Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region Regional Synthesis Report 2018 R u s s i a n F e d e r a t i o n
K a z a k h s t a n
KYRGYZ REPUBLIC M o n g o l i a ARMENIA
Georgia U z b e k i s t a n
A z e r b a i j a n Dem People's T u r k m e n i s t a n Rep of Korea C h i n a Republic J a p a n TAJIKISTAN of Korea KYRGYZ REPUBLIC J a m m u a n d A f g h a n i s t a n K a s h m i r I r a n I r a q
P a k i s t a n N e p a l Bhutan
Bangladesh
S a u d i A r a b i a I n d i a O m a n V i e t N a m M y a n m a r
L a o P A C I F I C O C E A N
Y e m e n T h a i l a n d
C a m b o d i a
S o m a l i a Sri Lanka
The designations employed and the presentation of material in the map(s) do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever of WFP concerning the legal or constitutional status of any country, territory or sea area, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers. Malaysia All rights reserved. Reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product for educational or other non-commercial uses are authorized without any prior written permission from the copyright holders provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of material in this information product for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited I n d o n e s i a without written permission. Applications for such permission should be addressed to the Director, Communications Division, e-mail: [email protected]. © WFP 2018
2
Esri, DeLorme, GEBCO, NOAA NGDC, and other contributors R u s s i a n F e d e r a t i o n
This report is part of a larger series of scoping studies on Social Protection K a z a k h s t a n and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region that was commissioned by the World Food Programme in partnership with the University of Maastricht in 2017. Specific country KYRGYZ REPUBLIC M o n g o l i a focused studies have been conducted on Armenia, Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan with a view to contributing fresh evidence and sound policy analysis around social protection issues in relation to food and nutrition ARMENIA security, resulting in a set of country-specific policy recommendations on nutrition-sensitive social protection and safety nets that consider the perspectives of a wide range of stakeholders. The Regional Synthesis Report summarizes the findings of the three studies and provides a more Georgia U z b e k i s t a n general overview of social protection and safety nets issues in relation to food security and nutrition across the three countries, with a summary of A z e r b a i j a n the main trends and a set of consolidated findings andDem recommendations. People's T u r k m e n i s t a n Rep of This research initiative has been conducted under the overall coordination of Carlo Scaramella, Deputy Regional Director, RegionalK oBureaurea for C h i n a North Africa, Middle East, Central Asia and Eastern Europe, World Food Programme (WFP), Cairo with the support of Dipayan Bhattacharyya,Republic Muriel Calo, and Verena Damerau, WFP. The report authors are Franziska J a p a n of Korea TAJIKISTAN Gassmann and Eszter Timar from the University of Maastricht. J a m m u a n d The Social Protection and Safety Nets unit at the UN World Food A f g h a n i s t a n K a s h m i r I r a n Programme’s Regional Bureau for North Africa, Middle East, Central Asia I r a q and Eastern Europe wishes to recognize and extend thanks to the many individuals who took the time to participate in this research. Special thanks are due to Dilbar Bakaeva, Irina Lukashova, Susanna Karapetyan, Heghine P a k i s t a n Manasyan, Arman Udumyan, Luca Molinas, Elmira Bakhshniyan, Sona Harutyunyan, Armen Harutyunyan, Astghik Minasyan, Robert Stepanyan, N e p a l Armenuhi Hovakimyan, Mihran Hakobyan, Karen Pahlevanyan, Hayk Bhutan Galstyan, Karine Saribekyan, Gayane Nasoyan, Anna Jenderedjian, Roman Mogilevskii, Gulsana Turusbekova, Nazgul Tashpaeva, Robert Brudzynski, Nurdolot Sadyrbekov, Zaripa Niyazbekova Lunara Mamytova, Jipara Bangladesh Rysbekova, Nazgul Musaeva, Kanat Tilekeyev, Gulnura Kojobergenova, Alexi Slushinskii, Saule Kasymbaeva, Ana Ocampo, Jessica Owen, Kadenova S a u d i A r a b i a I n d i a Zuurakan Azhimatova, Sirdbybayev Suyunbek, Kemelova Assel, Kuykeev O m a n V i e t N a m Eric Asanovich, Dikambayev Azamat, Jumaliev Jigitaly, Zamira Komilova, M y a n m a r Dragan Aleksoski, Parvina Tajibaeva, Shodibeg Kodyrov, Kakhramon Bakozada, Nazokat Odinzoda, Yusuf Kurbonkhojaev, Kulov Abdevali, Vania L a o Tomeva, Emma Khachatryan, Farida Muminova, Daring RahmanP A JahanC I F I C O C E A N Afruz, Davlatov Umed Abdulalievich, Rajab Radjabov, Mahmadbekov Moyonsh, Khimatsho Muzafarov, Jamshed Karimov, Zoirjon Shapirov, Theo Y e m e n Kurbanov, Hadija Boimatova, Malika Makhkambaeva, Ibrohim Ahmadov, T h a i l a n d Alisher Rajabov and Alexi Sluchynskyy.
C a m b o d i a
S o m a l i a Sri Lanka
Malaysia
I n d o n e s i a
3
Esri, DeLorme, GEBCO, NOAA NGDC, and other contributors Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report Executive Summary
Members of the Commonwealth of tool to improve human welfare and well- Policy Recommendations Independent States (CIS) have found being. This is reflected in the comprehensive their way to economic growth and social protection systems in place. Armenia, • Comprehensive safety nets are improved livelihoods after a long period the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan all have required to break the cycle of hunger of transition to market economies. social insurance systems and at least one kind and poverty and achieve the SDGs Instability and conflict within and around the of social assistance programme targeted at and Agenda 2030. Regarding existing region, vulnerability to developments in the poor and vulnerable groups. School feeding programmes, especially social assistance in global economy and an increasing frequency programmes have become integral parts of the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, the most of natural disasters are obstacles on the path to national social protection strategies and yield pressing challenge is to increase coverage inclusive growth. The three countries, Armenia, positive returns in poverty reduction, nutrition and transfer adequacy. International partners Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic, which are and human capital accumulation. Remittances can assist with building the case for scaling the focus of a new regional synthesis report from migrant family members provide an up or discontinuing certain programmes, on nutrition-sensitive social protection and important informal safety net. for instance by conducting ex-ante policy safety nets commissioned by the World Food analyses. Moreover, United Nations agencies Programme (WFP), are at different development The performance of social protection and international donors have global stages. Armenia performs better in terms of programmes is mixed. Social insurance, expertise and a pool of evidence that can GDP and real wages, thanks to comprehensive in particular old-age pensions, contributes underpin strategic and technical decisions. economic reforms implemented in the decade substantially to poverty reduction in all three after independence. Kyrgyzstan, and even more countries. Social assistance, on the other hand, • Further improvement to the design so Tajikistan, are the poorest countries in the is characterized by low coverage and adequacy, of existing policies is possible region, but are also progressing in terms of particularly in Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz and advisable, for instance with the economic growth. Republic. Although all governments direct incorporation of appropriate graduation considerable shares of their budgets towards objectives as a mid-term goal. Programmes By 2015, all countries in the Europe social protection, social assistance programmes with graduation objectives, such as and Central Asia region had achieved are relatively underfunded. Despite social productive safety net programmes, need to be Millennium Development Goal (MDG) protection systems being fairly comprehensive, carefully designed based on international best 1c, with the exception of Tajikistan. gaps in shock-responsive safety nets, promotive practice. Governments should be assisted Yet, food insecurity and malnutrition remain measures or programmes that take into account to develop normative frameworks based on pertinent issues in Armenia, Kyrgyzstan the specific needs of vulnerable populations, agreed-upon standards for promotive social and Tajikistan, whereas the prevalence of remain. Nutrition objectives are strongly protection programmes. undernourishment is particularly alarming embedded in programmes such as school in Tajikistan. The populations of all three feeding run with WFP’s assistance, but not yet in • Governments will be required to countries are affected by the double burden government-run safety nets. make considerable financial efforts of malnutrition: undernutrition (including to address gaps in social protection. micronutrient deficiencies) and overnutrition. Although challenges undoubtedly The financing of social protection is a key The underlying reasons are poverty, lack exist, there are also a number of obstacle in scaling up programmes and of nutritional awareness and food import notable projects and good practices addressing gaps. Fiscal space may be dependency. Poverty affects approximately one that can serve as examples to follow sustainably created by reallocating spending third of the population in all three countries and across the region and beyond. The from other government sectors, increasing contributes to malnutrition primarily through Optimizing School Meals Programme in the tax revenues or expanding social insurance undermining households’ economic access to Kyrgyz Republic, the comprehensive reform coverage and contributions. International food. Certain population groups, such as rural of targeted social assistance in Tajikistan and partners can also assist in this process. If populations and women and girls have a higher the integration of social protection services in the minimum standards for social protection risk of being poor and food insecure. Armenia are examples of sound policy design, are set and agreed upon, the International implementation and excellent cooperation Labour Organisation (ILO), the International Social protection is recognized by the among both domestic and international Monetary Fund, the Asian Development Bank respective governments as an effective stakeholders. or the World Bank can assist governments in
4 costing schemes and finding fiscal space. and pension schemes have particularly strong • International development partners, poverty reduction effects. School feeding offers particularly the World Food Programme, • Adoption of electronic registries a combination of protective and promotive the Food and Agriculture Organisation of and M&E systems contributing functions and contributes to food and nutrition the United Nations, and the United Nations to programme efficiency and security of children and their families. Inclusion Children’s Fund, can play a major role in effectiveness can be used to improve and exclusion errors, gaps in shock-responsive addressing these issues and supporting the the design and implementation and promotive elements, and challenges related government. of social protection programmes. to governance and policy implementation, For instance, the absence of longitudinal among others, can be addressed through on- Kyrgyz Republic: (panel) data is a significant gap in all three going policy dialogue around the following countries and the region in general, and use elements: Social protection is relatively comprehensive in of electronic registries can help provide the the Kyrgyz Republic, but social assistance and administrative data needed to evaluate social • Using a set of minimum standards active labour market programmes are small. protection programmes. The new electronic to guide policy dialogue, such as Since 2010, the Government of the Kyrgyz registries and M&E systems also provide those proposed in International Labour Republic and its partners have demonstrated an opportunity to adopt a nutrition-sensitive Organisation’s Social Protection Floor dedication to improve the well-being of approach to social protection. recommendations. the population and have made important achievements in social protection policy. The • A common understanding of minimum • Supporting nutrition-sensitive social last two decades have brought about several standards must underpin the protection by investing in the capacity reforms, and there have been ongoing efforts to establishment of social protection of social case managers to detect child expand and consolidate social protection. Yet, systems that are respectful of human malnutrition; introducing referral mechanisms social protection in its current form does not rights and address the specific between social and health services as well fully address the needs and vulnerabilities of vulnerabilities of populations in the as strengthening communication about the Kyrgyz population. A comprehensive reform region. Policy dialogue should be fostered nutrition. aimed at strengthening social protection and around the development of a set of minimum its impact on food security should include the standards for social protection, food security • Strengthening governance and following elements: and nutrition. Minimum standards for cooperation among line ministries, to social protection should refer to ILO’s Social create synergies particularly in rural areas and • Strengthening the design of social Protection Floor Recommendation (R202) contribute to the development of active labour protection programmes by reviewing covering basic livelihood needs throughout market policies, public work programmes standards that guide access, eligibility and the lifecycle. Policy dialogue should also and productive safety net programmes. benefit values and targeting approaches. address the need for shock-responsive social Ensure that the protective, preventive, protection in the region. Establishing or – Tajikistan: promotive and transformative potential of where applicable – strengthening emergency social protection are de facto realized. Allow preparedness capacities should also be a Tajikistan has a relatively comprehensive social the poor, not only the officially unemployed, priority. protection system, which includes elements to access active labour market policies. of social insurance, social assistance and The rationale behind social protection social services. Existing social protection • Strengthening the implementation for all is multifaceted, but first and programmes have limited impact on food of social protection programmes through foremost, decent living standards and security due to the low coverage and adequacy capacity-building, introducing a nationwide the right to a healthy, adequate diet are of the social assistance system, currently electronic registry and carrying out robust basic human rights. Social protection is a under reform. Addressing existing institutional monitoring and evaluation practices, could key pathway to securing these rights. If SDG and implementation challenges will require contribute to a more efficient and effective 2 on Zero Hunger is to be achieved by 2030, consideration of the following elements: system. governments, the international development community and civil society have to work • Improving policy design and • Reviewing the efficiency of resource together to further develop social protection implementation, including on coverage allocation within social protection. An systems in the CIS countries. and adequacy of transfers, promotive social increased financial commitment to social protection measures, shock-responsive safety protection also is necessary to overcome Highlights from country specific reviews nets and nutrition-sensitive social protection, gaps and bottlenecks. creating a monitoring and evaluation Armenia: framework to guide evidence-based policy making, and ensuring sound public Armenia has a well-developed social protection financial management of social protection system, even if certain components are modest programmes. in size. Remittances from migrant workers play an important role as an informal safety net,
5 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report Executive Summary
Members of the Commonwealth Poverty affects approximately one third of the specific needs of vulnerable populations. of Independent States have found the population in all three countries and Nutrition objectives are strongly embedded in their ways to economic growth contributes to malnutrition primarily through programmes run with World Food Programme’s and improving livelihoods after a undermining households’ economic access assistance, but not yet in government-run long period of transition to market to food. Certain population groups, such as safety nets. School feeding programmes are an economies. Instability and conflict within rural populations and women and girls have a excellent platform to deliver nutrition-sensitive and around the region, vulnerability to higher risk to be poor and food insecure. social protection to children and families, and developments in the global economy and an can contribute to the achievement of Sustainable increasing frequency of natural disasters are Social protection is recognized Development Goals 2, 3 and 4 on Zero Hunger, obstacles on the path to inclusive growth. by the respective governments as ensuring healthy lives and inclusive and quality The three countries, Armenia, Tajikistan an effective tool to improve the education. and the Kyrgyz Republic, which are the populations’ well-being. This is reflected focus of a new regional synthesis report in the comprehensive social protection Although challenges undoubtedly on nutrition-sensitive social protection and systems that are in place. Armenia, the exist, there are also a umber of safety nets commissioned by the World Food Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan all have social remarkable projects and good Programme, are at different development insurance systems and at least one kind practices that can serve as examples stages. Armenia performs better in terms of social assistance programme targeted to follow across the region and of Gross Domestic Product and real at poor and vulnerable groups. School beyond. The Optimizing School Meals wages, thanks to comprehensive economic feeding programmes have become inherent Programme in the Kyrgyz Republic, the reforms implemented in the decade after elements of the national social protection comprehensive reform of Targeted Social independence. Kyrgyzstan, and even more strategies and yield positive returns in Assistance in Tajikistan and the integration so Tajikistan, are the poorest countries in the poverty reduction, nutrition and human of social protection services in Armenia region, but they are also progressing in terms capital accumulation. Remittances from are examples of sound policy design, of economic growth. migrant family members provide an important implementation and excellent cooperation informal safety net. among both domestic and international With the exception of Tajikistan, stakeholders. all countries in the Europe and The performance of social protection Central Asia region had achieved programmes is mixed. Social insurance, To break the vicious cycle of hunger the Millennium Development Goal in particular old-age pensions, contributes and poverty and to achieve the 1c by 2015. Yet, food insecurity and substantially to poverty reduction in all three Sustainable Development Goals and malnutrition remain pertinent issues in countries. Social assistance, on the other Agenda 2030, comprehensive safety Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, whereas hand, is characterized by low coverage and nets are required. In addition to the the prevalence of undernourishment is adequacy, particularly in Tajikistan and the gaps in the social protection systems and particularly alarming in Tajikistan. The Kyrgyz Republic. Although all governments the low coverage and adequacy of available populations of all three countries are affected direct considerable shares of their budgets cash transfers, monitoring and evaluation by the double burden of malnutrition: towards social protection, social assistance systems are underdeveloped, and emerging undernutrition (including micronutrient programmes are relatively underfunded. issues such as obesity, urbanization and deficiencies) and overnutrition. The Despite social protection systems being fairly return migration are further challenges. These underlying reasons are poverty, lack of comprehensive, gaps remain, such as the lack challenges interact, and are best addressed nutritional awareness and the countries’ of shock-responsive safety nets, promotive through a comprehensive reform of social partial dependence on food imports. measures or programmes that take into account protection, achieved with the engagement of
6 WFP/AnneMarie van den Berg
