Famine Early Warning 3 March 2003 Systems Network

Highlights

• FEWS NET has issued a food security warning for , indicating that certain population groups are now, or are about to become, highly food insecure. These groups will be forced to reduce consumption, dispose of their productive assets and take increasingly irreversible actions that undermine their future food security. The areas of most immediate concern are remote parts of Gaza, Tete and Inhambane Provinces.

• Comparisons of the current drought to past events show that the current season’s rainfall, from October-January, was the lowest in more than 50 years in . This year’s drought is much more severe than last year’s, and is similar in spatial extent and severity to the 1991/92 drought.

• NGOs and others working in the field have provided qualitative reports on the food security situation in the affected zones. The situation is becoming critical in areas where crop failure is combined with a lack of diversity in access to food and income, such as the interior of Gaza and Inhambane and southern Tete. In southwest Tete, reports of hunger-related deaths in January sparked several emergency assessments, which resulted in immediate increases in food aid deliveries for general and supplementary feeding.

• Pockets of food insecurity exist in other areas where crops have failed. Although most people have alternative sources of food and income, the poorest households may be expending their remaining resources quickly.

• New season maize is starting to enter the market in a few places. Retail prices remain higher than in previous years, although prices should start to decrease in the coming months.

• Tropical cyclone Japhet made landfall on 2 March 2003, with the eye of the cyclone passing near Vilankulos District in . Damage assessments are still underway, but preliminary reports indicate many traditional houses and trees have been destroyed and several injuries have occurred. The storm will dissipate over land as it heads across southern Sofala and Manica toward Zimbabwe.

This monthly bulletin is produced by FEWS NET in collaboration with its partners, including the Early Warning Department (DAP) and the Agricultural Market Information System (SIMA) of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADER), the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Program (WFP).

The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) is funded by USAID and managed by Chemonics International, Inc.

FEWS NET Mozambique • Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development • National Directorate of Agriculture PO Box 1406 • Maputo, Mozambique Telephone: (258-1) 460588/494488 • Facsimile: (258-1) 460588/499791 • E-Mail: [email protected] FEWS NET issues food security warning

FEWS NET issued a food security warning for Mozambique on 28 February 2003. A warning is issued when “population groups are now, or about to become, highly food insecure, unable to meet their own food needs during the given consumption period. These groups will be forced to reduce consumption, dispose of their productive assets and take increasingly irreversible actions that undermine their future food security."

In summary, the warning states:

“A serious deterioration in the food security status of vulnerable populations in southern and central Mozambique is occurring and is expected to worsen over the next twelve months. A near- total crop failure in some zones, following a poor harvest last year, has been the primary cause of the current situation. Food insecurity is most critical in remote zones where household access to food and income is heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture, such as the interior of Gaza and Inhambane and southern Tete. Other contributing factors include human, plant and animal diseases, as well as the economic situation in neighboring Zimbabwe. Malnutrition rates after last year’s poor harvest were already higher than in most of the region. Rates are likely to increase markedly in the coming year after households consume whatever crops they harvest and exhaust their already weakened coping strategies.”

The full text of the warning can be found here.

Comparative drought analysis: current drought versus past events

As the focus on the severity of the drought situation increases, it is useful to compare the current drought with past events to provide some historical perspective.

Figure 1

Total Rainfall for October-January 1951-2003 Station: Maputo (Lat.: 25.58°S Lon.: 32.36°E Elevation: 60 m)

1000 900

800 700

600 500 400

Rainfall (mm) Rainfall 300 200 100 0 1951/52 1952/53 1953/54 1954/55 1955/56 1956/57 1957/58 1958/59 1959/60 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03

Source: INAM

1. Lowest rainfall in 50 years in Maputo Maputo’s rainfall station is one of the few stations with robust historical data, largely unaffected by periods of war or disasters. At the Maputo station, the current season’s rainfall from October-January was the lowest since modern records started in 1951/52.

