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Last updated: Feb 14, 2016 最后更新2016年2月14日

The American Chamber of Commerce in South China 华南美国商会

Suite 1801, Guangzhou International Sourcing Center, No. 8 East Pazhou Avenue, Haizhu District Guangzhou, Gungdong, PRC 510335 中国广东省广州市海珠区琶洲大道东路8号 广州国际采购中心1801，邮编：510335

Tel. (86 20) 8335 1476 Fax. (86) 20 8332 1642 [email protected] http://www.amcham-southchina.org 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

2016年中国营商环境白皮书

The American Chamber of Commerce in South China 华南美国商会 February 2016 2016年2月 Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China 中国•广州 Review Committee 编审委员会

Harley Seyedin (Chairman) President, Allelon Energy Partners 哈利.赛亚丁（主席） 总裁，阿来龙能源

(In alphabetical order 以下按姓氏字母排列)

David Buxbaum Diane Fermin Roeder Attorney, Anderson & Anderson L.L.P. Editor in Chief, Paper Magazine 包恒 代理人，美国安与恩事务所 Andy Rusie Vice President Finance, Greater China Steven Cheng Mead Johnson Nutrition (China) Ltd. Vice President of Finance, Greater China Region Andy Rusie Amway (China) Co. Limited 大中华区财务副总裁，美赞臣营养品（中国）有限公司 郑锦清 大中华区财务副总裁，安利（中国）日用品有限公司 Richard Ren VP-Corporate Affairs, Vitasoy (China) Investments Co.,Ltd. David Hon, Ph.D. 任聿平 CEO, Dahon Technologies 副总裁-企业事务，维他奶（中国）投资有限公司 韩德玮博士 董事长，大行科技（深圳）有限公司 Tim Shaver Club Manager, Harbour Plaza Golf Club Dongguan Frederick Hong 田星华 Attorney at Law / Chief Representative, 会所经理，东莞海逸高尔夫球会 Frederick W. Hong Law Offices 康永华 Hui Sun 律师/首席代表，美国康永华律师事务所广州代表处 International Attorney 孙惠 Yuki Lu 律师 Communication Manager, AmCham South China 卢玉婷 Tim Wen 传讯经理，华南美国商会 VP & China Rep., Allway Co. Inc. 温天伦 David Peng 副总裁兼中国首席代表，美国百通集团 CEO, Medical Excellence International Joe Zhou 彭德智 Managing Director, American Appraisal, a division of Duff & Phelps 首席执行官，美荻康健康管理咨询（上海）有限公司 周赤宾 董事总经理，道衡美国评值 Thomas Podgurski Group Director, Royal Service Air Conditioning 谭保加士基 集团董事，皇家空调设备工程（广东）有限公司

Guy Robertson Vice President, WMGS Consulting (Shenzhen) Co. Ltd Guy Robertson 副总裁，沃盛咨询（深圳）有限公司 Contents 目录

President’s Message 6 会长致辞 8

Part I 10 第一部分 11 1.1 The New Normal 12 1.1 新常态 13 1.2 Supply-Side Economic Reform and The 13th 1.2 供给侧经济改革和“十三五”规划 Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) 16 （2016-2020） 17 1.3 Redefining Reform (in 2015) 20 1.3 重新定义中国的改革（2015年） 21 1.4 Rising Soft Power 50 1.4 发展软实力 51 1.5 Pilot Free Trade Zones 62 1.5 自由贸易试验区 63 1.6 Update on U.S.-China Trade & Investment 76 1.6 美中贸易投资新进展 77 1.7 An Overview on the Annual Development of 1.7 2015年中国知识产权法年度发展回顾 87 Intellectual Property Law of P.R.C. in 2015 86 1.8 建议 103 1.8 Suggestions 102

Part II 108 第二部分 109 2.1 Agriculture 110 2.1 农业 111 2.2 Chemicals, Bio-Chemicals and Energy 128 2.2 化学、生物化学与能源业 129 2.3 Machinery and Electrical Equipment 150 2.3 机械与电气设备业 151 2.4 Transportation and Logistics 164 2.4 运输与物流业 165 2.5 Products Classified by Materials 176 2.5 按材料分类产品 177 2.6 Construction 190 2.6 建筑业 191 2.7 Manufactured Articles 202 2.7 制造业 203 2.8 Hospitality 212 2.8 酒店业 213 2.9 Services 226 2.9 服务业 227

Part III 246 第三部分 247 3.1 Introduction to South China 248 3.1 华南地区简介 249 3.2 Guangdong Province 252 3.2 广东省 253 3.3 Fujian Province 260 3.3 福建省 261 3.4 Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region 264 3.4 广西壮族自治区 265 3.5 Hainan Province 268 3.5 海南省 269 3.6 Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 272 3.6 香港特别行政区 273 3.7 Macau Special Administrative Region 278 3.7 澳门特别行政区 279

Part IV 282 第四部分 283 4.1 Demographics 284 4.1 受访企业统计 285 4.2 Revenue and Profitability 292 4.2 收入和利润 293 4.3 South China 296 4.3 华南地区 297 4.4 Investment Trends 298 4.4 投资趋势 299 4.5 The Business Environment in South China 306 4.5 华南地区的营商环境 307 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

President’s Message

feel that this year I should reaffirm our goals with by the business community in the direction of China’s economy. Ithese White Papers, since our format deviates from the They also clearly demonstrate the need for accelerated reforms. norm. We do not aspire to partisanship, and as such we do not The most promising action by the Chinese leadership is its simply catalogue what we see as poorly-conceived, punitive move to introduce “Supply-Side Economic Reforms”, a subject or wrong. Instead, we see our Chamber’s constituents as a which we have addressed in detail in this White Paper. single piece of a much greater whole. In that context, we feel Judging from the results of the Chamber’s 2016 Special obligated to examine choices made by China’s leaders in terms Report on the State of Business in South China, it appears that, of the net good and net harm. Sometimes, this mandate is while still very concerned about equal treatment and limited at odds with what people have come to expect from White transparency, multinational business has greater confidence in Papers and other such publications of entities operating in the overall direction of the Chinese economy, in general, and China, and it can lead to the perception that we are not in the reforms currently being implemented by President Xi truthful. On the contrary, where we lean on rhetoric it is to Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang, in particular. communicate the urgency and potency of what we believe are For instance, when asked how they expect their company’s opportunities to draw the entire nation forward into history, operations to change within the next three years, the results, and not solely serve our own interests. A rising tide lifts all which showed “Services provided in China” and “China market boats, after all. share” as ranked first and second, respectively, indicated that, as We see our mission with this White Paper as describing the a whole, multinational companies expect more expansion, and current state of China’s economy as an interested, but objective, bigger margin in the Chinese domestic market. The results of participant. I have been told by various stakeholders that this the budgeted reinvestments in China in 2016 showed an 8.79% approach is uncommon, but welcome. increase in one-year reinvestment figures, suggesting confidence And so our White Paper is not simply a list of grievances. in the business climate in 2016. That is far easier to compile than what we attempt here, and we Regarding South China’s overall business environment, are happy to leave others to it. We aspire to record history, and this year, almost half of participating companies reported that to lay out arguments to sway leaders to a direction which we China’s economic reforms in 2015 to some extent positively fully believe to be beneficial for all participants in this country’s affected their operations in South China, while over 30 percent yet-growing economy. of participating companies reported that reforms have positively The publication of our Special Report on the State of influenced their operations to a great extent or a very great Business in South China and, more recently, its incorporation extent. This year, the percentage of participants, who reported into our White Paper on the Business Environment in China that China’s economic reforms didn’t bring any positive effect has become an annual milestone for the American Chamber of to their operations at all, dropped to 8.9 percent, indicating Commerce in South China. improved sentiment and perception towards reforms. These two publications represent a distillation of our now Moving on to specific initiatives, one of the new questions 2,300 members’ experiences, plans and insights in one of the most added to this year’s Special Report Study was the influence of the dynamic—and sometimes challenging—markets in the world. Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) between the United States and While the two studies show modest progress in the China on investment budgets of participating companies. Thirty- implementation of needed reforms, cautious optimism is seen seven percent feel their investments will increase with BIT, with 8

6 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

percent of these multinationals each increasing their investments track and that there needs to be renewed efforts for economic by US$250 million or more. Results indicate that a majority of restructuring. We feel that the Chinese leadership’s call for companies see the BIT, of which this White Paper provides a “supply-side economic reform”, announced in late 2015 as a recent update, as an opportunity for business development. strategic framework for the 13th Five-Year Plan, is particularly When asked about influences of the “One Belt, One Road” timely. While we are of the opinion that “supply-side reform” (OBOR) program initiated by the Chinese government, and in China may not exactly be one hundred percent equivalent which is also introduced and covered in this White Paper, 37.5 to President Ronald Reagan’s supply-side economic policies percent of participating companies expected their revenues to of thirty years ago, Premier Li was quoted as saying in both increase somewhat or greatly. This White Paper also examines local and international media in late December 2015 that the recent expansion of the pilot Free Trade Zone (FTZ) China has to enhance “structural changes” as part of “supply- program from Shanghai into other selected regions in China side economic reform.” According to the Premier, measures and our Study reported that 38 percent of participants reported for “supply-side reform” will include “introducing tax cuts, interest in expanding operations into a South China FTZ, with upgrading manufacturing facilities and embracing internet- a vast majority expressing preference for a Guangdong FTZ and based applications”, specific initiatives which are going to be Nansha emerging as a clear favorite with 67 percent of the vote. welcomed by companies with business operations in China. Another new question added to this year’s Study was the Cross- China faces a long and difficult journey in its road towards Border E-Commerce initiative by the Chinese government, as reform and a lot of work needs to be done. This White Paper for those companies who have been or plan on being involved, will show that modest, cautious progress is already being made 61 percent reported that most of their foreign imports will in structural economic reform initatives - as China’s partners, come from the United States. we can only encourage and support its leadership to stay the It is encouraging to observe the positive response of course and accelerate these reforms moving forward, for a multinational business to China’s ongoing economic reforms. stable, productive and successful 2016 for everyone concerned. As the Chinese economy continues to transition, moving from its former export-led manufacturing growth model to a more mature, sustainable, knowledge and services-focused model, following a similar economic trajectory to those of Japan and South Korea, the Special Report Study, as well as this White With best regards, Paper, cuts through the fog of negative media reports zeroing in on the decline of China’s export manufacturing industries. This year revealed that almost half of our Study participants are involved in manufacturing or trading goods and more than half involved in providing services; what unites those two groups is Harley Seyedin that 75.6 percent of all participants report providing goods or President services to the Chinese market as their primary business focus The American Chamber of Commerce in South China instead of creating goods or services for export. Vice Chairman, U.S.-China Trade and Investment Policy It is clear that China needs to put growth on a sustainable The Asia Pacific Council of American Chambers of Commerce

7 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

会长致辞

我想，今年我应该重申我们编撰《白皮书》的初 调查结果显示中国亟需改革的实施情况稳步发展。 衷，毕竟我们的《白皮书》与传统的白皮书稍有不同。我 对于中国的经济发展方向，商界持审慎乐观的态度。同 们不希望引起派别之争，也不会把我们看到的言论简单归 时，调查结果还反映中国需要加快改革的步伐。而在中 类为浅薄无知，或者恶意攻击，甚至是颠倒是非。相反， 国领导班子提出的方案中，最具前景的当数“供给侧经 我们认为商会会员构成一体，就像拼图其中的一小片，与 济改革”，本书亦将对其作详细介绍。 其他无数片一起，拼成一个格局更宏大的整体。所谓牵一 发而动全身，我们觉得有责任剖析中国领导层的决策，分 据华南美国商会出版的《2016年华南地区经济情况 析其中的利害关系。这就是我们编撰《白皮书》的初衷， 特别报告》显示，跨国企业对中国经济的整体发展方向 有时候这会与人们的期望相左，因为我们的《白皮书》与 信心有所增强，尤其是当前习近平主席以及李克强总理 传统的白皮书和其他在华商会的出版物并不完全一样，他 领导的一系列改革。 们可能会认为我们不够坦诚。恰恰相反，对于能够推动中 国创造历史的大好机遇，我们不吝于着墨论述，希望向读 例如，在“企业预计将会在未来三年改变的经济领 者传达这种历史机遇的紧迫性和重要性，而不仅仅为我们 域”问题上,“中国提供的服务”和“在中国的市场份 自己的利益服务。毕竟水涨船高，中国经济的增长将会让 额”分别名列第一、二。这反映了总体来说，跨国企业 所有参与者获益。 预期未来在中国本土市场实现更强劲的发展和获取更高 的利润。调查结果显示有8.79%的受访企业将增加企业 作为利益相关的参与者，我们今年《白皮书》的使 未来一年再投资预算，这表明企业对2016年经济状况充 命是客观地描述中国经济现状。许多公司股东告诉我， 满信心。 虽然有点不同寻常，但是他们欢迎这种做法。 在对华南地区整体经济环境评价方面，今年，将近 所以，我们的《白皮书》并不是抱怨，罗列抱怨比 半数的受访企业认为中国在2015年的经济改革为企业在 我们所做的事情要容易得多，我们就留给别人来做吧。 华南地区的运营带来了一定程度的积极影响。将近30% 我们渴望记录历史，我们综合论述各方观点，希望帮助 的受访企业则认为中国的经济改革较大程度或很大程度 领导层选择正确的方向。中国经济虽然有所放缓，但是 上积极影响了其在华南地区的运营。而选择中国的经济 仍然在增长，我们深信，这个方向一定能让所有参与者 改革对企业在华南地区的运营没有积极影响的受访企业 获益。 比例则下降至8.9%，这反映了受访企业对中国的经济改 革评价有所提高。 《2016年华南地区经济情况特别报告》以及《2016 中国营商环境白皮书》的出版，是华南美国商会每年一 在具体的倡议上，今年华南地区经济情况调查新增 个重要的里程碑。 的其中一个问题是关于美中双边投资协定对受访企业投 资预算的影响。37%的受访企业预计其投资预算将因双 这两本书代表了华南美国商会旗下两千三百余家会 边投资协定而增加，而在这部分企业中，8%认为其投资 员企业在这个世界上最具活力，但同时又极具挑战性的 预算将增加2.5亿美元或以上。结果显示多数企业认为 市场上的经验、计划以及深刻见解。 双边投资协定（本书相关章节将介绍其最新进展）对企 业发展有积极意义。

8 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

当被问到中国政府提出的“一带一路”发展战略 的措施将包括“减税、生产设备升级、互联网+”，以及 （本书相关章节将对其作介绍）对企业的影响时，有 其他将受在华企业欢迎的具体举措。 37.5%的受访企业预期该发展战略将使企业收入“一定程 度增加”或“大大增加”。本书相关章节将对中国自由 中国的改革是一个漫长而艰巨的过程，当中需要付 贸易试验区从上海到中国其他指定区域的拓展作介绍。 出巨大的努力。本书将对中国结构性经济改革取得的进 而华南地区经济情况调查结果显示，38%的受访企业表示 展作介绍。作为中国的伙伴，我们能做的只有鼓励以及 有兴趣在华南地区的自贸区扩大经营，而在这部分企业 支持其领导班子继续推行改革，并加快步伐，收获一个 中，多数企业选择广东的自由贸易试验区。其中最受受 稳定的、高效的、成功的2016。 访企业青睐的是“中国（广东）自由贸易试验区广州南 沙新区片区”,选择该片区的受访企业比例达67%。今年 此致 调查增加的另一个问题是关于中国政府提出的“跨境电 敬礼！ 商”倡议。在表示已经参与或者计划参与中国政府提出 的跨境电商新倡议的受访企业中，有61%表示企业的进口 产品来源于美国。

跨国企业对中国近期一系列经济改革的反馈非常 让人鼓舞。随着中国经济持续转型，从以出口为导向的 制造业增长模型发展为一个更成熟、更可持续的以知识 和服务为主导的增长模型，同时借鉴日本和韩国的经济 发展模式，《华南地区经济情况特别报告》以及《中国 营商环境白皮书》拨开了媒体负面报道的迷雾，客观看 待中国以出口为主的制造业的走弱。今年的调查结果显 示，近半数受访企业主要从事产品制造或贸易而过半数 的企业则主要为市场提供服务；两部分企业构成的总体 中，75.6%的企业主要业务范围是向中国市场生产产品 或提供服务而非针对出口。

显然，中国需要实现可持续发展，而这需要不断努 力进行经济结构调整。我们认为，中国政府领导班子在 2015年末作为“十三五”规划战略框架提出的“供给侧经 济改革”尤为及时。尽管人们认为中国的“供给侧经济改 革”未必与美国前总统罗纳德•里根过去的供给侧经济政 策完全相同，但是李克强总理曾在2015年12月向中外媒体 哈利•赛亚丁 表示中国亟需进一步深化“结构调整”以实现“供给侧经 华南美国商会 会长 济改革”。同时，李克强总理表示，“供给侧经济改革” 美国商会亚太地区理事会美中贸易及投资政策 副主席

9 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

Part I

Commentary

1.1 The New Normal 1.2 Supply-Side Economic Reform and The 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) 1.3 Redefining Reform (in 2015) 1.4 Rising Soft Power 1.5 Pilot Free Trade Zones 1.6 Update on US-China Trade & Investment 1.7 An Overview on the Annual Development of Intellectual Property Law of P.R.C. in 2015 1.8 Suggestions

10 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

第一部分

评论

1.1 新常态 1.2 供给侧经济改革和“十三五”规划（2016-2020） 1.3 重新定义中国的改革（2015年） 1.4 提升软实力 1.5 自由贸易试验区 1.6 美中贸易投资新进展 1.7 2015年中国知识产权法律年度发展回顾 1.8 建议