both government and development partners. social protection is a key obstacle in scaling region, has to be underpinned by a Sustainable Development Goal 17 – to up programmes and filling gaps. Fiscal space common understanding of minimum Strengthen the means of implementation may be sustainably created by reallocating standards. Therefore, fostering policy and revitalize the global partnership for spending from other government sectors, dialogue should start by developing a set of sustainable development – is a prerequisite increasing tax revenues or expanding social social protection, food security and nutrition for success. Through partnership, these insurance coverage and contributions. minimum standards. Minimum standards for challenges can be better tackled. International partners can also assist in social protection should refer to International this process. If the minimum standards for Labour Organisation’s Social Protection Floor Perhaps the most pressing challenge social protection are set and agreed upon, Recommendation (R202), since it covers is to increase coverage of the poor and the International Labour Organisation, the the basic livelihood needs throughout the transfer adequacy. Governments have International Monetary Fund, the Asian lifecycle and is already embedded in the to find fiscal space to do so. International Development Bank or the World Bank can international and national policy arena. Policy partners can assist with building the case assist the governments in costing schemes dialogue should also address the need for for scaling up programmes, for instance and finding fiscal space. shock-responsive social protection in the by conducting ex-ante analyses. Moreover, region. Establishing or – where applicable United Nations agencies and international Development partners, including – strengthening emergency preparedness donors have global expertise and a pool of World Food Programme, should councils should as well be priority. evidence that can underpin strategic and continue providing technical technical decisions. Further improvement to assistance for the development of The rationale behind social protection existing policies is possible and advisable. effective Monetary and Evaluation for all is multifaceted, but first and For instance, the incorporation of appropriate systems and building the capacity of foremost, decent living standards graduation mechanisms should be a mid- civil servants in using the systems. and the right to consume a healthy, term goal. In that context productive safety The new electronic registries and Monetary adequate diet are basic human rights. nets play an important role. and Evaluation systems also provide an Social protection is a key component opportunity to entrench a nutrition-sensitive in securing these rights. If Sustainable Addressing the gaps in social approach to social protection. Development Goal 2 on Zero Hunger is protection will require considerable to be achieved by 2030, governments, financial efforts from governments. The work on establishing social the international development community Governments struggle to finance their regular protection systems that meet both the and civil society have to work together to social protection programmes, and have requirements dictated by human rights further develop social protection systems in limited capacity to set aside funds for scaling and needs, and address the specific the Commonwealth of Independent States up during emergencies. The financing of vulnerabilities of populations in the countries.Executive Summary 4
7 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report Table of contents
Executive Summary ...... 4 Tables...... 8 Figures...... 8 Abbreviations...... 9
1. Introduction ...... 11 1.1 Food security and social protection...... 12 1.2 Key social protection instruments for food security...... 12 1.3 The gender dimension of social protection and food security...... 13
2. Regional context...... 15 2.1 Demographic context...... 15 2.2 Economic context...... 16
3. Food security and poverty...... 21 3.1 Food security and nutrition...... 21 3.2 Poverty ...... 24
4. Social protection...... 27 4.1 Overview...... 27 4.1.1 Social assistance programmes...... 28 4.1.2 Social insurance programmes...... 29 4.1.3 Social services...... 30 4.1.4 School feeding programmes...... 30 4.1.5 Active labour market policies and productive safety nets...... 32 4.1.6 Informal safety nets: remittances...... 32
8 4.2 Social protection performance...... 33 4.2.1 Coverage, distribution, and adequacy...... 33 4.2.2 Contribution to food security...... 34 4.3 Financing of social protection...... 36 4.4 Institutional arrangements...... 37 4.4.1 Governmental institutions...... 37 4.4.2 International organizations and development partners...... 37 4.5 Social protection gaps and neglected issues...... 38 4.5.1 Social protection floors...... 38 4.5.2 The four functions of social protection...... 38 4.5.3 Shock-responsive social protection...... 39 4.5.4 Considerations for vulnerable groups of the population...... 40 4.5.5 Nutrition-sensitive social protection...... 40
5. Achievements and challenges...... 43 5.1 Achievements and best practices...... 43 5.1.1 Optimizing School Meals in the Kyrgyz Republic...... 43 5.1.2 Reforming social assistance in Tajikistan...... 44 5.1.3 Integrated social protection services in Armenia...... 44 5.2 Challenges...... 45 5.2.1 Low coverage and adequacy of social assistance...... 45 5.2.2 Administration, monitoring, and evaluation systems...... 45 5.2.3 Gaps in social protection provision...... 45 5.2.4 Financing challenges...... 45 5.3 The way forward – policy recommendations...... 46 5.3.1 Strengthening the design and implementation social protection programmes...... 47 5.3.2 Financing social protection...... 48 5.3.3 Fostering policy dialogue...... 48
References...... 50 Annex 1: Dimensions of food security...... 52 Annex 2: Tables...... 53
9 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report
Tables Table 1. Line ministries and specialized bodies of social protection provision...... 37 Table 2. Urban population (% of total)...... 53 Table 3. Official unemployment rates and labour force participation, total and by sex...... 53 Table 4. Real wages at constant prices of USD 2005...... 53
Figures Figure 1. Components of social protection and examples of nutrition-related interventions...... 13 Figure 2. Real GDP per capita trends and estimates among comparators...... 16 Figure 3. GDP growth rates (constant prices) in Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Russia...... 17 Figure 4. Added value as % of GDP (left), employment as % of employed (right), by sector...... 17 Figure 5. Prevalence of undernourishment in Central Asian countries...... 22 Figure 6. Percentage of children under 5 affected by stunting, wasting, and underweight...... 22 Figure 7. Prevalence of obesity among males and females...... 23 Figure 8. Poverty rates at national poverty lines...... 24 Figure 9. Poverty rates by area of residence, 2015...... 25 Figure 10. Main components of social protection systems in the region...... 28 Figure 11. Remittances received as % of GDP...... 32 Figure 12. Percentage of total population (left) and poorest pre-transfer quintile (right) covered by any social assistance...... 34 Figure 13. Poverty reduction (%) - All social assistance -poorest quintile...... 35 Figure 14. Poverty Gap reduction (%) - All social insurance -poorest quintile...... 35 Figure 15. Social protection spending as % of government budgets...... 36 Figure 16. Social protection spending as % of GDP...... 37 Figure 17. Challenges and recommendations...... 46 Figure 18. Inflation trends and forecasts (2000–2021) in Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan...... 53
10 Abbreviations
ADB Asian Development Bank IOM International Organization for PAYG Pay-As-You-Go Migration ARM Armenia PMT Proxy means test KAZ Kazakhstan ASPIRE The Atlas of Social Protection: PSNP Productive Safety Net Indicators of Resilience and KGZ Kyrgyz Republic Programme Equity KIHS Kyrgyz Integrated Household RUS Russian Federation ASSIP Agency for State Social Survey Insurance Pensions SABER-SF Systems Approach for Better KNOMAD Global Knowledge Partnership Education Results – School AZE Azerbaijan on Migration and Feeding Development CIS Commonwealth of Independent States M&E Monitoring and Evaluation SPF Social Protection Floor DPCC Development Partner MBPF Monthly Benefit for Poor TajStat Statistical Agency Under the Coordination Council Families with children President of the Republic of Tajikistan DHS Demographic and MDG Millennium Development Health Survey Goals TJK Tajikistan ECU Eurasian Customs Union MLSD Ministry of Labour and Social TSA Targeted Social Assistance Development EDB Eurasian Development Bank TSP Transformative Social MNG Mongolia EDRC Economic Development and Protection Research Center MOH Ministry of Health TUR Turkmenistan FAO Food and Agriculture MPI Multidimensional Poverty UKR Ukraine Organization of the United Index Nations UN United Nations MSB Monthly Social Benefit FLSEB Family Living Standard NDC Notional Defined Contribution UNDP United Nations Development Enhancement Benefit Programme NSC National Statistical Center GDP Gross Domestic Product UNICEF United Nations Children’s NSSRA National Statistical Service of GMI Guaranteed Minimum Income Fund the Republic of Armenia ICN2 Second International USAID United States Agency for OECD Organization for Economic Conference on Nutrition International Development Co-operation and IFPRI International Food Policy Development USD United States Dollar Research Institute OPHI Oxford Poverty and Human WASH Water Sanitation and Hygiene ILO International Labour Development Initiative Organization WB World Bank OSMP Optimizing School Meals IMF International Monetary Fund Programme WHO World Health Organization
11 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report WFP/Mtatev
12 1. Introduction
Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are transition MESSAGES: economies on the path of growth and recovery. Europe and Central Social protection is a human right and an effective Asia as a region has achieved the Millennium Development Goals instrument to alleviate poverty and accelerate (MDG) 1c to halve the rate of economic development. SDG1, “End poverty in all undernourishment (Food and its forms everywhere”, includes explicit targets for Agriculture Organization of the social protection provision. UN, FAO, 2015b), and managed to reduce poverty significantly. Progress, however, took place Food insecurity violates the basic human right to at different rates. In Armenia, food and hinders economic growth. SDG2 aims to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, achieve “Zero Hunger” by 2030. Conditions arising approximately one third of the from food insecurity and hunger are undernutrition, population still lives below the national poverty line (World Bank, overnutrition, and micronutrient deficiencies. WB, 2017). Food insecurity and These conditions have serious impacts on people’s malnutrition are pertaining issues. abilities, development, and quality of life on the The three countries studied in this micro level, and the population’s productivity on the report have fairly comprehensive social protection systems, but low macro level. coverage and adequacy. The lack of shock-responsive safety nets, Poverty and hunger are interconnected. The link and underdeveloped promotive between them increasingly has been recognized in measures hinder the fight against recent years, and the potential of social protection poverty and hunger. to enhance food security and nutrition has become apparent. Different social protection instruments can tackle different aspects of food insecurity. The objective of this report is to provide an overview of social Nutrition objectives can be incorporated into social protection and safety nets in Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, with a protection to enhance nutrition outcomes. particular focus on food and nutrition security objectives and outcomes and to offer policy Gender inequality interacts with food insecurity on directions to strengthen the social protection many levels, some of which can be tackled through systems to contribute to achieving food social protection instruments. security and nutrition outcomes in Central Asia in line with the Agenda 2030 and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs),
13 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report
in particular goals 1, 2 and 17. The present Food security is defined along and alleviate poverty. Promotive measures report is based on three separate country four dimensions and exisits when seek to decrease vulnerability by promoting studies. people have physical and economic and stabilizing income and develop human access to sufficent food that is and physical capital. This report is structured as follows: safe and nutritious and meets their The remainder of this introductory chapter dietary needs and preferences Transformative social protection (TSP) introduces the concepts and interlinkages of (World Food Summit, Rome 1996). The measures go beyond consumption social protection and food security. Chapter four dimensions include the physical smoothing and redistribution policies. They 2 provides the demographic and socio- availability of food, economic and physical also aim to address poverty and inequality economic context of the region related to access to food, utilization of food, and through issues of social equity, exclusion, food security and social protection. Chapter 3 the stability of these three dimensions and marginalization. focuses on the prevalence of food insecurity, over time.5 All four dimensions should be malnutrition, and poverty in the three assured simultaneously. Securing access countries. Chapter 4 provides an overview to and quality of food, and raising the 1.2 KEY SOCIAL PROTECTION of current social protection systems in the knowledge about nutrition and awareness of INSTRUMENTS FOR FOOD SECURITY three countries, and Chapter 5 discusses the consequences of harmful habits are important performance of the existing social protection policy challenges. Poverty reduction policies, With respect to the four dimensions of measures, summarizes the financial and particularly social protection as an instrument food security, social protection has the institutional characteristics, and identifies to reduce poverty and help smooth greatest potential to improve access current gaps in the systems. Chapter 6 draws consumption, gain special attention. to food. Protective and preventive social upon the findings in the previous chapters protection instruments raise households’ and summarizes lessons, best practices, and In the last decades, social protection economic access to food by directly policy recommendations for policy makers has been progressively recognized increasing or maintaining their purchasing and international development partners. as a human right and an effective power. instrument to alleviate poverty and accelerate economic development. Promotive programmes raise purchasing 1.1 FOOD SECURITY AND SOCIAL Although the Millennium Development Goals power directly, by creating real infrastructure PROTECTION did not emphasize social protection, it is and assets that support real livelihood very present in the post-2015 development generation in the long term. TSP measures Food insecurity is a condition violating agenda with SDG1 “End poverty in all its can address lags in social access and the basic human right to food1, and forms everywhere” containing explicit targets utilization, by changing patterns of it undermines people’s quality of life of social protection provision (UN, 2015).6 discrimination, prevailing adverse gender and their ability to live a life they Social protection is considered to be one of norms and behavioural factors related to value. Nutritious food is the most basic the most effective tools to alleviate poverty nutrition. element of human life. The consequences and inequality, to tackle social exclusion of food insecurity are extremely harmful: and to promote lasting, pro-poor economic Social insurance and labour market the inability to regularly consume quality growth. programmes, social safety nets and food increases the risk of mortality and social services all have the potential morbidity (Blössner and de Onis, 2005). Social protection policies reflect to contribute to food security and Food insecurity can lead to malnutrition2 and “a broad set of arrangements and strengthen nutrition outcomes (Figure undernutrition3 with detrimental long-term instruments designed to protect 1). Social safety nets include cash and in-kind consequences. members of society from shocks and (in many cases, food) transfers on a non- stresses over the lifecycle” (WFP, contributory basis, protecting the population Undernourished children often suffer 2014). Social protection can serve four basic from falling into poverty and ensuring their from stunting, wasting, or underweight. functions (Devereux and Sabates-Wheeler, access to nutritious food. Several types of Undernutrition over time can cause starvation 2004). Protective social protection provides social services can yield positive returns on and premature death (FAO, IFAD, and WFP, relief from deprivation and chronic poverty. food security by ensuring, for example, access 2015).4 Preventive measures aim to avert deprivation to healthcare and education.
1 Entrenched in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the Declaration of the Rights of the Child, the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, General Comments 12 and 19 of the UN Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights. 2 Malnutrition is an abnormal physical condition that arises when dietary needs are not met and the amount of energy, macro- and micronutrients consumed is not adequate for a healthy and active life. 3 Undernutrition is the condition resulting from too little food intake relative to the person’s nutritional requirements, primarily in calories and protein. 4 Micronutrient deficiency, “sometimes also called as hidden hunger, refers to an inadequate intake of essential vitamins and minerals” (FAO, 2015a) and is associated with under- and overnutrition. Overnutrition arises when an individual’s food energy intake is above their dietary needs. 5 For more detail, see Annex 1. 6 Besides SDG1, SDG3, SDG5, and SDG8 also explicitly refer to social protection as means to achieve the targets (United Nations, 2015).
14 FIGURE 1. COMPONENTS OF SOCIAL PROTECTION AND EXAMPLES OF NUTRITION-RELATED INTERVENTIONS
Outside social protection e.g. cash/food for work programmes e.g. microcredit
Social insurance and labour market policy Contributory schemes (pension, work, incidence protection, etc.) labour market policy
Social safety nets (or social assistance) e.g. crop or health Non-contributory transfers insurance Social services in cash or kind Access to social services for education, health, nutrition, agriculture
e.g. food, vouchers, cash transfers for food assistance e.g. school feeding Outside social protection e.g. teacher training
Source: based on WB (2015) and WFP (2014)
Improved food security outcomes are community relations are vital to survival perspective, there are strong economic more than a mere positive externality strategies in everyday life and adaptation to reasons for tackling gender inequality. of social protection measures. With social change” (Dershem and Gzirishvili, Women play an essential role in food nutrition-specific and nutrition-sensitive 1998). Remittances have been found to security and nutrition: rural women make social protection programmes, these have positive impacts on households’ food up the majority of food producers globally. effects can be further enhanced (United security (see, for example, Babatunde and Nevertheless, they are discriminated in Nations Children’s Fund, UNICEF, 2013). Martinetti, 2011). ways that affect their ability to participate in Nutrition-specific programmes, such decision making, to produce, and to achieve as supplementary feeding or nutrition equality. The lack of women’s empowerment education, seek to tackle the immediate 1.3 THE GENDER DIMENSION OF has adverse effects on the productivity of and underlying causes of malnutrition. SOCIAL PROTECTION AND FOOD the agricultural sector and thus hinders Nutrition-sensitive social protection SECURITY economic growth (ADB, 2013; Bread for programmes incorporate nutrition targets the World Institute, 2015; FAO, 2016; FAO, and address underlying and basic causes, Gender inequality interacts with food IFPRI & DFID, 2015). such as social assistance cash transfers, security on many levels, some of which enable households to purchase safe which can be effectively addressed Social protection is never gender and nutritious food. by social protection. Women and neutral. Hence, it can and should girls are overrepresented among the aim at counteracting inequalities. Not Besides government-run social food-insecure population of the world, incorporating gender objectives in social protection programmes, informal accounting for an estimated 60 percent protection does not mean programmes are safety nets can contribute to the food of all undernourished people (ECOSOC, gender neutral: being gender blind, they security of households. Dershem and 2007). Fighting gender inequality and might unintentionally reinforce existing Gzirishvili found that informal safety nets are expanding the opportunities of women and inequalities. Transformative objectives expected to gain more significance during girls is entrenched in various international can be operationalized in stand-alone times of crises: “During times of crisis agreements7 and is the duty of governments programmes, or use other social protection and socio-economic change, kinship and all over the world. Besides the human rights programmes as a delivery platform.
