IC MARKET ESPRESSO InterCapital Research 26 January 2017
Croatia I Slovenia I Romania I Bulgaria I Serbia Quote of the Day: IC Daily Highlights „Man is nothing more than what he makes of himself.” Theme of the Day: Jean Paul Sartre Investors' Day @ InterCapital – Triglav Group Bond, Money and Currency Markets: Croatian Credit Rating Scheduled for Review Tomorrow by Fitch Croatian Equity Market: 150 Regional indices TTM CRO Index SBITOP Index BELEX15 Index Podravka Gave Non-Binding Bid for Mlinar (Bakery Business) 140 BET Index SOFIX Index
Regional Equity Market: 130 Sopharma Trading Reported Higher Both Revenues and EBT in 2016 120 Global Equity Market: 110 U.S. Equities Closed at All-time High Technical Perspective - Region: 100
CROBEX - Resistance @ 2100 90
Technical Perspective - Global: 80 CAC40 - Psychological level @ 5000 Source: Bloomberg 70 27-Jan-16 27-Apr-16 27-Jul-16 27-Oct-16
Upcoming Announcements IC Daily Newsflash Date Announcement •[CROATIA] Optima Telekom's GA approved merger with its peer H1 Telekom •[CROATIA] Podravka delivered non-binding bid for Mlinar (bakery business), according to media 20-Feb-17 Petrol - FY 2016 results •[CROATIA] EUR 0.5m worth shares of AD Plastik [ADPLRA CZ] traded as a block 23-Feb-17 TLSG - FY 2016 (prelim.)
•[SLOVENIA] Gorenje issued a commercial paper worth EUR 40m with matury on Dec 2017 and 28-Feb-17 ATGR - Non-audit FY 2016 results
1.3% interest rate 9-Mar-17 ZVTG - Non-audit FY 2016 results •[SLOVENIA] EUR 0.13m worth shares of Gorenje [GRVG SV] traded as a block 10-Mar-17 GRVG - Non-audit FY 2016 results •[SLOVENIA] EUR 0.15m worth shares of Sava RE [POSR SV] traded as a block 15-Mar-17 CICG - Non-audit FY 2016 results •[SLOVENIA] In Jan 2017, the economic sentiment indicator increased by 6.2 p.p. YoY 21-Mar-17 TLSG - Annual Report 2016 •[SERBIA] In Dec 2016, the average net wage stood at EUR 433 (+2.4% YoY) 31-Mar-17 ATGR - FY 2016 results •[ROMANIA] Fin Min analysts raise 2017 GDP growth forecast to 5.2% (from 4.3%) •[BULGARIA] Sopharma Trading reported higher revenues (+2% YoY) and EBT (+13% YoY) in FY 6-Apr-17 ZVTG - FY 2016 results 2016 •[BULGARIA] Ind. Capital Holding published non-cons results for FY 2016 Top Regional Investment Stories
InterCapital Contacts Company Investment Thesis
One of the largest hospitality groups Đivo Pulitika Danijel Delač Kristina Pukšec VALAMAR Favourable accommodation positioning Analyst Head of Brokerage Head of Fixed Income and Money Market RIVIERA Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 867 Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 894 Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 854 Strong growth potential E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Stable cash flow PETROL High level of debt Margareta Maresić Renata Čempuh Ivan Dražetić GROUP Strong retail player Junior Analyst Head of Front Office Money Market and Fixed Income, Dealer Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 857 Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 890 Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 852 Strategic shift E-mail: [email protected] ADRIS E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Strong cash position GROUP Growth potential in insurance
Marcel Dimač Filip Majić Marin Onorato Managed by Franklin Templeton FONDUL Junior Analyst Broker Money Market and Fixed Income, Dealer Significant discount to NAV Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 858 Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 896 Phone: + 385 (0)1 4343 180 PROPR. E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Possible privatizations of portfolio companies
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 1 InterCapital.hr IC.trader IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Theme of the Day
Investors' Day @ InterCapital – Triglav Group
GWP(EUR m) EBT development (EUR m) and ROE
The group’s GWP is foreseen around 100 103 EUR 900m for 2016, whereas this 919 930 901 900 84 year the management expects some 888 90 13.4% 80 80 EUR 930m. 12.8% 70 12.0%
10.1%
2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017P 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017P
Combined ratio Investment portfolio structure
2.1% 2.2% 4.2% 2.7% 2.7% 2.9% 6.4% 7.1% Other Combined ratio worsened to 95.0% 96.3% 15.7% 14.6% Deposits with banks (which is 330 bps higher on a yearly basis but in line both with FY 2016 95.0% 95.0% Investment property plan and strategy).
92.8% Shares and other 68.9% 70.5% 91.0% floating rate securities Unit-linked insurance contract investments Debt and other fixed Note: the dotted line in the chart with return securities a combined ratio shows the 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017P Dec 2015 Sep 2016 strategically planned level by 2020
Yesterday we had the pleasure to host the largest regional insurance company Triglav Group for our traditional Investors’ Day @ InterCapital. Following the event we bring you the highlights from the meeting attended by Ms. Uroš Ivanc – CFO and member of the Management Board and Ms. Helena Ulaga Kitek – Investors relations. Our special guests presented the company’s financial results (up to 9M 2016) including the new business strategy up to 2020 and the business plan for 2017. In addition, we had opportunity to discuss about trends in the insurance market. Regarding the estimates for 2016, the group’s GWP from insurance contracts is foreseen around EUR 900m, which is slightly below FY 2015 result of EUR 919.1m. However, here we should mention that Triglav sold the Czech subsidiary in 2015 - otherwise the results would come out flattish. Pre-tax profit is estimated in a range of EUR 80-90m, representing a decrease between 12% - 22% YoY, primarily due to lower net gains from financial assets. Having said that, the company sees annualized ROE at 10.1% (from 16.0% in 9M 2015 report) while combined ratio worsened to 95.0% (which is 330 bps higher on a yearly basis but in line both with FY 2016 plan and strategy). Although the profitability has been reduced, the group plans to keep a relatively conservative investment structure. The potential for better profits could come from the expected rise in interest rates. When talking about the dividends, Triglav plans to keep them in line with the previous dividend policy. In the future, Triglav aims to focus on profitability on the Slovenian market and preserve the leading market position. Special attention will be given to life, health and pension insurance products. In other markets, Triglav sees potential for further organic growth and development, increasing the total written premiums, whereas the potential takeovers are not excluded. The biggest challenge is seen in so-called “disruptors”, the competitors from geographical regions outside of the ones where Triglav is currently present. Therefore, one of their main future focuses will be on technology innovations. Specifically, the plan is to develop digital models which will help to maintain market position as well as allow them to enter markets outside the existing region.
