Murrumbdigee Rossco

WaterNSW Operations update Murrumbidgee Valley ROSCCo November 2020 WaterNSW Dam Storages

Burrinjuck Dam storage 110%

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Blowering Dam storage 110%

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

5 NSW rainfall – 12 Months

6 NSW rainfall – 24 Months

7 Maximum temperature – 6 Months

8 Maximum temperature – 12 Months

9 Burrinjuck Dam Inflows Burrinjuck Dam actual vs statistical inflows 6 months from May-2020 Inflows are consistent with rainfall 1500 over the past 6 months. Actual inflow for the 6 months is 848 1000 GL in line with about 44th percentile inflows; while the minimum is 35 GL 500

May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Cumulative Inflows (GL) Cumulative Inflows(GL) 20 percentile 50 percentile 80 percentile Minimum Actuals

Burrinjuck Dam actual vs statistical inflows 12 months from Nov 2019 2000

Inflows are consistent with rainfall over 1500 the past 12 months. 1000 Actual inflow for the 12 months is 982 GL 500 in line with about 47th percentile; while

the minimum is 207 GL. 0

Jul-20

Jun-20

Apr-20

Jan-20

Feb-20

Sep-20

Oct-20

Mar-20

Nov-19

Aug-20

Dec-19

May-20 Cumulative Inflows (GL) Cumulative Inflows(GL) 20 percentile 50 percentile 80 percentile Minimum Actuals

10 Blowering Dam Inflows Blowering Dam actual vs statistical inflows 6 months from May 2020 600 These inflows are exclusive of Snowy Hydro’s Required Annual Release 500 volumes. 400 Inflows are consistent with rainfall over 300 the past 6 months. 200 Actual inflow for the 6 months is 404 100 Cumulative Inflows (GL) Cumulative Inflows(GL) GL slightly less than 35th percentile 0 inflows; while the minimum is 35 GL May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 20 percentile 50 percentile 80 percentile Minimum Actuals

Blowering Dam actual vs statistical inflows 12 months from Nov 2019 700 Inflows are consistent with rainfall 600 over the past 12 months. 500 400 Actual inflow for the 12 months is 507 300 GL in line with about 34th percentile 200 inflows; while the minimum is 106 GL. 100

Cumulative Inflows (GL) Cumulative Inflows(GL) 0

Jul-20

Jun-20

Apr-20

Jan-20

Feb-20

Sep-20

Oct-20

Mar-20

Nov-19

Aug-20

Dec-19 May-20 20 percentile 50 percentile 80 percentile Minimum Actuals

11 Tributary Inflows D/S Tributaries actual vs statistical inflows 6 months from May 2020 1200

1000 Inflows are consistent with rainfall over the past 6 months. 800

600 Actual inflow for the 6 months is 463

400 GL in line with about 64th percentile inflows; while the minimum is 44 GL 200

May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Cumulative Inflows (GL) Cumulative Inflows(GL) 20 percentile 50 percentile 80 percentile Minimum Actuals

D/S Tributaries actual vs statistical inflows 12 months from Nov 2019 1400 Inflows are consistent with rainfall 1200 over the past 12 months. 1000 800 Actual inflow for the 12 months is 489 600 GL which is following 76th percentile 400 inflow condition; while the minimum 200

is 96 GL. 0

Jul-20

Jun-20

Apr-20

Jan-20

Feb-20

Cumulative Inflows (GL) Cumulative Inflows(GL)

Sep-20

Oct-20

Mar-20

Nov-19

Aug-20

Dec-19 May-20 20 percentile 50 percentile 80 percentile Minimum Actuals

12 Drought Outlook

14 Climate Outlook

15 ENSO Outlook

16 Prognosis

Chances Of Improvement

The probability quoted for each allocation is the likelihood of that allocation being reached or exceeded by the start of months indicated.

The following forecasts are based on statistical inflows to Burrinjuck and Blowering Dams, and for the major tributaries below the dams up to Wagga Wagga. They start from December 2020 and are based on sequences of nineteen months.

These allocations are in addition to remaining carryover from previous seasons - The average carryover by general security category from the current year to 2020-21 is estimated as about 18%.

