1 2 3 4 5 1 Creating an earthquake scenario in China: A case study in Weinan City, 6 2 Shaanxi province 7 8 3 Janise Rodgersa,*, Guiwu Sub, Wenhua Qib, David Milledgec, Alexander Densmored, Craig 9 4 Davise, Philip Englandf, John Youngg, Yue Caoh, Arrietta Chakosi, Xiaoli Lij, Timothy Simk, 10 5 Emily Sol, Barry Parsonsf, Lei Sunm, Junlei Yun, Chunlan Guok 11 6 12 7 a GeoHazards International, Menlo Park, California, USA 13 8 b Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China 14 9 c School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK 15 10 d Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, UK 16 11 e Los Angeles, USA 17 12 f Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK 18 13 g INASP, Oxford, UK 19 14 h Overseas Development Institute, London, UK 20 i 21 15 Urban Resilience Strategies, Berkeley, California, USA j 22 16 China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing, China k 23 17 Department of Applied Social Sciences, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China l 24 18 Department of Architecture, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK 25 19 m Center for Crisis Management Research, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, 26 20 Beijing, China 27 21 n Research Center of Emergency Management, School of Public Management/Emergency Management, Jinan 28 22 University, Guangzhou, China 29 23 30 31 24 Abstract 32 33 25 In efforts to address government-identified gaps between top-down policies and local-level 34 26 preparedness approaches, a team from China, the UK and the US undertook a transdisciplinary, 35 27 participatory project to develop an earthquake scenario for two administrative districts of 36 28 Weinan, Shaanxi province, located east of Xi’an. We designed the scenario study and 37 29 communication materials, a first of their kind in China, to help local agencies describe and 38 30 communicate earthquake risk to local decision-makers and the public. Weinan was destroyed by 39 31 the 1556 M8¼ Huaxian earthquake, China’s deadliest so far, and damaged by the 1568 M~7 40 32 Shaanxi Gaoling earthquake (also known as the M6¾ Northeast Xi’an earthquake). We chose a 41 33 repeat of this 1568 event, because earthquakes of the size of the 1556 Huaxian event are 42 34 extremely rare in the Weihe basin (and similar tectonic environments worldwide). We modelled 43 35 the ground motion of the 1568 event, prepared a loss estimate, conducted field charrettes 44 36 comprising field work and local consultations, and carried out disaster issue-focused social 45 37 surveys to understand Weinan’s main earthquake risk problems. We used a storytelling approach 46 47 38 to create two science-based narratives, in Chinese and English, of the scenario earthquake’s 48 39 aftermath. One is a short graphic novel with earthquake mitigation and preparedness tips for the 49 50 * Corresponding author. 51 E-mail address: [email protected] (J. Rodgers) 52 53 54 1 55 56 57 58 59 40 general public; the other is a narrative story with technical content and recommendations for 60 61 41 relevant local agencies. The narratives can help people visualize the estimated losses and 62 42 impacts, and provide mitigation and preparedness recommendations that, if implemented, will 63 43 help reduce earthquake damage and consequences. 64 44 65 45 Key words: Transdisciplinary; participatory; narrative; storytelling; landslides; loss estimation 66 46 67 68 47 1. Earthquake scenarios: international experience and implications for China 69 70 48 Scenarios have emerged over the last few decades as a useful method to bring together 71 49 physical, environmental and social scientists, engineers, policymakers, government agencies, 72 50 private sector companies and citizens to plan for possible future events. They provide a forum to 73 51 assemble existing scientific and other forms of knowledge about what might happen and to 74 52 decide collaboratively what could be done to mitigate the impact of harmful events, or maximize 75 53 the benefit of positive events. They have been used for a very wide range of events, including 76 54 defense planning (for example by RAND Corporation) to develop a large scale early warning 77 55 system for incoming ballistic missiles [1], governance reform (for example the Mont Fleur 78 56 scenarios to deliberate the future of South Africa after the end of apartheid in 1991-92 [2]), and 79 57 most relevant to our purposes, for planning to mitigate the impact of natural disasters (for 80 58 example the United States Geological Survey (USGS) California ShakeOut earthquake scenario 81 59 [3]). 82 83 60 Since the 1960s, scenarios have been used to understand and communicate the potential 84 61 consequences of earthquakes, and as a basis for mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery 85 62 planning. In California alone, scenarios have been used to inform disaster preparedness planning 86 63 for local, regional, state and federal authorities; to develop guidelines and municipal ordinances 87 64 for residential seismic strengthening; to provide guidance for policy and legislation development 88 65 in scenario-affected regions; to serve as the basis for large-scale preparedness exercises; and to 89 66 inform development of response, recovery and resilience plans. As used in this paper, an 90 67 earthquake scenario refers to a study of the consequences from a specific, hypothetical 91 68 earthquake, conducted for the above purposes. The same approach can be used for other natural 92 69 hazard events. A scenario includes the technical “core” consisting of a loss estimate and 93 70 documentation of how the estimate was made, along with a description of impacts, often in 94 71 narrative form that presents the hypothetical disaster unfolding. Some scenarios also include 95 72 recommendations to reduce losses and action plans to implement them, or specialized products 96 73 for public communications and response simulation exercises. The scope, level of technical 97 74 detail, and presentation style can vary widely between scenarios, but all share the common intent 98 75 of presenting risk information in a way that allows the audience to conceptualize potential 99 100 76 damage and its consequences. Guidance on scenario preparation, based on experience described 101 77 below, is available from several sources (e.g., [4,5,6]). 102 78 A detailed, 15-year-long study of the effects of a repeat of the 1923 M7.9 Kanto earthquake 103 79 on contemporary Tokyo, released in 1978 (described in [7]), was probably the first 104 80 comprehensive earthquake scenario. In the early- and mid-1970s, the US National Oceanic and 105 81 Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and USGS released a series of loss estimates for potential 106 82 US West Coast earthquakes [8,9,10,11], which were the beginnings of earthquake scenario use 107 83 for preparedness in the US. Beginning in 1980, the California Division of Mines and Geology 108 84 (CDMG, now the California Geological Survey) began to prepare infrastructure-focused 109 110 2 111 112 113 114 115 85 earthquake scenarios for planning purposes (e.g., [12,13]). FEMA-176 [14] includes a list of 116 117 86 early studies in the US, and lays out a significant portion of the conceptual framework that later 118 87 scenario studies would follow. During this period and in the decades that followed, much 119 88 practical progress was made in earthquake loss estimation (e.g., [15,16]), including the debut of 120 89 freely available HAZUS loss estimation software, which supported more robust scenario studies. 121 90 In the 1990s, GeoHazards International (GHI) pioneered the use of earthquake scenarios for 122 91 risk reduction in emerging and developing countries, adapting methods from California and 123 92 Japan. In early examples of transdisciplinary, participatory approaches to scenario creation, GHI 124 93 worked with local professionals to create scenarios in Quito, Ecuador [17] and Kathmandu, 125 94 Nepal [18], as well as in additional cities under the RADIUS project [19]. Transdisciplinary 126 95 approaches involve practitioners and researchers from multiple disciplines working together with 127 96 stakeholders to solve difficult problems (see [20] for further information). GHI’s Kathmandu 128 97 scenario appears to have been the first to use the storytelling approach of following a fictional 129 98 character in its narrative. GHI’s more recent scenarios include Aizawl, India [21] and three 130 99 districts in Nepal [22,23,24]. 131 100 Meanwhile, use of scenarios for planning continued in the US, with major scenarios by the 132 101 Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (e.g., [25,26,27]), and a series of large-scale scenarios 133 134 102 by USGS, including the Southern California ShakeOut scenario [28]. The ShakeOut is probably 135 103 the most widely known and used earthquake scenario to date, with extensive public outreach and 136 104 communications described in [3]. The most recent is the Haywired scenario [29,30], focused on 137 105 earthquake impacts to technology and lifelines in the San Francisco Bay Area. Researchers in 138 106 Japan (see [7]; numerous studies by the Central Disaster Prevention Council for internal use; 139 107 [31]), New Zealand (recent examples include [32,33]), Colombia (e.g., [34]), Nepal (e.g. 140 108 [35,36]), India, Turkey, Kazakhstan, and others also prepared scenarios for similar purposes. 141 109 Because of the long-lasting, painful experience of the 1976 M7.8 Tangshan earthquake, 142 110 China began to conduct work on earthquake disaster loss assessment (earthquake loss 143 111 estimation/ELE) in 1980 [37]. For example, in 1980, the Institute of Engineering Mechanics, 144 112 China Earthquake Administration (CEA) launched a two-year long project on earthquake 145 113 building damage assessment in Anyang city, Henan Province [38]; in 1981, the Institute of 146 114 Geology, CEA and the Institute of Engineering Earthquake Research, Chinese Academy of 147 115 Building Sciences, launched a three-year long program on earthquake loss estimation (ELE) in 148 116 Yantai City (Shan Dong province) and Xuzhou City (Jiangsu province) [39]. 