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 2 InterCapital.hr IC.trader IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Bond, money and currency markets
Croatian Credit Rating Scheduled for Review Tomorrow by Fitch Macroeconomic indicators
INDICATOR CRO SLO SRB ROM BUL The first credit rating review for Croatian sovereign paper is scheduled to take place GDP (YoY, %) 2,9 2,7 2,6 4,3 3,2 tomorrow. Fitch Ratings would be the second major agency to do so this year, and the ten-year yield (%) 2,8 3,4 6,5 1,9 1,7 results might be quite significant due to the two pending government debt auctions – CPI headline (YoY, %) 0,2 0,5 1,6 -0,5 0,1 LCY in February and international by the end of the first quarter. PPI (YoY, %) 0,0 0,5 2,2 -0,2 -0,6 Last two agencies that reviewed Croatia were Standard&Poor’s (end 2016) and Moody’s ind. Production (YoY, %) 7,1 7,4 1,3 1,5 4,3 (the very beginning of 2017). S&P decided to ameliorate the outlook from negative to retail (YoY, %) 2,5 11,3 7,4 9,3 6,1 stable, while Moody’s left the rating and the outlook both unchanged. unemployment (YoY, %) 14,8 7,6 16,9 4,8 8,0 budget balance (% GDP) -1,3 -2,7 -1,7 -0,8 -1,7 Fitch currently holds Croatia in ‘BB’ basket (together with regional peer Macedonia and public debt (% GDP) 88,3 86,2 78,5 39,3 26,7 Brazil, for instance) with a negative outlook. Basket average in terms of public debt is 45.5% GDP, while Croatian government debt stood at 84.9% GDP in 3Q2016, according to Interest rates Eurostat data. Another interesting fact is that in July Fitch forecasted that Croatian economy could grow at 1.8% YoY pace in 2016 and 1.9% YoY in 2017-2018. Six months DUR. Zibor Euribor Belibor Robor later we saw these indicators changing in favourable way since Croatia is expected to (HRK) (EUR) (RSD) (RON) grow around 2.9% in 2016 and 3.0% in 2017-2018, political scene gets consolidated, O/N 0,40% n.a. 2,99% 0,49% while budget deficit dropped down to 2.1% GDP (ESA 2010) in 2016 and is expected to 1M 0,53% -0,37% 3,33% 0,61% modestly increase to 2.5% GDP in 2017. 3M 0,64% -0,33% 3,46% 0,82% The chart submitted below demonstrates both the yield and the spread between 6M 0,75% -0,24% 3,67% 1,05% Croatian and Romanian international bonds maturing in 2025. Romania is rated BBB- by 9M 0,82% -0,16% n.a. 1,15% the same agency that will give its review tomorrow, and the chart clearly shows the 1Y 0,95% -0,10% n.a. 1,23% spread between the two contracting from 140-150bp range in January 2016 to the current value of 75bp. The market sees Croatia as a safer country to invest in, but the Eurobonds question is would the rating agencies share the same opinion. bond curr. coupon price mid ytm
CROATIA 4.5 CROATIA 2025 EUR & ROMANIA 2025 EUR, Yields and Spreads 185 CROATI 18 EUR 5,875% 108,46 0,00% 170 4.0 CROATI 22 EUR 3,875% 108,36 2,19% CROATI 25 EUR 3,000% 101,15 2,84% 155 3.5 CROATI 17 USD 5,500% 101,08 1,75% 140 CROATI 19 USD 6,750% 109,13 3,26%
3.0 125 CROATI 20 USD 5,625% 109,76 3,60% CROATI 21 USD 6,375% 109,85 3,79% 2.5 110 CROATI 23 USD 5,500% 106,86 4,23%
95 CROATI 24 USD 6,000% 109,80 4,36% 2.0 80 SLOVENIA 1.5 65 SLOVEN 18 EUR 4,000% 105,00 -0,37% SLOVEN 18 USD 4,750% 103,50 1,96% 1.0 50 SLOVEN 22 USD 5,500% 111,44 3,29% Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Spread (bp, rhs) Croatia 2025 EUR (lhs, YTM, %) Romania 2025 EUR (lhs, YTM, %) SLOVEN 23 USD 5,850% 113,47 3,44% SLOVEN 24 USD 5,250% 110,66 3,53%
SERBIA Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital SERBIA 17 USD 5,250% 102,44 2,19% SERBIA 18 USD 5,825% 105,08 3,01% Bloomberg: INKA5
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 3 InterCapital.hr IC.trader IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Croatian Equity Market
Podravka Gave Non-Binding Bid for Mlinar (Bakery Business) CRO Index 145 Volume: EUR 0.97m CRO10 Index Although the company gave no official statements, media wrote that Podravka gave a non-binding bid for Mlinar, a leading Croatian bakery company. Mlinar is allegedly also 135 CROPLUS Index eyed by the Slovene-Serbian group Don Don. 125 Other than Croatia where they have 165 own stores, Mlinar is also present in Slovenia with 23 stores, Hungary (7), Germany, Australia and Switzerland (1 store in each 115 country). We looked at Mlinar’s 2015 annual report and saw they recorded operating revenues of EUR 57m with a 16% EBITDA margin and 11% profit margin. They had 14% 105
ROE (equity equalled EUR 45m), but ended 2015 with a net debt of EUR 35m (4x 95 EBITDA). The high level of debt is exactly what the media quote as one of the major Source: Bloomberg reasons why the current owner might decide to sell. 85 27-Jan-16 27-Apr-16 27-Jul-16 27-Oct-16 Following these media statements, Mlinar said their majority owner still hasn’t made a decision to sell, and that they are used to receive these kinds of offers multiple times 115 SBITOP Index each year. We emphasize that this news is solely based on media statement, thus we Volume: EUR 0.93m
