Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Population Characteristics in Kolhapur District

Abstract of Ph.D. Thesis entitled SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS IN KOLHAPUR DISTRICT

A THESIS SUBMITTED TO SOLAPUR UNIVERSITY, SOLAPUR

FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY In

GEOGRAPHY UNDER THE FACULTY OF SCIENCE

By Mr. NAVNATH KEDARI BANSODE M.A., B.Ed, NET.

UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF DR. ARJUN H. NANAWARE M.A. (Geog.), M.A. (Hist.), B.Ed, Ph.D. DEPT. OF GEOGRAPHY & RESEARCH CENTER, SHRI. SHIVAJI MAHAVIDYALAYA, BARSHI. DIST. SOLAPUR

JANUARY, 2017

“SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS IN KOLHAPUR DISTRICT”

INTRODUCTION Traditionally, Geography has been concerned with man-environment relationship. The subject geography involves wide range of knowledge therefore Geography is divided into two main branches i.e. Physical Geography and Human Geography. Human geography is related to man and his activities on the earth surface. Population Geography is one of the modern Branch of Human Geography. DEFINITIONS OF POPULATION GEOGRAPHY

According to Merriam Webster‟s collegiate dictionary (2004) populations means the whole number of people or inhabitants in a country or region. According to John I. Clarke (1965), Geography of population was concerned with “demonstrating how spatial variations in distribution, composition, migration and growth are related to the spatial variation in the nature of places. Population Geography may be defined as the analysis and geographic interpretation of spatial variation of the structure and value of demographic phenomena. These phenomena analyze the size and changes of population growth and distribution (Garnier, 1978). SIGNIFICANCE OF PROBLEM

The study of population characteristics is very important from the view point of socio- economic development and human well being.

„Population Growth‟ is the most fundamental demographic process with which all other demographic attributes are directly or indirectly associated with it. It determines density, distribution pattern and composition of population and is influenced by economic factors, such as standard of living and per capita income (Ghosh 1985). Therefore, an understanding of the process of population change is essential in geographical studies.

The uneven distribution of population is a significant factor influencing various aspects of human life. It is, therefore, essential to study distribution of population since it influences the future plans for development, political moves and rate of

2 development (Chandna, 2009). Population density is the most fundamental demographic process with which all other demographic attributes are directly or indirectly associated (Ghosh 1985). Density of population helps us in understanding nature of population distribution. Study of density of population is important from the view point of population pressure on the resources and related issues. While introducing new transporting network, it is essential to know density of population of a region (Sawant, Athavale 1994).

Sex ratio is fundamental demographic characteristics of the geographic analysis of an area, because it is important feature of landscape, and it also influences on the other demographic elements. It has profound effect on the demographic structure of a region (Trewartha, 1953). The balance between the sexes is an important aspect of population structure. It affects birth rate, death rate, marital status, labor supply and employment.

The study of literacy is essential for eradicating poverty and mental isolation for cultivating peaceful and friendly international relations and for permitting the free play of demographic processes. The illiteracy takes away from man his dignity, perpetuates ignorance, and hampers social advancement, economic growth and political maturity (Chandna, 2009). Literacy and education are the key factors for the rapid development of a country.

Migration keeps a balance between the distributions of population and the supply of natural resources. It increases the mobility. It is the fundamental process to change the structure of population and it contributes a lot for the understanding of the space-content and space-relation of a particular geographical area (Gosal, 1961). A movement of people as an instrument of cultural diffusion and social integration those results into more meaningful distribution of population.

The development of any region or country and international status of any country depend on the development of human resources. Considering importance of population characteristics attempt is made to study of population characteristics in Kolhapur district.

CHOICE OF REGION

The choice of region under investigation is influenced by following considerations.

