be er logis cs for ci es. be er ci es for logis cs.
Webinar LEDS LAC – Marzo 11, 2015
Edgar E. Blanco • [email protected]
h p://megacitylab.mit.edu
E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 1 E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 2 E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 3 E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 4 Urbaniza on is here to stay
• Wave of urban growth (2011-2050) – From 7.0 to 9.3 billion – 78% to 86%, developed urban areas – 47% to 64%, less developed urban areas • More ci zens, more consumers – 30 to 50 tons of goods per capita – 300 to 400 truck trips per 1000 ci zens per day • Urban freight makes up 10%-15% of total miles traveled
Sources: UN(2011), Dablanc(2011), Giuliano et. al. (2013), mashable,com
E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 5 Ci es with popula on > 5M 1900s 1950s 2000s
(1) (5) (78) London ~ 6.5M Tokyo ~ 13M Tokyo ~ 35M Osaka(?), New York ~ 4M New York ~ 12M Mumbai, Mexico City ~ 20M Paris, Berlin ~ 3M Osaka ~ 9M São Paulo, New York ~ 19M Tokyo ~ 1.5 London ~ 8M Shanghai ~ 17M Paris, Shanghai ~ 5M Kolkata, Delhi ~ 16M Beijing, London ~ 15M LA, Buenos Aires ~ 12M Rio, Paris, Manila~ 11M Moscow, Istanbul ~ 10M
Source: E.Blanco (MIT) - MGI, Forbes, University of Cologne .... 45 more
E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 6 São Paulo ...
Source: Barbieri, USP, 2012
E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 7 Shanghai …
Source: h p://dailynewsdig.com/high-resolu on-aerial-photos/
E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 8 Tokyo …
Source: h p://dailynewsdig.com/high-resolu on-aerial-photos/
E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 9 Mexico City …
Source: h p://dailynewsdig.com/high-resolu on-aerial-photos/
E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 10 Urban density to new levels
Popula'on)Density)0)people)per)sq.km.) 50,000$ 44,000$ 45,000$ 40,000$
35,000$ 32,300$ 30,000$ 25,700$ 25,000$ 22,800$ 19,800$ 20,000$ 16,700$16,600$ 14,400$13,800$ 12,400$12,400$ 15,000$ 11,600$11,300$11,300$11,200$ 10,500$10,100$ 9,900$ 9,800$ 9,800$ 10,000$ 5,000$ 0$
Lima$$ Dhaka$$ Lagos$$ Karachi$$ Bogotá$$Manila$$ Lahore$$ Tehran$$ Istanbul$$ Bandung$$ Singapore$$ Hong$Kong$$ Kolkota,$WB$ Pune,$MAH$ Mexico$City$$ Mumbai$MAH$ Ahmedabad,$GUJ$ Delhi,$DLOHROUP$ (Dem.$Rep.)$Kinshasa$ Korea$SeoulOIncheon$
Source: MIT Megacity Logis cs Lab. Demographia.
E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 11 Source: Urban Age Programme. LSE. 2007.
E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 12 Fonte: Paulo Saldiva from C. Cunha Barbieri, USP (2013)
E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 13 The rise of the nanostore
E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 14 The rise of the nanostore
People per Store
250
200
150
100
50
0
Apaxco Chalco La Paz Acolman Ozumba Tultepec Axapusco Cocotitlán IxtapalucaJilotzingo Tepetlixpa Tezoyuca Nopaltepec Temamatla Zumpango Chicoloapan HuehuetocaHuixquilucan Teotihuacán Tequixquiac ChimalhuacánCuatitlán Izcalli Nezahualcóyotl Tenango del Aire Tlalnepantla de Baz Atizapán de Zaragoza Ecatepec de Morelos Naucalpan de Juárez
Valle de Chaco Solidaridad San Martín de las Pirámides
E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 15 In Summary … • More people, more boxes • More income, more boxes per person • More density, more boxes per km2 • More conges on, more nanostores • More conges on, more home deliveries • More logis cs … same infrastructure…
E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 16 THE URBAN LOGISTICS POLICY DILEMMA How to balance quality of life with consumer needs?
E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 17 The Urban Freight Dilemma Barrier 1: People vs. Boxes Model for urban development “incompa ble” with logis cs efficiency
Good for People Mixed economic ac vity, more public transport, less vehicles More public transport, less roads More pedestrian, less roads Bad for Boxes More people, more boxes More consolida on of logis cs ac vi es Bigger warehouses, bigger trucks of incoming products Logis cs sprawl
Sources: Giuliano et. al. (2013), Smaller trucks in, with less roads
E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 18 Findings San ago Case Study Loca on of minimum Loading/Unloading Spaces 4,000 1 1,801 deliveries per km2 2 loading/unloading area establishments/km excludes office supplies & home deliveries • projected at 7,000 for per block Centro Santiago area
Hyphothesized freight parking loca on
E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 19 The Urban Freight Dilemma Barrier 2: Policy complexity
Complex urban freight policies
No “blanket” solu ons • Diversity of freight needs between economic sectors – Ice cream vs. Computers – Water vs. Cosme cs • Diversity of urban areas
Jurisdic onal Fragmenta on • Metropolitan areas, ci es, neighborhoods • Port authori es, ci es
Image Sources: Pesquisa Origem-Destino 2007 RMSP – Relatório Síntese
E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 20 Freight transporta on CO2 drivers
Product Planning Profile Driving Prac ces Load Customer Engine Expecta ons Efficiency (Shippers) Equipment Distance Fuel (Carriers) (Network) Conges on types
Fuel Consump on Infrastructure & CO2
E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 21 The “carbon-efficiency” math
$$$ = D x W x Rate
CO2 = D x W x EF
êRate ≈ êEF
22 E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on The Urban Freight System na onal/global economy
supply chains
urban economy
logis cs system
distribu on network
route delivery or pick-up
driver/city/customer interac ons (hours)
last-mile opera ons, vehicle fleets (days)
inventory management, facili es, channel management, demand management (months)
mul -company, markets, land-use, infrastructure management, policy (years)
strategy, compe veness, development E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on (decades) 23
na onal/global economy Regional/Port supply chains planning policy
Local planning urban economy policy logis cs system Off-hour distribu on network road deliveries LEZ pricing route Rail adapta on delivery or pick-up
driver/city/customer interac ons (hours)
last-mile opera ons, vehicle fleets (days)
inventory management, facili es, channel management, demand management (months)
mul -company, markets, land-use, infrastructure management, policy (years)
strategy, compe veness, development E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on (decades) 24
Source: Winkenbach, Spinler, Blanco (2013)
E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 25 CLOSING THOUGHTS
E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 26 be er logis cs for ci es. urban channel strategy excellence in last-mile opera ons high-resolu on urban logis cs design be er ci es for logis cs. data-driven policy making innova on in urban freight planning
E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 27 be er logis cs for ci es. be er ci es for logis cs.
Thanks!
Edgar E. Blanco • [email protected]
h p://megacitylab.mit.edu
E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authoriza on 28