 1,030 Total in rural sub-area 38.7 17.5 11.6 5.0 27.2 25,020 Source: VOA 2018

Size (number of bedrooms) Tables 3.4 and 3.5 illustrate the breakdown of the stock by number of bedrooms for Carmarthenshire and the rural wards. For Carmarthenshire as whole over half of homes have three-bedrooms (53.5%) and almost a quarter have two-bedrooms (23.6%).

Table 3.4 Profile of homes by number of bedrooms (Carmarthenshire) (%)

1-bedroom 2-bedroom 3-bedroom 4-bedroom Base Carmarthenshire 5.7 23.6 53.5 17.2 85,470 Source: VOA 2018

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 29

Table 3.5 shows that across the rural wards, 4-bedroom homes account for 23.2% of all homes which is higher than the Carmarthenshire average. Conversely, 1-bedroom homes account for 3.4% of all stock which is lower than the area average. The majority of wards have over 20% 4-bedroom homes; the highest proportion is Manordeilo and Salem (33.0%). Two and three-bedroom homes in the rural sub areas are at similar proportions to Carmarthenshire as a whole. The proportion of one-bedroom homes is lower in the rural wards than Carmarthenshire as a whole; in Llangyndeyrn there are none, whereas in Llanybydder the proportion is 7.1%.

Table 3.5 Profile of homes by number of bedrooms (%) by rural wards Area 1-bedroom 2-bedroom 3-bedroom 4-bedroom Base Abergwili 2.0 18.8 47.5 31.7 1,010 Cenarth 4.9 30.4 46.1 18.6 1,020 Cilycwm 1.5 24.6 46.2 27.7 650 Cynwyl Elfed 1.6 23.3 48.8 26.4 1,280 Laugharne Township 5.3 24.4 48.1 22.1 1,310 Llanboidy 2.2 30.0 38.9 28.9 900 Llanddarog 2.2 23.9 47.8 26.1 920 Llandeilo 5.3 26.0 47.3 21.3 1,500 Llandovery 3.3 24.4 51.2 21.1 1,230 Llanegwad 3.6 25.2 45.0 26.1 1,110 Llanfihangel Aberbythych 1.3 19.7 50.0 28.9 760 Llanfihangel-ar-Arth 3.8 31.5 46.9 17.7 1,300 Llangadog 3.4 20.2 48.3 28.1 890 Llangeler 3.9 29.0 50.3 16.8 1,550 Llangunnor 7.0 18.4 50.9 23.7 1,140 Llangyndeyrn 0.0 28.0 57.1 14.9 1,610 Llansteffan 2.1 22.1 48.4 27.4 950 Llanybydder 7.1 27.6 48.0 17.3 1,270 Manordeilo and Salem 2.1 20.2 44.7 33.0 940 St. Clears 2.9 24.5 49.6 23.0 1,390 St. Ishmael 0.8 23.8 49.2 26.2 1,260 Whitland 5.8 22.3 52.4 19.4 1,030 Total in rural wards 3.4 24.8 48.7 23.2 25,020 Source: VOA 2018

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 30

Tenure Table 3.6 summarises the tenure profile which is based on the 2011 Census. Overall, 76.2% of households were owner-occupied in the Carmarthenshire rural wards compared to 71.5% for the County as a whole. 13.2% were private rented (very similar to the local proportion) and 10.6% were affordable (lower than the local proportion of 15.0%).

Table 3.6 Tenure Profile Geography Tenure Rural wards Carmarthenshire Wales Owner Occupied 76.2% 71.5% 67.4% Private rented 13.2% 13.5% 15.7% Affordable 10.6% 15.0% 16.8% Base 23,279 78,829 1,302,676 Source: Census 2011

The owner-occupier tenure Around, 76.2% of households (17,731) across the rural area were owner occupiers. 48% of all households (around 11,200) owned their home outright and 28% of all households (around 6,600) had a mortgage or loan. The significance of homes owned outright is that these are likely to be occupied by older people. The results from the 2018 household survey show that 74.9% of owner-occupied households lived in in houses of which 52.2% were detached, 16.4% were semi- detached and 6.3% were terraced. 22.6% were bungalows, 0.5% were flats and 2.1% other property types e.g. caravans/park homes. In terms of number of bedrooms, again from the 2018 household survey, 1.1% of households had one-bedroom, 14.6% had two-bedrooms, 47.5% had three-bedrooms and 36.7% had four or more bedrooms. Over the period 2000 to 2018, Land Registry data reveals that lower quartile house prices in Carmarthenshire (as a whole) increased from £32,000 to £97,000 and median prices increased from £44,950 to £135,000. Change in price over time is detailed in Table 3.7. It is noteworthy that in the year 2000, a household income of £8,229 was required to service a mortgage for a lower quartile priced home assuming a 10% deposit. By 2018 this had increased to £24,943. By comparison, an income of £11,559 was required for a median priced home in 2000 compared with £34,714 in 2018.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 31

Table 3.7 Lower Quartile and median price and income required to service a mortgage, Carmarthenshire

Year House Price (£) Income required* Lower Quartile Median Lower Quartile Median 2000 £32,000 £44,950 £8,229 £11,559 2001 £34,625 £49,000 £8,904 £12,600 2002 £38,000 £55,000 £9,771 £14,143 2003 £52,000 £73,517 £13,371 £18,904 2004 £74,000 £96,000 £19,029 £24,686 2005 £86,000 £119,995 £22,114 £30,856 2006 £93,000 £124,500 £23,914 £32,014 2007 £105,000 £135,000 £27,000 £34,714 2008 £100,000 £132,000 £25,714 £33,943 2009 £90,000 £125,000 £23,143 £32,143 2010 £90,000 £125,000 £23,143 £32,143 2011 £87,000 £124,995 £22,371 £32,142 2012 £85,000 £125,000 £21,857 £32,143 2013 £85,000 £120,000 £21,857 £30,857 2014 £87,500 £124,995 £22,500 £32,142 2015 £90,000 £129,500 £23,143 £33,300 2016 £90,000 £130,000 £23,143 £33,429 2017 £95,000 £134,995 £24,429 £34,713 2018 £97,000 £135,000 £24,943 £34,714

Source: Data produced by Land Registry © Crown copyright 2019. This data is licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0 *Assuming a 3.5x income multiple and a 10% deposit is available

The private rented tenure According to the 2011 Census the private rented sector accommodated around 13.2% (2,612) of households across the Carmarthenshire rural area compared to 13.5% in the County as a whole. Results from the 2018 household survey reveal that: • 69.2% of private rented households were in houses (31.6% detached, 23.7% semi- detached and 13.9% terraced), 15.2% were bungalows, 12.9% were flats and 2.6% were other property types; and • 10.0% of households in private rented homes had one-bedroom, 33.9% had two- bedrooms, 41.0% had three-bedrooms and 15.1% had four or more-bedrooms. In terms of the cost of renting, Tables 3.8 and 3.9 set out the comparative median and lower quartile rents for the rural wards. The data indicates that in 2017, the median (£494 pcm) and lower quartile (£425) rents were lower than the national levels.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 32

Comparing the rental price in 2018 with that in 2010 indicates that there has been an inflation increase of around 2.2% in lower quartile and 4.7% in median rental prices in the rural wards. This is a lower rate of change than the national level.

Table 3.8 Comparative median rental price 2010-2018 Median price by year (£) % change Location 2010 2018 2010-2018 Carmarthenshire Rural 472 494 4.7% Wales 546 576 5.5% Source: © 2018 Zoopla Limited. All rights reserved

Table 3.9 Comparative lower quartile rental price 2010-2017 Lower quartile price by year (£) % change Location 2010 2018 2010-2018 Carmarthenshire 416 425 2.2% Wales 446 477 7.0% Source: © 2018 Zoopla Limited. All rights reserved

The Local Housing Allowance rates (weekly and per calendar month (pcm) for the Carmarthen Broad Rental Market Area (BRMA)1 are stated below: • Shared accommodation rate - £50.00 per week (£217pcm) • 1-bedroom rate - £72.98 per week (£316pcm); • 2-bedroom rate - £92.05 (£399 pcm); • 3-bedroom rate - £103.56 per week (£449 pcm); and • 4-bedroom rate - £126.58 per week (548.51pcm).