11 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

1.1 The New Normal

his year, when referring to the Chinese economy, tion of the currency. When the government set out to arrest a Tthe catch phrase among China’s government officials – stock-market slide in June, it first called for limiting the borrow- and the global media – has undoubtedly been “the new normal”. ing of money to buy shares, then confusingly reversed itself to Let’s take a look at what exactly does this mean and what are the encourage more borrowing. The results were dramatic uneven implications for doing business in China going forward. swings in the stock market and currency, rattling nerves and It is clear by now that China’s economy, in the midst of causing concern among global investors. 3 transitioning from its breakneck manufacturing and produc- Yet Xinhua reports that at the recent G20 summit in An- tion-fueled growth model to a more services-oriented and talya, Turkey, President Xi Jinping said that despite the recent knowledge-based model, is slowing down in the years to come, slowdown, China still contributed 30 percent of world eco- although economists may disagree about how much and for how nomic growth. The President remains bullish about China’s long. In 2014, the country’s GDP growth rate fell to 7.4 percent, economic prospects, saying that it was predicted that the econ- the lowest in almost a quarter century, and many expected that omy would grow around 7 percent this year, and will continue figure to drop further in 2015. According to China’s National contributing as high as about one third of global growth. The re- Bureau of Statistics, the country’s GDP growth rate was at 6.9 port added that “China’s confidence comes from its determina- percent as of the third quarter of 2015, with the growth in the tion and actions to comprehensively deepen reform, strengthen services sector offsetting the stagnation in manufacturing, keep- economic endogenous dynamism and policy guidance to build ing Premier Li Keqiang’s growth target within reach and exceed- a ‘moderately prosperous society’ and double its 2010 GDP and ing economists’ lower expectations of 6.8 percent. 1 per capita income of both urban and rural residents by 2020.” 4 Both President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang have Endemic in the transition journey of China’s “new normal” been quoted as calling this new, early stage of China’s develop- is the urgent need to pursue the reform agenda initiated by Pres- ment as “the new normal” in describing the economy’s crucial ident Xi Jinping’s administration nearly three years ago - a fact rebalancing, one in which China is undergoing the process of which was reiterated by China’s senior leadership earlier this year. diversifying its economy, pursuing a sustainable level of growth In speaking at the opening of the National People’s Congress and striving to distribute economic benefits more evenly.2 last March 2015, Premier Li Keqiang stressed the need to put So, what is “the new normal” in China? The first is a lower the economy on a more sustainable footing after three decades rate of economic growth – this is plainly obvious. The second of breakneck growth and priorities included pushing ahead is a focus on a new model of growth that places less emphasis with reforms of the giant state-owned enterprises that continue on investment and more on consumption, especially domestic to dominate the economy and liberalizing the banking system consumption. and financial markets. A key pillar of the reform agenda is tack- Transition to this new model requires commitment to the ling overcapacity in polluting heavy industries and moving its current administration’s ongoing structural reforms and long- manufacturing factories up the global value chain. Premier Li term policies. The Chinese government has done a tremendous said: “We will implement the ‘Made in China 2025’ strategy, job, in only 30 years, in crafting an institutional environment seek innovation-driven development, apply smart technology, that is generally conducive to business, including foreign busi- strengthen foundations, pursue green development and redou- ness. But in order for China to narrow the gap with more mature ble our efforts to upgrade China from a manufacturer of quan- global economies and in order to better serve as a sustainable tity to one of quality.” 5 engine of future, long-term economic growth, further improve- The Premier promised that the administration’s anti-corrup- ment of that environment is not only necessary but vital. tion campaign would continue unabated. Li said: “Our tough Of course the journey ahead is marked with daunting chal- stance on corruption is here to stay. Our tolerance for corrup- lenges. Events this past summer of 2015 bore witness to the tion is zero, and anyone guilty of corruption will be dealt with difficulties faced by China’s leadership in reorienting the coun- seriously.” 5 try’s massive economy. The central bank, seeking to invigorate Li also promised a greater role for private business in borrowing and spending, cut benchmark interest rates for the economy, which he said would be further opened up by a fifth time in 10 months and reduced the amount of money halving the number of industries in which foreign investment banks need to hold in reserve. It also issued a surprise devalua- is restricted. A draft foreign investment catalog issued in

12 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

1.1 新常态

今年提到中国经济，不管是中国政府官员，还是全 据新华网报道，习近平主席在出席在土耳其安塔利 球媒体，他们最常用的流行词毫无疑问就是“新常态”。 亚举行的二十国集团领导人峰会时表示，虽然中国经济 现在，让我们看看这个词是什么意思，以及它对我们以后 增长有所放缓，但是中国对世界经济增长的贡献率依然 在中国营商有什么启示吧。 达到30%。习近平主席仍然看好中国的经济前景，他说， 预计中国今年的经济增长率大约为7%，对世界经济增长 现在情况已经十分明朗。中国经济正处于转型之 的贡献率也仍然高达三分之一。这份报道补充说，“中 中，从生产制造业驱动的高速增长模式，转向以服务业 国的自信来自中国改革开放的决心和扎扎实实的行动。 为导向的知识型发展模式。在未来几年里，中国经济增 中国将会坚决推行全面深化改革，增强经济内在驱动力 速将有所放缓，不过经济学家对于放缓多少、持续多久 和政策导向，全力建设‘小康社会’，到2020年实现国 的问题尚未达成一致看法。2014年，中国国内生产总值 内生产总值和城乡居民人均收入比2010年翻一番。”4 增速下降至7.4%，达到近二十几年以来的最低点，很多 人预计2015年的增长速度会更低。根据中国国家统计局 在“新常态”的转型之路上，中国迫切需要推行习 的数据，中国2015年前三个季度的国内生产总值增速为 近平主席及其政府在近三年前提出的改革议程。中国政 6.9%，服务业的增长抵消了制造业的滞涨。这个增速达 府高层在今年年初也重申了这一点。 到了李克强总理年初提出的增长目标，超过了经济学家 们6.8%的增长预期。1 2015年3月，全国人民代表大会开幕，李克强总理 在大会上讲话时强调，经过三十年高速发展之后，中国 根据媒体报道，习近平主席和李克强总理都使用“新 经济必须在可持续的基础上稳步发展，目前经济工作的 常态”一词来概括目前中国经济发展的新阶段，他们用这 重点包括推进国有企业改革，继续发挥国有企业在国民 个词来描述对中国经济至关重要的再平衡过程。在经济再 经济中的主导作用，开放银行体系和金融市场等。改革 平衡时期，中国要改革经济结构，推动产业多元化，追求 亟待解决的重点问题之一，是污染严重的重工业产能过 可持续的增长，努力使经济利益的分配更加公平。2 剩问题，并且提升制造企业在全球价值链上的位置。李 克强总理说，“我们要实施‘中国制造2025’战略，坚 那么，中国的“新常态”意味着什么呢？首先是经 持创新驱动、智能转型、强化基础、绿色发展，加快从 济增长速度放缓，这是显而易见的。其次是增长模式的 制造大国转向制造强国。”5 转变，新的增长模式将会减少对投资的依赖，更加注重 消费驱动，尤其是国内消费。 总理承诺，政府的反腐败力度将会有增无减。他 说，“我们始终保持反腐高压态势，对腐败分子零容 要成功实现向新增长模式转变，中国必须全力推行 忍、严查处。任何人的腐败行为都必须严加惩治。”5 本届政府提出的结构性改革，而且把改革的政策长期执行 下去。在短短30年里，中国政府完成了大量的工作，成 李克强总理也承诺让私营企业在国民经济中发挥更 功创造了一个有利于企业（包括外国企业）经营的体制环 大的作用。他表示，中国经济将进一步对外开放，限制 境。但要缩少中国和其他更成熟经济体的差距，为未来的 外商投资的行业数量会减少一半。2014年11月，政府公 长期经济增长提供源源不断的驱动力，中国有必要进一步 布了《外商投资产业指导目录》修订稿，其中限制外商 改善经营环境。不仅是必要，而且是至关重要。 投资的条目从79条缩减至35条。5

中国前面的道路必然会有许多艰巨的挑战。中国 怀疑论者可能认为，今年中国在国有企业改革、 经济体量巨大，要扭转方向谈何容易。刚刚过去的2015 反腐败运动和自贸试验区等重大议题上并没有取得很 年夏天就见证了中国领导层会遇到的种种难题。为了活 大进展。然而，本白皮书的任务是就相关议题梳理重 跃借贷和支出，中央银行在十个月内第五次降低银行存 要政策，并分析近期最新进展对在外国华企业的启示。 款基准利率和银行存款准备金率，还突然宣布人民币贬 此外，本白皮书还将详细介绍中国今年发生的几项里程 值。六月，政府试图阻止股票市场暴跌，一开始要求限 碑式的重要事件，例如已经在中共十八大五中全会闭 制用于购买股票的资金借贷活动，然后又突然改变立 幕会议上审议通过的“十三五”规划，“十三五”规 场，转而鼓励更多借贷资金投入股市。这些混乱的措施 划与习近平主席提出的供给侧改革的关联，亚洲基础 导致的结果是股票市场和货币汇率的大幅震荡，震惊全 设施投资银行(AIIB)的成立，本届政府提出的“一带一 球投资者，也让他们深感忧虑。 路”(OBOR)建设方案，中国货币人民币历史性地加入

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November 2014 had reduced the number of sectors where Works Cited China limits foreign investment to 35 from 79. 5 While skeptics may argue that progress on such crucial mat- 1 “China’s GDP Growth Beats Forecasts as Stimulus ters as SOE reform, anti-corruption and the pilot free trade Supports Spending. “ Bloomberg. October 19, 2015. http:// zones have been modest this year, this paper will set out to tack- www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-19/china-s-gdp- le recent important policy developments in these areas and an- growth-beats-forecasts-as-stimulus-supports-spending alyze possible implications for foreign businesses. In addition, this paper will also delve into recent developments on signifi- 2 Hu Angang. “Embracing China’s New Normal.” Foreign cant China milestones this year, such as the 13th Five-Year Plan Affairs Magazine, Council on Foreign Relations. May/June2015. which was approved by top Communist Party leadership at the https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2015-04-20/ conclusion of the Fifth Plenum – and how the Plan relates to embracing-chinas-new-normal President Xi’s “supply-side reform”, the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the administra- 3 James T. Areddy, Lingling Wei. “The World Struggles to tion’s “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) initiative and the histor- Adjust to China’s New Normal.” Wall Street Journal. August 25, ic inclusion of the Chinese currency, the yuan, into the Interna- 2015. http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-world-struggles-to-ad- tional Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Special Drawing Rights (SDR) just-to-chinas-new-normal-1440552939 basket of reserve currencies. Lastly, in US-China relations, this paper will examine the results and aftermath of President Xi Jin- 4 Zhu Junqing. “Yearender: China’s Economy in ‘New ping’s State Visit to the US this year, as well as any updates to Normal’ Continues to Power Global Growth.” Xinhua. the US-China Business Investment Treaty (BIT). December 22, 2015. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015- The direction of the Chinese economy is very much in 12/22/c_134939787.htm transition mode, quite similar to how nations such as Japan (in the 1980s) and South Korea (in the 1990s) transitioned from 5 Koh Gui Qing, Kevin Yao. “China Signals ‘New Normal’ low-end reprocessing export oriented economies to high-end with Higher Spending, Lower Growth Target.” Reuters. March technology-oriented/consumer-based economies. Clearly, China 5, 2015. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-parliament- has taken steps to push itself away from a government investment idUSKBN0M103W20150305 economic growth model and is pushing towards a consumer- based economy. It is clearly feeling the pain of transition as those other countries did. It seems, however, to be staying the course of the “New Normal”. While the transition works its way through its narrative ex- pected (and unexpected) twists and turns, we encourage Chi- na’s leaders to stay the course and tolerate the painful present in order to reap the rewards of a better, stronger, more mature China in the future.

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国际货币基金组织(IMF)特别提款权(SDR)储备货币篮 子，最后还有美中关系问题。本白皮书将深入分析今年 习近平主席对美国进行国事访问时的谈判结果和后续情 况，并详细介绍美中双边投资协定(BIT)的最新进展。

中国经济已经完全进入了转型模式，与二十世纪八 十年代时的日本和九十年代时的韩国非常相似，这些国 家都经历过从低端加工出口型经济向高端技术导向型/ 消费导向型经济转变。很明显，中国已经采取措施，努 力摆脱对政府投资经济增长模式的依赖，积极朝着消费 驱动型经济模式迈进。就像日韩一样，中国正在经历转 型的阵痛。尽管如此，我们看到中国仍然坚持走“新常 态”的道路。

一路走来，中国经济转型也许会遇到意料之中（和 意料之外）的波折，但是我们希望中国的领导层继续坚持 走下去，只有忍耐现在的阵痛，才能收获丰厚的回报，才 能让未来的中国变得更美好、更强大、更成熟。

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1.2 Supply-Side Economic Reform and The 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020)

n order to manage China’s ongoing economic transi- According to The Economist, President Xi’s first mentions Ition and in preparation to launch the 13th Five Year Plan, of supply-side strategy or “gongjice” started occurring in details of which are scheduled to be released in March 2016, speeches in November 2015, followed by his December 2015 President Xi Jinping in late December 2015 revealed his ad- announcement, but he has yet to be as explicit as President ministration’s strategic framework in leading the transition. Reagan was with his economic program. The magazine According to a report in China Daily, when speaking at the speculates that President Xi may be attempting to “reinvigorate end of the Central Economic Work Conference, President Xi reforms”. Back in 2013, the Communist Party’s Central announced that China will be focusing on “supply-side re- Committee had called for market forces to take a “decisive” form, or a package of supply-side policies to release new de- role, placing the private sector on an equal footing with the mand and boost new productivity.” 1 state. While the Xi administration has been using the “new If the terminology has a ring of familiarity, then the reader normal” catchphrase to describe the economy’s slower yet was probably around during the 1980s, when supply-side pol- sustainable maturation, The Economist supposes that adding icies, popularly known then as “Reaganomics” (to advocates) “supply-side reform” sounds more like a call-to-action, quoting and conversely, “voodoo economics” (to detractors), formed Xinhua who had recently (and most succinctly) combined the the backbone of President Ronald Reagan’s administration eco- two catchphrases together: “supply-side structural reform is the nomic program. new growth driver under the new normal.” 3 Peter Ferrara, who served in the White House Office of So, what does President Xi’s supply-side reform really mean? Policy Development under President Reagan, wrote in Forbes Thankfully, late in December 2015,Xinhua released a helpful magazine that “Reaganomics” operated on an explicit, four- missive entitled “Backgrounder: What Is China’s Supply-Side point economic program aimed at reviving the then-collapsing Reform?” In providing a definition to supply-side management, American economy, which President Reagan inherited upon it adheres to classic economic textbook theory, stating that, assuming office in 1981: “Supply-side economics holds that the best way to stimulate economic growth is to lower barriers to production, particularly • tax rate cuts to incentivize economic growth, encourag- through tax cuts”. With reform under the Xi administration, ing companies to invest and produce Xinhua declares “attention has turned to stimulating business • government spending reductions through tax cuts, entrepreneurship and innovation while • anti-inflation monetary policy cooling money supply phasing out excess capacity resulting from the previous growth versus demand, to stabilize and strengthen the stimulus. Such measures are intended to increase the supply of value of the dollar goods and services, consequently lowering prices and boosting • deregulation, involving, among other things, the elimi- consumption” and generate “sustainable, quality growth.” nation of government price controls on oil and gas Xinhua then enumerates the following as “concrete examples” of China’s supply-side reforms, stating that “viewed as a whole, Mr. Ferrara then argues in Forbes that these economic these measures can also be considered ‘structural’ reform”: policies not only succeeded in reviving the American economy, but “amounted to the most successful economic experiment in • cutting housing inventories world history.” From 1982 until 1990, the US economy grew by • tackling debt overhang almost a third, created tens of millions of jobs, reduced inflation • eliminating superfluous industrial activity while unemployment reached record lows; the poverty rate • cutting business costs declined while the stock market boomed and the American • streamlining bureaucracy standard of living, measured by real per-capita disposable • urbanization income, increased significantly. 2 • abandoning the one-child policy4

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1.2 供给侧经济改革和“十三五”规划（2016-2020）

为了妥善管理转型中的中国经济，并为将于2016年 有企业放到同等重要的位置上。习近平政府使用“新常 3月正式公布的“十三五”规划做好准备，习近平主席 态”这一流行词来描述中国经济转型时期，其特点是增 在2015年12月底宣布了本届政府指导经济转型的战略方 速放缓，但发可持续而且日益走向成熟。不过，《经济 案。根据《中国日报》报道，在中央经济工作会议闭幕 学人》认为，增加“供给侧改革”一词，听起来更像是 时，习近平主席发表了讲话，宣布中国将致力于“供给 一个呼吁行动的口号，并援引新华网报道，后者近期把 侧改革，实施一揽子供给侧经济政策，以释放新的消费 两个流行词（非常简洁凝练地）组合起来了：“供给侧 需求，促进生产力发展。”1 结构性改革是新常态下的新增长点。”3

如果读者觉得这些词听起来有点熟悉，那么读者 那么，习近平主席提出的供给侧改革到底是什么意 可能经历过二十世纪八十年代。那时候，供给侧政策是 思呢？值得庆幸的是，新华网在2015年12月底发布了一 时任总统罗纳德•里根的政府经济政策的核心内容。这 份题为“新闻背景：中国的供给侧改革是什么？”的文 些政策，支持者称之为“里根经济学”，反对者则称之 章。文章遵照传统经济学教科书理论为供给侧管理下定 为“巫术经济学。”: 义：“供给侧经济学认为刺激经济增长的最佳方法，是 减少生产障碍，尤其是通过降低税收的方式。”对于习 彼得•费拉拉（Peter Ferrara）曾经在里根政府的政策 近平政府领导的改革，新华网称“其注意力已经转移到 发展办公室任职，他在《福布斯》杂志发表文章称，“里 通过降低税收、鼓励创业创新来刺激经济发展，同时逐 根经济学”建立在四个具体的经济措施之上，这四个经济 步消化因为以前的经济刺激政策而导致的过剩产能。这 措施旨在复苏当时面临崩溃的美国经济，这也是里根总统 些措施目的在于提高商品和服务供给，从而降低价格， 在1981年宣誓就职时面临的局面。 促进消费，创造可持续的高质量增长。”新华网文章罗 列了中国供给侧改革的“具体例子”，并认为“从总体 • 削减税率以刺激经济增长，鼓励企业投资和生产； 来看，这些措施也就是‘结构性’改革”： • 削减政府开支； • 实行反通胀的货币政策，控制货币供应量的增 • 房地产去库存； 长，稳定和加强美元币值； • 处置债务积压； • 放松政府规章制度对企业的限制，其中包括取消 • 清除过剩产业活动； 政府对石油和天然气的定价限制。 • 降低经营成本； • 精简官僚机构； 在《福布斯》的文章里，彼得•费拉拉认为这些经 • 城镇化； 济政策不但成功复苏了美国经济，而且“足以成为世界 • 废除独生子女政策。4 历史上最成功的经济试验。”从1982年到1990年，美国 经济总量几乎增长了三分之一，创造了数以百万计的就 政府对供给侧改革政策的介绍应该会在“十三五” 业机会，降低通货膨胀，同时失业率也降至历史最低， 规划（2016-2020）有详细说明。“十三五”规划是习 贫困率有所下降，股票市场蓬勃发展。以人均实际可支 近平主席上任后制定的第一个五年规划。据《华尔街日 配收入衡量，美国人民的生活水平也得到了显著提高。2 报》报道，这份规划已经在2015年10月召开的中共十八 届五中全会闭幕会议上审议通过。5 据《经济学人》报道，习近平主席在2015年11月 首次提到供给侧一词，此后他在讲话中反复提及该词， 新华网报道了五中全会闭幕后发布的公报。公报 到2015年12月作为改革战略正式宣布。但是，习近平主 称，“十三五”规划提出的目标是“经济保持中高速增 席尚未如里根总统一样提出具体的经济方案。该杂志猜 长”，到2020年实现国内生产总值和城乡居民人均收入 测，也许习近平主席是希望借此机会“为改革重新注入 比2010年翻一番。新华网报道援引习近平主席讲话称， 活力”。早在2013年，中国共产党中央委员会就提出要 为了实现这些目标，2016到2020年中国每年的经济必须 让市场的力量发挥“决定性”的作用，把私营企业与国 保持不低于6.5%的增长。公报表示，中国将会在未来五