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2. Current versus last year Last season’s drought in the south and central regions resulted in an estimated 650,000 people requiring emergency food aid and unacceptably high malnutrition rates in many areas. Even though last year’s drought caused these serious outcomes, it was not a ‘severe drought’ in historical terms. This season’s drought, however, is very severe, in both historical and absolute terms, and the consequences are likely to be much worse than last year.

The high-resolution satellite image (from the MODIS satellite) below shows the difference in vegetation between 2003 and 2002, for the period of 17 January to 1 February. It is important to note that this image does not compare the current situation to normal, but to last year’s drought. Highlights of a few critical areas are indicated on the diagram, coinciding with the classification of extremely worrying districts (see the Mozambique Food Security Update of 6 February 2003).

Figure 2

Source: USGS

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3. Current drought versus 1991/92 drought The most severe drought in recent memory was the 1991/92 drought. Comparisons of satellite images of vegetative growth show stark similarities between the current drought and the 1991/92 drought. A sequence of images throughout both growing seasons clearly shows parallels between the two seasons, especially for and elsewhere in Southern Mozambique near the peak dekad for “greenness”.

Figure 3 Vegetation (NDVI) 21-31 January 2003 21-31 January 1992 Average – Same period

Source: NASA/USGS

Above normal rainfall in the north and mostly below normal in center and south

Cumulative rainfall, reported by the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) for the period from January 1 - February 10, 2003, shows a continuation of the same patterns seen for most of the year: above normal in the north, normal to below normal in the center and well below normal in the south.

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Figure 4: Observed versus Normal Rainfall: 1 January – 10 February 2003

North: The entire region has North 1200 registered above normal rains, especially the Nampula ground 1000 Observed station which has accumulated Normal more than 250 percent of 800 normal rains in the 40-day 600 period from 1 January through 10 February.

Rainfall (mm) Rainfall 400

200

0 Lichinga Cuamba Nampula Angoche Observed 513 395.4 972 486.3 Normal 341.8 319.6 386.2 300.9 Percent of Normal 150% 124% 252% 162%

Centre Centre: A mixed picture 450 characterized the central region. 400 The Quelimane ground station 350 in Zambézia received slightly 300 above normal totals, while Tete 250 and Beira were slightly below 200 normal. An area of concern is

R ainfall (m 150 Chimoio, Manica where rainfall 100 was only 23 percent of normal 50 0 for this critical period. Field Tete Quelimane Chimoio Beira reports confirm growing fears of Observed 176.1 412.5 75.9 306.2 crop losses in Manica. Normal 232.2 331.7 323.4 381.4 Percent of Normal 76% 124% 23% 80%

South South: The southern region, 250 without exception, was characterized by below normal 200 rains. Although some dispersed 150 rains have occurred, their distribution was very irregular 100 and the amount was Rainfall (mm) 50 insignificant. In some cases, 0 the rains may increase fodder Vilankulos Inhambane Xai-Xai Maputo for animals or improve soil Observed 46.8 116.3 118.4 70.4 moisture for off-season or Normal 195.8 163.9 178 185.1 second season planting. Percent of Normal 24% 71% 67% 38%

Source: INAM

Field reports confirm increasing food insecurity

As one might expect, given the severity of the current drought (outlined above), there are growing indications that many households are increasingly unable to cope with the drought’s effects, especially in the south and part of the central region. Excessive rains in the north have also raised concerns. In this 5 report, a number of NGOs and local officials have provided qualitative reports of the food security situation on the ground. These reports complement the qualitative assessment of the crop prospects presented in the last FEWS NET Food Security Update (February 6), based on joint analysis by MADER, FAO and FEWS NET. Quantitative estimates of production and the resulting emergency needs are expected after the annual Food and Crop Supply Assessment, planned for April/May.

The severely food insecure zones share three key characteristics:

1. a complete failure of rain-fed agriculture this season, after a poor season last year (and the year before, in some cases); 2. limited production and income strategies; 3. sparsely populated, remote locations with difficult access and poor markets.

