The Situation in the Region of Tigray

Security Council

1. Introduction

On November 4, 2020, the Horn of Africa erupted once more into a state of war. Ethiopian federal forces had moved against their own region of Tigray, as a result of an alleged attack on a federal military base by local militias. Following weeks of fighting, the military offensive ended with “order being restored in the region”, as announced by Ethiopian authorities. The one-month conflict resulted in numerous refugees fleeing their homes, many allegations of human rights violations, distrust between the numerous ethnicities in Ethiopia and a promise from local partisans that the war was far from over.

The situation is critical as two major issues have arisen. The first issue is the Humanitarian Crisis and the allegations of Human rights violations. Many International organisations have spoken about them, while a growing influx of refugees promises even more problems for the region. The second one is the proliferation of the Tigray Conflict. There are many reasons to believe that this was just the beginning and fighting will resume in the region, possibly though in new forms, or even with new parties. Measures should be taken to solve those pending issues as soon as possible, as the lives of millions depend currently on it.

2. Terminology

Guerilla Warfare: An aspect of irregular warfare that is strategically defensive and tactically aggressive. Guerrilla warfare is strategically defensive because it spawns under a repressive government in defense of the interests of workers/peasants, or forms in the interests of national liberation against an occupying enemy force. It is tactically aggressive because its aim is to overthrow the repressive government or

force the withdrawal of an occupying army. Guerrilla warfare commonly begins spontaneously, but may be used as a means of revolutionary struggle.

Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF): It was established in the 1970s in the Tigray, as a powerful armed liberation movement in Ethiopia, with a goal to overthrow the communist dictatorship. It later became the ethnopolitical party of the Tigray region, as a part of the governing coalition which dominated Ethiopian politics from the 1990s up until 2018. It was overthrown in 2018 and is currently a liberation movement of Tigray that controls a militia army that uses guerilla warfare tactics.

Border Dispute: A disagreement between states regarding where borders should be drawn.

Geneva Conventions: The Geneva Conventions and their Additional Protocols are international treaties that contain the most important rules limiting the barbarity of war. They protect people who do not take part in the fighting (civilians, medics, aid workers) and those who can no longer fight (wounded, sick and shipwrecked troops, prisoners of war).

Ethno-Federalist System: Ethno-federalism is a federal political system in which territorial governance units are explicitly designated as ethnic homelands.

3. Overview

Geography and Government

Tigray is a region of Ethiopia that hosts the regional-ethnic entities of Tigrayan, Irob and Kunama people and has a total population of 7,070,260. It is located in the northernmost region of Ethiopia, bordering Sudan to the west and

Eritrea to the north and its capital is called Mekelle. It is one of the 10 regions of Ethiopia’s ethnic-federalist system. Under this system, every one of the 10 ethnically-split regions of Ethiopia, Tigray included, has its own local government, as well as security forces.

Historical Information

Some years after WW2, a soviet style government was installed in Ethiopia . This regime fell in the 1990s, when the current Federal Government was established. From the first years of the Federal regime, the country was governed by a coalition of most regional parties called the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). The coalition was led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), an organisation/party, very influential behind the toppling of the communist government. Under TPLF leadership, the situation in Ethiopia generally improved in comparison to the previous communist regime, but it was by no means perfect. The TPLF was the undisputed power in the coalition, controlling the government, despite being a party based on the Tigrayan minority. This meant that the Tigray region was heavily favored in investments and the members of the party were able to use their political power for their own interest.In addition to corruption, the TPLF leadership was also thought to promote authoritarianism, as can be observed by the fact that the TPLF was in power for more than 30 years and that many political adversaries and critics of their regime were imprisoned. With such allegations emerging more frequently as the years passed, the discontent of the population reached its peak in 2018, in the form of a series of massive protests across the country. The TPLF was deposed and current prime minister Abiy Ahmed inaugurated in his position. Abiy Ahmed, promised a series of democratic reforms in the country, starting immediately by releasing all political prisoners of the previous government, and most importantly ending the long border-dispute with Eritrea, his actions on the latter winning him the Nobel Peace Prize. The TPLF viewed these moves with suspicion. As the ones bordering Eritrea, they had a historical rivalry with them, supporting their border conflict while they were in power. As such, they were not

happy with the new-found friendship between the federal government and Eritrea. One other reform passed by Abiy Ahmed was to restructure the old government coalition into a single party, the Prosperity party. Along with many, the TPLF saw this move as a weakening of regional power and strengthening of the central government and its prime minister, even declining to join in. Adding to that, many TPLF members were prosecuted for corruption and power abuse, leading to an even larger growth of their distrust for Abiy and his policies. Then the Covid pandemic arrived, forcing the government to announce that the elections of 2020 were to be postponed for an unspecified date in 2021. However, in September the TPLF disregarded this as unconstitutional and carried them out anyway. This escalated the tense situation between the government and Tigray, calling each other illegitimate and leading to the alleged attack on a military base in Tigray and the current situation. During the conflict, access to communications, the economy and journalists to the region were cut off by the Federal government, making information about the conflict limited. Of the few reports that we have as of now, many people were forced to abandon their homes either in fear of an attack or as a result of a direct attack, while the allegations of mass murders and other war crimes, including violations of the Geneva Conventions are many.