7 See, for instance, the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (1979), the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action (1995) and the Paris Agreement (2016).
15 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report WFP/Maxim Shubovich
16 2. REGIONAL context
Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are all members of the Commonwealth MESSAGES: of Independent States (CIS) – a confederation of nine member and two associated member states, all of them Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are recovering former Soviet Republics. With no access from a painful transition from the Soviet past. Growth to the sea, high mountains, underdeveloped picked up in the early 2000s, but the global economic infrastructure, and strict borders of neighbouring economies, the countries of crisis in 2008, and the Russian crisis starting in Central Asia face considerable geographic 2014, have had adverse effects on CIS economies. and geopolitical challenges. The region is further hit by political instability, ethnic conflicts, and security risks in neighbouring The three countries are at different stages on the countries. same path of transition. Armenia performs better All three countries are prone to natural in terms of GDP and real wages because of the disasters, which are becoming more comprehensive economic reforms in the decade after frequent and have larger adverse independence. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are the effects. For instance, in the Kyrgyz Republic, there have been six times as many poorest countries in the region, but they are making natural disasters recorded in 2014 than in progress in economic growth. 2001. Climate change and related natural disasters pose a further risk to people`s livelihoods and food security. Much of the labour force seeks employment abroad, mainly in the Russian Federation and in 2.1 DEMOGRAPHIC CONTEXT Kazakhstan, where wages are higher. Remittances play an important role in these economies and in In terms of population, all three households’ livelihoods. countries are relatively small. Armenia registered a population of 3 million at the beginning of 2017. Kyrgyzstan`s and The countries share common challenges, such Tajikistan`s populations are approximately twice and three times as large, with 6 and 9 as their vulnerability to environmental disasters million inhabitants (International Monetary and external economic shocks, especially in the Fund, IMF, 2016b), respectively. Although form of spill overs from the Russian Federation. Armenia is nearly ethnically homogenous, the dominant ethnic groups account for Unemployment and the large size of the informal 72 percent of the population in the Kyrgyz labour market are shared difficulties. Republic, and 85 percent in Tajikistan (Batsaikhan and Dabrowski, 2017) The
17 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report
latter two countries have seen violent ethnic population is aged 65 and above (WB, in Armenia reached negative numbers and conflicts in the not so distant past, such as 2017). The Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan slowed in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. As a the civil war in Tajikistan in the years after register lower shares of elderly among the consequence, poverty rates also have risen. independence, and the clashes in Kyrgyzstan total population with 4 percent and 3 percent, in 2010. respectively (WB, 2017). The share of From 2014, Russia has been hit by falling children (0–14) in 2016 stood at 19 percent oil prices and a series of Western trade Urbanization has occurred to a in Armenia, 32 percent in Kyrgyzstan and 35 sanctions. Through the strong economic different extent in the countries. In percent in Tajikistan (WB, 2017). ties, the Russian crisis has had major Armenia, almost two thirds of the population negative impacts on the Commonwealth of live in urban areas, whereas this rate is one Independent States. Russia is an important third in Kyrgyzstan and a little over a quarter 2.1 ECONOMIC CONTEXT export destination and source of imports in Tajikistan. The absolute urban population for Eastern European and Central Asian has been growing in all three countries, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan countries. Most CIS countries cover at ranging from an annual growth rate of 0.1 face similar economic challenges least 5 percent of their energy imports from percent in Armenia, to 2.6 percent in in because of their shared past and the Russia, Armenia even reaching 20 percent Tajikistan. In Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the economic transition they underwent. (Stepanyan, Roitman, Minasyan, Ostojic, and growth of the urban population is rather They are among the poorer countries of the Epstein, 2015). fast paced but still slower than the overall CIS, if measured by Gross Domestic Product population growth (WB, 2017). (GDP) per capita. Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz The Russian crisis led to losses of an Republic recently crossed the threshold important export market and to an increase in Demographic shifts can be observed to qualify as lower middle-income, but import prices in the region. in all three countries, albeit to varying Tajikistan remains the poorest country in extents. Fertility rates increased between Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Armenia An important step in international trade 2006 and 2015 in the Kyrgyz Republic and has registered steep growth from the early for Armenia and the Kyrgyz Republic was slightly decreased in Armenia and Tajikistan. 2000s, at a much faster pace than the other gaining membership in the Eurasian Customs The share of the elderly population is two countries. Union (ECU). As shown in Figure 3, all three expected to grow in all three countries as countries are expected to recover from the a result of fertility rates slowing and life The 2008 global economic crisis recent crisis if no unexpected shocks occur, expectancy growing.8 This is especially had serious adverse effects on all and GDP growth close to the rate in 2013 is true in Armenia, where 11 percent of the countries in the region. GDP growth forecast (IMF, 2016b). After a period of high
FIGURE 2. REAL GDP PER CAPITA TRENDS AND ESTIMATES AMONG COMPARATORS 35,000
Russia 30,000
25,000 l ar )
o l Armenia D 20,000 P P P (
a
i t 15,000 p a
c Kyrgyz r e
p 10,000 Republic P D G 5,000 Tajikistan
0
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database (2016b). Figures for 2016 and beyond based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) Staff projections
8 Average life expectancy at birth in 2015 was highest in Armenia at 75 years, followed by Kyrgyzstan with 71 years, and lowest in Tajikistan with 70 years. Life expectancy for women is higher in all countries than it is for men.
18 and volatile inflation, inflation rates have drained financial assets and markets and recommend the structural stabilized at one-digit figures since 2012 growing public debt, there is little diversification of the economies in order (IMF, 2016b). The IMF (2016b) forecasts that available policy space to address to lessen the reliance on commodities and future consumer price increases will average these issues (IMF, 2016a). International remittances (IMF, 2016a). The IMF also between 4–6 percent in the following years. organizations, such as the IMF and the notes that “growth will also need to be Asian Development Bank (ADB), warn made more inclusive, to allow the broader The economies remain vulnerable about the vulnerability of CIS countries population enjoy the benefits of higher to external shocks, and with to changes in the world commodity living standards” (IMF, 2016a).
FIGURE 3. GDP GROWTH RATES (CONSTANT PRICES) IN ARMENIA, KYRGYZSTAN, TAJIKISTAN AND RUSSIA
20%
15% Tajikistan 10%
Kyrgyz 5% Republic ge
n Armenia
a 0% h c
% Russia -5%
-10%
-15% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source: IMF 2016b World Economic Outlook Database. Figures for 2016 and beyond based on IMF Staff projections
FIGURE 4. ADDED VALUE AS % OF GDP (LEFT), EMPLOYMENT AS % OF EMPLOYED (RIGHT), BY SECTOR
100% 100% 5% 7% 16% 19% 25% 35% 29% 53% 63% 66% 52% 56% 50% 47% 50% 50% 49% 31%
29% 28% 28% 33% 27% 16% 21% 16% 0% 0% ARM KGZ TJK RUS ARM KGZ TJK RUS
Industry Services etc. Agriculture Industry Services etc. Agriculture
Source: WB (2017) World Development Indicators. Note: data refers to the year 2015. For % of employment in Tajikistan, data refers to 2009.
19 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report
Agriculture accounts for a relatively The labour markets are characterized In summary, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, high share of total employment in by a lack of productive employment and Tajikistan are at different all three countries but seems to opportunities, low wages, and stages on the same path of underperform when it comes to the a medium to high degree of transition. Armenia performs better in value added as a percentage of GDP. informality. terms of GDP and real wages, in which Tajikistan is a rather extreme example in the comprehensive economic reforms in this context, as agriculture employs more Official unemployment rates are the highest the decade after independence played a than half (53 percent) of the labour force in Armenia (18.5 percent)(NSSRA, 2016), crucial part. but accounts for only one quarter of the the lowest in Tajikistan (2.4 percent) gross national product (WB, 2017). (TajStat, 2017)9, with Kyrgyzstan (7.6 Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are the percent) (IMF, 2016b) in the middle. Labour poorest countries in the region, but Since it is the main sector of force participation varies between 63–69 are progressing in terms of economic employment, especially in rural areas, the percent (WB, 2017). growth. Despite the differences, the underperformance of Tajik agriculture is countries share common challenges, such a serious constraint to inclusive growth. Significant gender disparities exist as their vulnerability to environmental Industry, in comparison, is productive: in unemployment and labour force disasters and external economic shocks, it has a substantially higher added value participation, with the largest differences unemployment, and the large size of the than its share of employment in all three noted for the Kyrgyz Republic. Besides informal labour market. countries (WB, 2017). Services are the the lack of productive employment largest sector in terms of employment and opportunities, low wages pose a further value added in Kyrgyzstan and Armenia. threat to inclusive growth and incentivize In comparison, the Russian economy is seeking employment abroad. largely dominated by the service sector, which accounts for two thirds of the Wages in the Russian Federation (RUS) and employed labour force (WB, 2017). Kazakhstan were four to five times higher than in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in 2014, Migration is a salient phenomenon and more than double than in Armenia in the entire region, including (ADB, 2016). As of 2014, Tajikistan had the the three focus countries, in lowest average real wage in the entire region, which emigration outnumbers followed by the Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova immigration. For all three countries, and Armenia. Russia is the most popular destination, with at least 90 percent of labour migrants The lowest wages are observed in the working there (IOM, 2016). It follows from agricultural sector, which is in line with the the high prevalence of labour migration findings of its low productivity. However, that remittances are a considerable Tajikistan also registered the highest annual component of GDP. average growth in wages between 2005 and 2014 (ADB, 2016). In 2016, these transfers accounted for an estimated 13.1 percent of GDP in Armenia, Informality is widespread, probably 34.5 percent of GDP in Kyrgyzstan, and even more so in the agricultural 26.9 percent in Tajikistan (KNOMAD, sector. In 2015 in Armenia, according to 2017). Most labour migrants are employed the NSSRA, the informal employment rate in the non-tradable sector, which is very stood at 47.7 percent in the overall economy volatile, sensitive to changes in oil prices, and 99 percent in the agricultural sector. and with flexible labour arrangements. Remittances are one of the main channels For the Kyrgyz Republic, the United Nations of transmission of the economic crisis to Development Programme (UNDP) estimated these countries (Stepanyan et al., 2015). that approximately 40–60 percent of GDP is generated in the informal sector (UNDP, In addition to a decrease in this large n.d.). component of GDP, the return of migrant workers increases unemployment, puts a In Tajikistan, the WB`s Listening to downward pressure on market wages, and Tajikistan survey found that 31 percent of translates to an increased need for social the labour force was employed informally assistance (Stepanyan et al., 2015). in 2009 (WB, 2015a).
9 Note that for Tajikistan only registered unemployment is reflected.
20 WFP/Tajikistan
21 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report WFP/Armenia
22 3. Food security and poverty
3.1 FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION
MESSAGES: As a region, Europe and Central Asia has achieved the MDG1C to halve the rate of undernourishment (FAO, The Europe and Central Asia region has achieved 2015b). Since the difficult years of the early MDG1 C on halving the population affected by transition period, all CIS countries have made remarkable progress in food security and hunger. Apart from Tajikistan, all countries have nutrition. With the exception of Tajikistan, achieved the target by 2015. all CIS countries reduced the proportion of undernourished people by half before the 2015 deadline (FAO, 2015b).
Despite the impressive achievements, Armenia, Undernutrition remains an issue in Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan still face considerable the region, with Tajikistan being the only country that has not yet reached challenges in food security and nutrition. Their dietary energy supply adequacy (FAO, populations are affected by the double burden of 2017). The disparity of Tajikistan in relation to the rest of the region is striking (Figure 5). malnutrition, meaning that undernutrition (including The country has decreased the prevalence micronutrient deficiencies) and overnutrition are of undernourishment from 38 percent to 33 percent but has by far the highest prevalent issues. proportion of the population affected when measured against other countries (FAO, 2017). According to FAO, the total number Food insecurity and malnutrition are highly of undernourished people in Europe and correlated with poverty, which affects approximately Central Asia was 5.9 million in 2014/16, of which almost 50 percent lived in Tajikistan one third of the population in all three countries (FAO, 2017). Although relative to population (measured at the national poverty lines). Tajikistan has decreased the prevalence of undernourishment, the absolute number of people affected has increased. Rural populations and women and girls are more The Kyrgyz Republic performs well affected by poverty. Unemployment and low relative to Armenia and Tajikistan in wages contribute to poverty and incentivize labour fighting child malnutrition. In 2014, Kyrgyzstan registered a 2.8 percent decrease migration. in wasting and underweight. Compared to 2009, these results indicate a 50 percent decrease in underweight, but a two-fold increase in wasting (FAO, 2017). Wasting,
23 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report
also referred to as ”acute malnutrition”, the biggest challenge (FAO, 2017). Again, Micronutrient deficiency remains a became twice as prevalent between 2009 and Tajikistan registers higher rates in all three problem in the Kyrgyz Republic and 2012 in Tajikistan, whereas underweight has undernutrition indicators compared to Armenia Tajikistan. According to FAO, in 2011, decreased. The increase in wasting could be and the Kyrgyz Republic. The Europe and 35.8 percent of Kyrgyz children under 5, and a result of the devastating economic crisis Central Asia region as a whole in 2010 had 29.9 percent of Kyrgyz pregnant mothers in 2008–2009, and the subsequent transient substantially lower rates of stunting, wasting, were affected by anaemia (FAO, 2017). In poverty and economic hardship in the region. and undernutrition than the global average of Tajikistan, 40 percent of children between In all three focus countries, stunting remains developing countries (FAO, 2015b). 6–59 months were affected by anaemia in
FIGURE 5. PREVALENCE OF UNDERNOURISHMENT IN CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5% % of Population Undernourished 0% 2008-2010 2009-2011 2010-2012 2011-2013 2012-2014 2013-2015 2014-2016 Armenia Georgia Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Tajikistan
Source: FAO Statistical Database. Note: Missin data for Uzbekistan from 2013 onwards.
FIGURE 6. PERCENTAGE OF CHILDREN UNDER 5 AFFECTED BY STUNTING, WASTING, AND UNDERWEIGHT
13% Tajikistan(2012) 27% 10% 5% Armenia(2010) 21% 4% 5% Azerbaijan(2013) 18% 3% 3% Kyrgyzstan(2014) 13% 3%
Kazakhstan(2010) 4% 13%
Georgia(2009) 1% 11%
Underweight Stunting Wasting
Source: FAO Statistical Database
24 2012 (TajStat, MoH, and ICF International, Republic (NSC et al., 2013; NSSRA et al., Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan 2013). Whereas in Armenia and Kyrgyzstan 2016; TajStat et al., 2013). are food-deficit countries, which has anaemia was more common in rural areas, implications for the dimensions of urban areas in Tajikistan registered a two As CIS countries have been moving food stability and access. Agriculture is percentage points higher prevalence than towards higher incomes, overweight characterized by low productivity and outputs rural areas. This type of micronutrient has been increasing, posing an are insufficient to meet the population food deficiency was not found to be correlated emerging challenge for all three needs. Hence, the countries are net food with wealth in any of the countries (NSC, countries. The levels of obesity among importers. Tajikistan, for example, imports MOH, and ICF International, 2013; NSSRA, children in the Caucasus and Central Asian 50 percent of its wheat, which accounts for MoH, and ICF International, 2016; TajStat et region are high relative to the countries’ 70 percent of the population’s overall calorie al., 2013). In Armenia, anaemia rates have income levels, which is an indicator of intake (WFP, 2016a). As a consequence of decreased since 2000, but the condition still a broader problem affecting post-Soviet large scale food imports, the populations affected 26 percent of children under 5 and Eurasian populations (FAO, 2015b). of all three countries are vulnerable to 12 percent of pregnant women in 2015–16 fluctuations in international food prices. (NSSRA et al., 2016). While Tajikistan still fights undernutrition, overnutrition has also started to climb Evidence from the Kyrgyz Republic suggests Behavioural factors and social norms, with 41.1 percent of the population being that net food buyer and net food importer such as infant feeding practices and overweight and 12.0 percent obese in 2014 households differ in their vulnerability to the consumption of a diverse and (WHO, 2017). In Kyrgyzstan, 47 percent of food price changes (Bierbaum and Baibagysh nutritious diet, contribute to food the population is affected by overweight and Uulu, 2015). Increasing food prices have security. Inappropriate breastfeeding and 14 percent by obesity (WHO, 2017). Armenia an adverse effect on the welfare of net food infant feeding practices can lead to adverse registers the highest rates of overnutrition: buyer households, and a substantial increase consequences in children’s development, 54 percent of the population is overweight in only one staple food is enough to cause physically and cognitively. According to the and 19 percent is obese (WHO, 2017). considerable losses of welfare (Bierbaum latest data, breastfeeding is almost universal and Baibagysh Uulu, 2015). The effect of in the three focus countries. Overnutrition affects women global food prices on consumer prices and disproportionately: their relative risk of the purchasing power of households is However, contrary to World Health being obese ranges from 1.3 in Armenia to demonstrated by how the consumer price Organization (WHO) recommendations, 1.7 in Tajikistan (WHO, 2017). Moreover, the index (CPI) in Tajikistan followed global a smaller proportion of infants under 6 fact that overweight and obesity are more prices. As food prices on the international months receive exclusive breastfeeding: prevalent among higher-income groups market increased, inflation instantly 34 percent in Tajikistan, 45 percent in suggests that behavioural patterns play an accelerated. (Al-Eyd, Amaglobeli, Shukurov, Armenia, and 56 percent in the Kyrgyz important role. and Sumlinski, 2012).