will keep an eye and inform you on any further developments. 110
105
Regional Equity Market 100
Sopharma Trading Reported Higher Both Revenues and EBT in 2016 95 [Bulgaria – Sopharma – SO5 BG] Sopharma Trading, leading commercial company in Source: Bloomberg the health care sector, and part of Sopharma Group, reported its revenues for 2016 90 27-Jan-16 27-Apr-16 27-Jul-16 27-Oct-16 amounting to BGN 613.1m (+1.5% YoY). During the 2016, the company reached profit
before taxes of BGN 15.3m (+13% YoY). The results for December 2016 also show 130 BELEX15 Index improvement on annual basis since the revenues stood at BGN 55.8m (+9%), while the Volume: EUR 0.26m BELEXLIN Index profit before taxes increased by 343% (at BGN 1.3m). 125 120 [Bulgaria – Industrial Capital Holding – 4I8 BG] Industrial Capital Holding published its non-consolidated results for FY 2016. The report indicates revenues of BGN 2.25m (- 115
1.4%) mainly due to decrease of interest revenues (-53%). Operating expenses stood at 110 BGN 769k (+1.9%) and the increase was mainly generated by the rise of employee benefits expense (+5.4%) which comprise more than 70% of total expenses. The profit 105
before taxes stood at BGN 1.5m and declined by 1.5% compared to the last year. 100
95
Source: Bloomberg 90 27-Jan-16 27-Apr-16 27-Jul-16 27-Oct-16
120 Index fundamentals Volume: EUR 10.19m BET Index 115 BET-BK Index Last EV / Net debt
Day YTD 1Y Price EV/S P/E EBITDA / EBITDA ROE (%) Div. Yld 110
CROBEX* -0,2% 4,7% 30,4% 2.088 1,23 23,43 9,96 2,24 5,0% 2,5% 105 SBITOP -0,2% 3,0% 8,9% 739 0,54 11,75 6,39 2,15 7,7% 4,9% 100 BELEX15 -0,1% -2,7% 19,8% 698 0,81 28,32 5,65 0,61 2,5% 4,3% 95 BET 1,6% 4,2% 18,3% 7.386 1,05 16,50 3,40 -0,79 5,3% 7,3%
SOFIX 1,0% 4,2% 37,6% 611 0,96 12,83 7,67 1,47 5,0% 1,7% 90
Source: Bloomberg 85 14-Jan-16 14-Apr-16 14-Jul-16 14-Oct-16 Daily market snapshot 145 SOFIX Index Volume: EUR 2.26m Volume (EURm) Winners Laggards 140 BGBX40 Index 135 OMV Petrom 3,71 Nuclearelectrica 11,05% KD Group -5,53% 130 Transgaz 1,59 Neochim 9,02% Dalekovod -3,00% 125 Romgaz 1,46 Holding Varna 8,10% Energoprojekt holding -1,92% 120 Electrica 0,86 Industrial Holding Bulgaria 6,31% Varteks -1,91% 115 Banca Transilvania 0,83 Eurohold Bulgaria 4,20% Ledo -1,83% 110
Chimimport 0,64 Tankerska NG 3,83% Duro Dakovic -1,66% 105
AD Plastik 0,52 Romgaz 3,23% Zavarovalnica Triglav -1,07% 100
Fondul Proprietatea 0,30 Banca Transilvania 3,07% Optima Telekom -1,04% 95 Source: Bloomberg Krka 0,28 Transgaz 2,34% Messer Tehnogas -0,82% 90 27-Jan-16 27-Apr-16 27-Jul-16 27-Oct-16
* ATPLRA ZA and ADRSPA ZA are excluded from CROBEX multiples and ratios due to large one-off event / Market snapshot includes only main index components
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 4 InterCapital.hr IC.trader IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Global Equity Market
U.S. Equities Closed at All-time High Change (%) Index U.S. equities closed at all-time highs on Wednesday after a series of executive orders day 1 Y YTD from President Donald Trump increased bullish sentiment on Wall Street, while North/South America financials outperformed. DOW JONES 0,78% 24,13% 1,55%
The Dow Jones industrial average broke above 20,000 for the first time, rising about 150 S&P 500 0,80% 20,74% 2,66%
points as Boeing, Goldman Sachs and IBM contributed the most gains. The S&P 500 NASDAQ 0,99% 23,83% 5,08%
advanced 0.8 percent to a new all-time high, with financials rising more than 1.5%. The S&P/TSX 0,21% 26,86% 2,33%
Nasdaq composite gained 1.0%, also notching a record high. BOLSA 0,26% 15,13% 5,77% U.S. stocks had rallied significantly following the presidential election, with the S&P 500 BOVESPA 0,14% 73,12% 9,32% advancing 6.6% since Nov. 8, entering Wednesday trading. The rally was largely propelled MERVAL 0,20% 84,94% 14,71% by the prospects of lower corporate taxes, deregulation of certain sectors and more IPSA 0,47% 21,33% 3,48% government spending. Asia/Pacific
S&P/ASX 200 0,38% 13,28% 0,10%
NIKKEI 225 1,81% 16,12% 1,51%
HANG SENG 1,30% 23,79% 6,13%
SHCOPM 0,31% 14,89% 1,79%
KOSPI 0,81% 11,32% 2,82%
TWSE 0,25% 19,68% 2,10%
SET 0,76% 25,88% 3,46%
BSE SENSEX 30 1,21% 13,16% 4,06% Africa/Near East/Russia
FTSE/JSE 0,51% 9,33% 6,15%
XU 100 0,55% 16,40% 6,97%
Hermes -0,48% 112,78% 4,56%
Tel Aviv 100 0,72% -0,25% -2,67%
MICEX 10 0,41% 29,34% -0,79%
RTS -0,25% 69,37% 0,39% Western Europe
DJ EURO STOXX 50 1,36% 9,67% 1,08%
FTSE 100 0,20% 21,20% 0,30%
