Issue 50: June 2019

Promoting a more transparent and accountable NATO

www.natowatch.org NATO Watch Observatory In this edition: No. 50 (January - May 2019) NATO Watch Essay: NATO’s new Military Strategy and Space Policy: Why are parliamentarians and the public being kept out of the loop? 3 Published by NATO Watch News, Commentary & Reports: Gairloch, Scotland - Arms Control & Disarmament: the IV212DS INF Treaty 6 - Book Review 8 Email: - Climate Change 8 - Collective Defence 8 Editor: Dr. Ian Davis - Cyber Security, Information Warfare & Hybrid Threats 9 Welcome to NATO Watch’s quarterly - Defence Budgets & Procurement 10 Observatory: the only online publication - Energy Security 12 dedicated entirely to news and independent - Enlargement & Partnerships 12 commentary on NATO policy-making and - Australia; Azerbaijan; Belarus; Bosnia operational activities. The clips are drawn Herzegovina; Brazil; China-NATO relations; from a wide range of subscriptions, feeds Colombia; Egypt; EU-NATO relations; and alerts covering a substantial part of the Finland; Georgia; Israel; Jordan; Kuwait; Mediterranean Dialogue; New Zealand; major English language newspapers and North Macedonia; Policy; Science for Peace other periodicals worldwide. and Security Programme; Serbia; Sweden; Tunisia; Ukraine; UN-NATO relations NATO Watch - Intelligence 19 conducts independent monitoring and - Maritime Security 19 analysis of NATO and aims to increase - Military Exercises 19 transparency, stimulate parliamentary - Missile Defence 20 engagement and broaden public awareness - Munich Security Conference 21 and participation in a progressive reform - NATO @ 70 21 agenda within NATO. - NATO Defence Ministers Meeting 23 - NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting 23 - NATO Military Committee – new Military Strategy 23 - NATO Parliamentary Assembly 24 - NATO Summit 24 - Nuclear Weapons 24 - Operations and Missions 26 - Afghanistan; Kosovo; Libya - President Trump and NATO 28 - Russia-NATO relations 28 - Secretary General’s Annual Report 30 - Special Forces 30 - Transparency, Accountability and Good Governance 31 Copyright © NATO Watch, 2019. Some rights reserved. - Women, Peace and Security 31 This publication is made available under a Creative Security News from NATO Commons BY-NC-ND 3.0 licence, which allows copy and distribution for non-profit use, provided the Member States 31 authors and NATO Watch are attributed properly and - Albania; Belgium; Bulgaria; Canada; the text is not altered in any way. All citations must be Czech Republic; Denmark; Estonia; credited to NATO Watch and/or the original sources. France; Germany; Hungary; Iceland; Italy; Latvia; Lithuania; Montenegro; Norway; Poland; Spain; Turkey; UK; USA adapts. We continue to revise and review NATO Watch Essay: the threats we face, as allies. Today, our

Alliance faces enduring challenges from NATO’s new Military Strategy and all strategic directions; state and non- Space Policy: Why are state; military forces; and terrorist, parliamentarians and the public cyber and hybrid. Against this being kept out of the loop? background, the NATO Chiefs of Defence decided in 2017 to task the Military By Dr Ian Davis, NATO Watch Authorities to review our existing

strategy. On the 22 May 2019, the twenty-nine NATO Chiefs of Defence came together To create a common understanding of in Brussels to discuss and sign-off on the threats and challenges was NATO’s new Military Strategy. At a developed, and through consensus, this press conference on the 28 May, strategy was produced with each following a meeting of the North member, each ally, being an equal Atlantic Council with national security partner. Therefore, we now have that advisers, NATO Secretary General Jens handrail to guide us and to enable us to deliver our core business to defend Stoltenberg said the alliance would almost 1 billion people. This works adopt its first space policy in June. guides our other work and I would Neither document is in the public particularly like to thank the nations, domain. the staff who have helped this come together today. It brings coherence. NATO’s new Military Strategy Peach was asked during the Q&A According to the brief statement session with journalists after the released by NATO, the new Military meeting whether the strategy would be Strategy “marks an important step in published and if he could provide an adapting the alliance for the outline as to its content. He replied: increasingly complex security challenges that NATO faces”. In his We don’t intend to publish it, in opening remarks Air Chief Marshal Sir accordance with long-standing practice Stuart Peach (UK Air Force), Chairman within the alliance. And in terms of the of the NATO Military Committee—the outline, the content as you would expect senior military authority in the is a traditional military strategy, but in very much a modern format. And we alliance—said: have worked on the document—and it is The Military Strategy provides a document, I can confirm that—but I overarching guidance, outlining how the am not going to go into details as to its alliance effectively deters and defends content.

and helps shape our future plans. It will Some further details emerged when the be a handrail which guides our decision making process and provides coherence Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff to our overall efforts. We cannot predict Gen. Joseph Dunford addressed a the future, but this strategy and the roundtable discussion at the Brookings strategic thinking that goes with it Institution on the 29 May. Apparently, provided by you gives a level of guidance the new Military Strategy is due to be to what we could do depending on the approved by the respective defence circumstances presented to us. We’ll ministries of the member states in the then give additional guidance on how to coming weeks. “It is the first NATO go forward as this will become a living military strategy in decades, … It clearly document. articulates the challenges that confront In his closing press statement Peach NATO [and] it provides the framework said: for the various plans that will be in place if deterrence fails”, he added. We have, today, agreed a Military Strategy. This is the first time for many While details of the new Military years, we have done so and it is part of Strategy are still unknown, it seems NATO’s adaptation process. NATO 3 likely that the alliance is simply falling While China is unlikely to feature so in line with recent updates to US prominently in the new NATO Military military doctrine. Washington updated Strategy, Russia undoubtedly will. Not its National Security Strategy in 2017, only has the traditional Russian military National Defence Strategy (NDS) and threat been actively espoused by senior Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) in 2018, NATO officials to justify a whole raft of and Missile Defense Review in early measures to enhance its deterrence 2019. All of these documents were and defence posture in recent years, published in full, with the exception of the alliance has also been exploring the US NDS, for which only an ways of countering what it sees as unclassified summary was released. Moscow’s covert influence and NATO’s new strategy document is destabilization operations. It is unclear probably just a consolidation of US to what extent the new NATO Military military doctrine plus some window Strategy will change the balance of the dressing. However, since it is not current mix of nuclear, conventional publicly available it is impossible to and missile defence capabilities that assess (a) how closely it mirrors recent make-up the collective defence US changes in military doctrine, and (b) posture. whether it diverges from the 2010 With regard to nuclear weapons, for Strategic Concept—NATO’s most example, the new US NPR sets out recently agreed statement on core expanded scenarios for the possible values, tasks and principles, the use of nuclear weapons against non- evolving security environment and nuclear threats, including cyber strategic objectives for the next threats. It also identifies a plan to decade. develop new ‘low-yield’ warheads for Following the US lead? its submarine-launched ballistic missiles and new ground-launched The new US NDS refocused on the cruise missiles. The US NPR contends possibility of war with China and/or that this capability would strengthen Russia, marking a shift from the last 15 nuclear deterrence, while critics argue years’ focus on fighting transnational it would lower the nuclear threshold terrorist groups. “Great-power and increase the risk of nuclear war. competition—not terrorism—is now the primary focus of US national security”, Although the NATO Secretary General the then US Defense Secretary Jim has said that the alliance has no Mattis said in a speech unveiling the intention to deploy new nuclear new strategy in January last year. missiles in Europe following the Similarly, at a meeting of NATO foreign collapse of the INF Treaty, there are ministers in Washington in April that plenty of US (and a few European) marked the 70th anniversary of the voices calling for NATO to deploy new alliance, US Secretary of State Mike nonstrategic and lower yield nuclear Pompeo urged allies to work together weapons or to adapt nuclear deterrence to confront a wide variety of emerging to play a larger role in NATO’s collective threats from Russia and China. "We defence. must adapt our alliance to confront The timing of the announcement of a emerging threats ... whether that's new NATO Space Policy also suggests Russian aggression, uncontrolled that this is a reaction to US-led migration, cyberattacks, threats to developments. At his May press energy security, Chinese strategic conference, Stoltenberg said, "We are competition, including technology and now also working on an overarching 5G ... [or] many other issues", Pompeo space policy, another first for NATO. said. And next month, I expect NATO defence ministers will adopt our new

4 space policy". He added that NATO also substantive and prior parliamentary needed to strengthen the resilience of discussion of key documents such as its telecommunication networks, 5G, these represents woefully inadequate undersea cables and space assets. oversight.

However, the United States was clearly In the second decade of the twenty-first first with its own ‘first’. In June 2018, century, surely it should be a NATO- President Trump announced that he wide norm for any significant policy had directed the Pentagon to establish document, international treaty or a Space Force, describing it as a sixth agreement—that is, one that impinges branch of the US military. It would be on human rights and fundamental the first time the Pentagon has stood freedoms, transfers sovereignty, up a new service since the Air Force requires the passing of a law, or carries received its independence after World the possibility of the deployment of War II. In August, Vice President Mike armed force abroad—to always require Pence outlined some of the concrete consent from member states’ steps needed to create the US Space parliaments, thereby giving the people Force, which is expected to be vaguely a direct say in the external activities of modelled on the US Special Operations the state, including key developments Command, within alliances. bringing in Parliaments personnel from should have a all branches. role in There will also examining all be a Space decisions about Development the negotiation Agency to of treaties and streamline multilateral hardware accords, procurement including and innovation. determination Where is the of objectives, oversight? negotiating positions, the Given the parameters importance of within which the national delegation NATO’s new Military Strategy and Space Policy—and their likely shaping by US can operate and the final decision as to military interests—both documents whether to sign and ratify. This should ought to be subjected to close scrutiny. not be the exclusive reserve of defence ministries and their ministers. Without Oversight mechanisms help to ensure such certainty of process, NATO policy that the right questions are asked development lacks authority and about strategy and the objectives of credibility. At a minimum, a any military preparations before the parliamentary mechanism or price becomes too high, both in terms committee should exist in each of costly and unnecessary military member state to consider alliance procurement and in destabilising policy documents, tabled treaties or international relations. While there may international instruments. be a case for allowing government officials in defence ministries to discuss finer points in private, not least to enable consensus building around some of the more contentious issues, the lack of time set aside for

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News, Commentary and US is unable to counter because it is bound by the INF Treaty. Reports: In 2018, the US administration

announced plans to develop a low-yield Arms Control & Disarmament: the warhead for the Trident D-5 submarine- INF Treaty launched ballistic missile and a nuclear- In February, the United States armed, sea-launched cruise missile, announced that it has started the calling those options “important for the process to withdraw from the preservation of credible deterrence Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces against regional aggression”. The (INF) Treaty, unless Russia destroys a Pentagon also could deploy a new new class of medium-range missiles ground-launched cruise missile or that US officials allege are larger intermediate-range missiles. noncompliant. Critics warned it could In response to the US decision, Russian spark a dangerous new arms race with President Vladimir Putin threatened to Moscow and a return to the nuclear aim new hypersonic missiles at the tensions of the Cold War. United States if it deploys further

US-Russian discussions in Geneva in missile systems to Europe. NATO January failed to reach a compromise Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg despite Moscow’s offer to allow the announced that NATO is exploring United States to inspect the disputed ways to counter Russia’s violations of missile. The US decision starts a six- the treaty, while ruling out new month countdown to formal treaty deployment of land-based nuclear withdrawal on 1 August 2019. systems in Europe.

The decision had been expected— Some NATO allies are uneasy about President Trump warned in October keeping US missiles capable of carrying 2018 that he would pull out if Russia nuclear warheads on their territory, didn’t comply—and is consistent with although Poland may be willing to host his ‘America First’ strategy, which has US missiles. already seen the United States pull out In March, Russia also suspended its of the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris participation in the INF Treaty “until the climate accord. US ends its violations of the treaty or

The INF Treaty banned all missiles with until it terminates”. a range between 500 and 5,500 INF treaty can be saved, political will kilometres. It protected the European needed for that, NATO chief says, TASS, 26 continent from those weapons, and May 2019 also banned US Pershing cruise missiles, which had been deployed by John Feffer, A Farewell to Arms Control? Foreign Policy in Focus, 1 May 2019 the US and Germany. Since 2014, the United States has accused Russia of Ulrich Kühn, The End of Conventional Arms violating the treaty, and Washington Control and the Role of US Congress, imposed sanctions intended to Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, 2019 pressure Russia into compliance. Russia denied violating the treaty but Bruno Hellendorff, Europe in a multipolar accused Washington of doing so with a missile world – Why the EU and NATO missile defence system deployed in should not try to salvage the INF Treaty, Europe. Egmont Paper 106, March 2019

US officials have also expressed Ulrich Kühn, Between a rock and a hard concern that China, anon-signatory to place: Europe in a post-INF world, The Nonproliferation Review 26, no. 1-2, 4 April the treaty, is deploying short- and 2019 medium-range missiles in Asia that the

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NATO Chief Urges Russia To Comply With to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, INF Treaty, Radio Free Europe/ Radio Press Release, 8 February 2019 Liberty, 1 March 2019 Lincoln Pigman, To Understand the INF As a Key Arms-Control Treaty Is Set to Die, Treaty’s Demise, Look to the US Republican Russia Threatens to Target U.S. with New Party, RUSI Commentary, 8 February 2019 Nukes, Popular Mechanics, 21 February Gustav Gressel, Russia, Germany, and the 2019 INF: Will Berlin break its silence? ECFR, 6 Piotr Buras, State of disunion: Europe, February 2019 NATO, and disintegrating arms control, Russia plans land-based intermediate ECRF Commentary, 28 February 2019 missiles in two years, The Guardian, 5 John Mecklin, How and why the US and February 2019 Russia should save the INF, Bulletin of the Russia blames NATO for dismantling INF Atomic Scientists, 19 February 2019 due to plans to deploy launchers to Poland, Simon Lunn and Nicholas Williams, The TASS, 4 February 2019 Demise of the INF Treaty: What are the Frank Sauer, Artificial Intelligence in the consequences for NATO? ELN Policy Brief, Armed Forces: On the need for regulation February 2019 regarding autonomy in weapon systems, No movement in Russian missile talks: German Federal Academy for Security NATO chief, France 24, 15 February 2019 Policy, Security Policy Working Paper No.

