beer logiscs for cies. beer cies for logiscs.

Webinar LEDS LAC – Marzo 11, 2015

Edgar E. Blanco • [email protected]

hp://megacitylab.mit.edu

E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 1 E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 2 E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 3 E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 4 Urbanizaon is here to stay

• Wave of urban growth (2011-2050) – From 7.0 to 9.3 billion – 78% to 86%, developed urban areas – 47% to 64%, less developed urban areas • More cizens, more consumers – 30 to 50 tons of goods per capita – 300 to 400 truck trips per 1000 cizens per day • Urban freight makes up 10%-15% of total miles traveled

Sources: UN(2011), Dablanc(2011), Giuliano et. al. (2013), mashable,com

E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 5 Cies with populaon > 5M 1900s 1950s 2000s

(1) (5) (78) London ~ 6.5M Tokyo ~ 13M Tokyo ~ 35M Osaka(?), New York ~ 4M New York ~ 12M Mumbai, City ~ 20M Paris, Berlin ~ 3M Osaka ~ 9M São Paulo, New York ~ 19M Tokyo ~ 1.5 London ~ 8M Shanghai ~ 17M Paris, Shanghai ~ 5M Kolkata, Delhi ~ 16M Beijing, London ~ 15M LA, Buenos Aires ~ 12M Rio, Paris, Manila~ 11M Moscow, Istanbul ~ 10M

Source: E.Blanco (MIT) - MGI, Forbes, University of Cologne .... 45 more

E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 6 São Paulo ...

Source: Barbieri, USP, 2012

E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 7 Shanghai …

Source: hp://dailynewsdig.com/high-resoluon-aerial-photos/

E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 8 Tokyo …

Source: hp://dailynewsdig.com/high-resoluon-aerial-photos/

E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 9

Source: hp://dailynewsdig.com/high-resoluon-aerial-photos/

E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 10 Urban density to new levels

Popula'on)Density)0)people)per)sq.km.) 50,000$ 44,000$ 45,000$ 40,000$

35,000$ 32,300$ 30,000$ 25,700$ 25,000$ 22,800$ 19,800$ 20,000$ 16,700$16,600$ 14,400$13,800$ 12,400$12,400$ 15,000$ 11,600$11,300$11,300$11,200$ 10,500$10,100$ 9,900$ 9,800$ 9,800$ 10,000$ 5,000$ 0$

Lima$$ Dhaka$$ Lagos$$ Karachi$$ Bogotá$$Manila$$ Lahore$$ Tehran$$ Istanbul$$ Bandung$$ Singapore$$ Hong$Kong$$ Kolkota,$WB$ Pune,$MAH$ Mexico$City$$ Mumbai$MAH$ Ahmedabad,$GUJ$ Delhi,$DLOHROUP$ (Dem.$Rep.)$Kinshasa$ Korea$SeoulOIncheon$

Source: MIT Megacity Logiscs Lab. Demographia.

E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 11 Source: Urban Age Programme. LSE. 2007.

E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 12 Fonte: Paulo Saldiva from C. Cunha Barbieri, USP (2013)

E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 13 The rise of the nanostore

E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 14 The rise of the nanostore

People per Store

250

200

150

100

50

0

Apaxco Chalco La Paz Cocotitlán IxtapalucaJilotzingo Nopaltepec Chicoloapan HuehuetocaHuixquilucan Teotihuacán ChimalhuacánCuatitlán Izcalli Nezahualcóyotl Atizapán de Zaragoza de Juárez

Valle de Chaco Solidaridad San Martín de las Pirámides

E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 15 In Summary … • More people, more boxes • More income, more boxes per person • More density, more boxes per km2 • More congeson, more nanostores • More congeson, more home deliveries • More logiscs … same infrastructure…

E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 16 THE URBAN LOGISTICS POLICY DILEMMA How to balance quality of life with consumer needs?

E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 17 The Urban Freight Dilemma Barrier 1: People vs. Boxes Model for urban development “incompable” with logiscs efficiency

Good for People Mixed economic acvity, more public transport, less vehicles More public transport, less roads More pedestrian, less roads Bad for Boxes More people, more boxes More consolidaon of logiscs acvies Bigger warehouses, bigger trucks of incoming products Logiscs sprawl

Sources: Giuliano et. al. (2013), Smaller trucks in, with less roads

E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 18 Findings Sanago Case Study Locaon of minimum Loading/Unloading Spaces 4,000 1 1,801 deliveries per km2 2 loading/unloading area establishments/km excludes office supplies & home deliveries • projected at 7,000 for per block Centro Santiago area

Hyphothesized freight parking locaon

E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 19 The Urban Freight Dilemma Barrier 2: Policy complexity

Complex urban freight policies

No “blanket” soluons • Diversity of freight needs between economic sectors – Ice cream vs. Computers – Water vs. Cosmecs • Diversity of urban areas

Jurisdiconal Fragmentaon • Metropolitan areas, cies, neighborhoods • Port authories, cies

Image Sources: Pesquisa Origem-Destino 2007 RMSP – Relatório Síntese

E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 20 Freight transportaon CO2 drivers

Product Planning Profile Driving Pracces Load Customer Engine Expectaons Efficiency (Shippers) Equipment Distance Fuel (Carriers) (Network) Congeson types

Fuel Consumpon Infrastructure & CO2

E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 21 The “carbon-efficiency” math

$$$ = D x W x Rate

CO2 = D x W x EF

êRate ≈ êEF

22 E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon The Urban Freight System naonal/global economy

supply chains

urban economy

logiscs system

distribuon network

route delivery or pick-up

driver/city/customer interacons (hours)

last-mile operaons, vehicle fleets (days)

inventory management, facilies, channel management, demand management (months)

mul-company, markets, land-use, infrastructure management, policy (years)

strategy, compeveness, development E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon (decades) 23

naonal/global economy Regional/Port supply chains planning policy

Local planning urban economy policy logiscs system Off-hour distribuon network road deliveries LEZ pricing route Rail adaptaon delivery or pick-up

driver/city/customer interacons (hours)

last-mile operaons, vehicle fleets (days)

inventory management, facilies, channel management, demand management (months)

mul-company, markets, land-use, infrastructure management, policy (years)

strategy, compeveness, development E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon (decades) 24

Source: Winkenbach, Spinler, Blanco (2013)

E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 25 CLOSING THOUGHTS

E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 26 beer logiscs for cies. urban channel strategy excellence in last-mile operaons high-resoluon urban logiscs design beer cies for logiscs. data-driven policy making innovaon in urban freight planning

E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 27 beer logiscs for cies. beer cies for logiscs.

Thanks!

Edgar E. Blanco • [email protected]

hp://megacitylab.mit.edu

E.Blanco © 2015 • Do not copy or quote without authorizaon 28