Vol. 20, No. 8 August 2012

In the News Havana’s new customs duties expected to slash Cuba-bound shipments, flights Oswaldo Payá’s legacy Was famous dissident murdered, or victim BY DOREEN HEMLOCK line. He sends down everything from food, bicy- cles and TV sets to supplies for small business- of tragic auto accident? ...... Page 2 ompanies that ship gift parcels to Cuba are bracing for a sharp drop in business this es: nail polish, hair coloring, condiments and Cfall because of new rules from Havana. even the latest fashions for resale. Cruzing to victory Starting Sept. 3, Cuba will require its citizens But once the August rush subsides, the Nov. 6 win by Texas GOP favorite Ted Cruz to pay customs duties on imported goods in the freight businesses wonder how they’ll survive. dollar-like currency known as CUC instead of If islanders can’t afford the higher duties, then to boost pro-embargo forces ...... Page 4 their families abroad will have to cover the extra the island’s peso currency. That means the cost cost. Shipping company executives warn that of duties will be more than 20 times higher and Cooking the books many in South Florida’s Cuban exile communi- too expensive for many residents to afford. ty can’t afford to spend much more. Cuba scholars struggle with official data Duties would jump to about $4.50/lb for most Already, many Cuban immigrants scrimp to whose numbers don’t add up ...... Page 6 shipments greater than about seven pounds. cover current costs of gifts and shipment. They Laptop computers would pay about 170 CUC tend to buy items slowly, and watch for sales at and a 32-inch flat screen TV about 200 CUC, discount outlets such as Marshalls, Target and ASCE papers shippers say. Navarro. And then they save up to pay shipping Leading Cuba experts present 45+ schol- That’s why many Cubans abroad are now fees that often run $4/lb or more. arly papers at Miami meet ...... Page 7 rushing to send goods to their families on the A typical 20-pound box containing a pair of island before the higher duties take effect. sneakers, a couple of pounds of coffee, a ham, One Miami shipper said he sent two cargo vitamins, clothes and bedding can cost $150 to Newsmakers planes through Cayman Islands to Cuba during buy — plus another $80 to ship. If they send the Professor Ted Henken becomes first non- a week in mid-July, instead of his usual one goods with human “mules” on charter flights for plane, as customers hurried to beat the dead- Cuban ever to lead ASCE ...... Page 8 See Cargo, page 14

Food exports dry up Midwestern drought threatens U.S. agri- Cuba scholars meet in Miami to assess culture shipments to Cuba ...... Page 9 real impact of Raúl’s economic reforms Special report: Oil BY LARRY LUXNER nomic changes Cuba has seen in half a century. Cuba’s petroleum industry takes a hit as f Cuba ever found offshore petroleum in ex- “The most visible change we’ve seen in Cuba is the rise of the cuentapropista. It’s been very Repsol announces pullout ...... Page 10 portable quantities, would the island one day Iresemble democratic, squeaky-clean Norway dramatic,” said Phil Peters of the Lexington In- stitute. “In the 1990s, it was seen as a necessary — or impoverished, corruption-ridden Nigeria? Tax code approved evil. Cuban officials held their noses when talk- Even without any huge oil discoveries, is the ing about it, because it had nothing to do with Cuba’s National Assembly passes new tax growth of Cuba’s economy in the first decade of the central goals of the government. Now it’s at law, other key measures ...... Page 13 the 21st century really sustainable? What about the center of the process. The licensing process prospects for economic reform under President is pretty open. It’s like night and day.” Raúl Castro — should Cuba follow the Chinese Watergate, JFK & Cuba Peters and other scholars presented 45 pap- model, the Vietnamese model or neither? ers during the event, and CubaNews is summari- Did Cuban exiles kill John Kennedy? Could These were only a few of the dozens of ques- zing their findings in a series of exclusive arti- Watergate offer any clues? ...... Page 15 tions raised by scholars at the 22nd annual con- cles running this month and next. ference of the Association of the Study of the In some ways, the conference marked a turn- Cuban Economy (ASCE). ing point for ASCE, which for the first time in its CubaNews (ISSN 1073-7715) is published monthly by CUBANEWS LLC. © 2012. All rights reserved. The Aug. 2-4 event — held at the Downtown history elected as its president someone with no Annual subscription: $398. Nonprofit organizations: Miami Hilton Hotel — attracted some 120 aca- family ties to Cuba: 40-year-old professor Ted $198. Printed edition is $100 extra. For editorial in- demics, Cuba experts, journalists and govern- Henken of New York’s Baruch College (see our quires, please call (305) 393-8760, fax your request ment officials eager to share their research in to (305) 670-2229 or email [email protected]. profile of Henken, page 8 of this issue). the midst of some of the most sweeping eco- See ASCE, page 3 2 CubaNews v August 2012 POLITICS Payá’s death: An accident, or state-sponsored murder? BY LARRY LUXNER The Cuban government insists it was, and traffic signs warning of the construction t was an unforgettably hot afternoon in there seems to be plenty of evidence to back ahead. The chief investigator, Capt. Jorge April 2003 when I went searching for up its claim. Three witnesses, including a Fonseca Mendoza, concluded that Carro- IOswaldo Payá’s house. It wasn’t hard to bicyclist and a tractor driver going in the mero hit the brakes 250 feet after his car went find. Located along Calle Peñón in Havana’s opposite direction, said they saw the Hyundai on the dirt and then slid for another 200 feet, crumbling Cerro district, it was the one under Accent carrying Payá and his friends lose “which confirms the extreme speed.” constant surveillance by the not-so-subtle sec- control and crash into a tree. Granma said Carromero and Swedish citi- ret police stationed just across the street. zen Jens Aron Modig — who had also been The agents — watching from park bench- WHO’S TELLING THE TRUTH? riding in the car — entered Cuba July 19 on es, pay phones and parked cars — took note Yet many Cubans, both on the island and tourist visas and, “in violation of their migra- of everyone entering or leaving the Payá resi- abroad, are deeply skeptical. tory status, got involved in clearly political dence. Less obvious were the video cameras They point out that Payá had been threat- activities contrary to the constitutional order.” monitoring the area 24 hours a day, looking ened in the past, and that last October, Laura Both men are tied to conservative political for anything suspicious. Pollan — founder of the Ladies in White, parties back in Europe that have actively op- “I can’t say that I sleep in peace,” the fam- which advocates the release of political pris- posed the Castro regime. They admit having ous dissident told me as we sat on the front oners — died in a Cuban hospital after a sud- porch, sipping lemonade. At least twice in the den respiratory illness. In both cases, the LARRY LUXNER

CubaNews spoke to dissident Oswaldo Payá at his Havana home on April 14, 2003; our interview appeared in the May 2003 issue. At right, map shows where Payá died as he traveled between the eastern Cuban cities of Las Tunas and Bayamo. months before our meeting, death threats had families suggested the possibility of foul play, brought €4,000 ($4,900) for Payá’s Christian been scrawled on his front door. “Sometimes though they presented no compelling proof. Liberation Movement. They also deny claims I ride my bicycle to work, and state security Angel Carromero, the 27-year-old Spaniard by Payá’s family that they were driven off the follows me with microphones to harass me. behind the wheel, “has been accused of the road by another vehicle. They can detain me at any moment.” charge of homicide while driving a vehicle on “No other vehicle hit us from behind,” In fact, a few minutes after leaving the public roads,” reported the Communist Party Carromero said in a videotaped statement to house, I realized my Hyundai rental car was newspaper Granma. Under Cuba’s penal code, authorities. “Simply, I was driving, saw a pot- being followed by state security. It was like a anyone convicted of violating traffic laws or hole and took the precaution of any driver, scene out of a B-grade spy movie from the rules resulting in the death of another can which is to brake lightly. The car lost control.” 1960s — and it took a good 20 minutes of face a jail sentence of up to 10 years. The crash killed Payá, 60, along with fellow maneuvers in the unfamiliar streets of Cerro Carromero has testified that he lost control dissident Harold Cepero, 31. Payá’s widow, to lose whoever was on my tail. of the car when it suddenly entered an un- Ofelia Acevedo, told Miami’s Spanish-lan- So when news broke July 22 of Payá’s death paved area of road under construction. He guage El Nuevo Herald she would keep push- on a lonely highway between Las Tunas and slammed on the brakes, causing it to skid and ing to meet with the Europeans in person to Bayamo, some 800 kms east of Havana, it was crash into a nearby tree (see map above). hear their version of the crash, because she with deep sadness that I recalled our pleasant An official inquiry by the Cuban govern- doesn’t trust the Castro regime’s story about meeting nine years ago. And I wondered: had ment found that Carromero had been travel- her husband’s death. this really been an accident? ing at 120 km/h (74 mph) and failed to heed See Payá, page 3 August 2012 v CubaNews 3 In his sermon at Havana’s Cementerio de a whole, which it deemed unacceptable. Payá — FROM PAGE 2 Colón, Ortega said Payá never strayed from Without a doubt, Payá’s views and tactics Neither do most Cuban exiles in South his religion for the sake of his “obvious politi- were guided by a sense of moderation. He Florida. Their immediate reaction was to cal vocation,” and that he supported the diffi- failed in his efforts — in alliance with figures accuse the Cuban government of having mur- cult task of being “a lay Christian with a polit- such as Dagoberto Valdés, former editor of dered him. They say a truck rammed Payá’s ical position completely faithful to his ideas the Catholic journal Vitral — to transform the car in an “extrajudicial execution” and hold without ever being unfaithful to the church.” church into a force against the Castro regime. the regime directly responsible for his death. The day after Payá’s death, Joaquín Roy, Payá’s struggle to gain recognition and sup- Elizardo Sánchez, a well-known human highly respected director of the University of port from the Vatican also failed; both John rights activist based in Havana, isn’t buying Miami’s European Union Center, wrote a long Paul II and Benedict XVI refused to meet him the official version either. analysis in Madrid’s El País newspaper in during their respective visits to Cuba. “We will not know all the truth until the sur- which he concludes that