Finlandization Towards a General Theory of Adaptive Politics

HANS MOURITZEN

Avebury Aldershot • Brookfield USA • Hong Kong • Singapore • Sydney Contents

List of figures xi List of tables xiii Abstract xv Preface xvi 1 A 'soft' introduction 1

PART I ADAPTIVE ACQUIESCENCE: A CONCEPTUAL ENQUIRY 2 An outline of a comprehensive typology 9 A note on terminology 11 3 Social science conceptualizations: some formal and other prerequisites 12 4 The literature on political adaptation: an initial survey 15 A note on cumulation 19 Some notes on related approaches 20 5 The modes of adaptation: criticism and elaborations of efforts in the literature 23 Adaptation: belief system, behaviour, or outcome? 24 Adaptation: which level of aggregation? 28 Who is the adaptor? 28 Adaptation by what means? 31 The values: are they allocated? 40 The values of regime adaptation 41 Modes of adaptation: comprehensive or issue-specific? 48 Modes of adaptation: comprehensive or relation-specific? 50 Modes of adaptation: eras or specific decisions? 54 Adaptation: relative to interdependence and challenges? 56 Modes of adaptation: summarizing our conceptual decisions 57 6 Adaptive acquiescence defined 61 7 Some fundamental types of adaptive acquiescence 63 8 Direct adaptive acquiescence vis-a-vis an actor: some further specifications and implications 69 Re 2 Adaptive acquiescence: how much autonomy? 69 Re 3 The concession-receiver 71 Re 3 Is there a conflict? 71 Re 3 Symmetry and 'fairness' 73 Re 3 The elusive nature of concessions 74 9 Strategies and modes of adaptation 75

PART II SOME CASES THAT QUALIFY AS ADAPTIVE ACQUIESCENCE 10 's Finlandization I: concessions, invisibility and invisible concessions 83 Introduction _ 83 The challenges to Danish regime values 84 Why Germany? 87 The strategies: an overview 88 The conceivable counterweights 90 Concessions, invisibility and invisible concessions 93 The fear of mediation 94 The League of Nations 95 Rules - and flexibility 101 In search of a treaty 103 Invisible defence 106 The interim period: the challenges reconsidered 107 Strategy during the interim period 108 The general field 108 Infringements on territory 110 Trade and double-play 111 Regime identity 113 Danish activism 116 vi Conclusions 118 Adapting words to concepts 123

11 Denmark's Finlandization II: concessions, bastions and persuasions 5 126 Saving neo-neutrality 126 The non-German challenges 128 The German threats and sanctions 131 Strategies and tactics: an overview 135 Concessions, bastions and persuasions 139 The field of general autonomy 139 The bastions of substantial policy 143 The welfare field 148 Values of identity 150 28 August: continuity or break? 153 Conclusions 156

12 's Finlandization: concessions, bastions and counterweight 161 Pre-9 April: threats and Swedish strategies 161 Was there a strategy of concessions? 163 9 April 1940-1943: challenges and power structure 166 Territory and general autonomy: the relevant power structure 166 Welfare: the relevant power structure 170 Regime identity: the relevant power structure 174 The strategies: an overview 175 Concessions, bastions and counterweight 177 Strategy during the war in Norway 177 The permittent agreement: saving neo-neutrality 181 Swedish mediation in the war? , 183 The March crisis 1941: getting a foothold 184 Sweden and 'Operation Barbarossa' 187 Facing raised expectations 191 The February crisis: reassurances and military counterweight 194 Trade negotiations: concessions and counterweight 195 Preserving regime identity 200 Swedish activism: German veto to power 206 Climbing the slope: the problem of demarcation 208 Trade and trains: facing the West 209 Trade and trains: facing the Germans 210 The Norwegian boats " 212 The identity sphere 212 vii The problem of demarcation: concluding remarks 213 Conclusions 214 13 Comparative status 219 The accompanying strategies and tactics 219 The modes of adaptation: were they issue-specific? 222 The modes of adaptation: were they relation-specific? 223 The slope of concessions: was it slippery? 224 The regimes: how far did they slide? 224 Value-infringements: the problem of additivity 225 The value-infringements: is there an identity problem? 226