CAC 40 0,99% 11,96% 0,32%
DAX 1,82% 20,19% 2,83%
IBEX 35 1,73% 9,86% 2,11%
S&P/MIB 30 0,42% 3,48% 1,81%
SMI 1,71% 0,88% 2,04%
ATX 2,04% 26,90% 4,60%
S&P 500 SECTOR PERFORMANCE % Day % YTD % 1M % 3M % 6M % 1Y % Day % YTD % 1M % 3M % 6M % 1Y CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 0,6% 4,6% 3,2% 8,2% 4,6% 16,2% INDUSTRIALS 1,0% 3,0% 1,7% 12,2% 9,3% 29,9% CONSUMER STAPLES 0,0% 2,1% 1,4% 0,5% -3,6% 7,5% INFO TECH 1,1% 5,7% 4,2% 6,2% 12,5% 27,7% ENERGY 0,6% -0,9% -2,1% 6,8% 8,9% 33,0% MATERIALS 0,7% 6,4% 5,1% 13,5% 8,3% 38,9% FINANCIALS 1,6% 1,7% 0,2% 19,5% 23,2% 37,6% TELECOM SERVICES -0,2% -3,9% -4,4% 9,0% -5,8% 10,3% HEALTHCARE 0,9% 1,1% 0,2% 1,1% -6,8% 2,9% UTILITIES -0,0% -0,5% -0,6% -0,4% -7,4% 10,5%
STOXX EUROPE 600 SECTOR PERFORMANCE % Day % YTD % 1M % 3M % 6M % 1Y % Day % YTD % 1M % 3M % 6M % 1Y AUTOMOBILES & PARTS 1,3% 5,0% 4,0% 14,0% 19,3% 17,2% INSURANCE 1,2% 3,5% 3,7% 8,1% 10,4% 9,6% BANKS 1,6% 3,2% 3,9% 7,5% 13,4% 19,1% MEDIA 0,2% -1,6% -0,8% 6,7% 0,2% -2,9% BASIC RESOURCES 0,1% -4,5% -3,4% -2,1% -9,7% -6,4% OIL & GAS 0,7% -1,1% -0,2% 8,6% 12,5% 29,1% CHEMICALS 1,4% 2,8% 3,0% 10,1% 13,5% 17,4% REAL ESTATE 2,5% 0,5% 0,7% 11,8% 22,1% 6,4% CONST. & MATERIALS 3,0% 5,2% 4,4% 17,7% 35,1% 14,5% RETAIL -0,3% -2,6% -1,9% -4,2% -10,9% -8,0% CONSUMER GOODS 1,0% -0,7% -0,5% 8,3% 3,7% -3,6% TECHNOLOGY -0,1% 11,8% 14,9% 27,1% 40,6% 107,4% FINANCIAL SERVICES 0,2% -0,2% 0,6% -1,5% -6,8% -2,8% TELECOM SERVICES -0,2% -2,4% -2,3% -3,3% -5,7% -14,2% FOOD & BEVERAGE 1,0% 1,5% 1,8% 6,3% 4,3% 8,0% TRAVEL & LEASURE 1,4% 2,8% 3,1% 8,9% 11,6% 19,2% HEALTH CARE 1,4% -1,9% -1,2% 1,9% -9,3% -7,1% UTILITIES 0,9% -2,0% -1,1% 0,1% 2,5% -3,3% IND. GOODS & SERVICES 1,2% 3,1% 4,1% 6,2% 2,9% 9,3%
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 5 InterCapital.hr IC.trader IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Technical Perspective - Region
CROBEX - Resistance @ 2100 (daily chart)
Today we are looking @ daily CROBEX graph. It continues to move upwards and next resistance we see @ 2100. Key resistance provides high from 25/03/2011 @ 2300. Trading Suggestion: First support provides green upward trend line. Additional support provides high from 2013 @ 2032. RSI is in upward trend and is near to overbought.
We would be sellers in case green upward trend line gets breached
Technical Targets: 2338… high 2011 2300… high 25/03/2011 2093… last 2032… high 2013 2010… SMAVG50 2006… high 2016 2000… psychological level
Technical Perspective - Global
CAC40 - Psychological level @ 5000 (daily chart)
Today we are looking @ CAC40 daily graph. It is still in upward trend and resistance that provides psychological level @ 5000 is in the reach. First support provides green upward Trading Suggestion: trend line. Next support provides SMAVG50 and high from 09/09/2015 @ 4733. RSI is testing red downward trend line.
We would be sellers around 5000
Technical Targets: 5000… psychological level 4884… last 4753… SMAVG50 4733… high 09/09/2015
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 6 InterCapital.hr IC.trader IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Regional Equity Market; Fundamentals of Selected Companies
Selected Equity Fundamentals (Trailing Basis) & Performance
Company Change Fundamental indicators
Last M. Cap EV / Net debt availab. FS ( EURm) Last price Day YTD 1Y P/E P/BV P/CFO EV/S EBITDA / EBITDA ROA (%) ROE (%) Dividend Div. Yld
Industrial
Koncar 2016-09 257,4 750,00 0,0% 8,7% 19,1% 12,75 0,82 19,03 0,51 6,78 -2,46 4,1% 6,4% 12,00 1,6%
Ericsson NT 2016-09 221,9 1.248,54 -0,1% 7,3% 36,7% 18,76 7,10 9,23 0,96 10,45 -1,35 11,9% 37,9% 100,00 8,0% Petrokemija 2016-09 30,3 17,65 0,0% -1,4% 32,7% -3,22 2,22 14,75 0,45 19,12 14,31 -6,1% -69,0% 0,00 0,0%
Duro Dakovic 2016-09 45,0 44,42 -1,7% -1,6% 44,1% -10,08 -33,87 -4,78 1,34 780,20 378,01 -5,7% n/a 0,00 0,0% AD Plastik 2016-09 78,4 139,99 0,0% 1,0% 48,5% 13,04 0,90 -19,82 0,98 7,44 2,79 3,4% 6,9% 12,00 8,6%
Gorenje 2016-09 154,4 6,32 -0,5% 5,4% 45,3% 27,87 0,42 2,52 0,45 6,23 4,51 0,5% 1,5% 0,00 0,0% Cinkarna 2016-09 140,9 173,00 1,2% 6,8% 135,4% 13,92 0,96 14,73 0,69 4,65 -1,00 5,5% 6,9% 4,20 2,4%
Metalac 2016-06 28,8 1.750,00 0,0% 3,8% 45,2% 8,23 0,79 7,32 0,50 5,14 0,36 5,8% 9,6% 155,00 8,9% Jedinstvo 2016-06 9,8 4.000,00 1,4% -2,4% -18,4% 3,85 0,24 -1,28 0,06 0,61 -1,56 3,2% 6,3% 211,76 5,3%
Alfa Plam 2016-06 46,6 33.020,00 0,0% -5,7% 3,2% 8,71 0,87 6,36 0,71 5,50 -2,22 7,9% 10,0% 1.000,00 3,0% Messer Teh. 2016-06 108,0 12.900,00 -0,8% -0,8% 58,5% 3,36 0,81 7,01 1,00 2,49 -1,85 22,4% 24,0% 1.801,00 14,0% Gosa Montaza 2016-06 4,9 2.350,00 0,0% -2,1% 47,8% 4,96 0,59 -28,22 -0,04 -0,45 -4,26 7,1% 11,9% 142,00 6,0%