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The current administration’s pronouncements on supply- Works Cited side reform policies seems to dovetail neatly with the 13th Five Year Plan (2016-2020)–the first to be generated under 1 Chen Jia. “President Xi Spells Out Supply-Side Reform President Xi Jinping–which, reported the Wall Street Journal, Bid.” China Daily. December 22, 2015. http://m.chinadaily. was approved by the Communist Party leadership at the com.cn/en/2015-12/22/content_22769800.htm conclusion of the Fifth Plenum in October 2015. 5 In a communiqué issued after the Fifth Plenum,Xinhua 2 Peter Ferrara. “Reaganomics Vs. Obamanomics: Facts and reports that the Plan targets “maintaining a medium-high speed Figures.” Forbes. May 5, 2011. http://www.forbes.com/sites/ of growth,” aiming to double its 2010 GDP and per capita peterferrara/2011/05/05/reaganomics-vs-obamanomics-facts- income by 2020. In order to do this, China must maintain an and-figures/ annual growth of at least “6.5 percent from 2016 to 2020”, Xinhua quoted President Xi in a statement. The communiqué 3 “Reagan’s Chinese Echo.” The Economist. January 2, 2016. stated that China will “promote clean industrial production, http://www.economist.com/news/china/21684804-mystery- low-carbon development and energy conservation to ensure xi-jinpings-supply-side-strategy-reagans-chinese-echo sustainable growth” in the next five years. China will “accelerate its opening-up of the capital market, and further opening-up of 4 “Backgrounder: What Is China’s Supply-Side Reform?” the service sector, including banking, insurance, securities and Xinhua. December 22, 2015. http://news.xinhuanet.com/en- nursing homes, to foreign investment,” the communique said. glish/2015-12/22/c_134941783.htm In addition, it will continue to “promote the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative through cooperation with countries and regions along 5 Mark Magnier. “China’s Communist Party Approves Five- the routes, and participate in global industrial and equipment Year Plan.” Wall Street Journal. October 29, 2015. http://www. manufacturing cooperation. ” President Xi declared, Xinhua wsj.com/articles/chinas-communist-party-approves-five-year- reports, that the Plan’s focus is for China “to seek growth plan-1446124597 through economic transformation, optimizing industrial structure, improving the environment and enhancing quality 6 “Spotlight: China’s Five-Year Plan Offers Model of Sustainable, and efficiency.” 6 Balanced Development.” Xinhua. November 9, 2015. http://news. xinhuanet.com/english/2015-11/09/c_134797917.htm

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年内“推动清洁工业生产，低碳发展，节约能源，以 保障可持续增长。”公报说，中国将“加快开放资本市 场，进一步向外国投资开放服务行业，包括银行、保 险、证券和养老院等。”此外，中国将继续“推进‘一 带一路’建设，推进同沿路国家和地区进行务实合作， 推进国际产能和装备制造合作。”据新华网报道，习近 平主席提出“十三五”规划的重点是“通过经济转型、 优化产业结构、改善生态环境、提升质量和效率来实现 中国经济增长。”6

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1.3 Redefining Reform

This section “Redefining Reform” is incorporated from our 2015 White Paper.

conomic reform in China had begun slowly in Mr. Zhu is regarded as the architect of the economic policies Ethe 1980s but radical reforms only took place after Deng that ushered in China’s second wave of growth. He broke down Xiaoping’s southern tour in early 1992. According to a 2007 trade barriers, cut runaway inflation, rescued China from the report by the China Policy Institute, it was “heavily debated Asian economic crisis in 1997, sold off state enterprises, broke whether China should adopt a market economy approach, up monopolies, ended state planning, introduced competition until 1992 when the 14th National Congress of the Chinese and deregulation, streamlined the bureaucracy and secured Communist Party (CCP) clearly stated that China’s economic China’s membership to the World Trade Organization. Mr. reform intention was to establish a socialist market economy. Zhu’s tough-minded policies included driving the military out The clarification of “market economy” status provided the of many of its commercial enterprises, reducing the number of necessary conditions for China to begin large-scale economic easy loans and credits to money-losing state-owned enterprises, decentralisation.”20 introducing a value added tax and diverting tax revenues to the In the decade succeeding Deng Xiaoping’s rule, Chinese Pres- central government. To create jobs, he launched Keynesian pub- ident Jiang Zemin and his Premier Zhu Rongji oversaw the han- lic works programs. dover of Hong Kong in 1997 and led their country until 2002, In 1997, the Chinese government set a three-year phased by which time it had propelled millions out of poverty and be- goal for the SOEs to turn around their loss-making condition. come one of the world’s most powerful economies. They guided In September 1999, during the Fourth Plenary Session of the China into the World Trade Organization and “ presided over Fifteenth Congress, the government adopted the policy of di- a series of wrenching reforms that saw much of the state-sector versifying SOEs’ share ownership to establish a modern corpo- dismantled and the welcoming into the [Chinese Communist] rate system. 20 Party of “advanced productive forces,” i.e. businessmen.” 18 In a 2009 special report published by FIRST Magazine Zhu Rongji was appointed Vice Premier in charge of to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the founding of the China’s economic reform in 1991. As Deng’s economic czar, People’s Republic of China, James McGregor, China expert and Mr. Zhu drew many admirers as he tamed inflation without former journalist for the Wall Street Journal, paints a colorful snuffling out growth by devaluing the yuan in 1994 by 33 description of China during the early Jiang years, “China is percent. He also laid the foundation for a banking system and simultaneously experiencing the raw capitalism of the robber was even considered as a possible recipient of the Nobel Prize baron era of the late 1800s; the speculative financial mania for economics20. In the mid-1990s, Zhu Rongji formulated a of the 1920s; the rural-to-urban migrations of the 1930s; the new strategy for SOE reform, which was called “grasping the emergence of the first-car, first-home, first fashionable-clothes, big and letting go the small” (zhua da fang xiao). It was officially first college-education, first-family-vacation, middle class established as China’s new economic reform strategy at the consumer boom of the 1950s; and even aspects of the social Fifteenth National Congress of the CCP in 1997, when Zhu upheaval similar to the 1960s.”23 Rongji became the Premier-elect. This strategy gave the SOE At the Sixteenth National Congress of the CCP in 2002, reform a clear direction, especially in the case of large SOEs. when Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao came to power, the direction After Mr. Zhu became the Premier in 1998, this strategy was of SOE reform was further readjusted. The government con- implemented to its fullest extent. 20 “Grasping the big” meant tinued to make efforts to restructure the state-owned economy making efforts to cultivate strong and competitive large and reform the state assets management system. In the first half enterprises and enterprise groups and develop them into cross- of 2003, the Stateowned Assets Supervision and Administra- regional, cross-sectional, multi-ownership and multinational tion Council (SASAC) of the State Council was established “to firms. “Letting go the small” implied that the government allow guide the reform and restructuring” of state assets.20 However, the small and medium-sized SOEs to face market forces. The most pundits observe that China during the decade of rule un- ultimate goal of this strategy was that the government would der Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, while marked by breakneck eco- be able to privatize most of the SMEs and would only control a nomic growth and seeming to remain stable despite an overseas limited number of large central and local SOEs. 20 financial crisis in 2007-2008, was generally characterised by a

20 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

1.3 重新定义中国的改革

以下章节摘自《2015中国营商环境白皮书》

中国的经济改革始于上个世纪八十年代，但是进展 机构、减少对亏损国企的信贷、引入增值税并转移税收 缓慢。一直到邓小平1992年南巡讲话之后，中国才开始 到中央政府。为了创造就业机会，他推出了凯恩斯式的 进行大刀阔斧的经济改革。根据英国诺丁汉大学中国政 公共事业项目。 策研究所在2007年公布的报告，“中国是否要走市场经 济道路，中国就此问题进行了反复争论。1992年，中国 1997年，中国设定了阶段性目标，要在三年之内让 共产党（CCP）召开第十四次全国代表大会，会议明确 国有企业扭亏为盈。1999年9月，在中国共产党十五届 提出，中国的经济改革目标就是建立社会主义市场经济 四中全会上，中国政府决定以多种形式改组国有企业股 体制。“市场经济”这一概念的确立，为中国开始大规 权，建立现代企业制度20。 模经济分权创造了必要的条件。20 2009年，为了纪念中华人民共和国成立六十周年， 邓小平从领导岗位上退下来之后，其继任者江泽民 曾经是《华尔街日报》记者的中国通麦健陆（James 主席和朱镕基总理执政了十年。在他们的领导下，香港 McGregor）撰写了一份特别报告并在《FIRST》杂志发 于1997年顺利回归；到2002年政府换届时，中国已经成 表。在报告中，麦健陆对江泽民上任之初的中国社会做 为世界上最强大的经济体之一，帮助无数中国人摆脱了 了非常精彩地描述。他说:“当时中国的经济环境非常 贫困。他们领导中国加入世界贸易组织，并“主持进行 复杂，既有19世纪末期强盗贵族时代的原始资本主义， 了一系列艰难的改革，包括解体和重组国有企业，商人 也有20世纪20年代的金投机性金融狂热；既有20世纪30 也成为[中国共产党]‘先进生产力’的组成部分。”18 年代那种农村向城市迁移的态势，也有20世纪50年代的 中产阶级消费热潮——­ 出现了第一辆车、第一次置业、 1991年，朱镕基被任命为国务院副总理，执掌中国 第一批时尚的服装、第一次大学教育、第一次家族旅 经济改革大权。他是邓小平亲自提拔的政府高官，其改革 行；甚至出现的社会动荡，在某些方面也类似于20世纪 经济的魄力吸引了很多支持者。1994年，为了抑制通货膨 60年代。所有这些情况却在中国同时发生。”23 胀，保持经济增速，朱镕基决定让人民币贬值33%。他也 为建立现代银行制度奠定了基础，甚至有人认为他应该 2002年，中国共产党召开了第十六次全国代表大 获得诺贝尔经济学奖20。在上个世纪九十年代中期，朱镕 会，中国进入胡锦涛和温家宝执政时代，国有企业改革 基提出了国有企业改革的新策略，其基本思路是“抓大放 的方向又有了进一步调整。政府继续致力于重组国有经 小”。1997年，在中国共产党第十五届全国代表大会上， 济，改革国有资产管理制度。在2003年上半年，国务院 朱镕基当选为国务院总理，他提出的“抓大放小”思路正 成立国有资产监督管理委员会（SASAC），目的是“引 式确立为中国经济改革的基本方针。这一方针为国有企业 导国有资产的改革和重组”20。然而，多数专家认为， 改革提供了明确的方向，特别是大型国有企业。1998年， 在胡锦涛和温家宝执政的十年间，虽然实现了经济高速 在朱镕基正式就任国务院总理后，“抓大放小”策略得到 增长，在2007-2008年全球经济危机爆发期间也保持稳定 了全面实施20。“抓大”，是指着力培育实力雄厚、竞争 发展，但就总体而言，中国的改革缺乏实际行动。 力强大的大型企业和企业集团，使其可以成为跨地区、跨 行业、跨所有制和跨国经营的大企业集团。“放小”在意 这十年的经济繁荣，大部分都必须归功于中国上 味着政府放开中小企业，使其进入市场参与竞争。这条策 一届政府的领导人江泽民主席和朱镕基总理，他们率先 略的最终目标是让政府能够使大多数中小型企业实现非国 进行了很多影响深远的改革，为后来十年的经济增长奠 有化，同时控制数量有限的大型央企和地方国企20。 定了基础。在胡锦涛执政期间，政府又重新扶持国有企 业，导致原本初有成效的改革出现逆转。据《华尔街日 普遍认为，朱镕基总理提出的经济政策，引领中国 报》报道，2011年，国有企业在数量上的比重继续回 经济进入了第二个高速增长期。他消除贸易壁垒，降低 落，下降到5%，但是国有企业仍然占据主导地位，在工 失控的通货膨胀，成功抵御1997年亚洲金融危机，出售 业总产值的比重相对较高，达到26%21。 国有企业，打破垄断，结束国家计划经济，引进市场竞 争，放松市场管制，精简官僚机构，确保中国加入世界 正在中国应对全球金融危机之时，中国在2009- 贸易组织。朱镕基总理的强硬政策包括让军队撤出商业 2010年间出现过一次放贷热潮，这对中国经济未来的发

21 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

lack of action on reform. observe, China’s government agencies began issuing “official Much of the credit for that economic boom must go to Mr. regulations, statements, and editorials supporting reform goals Hu’s predecessor Jiang Zemin and his Premier Zhu Rongji, who and hinting at the evolving internal discussions about reform had spearheaded far-reaching reforms that laid the foundations implementation. These releases covered an array of reform of the decade’s growth. Under Mr. Hu’s administration, some issues, including financial liberalization, the role of state-owned of those gains have been reversed, as the government again lent enterprises (SOEs) in the economy, administrative licensing, support to its state champions. According to the Wall Street and tax reform” 1. Journal, the number of state-owned enterprises as a share of Also in 2013, two major developments of significance oc- the total continued to fall, dropping to 5 percent in 2011. But curred – widely perceived as the response of President Xi Jin- with SOEs still dominant, their share of total output remained ping and his new generation of advisers and leaders to mitigate relatively high at 26 percent21. the risks of a major economic slowdown: A lending splurge in 2009-10 as China responded to the global financial crisis also hurt its future growth prospects. The • In September 2013, the Shanghai government ratio of outstanding credit to GDP increased from around 116 announced the launch of the China (Shanghai) Pilot percent in 2002 to 172 percent in 2011, according to China Free Trade Zone (SFTZ), a pilot area for broader Real Time [Wall Street Journal] estimates.21 economic reforms in areas such as investment Critics of [Mr. Hu and Mr. Wen] argue that reforms have approvals, trade facilitation, financial innovation, risk stalled on their watch, as they focused, “above all, on keeping management, and administrative licensing1. China stable.” “Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao’s generation could • In November 2013, President Xi Jinping and his have achieved a lot, but they did not,” said Yao Bo, a former government laid out, at the Communist Party’s Third China Daily columnist. “They inherited good foundations, but Plenum of the CCP’s 18th Party Congress, a road they did not make a difference,” he added.22 map for the reform necessary to replace the current On November 2012, President Xi Jinping assumed leader- economic model and reinvigorate China’s growth. ship of China as a strong advocate for a new wave of economic Known as the “Decisions,” the report at its core called reforms. He inherited an economy that was already showing for market forces to assume “a decisive role in allocating a sharp deceleration, likely to sink to 6.8 percent in 2015 and resources”2. The Third Plenum served as a platform 6.5 percent in 2016, according to a recent forecast outlined in for the broader reform agenda, through both high- Newsweek magazine by Wang Tao, the chief China economist level statements and a set of post-plenum documents at UBS.2 that provided more detail on the direction of reform. After years of double-digit annual growth, this type of These documents included key indicators of priorities, slowdown – “growth that falls too far below 7 percent” could including setting a “decisive” role for the market in the be “dangerous” for China’s ruling Communist Party, states the economy, reforming China’s tax and finance regime, same Newsweek report, visualizing that “the prospect of young and improving foreign investment.1 college graduates not being able to find jobs, or of poor farmers migrating to new urban areas only to be unable to find work, or Daniel Rosen, a principal at the Rhodium Group, a New of large firms going bankrupt, triggering layoffs, worries China’s York consultancy, and author of a November 2014 report pub- leadership.”2 lished by the Asia Society on the prospects for economic reform Mindful of this, China’s leadership had earlier already in China, argues that “China’s development model is obsolete begun an active discussion on the process of promoting and and in need of urgent, not gradual, replacement.” 2 implementing economic reform but the discussion was not In Mr. Rosen’s report, he notes that “to justify the risks [of accompanied by any actual meaningful implementation. As reform], President Xi quoted an impassioned plea for policy observed by the US-China Business Council Economic Report modernization by his predecessor Deng Xiaoping: the only way Scorecard, the discussion process really “advanced in late to avoid a dead end – a blind alley – is to deepen reform and 2011, more than a year before China’s 2012-2013 leadership opening both at home and with the world.” 15 transition”, just a year before the ascension of Xi Jinping as In the same report, Mr. Rosen outlines the intriguing co- China’s president and head of the Chinese Communist Party nundrum faced by China in the next several years, speculating (CCP) and Li Keqiang as premier and head of the powerful that “if Beijing shifts direction along the lines it has announced, State Council. The US-China Business Council noted the behavior of Chinese companies, government agencies, and that“Mr. Xi came to power as a strong proponent of economic individual members of society is likely to change in remark- reform, fueling speculation about its scope, scale, and speed” 1. able ways – and thereby create opportunities for the rest of the In 2013, the US-China Business Council continued to world. Should the reform program stall, the effects will be just

22 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

展前景造成消极影响。据华尔街日报旗下的《中国实时 管理和行政许可等领域扩大改革。1 报》报道，2002年，未偿还信贷总额占国内生产总值比 • 2013年11月，在中国共产党第十八届三中全会 重约为116%，到了2011年，该比重攀升至172%21。 上，习近平主席及其领导班子制定了一份旨在取 代现有经济模式、重振中国经济增长所需要的改 胡温政府的批评者认为，在他们执政期间，改革停 革路线图。这份报告简称为《决定》，其核心思 滞不前，因为他们的关注的重点，首先是维持中国社会 路是使市场在资源配置中起“决定性”作用2。 稳定。曾为《中国日报》撰稿的专栏作家姚博说，“胡 作为制定进行全面深化改革议程的平台，十八届 锦涛和温家宝一届政府应该可以做出更多成绩，但是他 三中全会通过的高规格公报和会后公布的相关文 们没有去做。他们继承了良好的根基，但却没有在此基 件，为改革的方向提供更多详细的指引。这些文 础上更进一步”22。 件明确指出改革工作的重点任务，包括要让市场 在经济中起“决定性”作用、改革中国的财税制 2012年11月，强烈提倡中国展开新一轮经济改革的 度和提高外国投资1。 习近平成为中国新一任国家主席。他从前任领导人手中 继承过来的中国经济已经呈现明显减速。根据《新闻周 荣大聂（DanielRosen）是纽约荣鼎咨询集团 刊》刊登的文章，瑞银（UBS）首席中国经济学家汪涛认 （RhodiumGroup）的创始人。2014年11月，荣大聂作为 为，2015年经济增幅可能降至6.8%，2016年降至6.5%2。 撰稿人，与亚洲协会政策研究所合作撰写了一份关于中 国经济改革前景的报告。他认为，“中国的发展模式已 《新闻周刊》的同一篇文章还指出，经历过多年 经过时，急需马上而不是逐渐作出转变。”2 高达两位数的经济增长之后，如果经济大幅减速，也就 是“经济增速远低于7%”，那就有可能会“危及”中国 荣大聂在报告中指出，“为了说明不改革的风险比 共产党的执政党地位。该文章还说，“年轻的大学生毕 改革的风险更大，习近平主席引用了老一辈领导人邓小 业之后无法就业，或者贫困的农民工来到新城镇地区也 平的话。在呼吁制定现代化政策时，邓小平说了一句振 找不到工作，或者大公司破产导致员工下岗，这些可能 聋发聩的话：不改革开放，只有死路一条。为了避免走 出现的情况让中国的领导层深感忧虑”2。 进死胡同，中国必须对内深化改革，对外扩大开放”15。

因为意识到这一点，中国的领导层很早就开始积 在同一份报告中，荣大聂概述了中国在未来几年 极讨论如何促进和实行经济改革，但是在讨论之后并没 里将会遇到的难题。据他猜测，“如果中国政府按照目 有采取真正有意义的行动。《美中贸易全国委员会经济 前对外公布的改革路线走下去的话，中国的企业、政府 报告计分卡》指出，“关于改革的讨论是2011年年底提 部门和社会各界人士的行事方式将会随之作出较大的改 出，在一年多之后，在2012-2013年间，中国政府完成了 变，从而为世界其他地区创造机会。要是改革方案被搁 领导层交接。”也就是说，在习近平成为中国国家主席 置，其带来的消极影响也同样深远。总而言之，无论中 和中共中央总书记、李克强成为国务院总理之前一年， 国新的深化改革政策的制定与落实成败与否，都会对亚 中国已经进行了关于改革的讨论。美中贸易全国委员会 洲地区、甚至全世界的经济发展、社会稳定和安全产生 指出，“习近平强烈支持经济改革，他上台以后，激发 重要影响。15 了各方面对改革范围、改革规模和改革速度的猜测”1。 2013年11月，中国共产党第十八届三中全会通过了 美中贸易全国委员会还说，2013年，中国政府部门 一份重要文件，即《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重 开始发布官方规定、公告和社论，支持改革的目标，所 大问题的决定》，简称为《决定》。随后官方公布了一 发出的的信号均围绕着关于实行改革的内部讨论。政府 份《关于<中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的 发布的这些信息，涉及到有关改革的一系列问题，包括 决定>的说明》，由习近平主席单独署名。荣大聂的报 金融市场自由化、国有企业在国民经济中的作用、行政 告指出，习近平主席发布单独署名文章“既维护了自己 许可、税费改革等。1 的权力，也表达了加快经济改革的坚定决心，而不是将 就各方意见，以协调一致的速度进行改革。习近平主席 2013年还发生了两件头等大事，普遍认为是习近平 为改革设定了严格的期限，要求到2020年完成一系列改 主席和新一代领导班子、智囊为应对经济增速可能出现 革任务”15。 严重下滑而采取的措施： 《决定》第一个重点内容是“调整政府职能”，具 • 2013年9月，上海市政府宣布启动中国（上海） 体包含以下八个核心目标： 自由贸易试验区（SFTZ），作为经济改革的试 点，在投资审批、贸易便利化、金融创新、风险

