March 2019

Monthly Forecast

1 Overview Overview 2 In Hindsight: Security Council Annual Report to the General France will hold the presidency in March. France issues: Federica Mogherini, the EU High Repre- Assembly and Germany, the Council president in April, will sentative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, 3 Status Update since our hold a “joint presidency” covering both months. is expected to brief the Council on UN-EU coop- February Forecast There will be one open debate on combating eration in maintaining international peace and 5 Mali the financing of terrorism, during which a resolu- security; and Slovakian Foreign Minister Miro- 6 Counter-Terrorism tion may be adopted. slav Lajčák, the current Chairperson-in-Office for The Council is expected to carry out a visiting the Organization for Security and Cooperation 7 Haiti mission to Mali. A briefing on the visiting mission in Europe (OSCE), will brief on OSCE activities. 8 Syria and a ministerial meeting on Mali with the par- Council members anticipate a briefing on 10 OSCE Briefing ticipation of Malian Prime Minister Soumeylou Haiti (MINUJUSTH), most likely from Special 10 South Sudan Boubèye Maïga are scheduled shortly after the Representative and head of MINUJUSTH, Helen delegation returns. Meagher La Lime, and will also consider the most 12 Afghanistan Regarding other African issues, there will be recent report on the implementation of resolution 13 EU-UN Briefing briefings, followed by consultations, on South 2410—which set a timeline for the gradual draw- 14 Democratic Republic of Sudan (UNMISS), the DRC (MONUSCO), and down of formed police units—and political and the Congo the Great Lakes Region. Consultations are also security developments in the context of the 15 15 Libya anticipated on Libya (UNSMIL) and the 1970 April expiry of MINUJUSTH’s mandate. 16 Yemen Libya sanctions regime. The Council is scheduled In a change of practice, the Council will hold to adopt resolutions renewing the mandates of its quarterly meeting on Afghanistan (UNAMA) 17 Great Lakes Region UNMISS, MONUSCO, and UNSOM (Somalia). as a briefing, followed by consultations, rather 18 Lebanon The Council will be briefed on Yemen on the than in debate format, prior to renewing the mis- 19 UNDOF (Golan Heights) implementation of resolution 2452, which estab- sion’s mandate later in the month. lished the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah The Council is also expected to adopt a resolu- Agreement (UNMHA). It will also receive the tion renewing the mandate of the Panel of Experts monthly briefings on the humanitarian situation, of the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee. the political process and the use of chemical weap- A briefing of the 1540 Sanctions Committee is ons in Syria. also anticipated during the month. Other Middle East issues that will be consid- There will be an informal interactive dialogue ered include: on the Middle East region. Arria-formula meet- • Israel/Palestine, the regular monthly meeting; ings are anticipated on women’s participation in • Lebanon, an update on the implementation of peace processes, on Crimea, and on criminal jus- resolution 1701, which called for a cessation tice and human rights. of hostilities between the Shi’a militant group Council members will continue to follow Hezbollah and Israel in 2006; and closely developments in Venezuela and may meet • UNDOF in the Golan Heights, the quarterly on this and other issues not on the programme report and most recent developments. as needed. Two meetings are anticipated on European

27 February 2019 This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org.

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Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: Security Council Annual Report to the General Assembly

Under the UN Charter, the Security Coun- was to be an analytical piece capturing the were to leave the Council at the end of the cil’s only clear obligation to the UN General year’s most important moments, assess- year—and thus no longer be among its mem- Assembly is to submit an annual report for its ing the Council’s ability to deal with prob- bers during the drafting—“the task of coor- consideration, as set out under Article 24(3). lems at hand, and signalling difficulties and dinating the introduction of the report shall For nearly three decades, the annual report areas for improvement. In addition, the then devolve on the member of the Council has been criticised by the UN membership. note said that starting in 2002, the intro- next in English alphabetical order and who The Council has, however, made efforts to duction would be drafted by the delegation will not be leaving the Security Council that address some of the problems. that held the July presidency—the first time calendar year”. It stipulated, however, that During the Cold War, the annual reports that members of the Council would take an the introduction should “be approved by all were often published with a delay—at active part in the elaboration of the report. members of the Council who served on the times, the wait was several years. Interest in Members would adopt the introduction in Council during the reporting period” and the annual report grew with the dramatic a public session to allow for exchanges of that the report would “continue to be adopt- increase in the Council’s activity in the early views on the text. The body of the report, ed at a public meeting of the Security Council, 1990s. After the report covering 16 June 1991 which would continue to be drafted by the at which members of the Council who wish to 15 June 1992 was submitted only in June Secretariat, was to be shortened significant- to do so may comment on the work of the 1993, too late to be discussed during the main ly and made more informative. Council for the period covered by the report”. part of the 47th session, the General Assem- The new format seemed to promise sub- The most recent version of the compre- bly adopted a resolution agreeing to hold stantive changes. In 2002, the introduction hensive compendium of Security Council a substantive debate on the annual reports was indeed analytical and quite concise. But working methods—the so-called Note 507, from the Security Council (A/RES/47/233). the improvements were short-lived. In the fol- which was updated in 2017 and issued as In subsequent General Assembly debates, lowing years the introduction became longer document S/2017/507—incorporated the members raised matters pertaining to the and lost its analytical edge. The only public 2015 document on the annual report with the content, format and timing of the report. The debate the Council has held on its annual addition of a few new elements, including a format of the annual reports—at the time, report also took place in 2002. Since then, it provision that the member drafting the intro- prepared entirely by the Secretariat—had has been adopted in a short routine session duction “may, when necessary, seek advice changed little since 1946, and was largely a with no discussion. from other members of the Council. It may compendium of Council documents, com- During successive annual General Assem- also consider organizing, where appropriate, munications received, and meetings held. It bly debates, members have continued to raise interactive informal exchanges of views with contained no analysis. concerns about the annual report, especially the wider membership.” In a June 1993 note by the president, the its dearth of analysis. With ongoing calls for Because of the transition to the new Council proclaimed that it would adopt the improvements, the Council’s subsidiary body reporting period, there was no annual report report in public and circulate its early draft responsible for much of its working methods to the General Assembly in 2016. The first to interested member states (S/26015). A deliberations, the Informal Working Group report prepared under the new procedure June 1997 note by the president announced on Documentation and Other Procedural (exceptionally covering 17 rather than 12 that “the report of the Council for future Questions (IWG), has discussed aspects of months) was adopted on 9 August 2017 and years will be changed, taking into account the annual report and introduced further discussed by the General Assembly during views expressed on the existing format” modifications. the final weeks of its 71st session. (S/1997/451). The changes included an ear- On the joint initiative of Lithuania and The experience of the first two years after lier deadline—30 August—for the Secretariat Russia, the IWG again revised the process moving to a calendar-year cycle with the to submit the draft in order that it could be for the elaboration of the annual report in aim of presenting the report to the Gener- adopted by the Council in time for a discus- 2015. The resulting note by the president, al Assembly late in the session has been of sion during the main session of the General S/2015/944 of 10 December 2015, changed much shorter, but also less focused, discus- Assembly. Yet member states continued to the reporting cycle to cover a calendar year, sion in the General Assembly. Both in 2017 complain that it remained a catalogue of starting with 2017. Since 1947, the Coun- and 2018, the drafts were finalised consider- documents and meeting dates, still lacking cil’s annual report had covered a period of ably later than stipulated (the deadlines for analysis and offering scant insight into how 12 months ending in June or July, relatively circulating the drafts to Council members the Council worked. close to the start of the General Assembly are 31 January for the introduction and 15 After extensive discussions on the for- session during whose main part it would be March for the body of the report). The Coun- mat and on including an element of analy- presented. The 2015 note moved the presen- cil adopted the drafts in August, pushing the sis the Council issued a note by the presi- tation of the report from the main part of the General Assembly discussion to near the end dent in 2002 entirely focused on the annual General Assembly’s regular session to the fol- of its session, with most delegations already report (S/2002/199). In it, the Council lowing spring. gearing up for the opening of the next ses- again acknowledged that it had reviewed the The note also specified that the introduc- sion. Once the Council succeeds in meeting report’s format having taken into account tion should be concise, not to exceed 10,000 its own deadline aspirations and, as intended, the views expressed during the debate on words, and would continue to be prepared the General Assembly discussion is held dur- the report at the 56th session of the Gen- under the coordination of the July presidency. ing the spring, it will be easier to assess the eral Assembly. Henceforth, the introduction If the member holding the July presidency impact of the revised process.

2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2019 Status Updates since our February Forecast

Somalia for Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, Simeón Belgium, the Dominican Republic, Equatorial On 1 February, the 751 Somalia Sanctions Oyono Esono Angue, chaired the meeting. Guinea, France, Kuwait, Peru, Poland, South Committee met with its Panel of Experts to Executive Secretary of the Gulf of Guinea Africa and the UK. The meeting was chaired discuss their programme of work for the year. Commission Florentina Adenike Ukonga and by Katarina Barley, the Federal Minister of On 7 February, Under-Secretary-General the Executive Director of the UN Office on Justice and Consumer Protection of Germany. for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rose- Drugs and Crime Yury Fedotov briefed. mary DiCarlo briefed Council members on Military Staff Committee her 30-31 January visit to Somalia. Sudan (Darfur) On 8 February, the Military Staff Committee On 7 February, the Security Council adopt- discussed the UN Intelligence Policy Frame- Mercenaries ed resolution 2455 extending the mandate of work and the work of MINUJUSTH. On On 4 February, the Security Council held a the Panel of Experts assisting the 1591 Sudan 22 February, it discussed the work of MIN- high-level debate on “Mercenary activities as Sanctions Committee until 12 March 2020 (S/ URSO and UNISFA. a source of insecurity and destabilization in PV.8458). The resolution expressed the Coun- Africa” (S/PV.8456). Equatorial Guinea cir- cil’s “intention to establish clear, well identified, Ukraine culated a concept note in preparation for the and measurable key benchmarks that could On 12 February, the Council held a meeting debate (S/2019/97). President Teodoro Obi- serve in guiding the Security Council to review on the situation in Ukraine (S/PV.8461). Rus- ang Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea measures on the Government of Sudan”. On sia requested the meeting to mark the anni- presided. UN Secretary-General António 25 February, the Council was briefed by Assis- versary of the “Package of Measures for the Guterres and Moussa Faki Mahamat (by tant Secretary-General for Africa Bintou Kei- Implementation of the Minsk Agreements”, VTC), Chairperson of the AU Commission, ta on UNAMID and the Secretary-General’s also known as the Minsk II agreement, adopt- briefed. Other than Council members, the 90-day report (S/2019/44). Assistant Secre- ed on 12 February 2015. Assistant Secre- CAR, Chad, Congo, Djibouti, Egypt, Gabon, tary-General of the UN Development Pro- tary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Rwanda and Sudan participated in the debate. gramme Mourad Wahba and Assistant Secre- Affairs Miroslav Jenča; Assistant Secretary- tary-General for Peacebuilding Support Oscar General for Humanitarian Affairs Ursula Children and Armed Conflict Fernandez-Taranco also briefed. The briefing Mueller; Chief Monitor of OSCE Special The Working Group on Children and Armed was followed by consultations. SMM Ertuğrul Apakan; and Special Repre- Conflict met on 4, 5 and 8 February to nego- sentative of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office tiate its conclusions on the Secretary-Gener- Kosovo Martin Sajdik briefed. The discussion was al’s report on children and armed conflict in On 7 February, Special Representative and marked by the longstanding divisions among Syria (S/2018/969). On 12 February there was head of UNMIK Zahir Tanin briefed the permanent members on this issue. Russia an Arria-formula meeting on the protection of Council on the Secretary-General’s latest accused Ukraine of not adhering to the Minsk children affected by armed conflict in contexts report (S/2019/102) and recent developments agreements and escalating tensions in eastern where humanitarian space is shrinking, with a in Kosovo (S/PV.8459). Leading up to the Ukraine. On the other hand, the US and the specific focus on the CAR, organised by Bel- meeting, the Council was unable to agree on EU members emphasised the Russian role in gium, the CAR, Côte d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guin- a programme of work for February due to dis- the conflict and its violations of the interna- ea and France, in partnership with the Special agreement among members on whether Koso- tional law. The members agreed on the impor- Representative of the Secretary-General on vo should be discussed during the month. The tance of upholding the Minsk agreements and Children and Armed Conflict, Virginia Gamba. US, together with the EU members, objected the need to implement all its provisions. In her introductory remarks, Gamba highlight- to holding the meeting in February in line ed the child protection provisions, which were with their common position that the Coun- Central African Republic included in the recent peace agreement signed cil should reduce the frequency of meetings On 13 February, Council members issued in the CAR and provided data on recent attacks on Kosovo. Russia and some other members a press statement welcoming the signing on humanitarian personnel and infrastructure strongly opposed this, however. A compro- of the Global Peace Agreement in the CAR which shrank humanitarian space. The brief- mise was reached on a note by the president (SC/13701). On 21 February, Departing Spe- ers were Ambassador Ambroisine Kpongo (the (S/2019/120) which stated that, in addition to cial Representative and head of MINUSCA CAR); Nathalie Ben Zakour Man, Senior Child the 7 February meeting, the Council will hold Parfait Onanga-Anyanga briefed the Council Protection Adviser in MINUSCA; and Hichem briefings on Kosovo in June and October 2019 (S/PV.8467) on the latest MINUSCA report Khadhraoui, Director of Operations, Geneva and that as of 2020 the briefings will be held (S/2019/147). Ambassador Smaïl Chergui, Call. Ambassador Marc Pecsteen de Buyts- twice a year (in April and October). the AU Commissioner for Peace and Security; werve (Belgium) moderated. Koen Vervaeke, the European External Action Women, Peace and Security Service Managing Director (via VTC); Ambas- Crime at Sea On 8 February, there was an open Arria- sador Gbolié Desiré Wulfran Ipo, Deputy Per- On 5 February, the Security Council held a formula meeting in the Trusteeship Council manent Representative of Côte d’Ivoire, which debate on transnational organised crime at Chamber on the preventive impact of crimi- chairs the 2127 CAR Sanctions Committee; sea (S/PV.8457). Equatorial Guinea circu- nal accountability for conflict-related sexual- and Ambassador Omar Hilale (Morocco), lated a concept note ahead of the meeting and gender-based violence. The meeting was chair of the Peacebuilding Commission’s CAR (S/2019/98). Equatorial Guinea’s Minister organised by Germany, in partnership with configuration, also addressed the Council. On

