Wind Energy Industry Overview
Daniel Laird Wind Energy Technology Department Sandia National Laboratories Telephone: (505) 844-6188 E-mail: [email protected]
Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. Sandia National Laboratories
Albuquerque, New Mexico
Tonopah Test Range, Nevada
Kauai Test Facility, Hawaii
Yucca Mountain, Nevada Livermore, California WIPP, New Mexico Pantex, Texas 2008 Blade Workshop Wind Energy Research at SNL
• Began in the mid 1970’s
• Initially focused on vertical-axis wind turbines
• Since 1993, the program has focused on industrial-sized horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWT)
2008 Blade Workshop Installed Capacity World
Year: Installed MW Increase % Cumulative MW Increase % 2002 7,227 32,037 2003 8,344 15% 40,301 26% 2004 8,154 -2% 47,912 19% 2005 11,542 42% 59,399 24% 2006 15,016 30% 74,306 25% 2007 19,791 32% 94,005 27% Average growth - 5 years 22.3% 24.0% Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008
2008 Blade Workshop The 10 Largest Markets in 2007
Country 2005 2006 2007 Share % Cum. Share % USA 2,431 2,454 5,244 26.5% 26% P.R. China 498 1,334 3,287 16.6% 43% Spain 1,764 1,587 3,100 15.7% 59% Germany 1,808 2,233 1,667 8.4% 67% India 1,388 1,840 1,617 8.2% 75% France 389 810 888 4.5% 80% Italy 452 417 603 3.0% 83% Portugal 502 629 434 2.2% 85% UK 447 631 427 2.2% 87% Canada 239 776 386 2.0% 89% Total 9,918 12,711 17,653 Percent of World 85.9% 84.7% 89.2% Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008
2008 Blade Workshop U.S. Installed Wind Capacity (MW as of Jan 16, 2008)
New Hampshire Maine 1 42 Washington Vermont 1163 Montana North 6.0 146 Dakota Minnesota Oregon 345 1299 885 Idaho South Wisconsin Massachusetts New York 75 Dakota 53 5 Wyoming 425 98 288 Michigan 3 Rhode Island Iowa Pennsylvania Nebraska New Jersey 1 1273 294 73 Ohio 8 Utah Illinois 7 1 Colorado WV 1067 699 California Kansas 66 Missouri 2439 364 57
Tennessee Oklahoma 29 New Mexico 689 497
Texas 4356 Alaska 2
Hawaii 63 1 MW powers ~300 homes source: awea.org The 10 Largest Markets in 2007
Country 2005 2006 2007 Share % Cum. Share % USA 2,431 2,454 5,244 26.5% 26% P.R. China 498 1,334 3,287 16.6% 43% Spain 1,764 1,587 3,100 15.7% 59% Germany 1,808 2,233 1,667 8.4% 67% India 1,388 1,840 1,617 8.2% 75% France 389 810 888 4.5% 80% Italy 452 417 603 3.0% 83% Portugal 502 629 434 2.2% 85% UK 447 631 427 2.2% 87% Canada 239 776 386 2.0% 89% Total 9,918 12,711 17,653 Percent of World 85.9% 84.7% 89.2% Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008
2008 Blade Workshop The 10 Largest Markets by end of 2007
Country 2005 2006 2007 Share % Cum. Share % Germany 18,445 20,652 22,277 23.7% 24% USA 9,181 11,635 16,879 18.0% 42% Spain 10,027 11,614 14,714 15.7% 57% India 4,388 6,228 7,845 8.3% 66% P.R. China 1,264 2,588 5,875 6.2% 72% Denmark 3,087 3,101 3,088 3.3% 75% Italy 1,713 2,118 2,721 2.9% 78% France 775 1,585 2,471 2.6% 81% UK 1,336 1,967 2,394 2.5% 83% Portugal 1,087 1,716 2,150 2.3% 86% Total 51,303 63,203 80,415 Percent of World 86.4% 85.1% 85.5% Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008
2008 Blade Workshop Turbine Suppliers in 2007 Market Share
Top-10 Suppliers in 2007 % of the total market 19,791 MW
GAMESA (ES) 15.4% ENERCON (GE) 14.0%
SUZLON (Ind) 10.5% GE WIND (US) 16.6%
SIEMENS (DK) 7.1%
A CCIONA (ES) 4.4% GOLDWIND (PRC) 4.2% VESTAS (DK) 22.8% NORDEX (GE) 3.4% Others 10.5% SINOVEL (PRC) 3.4% Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008
2008 Blade Workshop Turbine Suppliers (2005 - 2007)
Domestic and Export (2005-2007) Domes tic Export
SINOVEL
ECOTÉCNIA
MITSUBISHI
GOLDWIND
NORDEX
ACCIONA
SIEM ENS
SUZLON
ENERCON
GAM ESA
GE WIND
VESTAS
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 MW
2008 Blade Workshop Global Wind Power Forecast Cumulative MW by end of 2007 & Forecast 2012 140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0 Europe USA Asia Rest of World
Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 2007 (94,005 MW) 2012 (287,940 MW)
2008 Blade Workshop Global Wind Power Projections Cumulative MW - Forecast 2012 & Prediction 2017 250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0 Europe North America Asia Rest of World Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 2012 (287,940 MW) 2017 (690,994 MW) Wind Power’s Share of World Power Generation
Generation Electricity gen. Electricity from all Wind Power's share Technology by Wind Power gen. sources of the world's electricity (BTM-C) (incl. Wind) IEA generation: Year: TWh TWh % 1996 12.23 13,613 0.09% 1997 15.39 13,949 0.11% 1998 21.25 14,340 0.15% 1999 23.18 14,741 0.16% 2000 37.30 15,153 0.25% 2001 50.27 15,577 0.32% 2002 64.81 16,233 0.40% 2003 82.24 16,671 0.49% 2004 96.50 17,408 0.55% 2005 120.72 17,982 0.67% 2006 152.35 18,576 0.82% 2007 194.16 19,189 1.01% 2012 (forecast) 605.4 22,571 2.68% 2017 (est.) 1573.8 26,549 5.93% Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 ; World Figures: IEA World Energy Outlook 2007 Phenomenal Growth - No End in Sight! Global Wind Industry
• 25% growth rate, 1990-2007 (actual)
Cumulative Global Wind Power Development • 25% growth rate Actual 1990-2007 Forecast 2008-2012 Prediction 2013-2017 2008-2012 (BTM) 700,000 600,000
• 19% growth rate 500,000 2013-2017 (BTM) 400,000 MW 300,000
200,000
100,000
0 1990 2007 2012 2017
Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 Prediction Forecast Existing capacity 2008 Blade Workshop