23 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

as profound. Either way, China’s new policy design, and its suc- raised SOE dividend payouts to the government, cut executive cess or failure in achieving it, will have a major influence on the compensation, and sent auditors to smoke out corruption and international economy and stability and security in Asia and special interest dealings.” 15 beyond.”15 In June 2014, shareholders in Hong Kong-listed Citic The core document issued in November 2013 during the Pacific recently approved a plan to buy the key operating assets, Communist Party’s Third Plenum of the CCP’s 18th Party including stakes in Citic Securities and Citic Bank, of parent Congress, known as Decision of the Central Committee of the Citic Group for US$36 billion. China Economic Review hails Communist Party of China on Some Major Issues Concerning this as “a landmark deal involving China’s first SOE to be run on Comprehensively Deepening Reform, or simply the Decisions, market-like principles” which has been “heralded as a blueprint was accompanied by personal Explanatory Notes under for state enterprise reform in the Xi Jinping-Li Keqiang era”, that President Xi’s name alone. With this, Mr. Rosen’s report notes, the inclusion of private shareholders into Citic Group’s assets the president “was asserting his power and intention to drive “will [also] at least improve its transparency”19. The report economic change, rather than settle for a speed limit imposed noted many large SOEs including China Mobile and Sinopec by consensus. [President] Xi’s program set a hard date of 2020 have listed in Hong Kong and New York over the past two for completing a broad slate of reforms.” 15 decades as part of government-designed [SOE] restructuring.19 The first important element in the Decisions was a “revised By late August 2014, Mr. Rosen’s report notes, the State mission statement for government” with instructions for focus Asset Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) on eight core objectives: in Beijing was “broadening implementation of governance reforms at central SOEs, and more than 20 provinces had • Maintain macroeconomic stability published SOE reform plans that involved listing or selling off • Strengthen and improve public services assets in up to 70 percent of provincial SOEs by 2017” 15. • Safeguard fair competition On issues directly and specifically relating to foreign • Strengthen oversight of the market investors in China, however, it is noteworthy that the Decisions • Maintain market order is still unclear. While President Xi’s administration is proposing • Promote sustainable development to permit changes to SOE ownership structures, it is not clear if • Promote common prosperity foreign investors, with US$ 1.35 trillion in operations in China, • Intervene in situations where market failure occurs15 are allowed to buy out and restructure SOEs in the form of joint ventures. In addition, while the Decisions promises due process In 2014, President Xi Jinping and his administration then and fair competition policy to private Chinese firms with followed through with bold reform measures in several aspects regards to operating against SOEs, it is not clear if “private” also of the Chinese economy, confirming, in Mr. Rosen’s opinion, means “foreign private” firms15. that “the Decisions was a starting point, not an empty text.”15 The US-China Business Council, in its latestEconomic In June 2014, Communist Party leaders approved a top-lev- Reform Scorecard, declares that “while China’s economic el national plan for deepening fiscal and tax reforms; specify- reform plans have the potential to promote reform in ways ing reform priorities and tasks; and, boldly setting an interim that address market access barriers and operational challenges deadline of 2016 for “basically” finishing major tasks. Finance of concern to foreign companies, these reforms have had only Minister Lou Jiwei elaborated on specific implementation - em- a limited impact to date. “ The Scorecard goes further to state phasizing measures to reform budget management and improve that its main “areas to monitor for progress include revisions the taxation system.15 Although Mr. Rosen stipulates that fur- to China’s foreign investment laws, future reductions in the ther clarification is still required, the Decisions also touched SFTZ negative list, and stronger efforts to ease administrative on reform of China’s powerfully entrenched State-Owned approval burdens that impact foreign companies.”1 Enterprises (SOEs). These reform goals include “dilution of Newsweek notes that it is precisely these SOEs, the state shareholding through the introduction of private share- state-dominated sectors of the economy—banking, energy, holders; extracting more profit from SOEs to finance public telecommunications, steel and autos, among others, which have expenditures; specifying which industries legitimately require greatly benefited under the current economic model, and which, state control; and making clear that when the state remains a and in many instances, may “fiercely resist meaningful change”2. non-controlling shareholder in a competitive industry, normal A year later, after the recent Fourth Plenum, Mr. Rosen market competition should apply.” 15 stresses the urgency of the need for reforms to continue, Among SOE reform efforts to date, Mr. Rosen’s report ob- declaring in his report that “The most promising early sign of serves that President Xi’s team has “successfully gone after re- reform would be the release of a negative list explaining which calcitrant management at many of the most powerful SOEs, industries are meant to be protected from competition” 15.

24 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

• •维持宏观经济稳定 然而，值得注意的是，对于与外国在华投资者直接 • •加强和提高公共服务业 相关的问题，《决定》并没有作出具体说明。虽然习近 • •保证公平竞争 平主席及其执政团队提出改组国有企业的所有制结构， • •加强市场监管 但是，对于在华投资总额达到1.35万亿美元的外国投资 • •维持市场秩序 者，中国政府是否允许他们以合资形式参与收购和重组 • •促进可持续发展 国有企业，目前我们尚不清楚。此外，虽然《决定》承 • •促进共同富裕 诺以程序合法和公平竞争原则，鼓励私营企业参与国有 • •在市场作用失效时作出干预15 企业改革，但是我们也无法确定此处的“私营”企业是 否也包括“外国私营”企业。15 2014年，习近平主席及其执政团队继续推进经济改 革，在多个领域采取了更大胆的改革措施。在荣大聂看 美中贸易全国委员会在最新一期《经济改革计分 来，这些做法证明了“《决定》并非一纸空文，而是中 卡》中宣称，“虽然中国的经济改革方案有可能推动改革 国改革的起点。”15 进程，帮助解决外资企业所关注的市场进入障碍和经营挑 战问题，但是到目前为止，这些改革措施的效果仍然非常 2014年6月，中共中央政治局审议通过了一份国家级 有限”。该报告进一步指出“中国急需改进的主要领域， 重要文件，旨在深化财税体制改革。文件明确指出改革的 包括修订中国的涉及外国投资的法律法规，未来缩减上海 重点工作和具体任务，并设定了相当大胆的中期计划，预 自由贸易试验区的负面清单，采取更有力的措施改革行政 计到2016年基本完成重点工作。财政部部长楼继伟对媒体 审批制度，以缓解外资企业的行政审批负担。”1 详述了财税改革的执行措施，其中有两个重点：一是改革 预算的管理；二是完善税收制度15。尽管荣大聂认为，这 《新闻周刊》指出，目前的经济发展模式里获益最 些改革措施还需要政府做出更详细的解释。但是，《决 大的，正是国有企业，也就是国家控制的经济行业，例 定》已提出相关措施，改革中国根深蒂固、势力强大的国 如银行、能源、电信、钢铁和汽车等。在很多时候，国 有企业。国有企业的改革目标包括“国有资本投资项目允 有企业可能会“强烈抵制有意义的改革。”2 许非国有资本参股；国有资本加大对公共支出的投入；明 确国家资本必须占主导地位的行业；在竞争性行业，国有 一年之后，中国共产党召开十八大四中全会。在其 资本逐步放弃控股地位，引入正常的市场竞争等。”15 报告中，荣大聂强调，中国在四中全会之后还要继续改 革，而且刻不容缓。他说，“最早的改革信号，是负面 到目前为止，中国政府为国有企业改革付出了很 清单的出台，明确了哪些行业不开放竞争，这也是最能 多努力。荣大聂的报告指出，习近平主席带领其改革团 体现政府改革决心的信号。”15 队，对“大型国有企业僵化的管理体制进行改革，提高 中央企业向国家分红比例，减少国企高管薪酬，通过实 2014年11月4日，中国政府就《外商投资产业指导 行审计调查腐败问题和特殊利益交易，这些措施已经取 目录》修订稿向社会公开征求意见。此次修订稿大幅度 得了初步成功。”15 缩减外商投资的限制类目录，从79条缩减至35条，并进 一步放开外商投资的股比限制，“合资、合作”条目数 2014年6月，香港上市公司中信泰富的股东批准公 从43条缩减至11条，“中方控股”条目数从44条缩减至 司以360亿美元收购国有母公司中信集团的主要业务平台 32条。此次修改稿取消了钢铁、乙烯、炼油、造纸、煤 资产，包括中信证券和中信银行的股权。《中国经济评 化工设备、汽车电子、起重机械、输变电设备、名优白 论》发表报道称赞此次交易为“一次里程碑式的交易， 酒、支线铁路、地铁、部分药品及一般制造业等领域的 让中国国有企业第一次按照市场原则运营，在习近平—­ 外商投资限制。值得一提的是，这些取消了外资限制的 李克强执政时代，这次交易可能成为中国国有企业的改 行业都存在产能过剩问题。11 革蓝本，私人股东参与中信集团资产也[至少]能够增强 透明度。”19该报道指出，在过去二十多年里，中国政 此次修改稿也取消了对电子商务、财务公司、保险 府对国有企业进行改革重组，有很多大型国有企业已经 经纪公司、连锁店、土地成片开发、进出口商品检验等 在香港和纽约上市，例如中国移动、中国石化等。19 领域的外商投资限制。此次修订复制了中国（上海）自 由贸易试验区的部分试点经验，一些投资项目的放开程 根据荣大聂的报告，2014年8月底，国务院国有资 度甚至超过上海自贸区的“负面清单”。11 产监督管理委员会（SASAC）“在所监管的中央企业进 一步深化改革，超过20个省市公布了地方国有企业改革 然而，改革议程的核心任务，总体而言还是放开金 方案，有省份提出，到2017年，全省70%的国有企业通 融市场，尤其是人民币利率自由化。2013年，中国固定 过上市或出售资产的方式发展混合所有制。”15 资产投资（对厂房、设备和基础设施的投资）在国内生

25 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

On November 4, 2014, the Chinese government asked be set up by early 2015. Setting up national deposit insurance, for suggestions from the public about the revised draft of Zhang says, “would pave the way for small and medium-sized the Catalogue for the Guidance of Industries for Foreign banks to fall into bankruptcy without triggering widespread Investment. The draft substantially cuts restrictive items from panic or runs on the remaining banks.” Newsweek notes that 79 to 35, further lifting the restriction of foreign investment China’s Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan has said shares, cutting restrictions of “joint-venture/ cooperation” items deposit rates would therefore be set free “within two years.”2 from 43 to 11, and lifting items which had to be “controlled by Chinese parties” items from 44 to 32. The draft removes When The Going Gets Tough restrictions for foreign investments on iron and steel, ethane, oil refining, papermaking, coal chemical equipment, automotive It is patently obvious that going ahead with the reform electronics, hoisting machinery, electric transmission and program is bound to inflict pain in some very powerfully en- transformation equipment, brand liquor, feeder railway, trenched interests in the Chinese economy, so all China watch- subway, some pharmaceutical products and other general ers’ eyes fall inevitably on the man in the driving seat. manufacturing industries. Worth mentioning here is that these Since assuming the post of general secretary of the industries with removal of foreign investment restrictions have Communist Party in November 2012, Newsweek observes overcapacities. 11 that President “Xi Jinping has launched a tougher than The draft also removes restrictions for foreign investment expected crackdown on corruption, which has included an on e-commerce, financing companies, insurance brokers, fran- investigation of the family of a fellow member of the Politburo chises, land development, and import and export commodity Standing Committee, China’s highest ruling body. He is largely inspection. The draft drew on the experience of some pilot prac- surrounded by reform-minded advisers and has given no sign tices in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (SFTZ), with some lists that he will retreat from his agenda. He has until 2020 to get more open to foreign investment than the “Negative List” of what he wants done, and the government is moving on key areas the SFTZ.11 like financial reform and a host of other issues, such as allowing Still, the core of the reform agenda is financial liberalization private companies to move into sectors now dominated by in general and interest rate liberalization in particular. Fixed-as- state-owned firms.” 2 set investment in 2013 (investment in plants, equipment and Part of this market transition is the perceived uneven en- infrastructure) in China was 45 percent of GDP, while house- forcement of China’s six year old anti-monopoly law. hold consumption was only 36 percent of GDP. A Newsweek According to Businessweek, a 2014 report by the U.S.-China media report indicates that it is a “critical part of the reform Business Council shows that 86 percent of member companies process for Beijing is essentially flipping those numbers” with are “concerned about Beijing’s anti-monopoly enforcement market forces, not the government, dictating where resources activity”, with 30 percent “fearing it will be used against them”. should go in China’s economy and market forces, not the gov- The report said that China has stepped up investigations into ernment, allocating credit.2 the auto industry and conducted “dawn raids” at foreign IT Newsweek notes that “the subsidized system has led to companies16. Also according to Businessweek, a separate 2014 overcapacity across the manufacturing spectrum in China’s survey by Beijing’s American Chamber of Commerce in China economy. That in turn increases deflationary pressure, as too found that 60 percent of respondents “believe foreign business few companies have the pricing power to increase profits. is less welcome in China than before”, up from 41 percent late Banks tend to lend money almost unthinkingly to favored last year. Nearly half of those surveyed said they have been local employers—often state-owned themselves, usually big targeted in pricing or anticorruption campaigns16. employers in any case, with close ties to local party officials. Since The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the U.S. China Business local party officials were usually evaluated by the growth in jobs Council, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China created in their own districts, all the incentives were aligned in and the American Chamber of Commerce in China all lodged one direction: more. More investment, more factories, more complaints within a few weeks of each other in September jobs—and more debt.” 2 201417. According to Newsweek, “to its credit”, President Xi’s new In August 2014, Chinese regulators had levied fines of government has already started to cool bank lending. Before US$200 million on 10 Japanese auto-part makers for alleged interest rates can be completely liberalized, however, a deposit price manipulation. Audi AG, BMW AG and Mercedes-Benz insurance system needs to be set up. Newsweek cites Zhang parent Daimler AG also suffered similar pricing probes. Both Ming, a senior research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Microsoft Corp and Qualcomm Inc. were investigated for Sciences in Beijing, who quotes officials from the People’s Bank potential monopolistic activity. BMW, Audi and Daimler of China and says that a national deposit insurance company will responded to the investigations by cutting prices. Both Qual-

26 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

产总值的比重达到45%，而家庭消费只占国内生产总值 根据《商业周刊》的报道，美中贸易全国委员 的36%。《新闻周刊》的一篇报道指出，“中国改革进 会2014年发布的一份报告显示，有86%的受访会员企 程最关键的一环，就是把这两个数字的位置换过来。” 业对“中国政府的反垄断法执法行动表示担忧”，有 要做到这一点，必须让市场的力量，而不是政府，来决 30%“担心政府借反垄断法针对外资企业”。该报告 定资源在中国经济里的走向；必须让市场的力量，而不 称，中国已经加紧对汽车行业进行反垄断调查，并且对 是政府，来配置信贷。2 外资信息技术企业采取“突击检查”16。《商业周刊》 还报道了中国美国商会于2014年进行的一项调查，其结 另外，《新闻周刊》认为，“中国的补贴制度引发 果显示，有60%的受访者认为，“与过去相比，外资企 了整个制造业的产能过剩问题，从而增加了通货紧缩的 业在中国的受欢迎程度有所下降”，一年前这一比例为 压力，因为几乎没有几家公司有足够的议价能力来提升 41%。将近一半的受访者认为中国专门将外资公司列为 利润。银行则往往轻率地把资金借给他们偏爱的地方雇 价格操纵或反腐败的打击对象。16 主——­ 通常是国有企业。国有企业往往拥有大量雇佣需 求，而且与当地政府官员有密切联系。在地方政府官员 2014年9月，美国商会、美中贸易全国委员会、中 的升迁考核中，一个重要组成部分就是在管辖区域创造 国欧盟商会和中国美国商会在接连几个星期内对中国的 的就业增长率，所以对当地官员来说，各方面激励都指 反垄断调查提出投诉。17 向同一个方向：越多越好。更多投资，更多工厂，更多 就业机会——­ 还有更多债务。”2 2014年8月，以涉嫌操纵价格为由，中国监管机 构对10家日本汽车配件制造商处以总额2亿美元的罚 《新闻周刊》的报道称，“值得赞扬的是，习近平 款。同样接受了类似的价格操纵调查还有奥迪股份公司 主席组建的新一届政府已经开始为银行放贷降温。”但 (Audi AG)、宝马汽车(BMW AG)和梅赛德斯-奔驰(Mer- 是，在人民币利率完全自由化之前，必须要建立起一个 cedes-Benz)母公司戴姆勒股份公司(DaimlerAG)。微软 存款保险系统。《新闻周刊》文章援引中国社会科学院 (Microsoft Corp.)和高通公司(Qualcomm Inc.)也因涉嫌垄 经济学家张明的说法。据他介绍，中国人民银行的有关 断行为正接受调查。宝马、奥迪和戴姆勒通过降价来应 负责人向他透露，中国将在2015年年初成立一家全国性 对反垄断调查。高通公司和微软也表示，公司始终遵守 存款保险公司。张明认为，建立全国性存款保险机制， 中国的相关法律法规，一直积极配合政府的调查。17 意味着“未来中小型银行可以申请破产，而且不会导致 其他银行爆发恐慌或高管外逃”。《新闻周刊》称，中 2014年9月，由中国商务部主办的中国国际投资贸 国中央银行行长周小川曾经表示，存款利率预计在未来 易洽谈会在厦门举行。在与外资企业高管见面的时候， 两年内放开。2 国务院副总理汪洋表示，中国实施反垄断法调查，并不 是打击外资跨国企业。汪洋说，截止至2014年9月，中 改革之路并非坦途 国国家发展与改革委员会（NDRC）执行的反垄断调查 所涉及的企业共有335家，其中外资企业只有33家。而 如果继续进行改革，就必定会刺痛中国部分极其强 且，汪洋说，对国有企业的罚款金额并不比外国公司的 大的既得利益者，这是显而易见的。因此，所有中国问 处罚低。他还补充说，如果说有所差别的话，中国对中 题专家的目光必然会集中到掌舵人习近平身上。 国企业的调查只会比对外国竞争者更为严格。据他解 释，加强反垄断法调查，“体现了中国政府正在转变职 《新闻周刊》的报道指出，自从2012年11月就任中 能，加强对企业和市场监管，而不是仅仅审批企业申 国共产党中央总书记以来，习近平主席“发动的反腐行 请，对企业的经营活动不作监管”14。 动，比外界预料的更加强硬。他的反腐行动甚至深入中 国的最高权力机关——­ 中共中央政治局常务委员会，对 在同一个月内，中国的监管机构对汪洋副总理的 其中一名常务委员及其家属进行调查。他身边的大部分 说法作出响应，并反驳了外国商业团体关于中国利用反 智囊都具有改革思维，目前没有任何迹象显示他会在反 垄断法打击外国企业的说法。根据《华尔街日报》的报 腐问题上有所放松。他必须在2020年实现改革的目标， 道，中国三个有权力对各行业发起反垄断和价格操纵调 现在政府已经在一些重要领域进行改革，包括金融市场 查的国家机关，国家发展与改革委员会、中国商务部、 改革等一系列问题，例如允许私营企业进入国有企业控 国家工商总局共同举行了一次新闻吹风会，出席吹风会 制的行业等”2。 的都是高级别官员——­ 这种情况是相当少见的。来自国 家发改委的官员许昆林在会上说，中国的反垄断执法对 中国《反垄断法》已经实施了六年之久。但外资企 国内外企业都一视同仁，并重申中国并没有专门针对外 业认为，在执行反垄断法时，中国政府并没有公平对待 国企业。17 外资企业。这也是中国市场转型需要解决的问题。