149 117 In the 1990s, with the start of the UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction 150 151 118 (IDNDR) campaign, the CEA set up the work on ELE as one of its key research topics. In 1989, 152 119 CEA established the “Research Group/Task Force on Future Earthquake Loss Estimation”, and 153 120 carried out research on “China Earthquake Loss Estimation in the Forthcoming 50 Years” 154 121 [40,41]. In order to further promote and guide ELE work, the CEA issued the "Work Outline for 155 122 Earthquake Loss Estimation (Draft)" in early 1990, which advanced China's ELE to enter a new 156 123 stage [37]. In 1993, research on “Prediction of Chinese Earthquake Losses with Scale of Ten 157 124 Years” was carried out as a national research planning priority [42]. During the “9th Five-Year” 158 125 planning period (1996-2000), ELE and earthquake disaster mitigation demonstration research 159 126 and applications were carried out in multiple regional cities including Zigong, Sichuan Province, 160 127 and Quanzhou, Fujian Province [43]. Reflecting years of progress, the standard GB/T 19428- 161 128 2003: Code for earthquake disaster evaluation and its information management system was 162 129 released in 2003 [44] and revised recently in 2014 (GB/T 19428-2014, [45]). The basic logic of 163 130 China’s ELE methodology originated primarily in the US Applied Technology Council methods 164 165 166 3 167 168 169 170 171 131 (e.g., [15]). As early as in 1991, Chinese researchers translated ATC-13 Earthquake Damage 172 173 132 Evaluation Data for California into Chinese [46]. Since then, the ATC-series documents have 174 133 been widely referred to in the nation. Substantial efforts over the past three decades in China 175 134 have resulted in earthquake loss estimates for around 40 large and medium-sized cities nation- 176 135 wide. 177 136 Although significant progress in earthquake loss estimation in China has been achieved, there 178 137 is still considerable space for further work, considering the full spectrum of internationally 179 138 available earthquake scenario work. The major such areas for ELE in China are as follows: 180 139 • Although the work scope described in GB/T 19428-2014 is quite inclusive, most past 181 140 analyses (especially the early ones) have often disproportionately centered on buildings, 182 141 lifelines, and casualties and direct economic losses caused by damage to them. The 183 142 analysis on other aspects such as earthquake-induced geo-hazards and secondary disasters 184 143 has often been very limited, due to various factors such as resource limitations, end-user 185 144 requirements, and limited availability of certain necessary expertise to assist the work 186 145 team. 187 188 146 • Almost all existing ELE studies (i.e., the ELE work conducted for large and medium- 189 147 sized cities) were mainly focused on urban areas, with rural areas barely or seldom 190 148 addressed. 191 149 • Loss estimates have frequently focused on physical vulnerabilities of buildings and 192 150 lifelines, with limited discussion of functionality and the consequences of damage on 193 151 systems and people, thus reducing practical applicability. Communication between 194 152 researchers and local relevant agencies has often been insufficient, resulting in 195 153 researchers often having limited understanding of actual risks to functionality (i.e., if a 196 154 water pipeline breaks, how many people would be impacted), and end-user agencies often 197 155 lacking understanding of how researchers’ work may be relevant to their responsibilities 198 156 and ongoing work. 199 157 • Existing ELE work mainly aimed to help government and its relevant agencies to 200 158 improve their top-down disaster reduction practices, with little bottom-up consideration 201 159 on how to directly serve the broad civil society, especially the general public and grass- 202 203 160 roots groups. For example, apart from physical damage of buildings and infrastructure, 204 161 other situations the general public and communities may face (e.g., family and 205 162 community level impacts and response) have barely been addressed. Associated human 206 163 and social science-focused elements have almost never been examined substantively. 207 164 • There has been little examination of contextual information to understand: how the local 208 165 population understands and practises earthquake preparedness; how ELE work can be 209 166 understood and used; and how the work results and products should be made more useful. 210 167 • Past loss estimation work (particularly the earlier estimates) frequently ended with 211 168 production of a report focused on detailed technical explanations of buildings and 212 169 lifelines, with some general, high level recommendations. End-users often found these 213 170 reports dry and difficult to understand, and unmanageable to use, creating a barrier to 214 171 actually using the results to reduce risk. Recently, the products of some ELE work in 215 172 China also included “an information management system” which was often sophisticated 216 173 in information technology and professional in earthquake hazard and disaster analysis but 217 218 174 seems more suitable for researchers to maintain and use than for end-users. 219 175 220 221 222 4 223 224 225 226 227 176 Given the above, and with the opportunity provided by the UK Natural Environment (NERC) 228 229 177 and Economic and Social (ESRC) Research Councils and the Natural Science Foundation of 230 178 China (NSFC) through their jointly supported project “Pan-participatory Assessment and 231 179 Governance of Earthquake Risks in the Ordos Area (PAGER-O)”, we decided to prepare a pilot 232 180 earthquake scenario for Weinan area, Shaanxi province, China, using the GHI approaches 233 181 described above. The PAGER-O project is one part of the UK-China collaboration programme 234 182 “Increasing Resilience to Natural Hazards in Earthquake-Prone regions in China (IRNHiC)", 235 183 whose aim is to introduce international experience relevant to China’s earthquake loss estimation 236 184 work and beyond, advance earthquake scenario practice where possible, and address 237 185 simultaneously the government-identified gap between top-down and bottom-up disaster risk 238 186 reduction approaches in China [47,48], to the extent possible. 239 187 240 241 188 2. Weinan context 242 243 189 The study area in Weinan City consists of two municipal/administrative districts (Fig. 1), 244 190 Linwei District and Huazhou District, which have a total population of over 1.30 million and a 245 191 GDP of 46.55 billion RMB in 2017. Geographically, the study area is east of Xi’an in Shaanxi 246 192 Province, along the Weihe River in the Weihe basin that lies south of the loess plateau and north 247 193 of the Qinling Mountains. This great difference in the geomorphological point of view among 248 194 high mountains, relatively flat Weihe basin, and uneven loess tableland in the area results in a 249 195 variety of land use and land coverage. The climate is suitable for agriculture, although 250 251 196 occasionally crops in this area suffer from summer drought and autumn floods. Weinan is a 252 197 predominantly agricultural area, but there are also several large-scale chemical factories and 253 198 thermal power plants, especially in the study area, which might experience secondary disasters 254 199 when an earthquake occurs. On the route between Beijing and Xi’an, Weinan City is well served 255 200 by multiple transportation modes including highways, regular and high-speed rail lines, and 256 201 expressways. 257 202 Tectonically, Weinan City lies in the eastern part of the Weihe basin, south of the Ordos 258 203 block of the North China platform, with the active tectonics of the Weihe sub-seismic belt well 259 204 developed [49]. The Weihe basin contains a number of active faults (see Fig. 1 in Feng et al. 260 205 [50], this issue), and was affected by at least 20 major earthquakes since 600 CE for which 261 206 historical records exist (see Fig. 1 in Ma et al. [51], this issue, reprinted from [52]). Destructive 262 207 earthquakes affecting Weinan City occurred primarily in two periods, 793-879 and 1501-1568. 263 208 Between 1501 and1568, three major earthquakes occurred, including China’s deadliest 264 209 earthquake to date, the 1556 M 8¼ Huaxian earthquake. This period of strong seismic activity 265 210 also included the 1501 M7 Chaoyi and1568 M~7 Shaanxi Gaoling earthquakes (see Ma et al. 266 211 [51], this issue, for details of the latter), and three smaller earthquakes with magnitudes of M~5½ 267 268 212 [53]. Secondary geologic hazards in the study area mainly include landslides in rock and loess, 269 213 surface fault rupture, ground fissures and subsidence, liquefaction and lateral spreading. 270 214 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 5 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 215 307 216 308 217 Fig. 1. Map of Linwei and Huazhou districts, Weinan city. Image source: Bing 309 218 310 311 219 3. Developing the Weinan scenario: Process 312 313 220 This section provides a brief overview of the main processes the team used to develop the 314 221 scenario. These processes are based primarily on GHI’s practice experience [4,6] and scenario 315 222 development practices by others (e.g., [3,5]). 316 317 223 3.1. Project initiation and planning 318 319 224 The project’s approach was developed collaboratively in planning workshops in Oxford 320 225 (January) and Beijing (April) in 2016. We identified key objectives for the scenario development 321 226 process, which included: 322 227 • Testing the use of scenario-building as a transdisciplinary process tool for both 323 228 earthquake risk analysis and local engagement on earthquake risk governance in China; 324 229 and creating a model scenario process that local researchers or relevant agencies could 325 230 replicate in other earthquake-threatened areas; 326 327 231 • Basing the scenario on technically credible science and disaster loss estimates to give 328 232 confidence in the results; and 329 233 • Most importantly, motivating both relevant local agencies and the public to take actions 330 234 to more effectively mitigate earthquake risk and increase resilience. 331 332 333 334 6 335 336 337 338 339 235 3.2. Scenario city selection 340 341 236 Through online communications since the initial planning workshop in Oxford, the team 342 343 237 selected the scenario city candidates based on the following main criteria, discussed extensively 344 238 during the April 2016 Beijing launch workshop: a) modest population size, to keep the scope 345 239 manageable; b) strongly shaken by one of four major historical earthquakes: 1920 Haiyuan, 1739 346 240 Yinchuan, 1709 Zhongwei and 1556 Huaxian; c) previous work on historical earthquakes, active 347 241 tectonics, disaster loss estimates, earthquake hazard micro-zonation, and disaster preparedness, 348 242 along with potential for meaningful additional physical and social science research; d) receptive 349 243 local government and community; e) local research and practitioner partners available; f) 350 244 representative buildings and infrastructure; g) landslide hazard; and h) China Earthquake 351 245 Administration (CEA) or Ministry of Civil Affairs (MoCA) disaster risk reduction demonstration 352 246 sites present. We selected these criteria to identify a setting that would allow us to demonstrate 353 247 how to address a full range of risk problems including infrastructure, buildings and social issues, 354 248 and possible linkages between top-down and bottom-up earthquake disaster risk reduction (DRR) 355 249 approaches in China. Labor division was also discussed in this launch workshop, during which 356 250 Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration (IGCEA) and The Hong Kong 357 251 Polytechnic University, China (Poly-U Hong Kong) teams decided to focus on social science- 358 252 relevant issues and bottom-up earthquake DRR elements in particular. Between April and 359 360 253 November 2016, the China team visited all candidate cities to meet officials and assess each 361 254 against the key criteria, including the level of interest in collaboration, and selected Weinan as 362 255 the scenario city. 363 364 256 3.3. Initial site visits, field research and planning meetings 365 366 257 In December 2016, the international team made a technical site visit to Xi’an and Weinan, 367 258 including meetings with the Shaanxi Earthquake Administration (Shaanxi EA) and local NGOs 368 259 in Xi’an, field reconnaissance in the two districts of Weinan, and meetings with relevant Weinan 369 260 authorities and agencies. We held detailed discussions about possible scenario earthquakes and 370 261 refining the scenario process for the China context. 