1. Researcher is well familiar to the study region, as Kolhapur district is post field of researcher. 2. The Eastern part of the district is more favorable for population concentration than the Western part due to variation in physical determinants. 3. The river basins of the Krishna, Warna, Panchaganga, Dudhaganga, Vedaganga and Hiranyakeshi drain this district which have high concentration of population due to availability of water and fertile lands. 4. The study region has variation in physical factors in Western and Eastern parts which acts as push and pulls factors of migration. 5. The Kolhapur district is also renowned district for sugar industry, hill station, religious places and educational institutes which resulted in to seasonal as well as permanent migration. 6. The study region has problem of sex ratio, literacy and migration of population, which seems to be the challenges for researcher and planners. 7. Study region exists inter-regional disparity of population characteristics. The Western Ghat region have low density, low population growth, high sex ratio and high degree of out-migration, whereas, the central and Eastern plain river basin region has high density, high growth rate of population, low sex ratio, high degree of in-migration. 8. Population Geography in view of population characteristics and human resources development of this region has not been studied yet by geographers. In the view of this consideration, attempt is made to analyze the spatio- temporal analysis of population Characteristics in the study region from a geographic point of view.

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The main objectives of the present study are as follows:

1. To study the physical setting of study region as a base of population characteristics. 2. To examine growth of population in terms of time and space. 3. To analyze spatial distribution of population in Kolhapur district. 4. To examine impact of irrigated area on density of population in Kolhapur District and to estimate rate of change in density in relation to irrigated area. 5. To study spatio-temporal pattern of literacy and sex ratio in the study region. 6. To study the birth rate, death rate and migration pattern in the study region and to assess impact of irrigation of in-migration. 7. To analyze human resource development in study region. HYPOTHESIS

1. Higher is the irrigated area the more is the density of population. 2. Higher is the literacy of population less is the dependency ratio. 3. There is positive correlation in between irrigated area and in-migration.

SOURCE OF DATA AND INFORMATION Population Characteristics of any region cannot be justified for a shorter period of time. So the present research work covers the period of 1961 to 2011. In order to meet objectives of the relevant information and data collected through both primary and secondary data sources.

I) Primary Sources

Secondary data is not enough for the micro level analysis therefore, primary data is collected. The primary data is the first hand data collected from different sources for which special schedule is prepared in four part. For the primary data collection 34 villages are selected out of 1195 villages by stratified random sampling method on the basis of physiography and field survey has been made to collect the data regarding population characteristics and indicators of human recourse development.

II) Secondary Sources

The secondary data about population characteristics in the region is collected from the District Census Handbook of Kolhapur District from 1961 to 2011, Primary census Abstract of Maharashtra state, Socio-Economic review of Kolhapur District, District Statistical Abstract of Kolhapur District, Economic Survey of Maharashtra, District Gazetteers of Kolhapur District, Periodicals and Internet sources. The data regarding temperature-rainfall from 1980 to 2015 is collected from statistical bulletin of Kolhapur district and Socio-Economic review of Kolhapur District. The information related to drainage system and physiography in study area is collected from District Gazetteers of Kolhapur District, District Census Handbook of Kolhapur District, Socio-Economic review and Google earth. The data related to fertility of soil and types of soil is obtained from soil survey and soil testing laboratory, Kolhapur. The information related to major and minor irrigation project and irrigated area is collected from Commissioner of Agriculture Pune and Socio-Economic review of Kolhapur District. The data regarding land use is collected from Socio-Economic review of Kolhapur District. The necessary information about transportation and transport network is collected from PWD and Z.P. Kolhapur. The data of different indicators of human resource development is collected from office of the education Z.P. Kolhapur, Joint director Kolhapur division, district office of vocational and technical education Kolhapur. The data related to fertility and mortality is collected from annual vital statistics report of Maharashtra state, directorate of health services, government of Maharashtra. The information related to population below poverty line is collected from director, district rural development office, Kolhapur.

METHODOLOGY

Following various quantitative techniques have been used to analyze the data. r = Pn- P0 ÷ P0 × 100 formula is used to calculate decadal growth of population. Population Concentration Index (PCI) is calculated with the help of following equation, PCI= Actual population of the Tahsil ÷ Average population of the district. Literacy rate calculated as Literacy Rate = Total Literate population above 7 year ÷ Total population × 100.