27 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

comm and Microsoft said that their firms are abiding by laws in the Third Plenum in 2013 and recognizing that in order to China and are cooperating with authorities. 17 make these reforms work, it is vital for China to have strong In September 2014, at a meeting with foreign executives at regulatory institutions, the Fourth Plenum of the CCP’s 18th the China International Fair for Investment and Trade (CIFIT) Party Congress in October 2014, passed the Decisions on Major in Xiamen, an annual event organized by China’s Ministry of Issues about Promoting the Rule of Law in a Comprehensive Commerce, Vice Premier Wang Yang declared that China is Way , laying down the framework for a series of regulations not targeting foreign multinationals in the enforcement of its about the development of a market economy, including power anti-monopoly law. Mr. Wang said that of 335 pricing investi- list, setting restrictions on rent-seeking, protecting property gations conducted by the National Development and Reform rights, opposing monopolization and stimulating innovation. Commission (NDRC) as of September 2014, only 33 affected Chinese media reported that all these regulations aim to draw foreign companies. Moreover, fines imposed on state-owned a line between the government and the market, and focus on enterprises were not less than those levied on foreign compa- building a legalized, regulatory economy. These regulations will, nies, Mr. Wang said. He added that, if anything, China will be the report said, “no doubt play an active role in keeping a fair tougher on Chinese companies than on their foreign competi- competitive environment, improving economic effectiveness. tors. He explained that the intensified enforcement of the an- The dividends brought about by these regulations will help ti-monopoly law “reflected China’s transition to ongoing super- greatly China’s economic transformation and upgrading.” 9 vision of companies and markets, rather than simply approving In an October 2014 editorial released after the Fourth companies’ plans and then failing to monitor their activities.” 14 Plenum (whose main topic of discussion was implementing a Also in September 2014, Chinese regulators echoed Vice stronger rule of law), People’s Daily, the de facto broadcaster of Premier Wang’s comments and denied allegations made by for- political agendas from the perspective of the Communist Party eign business groups that China is using its anti-monopoly law of China, defined the “rule of law” as “governance according to to unfairly target foreign companies. In a rare joint press brief- the Constitution. To respect the Constitution and implement ing, according to the Wall Street Journal, Xu Kunlin, an official it in letter and spirit is to lay the foundation of the socialist rule at the National Development Reform Commission accompa- of law with Chinese characteristics.”4 nied by senior officials of the Ministry of Commerce and the That same month, various online Chinese netizens and State Administration for Industry and Commerce, three of the academics took to the interwebs to express their opinion about main entities that have been spearheading anti-monopoly and the rule of law in China, as aggregated by China Daily:13 pricing investigations of the commercial sector in China, said that China treats foreign and domestic companies fairly and re- (The following are quoted verbatim from China Daily, October iterated that China does not specifically foreign companies for 21, 2014) anomalies probes. 17 The same report speculates that Chinese regulators may be “To prevent the authorities from abusing the law, it is trying to “curry favor” with the general population by tackling necessary to promote transparency in governance and high consumer prices in China. Critics claim that Chinese reg- allow ordinary citizens to supervise power. Sunshine is ulators have used “questionable tactics”, the Wall Street Journal the best cure for corruption and an indispensable guar- says, such as advising companies under investigation not to seek antee of the rule of law.” legal representation, “to control product pricing in industries fawan.com, Oct 15 ranging from dairy to auto parts.” Mr. Xu countered by declar- ing that those companies have been allowed to bring their own “Much needs to be done to establish the rule of law in a legal counsel to meetings. Ren Airong, a director of antimonop- society that had long been under the rule of man. Offi- oly at the State Administration for Industry and Commerce, cials can abuse their power, while citizens dare not chal- added that during the Microsoft investigation, regulators were lenge their illegal behavior. Rooting the spirit of the rule frequently outnumbered by the software company’s lawyers.17 of law in people’s hearts will be a longer process than According to the Wall Street Journal, Chinese companies drafting laws on paper.” haven’t been spared the intensified scrutiny. Last September, Wang Yukai, professor at the Chinese Academy of Gover- regulators fined three Chinese cement companies a combined nance, yicai.com, Oct 15 US$18.6 million for price fixing.17 “Various levels of people’s congresses sometimes Emphasizing The Rule of Law ‘entrust’ their legislative power to government agencies. This has resulted in a number of unjust laws that protect Continuing the reform platform boldly introduced during the agencies’ interests at the cost of people’s rights. To

28 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

据同一篇报道猜测，中国的监管部门可能试图通过 法行为。与起草法律文件相比，要根除人们心 打击中国过高的消费品价格来讨好中国普通老百姓。据 中的的人治精神将会是更加漫长的过程。” 《华尔街日报》报道，有评论称中国的监管部门为了“ -中国国家行政学院教授汪玉凯，第一财经 控制从乳制品到汽车零部件等各行各业的产品定价”而 （yicai.com)，10月15日 使用了“不正当的手段”，比如建议接受调查的企业不 要聘请律师。对此，许昆林回应说，企业是可以带自己 “各级人大有时候把他们的立法权‘托付’给 的律师参加会议的。国家工商总局反垄断局主任爱荣在 政府部门。这就导致产生一些不公正的法律， 微软调查中补充到：软件公司自带的律师数量经常比监 以牺牲人民的权利为代价，保护这些部门的利 管方出席人员数量还多。17 益。要促进依法治国，首先必须改变这种扭曲 的做法。一双手既握着立法权又握着执法权， 《华尔街日报》指出，中国企业也逃不过政府日益 这种荒谬的情况必须终止。” 严格的监督。去年9月，中国监管部门对三家存在价格 -中国人民大学法学院教授刘俊海，经济观察 垄断行为的中国水泥企业作出处罚，罚款总额达到1860 网，10月20日 万美元17。 “如果公民财产得不到保护，促进依法治国的 加强依法治国 努力可能会失败。这是我们见证了无数次暴力 强拆住房之后学到的教训。国家必须建立完整 在2013年的三中全会上，中国的执政者提出了大 的物权法体系，普通人的权利受到保护，才会 胆的改革方案。改革必须要继续推进，而且他们也认识 真正支持法治。” 到，这些改革要取得成功，中国必须要有强大的监管机 -和讯网（hexun.com), 10月20日 构。所以，在2014年10月，中国共产党第十八届四中 全会通过了《关于全面推进依法治国若干重大问题的决 “习近平主席强调遵守宪法，但是中国既没有 定》，并以此为框架，出台了一系列促进市场经济发展 宪法法院，又没有宪法审查制度。我们希望四 的规定，包括权力清单、限制寻租、保护产权、加强监 中全会能够发挥创新，讨论建立宪法审查制度 管、反对垄断、激励创新。据中国媒体报道，这些规定 的可能性，这样才是真正尊重宪法，这是依法 旨在厘清政府与市场边界，着力打造法治经济。该报道 治国的前提条件。” 说，这些规定“无疑将对维护公平竞争环境、提高经济 中国政法大学法学院教授焦宏昌，新京报 13 运行效率产生积极意义，其所释放出的巨大法治红利， 网，10月17日 也将助推中国经济转型升级”9。 2014年12月，《中国日报》发表了一篇题名为“ 在十八届四中全会（讨论的主题是加强法治）闭幕 宪法日的重要意义”的特别社论。文章指出，“政府公 之后，专门宣传中国共产党政治议程的官方媒体《人民 职人员普遍表现出对宪法的无知和漠视，所以有必要让 日报》发表社论，把“依法治国”定义为“依宪治国； 所有政府机关工作人员在就职时向国家的根本大法宣 尊重宪法，履行宪法的条文和宪法的精神，是中国特色 誓。”文章还引用了美国法学家哈罗德 • 伯尔曼（Harold 4 社会主义法治体系的根基。” J. Berman）的话，“法律必须被信仰，否则它将形同虚 设”。然后文章指出，“这正是中国的问题所在”3。 在同一个月，很多中国普通网友和学者通过互联网 表达了对中国法治的看法。《中国日报》把网上的意见 整理如下：13 国企改革：步履维艰

（以下内容全部引自中国日报网站2014年10月21日 2015年9月，中国发布关于国有企业改革的指导意 的网页） 见，提出发展国有企业“混合所有制”，努力提高国有 企业管理水平。根据新华网报道，中国将会“完善现代 “要防止政府滥用法律，必须提高政府行为的 企业制度和国有资产管理制度，发展混合所有制经济， 透明度，并接受普通网友的监督。阳光是最好 防止国有资产流失” 35。 的防腐剂，阳光也是法治的重要保证。” -法制晚报（fawan.com），10月15日 新出台的国有企业改革意见目的在于处理长期以 来亟待解决的结构转型问题。这份改革计划要求建立新 “在经历了漫长的人治之后，中国要建立法治 的国有资产管理企业。中国财政部长期致力于提高国有 社会，还需要付出很多努力。在人治之下，官 企业分红上缴国库的比例。这份以市场为导向的改革方 员可以滥用权力，而人们却不敢质疑他们的违 案，正是财政部大力推动的结果。

29 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

promote the rule of law, such distorted practices must vested interests). Rather than remain hands-off, it wants the change first, and the absurdity of the same pair of hands new asset-management firms to get their hands dirty by forc- holding both legislative power and administrative ing consolidation of the biggest SOEs into gargantuan national power must end.” champions. And it seeks to continue supervising many of the Liu Junhai, professor of law at Renmin University of Chi- mega-SOEs created by such mergers. 37 na, The Economic Observer, Oct 20 While China’s leaders have ruled out wholesale privatiza- tion, the new plan also calls for “mixed ownership”, with sales “Efforts to promote the rule of law might fail without of minority stakes and the listing of shares seeming to be on the the protection of citizens’ property. We learn that lesson horizon. Such moves could inject a dose of market discipline, from numerous violent demolitions of residents’ houses. according to The Economist, as an influx of fresh outside inves- A complete system of property rights law must be estab- tors will push for greater transparency and better corporate gov- lished. Then the ordinary people, finding their rights pro- ernance at SOEs. 37 tected, will support the rule of law from the heart.” However, there is a caveat: while the reform plan advocates hexun.com, Oct 20 “mixed ownership”, it also vows to “prevent the loss of state as- sets”. This suggests that a chunk of the minority stakes in SOEs “President Xi Jinping emphasized obedience to the will be sold to other state firms, rather than just to private in- Constitution. But China has neither a constitutional vestors. The plan also says “leadership by the party” will be court nor a constitutional review system. We expect the strengthened at state enterprises, ensuring that the Communist Fourth Plenum to be innovative and to discuss the pos- Party will still be largely influential in running these enterprises sibility of such a system so that the Constitution will be and, The Economist notes, putting question to the idea that out- truly respected. This is a prerequisite to the rule of law.” side investors will even have a voice. 37 Jiao Hongchang, professor of law at China University of The guidance was jointly issued by the Communist Party’s Political Science and Law, Beijing News, Oct 17 13 Central Committee and the State Council, China’s cabinet, Xinhua said in its official Weibo microblog. No further details In December 2014, China Daily published a special edi- were given. 35 torial entitled “Constitution Day Matters” in which it points “In the process of deepening reforms of state-owned enter- out that “given the prevalent ignorance of and disregard for the prises, the leadership of the party can only be strengthened, not Constitution public officials have displayed, it is necessary to weakened,” said Zhang Yi, who runs the State-Owned Assets have all State functionaries take an oath to the fundamental Supervision and Administration Commission of the ruling law.” It also went on to quote the American legal scholar Harold State Council, in a statement. J. Berman, who said “The law must be believed in, or it will exist The step comes nearly two years after President Xi Jinping in name only,” before going on to observe that “that is precisely called for market forces to play a decisive role in the better allo- where [China’s] problem lies.”3 cation of resources in the world’s second-largest economy. The released master plan was a confusing mix of conservative and SOE Reform: Tough Nut to Crack liberal elements. Analysts say the plan reflected political wran- gling by rival factions with sharply different views of how SOE In September 2015, China issued guidance on reforming reform should proceed. 34 state-owned enterprises (SOEs), including the introduction of “Non-public investment entities can participate in SOE “mixed ownership” of state firms and efforts to improve their restructurings, listings, capital raisings and enterprise manage- corporate governance. According to Xinhua, China “will mod- ment through equity stake purchases, share subscriptions, con- ernize SOEs, enhance state assets management, promote mixed vertible bonds, equity swaps and other methods,” said the State ownership and prevent the erosion of state assets.” 35 Council. 35 The new SOE guidelines appear to be aimed at much-need- Among the competing factions, liberals generally favor an ed long term structural change. The new plan calls for the cre- emphasis on privatization, whereas conservatives want to con- ation of new state asset-management companies. The Ministry solidate party control over SOEs and merge them into even of Finance, keen to raise the dividends paid to the treasury by larger groups. SOEs, is pushing for this market-minded approach. The cabinet said China would pursue mixed ownership in Unfortunately, as The Economist observes, resistance is com- industries including electricity, oil and gas, telecommunications, ing from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administra- military equipment and civil aviation. It also said SOEs should in- tion Commission (SASAC), which currently micromanages troduce foreign investment through joint ventures, restructuring, the biggest Chinese SOEs (and probably operates out of its own mergers and acquisitions and offshore financing.38

30 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

遗憾的是，正如《经济学人》所言，国企改革将 国务院表示，中国将在电力、石油和天然气、电 会面临来自国务院国有资产监督管理委员会（国资委） 信、军用设备和民航等行业发展混合所有制。同时也表 的阻力。目前，中国最大几家国有企业的经营管理，事 示，国有企业应通过合资、重组、兼并和境外融资等方 无巨细都由国资委负责（可能也是出于其既得利益的考 式引进外国投资。38 虑）。国资委不但没有放手，反而希望新的国有资产管 理企业亲自动手，将最大的几家国有企业合并成为硕大 国有企业改革要取得显著成效，很大程度上取决于 无比的国家企业集团。国资委还试图继续监管这些兼并 改革方案的具体执行情况。国有企业高管及其政府庇护者 而成的超级国有企业。37 拥有强大的政治影响力，他们很可能抗拒执行放宽政府控 制的各项措施。这份改革方案也明确提出，在关系国家安 虽然中国领导层已不再考虑全面私有化，新出台的 全的重要行业和自然资源领域，包括水、粮食、森林、石 改革方案仍然提出发展“混合所有制经济”。那么，国有 油和天然气等，国有资本要保持“控股地位”。38 企业少数股权的出售和股票上市也指日可待了。据《经济 学人》报道，这些举措可以为国有企业注入一些市场的约 即使广泛进行部分私有化，专家也怀疑是否能从根 束，因为外部投资者大量涌入，将会促使国有企业提高透 本上成功改组国有企业。 明度，改善企业管理。37 有些分析人士警告说，只要最终控制权掌握在党的 但是必须提醒一点：虽然改革方案提出发展“混合 手中，那么国有企业将永远不会是纯粹追求利润的经济 所有制”，但是它也同时要求“防止国有资产流失”。 主体。对党的领导层来说，由于国有企业结构内部存在 这就意味着国有企业大部分的少数股权将会卖给其他国 强大的既得利益集团，要处理好国企改革从来都不是容 有企业，而不是流向私人投资者。该方案也明确表示， 易的事情。所以，他们推出的并不是激进的改革方案， 国有企业将会加强“党的领导”，确保共产党在国有企 而是一个温和的五年改革路线图。39 业经营管理中起到核心作用。《经济学人》对此表示疑 虑，认为如果当真如此的话，外部投资者就不会有发言 据新华网报道，“该方案提出，中国要在2020年实 权。37 现所有重要领域和关键环节的改革目标，形成更加符合中 国社会主义市场经济发展需要的经济体制。”新华网响应 新华网在其新浪官方微博上透露，这份改革意见由 了中国中央银行允许人民币贬值时的用词，表示“国有企 中共中央和国务院（中国的内阁）共同发布，但是并未 业制度应该会更加现代化和市场化。”36 提供更多细节。35 新华网报道称，新出台的改革意见要求政府鼓励 国务院国有资产监督管理委员会主任张毅在一次讲 国有企业最终实现“上市”，虽然“并没有规定具体的 话中表示，“在国有企业深化改革过程中，必须加强党 时间表”。此外，“国有企业将允许试点实行员工持 的领导，党的建设不能被削弱。” 股。”《美国外交官亚太时事杂志》表示，这些规定听 起来有利于国有企业进行长期结构改组，也顾及到外国 作为世界第二大经济体，中国经济体量巨大。早在 投资者多年以来的殷切期望。中国政府作出承诺，要通 两年前，习近平主席提出要充分发挥市场在资源配置中的 过实施影响深远的改革方案，创造“更强大、更完善、 决定性作用。两年后，中国政府提出了这份国企改革方 更庞大”的国有企业，具体措施包括改组经营不善的企 案。方案里既有保守派的观点，也有自由派的主张，两类 业，允许部分企业关闭等。但是，这份改革方案在相关 看法混杂其中，令人感到困惑。分析人士认为，这份方案 细节问题上仍然语焉不详36。 充分体现了中国政府高层的政治角力，关于国有企业改革 该如何推进，不同派别之间的观点分歧相当尖锐34。 怀疑论者可能会认为，这份新出台的改革意见只不 过代表了改革的信号，但是中国不一定会落实执行，特 根据国务院的指示，“非国有资本投资主体可通过 别是考虑到改革意见公布的时间是在中国刚刚经历了一 出资入股、收购股权、认购可转债、股权置换等多种方 个动荡的夏天之后，所以怀疑论者更有理由怀疑中国会 式，参与国有企业改制重组或国有控股上市公司增资扩 真正推行改革。《美国外交官亚太时事杂志》则认为， 股以及企业经营管理。” 35 国务院也可能通过发布这份改革意见向投资者传达另一 个信号：中国是真的要进行结构性改革。对于怀疑论者 在相互竞争的派别中，自由派一般喜欢把重点放在 来说，除非他们看到改革的事实，否则他们不会相信这 私有化，而保守派则希望加强党对国有企业的控制，通 份改革意见所承诺的国企改革。我们真诚地希望中国不 过合并使其成为大型企业集团。 再拖延，尽快将国企改革措施落到实处。