371 262 The Chinese team began field research, including a detailed survey of buildings by a team of 372 263 over 30 local engineering students, and around 20 Shaanxi EA staff; interviews and analysis of 373 264 mobile phone data to gather information on building occupancy; visits to water, power and 374 265 telecoms companies; and collection of information about existing earthquake preparedness and 375 266 response capacity of government agencies. Research work on preparing shaking intensity maps 376 267 began. The Chinese team visited the UK in May 2017 to meet with, share experiences with, and 377 268 learn from other groups working on earthquake disaster risk reduction. 378 379 269 3.4. Charrette 1 380 381 270 In June 2017, the team held a charrette, an intense, focused collaborative effort to solve a 382 271 problem, a process originating in architecture, in Weinan and Xi’an. This charrette focused on 383 272 understanding the main earthquake risk problems in Linwei and Huazhou districts. Using field 384 273 charrette processes GHI developed in prior scenario work in India, team members from multiple 385 274 disciplines spent time together in the field to jointly observe tectonic features and geologic 386 387 275 evidence of historical earthquakes (including earthquake induced landslides), lifelines, rural and 388 276 urban buildings, schools, hospitals and DRR demonstration communities. The team met 389 390 7 391 392 393 394 395 277 frequently to review emerging data and ideas, held large-scale participatory stakeholder 396 397 278 consultation meetings with officials in Xi’an and Weinan, and selected the scenario earthquake. 398 399 279 3.5. Scenario preparation and review 400 401 280 Following Charrette 1, the Chinese team prepared loss estimates for buildings in rural and 402 281 urban areas of the scenario districts, and further explored vulnerabilities of lifeline infrastructure 403 282 (see the subsequent technical approach and methods section for discussion). The Chinese team 404 283 visited California in October 2017 to meet with organizations involved in earthquake safety and 405 284 scenarios, and to work with GHI to review the loss estimate results and identify missing 406 285 information. In November 2017, key international and Chinese team members met in Beijing to 407 286 present the emerging scenario findings to officials from Shaanxi and Weinan EAs, and agree on 408 287 the next steps including the most useful products and mechanisms for local engagement and 409 288 action planning. At this meeting, we agreed on a storytelling approach, and began to prepare the 410 289 narrative story. Following this meeting, the IGCEA team began to prepare for a large-scale 411 290 questionnaire surveys to understand local people’s awareness of earthquake risks and, personal 412 291 and household earthquake resilience, and relevant disaster preparedness across the Weinan 413 292 prefecture. In addition, the Poly-U Hong Kong team performed face to face interviews in three 414 293 villages within the study area, specially probing the relationship between poverty and natural- 415 294 hazard related disasters (Yu et al. [54], this issue). The purposes of these surveys and interviews 416 295 included addressing, in particular, bottom-up earthquake DRR issues and to inform the 417 296 development of the narrative story. 418 419 297 3.6. Charrette 2 420 421 298 The second transdisciplinary field charrette in May 2018 was timed to coincide with national 422 423 299 events to mark the 10th anniversary of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, and focused on 424 300 discussing, presenting and ground-truthing estimated impacts of the scenario earthquake with 425 301 local agencies and experts. We presented emerging findings (e.g., building loss estimation results) 426 302 to government officials in Weinan, and consulted with earthquake administration officials and 427 303 experts in Xi’an to finalize the most effective form and content of the narrative and start the 428 304 action-planning phase. We held collaborative writing sessions to improve the narrative and 429 305 incorporate local feedback. 430 431 306 3.7. Scenario finalization and closing workshop 432 433 307 We incorporated all of the local feedback from Charrette 2, prepared the final building loss 434 308 estimates, and completed estimates of landslide probability and likely impact on lifelines. We 435 309 then worked with an illustrator and a book designer to create the scenario narratives for 436 310 audiences consisting of the general public and local officials, with their input, in both Chinese 437 311 and English. We presented these draft documents at a January 2019 workshop in Beijing, with 438 312 participating Chinese experts and officials from CEA, UNICEF China, Beijing Normal 439 313 University, Ministry of Emergency Management, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and both 440 314 Shaanxi EA and Weinan EA acting as peer-reviewers, to obtain feedback on the scenario 441 315 narratives and the replicability of the transdisciplinary project approach. The workshop produced 442 316 30 immediate recommendations to improve communication products, which were incorporated 443 317 in the final versions of the scenario narratives, as well as exploring ideas for wider replication of 444 445 446 8 447 448 449 450 451 318 the approach. The team also reviewed the overall achievements of the project against the original 452 453 319 objectives as set out in the PAGER-O project’s original proposal and “Project Initiation and 454 320 Planning” section in an internal team meeting. The final project results and products were 455 321 presented at the IRNHiC program-end workshop in Beijing in March 2019, during which two 456 322 officials from the Huazhou earthquake office of Weinan also attended, reflecting the continuing 457 323 participation of the relevant local officials during the entirety of this scenario development effort. 458 324 The project results and products were well received. 459 325 460 461 326 4. Preparing the Weinan scenario: Technical approach and methods 462 463 327 This section provides an overview of the methods used to generate scenario results, which 464 328 other papers in this issue describe in detail. The scenario development team realized that sharing 465 329 local data is very complex, resulting in all direct work with local data being accomplished by the 466 330 China team members alone, as the international participants could not access local data. 467 331 International participants worked with summary results that the China team provided and data 468 332 available outside China, such as publicly available satellite imagery. Any references to the 469 333 team’s direct use of local data refer to China team members only. 470 471 334 4.1. Selecting the scenario earthquake and estimating shaking 472 473 335 The team confined its consideration of possible scenario earthquakes to repeats of historical 474 336 earthquakes, for two principal reasons. First, communication of the risks and mitigation 475 337 strategies is more direct if they are based on a real, rather than hypothetical, earthquake. Second, 476 338 had we chosen to place the scenario earthquake on one of the active faults in the region that have 477 339 not hosted a historical earthquake, there would have been the unavoidable risk that some would 478 479 340 regard our choice as resembling a forecast of future seismicity. We considered three historical 480 341 events: the 1501 M7 Chaoyi, 1556 M 8 ¼ Huaxian, and 1568 M~7 Shaanxi Gaoling earthquakes. 481 342 Of these, we selected the last, because it generated strong but not completely devastating shaking 482 343 in Linwei and Huazhou (Ma et al. [51] and Chen et al. [55], this issue). Given the number of 483 344 active faults in the Weihe Basin, the team’s earth scientists considered this level of shaking to 484 345 have a plausible likelihood of occurring, within the next 100 years, somewhere within the region 485 346 of responsibility for the authorities with whom we were engaged. 486 347 In contrast, a ~M8 earthquake, like the 1556 Huaxian event, is expected to occur on the 487 348 Huashan fault once in more than 5,000 years. Studies of how humans perceive risk (see [56]) and 488 349 past scenario user needs assessments [14] indicate that it is difficult to motivate action to prepare 489 350 for threats of such rarity. The 1568 earthquake was preferred to the 1501 Chaoyi earthquake 490 351 because the causative fault is now well characterized (Feng et al. [50], this issue) and the 491 352 historical record of ground shaking can be reliably related to the fault (Ma et al., this issue). 492 353 Furthermore, the epicenter of the 1501 earthquake was too far east to produce damaging shaking 493 354 in urban Linwei District or the loess tableland, both of significant interest for scenario studies in 494 355 this area. 495 496 356 Estimates of ground shaking for the 1556 and 1568 earthquakes were prepared using the 497 357 methods of Chen et al. ([55], this issue), to confirm that the M~7 1568 Shaanxi Gaoling 498 358 earthquake was the appropriate choice. Local ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are 499 359 not available for the Weihe basin and, although commonly used GMPEs contain some 500 360 information from earthquakes within mainland China, such data are sparse and it was considered 501 502 9 503 504 505 506 507 361 essential to compare computed shaking intensity distributions with historic isoseismals for the 508 509 362 M8 ¼ 1556 Huaxian earthquake, which is the best documented of Weinan’s historical 510 363 earthquakes. It was found (Chen et al. [55], this issue) that a satisfactory fit to the historical 511 364 isoseismals could be obtained by using intensities having a uniformly lower probability of 512 365 exceedance than predicted by the median values of the parameters to the GMPE ASK13 (see 513 366 Chen et al. [55], this issue, Figures 4 and 5). The same GMPE and modelling assumptions used 514 367 for the 1556 earthquake were then used to compute shaking intensity distributions for the 515 368 scenario repeat of the M~7 1568 earthquake, for which considerably less historic documentation 516 369 is available. Based on studies by Feng et al. ([50], this issue), this earthquake was modelled as 517 370 occurring on a 56-km segment of the Weinan-Jinyang Fault, a 105km nearly east-west striking, 518 371 north-dipping normal fault. 