26/2018

The Western press has often treated the Rebecca Johnson, Who gains from Trump Russian claim that US missile defense trashing the INF Treaty - Putinand Lockheed installations have an offensive Martin!, openDemocray, 3 February 2019 capability as rhetorical obfuscation. But Russia follows US in suspending nuclear publicly available information makes it deal, The Guardian , 2 February 2019 clear that the US Aegis-based systems in Eastern Europe, if equipped with Donald Trump confirms US withdrawal cruise missiles, would indeed violate from INF nuclear treaty, The Guardian, 1 February 2019 the INF. Trump’s ‘terrible’ withdrawal from nuke Must Read: Theodore Postol, Russia may treaty poses three risks to the world: have violated the INF Treaty. Here’s how the Former NATO chief, Raw Story, 1 February United States appears to have done the 2019 same, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 14 February 2019 Timmon Wallis, Why We All Need the INF

Treaty, NuclearBan.US, 1 February 2019

NATO’s rhetoric about no new nuclear Susi Snyder, INF Suspension: Who benefits? missiles in Europe to counter Russia is PAX, 1 February 2019 unclear, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 14 February 2019 NATO Chief Urges Russia to Comply with Missile Pact, Military.com, 31 January 2019 NATO in search of options to prepare for post-INF world, EuroActiv, 14 February NATO: Russia's new missile lowers bar for 2019 the use of nuclear arms, CNBC, 24 January 2019 NATO is getting ready for a future where Russia has a lot more missiles after Trump US to begin nuclear treaty pullout next ditched a landmark treaty, Business Insider, month after Russia missile talks fail, The 13 February 2019 Guardian, 16 January 2019

Must Read: Reducing the Risks of NATO Chief: February Deadline ‘Last Conventional Deterrence in Europe Arms Chance’ for Russia to Comply With INF Control in the NATO-Russia Contact Zones, Treaty, Sputnik, 4 January 2019 OSCE Network, 2018

The United States Remains in Compliance with the INF Treaty, United States Mission

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Book Review sustain a stable maritime-security environment in European waters and Dagomar Degroot, Seeking solutions to Cold War divisions, in the mid-20th century beyond, to enable the free flow of NATO embraced environmentalism, international maritime trade, and to sciencemag, 1 January 2019: Reviewed protect global maritime infrastructure. ‘Greening the Alliance: The Diplomacy of The IISS assessed that European NATO NATO's Science and Environmental members would have to invest between Initiatives’, Simone Turchetti, University of US$94 billion and US$110bn to fill the Chicago Press, 2018 - the first book to capability gaps generated by this explain the surprising rise, repeated scenario. revision, and possible decline of NATO’s environmental research programme. The second scenario dealt with the defence of European NATO territory against a state-level military attack. In Climate Change this scenario, tensions between Russia Diplomats, military officers and experts and NATO members Lithuania and gathered at the Ministry of Foreign Poland escalate into war after the US Affairs in the Czech Republic in May to has left NATO. This war results in the discuss energy security and future Russian occupation of Lithuania and challenges facing NATO. While some Polish territory Invoking Article V, discussing what the alliance may be up the European members of NATO take against 70 years from now, some measures to deter further Russian argued that the impacts of climate aggression, and also prepare and change are likely to be the main threat. assemble forces for a military operation to restore Polish and Lithuanian NATO’s Biggest Long-Term Future Threat Is Climate Change, Suggests Expert. Radio government control over their Praha, 21 May 2019 territories. The IISS assesses that European NATO members would have to invest between US$288bn and Collective Defence US$357bn to fill the capability gaps

The International Institute for Strategic generated by this scenario. These Studies (IISS) published research in investments would establish a NATO April on what European defence would Europe force level that would likely look if the United States left NATO and allow it to prevail in a limited regional did not contribute militarily. The 50- war in Europe against a peer adversary. page study applies scenario analysis to If the funding to meet shortfalls were generate force requirements and available, the IISS assesses that the assesses the ability of NATO’s recapitalisation across the military European member states to meet these domains would take up to 20 years, requirements. with some significant progress around

The study explored two scenarios for the ten- and 15-year marks. The the development of events in the reasons for this are limited production absence of financial support from the capacity; the time it takes to decide on United States. The first scenario looked and then produce equipment and at the protection of the global sea lines weapons; recruitment and training of communication (SLOCs) and demands; and the time it takes for new assumed that the United States had units to reach an operational capability. withdrawn from NATO and also abandoned its global maritime Douglas Barrie, Ben Barry, Dr Lucie Béraud- Sudreau, Henry Boyd, Nick Childs and Dr presence and protection, not just for its Bastian Giegerich, Defending Europe: own national interest but also as an scenario-based capability requirements for international public good. It thus falls NATO’s European members, IISS, April to European countries to achieve and 2019

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Murielle Delaporte, NATO’s Strength: A cyber capabilities or offensive cyber Burden-sharing Success Story, Breaking into alliance operations and missions”, Defense, 20 March 2019 he said.

Can Kasapoğlu, Why and How NATO Should In January, Facebook deleted a number Adapt to a New Mediterranean Security of pages on its platform that were Environment, SWP Comment 2019/C 15, operated by Russian news agency March 2019 Sputnik and promoted anti-NATO Madeleine Moon, NATO's National sentiment in eastern European Resilience Obligations, RUSI Commentary, countries. In February, US Secretary of 15 March 2019 State Mike Pompeo warned central Wolf-Diether Roepke and Hasit Thankey, European states against using Resilience: the first line of defence, NATO equipment from Chinese telecom giant Review, 27 February 2019 Huawei, saying it could threaten US

Nato allies offer contributions for Four cooperation in those countries.

Thirties Readiness Initiative, Army Also in February, new research Technology, 18 February 2019 concluded that social media could be Paul Taylor, Jan Techau, Julian Lindley- used to not only find and target NATO French, Ulrike Franke, Ben Hodges, Paul forces, but also manipulate them. Cornish, Elisabeth Braw, Claudia Major, Researchers with NATO's Strategic Andrew Michta, Andreas Wittkowsky, Communications Center of Excellence Stephen Szabo, Anna Wieslander Judy Asks: used open source data, primarily social Is NATO Deterrence a Paper Tiger? Carnegie Europe, 31 January 2019 media, to successfully identify 150 soldiers, locate multiple battalions, Jonathan Hill, NATO – ready for anything? track troop movements, and even NATO Review, 24 January 2019 convince service members to leave Sara Bjerg Moller, Drawing the Line on U.S. their posts and engage in other Reassurance to Eastern Europe, Lawfare, 6 “undesirable behaviour” during a January 2019 military exercise.

In April, a French team of security Cyber Security, Information experts emerged the winner of a NATO- Warfare & Hybrid Threats backed “live-fire” cybersecurity

While NATO does not have its own exercise, Locked Shields, that involved cyber weapons, the alliance established nearly 1,200 cybersecurity experts an operations centre in August 2018 at competing in a red team-blue team its military hub in Mons, Belgium. engagement to defend a fictional Several member states have since country. The annual event is the world’s largest exercise of its kind. offered their cyber capabilities. The new NATO cyber operations centre The Tallinn-based NATO Cooperative (CYOC) is expected to be fully staffed Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence by 2023 and able to mount its own launched an interactive web-based cyber attacks. resource for legal professionals and

Although the alliance is still grappling students in May, called the Cyber Law with ground rules for doing so, it Toolkit. The toolkit was launched at the appears to be adopting a tough 11th Annual Conference on Cyber posture. In May, Secretary General Jens Conflict—or CyCon 2019—in Tallinn, Estonia, on 29 May. Stoltenberg told attendees at the Cyber Defence Pledge conference in London, An interactive cyber law toolkit launched in “We are not limited to respond in Tallinn, Estonian World, 30 May 2019 cyberspace when we are attacked in NATO to integrate offensive cyber cyberspace”. NATO members have capabilities of individual members, Fifth already “agreed to integrate national Domain, 29 May 2019

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National Security Advisers meet at NATO New publication from NATO's Rīga Headquarters, NATO News Release, 29 May StratCom center on cyber threats, LSM, 18 2019 February 2019

Patrick Tucker, NATO Getting More Christopher Porter and Klara Jordan, Don’t Aggressive on Offensive Cyber, Defense Let Cyber Attribution Debates Tear Apart One, 24 May 2019 the NATO Alliance, Lawfare, 14 February 2019 Secretary General gives keynote speech on NATO’s adaptation to cyber threats, NATO Inside NATO's cyber defence centre, Sky News Release, 23 May 2019 News, 12 February 2019

Ethan Williamson, NATO’s Expanding Role New NATO hub will gather the Alliance's in Cybersecurity, Charged Affairs, 13 May cyber defenders, NATO News Release, 12 2019 February 2019

Joel Rogers de Waal, The West Should Don Lewis, What is NATO really doing in Weaponise Embarrassment in the New Cyberspace? War on The Rocks, 4 February Information Wars, RUSI Commentary, 26 2019 April 2019 Responding to Cognitive Security France Wins NATO’s “Live Fire” Challenges, NATO Stratcom COE, January Cybersecurity Exercise, Computer Business 2019 Review, 17 April 2019 NATO battles for a place on the emoji NATO launches cyber-defense drill keyboard, The National, 29 January 2019 simulating elections under attack, Fifth NATO invests $422K toward a new Domain, 8 April 2019 international cybersecurity team, NATO team takes part in one of the world’s Concordia, 23 January 2019 most challenging cyber exercises, NATO Facebook takes down anti-NATO pages News Release, 8 April 2019 linked to Russia, The Hill, 17 January 2019 Matej Tonin (Slovenia) Rapporteur, Artificial Intelligence: Implications for NATO’S Armed Forces, Draft Report, NATO Defence Budgets, Procurement Parliamentary Assembly, Science and and Burden Sharing Technology Committee, Sub-Committee on Technology Trends and Security, 5 April The burden-sharing debate that 2019 dominated the NATO Summit in July 2018 (see NATO Watch Observatory No. Chris Demchak, We Need a NATO/EU for 48) continued to be a key background Cyber Defense, Defense One, 24 March issue in the first half of 2019. The 2019 annual publication by the International NATO Takes Huawei Security Concerns Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Seriously: Stoltenberg, Security Week, 15 Military Balance, showed that NATO's March 2019 27 European countries fell short of the NATO counters cyber threats with network two per cent target by $102 billion in collaboration, Shepherd Media, 25 February 2018, adding that European NATO 2019 members would "collectively have had

Researchers found and tracked NATO to increase their spending by 38 per troops and tricked them into disobeying cent" to hit the two percent target in orders for just $60, Task and Purpose, 19 2018. February 2019 In May, the NATO Communications and Matt Field, NATO researchers used social Information (NCI) Agency announced media to learn details of a military exercise that it is planning to issue bids for or and manipulate troops. It wasn’t very hard award contracts totalling 1.4 billion to do, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Euros in the next 18 months, as 19 February 2019 follows:

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Satellite communications (189 million NATO edges towards Trump's spending EUR) transmission services for space, demands, Germany lags, Reuters, 14 March ground and control resources to 2019 support NATO operations from 2020 to NATO launches innovation challenge to 2034; inventors and entrepreneurs, NATO News Release, 12 March 2019 Cyber security (129 million EUR) for refreshing and optimizing the security After NATO Funding Success, Trump Eyes technology for NATO’s More Defense Money from Allies, CBN News, 12 March 2019 communications and information systems; NATO Selects BlackBerry's Encrypted Voice Technology to Secure its Calls, PR Deployable Communications and Newswire, 12 March 2019 Information Systems (153.2 million EUR); Timo Kivimäki, Power, contribution and dependence in NATO burden sharing, Nuclear Command and Control European Security, Vol. 28 No.1, 2019, Services (15-to-20 million EUR) to pp.66-84 develop software and procure IT Steinar Brandslet, Are European NATO equipment, among other things; states freeloading? Science Nordic, 10

Chemical, Biological, Radiological March 2019 and Nuclear (CBRN) functional Industry conference brings business services (10 million EUR) to develop leaders together to learn about NATO software, replace certain ageing tools funding opportunities, NATO News and support command and control of Release, 21 February 2019

CBRN assets; and Cybèle Greenberg, Rethink 2%: NATO

Joint Intelligence, Surveillance and ‘Defense Spending’ Should Favor Cyber, Defense One, 21 February 2019 Reconnaissance (17 million EUR) to provide additional intelligence Disputes over defence budgets will collecting and sharing capabilities to continue to divide NATO, The Economist, 15 February 2019 NATO Commands. Europeans $100 billion short of NATO NATO Agency plans for 1.4 billion EUR in spending pledge: study, AFP, 15 February upcoming business opportunities, NCI 2019 Agency News Release, 20 May 2019 Jeremy Shapiro, America the Mercenary: US and NATO Radios Can't Talk to Each Trump’s plan to bill NATO, ECFR, 12 Other. The Air Force Wants to Change That, February 2019 Military.com, 26 April 2019 NATO to receive NASMDEF facility for soft- NATO helps Allies speed up sharing of kill countermeasures assessment, Jane’s weapons, NATO News Release, 27 March Navy International, 4 February 2019 2019 Allies receive new land munitions through Max Bergmann, To strengthen NATO, NATO project, NATO News Release, 31 Congress must help end its reliance on January 2019 Russian equipment, Defense One, 26 March 2019 NATO secures additional SALIS surge capability with Antonov, Janes Defence NATO to receive first Northrop surveillance Weekly, 14 January 2019 drone, years late, Reuters, 18 March 2019 Johannes Blum and Niklas Potrafke, Does a Alliance unity 'more important than ever,' Change of Government Influence NATO chief says as defense spending rises, Compliance with International Agreements? Stars and Stripes, 14 March 2019 Empirical Evidence for the NATO Two NATO Allies Like Germany Risk Another Percent Target, Defence and Peace Spending Fight With Trump, Bloomberg, 14 Economics, 2019 March 2019

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NATO extends Antonov’s SALIS contract, Azerbaijan Jane’s Defence Weekly, 7 January 2019 Azerbaijan joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council in 1992. This Energy Security forum for dialogue was succeeded in

According to the 2018 Brussels Summit 1997 by the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Declaration, energy security plays an Council. Bilateral cooperation began important role in NATO’s common when Azerbaijan joined the Partnership security. A stable and reliable energy for Peace programme in 1994. supply increases the alliance’s Azerbaijan has supported several resilience against political and NATO-led peace-support operations. economic pressure (para 76). While Ilgar Gurbanov, Azerbaijan and NATO Mark acknowledging these issues are 25 Years of Partnership, Eurasia Daily primarily the responsibility of national Monitor Volume 16, Issue 71, 15 May 2019 authorities, NATO “will continue regular 25 years of NATO - Azerbaijan partnership: allied consultations on issues related to Director General of NATO’s International energy security” and “refine NATO’s Military Staff visits Azerbaijan, NATO News role in energy security in accordance Release, 23 April 2019 with established principles and guidelines, and continue to develop Belarus NATO’s capacity to support national authorities in protecting critical Belarusian-NATO relations began in infrastructure”. 1992, when the country joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council, John Bowlus, Energy Conjoins NATO, 70 transformed into the Euro-Atlantic Years Later, Energy Reporters, 11 April 2019 Partnership Council in 1997. In 1995, Belarus joined NATO’s Partnership for NATO ENSEC COE and JRC held the main Peace (PfP) programme. The first planning conference for the flagship Individual Partnership Programme with Tabletop exercise Coherent Resilience Belarus was endorsed by the NATO 2019, NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence, 5 April 2019 Council in July 1997. Since then, the number of annual joint activities the Lukas Trakimavičius, NATO's Achilles' Heel: Programme has increased more than Power Grids, Real Clear Defense, 9 January six-fold. 2019 Arseny Sivitsky, Not an Enemy: Belarus

Seeks Warmer Relations With NATO, Eurasia Enlargement & Partnerships Daily Monitor Volume: 16 Issue: 40, 12 March 2019 Australia

Bosnia Herzegovina NATO and Australia are strengthening relations, building on dialogue and Bosnia and Herzegovina has been a cooperation that have been developing NATO partner, through the NATO since 2005. In a joint political Partnership for Peace programme, declaration in June 2012, NATO and since 2006. Australia signalled their commitment to strengthen cooperation, and since Admiral Foggo in Sarajevo: NATO February 2013, work is being taken committed to a strong partnership with BiH, European Western Balkans, 7 May 2019 forward through an Individual Partnership and Cooperation NATO and Bosnia and Herzegovina sign Programme. agreement on protection of classified information, NATO News Release, 12 March Graeme Dobell, NATO and ANZUS as 2019 contrasting cousins, The Strategist, 29 April 2019 12

Director General of the NATO International Colombia Military Staff Discusses Regional Stability with Bosnian Officials, NATO News Release, In May 2018 Colombia became the 27 February 2019 latest NATO ‘partner across the globe’.