the execution theory Nor could he stop James Cason, former vivors can offer their own testimonies, in their “does not hold from a logical point of view.” chief of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana, own countries and without the pressure of the Indeed, such an execution would constitute from infiltrating and recruiting dozens of his Cuban government,” he said in a statement. sheer stupidity on the part of the Cuban followers — many of whom were finally It is significant that neither the Spanish nor regime, said Roy. “There would be only one arrested in a government crackdown in 2003 Swedish governments have accused Havana victim — in addition to Payá and his colleague that sent 75 dissidents to prison. of any wrongdoing; both have expressed their — and that victim would be none other than Amid criticism that Payá had become irrel- gratitude for the courtesies extended to their Raúl Castro himself,” he said. evant in recent years, his death nonetheless respective citizens while being investigated. has triggered an outpouring of sympathy both Due to Payá’s close ties with elements of PAYÁ’S LEGACY: THE VARELA PROJECT from within Cuba and overseas. the Cuban Catholic Church, his funeral was Despite all his activities, Payá had never “Cuba has suffered a dramatic loss in its presided over by Cardinal Jaime Ortega, arch- been arrested. His well-known Varela Project, present, and an irreplaceable absence in its bishop of Havana. Various dissident groups which earned him the EU’s Sakharov Award future,” wrote prominent dissident Yoani Sán- — including some who had criticized Payá’s in 2002, sought to force Cuba’s National chez wrote on her Generation Y blog. “The Varela Project in the past — tried to stage a Assembly to consider laws guaranteeing free- great lesson that [Payá] leaves us is equanim- demonstration during his funeral procession; dom of speech and other civil rights. ity, pacifism, ethics above differences, and the some 40 or 50 of them were briefly detained. But even after Payá managed to collect conviction that with civic action and legality, Notably, church officials didn’t support nearly 25,000 signatures, the National Assem- an inclusive Cuba is within our reach.” q either the so-called “execution theory” or the bly rejected his petition on the grounds that it Larry Luxner is editor of CubaNews. Domingo demonstration by frustrated dissidents. sought to do away with Cuba’s constitution as Amuchastegui contributed to this article. LARRY LUXNER

Antonio Gayoso, Joaquín Pujol, Luís R. Luís, Armando Linde and Jorge Pérez-López were among the many Cuba experts at ASCE’s Aug. 2-4 meeting in Miami. in the IMF and the Possible Role of Other In- access for the island’s products — particular- ASCE — FROM PAGE 1 ternational Institutions in Financing Sustain- ly those of agricultural origin which would not In a keynote speech, Harvard University able Economic Growth in Cuba.” compete with products grown in the U.S.” professor Jorge Domínguez addressed the Not all the papers had such long titles. Miami real-estate lawyer Antonio Zamora, issue “Can Cubans Rule Cuba?” by pointing “Trade and Agriculture” — presented joint- part-owner of CubaNews, gave a compelling out what he said was the weakening of the ly by legal experts Tim Ashby and Stephen talk on recent property reforms and their im- communist regime under Raúl. Kimmerling — looked at the implications of plications for hotel and marina investment. Domínguez said he respects enormously opening the U.S. market to imports of Cuban Retired IMF economist Armando Linde, in Raúl’s ability to take total responsibility for fruits, vegetables and other items that don’t a lengthy presentation that examines whether the failures of the Cuban economy but criti- compete with American farmers. Raúl Castro is serious about liberalizing the cized the “micromanagement” of the econo- Ashby held up as an example the African Cuban economy, concludes that he is not. my as spelled out in the newly promulgated Growth and Opportunity Act, signed into law “If Raúl is truly a reformer, then why were rules for self-employment. in 2000 by President Clinton. AGOA’s aim is the modest economic liberties put in place “For instance, this band can play this type to boost trade and investment opportunities during the Special Period rescinded as soon of music but not that one,” he said. “You’re for 38 sub-Saharan African countries. as the risks to the regime ended?” he asked. creating extraordinary uncertainty by saying “The United States has a history of provid- “How come Raúl waited six years from the you can engage in an activity, but that it can ing development assistance and trade access time he took over to launch with great fanfare be taken away. Why would you invest in Cuba to developing nations, particularly to its the so-called economic reforms?” under such circumstances?” neighbors in Latin America and the Carib- Linde’s conclusion: “I do not find the re- Among the papers presented at ASCE was bean,” he said. “A strong argument could be formist version complelling. It portrays Raúl one by retired IMF economist Joaquín Pujól made that the best means of assisting Cuba at as meek and submissive. To me, Raúl is a entitled “Cuba’s Membership Requirements minimal cost would be to implement trade grudging reformer at best.” q 4 CubaNews v August 2012 POLITICS Cruz likely to strengthen pro-embargo forces in Congress BY ANA RADELAT Díaz-Balart (R-FL), a leader of the pro-embar- rising star in the GOP and will be one of the afael “Ted” Cruz, the Tea Party-backed go lawmakers. “He’s a freedom fighter.” headline speakers at the Republican National Texas Republican likely to win a seat in Like fellow Cuban-American Sen. Marco Convention, set for Aug. 27-30 in Tampa. “When my Dad came to Austin in 1957 as a Rthe Senate, would boost Congressional Rubio (R-FL), the 41-year-old Cruz made his family history part of his campaign strategy. teenage immigrant from Cuba bound for the support for the U.S. embargo against Cuba. University of Texas, he spoke no English and “He’s super, super solid,” said Rep. Mario And also like Rubio, Cruz is considered a had $110 sewn into his underwear,” Cruz said at a campaign stop this summer. “He worked his way through school as a dishwasher mak- ing 50 cents an hour.” His father was at first a supporter of Fidel Castro, and was jailed and tortured by former dictator Fulgencio Batista’s government. But TED CRUZ CAMPAIGN later the elder Cruz opposed Castro “when he discovered he was a communist,” said the politician, who was born in Canada and whose mother is American-born. Cruz beat the Lone Star state’s mainstream Republican lieutentant-governor, David Dew- hurst, in an August runoff — despite the lat- ter’s vast personal wealth and backing by Texas Gov. Rick Perry — and is expected to defeat the Democratic candidate, Paul Sadler, in the Nov. 6 general election. A former Texas solicitor-general who won a Ted Cruz, a rising star in the GOP, would be the third Cuban-American in the Senate if elected on Nov. 6. key gun rights case, Cruz has never held an elected post. But he did secure the endorse- ments of former VP candidate Sarah Palin as Rivera takes losses on Cuba measures well as Tea Party leaders in Congress such as ep. David Rivera (R-FL), under the shad- would be “brushed aside” pretty quickly as Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Jim DeMint ow of a federal probe and facing re-elec- the House and Senate focus on bigger con- of South Carolina and Rand Paul of Kentucky. Rtion in a district that now has more cerns, such as how much money to cut from Other help came from the influential, con- Democrats than ever, is urging passage of leg- the Pentagon’s budget and which weapons servative Club for Growth, which spent $4 islation which would bar companies that trade systems to protect from those cuts. million on ads attacking Cruz’s rivals. with Cuba from winning Pentagon contracts. “It’s silly to think anyone would spend time But that wish is going up in smoke as Con- on something that would make the Pentagon’s CRUZ: TOP PRIORITY IS ‘DEFENDING LIBERTY’ gress races to finish work on other priorities. job harder,” he said. If elected, Cruz would be the third Cuban- Rivera’s amendment, included in the House Rivera’s office did not respond to requests American in the Senate, joining Rubio and defense authorization bill, would punish com- for comment. Bob Menendez (D-NJ). The House has three panies doing business with the four countries There’s some hope Congress will approve a Cuban exiles: Mario Díaz-Balart (R-FL), Ileana on the State Department list of state sponsors final defense authorization bill when lawmak- Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) and Albio Sires (D-NJ). of terrorism: Cuba, Iran, Sudan and Syria. ers return from their summer break in Sep- These Cuban-American lawmakers form a The legislation’s main target is Repsol SA, tember. But most analysts say a final bill won’t formidable, bipartisan group that has blocked the Spanish energy giant exploring for oil in be considered until the lame duck session of any opening to Cuba in Congress. Cuba’s Gulf of Mexico waters; it also has $30 Congress convenes after the Nov. 6 elections. Unlike the others, however, Cruz does not million in Pentagon contracts. After drilling a That would allow Rivera to campaign on his have a large exile constituency and hasn’t tak- couple of dry wells, Repsol announced it will amendment right up until Election Day. en a hard line against Cuba during his cam- leave Cuba (see story, page 10 of this issue). Rivera may also stump on two other Cuba- paign, even though he supports the embargo. It doesn’t matter. Rivera hopes for success related bills he’s introduced that also aren’t Instead, the Cruz platform centered on on anti-Cuba legislation to excite exiles whose expected to go anywhere this Congress. promises to slash taxes and shrink the reach votes he need to keep his seat in Congress. One would prohibit the federal government of the federal government. “My number one Sen. Joe Lieberman, a Connecticut inde- from giving medical aid or cash to any Cuban priority is fighting to defend individual liberty pendent and senior member of the Senate immigrant who returns to Cuba to visit family. and free-market principles,” Cruz said. Armed Services Committee, says Rivera’s leg- Another would require immigrants to remain John Kavulich, president of the U.S.