26/11/2020 WaterNSW Murrumbidgee Valley Water Ops Report 17 Prognosis

Potential Inflow 2020/21 Allocation by start of Conditions Probability February 2021 for assessment Note on Snowy RAR assumptions carried out mid-November 2020 99th percentile inflows Drought (99) 74% DISV at start of 2021-22= 251 GL 99 chances in 100 90th percentile inflows Very Dry (90) 78% DISV at start of 2021-22= 126 GL 9 chances in 10 75th percentile inflows Dry (75) 100% Full RAR in 2021-22 3 chances in 4 50th percentile inflows Median (50) 100% Full RAR in 2021-22 1 chance in 2 25th percentile inflows Wet (25) 100% Full RAR in 2021-22 1 chance in 4 Notes: Median conditions are the middle-sized inflows on record. There is a 50% chance of this being exceeded.

* Burrunjuck Dam is likely to spill

18 Storage Forecast

• Assumptions: – The system demands are met from the following supply systems (per order of priority): • Downstream tributaries • Blowering Dam • Burrinjuck Dam – Majority of the system demands are met from Blowering Dam subject to the Tumut River channel constraints (maximum of 270GL/month) – The monthly demand pattern follows the climatic average potential evapo-transpoirtation

WaterNSW Murrumbidgee Valley Water 26/11/2020 19 Ops Report Storage Forecast

Burrinjuck Dam forecast storage capacity Updated mid-November 2020 1200

1000

800

600

400

200 End of Month Storage (GL) Storage Month of End

Jul-20 Jul-21

Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22

Sep-20 Sep-21

Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22

Nov-20 Nov-21

May-20 May-21 May-22 Wet scenario (20%) Average scenario (50%) Dry Scenario (80%) Extreme dry scenario (99%) Actual * Including Snowy releases

20 Storage Forecast Blowering Dam forecast storage capacity Updated mid-November 2020 1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

End of Month Storage (GL) Storage Month of End

Jul-21 Jul-20 Jul-22

Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23

Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-22

Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23

Nov-20 Nov-21 Nov-22

May-23 May-20 May-21 May-22

Wet scenario (20%) Average scenario (50%) Dry Scenario (80%) Extreme dry scenario (99%) Actual * Including Snowy releases

21 What are we doing Now?

22 Current Resource Breakdown 16 November 2020

23 Current Resource Breakdown 16 November 2020

24 2020/21 Water Availability for Murrumbidgee River

Allocation Allocation Share Available AWD Carryov Assignments Assignments Regulated Licences Category Component Balance Volume er In In Out Usage COLEAMBALLY IRRIGATION (CONVEYANCE) 130,000 26,343 123,669 4,952 0 35,541 54,038 DOMESTIC AND STOCK 19,260 10,558 19,260 -29 0 0 8,059 DOMESTIC AND STOCK [DOMESTIC] 271 216 271 -12 0 0 43 DOMESTIC AND STOCK [STOCK] 10,626 3,630 10,626 0 0 0 6,197 LOCAL WATER UTILITY 23,816 19,517 23,816 0 0 0 3,894 MURRUMBIDGEE IRRIGATION (CONVEYANCE) 243,000 162,365 243,024 442 0 27,391 53,244 REGULATED RIVER (CONVEYANCE) 2,968 1,035 2,196 217 0 1,378 0 REGULATED RIVER (GENERAL SECURITY) 1,891,995 1,331,645 1,397,394 347,453 371,605 386,052 280,318 REGULATED RIVER (HIGH SECURITY) 364,279 219,128 346,068 -4 99,373 113,836 98,871 REGULATED RIVER (HIGH SECURITY) [ABORIGINAL 2,150 2,150 2,150 0 0 0 0 CULTURAL] REGULATED RIVER (HIGH SECURITY) [RESEARCH] 300 2 300 0 0 0 40 REGULATED RIVER (HIGH SECURITY) [TOWN WATER 19,769 0 19,769 0 0 0 19,769 SUPPLY] Grand Total 2,708,435 1,776,588 2,188,543 353,019 470,978 564,198 524,472 Allocation Allocation Share Available AWD Carryov Assignments Assignments Unregulated Licences Category Component Balance Volume er In In Out Usage SUPPLEMENTARY WATER 198,780 101,241 198,780 0 47,271 47,271 97,539 SUPPLEMENTARY WATER (LOWBIDGEE) 747,000 714,291 747,000 0 406,623 406,623 32,709 REGULATED RIVER (GENERAL SECURITY) - Non debit 22,670 Grand Total 945,780 815,532 945,780 0 453,894 453,894 152,918 * As per water balance extraction on 24 Nov 2020