Neochim 2016-09 90,3 66,50 9,0% 11,6% 54,7% 10,31 2,30 11,44 0,85 6,42 0,78 12,9% 22,3% 0,80 1,2% Monbat 2016-09 195,4 9,80 0,0% 1,5% 32,3% 17,12 2,05 -31,11 1,93 11,91 2,40 6,8% 11,9% 0,28 2,9%
MS Hydraulic 2015-12 133,8 6,70 0,1% 0,8% 36,7% 30,62 4,13 15,30 2,85 14,71 -0,83 11,7% 13,5% 0,22 3,3%
Utility
Electrica 2016-09 1.040,6 13,54 1,0% 2,9% 16,5% 12,01 0,72 8,08 0,50 2,88 -3,51 4,7% 6,0% 0,86 6,4% Transgaz 2016-09 800,4 306,00 2,3% 4,1% 19,1% 7,78 1,00 6,60 1,62 3,64 -1,14 9,1% 12,8% 27,61 9,0% Transelectrica 2016-06 487,7 29,95 0,3% 2,6% 11,8% 7,84 0,73 2,94 0,70 2,91 -0,22 5,5% 9,3% 2,65 8,8% Janaf 2016-09 847,1 6.300,00 -4,5% 18,9% 46,2% 22,66 1,74 13,07 7,92 10,34 -1,33 7,1% 7,7% 132,15 2,1%
Energy
INA 2016-09 4.287,5 3.213,02 0,0% 10,8% 17,6% -22,08 3,00 18,91 2,36 19,50 1,69 -7,2% -13,6% 0,00 0,0%
NIS 2016-09 974,2 740,00 -0,5% 0,0% 45,4% 10,63 0,62 3,64 1,19 6,33 2,87 3,1% 5,9% 24,69 3,3% OMV Petrom 2016-09 3.598,9 0,29 0,4% 9,6% 17,2% -20,18 0,61 3,61 1,02 3,20 0,05 -1,9% -3,0% 0,00 0,0% Romgaz 2016-09 2.328,9 27,20 3,2% 8,8% 14,3% 11,24 1,12 6,52 2,28 4,50 -1,37 9,1% 10,0% 2,70 9,9%
Nuclearelectrica 2016-09 390,5 5,83 11,0% 21,3% 1,4% 21,77 0,24 2,90 1,01 2,70 -0,14 0,9% 1,1% 0,33 5,7%
Pharma
Krka 2016-09 1.716,7 52,35 0,1% -1,0% -14,8% 16,32 1,22 6,56 1,44 6,69 -0,23 5,8% 7,5% 2,65 5,1%
Galenika Fito. 2016-06 57,5 2.700,00 0,0% -0,7% 22,6% 7,48 1,05 17,48 1,36 4,99 -1,71 12,4% 14,0% 80,00 3,0%
Sopharma 2016-09 231,3 3,36 -0,4% 12,6% 26,9% 13,80 0,98 2,72 0,73 6,19 1,83 3,9% 7,1% 0,07 2,1%
Construction
Ingra 2016-09 6,9 3,83 2,1% 25,2% 33,0% 0,64 0,57 -2,02 11,01 3,60 3,32 9,0% 89,6% 0,00 0,0% Tehnika 2016-09 16,4 650,00 -0,9% 41,2% 149,0% -32,87 0,40 -4,30 0,78 13,51 9,54 -0,4% -1,2% 0,00 0,0% IGH 2016-09 20,1 245,39 1,0% 36,1% 153,0% -2,28 10,16 11,78 3,92 -10,61 -7,87 -10,5% -446,0% 0,00 0,0% Viadukt 2016-09 23,6 387,65 0,0% 26,3% 46,3% -42,79 0,50 6,98 0,45 4,51 2,07 -0,4% -1,2% 0,00 0,0% Hidroelektra 2016-09 3,2 38,37 0,0% 0,2% 42,2% -0,32 -0,20 -1,22 0,85 -1,56 -1,18 -27,7% n/a 0,00 0,0% Dalekovod 2016-09 49,1 14,89 -3,0% 9,6% 20,9% 22,25 1,06 6,34 0,86 9,56 6,00 1,0% 4,8% 0,00 0,0% Energoprojekt 2016-06 112,9 1.279,00 -1,9% -10,6% 40,5% 13,46 0,72 14,23 0,39 5,35 -0,51 2,4% 5,3% 20,00 1,6%
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 7 InterCapital.hr IC.trader IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Regional Equity Market; Fundamentals of Selected Companies
Selected Equity Fundamentals (Trailing Basis) & Performance
Company Change Fundamental indicators
Last M. Cap EV / Net debt availab. FS ( EURm) Last price Day YTD 1Y P/E P/BV P/CFO EV/S EBITDA / EBITDA ROA (%) ROE (%) Dividend Div. Yld
Tourism
Liburnia Riviera 2016-09 146,4 3.625,88 0,2% -1,2% -7,1% -209,34N/A 1,40 11,34 4,35 9,47 0,42 -0,5% -0,7% 0,00 0,0% Valamar Riviera 2016-09 654,4 38,91 0,1% 12,5% 70,8% 18,92 2,13 8,92 3,92 11,19 1,51 6,4% 11,3% 0,60 1,5% HUP Zagreb 2016-09 161,9 2.809,32 0,0% 0,4% 49,6% 16,24 1,52 15,51 4,40 10,42 1,05 6,4% 9,4% 15,00 0,5% Maistra 2016-09 365,5 250,25 -0,4% -1,1% 18,6% 19,26 1,73 8,35 3,65 9,88 2,26 5,2% 9,0% 0,00 0,0% Turisthotel 2016-09 156,6 3.200,00 0,0% 8,5% 28,0% 15,00 3,09 11,83 4,93 10,60 -1,58 16,0% 20,6% 45,00 1,4% Plava Laguna 2016-09 430,4 5.903,58 -0,1% 7,3% 37,5% 13,16 1,53 8,37 3,42 8,87 0,38 7,6% 11,6% 0,00 0,0% Arenaturist 2016-09 147,3 505,74 0,6% 7,9% 57,1% 38,26 1,37 9,55 3,72 11,74 3,33 1,9% 3,6% 0,00 0,0% Albena 2016-09 134,4 61,50 -0,2% 0,1% 28,7% 68,58 0,61 18,61 3,26 12,95 2,49 0,7% 0,9% 0,45 0,7%
Shipping
Atlantska Plov. 2016-09 59,9 321,83 0,8% 13,9% 188,6% -2,68 0,76 10,18 5,07 -19,51 -13,52 -9,2% -28,2% 0,00 0,0% Jadroplov 2016-09 9,7 44,31 0,0% 8,8% 140,6% -0,45 0,21 -0,99 9,75 -5,00 -4,25 -19,9% -47,8% 0,00 0,0% Uljanik Plovidba 2016-09 12,7 164,01 0,0% 2,5% 24,3% -0,18 2,92 0,32 6,99 -3,38 -3,12 -40,2% -1593,2% 0,00 0,0% TNG 2016-09 94,3 80,96 3,8% 7,9% 15,7% 16,17 1,14 6,49 5,79 11,75 5,86 3,1% 7,0% 3,95 4,9%
Telecommunications
HT 2016-09 1.902,3 174,09 0,0% 3,0% 24,8% 14,73 1,20 6,25 1,53 3,91 -1,36 6,9% 8,1% 6,00 3,4% Telekom Slo. 2016-09 511,7 78,30 -0,7% 10,1% 8,7% 26,75 0,73 2,61 1,26 4,60 1,95 1,4% 2,7% 5,00 6,4%
Infrastructure
Luka Ploce 2016-09 31,9 564,50 0,2% -1,1% -8,4% -12,00 0,59 -22,54 0,29 -3,81 13,67 -4,6% -4,9% 0,00 0,0% Luka Rijeka 2016-09 85,5 47,55 0,0% -0,8% 19,6% -420,10 0,93 -45,70 3,39 -335,22 101,41 -0,2% -0,2% 0,00 0,0% Luka Koper 2016-09 367,5 26,25 0,1% 5,0% 15,4% 9,50 1,13 5,61 2,48 6,52 1,66 8,1% 11,9% 1,13 4,3% Aerodrom N.T. 2016-09 304,5 1.100,00 0,0% -4,8% 20,7% 10,57 1,39 10,88 4,45 7,68 -1,00 12,2% 13,1% 60,25 5,5%
Food
Viro 2016-09 70,3 380,16 -2,0% -0,7% 27,1% -51,50 1,28 -4,53 0,97 12,83 5,62 -0,8% -2,5% 0,00 0,0%