This combination of factors is especially prevalent in the interior of Gaza, southwest Tete, and the interior of Inhambane. In these remote areas, much of the population was already food insecure because of last year’s drought. At this time of year, the harvest should be peaking and food should be readily available. But due to the near total crop failure, households are resorting to extreme measures to cope, including the migration of part or all of the family, the withdrawal of children from school, and the consumption of dangerous or unpalatable wild foods. (In southwest Tete, reports of hunger-related deaths in January sparked several emergency assessments, which resulted in immediate increases in food aid deliveries.)

Pockets of food insecurity exist in other parts of Gaza, Inhambane, Maputo, Sofala and Manica Provinces as well, where a complete or near complete crop failure may have occurred, but alternative sources of production or income offer most households some options to access food. Poor households in these provinces, however, may not have access to these alternative sources of production or income, and may become increasingly food insecure as the year progresses.

Gaza Province

The interior districts of Massangena, Chicualacuala, Chigubo, Mabalane and Massingir are the most severely affected in Gaza Province. In these districts, a common strategy households employ to cope with recurrent drought is to plant in lowland areas, a strategy which normally guarantees at least some production even if the larger-scale upper land plantings fail. But this year, even lowlands are dry and have produced very little. NGOs report poorer groups are surviving on roots, wild fruits, leaves and by drinking a traditional beverage known as “ucanhu”, where it still exists. Even the seeds for planting have been consumed.

Other key coping strategies employed in Gaza include increased illegal migration to South Africa, increased sales of personal items such as clothes, as well as home-made articles, traditional drinks, cattle, etc. and increased search for employment in district headquarters, such as Chókwe. Although the situation is marginally better in Chókwe and Guijá, NGOs report significant needs in remote areas of those two districts.

Water is becoming a major concern as small streams and lakes are drying up and the pasture for livestock is becoming scarce. The level of the Massingir dam is progressively lowering and the users of the Chókwe irrigation system have been warned of the possibility of its gates closing entirely if no significant rain falls.

A number of NGOs have reported that the situation is indeed worsening. A few of these reports are summarized below:

• The Lutheran World Federation staff reports that people are leaving their homes in search of food and water in parts of Mabalane. Food supplied by WFP for food-for-work activities covers only a small percentage of the needy population. Many people are turning to illegal tree felling and charcoal production, damaging the local environment. The number of school children quitting school is increasing, as all household members are busy searching for food. Households with

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goats are selling them to buyers from Maputo. Foot and mouth disease in cattle has led authorities to ban exports.

• In Chigubo, CARITAS reports that two school children died after losing consciousness while in school. The cause of the deaths is unknown, but CARITAS has started a school feeding program to reduce hunger and help keep children in school. They report that the lowlands are very dry and that access is very difficult in Chigubo because of the poor roads.

• In Chicualacuala, Samaritans Purse International Relief reports that crops failed completely this year and food stocks are exhausted. It can not confirm hunger-related deaths, but fears they could occur in the coming months if significant assistance in not forthcoming. Food distributions in Chicualacuala cover only 9,000 of the 36,000 people in the district. The NGO believes 95 percent of the population is in urgent need of assistance.

The second season production is entirely dependent on the February, March and April rains. Since the soil is currently very dry, residual moisture from the first season will not help establish plants as usual. If good rains fall, people hope that by May/June some areas will be able to get vegetables and even green maize.

Inhambane Province

According to NGOs on the ground, the situation in Inhambane is also serious.

• Igreja Methodista Unida de Moçambique reports that household food security is deteriorating in Funhalouro, Mabote, Govuro and Mambone, with household consumption patterns reflecting this trend. Normally at this time of year, households consume food from their own production, but with this year’s poor production, people are already purchasing food – something that does not happen until later in the year, if at all. Fishing (for coastal areas) and hunting (in the interior) are also significant sources of food for families. However for the poorest families, purchasing power is limited. Food is available but access to it is limited due to high prices.