-Cuba islation is doomed. A final defense authoriza- in the United States for five years, instead of Trade & Economic Council, said Cruz’s pres- tion bill has not been negotiated between the one, to earn permanent residency status. ence in the Senate could prompt development Senate and the House. Rivera will face the winner of an Aug. 14 of a “Cuba Caucus” that may also include De- But if that final bill contains Rivera’s provi- Democratic primary, most likely Joe García or mocrats Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey and sion, Lieberman said it would be filibustered Gloria Romero Roses. Bill Nelson of Florida, if he wins re-election. by any one of several Senate Democrats; the That race might be tough, though. Rivera Kavulich predicted Cruz “will be dragged GOP would need at least 60 votes to break it. has been dogged by an ethics investigation into issues that relate to Cuba, but he won’t be “I would support it, but my guess is, Senate since his days in the Florida House, and his that aggressive” — mainly because Texas food opposition to it is so strong I don’t think you newly redrawn congressional district is now companies sell millions in exports to Cuba. q can get 60 votes to support it,” he said. home to 50,000 liberal-leaning voters in Washington-based journalist Ana Radelat has A Democratic aide on the Senate Armed Monroe County, which includes Key West. been covering Cuba-related issues on Capitol Hill Services Committee said Rivera’s measure – ANA RADELAT for CubaNews since the newsletter’s birth in 1993. August 2012 v CubaNews 5 POLITICAL BRIEFS OFAC SETTLES 14-YEAR-OLD TRAVEL BAN DISPUTE In their own words … A New York man agreed July 24 to pay a $6,500 fine to settle a long-running dispute with the U.S. “Any day they want, the table is set. This has already been said through diplomatic Treasury Department over an unauthorized trip channels. If they want to talk, we will talk, but we are nobody’s colony, nobody’s puppet.” he made to Cuba 14 years ago, Reuters reported. — Cuban President Raúl Castro, in a July 26 message to the United States that no Zachary Sanders, now 38, said he was 23 and topic is off the discussion table. had been living and teaching English in Mexico when he decided to visit Cuba on a tourist visa “Our message is very clear to the Castro government: They need to begin to for a couple of weeks in 1998. allow for the political freedom of expression that the Cuban people demand, and “I wanted to learn about how a socialist coun- we are prepared to discuss with them how this can be furthered.” try worked in practice,” Sanders said in an inter- — view. “I had no illusions. ... I’m not like some State Department spokesman Mike Hammer, in a July 27 response to Raúl’s offer. diehard supporter of the[(Cuban] government or anything like that." “If we think engagement works well with China, well, it ought to work well Sanders didn’t get the required U.S. Treasury with Cuba. The embargo doesn’t work. It is a failed policy. It was probably justi- license to visit Cuba, and a U.S. Customs agent fied when the Soviet Union existed and posed a threat through Cuba. I think it’s became suspicious when Sanders returned to the become more of a crutch for Castro to use to repress his people.” United States through the Bahamas without — Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney’s newly announced running-mate, in a 2002 interview with declaring that he had been to Cuba. The agent the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Surprise: Ryan says he now supports the embargo. also seized an undeclared box of Cuban cigars from Sanders’ luggage. “They have been rolling things out one by one on a slow but steady timetable Two years later, Sanders received a letter from that goes to 2015. My guess is they will continue to do so. Now they are getting Treasury asking for details of his Cuba expenses. to the things that really have the ability to increase the size of the private sector He said he was scared, had lost the receipts and and create the savings in the state sector that they say are their targets.” missed the deadline to return the form. In 1998, — Phil Peters, Cuba analyst at the Lexington Institute, commenting July 26 in a OFAC fined Sanders $1,000 in penalties. Reuters piece by Marc Frank on the pace of economic reforms announced by Raúl.

RUSSIA DENIES IT PLANS MILITARY BASE IN CUBA “The artists were banned because they were making statements against Cuba. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the Things have changed. Something has changed in the Party. I think there’s new news agency RIA Novosti his country has no flexibility with culture.” plans to build a military base in Cuba — calling — Cuban journalist Remy Martínez, in a conversation with the BBC. that idea “out of the question” only two days after Russia’s navy chief said it’s talking to Cuba about “Payá gave decades of his life to the nonviolent struggle for freedom and dem- housing Russian navy ships, and considering ocratic reform in Cuba. He remained optimistic until the end that the country he Vietnam and the Indian Ocean nation of loved would see a peaceful and democratic transition.” Seychelles as possible naval hubs as well. — The denial followed a statemtent to that same White House spokesman Jay Carney, on the tragic death of Oswaldo Payá. agency by Vice Admiral Viktor Chirkov that Russia is in talks about setting up maintenance “Tuesday’s events follow the pattern of short-term detentions and imprison- and supply facilities for Russian ships in those ments we’ve seen the Cuban authorities carry out time and again as a form of countries but wouldn’t give any further details. intimidation against dissidents and human rights activists.” Moscow’s only existing naval base outside the — Gerardo Ducos, Amnesty International’s Cuba researcher, following the rounding up former USSR is located in the Syrian port of Tar- of 40 to 50 dissidents who tried to protest at Oswaldo Payá’s funeral procession. tus. A squadron of Russian navy ships, including several assault ships carrying marines, is heading “The Castro and Assad governments are undeniably repressive. It is important to Tartus in a show of support for a longtime ally. that Florida taxpayers do not support dictators that suppress freedom.” — Florida Gov. Rick Scott, in announcing that his state will appeal a U.S. court order RADIO BAN ON BLACKLISTED MUSICIANS IS LIFTED blocking enforcement of a new Florida law that bans government agencies from sign- After a five-decade-long absence, Celia Cruz ing contracts worth $1 million or more with companies that do business with Cuba. may return to Cuban airwaves, thanks to the lift- ing of a ban on anti-Castro musicians. “Regardless of attempts by the Castro regime to ignore the cholera outbreak, Though the communist authorities don’t admit there is no denying that cholera is spreading throughout Cuba. This is a serious it, for about 50 years state radio stations have health problem for Cubans, but also for the U.S. because of the heavy stream of blacklisted musicians who abandoned Fidel travelers between both nations. The Cuban regime is secretive, deceitful and Castro’s 1959 Revolution, the BBC reports. uncooperative with international health officials. Lives have already been lost in The apparent change comes amid Cuba’s cau- Cuba because of the regime’s policy of keeping these issues in the dark, so as to tious attempts under head of state Raúl Castro to not scare away tourists and their hard currencies.” liberalize its state-controlled economy. — Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, on the Radio station operators say blacklists included cholera epidemic that has sickened 158 people and killed three in Granma province. some 50 artists before the prohibition was over- turned, according to the BBC. “After all the good things the Revolution has accomplished, it is a shame that Ironically, the list of artists banned from state they are now ruining the country and making people’s lives miserable.” radio included Celia Cruz — Cuba’s most inter- — nationally famous artist. Carmen, a nurse who boosts her salary of 500 pesos a month by selling linens and Known as the “Queen of Salsa,” Cruz got her towels from Ecuador and Miami. She was asked by Reuters what she thought first break in 1950, when she joined La Sonora about the Castro regime’s new customs fees on imported merchandise. Matancera, one of Cuba’s most popular orches- tras and a regular at Havana’s Tropicana club. 6 CubaNews v August 2012 SPECIAL REPORT: ASCE Experts: So far, Raúl’s reforms not enough to boost income BY DOREEN HEMLOCK ASCE, cited a recent study by University of don’t meet the definition of co-ops established o move its economy forward, Cuba is Havana researcher Camila Pineiro found that by the International Cooperative Alliance any- 67% of those licensed as self-employed had cautiously expanding self-employment way, said Gayoso. They’re not autonomous, T most recently been unemployed, meaning voluntary, jointly owned or democratically and cooperatives, but its efforts up until they likely hustled in underground activities. now have been too timid to raise living stan- controlled. Cuban farm co-ops tend to be Pineiro’s research showed that only 17% of “state farms with a cute name,” he said. dards for the island’s 11.2 million residents. the self-employed had either been laid off or Havana has yet to embrace the “R” word To succeed as true co-ops, the groups need retired from government jobs. autonomy to produce what they want, sell (reform) or the “P” word (privatization), pre- That low 17% figure suggests that micro- ferring to use such terms as “actualization” or where they want, set prices on their goods businesses won’t easily be able to absorb the and take other decisions among their mem- “non-state enterprises.” That language sug- one million or more workers that the Cuban gests resistance to broader adjustments need- bers. But the government seems unlikely to government aims to shed from state payrolls offer that autonomy for co-ops to flourish, said ed to energize economic growth, academics this decade. said during the annual Association for the Gayoso, given that communist officials have Study of the Cuban Economy (ASCE) confer- already warned Cuba’s inhabitants against CUBAN COOPERATIVES NEED MORE AUTONOMY “accumulating wealth.” ence in Miami. That’s especially true when the number of In authorizing individuals to establish Beyond co-ops, Cuba might consider other self-employed seems to have hit a plateau in growth options in the sphere of the “social microbusinesses, for example, the Cuban recent months, and when bureaucrats resist- government published a list of 181 activities and solidarity economy,” which spans non- ant to change have been cracking down on profits, microcredit, co-ops and other forms of that are allowed — rather than a list of what’s some businesses, said Henken. explicitly banned. Cuban cooperatives also face limits to ab- socially responsible enterprise, said Julia “There’s still a sense of control, a mentality sorb large numbers of state workers, said Sagebien of Canada’s Dalhousie University. of distrust,” said sociologist Ted Henken of agricultural economist Antonio Gayoso, for- She’s been helping bring social-enterprise New York City’s Baruch College. “They really mer executive director of the World Council practitioners and experts to Cuba to share don’t want to let go of control.” of Credit Unions. their experiences. Henken, the newly elected president of So-called cooperatives in Cuba generally See Reforms, page 7 Economists struggle with incomplete, often flawed data ere’s a dilemma in analyzing Cuba’s higher than 2.5%, said Pérez-López. data considers only earnings from the formal economy: To