Software to support expert elicitation An exploratory study of existing software packages RIVM Letter Report 630003001/2011 J.L.A. Devilee | A.B. Knol National Institute for Public Health and the Environment P.O. Box 1 | 3720 BA Bilthoven www.rivm.com Software to support expert elicitation An exploratory study of existing software packages RIVM Letter report 630003001/2011 J.L.A. Devilee | A.B. Knol RIVM Letter report 630003001 Colofon © RIVM 2011 Parts of this publication may be reproduced, provided acknowledgement is given to the 'National Institute for Public Health and the Environment', along with the title and year of publication. Jeroen Devilee, RIVM Anne B. Knol, RIVM Contact: Anne B. Knol MEV/MGO
[email protected] This investigation has been performed by order and for the account of Director General RIVM, within the framework of VAMPHIRE project, SOR 2006-2010 Page 2 of 98 RIVM Letter report 630003001 Abstract Software to support expert elicitation. An exploratory study of existing software packages Expert elicitations are used to gather the informed opinion of experts on topics about which little or no knowledge is available. They can also be used to build consensus on controversial knowledge. Software packages can provide important support, but a lot of researchers are not well aware of that. The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) therefore made an overview of the different possibilities. For this overview scientific literature has been reviewed, supplemented with sources on the Internet. This has been funded from the strategic research program (SOR) of the institute. There appear to exist software packages that provide support in: 1) the collaboration of experts and building consensus; 2) characterization of uncertainties; 3) selection of experts; 4) design and execution of the process of estimation and; 5) aggregation and reporting about outcomes.