Sean Maguire and Ryan Scherba, The Bosnia Colombia’s demining centre joins NATO Boondoggle: This Is Why Sarajevo Can't Join network, NATO News Release, 18 March NATO, The National Interest, 13 January 2019 2019 NATO Revises Defense Codification System Brazil in Colombia, Dialogo-Americas, 4 January 2019 During a press conference in March with the President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, Egypt President Trump apparently suggested making the South American nation a Egypt engages with NATO through the member of NATO. “I also intend to Mediterranean Dialogue (see below). designate Brazil as a major non-NATO ally or even possibly, if you start thinking about Egyptian Journalists visit NATO HQ, NATO News Release, 8 April 2019 it, maybe a NATO ally,” he said. However, this remains an extremely unlikely Young Egyptian Diplomats visit NATO HQ, prospect. NATO News Release, 22 February 2019

Brazil Isn’t Ready for Trump’s Invitation to EU-NATO Relations NATO, Bloomberg, 23 March 2019 Following the signature of the Joint China-NATO relations Declaration on NATO-EU cooperation in Warsaw in July 2016, NATO and the EU NATO has maintained a dialogue with have been discussing how to expand countries that are not part of its their joint work, including by bringing partnership frameworks, on an ad-hoc more coherence in their respective basis, since the 1990s. One such defence capability development country is China. While there was no priorities and output. The European mention of China in the 2018 Brussels Council Conclusions of June 2018 Summit Declaration, the 2018 US called for further deepening of NATO- National Defense Strategy cites China EU cooperation. And in July 2018 a new as a strategic competitor. Brussels Joint Declaration was signed The Trump administration continues to by the NATO Secretary General, the push NATO to address potential threats President of the European Council, and from China in its day-to-day work in the President of the European Brussels, as part of a shift in US Commission. priorities away from fighting Islamist terrorists and towards a so-called era of NATO and the EU signed a further great power competition. agreement on 10 December 2018 to cooperate in promoting good David A. Andelman, NATO countries need governance in the defence and security to stop China from winning the 5G race, sector. As part of this agreement, the CNN, 15 April 2019 EU will contribute 2 million EUR to the Kadri Kaska, Henrik Beckvard and Tomáš NATO Building Integrity Trust Fund for Minárik, Huawei, 5G and China as a Security 2019-2022. Threat, The NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence, 2019 NATO, EU military brass duck the transatlantic bullets flying over PESCO and Erik Brattberg, Time for NATO to Talk the EDF, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 24 May About China, Carnegie Europe, 25 March 2019 2019 NATO and EU discuss defence against Robbie Gramer, Trump Wants NATO’s Eyes hybrid warfare, NATO News Release, 14 on China, Foreign Policy, 20 March 2019 March 2019 13

Jo Coelmont, European Strategic per cent. 53 per cent of NATO Autonomy: which military level of ambition? supporters in the April poll believed Egmont Security Policy Brief, No.109, March that the alliance would help Georgia 2019 preserve its security and 27 per cent Elie Perot, The art of commitments: NATO, said joining NATO would lead to the EU, and the interplay between law and restoration of the country’s territorial politics within Europe’s collective defence integrity. The poll also found that architecture, European Security, Vol. 28 Russian military aggression remains No.1, 2019, pp. 40-65 the top security concern of Georgians David Herszenhorn, Europe’s NATO (31 per cent), followed by fear of an problem, Politico, 14 February 2019 occupation of South Ossetia and

In Romania, Secretary General praises Abkhazia (11 per cent), Russian deepening NATO-EU cooperation, NATO propaganda (10 per cent) and terrorism News Release, 30 January 2019 (four per cent).

Fabrice Pothier, A European army: can the Georgia: 77% support accession to EU, 74% dream become a reality? IISS Comment, 7 – to NATO, Jam News, 21 May 2019 January 2019 Neil Hauer, The West Takes NATO for Sven Biscop, Fighting for Europe: European Granted. One Country Still Wants In, The Strategic Autonomy and the Use of Force, Atlantic, 3 April 2019 Egmont Paper 103, January 2019 NATO Allied Land Command signs letter of Finland cooperation with Georgia Defence Forces, DVIDS, 31 March 2019 Finland joined NATO’s Partnership for NATO Military Committee visit Georgia in Peace in 1994 and became a member show of continued support, NATO News of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council Release, 29 March 2019 in 1997. Finland is one of NATO’s most active partners and has contributed to NATO agreed Georgia would join. Why hasn’t it happened? PRI, 27 March 2019 NATO-led operations and missions in the Balkans and Afghanistan. It is one NATO’s Stoltenberg says Georgia is still on of five countries that has enhanced track to eventually join the alliance, New Europe, 27 March 2019 opportunities for dialogue and cooperation with NATO. Secretary General visits NATO-Georgia exercise, NATO News Release, 25 March Pauli Järvenpää, Finland and NATO: So 2019 Close, Yet So Far, EESTI – Estonia, 22 April 2019 Joint press conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and the Prime Georgia Minister of Georgia, Mamuka Bakhtadze, 24 March 2019 A 2008 Bucharest Summit Declaration Georgian defence minister attends promised eventual NATO membership multinational workshop on Non- for Georgia – a position reiterated at Commissioned Officers, NATO News several NATO summits since, and most Release, 25 March 2019 recently in July 2018. NATO countries to begin military exercises According to an opinion poll conducted in Georgia, AA.com, 11 March 2019 in April by the National Democratic NATO and Georgian parliamentarians Institute, 77 per cent of Georgians discuss security in the Black Sea, Georgia’s would support their country joining the NATO integration, NATO PA News Release, EU while 74 per cent would support 22 February 2019 NATO membership – a slight increase compared with a similar poll in January, Zurabishvili Says Georgia is Ready for Integration into NATO, Georgia Today, 24 when support for the EU and NATO January 2019 were surveyed at 72 per cent and 64

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Secretary General welcomes President of Mediterranean Dialogue Georgia to NATO, NATO News Release, 23 January 2019 NATO’s Mediterranean Dialogue (MD) was initiated in 1994 by the North

Israel Atlantic Council and currently involves seven non-NATO countries in the Israel has been a member of NATO’s region: Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Mediterranean Dialogue since it was Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia. The initiated in 1994 and is developing MD aims to contribute to regional closer cooperation with the alliance, security and stability, achieve better including maritime partnerships. mutual understanding.

IDF Deputy Chief of Staff returns from NATO Secretary General Jens NATO conference, Jerusalem Post, 24 May Stoltenberg, with the 29 Permanent 2019 Representatives of the North Atlantic Michael Sieveking, NATO and Israel are Council marked the 25th anniversary of right to deepen ties, New Europe, 23 May the Mediterranean Dialogue on 6 May 2019 2019 in Ankara, Turkey. They were

IDF Deputy Chief of Staff to take part in joined by the Ambassador of North NATO Military Committee Meeting, Macedonia and senior diplomats of the Jerusalem Post, 20 May 2019 seven nations participating in the

Abbas: I Agreed to U.S.-led NATO force in partnership forum.

‘Palestine’, Jerusalem Post, 24 March 2019 NATO marks 25th anniversary of NATO Deputy Secretary General Rose Mediterranean Dialogue, NATO News Gottemoeller visits Israel, NATO News Release, 6 May 2019

Release, 21 January 2019 NATO and the Kingdom of Morocco co- organize a public diplomacy seminar Jordan celebrating the 25th anniversary of the

NATO supports Jordan in the areas of Mediterranean Dialogue, NATO News cyber defence, border security and Release, 5 February 2019 counter improvised explosive devices New Zealand (C-IED). In February 2018, NATO launched a Defence Capacity Building NATO and New Zealand have been Project to enhance Jordan’s capacity in engaged in dialogue and cooperation national resilience and crisis since 2001. New Zealand is one of a management. range of countries beyond the Euro- Atlantic area—often referred to as NATO and United Nations working together “partners across the globe”—with to strengthen Jordan’s security and defence which NATO is developing relations. capacity against terrorist threats, NATO News Release, 6 March 2019 Since 2012 work has been taken forward through an Individual Kuwait Partnership and Cooperation Programme. Kuwait is a member of NATO's Istanbul Cooperation Initiative and hosts the NATO seeks NZ support for new Iraq NATO-ICI Regional Center, which was training programme, Radio NZ, 26 January inaugurated in Kuwait City in 2017. In 2019

November 2018, Kuwait inaugurated Secretary General: NATO and New Zealand the offices of its first ever diplomatic are close partners, NATO News Release, 25 mission to NATO. January 2019

Young Kuwaiti Diplomats share views with North Macedonia NATO officials during a recent visit at NATO Headquarters, NATO News Release, 12 Macedonia is set to join NATO as the March 2019 alliance’s 30th member after changing

15 its name to the Republic of North Ausrine Armonaite (Lithuania) Rapporteur, Macedonia. Agreement on the name NATO Parliamentary Assembly, Economics change was reached with Greece in and Security Committee (ESC), Sub- 2018. The name dispute between Committee on Transition and Development Skopje and Athens dates back to 1991, (ESCTD), The Republic of North Macedonia: Political Change, NATO Accession and when Macedonia peacefully broke away Economic Transition, Draft Report, 8 April from Yugoslavia, declaring its 2019 independence under the name Republic of Macedonia. Greece had objected to After Prespa: Could the North Macedonia the name Macedonia, saying it implied name agreement fall apart? ECFR Commentary, 28 March 2019 territorial claims on the northern Greek region with the same name. Greece had NATO Secretary General welcomes the cited the dispute to veto Macedonia's Prime Minister Zoran Zaev of North bid to join both NATO and the EU. Macedonia, NATO News Release, 20 March 2019 On 25 January, Greece’s parliament Leaders of the Republic of North Macedonia approved the change and in February see NATO accession as key to regional NATO signed an accession agreement stabilisation and domestic reform, NATO with North Macedonia. Each NATO PA News Release, 18 March 2019 member state now has to ratify the accession protocol—five have done so Todd Carney, What Does North Macedonia’s Name Change Have to Do with to date (Albania, Bulgaria, Greece, NATO? Lawfare, 8 March 2019 Montenegro and Slovenia). Gil Barndollar, Macedonia is set to join In May, in a presidential runoff, voters NATO — an alliance that can’t fight, in North Macedonia elected a Defense News, 13 February 2019 government-backed candidate who Macedonia officially changes its name to plans to bring the country into NATO North Macedonia, The Guardian, 12 under its new name over a rival who February 2019 had vowed to challenge the name change if elected. Stevo Pendarovski, a Maxim Samorukov, Macedonia Joining joint candidate of the governing Social NATO Is a Self-Inflicted Defeat for Russia, Moscow Times, 10 February 2019 Democrats and 30 smaller parties, received about 52 per cent of the vote, Greece approves protocol for 'North compared with about 45 per cent for Macedonia' to join NATO with 153 votes, Ekathemerini, 8 February 2019 his opponent, Gordana Siljanovska Davkova. Leonid Bershidsky, Trump Doesn’t Need North Macedonia in NATO, Bloomberg, 7 Maxim Samorukov, Double or quits: A February 2019 Russian approach to North Macedonia and NATO, European Leadership Network, 14 Nato to add Macedonia despite Putin May 2019 warning, EU Observer, 7 February 2019

North Macedonia's pro-Western candidate Jonathan Katz, Evelyn Farkas and Zhikica wins presidential vote, Reuters, 5 May 2019 Pagovski, The Agreement Over Macedonia’s Name Is a Glimmer of Hope in Supporter of North Macedonia Name Europe, GMF (Blog), 6 February 2019 Change Wins Presidency, New York Times, 5 May 2019 Macedonia signs Nato accession agreement, BBC News, 6 February 2019 Renamed North Macedonia Revisits Row That Opened NATO Path, Bloomberg, 5 May NATO Allies sign Accession Protocol for the 2019 future Republic of North Macedonia, NATO News Release, 6 February 2019 Dimitar Bechev, The Impact of North Macedonia's Accession to NATO, RUSI NATO To Sign Accession Pact With Newsbrief, 25 April 2019 Macedonia, Paving Way For Membership, Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, 2 February 2019

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What’s in a Name? Membership in NATO, Azita Raji, The Partnership for Peace: A The Cipher Brief, 1 February 2019 Quiet NATO Success Story, War on the Rocks, 8 April 2019 James Pardew, Something remarkable just happened in the Balkans, The Hill, 31 Secretary General praises NATO’s Open January 2019 Door policy at enlargement anniversary event, NATO News Release, 18 March 2019 Greek lawmakers ratify Macedonia name change, clearing way for NATO, EU Mike Sweeney, NATO Expansion Got Some membership, Defense News, 25 January Big Things Right, War on the Rocks, 7 2019 March 2019

NATO intelligence chief visits Skopje for Matthew Cancian and Mark Cancian, It Is talks on defence reforms, NATO News Long Past Time to Stop Expanding NATO, Release, 21 January 2019 War On The Rocks, 1 March 2019

Macedonia approves historical deal with Greece to rename itself North Macedonia, Science for Peace and Security Independent, 13 January 2019 Programme

EU and NATO officials congratulate The NATO Science for Peace and Macedonia on amending the Constitution, Security Programme was created in Western Balkans, 12 January 2019 1958 to promote the training of

Macedonian PM Urges Parliament To Back scientists, encourage the sharing of Name Change, Radio Free Europe/ Radio knowledge, and build networks of Liberty, 9 January 2019 experts.

Process of constitutional changes in NATO works on quantum cryptography Macedonia to enter final phase, Zaev with Malta, NATO News Release, 16 April optimistic, Western Balkans, 4 January 2019 2019 Serbia Policy Unlike other Western Balkan partners, Hal Brands, If NATO Expansion Was a Serbia does not aspire to join NATO. Mistake, Why Hasn’t Putin Invaded? However, the country is deepening its Bloomberg, 14 May 2019 political dialogue and cooperation with the alliance on issues of common NATO Partnership Programmes have interest, such as defence reforms. witnessed a constant growth in the past two decades. Today the system has Inspired by NATO Bombing, Serbian Artist become close to unmanageable in Turns Trauma into Art, Balkan Insight, 30 terms of administrative burden and May 2019 oversight—not only with regard to the Serbian president blasts NATO aggression numbers of partner countries but also as crime that turned the clock back, TASS, when it comes to the types of 27 March 2019 programmes, initiatives and 20 years on, Serbian victims of NATO frameworks, funding and review bombings feel forgotten, France 24, 21 mechanisms. This Working Paper March 2019 argues that the Partnership Programmes are in need of adaptation Serbia Just Got More Russian-Made MiG Fighters as Arms Race With NATO-Member and proposes possible steps into that Croatia Escalates, TIME, 25 February 2019 direction

Wolfgang Rudischhauser, Adaptations Sweden Needed: NATO Partnership Programmes in NATO and Sweden actively cooperate in the 21st century, German Federal Academy for Security Policy, Security Policy Working peace and security operations, and the Paper No. 11/2019, May 2019 country has been a major contributor to NATO-led operations and missions in the Balkans and Afghanistan. Sweden

17 joined NATO’s Partnership for Peace in Secretary General and Tunisian Foreign 1994 and became a member of the Minister take stock of partnership between Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council in NATO and Tunisia, NATO News Release, 16 May 2019 1997. Sweden is one of five countries that has enhanced opportunities for NATO trains the Tunisian Navy on maritime dialogue and cooperation with NATO. simulators, NATO News Release, 22 March 2019 A report for the Swedish Parliament concluded in January that Sweden Ukraine should not join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) It has been 25 years since Ukraine “in its present form”. Diverse joined NATO’s Partnership for Peace stakeholders have been submitting programme and Since 2014, in the assessments of the report and the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Swedish Government is expected to cooperation has been intensified. In make an official decision whether to January, Ukraine purchased over join the TPNW in due course. $770,000 worth of .50 calibre sniper rifles from Canada, indicating another Wheels up for airforce exercise in the skies step in the direction of the Ukrainian over northern Scandinava, Barents military adopting a number of small Observer, 26 May 2019 arms (and ammunition) in common Riina Kaljurand, The Hem and Haw of Sweden’s standardized usage with NATO forces. Relationship with NATO, EESTI – Estonia, 22 April 2019 In March NATO and the European Union condemned Russia's 2014 annexation

The past decade has seen substantial of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula five shifts in Swedish security policy and years after Moscow declared the region major change in the domestic debate Russian territory. NATO allies said in a about NATO. For the first time, all of statement that "we strongly condemn the right-of-centre “alliance parties” are this act, which we do not and will not calling for a full NATO membership, recognize”. They also criticized Russia's and popular support for NATO has military buildup in Crimea and alleged increased. Yet public opinion contains rights abuses including "arbitrary ambiguities and paradoxes that detentions, arrest, and torture" against complicate the picture. At the same members of the Crimean Tartar time as support for NATO has community. increased, the public is overwhelmingly Illia Ponomarenko, NATO-Ukraine: Where for continued military non-alignment. does relationship stand after 25 years of Karl Ydén, Joakim Berndtsson and Magnus talks? Kiev Post, 31 May 2019

Petersson, Sweden and the issue of NATO Zelenskiy team backs continued membership: exploring a public opinion cooperation with NATO, Kyiv Post, 23 April paradox, Defence Studies, Vol. 19 No.1, 2019 2019, pp.1-18 Sergey Sukhankin, Ukraine’s Thorny Path to NATO Membership: Mission (im)possible? Tunisia EESTI – Estonia, 22 April 2019

In 2014, 20 years after joining the Ukrainian Presidential Front-Runner Mediterranean Dialogue initiative, Pledges to hold Referendum on NATO, Tunisia entered a NATO individual Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, 18 April partnership and cooperation 2019 programme focused on priority areas Ukraine caught in cross-fire as Russia- including counter-terrorism and border NATO cooperation curtailed, UNIAN, 17 security. April 2019

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NATO intensifies scientific cooperation and a NATO Intelligence Division to with Ukraine, NATO News Release, 11 April better understand the security threats. 2019 In March, the NATO Joint Intelligence