519 520 372 4.2. Determining effects of potential fault rupture, liquefaction, and lateral spreading 521 522 373 According to recent studies (Feng et al. [50], this issue), causative Weinan-Jinyang fault 523 374 ruptured the surface in the 1568 Shaanxi Gaoling event, so the scenario assumes that surface 524 375 rupture occurs. Based on published scaling relationships [57], the amount of offset in the 525 376 scenario event is estimated to be between 0.6 m and 1 m, which is consistent with geologic 526 377 observations of offset on the order of 1 m (Feng et al. [50], this issue). The assumed scenario 527 378 surface trace was overlaid on satellite imagery to determine whether the scenario surface rupture 528 379 would intersect infrastructure. 529 380 Past earthquakes, including the 1556 M 8¼ Huaxian and 1501 Chaoyi earthquakes [52,58] 530 531 381 have triggered liquefaction in the Weihe basin. Based on liquefaction potential maps (Shaanxi 532 382 Earthquake Administration, unpublished report, 2011) reviewed by IGCEA team, saturated 533 383 alluvial soils near the Weihe River and local tributaries such as the Youhe River are expected to 534 384 be particularly susceptible to liquefaction. (Liquefaction refers to the phenomenon that occurs 535 385 when saturated sandy soils lose their strength due to earthquake shaking, often associated with 536 386 the flow and ejection of subsurface water and soil onto the ground surface.) Near the Weihe 537 387 River, liquefaction-induced lateral spreading may occur as subsurface layers of soil liquefy, 538 388 resulting in ground settlement, and large blocks of soil above them slide toward the free faces 539 389 created by the river’s steep banks. The team qualitatively estimated the impacts of liquefaction 540 390 on infrastructure by comparing the areas of liquefaction potential against infrastructure locations. 541 542 391 4.3. Estimating the extent of coseismic landslides 543 544 392 Several major northern China earthquakes since 1900, including the 1920 Haiyuan and 2008 545 393 Wenchuan earthquakes, have triggered numerous and deadly landslides. Historical records 546 394 indicate that the 1556 Huaxian earthquake [52,58] and the 1568 Shaanxi Gaoling earthquake (Ma 547 395 et al. [51], this issue) also triggered landslides in the Weinan area, but there is less detailed 548 396 information on the extent of landsliding or its consequences. Because landslide hazard appeared 549 397 significant, the PAGER-O team collaborated with researchers from a related project on 550 398 Community Based Disaster Risk Reduction in China (CBDRRiC), part of the same IRINHiC 551 552 399 China-UK collaboration program as PAGER-O. CBDRRiC researchers developed estimates of 2 553 400 the likelihood of significant landslides (>100 m in area) during the scenario event (Milledge and 554 401 Densmore, unpublished report, 2018). Technical details of the methodology are reported here, 555 402 because, unlike other components, they do not appear elsewhere in this issue. 556 557 558 10 559 560 561 562 563 403 To create estimates, Milledge and Densmore (unpublished report, 2018) differentiated 564 565 404 between areas underlain by loess and by bedrock because these rock or stratum types show 566 405 important differences in coseismic landsliding. Hill slopes within the Weinan region considered 567 406 by PAGER-O can be divided into two broad material types that have very different material 568 407 strengths: loess, which is weakly-consolidated fine-grained sediment deposited by wind, and all 569 408 other rock types, collectively termed ‘bedrock’. While this is a very simplified division, it is 570 409 noticeable at the landscape scale. Loess underlies the broad tableland immediately to the south of 571 410 urban Linwei district (colloquially, Weinan city) and the short but steep hillslopes that form the 572 411 margins of the tableland and the valleys that dissect it. Bedrock underlies the higher mountainous 573 412 areas to the south and southeast of Weinan city. 574 413 Landslide hazard was estimated with statistical models trained on exemplar coseismic 575 414 landslide inventories: the 1920 Haiyuan earthquake for loess areas, and the 2008 Wenchuan 576 415 earthquake for bedrock areas. Landslides triggered by the Haiyuan earthquake were derived from 577 416 the inventory of [59], while those triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake were derived from the 578 417 comprehensive inventory of [60]. 579 418 For each inventory, logistic regression was applied to develop a functional relationship 580 419 between peak ground acceleration (PGA), skyline angle of the topography, and landslide hazard 581 582 420 (the probability that a grid cell is covered by either scar or runout). Skyline angle was calculated 583 421 for each 90x90 m pixel (using [61]) from SRTM digital elevation data with a 90 m spatial 584 422 resolution. PGA estimates for the Wenchuan earthquake are from the USGS ShakeMap version 585 423 3.5.1586 [62]. Haiyuan earthquake shaking intensity estimates are from the Seismological 586 424 Institute of Lanzhou, CEA and the Seismological Team of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region 587 425 (quoted in [59]), converted to Modified Mercalli Intensity (using Appendix I of GB/T 17742- 588 426 1999) and then to PGA (using [63]). 589 427 Logistic regression equations were applied to forward-predict landslide probability for the 590 428 two separate domains in the Weinan study area mapped as loess and bedrock, using the 591 429 parameters from their respective exemplar earthquakes. The same method as for the training 592 430 inventories [61] was used to derive skyline angle from SRTM elevation data. PGA estimates for 593 431 the PAGER-O scenario earthquake were linearly interpolated to the same 90 m grid. Finally, the 594 432 two coseismic landslide probability predictions for loess and bedrock areas were combined to 595 433 generate a single landslide hazard map. Use of different logistic regression equations for the two 596 434 different domains is a novel feature of this work. 597 435 Ten scenario realizations of landslide occurrence were generated from the landslide 598 599 436 probability map to provide an indication of potential landslide impacts that could be more readily 600 437 understood. Loess and bedrock domains were treated separately, picking landslides from the 601 438 appropriate empirical size distributions of the Haiyuan [59] and Wenchuan [60] inventories, then 602 439 randomly assigning their locations guided by the landslide probability from the hazard map and 603 440 constrained by a feasibility rule such that landslides were only placed where there was sufficient 604 441 relief for them to occur. The total landslide area for each realization was defined by the expected 605 442 landslide area from the landslide probability map. 606 607 443 4.4. Modeling building damage, casualties, and direct economic losses 608 609 444 Two research teams prepared loss estimates related to building damage in the urban and rural 610 445 areas of Linwei and Huazhou districts, respectively. Due to significant differences in the building 611 446 stock and number of buildings to cover, the teams used different approaches. Li et al. [64] and 612 447 Liu et al. [65] (this issue) from Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration (IGCEA) 613 614 11 615 616 617 618 619 448 and China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC) presented new methods involving the 620 621 449 combination of remote sensing, building-relevant local knowledge, and broad online data 622 450 resources [66,67] used for rural areas, while Wang and Gao [68] and Wang and Wang [69] (this 623 451 issue) from China Earthquake Disaster Prevention Center (CEDPC), described new methods 624 452 used for urban parts, though the central logic of loss estimation calculations adhered to existing, 625 453 tested approaches that are described in the relevant national standard GB/T 19428-2014: Code 626 454 for earthquake loss estimation and its information management system [45]. 627 455 Both teams collected large georeferenced building inventory datasets, and followed the 628 456 general procedures in government standard GB/T 19428-2014.These procedures specify that 629 457 estimates of damage be made for each intensity VI through X on the Chinese Seismic Intensity 630 458 Scale (GB/T17742-2008, included as an appendix in Ma et al. [51], this issue). Using the 631 459 scenario shaking intensity maps from Chen et al. [55] (this issue), the research teams assigned 632 460 the correct intensity to the georeferenced building inventory with the help of the spatial-join tool 633 461 of ArcGIS V10 software to arrive at the overall loss estimate. Damage matrices and vulnerability 634 462 functions that form the basis for building damage estimates were developed using damage data 635 463 from Chinese historical earthquakes. For urban areas, this included a large database of damaged 636 464 masonry buildings [70] and published damage data from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and 637 638 465 several subsequent earthquakes in China with M>6. For rural buildings, vulnerability functions 639 466 were created on the basis of historical destructive earthquake records and corresponding 640 467 earthquake loss evaluation compilations (1993-2016), employing the fitting method of beta 641 468 probability density functions (BPDF), in order to estimate losses for intensities above VIII for 642 469 which data are scarce, as Li et al. [64] (this issue) describe. Casualties and economic losses were 643 470 estimated using published relationships [70] based on data from less recent Chinese earthquakes. 644 471 We assumed the scenario earthquake occurs at 2:02 pm on a Saturday in April. 