understand the dynamics, Indeed, CEPAL estimates that Cuba’s offi- sector, not the underground market. And it Hyou need good data. But data on Cuba cial unemployment rate of 7.7% would actually measures only wages paid in Cuban pesos, is sparse and sometimes inaccurate, making it have been 19% in 1991, when the Soviet Union not payments in Cuba’s dollar-like currency. tough to pinpoint the scope of change. Many employers now pay in the higher-value That was a key conclusion from an econo- convertible peso to motivate workers. mic measurement panel held Aug. 4 during Still, it’s hard to measure how much aver- the 22nd annual conference of the Associa- ages wages are underestimated, he said, tion for the Study of the Cuban Economy. “because data on wage payments in convert- Jorge Perez-Lopez identified measurement ible pesos is not available.” problems in studying Cuba’s labor market. Measurements of Cuba’s economic output He said Cuba’s government statistics suggest also raise concerns. Official government data a robust labor market, typically associated shows that about two-thirds of the country’s with a fast-growing economy. But visitors activity comes from services, including med- describe something else: an island where ical missions sent overseas. many people lack full-time work and hustle. Cuba’s dual-currency system helps Havana For example, Cuba’s official statistics says overstate the value of those services, some the unemployment rate averaged 2.5% in paid in hard currency or with oil. If Cuba 2010. That’s the lowest rate in Latin America, adopted a single currency, the value of those and roughly one-third the regional average services and total economic output might fall. that year, according to data provided to the By one rough estimate, the country’s total UN Economic Commission for Latin America output for 2008 would be closer to $38 billion and the Caribbean (CEPAL). than the $70 billion Havana reported, said But that 2.5% rate masks many obvious real- Gabriel di Bella, an Argentine working with ities. For example, he said, by counting only the International Monetary Fund. those looking for work, it excludes those who So, what’s an analyst studying Cuba to do? want a job but don’t sign up at a municipal job Attendees gave these tips: Seek out as much placement office to avoid being assigned as a data as possible from varied sources. Try to farm laborer, often far from their home and in put the data in a broader context. tough conditions. Look for qualitative information, not just The low rate also fails to count hundreds of numbers. And recognize the limitations of thousands of government employees who measurement. In studying Cuba, said consult- hardly work. President Raúl Castro and other collapsed, if not for the bloated state payroll, ant Maria Werlau, “it’s important to take into officials have estimated state payrolls are he said (see chart below). consideration that the data we’re using may bloated by at least 1 million people, meaning Cuba’s government data also undercounts be very flawed.” that real unemployment should be much average wages, said Pérez-López. The wage – DOREEN HEMLOCK August 2012 v CubaNews 7 SPECIAL REPORT: ASCE Scholars present 45 papers at ASCE’s Miami conference o less than 45 scholarly papers were revista de la Arquidiócesis de La Habana. College, Columbia University, and Richard presented during the Association for 20. “Malling Havana,” Joseph L. Scarpaci, Sicotte, University of Vermont. Nthe Study of the Cuban Economy’s West Liberty University. 38. “The 1950 Midterm Elections: Cuba’s 22nd annual meeting, held Aug. 2-4 in Miami. 21. “Market Orientation and Business Per- Last Democratic Poll,” Ilan Ehrlich, Bergen Here’s an alphabetical listing of those papers: formance in Cuban Firms: A Comparative Community College, Paramus, N.J. 1. “A Viewer’s Guide to Cuba’s Economic Analysis of State-Owned Versus Joint-Venture 39. “The Impact of Cuba’s New Real Estate Reform,” Phillip Peters, Lexington Institute. Cuban Firms,” Julio Cerviño, Universidad Laws on the Island and the Diaspora,” 2. “Access to Human Health, Freedoms and Carlos III, Madrid. Antonio Zamora, Cuba Portal LLC. Other Components of Living and Develop- 22. “Monetary and Exchange Rate Reform 40. “Trade and Agriculture,” Tim Ashby, ment in Cuba,” Rodolfo Stusser, M.D. in Cuba: Lessons from Vietnam,” Pavel Vidal, Federal Regulatory Compliance Services 3. “Cooperatives or Collectives: Impli- Centro de Estudios de la Economía Cubana. LLC, and Stephen Kimmerling, Morgan cations and Ultimate Impact of Cuban 23. “Oil and Democracy in Cuba: Is Cuba Lewis & Backius LLP. Government Decisions,” Antonio Gayoso, Going Toward Nigeria or Toward Nor- 41. “Una aproximación histórica a las rela- George Washington University. way?” Roger Betancourt. ciones actuales entre la Iglesia Católica y el 4. “Cuba 2012: The Likely End 24. “One Hundred Fifty Years estado cubano,” Javier Figueroa, Universidad of Soft Reforms in Hard of Bacardi: From Local In- de Puerto Rico, Río Piedras. Times,” Rolando Castañeda, dustry to Multinational Cor- 42. “U.S. Food and Agricultural Exports to Inter-American Develop- poration,” Manuel Jorge Cuba: Progress, Problems and Prospects,” ment Bank (retired). Cutillas, former chief ex- Bill Messina, University of Florida. 5. “Cuba: External ecutive, Bacardi Ltd. 43. “Venezuela: Economic Situation in 2012 Cash Flow, Barter Trade 25. “Organizing Cu- and Its Immediate Prospects,” Rolando Casta- and Potential Shocks,” ban Economic Enterpri- ñeda, Inter-American Development Bank. Luís R. Luís, Investment ses in the Wake of the 44. “Where is Cuba Going? Perspectives Management. Lineamientos,” Larry from the Island and the Middle East,” Juan 6. “Cuba’s Membership Catá-Backer, Pennsylva- Tomás Sánchez, Cuban Sugar Cane Growers Requirements in the IMF nia State University. in Exile. and the Possible Role of 26. “Out of the Under- 45. “Why is Biotechnology a Crown Jewel Other IFIs in Financing ground? Comparing Self-Em- Yet Cubans Can’t Get a Prescription Filled?” Sustainable Economic Growth in ployment Regulations in Cuba Elaine Scheye, The Scheye Group Ltd. q Cuba,” Joaquín P. Pujol, IMF (retired). Under Fidel (1993-2006) and Raúl (2006-12),” Ted Henken, Baruch College. 7. “Cuba’s Tourism Outcomes Through For a CD-ROM containing the text of these 2012,” José Perelló, University of Havana. 27. “Political Intolerance and Cuba’s 8. “Cuban Household Consumption: An Future: To Hell in a Handbasket,” Jorge Luís academic papers, please contact Rafael Rom- Update,” Luís Locay, University of Miami. Romeu, Syracuse University. eu, Association for the Study of the Cuban 9. “Cuban Labor Market Statistics: 28. “Prospects for Reforms in Cuba: Is Raúl Economy. Details: ASCE, PO Box 28267, Availability and Interpretation,” Jorge Pérez- Castro Serious About Liberalizing the Washington, DC 20038-8267. Tel: (703) 917- López, Fair Labor Association. Economy?” Armando Linde, IMF (retired). 0842. Email: [email protected]. URL: 10. “Cuban Platform Fisheries: Collapse or 29. “Reaching Out: Cuba’s New Economy www.ascecuba.org. Recovery?” Sergio Díaz-Briquets, NTS and the International Response,” Richard Consulting Ltd. Feinberg, University of California San Diego. 11. “Cubans: An Epic Journey — Génesis 30. “Reforms of Cuban Laws: Gradualism Reforms — FROM PAGE 6 de un libro,” Guillermo Martínez. — Sin prisa pero sin pausa,” Rolando Anillo, Still, social enterprises tend to be “bottom- 12. “Does Cuba Share Responsibility for Fowler Rodríguez Valdes-Fauli LLP. up” ventures, which require the government Human Rights at Guantánamo Bay?” Michael 31. “Rentismo y petróleo entre Cuba y to largely back out, Sagebien said. Cuba’s J. Strauss, Centre d’Etudes Diplomatiques et Venezuela,” Carlos A. Romero, Universidad communist regime has been mainly “top- Stratégiques, Paris. Central de Venezuela. down” in its economic management, she said. 13. “El crecimiento de la Iglesia Protestante y 32. “Strange Bedfellows: Can Non-State En- Cuba has a history of “bottom-up” ventures la libertad de religión,” Teo A. Babún Jr., terprises be the Champions of a Social to draw from, including mutual aid societies ECHOcuba. Economy in Cuba?” Julia Sagebien, Dalhousie like Centro Gallego and Centro Asturiana, 14. “Fiscal and Structural Policies Twenty University, Halifax, and Paolo Spadoni, which helped immigrants from their respec- Years After Transition,” Gabriel DiBella, Tulane University, New Orleans. tive regions in Spain to acclimate in Cuba in Rafael Romeu and Andy Wolfe, IMF. 33. “The Contributions of the Cuban pre-communist times, said University of 15. “Food Consumption in Cuba: 1961- Diaspora in Business and Finance,” Leonardo Miami economics professor Luís Locay. 2010,” Bryan Roberts. Rodríguez, Florida International University. Yet “bottom-up” ventures mean trimming 16. “From Chaos to a Socialist Market Eco- 34. “The Fiscal Sustainability of Aging “top-down” control,” and both the Castro nomy: A Contribution to the Understanding of Costs and Demographic Change in Cuba,” regime and its bureaucrats remain cautious Current Changes and Developments in Gabriel DiBella, Rafael Romeu and Andy about handing power over to individuals, said Cuba,” Domingo Amuchastegui, Cuban Wolfe, IMF. Felipe Manteiga, who leads FM Development Ministry of Foreign Affairs (retired). 35. “The Future of the City of Havana: An Management, a Virginia consulting firm. 17. “Habana Art as Propaganda,” Dawn Economic Dimension,” Jorge Sanguinetty, Henken said one indicator to watch in Gable, George Washington University. Devtech Systems Inc. Cuba’s “actualization” is the extent to which 18. “La agricultura cubana y el actual proce- 36. “The Growth of the Cuban Economy in the government lets the self-employed form so de trasformaciones economícas,” Armando the First Decade of the XXI Century,” Ernesto microenterprises and then grow the ventures Nova, Centro de Estudios de la Economía Hernández-Cata, IMF (retired). to small businesses and mid-sized companies. Cubana, Havana. 37. “The Interwar Shocks to U.S.