Nikola Mikovic, NATO in the Black Sea: How and Security Division (JISD), in will Russia Respond? International Policy conjunction with the Netherlands Digest, 5 April 2019 Defence Intelligence and Security

Cadets from Ukraine’s Naval Forces Service, hosted the 20th annual NATO Institute train on NATO mine trawler, Kyiv Warning Intelligence Working Group Post, 27 March 2019 and Symposium, in Amsterdam. Over the course of the three-day event, Statement by the North Atlantic Council on Crimea, NATO News Release, 18 March intelligence practitioners and 2019 policymakers exchanged views on the diverse threats and challenges NATO-Ukraine Commission discusses currently facing NATO. situation in Crimea, NATO News Release, 6 March 2019 NATO and the United Nations mark

Ukraine expects NATO to provide continued cooperation against terrorism, Membership Action Plan, set date of NATO News Release, 7 May 2019 accession, Ukrinform, 23 February 2019 NATO Nations discuss Warning Intelligence

Ukraine President Signs Constitutional Reform, NATO News Release, 1 April 2019

Amendment On NATO, EU Membership, Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, 19 Maritime Security February 2019

Ukrainian Parliament Passes Constitutional NATO’s Maritime Strategy, agreed in Amendment To Reflect EU, NATO 2011, sets out a series of activities that Aspirations, Radio Free Europe/ Radio includes collective defence, crisis Liberty, 7 February 2019 management, cooperative security and maritime security. Ukrainian snipers are about to get this powerful new upgrade courtesy of Canada, Rowan Allport, Fill the Cracks in NATO’s Military Times, 7 January 2019 Maritime Strategy, Defense One, 3 January 2019 UN-NATO Relations

NATO and the United Nations are Military Exercises building on dialogue and cooperation developed after the end of the Cold For 2019, a total of 102 NATO War. A structured framework for exercises are planned; 39 of them are cooperation was set out in a Joint open to partner participation. Allies Declaration agreed in 2008. In March reported that they will conduct 208 NATO took part in the annual UN national and multinational exercises. Peacekeeping Ministerial Conference in The exercises led by NATO and allies New York. The alliance was represented this year include around 25 exercises by Clare Hutchinson, NATO Secretary primarily focused on the land domain, General’s Special Representative for 27 exercises focused on the air Women, Peace and Security. domain, and 12 exercises focused mainly on maritime operations. Many NATO participates in UN Peacekeeping other exercises train specific functions Ministerial meeting in New York, NATO or skills such as cyber defence, crisis News Release, 1 April 2019 response decision-making, Chemical,

Biological, Radiological Nuclear Intelligence defence, logistics, communications and medical. Military exercises conducted In recent years, NATO has stepped up so far in 2019 include: its efforts in Intelligence by creating an Assistant Secretary General position

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DYNAMIC MANTA (25 February – 9 US military, allies in Romania stage largest- March), Italy, Mediterranean Sea - ever combined NATO medical exercise, Annual NATO aero-naval exercise Stars and Stripes, 25 April 2019 aimed at testing submarine warfare and Lara Martinho (Portugal) Rapporteur, NATO anti-submarine warfare capabilities; Exercises – Evolution and Lessons Learned, Draft Report, NATO Parliamentary NATO-GEORGIA EXERCISE (18-29 Assembly, Defence and Security March), Georgia - Second multinational Committee, Sub-Committee on Future NATO-Georgia exercise, hosted by Security and Defence Capabilities, 9 April Georgia and involving more than 20 2019 NATO allies and partners, as well as US B-52 bombers conduct training in international humanitarian Europe, NATO News Release, 25 March organisations; 2019

LOCKED SHIELDS (9-11 April), Estonia - Air Force B-52s deploy to England for NATO One of the world’s largest and most exercises, Stars and Stripes, 19 March 2019 complex live-fire cyber defence Thousands to take part in Nato's UK-led exercises, hosted annually by the NATO Joint Warrior, BBC News, 14 March 2019 Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence; NATO's advanced Anti-Submarine Warfare Exercise Dynamic Manta begins in Italy, RAMSTEIN ALLOY 1 (15-17 April), Baltic NATO Allied Maritime Command News States – One of three live exercises with Release, 27 February 2019

Article 5 scenarios and a focus on the UK and NATO allies to test crisis response Air domain (and include partners on exercise in Germany, UK Government Finland and Sweden); News Release, 27 February 2019

JOINT WARRIOR (22 April – 5 May), UK - Thomas Hughes, More than just ‘war A UK-led multinational naval exercise games,’ military exercises require that takes place every two years; transparency, The Conversation, 22 January 2019 SPRING STORM (29 April – 10 May), Estonia - A large-scale live exercise of U.S., NATO Assess Lessons of Trident the Estonian Defence Forces, with Juncture Exercise, US Department of Defense, 17 January 2019 participation from NATO’s enhanced Forward Presence and other allied Dstl tests NATO’s War of Words, UK MoD forces (with participation by some News Release, 17 January 2019 - Specialists 10,000 military personnel in total); and in strategic communications were deployed with NATO troops on Exercise Trident NOBLE JUMP 19 (24 May – 14 June), Juncture NATO HQs and Poland - The first, table- top phase of this exercise tested the Missile Defence activation, deployment planning and readiness of the Very High Readiness Major components of NATO missile Joint Task Force. The exercise activated defence currently include US Navy the overall NRF and forces moving from destroyers fitted with the Aegis missile their home stations to their points of defence system based in Rota, Spain; embarkation. The second, live portion, and a US-operated land-based system starting on 1 June, will test the in Romania and Poland known as Aegis deployment of elements of the VJTF Ashore. Other major components and the role of NATO Force Integration include an early warning radar in Units. Turkey. NATO's air command in Ramstein, Germany is the responsible NATO’s Largest Communications and command. Information Systems Exercise Has Begun, Bulgarian Military, 20 May 2019 In January, President Trump announced a plan for a major expansion in US

20 missile defence that will rely on a new NATO’s internal rifts emerge as powerful generation of space-based sensors. The subtext at Munich forum, Defense News, 15 administration’s long-delayed missile February 2019 defence review called for the expansion of the US network of sensors and NATO @ 70 interceptors designed to identify and shoot down incoming projectiles from The occasion of NATO’s 70th birthday “rogue states”. was modest: a gathering of foreign ministers in Washington DC in April Ships from nine NATO countries took (see below). The anniversary took place part in live-fire air and missile defence amidst public rifts between the United drills off the coast of Scotland in May. States and several of the other 28 Exercise Formidable Shield took place members on security and trade issues. at the UK’s Hebrides training range, in These included the dispute between the the Western Isles of Scotland. A total of United States and Turkey over the 13 ships, 10 aircraft and about 3,300 latter’s planned purchase of a Russian personnel were involved. air defence system (see the ‘Turkey’

NATO ships start missile defence drill off section below), US demands for allies, Scotland, NATO News Release, 8 May 2019 particularly Germany, to boost defence spending, and a US-Canadian trade U.S., NATO allies start Formidable Shield disagreement. exercise in Scotland, UPI.com, 7 May 2019 Nonetheless, op-ed writers were out in Nato’s Aegis Ashore Romania site to undergo update works, Naval Technology, force with a wide range of views 15 April 2019 describing NATO as ‘a bulwark’, ‘remarkably resilient’ and ‘the world’s Benjamin Zala, Neither MAD nor Even: most powerful military alliance’ to Looking beyond Trump’s Missile Defense ‘obsolete’, ‘past retirement age’, and Review, ORG Briefing, February 2019 ‘unlawful with serious psychological US plans new space sensors for missile problems’. defence against 'rogue states', The Guardian, 17 January 2019 Matthieu Borsboom, This anniversary should remind NATO of its bonds forged in battle, New Europe, 17 May 2019 Munich Security Conference Caoimhghin Ó Croidheáin, NATO and the Culture of War: Ireland’s History of “Of course, NATO is about cash, Resistance, Dissident Voice, 9 May 2019 capabilities and contributions. But it’s NATO at 70: Bringing its values to the table? also about dignity, decency and Deutsche Welle, 17 April 2019 dependability. Only if we can unify those aspects can we preserve NATO’s Margaret Flowers and Kevin B. Zeese, No to cohesion and inner strength”. NATO: Time To End Aggressive Militarism, anti-War.com, 11 April 2019 Ursula von der Leyen, German Defence Minister, Munich Security Conference, 15 Robert Hunter, NATO Came and NATO Went, Lobe Log, 9 April 2019 February 2019

Gil Barndollar, NATO Is 70 and Past American Value and European Values, Judy Retirement Age, National Interest, 8 April Dempsey, Carnegie Europe, 15 February 2019 2019 Kevin Zeese and Margaret Flowers, No to Secretary General at Munich Security NATO: Time to end aggressive militarism, Conference: ''If we stand united we will be Nation of Change, 8 April 2019 ready to face the future.'', NATO News Jamie Shea, NATO at 70: an opportunity to Release, 15 February 2019 recalibrate, NATO Review, 5 April 2019

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5 Dark Clouds Hanging Over NATO's 70th Adam Schiff, At 70, NATO remains a crucial Anniversary, NPR, 5 April 2019 alliance. So why does Trump keep attacking it? Los Angeles Times, 29 March 2019 Fabrice Pothier, Five challenges that NATO must overcome to stay relevant, IISS, 4 April James Carden, NATO Turns 70, The Nation, 2019 28 March 2019

Ruben Gallego & Elise Stefanik, Back to the David Reynolds, NATO in the age of Putin future: NATO at 70, The Hill, 4 April 2019 and Trump, New Stateman, 27 March 2019

Jacob Parakilas, Don’t Count on NATO to Strobe Talbot, A brief history of NATO, Save Liberal Values, Chatham House, 4 from Truman to Trump, Brookings, 27 April 2019 March 2019

Sam Fellman, These are 6 of NATO's worst Noah Rothman, No, NATO Isn’t Dying, crises in 70 years as the world's most Commentary Magazine, 26 March 2019 powerful military alliance, Business Insider, Fang Xiaozhi, NATO's fate uncertain as it 3 April 2019 turns 70, China Military Online, 26 March Sophia Besch and Ian Bond, NATO at 70: 2019 Twilight years or a new dawn? Centre for Brian Cloughley, NATO’s Expensive European Reform, 3 April 2019 Anniversaries, Counter Punch, 22 March Rachel Ellehuus, NATO at 70-Shaping the 2019 Future for the Next 70 Years, CSIS Hans Binnendijk, 5 consequences of a life Commentary, 2 April 2019 without NATO, Defense News, 19 March Yves Engler, The Anti-Democratic Roots of 2019 NATO, Real News, 2 April 2019 Daniel Franklin, How is NATO shaping up at Julie Smith, NATO needs solidarity for its 70, The Economist, 14 March 2019 70th birthday, Foreign Policy, 2 April 2019 What NATO is doing to keep abreast of new Gustav Gressel, After Crimea: Does NATO challenges, The Economist, 14 March 2019 have the means to defend Europe? ECFR Jonathan Ellis Allen, Don’t Count NATO Out Commentary, 2 April 2019 Just Yet, The National Interest, 21 February Jeremy Shapiro, NATO at 70: Celebration 2019 and introspection, ECFR Commentary, 2 Christina Pazzanese, A spirited defense of April 2019 NATO as bulwark, The Harvard Gazette, 14 Jan Oberg, NATO at 70: An unlawful February 2019 organisation with serious psychological Nicholas Burns and Douglas Lute, NATO at problems, Transnational, 2 April 2019 Seventy: An Alliance in Crisis, Belfer Center NATO at 70: From Triumph to Tumult?, for Science and International Affairs, GMF Policy Brief 360, 1 April 2019 Harvard Kennedy School, February 2019

Karlyn Bowman, NATO at 70: How Strong Is Leaders Underscore the Importance of Public Support? Forbes, 1 April 2019 NATO, World Economic Forum, 24 January 2019 Nick Wadhams and Jonathan Stearns, NATO's Muted 70th Birthday David Stockman, Trump Derangement Overshadowed by Skeptic-in-Chief, Syndrome and the NATO Fetish of the Bloomberg, 1 April 2019 Progressive Left, Anti-War.com, 23 January 2019 Stewart Patrick, As NATO Turns 70, the European Security Debate Comes Full Kevin Zeese and Margaret Flowers, Beyond Circle, World Politics Review, 1 April 2019 NATO: Time To Break The Silence, End NATO’s Militarism, Eurasia Review, 21 Douglas Macgregor, NATO Is Not Dying. It’s January 2019 a Zombie, National Interest, 31 March 2019 Ursula von der Leyen, The World Still Needs NATO fetes 70 years, but Trump not NATO, New York Times, 18 Jan. 2019 partying, France 24, 31 March 2019 Pat Buchanan, Time to rethink NATO, WND, Dan Runde, The state of NATO is better 17 January 2019 than you think, The Hill, 29 March 2019

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NATO Defence Ministers Meeting Ministers concluded their meeting with Brussels, 13-14 February 2019 a discussion on burden-sharing in the alliance. The Secretary General NATO Defence Ministers discussed the welcomed progress, including four INF Treaty, NATO’s defence and consecutive years of rising investment deterrence posture, NATO’s missions in defence. “Since 2016, European allies and operations, and European and Canada have added $41 billion cooperation on defence. dollars to their defence spending; by NATO Defence Ministers conclude two days the end of next year, this will rise to of discussions in Brussels, NATO News $100 billion”, he said. Release, 15 February 2019 NATO Foreign Ministers Agree To Enhance Remarks by High Representative/Vice- Security In Black Sea Region, Eurasia President Federica Mogherini upon arrival Review, 5 April 2019 to the NATO Defence Ministers' meeting, EEAS News Release, 14 February 2019 NATO Foreign Ministers agree to enhance security in the Black Sea region, NATO Doorstep statement by NATO Secretary News Release, 4 April 2019 General Jens Stoltenberg ahead of the meetings of NATO Defence Ministers in Press conference by NATO Secretary Brussels, 13 February 2019 General Jens Stoltenberg following the first meeting of the North Atlantic Council in NATO Defence Ministers meet in Brussels, Foreign Ministers’ session, 4 April 2019 NATO News Release, 13 February 2019 As NATO Envoys Celebrate, Signs of NATO Defence Ministers to address Fracturing From Within, New York Times, 4 pressing security challenges, NATO News April 2019 Release, 12 February 2019 NATO approves measures to counter Russia amid internal rifts, Military Times, 4 NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting April 2019 Brussels, 3-4 April 2019 NATO marks 70th anniversary with NATO Foreign Ministers met in Washington meeting of Foreign Ministers, Washington DC to mark the 70th NATO News Release, 4 April 2019 anniversary of the alliance (see above). 3 Ways Europe Is Looking at a Fraying The meeting discussed NATO’s NATO, Defense One, 2 April 2019 relations with Russia and approved a series of measures aimed at countering Foreign Ministers to mark NATO’s 70th anniversary, NATO News Release, 1 April Russia in the Black Sea region, 2019 including providing Georgia and Ukraine with increased maritime Press conference by NATO Secretary cooperation, patrols and port visits. General Jens Stoltenberg ahead of the The Ministers also renewed demands meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers in Washington, D.C. on 3 and 4 April 2019, 1 for Russia to end its annexation of April 2019 Crimea, release Ukrainian sailors and ships it seized in a confrontation last year in the Sea of Azov and respect the NATO Military Committee – new INF Treaty (see ‘Arms Control & Military Strategy Disarmament’ section above). On 22 May 2019, the twenty-nine NATO Ministers also discussed NATO’s role in Chiefs of Defence and invitee North the fight against terrorism and US Macedonia met in Brussels for the efforts to seek a political settlement in 181st Military Committee in Chiefs of Afghanistan. “We went into Afghanistan Defence Session. The Chiefs of Defence together, and we agree that we will take came together to discuss and sign-off any decisions on our future presence on NATO’s new Military Strategy, which together”, said the NATO Secretary is not publicly available (see essay General. above). They also discussed the

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Supreme Allied Commander Europe Balkans; The High North; North-East (SACEUR)’s Area of Responsibility and Asia; Afghanistan; Strengthening the development of the Alliance’s Women’s Role in Peace and Security; deterrence and defence posture. and Education and Communication about NATO NATO tackles growing Russia, China threat with new military strategy, 30-30-30 plan, 18th Annual Parliamentary Transatlantic Washington Times, 29 May 2019 Forum Report, Washington, D.C., 10-12