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Status Update since our February Forecast

22 February, the 2127 CAR Sanctions Com- the importance of the legislative elections in Israel-Palestine mittee discussed the Panel of Experts’ “prog- order to begin institutional reforms, which On 20 February, the Security Council held a ress update” with its coordinator. Bissau-Guinean political parties committed briefing, followed by consultations, on the Mid- to doing in a stability pact signed the day dle East (Israel/Palestine) (S/PV.8466). Special Iraq before the Council’s arrival. Members also Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Pro- On 13 February, the new Special Represen- used the visit to consider the Secretary-Gen- cess Nickolay Mladenov briefed the Council tative and head of UNAMA, Jeanine Hennis- eral’s proposed plan to reconfigure and then (via VTC). He reviewed developments on the Plasschaert, briefed the Council on the latest withdraw the mission by the end of Decem- ground and said that a heavy toll is being exact- Secretary-General’s report (S/2019/101) and ber 2020. On 26 February, the Council was ed on Palestinian society by unilateral measures, recent developments in Iraq (S/PV.8462). She briefed by the co-leads of the visiting mission. unceasing violence, and financial pressures. expressed concern over the slow pace of com- Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitar- pleting the process of formation of the new Counter-Terrorism ian Affairs Ursula Mueller also briefed on this government and called on Iraqis to focus on Council members issued a press statement issue for the first time in several months. She addressing the immediate needs of the country on 14 February condemning the terrorist urged progress toward a political solution and and refrain from factional politics. On 19 Feb- attack in Sistan-Baluchestan Province, Iran, for member states to increase support for the ruary, the Council adopted a presidential state- on 13 February, in which 27 people were 2019 Humanitarian Response Plan. ment (S/PRST/2019/1) welcoming the coop- killed and 13 others wounded (SC/13703). eration between Iraq and Kuwait on the issue On 21 February, Council members issued a Eritrea of missing Kuwaiti and third-country nation- press statement condemning the 14 Febru- On 21 February, Under-Secretary-General als and the return of missing Kuwaiti property, ary suicide bombing in Jammu and Kashmir, for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rose- including national archives (S/PV.8463). noting that over 40 Indian paramilitary forc- mary DiCarlo briefed Council members in es had died and dozens had been wounded consultations on Eritrea-Djibouti relations, DPRK (North Korea) in the attack, for which Jaish-e-Mohammed including on the 18 February letter from The 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee held claimed responsibility (SC/13712). the Secretary-General to the president of the two meetings, on 13 and 21 February, to dis- Council on the issue (S/2019/154). cuss the final report of the Panel of Experts. Guinea-Bissau On 25 February, the chair of the 1718 DPRK The Council visited Guinea-Bissau from 15 “Silencing the Guns” Open Debate Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Chris- to 16 February. On 28 February, the Council On 27 February, the Council held a high- toph Heusgen (Germany), briefed Council adopted a resolution renewing the mandate of level open debate on the AU “Silencing the members in consultations on the work of the UNIOGBIS for one year. The resolution sets Guns by 2020” initiative. It was chaired by committee during the past three months. out that the reconfiguration of UNIOGBIS Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation as a streamlined good offices mission (as pro- of Equatorial Guinea Simeon Oyono Esono Visiting Mission posed by the Secretary-General in a 5 Decem- Angue. It followed an Arria-formula meeting Council members undertook a visiting mis- ber 2018 special report [S/2018/1086]) held in October 2018 on this issue. Equato- sion to Côte d’Ivoire and Guinea-Bissau should begin after the current electoral cycle rial Guinea held the meeting to address sever- from 14 to 16 February co-led by Coun- and by 31 December. Earlier in February, the al questions on AU-UN cooperation for this cil president Equatorial Guinea and Côte Secretary-General submitted his report on initiative, such as how to preserve gains made d’Ivoire. In Côte d’Ivoire, Council members Guinea-Bissau and the activities of UNIOG- and how to strengthen tools to prevent, man- held meetings with Ivorian Foreign Minister BIS (S/2019/115). The Guinea-Bissau 2048 age and resolve conflicts. There was a wide Marcel Amon-Tanoh and with Vice President Sanctions Committee met on 7 February, range of participation by UN member states. Daniel Kablan Duncan to take stock of Côte receiving a briefing from Pierre Lapaque, d’Ivoire’s ongoing transition from peacekeep- Representative of the UNODC Regional Venezuela ing to peace consolidation since the depar- Office for West and Central Africa, on drug On 26 February, the Council held a briefing ture in 2017 of UNOCI. This was followed trafficking and transnational organised crime on Venezuela. by a roundtable discussion with the resident in Guinea-Bissau and the region. coordinators of the UN’s Ivorian and Libe- Cyprus rian country teams to consider the experi- Burundi On 27 February, Council members issued a ences and best practices on the transitions of On 19 February, the Secretary-General’s press statement welcoming the 26 February UN peacekeeping operations to non-mission Special Envoy, Michel Kafando, briefed the meeting between Cypriot leaders and progress peacebuilding settings in Côte d’Ivoire and Council on Burundi (S/PV.8465). Ambas- on confidence building measures (SC/13722). Liberia. In Guinea-Bissau, Council members sador Jürg Lauber (Switzerland), the chair encouraged political actors, including Presi- of the Burundi configuration of the PBC, Myanmar dent José Mário Vaz, to keep to the 10 March and Permanent Observer of the AU to the At press time, the Council was expecting a date for legislative elections, which were UN Fatima Kyari Mohammed also partici- briefing followed by consultations on 28 Feb- delayed twice last year, and indicated that pated in the meeting, which was followed by ruary on the situation in Myanmar from Spe- the presidential election should also be organ- consultations. cial Envoy Christine Schraner Burgener, who ised during 2019. Members further stressed visited the country at the end of January.

4 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2019 Mali

Expected Council Action launch of an accelerated DDR process and Chadian peacekeepers died after an attack on In March, the Council expects to examine the establishment of ten district-level interim the MINUSMA camp in Aguelhok, and two the progress achieved in the implementation administrations in the north, and empha- Sri Lankan peacekeepers were killed in an of the 2015 Agreement on Peace and Recon- sised the importance of maintaining positive attack on a convoy in Mopti. On 22 Febru- ciliation in Mali on the basis of a Secretary- momentum. She also highlighted outstand- ary, three Guinean peacekeepers were killed General’s report, in line with resolution 2423 ing challenges, including lack of consensus in an attack against the vehicle in which they of 28 June 2018. The Council is also expected regarding territorial reforms, the increased were travelling near Siby (region of Bamako). to carry out a visiting mission to Mali and political polarisation since the July 2018 elec- The humanitarian situation in Mali hold a ministerial meeting back in New York tion that renewed the mandate of President remains precarious, owing to intensified with Secretary-General António Guterres Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, and the security armed conflict, crime and severe flooding. and the participation of Malian Prime Min- situation in vast areas of the country. After Security incidents, both direct attacks against ister Soumeylou Boubèye Maïga. the meeting, Council members issued a press humanitarian actors and the presence of The mandate of the UN Multidimension- statement expressing “a significant sense of explosive devices along roads, have contin- al Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali impatience with parties over the persistent ued to constrain humanitarian access in the (MINUSMA) expires on 30 June. The sanc- delays in the full implementation of key pro- northern and central regions. tions regime expires on 31 August, followed visions of the Agreement.” by the expiry of the mandate of the Panel of In addition to the dynamics in the north, Human Rights-Related Developments Experts on 30 September. the security situation in the centre of Mali On 12 February, the independent expert on human rights in Mali, Alioune Tine, said in a statement remains critical. Inter-communal violence that the human rights situation in Mali “is a cause Key Recent Developments among ethnic groups—particularly Fulani, of grave concern as security and humanitarian March is a critical time for the Council’s Bambara and Dogon—persists. Terrorist conditions in central and northern areas continue consideration of the situation in Mali and groups often take advantage of these tensions to worsen”. Serious and recurrent violations and the mandate of MINUSMA. In resolution to increase recruitment and enhance their abuses of human rights, such as extrajudicial exe- cutions, abductions, torture, ill-treatment and ille- 2423, the Council expressed its intent, in own legitimacy in their communities. Fur- gal detention, are committed with impunity, includ- the absence of significant progress in the thermore, the limited presence of the Malian ing in areas which were not affected a few months implementation of the peace agreement, to state is manifested in the conduct of military ago, and Tine said there is “an urgent need for request the Secretary-General to provide operations but not through the provision of an effective military response, with well-equipped options for a potentially significant modifi- basic services. While MINUSMA is scaling and well-trained men, acting in full compliance with human rights standards”. During its 40th cation of MINUSMA’s mandate when the up its presence in the centre, the situation session, the Human Rights Council is scheduled current mandate expires. The areas in which there lacks an overall political framework, to hold an interactive dialogue on 19 March with the Council is expected to assess progress are: such as that outlined by the agreement for Tine and to consider his report (A/HRC/40/77). • the holding of presidential elections, which northern Mali. took place in July and August 2018; The visiting mission may include meetings Key Issues and Options • the decentralisation of state administration; with the EU, which is a significant actor in The Council has raised the tone in expressing • the operationalisation of the interim Mali. In addition to the deployment of the its frustration with the lack of implementation administrations in northern Mali; EU Training Mission and the EU Capacity of the 2015 agreement. Ahead of the visiting • the cantonment and disarmament, demo- Building Mission in Mali (EUCAP Sahel mission, Council members could discuss how bilisation and reintegration (DDR) pro- Mali) and its financing of humanitarian and they can support the political process bilater- cesses, as well as an inclusive and consen- development activities there, the EU chan- ally and multilaterally in order to convey a uni- sual security sector reform; nels international voluntary contributions to fied message in their meetings with the parties • the full operationalisation of mixed patrols reimburse MINUSMA for its support to the in Mali. To do so, the Secretariat, the mission by government forces and armed groups G5 Sahel Joint Force. Council members pre- leadership and Algeria, which chairs the main in Gao, Kidal and Timbuktu; viously visited Mali in February 2014, March follow-up mechanism to the agreement, could • the socio-economic development of north- 2016 and October 2017. The regional dimen- be invited to participate in an informal inter- ern Mali; and sion of the crisis is also expected to feature active dialogue. Despite its prominent politi- • the equal and meaningful political partici- in Council discussions, particularly given cal role, Algeria has participated only once in pation of women. the increased reach of terrorist organisations a Council meeting on Mali, in January 2017. Briefing the Council on 16 January, Assis- beyond the Sahel and into coastal West Africa. Council members could encourage its partici- tant Secretary-General for Africa Bintou Kei- MINUSMA continues to be targeted pation in briefings under rule 37 of the provi- ta highlighted recent progress, including the by terrorist organisations. In January, ten sional rules of procedure.

