USAID Mini- Grid Feasibility Study Technical Analysis

January 2020 , Niger

ECODIT, PowerGen, & SNV Revised CLIN 5-B TechnicalAnalysis

January 2020 CLIN 5 – Batch 2 Geographical Context • 17 Sites Visited and Analyzed • , Dosso, Maradi, Regions

4 CLIN 5 - Batch 2 Load Assumptions 1. All demand and load calculations are estimated for 60% of the town population. Connection fees were assumed to be $0 and the full 60% of customers are assumed to connect in the first year. 2. All load estimates are calculated using survey results and scaled by the % of connections sampled and the average number of buildings per household in each town, based on enumeration. 3. All displayed electric grid designs assume 100% digitized buildings will be connected, but budgets reflect 60% connection rate. This enables potential grid owners or investors to individually the optimize grid design, however the distribution system costs are reduced by 50% to assume that only the most efficient 60% of customers are connected to the grid. Customers in marginal, outlying areas can be excluded from electrical service in order to optimize the CAPEX, as presented in the results of this analysis. 4. Power will be 24 hours/day and 7 days/week to achieve Tier 5 energy access pursuant to ESMAP and WBG definitions. 5. Customers who own several buildings within the same compound are considered to be only 1 connection. 6. Future load estimates are based on an estimated 25% increase in demand, and the models assume each mini- grid must be capable of supplying the full 125% of estimated demand with the infrastructure proposed for initial construction in the first year. The models do not distinguish between adding new customers versus increasing load for existing customers -- total demand growth is 25%. CLIN5 – Batch 2 Assumptions • To convert technical losses, 10% operating reserve has been added to all. For grids with MV lines and transformers, the operating reserve is 15%. • Productive Loads are unique to each town and based on the surveys. • Eaton towers were modeled separately, with the following load: • 50 kWh/day for towers without solar • 33 kWh/day during nighttime for towers with on-site solar • Minimum Renewable Energy Fraction for all mini-grids is 85%. As the system degrades with time, operations should remain at least 75% solar, which is an important threshold for donors and investors with carbon emissions reduction targets. • Every site will include a diesel generator for backup and reliability purposes. The diesel gensets will only be operated in Load Following mode, therefore they will not be used to charge the batteries, but only to serve load under circumstances when neither solar or batteries are available. • For each simulation, the cost of diesel was modeled in accordance with survey results 5 collected by enumerators at each mini-grid site. CLIN 5 – Batch 2 Assumptions

• Ability To Pay: past energy expenditures without mini-grid • Willingness To Pay: customers’ self-disclosed monthly power budget • Discount Rate: 15% • NIGELEC Tariff: $0.17/kWh • Single Phase PAYG Meters: $95/connection • Single Phase Customer Power Kits: $152/connection • Maximum 30m Customer Drop from LV network to customer connection • Wooden poles will be used: • 9m = $350/pole installed, dressed, including accessories • 11m = $370/pole installed, dressed, including accessories

5 CLIN 5 – Batch 2 Assumptions • Where MV is needed, only power serving the distant areas will be transformed. Areas within 600m of the power house will be served directly with LV. • Annual O&M cost $500/site for part-time technicians, plus technical O&M for power generation assets for traveling technicians, as shown in table below. • Smallest site is 16kWp solar, regardless of LCOE. • Fixed system costs per site:  Power-house with multiple battery racks $15,000 for large systems > 100 kWh battery system  Power-house with single battery rack $10,000 for small systems < 100 kWh battery system Survey Results and Expected Revenue Engineering Results and Budgetary Analysis Preliminary Economic Payback Projections Estimation of Raw Economics 1 village, 1 Azagor village, Maradi region Azagor village, Maradi region 2 Boultoum village, 2 Boultoum village, Zinder region Boultoum village, Zinder region 3 Malori village, Zinder region 3 Droum Malori village, Zinder region Droum Malori village, Zinder region 4 Fadama village, 4 Fadama village, Dosso region Fadama village, Dosso region 5 Gada village, Zinder region 5 Gada village, Zinder region Gada village, Zinder region 6 GadabejiVillage, Maradi region 6 Gadabeji village, Maradi region Gadabeji village, Maradi region 7 Karamba village, Zinder region 7 Karamba village, Zinder region Karamba village, Zinder region 8 Kelle Boukar Midi village, Zinder region 8 Kelle Boukar Midi village, Zinder region Kelle boukar midi village, Zinder region 9 Kissanbana village, Zinder region 9 Kissanbana village, Zinder region Kissanbana village, Zinder region 10 Koboday village, Zinder region 10 Koboday village, Zinder region Koboday village, Zinder region 11 Lido village, Dosso region 11 Lido village, Dosso region Lido village, Dosso region 12 Maimoujia, Zinder region 12 Maimoujia, Zinder region Maimoujia, Zinder region 13 Malawa village, Zinder region 13 Malawa village, Zinder region Malawa village, Zinder region 14 Soubdou village, Zinder region 14 Soubdou village, Zinder region Soubdou village, Zinder region 15 Tagris village, Maradi region 15 Tagris village, Maradi region Tagris village, Maradi region 16 Tchangari village, Zinder region 16 Tchangari village, Zinder region Tchangari village, Zinder region 17 Tondigamey, Dosso region 17 Tondigamey, Dosso region No.of digitised buildings 407 % of community sampled 19 Expected no. of connections 79 Average no. of buildings owned 3 per family Average number of people 12 per household Average income ($/month) 88 Ability to pay ($/month) 2 Willingness to pay ($/month) 10 Consumption per user (kWh/day) 0.22 Tower consumption (kWh/day) 83 Productive load consumption (kWh/day) 6.5 Total site consumption (kWh/day) 107 Tondigamey, Dosso region

Productive Load Number Water Pumps 1 Threshing Machines 0 Welding Machines 0 Grinding Machines 1 Total 2 Batch 2 Load Assumptions

Current Loads Used Customer Surveys evaluated household desire for the Productive Loads from survey results. following appliances. The most commonly mentioned loads are shaded in purple.

Water Threshing Grinding Welding Mobile Light Bulb Radio Television Pumps Machines Machines Machines Phones

Printer/ Grooming Computer Microwave Photocopier Appliances Most Common Residential Loads from Survey Results. Stereo Lantern/ CD/DVD Electric Fan Sound Torch Players System Mobile Lantern/ Light Bulb Radio Phone Torch Satellite TV Electric Iron Fridge Freezer Service Batch 2 HOMER Energy Assumptions • HOMER Energy is the industry-standard modeling software for mini-grid analysis. Indicative HOMER Simulation (Gada) • Odyssey uses HOMER Energy as its optimization engine for mini-grid simulations. Solar Energy • The software is designed to analyze the size of various Available to electrical generation and storage resources necessary to Grid serve a load forecast estimated for an individual facility DayHours the (0 of or an entire village. • The analysis is constrained by equipment cost, efficiency, and operating constraints defined by the user. • For each of the towns in Batch 2, HOMER Energy State of Charge simulated thousands of options for sizing the mini-grid in Battery assets in order to distribute power 24 hours per day, 365 days per year. This analysis produced various operational 24) – results for every hour of the year. • The simulation results were then optimized to find the Energy from lowest levelized cost of energy (LCOE), which is the Diesel “optimal” result for each town that PowerGen has Generator Set presented in the table on the following slide. • The full HOMER Energy models and reports have been Days of the year (0 – 365) shared with ECODIT, USAID, and ANPER via dropbox links.