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Massive Black-Hole Binary Mergers: Dynamics, Environments & Expected Detections

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Massive Black-Hole Binary Mergers: Dynamics, Environments & Expected Detections Massive Black-Hole Binary Mergers: Dynamics, Environments & Expected Detections The Harvard community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters Citable link http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:40050091 Terms of Use This article was downloaded from Harvard University’s DASH repository, and is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http:// nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of- use#LAA Massive Black-Hole Binary Mergers: Dynamics, Environments & Expected Detections a dissertation presented by Luke Zoltan Kelley to The Department of Astronomy in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the subject of Astronomy and Astrophysics Harvard University Cambridge, Massachusetts April 2018 ⃝c 2018 – Luke Zoltan Kelley all rights reserved. Dissertation Advisor: Lars Hernquist Luke Zoltan Kelley Massive Black-Hole Binary Mergers: Dynamics, Environments & Expected Detections Abstract This thesis studies the populations and dynamics of massive black-hole binaries and their mergers, and explores the implications for electromagnetic and gravitational-wave signals that will be detected in the near future. Massive black-holes (MBH) reside in the centers of galaxies, and when galaxies merge, their MBH interact and often pair together. We base our study on the populations of MBH and galaxies from the ‘Illustris’ cosmological hydrodynamic simulations. The bulk of the binary merger dynamics, how- ever, are unresolved in cosmological simulations. We implement a suite of comprehensive physical models for the merger process, like dynamical friction and gravitational wave emission, which are added in post- processing. Contrary to many previous studies, we find that the most massive binaries with near equal- mass companions are the most efficient at coalescing; though the process still typically takes gigayears. From the data produced by these MBH binary populations and their dynamics, we calculate the expected gravitational wave (GW) signals: both the stochastic, GW background of countless unresolved sources, and the GW foreground of individually resolvable binaries which resound above the noise. Ongo- ing experiments, called pulsar timing arrays, are sensitive to both of these types of signals. We find that, while the current lack of detections is unsurprising, both the background and foreground will plausibly be detected in the next decade. Unlike previous studies which have predicted the foreground to be signifi- cantly harder to detect than the background, we find their typical amplitudes are comparable. With traditional electromagnetic observations, there has also been a dearth of confirmed detections of MBH binary systems. We use our binaries, combined with models of emission from accreting MBH systems, to make predictions for the occurrence rate of systems observable using photometric, periodic- variability surveys. These variables should be detectable in current surveys, and indeed, we expect many candidates recently identified to be true binaries - though a significant fraction are likely false positives. Overall, this thesis finds the science of MBH binaries at an exciting cusp: just before incredible break- throughs in observations, both electromagnetically and in the new age of gravitational wave astrophysics. iii Contents 0 Introduction 1 0.1 Massive Black Holes and Galaxies ................................. 3 0.1.1 Cosmological Simulations ................................. 5 0.1.2 Illustris ........................................... 7 0.1.3 Binary Dynamics ...................................... 9 0.2 Gravitational Wave Signals & Pulsar Timing Arrays ....................... 11 0.3 Electromagnetic Observations ................................... 14 0.4 Thesis Preview ............................................ 16 1 Massive Black Hole Binary Mergers in Dynamical Galactic Environments 18 1.1 Introduction ............................................. 19 1.2 The Illustris Simulations ...................................... 28 1.2.1 The Black Hole Merger Population ............................ 28 1.2.2 Merger Host Galaxies ................................... 30 1.3 Binary Hardening Models ...................................... 33 1.3.1 Dynamical Friction ..................................... 33 1.3.2 Stellar Loss-Cone Scattering ................................ 39 1.3.3 Viscous Hardening by a Circumbinary Disk ....................... 41 1.3.4 Gravitational-Wave Emission ............................... 50 1.4 Results ................................................ 50 1.4.1 Binary Lifetimes ...................................... 