UN DOCUMENTS ON MALI Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2432 (30 August 2018) renewed the targeted sanctions regime on Mali and the mandate of the Panel of Experts. S/RES/2423 (28 June 2018) renewed MINUSMA’s mandate for one year. S/RES/2391 (8 December 2017) outlined the ways in which MINUSMA is expected to support the G5 Sahel Joint Force and described how the UN will be reimbursed for its assistance. Secretary-General’s Report S/2018/1174 (28 December 2018) was on the situation in Mali. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8445 (16 January 2019) was a briefing on Mali by Assistant Secretary-General for Africa Bintou Keita.Security Council Press Statements SC/13714 (23 February 2019) condemned the attack in which three Guinean peacekeepers were killed near Siby (region of Bamako). SC/13678 (25 January 2019) condemned the attack perpetrated against a MINUSMA convoy near Douentza (region of Mopti), in which two peacekeepers from Sri Lanka were killed and several others injured. SC/13672 (20 January 2019) condemned an attack on the MINUSMA camp in Aguelhok, in which ten peacekeepers from Chad were killed and several others injured. SC/13667 (16 January 2019) was on the progress of the Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation in Mali.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Mali

On 20 December 2018, the 2374 Mali in their visiting mission Council members but language was added requesting the March Sanctions Committee imposed a travel ban could also prioritise discussing the impact report—six months after the inauguration of on three individuals associated with armed of the conflict dynamics in the centre of the President Keïta—to examine progress on the groups for their destabilising activities in country on Mali as a whole, as well as the implementation of the agreement and hold- Mali. The listings were proposed by France, broader region. ing out the possibility of a reconfiguration of based on information included in a confi- the mission after the mandate’s expiry in June. dential annex to the August 2018 report of Council and Wider Dynamics While all Council members have expressed the Panel of Experts. As Council members During the negotiations of resolution 2423 in frustration at the pace of implementation, it is consider increasing political pressure on June 2018, the US unsuccessfully pushed for unclear which positions they will take on the the parties, they could assess the impact of a shorter renewal of MINUSMA’s mandate in prospect of a reconfiguration of the mission, the three December 2018 designations and order to pressure the parties to achieve results. particularly given the US focus on budgetary whether the use of sanctions is effective in The US has taken this approach with the UN issues when discussing peace operations. targeting those hindering the implementation Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara France is the penholder on Mali. and of the agreement while preserving the parties’ and the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei, Ambassador José Singer Weisinger (Domini- engagement in the process. which have been renewed for six months at a can Republic) chairs the 2374 Mali Sanctions The north of the country remains the focus time. All other Council members supported Committee. of the agreement and its implementation, but maintaining the regular 12-month renewal,

Counter-Terrorism

Expected Council Action for the travel and activities of foreign terror- 2018, France hosted a conference in Paris on In March, the Council will hold an open ist fighters (FTFs). Resolution 2396 of 21 the financing of terrorism, titled “No Money debate on the financing of terrorism, during December 2017 further elaborated on this for Terror”, with more than 70 countries and which a resolution may be adopted. with respect to FTFs returning to their home 15 international and regional organisations countries. Additionally, resolution 2347 of 24 participating. The final statement of the con- Background and Key Recent March 2017 highlighted the links between ference expressed the commitment to imple- Developments the illicit trade in cultural property and the ment existing Council resolutions effectively Resolution 1373 was adopted in 2001 in financing of terrorism. and enhance cooperation and coordination response to the 11 September terrorist Peru organised an Arria-formula meeting of technical and financial assistance for states attacks in the US. This was the first compre- on “Enhancing synergies between the United lacking capacity in this field. hensive resolution imposing obligations on Nations and regional and subregional organ- New forms of financing terrorist activi- all states to respond to the global threat of isations to address the nexus between terror- ties were also addressed, and these were front terrorism. It requires states to criminalise ter- ism and transnational organised crime” on 9 and centre in an Arria-formula meeting co- rorist acts, penalise acts of support for or in April 2018. On 8 May, the Council adopted hosted by France, Indonesia and Peru, with preparation of terrorist offences, criminalise a presidential statement calling on states to the assistance of Australia and Tunisia, on the financing of terrorism, freeze the funds of “prevent terrorists from benefiting from the “Preventing and Countering the Financing of persons who commit or attempt to commit financial proceeds of transnational organised Terrorism” on 31 January. The panellists were terrorist acts, and strengthens international crime” and recalling states’ “obligations to Tom Keatinge, the director of the Centre for cooperation in criminal matters related to prevent and suppress the financing of terror- Financial Crime and Security Studies at the terrorism. Resolution 1373 also established ism for any purpose”. Royal United Services Institute for Defence the Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC) to While there has been success in limiting and Security Studies (RUSI); Michèle Conin- monitor its implementation. the funds available to groups such as the sx, Assistant Secretary-General and Executive Since 2001, the Council has adopted fur- Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) Director of the Counter-Terrorism Executive ther resolutions relating to financing and (Da’esh) and Al-Qaida, these and other Directorate (CTED); Guillaume Michelin, assisting terrorist acts. In resolution 2178 of groups are finding new ways to finance their Substitut du Procureur, Tribunal de Grande 24 September 2014, the Council decided that activities and bypass existing mechanisms. Instance de Paris (via video teleconference); states must prevent and eliminate funding Against this backdrop, on 25 and 26 April John Carlson of the Financial Action Task

UN DOCUMENTS ON COUNTER-TERRORISM Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2396 (21 December 2017) addressed the threat of foreign terrorist fighters. S/RES/2395 (21 December 2017) renewed the mandate of CTED until 31 December 2021. S/RES/2347 (24 March 2017) was on protection of cultural heritage in armed conflicts. S/RES/2178 (24 September 2014) expanded the counter-terrorism framework by imposing obligations on member states to respond to the threat of foreign terrorist fighters.S/RES/1373 (28 September 2001) created obligations on states to suppress the financing of terrorism.Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2018/9 (8 May 2018) expressed concern about the close connection between international terrorism and transnational organised crime. Secretary-General’s Report S/2019/103 (1 February 2019) was the eighth report of the Secretary-General on the threat posed by ISIL (Da’esh) to international peace and security. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8460 (11 February 2019) was a briefing on the eighth report of the Secretary-General on the threat posed by ISIL (Da’esh).

6 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2019 Counter-Terrorism

Force (FATF), an international organisation through accessible reserves, in cash or invest- An outcome may urge further resource- and that develops standards for suppressing the ments in businesses, ranging between $50 technology-sharing between states, on top of financing of terrorism and effectively imple- million and $300 million.” Coninsx reviewed information-sharing. menting existing measures to combat ter- CTED’s findings on the increased use of rorism (via video teleconference); and Jody mobile payment services by terrorist groups Council Dynamics Myers, vice president of global compliance and concerns about the possible exploitation In general, counter-terrorism enjoys the sup- risk assessment at Western Union. of blockchain technology and the misuse of port of all Council members; the importance The discussion revealed significant gaps crypto-currencies for malicious, criminal or of curbing the financing of terrorism, in par- in implementation of Council resolutions on terrorist purposes. ticular, is a consensus issue. All agree on the the financing of terrorism by member states. importance of implementing obligations to The various ways in which terrorists fund Key Issues and Options supress the financing of terrorism, but dur- their activities were also raised, including the Lack of implementation of existing resolu- ing negotiations on previous related resolu- abuse of legitimate businesses and not-for- tions, first and foremost resolution 1373, is an tions, some Council members emphasised profit organisations and the misappropria- ongoing issue. The Council may urge states lack of capacity and resources as a reason for tion of charitable funds, extortion of local to meet their current counter-terrorism obli- implementation gaps. They wanted to secure populations, organised crime, and new forms gations, particularly criminalising terrorism an obligation from developed countries for of financial activity such as crowdfunding, acts and the funding of those acts, as well as assistance in developing technologies such as mobile payment services and crypto-currency. bringing perpetrators and funders of terror- biometric data collection, necessary for full The importance of engaging with the private ism to justice, while respecting international implementation. Other countries were only sector was discussed, as was the need to devel- humanitarian law and human rights law. willing to go as far as calling on states to pro- op and implement financial intelligence capa- The Council may also choose to address vide mutual assistance. bilities to trace money used for terrorism and the new forms and methods of funding used Divisions may also emerge if a proposed also anticipate and prevent terrorist attacks. by terrorist groups and clarify the application resolution seeks to expand existing obligations On 11 February, Under-Secretary-Gen- of resolution 1373 to these new technologies. or include new obligations on member states. eral and head of the UN Office of Counter- In this regard, it may touch upon the need Some Council members may be inclined to Terrorism Vladimir Voronkov and Coninsx for greater interaction with private actors to focus on the implementation of existing Coun- briefed the Council on the eighth report of be able to source and track funds to prevent cil resolutions. In addition, different views on the Secretary-General on the threat posed terrorism while respecting privacy laws. the importance of human rights while coun- by ISIL. Regarding ISIL’s financial strength, The lack of capacity of some states to tering terrorism may lead to disagreement on Voronkov said the report “notes that despite implement Council resolutions effectively the correct balance between oversight over pri- some loss of revenue because of territorial because of insufficient resources and technol- vate actors, such as non-profit organisations, setbacks, ISIL could sustain its operations ogy has been a controversial issue in the past. and protecting the rights of those actors.

Haiti

Expected Council Action started on 7 February after celebrations meant unrest. On 12 February, 78 detainees escaped In March, the Council is expected to receive a to mark 33 years since the end of the Duva- from a prison on Tiburon Peninsula in south- briefing on the situation in Haiti from Special lier regime. Among the underlying issues ern Haiti during a protest in front of a police Representative and head of the UN Mission are claims of mismanagement, inflation, and station and the adjoining prison. for Justice Support in Haiti (MINUJUSTH) embezzlement of money from a discounted oil President Moïse has dismissed calls to Helen Meagher La Lime. It will also consider program from Venezuela. Thousands have tak- resign, insisting he was elected in free, fair, the most recent report on the implementation en to the streets to demand the resignation of and legitimate elections, and offering instead of resolution 2410 and political and security President Jovenel Moïse, with ensuing violence, to talk with opposition stakeholders to find a developments in the context of the 15 April looting, and property destruction. Living con- solution. Parliamentary and legislative elec- expiry of MINUJUSTH’s mandate. ditions have deteriorated as a result of dis- tions are scheduled to be held in 2019. In rupted transportation and trade. In addition an attempt to calm protesters, Prime Min- Key Recent Developments to Port-au-Prince, demonstrations have been ister Jean-Henry Céant announced on 16 The security situation in Haiti remains volatile. reported throughout the country, including in February that there would be a 30 percent After violent protests in October, November Cap-Haïtien and Les Cayes. At press time, at reduction in government expenses, as well as and December 2018, a fresh wave of protests least seven people had died in the February decreased privileges for government officials,

UN DOCUMENTS ON HAITI Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2410 (10 April 2018) extended MINUJUSTH’s mandate until 15 April 2019. S/RES/2350 (13 April 2017) renewed MINUSTAH’s mandate and requested the Secretary-General to create benchmarks for a two-year exit strategy to a non-peacekeeping UN presence and led to the establishment of MINUJUSTH..

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 7 Haiti such as allowances for telephones and for- La Lime highlighted some remaining Council Dynamics eign travel. plans, such as replicating pilot programmes Council members overall appear united in On 26 February, the Secretary-General for reducing pre-trial detention countrywide, viewing developments in Haiti as mostly posi- transmitted his report on MINUJUSTH. The increasing the capacity of investigative mech- tive. It seems likely that in the near future mission’s core mandate is to assist the gov- anisms, tackling gang violence, and securing MINUJUSTH will be replaced by a special ernment in strengthening rule-of-law institu- parliamentary approval of essential legislation political mission, and Council members will tions, reinforcing national police capacities, such as a new criminal and procedural code. want to hear more details and recommenda- and engaging in human rights monitor- While not every benchmark will be achieved tions, which are expected to be included in ing, reporting and analysis. As requested in by the target date of 15 October, with care- the Secretary-General’s report. The Council resolution 2350, the Secretary-General cre- ful and responsible planning, all options for appears anxious to have a smooth transition ated 11 benchmarks in 2018 towards a non- reconfiguring the UN presence to a non- that considers the needs and desires of the peacekeeping UN presence, based on recom- peacekeeping role are possible, she said. host country while protecting the investment mendations by MINUJUSTH and Haitian On 21 February, at the request of France, of the international community. stakeholders. Any planning for the discussed Germany, and the US, La Lime briefed However, some differences remain. Coun- withdrawal of the formed police units is Council members on the February protests cil members have been particularly divided linked to progress on these benchmarks. under “any other business” in consultations. on the use of Chapter VII in MINUJUSTH’s The Council’s most recent formal meeting After the meeting, the Council president read mandate. While the Council voted unani- on Haiti was in December 2018. La Lime, out elements for the press that urged all Hai- mously during the last mandate renewal, who took her post in August, briefed for tian citizens to act peacefully, called on actors explanations after the vote revealed objec- the first time. She praised the efforts of the to engage in good faith, and reaffirmed the tions by Russia and China to using Chapter Haitian National Police (HNP) in handling commitment of Council members to working VII in a situation which they deem as posing the 2018 protests. She said MINUJUSTH with the people and the government of Haiti no threat to international peace and security. continues to strive to implement its mandate, towards a more secure and prosperous future. Council practice is that draft resolutions despite challenges. It assists rule of law insti- on Haiti are negotiated and agreed among tutions, increasing the capacity of HNP and Key Issues and Options the Group of Friends of Haiti, which com- promoting human rights in Haiti. She report- The focus remains on tracking progress prises Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, ed on the creation of a joint commission with towards achieving the benchmarks necessary Chile, Colombia, France, Guatemala, Peru, Haitian stakeholders to remove decision- for the transition to a non-peacekeeping UN the US and Uruguay, before being circulated making bottlenecks and create a forum for presence in Haiti. The Council will also con- to all 15 Council members by the US as the discussions. She said Haiti is dedicated to tinue to monitor the effects of the riots and penholder. During the last mandate renewal improving human rights, including expand- any possible discussions between the govern- in April 2018, however, this practice was not ing the ability for human rights organisations ment and members of the opposition. followed. The US submitted the draft to the to operate. Group of Friends for comments only.