FIGURE 7. PREVALENCE OF OBESITY AMONG MALES AND FEMALES
25% 2.0
1.72% 21.3% 1.46% 20% y
1.32% t
1.5 i 16.7% 16.1% s 15.1% b e 15% o o f 11.4% 1.0 is k 10% 8.8% l at i ve r e
0.5 R 5%
0% 0.0 TJK KGZ ARM
Male Female Relative risk of obesity (female to male)
Source: WHO (2017)
25 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report
3.2 POVERTY remarkable, given that in 2008, the poverty productive employment opportunities. As a rate was as high as 53 percent (WB, consequence, the poverty gap in this high Based on the international standard 2017). Although a substantial share of the mountainous oblast is double the national of USD 1.90 a day, poverty rates in population remains poor, poverty is relatively poverty gap. Hence, not only is the risk of all three countries have declined to shallow in all three countries. The poverty living in poverty higher, but the poor are also one-digit levels. In 2012, they ranged gap, which measures the average distance poorer than in the rest of the country. from 2.4 percent in Armenia to 4.7 percent to the poverty line, is below 10 percent in all in Tajikistan. (WB, 2017). Poverty at the three countries. At the same time, some regions – such as national lines also demonstrates decreases, Aragotsotn in Armenia, Chui in the Kyrgyz but the share of the population living in Poverty rates in rural areas are Republic, and Sughd in Tajikistan – benefit poverty remains considerable. In Tajikistan, consistently higher than in urban areas from thriving agriculture or industry and have for instance, the poverty rate decreased from and are lowest in the capital cities. substantially lower poverty rates than other 82 percent in 1999 to 31 percent in 2015 Geographical disparities are rather modest regions. (Seitz and Rajabov, 2017). Armenia and in urbanized Armenia but are very high in Kyrgyzstan witnessed similarly impressive Tajikistan. In Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, rural Certain household characteristics improvements in livelihoods. However, as areas register a 12 and 4 percentage point are associated with a higher risk of seen in Figure 8, poverty reduction has higher poverty rate than urban areas. (NSC, poverty in all three countries. Larger stagnated since the onset of the global 2017; TajStat, 2017). households and households with three or economic crisis in 2008. more children are more likely to fall into Poverty is characterized by regional poverty than the rest of the population. Low Poverty rates for 2015 show that the disparities. Armenia’s Shirak province education also increases the risk of poverty. prevalence of poverty measured at registers a poverty rate that is double the the national poverty line is relatively national average. Jalalabad in the south of Women-headed households are more similar in all three countries, Kyrgyzstan has an almost 25 percentage prone to poverty, and the female affecting approximately one third of point higher poverty rate than the country population in general suffers from serious the population. According to the WB’s average (NSC, 2017). disadvantages. One of the underlying indicators, the share of the population under reasons in Tajikistan is the end of the the national poverty line is 30 percent in Gordo-Badakhshan Autonomous Region comprehensive social safety nets for Armenia10, 31.3 percent in Tajikistan and 32.1 is the poorest region in Tajikistan and motherhood, including the protection for percent in the Kyrgyz Republic (WB, 2017). is characterized by its remote location, working mothers and child care support Tajikistan’s development is particularly limited infrastructure, and lack of programmes (WB, 2014a).
FIGURE 8. POVERTY RATES AT NATIONAL POVERTY LINES
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ARM KGZ TJK
Source: WB (2017) World Development Indicators. Note: no data for Tajikistan for 2010-2012 and for Armenia 2006-2008
10 The value for Armenia should be read with caution, as the latest figures from the National Statistical Committee show a lower poverty headcount ratio at 25.4 percent (NSC, 2017).
26 Gender disparities in poverty rates The disadvantaged position of women not been reached, and it registers a much exist in the region, with women in the economy further contributes higher prevalence of undernourishment than having a higher risk of poverty to their higher risk of being poor. As the other two countries. Malnutrition is the than men (WB, 2014a). In its 2017 Chapter 3 demonstrates, there is a significant greatest challenge for all three countries to Tajikistan country briefing, the WFP gap between the labour force participation tackle, with many of the children under 5 finds gender to be correlated with food and employment of men and women. still suffering from related consequences, insecurity: women-headed households Since independence, there has been a re- particularly in Tajikistan. have a higher rate of food insecurity and emergence of traditional gender roles, which lower shock resilience (WFP, 2016f). has been reflected in gender inequalities in Overweight and obesity rose in the past Single women and women-headed the labour market (Khitarishvili, 2016). decade, affecting the female population households are among the groups disproportionately. Food insecurity is largely most vulnerable to poverty, which is a Because of the predominance of small-plot driven by poverty, which, although rates vary, consequence of social and economic farming, a large share of women are family is still prevalent in the region. developments in these countries since the workers in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In collapse of the Soviet Union (WB, 2014a). Kyrgyzstan, 16.9 percent of females, but only The lack of productive employment 8.9 percent of males, farm family plots. opportunities keeps poverty persistent, The transition to market economies marked especially in rural areas, where much of the the end of comprehensive social safety nets In Tajikistan, the corresponding figure is population works in the agricultural sector, for motherhood, including the protection 19.1 percent for females and 12.5 percent which is characterized by low productivity, for working mothers and child care support for males (Khitarishvili, 2016). In Tajikistan, low wages, and high seasonality. programmes. two thirds of women are employed in the agricultural sector, which is characterized by As a result of civil wars and other conflicts, low wages and high levels of seasonality. particularly in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, the number of women-headed households Summarizing, food insecurity increased significantly (WB, 2014a). This remains a challenge in the region. trend is further fuelled by labour migration, It is underpinned by poverty, the which is predominantly a male phenomenon lack of food stability, and utilization in countries such as Tajikistan. With factors, including social norms and husbands migrating, women are left alone behavioural patterns. Tajikistan is the with the household duties. only country in the region where MDG1C has
FIGURE 9. POVERTY RATES BY AREA OF RESIDENCE, 2015
20% TJK 35% 23%
21% KGZ 34% 29%
25% ARM 30% 29%
Capital Rural Urban
Source: Authors’ compilation based on data from National Statistical Offices
27 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report WFP/Armenia
28 4. Social protection
Social protection programmes 4.1 OVERVIEW during the Soviet era provided MESSAGES: cradle-to- grave protection and The social protection systems of the covered a wide range of needs three countries follow a relatively and vulnerabilities. Programmes similar scheme, albeit developed to Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, comprised mainly social different extents. Figure 10 provides and Tajikistan have insurance, categorical benefits, a schematic overview of the main social and services. protection components in the three focus fairly comprehensive countries. social protection The economic collapse following the dissolution of the Soviet Union led to The focus is on regular programmes that systems. surging unemployment, lowered living are legislated, financed, and implemented standards, and poverty. by governments. The preventive function – in the form of social insurance, including They generally Soviet-type welfare systems were difficult pensions – is the largest component to sustain financially, and many countries of the social protection systems. It is comprise social started to reform their social protection underpinned by protective measures, such insurance, social plans to ease budget resources and as social assistance cash transfers and assistance, and social increase efficiency. school feeding programmes. services. Remittances Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan The promotive function of social protection are no exceptions; however, they are at (in Figure 10 reflected as productive safety play an important role different stages of the reform process. nets) is either lacking or reaches only a as informal safety relatively small share of the population in The governments of the three countries all three countries. nets. have demonstrated commitments to reduce poverty, improve livelihoods, Social services are present everywhere, but and strengthen the resilience of their they cover a varying range of needs from School feeding populations by introducing numerous country to country. Given that informal programmes are now reforms, cooperating with international support, predominantly in the form of development partners, and spending remittances, functions as a safety net, it is part of national social resources on social protection included as a separate component in the protection strategies provision. overall scheme. and are gradually being taken over by governments.
29 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report
FIGURE 10. MAIN COMPONENTS OF SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE REGION
SOCIAL PROTECTION
ACTIVE LABOUR SOCIAL INSURANCE SOCIAL ASSISTANCE SOCIAL SERVICES MARKET POLICIES
Long term benefits Cash transfers
School feeding programme Short term benefits Productive safety nets
INFORMAL SOCIAL PROTECTION (REMITTANCES)
Source: Authors’ elaboration
4.1.1 SOCIAL ASSISTANCE design and implementation. The FLSEB and groups of the population, not necessarily PROGRAMMES the TSA use proxy means tests to identify with an explicit poverty or vulnerability eligible households. focus. Social assistance programmes in the region typically consist of cash The MBPF identifies eligible households As a response to the increase of energy transfers, which are either poverty- through a detailed means test. Although the prices, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan introduced targeted or categorical. Categorical MBPF is only available for households with compensations and subsidies to ease transfers are targeted at vulnerable groups, children, which excludes a part of the poor the burden of energy costs. In Tajikistan, such as the elderly and people with disability, and food insecure population by design, the the TSA will replace cash subsidies. In or privileged segments of the population. TSA in Tajikistan and the FLSEB in Armenia Kyrgyzstan, next to explicit energy subsidies also provide benefits for households without and compensations, energy prices are Targeted Social Assistance (TSA) children, indicating a more inclusive and substantially below market prices. programmes aim to protect and enhance comprehensive approach to social assistance the incomes and consumption of poor and its functions. The population of the Eastern households and have the potential to Europe and Central Asia region contribute to the food security and nutrition Benefits are currently flat rate in all three is vulnerable to a number of of populations. The flagship poverty TSA countries. covariate shocks, such as natural programmes in the three countries disasters, economic developments are: In addition to the poverty-targeted in neighbouring countries, and schemes, various categorical cash fluctuations in global food and • The Family Living Standard transfers and energy subsidies are energy prices. Enhancement Benefit (FLSEB) in currently in place in the countries. Armenia; In all three countries, social pensions are Yet, none of three countries has developed available for persons above retirement age, a social protection system that can • The Monthly Social Benefit for Poor adults, and children with disabilities and respond to such shocks. Only Armenia Families with children (MBPF) in the survivors if they are not entitled to a social has developed mechanisms for disaster Kyrgyz Republic; and insurance pension. management under the Government Decree “Approving the Livelihood of Evacuated • The Targeted Social Assistance (TSA) In 2016, Armenia also introduced a non- Populations”. programme in Tajikistan. contributory maternity benefit and provides lump-sum benefits at the birth of a child. In A contingency plan describes the Although all three flagship programmes Tajikistan, funeral benefits are provided to capacities of the government and the provide regular cash transfers and are low-income families. In the Kyrgyz Republic, humanitarian community to respond to the means-tested, there are some differences in categorical benefits are provided for various needs of displaced population.
30 4.1.2 SOCIAL INSURANCE the size of the informal sector, the ineligibility their home countries at one point, not being PROGRAMMES of informal sector workers for pensions is a eligible for insurance pensions. This creates challenge for the formal systems, now and in a challenge as returning migrants will not be All three countries have the future. eligible for contributory pensions on their comprehensive social insurance retirement, which is expected to increase the systems. They include the coverage of The recent reforms introduced multi- pressure on government budgets. long-term or lifetime risks – associated with pillar pension systems in Armenia and old-age and disability – and temporary risks Kyrgyzstan. Armenia introduced a voluntary Temporary risks commonly insured – including unemployment, sickness, or pension fund in 2011, and starting from by the social insurance systems motherhood. 2017, all public servants have to contribute are unemployment, sickness, to the second pillar. In Kyrgyzstan, in addition and motherhood. Unemployment Social insurance pension systems to the basic pension, which is funded from benefits differ in terms of the benefit include old-age pensions, disability the state budget, there are three insurance values, duration, and eligibility criteria. pensions, and survivor’s pensions components, including Pay-As-You-Go Kyrgyzstan provides a flat rate benefit in all three countries, and they are (PAYG) and Notional Defined Contribution equivalent to 10 percent of the subsistence primarily accessible by formal sector (NDC) elements. In Tajikistan, the pension minimum to the officially unemployed. workers. These benefits are contributory, system consists of two pillars: a PAYG basic Benefits can be received for a maximum meaning that eligibility depends on meeting pension and individual accounts. of six months in a year, and no more than a statutory minimum contribution period, 12 months within a three-year period. and on the occurrence of the insured risk Contributory pension systems struggle Eligibility requires previous contributions – in this case, old age or disability. If the to respond to the phenomenon of to the Employment Assistance Fund contribution period is not met, contributors external labour migration. This is (OECD, n.d.). In Tajikistan, benefits are may be eligible for a pro-rata benefit. With especially true for Tajikistan, where migration linked to the insured person’s previous respect to informal sector workers, only the is at its peak, and where the pension system’s earnings, with a replacement rate of 50 Kyrgyz Republic offers the opportunity to financial sustainability is already under percent in the first, 40 percent in the contribute to the pension system and accrue pressure. Labour migrants working in Russia second, and 30 percent in the third month. pension rights. In Armenia and Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan pay contributions in their The duration of the period is only three this possibility seems to be lacking. Given host countries, but are expected to return to months per year, and requires proof of WFP/Maxim Shubovich
31 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report
past employment in the formal sector. and a holistic approach to social work are of the commission, relevant ministries, and The Armenian social insurance system present at the same time. government agencies are working on legal does not cover loss of employment, and technical regulations to develop the but unemployment may be a reason for The most important social service framework for sustainable and high-quality eligibility for the emergency assistance functions to be strengthened in school meals. under the FLSEB. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are referral systems and the gatekeeping The second component of the co- All three governments provide benefits mechanisms in child protection. operation is a pilot project, in to mothers of newborns that cover These are essential to meet the needs of which the Government of the Kyrgyz the period of their maternity leaves. the population, to remove barriers to social Republic and the WFP implement Depending on the number of births and any protection programmes, and to protect and improved school feeding programmes difficulties associated with birth, the benefits promote the interests of children. in selected schools. The main purpose are paid for 125–185 days. In Armenia of the pilot is to gain practical experience and Tajikistan, the benefits are equal to the in implementing best practices in school working mother’s full wage. In Kyrgyzstan, 4.1.4 SCHOOL FEEDING PROGRAMMES feeding. Providing adequate equipment and they are either equal to the wage or calculated infrastructure, disseminating knowledge on the basis of the “imputed rate11”. School feeding programmes are on efficient and effective management, and Kyrgyzstan and Armenia also provide more available in Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, training cooks are among the activities, along modest benefits to non-working or informally and Tajikistan, with differing rates with the provision of hot meals. The pilot employed mothers, whereas Tajikistan only of coverage and varying levels of programme has assisted 82,812 children as compensates for the lost wages caused by the government ownership. WFP has been of March 2017. inability to work. a partner of the governments of all three programmes in designing and implementing Selected schools have received canteen In all three countries, social insurance sustainable school feeding programmes equipment, of which 25–30 percent was systems also cover temporary inability that achieve objectives of protection funded by local authorities, parents, and to work because of sickness. The and promotion. Since the elements and donors, and the remaining 70 percent by programmes are contributory and thus circumstances of these programmes vary, WFP (WFP, 2016b). informal sector workers cannot benefit from all three school-feeding schemes are shortly them. Benefit amounts and the duration presented. To ensure that the government develops a depend on the earned wages and the nature sustainable budgetary framework for the of sickness. Since 2006, the Government of the programme, WFP continues to provide Kyrgyz Republic has been operating fortified wheat for the school meals, while a school meals programme, which is the government covers the remaining 87 4.1.3 SOCIAL SERVICES an integral part of the national social percent of school meal costs. Although this protection framework. To strengthen the is a large contribution to the overall costs of Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan quality and efficiency of the programme, the the programme, it is rather small in terms of are at different stages of social government with support of WFP launched total expenditure: 0.2 percent of GDP in 2015 service provision and reform, with the Optimizing School Meals programme in (OECD, n.d.). Armenia setting an example for 2013, initially for a duration of four years. other countries in the region. Social The cooperation between the government and School feeding in Armenia has first services can be an invaluable contribution WFP follows a two-fold approach. been rolled out as an emergency to food security and nutrition outcomes of assistance operation but it has since social protection and thus should not be The first is the development of a reformed become part of the national social disregarded when assessing a country’s national school meal strategy (including protection strategy. The Government of social policies. Armenia sets an example policy formulation and action plan for Armenia approved the strategy and action of a forward looking and modern vision of implementation) and capacity-building. plan on Sustainable School Feeding in 2013; social services. According to a government The national school meals policy until in December 2016, it adopted a Decree to decision12 approved in 2012, Armenia is 2025 is established in the document “Key establish the Sustainable School Feeding introducing integrated social services. This Directions for Development of the School Foundation. The goal of this organization is one of the most important reforms to the Meals Programme in the Kyrgyz Republic”, is to overcome challenges related to the social protection system. Integrated social which has been approved by the government. effective co-operation and coordination of services include more efficient, effective, An Inter-Ministerial Working Commission school feeding and to ensure the continuation well-coordinated, and monitored service has been established, chaired by the Vice and development of the national policy of delivery, where cross-sectoral co-operation Prime Minister for Social Affairs. Members school feeding.13
11 The imputed rate is a monetary standard used in Kyrgyzstan, set at KGS 100. 12 Decree 952-N approved on 26th July 2012 13 The school feeding programme in Armenia was first implemented in 2002 under the Transitional Relief and Recovery Assistance to Vulnerable Groups activity. The programme
32 WFP/Armenia
School feeding is available in school children in 33 schools. By 2015, it chains and local food production to provide Armenia’s ten provinces, with seven has reached 60 percent of all rural primary home-grown school feeding. programmes currently operated schools in the country, and provided a daily with assistance from WFP. The capital hot meal to almost 360,000 children in more Handover of covered schools to the Yerevan is not covered. Since 2015, the than 2,000 rural schools (WFP, 2015). government is envisioned starting from programme provided meals to 81,500 2018/2019. WFP will begin to hand over the primary school children and distributed take- The importance of the school feeding programme during 2018/2019 by transferring home entitlements to 1,700 kitchen helpers programme as a nutrition-sensitive 270 schools with 50,000 beneficiaries. The involved in daily school meals preparation. social safety net is highlighted in the next year, an additional 325 schools with The government is covering the school Tajik National Education Development 60,000 beneficiaries will follow (WFP, 2016a). feeding costs of 21,500 primary school Strategy for the period of 2012–2020 The school feeding programme will become children in Syunik, Vayots Dzor. and Ararat and in the National Social Protection an integrated part of the Tajik national social province. The long-term goal is a complete Reform Strategy until 2025 (WFP, protection system. Financing can be expected government takeover of school feeding, 2016a). In February 2015, President to be difficult, especially in the country-wide envisioned as a handover of one province Rahmon signed legislation to develop a expansion of the programme. Currently, per year. The next transfer from WFP to the national school feeding policy (Government school feeding is the WFP’s most costly government will be that of Tavush province, of Tajikistan, 2015). The decision aims project, with a yearly expense of USD 38 per expected to have been completed in 2017. to establish a framework to expand and beneficiary child. WFP is only responsible transform the current WFP-supported school for providing the meals, not for adequate The school feeding programme in feeding programme into a sustainable, infrastructure in schools, or for the salaries Tajikistan is implemented by the nationwide, government-owned programme. of school feeding workers (such as cooks). Ministry of Education with support It mandates the Government of Tajikistan These additional costs, and the expenses from WFP. It provides one daily hot meal to develop the legislative, institutional, and associated with increased coverage, must to primary school children from grades 1 budgetary frameworks for the programme by be met, ideally through cooperation among to 4 in public education institutions. At its 2021; to build management and monitoring WFP, the Government of Tajikistan, and initial roll-out in 1999, it covered 5,000 capacity, and to develop adequate supply international donors.
