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ENERGY ADVISOR a WEEKLY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE February 19, 2021

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ENERGY ADVISOR a WEEKLY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE February 19, 2021 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR ENERGY ADVISOR A WEEKLY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org February 19, 2021 BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TOP NEWS Nigel Blackaby Global Head, OIL & GAS International Arbitration Group, Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer What Will Mexico’s State Firms Risk Jeffrey Davidow Wasting $400 Bn Senior Counselor, The Cohen Group CFE Prioritize in Amid Transition Jonathan C. Hamilton A new report by the Natural Partner, Resource Governance Institute White & Case the Next Five Years? says national oil companies could Raul Herrera squander $400 billion over the next Partner, 10 years as the energy transition Corporate & Securities Practice, Arnold & Porter accelerates. State oil firms in Latin America are particularly at risk. James R. Jones Chairman, Page 2 Monarch Global Strategies Jorge Kamine POWER SECTOR Partner, Corporate & Financial Services, Rolling Blackouts Willkie Farr & Gallagher Hit Mexico Amid Craig A. Kelly Senior Director, Texas Winter Storm Americas Int’l Gov’t Relations, Mexican state-owned electric utility CFE, which is led by Manuel Bartlett Díaz, last month Exxon Mobil Rolling blackouts have hit several published its business plan for the 2021-2025 period. // File Photo: Mexico’s Senate. Mexican states as officials struggle Jorge León to adapt to a shortage of electricity Energy Economist, BP caused by severe winter storms in Last month, Mexican state-owned electric utility Federal Texas, which supplies natural gas Jeremy Martin Electricity Commission, or CFE, published its 2021-2025 Vice President, Energy & Sustainability, to Mexico. Institute of the Americas business plan, including estimated investments of about Page 2 Mayya Novakovskiy Q $3.12 billion this year on efforts to overhaul its generation Manager, Western Hemisphere, OIL & GAS Chevron capacity, a 20 percent increase from last year. What are the most im- Larry Pascal portant elements of the CFE’s business plan? Are the utility’s estimated Guyana Cancels Chairman, investment levels adequate, and how far will they go in advancing its Americas Practice Group, Tender for Oil Haynes & Boone plans? What role will private investment play in Mexico’s electricity sec- Marketer: Jagdeo R. Kirk Sherr tor in the coming years, and can future power auctions be expected? The Guyanese government has can- President, celed a revised auction to market Clearview Strategy Group Larry B. Pascal, member of the Energy Advisor board, and its share of crude from its Stabroek Mark Thurber block and is evaluating direct offers Partner, Natalia Cosio, both members of the International Practice Hunton Andrews Kurth from international firms instead, Group at Haynes and Boone LLP: “Mexico’s CFE released its said Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo. Jose L. Valera Page 2 Partner, 2021-2025 business plan, detailing its project portfolio and Mayer Brown LLP A estimated investments in generation, distribution and transmission for Lisa Viscidi power projects. The plan contemplates an investment equivalent of ap- Program Director, Inter-American Dialogue proximately $19 billion for the construction of several new power plants Vanessa Wottrich and the development and maintenance of distribution and transmission Principal Analyst for Latin America, Equinor infrastructure. In particular, the plan includes the construction of 13 power generation plants, primarily located in the states of Baja California, Baja California Sur, Yucatán and Veracruz (eight of these proposed proj- ects are combined cycle power plants), and with these new projects, the CFE seeks to achieve 54 percent market share in the generation segment by 2024. As to distribution, approximately 100 projects are estimated for the development and modernization of the power distribution grids, Jagdeo // File Photo: Guyanese Continued on page 3 Government. COPYRIGHT © 2021, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 1 LATIN AMERICA ENERGY ADVISOR February 19, 2021 POWER SECTOR NEWS OIL AND GAS NEWS NEWS BRIEFS Rolling Blackouts Hit State Oil Firms Risk AES Gener Secures $306 Million for Projects Mexico As Winter Wasting $400 Billion in Chile and Colombia Storms Sweep Texas Amid Transition Chilean power utility AES Gener has secured approximately $306 million in a capital Rolling blackouts hit several Mexican states National oil companies worldwide risk wasting increase to finance wind, solar and battery this week as officials struggle to adapt to $400 billion on expensive oil and gas proj- storage projects in Chile and Colombia, Renew- a shortage of electricity caused by severe ects over the next 10 years that may break ables Now reported last week. The company’s winter storms in Texas, the Associated Press even only if the world fails to meet the Paris controlling shareholder, AES Corporation, reported. Bitterly cold winter weather north of climate goals, according to a new report by participated in the capital hike, expanding its the U.S.