645 646 472 4.5. Understanding potential threats to utility infrastructure and transportation systems 647 648 473 Like any sizeable city, Weinan relies on its water, electric power, communications, gas and 649 474 fuel, and transportation infrastructure to function. Weinan is located in a key corridor between 650 475 Xi’an and Beijing (more broadly, between eastern and western China), and important 651 476 transportation routes such as the G30 expressway, National Road 310, and regular and high- 652 477 speed rail lines pass through Linwei and Huazhou districts. Weinan’s location in the Weihe basin 653 478 means that components of these infrastructure systems are located in areas susceptible to ground 654 479 failure, cross active faults, or are close enough to them to experience strong shaking. 655 480 Infrastructure locations are also constrained to some degree by the presence of the Weihe River 656 481 floodplain; the G30 expressway and regular rail lines run just north of the northern margin of the 657 482 Weinan loess tableland, and of the Huashan mountain front, avoiding the floodplain. Only the 658 483 high-speed rail line and local roads and rail lines are located out in the basin. 659 660 484 We focused on identifying concerns about the intersection of utility and transportation 661 485 infrastructure with known geologic hazard areas, such as locations where infrastructure crosses 662 486 active faults and areas of heightened landslide susceptibility or high liquefaction potential. 663 487 Publicly available satellite imagery and limited field observations were the main tools to 664 488 understand the severity of geologic hazard impacts on them. 665 489 Because water systems are critical for overall resilience of an area and past earthquakes 666 490 demonstrate that system damage frequently causes water service interruptions [71,72,73]. The 667 491 team’s water system engineer, landslide geologist, and structural geologists conducted joint 668 492 fieldwork with local EA and water agency staff at the key water infrastructure sites, such as the 669 670 12 671 672 673 674 675 493 main drinking water reservoirs and treatment plants. This transdisciplinary process allowed the 676 677 494 team to rapidly understand the multiple disciplinary dimensions of the water system’s earthquake 678 495 risk problems. Based on these consultations with local water professionals/staff and fieldwork, 679 496 we developed a qualitative understanding of the four subsystems (using the classification of [72]) 680 497 that comprise the water supply system in Linwei and Huazhou districts: raw water supply 681 498 systems, treatment systems, transmission systems and distribution systems, and of their potential 682 499 seismic and seismic-induced geo-hazard vulnerabilities. 683 500 As frequently occurs in other countries due to security concerns, it was difficult for utility 684 501 system operators to share information on their systems with anyone outside the organization. 685 502 This is particularly true for operators of electric power and gas systems; the team was able to 686 503 obtain only minimal information on these systems. However, utility and transportation system 687 504 operators can use this scenario as a starting point to prepare their own detailed loss estimates for 688 505 their systems, using the scenario shaking and identified areas of higher susceptibility to ground 689 506 failure of various types. We also investigated infrastructure interdependencies qualitatively, with 690 507 a focus on identifying areas in which damage and loss of function in one system would 691 508 substantially adversely impact another. 692 693 509 4.6. Understanding social impacts and bottom-up earthquake DRR-focused issues 694 695 510 Apart from modelling typical impacts on the local population and economy, such as 696 511 casualties, injuries, ‘homeless population’ who need temporary shelter, and direct economic loss, 697 512 (see Li et al. [64], this issue), and trying to understand in the sense of a pilot study what other 698 699 513 situations the general public and local community (village) would face, apart from physical 700 514 damage of buildings (see Liu et al. [65], this issue), we particularly emphasized on how aware 701 515 local people at the grass-roots are of earthquake issues, to what extent they have practised 702 516 earthquake preparedness and mitigation, and how resilient they are currently. We believe this 703 517 context is a contributing factor that helps determine whether our scenario work can be 704 518 understood and used more broadly, and if so, how we should make our results and products more 705 519 useful. We also believe understanding this context is crucial for improving relevant bottom-up 706 520 earthquake DRR approaches. 707 521 To obtain this big picture, the IGCEA team, collaborating with educators from Beijing 708 522 Normal University, firstly proposed an education-oriented framework of public awareness of 709 523 earthquake disasters and two actor level-sensitive models of personal and household earthquake 710 524 resilience. For the awareness framework, we established it after carefully examining the 711 525 implications of UNISDR’s general term of public awareness [74], systematically summarizing 712 526 our 10 year-long similar prior work (e.g., [75]), and incorporating the enlightenment through 713 527 careful study of what Environmental Education Objectives mean [76,77] in particular. We value 714 528 UNESCO-UNEP's Environmental Education Objectives because they are all very “actual 715 716 529 application-oriented,” thus we think the proper intake of such understanding of UNESCO-UNEP 717 530 is also helpful for dealing with practical earthquake disaster education issues, and beneficial for 718 531 society by raising people’s earthquake disaster awareness through better education practices. 719 532 Generally, UNESCO-UNEP's Environmental Education Objectives are as follows: to help 720 533 individuals and social groups to acquire “awareness, knowledge, attitudes, skills” of/for 721 534 (resolving) environmental problems and to facilitate them to “participate” in actual actions. For 722 535 the two resilience models, we mainly based them on our similar prior work (e.g., [75]) and 723 536 UNISDR’s definition of resilience [74,78], and also incorporated relevant pieces from disciplines 724 537 outside geo-sciences and engineering, including understanding of people’s psychological 725 726 13 727 728 729 730 731 538 resilience and family resilience from psychology and family studies [79,80,81,82]. With these 732 733 539 frameworks and models, we then developed a large set of earthquake disaster awareness and 734 540 resilience measurement questionnaires (over 20 in total). These tools closely align with broad 735 541 China contexts (e.g., the nation’s powerful and effective top-down disaster management, which 736 542 might cause the general public to shift too much responsibility to the government and lower their 737 543 own motivation to prepare) and various local realities (hazard and disaster, building and housing 738 544 practices, disaster management, education and disaster education, etc.) and to deliberately target 739 545 different public groups: primary and high school students in different grades, their parents and 740 546 teachers, and broad general public. In 2018, both pilot and formal surveys that covered almost 741 547 the entire Weinan prefectural area (not just Linwei and Huazhou districts) were completed, with 742 548 over 15,000 copies of various questionnaire data collected. 743 549 With a multi-hazard point of view, the Poly-U team then used structured face-to-face 744 550 interviews to look at hazard and disaster understanding, and actual disaster reduction practices of 745 551 the rural population in the study area. They conducted interviews in three carefully selected 746 552 sample villages (communities) in Linwei district, which have distinct topographical and 747 553 geomorphologic differences: Weihe basin, loess tableland, and Qinling mountains, where 748 554 commonly experienced natural hazards are also different. Apart from addressing people’s risk 749 750 555 perception, disaster preparedness, adaptation intentions, interpersonal communications, and 751 556 associated interaction mechanism(s) between them, this team particularly emphasized the 752 557 relationship between poverty and disasters. The three case study villages are all the government- 753 558 named “poverty villages” (e.g., Yu et al. [54], this issue; and [83]). Incorporating poverty issues 754 559 becomes very relevant when dealing with disaster risk reduction, because poverty and natural 755 560 disasters are frequently “twin brothers” in many rural areas in mainland China. Poverty 756 561 alleviation and disaster reduction should be synergistic; people living in poverty are frequently 757 562 more vulnerable to disasters (e.g., [84,85]; and Yu et al. [54], this issue). And most importantly, 758 563 integrating earthquake disaster reduction mobilization into poverty alleviation activities might be 759 564 more effective for the general public in such areas, because people may view strong earthquakes 760 565 as being too far removed from their daily life. 761 566 Based on these social science-focused studies and thinking, the necessity of conveying the 762 567 role that social vulnerability, for example “poverty”, plays in exacerbating disaster risk shaped 763 568 greatly the risk communication strategy for the scenario results. This included prominently 764 569 featuring a more vulnerable population common in the poor rural area of Weinan, and most poor 765 570 rural areas of mainland China—so-called “left-behind children”—as main characters in the 766 767 571 fictional narrative describing what happens during and after the scenario earthquake. 768 572 As scenario work progressed, it became clearer that “community-based disaster risk 769 573 reduction (CBDDR), school-based DRR, family-based DRR, and broad disaster reduction 770 574 knowledge dissemination and education” should be the most feasible and sustainable linkages 771 575 between top-down and bottom-up earthquake DRR approaches, because these items are all 772 576 closely related to government or its relevant agencies’ daily responsibilities and functions. For 773 577 example, promoting “disaster reduction knowledge dissemination and education” has long been a 774 578 key daily function of the CEA system. We invested great effort to produce interesting scenario 775 579 narratives useful for these DRR education functions. 776 580 777 778 779 780 781 782 14 783 784 785 786 787 581 5. Scenario results and findings regarding Weinan earthquake risk 788 789 582 A repeat of the 1568 M~7 Northeast Xi’an / Shaanxi Gaoling earthquake in present-day 790 791 583 Linwei and Huazhou districts would have devastating consequences: thousands of building 792 584 collapses, over 2100 deaths, more than 10,000 serious injuries, substantial damage to 793 585 infrastructure and disruption of utility services, and over 41 billion Yuan RMB in direct 794 586 economic losses from building damage alone which almost equals the present-day annual GDP 795 587 of the two districts (46.55 billion Yuan RMB in 2017). Repairing the damage to infrastructure 796 588 and restoring services would add substantial costs. Unreinforced masonry buildings, most 797 589 prevalent in rural areas but also present in urban parts of the study districts, would suffer the 798 590 most damage. Fig. 2 shows the extent of building damage, using a damage rate allowing 799 591 comparisons of damage severity. 