51 1.4.2 The Gravitational Wave Background (GWB) ...................... 58 1.4.3 The Populations of MBHB ................................. 69 1.4.4 MBH Triples ........................................ 75 1.5 Conclusions and Summary ..................................... 77 2 The Gravitational Wave Background from Massive Black Hole Binaries in Il- lustris: spectral features and time to detection with pulsar timing arrays 92 2.1 Introduction ............................................. 93 2.2 Methods ............................................... 95 2.2.1 Illustris MBH Mergers and Environments ........................ 95 2.2.2 Models for Eccentric Binary Evolution .......................... 95 2.2.3 Gravitational Waves from Eccentric MBH Binaries ................... 98 2.2.4 Detection with Pulsar Timing Arrays . 101 2.3 Results ................................................105 2.3.1 Eccentric Evolution .....................................105 2.3.2 Gravitational Wave Backgrounds .............................110 2.3.3 Pulsar Timing Array Detections ..............................116 2.4 Conclusions .............................................121 3 Single Sources in the Low-Frequency Gravitational Wave Sky: properties and time to detection by pulsar timing arrays 136 3.1 Introduction .............................................137 3.2 Methods ...............................................140 3.2.1 MBH Binary Population and Evolution . 140 3.2.2 Detection Statistics and Pulsar Timing Array Models . 142 3.3 Results ................................................144 3.3.1 The Structure of the Low-Frequency GW Sky . 144 3.3.2 Parametric Dependencies .................................150 iv 3.3.3 Times to Detection .....................................153 3.4 Discussion ..............................................159 3.4.1 Caveats ...........................................159 3.4.2 Conclusions .........................................160 4 Massive BH Binaries as Periodically-Variable AGN 169 4.1 Introduction .............................................172 4.2 Methods ...............................................173 4.2.1 MBH Binary Population and Evolution . 173 4.2.2 MBH Accretion and AGN Spectra ............................175 4.2.3 Observation Parameters and Calculations . 179 4.2.4 Models of Variability ....................................181 4.3 Results ................................................183 4.3.1 Doppler Variable Binaries .................................183 4.3.2 Hydrodynamically Variable Binaries . 187 4.4 Discussion ..............................................189 4.4.1 Caveats ...........................................189 4.4.2 Conclusions .........................................191 5 Conclusions 203 5.1 Summary ...............................................203 5.2 The Future ..............................................206 A Appendix 209 1.1 Frequently used Abbreviations ...................................209 1.2 Frequently used Symbols and Values ................................210 References 234 v Eurydice had no more adoration, Alexander no better instruction, Adam no better creation. To Mom & Dad, the best teachers anyone has ever had, and the best parents in the universe—which I now say with authority. vi Acknowledgments Throughout this work I use ‘we’. Each time I am reminded of the countless coauthors, advisors, col- leagues & friends who have made this thesis, and indeed my learning and career as a whole, not only pos- sible but productive & enjoyable. Acknowledgments, even the length of this thesis, would still be woefully inadequate to describe the gracious gifts of so many people who have supported me. Thus, especially as a scientist and not a poet, mere pages—and truly, any mere words—of thanks and recognition seem insult- ing to such kindness and good fortune. Please take the acknowledgements below, despite their inevitable omissions, as a brief glimpse into the true depths of my gratitude. I can only say that beneath these words are a full heart, and a will determined to manifest from my great privilege, great good—to the world, to society, and to science... First and foremost I want to acknowledge the tremendous support and encouragement provided by my advisor, Lars Hernquist. When I approached Lars four years ago, the topics I had in mind were well outside of the standard wheel-well of the prodigious and prolific Hernquist group, yet Lars was unhesi- tant in entertaining my ideas and welcoming me into the fold. The topics I have chosen to work on have little overlap, besides in tool sets, those that Lars has studied, but he has been no less available for dis- cussion, advice, and always volunteers kind words which are ever important for a graduate student’s at- times-delicate morale. Lars has
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