To measure the male-female disparity in literacy, Sopher‟s Disparity Index (1974) modified by Kundu and Rao (1983) has been employed: GDI = log (X2 / X1) + log (200 –X1) / (200 – X2). To determine in and out-migration the Rees (1977) technique is used

1. In-migration = (P2-P1) > (B-D)

2. Out-migration = (P2-P1) < (B-D) Intensity index of in-migration and out-migration is calculate by III = (A-N) ÷ T × 100, IIO = (N-A) ÷ T × 100 To examine impact of irrigation on density of population the Karl Pearson’s Coefficient of Correlation technique is used. The degree of relationship by considering percentage of irrigated area as an independent variable „X‟ and density of population as dependent variable „Y‟ is measured. The functional form of linear relationship is measured by using regression equation i.e. y = a + bx. The rate of change in dependent variable is estimated with the help of „b‟ coefficient, which is the line of best fit. „T‟ test is used with the view to understand confidence level. To calculate composite index of human resource development the “Proportional Standardized Mean" technique (Shrivastava S.L, 1983), is employed the weight assigned to one indicator is measured by following formula.

W = X ÷  Where,

W = Weight of one particular indicator X = The average of the series of one particular indicator.

= The standard deviation of same series. The composite Index of Development by using the following formula. x x x x x 1  x 2  x 3  x 4 ...... 1  2  3  4  C.I.  1 2 3 4 x x x x 1  2  3  4 ......     1 2 3 4 OR

x1w1  x2w2  x3w3...... C.I.  w1  w2  w3......

Depending upon the composite Index the indices have also been calculated by taking whole region as 100 (for average composite Index) by following formula. Composite Index of any unit Indices = x 100 Average of composite Index

LIMITATIONS

1. There are some limitations regarding the data of fertility, mortality and migration for the period of fifty years span i.e. 1961 to 2011. The data of such characteristics for the census year of 1961 is not available therefore these characteristics are analyzed from 1971 to 2011. 2. Tahsil wise data of some indicators i.e. life expectancy, per capita income, Dependency ratio, expenditure on education and expenditure on health is not available in any publication therefore, researcher has complied tahsil level data of such aspects on the basis of field survey. 3. The Ajra urban center is formed in 2001 hence there is no urban population in the Ajra tahsil before 2001, therefore it is not impossible to calculate and analyze change in urban population of Ajra tahsil. 4. The Kolhapur district consists of 1195 villages, so it is highly impossible to take sample as per mathematical formula i.e. about 30 percent villages and to make field survey considering time limit therefore only 34 villages are selected by stratified random sampling method for the micro level study. OUTLINE OF RESEARCH WORK

The present research work has been organized into nine chapters. The first chapter deals with the introduction, meaning and definition of population geography, concept of population characteristics, significance of problem, choice of region, review of literature, objectives, hypothesis, source of data and methodology, limitations. Second chapter deals with the introduction, location and extent, brief history of the district, physiography, geology, drainage, climate, soil, forest resources, irrigation, land use, industry, transportation network, fisheries, dairy farming and mining.

Third chapter includes introduction of population growth, population growth at the district level, spatio-temporal pattern of absolute growth of population, spatio- temporal pattern of growth rate of total, rural, urban, male and female population and change in growth rate population in between 1961 and 2011. The fourth chapter attempts to analyse of population distribution and concentration, population density at district level, spatio-temporal pattern of crude, agricultural and physiological density, the population concentration index, population space relationship and impact of irrigated area on density of population.

Fifth chapter deals with the introduction, importance of literacy, literacy rate at district level, spatio-temporal pattern of general, rural, urban literacy rate, introduction and concept of sex ratio, sex ratio at district level, spatio-temporal pattern of general, rural, urban sex ratio. The Chapter six is devoted to components of population change i.e. fertility, mortality and migration of population, identification of out and in migration and determination of intensity index of In and out migration.

The Seven Chapter comprises introduction, indicator of human resource development at tahsil level, composite index of human resource development in Kolhapur district and impact of literacy on dependency ratio.

In the Eight chapter there is case study of selected villages including physical determinants of population, growth, density, literacy, sex ratio, birth rate, death rate migration, analyses indicators of human resource development such as life expectancy, per capita income, female population, student teacher ratio, net primary enrolment, net secondary enrolment, enrolment in technical and vocational education, gross enrolment of Female in primary school, population above poverty line, expenditure on education, access to population sanitation, per capita expenditure on health, dependency ratio percentage of Irrigated area to net sown area, impact of literacy on dependency ratio and impact of irrigated area on in-migration. Ninth chapter is related to conclusion and suggestions for future human resource development in Kolhapur districts.