-Cuban “This is not going to work,” said Henken, 19. Trade Relations: A View Through Sugar “La Iglesia como puente de acercamien- “unless it’s a step in a reform process.” q to,” Orlando Márquez, editor, Palabra Nueva, Company Stock Prices,” Alan Dye, Barnard 8 CubaNews v August 2012 SPECIAL REPORT: ASCE AGRICULTURE BRIEFS LOW WATER LEVELS SLOW RIVER BARGE TRAFFIC Water levels along the 2,300-mile Mississippi ASCE’s Ted Henken outlines objectives River have plunged due to the ongoing U.S. BY DOREEN HEMLOCK Romeu said the moves have been a con- drought — causing problems for farmers as far e’s the first president of the Association scious decision “not fall into the gerontocracy north as Minnesota and North Dakota. for the Study of the Cuban Economy trap that Cuba, for example, is in.” With levels as low as 15 feet below normal at Hwho is neither Cuban-American nor an Indeed, the 40-year-old Henken embodies St. Louis, 17 feet below normal at Memphis economic specialist. How did sociologist and the new generation he seeks. Born in Pensa- and 21 feet below normal at Vicksburg, Miss., blogger Ted Henken pull that off? cola, Fla., Henken mastered Spanish while portions of the river are narrow enough to only Credit broad-mindedness, a love of hands- working as an English teacher in Ecuador. allow one-way barge and shipping traffic. on learning and a gift for collaboration, asso- He took an interest in Cuba in 1995 doing Meteorologists expect that problem to linger ciates say. for some time, since there are no forecasts of Those traits are evident in the numerous significant rainfall in the Upper Mississippi books Henken is now working on: one with regions until summer’s end. Canada’s Archibald Ritter on Cuba’s self- “About 60% of all U.S. grains and oilseed employed; another with a social-media expert exports are shipped via the Mississippi River,” in Spain on Cuba’s blogosphere, and all the DOREEN HEMLOCK said researcher Su Ye of the Minnesota Depart- while, co-editing and translating a Cuba ment of Agriculture. “Lower water levels will primer written by Cubans on the island, definitely slow transportation and exports to including economist Oscar Espinosa Chepe many international markets, including Cuba.” and blogger Yoani Sánchez. Yu estimated her state’s agricultural ship- Henken, profiled in the January 2010 issue ments to Cuba at $34 million in 2009 and $23 of CubaNews, took the helm of ASCE on Aug. million in both 2010 and 2011. 4 for a two-year term. He teaches at City Pat Wallesen, managing partner at WestStar University of New York’s Baruch College and Foods Co. in Corpus Christi, Tex. (and a major chairs its Department of Black and Hispanic exporter of dry beans to Cuba), is less con- Studies. cerned about the Mississippi — not only He pledges to open the association further because his port is nowhere near the river, but to scholars who neither specialize in Cuba nor because he says there are other ways to ship economics, but can bring new insights to agricultural goods to Cuba. understand Cuba’s changing social economy. “I know it won’t have any impact on ship- ASCE started in 1990 when a group of ments of dry beans,” Wallesen told CubaNews. mainly Cuban-American economists got “Most any export terminal can receive grain by together in the Washington, D.C., area. They rail as well. Smaller crops are less reliant on barge shipments. Of course, barge is cheaper aimed to foster research into ways Cuba Ted Henken is ASCE’s first non-Cuban president. might cope after the collapse of the Soviet than rail, so this will be an added cost if Union and loss of generous Soviet subsidies. work for Catholic Social Services in Mobile, shipped by rail rather than barge.” The group grew to about 300 members in Ala. His job: to help dozens of Cuban rafters C. Parr Rosson III, a professor at Texas the late 1990s as Cuba revamped its economy. who’d been picked up at sea and housed at A&M University, agrees that U.S. food com- But as Havana’s reforms cooled, so did U.S. Naval Base at Guantánamo Bay for even- modities will still find their way to Cuba, tual resettlement in the United States. regardless of the Mississippi River. membership. Some early members also “I believe river disruptions will affect corn, retired. Today, membership stands at about Henken first visited Cuba in 1997 as a grad- uate student at Tulane University in New soybeans and some frozen chicken shipments,” 150, Henken said in an interview in Miami. he said. “How much and for how long is diffi- The challenge now, he told CubaNews, is to Orleans, and has returned at least 15 times since then. He earned his doctorate in Latin cult to estimate. If the disruption is prolonged, bring in a new generation of scholars to sus- then it’s likely cargo will switch to truck for tain the organization and its research. American studies with a dissertation on Cuba’s self-employed, who at that time were some short hauls and rail for longer hauls. I Henken is optimistic, based on a wide defini- don’t think shipments will stop, but there could tion of Cuba’s social economy, spanning “condemned to informality,” he said. Henken is drawn to Cuba’s entrepreneurs, be delays, diversions and temporary stoppages everything from entrepreneurship to the that would result in some shortages in Cuba.” ways ideas are exchanged. he said, “because even though you can’t build an entire economy on them, the mom-and-pop Outgoing ASCE President Rafael Romeu, ISRAELIS PULL OUT OF CUBA CITRUS VENTURE an economist at the IMF, said Henken repre- store contains in it a practical and ideological riddle.” For Cuban communist stalwarts, the Published reports in Israel suggest that Tel sents the latest step in an ongoing modern- Aviv-based Grupo BM, which since the 1990s ization of the group. ASCE recently has updat- self-employed are both hated and needed. “It’s kind of like the United States with immi- has helped Cuba dramatically boost citrus ex- ed its website, joined Facebook and Twitter ports to Western Europe, is leaving the island. and started a travel fund for Cuba scholars. grants,” said the slim guayabera-clad scholar, sliding into one of his easy smiles. BM is headed by 85-year-old Rafi Eitan, a Henken first came across ASCE in 1999 at a former Mossad spy chief who later became a politician and businessman. Despite the lack library while doing research and has attended CURRENT OFFICERS OF ASCE of diplomatic ties between Israel and Cuba, President: Ted Henken nearly all of its summer conferences since Eitan managed to secure a deal to develop the Vice-President: Rafael Romeu then. While some elders in the group have not vast Jagüey Grande citrus operation in Matan- Treasurer: Geni Gómez wanted — or been able — to visit their Cuban zas province, which now ranks as the island’s homeland, Henken said he’s always felt “not Board of Directors: Ramón Barquin III, largest (see CubaNews, June 2002, page 10). Rolando H. Castañeda, Antonio Gayoso, only welcome but appreciated” in an organiza- No further information is available at this tion that values research, not ideology. Geni Gómez, Mario González-Corso, Luís q time on Grupo BM, though it’s clear that Cu- R. Luís, Ernesto Hernández-Cata, Helena Doreen Hemlock, former Havana bureau chief ban citrus exports are in steep decline — a Solo-Gabrielle, Carlos Seigle, Maria Werlau. and now business writer at the South Florida Sun- victim of the same greening disease that also Sentinel, is a regular contributor to CubaNews. threatens Florida’s citrus industry. August 2012 v CubaNews 9 FOREIGN TRADE Midwest drought further threatens U.S. food sales to Cuba BY VITO ECHEVARRÍA birds, I believe the price of U.S. dark meat more expensive than from the U.S., because he extreme drought plaguing the Amer- chicken cuts vs. Brazilian whole bird prices of the distances involved,” said University of ican heartland has crippled production will remain largely tilted in favor of the U.S. Florida agriculture expert Bill Messina Jr. Tof corn, soybeans and wheat — all com- product on a per-kilo basis, albeit at a some- “Now if Argentina were to offer Cuba cred- modities favored by Cuban state purchasing what higher per-unit price,” he said. “Both it, that could change the dynamic,” he told agency Alimport for distribution among the CubaNews. “Corn purchases have represented island’s 11.2 million inhabitants. about 40% of Cuba’s total food and agricultur- According to Bloomberg News, the U.S. al purchases from the U.S. over the last few corn harvest is projected to fall to 11.8 billion years, so the issue is potentially significant in bushels (about 300 million metric tons) this terms of overall U.S. exports to Cuba.” year. Given that the United States exports Messina added: “Cuba will probably con- more than half its corn, a significant reduc- tinue to import some corn from us because tion won’t only crimp availability for overseas we’re close and reasonably competitive — but markets but will also force up prices for any every time the USDA comes up with another processed foods that use corn or corn syrup. estimate of production this year, the number Since feed corn is used to raise chickens, keeps falling. With prices going up, I don’t prices for frozen chicken — another leading know how much they’ll be able to afford.” U.S. export to Cuba — will also go up while supplies dwindle. SOYBEAN FARMERS CAN’T COMPETE WITH BRAZIL The USDA has reduced estimates for 4th- The Illinois Soybean Association, which vis- quarter 2012 broiler chicken production by 50 ited Havana last May, already acknowledges million lbs, while the 2013 estimate was low- that Brazil’s flexible trade policies are making ered by 400 million lbs to 37.1 billion lbs. U.S. soybeans less competitive in Cuba. Meanwhile, soybean futures are at record Doug Winter, the association’s treasurer, highs. The Chicago Board of Trade reports notes that Brazil extends Cuba a 60-day line of November 2012 prices rose 1.8% in mid-July credit, which puts U.S. soybean producers at a to $16.49 per bushel, eclipsing the previous disadvantage, due to a requirement under the record of $16.37/bushel set in July 2008. 2000 Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Whether Cuba’s Alimport will turn else- Enhancement Act (TSRA) that Alimport buy where for cheaper food is a matter of dispute. from U.S. exporters on a cash-only basis. “If the total supply [of corn and soybeans] “Prepaying for ag products can really put a available in the U.S. decreases substantially, business in a difficult cash-flow situation,” as expected, then the world price for these said Winter, speaking to the agribusiness pub- lication FarmProgress.com following his commodities will also tend to rise, to meet the countries’ prices will probably rise to some demand from countries unable to secure suf- group’s return from Havana. This is why the extent, in response to worldwide and domes- ISA is promoting Cuba’s inclusion in the ficient supplies in the United States,” said tic demand, but the price relation between the Larry Lieberman, president of Boston Agrex Export Credit Guarantee program and other Inc., a longtime exporter of frozen chickens two will probably be fairly normal, and there- U.S. government credit initiatives. and other commodities to Cuba that is based fore the U.S. dark meat cuts will still be the The line of credit Winter referred to is the in Norwell, MA. “This will therefore tend to better value on a per-kilo basis.” $400 million in financing that Brazilian reflect in the price of these products in Brazil, Rising prices, however, may force Alimport President Dilma Rousseff announced for and therefore raise the input costs for to buy less imported food altogether, regard- Cuba during her January 2012 visit to Havana. Brazilian producers as well.” less of the source. A potential wild card for Assuming Alimport isn’t doing this already, it In the end, Lieberman told CubaNews, Al- future U.S. agricultural sales to Cuba is other may use that credit line to buy more Brazilian import will stick with U.S. chicken suppliers. countries’ ability to provide credit. corn and soybeans — at the expense of U.S. “While it may be that a fairly marginal per- “Argentina is the world’s second-largest suppliers — later this year. centage of total buying by Cuba of U.S. dark corn exporter, but shipping costs for smallish Once U.S. corn becomes too pricey for meat chicken may shift to Brazilian whole volumes of corn from there to Cuba is much Cuba, President Raúl Castro and Alimport officials may find themselves flying to Buenos Aires in the near future to negotiate a larger corn purchase from Argentine President Cristina Fernández — on credit, of course. The U.S. Grains Council, another trade group that laments the “cash-only” terms of www.fotosearch.com Washington’s food trade with Havana, said Cuba purchased 22% of its corn imports from Argentina, and 21% from Brazil, in 2011 — numbers likely to rise this year. USGC’s regional director for Latin America, Kurt Shultz, says “although the U.S. still main- tains over 50% of the market, the cash- strapped[Cubans] are looking to U.S. competi- tors in the South for their feed grain needs.” q Vito Echevarria, a New York-based freelance journalist, writes regularly for CubaNews about Crops wilt in a heat-scorched Illinois cornfield. The continuing U.S. drought could shrivel exports to Cuba. business, e-commerce, the arts and entertainment. 