Obeying Washington? ‘New’ NATO strategy December 2018, NATO Parliamentary Assembly, February 2019 parrots hawkish US posture, RT, 28 May 2019 2018 Annual Presidential Report of the

NATO Chiefs of Defence discuss future NATO Parliamentary Assembly released, NATO PA News Release, 19 February 2019 Alliance adaptation, NATO News Release, 22 May 2019 NATO Parliamentary Assembly visits NATO, NATO News Release, 18 February 2019 NATO’s top military official talks Russia, Turkey and the INF Treaty, Defense News, NATO adaptation and enlargement, INF, 22 March 2019 and relations with EU top agenda for NATO

The NATO Military Committee underscores Parliamentarians’ annual Brussels meeting, importance of the Transatlantic Bond with NATO PA News Release, 15 February 2019 visit to Washington, NATO News Release, 15 March 2019 NATO Summit

NATO Military Committee visits The next NATO summit will be held in Transatlantic Commands, NATO News Release, 13 March 2019 London on December 3 and 4 as the alliance marks its 70th anniversary. The The NATO Military Committee in Permanent December summit will be a chance to Session welcomes the future Republic of "address current and emerging security North Macedonia as Invitee, NATO News challenges and how NATO continues to Release, 12 February 2019 invest and adapt to ensure it will remain NATO Chiefs of Defence focus on NATO’s a pillar of stability in the years ahead", Readiness and its Deterrence and Defence Jens Stoltenberg said in a statement. Posture, NATO News Release, 24 January 2019 Secretary General announces dates for the

Dunford Meets With NATO Defense Chiefs, Summit of NATO Heads of State and US Department of Defense, 15 January Government in London, NATO News Release, 22 May 2019 2019 Donald Trump to visit UK in December for Nato summit, BBC News, 6 December 2019 NATO Parliamentary Assembly Secretary General announces NATO Heads The NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s of State and Government will meet in Annual Presidential Report was London, NATO News Release, 6 February released in February, outlining how 2019 legislators in member states tackled crucial issues in their 2018 reports, Nuclear Weapons recommendations, and activities. The report highlights the Assembly’s work NATO’s collective defence strategy is and achievements on the following key based on a mix of nuclear, conventional topics: The 2018 NATO Summit; and missile defence capabilities. At the Tackling Russia’s Multifaceted 2018 NATO Summit, the alliance Challenge; Instability in NATO’s continued to argue that its “nuclear Southern Neighbourhood; Burden arrangements” are fully consistent with Sharing and Transatlantic Relations; the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty Modernising Security and Defence; (NPT), while rejecting the 2017 Treaty NATO’S Eastern Partners; The Western on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

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(TPNW) as being “inconsistent with the Baltimore, Los Angeles and Toronto. alliance’s nuclear deterrence policy”. Three Councils in the UK have also Both of these claims remain expressed support for the TPNW. And questionable (see NATO Watch in Norway 85 per cent of the public in Observatory No.49). an opinion poll wanted its government to sign the Treaty. Following the US suspension and withdrawal from the INF Treaty (see On 11 April, two US Congressmen, Jim ‘Arms Control & Disarmament’ section McGovern and Earl Blumenauer, above) in February, at least three Green introduced the first resolution into the MEPs participated in direct action that US House of Representatives, breached a security fence at the Kleine ‘Embracing the Goals and Provisions of Brogel air base in Belgium to protest the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear against its stockpiling of US B-61 Weapons’, that calls on the US nuclear bombs. (Belgium, Germany, administration to support the TPNW Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey host and make nuclear disarmament a US nuclear weapons as part of NATO's central focus of US national security nuclear sharing policy). Michèle Rivasi, policy. Although the resolution has no the vice-chair of the Green party in the chance of becoming law, Beatrice Fihn, European parliament said that: “When Executive Director of ICAN, said it is “a we get over the fence, I want to get to sign that the TPNW is starting to make the F-16’s runway with a banner calling an impact on the national security for a nuclear-free Europe. After that, we debate in nuclear weapon states”. will see if the police take us to jail”. Harvey M. Sapolsky, Time to Pull US Nuclear Also in February, the International Weapons Out of Turkey, Defense One, 17 Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), the May 2019

International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), and It is also important that NATO has a the wider International Red Cross and dialogue with Russia on nuclear issues Red Crescent Movement launched a as part of an effort to take all steps to new global campaign that draws reduce the risk of nuclear use. One way further attention to the catastrophic of doing this would be to reinvigorate humanitarian consequences of a dialogue within the NATO-Russia nuclear war and encourages people to Council (Paragraph 36). urge their governments to ratify the Rising nuclear risk, disarmament and the TPNW. Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty, UK House The number of ratifying states for the of Lords Select Committee on International TPNW is steadily rising. In April, Relations 7th Report of Session 2017–19 HL Paper 338, 24 April 2019 Panama became the 23rd state to ratify the Treaty—a further 27 states are required to do so before the treaty Nuclear deterrence is not just a enters into force. While no NATO dangerous concept on which to base member states have signed or ratified national or international security. It is the TPNW several cities in NATO immoral, undemocratic, and member states have committed to the contradictory to human interests, as Treaty through a cities appeal by the expressed through common political, International Campaign to Abolish scientific, and religious belief systems. Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). The five latest cities to do so were Zaragoza in Spain, Must Read: James E. Doyle, The Mainz and Bremen in Germany, Salt inhumanity of nuclear deterrence, Bulletin Lake City in the United States and of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 75 No.2, 2019, pp. 85-91 Trondheim in Norway. Other major NATO cities that have joined include

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A New Nuclear Arms Race: As NATO Marks In February, NATO defence ministers 70th Anniversary, Threat of Nuclear weighed the future of the alliance's Confrontation Grows, Democracy Now, 8 operation in Afghanistan and debated April 2019 how best to use its military presence to Chairman of NATO Military Committee support political talks aimed at ending visits key UK strategic deterrent site, NATO the conflict. US plans to reduce the News Release, 29 March 2019 number of forces in Afghanistan will be

Jeffrey G. Lewis and Bruno Tertrais, The coordinated with allies, Acting US Finger on the Button: The Authority to Use Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan Nuclear Weapons in Nuclear-Armed States, told the NATO ministers. James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, CNS Occasional Paper No.45, According to the UN mission in February 2019 Afghanistan, civilian casualties from airstrikes increased by over 60 per cent Nick Ritchie, A hegemonic nuclear order: in 2018 compared to the previous year, Understanding the Ban Treaty and the with most caused by US airstrikes. And power politics of nuclear weapons, Contemporary Security Policy, 31 January in the first three months of 2019, NATO 2019 and pro-government security forces in Afghanistan killed more civilians than the Taliban and other terrorist groups. Operations and Missions It is the first time that fatalities caused by security forces in Afghanistan Afghanistan exceeded those caused by the Taliban. At the same time, total casualty NATO wound down combat operations numbers fell compared with the in 2014 and began training and previous year. advising Afghan security forces. US forces, which have been in Afghanistan A report released in April by the US in a counter-terrorism role since 2001, Special Inspector General for numbered around 15,000 in late 2018, Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) although towards the end of the year, said that both the US military and NATO US President Trump ordered the have stopped producing an assessment withdrawal of 7,000 US troops. The that was considered key for measuring United States has also been pushing to progress against the insurgency in jump-start an Afghan peace process, Afghanistan. The metric tracked district but faces a Taliban that is at its stability and was previously one of the strongest since being deposed by a US- “most widely cited Afghan security led military coalition 17 years ago. The metrics”.

Taliban’s battlefield successes and In May it was revealed that Germany, a territorial gains give it more leverage in leading donor and member of the talks. NATO-led coalition in Afghanistan, has In January, Abdullah Abdullah, the chief been talking with the Taliban and the executive officer of the Afghan Afghan Government in an effort to Government, said that an end to the restart peace talks. war in Afghanistan remains a “dream” Germany in push to resurrect Afghan talks as long as the Taliban refuses to involve with Taliban, Reuters, 26 May 2019 the Afghan Government in peace talks. Abdullah’s remarks came after the 'Tragic accident': US air attack kills 8 policemen in Afghanistan, Al Jazeera, 17 May 2019 Taliban decided to cancel a fourth round of negotiations due to disputes Afghan Officials: Airstrikes Kill up to 50 IS with US officials about the involvement Militants, VoA, 4 May 2019 of Afghan Government officials in the US military ends reporting on security ongoing peace process. situation in Afghanistan’s districts, Long War Journal, 30 April 2019

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NATO, Afghan forces kill more civilians Top U.S. commander in Afghanistan sees than Taliban, Deutsche Welle, 24 April peace opportunity in 2019, Reuters, 1 2019 January 2019

NATO: Two U.S. Military Personnel Killed In Afghanistan, Radio Free Europe/ Radio Kosovo Liberty, 22 March 2019 Two decades after the withdrawal of Serbian forces, Kosovo's security is still Sir Nicholas Kay arrives as the new NATO guaranteed by 4,000 NATO troops, Senior Civilian Representative in known as KFOR. In December 2018, Afghanistan, NATO News Release, 5 March 2019 Kosovo’s parliament voted to turn its lightly-armed emergency response Defence education experts review progress force into a 5,000-strong professional in Afghanistan, NATO News Release, 5 military. Serbia views this decision as a March 2019 threat to Kosovo's 120,000-strong Shanahan: US won’t pull troops from ethnic-Serb minority. Afghanistan without consulting NATO, The Hill, 14 February 2019 Serbia does not recognise Kosovo, which declared independence 10 years Pentagon chief: US will work with NATO on ago. For NATO the vote is also planned Afghanistan troop withdrawal, problematic. "I regret that the decision Military Times, 14 February 2019 to initiate a change of the Kosovo NATO Weighs Future of Afghan Mission, Security Force mandate was made Seeks to Support Talks, Military Times, 14 despite the concerns expressed by February 2019 NATO”, said Secretary General Jens Phyllis Bennis, Is the Longest US War Finally Stoltenberg. He warned that the Ending? Truthout, 7 February 2019 Western military alliance would have to

A New Phase in the Great Game: U.S., "re-examine the level of NATO's Soviets, India, Pakistan vied to shape a new engagement with the Kosovo Security Afghanistan in late 1980s, National Force". The United States, however, Security Archive Briefing Book No. 658, 1 backed the formation of a Kosovan February 2019 army.

Pentagon and NATO chiefs say Taliban talks In March, Kosovo Prime Minister have been 'encouraging', ABC News, 29 Ramush Haradinaj fired the country’s January 2019 ethnic Serb deputy justice minister NATO, U.S. Officials Encouraged By Afghan after she called NATO’s 1999 bombing Peace Talks After 'Draft Framework' campaign against Serbia a “planned Agreed, Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, genocide”. 29 January 2019 Kosovo PM fires deputy minister over The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, 1979: comments about NATO, Reuters, 25 March Not Trump’s Terrorists, Nor Zbig’s Warm 2019 Water Ports, National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 657, 29 Ambassador Kosnett’s Message on the January 2019 - Declassified Documents 20th Anniversary of NATO’s Operation Show Moscow’s Fear of an Afghan Flip, U.S. Allied Force, US Embassy Kosovo, 24 March Diplomat’s Meeting with Afghan Leader 2019 Helped Put Soviets Over the Edge Operation Allied Force: The NATO Bombing Must Read: Tom Engelhardt, “The Bleeding Of Yugoslavia, Radio Free Europe/ Radio Wound”: Afghanistan and the Implosion of Liberty, 24 March 2019 America, TomDispatch, 24 January 2019 Brett Wilkins, Killing for Credibility: A Look NATO Troops See An Opportunity For Back at the 1999 NATO Air War on Serbia, Afghan Peace In 2019, Tolo News, 2 January AntiWar.com, 23 March 2019 2019 Jasmina Tesanovic, What I Learned When NATO Bombed Belgrade, Balkan Insight, 23 March 2019

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Kosovo grapples with bloody past 20 years, President Trump privately expressed after NATO's first war, NBC News, 22 March his desire to withdraw from NATO. 2019 With Trump, NATO Chief Tries to Navigate Vesko Garcevic, NATO’s Intervention Spending Minefields, New York Times, 2 Changed Western-Russian Relations April 2019 Forever, Balkan Insight, 22 March 2019 Kosovo: disputes continue 20 years after Charles Kupchan, NATO Is Thriving in Spite NATO bombing campaign, The of Trump, Foreign Affairs, 20 March 2019 Conversation, 22 March 2019 Bruce Stokes, For Europe, A Deeply Greta Zarro, ‘Surrounded by the Fire of Polarized U.S. Public is a Bigger Challenge War’: Remembering NATO’s 1999 than Trump, GMF Transatlantic Take, 1 Aggression in Yugoslavia, The Progressive, April 2019 21 March 2019 David Goldman, The transatlantic tussle —

a historical case study on how to handle Libya NATO, War on the Rocks, 18 March 2019

The NATO-led coalition’s military Ted Galen Carpenter, How Will the Growing intervention in Libya in 2011, U.S.-European Split Affect NATO? National ostensibly to implement United Nations Interest, 17 March 2019 Security Council Resolution 1973, Philip Gordon and Jeremy Shapiro, How continues to be a contentious issue. Trump killed the Atlantic Alliance: And how Proponents cite it as an example of the the next President can restore it, Foreign responsibility to protect principle and Affairs, 26 February 2019 others accuse NATO of imperialism. Christiane Hoffmann, Europe's Immense NATO Secretary General calls for end to Security Challenges in the Age of Trump, Libya fighting, NATO News Release, 13 May Spiegel Online, 22 February 2019 2019 Noah Rothman, Would Republicans Go to NATO chief calls on all sides in Libya to end War for NATO? Commentary Magazine, 22 fighting, Middle East Monitor, 10 April 2019 February 2019

Fatima Tlis, Did NATO Cause the Crisis in U.S.-European Relations in the 116th Libya? Polygraph Info, 10 April 2019 Congress, US Congressional Research Service, 4 February 2019 Ted Galen Carpenter, How NATO Pushed the U.S. Into the Libya Fiasco, The American Alexander Vershbow, Can NATO survive Conservative, 21 February 2019 -Obama two more years of Donald Trump? The Hill, officials reveal how relentlessly our 'allies' 21 January 2019 lobbied for this ill-advised regime change Dem rep: Trump pulling US from NATO war. would be grounds for impeachment, The Hill, 15 January 2019

President Trump and the GOP reasserts NATO support after report Transatlantic Bond on Trump’s wavering, The Hill, 15 January 2019 The NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and many government Trump Discussed Pulling U.S. From NATO, officials and commentators across the Aides Say Amid New Concerns Over Russia, New York Times, 14 January 2019 alliance have articulated the importance of the ‘transatlantic bond’ Julianne Smith, Transatlantic ties, and how it has been strengthened in interrupted, Live Mint, 1 January 2019 NATO. However, President Trump’s nationalistic ‘America first’ agenda and Russia-NATO relations ‘shaking of the NATO tree’ suggests that such a bond may only be skin deep Relations between Russia and NATO and close to breaking point. Repeatedly have deteriorated to record post-Cold throughout 2018, for example, War lows. Both sides have competing explanations for this. Within the

28 alliance, there remain disagreements Pavel Baev, Russia Sets an Anniversary about the nature of the Russian threat Ambush for NATO, Eurasia Daily Monitor and how to respond to it. On 14 April, Volume: 16 Issue: 49, 8 April 2019

General Curtis Scaparrotti, the NATO chief calls for confronting Russia in outgoing Supreme Allied Commander speech to Congress, Politico, 3 April 2019

Europe (SACEUR) of NATO Allied Dave Majumdar, Europe's Worst Nightmare: Command Operations General, Here's What a NATO-Russia War Would Look deplored the broken communication Like, National Interest, 31 March 2019 process with Russia and a lack of understanding of “each other’s One of the distinctive features of the signals”. Immediately afterwards, modern Western political narrative with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister regard to NATO is an almost total Alexander Grushko denounced the misunderstanding of how the alliance is current deadlock with NATO, claiming perceived in Russia. cooperation had been discontinued and disagreements with NATO were now Must Read: Ruslan Pukhov, NATO is the obstacle to improving Russian-Western “even deeper than before”. relations, Defense News, 28 March 2019