PART III THE DYNAMICS OF ADAPTIVE ACQUIESCENCE 14 Nikolaj Petersen's theory of adaptation 229 15 In search of the source of dynamics: some a priori speculations 233 16 Relation between the strong, and the strategy of the weak 236 The 'normal' constellation 238 The adaptive acquiescence constellation 240 The tension-adaptation ideal type 244 The balance of power ideal type 246 If more than two salient actors 251 A note on rationality in the ideal types 252 17 An empirical challenge to the ideal types 256 The Danish regime 1935-40 256 The Danish regime 1940-43 264 The Swedish regime 1940-43 270 18 Status for the ideal types 280 The tension ideal type 280 Tension: was it a dynamic factor? 282 The balance of power ideal type 283 The balance of power: was it a dynamic factor? 286 19 The residual explanatory factors: can they supplement the ideal type? 287 The residual dynamic factors 288 Retarding factors in the sliding process 290

PART IV THE INERTIA OF ADAPTIVE ACQUIESCENCE 20 The inertia perspective 297 The locus and focus of inertia: some further specifications 299 viii 21 A typology for the study of inertia 301 22 Government/bureaucracy as a source of inertia 306 General, cognitive inertia (box 7) 306 General, institutional/procedural inertia (box 8) 310 Vested interests in the status quo (box 9) 313 Mode-specific, cognitive inertia (box 10) 317 Mode-specific, institutional/procedural inertia (box 11) 318 Mode-specific, vested interests (box 12) 322 Studying bureaucracy - without 'bureaucratic politics' 325 23 The internal environment as a source of inertia 326 General, cognitive inertia (box 1) 327 General institutional/procedural inertia (box 2) 327 Vested interests in the status quo (box 3) 328 Mode-specific, cognitive inertia (box 4) 329 Mode-specific, institutional/procedural inertia (box 5) 332 Mode-specific, vested interests (box 6) 333 24 The external environment as a source of inertia 335 General inertia (boxes 13-15) 335 Mode-specific, cognitive inertia (box 16) 337 Mode-specific, institutipnal/procedural inertia (box 17) 339 Mode-specific, vested interests (box 18) 340 25 Conclusions on mode inertia 342 Mode inertia in general: status on the typology 342 Inertia in connection with adaptive acquiescence: our conclusions 345 Inertia in our cases at hand 350 Inertia in our cases at hand: a diachronic perspective 355 26 A rough step-model for the interplay of dynamics and inertia 357 27 The factors of inertia: can they supplement the ideal type? 361

PART V SOME FURTHER CASES THAT QUALIFY - AND SOME NOTES ON A RELATED POSTURE 28 Some further cases that qualify 365 1944-present day 365 South Africa 1984-present day 370 29 Direct adaptive acquiescence: why so infrequent? 373 30 Some candidates for future adaptive acquiescence 376 376 Eastern Europe 377

ix Sweden 378 Nicaragua 379 31 Some comments on indirect adaptive acquiescence 380 Some cases thai? qualify 383 The indirect version: some notes on its means, its dynamics, and its inertia 385

PART VI CONCLUSIONS AND WIDER PERSPECTIVES 32 Adaptive acquiescence: what do we mean and what do we know? 393 33 Methodological issues 402 Ideal types and reality: tests, challenges and illustrations 402 Some comments on comparativism 410 Some notes on 'contemporary' vs. 'historical' cases 414 34 Suggestions for further research 419 35 Some reflections on policy relevance 422

APPENDICES Appendix A The relevant regime identity values in our cases at hand 429 Appendix B Danish summary (Dansk sammenfatning) 434

References 442

Index 457