Jamnica 2016-09 423,9 143.562,50 -0,3% 3,2% 36,7% 9,50 1,67 7,10 0,82 5,90 -2,07 11,0% 17,5% 2.197,00 1,5% Cakovecki Mlin. 2016-09 89,7 6.400,00 -2,3% -0,9% 28,0% 12,57 1,11 6,43 0,49 6,48 -1,32 6,1% 8,8% 60,00 0,9% Kras 2016-09 100,6 548,65 0,3% 1,7% 9,9% 37,52 1,23 12,14 0,90 11,04 1,93 1,7% 3,3% 0,00 0,0% Ledo 2016-09 442,8 10.569,85 -1,8% -0,9% 17,8% 11,05 1,70 10,80 1,14 6,40 -1,69 10,9% 15,3% 425,01 4,0% Belje 2016-09 26,3 23,96 -0,2% 2,7% 3,7% -4,36 0,10 1,42 0,90 9,69 8,33 -1,2% -2,3% 0,00 0,0% Atlantic Grupa 2016-09 415,1 932,86 -0,2% 5,5% 15,2% 12,65 1,50 14,16 0,94 9,11 3,31 4,6% 11,9% 13,50 1,4% Sojaprotein 2016-06 76,8 639,00 0,2% 3,4% -28,6% 23,39 0,80 112,01 0,89 11,40 4,28 1,6% 3,4% 0,00 0,0%
Retail
Tisak 2016-09 51,0 160,00 0,0% 3,2% -11,1% 41,91 1,47 13,91 0,07 2,42 -2,03 0,9% 3,5% 0,00 0,0% Medika 2016-09 70,9 17.600,00 0,0% 2,4% 39,9% 8,92 1,19 -15,21 0,30 10,36 3,50 2,7% 13,4% 0,00 0,0% Mercator 2016-09 411,2 67,51 0,0% -0,7% -17,7% -160,37 0,64 8,10 0,51 12,14 8,27 -0,1% -0,4% 0,00 0,0% Petrol 2016-09 680,1 326,00 0,0% 0,3% 27,8% 9,19 1,17 8,08 0,30 7,70 3,00 5,2% 12,7% 12,60 3,9%
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 8 InterCapital.hr IC.trader IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Regional Equity Market; Fundamentals of Selected Companies
Selected Equity Fundamentals (Trailing Basis) & Performance
Company Change Fundamental indicators
Last M. Cap EV / Net debt availab. FS ( EURm) Last price Day YTD 1Y P/E P/BV P/CFO EV/S EBITDA / EBITDA ROA (%) ROE (%) Dividend Div. Yld
Diversified
Adris Grupa 2016-09 1.186,6 471,11 -0,2% 3,2% 36,7% -10,32 0,88 -39,73 1,49 n/a n/a -4,3% -8,5% 15,00 3,2% Podravka 2016-09 364,7 383,87 0,8% 1,2% 21,2% 6,53 0,95 5,05 0,89 7,77 2,31 8,2% 14,6% 7,00 1,8% Industrial Capital 2016-09 34,8 4,37 0,0% 0,0% 35,8% 5,16 0,55 3,45 0,23 1,63 -1,00 9,1% 10,6% 0,00 0,0% Industrial Hold. 2016-09 43,3 1,10 6,3% 7,4% 31,9% -7,37 0,30 5,18 2,09 19,28 10,77 -2,6% -4,0% 0,00 0,0% Stara Planina 2016-09 72,8 6,78 2,0% 4,5% 85,8% 8,33 0,87 5,35 0,56 3,45 -1,30 8,7% 10,4% 0,21 3,0% Holding Varna 2016-09 87,0 32,50 8,1% -1,5% 42,9% 253,22 0,92 13,83 6,45 34,91 17,52 0,2% 0,4% 0,00 0,0% Chimimport 2016-09 210,4 1,72 0,4% 2,8% 28,0% 7,00 0,26 2,21 N/A N/A N/A 0,7% 3,7% 0,00 0,0% Eurohold 2016-09 40,4 0,62 4,2% -5,1% -7,5% -0,89 0,57 1,70 N/A N/A N/A -8,4% -63,9% 0,00 0,5%
Stock Exchange
BVB 2016-09 50,8 29,80 -0,7% 2,8% 13,3% 34,19 2,15 7,25 3,17 14,95 -19,05 3,0% 6,3% 0,87 2,9%
Change Fundamental indicators
Last Disc. to Disc. to Disc. to availab. FS M. Cap Last price Day YTD 1Y P/E P/BV NAVPS NAV (curr) NAV (1Y) NAV (3Y) ROA(%) ROE(%) Dividend Div. Yld
Funds / REIT's
Fondul Propriet. 2016-09 2.095,0 0,86 0,0% 8,2% 29,0% 21,53 0,83 1,14 -24,9% -23,7% -26,8% 3,9% 3,9% 0,05 5,8%
Bulgarian REIT 2016-09 23,2 2,25 0,0% -0,7% 37,9% 32,55 0,66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,8% 2,0% 0,00 0,0%
Adv. Terra. REIT 2016-09 92,6 2,13 -0,1% 1,8% 3,8% 23,33 0,81 N/A N/A N/A N/A 3,3% 3,5% 0,10 4,7%
Change Fundamental indicators
Last M. Cap Loans vs. NII / NF&CI / availab. FS (EURm) Last price Day YTD 1Y P/E P/BV Leverage Deposits assets assets ROA(%) ROE(%) Dividend Div. Yld
Banks
ZABA 2016-09 2.499,9 58,50 0,1% 8,3% 60,6% 11,30 1,02 6,89 91,2% 2,7% 1,0% 1,3% 9,0% 0,00 0,0% PBZ 2016-09 2.036,3 800,00 1,7% 4,0% 43,6% 9,81 1,08 5,72 85,1% 3,2% 1,6% 1,9% 11,0% 10,16 1,3% AIK Banka 2016-06 144,0 1.800,00 0,0% 2,9% -2,1% 3,79 0,32 3,21 78,1% 4,0% 0,5% 2,6% 8,5% 0,00 0,0% Komercijalna B. 2016-06 240,0 1.720,00 1,8% -1,0% 10,1% -2,85 0,49 7,18 56,5% 3,3% 1,2% -2,4% -17,3% 63,00 3,7% Banca Transil. 2016-09 1.903,4 2,35 3,1% -1,5% 24,2% 10,08 1,57 8,82 71,0% 4,6% 0,0% 1,8% 15,6% 0,39 16,6% BRD 2016-09 1.768,0 11,42 2,0% -3,9% 11,3% 11,17 1,19 7,48 76,5% 3,1% 1,6% 1,4% 10,6% 0,32 2,8% CCB 2016-09 93,1 1,61 1,1% 5,2% 57,8% 4,74 0,47 13,07 55,3% 2,3% 0,9% 0,8% 9,9% 0,00 0,0% FIB 2016-09 216,5 3,85 1,0% 14,9% 75,0% 5,53 0,52 10,71 67,3% 3,6% 1,0% 0,9% 9,3% 0,00 0,0%
Last M. Cap Combined Net availab. FS (EURm) Last price Day YTD 1Y P/E P/BV P/GWP Leverage Ratio margin ROA(%) ROE(%) Dividend Div. Yld
Insurance
Sava Re 2016-09 253,2 14,71 -0,6% 11,2% 18,9% 7,7 0,9 0,5 5,7 91,5% 6,1% 2,0% 11,1% 0,80 5,4%
Triglav 2016-09 557,8 24,54 -1,1% 5,8% 3,5% 9,1 0,8 0,6 4,9 94,3% 5,5% 1,7% 8,4% 2,50 10,2%
CO 2016-09 318,6 5.550,00 0,0% 0,0% -4,8% 14,8 0,9 0,8 4,1 100,2% 4,9% 1,5% 6,4% 0,00 0,0%
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 9 InterCapital.hr IC.trader IC MARKET ESPRESSO
InterCapital Research Coverage Universe
Overview of Investment Recommendations
Last Recommend- Company Target price Last price Difference Investment Thesis Analyst research ation
- weak revenue growth potential Hrvatski 29 January - dividend player BUY 160,95 174,09 -7,5% - profitability above peer Đivo Pulitika Telekom 2016 - low level of debt group's average