CONCLUSIONS

The study of population seeks to identify, classify, describe and analyze the problems of population characteristics. It is also concerned with analysis of regional variation in growth and distribution of population, population composition, birth rate, death rate, migration and human resource development. From the present investigation following conclusions arrived. 1. The physical landscape of the district is marked by hill ranges, Plateau and plains, which have close association with population distribution. The Western hilly topography presents the low density of population. The district comprises two plateau region i.e. Kolhapur plateau and Gadhinglaj plateau. Both these plateau regions are favourable for human habitant and modularly populated. The Central Eastern part of the Kolhapur district is covered by plain region. The rivers in this plain area have developed the flood plains with thick layer of alluvium soil, which is very retentive in moisture and fertile. This plain area is most favorable for population concentrations.

2. The Panchganga, Dudhganga, Vedganga Krishna, Warna, Hirnaykeshi and Ghatprabha basins have comparatively very high concentration of population as compared to other areas. Climate determines the spatial distribution of population in Kolhapur district. The extreme Western part receives heavy rainfall and therefore, this region has very low concentration of population. The central parts of the district have favourable rainfall and hence the intensity of population concentration is high. Considering temperature the Western part of the district is cooler than the Eastern parts, which adversely affects on population concentration. The area under study has medium to deep black alluvial soils in the Central and North Eastern river plain zone, concentrating very high population. Laterite, Raddish-Brown soils of the Western part with which act adversely on population resulted into sparsely populated.

3. The high irrigated area in Shirol and Karvir tahsils represents high density of population. Overall development of a region and concentration of population go hand in hand. The high percentage of industries in Karvir and Hatkanangale tahsils is mainly due to presence of railway link, better road links, better infrastructure, location and raw material leads to in-migration and human resource development.

4. While studying the population growth of Kolhapur district, it is evident that the population was decreased in the first decades of 20th century. After 1921 census the

10 population of Kolhapur district started increasing. Thus, the year 1921 is designated as “The Great Divide” in the sense that it is the turning point which marks the beginning of regular growth and also the beginning of a rapid and massive population increase. Evidently, the total population has become more than double in a period of 40 years that is from 1921 to 1961. It indicates that mortality has been declined considerably due to the development in medical facility and communication.

5. Certainly the population change at the district level i.e. Kolhapur district coincides with that of Maharashtra state and India. This pattern owes to a decline in mortality and struggling reduction in fertility. During last fifty years the population of the study area increased in absolute numbers but the variation rate exhibited declining trend from 1961-71 to 2001-2011 as it is the result of Five Year Plans, improvement in medical facilities to control diseases and epidemics, implementation of Family Welfare Programmes to control birth rate, availability of educational facilities, improving literacy rate especially among women. The rate of change in rural population also decreased from 1971, because of check in the birth rate by improved medical facilities and implementation of family welfare programmes.

6. The spatial patterns of total population change at tahsil level in the study area are the manifestation of spatial dimensions of socio-economic conditions. The high positive change in population in the tahsils of the Central Eastern part of the study area is mainly due to the fertile soils of Panchganga, Warna and Krishna rivers and high degree of urbanization with industrial development. The low positive change in population in the extreme Western tahsils of the district is a result of undulating terrain, higher rainfall, less development of industries, lack of transport and communication facilities. The high growth of urban population in Karvir tahsil is mainly due to district headquarter, developed industry and educational institutes resulted into in-migration. The high absolute growth of rural population and high positive change in rural population in Hatkanangale tahsil is result of development of irrigation facilities. The very low growth rate of total population in Bhudhargad and Chandgad tahsils is mainly due to the rugged topography resulted into lower development of irrigation facility and agro-based industries.

7. The high growth rate of male as well as female population in Hatkanangale and Karvir tahsils is because of combine effect of well development of agro-based

11 industries such as sugar factory, cotton industry, handloom industry, industrial park, which resulted into availability of job opportunities in various tertiary and quaternary economic activities. The negative change in total population as well as rural population in Bavda tahsil during the period of investigation is result of due to undulating topography, thick forest cover, high rainfall, poor development of irrigation facilities, and change in administrative boundary of the tahsil i.e. 54 villages from this tahsil are included in to the Vaibhavadi tahsil of Sindhudurg district. During the span of 50 years, the high growth rate of urban population in Hatkanangale tahsil is a result of development of handloom industry which lead to urbanization and in-migration. The growth rate of population decreased in all most all the tahsils, except Bavda is the result of socio-economic development of the district, which was initiated before independence by great king Late Shri. Chh. Shahu Maharaj and took sustainable shape after 1990s furthermore increase literacy, increase in medical facilities and change in attitude of the people.

