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Retail Study 2011 - 2031 2015 Update

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Retail Study 2011 - 2031 2015 Update Gloucester, Cheltenham and Tewkesbury Joint Core Strategy Retail Study 2011 - 2031 2015 Update Prepared on behalf of Gloucester City Council, Cheltenham Borough Council and Tewkesbury Borough Council Prepared by Development Planning & Design Services Ltd Old Bank House 5 Devizes Road Swindon SN1 4BJ February 2016 DPDS Ref: DAM/C10165 Contents 1.0 Introduction 1 2.0 The Retail Floorspace Requirements Calculations 2 3.0 The Results 7 4.0 Market Shares by Zone 8 Appendices Appendix 1 Note on February Release Appendix 2 Study Area and Household Survey Zones Appendix 3 Household Survey Results Appendix 4 Retail Capacity Tables – Comparison Goods Appendix 5 Retail Capacity Tables – Convenience Goods Appendix 6 Planning Commitments Appendix 7 Market Shares by Zone 1.0 Introduction 1.1 The Joint Core Strategy (JCS) Retail Study was prepared in 2011. It was updated in 2014 prior to the submission of the JCS. It has been updated again in 2015 at the request of the JCS Examination Inspector. The study was designed in consultation with participants to the JCS at a round table discussion in July 2015. The 2015 update includes a new household survey and base year population and expenditure forecasts and the forecasts were updated to take account of the latest advice of the data supplier, Experian. After the initial results were released as EXAM136, Experian published new forecasts of expenditure growth, special forms of trading (to account for internet shopping) and sales density increase in its Retail Planner Briefing Note 13 (October 2015). The forecasts were revised to take account of this information and submitted to the JCS Examination Library as EXAM136A in November 2015. Following a query at the second Examination hearing and the third roundtable session, the figures were again revised in February 2016. The background to this revision is described in Appendix 1. This report concentrates on the February release since this supersedes the figures shown in EXAM136 and EXAM136A. 1.2 The study area for the 2015 Update is shown in Appendix 2. The new household survey results are attached as Appendix 3. The February Tables (taking account of the revised Experian forecasts of retail expenditure growth, special forms of trading, and sales density increases) are attached as Appendix 4 (for comparison goods) and Appendix 5 (for convenience goods). All monetary values are shown in 2013 prices. A table by table guide is given in the next section of this report. The floorspace requirements are set out Section 3. Section 4 examines the market share of the main centres in each zone. 1.3 The 2015 update follows the basic methodology of the original study as set out Section 4 of the 2011 report. A step by step approach has been adopted in the study and all up-dates as follows Step 1: Define the study area and zones within it; Step 2: Identify the population of the study area in the base and forecast years ; Step 3: Identify the retail expenditure per head in the base and forecast years; Step 4: Calculate the total expenditure available in the study area; Step 5: Assign the expenditure to centres as turnover according to the result of the household survey; Step 6A: For convenience goods expenditure, compare the estimated turnover for food stores against a benchmark based on company average sales density (turnover per sq. m) to estimate the current trading performance of the food stores; Step 6B: For comparison goods expenditure, calculate the share of total comparison goods expenditure that the centre attracts (the market share); and Step 7: For future years, calculate the turnover for each centre (separately for convenience and comparison goods) by applying the market shares to the revised estimate of expenditure in the study area, taking account of population and expenditure growth. This is then compared with the available floorspace in the centre. 1.4 In the original JCS Retail Study (2011), the requirements figures were expressed net of extant planning permissions (commitments). To enable more regular monitoring of the requirements, in the 2015 update, the requirements are now expressed without making any allowance for commitments. Gloucester, Cheltenham and Tewkesbury Joint Core Strategy Retail Study 2011 – 2031 - 2015 Update C10165 February 2016 Page | 1 2.0 Retail Floorspace Requirements Calculations 2.1 The requirement calculations (Appendices 4 & 5) are shown for convenience and comparison goods separately. Table 1 – 4 are common to both sets. 2.2 The base year is 2015 to coincide with the new household survey. 