- divesting as a profitability Podravka 31 July UNDER - large share of foreign sales 383,87 -100,0% growth opportunity Đivo Pulitika Group 2015 REVIEW - substantial cost-cutting potential - moderate level of debt
Common Common 592 2,0% - strong cash position - further restructuring and economic 20 December HOLD 604,00 Adris Group - large investments in tourism portfolio recovery expected to propel the insurance Đivo Pulitika 2016 Preferred Preferred 471,11 8,7% expected to increase RevPAR and returns business BUY 512,00
- growing presence in Eastern - high return on equity Ericsson 11 May SELL 1017,10 1.248,54 -18,5% European markets - largest dividend yield Đivo Pulitika Nikola Tesla 2015 - dependence on telco investments on Croatian market
- majority stake owned by Končar 03 August - foreign markets as an opportunity BUY 786,87 750,00 4,9% the government Đivo Pulitika Group 2015 - high dependence on government deals - profit margin presssure
- strong presence in the region - best in the class standards of corporate Atlantic 11 July BUY 954,34 932,86 2,3% - diversified product portfolio and vertically governance Đivo Pulitika Grupa 2016 integrated business mode - continuing profitability improvements
- strong fundamentals 7 January UNDER - exposure to new markets (Russia) Krka Group 52,35 -100,0% - continuing sales growth Đivo Pulitika 2015 REVIEW - dual listing in Warsaw despite crisis effects
23 February STRONG - stable cash flow - ownership restructuring Petrol Group 350,06 326,00 7,4% Đivo Pulitika 2016 BUY - high level of debt - strong retail player
- stable dividend payment - consolidation of suppliers in the AD Plastik 14 July UNDER 139,99 -100,0% - Edison projekt and recovery in Europe automotive industry Đivo Pulitika Group 2015 REVIEW - presence in Russia - exposure to cyclic automotive sector
Group - stable structure of debt 1 October - restructuring of operations in progress Telekom BUY 89,32 78,30 14,1% - risk of permanent competitive Đivo Pulitika 2015 - risk of a large number of litigations Slovenije pressure on prices
- leading regional insurer - attractive dividend yield Triglav 3 May HOLD 28,58 24,54 16,5% - potential for further expansion - Standard & Poor’s "A-" rating Đivo Pulitika Group 2016 in Ex-Yu countries with stable outlook
- lack of transparency - attractive valuation in relation to peers NIS 9 September - macroeconomic pressures SELL 538,68 740,00 -27,2% - high domestic market share Đivo Pulitika Group 2015 - dependence on oil prices - potential for development outside Serbia and refining margins
- one of the largest hospitality groups - potential expansion of the Valamar 21 September UNDER 38,91 -100,0% - multi-destination portfolio in key Adriatic accommodation portfolio via M&A Đivo Pulitika Riviera 2015 REVIEW regions, Istria and Dubrovnik - dependence on tourism development
- quality brand/product portfolio - lack of economies of scale Gorenje 17 November STRONG 4,90 6,32 -22,5% - strong position on Ex-Yu markets - dependence on input prices as well as Đivo Pulitika Group 2015 BUY - strategic alliance with Panasonic currency translation differences
- possible asset play Tankerska - dislocation of refineries 24 August - stable earnings due to time charters Next HOLD 65,00 80,96 -19,7% - experienced fleet manager Đivo Pulitika 2016 - complete exposure to a single market - attractive cost structure compared to peers Generation segment
- attractive valuation compared to peer port - historically inconsistent strategy related to 13 October operators often changes in management Luka Koper BUY 25,66 26,25 -2,2% Đivo Pulitika 2015 - recovery of regional economies and their - future capacities rely on strong CAPEX and trade with the rest of the world Slovenia's investments in railway
-successful integration of Zavarovalnica -possible interest rate hikes Sava Re 30 November STRONG Maribor 17,22 14,71 17,1% -absence of major loss events pushes up Đivo Pulitika Group 2015 BUY -growth opportunities in the regional results for now insurance markets
-managed by Franklin Templeton, a top class -about 60% of the fund's NAV is made by Fondul 23 March STRONG fund management company unlisted companies 0,99 0,86 15,1% Đivo Pulitika Proprietatea 2016 BUY -high exposure to energy sector -possible privatizations of portfolio -significant discount to NAV companies
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 10 InterCapital.hr IC.trader IC MARKET ESPRESSO
InterCapital Group
About us
InterCapital is an independent investment company established in 2001, and is one of the leading companies for trading of financial instruments, asset management and investment banking services in the Republic of Croatia.