Distress sales of livestock are increasing. Although it is normal to sell livestock to obtain cash, this is an unusual time of year for such sales to be increasing. The sales will rapidly deplete families’ assets, and reduce expenditure on other household basics such as education and health care. Absenteeism from school is also increasing. Current coping strategies will be exhausted quickly, and people will depend increasingly on aid with hopes that the second season will yield some harvest.

• Care International reports that in household food stocks are completely depleted, and people are facing a second consecutive crop failure. An increasing number of students are dropping out of school due to hunger and water scarcity. • In , DFID reported that the food security situation is serious. While crop production in this district is always uncertain, and households, therefore, also depend on other income sources such as hunting, livestock, alcohol sales, and hardwood pole sales, the almost- complete failure of the harvest for the second year in a row means that many of the normal coping mechanisms are likely to become exhausted (since the market for these goods is likely to be weak) and hunger will rise in 2003. • An assessment of the crop and food security situation carried out by ADRA, an NGO working in on the promotion of cashew nut trees, echoes reports from other districts. The crops in the district have been undermined by the ongoing drought, consistent with the surrounding districts of Funhalouro, Panda and Jangamo.

Maize is totally lost with no chance of recovery. Cassava and beans are severely affected due to high temperatures. The leaves, according to ADRA, have yellowed, preventing people from eating

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them. According to ADRA, the recent rains that fell in Inhambane Province did not reach Homoine, and the district needs urgent food assistance.

Southern

Several joint missions, comprised of Government, UN agencies and NGOs, visited the districts of Magoe and Changara after nine deaths, reportedly from starvation, occurred in January. The missions found that populations of Magoe district (Administrative Post of Chinthopo) and (Administrative Post of Marara and Chioco) are facing extreme food insecurity. The deaths were attributed to illnesses that were aggravated by hunger. The widespread consumption of wild roots and fruits indicated a complete depletion of food stocks and non-existent or limited access to food. Another indicator of this limited access is that many families were migrating from the interior to the margins of the Zambezi valley. The primary reason for the food security problem was poor production in the last two years due to prolonged drought, combined with floods in the previous year. In addition, no food was available in the markets, and households are getting very little income from their usual sources.

To make matters worse, the political problems in Zimbabwe have negatively affected this part of Tete. In normal years, many farmers in Tete plant cotton using inputs procured in Zimbabwe and sell their output to Zimbabwe. This income is no longer available. In addition, a number of impoverished returnees from Zimbabwe are seeking food and income in this area, competing for scarce resources with the resident population. WFP has initiated a program of supplementary feeding for children in the area, and has stepped up deliveries of scheduled food assistance. Some food is now getting through to these areas, although much of it has to be transported through Zimbabwe and border complications have slowed deliveries.

Other Provinces

As reported above, the seasonal rainfall in this year was worse than any year in the last 50 (1951-2003). Although it is assumed that households in Maputo Province have access to strong markets and multiple employment opportunities (and that, therefore, crop production is not as important), there is growing evidence that the poorest segment of the population may be unable to benefit from these markets and opportunities. High food prices and low terms of trade for key commodities (including labor) are likely to be making poor households even poorer, especially in remote parts of the Province. Additional analysis of the situation in Maputo is necessary.

ACDI/VOCA in of reported that the rainfall is poor. Isolated areas have had rain and will produce something, but the majority of the first maize crop was lost and the replanted maize needs to receive rain in the coming weeks. Remittances and trade with Zimbabwe, normally important for food security in the area, are no longer viable options.

According to the Provincial Agriculture Services and Care International, crop prospects remain good in spite of the above normal rainfall observed in the northern region, especially in the south of , in Moma, Angoche, Mongicual and Mogovolas districts. In areas where the first planting was lost, extra seed was distributed for replanting. Many farmers have planted maize instead of cotton this year, in response to the relative change in prices for the two commodities. In some areas, farmers have planted extensive areas with maize for the first time. The heavy rains are encouraging more rice production and second season planting, but have had a much greater impact on the infrastructure than agriculture. Roads and bridges were badly affected and access is difficult. The start of the marketing season is approaching, and if damaged roads cannot be repaired quickly then farmers in districts far from the main roads, such as Malema, Lalaua, Ribaue, Mogovolas, Moma, Angoche and Mogincual, will not be able to sell their crops. This could have a more serious impact on livelihoods than damage to crops caused by heavy rains, potentially increasing the price of essential food and non-food items and inhibiting their ability to sell their surpluses, decreasing the amount of income that households are able to earn this year.