Syria

Expected Council Action Deir ez-Zor region held by the Islamic State 12 ceasefire observation stations established In March, the Council will receive the month- in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), and there are as part of a deal with Russia in September ly briefings on the humanitarian situation, concerns about the well-being of civilians who 2018 to create a demilitarised zone. Diver- the political process and the use of chemical have fled the area, including family members gences over the fate of Idlib became clear weapons in Syria. of foreign terrorist fighters. at a 14 February meeting of the presidents The situation in Idlib remains critical. In of Iran, Russia and Turkey, the guarantors Key Recent Developments January, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (a Council- of the Astana process. Their joint statement March marks the eighth anniversary of the designated terrorist group) took over control stopped short of justifying a military offen- beginning of the Syrian conflict. The humani- of most of Idlib from the National Liberation sive and merely agreed to effectively coun- tarian situation in Syria remains dire and has Front, the Turkish-backed coalition of mod- ter the attempts by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham to been exacerbated by harsh winter conditions, erate armed groups. Following an upsurge in increase its control over the area as well as to including torrential rains. Thousands remain attacks by government forces and in civilian take concrete steps to reduce violations in the trapped by ongoing hostilities in areas of the casualties in Idlib, Turkey has reinforced the Idlib de-escalation area.

UN DOCUMENTS ON SYRIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2449 (13 December 2018) renewed the authorisation for cross-border and cross-line aid delivery. S/RES/2401 (24 February 2018) demanded that all parties cease hostilities in Syria. S/RES/2254 (18 December 2015) was on a political solution to the Syrian crisis. S/RES/2118 (27 September 2013) was on chemical weapons. Secretary-General’s Report S/2019/157 (19 February 2019) was the bi-monthly report on the humanitarian situation in Syria. Security Council Letter S/2019/91 (28 January 2019) was an OPCW report on progress in the elimination of the Syrian chemical weapons programme. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8471 (26 February 2019) was a briefing by the OCHA Director of Operations and Advocacy Reena Ghelani on the humanitarian situation.

8 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2019 Syria

The situation in the north-east of Syria need to step up work on confidence-building Syrian government’s emphasis on regaining remains fragile after the December 2018 measures, including the situation of detainees, territory and consolidating control. As Peder- announcement by the US regarding the abductees and missing persons. Even though sen starts his tenure, Council members could withdrawal of its troops. The US actively sup- the Astana guarantors have established a work- hold an informal and frank discussion to con- ports the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), ing group to address these issues, and some sider how, individually and collectively, they which includes the Kurdish YPG militia, and dozens of prisoners have been swapped in can best support the prospects of a political the US decision has introduced fresh uncer- November 2018 and in February, much work process based on resolution 2254. tainty into efforts to prevent an escalation remains to be done. At press time, Pedersen The issue of detainees, abductees and of violence between Turkey and the YPG, as was expected to brief the Council for the first missing persons has not attracted much well as counter-terrorism operations against time on 28 February, followed by consultations. attention in the Council and is mostly consid- ISIL and the fate of the territory currently The High Representative for Disarmament ered under the rubric of confidence-building controlled by the SDF in the north-east. Affairs, Izumi Nakamitsu, briefed the Coun- measures being discussed by the Astana guar- While details of the withdrawal, including its cil on 6 February. The Organization for the antors. With little progress on this front and timeline and conditions, remain unclear, the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) the Syrian government’s release of thousands US has indicated that about 200 troops will continues to have concerns regarding the lim- of prisoner death notices, the Council could remain in the north-east for some time. ited cooperation of the Syrian government in hold a meeting and call on the guarantors After many delays, in early February the addressing the gaps, inconsistencies and dis- to use their influence on the government to UN and the Syrian Arab Red Crescent were crepancies identified in Syria’s initial declara- engage in good faith on this matter. able to reach the Rukban makeshift camp near tion of its chemical weapons stockpile. A new concern is that the recent takeover the border with Jordan. The interagency con- of most of Idlib by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham voy, which included 118 trucks with life-sav- Human Rights-Related Developments could be used to justify a military offensive ing assistance, was one of the largest and most On 19 February, High Commissioner for Human by the Syrian government and its allies. Rights Michelle Bachelet said in a statement complex humanitarian missions since the The Council could request a briefing that the intensified ground-based bombardment beginning of the conflict. UNHCR considered of Idlib and surrounding areas by government from the Secretariat to focus on the potential conditions in the camp to be “desperate” and forces and their allies in recent weeks has led to for instability in north-eastern Syria, call on “catastrophic”. Once in Rukban, humanitarian numerous civilian casualties and left some one the actors involved to exercise restraint, and partners stayed for nine days to make sure that million people, including hundreds of thousands support good offices efforts to address long- of displaced people, in an extremely vulnerable assistance was not diverted and to conduct a standing grievances. situation. The bombardment of the “demilita- survey of camp residents’ intentions. Despite rized buffer zone” that includes Idlib and areas of Following up on the 6 February con- the interest of many interviewees in returning northern Hama and western Aleppo governorates sultations, Council members could invite home, they have been unable to do so until started to escalate in December 2018 and has representatives of the OPCW and the Syr- now. Some of the families have been at Ruk- further intensified, the statement said. Bachelet ian government to discuss their cooperation, called on “all parties involved, as well as external ban for more than four years. including on outstanding issues. governments with influence, to ensure that the Since taking office as Special Envoy for protection of civilians is held paramount in the Syria on 7 January, Geir O. Pedersen has trav- planning and execution of all military operations Council and Wider Dynamics elled extensively, including to Damascus to in accordance with international law”. During its The Council continues to be divided over the conduct consultations with the government 40th session, the Human Rights Council is sched- Syrian conflict, but the arrival of a new envoy and to Riyadh to hold discussions with the uled to hold an interactive dialogue on 12 March provides an opportunity to reinvigorate the with the Commission of Inquiry on Syria and to opposition’s Syrian Negotiation Commis- consider its report (A/HRC/40/70). political process. Council members are also sion. In a press encounter on 15 February, divided over whether there can be interna- he emphasised that his mandate remains the Key Issues and Options tional support for the reconstruction of Syria, terms spelled out in resolution 2254, which Given the crucial role of Russia, Turkey and an issue that is expected to feature in the EU- provides for a Syrian-led, UN-facilitated pro- Iran on both the political and humanitarian hosted Brussels Conference on Supporting cess to establish credible, inclusive and non- fronts, Council members could seek an infor- the Future of Syria and the Region, which sectarian governance, set a process for drafting mal interactive dialogue with their represen- will take place in late March. In the past, the a new constitution, and conduct free and fair tatives to have a more action-oriented discus- P3 and EU countries have argued that there elections. While he expressed his hope to con- sion regarding current and future efforts to can be no international support for funding vene as soon as possible a meeting of the con- avert a full-fledged military offensive in Idlib. development and long-term reconstruction stitutional committee in Geneva, which can be Council members continue to be pro- in Syria until irreversible progress has been a “potential door-opener for the political pro- foundly divided over Syria, and some ques- made in the political process. cess”, he highlighted that he also wants to work tion whether any effort on the political pro- Belgium, Germany and Kuwait are co- on other issues in parallel. He said there was a cess is likely to yield results, considering the penholders on humanitarian issues in Syria.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 9 OSCE Briefing

Expected Council Action Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) currently passed a law that bars Russian citizens from In March, Slovakian Foreign Minister Miro- maintains around 800 international monitors, taking part in the ODIHR election observer slav Lajčák, the current Chairperson-in- most of whom are based in eastern Ukraine. mission in Ukraine. During his 17 February Office for the Organization for Security and The SMM gathers information about ceasefire meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pav- Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), is expected violations and the withdrawal of heavy weap- lo Klimkin, Lajčák regretted that Ukraine had to provide a briefing to the Security Council ons. Furthermore, the OSCE participates in undertaken such measures, which he said were on the activities of the organisation. the work of Trilateral Contact Group (TCG), not in line with OSCE commitments and not which serves as a forum for addressing imple- in the best interest of the organisation. Background mentation aspects of the Minsk agreements. While the conflict in Ukraine occupies most The chairmanship of the OSCE rotates Given the OSCE’s prominent presence of the OSCE’s attention, the organisation is also yearly, and on 1 January, Slovakia succeeded and access to information on the ground, the involved in conflict resolution and mediation in Italy in this function. “Briefing by the Chair- Council has occasionally sought briefings protracted conflicts in areas such as Transdnies- man-in-Office of the Organization for Secu- by OSCE representatives on the situation in tria, Nagorno-Karabakh and Georgia. rity and Cooperation in Europe” has been a eastern Ukraine. Most recently, Chief Moni- During its chairmanship, Slovakia will also Council agenda item since 2001; since 2004, tor Ertuğrul Apakan of the SMM and Special focus on other issues, including promoting such briefings have been held annually in Representative of the OSCE Chairperson-in- dialogue between regional and international open chamber. Office Martin Sajdik briefed on 12 February. partners; transnational threats such as violent Slovakia has indicated that its chairmanship During his 10 January address to the OSCE extremism and terrorism; promoting sustain- will be ambitious in promoting dialogue and Permanent Council in Vienna, Lajčák stressed able development; effective use of youth per- trust, but also realistic in regard to challeng- that the situation in Ukraine will be among spectives in the work of the OSCE; cybersecu- es and complexities. It outlined the following the main priorities during Slovakia’s chair- rity; and addressing negative consequences of priorities: preventing, mediating and mitigat- manship of the OSCE. In his first official visit rapid technological changes. ing conflict and focusing on the people affect- upon assuming the role of Chairman-in-Office, In December 2018, the EU and the OSCE ed; providing for a safer future; and effective Lajčák travelled to Ukraine and visited the areas held the first high-level meeting of the two organ- multilateralism. in eastern parts of the country most affected by isations, with the aim of improving cooperation The situation in Ukraine has featured the conflict. During the visit, he called on the on matters of common interest, such as conflict prominently in the work of each chairman- parties involved in the conflict to increase their prevention and resolution, and peacebuilding. ship since the start of hostilities in 2014. The efforts in finding a political solution. Much of the discussion centred around poten- OSCE has emerged as a leading organisation The OSCE Office for Democratic Institu- tial cooperation in the Western Balkans, East- responsible for monitoring the implementation tions and Human Rights (ODIHR) will provide ern Europe and Central Asia—including some of the 2015 Minsk agreements concerning the international monitoring of the upcoming pres- issues on the Council’s agenda. Both organisa- conflict in eastern Ukraine, which the Coun- idential elections in Ukraine, scheduled for 31 tions agreed to formalise their relationship by cil endorsed in resolution 2202. The OSCE March. In February, the Ukrainian parliament holding annual high-level meetings.

South Sudan

Expected Council Action Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan administrative autonomy for the different In March, the Council will renew the man- (R-ARCSS) on 12 September 2018, Special regions. On 15 February, UNHCR said that date of the UN Mission in South Sudan Representative and head of UNMISS David thousands of people had fled into the Demo- (UNMISS) before its 15 March expiration. Shearer said during a press conference in cratic Republic of the Congo to escape vio- Prior to this, the Council expects a briefing, New York on 5 February. However, ethnic lence in Central Equatoria following clashes followed by consultations, on the Secretary- violence continues, and clashes are ongo- between the SSPDF and NAS. General’s 90-day report. ing in Central and Western Equatoria states The human rights, humanitarian, food between the government’s South Sudan Peo- security and economic conditions in the Key Recent Developments ple’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) and fighters country remain dire, with an enormous The level of political violence in South Sudan of Thomas Cirillo’s National Salvation Front impact on civilians. There were over two has “dropped dramatically” since the sign- (NAS). Cirillo rejected the R-ARCSS on the million South Sudanese refugees and nearly ing of the Revitalized Agreement on the basis of wanting a more federalist system with two million internally displaced persons with

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE OSCE Security Council Resolution S/RES/2202 (17 February 2015) endorsed the 12 February 2015 “Package of measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements”. Security Council Meetings S/PV.8461 (12 February 2019) was a briefing on the situation in Ukraine. S/PV.8200 (8 March 2018) was a briefing by the 2018 OSCE Chairperson-in-Office (Italy) to the Council. S/PV.4964 (7 May 2004) was the first briefing by the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office (Bulgaria) to the Council. UN DOCUMENTS ON SOUTH SUDAN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2406 (15 March 2018) extended the mandate of UNMISS for one year. Secretary-General’s Report S/2018/1103 (10 December 2018) was the 90-day report on South Sudan. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8431 (18 December 2018) was a briefing on South Sudan.