8. The study region has increasing trends of population density during 1901- 2011except 1911-21 decade. The study reveals that during decades of 1911 to 1921, the negative change is recorded in population density due to influenza epidemics, plaque, cholera, fever, bowel complaints, weak monsoon and monsoon failures. The very high crude density and very high positive change in crude density in Karvir tahsil during the period investigation is a result of location of district headquarter in this tahsil which leads to concentration of government offices furthermore development of irrigation leads to agriculture development resulted into development of agro based industries. The high crude density of population in Hatkanangale tahsil in 2011 is because of Ichalkaranji a famous cotton textile centre located in this tahsil, where 5000 textile factory and 120000 power looms established. The low crude density in Shahuwadi, Panhala, Bavda, Radhanagari, Kagal, Bhudargad, Ajra, Gadhinglaj and Chandgad tahsils in 2011 is a result of heavy rainfall dense forest, undulating topography which become barrier in development of irrigation and transportation facilities.

9. The high rural crude density and high positive change in crude density in Central Eastern part comprises Hatkanangale Shirol and Karvir tahsils is mainly due to the black fertile soil in river basin and developed irrigation facilities which resulted into agricultural development. The high crude density of urban population and very high

12 positive change in urban population in Karvir tahsils is mainly due to the advantages of location of district headquarter in it, further more development of cotton textile and agricultural equipments industry, development of educational institutes, Gokul Dairy and so many co-operative dairy societies. The very high and high agricultural density in Shirol and Hatkanangale tahsil respectively is a result of fertile soils and availability of water in Krishna river basin and its tributaries. While very low agricultural density in Ajra tahisl is a result of rugged topography, inferior soil and dense forest.

10. The very high and high concentration of population and high man land ratio in Karvir and Hatkanangale tahsils respectively is a result of the fertile soil, development of irrigation facilities, education and small and large scale industry. While the low concentration of population in Shahuwadi, Panhala, Bavda, Radhanagari, Kagal, Bhudhargad, Ajra Gadhinglaj, and Chandgad tahsils is mainly due to the undulating topography of Sahyadri Mountain, heavy rainfall and dense forest as compare to the other tahsil.

11. The high positive correlation (r = +0.83004) between the irrigated area (X) and density of population (Y) has been observed in the tahsils of Kolhapur district. The coefficient of determination (r2) is found to be at 0.689, which reveals that the independent variable (X) i.e., the irrigated area is explaining 68.9 percent of the total variations in dependent variable (Y) i.e. density of population in the tahsils of Kolhapur district. The regression coefficient indicates that increase of one hectare irrigated area causes for an increase of density of population by 0.054 per square kilometer. The confidence interval of the predicted values indicates that the 91.66 per cent of the total number of observation (n is 12) the regression is a good indicator meaning thereby that the variations of density of population in tahsils of Kolhapur district is the function of the variations in irrigated area.

12. The literacy rate of study region is comparatively lower than the state level except only 2001 census year. The percentage of literacy has increased rapidly after 1974 mainly due to the introduction of scheme of compulsory education and the National Literacy Mission which was launched on May 5th, 1988. The very low literacy rate in Bavda and Shahuwadi tahsils is mainly due to the adverse physiography and inferior soil resulted into absence of major industry, poor

13 education and infrastructure facility. The high general female literacy rate in Karvir, Shirol and Hatkanangale tahsils is a result of more urbanization, better occupation structure and large number of education institutions. While very low female literacy rate in Bavda and Chandgad tahsils is due to the hilly area, rural background, traditional job such as agricultural laborers, low status of women, poor education facility.