was followed up in 2010 by a new school feeding programme under the Project Development of Sustainable School Feeding to support food security and education of children through school meals and support the Government of Armenia to develop and implement a sustainable, cost effective, and nutrition-sensitive school feeding programme. In December 2012, the Government of Armenia approved the Concept of Sustainable School Feeding Programme and in August 2013, the government approved the Strategy on Sustainable School Feeding Programme and the Action Plan (Gov. of Armenia decision of 22 August 2013 N° 33).
33 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report
4.1.5 ACTIVE LABOUR MARKET government. The recipient family benefits 4.1.6 INFORMAL SAFETY NETS: POLICIES AND PRODUCTIVE SAFETY from a lump sum payment of 75 percent REMITTANCES NETS of the annual amount of the MBPF in two instalments. The household invests the The collapse of the Soviet Union, the Armenia and the Kyrgyz Republic have money into productive assets, such as transformation of the political and a number of active labour market crops production, livestock production, or socio-economic system, conflicts, policies in place, which include cash small entrepreneurship. (MLSD, 2017). and subsequent economic hardship for work, training, and micro-credit As part of the cooperation between the have caused widespread external programmes. However, programme Government of the Kyrgyz Republic labour migration in the region. Labour coverage is limited because eligibility is and WFP to strengthen and create new migration has become a characteristic of tied to official unemployment status in most productive safety nets, the Productive many post-Soviet countries, including cases. In the public work programmes, wages Measures of Social Development Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Because are too low to substantially contribute to project was initiated in 2014. The of unemployment, the dominance of seasonal households’ livelihoods. In Tajikistan, active pilot project is a complex programme, work opportunities, inadequate wages in labour market policies are underdeveloped, comprising food-for-work, food-for-assets, absolute terms, and low wages in relative meaning a complete lack of promotive social and food-for-training elements. As part terms compared to Russia and Kazakhstan all protection programmes in the country. of the cooperation, WFP provides policy contribute to the phenomenon. advice to the Ministry of Labour and Social In the Kyrgyz Republic, the Development (MLSD) in the development Remittances are important at the government in collaboration with of a national strategy on productive safety macroeconomic level and as a source international development partners nets. The second component is the piloting of income for households at the micro- is working on developing productive of productive safety net programmes level. As reflected in Figure 11, the value of safety nets to fill this policy gap. (PSNPs), such as support to income- incoming remittances in 2016 is an estimated In 2016, the Government of Kyrgyzstan generation and the creation and restoration 13 percent of GDP in Armenia, 34.5 percent launched the pilot project Social Contract of local infrastructure and community of GDP in Kyrgyzstan, and 26.9 percent as an additional element to the Monthly assets (WFP, 2016e). Finally, the project in Tajikistan. Remittances have played an Benefit for Poor Families. This programme includes a state system of short-term important role in improving livelihoods and consists of a one-time agreement between trainings for farmers. So far, 69,240 families reducing poverty in the region (Rajabov and a low-income household and the local have benefited from the project. Ziyaev, 2017).
FIGURE 11. REMITTANCES RECEIVED AS % OF GDP
60%
50%
40% P
D 30% G
% 20%
10%
0%
TJK KGZ ARM
Source: WB (2017) World Development Indicators
34 Reliance on remittances also carries Food insecurity of the population is risk of poverty. However, the latter finding, risks on the macro- and micro-levels. predominantly the result of poverty, based on data from the WB’s The Atlas of Brain-drain, as a consequence of external and it is exacerbated by factors Social Protection: Indicators of Resilience labour migration, can cause a country’s related to food utilization and stability and Equity (ASPIRE) database, is in stark human capital to leak and its workforce – all of which can be to some extent contrast to country-specific analyses. For to erode (EDB, 2013). The loss of skilled addressed by social protection. Poverty example, Gassmann and Trindade (2015) find workers hinders innovation and limits can be effectively addressed by social that, based on data from 2012, 85 percent of production potential. This can impede protection programmes if they reach the MBPF beneficiaries are located in rural areas. economic growth, increase poverty in the poor and provide benefits that contribute long-term, and decrease the returns of public to livelihoods. Incorporating promotive, Social assistance transfers are expenditure on education. On the household nutrition-sensitive, and nutrition-specific progressively allocated in Armenia, level, remittances are an unreliable form of elements into social protection systems with 75–77 percent of the funds social safety nets that cannot replace formal can further enhance the impact of these received by the poorest 40 percent of social protection systems. Remittance- programmes. This section evaluates whether the population in 2015 (NSSRA, 2015). receiving households are vulnerable to initiatives in Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and However, there is room for improvement in external shocks, such as the economic Tajikistan contribute to the alleviation of targeting. According to a study conducted by situation in the host countries. poverty and improve the food security and the Economic Development Research Center nutrition of the population. (EDRC), the inclusion and exclusion errors of the system are quite high. Approximately 4.2 SOCIAL PROTECTION 70 percent of extremely poor and 79 percent PERFORMANCE 4.2.1 COVERAGE, DISTRIBUTION, AND of all poor in 2014 were excluded from the ADEQUACY system (EDRC, 2014). Messages: Coverage with social assistance In the Kyrgyz Republic, not all social Social insurance programmes, programmes ranges between 7 assistance benefits are allocated in a particularly pensions, are percent and 28 percent and is lowest progressive manner. Although more than in Kyrgyzstan and highest in Armenia. 70 percent of the MBPF – the only poverty responsible for much of the Coverage in the total population and the targeted scheme – benefits are received poverty reduction in these poorest quintile is highest in Armenia with by the bottom 40 percent of the population countries. 28 percent and 40 percent, respectively. In (own calculations on KIHS 2015 data), the Tajikistan, 10 percent of the entire population cash compensations and other categorical Most of the social protection and 13 percent of the bottom 20 percent transfers are considerably less progressive expenditure in all three received social assistance transfers under in the allocation of funds. Exclusion errors countries is used for social the old system, but the comprehensive remain high with more than 80 percent of insurance provision, compared reform currently taking place is expected to the population belonging to the poorest increase coverage among the poor. Coverage quintile not benefiting from the MBPF (own to which the share of social is lowest in Kyrgyzstan, where the share of calculations on KIHS 2015 data). assistance is small. recipients is 7.3 percent in the population and 11.4 percent in the poorest quintile. The country-wide rollout of the TSA Low coverage and adequacy Coverage in rural areas is higher than in programme in Tajikistan is expected to hinder the poverty reduction urban areas in Tajikistan and Armenia, which have a pro-poor distribution and better impact of social assistance is in line with the greater prevalence of rural targeting of benefits. The newly calibrated programmes. poverty. In Kyrgyzstan, a lower share of the proxy means-test (PMT) formula is expected population receives transfers in rural areas, to substantially increase coverage of the Shock-responsive safety nets even though rural areas have a higher relative poorest. Assuming perfect implementation and the promotive function of social protection are currently lacking in the region, Note on the data used in this section despite the clear rationale To have comparable data, this chapter uses information from the WB’s of such measures in the ASPIRE database. This database “provides harmonized indicators which regional context. Gender and describe the country context where SPL programs operate, and show performance of social assistance, social insurance and labour markets nutrition objectives are not yet programs based on nationally representative household survey data from 122 incorporated in national policy developing countries” (World Bank ASPIRE website). The individual country making. reports use country-specific data. Hence, the numbers presented here may differ from those in the country reports.
35 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report
FIGURE 12. PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL POPULATION (LEFT) AND POOREST PRE-TRANSFER QUINTILE (RIGHT) COVERED BY ANY SOCIAL ASSISTANCE
100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80%
70% 70%
60% 60%
50% 50%
40% 40% % covered % covered 30% 30% 20% 20%
10% 10%
0% 0%
KGZ (2013)TJK (2012)TUR (2013) GEO (2012)UKR (2014)RUS (2015)AZE (2009) KGZ (2013)TJK (2012) TUR (2013)GEO (2012)UKR (2014)RUS (2015)AZE (2009) ARM (2015) ARM (2015)
Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total
Source: WB (2017a) Note: figures for Tajikistan refer to the old SA system. and complete take-up, Seitz and Rajabov The adequacy of social assistance minimum (OECD, n.d.). In Armenia, pensions (2017) predict that 55 percent of all transfers benefits is a crucial determinant of were on average 168 percent of the food will go to the poorest quintile and another 25 whether programmes can reduce poverty line in 2015 (NSSRA, 2016). In percent to the second poorest quintile. Even poverty and increase households’ Tajikistan, the average pension exceeds though the simulations and the preliminary economic access to food. In 2015, the the cost of the minimum food basket by 50 findings from the pilot predict that the TSA Armenian FLSEB benefit value surpassed the percent (ASIP). These ratios have improved will perform substantially better in terms of food poverty line by almost 26 percent and is considerably since 2010 but the Tajik system coverage of and progressive distribution, equal to 90 percent of the poverty line, which still has the lowest pension adequacy, which inclusion and exclusion errors are by is high enough to substantially increase poor is exacerbated by the low value of social definition inherent to the PMT method. households’ well-being. Benefit values fall pensions. behind in in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The Social insurance programmes protect Kyrgyz’ MBPF accounts for only 12 percent the elderly and the disabled from of household consumption in recipient 4.2.2 CONTRIBUTION TO FOOD falling into poverty, and ensure households belonging to the poorest SECURITY consumption smoothing during quintile14. The new TSA in Tajikistan provides times of temporary losses of wage TJS 400 per year per household (MLSD, The poverty reduction impact of social income. Pension programmes are the 2017), which is equivalent to only 6.4 percent assistance is modest in Armenia largest social insurance schemes in all of the monthly subsistence minimum. Even and low in the Kyrgyz Republic and three countries. In Armenia, 15.5 percent though this represents a ten-fold increase in Tajikistan. Of the social assistance of the total population were direct pension in comparison with the old education programmes in our three focus countries, the recipients at the end of 2015 (NSSRA, compensation, it cannot be expected to Armenian has the highest impact on poverty, 2016). In Tajikistan, 33.0 percent (ASSIP), substantially contribute to livelihoods and in terms of poverty headcount reduction and in Kyrgyzstan, 62.9 percent of the food security. (11.8 percent) and narrowing the poverty adult population, lived in households gap (28.6 percent) (WB, 2017a). The Kyrgyz benefiting from pensions in 2015 (author’s Social insurance benefits are more social assistance system closed the poverty calculations on KIHS 2015 data). As these generous than social assistance gap in the poorest quintile by 7.5 percent and programmes are not poverty targeted, the benefits. In Kyrgyzstan, the average value reduced the poverty headcount by 3.6 percent allocation of benefits is not necessarily of the old age social insurance pension has in 2013 (WB, 2017a). Whereas the data for progressive. surpassed 100 percent of the subsistence cross-country comparison collected by the
14 Authors’ calculations on KIHS data
36 FIGURE 13. POVERTY REDUCTION (%) - ALL SOCIAL ASSISTANCE -POOREST QUINTILE
90%
80% TJK (2012) 70% KGZ (2013) 60% TUR (2013) 50% RUS (2015) 40% ARM (2015) 30% GEO (2012) 20% UKR (2014) 10% AZE (2009) 0%
Poverty Gap reduction (%) - All Poverty Headcount reduction (%) - Gini inequality reduction (%) - All Social Assistance -poorest quintile All Social Assistance -poorest Social Assistance -poorest quintile (preT) quintile (preT) (preT)
Source: WB (2017a)
WB are from 2013, the MBPF has undergone FIGURE 14. POVERTY GAP REDUCTION (%) - ALL SOCIAL INSURANCE some reforms in 2015. The authors’ own -POOREST QUINTILE analysis of the Kyrgyz Integrated Household Survey (KIHS) data revealed that in 2015, the 72% 72% poverty gap reduction impact measured at the national poverty line was almost twice as 61% high as in 2013. 53% Social insurance programmes make an invaluable contribution to household income and food security and play a major role in poverty reduction in the region. The poverty gap 18% 20% reduction of all social insurance transfers – including disability and survivor’s pensions and temporary benefits – is highest (72 percent) in Kyrgyzstan and Armenia (71 percent) (WB, 2017a). Tajikistan registers a 20 percent poverty gap reduction via social insurance programmes. Source: WB (2017a)
Along with formal social protection from abroad would be below the poverty line consumption of households with migrant programmes, remittances have a without them. (Karymshakov et al., 2014). worker members was 15.6 percent higher measurable impact on poverty in Remittances act as internal stabilizers: the than the consumption of other households all three countries. First, remittances high rate of poverty reduction during times (NSSRA, 2017). represent a substantial part of household of contractions in industry was possible expenditure. Second, they decrease poverty because of the growth in remittances and School feeding programmes have levels considerably by increasing household demand for services (Williams, Larrison, proven to be effective in strengthening expenditure (Karymshakov et al., 2014). In Strokova, and Lindert, 2012). Data for food security and increasing human the Kyrgyz Republic, the consumption of Armenia show that remittances contribute to capital. A cost-benefit analysis in Armenia many households that receive remittances poverty reduction and to food security. The concluded that each dollar invested
37 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report
in the programme yielded an USD 7.1 return in a five-year period (WFP, 2016c). Approximately 80 percent of these benefits are generated from increased learning capacity of beneficiary children, and 12 WFP/Maxim Shubovich percent from the value of transfers to the households, allowing the investment of freed- up resources in productive assets (WFP, 2016c). Moreover, school feeding provides an additional incentive to send and keep children in school. In the Kyrgyz Republic, programme stakeholders highly appreciate the programme, with the improved meals and better Water Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) facilities (WFP, 2016d). School meal programmes create positive externalities by enabling households to save on average more than 10 percent of their budgets (WFP, 2016b). similar in Armenia and Kyrgyzstan: in 2015, The share of social protection these countries spent 27.2 percent and expenditure in the government budget 4.3 FINANCING OF SOCIAL 28.0 percent of total public expenditures may be read as an indication of PROTECTION (NSSRA, NSC) (Figure 15). Since the size political will to invest in this area. If of government expenditure relative to GDP so, social protection takes a higher place The three reference countries allocate is larger in the Kyrgyz Republic, social on the government agenda in Kyrgyzstan different shares of their resources protection accounts for a higher share of and Armenia than in Tajikistan. By sub- to social protection, with Tajikistan GDP there than in Armenia. The Government programme, social insurance programmes spending considerably less than of Tajikistan allocated 10.9 percent of its accounted for the highest expenditure Armenia and the Kyrygz Republic. resources to social protection in 2015 – in 2015, and poverty TSA programmes The level of social protection expenditure approximately one third of the share in the remained below 1 percent of GDP in all three as a share of government budget has been two other countries (TajStat, 2017). countries.