10 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2019 South Sudan

193,219 civilians in six UNMISS protec- Jean-Pierre Lacroix; Special Representative these 175 cases, 111 victims were women and tion of civilians (POC) sites, as at 17 Janu- on Sexual Violence in Conflict Pramila Pat- 64 were girls (some of whom were as young as ary. Since the signing of the R-ARCSS, some ten; and Ambassador Joanna Wronecka of eight). According to the report, there are reason- able grounds to believe that these attacks were refugees have returned to South Sudan, and Poland, the chair of the 2206 South Sudan carried out primarily by armed elements of the some people have started to leave UNMISS Sanctions Committee. Lacroix emphasised pro-Taban Deng faction of the Sudan People’s POC sites or have requested assistance to that “the peace process is not yet assessed as Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO [TD]) move back to their homes, Shearer said at being fully sustainable and irreversible and and the government’s SSPDF. The report urged the 5 February press conference. will need positive engagement and compro- the committee that was established by President Salva Kiir on 19 December 2018 to carry out a On the implementation of the R-ARC- mise from the parties and continued rein- prompt, effective and impartial investigation to SS, the most recent progress report of the forcement”. Patten told the Council that sex- identify the perpetrators of these attacks and Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evalu- ual violence “escalated dramatically in 2018”, hold them accountable. The response of UNMISS ation Commission available at press time, despite the signing of the R-ARCSS. She to these incidents included increasing patrols in which covers October through Decem- said that her office, together with OHCHR, the area and facilitating the deployment and work of a mobile court in Bentiu to hear cases involv- ber 2018, noted that except for the Inde- had submitted a confidential letter to the ing serious crimes, including sexual violence, the pendent Boundaries Commission and the chair of the South Sudan Sanctions Com- report said. The Informal Expert Group on Wom- Disarmament Demobilization and Rein- mittee with the names of three alleged per- en, Peace and Security met on 28 February to tegration (DDR) Commission, all institu- petrators. Patten outlined four recommenda- discuss South Sudan. tions and mechanisms required under the tions: first, that the government investigate R-ARCSS have been established, but “much all incidents of sexual violence and share the Key Issues and Options work remains to be done”, and funding and results with the UN; second, that the Coun- An immediate issue for the Council to consid- technical support are identified as major cil consistently apply sanctions for crimes of er is what changes are necessary to the man- challenges. The report also notes particu- sexual violence, based on the stand-alone date of UNMISS. The most likely option is lar concern over the slow pace of the can- designation criteria on sexual violence set out for the Council to renew the mandate for one tonment, DDR and unification of armed in resolution 2428; third, that comprehen- year, maintaining core elements such as the forces, “which are critical before the Tran- sive services be provided to survivors; and protection of civilians, monitoring and verifi- sitional Period commences” in May under fourth, that conflict-related sexual violence cation of human rights violations, and facili- the terms of the R-ARCSS. While opposi- be addressed as a central aspect of R-ARCSS tation of humanitarian access. tion members are present in Juba and par- and any peacebuilding arrangements. In doing so, the Council might consider ticipating in the various mechanisms under including language on some of the following: the R-ARCSS, Shearer expressed concern Human Rights-Related Developments • increasing the flexibility of the mission’s at the press conference that the momentum On 12 March, during its 40th session, the Human political strategy and responsibilities to Rights Council is scheduled to hold an interactive in moving the process forward might slow. support the peace process and regional dialogue with the Commission on Human Rights Opposition leader Riek Machar, currently in South Sudan and to consider its report (A/ efforts, which could include providing based in Khartoum, has said he plans to HRC/40/69). The report concludes that despite advice and technical support towards return to South Sudan in May. the signing of the R-ARCSS, violations including implementation of the R-ARCSS; On 20 December 2018, the AU Peace and rape and sexual violence continue to occur and • increasing the effectiveness of protection may amount to international crimes, including war Security Council adopted a communiqué efforts beyond POC sites and the role crimes. The Commission is expected to provide expressing support for the Intergovernmen- the High Commissioner for Human Rights with a of UNMISS in facilitating the safe and tal Authority on Development’s (IGAD’s) confidential list of names of alleged perpetrators. voluntary return of internally displaced decision to request the Security Council to persons; review the composition and mandate of the Women, Peace and Security-Related • reviewing the RPF’s mandate and troop Regional Protection Force (RPF), which is Developments levels to adapt to the current political and On 7 December 2018, the Security Council issued part of UNMISS. According to resolution a press statement condemning “the heinous security environment, including IGAD’s 2406, the current UNMISS 17,000-troop incidents of sexual and gender-based violence proposal to contribute troops; and ceiling includes the RPF at levels to be set against women near Bentiu” in the northern Unity • emphasising its willingness to consider by the Secretary-General but not exceeding region of South Sudan. The statement said that imposing targeted sanctions against indi- 4,000 troops. IGAD has proposed that its according to reports, armed men in military and viduals who meet the designation criteria civilian clothing attacked more than 150 women members, namely Djibouti, Kenya, Soma- and girls in government-controlled areas. The of “planning, directing, or committing lia, Sudan and Uganda, contribute troops to statement reiterated the Council’s willingness to acts involving sexual and gender-based fill what it has identified as the RPF’s defi- impose targeted sanctions against the respon- violence in South Sudan” as set out in cit of 1,695 troops as follows: 499 each from sible individuals or entities. On 15 February, resolution 2428. Kenya, Uganda and Sudan and 99 each from UNMISS and OHCHR published a joint report containing the findings of an investigation into Somalia and Djibouti. (The RPF currently these incidents by the UNMISS Human Rights Council Dynamics includes troops from Ethiopia and Rwanda.) Division, which determined that at least 134 cases Given the fragile and evolving situation in The Council was last briefed on South of rape or gang rape and 41 cases of other forms the country, Council members believe that Sudan on 18 December 2018 by Under-Sec- of sexual and physical violence occurred between the protection of civilians, the facilitation retary-General for Peacekeeping Operations September and December 2018 near Bentiu. Of of humanitarian access, and human rights

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 11 South Sudan monitoring should remain core elements members expressed concern over the humani- certain conditions should be met, such as the of the UNMISS mandate. As many mem- tarian situation and high levels of displacement, need for any forces deployed to be under a uni- bers share concerns over the need to sustain and several condemned continuing incidents of fied UN chain of command and comply with momentum in implementing the R-ARCSS sexual violence, including Côte d’Ivoire, Equa- UN peacekeeping standards. and the need for durable peace, it is likely that torial Guinea, France, Kuwait, Peru, Poland, The US is the penholder on South Sudan. they will be in favour of language explicitly the UK and the US. Regarding proposals for Poland chairs the 2206 South Sudan Sanc- authorising UNMISS to provide advice and IGAD member states to participate in the RPF, tions Committee. technical support in this regard. Russia in particular welcomed the initiative At the 18 December 2018 briefing, many while others such as France and the UK said

Afghanistan

Expected Council Action time, no appointments had been made. the government, emphasising that a political In March, the Council is expected to hold Over the past several months, represen- solution must be the result of an inclusive a briefing, followed by consultations, on tatives of the US and the Taliban have held Afghan-led process. Afghanistan and to extend the mandate of several rounds of talks on a possible with- Acting US Secretary of Defense Patrick the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan drawal of US troops from Afghanistan. The Shanahan made an unannounced visit to (UNAMA). Tadamichi Yamamoto, the Spe- US special representative for Afghanistan rec- Afghanistan on 11 February, during which cial Representative for Afghanistan and head onciliation, Zalmay Khalilzad, announced on he met with the Afghan leadership, including of UNAMA, is expected to brief. 28 January that a framework agreement with President Ashraf Ghani. Shanahan assured The mandate of UNAMA expires on 17 the Taliban had been reached. The announce- the government that the US maintains a March. ment came following six days of talks in Qatar strong interest in the security of Afghanistan between the US and Taliban delegations. The and the wider region. Addressing the question Key Recent Developments framework agreement envisions a phased of a possible troop withdrawal, he said that The October 2018 parliamentary elections withdrawal of US and international troops the Pentagon has not been instructed to draw were marked by widespread disruptions and in exchange for the Taliban’s assurance that down the US military presence in the country. irregularities, and exposed a range of vulner- it would not host terrorist organisations on On 14 February, Pakistan announced abilities within the Afghan electoral system. Afghan territory. The Taliban is estimated that it would host the next round of talks After consulting stakeholders, the Indepen- to control around 18 percent of the Afghan between the Taliban and US negotiating dent Election Commission (IEC) postponed territory while also contesting another 26 teams. The talks did not take place, however; the presidential elections from April to July to percent with the government. The talks left the US has indicated that it did not receive address outstanding problems. In a statement, uncertainty on several other issues, however, any formal invitation from Pakistan while UNAMA urged the IEC to take corrective chief among them the question of the Tali- the Taliban claimed its delegation could not measures and implement necessary reforms, ban’s participation in future Afghan govern- travel because of UN Security Council travel noting that mismanagement of the presiden- ments. The Taliban still refuses to engage in restrictions. tial elections would be unacceptable. direct talks with the government, whose legit- On 12 February, the Afghan government imacy it does not recognise. Human Rights-Related Developments fired all twelve commissioners of the IEC While there has been no agreement on On 21 March, during its 40th session, the Human Rights Council expects to consider the report and the Electoral Complaints Commission specific timelines, Khalilzad seemed to have of the High Commissioner for Human Rights on (EEC), which were blamed for widespread indicated that he is hopeful that a deal could the situation of human rights in Afghanistan and irregularities and disorganisation during the be reached before Afghanistan’s July presi- technical assistance achievements in the field of parliamentary elections. IEC is tasked with dential elections. human rights (A/HRC/40/45). supervising all aspects of the elections while In a separate political process in Moscow, EEC reviews complaints and reports irreg- the Taliban delegation met on 5 February Women, Peace and Security-Related ularities during the elections. Among other with prominent Afghan political opposition Developments requirements, members of both commissions, actors, led by former president Hamid Kar- The Secretary-General’s December 2018 report on Afghanistan expressed concern about the who are appointed by the president, cannot zai. The Afghan government criticised the prevalence of violence against women and girls, be members of any political party. At press Taliban for not engaging in direct talks with which causes “profound human suffering, inflicts

UN DOCUMENTS ON AFGHANISTAN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2405 (8 March 2018) renewed the mandate of UNAMA until 17 March 2019. Security Council Presidential Statements S/PRST/2018/15 (23 July 2018) was on the electoral process following the conclusion of voter registration on 18 July for parliamentary and district council elections in 2018 and for the 2019 presidential elections. S/PRST/2018/2 (19 January 2018) emphasised the importance of advancing regional, interregional and international cooperation to achieve sta- bility and sustainable development in Afghanistan and the Central Asian region. Secretary-General’s Report S/2018/1092 (7 December 2018) was the report on Afghanistan. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8426 (17 December 2018) was the latest quarterly debate on Afghanistan. Security Council Press Statements SC/13655 (3 January 2019) condemned the terrorist targeting of Afghan security forces in northern Sar-e-Pul Province and Balkh Province on 31 December 2018, which left 27 dead and 20 injured.

12 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2019 Afghanistan

grave harm on families and inhibits the full par- and urging the new IEC to implement the recognise the importance of holding fair, trans- ticipation of women in public life.” The report necessary reforms. Regarding the peace pro- parent and inclusive presidential elections as welcomed the establishment by the government cess, the Council could request that Khalil- a means of promoting political stability in of a technical committee to review the Elimina- tion of Violence against Women Law of 2009 and zad brief members in an informal interactive Afghanistan. At the most recent UNAMA expressed hope that this would result in stron- dialogue on the framework agreement. This debate on 17 December, the US said that ger legal protection from violence for all Afghan would be an opportunity for members to Khalilzad’s appointment in September 2018 women and girls. learn more about the agreement and solicit sent “a clear message” that the US believes that insights from Khalilzad, an Afghanistan-born peace is possible in Afghanistan. During the Issues and Options former US ambassador to the UN (2007 to debate, a number of other members—Equato- Key issues for the Council include how it 2009), on how the Council can best support rial Guinea, Kuwait and the UK—expressed can help the mission to support the organ- negotiating efforts in the future. support for Khalilzad’s efforts. Equatorial isation of the presidential elections and how Guinea, France and Russia continue to express the mission can play a constructive role with Council Dynamics concerns about the connection of drug produc- regard to the peace talks with the Taliban. The Long-standing concerns remain in the Coun- tion and trafficking in Afghanistan to terrorism. Council could furthermore consider adopt- cil about the difficult security, political and Germany and Indonesia are co-penhold- ing a presidential statement encouraging a humanitarian situation in Afghanistan and the ers on Afghanistan, and Indonesia chairs the free, fair and transparent electoral process under-development of the country. Members 1988 Taliban Sanctions Committee.