13. The very high gender disparity in general literacy rate in Chandgad tahsil is mainly due to the hilly area of western Ghat, poor agricultural practices, traditional society and low educational development. The low positive change in rural literacy rate in Bhudargad, Ajra and Gadhinglaj tahsils is because of these tahsil situated hilly ranges which resulted into lack of industrialization and low education institutes, infrastructural facilities and lower parent‟s income. The very high rural male as well as female literacy in Hatkananagale and Shirol tahsil is mainly due to the better agricultural practices, developed agro-based industries availability of high number of education institute, and implementation of varies government policies, social awareness and awareness about government schemes. The very high gender disparity in rural literacy in Bavda and Radhanagari tahsils is a result of hilly area with forest, low educational facilities and less economic development. The study reveals that gender disparity in urban literacy is decreased in all most all tahsils with increasing awareness and government schemes.

14. The study of sex ratio reveals that district as a whole has negative trend during the period of investigation. The very high general as well as rural sex ratio in Ajra tahsil is a result of the hilly area of Western Ghat, which leads to poor agriculture, absence of industry and inaccessibility resulted into lower job opportunities hence leads to out -migration. Considering change in sex ratio only three tahsils namely Gadhinglaj, Karvir and Hatkanangale recorded positive change i.e. low to high in Gadhinglaj and very low to low for Karvir and Hatkanangale which indicates growing awareness among people those lives in developed tahsils as compare to other tahsils. The very low rural sex ratio in Karvir and Panhala tahsils is mainly due to the high urbanization and in-migration.

15. The low crude birth rate in Bhudargad, Ajra, Chandgad, Kagal, Bavda, Radhanagari and Shahuwadi tahsil is result of awareness about family planning in society which supported adverse geographical condition i.e. undulating topography, dense forest and heavy rainfall. The high decrease in crude birth rate in Bhudargad, Bavda, Ajra, Radhanagari and Kagal tahsil is mainly due to the improvement of medical facilities, increase age at marriage, increase education facilities and implementation family welfare policies of the government. The high decrease in crude death rate in Radhanagari, Bavda and Kagal tahsils is a result of eradication of epidemics like malaria, plague are controlled through medicines, adoption of public health programmes, spread of education and increase in status of women.

16. The study area as whole has in-migration mainly due to the pull factors such as favourable rainfall, abundance of water resources and fertile soil resulted into development of agro-based industries such as cotton, sugar, dairy industry, this made an overall socio-economic development of the study area. The high in- migration flow of the population in Hatkanangale tahsil is a result of development of cotton textile and power loom industry. The highest out migration in Gadhinglaj followed by Ajra and Bhudargad tahsils is result of push factors i.e. hilly area, heavy rainfall, high forest area, absence of major industry, poor transport and irrigation facilities. The high intensity of in-migration in Bavda, Kagal and Panhala tahsils during 2001-2011 is result of agricultural and industrial development.

17. The High life expectancy and high expenditure on education as well as on health in Shirol, Hatkanangale and Karvir, tahsils is a result of favorable physical factors leads to high per capita income. The high per capita income in Hatkanangale, Karvir and Shirol tahsils is mainly due to the development of agro-based industries such as sugar, cotton, Dairy and irrigation facilities. The high percentage of female population in Ajra and Gadhinglal tahsils is mainly due to the out-migration of male population for employment. The low secondary school enrolment and low enrolment in technical education in Ajra and Chandgad tahsils is a result of low economic status of parents due to the adverse physical and economic factors. The low population above poverty line in Hatkanangale tahsil

is because of maximum schedule cast population. The high maternal mortality rate in Bavda tahsil is a result of lack of health facilities because of rugged topography. The high dependency ratio in Shahuwadi, Bhudargad, Bavda, Chandgad, Kagal, Radhanagari, Ajra and Gadhinglaj tahsils is result of combine effect of undulating topography, high area under forest, heavy rainfall, inferior soil, low literacy and low economic development.

18. The high human resource development in Hatkanangale, Karvir and Shirol tahsils is mainly due to the fertile soil, surface irrigation leads to development of agriculture. The low human resource development in Gadhinglaj, Radhanagari, Chandgad, Shahuwadi, Bhudargad, Ajra and Bavda tahsils is a result of rugged topography, inferior soil and heavy rainfall.