Kadri Liik, In search of “business not as Ruslan Pukhov, NATO’s growing usual” with Russia, ECFR Commentary, 29 membership, demonization of Putin drive May 2019 anti-Western policies, Defense News, 28 Nikolai Sokov, How NATO Could Solve the March 2019

Suwalki Gap Challenge, National Interest, 1 May 2019 Stealth Hunter: Russia's Deadly S-400 Is Getting Much Closer to NATO's Doorstep, Mathieu Boulègue, Russia and NATO: A National Interest, 27 March 2019 Dialogue of Differences, Chatham House, 25 April 2019 Michael Hunzeker and Alexander Lanoszka, Threading the Needle Through the Suwa ki Dmitri Trenin, It’s Time to Rethink Russia’s ł Gap, EastWest (blog), 26 March 2019 Foreign Policy Strategy, Carnegie Moscow Center, 25 April 2019 Alex Locke, NATO will lose its next air war

Lavrov says US, EU, NATO declarations to Putin's 'formidable beasts' if it waits for won’t change Crimea’s reunification with the F-35 to save it, Defense One, 26 March 2019 Russia, TASS, 23 April 2019

Dave Majumdar, Hell: How Many Millions Blake Stilwell, Russia and NATO just took Would Die In a NATO-Russia War? National one step closer to war, We Are The Mighty (blog), 26 March 2019 Interest, 23 April 2019

Mark Galeotti, Russia and NATO Both Think Cmdr Tony Chavez, US and NATO must Time Is on Their Side, Moscow Times, 16 stand up to Russian aggression on the seas, The Hill, 23 March 2019 April 2019

Russia Has Ceased ‘All’ Cooperation With Decades after the end of the cold war, NATO, Foreign Ministry Official Says, Russia is showing new aggression, The Economist, 14 March 2019 Moscow Times, 15 April 2019

NATO-Russia communication plunges – US spy drone base ‘fully operational’ in Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Belsat Poland, but NATO bemoans ‘Russian’ military build-up, RT, 8 March 2019 News, 15 April 2019

Analysts warn U.S.-Russia tensions could A Dark View of Russia From U.S. NATO Commander, NPR, 7 March 2019 spiral into armed confrontation, nuclear war, Global News, 14 April 2019 Russia defense chief calls Baltic buildup a

'No NATO country will taunt the Russians' response to NATO, Starts and Stripes, 28 February 2019 in the Black Sea, France 24, 14 April 2019 NATO's steps forcing Russia to take tit-for- tat security measures, says defense chief, TASS, 27 February 2019 29

Pompeo says US must not let Russia 'drive the post longer if Stoltenberg sees out wedge' between NATO allies, Euro News, 12 his term. February 2019 NATO members extend secretary general's Viljar Veebel, NATO options and dilemmas term, The Hill, 28 March 2019 for deterring Russia in the Baltic States, Defence Studies, Vol. 18 No.2, 2018, pp. North Atlantic Council decides to extend 229-251 the Secretary General's mandate, NATO News Release, 28 March 2019 NATO, Russia Meeting Fails to Resolve Dispute Over Russian Missile, Moscow The Secretary General’s Annual Report, Times, 25 January 2019 2018, NATO, March 2019

After meeting Russians, NATO chief says Secretary General’s Annual Report: "NATO: ‘no real progress’ on nuclear treaty, fit for the future", NATO News Release, 14 Politico, 25 January 2019 March 2019

NATO-Russia Council meets in Brussels, NATO News Release, 25 January 2019 Special Forces

Press conference by NATO Secretary In February 2019, Croatia, Hungary, General Jens Stoltenberg following the Slovakia and Slovenia signed a Letter of meeting of the NATO-Russia Council, 25 January 2019 Intent (LOI) to establish a Regional Special Operations Component Could Russia ever join NATO? Debating Command (R-SOCC). Partner nation Europe, 23 January 2019 Austria also signed the LOI. This INF Treaty to be on agenda of Russia-NATO follows an earlier initiative in June Council meeting, says senior Russian 2018, when Belgium, Denmark and the diplomat, TASS, 21 January 2019 Netherlands signed a Memorandum of

NATO, Russian ambassadors to meet on Understanding (MOU) for the creation Friday, Reuters, 21 January 2019 of a Composite Special Operations Component Command (C-SOCC). Once Stephen Blank, Message to NATO: Don’t forget the Black Sea and the Balkans, The operational, these two Special Forces Hill, 20 January 2019 Commands are expected to participate in the NATO Response Force and could Margarete Klein, Russia’s Military Policy in support NATO operations, as well as the Post-Soviet Space Aims, Instruments other multinational missions. and Perspectives, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik/ German Institute for In April, the official school for the US International and Security Affairs, SWP Special Operations Command released Research Paper 1, January 2019 a study, “Support to Resistance:

Strategic Purpose and Effectiveness”, Secretary General’s Annual which covers 47 distinct cases of US Report special forces trying to intervene in various countries from 1941-2003. It On 14 March, Jens Stoltenberg includes the US special forces’ role in presented his Annual Report for 2018, two NATO interventions: Kosovo (1999) his fourth as Secretary General. Later in and Serbia (1999-2000). the month NATO announced that it had extended his mandate for two years, International Special Training Centre offers making the former Norwegian premier elite NATO SOF combat medical course, DVIDS, 1 May 2019 one of the longest-serving heads of the military alliance. Stoltenberg, who Will Irwin, Support to Resistance: Strategic assumed office in 2014, will now hold Purpose and Effectiveness, US Joint Special the post until 30 September 2022. Only Operations University, JSOU Report 19-2, former Dutch Foreign Affairs Minister April 2019 Joseph Luns, who spent 13 years in office from 1971, will have served in

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Troops from 12 countries to take part in special force exercise in Lithuania, The Security News from Baltic Times, 1 April 2019 NATO Member States:

Four Allies and one partner will create a regional Special Forces command, NATO Albania News Release, 13 February 2019 NATO will spend over $58 million on the first stage of turning the military Transparency, Accountability and airport at Kucova into a support base Good Governance for logistics, training and exercises.

Representatives from NATO nations NATO footprint in Albania to grow with and partner countries gathered in construction projects at former Soviet air Washington DC in March to discuss how base, Stars and Stripes, 26 January 2019 to promote better governance, accountability and transparency in the Belgium defence and security sector. They were joined by delegates from international In February, protesters breached a organisations, NGOs and the private security fence at the Kleine Brogel air sector for the three-day “NATO 2019 base to protest against its stockpiling Building Integrity Conference”, with a of US nuclear weapons (see ‘nuclear focus on the challenges to build weapons’ section above). capable defence institutions. Green MEPs occupy Belgian F-16 runway in NATO Conference discusses the impact of anti-nuclear protest, The Guardian, 20 poor governance as a security risk, NATO February 2019 News Release, 5 March 2019

Bulgaria Women, Peace and Security In January, Bulgaria’s Government NATO first published an action plan in agreed to start talks with the United 2007 to advance the Women, Peace and States to buy eight new combat aircraft, Security agenda. In July 2018 a new becoming the latest Eastern European NATO/EAPC Policy and Action Plan was NATO member to meet a call by US endorsed by Heads of State and President Donald Trump to increase Government at the NATO Summit, and military spending. Prime Minister Boyko in September 2018 the plan was made Borissov’s cabinet will negotiate to buy public. new Lockheed Martin F-16 Block 70 fighters worth an estimated 1.8 billion- NATO Special Envoy for Women, Peace and lev ($1 billion). Security visits Colombia, NATO News Release, 9 May 2019 The Bulgarian Parliament has approved

NATO reaffirms its commitment to the establishment of a Joint Special combatting conflict-related sexual and Operations Command. It will be directly gender based violence, NATO News subordinated to the Chief of Defence of Release, 23 April 2019 the Bulgarian armed forces, General

Magda Jakubowska, NATO Is Stronger with Andrey Botsev, and will include the Women On Board, Visegrad Insights, 8 existing 68th Special Forces Brigade March 2019 based in Plovdiv, comprising three battalions. According to Gen Botsev,

the new command will commence operations in October this year.

Bulgaria to establish Joint Special Operations Command, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 21 May 2019

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Lyubomir Monov, NATO Under Pressure, Group of Reginans protest Canada's Journal of Strategic Security Vol.12, no. 1, involvement in NATO, Regina Leader-Post, 2019, pp. 1-14 31 March 2019

NATO Secretary General praises Bulgaria’s Yves Engler, Canada and 70th Anniversary strategic role in the Black Sea region, NATO of NATO, Dissident Voice, 30 March 2019 News Release, 1 March 2019 Feds to again underspend on new military Bulgaria Eyes F-16s as NATO's Eastern kit, threatening NATO target, CTV, 4 March States Ramp Up Spending, Bloomberg, 9 2019 January 2018 Canada bids for mothballed prototype drone from Germany, Reuters, 20 February Canada 2019

In January, the NATO Secretary General Canada, U.S. must do more to check called on China to treat the two Russia's military moves in the Arctic, says NORAD chief, CBC, 12 February 2019 Canadian citizens detained in the country "fairly and with due process". Canada echoes NATO, blames Russia for Jens Stoltenberg said he was following U.S. pullout from nuclear treaty, The Canadian Press, 1 February 2019 the situation of the Canadians detained in China in December 2018 "with NATO chief: China must treat arrested concern" in his first public comments Canadians fairly, The Canadian Press, 31 about the case. The Canadians were January 2019 detained in apparent retaliation for the David Pugliese, Nearly three years after arrest of a top Chinese Huawei Trudeau's promise, Canadian weapons for executive. In May, the two were Kurds still sit in a Montreal warehouse, formally arrested and charged with Ottawa Citizen, 3 January 2019 espionage.

In April, the Canadian House of Czech Republic Commons foreign affairs committee The Czech Republic celebrated 20 years urged the Government to work with in NATO having joined the alliance NATO to help protect the country’s together with Hungary and Poland on Arctic sovereignty and to determine 12 March 1999. Russia’s military intentions in the region. The study was published Grzegorz Kozłowski, 20 years of the Czech shortly after Russia outlined an Republic, Hungary and Poland in NATO: ambitious plan to increase Russia’s Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow, EESTI – Arctic presence, including expanding Estonia, 22 April 2019 its fleet of nuclear-powered icebreakers Czechs View NATO and EU as Cornerstones and building new ports and other of Peace and Prosperity, VoA, 8 April 2019 infrastructure. 20 years of Czechia in NATO: Key Tamara Lorincz, NATO is a wrecking ball moments, Radio Prague, 14 March 2019 and Canada should quit the alliance, The Czech PM says defence spending rising to ChronicleHerald, 25 April 2019 reach NATO target, Reuters, 12 March 2019

Committee calls on Canada to co-operate Czech Republic marks 20 years as NATO with NATO to respond to Russia in Arctic, member, assesses new threats, Radio The Star, 10 April 2019 Praha, 11 March 2019

House panel urges Canada to work with

NATO to protect Arctic sovereignty, Global Denmark News, 10 April 2019

Canada's window to defend the Arctic is Denmark will raise its military spending closing, MP warns, CBC, 4 April 2019 to 1.5 per cent of its GDP in 2023, up from 1.35 per cent planned this year,

32 the Danish defence minister said in France January. On 22 January 2019, Emmanuel Macron NATO-member Denmark to hike military and Angela Merkel signed a new treaty spending to 1.5 percent of GDP, Reuters, on “Franco-German cooperation and 29 January 2019 integration” in Aachen. Complementing the 1963 Elysée Treaty which

Estonia symbolized the reconciliation between Germany and France in the post-war In February, Estonia concluded its period, the Aachen Treaty aims to investigation into the AMRAAM air-to- further strengthen the ties between the air missile launched by a Spanish NATO two countries in the domains of Baltic Air Policing aircraft on 7 August economy, culture, administration, 2018 in the course of an air exercise in environment, diplomacy and defence. Estonian air space. The investigation In April, a leak of classified French found the missile was accidentally fired defence ministry documents disclosed as a result of the pilot’s failure to publicly for the first time the use of comply with the safety rules and French-made weapons in the on-going regulations and not by a systematic war in Yemen. French arms, including error, the Estonian ministry of defence tanks and laser-guided missile systems, said in a statement. At the end of were sold to Saudi Arabia and the March, Estonia marked the 15th United Arab Emirates. In May, the anniversary of the country's accession French Government confirmed a new to NATO. shipment of weapons to Saudi Arabia. From 29 April-17 May, Estonia hosted France’s Defence Minister Parly refused the annual NATO exercise Spring to identify the types of arms but Storm, a large-scale live exercise of the reaffirmed France’s stance that they Estonian Defence Forces, with have been used only for defensive participation from NATO’s enhanced purposes by Saudi Arabia. Forward Presence and other Allied European ‘Army’ Wouldn’t Hurt NATO, forces. This year’s training involved France’s Macron Says, Bloomberg, 24 May approximately 10,000 soldiers and 2019 hundreds of combat vehicles and aircraft. France to deploy hundreds of troops, tanks, on Russia border, Newsweek, 19 April 2019

Josh Gold, How Estonia uses Cybersecurity French minister expresses concern about to Strengthen its Position in NATO, long-term U.S. commitment to NATO, International Centre for Defence and Reuters, 18 March 2019 Security, 27 May 2019 France questions if US support for NATO is Spring Storm 2019 NATO exercise goes on 'perennial', France 24, 18 March 2019 in Estonia, Army Recognition, 14 May 2019 Arthur P.B. Laudrain, France’s New “Spring Storm” exercise started in Estonia Offensive Cyber Doctrine, Lawfare, 26 as part of a plan to “contain” Russia, February 2019 Defence Blog, 1 May 2019 Elie Perot, The Aachen Mutual Defence NATO accession 15 years ago great Clause: A Closer Look At The Franco- unifying event, says prime minister, ERR German Treaty, Egmont Security Policy News, 29 March 2019 Brief, No. 105, February 2019

Estonia concludes the investigation to the Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer and Martin accidental air-to-air missile firing, Estonian Quencez, U.S. ‘Burden-Shifting’ Strategy in World, 25 February 2019 Africa Validates France’s Ambition for

Josh Rubin, NATO Fears That This Town Will Greater European Strategic Autonomy, GMF Be the Epicenter of Conflict With Russia, Transatlantic Take, 23 January 2019

The Atlantic, 24 January 2019

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Germany to raise its share of NATO's budget by €5 billion ($5.6 billion) to €47.3 billion Germany decided in January to exclude this year. The increase would amount the F-35 from further consideration as to 1.35 per cent of GDP — still a long a replacement for its ageing Tornado way off the 2 per cent target. However, fleet. The German defence ministry said the increase would be the biggest for it had decided to acquire either more Germany since the end of the Cold War Eurofighters from Airbus, the European in 1991. group, or Boeing-made F-18s.