10 CubaNews v August 2012 ENERGY Third dry well dashes Cuba’s hopes for oil independence BY LARRY LUXNER tions after its Jagüey-1 well came up dry at a Piñón warned, “it’ll take foreign companies onths of anticipation have turned into depth of 15,750 feet (4,800 meters). That well- another 3-5 years to find a semi-submersible despair following the admission by site was located 22 miles north of Havana, and that meets the regulations of the embargo.” MCuba’s state oil company Cubapetró- 55-60 miles south of Key West, Fla. He was referring to the fact that it was spe- leo (Cupet) that its Malaysian joint-venture The Catoche-1 well, completed by Petronas cifically built in China to comply with U.S. partner, Petronas, had failed to find significant on July 31, had been drilled west of Havana in laws which stipulate that such equipment may quantities of petroleum after exploratory 7,408 feet (2,258 meters) of water. Both com- consist of no more than 10% U.S. content. drilling off the island’s Gulf of Mexico coast. panies had used the semisubmersible Scara-- There’s no question that oil prospecting is a Cupet revealed Aug. 6 that the deepwater beo 9 — a 53,000-ton rig that costs roughly trial-and-error endeavor, where a hit comes well drilled by Petronas in partnership with $511,000 a day to operate. usually after several costly failures, especially Russia’s Gazprom Neft had discovered hydro- That rig now passes to Venezuelan state oil in territories of such intricate geologic struc- carbons, but in a geological formation that monopoly PDVSA, which plans to drill an ex- ture as in Cuba’s northwestern shoreline. was too tightly compacted for oil and gas to ploratory well off Cabo San Antonio, at Cuba’s “Few people know this, but last year, 36% of flow through it. westernmost tip. It’ll likely remain in Cuban all U.S. exploratory wells were dry holes,” “It cannot be qualified as a commercial dis- waters until October or November, Piñón said Piñón. “So the industry — particularly in new frontier areas like Cuba — still experi- covery,” the company said in a terse said, then head for its next destination: Brazil. announcement published by the Communist Once the Scarabeo 9 exits Cuban waters, See Oil, page 11 Party newspaper Granma. Energy expert Jorge Piñón told CubaNews he was taken aback by the revelation. “I am surprised that will all the advanced technological experience of these companies, that they have not found oil,” he said. “These aren’t ‘Mickey Mouse’ firms. They’re experi- enced international energy conglomerates.” Piñón, a University of Texas researcher who’s studied Cuba’s energy sector for years, estimates that foreign oil giants have poured over $250 million into petroleum exploration of Cuba’s waters since December 2000. Half that amount has been spent by Spain’s Repsol alone, which in 2004 drilled its Yam- agua-1 well to a depth of 11,188 feet (3,410 meters) but failed to come up with anything. Earlier this year, Repsol — in partnership with Norway’s Statoil and a unit of India’s ONGC— halted all Cuba prospecting opera- August 2012 v CubaNews 11 there’s a lack of information. They also say Drilling of Yamagua-1, Jagüey-1 by Repsol and Oil — FROM PAGE 10 analogies between Cuba’s offshore zones and Catoche in block N-51 — jointly owned by ences a high rate of dry holes, even with all other promising oil fields in the Gulf of Petronas and Gazprom —presumably target- the advances we have in technology. So in Mexico are misleading. At least some are ed these structures. deepwater drilling, it is not necessary ‘three downright skeptical when confronted with Yet Cuban oil extraction has always been in- strikes, you’re out.’” Cupet’s estimates of “giant” offshore oil and sufficient to satisfy the island’s domestic Over the past few years, Cupet has encour- gas fields. needs, in spite of the 2003 record production aged international prospecting in the 59 Those official Cuban assessments basically of 3,679,800 tons or about 63,800 barrels a day blocks of its Economic Exclusive Zone (EEZ) come out of hundreds of miles of seismic — nearly 80 times higher than annual output — the Cuban-owned portion of the Gulf of reflection surveying in the EEZ and onshore, in the 1950s. Mexico (see map, page 10). Cupet has always over northern Cuba’s folded petroleum Historically, the motivation for finding and talked boldly of big, large or simply giant oil province — so far the most productive area — extracting hydrocarbons in Cuba has been and gas fields containing up to 20 billion bar- and another belt, the new frontier in Cuba’s oil scarcity of crude oil imports. After 1991, when rels of recoverable reserves worth trillions of exploration called the foreland basin. cheap Soviet oil vanished —unleashing the dollars at prevailing market prices. worst energy crisis ever — Cuba quickly If true, those reserves would rank Cuba SEISMIC SURVEYS YIELD IMPORTANT CLUES turned to its own territory to find the needed 15th in global petroleum reserves — ahead of Geologists’ attention is now focused on resources, opening the sector to foreign in- Algeria, Norway, Ecuador and Colombia — exploring the northernmost reaches of the vestment with rapid and encouraging results. and up from its current 48th-place ranking. folded belt and the foreland basin, which is a In the first five years after this opening, Not all specialists, however, are that strip of land developed in a lithosphere flex- petroleum output nearly tripled, and doubled enthused. The U.S. Geological Survey assess- ure after the mid-Eocene period (the collision again in another five years thanks to new oil es Cuba’s potential petroleum reserves at just moment between Cuba and North America) discoveries and modern technology intro- under 4.6 billion barrels, with a range of one and subsequently covered with thick sedi- duced to increase yields of existing oil fields. billion barrels at 95% probability, and nine bil- ments eroded from the island. Though these favorable conditions extend lion barrels at 5% probability. Hundreds of miles of seismic surveying in all along Cuba’s northern shoreline — an area In private, since they refuse to discuss their Cuba’s foreland basin have found offshore known as the “folded belt” — the island’s opinions publicly, Cuban geologists admit structures capable of trapping hydrocarbons. See Oil, page 12 12 CubaNews v August 2012

(1971), Seboruco, Puerto , Canasí, Santa Cruz with limited results. The rest have never been Oil — FROM PAGE 11 and Majaguillar (1990s-2000s). considered worthwhile. most productive oil fields are along the north This territory accounts for 99% of Cuba’s oil Drilling in these structures has been virtu- coasts of Mayabeque and Matanzas provin- production. As a portion of this structure ally fruitless, though small oil fields in La ces. They occupy a narrow strip of land form- extends below the sea floor, geologists are Trocha (the Cristales, Pina and Brujo oil- ing the Cretaceous Volcanic Arc, superim- trying to reach offshore deposits with hori- fields) have been exploited for decades. posed over sediments along the southern zontal and inclined wells. Piñón pointed out that Cuba’s EEZ covers edge of the Florida and Bahamas platforms. Interest in a second type of structure — the 150,000 sq kms, yet the three blocks in which This is an ancient mega-collision zone that tectonic tertiary basins, which were the lead- the three unsuccessful wells were drilled rep- squeezed and shattered the rocks, which are ing hope for finding oil in Cuba during the resents less than 5% of that entire area. usually found broken in stacked thrust sheets 1940s and 1950s — has faded significantly. “Disappointing yes, but there’s still much — as are roof shingles — that can potentially These basins are filled with virtually unal- more work to be done,” he told CubaNews. “If trap migrating fluids or gases from beneath. tered carbonaceous sediments up to 20,000- we believe what the USGS says, the probabili- The oldest fields are found on this strip at foot depths in some places. They are related ty down the road is that Cuba will find oil.” q Bacuranao (1914), Motembo (1934) and Jara- to large faults that run diagonally through the Larry Luxner is the editor of CubaNews, while hueca (1940), though all them have long since island. There are nine basins of this type but Havana-born Armando Tortela contributed to this been exhausted. Located here are also the only Los Palacios, at the western Pinar del Río story. Portela, who’s written for this newsletter newest and most productive fields: Guanabo- province; La Trocha in central Cuba, and since 1993, has a Ph.D. in geography from the Boca de Jaruco (1968), Varadero-Cárdenas Guacanayabo at the east have been explored Soviet Academy of Sciences and lives in Miami. August 2012 v CubaNews 13 ECONOMIC REFORM National Assembly passes new tax code, other measures BY DOMINGO AMUCHASTEGUI THE NEW TAXATION LAW Inés Chapman Waugh, chief of the National he highly anticipated summer session of Under the comprehensive new tax code, to Institute of Water Resources, described the Cuba’s National Assembly, which con- be introduced gradually, everyone would many new aqueducts, drainage systems, re- Tcluded July 24, was dominated by semi- eventually have to pay income and property pairs to dams and reservoirs, and other proj- official rumors that legislators would discuss taxes for the first time since the 1960s. ects being put in place, along with new tariffs. and finally pass two new pieces of legislation: Specifically, salaries will be exempt from State expenditures in this sector has risen the Migration Law and the Investment Law. taxation as long as present economic condi- sharply, from 50 million pesos in 2000 to 400 million pesos this year. But a few days in advance, the government tions prevail, while taxes for cuentapropistas made an “official clarification” indicating that (self-employed) will be cut by 