EU-UN Briefing

Expected Council Action for the EU members of the Council (includ- funds for post-conflict reconstruction in Syr- In March, the Council will hold its annual ing incoming and recently departed mem- ia will be directly linked to the UN-led politi- meeting on strengthening the partnership with bers) to make joint statements at the Council cal process. the EU under its agenda item on cooperation media stakeout presenting the EU position In the context of peacekeeping, the coop- between the UN and regional and subregion- on specific Security Council issues. eration between the EU and the UN is most al organisations in maintaining international In another effort to enhance this coordina- evident in Africa, where the two organisations peace and security. Federica Mogherini, the tion, Mogherini met with the foreign minis- work alongside one another in several coun- EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs ters of current EU members of the Council tries. The EU provides training for security and Security Policy, will brief the Council. on 28 January in Brussels. She emphasised forces and assists in security sector reform in bringing the EU’s views on peace and secu- the Central African Republic, Mali and Soma- Background rity and on the importance of multilateralism lia. The EU also provides salaries for the UN- Cooperation between the UN and the EU to the Council. authorised AU Mission in Somalia. Member has evolved over the years and has continued The briefings on cooperation between the states of the EU are the largest collective con- to grow in importance. Recognising this, the EU and the UN usually follow a consistent tributor to the UN peacekeeping budget, pro- Council has had a practice, starting in 2010, format. Mogherini is likely to emphasise the viding over 30 percent of total contributions. of holding annual briefings (except in 2012 areas of cooperation between the two organ- The EU has emphasised its commitment and 2018) on cooperation between the two isations, present the EU’s main foreign policy to preserving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of organisations. In 2014, the Council endorsed priorities and objectives, and address some of Action (JCPOA), an agreement which places this relationship when it adopted a presiden- the ongoing crises that occupy the agenda of limits on Iran’s nuclear programme and pro- tial statement on EU-UN cooperation. Since both the EU and the Council. vides sanctions relief. In May 2018, the US 2013, Council members have also met annu- The EU has maintained a strong interest unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA which ally with members of the EU Political and in finding a political solution to the conflict in the Council had endorsed in 2015 in resolu- Security Committee. Syria and has led major humanitarian efforts tion 2231. In January, France, Germany and The EU members of the Council have in the region. It has announced plans to orga- the UK announced the creation of a Special made a concerted effort to coordinate their nise a third Brussels conference on support- Purpose Vehicle which would facilitate legiti- positions and present a unified front on some ing the future of Syria and the region. At the mate financial transactions with Iran. The EU issues on the Council’s agenda, such as Koso- Brussels conference last year, donors pledged members of the Council have maintained a vo, Syria, Ukraine and Venezuela. Another $4.3 billion for humanitarian assistance. unified position on the importance of pre- practice that has emerged recently has been Mogherini has emphasised that eventual EU serving the JCPOA as long as Iran continues

UN DOCUMENTS ON EU-UN COOPERATION Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2437 (3 October 2018) renewed the authorisation for member states to inspect vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya that they have reasonable grounds to suspect are being used for migrant smuggling or human trafficking. S/RES/2231 (20 July 2015) endorsed the JCPOA. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2014/4 (14 February 2014) was on cooperation between the UN and the EU, highlighting the EU’s comprehensive approach to maintenance of international peace and security. Security Council Meetings S/PV.8200 (8 March 2018) was a briefing by the 2018 OSCE Chairperson-in-Office (Italy) to the Council. S/PV.7935 (9 May 2017) was a briefing on cooperation between the UN and the EU.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 13 EU-UN Briefing to adhere to its provisions. in Libya, the humanitarian situation in Iraq, sustainable development, among other issues. In addition, Mogherini is likely to discuss cooperation with other regional organisations, the Middle East peace process, the situation transnational crime, climate change, and

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Expected Council Action Tshisekedi’s Heading for Change coalition won December 2018 in which at least 890 people In March, the Council will renew the man- 46 seats, posing real questions as to whether were killed in four villages in Yumbi territory, date of the UN Organization Stabilization Tshisekedi will be able to achieve his agenda Mai-Ndombe province, in the west of the Mission in the Democratic Republic of the when his party is in the minority. With Prime country, apparently in clashes between the Congo (MONUSCO). Before that, a briefing Minister Bruno Tshibala due to submit the Banunu and Batende communities. On 13 on the Secretary-General’s latest report and government’s resignation soon, the new gov- February, the DRC army announced it had consultations with the head of MONUSCO, ernment is expected to be fully formed by April. arrested 15 people for alleged complicity in Leila Zerrougui, are likely. Meanwhile, opposition candidate Fayu- the killings. On 12 February, the spokesman MONUSCO’s mandate expires on 31 lu, whom several international and national for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees March 2019. groups considered the actual winner of the said there had been a rise in refugees com- election, wrote to the AU calling for another ing into the DRC from South Sudan, with Key Recent Developments round of elections in six months. Legislative approximately 5,000 having arrived in north- Felix Tshisekedi was inaugurated as presi- and provincial elections in fact still need to be east Ituri province border towns. dent on 24 January in what some are calling held in Beni, Butembo and Yumbi in March the first peaceful transfer of power in Demo- after being postponed because of government Sanctions-Related Developments cratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) history. concerns about Ebola and the security situ- The 1533 DRC Sanctions Committee met in a briefing on 1 February with UN member states Since then, he seems to have been accepted ation. In mid-January, Internet access was from the region. The meeting provided an oppor- by the region and the international commu- restored after being suspended on 31 Decem- tunity for those countries to comment on the nity, although the only head of state to attend ber 2018. Panel of Experts report. the inauguration was Kenya’s President Uhu- Apart from political developments, a major ru Kenyatta. In early February, Tshisekedi concern has been the Ebola situation. At press Human Rights-Related Developments attended the AU heads of state summit and time, over 800 people had been infected, result- On 19 March, the Human Rights Council is sched- uled to hold an enhanced interactive dialogue travelled around the region. At the summit, ing in at least 546 deaths, and about 80,000 during its 40th session on the oral update by the he held bilateral meetings with Paul Kagame people had been vaccinated. DRC Health High Commissioner for Human Rights on develop- of Rwanda, UN Secretary-General António Minister Oly Ilunga Kalenga has praised the ments in the human rights situation in the Kasai Guterres, and the EU’s High Representa- vaccination effort and believes it has contained region, as well as the report by the High Com- tive for Foreign Affairs, Federica Mogherini. the outbreak. Other organisations, however, missioner on the situation of human rights in the DRC before, during and after the December 2018 The EU and the DRC have also reached an remain worried about the continued spread elections (A/HRC/40/47). agreement for the EU’s ambassador to return of the disease. Médecins Sans Frontières has to Kinshasa after he was expelled by former reported a surge of cases since 15 January. Giv- Women, Peace and Security-Related President Joseph Kabila last December. Dur- en the suspension of healthcare activities dur- Developments ing a visit to the Republic of Congo-Brazza- ing the electoral season because of security and The Secretary-General’s January report on ville, Tshisekedi called for thousands of DRC capacity considerations, the numbers of regis- MONUSCO noted that conflict-related sexual violence continued during the reporting period, exiles to return to the country. tered cases may be increasing simply because including an increase in sexual violence in Ituri It remains to be seen how the new govern- these activities have resumed. On 8 February, Province perpetrated by both the Force de résis- ment will act. In his AU speech, Tshisekedi two Médecins Sans Frontières staff members tance patriotique d’Ituri (FRPI), often in the form called for the return of the rule of law follow- active in Ebola prevention were abducted in of gang rape and in association with the looting ing the elections, an end to corruption, and the Masisi health zone in North Kivu. While of villages. There were also reported incidents of rape by the Forces Armées de la République increased control by the DRC of its own the staff members were returned unharmed, Démocratique du Congo in Djugu, Ituri Province. resources. However, in the parliamentary elec- safety fears remain, and field operations were In Tanganyika Province, an upsurge in ethnically tion, the pro-Kabila Front for Congo (FCC) suspended at press time. motivated conflict-related sexual violence was coalition won 337 seats; opposition party In January, the Office of the UN High documented, and a worrying trend of mass rapes Lamuka, fronted by Martin Fayulu in the Commissioner for Human Rights reported by certain factions in northern Shabunda contin- ued, the report said. The report also noted that presidential election, received 102 seats; and that there was evidence of a massacre in MONUSCO paid greater attention to involving

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE DRC Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2409 (27 March 2018) renewed MONUSCO’s mandate until 31 March 2019. Secretary-General’s Report S/2019/6 (4 January 2019) covered the period from 2 October to 31 December 2018. Security Council Press Statements SC/13663 (15 January 2019) noted the announcement by CENI of pro- visional results of the presidential and provincial elections, welcomed the subsequent peaceful and stable situation, and encouraged any disputes to be dealt with through legal channels.

14 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2019 Democratic Republic of the Congo

women in countering the Ebola outbreak and The last strategic review took place in 2017, and gather information ahead of the mandate addressing the specific needs of women. and there are some questions whether its con- renewal. The members visited several cities clusions remain applicable today. in the DRC, among them Kinshasa, Goma Key Issues and Options and Beni. At the conclusion of the visit, the The main issue for the Council in March is Council Dynamics experts from those states appeared to agree the renewal of MONUSCO’s mandate. Giv- The Council met three times on the situ- that the situation in the DRC remains unpre- en that the electoral process is almost over, ation in the DRC in January but did not dictable and that a mandate change would be the existing mandate will need to be adjusted. meet in February. Having since moved on inadvisable until a new government is formed. Resolution 2409 of March 2018 requested from responding to December’s elections, it Some expressed optimism that this may be a the Secretary-General to support the elec- will be interesting to see if the divisions that new era of cooperation between the UN and toral process and report on such efforts to were apparent then resurface for the man- the government of the DRC. the Council. Given the continued fragile situ- date renewal. Some members do not want There has not been a press statement about ation after the elections, some members may to reconfigure the mission in an uncertain the situation in the DRC since 15 January propose a short mandate renewal, with few environment. On the other hand, the fact before the Constitutional Court’s ruling on the changes at this time. Several months from that MONUSCO and its predecessor, the validity of the elections, but it seems unlikely now, once the electoral process is finalised UN Mission in the DRC, have been in place that another press statement would be agreed and there is a new government in the DRC, since 1999, has led some to call for an exit upon now because of divergences by Council MONUSCO’s position could be re-evaluated. strategy and eventual drawdown. members on how to characterise the elections. If the latter type of mandate renewal At the end of January, France led an France is the penholder on the DRC, and occurs, the resolution is likely to include a experts-only mission to the DRC with the Kuwait chairs the 1533 DRC Sanctions request for an independent or strategic review Council’s European members, the US, and Committee. to better prepare for an eventual withdrawal, South Africa. The purpose of the trip was to exit strategy, or modification of MONUSCO. better understand the situation on the ground

Libya

Expected Council Action between two militias, the Kaniyat/7th Bri- protests by oil field guards and the local pop- In March, Council members are expected gade and the Tripoli Protection Force. This ulation over revenue allocation. The militia to receive a briefing in consultations by violence was the worst violation of a ceasefire known as the Libyan National Army (LNA), the Special Representative and head of the brokered with the support of UNSMIL in led by Khalifa Haftar, advanced its positions in UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), September 2018. According to the Ministry the south with the aim of expanding its influ- Ghassan Salamé, and the Deputy Perma- of Health, 16 people died during the episode. ence in the area. It eventually regained con- nent Representative of Germany, Ambas- On 21 January, tribal leaders from the nearby trol of the El-Sharara oil field and reportedly sador Jürgen Schulz, who chairs the 1970 town of Bani Walid brokered a truce which handed it over to the Tripoli-based National Libya Sanctions Committee. provided for the withdrawal of both militias, a Oil Corporation in February. As part of the The mandate of UNSMIL expires on 15 prisoner swap, and the exchange of bodies of southern offensive, there have been clashes September, and the mandate of the Panel of deceased fighters. In the absence of a recon- between the LNA and militias affiliated with Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions stituted Libyan army or sustainable security the internationally recognised GNA. Committee expires on 20 February 2020. arrangements, the Tripoli-based Government In the coming weeks, UNSMIL intends to of National Accord (GNA) continues to rely facilitate a national conference that is meant Key Recent Developments mostly on militias for its security. to build on a series of nationwide consul- February marked the eight-year anniversary of The security situation in the south remains tations convened by the private diplomacy the Libyan revolution, but a political settlement critical. The presence of criminal groups and organisation Centre for Humanitarian Dia- remains elusive. Briefing the Council on 18 Libya’s porous borders have added to existing logue during 2018. The event is expected to January, Salamé emphasised that the political grievances over the lack of economic oppor- provide an opportunity for Libyans to decide deadlock “has been underpinned by a complex tunities and general neglect. This situation how the nation should proceed to the end of web of narrow interests, a broken legal frame- has led to attacks against water pipelines and the transition. In his January briefing, Salamé work and the pillaging of Libya’s great wealth.” oil facilities, including the seizure of the Al- urged members of the various Libyan insti- On 16 January, clashes erupted in Tripoli Sharara oil field in December 2018 following tutions to see the upcoming conference “as

UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2441 (5 November 2018) renewed the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee as well as the measures related to the illicit export of crude oil from Libya until 15 February 2020. S/RES/2434 (13 September 2018) extended UNSMIL’s mandate until 15 September 2019. Secretary-General’s Report S/2019/19 (7 January 2019) was on UNSMIL. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8448 (18 January 2019) was the latest briefing by Salamé. Security Council Press Statement SC/13651 (27 December 2018) condemned the terrorist attack on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Tripoli. Sanctions Committee Documents S/2019/5 (2 January 2019) was a letter appointing six experts to serve on the Panel of Experts. S/2018/1176 (28 December 2018) was the annual report of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 15 Libya

a patriotic concern that transcends partisan Sanctions Committee, briefed the Council. This Key Issues and Options and personal interests”. was the first briefing by the chair of the commit- The successful organisation of the national One of the desired outcomes of the con- tee since September 2018, although these brief- conference and a political agreement on the ings usually take place every two months. As a ference is agreement on the holding of parlia- general practice, all members of the committee holding of elections in the coming months mentary and presidential elections as well as agree on the statement delivered by the chair to is critical for the Council and its support for a constitutional referendum. In addition to the Council. There was no briefing in November Libya’s transition. At the appropriate time security and logistical considerations, guar- 2018 because the committee could not reach and in support of Salamé’s work, Council antees that the results will be accepted and agreement over how to refer a visit to Libya ear- members might consider a visiting mission lier that month by then-chair Ambassador Olof respected by all are needed. Local elections in Skoog (Sweden). Later in the year, the committee to Libya and neighbouring countries to con- some 70 municipalities are expected to take was able to agree on language about the visit in vey a unified message to key stakeholders. As place in March, but the High National Elec- its annual report, which was also used in Schulz’s Council members consider increasing pres- tions Commission has warned that the elec- briefing: “While the approved terms of reference sure on major political actors, they could tions cannot be held unless additional fund- had indicated Tripoli and Beida as the two desti- issue a presidential statement threatening nations to be visited, the Committee only visited ing is made available for that purpose. Tripoli in November, owing to the closure of Beida those hindering the political process with The humanitarian situation in Libya remains Airport. The Chair intends to visit all areas agreed sanctions, while attempting to preserve their fragile. In addition to access restrictions, limit- in the terms of reference as soon as possible sub- engagement in the dialogue. Council mem- ed funding of the UN Humanitarian Response ject to logistical and security arrangements”. bers could also target with sanctions those Plan impedes the work of humanitarian actors. involved in grave human rights violations, An 18 December 2018 report of UNSMIL and Human Rights-Related Developments including, but not limited to, human traffick- On 21 March, during its 40th session, the Human OHCHR concluded that migrants and refugees Rights Council expects to consider the report ing and migrant smuggling. “suffer unimaginable horrors during their tran- of the High Commissioner for Human Rights on sit through and stay in Libya”. These include the situation of human rights in Libya, including Council and Wider Dynamics “unlawful killings, torture and other ill-treat- the implementation of technical assistance and Members are generally supportive of ment, arbitrary detention and unlawful depri- capacity-building and efforts to prevent and UNSMIL’s role in the stabilisation of Lib- ensure accountability for violations and abuses vation of liberty, rape and other forms of sexual of human rights (A/HRC/40/46). ya but have divergent views on how best to and gender-based violence, slavery and forced achieve this goal. Regarding the elections, labour, extortion and exploitation by both State Women, Peace and Security-Related whose timing was a source of tension among and non-State actors”. According to UNHCR, Developments members in 2018, it seems that members are 15,000 refugees and migrants arrived in Europe The Secretary-General’s January report noted now more united in looking towards a date in that women and girls were arbitrarily detained from Libya in 2018, a seven-fold reduction spring 2019, as suggested by Salamé as part of and deprived of their liberty, for their family affili- compared to the previous year, while intercep- ation or for “moral crimes”, including in facilities a recalibrated UN Action Plan. Although the tion by the Libyan Coast Guard increased dras- without female guards exposing them to the risk Council has repeatedly called upon member tically. OHCHR and UNSMIL maintain that of sexual abuse. The report welcomed the com- states to cease support for and official con- Libya cannot be considered a place of safety mencement of work by the Women Support and tact with parallel institutions in Libya, some for disembarkation following rescue or inter- Empowerment Unit under the Presidency Council, countries, including Council members, have adding that the “advancement of gender equal- ception at sea, given the considerable risk that ity and women’s full and effective participation in ignored this call. those who have been returned will be subjected political and economic life in Libya is paramount The UK is the penholder on Libya, and to serious human rights violations and abuses. for advancing peace and security.” The report Schulz, Germany’s Deputy Permanent Rep- also called on all Libyan actors to implement resentative, chairs the 1970 Libya Sanctions Sanctions-Related Developments Security Council resolution 1325. Committee. On 17 January, Schulz, the chair of the 1970 Libya

Yemen

Expected Council Action has planned a visit to the region at the end embargo, and renewed the mandate of the In March, the Council expects a briefing on of the month. Resolution 2456, adopted on committee’s Panel of Experts. the implementation of resolutions 2451 and 26 February, extended for an additional year 2452 by Special Envoy Martin Griffiths. the Yemen financial and travel ban sanctions, Key Recent Developments The 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee reaffirmed the provisions of the targeted arms Implementing the Stockholm Agreement,

UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2456 (26 February 2019) renewed the Yemen sanctions regime for an additional year. S/RES/2452 (16 January 2019) established the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA) for an initial period of six months. S/RES/2451 (21 December 2018) endorsed the agreements reached during consultations held in Sweden. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8464 (19 February 2019) was a briefing on Yemen. Security Council Press Statements SC/13713 (22 February 2019) called for the immediate implementation of the Phase 1 redeployment of forces from the Hodeidah agreement. SC/13690 (4 February 2019) stressed the critical importance of the parties’ fulfilling their commitments made in Sweden.

16 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2019 Yemen reached between the Yemeni government phase of redeployments, which entail the full issue. A new round of consultations has been and Houthi rebels at UN-brokered con- withdrawal of forces from Hodeidah city, on hold until further progress is made in ful- sultations in Sweden last December, has though further consultations were required filling the Hodeidah agreement. However, remained difficult, with only limited prog- with the leadership of each side. Griffiths recalled the importance of restart- ress. The Stockholm Agreement set out three Following a 19 February briefing and con- ing such talks during his last briefing. Upon different arrangements: a deal to avoid a sultations on Yemen, a Council press state- the parties agreeing on a negotiating frame- battle for the key port city of Hodeidah, an ment three days later stressed the “critical work, one option for the Council would be to executive mechanism to implement a pris- importance” of the parties’ implementing their adopt a resolution endorsing this framework, oner exchange agreement, and a statement commitments in the Stockholm Agreement. It as Griffiths has proposed. of understanding on the city of Taiz. called for “the immediate implementation” of The humanitarian crisis remains a criti- From 3 to 6 February, the Redeployment the first phase of the redeployment of forces. cal issue, with 24 million people in need Coordination Committee (RCC), which is A 26 February high-level pledging con- of humanitarian assistance and protection, chaired by the UN and oversees the agreement ference in Geneva raised $2.6 billion for the including over 10 million people at risk of on Hodeidah, held its first meeting in nearly 2019 Yemen humanitarian response plan, famine, according to the 2019 Humanitar- a month, bringing together the committee’s which OCHA says will require $4.2 billion. ian Needs Overview for Yemen of OCHA and Yemeni government and Houthi representa- the UN Country Team. Members are likely tives on a UN vessel anchored off Hodeidah. Key Issues and Options to reiterate their public calls for the parties to Discussion centred around UN proposals to Advancing implementation of the Stockholm facilitate humanitarian access, including the conduct the mutual redeployment of forces Agreement remains an immediate issue. This Red Sea mills and by re-opening the Sana’a- from the city of Hodeidah and the ports of includes fulfilling the new commitments on Hodeidah main highway. Hodeidah, Saleef and Ras Issa. Following Phase 1 troop redeployments, and reaching the third day of meetings, General Michael an agreement to implement Phase 2 rede- Council Dynamics Lollesgaard took over on 5 February as RCC ployments. Deploying UNMHA and scaling Members appear united in wanting the par- chair and as head of the UN Mission to sup- up the presence of other UN entities has also ties to fulfil their commitments under the port the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA), been a challenge. Moreover, there has not Stockholm Agreement. Two press statements succeeding General Patrick Cammaert. been tangible progress yet in implementing were issued in February to maintain this pres- On 16 and 17 February, the RCC held the prisoner exchange, which is overseen by a sure. Kuwait is part of the Saudi Arabia-led its fourth meeting, reaching an accord for supervisory committee chaired by the Office coalition that backs the Yemeni government implementing the first phase of the mutual of the Special Envoy and the ICRC, nor in and tends to champion coalition positions. It redeployment of forces set out in the deal on creating more humanitarian access to Taiz as has sought to facilitate political efforts, host- Hodeidah. In a first step, Houthi forces would envisioned in the statement of understand- ing peace talks for three months in 2016 and redeploy from the ports of Saleef and Ras Isa. ing on that city. Violence has decreased in providing aircraft to transport the Houthi In a second step, the Houthis would rede- Hodeidah, but other frontlines, in particu- delegation to the consultations in Sweden in ploy from Hodeidah port and both parties lar Hajjah governorate, have seen continued December 2018. Belgium, Germany, Peru would withdraw forces from critical parts of fighting. If the sides remain at an impasse in and Poland have been among members that the city of Hodeidah associated with humani- implementing the commitments regarding have sought to highlight issues around the tarian facilities. This would include opening Hodeidah, an option is for the Council to humanitarian crisis and international human- up the Red Sea mills, which hold sufficient adopt a presidential statement to exert great- itarian law. The US often raises concerns grain stocks to feed 3.7 million people for er pressure on the parties to follow through about the role of Iran, which it views as hav- one month but which have been inaccessible on those commitments. ing a destabilising effect on the region. since October. At the RCC meeting, the par- Resuming talks on a framework for a com- The UK is the penholder on Yemen. Peru ties also agreed, “in principle”, on the second prehensive political solution is another key chairs the 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee.

Great Lakes

Expected Council Action by Huang Xia. country issues in the Great Lakes region. In In March, Said Djinnit will brief the Coun- the Democratic Republic of the Congo cil for the last time as Special Envoy to the Recent Developments and Dynamics (DRC), elections were held on 30 Decem- Great Lakes Region, before being succeeded The Council continues to be seized of several ber 2018 after a two-year delay. Provisional

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE GREAT LAKES REGION Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2454 (31 January 2019) renewed sanctions on the CAR until 31 January 2020. S/RES/2448 (13 December 2018) extended the mandate of MINUSCA and the authorisation to use all means to provide operational support to MINUSCA until 15 November 2019. Secretary-General’s Report S/2019/147 (15 February 2019) was on MINUSCA. Security Council Meetings S/PV.8467 (21 February 2019) was a briefing on the CAR. S/PV.8465 (19 February 2019) was a briefing on Burundi.Security Council Press Statement SC/13701 (13 February 2019) welcomed the signing of the Global Peace Agreement in the CAR.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 17 Great Lakes results were announced on 10 January, High Commissioner for Human Rights said in the signing. The agreement was discussed declaring Felix Tshisekedi, head of the Union a statement that according to credible sources, during the briefing on the latest MINUSCA for Democracy and Social Progress, the win- at least 890 people were killed between 16 and report on 21 February. ner of the presidential election ahead of rival 18 December 2018 in four villages in Yumbi On Burundi, the political situation— opposition candidate Martin Fayulu and territory, Mai-Ndombe province, in clashes which deteriorated sharply after April 2015 former Interior Minister Emmanuel Rama- allegedly between the Banunu and Batende when Burundian President Pierre Nkurun- zani Shadary from then-President Joseph communities. (For more see the DRC brief ziza announced that he would run for a con- Kabila’s party. Despite protests from the in this Monthly Forecast.) troversial third term later that year—remains National Episcopal Conference of the Con- On the Central African Republic (CAR), unsettled. The future of the East African go (CENCO), which observed the elections the Council adopted resolution 2448 on 13 Community-led inter-Burundian dialogue, and claimed that Fayulu was the clear winner, December 2018, renewing the mandate of which has yet to produce results, is unclear Tshisekedi was inaugurated on 24 January. the UN Multidimensional Integrated Sta- after its facilitator, Benjamin Mkapa, pro- Notwithstanding questions surrounding bilization Mission in the Central African vided his final report concluding his work the election results, Council members seem to Republic (MINUSCA) until 15 November in December 2018 to the official mediator, have taken the view that the best way forward 2019. On 31 January, in resolution 2454, President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda. is to engage with the new president and his gov- the Council renewed the sanctions on CAR On 19 February, the Secretary-General’s ernment. Ahead of the UN Organization Sta- until 31 January 2020. The resolution further Special Adviser on Burundi, Michel Kafando, bilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO) expresses the Council’s intention to establish, and the Chair of the Burundi Configuration mandate renewal at the end of March, France no later than 30 April, benchmarks that could of the Peacebuilding Commission, Ambassa- led an expert-level visit to the DRC in Janu- serve as a potential basis for the Council to dor Jürg Lauber (Switzerland), briefed the ary that included European members, the US, lift the arms embargo currently placed on the Council, followed by consultations. During and South Africa. At the conclusion of the visit, government of the CAR. the meeting, some Council members, includ- some of the experts were of the view that the A Global Peace Agreement was signed by ing China and Russia, suggested that Burundi situation in the DRC remains unpredictable the CAR government and 14 armed groups, be removed from the Council’s agenda as the and that a mandate change would be inadvis- which still control vast parts of the country, security situation is stable. Others, such as able until a new government is formed in April. on 6 February under the auspices of the AU- the UK, argued that given the political situa- The security situation and human rights led African Initiative for Peace and Reconcili- tion and human rights violations, the Council violations in the DRC continue to be of con- ation in the CAR. On 13 February, Council should continue to be seized of the issue. cern. On 16 January, the Office of the UN members issued a press statement welcoming