31 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

For SOE reform to make significant progress, much will de- strategic mandate for state-owned enterprises, or SOEs, has a pend on specific implementation. SOE executives and their gov- curious history. According to some, it also has a grim outlook if ernment patrons wield significant political clout and are likely substantive changes are not made. to resist efforts to loosen government controls. The guidelines In the mid-to-late1990s, former President “Jiang Zemin and already cautioned that state capital should maintain the “abso- then-Premier Zhu Rongji took a knife to China’s bloated and lute controlling position” in national security sectors, as well as unprofitable state sector, closing thousands of unproductive en- natural resources including water, grain, forests, oil and gas. 38 terprises. That opened up space for private sector firms to flour- Even if partial privatization is widely used, experts question ish, underwriting the growth of the last decade [2000-2010].”24 whether it can succeed in fundamentally reshaping the state sector. Since that time, however, “some of those gains have been re- Some analysts warn that as long as the party maintains ulti- versed, as the government has thrown its weight behind state mate control, SOEs will never act as purely profit-seeking entities. champions. The number of state-owned enterprises as a share of The issue has never been an easy one for the Party leadership to the total has continued to fall, dropping to 5 percent in 2011. pursue, given powerful vested interests in the existing SOE struc- But with SOEs still dominant in the commanding heights of ture. So instead of unveiling something too radical, what they’ve the economy, their share of total output has remained relatively outlined instead is a five-year road map for modest reform.39 buoyant at 26 percent.”24 “The guidelines suggest that by 2020, the goals in all the According to a study performed by “Curtis Milhaupt, a main reform areas should be accomplished, constituting a scholar of comparative corporate law at Columbia Law School, system that is more suitable to the nation’s socialist-market and Li-Wen Lin, a graduate student in sociology at Columbia economy,” Xinhua notes. Echoing some of the language used University […] the network of SOEs in China “Is based on by the country’s Central Bank when it allowed the yuan to ‘vertically integrated groups’ of large state-owned and related depreciate, Xinhua notes that the “SOE system should be more companies. Each group has a ‘central holding company,’ modernized and market-oriented” 36. the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration The new guidelines,Xinhua reports, state that the govern- Commission (SASAC), which is the majority shareholder in ment will encourage SOEs to eventually “go public” though “no a ‘core company.” That company, in turn, owns a majority of specific timetable will be set.” Additionally, “SOEs will also be shares in the state-owned companies that comprise the group, allowed to experiment with selling shares to their employees.” including a finance company that is a source of finance for According to The Diplomat, these provisions hearken positively members.”25 for longer-term structural SOE reform and appear to address Additionally, “the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) struc- recommendations that foreign investors have proffered for a ture exists parallel to the structure noted above. The Organiza- few years now. China promised to create “stronger, better and tion Department of the Party is decisive in choosing top man- larger” SOEs through a far-reaching reform program, which agers of the SOEs, and in turn some managers hold positions includes restructuring those that are performing poorly and al- in government and the CCP The authors emphasize that more lowing some to close, but the reform plan has been vague on than a chain of command from top to bottom is implied by this these details. 36 structure: “These hierarchical structures are embedded in dense Skeptics may read the announcement of the new guidelines, networks –not only of other firms, but also of party and govern- particularly given their timing after China’s summer of ment organs,” and exchange and collaborate on many matters of volatility, as an attempt to signal reform without necessarily production and policy implementation.”25 pursuing it. By issuing these guidelines, The Diplomat observes, Milhaupt and Lin also observe several significant issues the State Council could be sending investors another signal with China’s current model for the administration of SOEs. that it is taking structural reform seriously. For the skeptics, One such issue is that “SOEs are exempt from anti-trust they’ll believe the sort of SOE reforms these guidelines promise enforcement. Also, as the Economist noted in a recent overview, when they see it. We do hope that China will move toward the government ‘enforces rules selectively, to keep private-sector implementation sooner rather than later. rivals in their place’ and foreign firms can be blocked from acquiring local firms.” Tackling China’s State-owned Enterprises: Another is that “Corporate governance is very weak. Share- Background holders have no voice in corporate affairs and can not access the (This section “Tackling China’s State-owned Enterprises” is incor- courts. Lack of transparency means that corporate misgovern- porated from our 2015 White Paper.) ment is easy to hide.”26 Also at the Communist Party Congress, SASAC chief SOEs enjoy a second life Wang Yong told reporters that “The direction of the SOE The Chinese government’s preferential treatment of and (state-owned enterprise) reform should be: SOEs must be more

32 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

中国国有企业：背景 此外，“国企企业管理非常薄弱。股东在企业事务 以下章节摘自《2015中国营商环境白皮书》 方面没有任何话语权，也不能向法院提出申诉。缺乏透 明度意味着企业管理中的行为不端可以很容易被隐藏起 国有企业重获新生 来。”26

国有企业（国企）享受中国政府的优惠待遇，按照 在中国十八大期间，国资委主任王勇在回答记者提 中国政府要求实现既定的战略目标，政府和国企的关系 问时透露，“国有企业改革的方向应该是更加市场化， 来源于复杂微妙的历史。也有些人认为，如果不进行实 不断增加活力和影响力。”26 质性的变革，国有企业前景堪忧。 知名作家、前中国美国商会主席麦健陆（James Mc- 在上个世纪九十年代中期，中国前国家主席“江泽 Gregor）指出，国资委管辖的“117家大型央企”很多都 民和当时的国务院总理朱镕基曾经拿中国臃肿且亏损的 是垄断企业，“经过过去十年的变革和发展，现在中国 国有部门开刀，关闭了几千家无利可图的低效企业，为 共产党对这批中央企业的控制权比政府更大。”27 私营部门企业繁荣创造了空间，也保证了中国经济在过 去十年[2000-2010]的持续增长”24。 麦健陆先生继续解释道：

然而，从那时开始，“由于政府大力支持大型国有 “中央企业最高层领导人由中共中央组织部任 企业，之前取得的一些成果出现倒退。虽然国有企业数量 命，他们的地位比政府官僚更高，尽管后者名 在企业总数量的比重持续下降，到2011年降至5%，但是由 义上应该是央企的监管者。共产党可以通过这 于国有企业仍在经济的制高点占有主导地位，其产出在国 些央企发展中国经济，也可以利用他们巩固政 民经济总产出的比重一直保持在相对较高的26%。”24 治权力。[用麦健陆先生的话来说]这就是当今 中国威权资本主义制度的核心。27” 美国哥伦比亚大学法学院从事公司法比较研究的学 者柯提斯J.米尔霍普和哥伦比亚大学社会学专业研究生 麦健陆先生来华已经二十五年，亲眼见证了中国 林立雯最近共同撰写了一篇研究中国国企的论文。文章 自改革开放以来的巨大变化。他认为，某些官员“看到 指出，中国国有企业体系的基础是“由大型国企和相关 俄罗斯寡头以个人身份接管国有资产—党认为这种做法 企业组成的‘垂直一体化的多个集团’。每个集团都有 就是寡头政治。于是，2003年，共产党成立了国资委 一个‘中央控股公司’，即国务院国有资产监督管理委 （SASAC）[国有资产监督管理委员会]，把国有资产纳 员会（ ），该机构是‘骨干企业’的主要股东。 SASAC 入中央控制之下。到了2006年，中央下发指示，把二十 反过来，骨干企业拥有这一集团中所有国有企业（包括 多个重点工业和技术部门全部变为国有或者由国家控 一家金融公司，该金融公司为集团成员公司提供融资服 股。最后，全球金融危机爆发，中国政府推出6000亿美 务）的多数股份”25。 元经济刺激方案。这些资金流入国有企业—从此央企不 断发展壮大。”27 此外，“上述结构中存在一个明显的中国共产党 组织。中共中央组织部决定国企高管的人选，反过来， 有意思的是，在国有部门越来越壮大之时，很多观 一些国企高管也在政府和党内担任职务。”两位作者 察员—包括上述作者—都预计中国政府会继续开放国内市 强调，在这种结构中，存在着若干条自上而下的指挥 场，以私营企业为基础，促进培育更有活力、可持续发展 链：“这些等级森严的结构包含于复杂的网络之中，网 的经济。“随着私营企业数 量增加，[中国经济]正朝着 络中不仅有其他公司，还有党组织和政府机构，这些公 更加自由的市场经济发展。但是，与之相反的是，中国还 司和组织机构在有关生产和政策执行等诸多事务中互相 在坚持大力扶持国有企业。这种做法令中国国企越来越难 交流，互相合作”25。 以适应全球贸易体系，也对跨国公司造成威胁”27。

米尔霍普和林立雯也就中国目前国企管理模式的重 用麦健陆先生的话来说，“国有企业并未对增加就 要问题做出评述。 业机会或产品创新作出贡献。邓小平先生曾经利用私营部 门帮助中国摆脱困境，现在中国的领导人也无可避免地需 其中一个问题是，“国有企业可以免受反垄断制 要利用私营部门让中国迈向下一个发展阶段。”考虑到这 裁。另外，正如《经济学人》在最近发布的观察报告中 一点的话，中国政府的举动就更加难以理解。除此之外， 指出，政府‘有选择地执法，令私营部门的竞争者受到 这些国有企业似乎不可能在“未来十到二十年内发展成为 控制’，而且外资企业也被挡在门外，无法收购地方企 通用电气那样的大企业，[……]，反而有可能在发展过程 业。” 中毁掉很多企业，扭曲全球市场和商业惯例。”27

33 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

market-oriented and they must keep strengthening their vitality ics of current SOE-related policy claim that “without further and influence.”26 reform of the state sector, China’s growth will stagnate. They According to author and former AmCham China (Beijing) call for equal opportunity for private firms, which provide most chairman James McGregor, the group of “117 huge central of the new jobs in China.”26 SOEs,” of which many are monopolies, “have evolved over the The Chinese government’s oft-repeated call for indigenous past decade so that the party controls these SOEs more than the innovation and the development of key high-tech industries is government does.”27 exceedingly unlikely to be answered successfully by complacent Mr. McGregor explains: SOEs and those entrepreneurs who are the nation’s best hope in achieving a substantive economy based on innovation “are un- The Central Organization Department of the party ap- able to get financing so they often live off loan sharks.”27 Banks points the top leaders and they outrank the bureaucrats in China offer SOEs preferential treatment, often at the expense who are nominally supposed to be the SOEs’ regulators. of private enterprises. The party is also able to use the SOEs for preserving political power as much as for building the economy. Overseas expansion no easy task That’s the heart of [what McGregor terms] the Author- In more global terms, Wall Street Journal commentator itarian Capitalist system in China today.27 Stanley Lubman argues that, “The need to better understand China’s system goes beyond abstract arguments about the fu- Mr. McGregor, who has been in China for 25 years and has ture of the global economy. The continuing expansion of the witnessed the nation’s extensive changes since ‘opening up’, pos- state sector of China’s economy limits the private sector and its that some officials “saw the Russian oligarchs taking over state favors state-owned enterprises (SOEs) over foreign companies assets as private individuals—and the party decided it would be in some domestic markets. As SOEs extend their investments the oligarchy. And so in 2003 they formed the SASAC [State- abroad, nations in which China seeks to invest need to become owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission] more aware of frequent links between state ownership and state to bring the state shares under central control. Then in 2006 control.”25 there was a directive that took about two dozen key industrial China’s increasing support for SOEs at the expense of mar- and technology sectors and made them fully state controlled or ket-based competition in a variety of industries—“China going majority state controlled. Finally, you have the global financial in a direction that the West didn’t think China was going in”27 crisis and the 600-billion-dollar stimulus program. That money after joining the WTO in 2001—is likely to be a source of in- flushed into SOEs—and they were off and running.”27 creasing friction between the P.R.C. and the rest of the world. Curiously, this has all happened as many observers—the au- At the above-mentioned 18th Communist Party Congress, thors included—expected that the Chinese government would “[SASAC leader Wang] and other state-firm bosses emphasized continue to open markets and cultivate a more dynamic and their importance to what they called ‘national economic secu- sustainable economy based on private enterprise. “[The Chinese rity’ in their gathering, laying out plans for further investment economy] was headed toward a more free market economy with and overseas expansion.”26 more private companies. But the country has strongly reversed Historically, Chinese companies that are given licenses to course to building up state-owned enterprise that is increasingly invest abroad have been SOEs or otherwise related to the gov- incompatible with global trade regimes and threatening to mul- ernment. But the government’s intimacy with companies—and tinationals.”27 not only SOEs—which are looking to invest in abroad has been The move is even more curious because, in the words of Mr. a source of considerable suspicion among foreign regulators in McGregor, “SOEs add zero growth—zero job growth, zero in- recent years. Several high-profile acquisitions of foreign compa- novation. The private sector is what Deng [Xiaoping] used to nies by Chinese firms have been halted, blocked or aborted in pull this country out of a hole and they’re going to have to use recent years. the private sector to move it to the next step.” Moreover, while In September 2012, President Obama issued “an executive it is unlikely that these SOEs will become “the new General order prohibiting a Chinese company from owning and oper- Electrics in 10 or 20 years […] they can destroy a lot of com- ating a wind farm near the Naval Weapons Systems Training panies and distort global markets and business practices along Facility in Boardman, Ore [which] is said to be home to a fleet the way.” 27 of unmanned drones and planes specializing in electronic war- According to Reuters, “Chinese reformers and Western gov- fare.” This was the first time in 22 years that a president had pre- ernments say [SOEs’] sheer size and market dominance creates vented a foreign acquisition of a US business.28 a drag on the economy through vast opportunity for corruption The Chinese company in question—machinery giant Sa- and waste, leading to higher costs for consumers,” and that crit- ny—“is controlled by China’s second-richest man, Liang Wen-

34 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

据《路透社》报道，“中国的改革者和西方政府均 参与收购的中国企业是中国机械业巨头三一重 认为，因为拥有庞大的规模和市场优势，给国有企业带 工，“其董事长梁稳根是中国第二首富，并且最近被任 去了贪污腐败和铺张浪费的机会，这必然会拖累经济， 命为中国共产党中央委员会委员”28。 导致消费者付出更高的成本。”对目前国有企业相关政 策提出异议的批评人士指出，“如果不进一步改革国有 在同一天，中国政府感到非常震惊，因为“美国众 部门，中国经济的将停滞不前。在中国，大多数新增就 议员情报委员会提出警告[……]中国政府可能利用华为 业岗位都是私营企业创造的，他们呼吁给私营企业公平 技术有限公司以及其竞争对手中兴通讯公司制造的电子 竞争的机会”26。 设备进行间谍活动。华为是世界第二大路由器和其他电 子通信装置制造商，中兴通讯是世界第五大电子通信装 中国政府反复要求企业推进自主创新，加快发展重 置制造商。”29 点高新技术产业。显然，安于现状的国有企业是绝对不 可能实现这一目标的。而最有可能帮助中国向创新型经 众议员情报委员会的报告称，虽然“华为和中兴都 济转变的私营企业，“由于无法获得融资，只好借高利 不是国有企业，但是公司的管理结构中设有共产党支部 贷以维持经营”27。中国的银行往往以牺牲私营企业利 组织，这是引起担忧的原因之一”，而且“华为受怀疑 益为代价优待国有企业。 的另一个原因与华为创始人任正非有关，他曾经是中国 人民解放军军官。”29 海外扩张绝非易事 《路透社》报道回顾了以往类似事件： 资深中国法律问题专家斯坦利•鲁布曼（Stanley Lub- man）在《华尔街日报》发表评论文章，以全球视角讨论 2005年，中国海外收购遭遇最大的打击。中国 中国经济问题。他认为，“我们需要更好地理解中国的制 国有企业中国海洋石油有限公司（CNOOC，简称 度，这并不仅仅是为了从理论上探讨全球经济的未来。中 中海油）试图以185亿美元的价格收购美国加州 国经济的国有部门持续扩大，令私有部门发展受限，在某 联合石油公司（Unocal）。美国国会以国家利 些国内市场上，国有企业比外资企业更受青睐。随着国有 益为由阻止这桩收购案，最终导致中海油撤回 企业扩大海外投资，中国投资的国家需要更加了解中国的 收购提案。 国家所有制和国家控制之间的密切联系。”25 […]

在多个行业，中国以牺牲市场竞争为代价加大对 2009年，国有企业中国有色矿业集团有限公司 国有企业的扶持—2001年中国加入世界贸易组织之 决定终止以4亿美元收购澳大利亚稀土生产商 后，“中国选择了一条西方意料之外的路”27。这也许 Lynas公司 50.6%股份的交易，Lynas公司拥有世 是导致中国与世界各国的摩擦日益增多的根源。 界上最大的稀土储量。中国有色矿业集团称， 放弃收购的原因是[澳大利亚外商投资审核委员 在上述提及的中共十八大会议上，“[国资委主任 会针对这项交易]提出的条件过于苛刻。 王勇]在和其他中央企业高层代表讨论时强调国企安全 […] 事关国家经济安全，并在会上规划了国企未来的投资和 海外扩张方案。”26 [同样在2009年]澳大利亚财政部长韦恩•斯旺 （Wayne Swan）否决中国五矿集团以17亿美元收 一直以来，能获得海外投资许可的中国企业都是 购OZ矿业公司，要求调整收购方案，将一个位 国有企业或者与与政府相关的企业。政府与企业关系密 于武器实验场禁区的矿山排除在收购计划外30。 切并不局限于国企。近年来，中国企业在海外投资时， 他们与中国政府的密切关系往往引起外国监管部门的 普遍而言，这份美国报告认为，大多数“[海外]投 怀疑，因此中国企业在海外高调收购外资公司时频频受 资率先由中国国有企业发起。而中国政府则根据其工业 挫，收购计划被叫停、受阻，甚至完全失败。 政策和非市场化目标，为中国国企提供补贴和其他不符 合自由市场规律的政策优待”26。 2012年9月，美国总统奥巴马发出“行政命令禁止 一家中国企业拥有和经营一家位于俄勒冈州波特曼海军 正如鲁布曼先生所言，“中国的‘国家资本主义’ 武器系统训练设施附近的风能发电场，因为该训练设施 仍将继续成为华盛顿领导人会‘强硬处理’的问题之 用于测试无人驾驶飞机和电子战飞机。”这是过去22年 一，这也是情理之中。如果投资美国的企业是一家中国 28 来美国总统第一次阻止外国企业收购美国企业。 企业，[美国海外投资委员会]很可能难以查清该企业与

