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The Carbon Crunch and What to Do About It

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The Carbon Crunch and What to Do About It The Carbon Crunch and what to do about it IPPR January 15th 2013 Dieter Helm, Professor of Energy Policy, University of Oxford Author of The Carbon Crunch: How we are geng climate change wrong and how to fix it. Yale University Press, 2012 The Quesons • What are the causes of global warming? – Facing uP to some inconvenient facts • Why has so liQle been achieved? – Recognising current failures • How do we make Progress? – Delivering effecLve climate miLgaon 15th January 2013 Professor Dieter Helm 3 An ever-uPward Path AtmosPheric CO2 (PPm) 400 390 380 370 360 350 340 330 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: US Department of Commerce National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 15th January 2013 Professor Dieter Helm 4 What causes global warming? 3 related causes: • The role of coal • China • PoPulaon growth ICarbon consumPLon, not ProducLon, is what maers 15th January 2013 Professor Dieter Helm 5 Historical coal burn vs atmosPheric CO2 (mt & PPm) 6000 400 390 5000 380 4000 370 3000 360 2000 350 Atmospheric CO2 (ppm) 1000 Coal consumPLon AtmosPheric CO2 340 Coal consumpon (million tonnes of coal equivalent) 0 330 Source: US DePartment of Commerce Naonal Oceanic & AtmosPheric Administraon (NOAA), BP stasLcal 15th January 2013 Professor Dieter Helm 6 review of world energy 2011 World coal demand scenarios to 2035 (mt) 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 New Policies Current Policies 4000 Million tonnes 450 scenario 3000 2000 1000 0 1980 2009 2020 2035 15th January 2013 Professor Dieter Helm Source: OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2011 7 Global and Chinese coal demand in the base-case scenario (BCS) and Chinese slow-down case (CSDC) Source: IEA Medium-term coal market rePort 2012 8 EuroPe’s own dash-for-coal • EUETS < EUR10 I gas coal • Germany: nuclear coal I major new coal build in EuroPe I lignite coal is being exPanded in Germany I There is a gas coal switch in EuroPe 15th January 2013 Professor Dieter Helm 9 Gas and coal-based electricity generaon in select EuroPean countries From gas From From From gas Rela6ve Rela6ve Electricity Jan-Jun coal Jan- Coal Jan- Jan-Jun 2012 growth growth generaon 2011 (in Jun 2011 Jun 2012 (in GWh) (in %) (in %) GWh) (in GWh) (in GWh) Germany 40984 34749 -15 129399 140008 8 SPain 40696 35790 -12 16803 27656 65 UK 71894 48109 -33 52422 70991 35 Source: IEA Medium-term coal market rePort 2012 10 PoPulaon growth – Providing energy for another 2 billion PeoPle Source: United Naons 15th January 2013 Professor Dieter Helm 11 What is likely to hapPen before 2020? By 2020: • China X 2 GDP • India X 2 GDP While no further acLon following Durban & Doha before 2020 I 400 – 600 GWs new coal by 2020 (if 12th 5 year plan imPlemented in China) 15th January 2013 Professor Dieter Helm 12 Why has so liQle been achieved? • Kyoto is ProducLon-based & largely EuroPean • EuroPe has been de-industrialising • Some current renewables are exPensive, contribute liQle to global climate change miLgaon and raise energy Prices • Nuclear is reducing across EuroPe (esPecially in UK and Germany) + being rePlaced by coal in Germany 15th January 2013 Professor Dieter Helm 13 EU Climate Change Package • 2020 – 20 – 20 : It all adds uP to 20!!!! • Raonale was “World leadershiP” – offering 30% at CoPenhagen But then…. • Nuclear exit • More coal • 2050 Roadmap and 2030 targets 15th January 2013 Professor Dieter Helm 14 EuroPe: an unviable PosiLon Compeveness Current renewables policies Consumpon of carbon Costs • Current renewables cannot make much difference to global climate change– land & shallow sea areas just not big enough • Energy efficiency – good idea but does not necessarily reduce energy demand 15th January 2013 Professor Dieter Helm 15 How do we make Progress (if we really want to)? 