-Mexico border cut supplies of natural the Natural Resource Governance Institute, or ownership stake to 67 percent. The firm said gas that much of northern Mexico relies upon NRGI, Reuters reported last week. In the report, the transaction involved some 1.976 billion to generate electricity, leading numerous called Risky Bet, the NRGI estimated that state shares. factories in Mexico to shut down. The National oil firms could invest $1.9 trillion over the next Council of the Maquiladora Industry said as decade, of which one-fifth of those investments many as 1,600 plants were forced to halt would be unviable unless oil prices stay above operations because of a lack of power, putting $40 a barrel. “State oil companies’ expendi- LNG Canada Receives OK hundreds of thousands of people out of work, tures are a highly uncertain gamble,” said David to Ramp Up Construction the wire service reported. Authorities were Manley, a senior economic analyst at NRGI, a Canadian health officials have approved the announcing rolling blackouts via Twitter with- New York-based NGO, Reuters reported. “They ramping up of construction at Royal Dutch out coordinating with the factories, said the could pay off, or they could pave the way for shell’s LNG Canada export project with im- organization’s president, Luis Hernández. Much economic crises across the emerging and de- proved Covid-19 protection measures, Reuters of northern Mexico was without reliable power veloping world and necessitate future bailouts reported last week. The province’s health through Wednesday, and blackouts stretched that cost the public dearly,” added Manley, officer last month ordered work at the sites of into central Mexico, as far south as Guerrero who co-wrote the report. Latin American and five major industrial projects, including LNG state. Beginning late Sunday, unexpectedly Caribbean countries would be among the worst Canada, to be reduced amid pandemic-related low temperatures in Texas froze natural gas positioned in such a scenario, in part because concerns. Among the measures, local workers pipelines, cutting off private plants that supply heavy debt burdens are already causing prob- at the project will not be able to leave the site some 80 percent of northern Mexico’s electrici- lems for national companies such as Mexico’s except for medical emergencies or “critical” ty. Mexico uses natural gas to generate approx- Pemex and because Latin American countries’ in-person appointments, LNG Canada said. imately 60 percent of its power nationwide. The oil companies continue to hold expansion- winter storms led Texas’ power grid to become ist views, Reuters reported. “Throughout overwhelmed amid soaring demand for electric their history, Latin American countries have heat. “No one’s model of the power system argued, by and large, that the state has to own Power From Renewable envisioned that all 254 Texas counties would ‘strategic’ industries,” Jose L. Valera, a partner Sources Up 63 Percent come under a winter storm warning at the at Mayer Brown and member of the weekly Year-on-Year in Argentina same time,” said Joshua Rhodes, an expert on Energy Advisor board, said in a Q&A published Texas’ electrical grid at the University of Texas May 22. “The results are perennial losses, bad The amount of electricity generated by at Austin. Mexican state power utility CFE said services, scarcity, technological lapse and renewable energy sources in Argentina was that it is planning to develop a fuels storage inefficiencies,” he added. In the same edition, up 63 percent year-on-year in 2020, according policy to offset future gas supply shortages. Thea Riofrancos, an assistant professor in the to wholesale electricity market administrator CFEnergía, its fuels division, will develop “a Department of Political Science at Providence Cammesa, Renewables Now reported last strategic commercial and operative storage College, told the Energy Advisor that Latin week. In total, it produced 12,742 giga- policy that will minimize negative impacts of America is at a crossroads. “Government can watt-hours (GWh) of renewable energy, an abrupt price movements and drastic variations either embrace a just transition to renewable increase from the 7,811.5 GWh generated in in the volumes ordered by Mexico to generate energy … or double-down on oil and gas, 2019. Wind power was the source, generating electricity,” said director Miguel Reyes in a CFE betting on industries with an uncertain future,” 74 percent of the total electricity from renew- board meeting, Argus Media reported. she said. able sources, followed by solar power, with 11 percent, and hydropower,
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