Affordable tenures According to the 2011 Census the affordable sector accommodated around 10.6% (2,472) of households across the Carmarthenshire rural areas (10.3% social rented and 0.3% intermediate tenure). This compares to 15.0% in Carmarthenshire as a whole. Results from the 2018 household survey reveal that:-

1 A Broad Rental Market Area is an area ‘within which a person could reasonably be expected to live having regard to facilities and services for purposes of health, education, recreation, personal banking and shopping, taking account of the distance of travel, by public and private transport and from those facilities and services’. A BRMA must contain ‘residential premises for a variety of types, including such premises held on a variety of tenures’ PLUS ‘sufficient privately rented residential premises, to ensure that, in the rent officer’s opinion, the LHA for the area is representative of the rents that a landlord might reasonably be expected to obtain in that area’ Source: VOA BRMA statistics

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 33

• 41% of households in affordable homes lived in houses (6.6% detached, 27.9% semi-detached and 9.3% terraced), 44.4% were bungalows and 9.7% were flats; • 10.6% of households in affordable homes had one-bedroom, 57.6% had two- bedrooms, 28.8% had three bedrooms and 3.0% have four or more-bedrooms.

Household profile Table 3.10 shows how the census 2011 standard household types are distributed across the tenures. From the table we can see the relationship between household types and tenures and the extent to which the distribution changes according to whether the household lives in a rural setting compared to the whole of the County. It is apparent that certain household types are associated with particular tenures. Outright home owners are most likely to be one person aged 65 or over; couples both aged 65 or over, couples that are married with no children, married couples and lone parents that have non dependent children. Proportions are very similar in the rural area and the County as a whole. Owners with a mortgage are most likely to be married with no children, dependant and non-dependent children. A greater proportion of married couples without dependent children live in the rural area than the County as a whole. Social renters are most likely to be single people of all ages. Rural Carmarthenshire has a lower proportion of lone parents than the County as a whole. Private renters are most likely to be single people under the age of 65 and lone parents with a lower proportion of lone parents with dependent children living in the rural area. There a larger proportion of married couples without children and older single people living in rural private rented sector housing. Figure 3.1 shows that a significantly higher proportion of the following household groups live in the rural area than the County as a whole irrespective of tenure: • married no children; and • households all aged over 65.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 34

Table 3.10 Rural area and County-wide household profiles compared by tenure

Owned with a Private rented or Owned outright Social rented All mortgage living rent free

County Rural County Rural County Rural County Rural County Rural One person aged=>65 23.5 21.0 2.1 2.6 22.1 26.9 8.4 10.0 14.8 15.0 One person aged <65 10.5 10.3 13.9 12.4 21.9 16.6 26.3 26.0 15.4 13.6 All aged 65 and over 19.8 19.9 2.0 2.8 4.5 6.2 2.5 3.1 9.8 11.4 Married no children 17.4 18.5 16.0 18.2 5.4 5.9 6.4 8.3 13.7 15.8 Married dependent children 5.8 7.1 29.5 29.2 7.1 7.3 10.1 11.1 13.8 13.9 Married all children non-dependent 8.1 7.9 8.3 8.3 2.9 3.6 1.8 2.5 6.6 6.8 Cohabiting couple no children 2.2 2.5 6.2 5.6 2.7 2.7 7.9 8.7 4.2 4.2 Cohabiting couple dependent children 0.8 0.8 5.9 5.4 6.5 6.9 7.3 6.4 4.1 3.5 Cohabiting couple all children non- 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 dependent Lone parent dependent children 1.8 1.5 6.6 5.6 17.2 15.1 17.0 14.4 7.6 5.8 Lone parent all children non-dependent 4.5 4.4 2.6 2.4 5.1 5.4 2.4 2.3 3.7 3.6 Other with dependent children 1.5 1.8 3.2 3.5 1.6 1.5 3.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 Other 3.8 4.2 3.1 3.5 2.2 1.6 6.3 4.4 3.7 3.7 Total % 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Total number 32,648 11,195 23,856 6,603 11,672 2,405 10,653 3,076 78,829 23,279 Source: Census 2011

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 35

Figure 3.1 Rural area and County household profiles compared

18.0

16.0

14.0

12.0

10.0 % 8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0 Cohabiting Married all Cohabiting Lone parent Married Cohabiting couple all Lone parent Other with One person One person All aged 65 Married no children couple all children dependent couple no children dependent dependent Other aged=>65 aged <65 and over children non- dependent non- children children non- children children dependent children dependent dependent Rural 15.0 13.6 11.4 15.8 13.9 6.8 4.2 3.5 0.3 5.8 3.6 2.3 3.7 County 14.8 15.4 9.8 13.7 13.8 6.6 4.2 4.1 0.4 7.6 3.7 2.3 3.7

Rural County

Source: Census 2011 .

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 36

Concluding comments and key findings The purpose of this chapter has been to explore the relevant characteristics of the study area in comparison to Carmarthenshire and Wales as a whole. The key findings are as follows. The rural wards that form the study area contain around 29% of Carmarthenshire’s housing stock. The profile of the housing stock differs significantly between the rural area and Carmarthenshire as a whole. The rural area has a significantly larger proportion of: • detached houses (38.7%), which in some wards represent 50% of all homes compared to a Carmarthenshire average of 25.6%; • bungalows (27.2%) which in most wards account for 25% of the dwelling stock compared to the average for Carmarthenshire as a whole (17.3%); • 4-bedroom homes (23.2%) – over 30% in 2 wards compared to the average for Carmarthenshire as a whole (17.2%); • Owner occupation (76.2%) compared to the average for the County as a whole (71.5%); The rural area has a significantly smaller proportion of affordable housing. It formed 10.6% of the rural housing stock in year 2011 compared to Carmarthenshire as a whole (16%). In 2011 the private rented sector formed roughly the same proportion of the housing stock in the rural area and Carmarthenshire as a whole (13.2 and 13.5%) respectively. It is important to recognise that these relatively small numbers will be dispersed across a large geographical area many small villages and hamlets. The average lower quartile house price was £24,943 in the year 2018. Analysis of household type by tenure and rural and County location revealed a significantly higher proportion of households that were married with no children; households all aged over 65 live in the rural area than the County as a whole irrespective of tenure. Household types less likely less likely to live in the rural area are lone parents with dependent children if in the private rented sector and younger single person social renters. It is especially noteworthy, given the aims of this project that although the largest household groups that are social renters are singles over and under age 65 and lone parents, lower proportions of single people under age 65 and lone parents with dependent children live in the rural area.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 37

Affordable housing need Introduction Affordable housing is housing provided to those whose needs are not met by the market. Affordable housing should:- • meet the needs of eligible households, including availability at low enough cost for them to afford, determined with regard to local incomes and house prices; and • include provision for the home to remain affordable for future eligible households, or if a home ceases to be affordable or stair casing to full ownership takes place, any subsidy should generally be recycled to provide replacement housing. The term ‘affordable housing’ includes social rented and intermediate housing. Intermediate housing is that where prices or rents are above those of social rented housing but below market housing prices or rents. This can include equity sharing schemes (for example Homebuy). Intermediate housing differs from low cost market housing, which the Welsh Assembly Government does not consider to be affordable housing. Intermediate housing can help existing tenants to move out of the social sector and release the dwelling for use by another household in affordable need. This chapter uses evidence from secondary data sources and the household survey to assess affordable housing requirements the Carmarthenshire rural area. The evidence presented will assist the Council and its strategic partners in making policy decisions regarding future housing development.

Affordable Housing Needs Assessment Housing needs analysis and affordable housing modelling has been prepared in accordance with Government guidance at rural Carmarthenshire and rural ward level. Modelling has used 2018 household survey and secondary data. The model has 4 key stages: 1. C: Current housing need (gross backlog) minus 2. A: Available stock to offset need plus 3. N: Newly arising need (future) minus 4. S: Supply of affordable homes (future); Equals = net shortfall (or surplus) of affordable homes each year.

The stages of the model are summarised in this chapter, however greater detail of each calculation is included in technical appendix A.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 38

Assessing affordable housing need using the 2018 household survey Current Needs In this stage the numbers in need of alternative housing and those that can afford to meet their housing needs in the open market are modelled. Information derived from the household survey is weighted data to compensate for households that did not return the questionnaire. Table 4.1 sets out housing need across the rural area based on the household survey and reasons for household need. This shows that there are 1,031 existing households in need, which represents 3.9% of all households.