35 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

gen, who has recently been appointed to the Central Commit- tory transparency.”25 tee of China’s Communist Party.”28 The U.S. Chamber of Commerce further notes that “Chi- Around the same date, Chinese authorities were shocked, just na and other countries lavish regulatory favors and generous shocked when the “U.S. House of Representatives’ Intelligence subsidies on their state-owned firms, making it very difficult Committee warned […] that Beijing could use equipment made to compete,” and that “No adequate and effective international by Huawei, the world’s second-largest maker of routers and disciplines now exist to deal with this problem.”31 other telecom gear, as well as rival Chinese manufacturer ZTE, In December 2012, Canadian authorities “approved China’s the fifth largest, for spying”29. biggest ever foreign takeover [a $15.1 billion bid by state- Although “neither Huawei nor ZTE is state-owned,” the controlled CNOOC Ltd for energy company Nexen Inc.] report cited, the presence of a Communist Party cell in the but drew a line in the sand against future buys by state-owned companies’ management structure as part of the reason for enterprises”32. concern” while “suspicions of Huawei are partly tied to its Prime Minister Steven Harper said: “To be blunt, Canadi- founder, Ren Zhengfei, a former People’s Liberation Army ans have not spent years reducing the ownership of sectors of officer.”29 the economy by our own governments, only to see them bought and controlled by foreign governments instead.”32 Reuters recalls that: Reuters notes that “The international community has de- manded greater transparency from China on a number of fronts China suffered the biggest knock to its deal-making for years, wary of its intentions as the country grew to become confidence in 2005, when state-controlled oil firm the second-biggest economy in the world and symbolic of a CNOOC Ltd withdrew an $18.5 billion bid for U.S. shift in global power to emerging nations.”33 oil firm Unocal after the Senate moved to block it on Moreover, “China’s state-secrets laws, massive bureaucracy national interest grounds. and cronyism [which] make it difficult to get key, verifiable information from Chinese companies”. even in cases where the […] largest security concern is financial.33 More pragmatically, Mr. McGregor argues that fast-moving In 2009, the state-owned China Non-Ferrous Metal and adaptable entrepreneurs, not SOEs, present the best hope for Mining (Group) Co dropped a $400 million bid for China’s future overseas investments:—“[The ‘going out’ policy] 50.6 percent of Lynas Corp , owner of the world’s rich- can’t be led by SOEs: They’re not China’s best and brightest.”27 est deposit of rare earth minerals, saying the conditions set by [Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board] What next were too stiff. At this point it appears that the continuing relevance of SOEs in China owes more to political influence and vested in- […] terest than in their ability to successfully compete domestically or even internationally; while the Communist Party’s de-facto [Also in 2009,] Treasurer Wayne Swan forced Chinese control over the enterprises themselves may insulate them from metals group Minmetals to withdraw a $1.7 billion bid significant failures in their domestic market, that same control for OZ Minerals until it revised the deal to exclude a will likely lead to increasing backlash against China’s over- mine situated in a restricted weapons testing area.30 all mandate to ‘go out’ and invest abroad. In other words, the continuing prosperity of SOEs at home due to practices that, More generally, the U.S. report found that for the most once again, “ [are] increasingly incompatible with global trade part “[overseas] investment [is] spearheaded by Chinese state- regimes and threatening to multinationals.”27 owned enterprises that enjoyed government subsidies and other This is just one facet of the overall paradox of reform in con- market-distorting policies that support industrial policy and temporary China: despite a wide-ranging consensus within and non-market goals of the Chinese government”26. without China that substantive political reform is necessary for As Mr. Lubman observes, “China’s ‘state capitalism’ will the long-term relevance of the Communist Party, the short- continue to number among those issues on which leaders in term consequences of that reform—both real and imagined— Washington are likely be ‘hard-edged,’ and rightly so. If an SOE remain too unpalatable for much progress to be made. appears as a possible investor, [the Committee on Foreign In- In light of the overall situation, it would appear that nobody vestment in the United States] will most likely have difficulty in a position of authority has yet been willing to risk halting probing its relations to Chinese government agencies of con- the flow of lucre that many vested interests in Beijing no doubt cern. And the Chinese side will most likely not display satisfac- enjoy as a result of SOEs’ success-by-fiat, even if it would mean

36 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

中国政府部门的关系，而中国方面也可能不会高度透明 在国家政策扶持下，国有企业取得了成功。毫无疑 地披露该企业的信息”25。 问，北京很多既得利益者借此聚敛了大量财富。如今， 越来越多经济数据显示，中国经济已经进入了最困难时 美国商会进一步指出，“中国和其他国家对国有企 期，但是就目前的局势来看，似乎中国当局的掌权者中 业给予太多政策优待和政府补贴，导致其他企业难以与 尚未有人愿意冒险制止这种借国企敛财的行为，即使那 之竞争”，而且“目前国际上并无适当有效的规则处理 样做会帮助国民经济健康发展。 类似问题”。31 实事求是地说，最有可能在海外投资获得成功的企 2012年12月，加拿大政府宣布“批准中国海外最大 业，并不是当局一心扶持成为行业龙头的国有企业，而 宗收购提案[国有企业中国海洋石油有限公司以151亿美 是规模较小、较为独立的民营企业。比起国有企业，民 元收购加拿大能源企业尼克森公司]，但是也对外国国 营企业更能减少外国对其所有权和透明度的担忧。我们 有企业未来收购加拿大企业作出了规定。”32 认为，这些企业最有可能对外国和中国经济作出积极显 著的贡献。 加拿大总理斯蒂芬•哈珀（Steven Harper）表示，“ 坦白地说，加拿大多年来努力减少各经济部门的国 有份额，并不是为了见证它们被外国政府收购和控制 反腐败运动 的。”32 近期发展情况 《路透社》报道指出，“中国已经发展成为世界第 二大经济体，象征着世界重心向发展中国家转移。因此 今年是习近平主席反腐败运动的第四年，一些 多年以来，国际社会一直要求中国在各个领域提高透明 中国观察家可能认为，今年反腐运动的势头已略有放 33 度，并提醒各国对中国的意图保持警惕。” 缓。2012年11月，当时即将卸任的胡锦涛主席曾提醒下 一届中央领导班子，“制度性腐败”可能导致“亡党亡 此外，“中国的国家保密法、庞大的政府机构和人 国”。一年过去，那些悲观的专家也许已经改变了看 员任命，令外界难以从中国企业得到真实可靠的重要信 法，因为习近平政府仍然坚决反腐，2015年中国反腐败 33 息。”即使是只涉及企业财务的信息，也是如此。 运动可谓大事不断。

麦健陆先生提出了更加务实的观点。他认为，行 这场反腐败运动不但要查处被称为“苍蝇”的基层 动迅速、适应力强的企业家是中国未来海外投资的希 腐败官员，而且要取缔被称为“老虎”的高级别腐败官 望，而不是国有企业：“[‘走出去’政策]不能以国有 员，目前已被拘捕的众多高层“老虎”包括：前商务部 企业为主导，因为它们并不是中国最好、最出色的企 部长薄熙来（落马的首批“老虎”之一）；退休将军徐 27 业。” 才厚，曾任中央军事委员会副主席、中央政治局委员， 讽刺的是，他还曾经担任中央军事委员会纪律委员会书 下一步策略 记；周永康，曾任公安部部长、中央政治局常委，负责 监管中国的公安、准军事、情报和法律部门；令计划， 从上述分析看来，国有企业之所以在中国继续保持 在胡锦涛在任国家主席期间，他是中央书记处书记；还 重要地位，更多是因为政治影响力和既得利益，而不是 有前中央军事委员会副主席郭伯雄将军。41，42 因为在国内或国际竞争中脱颖而出。而共产党对国有企 业的实际控制也许可以帮助国企在国内市场免遭重大挫 2015年10月，中国反腐败执法人员开始调查福建省 折，但是同样的控制很可能在国际社会招致更多反感， 省长苏树林。苏树林曾经担任中国石油化工股份有限公司 令中国“走出去”投资海外市场的任务愈加艰难。换言 董事长，后调至中国富裕省份福建省出任省长。2015年11 之，国有企业能够在国内市场持续繁荣，得益于中国政 月11日，中共北京市委副书记吕锡文因涉嫌严重违反党纪 府的扶持，而这一做法却让国企“越来越难以适应全球 被拘捕。在吕锡文被捕前一日，上海市副市长艾宝俊被带 27 贸易体系，也对跨国公司造成威胁” 走调查。至此，中央纪律检查委员会查处副部级以上腐败 官员（即“老虎”）已覆盖内地31个省区市。43 中国目前的改革错综复杂，国企问题只是其中一个 方面：中国国内外已经普遍达成共识，共产党要巩固自 习近平的反腐斗争对象并不局限于政府官员。在 己在中国的长期执政，必须进行重大政治体制改革。但 2013年内，中国共有31名国有企业高管落马，所在行业 是，无论是在现实中还是预想中，中国的政治体制改革 包括石油和电信业，其中10人是因为腐败和违纪，8人 成效不可能立竿见影。 因为经营管理不善。4月，中国最大国企之一的一把手

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an overall healthier national economy and even as an increasing corruption efforts. In 2013, the anti-corruption campaign saw number of economic measures indicate that China may be on the firing of 31 senior SOE executives in sectors including oil the cusp of significant economic hardship. and telecom, with 10 sacked for corruption and discipline Strictly pragmatically, the most likely candidates for success- violations, and another 8 dismissed for poor business ful investment overseas are not the SOEs that authorities seem management. In April, the chairman of one of China’s largest to want to prop up as industry champions, but rather smaller— SOEs was investigated and expelled from the party. And in early and more independent—enterprises which are more likely to July, state media reported on the investigation and expulsion of evade significant concerns about propriety and transparency. In Jiang Jiemin, the former head of China’s State-owned Assets our opinion, these firms are also most likely to make significant Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), the positive contributions to overseas economies and China’s own. main agency responsible for managing China’s SOEs. Zhang Yujun, assistant chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Anti-Corruption Campaign Commission (CSRC), faces suspicions of “serious disciplinary violations” — a term that typically signifies a corruption case, Recent Developments Reuters reported. 45 China watchers may have observed that President Xi Jin- China’s extensive crackdown on government corruption, ping’s anti-corruption campaign, now entering its fourth year, which has already ensnared hundreds of thousands of officials had lost some of its steam. But ever since November 2012, when in the People’s Republic, is now spilling over the country’s bor- outgoing President Hu Jintao told the next generation of Chi- ders. The State Department recently confirmed that China’s nese leaders that “systemic corruption” could lead to the “down- legal authorities had provided a list of 150 corrupt Chinese fall of the Party and the state”, these pessimistic pundits may officials believed to be hiding in the United States, and vowed have had to revise their opinions this past year as President Xi cooperation to help extradite them. 46 Jinping’s administration is still determined to show that 2015 is Wang Qishan, the head of China’s Central Commission for proving to be quite eventful on this front. Discipline Inspection and the country’s anti-corruption czar The campaign, which aims to take down not only low- has been quoted numerous times about the administration’s ranking officials known as “flies” but also focus on high- “roadmap for anti-corruption”, where he has highlighted the ranking officials known as “tigers”, has netted, among its more “need for a temporary solution before a permanent cure”. As high-profile “tigers”: former Minister of Commerce Bo Xilai a long-term solution, he has outlined the government’s corrup- (one of the first “tigers” to fall); retired General Xu Caihou, a tion-free vision of a future generation of government officials former vice chair of the Central Military Commission, a former who “not dare to be corrupt,” then “not want to be corrupt,” and member of the Politburo, and ironically, the former secretary of finally “not be able to be corrupt.”44 the Discipline Inspection Committee of the Central Military On June 26, 2015, at the Politiburo collective study session, Commission; Zhou Yongkang, China’s former security czar and Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed the importance of laws former member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo and regulations in the anti-corruption campaign. who oversaw the country’s police, paramilitary, intelligence, According to Xi’s speech, though China has made great and legal forces; Ling Jihua, who served as head of the Central achievements in anti-corruption campaign since the 18th Par- Committee’s General Office during President Hu Jintao’s ty congress, the overall situation is still serious. Xi stressed that tenure; and General Guo Boxiong, former vice chairman of the anti-corruption campaign will not stop despite some skeptical Central Military Commission 41,42. views in Chinese society. What is most important now is the In October 2015, Chinese anti-graft officials commenced an building of institutions, which includes the attendant laws and investigation of Su Shulin, the former chairman of the major regulations. Xi also emphasized that the Party will not allow the oil and gas company Sinopec, who now serves as governor of so-called “broken window” effect to occur.47 China’s affluent Fujian province. On November 11, 2015, Lü From this study session, the message is clear enough: the Xiwen, deputy secretary of the Beijing Municipal Party Com- first stage of anti-corruption campaign is largely over, and many mittee, was detained as a suspect for serious violations of par- big “tigers,” such as Zhou Yongkang and Xu Caihou, have been ty discipline. With her capture, along with the beginning of brought down. investigation against Vice Mayor Ai Baojun of Shanghai one Nonetheless, as Xi and Wang often emphasize, China is en- day earlier, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection tering the second stage of anti-corruption campaign. 47 (CCDI) has managed to uncover corrupt officials of vice-min- According to an essay in The Diplomat, the key to success in isterial rank (i.e., “tigers”) in all 31 provincial-level units in this step is to build effective institutions to prevent corruption mainland China. 43 from occurring at all—in Chinese, it means officials will be Government officials are not the only targets of Xi’s anti- “unable to engage in corruption,” even if they wanted to do so.

38 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

被调查并开除党籍。7月初，国家媒体报道称蒋洁敏已 为了解决这个问题，中央在集体学习会当日通过 被调查并开除党籍。蒋洁敏曾任国务院国有资产监督管 了一项相关的政策改革，这可能也是中共十八大以来最 理委员会（国资委）主任，国资委就是负责管理中国国 重要的人事制度改革。这项新政策的核心是要保证干部 有企业的主要部门。据路透社报道，中国证券监督管理 能上能下。在其他国家，干部能上能下可能是普通的 委员会（中国证监会）主席助理张育军也涉嫌“严重违 政策，但是在中国的情况不一样，干部晋升到一定级别 纪”。出现“严重违纪”一词，通常意味着这是一起腐 后，他们不会因为能力不足或政策失误而降低级别。他 败案件。45 们可能会被解除职务，但是级别会被保留，因此他们仍 然享受与以往同样的福利，如公费医疗和其他好处。对 中国全面打击政府腐败，目前在中国国内已经抓捕 习近平而言，这项政策的目的，显然是为了清除那些反 了成百上千的腐败官员，现在这股反腐风潮将会跨越国 对改革、腐败无能的官员47。 境。国务院日前证实，中国司法部门已经向美国提供了 一份名单，上面记录了150名潜逃美国的中国腐败官员， 当然，习近平的反腐败运动第二阶段及人事制度改 并且承诺开展国际合作，希望引渡他们回到中国46。 革是否能够成功，还有待进一步观察。如果中国能够切 实施行这些改革，我们将会在2020年看到一个更清廉、 中共中央纪律检查委员会书记王岐山是中国的反 更高效的政治体制。 腐“沙皇”，他关于政府“反腐路线图”的讲话被媒体 广泛引用。在讲话中，他强调“在根治腐败之前需要短 观察人士仍在思考反腐败运动会带来多少益处或意 期的解决方案”。作为长期解决方案，他设想在未来 料之外的负面影响。不过，单从近期的发展情况来看， 形成一个廉洁清明的政治机制，可以使政府官员“不敢 有一点是显而易见的：在习近平主席的领导下，王岐山 腐”，然后“不想腐”，最终“不能腐”44。 书记仍然会全力以赴，履行其反腐使命，使中国成为一 个无腐败的国家。 2015年6月26日，中共中央政治局进行了一次集体 学习，国家主席习近平发表讲话时强调了法律法规在反 反腐败运动：背景 腐败运动中的重要性。 以下章节摘自《2015中国营商环境白皮书》 习近平在讲话中说，中共十八大以来，中国的反 腐败运动虽然已经取得显著成效，但是整体形势仍然严 2014年3月，全国人民代表大会二次议闭幕之后， 峻。他强调，尽管有人对中国社会提出怀疑，但是中国 国务院总理李克强会见中外记者并回答记者提出的问 的反腐败运动不会因此停止。目前最重要的是法规制度 题。在回答有关中国反腐败的问题时，李克强总理 建设，包括制定相应的法律法规。他还强调要坚决防止 说，“中国是法治国家，不论是谁，不论职位高低，法 所谓“破窗”效应。47 律面前人人平等，只要是触犯了党纪国法，就要依法依 纪严肃查处、惩治”5。 这次集体学习会议传达的信息非常清楚：中国反腐 败运动的第一阶段已基本结束，许多像周永康、徐才厚 李克强总理说，对于腐败分子和腐败行为，中国实行 这样的“大老虎”已经落马。 的是“零容忍”。他还说，“腐败是人民政府的天敌”5。

不过，随着第一阶段的结束，中国也进入了反腐 据新华社报道，2014年7月，中国开展了代号为“猎 败运动的第二阶段，这也是习近平和王岐山常常强调 狐2014”的专项行动，缉捕在逃境外的腐败官员和经济 的一点。47 犯罪嫌疑人”。因为中国大规模的反腐败运动缩小了滥 用权力的空间，很多腐败官员开始逃亡海外。猎狐行动 《美国外交官亚太事务杂志》的一篇文章认为， 的目的，就是切断在逃腐败官员的最后撤退路线。该专 反腐败运动第二阶段成功的关键在于建立有效的政治 项行动抓获288名嫌疑人，其中潜逃十年以上的在逃境外 机制，杜绝腐败现象的发生。在中国，这意味着官员 经济犯罪嫌疑人21名，从美国、加拿大、日本、比利时 将“无法腐败”，即使他们想腐败也无从下手。在这 等发达国家抓获84名。政府多个部门曾发布通告，通告 方面仍需要做大量的工作，包括设计有效的体制，以 指出，在逃境外经济犯罪嫌疑人以及大部分贪污腐败的 及如何在现实中有效执行。47 前政府官员，如果在2014年12月1日前自动投案，可依法 从轻或减轻处罚。 根据习近平的反腐“三步走”理论，第二阶段的 成功，将会最终过渡到第三阶段：“不想腐败。”这 新华社指出，从这次专项行动的成功执行可以看 将会从根本上改变中国的政治文化，比改变政治体制 出，中国的法律制度和法治水平已经有了较大提高，在 困难得多。 执法行动中，很多国家与中国加强了合作和协调”。据

39 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

There is still a lot of work to be done in this area, both in terms economic crimes who have fled the country. Fox Hunt’s goal: of designing effective institutions and implementing them “block the last route of retreat” for corrupt officials after the forcefully in reality. 47 country’s crackdown narrows the space for abuse of power. The Based on the three-stage theory of Xi’s anti-corruption cam- hunt netted 288 suspects, including 21 who had been at large paign, the success of this second stage eventually will lead to the for more than a decade, and 84 from developed countries such third stage: “do not even think about engaging in corruption.” as the U.S., Canada, Japan and Belgium. An ultimatum was is- This endeavor is fundamentally about changing China’s polit- sued – December 1, 2014 -- for escaped economic crimes sus- ical culture - much more difficult than changing institutions. pects, mostly corrupt former government officials, to give them- To address this problem, one related policy reform— selves up in exchange for lenient sentences. perhaps the most significant personnel reform after the 18th Xinhua noted the success of the operation as “a positive sign Party Congress—was also adopted on the same day. The that the legal system and rule of law have been greatly improved essence of this new reform is to make sure that leading cadres in China, with many countries strengthening cooperation of the Party can be both promoted and demoted. Although this and coordination with China on law enforcement.” Media re- might sound like a normal policy in other countries, in China ports noted that President Xi Jinping referred to hunting for it is usually the case that party leaders, once they have reached a economic crimes suspects overseas and recovering embezzled high rank, cannot be demoted for their incompetence or policy money on various occasions during trips overseas, in a bid to failures. They could be removed from their posts, but their rank strengthen law enforcement cooperation with other countries would stay with them, thus entitling them to the same benefits such as when visiting Australia, New Zealand, Fiji or attend- – medical and otherwise – that they’d have received before. The ing the G20 Summit in Brisbane. China has also helped forge mission, for Xi, obviously is to eliminate those officials who are a cross-border law enforcement network to strengthen transna- against reforms and are corrupted and incompetent. 47 tional anti-corruption cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region, Whether or not Xi’s new anti-corruption and personnel re- which was adopted by APEC leaders during the November forms will succeed, of course, remains to be seen. If they can 2014 summit in Beijing.6 effectively implement these reforms, perhaps we can expect a Closer to home, the anti-corruption campaign continued much cleaner and more effective governance system in China in November 2014 when China’s deputy Procurator-General by 2020. Qiu Xueqiang announced that China will establish a new anti- While observers ponder on the benefits or unintended graft body to further increase pressure on corrupt officials.7 negative consequences of the anti-corruption campaign, In an exclusive interview with Xinhua, Mr. Qiu said that the what remains obvious, just judging based on these recent plan for a new anti-graft agency was put forward by the Party developments alone, is that Mr. Wang Qishan, under President committee of the Supreme People’s Procuratorate (SPP) and Xi Jinping’s leadership, remains fully committed to his role and was approved by the central authority. A vice-ministerial level, to carrying out his mission in making a corruption-free China full-time member of the procuratorial committee will hold a come true. concurrent post as head of the new anti-graft agency, Mr. Qiu added. According to Xinhua, China had established the anti- Anti-Corruption Campaign: Background corruption bureau under the SPP in 1995 but after almost 20 (This section “Anti-Corruption Campaign” is incorporated from years of development, the bureau has struggled to meet the our 2015 White Paper.) demands for anti-corruption work. Mr. Qiu promised that the new agency will be “better organized and better able to help In March 2014, while meeting with foreign media reporters the SPP handle major cases and break institutional obstacles” 7. after the closing session of the National People’s Congress and In addition to tightened scrutiny from a new anti-graft in response to questions about anti-corruption, Premier Li body, the anti-corruption drive continues unabated as compa- Keqiang was quoted as saying: “China is a country ruled by nies and public service groups supervised by the Communist law, no matter who you are, regardless of rank, there is equality Party of China (CPC) and government departments will also before the law. For those who have violated party discipline, it face a new round of top-level disciplinary inspections, Xinhua is necessary according to the law, to be severely disciplined and reported. Anti-graft measures set by the CPC and disciplinary punished”5. inspections by superior authorities have played a great role in For the corrupt and for corruption, Premier Li said, China uncovering and correcting misconducts.8 has “zero tolerance.” He declared that “corruption is the natural “Over the past two years, central inspection teams have enemy of the people’s government”5. covered Party and government departments at the provincial In July 2014, Xinhua reported that China had launched its level. Next, we will focus on organizations supervised by cen- Fox Hunt operation, targeting corrupt officials and suspects of tral authorities,” Wang Ying, a senior official with the central