19. The high negative correlation (-0.87287) between the literacy (X) and dependency ratio (Y) has been observed in the Kolhapur district. The coefficient of determination reveals that the independent variable (X) i.e. literacy is explaining 76.1897 per cent of the total variations in dependant variable (Y) i.e. dependency ratio in the study area. The regression coefficient indicates that increase of one per cent literacy causes for decrease of dependency ratio by 1.621 in study area. The confidence intervals of the predicted values reveals that the 100 per cent of the total number of observation (n is 12) the regression is a good indicator meaning thereby that the variations in decrease of dependency ratio is the function of the variations in literacy rate.

20. The physiography, Rainfall, and soil are not favourable for population concentration in the villages those are located in Sahyadrian or Western Ghat ranges. The all most all physical factors are favourable for population concentration in the villages those are situated in the Eastern part of study region.

21. The high growth rate of male population in Parewadi, Ambade Villages is result of lack of social awareness and low female literacy. The high density of population in Malharpeth is a result of fertile soil and development of irrigation facilities as it located on bank of river Kumbhi. The high male and female crude birth rate in Parewadi and Devakewadi villages is mainly due the low literacy and lack of social awareness.

22. The case study reveals that, agro-economically developed 14 villages out of 34 villages (41%) have immigration because of fertile soil in river basin, favourable rainfall and development of surface irrigation resulted into development of agriculture and allied activities. The case study of in-migration indicates that 39.02 per cent respondents are immigrated in search of job in agricultural sector as labours 30.49 per cent respondents are in migrated as servant in government and semi-government offices and 21.95 per cent respondents are immigrated in search of job in industrial sector as a workers. The 20 villages out of 34 villages (59%) have out-migration due to the rugged topography, heay rainfall, dense forest and inferior soil resulted into poor economic condition and employment problem. On an average 42.40 percent families are out-migrated from the villages due to lack of job opportunity and 23.36 percent families out-migrated due to inadequacy and non-availability of land resources.

23. The high life expectancy in Sundi, Kapurwadi, Umalwad, Akurle, Nikamwadi, Male and Dewale is mainly due to the favorable physical factors which leads high per capita income and good health facilities. The high per capita income in Kapurwadi, Sadoli Khalsa, Kondigre, Mangaon, Male, Umalwad and Dewale villages is a result of development irrigation facility and fertile soils resulted into development of agriculture. The low general literacy rate and female literacy rate in Kitwad, Devakewadi and Mugali villages is mainly due to the hilly area and lack of transportation and education facilities. The high percentage of female population in Ukoli, Mugali, Sundi, Saroli, Akurle and Kitwad villages is a combine influence of adverse physiography, inferior soil, and heavy rainfall resulted into emigration of male population for employment. The low population above poverty line in Sundi, Ambade, Akurle and Mahipalgad villages mainly due to the hilly area, heavy rainfall which is leads low economic condition. The high dependency ratio in Akurle, Kitwad, Ukoli, Dhngewadi, Saute, Harugadewadi, Nikamwadi, Gudalwadi, Devakewadi, Mugali, Vesarde, Mahipalgad, Belewadi Kalamma, Hasursasgiri, Musalwadi, Parale, Parewadi, Khamale Hatti, Sundi and Kanur Bk villages is because of undulating topography, high area under forest, heavy rainfall, low literacy and low economic development. The high expenditure on education and health.

24. The high human resource development in Kapurwadi, Sadoli Khalsa, Kondigre, Mangaon, Male, Umalwad and Dewale villages is a result of development of irrigation facilities and fertile soils resulted into high income. The low human resource development in Khamale Hatti, Ambade, Beknal, Belewadi Kalamma ,Parewadi, Hasursasgiri, Sundi, Kanur Bk., Gudalwadi, Parale, Devakewadi, Saute, Nikamwadi, Ukoli, Musalwadi, Akurle, Harugadewadi, Mugali, Vesarde, Dhngewadi, Mahipalgad and Kitwad is a combine effect of undulating topography, heavy rainfall, inferior soil and lower development of infrastructure facilities.

25. The moderate negative correlation (= -0.53583) between the literacy (X) and dependency ratio (Y) has been observed in the selected villages in the Kolhapur district. The coefficient of determination reveals that the independent variable (X) i.e. literacy are explaining 28.711 per cent of the total variations in dependant variable (Y) i.e. dependency ratio in the study area. The regression coefficient indicates that increase of one per cent literacy causes for decrease of dependency ratio by 0.769 in the selected villages of Kolhapur district. The confidence intervals of the predicted values reveals that the 52 per cent of the total number of observation (n is 34) the regression is a good indicator meaning thereby that the variations in decrease of dependency ratio is the function of the variations in literacy rate in the selected villages of Kolhapur district.