Table 4.1 Current Housing Need Across the Carmarthenshire Rural Area Category Factor Total Homeless households N1 Under notice, real threat of notice or 161 or with insecure tenure lease coming to an end N2 Too expensive, and in receipt of housing benefit or in arrears due to 274 expense Mismatch of housing N3 Overcrowded according to the 126 need and homes 'bedroom standard' model N4 Too difficult to maintain 400 N5 Couples, people with children and single adults over 25 sharing a kitchen, 35 bathroom or WC with another household N6 Household containing people with mobility impairment or other special needs 254 living in unsuitable accommodation Dwelling amenities and N7/8 The dwelling fails to meet the condition requirements of the Housing, Health and Safety Rating System (HHSRS) and vulnerable households do not have the 80 resources to carry out works to meet the standards. Therefore, financial assistance may be required Social needs N9 Harassment or threats of harassment from neighbours or others living in the 16 vicinity which cannot be resolved except through a move Total no. households in need (some with one or more housing need) 1,031 Total households 26,334 % households in need 3.9% Note: A household may have more than one housing need. Source: 2018 Household Survey

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 39

The final step of Stage 1 is to apply affordability criteria to the incomes of all households in need of alternative accommodation. The analysis indicated that 551 households could afford to buy or can afford market rent. The current housing need is estimated to be 484. The complete needs assessment is summarised in Table 4.2 below. Analysis would suggest an annual shortfall of 171 affordable homes across the rural area of Carmarthenshire.

Table 4.2 Needs Assessment Summary for Carmarthenshire’s Rural Area Element and step in calculation Calculation Factor Total households >>> 26,334 C. CURRENT NEED 1. Existing households in need of alternative housing 1,031 2. plus current non-households in need 4 3. minus cases where they can afford to meet their needs in the market 551 4. = Total current housing need 1+2-3 484 A. AVAILABLE STOCK TO OFFSET NEED 5. Current occupiers of affordable housing in need 74 6. plus surplus stock 0 Over 5 64 7. plus committed supply of new affordable homes years 8. minus planned homes to be taken out of management 0 9. = total available stock to meet current need 5+6+7-8 138 10.= total current need 4-9 346 11. quota to reduce level of 5 year need to annual need 20% 12. = annualised level of current need 10x11 69 N: NEWLY ARISING NEED 13. new household formation (gross p.a.) 276 14. times proportion unable to buy in the market 87.7% 15. plus existing households falling into need 15 16. minus potential out-migrants unable to afford market housing 23 17. plus in-migrants unable to afford market housing 64 14+15- 298 18. = total newly-arising affordable need 16+17 S. SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE HOMES per year 19. net supply of social re-lets 196 20. plus supply of intermediate housing available for re-let or resale at 0 sub-market levels 21. = affordable supply 196 NET SHORTFALL OR SURPLUS 22. Overall shortfall or surplus (annual imbalance) 12+18-21 171

Technical appendix B provides a breakdown for the need in each rural ward.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 40

Households with additional needs The household survey asked specific questions about health and disability problems of household members. This section summarises information from the Census and the household survey to indicate the extent to which accessible housing may need to be provided.

Census 2011 data The Census records a baseline of broad measures of disability across the population. Table 4.3 reports that across Carmarthenshire as a whole, 8.3% of residents stated they were in bad or very bad health (and particularly associated with older age groups) and a further 16.1% were in ‘fair’ health. The majority (75.7%) were in ‘very good or good health’. The table shows that the proportion of people with bad or very bad health rises with age.

Table 4.3 Long-term health problem or disability Measure of health (%) Very good or good Bad or very bad health Age Group health (%) Fair health (%) (%) Age 0 to 15 96.7 2.5 0.8 Age 16 to 24 93.8 4.7 1.5 Age 25 to 34 90.2 7.0 2.8 Age 35 to 49 82.1 11.8 6.1 Age 50 to 64 67.2 20.6 12.2 Age 65 to 74 51.1 33.1 15.8 Age 75 to 84 35.3 42.6 22.1 Age 85 and over 23.5 48.8 27.7 All categories: Age 75.7 16.1 8.3 Total by measure of health 137,177 29,088 14,962 Source: 2011 Census Table DC3302EW

Household Survey evidence The 2018 household survey identified that in the rural area 22.2% of households (around 5,632) contained someone with an illness/disability. By tenure, 18.8% of owner occupier households, 20.5% of private renting households and 50.6% of households living in affordable accommodation. The 2018 household survey also asked questions relating to the homes occupied by people with additional needs (Table 4.4).

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 41

Table 4.4 Comments associated with illness/disability and households by tenure, Carmarthenshire Rural Area Comment Total (%) My home has been adapted to suit the needs of someone with a disability 18.4 A member of my household needs help with daily tasks such as shopping, cleaning 24.4 A member of my household needs help with personal care such as medication or 19.4 bathing A member of my household uses a wheelchair inside the home 4.2 A member of my household is unable to manage stairs and needs ground floor 15.6 facilities There are enough rooms in my household to accommodate a carer overnight when 18.0 needed Source: 2018 Household Survey

451 households contain a member who uses a wheelchair (1.7% of all households). 46 (10.2%) state that they plan to move home in the next five years. The following table states the likely accommodation these households will move to.

Table 4.5 Wheelchair Users Likely Accommodation move to? Number (%) Age restricted dwelling for older people 6 13.3 Nursing or care home 7 15.6 Adapted home for person with a disability 32 71.1 Total 45 100.0 Source: 2018 Household Survey

Concluding remarks and key findings The household survey found that across the rural area: • 1,035 existing households are currently in housing need (approximately 4% of all households); • the most frequent reasons being present accommodation too difficult to maintain and is too expensive and or someone in the household has illness or disability and is living in unsuitable housing; • of these 484 households are in affordable need; • this results in 69 households in affordable need annually; and • 298 households are estimated to form and be in affordable need every year. Taking into account estimated annual supply there is a net affordable shortage of 171 affordable homes a year. Household survey data would suggest that a significant proportion of the future affordable supply should be at accessibility or wheelchair standard.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 42

Market and Intermediate housing requirements This section provides information about market housing and intermediate housing requirements specifically within the rural area of Carmarthenshire, using data from the 2018 household survey. The first table shows the current dwelling stock profile in the rural area by market and Intermediate tenures.

Table 5.1 Profile of current dwelling type/size and tenure mix (%) Dwelling type/size Market Intermediate 1-bedroom house 1.1% 0.0% 2-bedroom house 10.5% 31.8% 3-bedroom house 32.9% 37.7% 4 or more-bedroom house 29.6% 8.7% 1-bedroom flat 1.0% 0.0% 2-bedroom flat 1.1% 0.0% 3 or more-bedroom flat 0.2% 0.0% 1 or 2-bedroom bungalow 4.9% 5.1% 3 or more-bedroom bungalow 16.6% 16.7% 1-bedroom other 0.2% 0.0% 2-bedroom other 1.1% 0.0% 3 or more-bedroom other 0.8% 0.0% TOTAL 100.00% 100.00%

Dwelling type Market Intermediate House 74.1% 75.5% Flat 2.3% 0.0% Bungalow 21.5% 21.0% Other 2.1% 3.5% TOTAL 100.00% 100.00%

Number of bedrooms Market Intermediate 1 2.5% 0.0% 2 17.4% 36.5% 3 46.6% 54.7% 4 25.0% 8.8% 5+ 8.5% 0.0% TOTAL 100.00% 100.00% Source: 2018 household survey

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 43

The largest group of homes in both the market and intermediate sectors is 3-bedroom houses. The profile of market and intermediate sectors differ significantly. There are significantly more 4-bedroom homes in the market sector and more 2-bedroom homes in the intermediate sector. Next, we examine the profile of dwelling types that existing households expect to move to within the market and intermediate sectors.