NATO forces would stop Germany informs NATO of huge defense communicating with their German budget increase: report, Deutsche Welle, 17 May 2019 colleagues if Berlin uses Chinese firm Huawei for its super-fast 5G telecom Germany 'hypocritical' on NATO: US envoy infrastructure, US General Curtis to Germany Richard Grenell, Deutsche Welle, 9 May 2019 Scaparrotti warned in March. "We're concerned about their Germany Needs a Global Role to Suit Its telecommunications backbone being Size, Bloomberg Editorial, 6 May 2019 compromised in the sense that, Merkel Partners Reject Trump’s ‘Weapon particularly with 5G, the bandwidth Fetishism’ and NATO Goal, Bloomberg, 3 capability and ability to pull data is May 2019 incredible," Scaparrotti, NATO's Germany’s F-35 fighter rebuff raises Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, questions for Nato partners, Financial told the US House Armed Services Times, 29 April 2019 Committee. Germany’s low defence spending weakens In April, it was reported that Germany's Nato, FT Editorial, 21 April 2019 security council, consisting of German conservative leader blasts SPD over Chancellor Angela Merkel and her chief NATO spending target, Reuters, 12 April ministers, approved shipments of 2019 weapons parts to countries directly involved in the war in Yemen, including Matthew Karnitschnig, NATO’s Germany hatefest, Politico, 5 April 2019 Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The approvals come two weeks after the Sebastian Sprenger, Germany muddles German Government extended a ban through another NATO shindig, Defense on arms sales to Saudi Arabia, which News, 5 April 2019 was originally put in place after the Germany split on NATO defense spending death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. target: survey, Deutsche Welle, 4 April That extension, however, made a 2019 conditional exception for systems Emma DiNapoli, German Courts Weigh developed jointly with other countries Legal Responsibility for U.S. Drone Strikes, amid concern from France and Britain. Lawfare, 4 April 2019

A new survey published in April by Sudha David-Wilp, Could NATO Be the German public broadcaster ARD Downfall of Angela Merkel’s Government? showed that a majority of Germans Foreign Policy, 2 April 2019 support the role of NATO, but not the If Berlin picks Chinese firm for 5G, NATO alliance's defence spending target. A will not communicate: US general, France slim majority (53 per cent) of Germans 24, 13 March 2019

"do not support" Germany raising Loren Thompson, Germany's Policy Choices defence spending to reach the NATO Are Hastening The Decline Of NATO, target of 2 percent of GDP. Forty-three Forbes, 4 March 2019 percent backed the idea. Philipp Lange, Total Defence How Germany In May, German news agency dpa should implement a whole-of government reported that the Government is ready national and collective defence, German

34

Federal Academy for Security Policy, of the Hungarian language. “In the Security Policy Working Paper No. 2/2018 Brussels Declaration and in the

Germany rebukes Trump over criticism of assessment of Ukraine’s Annual Nato spending, The Guardian, 15 February Programme, all allies urge Ukraine to 2019 fully implement the recommendations

John Louth, Germany Calling: The of the Venice Commission,” Ms Bundeswehr, Acquisition and a Broken Gottemoeller added. The deputy Narrative, RUSI Commentary, 13 February secretary general’s statement came 2019 after a meeting with Hungarian foreign minister Péter Szijjártó and defence Germany 'not spending enough' on minister Tibor Benkő in Budapest. defense, US ambassador says, Deutsche Welle, 10 February 2019 The Hungarian government has

Hans Binnendijk and Jim Townsend, continued to block talks between NATO German F-35 decision sacrifices NATO and Ukraine following a newly-adopted capability for Franco-German industrial Ukrainian law limiting the use of cooperation, Defense News, 8 February minority languages. Passed by 2019 Ukraine’s parliament on 25 April the

Germany plans military spending hike, but law makes the use of the Ukrainian is it enough to appease NATO?, Deutsche language compulsory for all citizens, Welle, 6 February 2019 except for private conversations and

Germany reassures NATO on defense religious ceremonies. spending target: report, Reuters, 6 Melissa Hooper and Gregory Feifer, Trump February 2019 Is Letting Orban Walk All Over the United NATO Chief: Germany must continue to States, Foreign Policy, 11 May 2019 raise defense budget, Reuters, 6 February Hungary to block Ukraine NATO bid over 2019 language law, Emerging Europe, 29 April Germany could miss even reduced NATO 2019 defense spending goal: document, Reuters, Jonathan Katz, NATO Interests and 4 February 2019 Democratic Values at Stake in Trump-Orbán Germany pledges €110 million to boost Meeting, GMF, 13 May 2019 NATO battalion infrastructure in Lithuania, NATO supports Hungary over Ukraine's Defense Post, 4 February 2019 education law, UNIAN, 26 February 2019 Germany misses key NATO defense Joerg Forbrig, Hungary and Poland: What spending deadline, Stars and Stripes, 1 Next for Europe’s “Illiberal Vanguard”? February 2019 GMF, 31 January 2019

Josef Janning, Crunch time: Germany and Hungary’s NATO membership is an Europe after Mattis, ECFR Commentary, 10 exceptional and unique issue, Hungary January 2019 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 15 January 2019 Germany to lead Nato’s very high readiness joint task force, Army Technology, 7 January 2019 Iceland

Germany steps up to lead NATO high While the only NATO member without readiness force, NATO News Release, 1 armed forces and defence ministry, January 2019 Iceland is investing in new defence and security capabilities and sending more

personnel to NATO structures and Hungary missions. US forces, having left Iceland In February, Rose Gottemoeller, in 2006, are now returning on a NATO’s deputy secretary general, said rotational basis to enhance the that NATO expresses solidarity with monitoring of the so-called Greenland- Hungary in the dispute over Ukraine’s Iceland-UK gap. A network of US and 2018 education law that limits the use Icelandic assets—including Boeing P8 35 maritime patrol aircraft, coast guard Maria Elena Gutierrez, Italian Foreign vessels, helicopters and radars— Policy: The More Things Change, The More monitor the increased Russian aerial They Stay The Same, GMF Transatlantic Take, 25 February 2019 and submarine activity in the region.

In a BBC interview in May, Iceland's Italy could be about to challenge Trump over NATO spending, CNBC, 11 February Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir said 2019 she does not believe Iceland should be a member of NATO, but that her government would follow the country's Latvia existing national security policy of The multinational battle group in Latvia which NATO membership was a is based at Camp Ādaži. It is led by "cornerstone". She said this was a Canada and consists of approximately "compromise" with her coalition 1,400 soldiers from Albania, the Czech partners. Ms Jakobsdóttir became Republic, Italy, Canada, Montenegro, Iceland's prime minister after her Left- Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain Green Movement secured a coalition who perform rotational duties in Latvia deal in 2017. by participating in training with Latvia's Iceland Foreign Minister Praises NATO own National Armed Forces. Support Against Russian Intrusions, Well-prepared and locally invested: Chinese Exploration, USNI News, 24 May Interview with commander of NATO's 2019 Latvia-based battle group, LVW, 25 Iceland’s Role in Transatlantic Security February 2019 Growing, NATO Parliamentary Assembly Latvia to host new NATO HQ, Emerging News Release, 14 May 2019 Europe, 18 February 2019 Iceland's Green PM Jakobsdóttir on Nato Having a say in global matters: 15 years membership, BBC News, 7 May 2019 since Latvia joined the EU and NATO, LSM, 3 January 2019 Italy

A NATO Centre of Excellence for Lithuania Security Force Assistance (SFA) opened NATO’s multinational battlegroup in in Cesano, Italy, in late March. The SFA Lithuania took part in exercise Eager Centre, with personnel mainly from Leopard in Pabrade in April. The Italy, has the task of contributing to the exercise mobilised around 650 troops, development and testing of concepts, including Czech, Dutch, German and doctrines, lessons learned in theatres Norwegian forces. It provided an and to standardization of capability opportunity for the battlegroup to within the alliance in the SFA sector, enhance its readiness, testing its ability especially in relation to operations in to deploy troops and equipment. the South and East. The Centre was formally established on 13 December NATO battlegroup exercises in Lithuania, 2017 and achieved NATO accreditation NATO News Release, 23 April 2019 in December 2018. NATO forces conduct cold weather training

in Lithuania, NATO News Release, 18 Italian Eurofighters to enhance Air Policing February 2019 capabilities over Romania, NATO Air

Command News Release, 29 April 2019

Helle Dale, Hungary Is Key to Shoring Up Montenegro

NATO Alliance, The Daily Signal, 19 April In May, a court in Montenegro handed 2019 five-year jail terms to two pro-Russian The opening ceremony of the NATO Centre for Security Force Assistance in Cesano, opposition politicians for trying to Esercito News Release, 28 March 2019 topple the government in October

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2016. The court also found 12 others employee of the Chinese guilty, including two Russians, telecommunications equipment maker allegedly secret agents, tried in was arrested on spying charges. absentia. Prosecutors said the plotters In March it was announced US defence had Kremlin support to assassinate officials have made an offer to then-Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic permanently station US troops in and block NATO accession. Russia has Poland. The Polish Government had called the coup inquiry absurd. previously offered to contribute at least Montenegro jails 'Russian coup plot' $2 billion, and perhaps more, to the leaders, BBC News, 9 May 2019 potential base. In the meantime, it was announced that a $260 million storage NATO Secretary General: Montenegro is a valued Ally building stability in the Western facility for US military equipment, Balkans, NATO News Release, 6 March including armoured vehicles, 2019 ammunition and weapons to arm a full brigade, would be established in Powidz, some 200 kilometres west of Norway Warsaw. The funding for the facility will

In March, the Norwegian Defence come from the NATO Security Minister said that the country has Investment Programme (NSIP), to which electronic proof that Russian forces all 29 alliance members contribute. disrupted global positioning system NATO Holds a Major Air Defence Exercise in signals during recent NATO war games Poland: Tobruq Legacy-19, Defence 24, 30 and demanded an explanation from its May 2019 eastern neighbour. Charlie Gao, Poland's Tried to 'Merge' NATO trains for Russian invasion in Norway, CBS Russian and NATO Tanks. How Did It Work News, 24 April 2019 Out? National Interest, 25 May 2019

Norway says it proved Russian GPS David Axe, Poland Will be Getting the F-35. interference during NATO exercises, Here's Why That's Big News, National Reuters, 18 March 2019 Interest, 23 April 2019

Norway accuses Russia of jamming its Sebastian Sprenger and Matthew Bodner, military systems, Defense News, 8 March As NATO banks on Poland, is the country 2019 becoming the new face of a nervous Europe? Defense News, 7 April 2019 Norwegian Foreign Minister Admits to Letting Libya Down After NATO Campaign, Bogdan Klich, NATO’s Stoltenberg Paradox, Sputnik, 11 January 2019 Project Syndicate, 5 April 2019

Adam Bielan, Poland's Place in NATO and Poland the European Union, The National Interest, 4 April 2019 Poland is an important contributor to NATO's Enhanced Forward Presence NATO foots bill for massive US combat (eFP) on the eastern and southern flank depot in Poland, Defense News, 28 March 2019 and to NATO's tailored Forward Presence (tFP). It is one of the host NATO confirms it is planning to build an countries, it delegates troops to one of installation for the American army in Poland, Brussels Times, 24 March 2019 the eFP groups, and it hosts a multinational division headquarters in NATO Confirms Plans For $260 Million U.S. the city of Elblag, which has the task of Storage Site In Poland, Radio Free Europe/ coordinating the activities of all eFP Radio Liberty, 24 March 2019 groups. Michael Peck, Want to Stop Russia from

In January, Poland’s internal affairs Invading the Baltic States? Turn Poland Into minister called for the EU and NATO to a Military Powerhouse, National Interest, 23 March 2019 take a “joint stance” on Huawei after an 37

NATO Plans Facility in Poland to Store U.S. $3.5 billion Patriot missile defence Military Equipment, Wall street Journal, 22 system, the deal with Russia could yet March 2019 be cancelled and the pivot to Moscow

Prepare to man Fort Trump? US has made (as witnessed by increased Turkish- Poland a ‘very serious robust offer’ for Russian cooperation in Syria) put on base, Military Times, 13 March 2019 hold.

Poland celebrates 20 years of NATO In January, Turkish President Recep membership, Business Standard, 5 March Tayyip Erdoğan declined to provide any 2019 assurances that Turkey would refrain Paul Taylor, Poland’s Short-Sighted Military from targeting Kurdish forces in Syria if Dependence on the United States, Carnegie the United States withdraws its troops. Europe, 12 February 2019 On Twitter, President Trump

Poland calls for 'joint' EU-Nato stance on threatened to “devastate” Turkey Huawei after spying arrest, The Guardian, economically should it attack US 13 January 2019 Kurdish partners in Syria following US

Will Sending More U.S. Troops to Poland withdrawal and urged Turkey to create Really Deter Russia?, National Interest, 2 a 20-mile safe zone. Turkish Foreign January 2019 Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu responded that nothing could be achieved by threatening Turkey and that strategic Spain partners should refrain from In February, a US appeal for NATO allies communicating with each other over to fill the void left by its imminent social media. withdrawal from Syria was dismissed by In April, the United States cancelled Spain’s foreign minister. Spain’s Josep equipment transfers to Turkey related Borrell said at a briefing in Munich, to Turkey’s purchase of F-35 aircraft, in “Spain and the majority of countries response to Turkey’s purchase of aren’t prepared to step in for the US Russian surface-to-air missile systems. after a withdrawal that was decided in a If the purchase goes ahead it could unilateral way, by surprise”. trigger US sanctions under the

Spain Dismisses U.S. Appeal for NATO Countering America’s Adversaries Allies to Fill the Void Left in Syria, Time, 16 Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). February 2019 Neither carrots nor sticks has so far compelled Erdogan to change course, however. Turkey In early May US lawmakers announced Turkey’s planned acquisition of the S- a bill to bar the sale of the F-35 to 400 anti-aircraft missile system from Turkey if Ankara buys the Russian Russia (at a cost of $2.5 billion) has system. The House bill came days after strained an already tense relationship the Turkish President reportedly with the United States. Because of discussed with US President Donald concerns that the Russian system could Trump a Turkish proposal to establish pose security risks if integrated with a joint committee over Turkey’s plans NATO systems, US officials have been to purchase the S-400. warning that Turkey could be sanctioned and expelled from the F-35 Melik Kaylan, Why Turkey's President programme if it takes delivery of the S- Erdogan Wants Those Russian Missiles, 400 system. Turkey is set to buy 100 F- Forbes, 30 May 2019

35As from the United States and Şaban Kardaş, Turkey’s S400 vs. F35 Turkish companies are also part of the Conundrum and its Deepening Strategic programme’s industrial base. With the Partnership with Russia, GMF, On Turkey United States tabling an alternative No.9, 28 May 2019

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Kiliç Buğra Kanat, The function of NATO for Turkey has much to demand back from Turkey, Daily Sabah, 24 May 2019 NATO: Academic, Hurriyet Daily News, 15 April 2019 US threatens to impose sanctions on NATO ally Turkey, Deutsche Welle, 24 May 2019 Barçin Yinanç, Turkey and allies need to decouple NATO and the US, Hurriyet Daily Aaron Stein, The day after S-400: the News, 11 April 2019 Turkish-American relationship will get worse, War on the Rocks, 23 May 2019 Burhanettin Duran, NATO at 70 and the S- 400 dispute, Daily Sabah, 8 April 2019 David Phillips, It is time to review Turkey’s NATO membership, Ahval, 20 May 2019 Sumantra Maitra, Turkey is NATO’s biggest problem, Not Trump, The Federalist, 5 April Burhanettin Duran, NATO in crisis, Daily 2019 Sabah, 8 May 2019 NATO commander nominee: Turkey NATO Allies stand with Turkey: Secretary 'should not get the F-35' if it buys Russian General Stoltenberg, NATO News Release, 6 defense system, The Hill, 2 April 2019 May 2019 How Will Turkey’s Purchase of Russia’s S- NATO allies stand in solidarity with Turkey, 400 Air Defense System Affect Ties with Secretary-General Stoltenberg says, Daily NATO?, Carnegie Middle East Center, 21 Sabah, 5 May 2019 March 2019 Turkey not distancing itself from NATO Burhanettin Duran, Turkey's S-400 deal: A with Russian missiles deal: minister, challenge to NATO? Daily Sabah, 10 March Reuters, 5 May 2019 2019 Lawmakers offer bill to block F-35 for Erdoğan: Purchasing S-400 not related to Turkey, Defense News, 3 May 2019 NATO, F-35, Hurriyet Daily News, 10 March Merve Tahiroglu and Greg Everett, Ankara's 2019 realignment with Russia will cost Turkey Turkey says in Patriot missile talks with more than it thinks, The Hill, 29 April 2019 U.S., EuroNews, 1 March 2019 Tarik Oğuzlu, NATO's image in the eyes of Erdogan: NATO gives arms to 'terrorists' Turkey, Daily Sabah, 27 April 2019 but not to Turkey, Al Jazeera, 18 February H. Ankin Unver, Russia Has Won the 2019 Information War in Turkey, Foreign Policy, David Graeber, America's Kurdish allies risk 21 April 2019 being wiped out – by Nato, The Guardian, 1 Turkey: US Didn't Respond to Offer to February 2019 Check S-400 Anti-Aircraft Missile Systems, “Physical buffer zone” needed in northern Military.com, 20 April 2019 Syria – former NATO supreme commander, Turkey is 'taking into account' NATO Ahval, 12 January 2019 concerns over S-400, Al Jazeera, 19 April Şaban Kardaş, The Domestic-Regional 2019 Nexus in Turkey’s Counterterrorism Policy, Soner Gagaptay, The Turkish rupture could GMF On Turkey, No.8, 8 January 2019 cause a fissure in NATO, The Hill, 16 April Trump Administration Offers Turkey Patriot 2019 Missiles So It Won’t Buy Weapons System Turkey says buying Russian defense system From Russia: Reports, Newsweek, 3 January should not trigger U.S. sanctions, Reuters, 2019 15 April 2019