1. Carbon Pricing and Carbon consumPLon and border adjustments 2. Coal gas subsLtuLon And then…. 3. Enormous scoPe for new technologies – future renewables 15th January 2013 Professor Dieter Helm 16 Carbon taxes v. EU ETS 35 A carbon tax 30 alternave 25 20 15 Carbon price EUR 10 EU ETS futures Prices 5 0 Source: Bloomberg 15th January 2013 Professor Dieter Helm 17 Border carbon adjustments • Focus on carbon consumPLon • Not to Price carbon is to subsidise exPorts • Locaonal indifference • Start with small number of very large carbon- intensive industries • Encourages others to introduce carbon Prices I BoQom uP, steP-wise towards global carbon pricing 15th January 2013 Professor Dieter Helm 18 Coal " gas for the transiLon Fossil fuel emissions 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Coal (average) Fuel oil Natural gas Approximate CO2 emissions: grammes of CO2 per KwH of electricity generated Source: International Energy Agency "CO2 emissions from fuel combustion highlights 2011" 15th January 2013 Professor Dieter Helm 19 The new technologies – future renewables, acLve grids and more… • Next generaon solar • Smart Meters • Storage and baeries • Electrificaon of transPort • Biotechnologies • Nuclear: PRISM, Fast-breeders 15th January 2013 Professor Dieter Helm 20 Conclusions • EuroPean leadershiP has failed • 2020 – 20 – 20 has Probably made maers worse • Durban will Probably lead to 450PPm ++ EITHER: • Change tack now • Admit defeat 15th January 2013 Professor Dieter Helm 21 8/21/12 The Carbon Crunch by Dieter Helm - Yale University Press ��ree UK Delivery The Carbon Crunch Price: £20.00 How We're Getting Climate Change Wrong - and How to Fix it Pre-order Dieter Helm ��ormat: Hardback Publication 30 Sep 2012 date: Enlarge Image ISBN: 9780300186598 Dimensions: 304 pages: 234 x 156mm Categories: Earth Sciences » Environment » Pollution and Threats to Environment » Global Warming » A15th January 2013bout this book Professor Dieter Helm 22 About the author Despite commitments to renewable energy and two decades of international negotiations, global emissions continue to rise. Coal, the most damaging of all fossil fuels, has actually risen from 25 per cent to almost 30 per cent of world energy use. And while European countries have congratulated themselves on reducing emissions, they have increased their carbon imports from China and other developing nations, who continue to expand their coal use. As standards of living increase in developing countries, coal use can only increase as well - and global temperatures along with it. In this hard-hitting book, Dieter Helm looks at how and why we have failed to tackle the issue of global warming and argues for a new, pragmatic rethinking of energy policy - from transitioning from coal to gas and eventually to electrification of transport, to yalebooks.co.uk/display.asp?K=9780300186598# 1/3 www.dieterhelm.co.uk • “EMR and the Energy Bill – a criLque” hQP://www.dieterhelm.co.uk/node/1330 • “Mr Davey’s ‘myths’” hQP://www.dieterhelm.co.uk/node/1343 • EuroPean Energy Policy, in: The Oxford Handbook of the European Union Edited by E Jones, A Menon, and S Weatherill, OUP, August 2012. • The UK’s new dash for gas, Prospect, 20th SePtember 2012. • Trade, climate change and the poliEcal game theory of border carbon adjustments, with Cameron HePburn and Giovanni Ruta, May 2012, Grantham Research InsLtute on Climate Change and the Environment, Working Paper No. 80. • SurPrise – the oil Price isn’t higher, Prospect, April 2012. • What next for EU energy Policy?, in Green, safe, cheap: Where next for EU energy policy? edited by Kanka Barysch, Centre for EuroPean Reform, 2011. • The Economics and PoliEcs of Climate Change, Helm, D. R. and HePburn, C. (eds), (new ediLon 2011), Oxford University Press. 15th January 2013 Professor Dieter Helm 23 .
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