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InterCapital Securities is the top fixed income trader according to bond trading volume on Zagreb Stock Exchange fourteen years in a row. Services offered by the company include market making on Croatian government bonds, as well as trading Croatian, Serbian, Slovenian, Romanian and Bulgarian fixed income instruments. Our specialties also encompass research services covering MM and FI markets (both domestic and international), providing expert opinions and developing trading ideas in close cooperation with our clients.
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Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 11 InterCapital.hr IC.trader IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Disclaimer
Notice to Investors and Explanation of Investment Recommendations
„IC Market Espresso“ is a Recommendation that proposes investment strategy in terms of one or more financial instruments or the Issuer of financial instruments, including opinions about current or future value and price of these instruments. Market Espresso is published every workday. The first issue was published on 2 January 2008, while the technical analysis of Croatian equities and index was introduced on 1 September 2008. Information in this report is intended for informative purposes only and does not represent the solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or participate in any particular trading strategy.
Market Espresso is based on publicly available information (Stock Exchanges, Bloomberg, financial reports of Issuers, companies' management, business and other websites). Although we believe our information and price quotes to be reasonably reliable, we do no guarantee their accuracy or completeness. In addition, the price or value of financial instruments described in this report may fluctuate and realize gains or losses. InterCapital Securities Ltd. does not assume responsibility for any damage caused by the use of published information and projections contained in this report Opinions in this report constitute the current judgement of the author/s as of date of this report and are subject to change without notice.
Recommendations in IC Market Espresso are based on fundamental analysis and instruments and rules of technical analysis. Technical analysis is a valuation method of financial instruments made by analysing statistically generated market activities such as historical prices and trading volumes. Technical analysis usually uses various types of graphical displays, on the basis of which special techniques try to predict future trends. The main task of technical analysis is to attempt to identify historical price movements and accordingly identify possible future trends.
Fundamental analysis is a financial analysis of industries and companies based on factors such as sales, assets, profit, products or services, markets and management. In conducting fundamental analysis, InterCapital Securities Ltd. uses various methods to determine a value of the Issuer. Among the rest, analysis of comparable companies, discounted cash flow and other methods are being used. Although InterCapital Securities Ltd. uses models generally accepted in the financial industry and theory, the results of these models depend on plans and information obtained from the Issuer as well as subjective opinions of analysts.
The authors of technical and fundamental analyses in IC Market Espresso are Đivo Pulitika, Margareta Maresić and Marcel Dimač. They are employees of InterCapital Securities Ltd. registered in Zagreb, Masarykova 1. InterCapital Securities Ltd. is supervised by Croatian Financial Services Supervisory Agency (HANFA).
Fundamental rating values of an Issuer are given according to the following scale:
•Strong buy - equities with expected absolute revenue of more than 20% in the monitored time period •Buy - equities with expected absolute return of 10%-20% in the monitored time period •Hold - equities with expected absolute return of -10% to 10% in the monitored time period •Sell - equities with expected absolute return below -10% in the monitored time period •Under review - an issuer might be placed Under Review due to new information which is not included in the analysis.
Up to August 14, 2014 the Hold recommendation was used for equities with an expected return of 0% to 10%, while the Sell recommendation was used for equities with an expected negative absolute return. Criteria for other recommendation remained unchanged.
4Q 2016 (1 October - 31 December 2016) Companies which InterCapital Securities Number Share Ltd. provided investment banking service within last 12 months Strong Buy 4 21.1% - Buy 6 31.6% ATGR-R-A Hold 3 15.8% - Sell 2 10.5% - Under Review 4 21.1% ADPL-R-A
InterCapital Securities Ltd. is in possession of the following equities:
Analysts engaged in creation of IC Market Espresso and/or related persons are not in possession of significant financial interests in one or more financial instruments which are subject to recommendation or significant conflicts of interest in relation to any of the issuers in accordance with Article 475 of the Capital Market Act.
The company InterCapital Securities Ltd. acts as a market maker for ADPLRA ZA, PODRRA ZA, HTRA ZA, KOEIRA ZA, TPNGRA ZA, ATGRRA ZA and RIVPRA ZA.
Issuer recommendations stated in IC Daily - Market Espresso are not declared to the Issuer before they are published. In the last 12 months period InterCapital Securities Ltd. served as a listing agent for the TPNGRA ZA shares on the Official market of the Zagreb Stock Exchange. Inc.
Any investments indicated in the report constitute risk, are not readily available in all jurisdictions, can be illiquid and may not be suitable for all investors. Value or income realized on any one investment mentioned in the report may vary. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investor's currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Investors must make their own informed investment decisions without depending on this Recommendation. Only investors with sufficient knowledge and expertise in financial dealings who are able to evaluate risk and return may consider investing in any form of securities or markets indicated herein.
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