Table 5.2 Profile of dwelling type/size and tenure mix demand from existing households expecting to move home Dwelling type/size Market Intermediate 1-bedroom house 0.7% 0.0% 2-bedroom house 12.3% 0.0% 3-bedroom house 27.6% 70.0% 4 or more-bedroom house 16.8% 30.0% 1-bedroom flat 2.0% 0.0% 2-bedroom flat 2.2% 0.0% 3 or more-bedroom flat 0.1% 0.0% 1 or 2-bedroom bungalow 18.0% 0.0% 3 or more-bedroom bungalow 14.5% 0.0% 1-bedroom other 1.4% 0.0% 2-bedroom other 1.9% 0.0% 3 or more-bedroom other 2.5% 0.0% TOTAL 100.00% 100.00%

Dwelling type Market Intermediate House 56.8% 100.0% Flat 4.2% 0.0% Bungalow 32.7% 0.0% Other 6.3% 0.0% TOTAL 100.00% 100.00%

Number of bedrooms Market Intermediate 1 5.4% 0.0% 2 34.2% 23.1% 3 42.5% 53.8% 4 13.6% 23.1% 5+ 4.3% 0.0% TOTAL 100.00% 100.00% Source: 2018 household survey

Comparing tables 5.1 and 5.2, there is a clear difference in profiles. In the market sector interest is apparent across all dwelling types and sizes however the demand for 3 and 4-bedroom homes is lower and demand for bungalows is higher than the dwelling stock profile. This is consistent with an ageing population. In the intermediate sector there was little interest other than for 2 and 3-bedroom houses.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 44

The 2018 household survey sought to evaluate the demand for examples of intermediate and low-cost housing products: • shared ownership; • shared equity; • rent to buy; and • new build ‘help to buy’. Analysis reported in table 5.3 combines information from respondents who were: • Interested in any form of intermediate housing; • existing households not in owner-occupation and are in some form of housing need; and • newly forming households, and • are seeking housing in their local area.

Table 5.3 Demand for intermediate housing dwelling types

Dwelling type sought Number of households 1-bedroom house 8 2-bedroom house 64 3-bedroom house 68 4 or more-bedroom house 4 1-bedroom flat 11 2-bedroom flat 20 3 or more-bedroom flat 1 1 or 2-bedroom bungalow 10 3 or more-bedroom bungalow 6 1-bedroom other 1 2-bedroom other 0 3 or more- bedroom other 1 Total Interest 194 Source: 2018 Household Survey (unweighted data)

Interest was mostly for 2 and 3-bedroom houses for both existing and newly forming households. Smaller sized flats and bungalows were of lesser interest.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 45

Concluding remarks and key findings Regarding market housing, there is a clear difference in the profile of the current housing stock and the demand profiles based upon the preferences of households moving over the next 5 years. In the market sector interest is apparent across all dwelling types and sizes however the demand for 3 and 4-bedroom homes is lower and demand for bungalows is higher than the dwelling stock profile. This is consistent with an ageing population. Demand for intermediate housing mostly takes the form of 2 and 3-bedroom houses.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 46

Further information from the Household Survey Public priorities for additional housing All household representative respondents were invited to respond to questions about priorities for future new build in their local area. This was a multiple-choice question and some respondents did not respond to every question. Our analysis is based upon the number of responses for each priority divided by the total number of responses for each question. The questions in table 6.1 relate to household circumstances. The questions in table 6.2 relate to dwelling types. Table 6.1 tells us that the highest priority household groups for additional housing, should it be built, was perceived to be ‘affordable housing for low income households’ followed by ‘housing for first time buyers’ and ‘sheltered housing for older / disabled people’. The highest scoring ‘no priority’ groups were ‘people seeking to commission to build their own home’ followed by ‘people seeking private landlord rentals’ and ‘people seeking shared ownership’.

Table 6.1 Responses to consultation questions – household circumstances High No Priority Some Priority Priority Total First time buyers 9.0 29.2 61.8 100.0 People seeking private landlord rentals 43.8 44.1 12.1 100.0 Affordable housing for low income 9.4 25.4 65.2 100.0 households People seeking shared ownership 38.7 46.5 14.7 100.0 Older people that want to downsize 18.6 45.7 35.7 100.0 Families that need to upsize 21.3 51.5 27.1 100.0 Sheltered housing for older / disabled 8.8 34.0 57.3 100.0 people People seeking to commission to build their 49.6 32.7 17.6 100.0 own home People providing care or support for village 13.1 53.2 33.8 100.0 residents Adapted home for people with disabilities 7.8 41.0 51.2 100.0 Source: household survey 2018

Table 6.2 tells us that the highest priority for dwelling types, was perceived to be ‘small family homes 2/3 bedrooms’ followed by ‘small homes for singles and couples’. The highest scoring ‘no priority’ groups were ‘town houses 3 storeys’ followed by ‘detached houses’.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 47

Table 6.2 Responses to consultation questions – dwelling types No Priority Some Priority High Priority Total Small homes for singles and couples 17.5 45.3 37.2 100.0 Small family homes 2 or 3 bedrooms 8.0 34.3 57.8 100.0 Larger family homes 4 or 5 bedrooms 41.4 38.1 20.5 100.0 Detached houses 44.6 40.7 14.7 100.0 Bungalows 20.6 44.2 35.2 100.0 Semi-detached homes 27.5 56.0 16.6 100.0 Terraced homes 47.1 40.7 12.2 100.0 Flats or apartments 51.4 35.4 13.2 100.0 Town houses 3-storeys 76.2 19.7 4.1 100.0 Source: household survey 2018

Farming households Consultation with community council representatives highlighted concerns about the difficulties that farmers faced in terms of the economics of farming, suitable housing for farmers and other members of their family and how this may affect the farm on retirement of the farmer. Table 6.3 records the location preferences of those farming households seeking to move home in the next 5 years. Further analysis is needed as the high proportions of households seeking to move away from the farm might be due to retirement or sale of the business.

Table 6.3 Location preferences of households intending to move home

Existing households % Newly forming households % On the farm 28 31 Near to the farm 18 20 In a nearby town 23 25 Elsewhere 31 25 Total 100 100

Source: household survey 2018

Methodology The methodology applied to this study differs from the pilot studies carried out in 2017, as household surveys were conducted separately. The method subsequently adopted in this project sampled all wards in a single survey. This was to ensure that the full extent of need could be captured across the study area. A weakness in the pilot study was that need might not be measured that arose from a household resident in another rural ward.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 48

Summary and Conclusion Introduction This section brings all of the above key finding together in order to arrive at some conclusions.

Housing market dynamics and drivers In reviewing house prices, relative affordability, migration, travel to work patterns, a picture of the market dynamics of the County emerges.

Migration and travel to work • the rural area has a low level of migration from the rest of the County. Nearly half of all market vacancies are filled by households that previously lived outside the County; a high proportion of which came from elsewhere in the UK; • most residents travel to work within Carmarthenshire, the largest outflows are to Swansea and Cardiff;

Population and households • in 2017 the highest proportion of people living in the rural area were in the 45-64 age range closely followed by those aged over 65. These groups made up 57% of the population; • the age distribution of the population differs considerably across the rural wards; • the highest proportion of older people (aged 65 and over) was found in the wards of Llangunnor (32.3%) and St. Ishmael (31.3%). The largest proportion of younger people (aged 15-44) lived in St Clears ward ((33%), (older persons 23%)) and Whitland ((32%), (older persons 23%)) • the number of residents aged under 65 will decrease by 6.4% from 141,659 in 2018 to 132,549 in 2033. The number aged 65 or more will increase by 27.7% from 44,457 in 2018 to 56,769 in 2033; • the total number of households in Carmarthenshire is expected to increase by 6,780 by 2033, from 82,751 in 2018 to 89,531, an increase of 8.7%; • the main increase is within the one-person household group (+14.3% increase), followed by the couple only household group (+7.0% increase). The number of households with children also increase but to a lesser degree.

House prices and affordability • Carmarthenshire as a whole has lower house prices than the Welsh average; • even at these lower prices some housing is not affordable to local households;

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 49

• most rural wards have higher average price than Carmarthenshire as a whole; • rural ward areas vary significantly in price. A key factor in this is the degree to which larger detached homes are present; • the average lower quartile house price was £97,000 in the year 2018; and • the household income required to service a mortgage when purchasing a home at this price, assuming a 10% deposit, is £24,943. This approximates to the median income across the County.

Household and housing stock characteristics The rural wards that form the study area contain around 29% of Carmarthenshire’s housing stock. The profile of the housing stock differs significantly between the rural area and Carmarthenshire as a whole. The rural area has a significantly larger proportion of: • detached houses (38.7%), which in some wards represent 50% of all homes, compared to a Carmarthenshire average of 25.6%; • bungalows (27.2%) which in most wards account for 25% of the dwelling stock, compared to the average for Carmarthenshire as a whole (17.3%); • 4-bedroom homes (23.2%) – over 30% in 2 wards, compared to the average for Carmarthenshire as a whole (17.2%); • owner occupation (76.2%) compared to the average for the County as a whole (71.5%); The rural area has a significantly smaller proportion of affordable housing; It formed 10.6% of the rural housing stock in year 2011 compared to Carmarthenshire as a whole (16%). In 2011 the private rented sector formed roughly the same proportion of the housing stock in the rural area and Carmarthenshire as a whole (13.2% and 13.5%) respectively. The rural area has a significantly higher proportion of households that were married with no children and households all aged over 65. The rural area has a lower proportion of households that are lone parents with dependent children if in the private rented sector and younger single person social renters.