FIGURE 15. SOCIAL PROTECTION SPENDING AS % OF GOVERNMENT BUDGETS 35% 31% 29% 29% 30% 28% 27% 26% 28% 27.7% 27.2% t 25% e 26% bud g
nt 20% KGZ e 15% 15.1% ARM er n m 15% go v 10.9% TJK o f
13.4% 13.3%
% 10%
5%
0%
Source: NSSRA (2016), NSC (2016), TajStat (2016), OECD (n.d)
38 FIGURE 16. SOCIAL PROTECTION SPENDING AS % OF GDP In all three countries, the respective 14% ministries are responsible for the development of social 11.5% protection policies, whereas policy 12% 11% 10.6% 10.6% implementation is the responsibility 10.2% of either local departments of the 10% ministries or local government 7.6% authorities. Policy monitoring and P 8% 7.1% KGZ evaluation is also the responsibility of the D 6.8% 6.8% 6.5% G ARM ministries at the central government level. % 6% However, the capacity for effective monitoring 4.3% TJK and development is limited in all three 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 4% countries. All three are currently extending or developing and implementing management 2% information systems, including beneficiary registries, which will facilitate policy 0% monitoring in the future.
Source: NSSRA (2016), NSC (2016), TajStat (2016) 4.4.2 INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND DEVELOPMENT PARTNERS 4.4 INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS 4.4.1 GOVERNMENTAL INSTITUTIONS UN agencies have been active in the All three countries have formulated In all three countries, social protection CIS countries since the dissolution strategies guiding the future is the responsibility of a specialized of the Soviet Union and they have development of social protection. department or agency under an played an important role in combating In Armenia, social protection is a separate appointed line ministry, as summarized poverty and supporting the reform chapter in the Armenia Development in Table 1. In Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, and development of social protection Strategy 2014–2025. It is interesting that the social protection is in the same ministry as policies. WFP, FAO, Intenational Labour objectives of social protection in Armenia are labour and employment issues, whereas in Organisation (ILO), United Nations Children’s predominantly linked to poverty reduction, Tajikistan, as a result of recent institutional Fund (UNICEF), UNDP, and UN Women with no reference to food security and reforms, it has been transferred to the have supported the country governments nutrition outcomes. In the Kyrgyz Republic, Ministry of Health (MOH). in their fight for food security and poverty the National Sustainable Development reduction by providing technical assistance Strategy 2013–2017 and the Programme and capacity-building and by implementing of Development of the Social Protection The line ministries cooperate on their own programmes where critical gaps System of the Kyrgyz Republic 2015–2017 cross-sectional programmes with existed, thereby expanding the pool of serve as strategic plans for the reform of other ministries, such as those best practices in the region. UN agencies social protection. A new strategy for social responsible for finance, health, and have been the main actors pushing for protection is currently drafted. Tajikistan has education, and with government shock-responsive safety nets, promotive the National Social Protection Strategy for subordinate bodies responsible for measures, and nutrition objectives in social the Republic of Tajikistan until 2025. One of pensions and social insurance. In the protection. Major international donors in the strategic objectives s directly addresses Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, separate the region include the WB, the ADB, the food security: “Improved accessibility and government bodies are responsible for social European Commission, and the IMF. These availability of social services, income and insurance and pensions. In Armenia, the organizations have provided financial, food security to all individuals and families in State Social Security Service falls under the strategic, and policy advice to the region’s need over the life cycle.” line ministry. governments and their partners.
TABLE 1. LINE MINISTRIES AND SPECIALIZED BODIES OF SOCIAL PROTECTION PROVISION
Armenia Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan
Ministry of Labour and Social Line ministry Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs Ministry of Health and Social Protection Development Government body responsible for Agency for State Social Insurance and State Social Security Service Social Fund pensions and social insurance Pensions
39 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report
In all three countries development 4.5.1 SOCIAL PROTECTION FLOORS 4.5.2 THE FOUR FUNCTIONS OF SOCIAL partners coordinate in different fora. PROTECTION In Armenia, a working group on nutrition- To ensure that all people have sensitive social safety nets was created in decent living standards and that the Following the TSP plan, the current the WB project on rapid social response. The population’s economic access to a social protection systems in the group comprises the relevant line ministries, healthy, nutritious diet is fulfilled, three focus countries serve mainly the United States Agency for International basic income guarantees are essential. protective and preventive functions. Development (USAID), UNICEF, and WFP Social protection floors (SPF) guarantee the In Armenia and the Kyrgyz Republic, social and coordinates nutrition-sensitive social adequate basic protection of the population insurance benefits are effective in preventing protection and food security interventions. In in all life stages. This life-cycle approach poverty in the event of a life-cycle risk, such Tajikistan, development partners are combined ensures that the risks and vulnerabilities of as old age. In Tajikistan, the preventive in the Development Coordination Council, children, working age adults, and the elderly are function could be further strengthened with which has different clusters and working addressed. A SPF includes non-contributory higher social insurance payments. Yet, groups on social protection. WFP chairs the social assistance programmes, which are the size of the informal sector in all three cluster on food security and nutrition, and accessible to everyone in need. countries and the prospect of returning the EU and UNICEF coordinate the human migrants in the future put the current social development cluster, which includes a Armenia provides income guarantees insurance systems at risk. working group on social protection. In the that are accessible throughout the life Kyrgyz Republic, WFP and FAO co-chair the cycle. Although benefits are modest in size, For Armenia, the ILO’s statistical database Donor Partner Coordination Council (DPCC) and programmes focus on the protective estimates that 39.2 percent of workers were on Agriculture, Food Security and Rural function of social protection, the Armenian employed informally in 2015. No recent Development, while WFP and UNICEF co- social protection system contains all estimates are available for Kyrgyzstan and chair the DPCC on Social Protection. elements of a basic SPF. Tajikistan. However, it is reasonable to assume that Tajikistan, where agriculture The Kyrgyz Republic also offers employs a dominant share of the labour 4.5 SOCIAL PROTECTION GAPS AND income guarantees throughout the life force, might have an even higher degree of NEGLECTED ISSUES cycle, but with substantial coverage informality. gaps, particularly for children and Although CIS countries have come the working age population. Elderly are The protective role of social a long way since independence in relatively well protected with transfers that protection, predominantly in the form reducing poverty and have shown contribute to income security. The MBPF, of non-contributory cash transfers, is commitment to providing social which is responsible for the livelihood recognized and present in all three protection to their people, there are protection of children, needs to be expanded countries but is rather limited in still a number of gaps. horizontally and vertically. Existing active Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic. The labour market programmes and cash for work FLSEB, the MBPF, and the TSA are classic Social protection gaps and programmes are extremely limited and do social assistance programmes aimed at neglected issues fall into the not offer effective protection of the working- protecting the poor from further destitution. following categories: age population. They are complemented by social pension- type programmes for vulnerable groups 1. The comprehensiveness of social In Tajikistan, there are modest (elderly, people/children with disabilities, and protection, meaning the existence programmes in place to protect during survivors). However, the extent to which these of Social Protection Floors (as childhood and old age, but income programmes manage to protect the population in the ILO recommendation No. 202), and the ability of existing guarantees during working age are from poverty and destitution is relatively social protection programs to lacking. The TSA programme and social limited. The FLSEB in Armenia provides be preventive, protective, and pensions provide inadequate benefits benefits that exceed the value of the food promotive and transformative; and cannot close the social assistance poverty line. In the Kyrgyz Republic, and even gap. Working-age poverty is currently not more so in Tajikistan, (poverty-targeted) social 2. Shock-responsive safety nets; protected by non-contributory interventions assistance transfers are small, not reaching the 3. Considerations for gender and in Tajikistan. value of the extreme poverty line. population groups’ specific vulnerabilities to food insecurity, Informal sector workers’ access to Moreover, in all three countries exclusion including those of young children social protection is a pressing issue errors are substantial. To strengthen the and pregnant mothers, women in the region, and it is strongly linked protective function of their social protection and girls, rural and urban to the existence of SPF. As workers in systems, the countries need to expand populations; and the informal sector do not have access to coverage of the poor and increase benefit 4. Nutrition objectives in social contributory programmes – such as labour values. Only then can cash transfers protection. pensions, unemployment benefits, and contribute to food security and improve sickness benefits -, SPF play a critical role. nutritional outcomes.
40 The promotive function of social responsiveness of TSA. PMTs are not In a World Bank background paper, protection requires strengthening in all Kuriakose et al (2012) identify well-equipped to respond to transient poverty three countries. Public works programmes four design features that support or sudden changes in household welfare are currently the only promotive safety nets shock-responsive social protection as the indicators used to assess household in place for the working-age population but systems: welfare usually refer to stock, rather than flow they are limited in scope. In Armenia and variables. Assets, human capital stocks, and Tajikistan, there are no government-owned 1. Scalable and flexible infrastructure access are all characteristics programmes that increase cash for work programmes of considerable that generally endure over time. Moreover, coverage in response to climate size. In the Kyrgyz Republic, the current disasters and scale back once most PMTs are infrequently recalibrated public works programme is available only disasters are abated; given that they are very data intensive. Hence, to registered unemployed persons and the a climate-responsive targeting system could wages offered are very low: in 2011, the 2. Climate-responsive targeting ensure that households living in areas prone average remuneration received by a public systems, such as geographic to natural disasters are quickly identified works participant was 50 percent of the food targeting, to consider the and pooled under social assistance once a socio-physical basis of climate poverty line (Schwegler-Rohmeis, Mummert, vulnerabilities; climate-related shock occurs (Kuriakose et and Jarck, 2013). al., 2012). 3. Investments in livelihoods that Moreover, stakeholder interviews indicated build community and household There is a need for productive that the Kyrgyz public works programme resilience; and safety net programmes, which contributes little to the creation of sustainable 4. Promotion of better climate build livelihood supporting assets and productive infrastructure and asset risk management (for and infrastructure and increase bases. In addressing this gap, government example, through inter-sectoral the resilience of households and development partners play an essential role coordination and capacity- communities. Such programmes do not by implementing their own public works building). only provide income support in the short- programmes and supporting governments in Source : Kuriakose, et al. (2012). Climate-responsive social term but are crucial in countries prone to protection. A Background Paper for the World Bank 2012–2022 developing sustainable PSNPs. Social Protection and Labor Strategy. Washington, D.C.: The natural and economic disasters. A success World Bank. story on PSNPs enhancing resilience and School feeding programmes, food security is the programme in Ethiopia. available in all three countries, are This programme managed to simultaneously particularly important because they account for the suddenly higher consumer improve participating households’ simultaneously fulfil protective and prices. The Armenian FLSEB also foresees agricultural productivity, food security and promotive functions. They protect school emergency assistance. However, given that asset base, community infrastructure, and to children from hunger and malnutrition and coverage with non-contributory transfers is contribute to environmental transformation also ease the financial burden of households. limited, the systems may not be prepared to (WFP, 2012). The need for a productive safety Moreover, they support children’s human provide effective assistance in the case of a net approach has been widely recognized capital formulation, which is an essential covariate shock. and initiatives have been started in all promotive tool. three countries. In the Kyrgyz Republic, the The use of a PMT to determine social government and WFP are piloting PSNPs. In assistance eligibility as in Armenia Armenia, the Agricultural Seasonal Support 4.5.3 SHOCK-RESPONSIVE SOCIAL and Tajikistan limits the shock- Programme has features of a PSNP. It PROTECTION
A serious shortcoming of the current social protection systems is the lack of shock-responsive social protection programmes. The region’s vulnerability to natural disasters and economic shocks calls WFP/Maxim Shubovich for social protection systems that respond to risks in a timely and adequate manner.
Countries with at-scale cash transfer programmes find it easier to respond to natural disasters or other covariate shocks. For example, when the Kyrgyz Republic was heavily affected by the global food and fuel price crisis in 2008, the government in collaboration with the IMF and the WB topped-up the value of the MBPF to
41 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report
provides support to vulnerable households Throughout the life cycle, people Nutrition-specific and nutrition- so that they can cultivate their land but face vulnerabilities in food security sensitive social protection it only covers 6,300 households. The because of physiological and currently existing cash for work programmes sociocultural factors. Despite the Nutrition-sensitive interventions in Armenia and Kyrgyzstan can also be overwhelming evidence of the importance of incorporate goals and actions improved and expanded to contribute to the nutrition during a child’s first 1,000 days15, related to nutrition in addition to resilience against shocks. the food security of young children and their own goals. Such programmes can exist not only in social pregnant mothers does not receive sufficient protection but also in agriculture, Promotion of better risk management attention. education, and healthcare. They can has begun in Armenia, where address many factors that influence emergency sectoral groups among Urban and rural populations have nutrition, such as access to health UN agencies have already been different vulnerabilities to food care services, food security, and established. This is the first, essential security but social protection hygiene. Audiences with high step to create inter-agency collaboration for programmes do not take them into malnutrition rates can be targeted a timely, coordinated, and efficient response account. Rural populations register a higher for nutrition-specific interventions. to shocks. The research in the other two risk of poverty in all three countries, with the Nutrition-specific interventions counties has not revealed the existence of difference especially pronounced in Tajikistan tackle the immediate and some such emergency response platforms – a and Kyrgyzstan. Households in rural areas of the underlying causes of critical gap. are also more likely to depend on agriculture, malnutrition and undernutrition by which means that their livelihoods are providing, for example, food rations more endangered by natural disasters. or training in feeding practices. 4.5.4 CONSIDERATIONS FOR Yet, currently none of the social protection Source: UNICEF (2013) VULNERABLE GROUPS OF THE systems address the vulnerabilities and POPULATION needs of rural populations.