Current Situation

Currently, after weeks of fighting, conventional warfare has been halted, with the central government regaining control. However, TPLF leadership has promised to fight on in the form of guerilla warfare, by using its local militia army, a really experienced and effective force in this kind of fighting from their previous involvements in the Eritrean border conflict. In addition, as mentioned before, refugees have fled their homes, into Sudan, where they try to survive under very harsh conditions with a shortage of water, food, shelter and medical provisions, as well as overcrowding. Moreover, the rest of Ethiopia was affected as well. Distrust between the ethnic groups

re-emerged, as some ethnicities fear that the government’s goal is to centralize the state at the expense of the regions’ autonomy, as shown by their recent actions.

Humanitarian Crisis

There is no fully extended verification of the humanitarian crisis in Tigray due to the blackout of telecommunications. However, reports of the humanitarian partners in the area are mentioning their concerns that the low available stocks on food, water and medical supplies are soon to be exhausted and also the incapability of providing shelter and health and protection services, placing nearly two million people in danger of malnutrition, food insecurity and health risks. Moreover,over one million people are displaced by the conflict and they are in need of humanitarian assistance according to the Emergency Preparedness and Response Plan, with the most displaced people fleeing to Sudan or being internally displaced. UNHCR Sudan reports the arrival of over 50,000 asylum seekers from Ethiopia, highlighting the need for the immediate reinstatement of cash transfers and access to fuel and food distributions across Tigray, along with health commodities, particularly in Mekelle, characterizing the looming situation in the refugee camps as dire. Increase of the violence reports with armed assailants referring to minority groups having more than 100 people killed as Amnesty International mentioned in one of their reports.

Continuation of the Conflict

As mentioned before, the TPLF has promised to continue fighting and never surrender,with its leader announcing that they will make Tigray “hell” for the government. Many suspect terrorist attacks are imminent, and unless relations are restored between the government and the TPLF, things could escalate at the point of no return. Also, relations between ethnic groups are worsening in Ethiopia day by day, as the battle between Unionism and regionalism reemerges, with powerful

supporters on either side. Finally, Sudan has moved extra military forces on their border, while in association with Egypt are thinking of intervening in some way to protect their interests, mainly regarding another crucial issue in the Horn, the 'Renaissance’ Dam on the Nile river in Ethiopia.

4. Points to Address during Research

A) Addressing the humanitarian crisis and the alleged human rights violations in the Tigray region ● Which are the measures that need to be taken in order to provide humanitarian aid to the victims of the conflict? ● With guerilla warfare to follow up, how can civilian’s rights be protected, especially regarding women and children? ● How will we respond to violations of the Geneva Conventions?

B) Ensuring the non-proliferation of the Tigray Conflict ● Is it possible to reconcile Tigray and the central government? ● How can we prevent the further escalation of ethnic tensions in Ethiopia? ● How can we prevent the intervention of outside parties in the conflict, aiming at its prolongation? ● How can we avoid terrorist attacks from happening? ● Which possible measures could be taken to ensure the stability of democratic institutions in Ethiopia?

5. References and Further Reading

Interesting Videos or Podcasts:

Al Jazeera | What’s happening in Ethiopia? | Start Here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_GHSCBBGfjo&list=WL&index=52&ab_channel= AlJazeeraEnglish

United Nations | Ethiopia’s Tigray Crisis: Violations of Int'l Humanitarian & Human Rights Law (22 December 2020) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kiyo_HccdkY&list=WL&index=58&ab_channel=U nitedNations

BBC-Global News Podcast | Ethiopia's Tigray crisis: UN 'alarmed' by treatment of Eritrean refugees https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0916xbk

International Crisis Group | The Horn: As Conflicts Mount, Where Does Ethiopia Go from Here?- Podcast https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/horn-conflicts-mount-where-does-ethiop ia-go-here

Caspian Report | Ethiopia lurches towards civil war https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=henqcu4-sqc&list=WL&index=53&ab_channel=Ca spianReport

BBC What’s new | Ethiopia’s Tigray crisis: What's the cause of the conflict? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AH8J_LNQdn4&list=WL&index=60&ab_channel= BBCWhat%E2%80%99sNew%2FActuJeunes

BBC What’s new | Ethiopia's Tigray Crisis: How to end a conflict https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSecc9L9Wyw&list=WL&index=56&ab_channel= BBCWhat%E2%80%99sNew%2FActuJeunes

WION | Tensions intensify between Sudan and Ethiopia https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKk_tWMof7I&list=WL&index=57&ab_channel=W ION

BBC News Africa | Four things you need to know about the Tigray crisis in Ethiopia - BBC Africa

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MuUnoRWu0I&list=WL&index=59&ab_channel= BBCNewsAfrica

DW News | Military offensive in Ethiopia's Tigray conflict sets off humanitarian crisis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jm4vQWZqFBA&list=WL&index=61&ab_channel= DWNews

TLDR News | Ethiopia's Civil War is Expanding: How it's Becoming a Damaging International Dispute https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jB3koEL7GU&ab_channel=TLDRNews

DW News | Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed: From peace laureate to belligerent Warmaker? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svOYN7Rt_fc&ab_channel=DWNews

Wendover Productions | Egypt's Dam Problem: The Geopolitics of the Nile https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BCY0SPOFpE