800 592 801 802 a b 803 804 805 806 807 808 809 810 811 812 813 814 815 c d 816 817 818 819 820 821 822 823 824 825 826 827  828     Damage Rate (%) 829    0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 75 830     831 593 832 594 Fig. 2. Estimated damage rate of buildings with different damage degrees: a) slight damage; b) moderate damage; c) severe 595 damage; and d) collapse. The regions marked in green and blue respectively show the locations of the urban area of Linwei and 833 596 Huazhou. 834 597 835 598 836 837 838 15 839 840 841 842 843 599 Rural areas in western Linwei district are among the areas that would experience the heaviest 844 845 600 damage, due to very strong shaking. Most rural buildings in these areas were not constructed to 846 601 any building code and without any earthquake-resistant measures. In rural Linwei, nearly 9,840 847 602 houses with an area of 1.3 million square metres of these masonry buildings alone would 848 603 collapse, and a further 22,350 houses with an area of 3.0 million square metres would be too 849 604 badly damaged to use. In urban Linwei, small commercial and older residential masonry 850 605 buildings would also suffer proportionally heavier damage. Many of these buildings were built 851 606 before modern earthquake-resistant codes. In newer buildings, damage to finishes and partition 852 607 walls would need repair. Huazhou district is further from the portion of the fault that ruptures, so 853 608 the shaking is not as strong and there would be less damage. 854 609 Unfortunately, infrastructure near the northern tableland margin is exposed both to long- 855 610 runout loess landslides and to strong shaking and fault rupture from the Weinan-Jinyang fault 856 611 that runs near the tableland margin in this area. Landslides along the margins of the loess 857 612 tableland (estimated to be 30-40 landslides with area >8000 m2) and along its valleys (estimated 858 613 to 70-110 landslides with area >8000 m2) would damage infrastructure, including roads, rail lines 859 614 and the Youhe Reservoir, urban Linwei’s secondary drinking water reservoir, and disrupt access 860 615 to the tableland, as Fig. 3 shows. In the Weihe River flood plain, liquefaction would damage 861 862 616 roads, water lines, irrigation canals, and buildings. Along the Weihe River itself, thin layers of 863 617 soil are expected to liquefy, causing large areas of soil above them to slide slowly toward the 864 618 river, a process known as lateral spreading. Floodwalls and embankments would be damaged in 865 619 several locations, causing significant damage to flood protection systems for Linwei district. 866 620 Vertical offsets of up to 1 m created by surface rupture of the Weinan-Jinyang fault would 867 621 damage roads, rail lines, pipes, and flood protection structures crossing the fault. 868 622 869 870 871 872 873 874 875 876 877 878 879 880 881 882 883 884 885 886 887 888 889 890 891 892 893 894 16 895 896 897 898 899 900 901 902 903 904 905 906 907 908 909 910 911 912 913 914 915 916 917 918 919 920 921 922 923 924 925 623 926 624 Fig. 3. Probability of landslides with area greater than 100 m2 during the scenario earthquake. Note the concentration of potential 927 625 landsliding along the northern edge of the tableland, located just south of Weinan city, and in the incised valleys within the 626 tableland. 928 627 929 628 930 629 Damage to the water system would leave some local residents without water service for 931 932 630 hours to months, depending on their location. Some facilities are expected to lose pumping 933 631 capacity due to power outages caused by damage to the electrical system. Loess landslides along 934 632 the tableland valley margin may damage the Youhe Reservoir and could affect the dam itself. 935 633 The primary drinking water reservoir for Linwei district, the Jian Yu reservoir, is located far 936 634 enough away that it should escape any significant damage. Soil failures would damage the canals 937 635 and buried pipelines that bring water from the Yellow River to the new North water treatment 938 636 plant, interrupting its supply. In the treatment plants, buildings crack and equipment slides and 939 637 overturns. Unanchored chlorine tanks would roll from their cradles, break their lines, and release 940 638 dangerous gas; these can easily be restrained. In rural areas, brick water towers located above 941 639 borewells would suffer heavy damage, and some would collapse. Even towers that have been 942 640 taken out of service pose a hazard to people nearby. 943 641 These results illustrate several major earthquake risk problems Weinan faces: 944 642 • Seismically vulnerable unreinforced masonry residential buildings, both in urban and 945 643 rural areas; 946 947 644 • Older hospitals; 948 645 • Water system vulnerabilities; 949 950 17 951 952 953 954 955 956 646 • Areas susceptible to earthquake-induced landslides along the tableland margin and 957 647 valleys, and along the mountain front in Huazhou district; 958 648 • Areas with soils susceptible to liquefaction and liquefaction-induced lateral spreading; 959 649 • Infrastructure (roads, railways, gas pipelines, etc.) that crosses major local active faults or 960 650 is exposed to landslides, liquefaction or lateral spreading; and 961 651 • Vulnerabilities created by family separation and the prevalence of rural households 962 652 consisting of “left-behind” children, grandparents, and in some cases, women. 963 653 964 654 These risk problems are expected to create substantial consequences in a number of different 965 655 potential damaging earthquakes, not only the scenario event. Weinan leaders and residents can 966 656 begin to address these problems by taking practical measures such as: educating and empowering 967 657 rural owner-builders on construction of earthquake-resistant buildings; replacing older, 968 658 vulnerable hospitals with new earthquake-resistant ones and instituting functional continuity 969 970 659 programs that seismically protect equipment and backup utility systems and implement 971 660 preparedness measures; improving infrastructure systems and making them more robust and 972 661 redundant over time; avoiding new development in geologic hazard zones such as along active 973 662 faults and areas of high landslide and liquefaction hazard; and planning for the types of damage 974 663 and consequences that this scenario describes. Infrastructure system operators can assess the risk 975 664 earthquakes pose to their systems, and prepare their own internal loss estimates and scenarios, as 976 665 an extension of this scenario. 977 666 978 979 667 6. Risk communication approaches to disseminate and use the scenario 980 981 668 We chose to present the scenario’s main findings and recommendations to local officials and 982 669 the public using storytelling approaches, in order to make the technical information accessible 983 670 and more approachable for people who are not earthquake and disaster professionals, and to 984 671 motivate action. Storytelling approaches provide a powerful method of influencing behaviour 985 672 and decision-making (e.g., [86,87,88,89]). To do this, we prepared two versions of a fictional 986 673 narrative that describe a local rural family’s experiences in the earthquake and its aftermath 987 674 [90,91]. According to communications with local officials, they were most interested in the 988 675 personal story format, compared with other possible formats such as a technical narrative 989 676 arranged by topic, a newspaper story, and an impersonal narrative arranged by time of 990 677 occurrence. For technical and research audiences, including those outside China, we prepared the 991 992 678 papers in this issue and elsewhere. 993 679 We first prepared a narrative story for local agencies, with boxes, graphics, and maps 994 680 presenting the loss estimation results, key technical details, risk problems, recommendations, and 995 681 associated earthquake DRR policy information woven into the storyline. The narrative helps 996 682 people in these agencies visualize the losses described in the loss estimate, as well as important 997 683 impacts–such as lifeline interdependencies–that are difficult to quantitatively model using 998 684 currently available approaches, so as to improve to associated top-down DRR practice. Fig. 4 999 685 provides an example illustration and a paragraph of the story, describing the reaction of parents 1000 686 who finally reach their rural family home from the cities where they work (Shanghai and Xi’an) 1001 687 only to find it severely damaged, and their children, left behind with their grandmother while 1002 688 they worked, missing. 1003 689 1004 1005 1006 18 1007 1008 1009 1010 1011 1012 After four long hours, the truck rolled to a stop in the 1013 lane outside their house, and Haiyan jumped out. 1014 With Jianguo behind her, she ran through the gate 1015 into the courtyard. 1016 “Xiaoshuai! Xiaomei! Ma! We’re here!” she 1017 shouted. Everything was completely still. She dashed 1018 1019 around to the back of the house, and saw the gaping 1020 hole in the back corner. It appeared there had been a 1021 rescue of some sort – bricks were piled in odd spots 1022 and boards of different lengths and sizes were lying 1023 about. That meant someone had been underneath all 1024 those bricks. Haiyan couldn’t breathe for a moment. 1025 Jianguo held her by both shoulders. 1026 “They are going to be okay. They are going to be 1027 1028 okay, Haiyan. Maybe they’re at the Wang or Zhang 1029 house,” Jianguo said slowly. “Let’s go.” 1030 690 1031 691 Fig. 4. Example illustration by Siu Kuen Lai, and story paragraph from the narrative version for government officials. 