Vladimir Frolov, Our Man in NATO: Why United Kingdom Putin Lucked Out With Recep Erdogan, Moscow Times, 15 April 2019 A report by the UK House of Lords international relations select Kadri Tastan and Tobias Kutschka, The Implications of Eastern Mediterranean Gas committee said ministers are not for Turkey, GMF, 15 April 2019 making independent checks to see if arms supplied by the UK to Saudi Arabia are being used in breach of the

39 law, but is instead relying on NATO Secretary General Jens inadequate investigations by the Stoltenberg praised the UK for Saudis, its allies in the war. The all- maintaining a continuous at-sea party Lords committee said that the UK nuclear deterrent for 50 years in a letter is on “the wrong side of the law” by to Prime Minister Theresa May. “In sanctioning arms exports to Saudi NATO, we appreciate this enormous Arabia for the war in Yemen and should commitment to our shared security by suspend some of the export licences. generations of Royal Navy submariners and their families, by scores of In April, the Court of Appeal in London dedicated support personnel in the considered the legality of continuing United Kingdom's Armed Forces and UK arms sales to Saudi as part of a case Civil Service, and by partners in brought by the Campaign Against the industry”, the Secretary General said. At Arms Trade (CAAT). The case follows a least one Royal Navy submarine 2017 High Court judgement that carrying nuclear missiles has been on permitted the continued export of arms undersea patrol at all times since April to Saudi Arabia. 1969. This mission, called Operation Relentless, is the longest sustained Every defence study agrees that Britain military operation ever undertaken by primarily needs to be defended from the UK. technological and robotic warfare. For soldiers, it needs a core army, trained Hunt: Britain Has Helped 16 NATO Allies and equipped for emergency Tackle Russia Hacking Attempts, Radio Free deployment, but nothing beyond what Europe/ Radio Liberty, 23 May 2019 is required by any other European state. Cyber innovation at the forefront of UK’s As for Williamson’s idea that Britain’s approach to modern warfare, UK MoD Press role is to police “Asia and the Release, 22 May 2019 Caribbean”, has this been cleared with NATO Secretary General marks 50 years of the Americans, let alone the citizens of UK submarine nuclear deterrent, NATO those countries? News Release, 21 May 2019

Simon Jenkins, British ‘lethality’? Gavin NATO chief warns Britain over Huawei risk, Williamson’s brain has gone absent without France 24, 14 May 2019 leave, The Guardian, 11 February 2019 Sidharth Kaushal, A Critical Enabler for

Also in April, Britain’s parliamentary Power Projection: Options for a UK Missile financial watchdog, the National Audit Defence Capability in an Age of Escalation Control, RUSI Occasional Paper, May 2019 Office’s (NAO), published a report on the Ministry of Defence’s snail-like Leslie Vinjamuri and Jason Naselli, Brexit progress on de-fuelling and Makes NATO Even More Important, Brink News, 15 April 2019 dismantling the country’s retired nuclear submarines. It reveals a long Trevor Taylor, Nearly Forgotten but not history of failure resulting in 20 retired Gone: The Legacy of the UK’s Retired submarines being kept in storage at Nuclear Submarines, RUSI Commentary, 5 Rosyth and Devonport, including the April 2019 original Polaris boats which left service Hans Kundnani, To Preserve NATO, Britain in the 1980s. The MoD does not know Must Help Reinvent It, Chatham House, 1 how long disposal will take or what it April 2019 will cost. CND marks NATO birthday with ‘70 years New Defence Secretary Penny Mordaunt too many’ protest at London HQ, CND News Release, 29 March 2019 spoke at the NATO Cyber Defence Pledge Conference in London in May 'Serious' questions over SAS involvement in where she announced £22 million of Yemen war, The Guardian, 27 March 2019 funding for new Army cyber centres.

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Euan Carss, Brexit bravado: Can the UK efforts to withdraw from NATO, and to build a new continental coalition? ECFR work with and support NATO. In Commentary, 11 March 2019 February, the US House of

Defence Secretary announces £11million Representatives voted to end US boost to chemical defences, UK military assistance for Saudi Arabia’s Government News Release, 3 March 2019 war in Yemen. The 248-to-177 vote will

Defence Secretary Announces £235 Million pressure the Republican-controlled Submarine Nuclear Propulsion Deal, UK Senate to respond.

Government News Release, 25 February An opinion poll in March found that a 2019 majority of Americans believe both Defence in Global Britain, Speech by NATO and the United Nations are Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson, RUSI, necessary and relevant entities. 11 February 2019 Seventy-seven per cent believed NATO

Brexit could boost UK's military standing, should be maintained and 66 per cent says defence secretary, The Guardian, 11 said the UN plays a necessary role in February 2019 the world, despite President Trump

John Hemmings, Charting Britain’s Moves questioning the need for both entities. in the South China Sea, RUSI Commentary, Also in March, President Donald Trump 6 February 2019 rolled back an Obama-era policy that Must Read: David Dodwell, Britain’s naval required the government to publicly ambitions to once again rule the waves are report on the number of civilians killed laughable at best and make no sense at all, in airstrikes outside of conventional South China Morning Post, 6 January 2019 warzones. This means, that the official

death toll from CIA strikes in places like United States Yemen and Pakistan will no longer be made public. The figures previously In January, US national security adviser released were often much lower than John Bolton said the United States will independent estimates, but their not withdraw troops from Syria until the release was still seen as a significant Islamic State is defeated and Turkey step towards greater transparency on provides assurances it will not strike operations often characterised by their Kurdish fighters, contradicting opacity. President Trump’s announcement in December 2018 of a rapid withdrawal. A study published in March found links between drone strikes and additional Also in January, The Trump suicide attacks in Pakistan. The United administration released its long- States, UK and other NATO countries awaited Missile Defense Review (MDR), have emphasised drone strikes as a which seeks to adapt US missile primary weapon of war and counter defence policy, posture, and terrorism in several countries. In programmes to the strategic Pakistan, during 2011-18 there were environment of great power 199 confirmed drone strikes and 182 competition (see ‘missile defence’ suicide bombings. Each drone strike in section above). Pakistan caused an average of 20

Amid renewed concerns over President deaths and 48 injuries. The findings Trump’s commitment to NATO, the US from this study appear to show that the House of Representatives voted 357-22 two are linked, with drones strikes in support of the NATO Support Act, associated with a rise in suicide attacks. which states the “sense of Congress” The United States signed the Arms that the president “shall not withdraw Trade Treaty in 2013 under President the United States from NATO”. It also Barack Obama but never ratified it. states that “the policy of the United President Trump announced at the States” is to remain in NATO, to reject National Rifle Association’s annual

41 meeting in April that it will “revoke the Tim Kaine and Cory Gardner, Why we stand effect of America’s signature from this with NATO, The Atlantic, 4 April 2019 badly misguided Treaty”. The Treaty Pence targets Germany on NATO defense regulates international trade in spending, The Hill, 3 April 2019 conventional arms and seeks to prevent Remarks by President Trump and NATO and eradicate illicit trade and diversion Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg Before of conventional arms. Expanded Bilateral Meeting, White House, 2

April 2019 surely there’s something to be said for The Future of NATO: New Challenges and building a new agreement or alliance Opportunities, US House of in Europe that would be less driven by Representatives, Committee on Foreign military concerns, less dependent on Affairs Hearing, Washington DC, 2 April American money and weaponry and 2019 – Witnesses: General James L. Jones troops, and more inclusive toward (USMC, ret.); Evelyn N. Farkas (GMF) and Russia Damon Wilson (Atlantic Council)

W. J. Astore, Trump Questions NATO: NATO at 70: A Strategic Partnership for the The Horror! Bracing Views, 17 January 2019 21st Century, US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hearing, Washington DC,

2 April 2019 – Witnesses Ian Brzezinski There are at least 10 separate pots of (Atlantic Council) and Karen Donfried (GMF) money dedicated to fighting wars, Protesters say “No to NATO” in Washington, preparing for yet more wars, and The Real News Network, 30 March 2019 dealing with the consequences of wars Tobin Harshaw, NATO Is Dead. Long Live already fought…. NATO, Bloomberg, 30 March 2019

…. So, our final annual tally for war, Assessing NATO’s Value, Congressional preparations for war, and the impact of Research Service, 28 March 2019 war comes to more than $1.25 trillion - - more than double the Pentagon’s base Rebecca Gordon, How to Make Yourself an Exception to the Rule of Law: John Bolton budget. and Mike Pompeo Defy the International Must Read: William D. Hartung and Mandy Criminal Court, TomDispatch, 26 March Smithberger, Boondoggle, Inc.: Making Sense of 2019 the $1.25 Trillion National Security State Budget, TomDispatch, 7 May 2019 William J. Astore, Whose Blood, Whose Treasure? America's Senior Generals Find No Exits from Endless War, TomDispatch, Must Read: Megan Karlshoej-Pedersen, 19 March 2019 Trump administration’s move away from transparency may undermine US military NATO Alliance Marking 70 Years, Looks to operations, The Strategist, 6 May 2019 Counter Threats, US Department of Defense, 18 March 2019 Andrew Bacevich, Illusions of Victory: How the United States Did Not Reinvent War But Trump Taps Air Force General to Head Up Thought It Did, TomDispatch, 5 May 2019 European Command, NATO Forces, Military.com, 15 March 2019 Allegra Harpootlian and Emily Manna, The End of War Is Just a Beginning: Will US bars entry to International Criminal Technology Stamp a “Forever” on America’s Court investigators, Associated Press, 15 Wars? TomDispatch, 28 April 2019 March 2019

Must Read: Lawrence Wittner, Most Must Read: Allegra Harpootlian, School Americans Actually Reject Trump’s Shooters and Drones: Linking Gun Violence ‘America First’ Policy, Foreign Policy in at Home to America’s Wars Abroad, Focus, 25 April 2019 TomDispatch, 12 March 2019

Kevin Zeese, Greens say ‘No to NATO’ while Larry Lewis, Reflecting on the Civilian war parties give standing ovations to Casualty Executive Order: What Was Lost NATO, Bay View, 14 April 2019 and What Can Now Be Gained, Just Security, 12 March 2019

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United States European Command: Mike Gallagher and Colin Dueck, The Overview and Key Issues, Congressional Conservative Case for NATO, National Research service, 12 March 2019 Review, 30 January 2019

Barry R. Posen, Trump Aside, What’s the Mandy Smithberger and William D. Hartung U.S. Role in NATO? New York Times, 10 Our Man From Boeing: Has the Arms March 2019 Industry Captured Trump’s Pentagon? Luke Hartig, I Helped Write the Exec Order TomDispatch, 29 January 2019 on Public Reporting of Lethal Operations. Curtis Bradley and Jack Goldsmith, Here’s What Trump Has Undone, Just Constitutional Issues Relating to the NATO Security, 8 March 2019 Support Act, Lawfare, 28 January 2019 Trump rolls back transparency on civilian Shanahan Encouraged by NATO Progress drone deaths, The Bureau of Investigative on Operations, Burden-Sharing, US Journalism, 7 March 2019 Department of Defense, 28 January 2019 Gallup: Most Americans support NATO, William J. Astore, The U.S. Military’s Lost United Nations, UPI, 5 March 2019 Wars: Overfunded, Overhyped, and Always Stephanie Savell, Mapping the American Over There, TomDispatch, 27 January 2019 War on Terror: Now in 80 Countries, It Couldn’t Be More Global, TomDispatch, 19 February 2019 …the Constitution should be amended to prohibit suspending, terminating or Pelosi says US needs NATO 'more than withdrawing from treaties that have ever', Deutsche Welle, 19 February 2019 been ratified by the Senate without first Tanguy Struye de Swielande, American obtaining a two-thirds vote of the Leadership and Grand Strategy in an Age of Senate approving the president’s Complexity, Egmont Security Policy Brief request. President Trump has No.106, February 2019 abandoned or threatened to abandon Acting US defense secretary meets wary so many critical treaty relationships NATO allies, Deutsche Welle, 14 February that this check on his power, and that 2019 of his successors, has become

Must Read: James Carroll, Doomsday imperative for national security.

Redux: The Most Dangerous Weapon Ever David Scheffer, former US ambassador, Rolls Off the Nuclear Assembly Line, Letter, New York Times, 1 February 2019 TomDispatch, 12 February 2019

Rebecca Gordon, The Uses of a Well- The idea that the United States could Regulated Militia by an Unregulated withdraw from NATO is surreal.

President: Where Will the National Guard Be Saving NATO, New York Times editorial, 26 Sent in 2019?, TomDispatch, 10 February January 2019 2019

Joan Johnson-Freese and David T. Burbach, Frank Rose, The Trump administration’s The Best Defense Ever? Busting Myths new Missile Defense Review is a mixed bag, about the Trump Administration’s Missile Brookings, 25 January 2019 Defense Review, War on the Rocks, 6 February 2019 Here’s why 22 Republicans voted against blocking Trump from NATO pullout, Derek Chollet, Republicans Threatened Military Times, 24 January 2019 NATO Once Before. Dwight Eisenhower Stopped Them, GMF, 4 February 2019 US House votes overwhelmingly to bar US exit from NATO, Defense News, 22 January Artificial Intelligence and National Security, 2019 US Congressional Research Service, 30 January 2019 Robert Merry, NATO is a Danger, Not a Guarantor of Peace, The American Tom Nichols, Donald Trump and his Conservative, 18 January 2019 Republican minions are playing with nuclear fire on NATO and Russia, USA Today, 30 January 2019

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Senators want legislation to block Trump FINAL WORD over feared NATO pullout, Stars and Stripes, 18 January 2019 Robert Green served for twenty years in the British Royal Navy from 1962-82. He flew in James Pardew, Congress must act now to Buccaneer nuclear strike aircraft and then save NATO from Trump, The Hill, 17 anti-submarine helicopters equipped with January 2019 nuclear depth-bombs. Commander Green Bipartisan senators reintroduce bill to chaired the UK affiliate of the World Court prevent Trump from withdrawing from Project (1991-2004), an international NATO, The Hill, 17 January 2019 citizen campaign which led to the International Court of Justice judgment in Robbie Gramer, Trump Can’t Do That. Can 1996 that the threat or use of nuclear He? On NATO withdrawal and other issues, weapons would generally be illegal. A new it turns out presidential powers are edition of his 2010 book, Security without constrained by norms but not laws, Foreign Nuclear Deterrence, was published in 2018 Policy, 16 January 2019 by Spokesman Books. This is an extract John Feffer, Trump Punts on Syria: The from his article, The new nuclear forever war in the Middle East is far from deterrence and disarmament crisis, Open over, 16 January 2019 Democracy, 3 April 2019.

Must Read: Nick Turse, Bases, Bases, “…the principal guardians of nuclear Everywhere...: Except in the Pentagon’s deterrence—the western group Report, TomDispatch, 8 January 2019 comprising the US, UK and France—have Stephen Zunes, Despite Everything, U.S. struggled to provide intellectual Troops Should Leave Syria, Foreign Policy in coherence as endless adjustments to the Focus, 3 January 2019 theory and doctrine were made to accommodate the latest expansion of the nuclear arms race it had unleashed. IDEAS, FEEDBACK, Uncritical repetition by posturing political

SUGGESTIONS? leaders, careerist experts and mainstream media of simplistic Ideas, feedback, suggestions? We want to soundbites gave it the aura of a state hear from you. Please contact us at NATO religion, to the point where it echoed the Watch with any news and stories for the fable of the emperor with no clothes. Observatory, as well as feedback or suggestions. Nuclear deterrence is based upon a crazy premise: that nuclear war can be made DONATE NOW PLEASE less probable by making it more probable. Worse, it is bedevilled by two NATO Watch is a small non-profit organisation that provides independent oversight and insurmountable contradictions: analysis of an ever-growing NATO. But with - A rational leader cannot make a credible tightly stretched resources we struggle to nuclear threat against an adversary consistently and continually function as an capable of an invulnerable retaliatory effective ‘watchdog’. ‘second strike’. If you share our vision for a transparent and - Yet a second strike would be no more accountable NATO please donate whatever you than posthumous revenge. can afford to help NATO Watch thrive. Click on the picture below to find out how you can make Moreover, unlike conventional war, a donation. following nuclear war—amid millions of dead and untreatable survivors, radioactive poisoning and apocalyptic destruction—the smoke alone from firestorms over cities in a nuclear war in South Asia would blot out the sun around the entire northern hemisphere, causing massive crop failure and global famine.”

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