Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 21St to 30Th June 2021

REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ------

ONACC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 84

Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 21st to 30th June 2021

st 21 June 2021

© NOCC June 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC).

Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG Rene Ramses, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. MEKA ZE Philemon Raissa, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°84 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El- Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 21st to 30th June 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021. This dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021 will be characterized by the action of the Monsoon over the national territory.

II. Forecast Summary

II.1. For Temperatures II.1.1. Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018 and temperatures around the average recorded in the previous dekad. They include: - Mora, Mindif and Kaele in the Far North Region; - Ngaoundal, Yimbere, Tibati, Mbakaou, Banyo and Betare Oya in the Adamawa Region; - Mbalmayo, Bafia, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko in the Centre Region; - Yoka douma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Moloundou, Dimako, Mbalam and Belabo in the East Region; - Nyabisan, Djoum and Zoetele in the South Region; - Makam and Foumbot in the West Region; - Furu Awa, Ako and Audu in the North West Region; - Idenau and Kumba in the South-West Region; - Loum, Yabassi, Manjo, Melong, Douala and Edea in the Littoral Region. NB1: This dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021 will be marked by significant risks of heatwave (number of successive days with temperatures between 35°C and 45°C or between 30°C and 35°C) in many localities in the Far North (Kousseri, Waza and Maga) and North (Guider, Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa, Lagdo, Rey- Bouba, Tchollire, Poli and Touboro) Regions II.1.2. Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: -Gamboura, Mokolo and Mora in the Far-North Region; - Garoua, Rey Bouba, Poli, Guider, Touboro and Tchollire in the North Region; - Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa Region; - Garoua -Boulai in the East Region; - Nguti and Fontem in the South-West Region. NB2: This dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021 will be marked by an increase in the number of days with cold nights in some localities in the West region (Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda and Bafang), North-West region (Nkambe, Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Bamenda and Santa) and Adamawa region (Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga, Banyo, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou) East ( Betare-Oya, Garoua-Boulai, Belabo, Dimako, Batouri, Doume, Mindourou and Lomie) and Centre region (Yoko, Ngambe Tikar, Ngoro and Akonolinga).

II.2. For Precipitation The period from 21st to 30th June 2021 will be marked by a general increase in rainfall amounts over the entire national territory, including in the bimodal rain forest zone, despite the effective onset of the short dry season, with a significant risk of landslides due to waterlogging and floodin g according to the different zones.

st th NB3: This dekad, from 21 to 30 June 2021 corresponds to:

- the effective onset of the short dry season in the bimodal rain forest zone (Centre, South and East Regions), marked however by heavy rainfall in the localities of Yaounde, Mbalmayo, Obala (Centre region), Zoetele, Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Sangmelima (South region), Lomie, Doume, Yokadouma, Abong-Mbang (East region)

- the continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North-West regions), the Monomodal rain forest zone (Littoral and South West

regions) and the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region), marked by heavy rainfall; - the effective onset of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, marked by heavy rainfall in the North region and sporadic rains accompanied by strong winds, hailstones, storms and lightning in the Far-North region. NB4: This dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021 is favourable for the start of the sowing phase in the Sudano-Sahelian zone.

2 III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 21st to 30th June 2021

1) For precipitation

st th For the dekad from 21 to 30 June d) In the Highlands zone 2021, we expect: For this dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021, we expect heavy rainfall in the Highlands zone, marked by: a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone - rainfall amounts above the average recorded from 11th to 20th June 2021 in Koutaba, Foumban, - Sporadic rains and amounts above those Foumbot, Tonga, Makam, Bafoussam, Bafang, Dschang, Batcham, Bazou Mbouda, Bamendjou, th th recorded during the dekad from 11 to 20 Bangangte, Massagam and Bare-Bakem in the West region, with a very high risk of landslides June 2021 in Maroua, Kaele Kousseri, in the hills and flooding in the lowlands; Maga and Bogo, accompanied by strong -rainfall amounts way above the average recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021 winds, storms, hail and lightning, in the

in Nwa, Kumbo, Ndop, Benakuma, Fundong, Nkambe, Bali, Batibo, Widikum, Wum, Far-North Region; Bamenda, Munkep, Santa, Furu Awa, Fungom and Ako, in the North West region with a very