1032 692 1033 693 1034 694 For the general public, we adapted the story into a short graphic novel, removed overly 1035 695 technical information, and added practical preparedness tips for local families. We carefully 1036 696 constructed the plot of the story to highlight key earthquake risk problems facing Weinan, such 1037 697 as: seismically vulnerable rural housing inhabited by populations comprised mainly of older 1038 698 people and “left behind” children; older seismically vulnerable urban buildings; landslides in the 1039 699 loess tableland; damage to the health system; and disruptions to transportation, communications, 1040 700 and utility service. We designed our characters to experience realistic emotions and to model a 1041 701 progression in attitude from being indifferent to earthquake risk, to actively adopting important 1042 702 earthquake safety measures such as building an earthquake-resistant house. It is our intent that 1043 703 readers become educated and then motivated to act to make themselves and their families safer 1044 1045 704 from earthquakes. We created these two different versions of narratives simultaneously, with the 1046 705 hope to facilitate bridging the gap between top-down and bottom-up earthquake DRR approaches, 1047 706 (for details, see the introduction to our narratives in Chinese [91] and English [90]). 1048 707 1049 1050 708 7. Discussion of project effectiveness 1051 1052 709 The project results show that scenarios, especially when constructed using transdisciplinary 1053 710 or pan-participatory methodology are a practicable approach to address the gap between top- 1054 711 down and bottom-up disaster risk reduction policies and practice in China. For some time, China 1055 712 has recognised the need for greater engagement with local communities, civil society 1056 713 organizations, and local interests in DRR (e.g., [92,93]). The results of this project, however, also 1057 714 show that scenarios’ effectiveness in addressing this gap will depend on how well their 1058 715 transdisciplinary process is implemented. In this respect, the PAGER-O scenario achieved to a 1059 716 great extent the objectives it set out at the start. It has proven effective in generating technically 1060 717 credible science, and disaster loss estimates to underpin the scenario results, and in producing 1061 1062 19 1063 1064 1065 1066 1067 718 opportunities for close interaction among various researchers and local stakeholders as detailed 1068 1069 719 in this paper and in the remaining papers of this issue. 1070 720 In the project closing workshop in January 2019 and in the IRNHiC program’s final 1071 721 conference in March 2019, the transdisciplinary process received much praise from the audience 1072 722 and from Chinese stakeholders, as having achieved more than what is usually expected from 1073 723 conventional academic research. For example, an Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) 1074 724 China representative identified PAGER-O as one of the few examples in China’s disaster 1075 725 research field of integration between the ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ (or physical and social) sciences to 1076 726 produce earthquake risk analysis and local engagement on earthquake risk governance. The 1077 727 scenario narratives received particular recognition from all stakeholders participating in the 1078 728 January and March meetings, as innovative tools to communicate earthquake risk and to educate 1079 729 both officials and the general public. Moreover, the team also learned important lessons during 1080 730 collaboration, which have implications for the China context and for methods used 1081 731 internationally (i.e., the transdisciplinary approach). 1082 732 1083 1084 733 7.1. Implementation of transdisciplinary in building the earthquake scenario 1085 1086 734 Transdisciplinary processes of knowledge generation involve co-analysis of problems and 1087 735 co-production of solutions involving actors with diverse scientific and societal views of the 1088 736 problem who engage in mutual learning in an iterative fashion [94]. In China’s disaster reduction 1089 737 context this also involves the balance between and the engagement with actors in both top-down 1090 1091 738 systems and bottom-up networks. While broad and iterative participation of international, 1092 739 national and provincial experts and the provincial government (i.e. Shaanxi EA) and some 1093 740 relevant Weinan agencies (e.g., Weinan EA) was achieved in the project, the involvement of 1094 741 certain groups of local end-users was either less than planned (e.g., local NGOs, key public 1095 742 service providers), or a bit behind relative to the ideal process of a scenario effort (e.g., our large 1096 743 scale local public and community-focused surveys and interviews were administrated a bit late, 1097 744 as explained previously). Our interactions with local stakeholders have focused more on 1098 745 gathering information to develop the scenario and to understand various local contexts and 1099 746 current status and less on co-analysis and co-production with double-loop learning. This is a 1100 747 combined effect of multiple causes: local officials and people’s diverse attitudes and varied 1101 748 levels of enthusiasm towards the scenario work, time and resource limitation, and interest in 1102 749 addressing infrequently-occurring earthquakes when faced with daily challenges. Future 1103 750 transdisciplinary scenario building efforts should try to balance them properly. With China’s 1104 751 positive record of policy experimentation (e.g., [95]), it would be interesting to experiment with 1105 752 approaches that include more co-analysis and co-production, with associated double-loop 1106 753 learning, in future scenario development efforts. 1107 1108 754 7.2. Impacts from the nation’s powerful top-down administration system 1109 1110 755 The earthquake disaster reduction approach in China is essentially top-down, which is highly 1111 1112 756 effective in mobilizing large-scale disaster reduction activities. Many other large scale initiatives, 1113 757 including application-oriented disaster research utilize a top-down approach. In our experience, 1114 758 clearly understanding local receptivity and then obtaining active support from local government 1115 759 and its relevant agencies is the first priority for smoothly and successfully implementing a large 1116 760 scale scenario-building project in China. This receptivity sometimes or in some cases appears 1117 1118 20 1119 1120 1121 1122 1123 761 even independent of whether research team has advanced expertise or financial resources. Our 1124 1125 762 team experienced very different levels of receptivity, depending on the agency. We received 1126 763 tremendous support for the building surveys and the local public and community-focused 1127 764 surveys and interviews, to the extent that a considerable part of the data collection was free of 1128 765 cost to the project. This allowed the team to conduct very detailed large scale examinations on 1129 766 the associated issues. In contrast, due to relevant agencies’ concerns on the security of key 1130 767 lifelines as discussed in the infrastructure section, there was basically no way for the team (even 1131 768 mainland China members) to obtain quantitative data on them. 1132 1133 769 7.3. Impacts of the varied “general disaster literacy” and receptivity of local agencies and 1134 770 people 1135 1136 771 A scenario building effort always involves many local agencies and people, because a 1137 772 damaging earthquake can impact almost every part of a society. Our scenario effort was 1138 773 welcomed by the local government in general. However, earthquake safety is not among the top 1139 774 several daily responsibilities or functions of most agencies. Moreover, because damaging 1140 775 earthquakes are rare in any one location, they fall further down the list of priorities. This 1141 776 inevitably results in these agencies having a lower level of general disaster literacy and placing 1142 777 less value on mitigation and preparedness activities than agencies with more direct responsibility 1143 778 for earthquake safety (e.g., agencies focused on earthquakes, land resources, civil affairs, and the 1144 779 like). For the general public, the situation is the same. Keeping this in mind, the research team 1145 780 must seek a proper balance of what is feasible versus the ideal, and identify entry points to 1146 1147 781 engage local agencies in ways that align well with their responsibilities. 1148 782 Our project provides several examples. We devoted major efforts to CBDRR, school-based 1149 783 DRR, and broad disaster education, because they are all within the daily responsibilities for 1150 784 relevant local agencies (e.g., earthquake, civil affairs, and education), thus should be the most 1151 785 feasible and sustainable linkages between top-down and bottom-up earthquake DRR approaches. 1152 786 We focused on creating narratives as our key scenario products, because innovative disaster 1153 787 education material is very limited not only in the study area, but also in the whole nation. We 1154 788 relied on the local education agency’s help to complete our very large scale surveys, not only 1155 789 because they believed that our surveys are very useful for them to improve their own daily duties 1156 790 (and are thus very willing to help us implement them efficiently), but also because with their 1157 791 help we can more easily and widely access the ideas of the local public whose overall general 1158 792 disaster literacy and associated cooperation attitudes are even more diverse. We prepared 1159 793 questionnaires for both students and their parents, because China’s education field has a long- 1160 794 established idea in safety education called “big hand in small hand” (i.e., parents learn from their 1161 795 children). When doing rural CBDRR-focused interviews, we combined the topics of disaster 1162 796 reduction with poverty alleviation, not only because the government called for this combination 1163 1164 797 for many years, but also because this may make local villagers more willing to talk with us. We 1165 798 investigated earthquake-induced landslides, not only because it is important for our scenario 1166 799 analysis to consider them, but also because landslides are more common than earthquakes, thus 1167 800 may attract more attention from local agencies and people. Accepting the varied general disaster 1168 801 literacy of the target population and finding appropriate entry points is not only essential for 1169 802 scenario development and other transdisciplinary research in China, but also in other countries. 1170 1171 1172 1173 1174 21 1175 1176 1177 1178 1179 803 7.4. Time, schedule, and language 1180 1181 804 Our original plan in the PAGER-O’ proposal was “GHI will lead the production of a detailed 1182 1183 805 scenario for one town or township area first, and then the team (especially local researchers and 1184 806 local agencies) would replicate this scenario process in several other towns or townships with 1185 807 distinct physical and socio-economic settings. However, in order to increase the 1186 808 representativeness of our scenario development in both the national and international sense (for 1187 809 China, a model scenario building on both China’s existing ELE work and international 1188 810 experience, while for the international research community, a scenario example defined by or 1189 811 from China contexts), we discussed through online communications since the initial planning 1190 812 workshop in Oxford (January, 2016) and then decided in the Beijing launch meeting (April, 2016) 1191 813 to change this original plan to focus on preparing a model scenario for a moderately-sized city 1192 814 (up to about 1 million people), which could include tens of towns and townships. This ambitious 1193 815 change means a great increment in workload and finally, a great increment in the time required. 