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New season maize entering markets; real and nominal consumer prices analyzed

Although the majority of markets are being supplied by last year’s maize harvest, SIMA reports that recently harvested maize is appearing in a few markets, especially in central and northern Mozambique. There are no indications of this season’s crop in southern markets yet, mostly due to the near total crop failure in the south. According to SIMA, most of the markets still have adequate supplies. In some of the northern markets prices are declining although in areas where heavy rains are observed, the prices are slightly higher, because of transportation constraints.

Even though Maputo prices have Figure 5 been relatively stable for the

Retail Maize Prices in Maputo (nominal) past few months, they are

7000 higher than those of recent years. In fact, maize prices in 6000 Maputo have been higher than

5000 normal for nearly two years, even when the effects of 4000 inflation are removed.

3000 Price Mt/Kg The graph to the left shows 2000 actual prices of maize for the

1000 98-99 99-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 past five years. As shown, current prices, at just over 6000 0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar meticais per kg, are more than Months twice as high as the average price which prevailed between Source: SIMA 1998/99 and 2000/01. Prices should begin to decline as the final stocks from last season are disposed of, and new season production enters the markets. Weekly prices for early February show exactly this occurrence.

The second graph shows real prices, stated in December 1998 terms. The Consumer Price Index has been used as a means to remove the effects of general inflation from the analysis. The real price analysis shows a similar trend, although when current Figure 6 prices are converted Retail Maize Prices in Maputo to 1998 meticais, the (real, in 1998 prices based on CPI Dec 98) 5000 differences are moderated somewhat. 4500 Average 98/99-00/01

Prices remain more 4000 2001-02 than 50 percent above 2002-03 3500 those seen in the previous years. 3000 2500

The prices in Maputo Price Mt/Kg 2000 markets are also heavily influenced by 1500 the cost of 1000 transportation. Given 500 the poor production outlook for the 0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar southern third of the Months country, domestic Source: SIMA 9 maize in the Maputo market will come from the central region this year, and high transport costs will increase consumer costs. The harvest outlook in South Africa remains promising, so imported maize may help moderate Maputo prices in the coming months.

In general, the consumer is paying more in the last two years than they did previously, not only in Maputo but also in other urban markets. A detailed study is needed to determine the impact of the higher prices on peoples’ access to food and overall livelihoods and whether people are changing their customary habits.

Tropical Cyclone “Japhet” hits Southern Mozambique

On 2 March 2002, the very intense tropical cyclone “Japhet” (category 4) hit the coast of Mozambique between southern Sofala and northern Inhambane provinces. The most affected areas include in Sofala, Vilankulos, Inhassoro, Govuro, Massinga, Morrumbene, Maxixe and Inhambane Districts in Inhambane. In Vilankulos, 180mm of rain fell in 24 hours and winds reached 170 Km/hr.

Preliminary reports from the affected areas say that the cyclone destroyed or damaged infrastructure, including traditional houses, electricity and telephone lines, trees and crops. Many roofs were blown off in towns. Some injuries and deaths have been reported.

According to INAM, the cyclone weakened to a tropical depression after making landfall. It is currently moving in a northwest/westerly direction towards Zimbabwe at a speed of 14 km/hr. The latest position, as of 3 March 2003, was 20.7 South and 33.30 East or between Chivababa, Sofala and Espungabera, Manica nearing the Zimbabwe border. The maximum sustained wind was 65 km/hr.

Figures 7 and 8

Sources: INAM; http://www.mtotec.com; and http://www.meteo.fr/

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