-Rainfall amounts above the average high risk of landslides in the hillsides and flooding in the lowland areas; th th recorded during the dekad from 11 to 20 e) In the Monomodal rain forest zone June 2021 in Guider, Poli, Tchollire, Rey We expect heavy rainfall, marked by: Bouba, Touboro, Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa th th

- rainfall amounts way above the average recorded during the dekad from 11 to 20 June 2021 and Lagdo, accompanied by strong winds in Eyumojock, Mamfe, Mundemba, Nguti, Muyuka, Kumba, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, Idenau, and lightning, in the North Region and Bamusso, Dikome Balue and Fontem, in the South-West Region, with a very high risk of about 20% of the annual rainfall of the landslides in the hillsides and flooding in the low-lying areas and the coastal strip; region. - rainfall amounts way above the average recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021 This situation could lead to flooding in

in Melong, Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Dibombari, Edea, Mbanga, Penja, several areas of the Benue basin, Douala, Mouanko and Dizangue, in the Littoral Region, with a very high risk of landslides in including the Lagdo Dam, intensified by the hillsides and flooding in the low-lying areas and the coastal strip. the water collected in the northern part of the Adamawa region in the Niger Basin. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone - This dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021 will be marked by rainfall amounts above the average recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021 in Yimbere, Tibati, Mbakaou, Ngaoundal, Tignere and Ngaoundere; slightly below in Banyo and Meiganga in the Adamawa region. As an integral part of the Niger Basin, (a) (b) the Adamawa region will contribute to the flooding situations announced in the Benue Basin, through the heavy rains expected in its northern part and whose waters will be drained towards this part of the Benue Basin. c) In the Bimodal rain forest zone - Despite the effective onset of the short dry season, we expect heavy rainfall in the area, notably: - rainfall amounts well above the average recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021 in Mbalmayo, Yaounde, Obala, Nanga-Eboko and Monatele; above the average in Bafia, Eseka, Mbandjock, Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) compared to that Akonolinga , Ngoro, Nkoteng, Yoko and recorded during the period June 11-20, 2021 (a) Source: NOCC, June 2021 Ngambe Tilkar in the Centre region - rainfall amounts above the average NB 5: For the dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021, we expect: recorded from 11th to 20th June 2021 in - The effective onset of the short dry season in the bimodal rain forest zone (Centre, Zoetele, Ebolowa, Sangmelima and South and East regions), however, marked by heavy rainfall in the localities of Ambam; above average in Lolodorf, Yaounde, Mbalmayo, Obala (Centre region), Zoetele, Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Campo and; around the average in Djoum, Sangmelima (South Region), Lomie, Doume, Yokadouma, Abong-Mbang (East Kribi, Akom II and Nyabizan in the South region); region; - a continuity of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North West - rainfall amounts above the average recorded from 11th to 20th June 2021 in regions) and the monomodal rain forest zone (Littoral and South-West Regions), the Lomie, Belabo, Ngoyla and Abong- Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region) marked by heavy rainfall; Mbang; around the average in Bertoua, - the effective start of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, marked by Moloundou, Mindourou, Garoua-Boulai, heavy rainfall in the North Region and sporadic rains accompanied by strong winds, Yokadouma, Batouri and Betare-Oya, in hailstones, storms and lightning in the Far North region the East region