The level of affordable housing need The household survey found that across the rural area: • 1,035 existing households are currently in housing need (approximately 4% of all households);

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 50

• the most frequent reasons being ‘present accommodation too difficult to maintain’ and ‘is too expensive’ and or ‘someone in the household has illness or disability’ and ‘is living in unsuitable housing’; • of these 484 households are in affordable need. They cannot afford to resolve their own housing problems; • this results in 69 households in affordable need annually; and • 298 households are estimated to form and be in affordable need every year. Taking into account estimated annual supply, there is a net affordable shortage of 171 affordable homes a year. This is equivalent to a 5 year need of 855 affordable homes. Household survey data would suggest that a proportion of the future affordable supply should be at accessibility or wheelchair standard. Detailed analysis was undertaken at ward level. It is apparent that gross need (before supply is factored in varies considerably from ward to ward: • affordable need from existing households occurs in every ward with the largest need being recorded in Llandeilo, Llanddarog and Llangeler which account for one third of the affordable need for this group. • Affordable need from newly forming households is greatest in Llangeler by some margin followed by and Llanddarog. • net need takes into account the anticipated supply of affordable housing in each ward which is greatest in Llangunnor and Llangeler • total need minus total supply means that the greatest levels of net need are found in Llanddarog and Llangeler.

Market and intermediate housing demand There is a clear difference in the profile of the current housing stock and the demand profiles based upon the preferences of households moving over the next 5 years. In the market sector interest is apparent across all dwelling types and sizes however the demand for 3 and 4-bedroom homes is lower and demand for bungalows is higher than the dwelling stock profile. This is consistent with an ageing population. Demand for intermediate housing mostly takes the form of 2 and 3-bedroom houses.

Respondent perceptions of priorities for additional housing should it be provided Respondents told us that that the highest priority household groups for additional housing, should it be built, was perceived to be ‘affordable housing for low income households’ followed by ‘housing for first time buyers’ and ‘sheltered housing for older / disabled people’. The highest scoring ‘no priority’ groups were ‘people seeking to commission to build their own home’ followed by ‘people seeking private landlord rentals’ and ‘people seeking shared ownership’.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 51

the highest priority for dwelling types, was perceived to be ‘small family homes 2/3 bedrooms’ followed by ‘small homes for singles and couples’. The highest scoring ‘no priority’ groups were ‘town houses 3 storeys’ followed by ‘detached houses’.

Farming households A majority of existing households sought to move away from the farm and live in a nearby town or ‘elsewhere’. However, half of newly forming households sought to live on or near the farm.

Conclusions The evidence suggests that, in the rural area, the relationship between housing and households is unbalanced. This is because there is a higher proportion of detached houses and 4-bedroom houses that are mostly owner occupied than the County as a whole. The households occupying them tend to be households that were married with no children and households all aged over 65. The population and household trends for the county show that this imbalance is likely to worsen as the number of residents aged under 65 will decrease and the number aged 65 or more will increase. The total number of households in Carmarthenshire is expected to increase by 6,780 an increase of 8.7% to the year 2033 and the main increase is within the one-person household group followed by the couple only household group. The number of households with children also increase but to a lesser degree. A further consequence of this trend is a reduction in the number and proportion of the working age population. These large, detached houses set in Carmarthenshire’s rural landscape attract high prices compared to the urban areas. Their presence and pricing mean that the market for these homes mostly incomers and returners to the area that can afford the prices. The rural population will age and as people live longer this housing will become increasingly unsuitable. There is the potential for some households to self-fund more suitable housing in the rural area as a large proportion of the rural housing stock is in the form of bungalows. A further feature of the imbalance is that the rented tenures are small in comparison to the owner occupier tenure in the rural area. However, whilst the County population overall is projected to grow by 1.7%, the number of households will increase by 8.7%. Unless there is increased supply of smaller, less expensive homes, whether at market, intermediate or affordable tenures, this imbalance is likely to get worse.. Having established the drivers and characteristics of the market we can consider the research findings regarding need for additional affordable housing in the rural area. The evidence suggests that there is significant affordable need both from existing and newly forming households on the basis that these households cannot afford the

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 52

market housing that is available. This varies ward by ward as the household income and house prices vary on a ward by ward basis (appendix B tables 2 and 3) with newly forming households particularly badly placed to participate in the market. The evidence suggests that the 5-year need is some 855 additional affordable homes but distributed unevenly across the rural wards. The characteristics of Carmarthenshire’s rural housing market and the level of need identified by the survey provides compelling justification for investment in affordable housing in the area.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 53

Appendix A: Relative affordability by rural ward

Tenure option Price (2018)

Laugharne Llanfihangel Llanfihang Manordeilo Carmarthenshire Abergwili Cenarth Cilycwm Cynwyl Elfed Township Llanboidy Llanddarog Llandeilo Llandovery Llanegwad Aberbythych el-ar-Arth Llangadog Llangeler Llangunnor Llangyndeyrn Llansteffan Llanybydder and Salem St. Clears St. Ishmael Whitland Total Social Rent (average) £377 £377 £377 £377 £377 £377 £377 £377 £377 £377 £377 £377 £377 £377 £377 £377 £377 £377 £377 £377 £377 £377 £377 Affordable Rent (80% of median private rent) £440 £397 £440 £419 £440 £402 £440 £394 £286 £520 £478 £419 £440 £398 £409 £388 £477 £440 £398 £419 £440 £440 £398 Market Rent - Lower Quartile £481 £438 £498 £451 £459 £329 £498 £425 £316 £572 £451 £451 £524 £425 £494 £451 £550 £498 £477 £429 £477 £488 £451 Market Rent - Median £550 £496 £550 £524 £550 £503 £550 £492 £358 £650 £598 £524 £550 £498 £511 £485 £596 £550 £498 £524 £550 £550 £498 Market Rent - Upper Quartile £676 £546 £572 £650 £693 £698 £750 £537 £420 £750 £650 £594 £750 £574 £624 £594 £702 £624 £524 £650 £724 £598 £594 Market Sale - Lower Quartile £166,000 £123,000 £128,000 £129,950 £105,000 £151,000 £124,000 £111,000 £102,500 £140,000 £135,000 £100,250 £125,000 £135,000 £154,000 £103,000 £132,500 £134,750 £177,000 £113,500 £95,000 £119,000 £97,000 Market Sale - Median £193,500 £167,475 £227,500 £180,000 £160,000 £196,500 £198,000 £158,750 £156,000 £193,000 £183,000 £162,500 £232,000 £170,000 £195,750 £129,995 £154,000 £175,500 £230,000 £139,000 £126,000 £136,500 £135,000 Market Sale - Average £249,966 £186,237 £264,145 £298,207 £202,937 £229,193 £228,393 £184,067 £201,187 £229,757 £203,632 £183,534 £267,602 £191,814 £208,007 £142,948 £175,815 £211,516 £276,364 £153,076 £157,793 £176,656 £164,717 Starter Home £154,800 £133,980 £182,000 £144,000 £128,000 £157,200 £158,400 £127,000 £124,800 £154,400 £146,400 £130,000 £185,600 £136,000 £156,600 £103,996 £123,200 £140,400 £184,000 £111,200 £100,800 £109,200 £108,000 Shared ownership (50%) £96,750 £83,738 £113,750 £90,000 £80,000 £98,250 £99,000 £79,375 £78,000 £96,500 £91,500 £81,250 £116,000 £85,000 £97,875 £64,998 £77,000 £87,750 £115,000 £69,500 £63,000 £68,250 £67,500 Shared ownership (25%) £48,375 £41,869 £56,875 £45,000 £40,000 £49,125 £49,500 £39,688 £39,000 £48,250 £45,750 £40,625 £58,000 £42,500 £48,938 £32,499 £38,500 £43,875 £57,500 £34,750 £31,500 £34,125 £33,750 Help to buy £193,500 £167,475 £227,500 £180,000 £160,000 £196,500 £198,000 £158,750 £156,000 £193,000 £183,000 £162,500 £232,000 £170,000 £195,750 £129,995 £154,000 £175,500 £230,000 £139,000 £126,000 £136,500 £135,000 Tenure option Income required (2018)