26. The low positive correlation (+0.291032) between the irrigated area (X) and in- migration (Y) has been observed in the selected villages in the Kolhapur district. The coefficient of determination reveals that the independent variable (X) i.e. irrigated area are explaining 8.47 per cent of the total variations in dependant variable (Y) i.e. in-migration in the study area. The regression coefficient indicates that increase of one per cent irrigated area causes for increase of 0.395 person in-migration in the selected villages of Kolhapur district. The confidence intervals of the predicted values reveals that the 71.42 per cent of the total number of observation (n is 14) the regression is a good indicator meaning thereby that the variations in increase of in-migrants is the function of the variations in irrigated area in the selected villages of Kolhapur district.

SUGGESTIONS

Considering out-migration at tahsil level out of 12 tahsils three tahsils namely Bhudargad, Ajra and Gadhinglaj shows out migration but micro-level study indicates that 58 percent village (20 villages out of 34) have out-migration due to rugged topography of western Ghat, heavy rainfall, inferior soil, less development of infrastructural facilities. Therefore suitable suggestions are made to change the existing situation and thereby to achieve socio-economic development.

1. The western part of Kolhapur district have favourable natural environment for cashew nut production and much more area is under cashew nut particularly in Chandgad, Ajra and Gadhinglaj tahsil but at presently there is not any cashew nut processing industry. Majority raw materials are sent to Goa. Therefore it is suggested that to establish cashew nut processing industry and winery industry in these tahsils. Which is helpful to reduce unemployment problem and out-migration. 2. The western part of Kolhapur district have monsoon forest which consist of bamboo plant and grass further more Kolhapur district is famous for sugar industry (21 factories) which produce much more bagas therefore it is suggested that to locate paper and hard board industry in the Bhudargad, Bavda, Panhala, Radhanagari, Ajra and Gadhinglaj tahsils. 3. The climate and soil in the crest of Western Ghat is favourable for Cinnamon cultivation. So it is suggested that barren and cultivable west land in the tahsils of western part of district should be brought under Cinnamon cultivation and Cinnamon processing plants should be locate in Ajra and Radhanagari tahsils. 4. The western part of Kolhapur district (Western Ghat) is rich in flora comprises evergreen, semi-evergreen and deciduous forest therefore it is suggested that awareness should be made in the farmers in that area to do Apiculture which will be beneficial to check out-migration. 5. The Western part of district is also rich in flora and fauna and having healthy climate, sanctuaries, number of forts, Temple therefore it is suggested that Government should enhance tourism in the tahsils of Shahuwadi, Panhala, Bavda, Radhanagrai, Bhudargad, Ajra, Chandgad and Gadhinglaj tahsils. 6. The western Ghat is rich in number of medicine plants therefore it is beneficial to locate medicine industry in Bavda , Radhanagari and Bhudargad tahsils.

7. The sex ratio is very low in Panhala followed by Radhanagari, Kagal and Shirol tahsils which is dangerous to healthy society therefore it is suggested that to make awareness about the sex ratio in the society. To implement “The Bharat Beti Bachaw Beti Padhao Abhiyan” and sex determination and abortion strictly. 8. The literacy rate of Bavda, Ajra, Bhudargad, Radhanagari, Shahuwadi and Gadhinglaj tahsils is low due to the undulating topography, less accessibility and low educational facility, so it is suggested that Government should implement Sirva Shiksha Abiyan strictly and make awareness in the society about literacy and enhance educational facilities. 9. The low irrigated area in Shahuwadi, Panhala, Bavda, Radhanagari, Bhudargad, Ajra, Gadhinglaj and Chandgad tahsils acts as push factor of out- migration and resulted into low density. To check this out-migration and reduce population pressure on agriculture land of Karvir and Hatkanangale tahsil. It is suggested to develop irrigation facilities in above said tahsils and make awareness about drip irrigation in the farmers which will be helpful to increase irrigated area and agricultural productivity.

Research Guide Research Student Dr. Arjun H. Nanaware Navnath Kedari Bansode