2013 prices have been used. The Study Area and Household Survey 2.3 The study area is shown in Appendix 2. Compared with the earlier studies, it has been increased to the south of Gloucester to include a new zone (Zone 13) covering Cam and Dursley. Zone 1 (Cheltenham) and zone 5 (Gloucester) have each been split into 4 zones (labelled 1a-d and 5 a-d respectively), to allow easier comparison with the earlier Gloucester Retail Study. Zone 3 has been split into a Winchcombe zone (3a) and a North Cotswolds zone (3b) to provide better guidance to Tewkesbury Council. Post Code GL19.4 was transferred from the North Forest zone to Tewkesbury zone to better reflect the catchment of Tewkesbury itself. 2.4 A new household survey of 2008 interviews was carried out during July and August 2015. The questions covered a number of attitudinal questions on how respondents rated the centres as well as questions on their shopping and leisure spending habits. The questions were kept as similar as possible to the 2011 survey to allow comparisons to be made but amended to provide a more detailed breakdown of comparison goods. They were based on the last place people had shopped for the goods rather than where people usually bought goods. This gives a more representative sample of shopping patterns and avoids overestimating the use of the larger centres. The prevalence of internet shopping/mail order was identified in the survey. Sample surveys of this size give an accuracy of about +/- 2.2% (at 95% confidence limits) and this has to be borne in mind, particularly when comparing survey results since both are subject to this sampling error. This sampling error unfortunately does not decline significantly until sample sizes become impractically large. The Requirement Tables 2.5 The requirement calculations are shown for convenience and comparison goods in separate sets of tables. Table 1 – 4 are common to both sets. Table 1 Population 2.6 Table 1 shows the population for each zone in 2013 and for forecast years. The population of the study area is forecast to increase by about 10% over the period 2015 to 2031 (from 655,849 to 721,819). The forecasts are from Experian which bases them on Office of National Statistics (ONS) population forecasts. Tables 2 & 3 Expenditure per Head 2.7 Table 2 shows the expenditure per head figures for the broad categories of expenditure i.e. convenience goods and total comparison goods, Table 3 shows the expenditure per head figures for comparison goods expenditure broken down into the more detailed categories used in the household survey. The definitions of bulky and non-bulky comparison goods in these tables are shown in Appendix 1. The expenditure figures include internet trading/mail order sales (special forms of trading - SFT) and no adjustment has been made at this stage. Gloucester, Cheltenham and Tewkesbury Joint Core Strategy Retail Study 2011 – 2031 - 2015 Update C10165 February 2016 Page | 2 2.8 The forecasts are based on the latest economic forecasts by Experian. The long term trends indicate limited growth in convenience spending year on year, with growth averaging about 0.5% a year over the period to 2011. Growth was concentrated in the period up to 2001 and since then spending per head has been declining. In contrast, comparison goods spending per head has been growing steadily at between 2% and 3% over the longer term. These broad patterns of growth are reflected in Experian’s forecasts which are shown in the table below Expenditure per Head Forecasts – Experian 2015 2016 2017 2018-22 2023-35 Convenience -0.2% +0.1% +0.3% +0.1% +0.1% Comparison +5.3% +3.2% +2.9% +3.0% +3.2% Source Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 13 October 2013 The forecasts suggest a slight increase in convenience spending per head against the significant downward trend through most of this century and a marked bounce back in comparison goods spending. These figures have been used in the capacity tables. Tables 4 and 5 – Total Expenditure 2.9 Table 4 shows the total retail expenditure in the study area in future years by the course categories of goods and Table 5 shows the amounts of comparison goods spending for the more detailed categories. Both are calculated by multiplying the expenditure per head figures in tables 2 and 3 by the population in Table 1. The totals include the expenditure through special forms of trading. Comparison Goods Tables Table 6 Comparison Goods Turnover 2.10 The turnovers are calculated by multiplying the available expenditure calculated in Table 6 by the market shares identified in the household survey. That exercise is carried out by each category of goods as identified in the survey questions. The household survey identifies some 1580 destinations and these are combined into the destinations shown in the table. Special Forms of Trading (SFT) is identified separately. The results by goods type are aggregated in the final column to give the estimated turnovers of the main settlements and centres. Tables 7 - 11 – Floorspace Requirements 2.11 Tables 7 -11 calculate the floorspace requirements for the main settlements.
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