The fact that social protection interacts with cross-cutting issues, 4.5.5 NUTRITION-SENSITIVE SOCIAL such as gender equality, is neglected PROTECTION in the context of the three reference countries. Transformative policies aimed Food security and nutrition objectives at promoting gender equality and equity are currently embedded in the national do not feature in existing government-run social protection strategies in school social protection programmes. There are feeding programmes but are not no design modalities in place to address incorporated into other programmes. intra-household relations, such as unequal It is important to understand that improved bargaining positions by gender. food security outcomes are more than a mere positive externality of social protection Gender inequality in the labour market does measures. Policy makers should incorporate not only mean lower wages for women in desired nutrition outcomes when designing the present; it also impacts their access to and implementing programmes to accelerate contributory social protection benefits in the eradication of hunger. Although cash the future. In Armenia, the average pension transfers can contribute to food security by received by women in 2015 was 8 percent raising beneficiary households’ purchasing lower compared to men (NSSRA, 2015). power, attaching nutrition goals to social protection programmes could enhance food This difference is because of the more and nutrition security outcomes. In addition frequent interruptions in women’s to poverty, malnutrition and obesity are employment history. In Tajikistan and results of social norms and behavioural Kyrgyzstan, where pension amounts are factors. Thus, nutrition-specific and nutrition- linked to the level of previous earnings, the sensitive programmes are necessary to difference is presumably more pronounced comprehensively address the issue. because of the difference in wages, but no sex disaggregated data are available. The lack of this data demonstrates how little attention is given to the gender dimension of poverty and food insecurity.
15 See, for example, the Lancet series on Maternal and Child Nutrition published in the Lancet Journal throughout 2008.
42 WFP/Armenia
43 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report WFP/Kyrgyz Republic
44 5. Achievements And Challenges
5.1 ACHIEVEMENTS AND BEST MESSAGES: PRACTICES The scoping study has provided a number of valuable lessons and best practices on The study has identified a number of remarkable food security and social protection in the projects that can serve as best practices in and region. Good examples of functioning social protection programmes and approaches can beyond the region. The Optimizing School Meals be found in each of the three countries. Program in the Kyrgyz Republic, the comprehensive reform of social assistance in Tajikistan, and the 5.1.1 OPTIMIZING SCHOOL MEALS Integrated Social Protection Services in Armenia are IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC examples of solid policy design, implementation, Optimizing School Meals Programme and cooperation among stakeholders. (OSMP) in the Kyrgyz Republic is a prime example of a well designed and implemented social safety net with a strong nutrition focus and which Challenges, however, still exist as the countries combines protective and promotive move towards more comprehensive and resilient functions. systems. Social protection suffers from gaps in Strengths: provision and neglects the needs of some vulnerable - Strong monitoring and population groups. Social assistance cash transfers evaluation; have low coverage and adequacy. M&E systems are - Leveraging school feeding as underdeveloped. protective and promotive safety net; - SABER-SF policy goals in The needs of vulnerable groups are not addressed in Theory of Change. social protection provision. Emerging issues, such as
obesity, urbanization, and return migration provide An excellent monitoring and evaluation further challenges. Financing the expansion of social system, underpinned by a solid framework, is one of the main drivers behind the success protection will be a difficult, but not impossible task of the OSMP. The plan developed for the for countries in the region. programme serves two very important purposes. It is the basis for monitoring and evaluation, and it frames the school meals
45 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report
programme as a protective and promotive high per household, it is expected that given Armenia has chosen for the social safety net. Hence, it contributes to the its predictability and transparency recipient functional integration of four strategic positioning of school feeding on the households can use it in a more efficient way. existing agencies responsible social protection agenda. Findings from the pilot evaluation suggest for pensions, social assistance, that households had the impression that their employment, and disability The Theory of Change plan is well-being improved upon introduction of certification. Under the first Social based on the Systems Approach for the benefit (WB, 2014a). In female-headed Protection Administration Project Better Education Results – School households, the number of women active (SPAP), these services were co-located, Feeding (SABER-SF16) policy goals, in the labour force increased. The TSA also with upgraded facilities, integrated and it identifies the overall aim of had a positive effect on school attendance. management information systems, and the programme to ensure that all Children from recipient households were new case management procedures in 19 children in the Kyrgyz Republic are more likely to attend school (WB, 2014a). sites across the country. healthy, educated, and food secure. The definition of outcomes strengthens the The targeting performance is expected This model will be rolled out to another accountability of the government and WFP. to substantially improve because 37 integrated social protection centres This approach could be used to modernize of the revised PMT formula and the within the next four to five years within a school meal programmes in all CIS countries central electronic database system second phase of SPAP (SPAP2). and serve as an example for other social developed for this purpose. According protection interventions, such as productive to preliminary findings, the new targeting The integrated approach under the One safety nets programmes. method is more than twice as accurate Window model provides a location for when identifying the poor compared to the customers to access services, reduce the old system (WB, 2015b). Monitoring and number of visits, and the documentation 5.1.2 REFORMING SOCIAL ASSISTANCE evaluation is envisioned as an integral part of required. IN TAJIKISTAN the programme and will be facilitated by the electronic data management system (WB, Appropriate IT support systems allow The TSA programme of Tajikistan will 2014a). staff to address the needs of customers replace the inefficient compensations at one location and enable managers to for education and electricity in 2018. optimally use a resources. 5.1.3 INTEGRATED SOCIAL PROTECTION SERVICES IN ARMENIA The Ministry of Labour and Strengths: Social Affairs is reforming and - Overarching support to families; The integration of social protection improving its social protection services is one of the most service delivery and is undertaking - Capacity building at all levels; important reforms in the Armenian measures to strengthen analytical, - Improved targeting efficiency; social protection sector. The reform is monitoring, and evaluation guided by the imperative to provide more functions of agencies delivering - Electronic registry and M&E. efficient, effective, well-coordinated, and social protection benefits and monitored social protection services to services. every citizen requesting support. It is an example of a comprehensive social The reform of social protection service assistance reform in a country where provision is further supported by an government capacity particularly at the local Strengths: integrated Monitoring and Evaluation level is limited. The objective of the TSA is - Functional integration of four (M&E) system, which covers more than to improve the living conditions of the most agencies; 70 different programmes. vulnerable segments of the population by providing overarching support to families, - One Window model and case Moreover, WFP’s partnership with instead of delivering transfers for specific management system; MLSA and the WB resulted in purposes. Moreover, the TSA is envisioned to - Integrated M&E system; and the inclusion of food insecurity enhance the capacity of the government at all assessments as part of the evaluation levels to achieve more efficient management - Food security indicators and development of targeted social and administration processes in social integral part of social protection protection interventions for vulnerable evaluation. protection programming. Even though the households conducted by social annual benefit amount is not particularly workers.
16 SABER-SF is a World Bank tool developed together with WFP and PCD. SABER-SF is a government-led process that helps to build effective school feeding policies and systems. These in turn provide the foundation for strong nationally led and sustainable school feeding programmes that ensure school children receive the nourishment they need. SABER- SF is implemented in the form of a workshop, and the governments of all three countries have held them, with the participation of other stakeholders like UN agencies, donors and NGOs. SABER-SF workshop recommendations and action plans led to a continued capacity-strengthening approach with governments. The Kyrgyz Republic even conducted a follow-up SABER workshop, being the first country in the region to do so.
46 5.2 CHALLENGES budget. In the Kyrgyz Republic, the further Gaps: reduction of cash compensations to The close relationship between privileged groups could free up resources - Informal sector workers food insecurity and poverty requires to be redirected to those most in need. In uncovered by social protection; comprehensive safety nets that can Tajikistan, the overall fiscal commitment - Lack of shock-responsive social break the vicious cycle of hunger and to social assistance is low. Improving protection programs; poverty. All three countries studied in the effectiveness of transfers cannot be this report have made great achievements achieved without increasing spending. - Underdeveloped promotive in poverty reduction and social protection, social protection measures; but a number of challenges remain. These - Lack of nutrition objectives in challenges interact, and are best addressed 5.2.2 ADMINISTRATION, MONITORING, national social protection; and through a comprehensive reform of AND EVALUATION SYSTEMS social protection with the engagement of - Inadequate consideration of government and development partners. At the moment, none of the countries gender and population groups’ has a systematic monitoring and specific vulnerabilities to food insecurity and malnutrition. evaluation policy for their initiatives. Challenges: As a first step, electronic registries have - Cash transfers have low been developed in all three countries; coverage and adequacy; however, their use varies. The ePension If social protection is accepted as a basic system in Armenia, for example, currently is human right, the coverage of informal - Monitoring and evaluation used only for pension programmes. sector workers should be an evident systems are underdeveloped; necessity. In the context of the Eastern - Gaps remain in social protection In Tajikistan, the electronic registry Europe and Central Asia region, shock- provision; is currently being improved, and will responsive and promotive safety nets are encompass all administrative tasks particularly important, as the population’s - Emerging issues not associated with the new TSA programme. In resilience is increasingly tested by multiple yet addressed: obesity, the Kyrgyz Republic, an electronic registry types of hazards. International partners have urbanization, return migration; and has been created with support from the taken the lead on strengthening shock- WB. Switching to these electronic tools has responsive social protection and promotive - Financing challenges. decreased the resources needed to enter measures. and clean data by reducing time and labour and eliminating many potential data entry Nutrition objectives are incorporated mainly mistakes. in social protection programmes operated 5.2.1 LOW COVERAGE AND ADEQUACY by UN agencies, such as the WFP and OF SOCIAL ASSISTANCE As a next step, monitoring and evaluation UNICEF, and in national school feeding should be incorporated in the national policies. Other government-run national In all three countries, exclusion policy framework, and the data collected programmes, however, do not adequately errors are substantial. Although through registries should be integrated with consider these objectives. Armenia achieves a coverage rate of 40 these processes. percent in the lowest quintile, only 13 More attention needs to be paid to the percent and 11.4 percent of the poorest Moreover, the regular collection of needs and vulnerabilities of specific groups. quintile are covered by social assistance in household budget survey data is essential The transformative potential of social Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic (World for policy analysis. protection, for example. in strengthening Bank, 2017a.). gender equity, is entirely neglected by the current systems. It is expected that the new TSA programme 5.2.3 GAPS IN SOCIAL PROTECTION in Tajikistan will reach a considerably PROVISION higher share of the poor. Although social 5.2.4 FINANCING CHALLENGES assistance transfers are high enough For social protection to fulfil its to contribute to poverty reduction and purpose of preventing the loss of The estimated costs of closing the ensure a minimum food intake in Armenia, welfare, protecting from poverty and Social Protection Floor gap range adequacy remains very low in promoting long-term livelihoods, the between 1.7 percent of GDP in the Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. remaining gaps should be closed. Kyrgyz Republic and 5.1 percent of GDP in Tajikistan. Armenia would need Addressing the low value of transfers As discussed above, some important aspects 3 percent of GDP to close the SPF gap is foremost a financial challenge, even if of the social protection systems of CIS measured at the USD 3.10 international improved efficiency through better targeting countries are currently underdeveloped (for poverty line (Bierbaum, Oppel, Tromp, and may provide some room within the given more detail, see Chapter 4). Cichon, 2015). Providing income security
47 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report
and health care at national poverty lines is This poses a double threat to the future 5.3 THE WAY FORWARD – POLICY calculated to cost 0.7 percent in the Kyrgyz financing of social protection. In the RECOMMENDATIONS Republic, 2.8 percent of GDP in Armenia, short term, if migrant workers return, and 3.1 percent in Tajikistan (Bierbaum et the need for social assistance could The rationale behind social al., 2015). increase, putting immediate pressure protection for all is multifaceted, but on the system. In the long term, decent living standards and the right Mobilizing more funds for social assistance migrant workers’ lack of contributions to consume a healthy, adequate is challenging in all three countries. As the undermines the stability of pension diet are basic human rights. IMF concluded, the available policy space systems. Social protection is an essential has declined during the recent economic component in securing these rights. crises, as Central Asian countries have In PAYG schemes, which are common If SDG2 on Zero Hunger is to be achieved drained their financial assets and have in the region, it makes the funding of by 2030, governments, the international increased their foreign debt (IMF, 2016a). current pension payments difficult. development community and civil society have to work together to further develop Labour migration poses a further In all systems, the lack of contribution social protection systems in the CIS financial challenge.. Migrant workers are history and accumulated funds mean countries. not paying taxes and contributions in their that these people will not be eligible for countries of origin and therefore do not earn social insurance pensions, manifesting This is precisely what is envisioned in future entitlements for pensions and other in an increased need for social (non- SDG17 – a stronger commitment to social insurance benefits. contributory) pensions. partnership and cooperation.
FIGURE 17. CHALLENGES AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Challenges Recommendations
Costing & Financing social forecasting protection Public Finance Finding fiscal Management tools space Political will
Low coverage and adequacy SPF Minimum standards Policy dialogue 3P+T Gaps in provision Placing gaps on the agenda
Emergency issues Nutrition Graduation objectives not addressed Strengthening programme design Gender Training Underdeveloped administration, M&E
Strengthening programme Electronic registry Inefficiency of social systems and M&E implementation assistance processes
Source: own elaboration. Note: SPF stands for Social Protection Floor and “3P+T” for preventive, protective, promotive and transformative.
48 The challenges and the 5.3.1 STRENGTHENING THE DESIGN AND Improvements of the design of existing recommendations are in not isolated; IMPLEMENTATION SOCIAL PROTECTION policies are possible and advisable. they interact with each other. Therefore, PROGRAMMES For example, the incorporation of appropriate a comprehensive reform of social protection graduation mechanisms should be a is needed, in which stakeholders understand As the three countries have relatively mid-term goal. The international practice and react to these complex dynamics. A well developed and comprehensive shows that graduation (the removal of proposed way to comprehensively address social protection systems, the beneficiary families from respective benefit challenges is presented in Figure 17.. role of national stakeholders and systems) needs to be carefully designed. Financing shortages are a main challenge international partners is to strengthen Productive safety nets play an important role. to increasing coverage and adequacy, filling existing programmes and to address Governments should therefore be assisted in provision gaps, and addressing emerging country-specific needs. Regarding to develop normative frameworks (based on issues. Weak design and implementation existing programmes, especially social agreed-upon standards) for promotive social features (particularly administration and assistance in the Kyrgyz Republic and protection programmes. M&E) lead to an inefficient use of resources, Tajikistan, the most pressing challenge is which feeds back into the difficulty of to increase coverage and transfer adequacy. School feeding programmes are financing. A productive policy discourse, International partners can assist with building strongly embedded in the national with minimum standards, stronger policy the case for upscaling or discontinuing policy agenda, as reflected in design and implementation, is necessary to certain programmes, for instance by the inclusion of school feeding in strengthen social protection in the region. Yet conducting ex-ante policy analyses. national social protection strategies, for these improvements to bring about lasting Kyrgyzstan serves as an example in this and they are generally viewed as change, the financing of social protection case, as some of the categorical payments an excellent platform to deliver has to be solved. The MBPF in the Kyrgyz are not necessarily targeted to poor and nutrition-sensitive social protection Republic offers a cautionary example. . In vulnerable households. A comprehensive to children and families. As a next step, 2015, despite the lowering of the eligibility analysis of winners and losers of substantial governments should be assisted to develop threshold and the introduction of a flat- reforms should be carried out. Moreover, the institutional and budgetary frameworks to rate benefit, the number of beneficiaries UN agencies and international donors have take over and expand programmes currently decreased because resources were global expertise and a pool of evidence implemented by WFP and other development inadequate to finance the scaling up of the that can underpin strategic and technical partners. Further cooperation should also programme. decisions. focus on building monitoring and evaluation WFP/Abeer Etefa
49 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report
capacities, and developing supply chains and Although probably insufficient, previous common understanding of minimum local food production for home-grown school recommendations, such as improving the standards. Therefore, it is recommended feeding. efficiency of social protection by electronic that governments, in collaboration with registries or better targeting, can also be WFP and other development partners, The ministries responsible for social important in easing the financial challenges. develop a set of minimum standards protection in the three countries are for social protection, food security, and currently developing comprehensive Increasing social assistance nutrition. Minimum standards for social monitoring and evaluation systems spending is essential to improve protection should refer to ILO’s SPF for their social protection programme. outcomes, but it should be done with Recommendation (R202), since it covers Development partners, including WFP, should carefully selected tools of public the basic livelihood needs throughout the continue to provide technical assistance for finance management. Because this lifecycle and is already embedded in the the development of effective M&E systems is foremost a matter of political will and international and national policy arena. and for building the capacity of civil servants priorities, governments should ensure to use the systems. The new electronic adequate financing. In order not to increase The regional context of vulnerability to registries and M&E systems also provide an aid dependency, finance may be sustainably shocks and unemployment provides solid opportunity to entrench a nutrition-sensitive generated by reallocating spending from rationale for strengthening promotive safety approach to social protection. other government sectors, increasing tax nets. In addition to the protective function revenues, or expanding social insurance covered by the SPF, all four functions of Electronic registries contribute to coverage and contributions (Ortiz, social protection (as described by Devereux programme efficiency and provide Cummins, and Karunanethy, 2015). and Sabates-Wheeler, 2004) should be part administrative data that can be of the established minimum standards. used to improve the design and Though challenging, this is possible if implementation of social protection the political will exists. Currently, the ILO WFP has the expertise to support programmes. Although all three countries is working with the Governments of the governments in developing standards in collect household budget survey data, there Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, NGOs, and food security and nutrition. This would help is ample room for improvement to make donor partners to conduct an assessment- to mainstream nutrition objectives within the data useful for the evaluation of social based national dialogue on SPFs. This social protection and could contribute to protection programmes. project provides more punctual costs of an better integration among policies in social SPF and optimal policy options to achieve protection, agriculture, health, and food Questionnaires need to be adjusted it (ILO, 2016). security. to social protection policy realities so that each programme can be assessed At the moment, governments Policy dialogue on social protection separately. The lack of longitudinal (panel) struggle to finance their regular standards should also focus on data is a large gap in all three countries social protection programmes and placing unaddressed issues on the and the region in general. It is therefore not have little or no capacity to set policy agenda. There is an unmet need possible to measure chronic poverty and aside funds for scaling up during for shock-responsive social protection food insecurity. Nor is it possible to analyse emergencies. UN agencies and in the region. Ensuring that shock the reasons why people become poor or international donors can play a major responsiveness is incorporated in policy what makes them graduate out of poverty. role in financing shock-responsive safety agendas is essential. Establishing, or Household panel data would also allow nets. WFP and its partners can advocate where applicable, strengthening emergency the analysis of entry and exit from social for establishing a fund that would be preparedness councils, also should be a assistance programmes. ready to use in case a covariate shock priority. occurs. Timely response to natural and man-made disasters is essential. If funds The Special Preparedness Activities in 5.3.2 FINANCING SOCIAL PROTECTION are readily available, the scaling up of Armenia can provide a useful lesson in social assistance would not be delayed engaging governments and international As outlined earlier, addressing by requesting and raising money after partners to assess and reform resilience- social protection gaps will require disasters occur. building safety nets. WFP can advise considerable financial support from governments on how to incorporate governments. The financing of social cross-cutting issues, such as the gender protection is a main challenge that obstructs 5.3.3 FOSTERING POLICY DIALOGUE dimensions of food security, poverty and the scaling up of programmes and filling social protection. gaps. International partners, however, can The establishment of social assist in this process. If the minimum protection systems that meet general At the moment, gender considerations are standards for social protection are set and requirements dictated by human very limited, and WFP has the commitment agreed upon, the ILO, the IMF, the ADB, rights and needs and that address the and expertise to advocate for gender or the WB can assist the governments in vulnerabilities of populations in the mainstreaming. UN Women is active in the costing schemes and finding fiscal space. region has to be underpinned by a region and could be a strategic partner.