3-7%, depending Antonio Carricarte, first vice-minister of for- the two initiatives would be taken up by the on income. eign trade and investment, said low produc- National Assembly in December. Farmers in general, including the hundreds tion of rice, beans and milk forced the gov- Five reports were debated during this most of thousands who have received land in ernment to spend much more hard currency recent session, which was closed to foreign usufruct, will benefit from a 50% tax cut. This than anticipated; for example, 300,000 tons of journalists. The most important result was will also include taxes on hired labor for a rice had to be purchased to satisfy domestic adaptation of Cuba’s first comprehensive tax period of two years — and four years if addi- demand. Meanwhile, theft of cattle remains a code since the 1959 communist revolution. tional workers are needed for demanding jobs major problem, especially in the provinces of Villa Clara, Las Tunas, Holguín, Santiago de Here are the session’s key achievements: like clearing marabú weeds. Sales taxes, as well as taxes on certain prod- Cuba, Cienfuegos and Ciego de Avila. CENTRAL BANK OF CUBA ucts and services and the commodity circula- tion tax, will be gradually reduced. Taxes on CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEETING Ernesto Medina Villveirán, president of Parallel to the National Assembly meeting, Cuba’s Banco Central, said the current state houses and urban land plots will not be enforced until property registration is fully the Central Committee of the Communist of defaults — despite having been reduced by Party held a gathering at which its president, 40% this year — remains “crucial and deci- updated and organized. Houses in bad condition — which define Politburo member Marino Murillo, delivered sive” in Cuba’s economy. Irma Martínez, first a report on the “new far-reaching and in- vice-president of the bank, said the most dwellings in Cuba — will be exempt “cadena de from such taxes, while houses built on indi- depth proposals” that form the nucleus of an impagos” [chain of defaults] is “one of the “updating of the model.” problems most affecting Cuba’s finances.” vidual land will be exempt from property taxes for five years. Following the meeting, these proposals Cuba’s Ministries of Agriculture, Domestic were submitted for approval to the Council of Trade and CITMA (science, technology and Corporations, businesses and cooperatives will have to start paying taxes to the CAPs. Ministers in the form of a policy paper known environment), the Institute of Aeronautics as Proyección Estratégica de Trabajo for the and several Consejos de Administración Pro- Bonuses and penalties will be enforced as incentives for greater tax discipline. 2012-15 period. It consists of 55 key projects vinciales (CAPs) hold 85% of such defaults. The recently approved customs tariff — or goals to be achieved in line with fully imple- Beginning in 2013, the Ministry of Finance which has caused considerable grumbling in menting the Lineamientos, or guidelines, and Prices will be in charge of all new policies Cuba and among Cuban exiles living abroad adopted after the Sixth Party Congress. and adjustments concerning defaults, not the — will be submitted to the Council of Minis- The commission is also finalizing the design Central Bank. During the first half of 2012, ters to be debated. It is unclear when that tax of an Economic and Social Model of Develop- some 49,924 customers had access to the new will actually be implemented. ment to be debated as a new platform for credit policy, for a total of 347 million pesos. The Council of Ministers will be responsi- Cuba’s socialist future. More than 75% of the portfolio of Cuba’s ble for drafting taxation and tariff systems in Leaks from Murillo’s two-hour report to the Banco Nacional de Desarrollo Económico y the Zonas de Desarrollo Especial (ZEDs, or National Assembly discussing the results of Social (BANDES) is invested in the agricul- special development zones) and other areas those meetings indicate that an unspecified tural sector, which holds the largest single of the state economy. number of state companies will be partially debt in the country’s banking system. Areas hurt by natural disasters will be ex- deregulated by year’s end. empt from all taxes and tariffs for an unspeci- Reuters reported that instead of being mic- BUDGET BALANCE REPORT (2011) fied number of years; the National Assembly romanaged by the ministries, Murillo said the Cuba’s fiscal deficit was lower than planned, will oversee implementation of this rule. companies would be evaluated by “four or five dropping from 3.8% to 1.7%. That’s the lowest indicators” such as earnings, the relation of since the 1990s, and far lower than the record OTHER IMPORTANT FINDINGS productivity to salaries and their ability to high deficit of 2008, when it reached 6.9% The Ministry of Finance and Prices report- meet the terms of state contracts. (equivalent to 4.2 billion pesos). ed that, as part of the decentralization process He also announced that 222 small- to medi- The state lost nearly four billion pesos in tax granting greater autonomy to provinces and um-sized state entities ranging from shrimp- revenue as a result of growing idle invento- municipalities, 117 initiatives for local devel- breeding farms to restaurants are preparing ries, and defaults on hundreds of thousands of opment (IMDL) have been implemented in 51 to become co-ops. They’ll lease state property and equipment at 10-year renewable inter- home appliances that were sold to the public municipios in 13 provinces. by way of installments to be paid through the These are based on four different sources vals, operate on a market basis, pay taxes like banking system. of funding: state (10,678,000 CUC); bank other companies and divide their profits Some 77.3% of state subsidies were concen- credits (5,069,000 pesos), donations (608,000 among members as they wish. trated in the Ministries of Agriculture, Basic CUC) and local income. Yet it remains to be seen how and when Industries and Light Industry, as well as in the Some 85 new projects are being designed, such crucial issues — especially those 55 new sugar entity, Azcuba, and several CAPs. though others were nixed because they were goals or projects — will be made public. q Savings by state entities are slowly growing, prepared incorrectly or for other reasons. Former Cuban intelligence officer Domingo reaching 1.5 billion pesos in 2011. Meanwhile, Alex Trujillo, first vice-minister of tourism, Amuchastegui has lived in Miami since 1994. He social security covers only 59% of its expens- said that during the first semester of 2012, writes regularly for CubaNews on the Communist es. The state contributes two billion pesos some 1.6 million tourists had visited Cuba, up Party, Cuba’s internal politics, economic reform towards pensions and welfare. 5.8% from the same period in 2011. and South Florida’s large Cuban exile community. 14 CubaNews v August 2012 the foreign currency spent abroad, pushing tend to have limited inventory, little variety, Cargo — FROM PAGE 1 Cubans overseas to send more money and poor quality and prices far higher than those speedier delivery, shipments can run up to fewer goods, said Morales. in Miami. $12/lb in some cases. When Cuba tacks on But some analysts see the move as under- Charter flights transporting human “mules” another $100 in duties, the total cost may mining efforts by President Raúl Castro to carrying down cargo also will be hit hard. prove too much to be worth the effort to buy foster entrepreneurship and trim the govern- Vivian Mannerud, who runs Airline Bro- and send. ment’s bloated state payrolls. kers Co., said luggage volumes at her charter “Shipping with duties like that would be “This is an example of the government operator already have declined this year after impossible,” said one Miami area resident, as shooting itself in the foot,” said Ted Henken, Cuba began imposing duties on food that pre- she waited to send household basics to her president of the Association for the Study of viously entered the island duty-free. family in Holguín. The cost for shipping: $120 the Cuban Economy (see our profile of Henken, When payments in convertible currency for an air parcel not carried by a mule. “I page 8 of this issue). He said the new duties are take effect Sept. 3, Mannerud expects cargo guess I would try to send money down “basically cutting the floor out” from budding volumes to slip further — perhaps to half or instead and let them try to find things to buy entrepreneurs, who often rely on shipments less of their 2011 levels. in Cuba.” of supplies for their businesses. Charter operators for years have limited Money — not goods sent to the island — the number of seats they fill on Cuba-bound seems to be just what the Cuban government FREQUENCY OF FLIGHTS LIKELY TO BE SLASHED flights to compensate for the added weight on seeks with the strict new measures, said Just how much the new duties will cut ship- planes from extra luggage. Emilio Morales, president of the Miami-based ments to Cuba isn’t yet clear. But as luggage volumes fall, operators can Havana Consulting Group. Roberto Penate, owner of the Rumbos Ex- fill more seats. That means they can meet pas- He said that a surge in shipments from press freight service in Miami, thinks his senger demand with fewer flights. Cubans abroad in recent years has cut into Cuba volumes could drop by half this fall. Mannerud predicts operators will be able to sales at government-owned shops and has Penate’s business ships goods throughout cut “at least one flight per week” off their expanded the informal market so much that Latin America; he added Cuba service about schedules. She’s watching luggage volumes the state now wants to re-exert control. two years ago, after Obama liberalized U.S. on her own operations to decide what to do in Morales estimates the value of shipments rules on gift parcels. He figures his volumes the future. of Cuba-bound gift parcels grew to at least $2 to Cuba rose to about 6,000 lbs/week this Still, some veterans in Cuba business try to billion last year, thanks to Obama administra- summer, as customers rushed to send goods roll with the changes. Mannerud said she ex- tion rules that allow unlimited shipments of before higher fees kick in. pects that over time, Cubans on the island and gifts and Cuban government decrees that Business could shrink to about 3,000 those abroad will invent some new channel to expand self-employment. Between $1 billion lbs/week when those higher duties take boost shipments. “They’ll find a way,” she said, with a little and $1.5 billion of those goods were resold or effect next month, Penate told CubaNews. otherwise traded on Cuba’s informal market “People will still have to send things down, laugh. “They always do.” q or by small businesses, he figures. because there’s a need in Cuba. They will just Doreen Hemlock, former Havana bureau chief Now, the Cuban government wants to shift send less,” he said. Buying at state stores in and now business writer at the South Florida Sun- more sales to state stores and take in more of Cuba isn’t a real option, because the stores Sentinel, is a regular contributor to CubaNews. Cuba: GDP growth at 2.1% Cholera outbreak fails to scare tourists away Cuba’s gross domestic product grew ravel providers that handle U.S. and broke out there after the earthquake, and 2.1% in the first half of the year compared foreign tours to Cuba are furious over they treated many thousands of patients.” with the same period in 2011, and the Tattempts by at least one Washington Insight Cuba, based in New Rochelle, island has continued to post a positive law-makerto use Cuba’s ongoing cholera N.Y., shares similar sentiments. trade balance, Economy Minister Adel epidemic as a tactic to keep tourists away. “It’s unfortunate [for Ros-Lehtinen] to Yzquierdo said July 23. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), chair of take this situation and politicize it,” said Reuters, quoting the government-run the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said company president Tom Popper. Prensa Latina news agency, said the over- the Castro regime has been “secretive, de- Despite news coverage of the cholera sit- all results were considered positive by top ceitful and uncooperative with international uation, travel providers report no steep bureaucrats in Havana. health officials” — and that “lives have al- drop in U.S. or overseas bookings to Cuba. Government officials have said the goal ready been lost in Cuba because of the re- “We have not experienced any decrease in our sales,” said Miguel Gibson, owner of is to achieve 3% GDP growth in 2012. gime’s policy of keeping these issues in the dark, so as not to scare away tourists and British travel agency Cuba Direct. “Why The economy grew 2.7% in 2011 despite should they decrease? The cholera out- tough austerity measures imposed by their hard currencies.” break is very localized and it has been con- President Raúl Castro beginning in 2009. To date, the government has confirmed tained. Manzanillo is not a place which fea- Yzquierdo said trade continued to per- 170 cases of cholera and three deaths. tures in tours, nor is it a place of interest for form positively, without giving any “We believe that the right-wing Cuban independent travelers. If there were a simi- details. Cuba reported a $4 billion trade community in Miami is trying to blow the lar situation in Havana, I would then expect cholera outbreak out of proportion,” said surplus in 2011. The Castro regime has a decrease in business.” Leslie Balog, Cuba reality tours director for not reported on its current account bal- It helps that July and August are low sea- San Francisco-based Global Exchange. son for Cuba travel. ance of payments since 2009. “The outbreak occurred in the far east- Under President Raúl Castro, the island “All the incoming requests now from all ern province of Granma, in the city of Man- over the world are for the new high season is in the midst of a sweeping reform of its zanillo,” Balog told CubaNews. “According beginning in November,” said Volker Soviet-style economy in an effort to pull to Cuban health officials, it is under con- Liebig, Havana division manager at Swiss out of a crisis that has dragged on for two trol, and we have no reason to believe oth- travel agency Cuba Real Tours Ltd. decades. Cuba is also saddled with a erwise. Remember that Cuban doctors “Everyone is quite sure that in November, growing foreign debt now estimated at have experience dealing with cholera since everything will be normal.” more than $22 billion by local economists. hundreds of them were in Haiti when it – VITO ECHEVARRÍA August 2012 v CubaNews 15

HISTORY Cuban exiles, Watergate, JFK and Dallas: A possible link? BY RUBEN CASTANEDA Pigs played out. So why would he refer to it back of the president’s neck, stopped in mid- as Richard Nixon afraid that the when talking about the Watergate break-in? air, turned, went through Texas Sen. John Watergate scandal would reveal the In the decades since JFK’s assassination, a Connally’s wrist and chest, and finally through Wkillers of John F. Kennedy? mythic golden hue has been cast over him the senator’s thigh. The alleged bullet was Dozens of stories have been written recent- and his administration. A Democratic icon, “discovered,” hours later, in pristine condition JFK’s image is mounted in the living rooms of on a stretcher at the Dallas hospital to which ly commemorating the 40th anniversary of admirers from Boston to East Los Angeles. JFK and Connally were taken. the 1972 Watergate break-in. The journalistic Fired bullets do not change direction in heroes of the story, Bob Woodward and Carl SOME DANGEROUS PEOPLE HATED JFK mid-air. Bullets which pass through muscle Bernstein, have published a lengthy piece in But at the time he was killed, JFK was and bone do not remain in pristine condition. the Washington Post detailing Nixon’s war on For the magic bullet theory to work, the laws the Constitution, on the press, on democracy. reviled by a number of forces: Cuban exiles who felt betrayed, arch-conservatives who of physics, for starters, would have had to But the most tantalizing aspect of Water- have not been in effect. gate has been ignored: The possibility that hated his stance on civil rights, mobsters who were livid that the administration’s Justice And then there’s the Zapruder film, which Nixon worried that the investigation could show’s JFK’s head snapping backward when reveal the truth behind the JFK assassination. Department, led by the president’s brother Robert, was going after organized crime. the fatal bullet strikes his cranium. The To a large extent, Nixon did himself in by footage clearly indicates the fatal shot was taping his White House conversations. The fired from in front, probably from the infa- famous Watergate tapes revealed him to be mous grassy knoll. duplicitious, paranoid and profane. The American public had serious doubts One particular recording may also reveal about the official account from the beginning. that the president was fearful that the unfold- LARRY LUXNER Those doubts have not dissipated with time. ing scandal could lead to a story far bigger In 2004, a Fox News poll found that 66% of the than slush funds or political dirty tricks. American public believed JFK was killed as The bungled break-in at the Democratic part of a conspiracy, and 75% believed there National Committee office, at the Watergate was a cover-up. hotel complex, occurred on June 17, 1972. Less than a week later, on June 23, Nixon TRUTH MAY NEVER BE KNOWN engaged in an intense conversation with one Most likely, JFK was killed by a collabora- of his top aides, H.R. Haldeman. A transcript tion of anti-Castro Cubans, the Mob, and CIA of the conversation shows the two talking operatives. There is no doubt security people about how to contain the investigation. were involved. Moments after the shooting, a Dallas police officer ran toward the grassy NIXON REFERS TO THE BAY OF PIGS knoll. He was met by a man in a suit who At one point, Nixon says, “When you get The building that lent its name to the 1972 scandal. flashed what appeared to be official creden- these people, when you get these people in, tials. The man said he was with the Secret say, ‘Look, the problem is that this will open There were probably hundreds of people at Service and told the cop the area was covered. the whole Bay of Pigs thing …” the time who would have stood in line to take The Secret Service did not have anyone At another point in the same conversation, a shot at JFK. assigned to that area. That’s not a Mob move. Nixon says, “this is a Hunt, you will – that will The initial official story, dispensed via the The cover-up included the killing of accused uncover a lot of things. You open that scab Warren Commission, claimed that Lee Har- assassin Lee Harvey Oswald by Jack Ruby, a and there’s a hell of a lot of things that we just vey Oswald, acting alone, used a World War Mob-connected strip club owner. Initially, feel that it would be very detrimental to have II-era Italian-made Mannlicher-Carcano rifle Ruby explained he killed Oswald — in front of this going further.” to fatally shoot JFK from the sixth floor of the a passel of cops — to spare JFK’s widow, Hunt was E. Howard Hunt, a longtime CIA Texas Bookstore Repository on Nov. 22, 1963. Jackie, from having to go through a trial. operative and one of the Watergate burglars. The idea that Oswald killed JFK is not only A couple of years later, Ruby told the War- In his memoir, Haldeman wrote that he preposterous, it is an insult to anyone who ren Commission he would tell what he knew, believed “Bay of Pigs” was Nixon’s coded way takes a few minutes to study the evidence. but he begged to be moved out of Texas. The of referring to the JFK assassination. At its core, the assassination was a homi- commission didn’t take him up on his offer. The Bay of Pigs — the botched invasion by cide, a crime. As with any crime, one needs to As researchers and authors dug into the CIA-trained Cuban exiles — occurred on follow the evidence. The Warren Commission assassination, suspicion fell on CIA man Hunt. April 17, 1961, during JFK’s first few months released an 888-page report that claimed to There’s a famous photo of three so-called in office. It was a plan that Kennedy had inher- prove Oswald killed JFK. tramps who were near the crime scene and ited from the Eisenhower administration. were briefly detained by Dallas police. Some An initial U.S. air strike was ineffectual, and AN UNTENABLE OFFICIAL THEORY have argued that Hunt was one of the three. failed to knock out Cuba’s Air Force. JFK re- As one Warren Commission critic put it, the Many are skeptical that such a huge crime fused to call in a second air attack; the inva- commission’s findings are a series of small could be kept under wraps for so long. The ders were crushed. About 100 were killed by and medium lies, based on one big lie: The fact is, it really hasn’t been kept secret. For Cuban forces, and over 1,200 were captured. magic bullet theory. Boiled down, that theory whatever reason, the mainstream press has al- The aftermath was toxic. Military hawks — authored by former Pennsylvania senator most universally chosen to ignore the story. q were enraged at the president for not calling Arlen Specter — holds that Oswald fired Ruben Castaneda was born and raised in Los in more air support. Kennedy was livid at the three shots at a moving target in six seconds. Angeles. From 1989 to 2011, he covered a variety CIA, which he vowed to “splinter into a thou- FBI sharpshooters were unable to duplicate of stories for The Washington Post. Castaneda is sand pieces.” Hatred is too polite a word for this feat with that weapon. now is writing a book about his life as a reporter. what anti-Castro Cubans felt toward JFK. The most preposterous aspect of the theo- A longer version of this article appeared last Nixon was not in office when the Bay of ry holds that one bullet strafed through the month in the online Baltimore Post-Examiner. 16 CubaNews v August 2012

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