Laugharne Llanfihangel Llanfihang Manordeilo Carmarthenshire Abergwili Cenarth Cilycwm Cynwyl Elfed Township Llanboidy Llanddarog Llandeilo Llandovery Llanegwad Aberbythych el-ar-Arth Llangadog Llangeler Llangunnor Llangyndeyrn Llansteffan Llanybydder and Salem St. Clears St. Ishmael Whitland Total Social Rent £18,096 £18,096 £18,096 £18,096 £18,096 £18,096 £18,096 £18,096 £18,096 £18,096 £18,096 £18,096 £18,096 £18,096 £18,096 £18,096 £18,096 £18,096 £18,096 £18,096 £18,096 £18,096 £18,096 Affordable Rent (80% of median private rent) £21,120 £19,046 £21,120 £20,122 £21,120 £19,315 £21,120 £18,893 £13,728 £24,960 £22,963 £20,122 £21,120 £19,123 £19,622 £18,624 £22,886 £21,120 £19,123 £20,122 £21,120 £21,120 £19,123 Market Rent - Lower Quartile £23,088 £21,024 £23,904 £21,648 £22,032 £15,792 £23,904 £20,400 £15,168 £27,456 £21,648 £21,648 £25,152 £20,400 £23,712 £21,648 £26,400 £23,904 £22,896 £20,592 £22,896 £23,424 £21,648 Market Rent - Median £26,400 £23,808 £26,400 £25,152 £26,400 £24,144 £26,400 £23,616 £17,160 £31,200 £28,704 £25,152 £26,400 £23,904 £24,528 £23,280 £28,608 £26,400 £23,904 £25,152 £26,400 £26,400 £23,904 Market Rent - Upper Quartile £32,448 £26,208 £27,456 £31,200 £33,264 £33,504 £36,000 £25,776 £20,160 £36,000 £31,200 £28,512 £36,000 £27,552 £29,952 £28,512 £33,696 £29,952 £25,152 £31,200 £34,752 £28,704 £28,512 Market Sale - Lower Quartile (assumes 10% deposit) £42,686 £31,629 £32,914 £33,416 £27,000 £38,829 £31,886 £28,543 £26,357 £36,000 £34,714 £25,779 £32,143 £34,714 £39,600 £26,486 £34,071 £34,650 £45,514 £29,186 £24,429 £30,600 £24,943 Market Sale - Median (assumes 10% deposit) £49,757 £43,065 £58,500 £46,286 £41,143 £50,529 £50,914 £40,821 £40,114 £49,629 £47,057 £41,786 £59,657 £43,714 £50,336 £33,427 £39,600 £45,129 £59,143 £35,743 £32,400 £35,100 £34,714 Market Sale - Average (assumes 10% deposit) £64,277 £47,890 £67,923 £76,682 £52,184 £58,935 £58,730 £47,332 £51,734 £59,080 £52,363 £47,194 £68,812 £49,324 £53,488 £36,758 £45,210 £54,390 £71,065 £39,362 £40,575 £45,426 £42,356 Starter Home £39,806 £34,452 £46,800 £37,029 £32,914 £40,423 £40,731 £32,657 £32,091 £39,703 £37,646 £33,429 £47,726 £34,971 £40,269 £26,742 £31,680 £36,103 £47,314 £28,594 £25,920 £28,080 £27,771 Shared ownership (50%) £36,721 £31,944 £42,963 £34,243 £30,571 £37,272 £37,547 £30,342 £29,837 £36,629 £34,794 £31,030 £43,789 £32,407 £37,134 £25,063 £29,470 £33,417 £43,421 £26,716 £24,330 £26,258 £25,982 Shared ownership (25%) £30,294 £26,381 £35,406 £28,264 £25,257 £30,745 £30,971 £25,069 £24,656 £30,219 £28,715 £25,633 £36,083 £26,761 £30,632 £20,746 £24,355 £27,588 £35,782 £22,100 £20,145 £21,724 £21,498 Help to buy £41,464 £35,888 £48,750 £38,571 £34,286 £42,107 £42,429 £34,018 £33,429 £41,357 £39,214 £34,821 £49,714 £36,429 £41,946 £27,856 £33,000 £37,607 £49,286 £29,786 £27,000 £29,250 £28,929 Source: Data produced by Land Registry © Crown copyright 2019, Zoopla 2019, HCA

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 54

Technical Appendix B: Housing need calculations

Summary of contents

C. CURRENT NEED 1. Existing households in need of alternative housing 2. plus Current non-households in need 3. minus cases where they can afford to meet their needs in the market 4. equals Total current housing need A. AVAILABLE STOCK TO OFFSET NEED 5. Current occupiers of affordable housing in need 6. plus Surplus stock 7. plus Committed supply of new affordable units 8. minus planned units to be taken out of management 9. equals Total available stock to meet current need 10. equals Total Current Need 11. times quota progressively to reduce level of current need 12. equals Annual need to reduce level of current need 13. New household formation (gross p.a.) 14. times proportion unable to buy or rent in the market 15. plus existing households falling into need 16. minus potential out-migrants unable to afford market housing 17. plus in-migrants unable to afford market housing 18. equals newly-arising need S. SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE UNITS per year 19. Net supply of social re-lets 20. plus supply of intermediate housing available for re-let or resale at sub-market levels 21. equals Affordable supply NET SHORTFALL OR SURPLUS 22. Overall shortfall or surplus (annual imbalance)

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 55

Introduction B.1 Local Housing Market Assessment Guidance sets out the approach to assessing housing need. Housing need generally refers to households lacking their own housing or living in housing which is inadequate or unsuitable, who are unlikely to be able to meet their needs in the local housing market without assistance. B.2 Affordable housing is housing provided to those whose needs are not met by the market. Affordable housing should: • Meet the needs of eligible households, including availability at low enough cost for them to afford, determined with regard to local incomes and house prices; and • Include provision for the home to remain affordable for future eligible households, or if a home ceases to be affordable or stair casing to full ownership takes place, any subsidy should generally be recycled to provide replacement housing. B.3 Affordable housing includes social rented and intermediate housing. B.4 Intermediate housing is that where prices or rents are above those of social rented housing but below market housing prices or rents. This can include equity sharing schemes (for example Homebuy). Intermediate housing differs from low cost market housing, which the Assembly Government does not consider to be affordable housing. Intermediate housing can help existing tenants to move out of the social sector (and release the unit for use by another). B.5 Housing needs analysis and affordable housing modelling has been prepared in accordance with Government guidance at rural Carmarthenshire and rural ward level. Modelling has used 2018 household survey and secondary data. In summary, the model reviews in a step-wise process:

1. C: Current housing need (gross backlog) Minus 2. A: Available stock to offset need plus 3. N: Newly arising need (future) Minus 4. S: Supply of affordable units (future); Equals 5. Net shortfall (or surplus) of affordable units each year

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 56

Stage 1: C: Current need Step 1. Existing households in need of alternative housing B.6 A working definition of housing need is ‘the quantity of housing required for households who are unable to access suitable housing without financial assistance’. The LHMA Guidance suggests types of housing that should be considered unsuitable, as summarised in Table B1. Modelling assumes a total of 1,030 existing households in need of alternative housing within the rural area.

Table B1 Summary of current housing need across Carmarthenshire Rural Area Carmarthenshire Rural Category Factor Total Homeless households or N1 Under notice, real threat of notice or 161 with insecure tenure lease coming to an end N2 Too expensive, and in receipt of housing benefit or in arrears due to 274 expense Mismatch of housing need N3 Overcrowded according to the 126 and dwellings 'bedroom standard' model N4 Too difficult to maintain 400 N5 Couples, people with children and single adults over 25 sharing a kitchen, 35 bathroom or WC with another household N6 Household containing people with mobility impairment or other special 254 needs living in unsuitable accommodation Dwelling amenities and N7/8 The dwelling fails to meet the condition requirements of the Housing, Health and Safety Rating System (HHSRS) and vulnerable households do not have the 80 resources to carry out works to meet the standards. Therefore, financial assistance may be required Social needs N9 Harassment or threats of harassment from neighbours or others living in the 16 vicinity which cannot be resolved except through a move Total no. households in need (with one or more housing need) 1,030 Total Households 26,334 % households in need 3.9% Note: A household may have more than one housing need. Source: 2018 Household Survey

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 57

Step 2. Removing those that can afford to meet their housing needs in the open market. B.7 This involves applying affordability criteria to the incomes of all households in need of alternative accommodation. A household is considered likely to be able to afford to buy a home that costs 3.5x the gross household income for a single earner household or 2.9x for dual income households. Analysis also takes account of existing equity and savings/help from parents. Table B2 summarises the house prices used in analysis. B.8 A household should be able to afford market rented housing where the rent payable would constitute no more than 25% of their gross household income. Table B3 summarises rental prices used in analysis.