25 2020/21 Water Availability for Murrumbidgee River

General Security Available Water Determination Date AWD ML/Share Total % 1-Jul-20 0.10 10% 15-Jul-20 0.04 14% 3-Aug-20 0.02 16% 17-Aug-20 0.16 32% 1-Sep-20 0.12 44% 15-Sep-20 0.02 46% 1-Oct-20 0.02 48% 15-Oct-20 0.06 54% 1-Nov-20 0.04 58% 9-Nov-20 0.08 66% 15-Nov-20 0.08 74%

26 IVT Account

• The 2020-21 IVT opening balance was about 6,244 ML.

• IVT trade into Murrumbidgee was opened on 2 July 2020 closed with queue on 3 July 2020.

• The current IVT balance (as of 24 Nov 2020) is about 105 GL due to tagged orders.

• The physical delivery of IVT clearance at Balranald is scheduled to commence by early December 2020.

2020 - 21 Murrumbidgee IVT Account Chart 120.0 100.0 Volume available for Trade into Murrumbidgee 90.0 Volume available for Trade out of 100.0 Murrumbidgee Year-to date - Total Trade Out of 80.0 Valley

80.0 70.0

60.0 60.0

50.0 Total TradeVolumes(GL)

40.0 -

40.0

date

- Volume Available VolumeAvailable Tradefor (GL)

20.0 30.0 Year

20.0 0.0 10.0

-20.0 0.0

1-Jul

31-Jul

27-Jan

25-Jun

29-Oct

26-Apr

29-Sep 26-Feb

28-Dec

30-Aug

28-Nov

27-Mar 26-May Water NSW © 2019 – Do not copy, cite or distribute without permission of Water NSW 28 River Transmission Loss Annual Murrumbidgee River loss 400 * Data for flood year 2016/17 is excluded in this chart 350

300

250

200

150

100 Cumulative transmission loss (GL) loss transmission Cumulative

0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Months 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 (YTD) 2020/21 (Projected)

Cumulative transmission loss (GL) loss transmission Cumulative 20

0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Months 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 (YTD) 2020/21 (Projected)

Balranald EoS Target - Planned eWater and other downstream orders 4500 Actual delivery 4000 Required flow 3500 Balranald operations surplus and spills 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500

0 Orders, Orders, Delivery and Surplus(ML/day)

Water NSW © 2019 – Do not copy, cite or distribute without permission of Water 31 NSW End of System Flow Target - Darlot Darlot EoS Target - Planned eWater and other downstream orders 500 450 Actual delivery 400 Required flow 350 Darlot operations surplus and spills 300 250 200 150 100 50

0 Orders, Orders, Delivery and Surplus(ML/day)

Operational surplus is water above that which could reasonably be expected to pass the last extraction point on each given river/creek.

Murrumbidgee River - Water Delivery Operational Surplus Vs Murrumbidgee Cumulative Totals Total Sales + 6% Sales - 2020-21 Cumulative % Environmental Operation Actual Target delivery + IVT al Surplus 5% July 52,444 0 0% 5% 4% July-Aug 217,190 8,739 4% 5% July-Sep 453,108 16,663 4% 5% 3% July-Oct 703,404 29,290 4% 5% Target below July-Nov 0 0 0% 5% 2% July-Dec 0 0 0% 5% July-Jan 0 0 0% 5% 1% July-Feb 0 0 0% 5% July-Mar 0 0 0% 5% 0% July-Apr 0 0 0% 5% July-May 0 0 0% 5% July-Jun 0 0 0% 5%

26/11/2020 WaterNSW Murrumbidgee Valley Water Ops Report 33 System Outage Plan

– Painting of the Maude Weir Super Structure has started and expected to be complete by end of December 2020

– The Painting program for Gogeldrie started on the 30 June 2020 and will continue until mid-January 2021. However, the maintenance activity under the coating program is not expected to impact the normal River Operations and Weir levels.

– Burrinjuck Dam 90” High-Level outlet valve is not available for operations until repair works could be undertaken in the trash rack. The vibration in the trash rack is assessed to be unsafe under operations. The available release capacity with other fixed outlet works is forecast to be sufficient to meet system demand during this season.