2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bafoussam, Mbouda, Batcham, Based on the historical mean maximum temperatures recorded Foumban, Koutaba, Dschang, Bazou, Bafang, Bangangte and Tonga; above the historical mean in during this dekad over the period from 1979 to 2018, notably Foumbot and Makam, in the West region; 34.34°C in the Far North region; 32.29°C in the North region; - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mundemba, Eyumojock, Bamusso, 29.20°C in the Adamawa region; 28°C in the Centre region; Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Buea, Bakogo, Limbe, Mamfe, Fontem, Nguti and Ekok; above the historical 27.83°C in the South region; 28.55°C in the East region; 24.73°C mean in Idenau and Kumba in the South West region; in the West region; 25.50°C in the North-West region; 26.28°C in - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Loum, Yabassi, Melong, Edea, the South-West region and 25.94°C in the Littoral region, for the Dibombari and Douala; around the historical mean in Mbanga, Nkongsamba, Penja, Dizangue, dekad from 21 to 30 June 2021, we expect maximum Ndokiti III Nkondjock, Manjo, Ndokama, Mouanko, Douala and Baptek in the Littoral region. temperatures: - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Maroua, Kousseri, Yagoua, Maga, Bogo, Waza, Gamboura and Mokolo; below the historical mean in Makary and Mora; above the historical mean in Kaele and Mindif in the Far-North region; - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Guider, Poli, Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Touboro, Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa and Lagdo in the North region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ngaoundal, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou; below the historical mean in Meiganga, Dota, Tignere, Mbe and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in (a) (b) Mbalmayo, Yoko, Bafia, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro; around the historical mean in Eseka, Obala, Yaounde, Ngambe Tikar in the Centre region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Yokadouma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Dimako, Betare-Oya, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Moloundou, Mbalam, Belabo; around the historical mean in Mindourou, Libongo, Mambele and Doume; below the historical mean in Garoua-Boulai in the East region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Djoum, Ambam and Zoetele; around the historical mean in Kribi, Sangmelima, Akom II, Nyabizan, Ebolowa and Lolodorf; below the historical mean in Campo in the South region;

-above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Furu- Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those registered for the Awa, Ako and Audu; around the historical mean in Munkep, Ako, same period from 1979 to 2018; (a) (Source: NOCC, June 2021) Bali, Santa, Ndop, Kumbo, Ndu, Nkambe, Kumbo, Bambalang, Fundong , Benakuma, Nwa, Wum and Esu in the North West region; 4

Based on the difference between the mean maximum temperatures - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021 in Benakuma, recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021, for the dekad Esu, Nwa, Bamenda, Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Ndop, Wum and Audu in the NorthWest from 21st to 30th June 2021, we expect maximum temperatures: region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th June th th - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11 to 20 June 2021 in Bangangte, 2021 in Mindif, Maroua, Yagoua, Kaele, Mora, Maga, Mokolo, Foumbot, Bare-Bakem, Bafoussam, Bamendjing, Dschang, Magba, Bafang, Bazou, Kousseri, Waza, Makary and Bogo in the Far North region; Mbouda, Tonga, Makam and Foumban in the West region. th th - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11 to 20 June 2021 in Garoua, Lagdo, Poli, Touboro, Rey-Bouba, Tchollire, Guider and Touboro; above the mean in Pitoa and Dembo in the North region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021 in Ngaoundal, Mbe, Kognoli, Banyo, Tignere, Mbakaou, Tibati, Ngaoundere, Yimbere, Nassarao, Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021 in Lomie, Abong-Mbang, Dimako, Mindourou, Belabo, Ngoyla, Moloundou, Kongolo, Betare-Oya, Yokadouma, Batouri, Bertoua; below the mean in Garoua-Boulai and Doume in the East region; (a) (b) - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021 in Ngoro, Deuk, Akonolinga, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Mbandjock, Messondo, Nkoteng, Bafia, Mbalmayo, Eseka, Obala, Ngambe Tikar and Yaounde in the Centre region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021 in Zoetele, Djoum, Nyabizan, Minkoumou, Campo, Ebolowa, Lolodorf, and Ambam; above the mean in Kribi, Akom II and Sangmelima, in the South region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021 in Bamusso, Ekok, Eyumojock, Mamfe, Limbe, Idenau, Tiko, Nguti, Ekang, Dikome Balue, Fontem and Buea; below the mean in Mundemba and Kumba in the South West region; th th - around the mean recorded from 11 to 20 June 2021 in Loum, st th Figure 3: Variation in average maximum temperatures for the dekad from 21 to 30 June 2021 (b) compared Mouanko, Yabassi, Mbanga and Manjo, Melong, Nkongsamba, to those recorded for the dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021 (a). Pouma, Ngambe, Yingui, Ndom, Dizangue, Douala, Nyanon and Source: NOCC, June 2021 Edea; below the mean in Ndokama and Baptek in the Littoral region; 5

Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in maximum temperatures compared to their historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Mora, Mindif and Kaele in the Far-North region;

- Ngaoundal, Yimbere, Tibati, Mbakaou, Banyo and Betare Oya in the Adamawa region;

- Mbalmayo, Bafia, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko, in the Centre region; - Yokadouma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Moloundou, Dimako, Mbalam and Belabo in the East region; - Nyabizan, Djoum and Zoetele in the South region; - Makam and Foumbot in the West region;

- Furu Awa, Ako and Audu in the North West region; - Idenau and Kumba in the South West region; - Loum, Yabassi, Manjo, Melong, Douala and Edea in the Littoral region.

b) For Minimum Temperatures - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Furu Awa, Ako and Audu; around Based on the historical mean minimum temperatures recorded the historical mean in Wum, Nwa, Munkep, Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Bamenda, Ndop and from 1979 to 2018, notably 24.3°C in the Far North region; Benakuma in the North West region; 23.3°C in the North region; 20.3°C in the Adamawa region; 19°C - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Dikome Balue, Bamusso, Bakogo, in the Centre region; 20.7°C in the South region; 19.5°C in the Mundemba, Nguti, Dikome Bafaw, Mamfe, Ekang and Eyumojock; above the historical mean in East region; 16.5°C in the West region; 16.5°C in the North West Idenau, Tiko, Limbe, Buea and Kumba in the South West region; region; 20.6°C in the South West region and 20.2°C in the Littoral - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Douala, Edea, st th region, for the dekad from 21 to 30 June 2021, we expect Mouanko and Baptek; around the historical mean in Ndokama, Mbanga, Yabassi, Dizangue, minimum temperatures: Manjo, Penja, Nkongsamba and Loum in the Littoral region. - below the historical mean recorded during the same period from

1979 to 2018 in Gamboura, Mokolo and Mora; around the historical Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version). mean in Waza, Makary, Kousseri, Maroua, Kaele, Maga, Mindif and Yagoua in the Far-North region; - around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Pitoa, Dembo and Lagdo; below the historical mean in Garoua, Rey Bouba, Poli, Guider, Touboro and Tchollire, in the North region; - below the historical mean recorded during this period from 1979 to 2018 in Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga; above the historical mean in Ngaoundal, Tibati, Yimbere, Banyo and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region; - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from (a) 1979 to 2018 in Monatele, Ayos, Eseka, Yoko, Nkoteng, Bafia, (b) Mbalmayo, Ngambe Tikar, Obala, Akonolinga and Yaounde, in the Centre Region - around the historical mean recorded during this period from 1979 to 2018 in Mindourou, Abong-Mbang, Bertoua, Belabo, Lomie, Batouri, Moloundou and Betare Oya; above the historical mean in Ngoyla and Kozo; below the mean in Garoua-Boulai, in the East region; - above the historical mean recorded for the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Kribi, Campo, Zoetele, Minkoumou, Ebolowa and Akom II; below the historical mean in Lolodorf and Djoum; around the historical mean in Nyabizan and Ambam in the South region; - around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Dschang, Bafoussam, Bafang, Mbouda, Bamendjing, Tonga, Bangangte; above the historical mean in Figure 4: Variation in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (21-30 June 2021) (b) compared to historical averages from 1979 to 2018 (a). Source: NOCC, June 2021 Foumban, Makam and Foumbot; below the historical mean in Bazou, in the West Region