1194 816 Second, the transdisciplinary approach and multilateral international collaboration featured 1195 817 significantly in our scenario development, which, however, is also a source of time cost. For 1196 818 example, considerable time was spent on the “intangibles” of the project, such as working across 1197 819 different countries, languages and local dialects, cultures and styles of working, and above all on 1198 820 integrating the different types of knowledge and even worldviews that each stakeholder had – a 1199 1200 821 core element that differentiates transdisciplinary from other approaches (single-discipline, multi- 1201 822 disciplinary, and even inter-disciplinary). As posited by [96], this involved: a) communicative 1202 823 integration that aimed at developing mutual understanding of common terms (e.g. different 1203 824 interpretations of ‘policy’ in Chinese and English language); b) social integration which allowed 1204 825 understanding of the different organisations’ interests and roles within local stakeholders and 1205 826 even within the project team; and c) cognitive integration which linked different knowledge 1206 827 bases, theoretical concepts and methods (e.g. understanding basic knowledge, logic, and 1207 828 terminology from other disciplines other than own) to create a common understanding. The team 1208 829 developed practical strategies for implementing the international collaboration, including regular 1209 830 and effective electronic collaboration amongst the large team (e.g., on-line meetings), and 1210 831 communicating with Shaanxi and Weinan stakeholders despite the shortcomings for technical 1211 832 discussions of best-available (and expensive) simultaneous interpretation. 1212 833 Future scenarios prepared in China can avoid some of these challenges. If scenarios are 1213 834 prepared without international participation, all the stakeholders would be familiar with the 1214 835 country context, cultures and working styles, and would be able to use a single language to 1215 836 reduce time and complexity in project execution and communication. 1216 837 1217 1218 838 7.5. Early results 1219 1220 839 It is still early to judge whether the project will prove successful in motivating relevant 1221 1222 840 agencies and the public to take actions to more effectively mitigate earthquake risk and increase 1223 841 resilience, or be replicated in other areas of China. But there are already signs that show positive 1224 842 impacts might take place in the future. For example, besides stakeholders’ enthusiasm about the 1225 843 innovative communication approach (storytelling-led narratives), there are signs of results uptake 1226 844 from the Shaanxi EA, which has introduced some ideas from the PAGER-O approach into their 1227 845 next five-year earthquake DRR plan. Huazhou district of Weinan has been in close contact with 1228 846 the research team to explore options to integrate the scenario narratives into a possible local 1229 1230 22 1231 1232 1233 1234 1235 847 “Earthquake Disaster Education Museum” that they would like to establish, as well as to explore 1236 1237 848 further ideas for development. Furthermore, Shaanxi EA plans to carry out an earthquake risk 1238 849 assessment, based on the experience of PAGER-O, in Baoji city, Shaanxi province. Zhejiang 1239 850 provincial EA also requested information and material on the scenario approach from the IGCEA 1240 851 team, so as to inform their own similar work. Shaanxi Gender Development Solution (Shaanxi 1241 852 GDS), a local NGO that focuses on women’s and children’s welfare, also expressed interest in 1242 853 collaborating with the team. 1243 854 1244 1245 855 8. Conclusions and recommendations for future work 1246 1247 856 The scenario development effort for Weinan included several notable features used for the 1248 857 first time in China, and some aspects that have not been included in international scenarios to 1249 858 this level of detail. These include: 1250 859 • A trans-disciplinary approach integrating, and giving equal emphasis to physical sciences, 1251 860 engineering, human and social sciences, and the arts. 1252 861 • A holistic scenario development effort, with a perspective that was as comprehensive as 1253 862 possible, addressing the full spectrum of earthquake risk problems and exploring associated 1254 863 risk reduction and resilience enhancement practices and policies. We began from tectonic 1255 864 and geophysical issues under the earth surface, then to buildings and lifelines, and then to 1256 1257 865 population and economy, and finally to the thinking of local public, in other words, from the 1258 866 material world to people’s mental world. 1259 867 • An integrated thought process of serving both government agencies and general public and 1260 868 grass-roots, and facilitating the combination between top-down and bottom-up DRR policies 1261 869 (e.g., by using two versions of narratives, for the general public and for officials). 1262 870 • Using storytelling, illustrations and both public and government versions of the narratives, to 1263 871 emphasize in particular how to make our scenarios easily understood both by the people in 1264 872 the relevant government agencies who are not hazard specialists, and by relevant local 1265 873 stakeholders in broad civil society. The graphic novel format used for the pubic scenario 1266 874 narrative document has not been implemented in international scenario practice to this level 1267 875 of detail. Our intent is to foster common understanding, attitudes, and emotions toward of 1268 876 earthquake disaster risk reduction, so as to motivate local agencies and general public to take 1269 877 action collectively to make Weinan more resilient and safer. 1270 1271 878 • Integrating understanding of scientists and researchers with those of local stakeholders. We 1272 879 believe it is local people themselves who know their communities and their environments 1273 880 best. We conducted participatory activities to the extent possible by holding various 1274 881 consultative meetings with local agencies and by conducting questionnaire surveys and 1275 882 interviews to understand the views of the local public. 1276 883 • A multi-scale perspective; for example, when estimating building losses, individual buildings 1277 884 in the urban part of the study area were addressed, while in the rural area, we addressed 1278 885 buildings in bulk at village level. In resilience studies, we addressed personal resilience, 1279 886 family resilience, community preparedness and resilience, and upward, with the aim of 1280 887 exploring the interface/interaction between top-down and bottom-up DRR policies and 1281 888 practices. 1282 1283 1284 1285 1286 23 1287 1288 1289 1290 1291 1292 889 • A combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis, which was essential given the limited 1293 890 time and resources, as well as difficulties in obtaining some key local data. Specifically, we 1294 891 were able to make extensive use of remote sensing, available online data and social surveys. 1295 892 1296 893 This effort has provided Weinan with substantial information regarding local earthquake risk 1297 894 and how it can be managed. If implemented, the recommendations made during the process will 1298 895 make Weinan residents safer from future earthquakes. 1299 896 For wider application in China, we recommend that scenario development processes be 1300 897 immediately followed by mitigation action planning processes (which were not possible during 1301 898 the PAGER-O project due to time and resource constraints), as a first step toward putting the 1302 899 scenario findings and recommendations into practice. It is also advisable to study the 1303 900 effectiveness of newer risk communication approaches and tools, such as the scenario narrative 1304 901 publications and related products. Future scenario efforts will be more effective if local 1305 902 stakeholders are more deeply involved, and if efforts more closely align with and leverage 1306 903 existing policies and practices, such as demonstration DRR communities. The initial results from 1307 904 the PAGER-O project indicate that scenarios are a promising approach to identifying earthquake 1308 1309 905 risks and communicating both the potential impacts and most importantly, what people can do 1310 906 about them. More work of this type has the potential to increase resilience, particularly in urban 1311 907 areas with complex earthquake risk challenges. 1312 908 1313 1314 909 Acknowledgments 1315 1316 910 This research was supported by the PAGER-O project [National Natural Science Foundation 1317 911 of China grant number 41661134013] as part of the UK-China Collaboration program Increasing 1318 912 Resilience to Natural Hazards in Earthquake-Prone regions in China (IRNHiC). The program 1319 913 was jointly funded by the Natural Environment Research Council and the Economic and Social 1320 914 Research Council of the UK [grant numbers NE/N012313/1, NE/N01233X/1], and by the 1321 915 National Natural Science Foundation of China. Yaohui Liu contributed to the graphics. Siu Kuen 1322 916 Lai illustrated, and Sandy Lui provided layout design for, the scenario publications described. 1323 917 The authors thank the anonymous reviewers, whose comments and insights improved the quality 1324 918 of the paper. 1325 1326 919 Author contributions 1327 1328 920 PIs Guiwu Su, John Young and Philip England provided project leadership; Janise Rodgers 1329 921 and Guiwu Su led scenario development; Philip England, Guiwu Su, Timothy Sim, Craig Davis, 1330 922 Arrietta Chakos, Emily So, John Young, Barry Parsons, Alexander Densmore, David Milledge, 1331 923 Janise Rodgers and Yue Cao provided disciplinary expertise; Wenhua Qi, Xiaoli Li, Lei Sun, 1332 924 Junlei Yu and David Milledge analyzed data; Janise Rodgers wrote the scenario narrative with 1333 925 assistance from Guiwu Su, Timothy Sim, Wenhua Qi, Chunlan Guo, Junlei Yu, Arrietta Chakos 1334 1335 926 and Philip England; Guiwu Su and the CEA team translated the narrative into Chinese; and 1336 927 Janise Rodgers, Guiwu Su, Wenhua Qi, David Milledge, Alexander Densmore, Craig Davis, 1337 928 Philip England, John Young, and Yue Cao wrote the paper. 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