Table B2 Lower quartile market prices 2018 across Carmarthenshire Rural Area Ward Lower quartile price (£) Abergwili £166,000 Cenarth £123,000 Cilycwm £128,000 Cynwyl Elfed £129,950 Laugharne Township £105,000 Llanboidy £151,000 Llanddarog £124,000 Llandeilo £111,000 Llandovery £102,500 Llanegwad £140,000 Llanfihangel Aberbythych £135,000 Llanfihangel-ar-Arth £100,250 Llangadog £125,000 Llangeler £135,000 Llangunnor £154,000 Llangyndeyrn £103,000 Llansteffan £32,500 Llanybydder £134,750 Manordeilo and Salem £177,000 St. Clears £113,500 St. Ishmael £95,000 Whitland £119,000 Carmarthenshire Rural Area average. £97,000 Source: Land Registry Price Paid Data: 2018

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 58

Table B3 Lower quartile private rents 2018 across Carmarthenshire Rural Area Lower quartile rents per month Ward (£) Abergwili £481 Cenarth £438 Cilycwm £498 Cynwyl Elfed £451 Laugharne Township £459 Llanboidy £329 Llanddarog £498 Llandeilo £425 Llandovery £316 Llanegwad £572 Llanfihangel Aberbythych £451 Llanfihangel-ar-Arth £451 Llangadog £524 Llangeler £425 Llangunnor £494 Llangyndeyrn £451 Llansteffan £550 Llanybydder £498 Manordeilo and Salem £477 St. Clears £429 St. Ishmael £477 Whitland £488 Carmarthenshire Rural Area average £447 Source: Zoopla 2018

B.9 An analysis of incomes and equity/access to savings identifies that 88 households could afford open market solutions.

Step 4. Total current housing need B.10 Having identified the scale of housing need in Steps 1 and 2 and assessed the ability of households to access the open market in Step 3, there are a total of 80 existing households in need, wanting to move to offset their need and who could not afford open market solutions.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 59

Stage 2: A: Available stock to offset need Step 5. Removing current occupiers of affordable housing in need B.11 This is an important consideration in establishing the net levels of affordable housing need as the movement of these households will have a nil effect in terms of additional housing need. The total number of such households is 9.

Step 6. Surplus stock B.12 A certain level of voids is normal within Council and Housing Association stock to allow for transfers and works on properties. However, if the rate is in excess of approximately 3% and properties are vacant for considerable periods of time, these should be counted as surplus stock. According to StatsWales, a total of 103 social rented dwellings were vacant in Carmarthenshire and available for letting which equates to around 0.4% of dwelling stock, therefore no surplus stock is assumed in this analysis.

Step 7. Committed supply of new affordable housing B.13 This includes new (and conversions) social rented and intermediate housing which are already planned to be built over the time period of the assessment. Data from StatsWales at Local Authority level shows that 188 affordable housing units were delivered between 2013-2018 in Carmarthenshire (0.2% of stock). If we apply this proportion to the Rural Carmarthenshire stock (26,334) the total affordable housing over five years equates to 53 units. The Affordable Homes Delivery Plan 2016-2020 indicates that over the five-year-period there is a plan for 75 affordable dwellings for Carmarthenshire Rural and Market Towns (this includes utilising some of the existing stock). The modelling assumes a blended rate of development over the next five years of the StatsWales data and the AH DPD data (i.e. 64 dwellings).

Step 8. Units taken out of management B.14 This involves estimating the numbers of social rented or intermediate units that will be taken out of management each year as affected households will be in need of alternative accommodation. None are assumed in this analysis.

Step 9. Total available stock to meet current need B.15 This is the total stock available, or predicted to become available, over the assessment time period. It is the sum of Steps 5 to 7 minus Step 8. The total available stock to meet current need is 73.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 60

Step 10. Total unmet need B.16 This is the current number of households who are in housing need and unable to meet their needs in the market. It is calculated by subtracting Step 9 (total available stock to meet current need) from Step 4 (total current gross housing need). This calculation assumes a one-to-one relationship between households and dwellings. The total unmet current need is 7.

Step 11. Quota to reduce levels of current need B.17 Modelling assumes that current need is met over a five-year-period. Therefore, a quota of 20% is used.

Step 12. Annual requirement to reduce the level of current unmet need B.18 This is the number of affordable units that will be needed each year to address levels of unmet housing need over the time period agreed in Step 11. It is obtained by multiplying the current need (Step 10) by the quota (Step 11). This results in an annual requirement of 1 dwelling.

Stage 3: N: Newly arising need Step 13. New household formation B.19 The needs analysis assumes an annual household formation rate of 42. This is based on the number of households actually forming in the five years preceding the 2018 household survey and the number of newly forming households over the next five years.

Step 14. Proportion unable to buy or rent in the market B.20 Analysis of lower quartile market prices relative to the income/savings and lower quartile private rents relative to income of households who have formed in the past five years suggests that 87.7% could not afford lower quartile house prices or private sector rents. B.21 Therefore, the total number of newly-forming households who could not afford open market prices or rents in the Rural area is calculated to be 37 each year.

Step 15. Existing households falling into need B.22 This is based on the number of households who fell into housing need in the five years preceding the household survey and moved into affordable dwellings. This equates to an annual need from 2 households.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 61

Steps 16 and 17. In and out-migrants unable to afford market housing B.23 The household survey identifies in-migrant households who have moved into the rural area and into affordable housing in the last five years (A total of 9 each year). The survey also identifies those households who are planning to move out of the Rural area and cannot afford market prices (4 each year).

Step 18. Total newly arising need B.24 This is the annual gross level of newly arising housing need for affordable housing. It is calculated by adding together newly forming households unable to afford market housing (Step 13 times Step 14), existing households falling into need (Step 15) and in- migrants unable to afford market housing (Step 17), then subtracting out-migrants unable to afford market housing. Total newly arising need is calculated to be 44 each year.

Stage 4: S: Supply of affordable units Step 19. Net supply of social re-lets B.25 A total of 37 lettings were recorded annually for the rural area (Council Data).

Step 20. Annual supply of intermediate housing B.26 As there was no secondary data available it is assumed for this model that there are 0 (zero) intermediate dwellings made available for re-let / resale.

Step 21. Total affordable supply B.27 This is the predicted sum of annual supply of affordable units (i.e. both social rented and intermediate housing). Total affordable supply is 37 dwellings each year.

Net shortfall or surplus B.28 This is the overall level (i.e. shortfall or surplus) of affordable housing that would need to be provided each year in order to meet housing need over the chosen time period. It is calculated by subtracting the supply of affordable housing (Step 21) from the annual need (Step 12 plus Step 18). Analysis would suggest an annual shortfall of 8 affordable dwellings across the Rural area of Carmarthenshire. B.29 Tables B1 and B2 provide a full breakdown of all of the stages of the model together with the calculation steps applicable to each stage. These tables provide a breakdown for the Carmarthenshire Rural Area and for each ward area within the rural area.