50 WFP/Armenia
51 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report references
ADB. (2013). Gender Equality and Food Security - Devereux, S., & Sabates-Wheeler, R. (2004). IMF. (2016b). World Economic Outlook Database. Women’s Empowerment as a Tool against Hunger. Transformative social protection. IDS Retrieved from www.imf.org/en/Data Mandaluyong City: Asian Development Bank. Working Paper, (October), 36. https://doi. org/10.4324/9780203842812 IOM. (2016). Kyrgyzstan: Extended Migration ADB. (2016). Tajikistan: Promoting Export Profile 2010-2015. Bishkek: International Diversification and Growth. Mandaluyong City: ECOSOC. (2007). Strengthening efforts to Organization for Migration (IOM) Mission in the Asian Development Bank. Retrieved from www. eradicate poverty and hunger. New York: United Kyrgyz Republic. adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/189730/taj- Nations. export-diversification-growth.pdf Karymshakov, K., Abdieva, R., & Sulaymanova, EDB. (2013). Migration and Human Capital of B. (2014). Worker’s Remittances and Poverty in Al-Eyd, A., Amaglobeli, D., Shukurov, B., and Kyrgyzstan: Impact of the Customs Union. Saint Kyrgyzstan. Presentation held at International Sumlinski, M. (2012). Global Food Price Inflation Petersburg: EDB Centre for Integration Studies. Conference on Eurasian Economies 2014. and Policy Responses in Central Asia. IMF Working Paper WP/12/86. Washington, DC: EDRC. (2014). Policy Environment Brief: Social Khitarishvili, T. (2016). Gender inequalities in International Monetary Fund. Protection. Yerevan: EDRC. labour markets in Central Asia. New York: UNDP. Babatunde, R. ., & Martinetti, E. C. (2011). FAO. (2008). An Introduction to the Basic KNOMAD. (2017). Migration and Remittances. Impacts of migrant remittances on food security Concepts of Food Security. Food and Agriculture Recent Developments and Outlook. Migration and nutrition of Farming Households in Kwara Organization of the United Nations. Rome. and Development Brief 27. Washington, DC: The State, Nigeria. Paris. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524- World Bank. 010-9491-z Batsaikhan, U., & Dabrowski, M. (2017). Central Kuriakose, A. T., Heltberg, R., Wiseman, Asia at 25. Brussels: Bruegel. FAO. (2015a). Nutrition and Social Protection. W., Costella, C., Cipryk, R., & Cornelius, S. Rome: FAO. (2012). Climate-Responsive Social Protection Bierbaum, M., & Baibagysh Uulu, A. (2015). Climate ‐ responsive Social Protection. Strategy. Kyrgyz Republic Food Prices and Household FAO. (2015b). Regional Overview of Food Washington, DC: The World Bank. Welfare. Report No. 99773-KG. Washington, DC: Insecurity Europe and Central Asia: Focus on The World Bank. healthy and balanced nutrition. Rome. Retrieved MLSD. (2017). Social protection experience in the from www.fao.org/3/a-i4649e.pdf Kyrgyz Republic. Presentation held in Bishkek. Bierbaum, M., Oppel, A., Tromp, S., & Cichon, M. (2015). Social Protection Floor Index: Monitoring FAO. (2016). Gender equality , social protection NSC. (2017). NSC Website. Retrieved from www. National Social Protection Policy Implementation. and rural development in Eastern Europe and stat.kg/ Berlin: Friedrich Elbert Stiftung. Central Asia. Budapest: FAO. NSC, MOH, & ICF International. (2013). Kyrgyz Blössner, M., & de Onis, M. (2005). Malnutrition: FAO. (2017). FAO Statistical Database. Retrieved Republic: Demographic and Health Survey. quantifying the health impact at national and local from www.fao.org/faostat/en/#home Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan and Calverton, Maryland, levels. Environmental Burden Disease Series (Vol. USA: NSC, MOH and ICF International. 12). Geneva. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. FAO, IFAD and WFP. (2015). The State of Food pone.0107040 Insecurity in the World: Meeting the 2015 NSSRA. (2015). Social snapshot and poverty in international hunger targets: taking stock of Armenia. Yerevan. Retrieved from www.armstat. Bread for the World Institute. (2015). 2015 Hunger uneven progress. Rome: FAO, IFAD, WFP. am/file/article/poverty_2016_eng_2.pdf Report: When Women Flourish... We Can End Retrieved from https://doi.org/I4646E/1/05.15 Hunger. Washington, DC: Bread for the World NSSRA. (2016). Social Situation of the Republic of Institute. ILO. (2016). Press Release: Assessment Based Armenia, 2016. Yerevan: NSSRA. National Dialogue (ABND) in the Kyrgyz Republic. Dershem, L., & Gzirishvili, D. (1998). Informal Retrieved from www.social-protection.org/gimi/ NSSRA. (2017). NSSRA Website: Retrieved from Social Support Networks and Vulnerability: gess/ShowProject.action?id=2790 www.armstatbank.am Empirical Findings from Georgia. World NSSRA, MoH, & ICF International. (2016). Development, 26(10). IMF. (2016a). Regional Economic Outlook - Middle East and Central Asia. International Armenia Demographic and Health Survey 2015-16 Monetary Fund. Washington, DC. - Key Indicators Report. Rockville: NSSRA, MOH and ICF International. https://doi.org/10.1017/ CBO9781107415324.004
52 OECD. (n.d.). Social Protection Background Paper: United Nations. (2015). Transforming our world: WB. (1986). World Development Report. The Kyrgyz Republic. Paris: OECD. The 2030 agenda for sustainable development. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Retrieved from https://sustainabledevelopment. Ortiz, I., Cummins, M., & Karunanethy, K. (2015). un.org/content/documents/7891Transforming%20 WB. (2014a). Analysis of the Safety Nets in Fiscal Space for Social Protection. Options to Our%20World. Pdf, (1), 1–5. https://doi. Tajikistan : Considerations for the Transition Expand Social Investments in 187 Countries. org/10.1007/s13398-014-0173-7.2 towards Greater Consolidation and Stronger Extension of Social Security Working Paper, 48, Poverty-focus. Washington, DC. ILO.(48). WFP. (2012). Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) Factsheet. Addis Ababe. WB. (2015). The State of Social Safety Nets 2015. Rajabov, A., & Ziyaev, B. (2017). People’s Washington, DC: The World Bank. Retrieved from wellbeing in Tajikistan: Consolidated findings WFP. (2014). Safety Nets and Social Protection: https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0543-1 of the World Bank, IOM, UNICEF, WFP and GIZ. Basics and Concepts. Rome: WFP. Dushanbe: World Bank. WB. (2015a). A moderate Slowdown in Economic WFP. (2015). WFP and the Government of Growth Coupled with a Sharp Decline in Schwegler-Rohmeis, W., Mummert, A., & Jarck, Tajikistan hold SABER school feeding workshop. Household Purchasing Power. Economic Update K. (2013). Labour Market and Employment Policy Press release on 20 April 2015. Retrieved from No. 2. Dushanbe: World Bank. http://documents. in the Kyrgyz Republic: Identifying constraints and www.wfp.org/news/news-release/wfp-and- worldbank.org/curated/en/160761467988919181/ options for employment development. Eschborn: government-tajikistan-hold-saber-school-feeding- Tajikistan-A-moderate-slowdown-in-economic- Deutsche Gesellschaft für Zusammenarbeit. workshop growth-coupled-with-a-sharp-decline-in- household-purchasing-power Seitz, W., & Rajabov, A. (2017). Country Profile WFP. (2016a). Country Programme Tajikistan Tajikistan. Presentation held in February 2017. 200813 (2016 – 2020). Rome: WFP. WB. (2015b). Press release: World Bank Dushanbe. Supported Targeted Social Assistance WFP. (2016b). Optimizing school meals in the Program Discussed in Dushanbe. Retrieved Sen, A. (1981). Poverty and Famines An Essay on Kyrgyz Republic policy brief. Bishkek: WFP. from www.worldbank.org/en/news/press- Entitlement and Deprivation. Geneva: International release/2015/11/27/world-bank-supported- Labour Office. https://doi.org/10.1086/451432 WFP. (2016c). School Feeding in Armenia targeted-social-assistance-program-discussed- Investment Case Cost-Benefit Analysis Report. in-dushanbe Stepanyan, A., Roitman, A., Minasyan, G., Ostojic, Yerevan: WFP. D., & Epstein, N. (2015). The Spillover Effects of WB. (2017). World Development Indicators. Russia’s Economic Slowdown on Neighbouring WFP. (2016d). Survey among key stakeholders Retrieved from http://data.worldbank.org Countries. International Monetary Fund. participating in WFP’s project “Optimizing primary Washington, DC. Retrieved from www.imf.org/ school meals in the Kyrgyz Republic” during WB. (2017a). The Atlas of Social Protection: external/pubs/ft/dp/2015/eur1501mcd.pdf 2015-2016 academic year. Bishkek: WFP. Indicators of Resilience and Equity (ASPIRE). Retrieved from http://datatopics.worldbank.org/ TajStat. (2017). TajStat Website. Retrieved from WFP. (2016e). WFP Kyrgyz Republic Country aspire www.stat.tj/ Brief. Bishkek: WFP. TajStat, MoH, & ICF International. (2013). WFP. (2016f). WFP Tajikistan Country Brief. Tajikistan Demographic and Health Survey 2012. Dushanbe: WFP. Dushanbe, Tajikistan and Calverton, Maryland: TajStat, MOH and ICF International. WHO. (2017). Global Health Observatory Database. Retrieved from www.who.int/gho/ncd/ UNDP. (n.d.). Kyrgyzstan Country Info. Retrieved risk_factors/overweight/en/ from www.kg.undp.org/content/kyrgyzstan/en/ home/countryinfo.html Williams , P., Larrison, J., Strokova, V., & Lindert, K. (2012). Social Safety Nets in Europe and UNICEF. (2013). Multi-sectoral Approaches to Central Asia : Preparing for Crisis , Adapting Nutrition: Nutrition-specific and nutrition-sensitive to Demographic Change , and Promoting interventions to accelerate progress. New York. Employability. Washington, DC.
53 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report ANNEXES
ANNEX 1: DIMENSIONS OF FOOD SECURITY • Utilization refers to the ability of individuals to utilize food through an adequate diet, clean water, sanitation, and health care The FAO elaborates on the concept by defining four dimensions of to reach a state of nutritional well-being where all physiological food security: availability, access, utilization and stability (FAO, needs are met. This dimension highlights the importance of non- 2008). food inputs in food security.
• Availability means there is sufficient food of appropriate • Stability, as defined by the World Food Summit, is critical to quality, supplied through domestic production or imports food security. It exists only when all people at all times can obtain (including food aid). This dimension applies on a national, rather and utilize the foods they need and prefer. Food insecurity, like than a household level, representing the amount of food in a poverty, can be chronic or transitory. Chronic food insecurity given country. exists when individuals or populations are unable to meet their dietary needs on a long-term, consistent basis. Transitory food • Access is fulfilled when individuals have adequate resources insecurity is most often a result of year-to-year variations in food to acquire appropriate foods for a nutritious diet. This element prices, household incomes, or domestic food production, all of is closely related to the entitlement approach to food security which influence the availability and accessibility of food (WB, introduced by Amartya Sen in his 1981 work Poverty and 1986). Famines. This publication transformed the way we look at hunger: rather than a mere shortage of supply, it is often caused by certain population groups being denied access to food (Sen, 1981). The literature identifies different forms of access: economic, physical, and social. Economic access refers to the purchasing power of households – the disposable income that people can use to purchase food. People have physical access to food if there is adequate infrastructure (such as paved roads and delivery systems). When population groups are denied access to food in situations of social unrest, marginalization or social exclusion, their social access to food is unfulfilled.
54 ANNEX 2: TABLES
TABLE 2. URBAN POPULATION (% OF TOTAL)
Growth of urban population 2010 2016 (annual %) Armenia 64.7 62.6 0.1 Kyrgyz Republic 35.3 35.9 2.5 Tajikistan 26.5 26.9 2.6 Europe & Central Asia (excluding high income) 63.2 65.2 0.8
Source: WB (2017) World Development Indicators
FIGURE 18. INFLATION TRENDS AND FORECASTS (2000–2021) IN ARMENIA, KYRGYZSTAN AND TAJIKISTAN
Inflation (% Change) 45% 40%
I 35% P Tajikistan C 30% i n
e 25%
g
n Kyrgyz a 20%
h Republic C
15%
% 10% Armenia 5% 0%
-5%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source: IMF (2016b) World Economic Outlook Database
TABLE 3. OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES AND LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION, TOTAL AND BY SEX
Unemployment Rate Total Male Female Armenia (2015) 18.5% 17.6% 19.5% Kyrgyzstan (2015) 7.6% 9.0% 15.0% Tajikistan (2014) 2.4% - - Labour Force Participation Rate Total Male Female Armenia (2015) 63.6% 73.9% 55.1% Kyrgyzstan (2015) 63.1% 77.3% 49.6% Tajikistan (2015) 68.7% 77.7% 59.5%
Sources: a) Unemployment rates: Armenia: NSSRA (2016), Kyrgyzstan: IMF (2016b), Tajikistan: TajStat (2017); b) Labour force participation: World Bank (2017).
TABLE 4. REAL WAGES AT CONSTANT PRICES OF USD 2005
Russian Armenia Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Moldova Tajikistan Federation 2005 113.8 112.7 255.4 62.6 104.7 26.8 302.5 2014 220.0 286.4 435.7 133.2 171.0 116.5 538.7 Annual average 8.7 11.8 6.6 9.0 5.7 18.6 7.2 growth %
Source: (ADB, 2016)
55 Scoping Study on Social Protection and Safety Nets for Enhanced Food Security and Nutrition in the Central Asia Region - Regional Synthesis Report WFP/Elizabeth Zalkind
56 57 Graphic design: A.Mannocchi/Rome WFP/Emma Khachatryan Cover photo: WFP/Elizabeth Zalkind
WFP is the world’s largest humanitarian agency fighting hunger worldwide, delivering food in emergencies and working with communities and governments to build resilience. Each year, WFP assists some 80 million people in around 80 countries. Contact: [email protected] WFP/Kyrgyz Republic