Based on the difference between the mean minimum - around the mean recorded from 11th to 20th June 2021 in Bakogo, Dikombe Bafaw, Ekok, th th temperatures recorded during the dekad from 11 to 20 Ekang Tiko, Muyuka, Idenau, Bamusso, Mundemba, Mamfe, Buea and Kumba; below the st th June 2021, for the dekad from 21 to 30 June 2021, we mean in Fontem and Nguti in the South-West region. expect minimum temperatures: -around the mean recorded from 11th to 20th June 2021 in Mindif, Yagoua, Makary, Kaele, Maga, Kousseri, Maroua and Waza; below the mean in Mora, Bogo and Mokolo in the Far North region - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021 in Tchollire, Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa and Lagdo; below the mean in Rey Bouba, Poli, Guider and Touboro in the North region - around the mean recorded from 11th to 20th June 2021 in Dota, Ngaou Mbol, Mbakaou, Banyo, Tibati, Tignere and Banyo; above the mean in Meiganga and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa region -below the mean recorded from 11th to 20th June 2021 in Ngambe Tikar, Yaounde, Nanga Eboko, Mbandjock, Ngoro, Akonolinga, Eseka, Monatele, Yoko, Bafia, Obala, Mbalmayo and Nkoteng in the Centre region; (a) - around the mean recorded during the period from 11th to 20th June (b) 2021 in Moloundou, Garoua-Boulai, Abong-Mbang, Betare and Oya, Ngoyla; below the mean in Bertoua, Lomie, Yokadouma, Doume, Mindourou, Belabo and Batouri in the East region - around the mean recorded from 11th to 20th June 2021 in Ebolowa, Ambam, Campo, Kribi and Akom II; below the mean in Sangmelima, Zoetele, Djoum and Lolodorf in the South region - around the mean recorded from 11th to 20th June 2021 in Dschang, Bazou, Bangangte, Bamendjing, Magba, Bafoussam, Bafang, Makam Mbouda, Tonga, Foumban and Foumbot in the West region - around the mean recorded from 11th to 20th June 2021 in Fundong, Kumbo, Santa, Ndop, Bamenda, Benakuma, Nwa, Munkep, Ako, Furu Awa, Wum, Nwa and Audu in the North-West region - around the mean recorded from 11th to 20th June 2021 in Penja, Ndokama, Edea, Dizangue, Loum, Melong, Manjo, Nkongsamba, Yabassi, Mouanko; below the mean in Ed ea, Douala and Baptek in Figure 4: Variations in minimum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those recorded in the dekad th th the Littoral region; from 11 to 20 June 2021 (a). Source: NOCC, June 2021

Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021, particular attention should be paid to the localities that have a very high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to its historical values for the same period from

1979 to 2018, which could lead to cold nights. They include: -Gamboura, Mokolo and Mora in the Far North region;

- Garoua, Rey Bouba, Poli, Guider, Touboro and Tchollire in the North region; - Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga, in the Adamawa region; - Garoua-Boulai, in the East region; - Nguti and Fontem, in the South West region.

IV. Risks and potential impacts on socio-economic sectors

a) In the agricultural sector: d) In the water and energy sector:

A high risk of recording cases of: A high risk of: - falling of electricity transportation poles due to heavy rains accompanied by strong -destruction of plantations in many localities in the Centre, East, South, South- West and Littoral Regions, due to heavy rains accompanied by strong winds. winds in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, Guinean high savannah zone, the bimodal rain NB 6: This dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021 is favourable for the continuation of the forest zone, the monomodal rain forest zone and the highlands zone; sowing phase in the North Region and the southern part of the Far North region. -contamination of soil water, surface water and water catchment points by polluted runoffs in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, bimodal rain forest zone, the

monomodal rain forest zone, the Guinean high savannah zone and the Highlands b) In the health sector: zone. A risk of recording cases of: -wate r-borne diseases (typhoid, yeast, amoebiasis, dysentery, etc.), due to the poor e) In the environment and biodiversity sector: quality of drinking water, in the five agro-ecological zones; A high risk of recording numerous cases of:

-cholera in some settlements of the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Maroua, Mokolo, Maga, - morning fog leading to traffic accidents in many localities in the Centre, South Mora, Garoua, Pitoa, etc.), the Bimodal Rainforest zone and the Guinean High and East Regions (bimodal rain forest zone), West and north-west (Highlands Savannah zone, due to the contamination of drinking water by polluted run-off zone) and South-West (monomodal rain forest zone); water. - flooding in some localities (Garoua, Pitoa, Lagdo etc.) within the Benue basin, North -respiratory diseases (flu epidemic, coughs, bronchitis, colds, asthma attacks, etc.), Region, due to heavy rains coupled with rainwater drained from the northern part of in the Monomodal Rainforest Zone, the Bimodal Rainforest Zone, and the the Adamawa region; Highlands Zone, due to cold and humidity; - floods in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Maroua, Garoua, Pitoa, Mokolo etc.), the -general pathologies (hypertension, diabetes) as well as people suffering from Bimodal Rain Forest zone, the Monomodal Rain Forest zone (Douala, Nkongsamba etc.) and in some localities to the southern and eastern part of obesity and women in menopause as a result of the night heat, in some localities of the five Agro ecological zones Ngaoundere; - landslides in some localities in the North West and West regions (Highlands -multiplication of malaria-causing mosquitoes in the five agro-ecological zones. Zone), the Littoral and South West, due to waterlogging from rain recorded from the c) For the livestock sector beginning of the rainy season, as well as in the Adamawa and East artisanal mineral exploitation sites. A high risk of recording;

• numerous cases of epizootics due to the cold weather during the night in some f) In the public works sector: localities of the West Region (Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda and Bafang), A risk of recording cases of: North-West Region (Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Bamenda and Santa); - degradation of roads in the five agro-ecological zones, due to heavy rainfall; • cases of loss of livestock by lightning due to stormy rains accompanied by - destruction of bridges and other crossing structures in some localities of the heavy thunder in the Guinean high savannah zone. Highlands zone, the Monomodal Rain Forest zone, the Guinean High Savannah

. cases of loss of livestock through drowning in some localities in the Sudano- zone and the Sudano-Sahelian zone due to heavy and strong rainfall. Sahelian zone

10 th th VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the dekad from 11 to 20 June 2021

High Guinean Agro Ecological zones Sudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rain forest High plateau Mono-modal Rain Forest Savannah Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West North West South West Littoral Minimum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 24,3 23,3 20,3 19,5 19 20,7 16,5 16,5 20,6 20,2

Trend forecasts Success rates of Forecasts (%) 80,5 87 87,9 84,1 84,1 81,6 84,2 85 80,6 85 Maximum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 35,33 33,08 29,62 28,65 28 28,14 24,78 25,50 26,54 26,29 Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ Forecasts success rates (%) 85 78,2 85 83 80,5 85 87,9 83 82 81,6 Precipitation Historic mean from 1979 to 0-60 61-81 82-101 102-121 122-200 201-210 211-240 241-260 261-300 301-350 2018(mm) Trend forecasts ≈ ≈

Forecasts success rates (%) 100 100 98 100 100 100 98,6 100 100 100

Around the mean ≈ ; = Reduction; = Increase

VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to:

In the Agriculture sector: ▪ plan agricultural activities, notably the sowing phase in the Guinean High Savannah Zone, and maintenance in the south regions of the country with reference to the agricultural calendar produced by NOCC for the 2021 Agricultural season.

In the health sector, continue to ▪ raise public awareness on the need to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (washing food items, filtering drinking water and cooking food before consumption in households, use of latrines, etc.); ▪ avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings; ▪ dress warmly to protect yourself from cold; ▪ encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; ▪ strengthen community health surveillance to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of diseases (cholera) in order to take care of them. ▪ continue vaccination campaigns against various epidemics and pandemics.

In the water and energy sector, to continue: ▪ regular sampling, analysis and treatment of drinking water at catchment points and water supply points before distribution to households; ▪ regular use of basic techniques (filtering, boiling, etc.) to make drinking water potable at household level; ▪ the replacement of defective (wooden) electricity transportation poles.

For more information, contact, www.onacc.cm P.O. Box: 35414 Building no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237) 222-209-504/222-209-500 12 e-mail: [email protected]