Lebanon (1701)

Expected Council Action Special Coordinator following the departure formation of a government of national unity. In March, the Council expects to receive the of Sigrid Kaag in October 2017. Kubiš for- The Council welcomed this development in Secretary-General’s report on the implementa- mally assumed his post on 11 February and an 8 February press statement and empha- tion of resolution 1701, which called for a ces- subsequently held a series of meetings with sised the urgency of implementing structural sation of hostilities between the Shi’a militant high-level government officials. reforms and fulfilling commitments made dur- group Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. Briefings On 20 January, Lebanon hosted the Arab ing the major international donor conferences are expected from Ján Kubiš, newly appoint- Economic and Social Development Summit, for Lebanon in 2018. ed Special Coordinator for Lebanon, and pos- after which the participants issued a joint state- Hezbollah and its allies made major gains sibly from a representative of the Department ment calling for the creation of an Arab free at the May 2018 parliamentary elections while of Peace Operations. trade zone and international support for coun- Hariri’s Future Movement lost almost half of The mandate of the UN Interim Force in tries hosting refugees. Lebanon bears the bur- the seats it had held in the legislature. This Lebanon (UNIFIL) expires on 31 August. den of hosting over one million Syrian refugees, development provided Hezbollah with a better and it has continually called for their return negotiating position in talks, led by Hariri, on Key Recent Developments after the Syrian government took control of forming the new government. Hezbollah has The Secretary-General announced the most of the country’s territory. leveraged its increased representation to influ- appointment of Kubiš as the new Special After eight months of talks between the ence the appointment of the important post of Coordinator for Lebanon on 9 January. Per- major political parties, Lebanese Prime Min- health minister, whose ministry has a substan- nille Dahler Kardel had served as the acting ister Saad Hariri announced on 1 February the tial budget and receives foreign aid. The new

UN DOCUMENTS ON LEBANON Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2433 (30 August 2018) extended the mandate of UNIFIL for another year. S/RES/1701 (11 August 2006) increased UNIFIL by 15,000 troops and expanded its mandate. Secretary-General’s Report S/2018/1029 (15 November 2018) was on the implementation of resolution 1701. Security Council Letter S/2018/1182 (31 December 2018) contained the Secretary-General’s recommendations for improving the management of UNFIL’s civilian resources. Security Council Press Statement SC/13696 (8 February 2019) welcomed the formation of the national unity government in Lebanon.

18 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2019 Lebanon (1701) health minister, Jamal Jabbak, is not a member of their political, public information and secu- territorial integrity and security and for the of Hezbollah but is believed to have close ties rity strategies; ensure increased coordination country’s efforts to insulate itself from the with the group’s leadership. in the provision of support to the LAF; and damaging effect of the Syrian conflict. The The new government faces several imme- rationalise resources. The Special Coordinator Council has also recognised the decisive role diate challenges, most notably the mounting is responsible for managing UN activities and of the LAF in responding to security challenges. public debt and a lack of sufficient economic all political aspects of the mission. The force Members are divided, however, in their view growth. Furthermore, Lebanon is under pres- commander, who is also the head of UNFIL, is of the security dynamics in the region and the sure from the International Monetary Fund mainly responsible for peacekeeping issues and role of the mission. This has been particularly to initiate fiscal adjustments to address gov- the operational requirements of the mission. evident during the mandate renewal negotia- ernment debt, and another set of reforms is tions over the past two years. The US has con- required for Lebanon to access loans pledged Key Issues and Options tinued to emphasise the threat posed by Iran, during the 2018 Paris donor conference. With- The situation in UNIFIL’s area of operations Hezbollah, and the proliferation of weapons in in days of its formation, the new government has remained generally calm. The Council southern Lebanon and has promoted a more approved a set of economic reforms that it said remains concerned, however, that more than active role for UNIFIL in confronting these could be difficult, but also necessary, to avoid a decade after the adoption of resolution 1701, threats. The US has also raised concerns over further worsening of the country’s socio-eco- there has been little progress towards imple- the growing influence of Hezbollah in the new nomic conditions. menting its main objectives, including a per- Lebanese government. UNIFIL head and force commander Major manent ceasefire. On the mission’s configuration, the US has General Stefano Del Col chaired the month- A principal problem for the Council is strongly advocated for a reduction of UNI- ly tripartite meeting on 13 February with the that Hezbollah and other non-state actors FIL’s Maritime Task Force, leading towards Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the Israel still maintain significant amounts of weap- its eventual termination. Most other members, Defense Forces to discuss the situation along onry. This inhibits the government’s ability to however, share the view that the mission’s the Blue Line, the border demarcation between exercise full authority over its territory, poses mandate and tasks should remain unchanged. Israel and Lebanon. Noting that the situation a threat to Lebanon’s sovereignty and stability, These members are cautious about drastic had been calm over the past month, he com- and contravenes its obligations under resolu- changes in the mission’s mandate because of mended the parties for their cooperation. tions 1559 and 1701. A related issue is Hezbol- their potential impact on the fragile calm that In December 2018, the Secretary-General lah’s involvement in the Syrian civil war and the has been maintained in southern Lebanon for sent a letter to the Council with a set of rec- movement of arms from Syria to Hezbollah. over a decade. ommendations to improve the management of France is the penholder on Lebanon. UNIFIL civilian resources, as requested by res- Council Dynamics olution 2433. He suggested that UNIFIL and The Council continues to demonstrate uni- the Special Coordinator optimise coordination ty in its support for Lebanon’s sovereignty,

UNDOF (Golan Heights)

Expected Council Action Agreement between Israel and Syria, which Syria regained control. Some military activ- In March, the Council is expected to receive ended the Yom Kippur war, and is mandated ity was reported as part of the Syrian secu- a briefing on the activities of the UN Disen- to maintain the ceasefire between the parties rity forces’ efforts to clear the remnants of war gagement Observer Force (UNDOF). The and supervise the disengagement of Israeli from the area. According to the report, UND- Department of Peace Operations (DPO) is and Syrian forces as well as the so-called OF also observed an increase in Syrian armed expected to brief Council members in con- areas of separation and limitation. forces’ presence in the area, particularly in sultations on the Secretary-General’s latest The Secretary-General’s 6 December 2018 staffing a number of checkpoints. The Coun- 90-day report on UNDOF, due out in March, report, covering the period from 15 September cil stressed in resolution 2426 of June 2018 and on the most recent developments. to 20 November, said that despite several vio- that there should be no military activity of The mandate of UNDOF expires on 30 lations of the Disengagement of Forces Agree- any kind in the area of operations, which also June. ment of 1974, the ceasefire between Israel and relates to the Russian military police noted in Syria was largely being maintained. The report the report as being present occasionally in the Key Recent Developments noted that by August 2018, conflict had largely area of separation. UNDOF was established following the con- ceased in the areas formerly held by various The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) con- clusion of the 1974 Disengagement of Forces non-state armed groups as the government of tinued to fire across the ceasefire line and

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE GOLAN HEIGHTS Security Council Resolution S/RES/2450 (21 December 2018) renewed the mandate of UNDOF until 30 June 2019. S/RES/2426 (29 June 2018) renewed the mandate of UNDOF until 31 December 2018. Secretary-General’s Report S/2018/1088 (6 December 2018) was the latest report on UNDOF, which contained recommendations from the independent review.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 19 UNDOF (Golan Heights) Security Council Report Staff Karin Landgren Executive Director into the area of separation, according to the An independent review of UNDOF was Joanna Weschler report. UNDOF personnel also continued to conducted in September and October 2018. Deputy Executive Director observe crossings by unidentified individuals The review analysed the conditions of the Shamala Kandiah Thompson between Lebanon and the Bravo (Syrian) side mandate, particularly the “assumptions Deputy Executive Director and from the Bravo side to the Alpha (Israeli) that underpin” it and “the conditions for its Paul Romita Senior Policy Analyst side on a daily basis. The individuals crossing successful implementation”. The review’s were usually described in the report as shep- conclusions, highlighted in the Secretary- Victor Casanova Abos Policy Analyst herds and farmers. The Secretary-General’s General’s report, said that UNDOF plays Teale Harold report noted that the number of people cross- an important role in maintaining communi- Policy Analyst ing the southern part of the area of separation cations with the IDF and Syrian authorities Lindiwe Knutson decreased once a hospital providing humani- and that this function should remain. The Policy Analyst tarian assistance to people from the Bravo side review found that UNDOF had de-escalat- Vladimir Sesar was closed by the IDF in August 2018. ed tensions in several incidents. It recom- Policy Analyst

On 15 October 2018, the Qunaytirah mended trying to find further opportunities Eran Sthoeger crossing point, which had been closed since to build trust between the parties. Regarding Policy Analyst

2014, was reopened. UNDOF had been UNDOF’s eventual return to the Bravo side, Vanessa Tiede unable to help with humanitarian crossings the review urged the use of new observation Policy Analyst while the point was closed, but reiterated in technologies and noted that there would Benjamin Villanti the Secretary-General’s report that it now need to be significant reconstruction of the Policy Analyst remained ready to facilitate crossings. On 11 posts that had been abandoned. Robbin VanNewkirk February, the Syrian state-run SANA news The Council renewed UNDOF’s mandate Website Manager agency reported that Israel had fired missiles in a unanimous vote on 21 December 2018 Audrey Waysse Operations Manager on parts of the city of Qunaytirah. At press in resolution 2450. Maritza Lopez time, the Israeli military had not responded to Administrative Assistant queries, but the incident was widely covered Key Issues and Options Joëlle Santos in the region’s press. Ongoing issues for the Council are the Research Assistant Two UNDOF peacekeepers were lightly numerous violations of the Disengagement injured in August and October 2018 in Camp of Forces Agreement of 1974 and UNDOF’s Security Council Report is a non- profit organisation supported by the Faouar by stray bullets, according to the Sec- ability to implement its mandate, including Governments of Australia, Austria, retary-General’s report. UNDOF has not the deployment of appropriate technologies Belgium, Canada, Côte d’Ivoire, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, determined the origin of the shots nor their as recommended. Given Syria’s reassertion Indonesia, Ireland, Kuwait, Liechtenstein, intended target. UNDOF made further prog- of control over areas of separation and the Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Republic of Korea, ress towards a limited return to operations on reopening of the Qunaytirah crossing point, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and United Arab Emirates, the Bravo side in accordance with a phased UNDOF may be getting close to an eventual and Carnegie Corporation and the UNDOF plan, namely on phase two: prepa- full return to the Bravo side. The return of the MacArthur Foundation. rations for the reoccupation of observation situation to pre-2014 conditions may cause Design Point Five, NY posts. On 30 October, UNDOF’s Observer the Council to consider requesting the Sec- Group Golan was able to establish tempo- retary-General to resume a six-month report- Security Council Report 711 Third Avenue, Suite 1501 rary observation posts near three empty for- ing cycle instead of 90 days, as had been the New York NY 10017 mer posts. UNDOF’s mechanised infantry practice until December 2012. Telephone +1 212 759 6394 company has conducted more than 80 pro- Fax +1 212 759 4038 tected patrols since such patrols resumed on Council and Wider Dynamics Web securitycouncilreport.org whatsinblue.org the Bravo side in February 2018, as well as The Council remains largely united on this several assessment visits to parts of the area of issue, as evidenced by the unanimous reau- Follow @SCRtweets on Twitter separation. UNDOF still considers there to thorisation of the mandate in December. Nego- be significant threats to UN personnel in the tiations on the draft were relatively straightfor- area of UNDOF operations. The report high- ward and technical. There was little apparent lighted that on 12 and 13 September, UND- disagreement by members, and no states felt OF personnel worked in the area of the Bravo the need to give explanations of their votes. and Charlie gates at the Qunaytirah crossing Russia and the US are the co-penholders to remove mines, unexploded ordnance and on UNDOF. other remnants of war.

20 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2019