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 62

Outputs at Rural Area level

Table B4 Rural area summary of net affordable need using unweighted data

Element and step in calculation Calculation Carmarthenshire Total households >>> 5,109 C. CURRENT NEED 1. Existing households in need of alternative housing 164 2. plus Current non-households in need 4 3. minus cases where they can afford to meet their 88 needs in the market 4. equals Total current housing need C1+C2-C3 80 A. AVAILABLE STOCK TO OFFSET NEED 5. Current occupiers of affordable housing in need 9 6. plus Surplus stock 0 7. plus Committed supply of new affordable homes Over 5 years 64 8 minus planned homes to be taken out of 0 management 9. equals Total available stock to meet current need 5+6+7-8 73 10. equals Total Current Need 4-9 7 11. times quota progressively to reduce level of current 20% need 12. equals Annual need to reduce level of current need 10x11 1 N: NEWLY ARISING NEED 13. New household formation (gross p.a.) annual 42 14. times proportion unable to buy or rent in the 87.7 market 15. plus existing households falling into need annual 2 16. minus potential out-migrants unable to afford annual 4 market housing 17. plus in-migrants unable to afford market housing 9 18. equals newly-arising need (13x14)+15-16+17 44 S. SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE HOMES per year 19. Net supply of social re-lets annual 37 20. plus supply of intermediate housing available for re- 0 let or resale at sub-market levels 21. equals Affordable supply 37 NET SHORTFALL OR SURPLUS 22. Overall shortfall or surplus (annual imbalance) 12+18-21 8

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 63

Table B5A Rural area summary of net affordable need using unweighted data by ward

Cynwyl Laugharne C. CURRENT NEED Abergwili Cenarth Cilycwm Elfed Township Llanboidy Llanddarog Llandeilo 1. Existing households in need of alternative housing 5 6 4 4 5 7 9 14 2. plus Current non-households in need 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3. minus cases where they can afford to meet their needs in the market % 69.7 50.7 34.6 82.3 64.0 62.5 44.1 54.2 No. 3 3 1 3 3 4 4 8 4. equals Total current housing need C1+C2-C3 2 3 3 1 2 4 5 6 A. AVAILABLE STOCK TO OFFSET NEED 5. Current occupiers of affordable housing in need 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 6. plus Surplus stock 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7. plus Committed supply of new affordable units 3 3 2 4 3 2 3 3 8 minus planned units to be taken out of management 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9. equals Total available stock to meet current need 5+6+7-8 3 4 2 4 5 2 3 3 10. equals Total Current Need 4-9 -1 -1 1 -3 -3 1 2 3 11. times quota progressively to reduce level of current need Policy judgement 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 12. equals Annual need to reduce level of current need 10x11 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 1

13. New household formation (gross p.a.) 2 2 1 2 3 2 2 1 14. times proportion unable to buy or rent in the market 92.0 100.0 80.0 84.0 86.2 100.0 85.6 86.8 15. plus existing households falling into need and unable to afford market housing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16. minus potential out-migrants unable to afford market housing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17. plus in-migrants unable to afford market housing 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 18. equals newly-arising need (13x14)+15-16+17 3 2 0 3 3 1 3 1 S. SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE UNITS per year 19. Net supply of social re-lets 0 2 1 1 2 0 1 2 20. plus supply of intermediate housing available for re-let or resale at sub-market levels 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21. equals Affordable supply 19+20 0 2 1 1 2 0 1 2 NET SHORTFALL OR SURPLUS 22. Overall shortfall or surplus 12+18-21 3 0 0 1 0 1 3 -1

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 64

Table B5B Rural area summary of net affordable need using unweighted data by ward

Llanfihangel Llanfihangel- Llangyndeyr Manordeilo Llandovery Llanegwad Aberbythych ar-Arth Llangadog Llangeler Llangunnor n Llansteffan Llanybydder and Salem St. Clears St. Ishmael Whitland Total 9 6 6 5 10 10 8 11 11 6 8 7 6 7 164 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 4 69.1 47.2 48.4 55.0 36.9 45.2 61.5 52.0 57.0 30.8 60.7 59.3 68.2 40.2 53.4 6 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 2 5 4 4 3 88 3 3 3 2 6 5 3 6 5 5 3 4 2 4 80

0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 2 3 2 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 64 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 2 3 2 5 4 5 3 4 3 4 3 4 73 0 0 1 -1 4 0 -1 2 2 1 0 0 -1 1 7 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

2 3 1 2 2 2 2 3 1 2 2 3 2 2 42 95.9 97.0 92.4 81.0 92.0 92.5 79.0 73.7 85.2 88.0 90.8 78.4 81.4 100.0 87.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 9 2 3 2 1 2 3 2 1 2 1 1 3 1 2 44

3 0 1 3 1 4 4 3 1 2 0 2 1 2 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 3 1 4 4 3 1 2 0 2 1 2 37

-1 2 2 -2 2 -1 -2 -2 2 -1 1 1 0 0 8

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 65

Table B6A Rural area summary of net affordable need using weighted data by ward

Wards Within Rural Cynwyl Laugharne C. CURRENT NEED Area Abergwili Cenarth Cilycwm Elfed Township Llanboidy Llanddarog Llandeilo 1. Existing households in need of alternative housing 40 39 28 20 36 36 76 119 2. plus Current non-households in need 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3. minus cases where they can afford to meet their needs in the market % 69.7 50.7 34.6 82.3 64.0 62.5 44.1 54.2 No. 28 20 10 16 23 23 34 64 4. equals Total current housing need C1+C2-C8 12 19 18 4 13 15 43 55 A. AVAILABLE STOCK TO OFFSET NEED 5. Current occupiers of affordable housing in need 0 5 0 0 10 0 0 0 6. plus Surplus stock 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7. plus Committed supply of new affordable units 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 4 8 minus planned units to be taken out of management 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9. equals Total available stock to meet current need 5+6+7-8 2 8 2 3 13 2 2 4 10. equals Total Current Need 4-9 10 12 17 0 0 12 40 51 11. times quota progressively to reduce level of current need Policy judgement 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 12. equals Annual need to reduce level of current need 10x11 2 2 3 0 0 2 8 10

13. New household formation (gross p.a.) 11 12 7 14 14 10 9 16 14. times proportion unable to buy or rent in the market 92.0 100.0 80.0 84.0 86.2 100.0 85.6 86.8 15. plus existing households falling into need and unable to afford market housing 0 3 0 0 2 0 0 0 16. minus potential out-migrants unable to afford market housing 0 1 3 0 0 1 0 0 17. plus in-migrants unable to afford market housing 3 0 0 4 0 0 10 0 18. equals newly-arising need (13x14)+15-16+17 13 14 3 16 14 8 18 14 S. SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE UNITS per year 19. Net supply of social re-lets 2 11 4 5 11 2 4 13 20. plus supply of intermediate housing available for re-let or resale at sub-market levels 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21. equals Affordable supply 19+20 2 11 4 5 11 2 4 13 NET SHORTFALL OR SURPLUS 22. Overall shortfall or surplus 12+18-21 13 5 2 11 3 9 22 11

November 2019 Carmarthenshire Rural Housing Needs 2019 Page | 66

Table B6B Rural area summary of net affordable need using weighted data by ward – cont’d……….

Llanfihangel Llanfihangel- Manordeilo Llandovery Llanegwad Aberbythych ar-Arth Llangadog Llangeler Llangunnor Llangyndeyrn Llansteffan Llanybydder and Salem St. Clears St. Ishmael Whitland Total 59 34 34 35 45 86 35 59 61 30 37 46 33 43 1031 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 4 69.1 47.2 48.4 55.0 36.9 45.2 61.5 52.0 57.0 30.8 60.7 59.3 68.2 40.2 53.4 41 16 16 19 17 39 22 31 35 9 22 27 23 17 551 18 18 18 16 28 47 13 29 26 22 15 20 10 26 484

0 0 0 0 0 7 7 9 0 11 0 9 0 16 74 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 2 3 2 4 3 4 3 3 2 4 4 3 64 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 2 3 2 11 10 13 3 14 2 13 4 19 138 15 15 16 13 26 36 3 16 24 8 12 7 7 7 346 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 3 3 3 3 5 7 1 3 5 2 2 1 1 1 69

13 12 9 14 10 17 13 18 11 14 10 15 16 12 276 95.9 97.0 92.4 81.0 92.0 92.5 79.0 73.7 85.2 88.0 90.8 78.4 81.4 100.0 87.7 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 15 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 3 0 5 2 1 3 0 23 0 0 8 0 0 16 7 0 4 0 0 12 0 0 64 14 12 15 11 9 34 16 10 14 7 7 26 10 13 298

17 2 5 17 4 21 19 20 4 9 2 10 3 13 196 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 2 5 17 4 21 19 20 4 9 2 10 3 13 196

0 13 14 -3 10 20 -2 -7 15 -1 8 17 8 2 171 Note:- This data has been weighted to accurately reflect the affordable need of the whole rural population not just those households who responded (raw data). A weighting factor has been applied to allow for non-responses and to bring the sample back to being representative of the rural population utilising a set of demographic characteristics

November 2019