40 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

媒体报道，为了加强与其他国家联合执法。习近平主 新华社报道，今年主办方第一次邀请中国网友共同参与 席在海外访问时，为加强联合执法力度，在出访澳大利 评选过程。10 亚、新西兰、斐济，以及在布里斯班出席20国集团峰会 期间，曾多次提及中国追捕在逃境外经济犯罪嫌疑人、 新华社报道显示，在推荐提名开始之后，有数千名 追回贪污贿赂资金的专项行动。此外，为了加强亚太地 网友在《人民日报》网站提出了自己的建议。推荐的字 区的跨国反腐败合作，中国还打造了了一个跨境执法网 词包括词语“拍蝇打虎”，“拍蝇打虎”是习近平主席 络。2014年11月，在亚太经合组织会议北京峰会期间， 用过的词语，展示了他反腐的决心，无论腐败分子多么 各国领导人正式采用了这个反腐败执法合作网络。6 有权势，都必须彻底清除。10

在国内，中国的反腐败运动仍然在继续。2014年11 另外一个被很多网友推荐的字是“法”字，“法” 月，中国最高人民检察院副检察长邱学强向媒体表示，中 字曾被选为今年中共十八届四中全会的主题。一位名 国将成立一个新的反贪总局，进一步向腐败官员施压7。 叫周艳荣（音）的微博用户在《人民日报》网站上写 据新华社独家报道，邱学强说，成立新的反贪机构是由最 道，“这个词不仅反映了政府对它非常重视的事实，还 高人民检察院党组提出的，对此党中央已经正式批准。邱 表示为了唤起公众的法治意识，仍需要做更多努力。”10 学强还补充说，新的反贪总局局长将有一名副部级检察委 员会专职委员兼任。据新华社的报道，中国在1995年已经 而经济学家茅于轼推荐的是“盼”字。他说，“我期 成立最高人民检察院反贪污贿赂总局，但是经过近20年的 待中国宪法改革取得进步，这是中国目前的核心问题”10。 发展，反贪污贿赂总局已经不能完全适应当前反腐斗争新 形势的需要。邱学强称，新的反贪总局将“整合力量，优 《咬文嚼字》主编、著名语言文字专家郝铭鉴则 化职能，有利于最高人民检察院集中精力查办大案要案， 推荐“振”字。他觉得“振”字可以理解为“振奋” 有利于破除制约办案工作发展的体制障碍。”7 或“复苏”。郝铭鉴说，他认为“因为政府大力打击腐 败，2014年是充满振奋和希望的一年”10。 据新华社报道，除了受到新成立的反贪总局越来越 严格的监督之外，中国共产党监督下的企事业单位和政 只用一个流行语来描述过去的一年，也许有点过于 府部门还将面临新一轮的高级别纪律检查。由此可见， 简单化。但是，用上述字词来形容中国却又那么恰如其 中国的反腐力度可谓有增无减。在上级领导的支持下， 分：“拍蝇打虎”、“法”、“盼”、“振奋和希望” 中国共产党纪律检查机关制定的反贪措施，对揭露和纠 ，这些简洁的字词，充分体现了2014年中国在改革、反 正不正之风起到了非常重要的作用8。 腐和法治等领域付出的努力和取得的进步。虽然改革面 临着诸多挑战，也会遭遇挫折，但是改革仍在继续。对 据中央巡视组副局级巡视专员王瑛在接受采访时 于中国的改革，外国在华企业需要多一点耐心，在保持 介绍，“在两年的时间里，中央巡视组已经完成了全国 警惕的同时期望最好的结果。 各省、区党政部门的巡视。接下来，巡视组将会把目光 放在由中央监管的组织机构上。”但对于接下来的新一 中国的领导层也并没有志得意满，固步自封。2014 轮巡视将于何时开始，持续多久，王瑛则拒绝透露。不 年12月中旬，就在本文撰写之时，中国最高领导层正举 过，他说，中央巡视组会对某些党政部门开展巡视“回 行会议，为2015年制定经济规划。据彭博社报道，由于 头看”。中央巡视组已经完成的四轮巡视，除了地方党 经济增速继续放缓，中国面临着通货紧缩的风险，经济 政部门之外，巡视对象还包括7家中央单位、6家中央企 学家预计中国政府将下调明年的经济增长目标，从今年 业和2所部属高校8。 的7.5%下调至7%左右，以适应经济中高速增长的“新常 态”。分析人士认为，这意味着货币政策还有“松动” 新华社的报道指出，让苏荣等高层官员纷纷落马的 的空间，“中国将实施松紧适度的货币政策，灵活结合 腐败案件，都是中央巡视组发现线索并报中纪委立案查处 使用下调利率和调降存款准备金率等措施，努力维持宏 的。中国人民政治协商会议全国委员会是中国最高的政治 观经济稳定，解决经济结构不平衡问题”40。 协商机构，苏荣曾担任第十二届全国委员会副主席。8

带着希望继续前进

中国每年都会评选出一个年度字词，用来描写刚刚 过去的一年。该评选活动由国家语言资源监测与研究中 心、商务印书馆以及《人民日报》网站共同主办。根据

41 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

inspection team, said. He refused to disclose the time and du- China’s leaders are not sitting on their laurels either. In mid- ration of the upcoming inspections, but said certain Party and December 2014, as of this writing, China’s top leaders began government departments would be rechecked. In addition to meeting to map out economic plans for 2015. According to local Party and government units, the previous four rounds of Bloomberg, as the economy continues to slow with China central inspections had covered seven public service institutes, facing deflation risks, economists expect the government to six state-owned enterprises and two universities.8 lower next year’s economic growth target to 7 percent from Xinhua observed that central inspections had been respon- about 7.5 percent this year as it adapts to the “new normal” sible for the downfall of corrupt high-level officials such as Su of a slower expansion pace. Analysts say this signals room for Rong, former vice chairman of the Chinese People’s Political further monetary “easing”, with “more flexibility in combining Consultative Conference National Committee, the country’s interest rate and reserve requirement cuts with targeted easing top political advisory body.8 measures to maintain macro stability and address structural imbalances.” 40 Moving Forward: Hope Every year, China coins a catchphrase to describe the year that has just passed, an activity organized by the government- backed Chinese National Language Monitoring and Research Center in tandem with a publishing house and the website of People’s Daily. This year, according toXinhua , for the first time Chinese Internet users were invited to assist with the selection process.10 According to Xinhua, the recommendations, which flooded the People’s Daily website by the thousands, include the phrase “pai ying da hu” which means to “hunt tigers and swat flies,” a phrase used by President Xi Jinping to show his determination to root out corrupt officials, no matter how powerful.10 Another recommendation is “fa” or “law”, which was picked as the theme for this year’s Fourth Plenum. “The word not only reflects the fact that the government attaches a high importance to it, it also means that more efforts are needed to raise public awareness of rule of law,” wrote one microblogger named Zhou Yanrong on the People’s Daily website.10 Mao Yushi, an economist, told local media that he had recommended the character “pan” meaning “expectations”. He said: “I expect progress in China’s constitutional reform, which is a key issue in China now.”10 Another scholar, Hao Mingjian — the editor-in-chief of a well-respected magazine that focuses on the study of Chinese language – suggested the character “zhen” which can be translated to mean “cheer up” or “rebounce”. Mr. Hao said that he thinks “2014 was a year of cheer and hope, thanks to the government crackdown against corruption.” 10 While it may be simplifying things a tad to use a catch phrase– it is rather remarkable at how apropos these words do seem to be - “hunt tigers and swat flies,” “law,” “expectations”, “cheer and hope” at succinctly encapsulating the breadth and volume of what has transpired this year in the areas of reform, anti-corruption and the rule of law in China. Yes, there are challenges and occasional setbacks but reforms are ongoing – foreign companies in China can practise patience, exercise vigi- lance and hope for the best.

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Works Cited 13 “Let rule of law take root.” China Daily. October 21, 2014. http:// usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2014-10/21/content_18777973.htm 1 “USCBC Economic Reform Scorecard.” US-China Business Council. June 2014. 14 Kenneth Jarrett. “Anti-Monopoly Cases Tougher on Local Compa- nies.” Insight, The Voice of the American Chamber of Commerce in 2 Bill Powell. “Is This The End of China’s Economic Miracle?” Shanghai. September 9, 2014. http://insight.amcham-shanghai.org/ Newsweek. November 26, 2014. http://www.newsweek. anti-monopoly-cases-tougher-local-companies-says-vice-premier/ com/2014/12/05/china-after-gold-rush-286757.html 15 Daniel H. Rosen. “Avoiding the Blind Alley: China’s Economic 3 “China marks Constitution Day amid legal push.” China Dai- Overhaul and its Economic Implications.” An Asia Society Policy ly. December 4, 2014. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/chi- Report produced in collaboration with Rhodium Group. October na/2014-12/04/content_19025015.htm 31, 2014. http://asiasociety.org/files/pdf/AvoidingtheBlindAl- ley_FullReport.pdf 4 人民日报社论：实现依法治国的历史跨越（Editorial by People’s Daily: Leapfrogging Development of the Rule of Law with 16 Dexter Roberts. “US Companies Fear Growing Protectionism Historical Significance）People’s Daily, October 23, 2014. http:// in China.” Businessweek. September 3, 2014. http://www. opinion.people.com.cn/n/2014/1023/c1003-25896876.html businessweek.com/articles/2014-09-03/chinas-anti-monopoly- push-creates-anxiety-for-u-dot-s-dot-businesses 5 “Li Keqiang: Equality before the law, regardless of rank.” Cen- tral Discipline Inspection Commission of Supervision, People’s 17 Yang Jie, Laurie Burkitt. “China Denies Using Anti-Monopoly Law Republic of China. March 14, 2014. http://www.ccdi.gov.cn/ to Target Foreign Companies.” Wall Street Journal. September 11, gcsy/201403/t20140314_20079.html 2014. http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-denies-using-antimo- nopoly-law-to-target-foreign-companies-1410429955 6 Yuan Can. “China Voice: Leave no space for escaped corrupt officials.” Xinhua. November 25, 2014. http://en.people. 18 Russell Leigh Moses. “Of Politics, Pushback and Publishing in Bei- cn/n/2014/1125/c90785-8814009.html jing. Wall Street Journal. August 16, 2013. http://blogs.wsj.com/ chinarealtime/2013/08/16/of-politics-publishing-and-push- 7 Liang Jun. “China to set up new anti-corruption agency.” Xinhua. back-in-beijing/ November 3, 2014. http://en.people.cn/n/2014/1103/c90785- 8803765.html 19 “China shuffles the decks of state ownership.” China Economic Review. June 18, 2014. http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/ 8 Luan. “China’s graft inspection to target state-owned groups.”Xin - china-soe-reform-citc-pacific-hong-kong hua. November 14, 2014. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/ china/2014-11/14/c_133790640.htm 20 Yongnian Zheng and Minjia Chen. “China’s Recent State-Owned Enterprise Reform and its Social Consequences.” China Policy In- 9 Li Jinlei. “四中全会打造法治经济,助推中国经济转型 stitute, University of Nottingham, UK. June 2007. http://www. 升级” Xinhua. November 1, 2014. http://finance.ifeng. nottingham.ac.uk/cpi/documents/briefings/briefing-23-china- com/a/20141101/13238945_0.shtml state-owned-enterprise-reform.pdf

10 Zhang Xuejian, Ma Si. “APEC Blue, Tigers and Flies: What Chi- 21 Tom Orlik. “Charting China’s Economy: 10 Years Under Hu.” Wall nese Phrase Best Describes 2014?” Wall Street Journal. November Street Journal. November 16, 2012. http://blogs.wsj.com/chinar- 28, 2014. http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/11/28/apec- ealtime/2012/11/16/charting-chinas-economy-10-years-under- blue-tigers-and-flies-what-chinese-phrase-best-describes-2014/ hu-jintao/

11 Xiao Feng. “中国拟大幅缩减外商投资限制类条目”. Xinhua. 22 Malcolm Moore. “Communist Party Congress: A Decade November 12, 2014. http://www.qianzhan.com/indynews/de- Under Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao.” The Telegraph. November tail/150/141112-f7dff52d.html 14, 2012.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/ china/9677748/Communist-Party-Congress-a-decade-under- 12 “Ministry of Commerce: China will set up first foreign investment Hu-Jintao-and-Wen-Jiabao.html negative list “ Xinhua. September 10, 2014. http://www.yicai. com/news/2014/09/4017187.html

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23 Nick Lyne. “China: Sixty Years of Progress.” FIRST Magazine 33 Rachel Armstrong and Michael Flaherty. “CNOOC pledge small step Special Report. 2009.http://www.firstmagazine.com/Publishing/ for China transparency, skeptics abound.” Reuters. December 10, 2012. SpecialReportsDetail.aspx?RegionId=4&SpecialReportId=68 http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/10/us-investment-china- idUSBRE8B80FJ20121210. 24 Tom Orlik. “Charting China’s Economy: 10 Years Under Hu.” China Real Time. November 16, 2012. http://blogs.wsj.com/ 34 Gabriel Wildau. “China Cautiously Embraces Privatisation of chinarealtime/2012/11/16/charting-chinas-economy-10-years- State-Owned Enterprises.” Financial Times. September 25, 2015. under-hu-jintao/. Accessed December 6, 2012. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/69253d76-633c-11e5-97e9- 7f0bf5e7177b.html#axzz3u5fgXQgN 25 Stanley Lubman. “China’s State Capitalism: the Real World Implications.” China Real Time. March 1, 2012. http://blogs.wsj. 35 Xinhua. “China Reveals Plan for Reforming State-Owned com/chinarealtime/2012/03/01/chinas-state-capitalism-the-real- Enterprises.” CNBC. September 13, 2015. http://www. world-implications/. cnbc.com/2015/09/13/china-issues-plans-for-reform- ing-state-owned-enterprises-xinhua.html 26 Charlie Zhu and Lucy Hornby. “WRAPUP 1-Chinese state firms say reform should mean more growth.” Reuters. November 9, 2012. 36 Ankit Panda. “Is China Serious About Its New State-Owned http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/09/china-congress- Enterprise Reforms?” The Diplomat. September 14, 2015. http:// idUSL3E8M91LK20121109. thediplomat.com/2015/09/is-china-serious-about-its-new-state- owned-enterprise-reforms/ 27 Andrew Browne. “Eight Questions: James McGregor, ‘No An- cient Wisdom, No Followers’.” China Real Time. October 1, 2012. 37 “A Whimper, Not A Bang.” The Economist. September 19, 2015. http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2012/10/01/eight-ques- http://www.economist.com/news/business/21665065-chinas-plan- tions-james-mcgregor-no-ancient-wisdom-no-followers/ reform-its-troubled-state-firms-fails-impress-whimper-not-bang

28 Christopher Helman. “Obama Blocks China’s Second-Richest 38 Lingling Wei. “China Unveils Overhaul of Bloated State Sector.” Man From Owning Wind Farm Near Secret Navy Base.” Wall Street Journal. September 13, 2015. http://www.wsj.com/ Forbes. September 29, 2012. http://www.forbes.com/sites/ articles/china-to-allow-state-owned-enterprises-to-sell-shares-to- christopherhelman/2012/09/29/obama-blocks-chinas-second- public-1442138335 richest-man-from-owning-wind-farm-near-secret-navy-base/. 39 Editorial. “Government Must Stop Micro-managing SOE Re- 29 Lucy Hornby. “China derides U.S. “Cold War mentality” form.” South China Morning Post. September 20, 2015. http:// towards telecoms firm Huawei.”Reuters . November 10, 2012. www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1859707/ http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/10/us-china-huawei- government-must-stop-micromanaging-state-enterprise-reform idUSBRE8A905520121110. 40 “China Deflation Risk Deepens Signaling Room for Easing: Econ- 30 Zhou Xin and Tom Miles. “UPDATE 1-China to vet inward omy.” Bloomberg. December 10, 2014. http://www.bloomberg. M&A deals for national security.” Reuters. February 12, 2011. com/news/2014-12-10/china-factory-gate-deflation-deep- http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/12/china-ma- ens-as-consumer-prices-moderate.html idUSTOE71B00L20110212. 41 Te-Ping Chen. “China’s Anti-Corruption Drive Gets ‘Shot in the 31 Paul Eckert and Stella Dawson. “Ten years on, American business Arm’.” Wall Street Journal. July 20, 2015. http://www.wsj.com/ rethinks China dreams.” Reuters. December 9, 2011. http:// articles/chinas-anti-graft-drive-gets-shot-in-the-arm-1437415096 www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/09/uk-usa-trade-wto- idUSLNE7B801C20111209. 42 Shannon Tiezi. “With Latest Ouster, China Steps Up Fight Against Military Corruption.” The Diplomat. July 31, 2015. 32 Michael Erman and David Ljunggren. “Canada OK’s foreign http://thediplomat.com/2015/07/with-latest-ouster-china-steps- energy takeovers, but slams door on any more.” Reuters. December up-fight-against-military-corruption/ 8, 2012. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/08/us-cnooc- nexen-idUSBRE8B619M20121208. 43 Bo Zhiyue. “China’s Anti-Corruption Campaign Marches On.” The Diplomat. November 14, 2015. http://thediplomat. com/2015/11/chinas-anti-corruption-campaign-marches-on/

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44 Yang Hengjun. “Does China Have a Roadmap to Eliminate Corruption?” The Diplomat. August 29, 2015. http://thediplomat. com/2015/08/does-china-have-a-roadmap-to-eliminate-corruption

45 Nash Jenkins. “China Accuses A Top Market Regulator of “Disciplinary Violations. “ Time. September 17, 2015. http:// time.com/4037810/china-securities-market-zhang-yujun- regulator-corruption/

46 Macabe Keliher, Hsinchao Wu. “How To Discipline 90 Million People.” The Atlantic. April 7, 2015. http://www.theatlantic.com/ international/archive/2015/04/xi-jinping-china-corruption- political-culture/389787/

47 Dingding Chen. “China’s Anti-Corruption Campaign Enters Phase Two.” The Diplomat. July 2, 2015. http://thediplomat. com/2015/07/chinas-anti-corruption-campaign-enters-phase-two/

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1.4 Rising Soft Power

Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank President Xi Jinping’s “Chinese dream.” 2 (AIIB) and “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) Jin Liqun, president-designate of the Asian Infrastructure Initiative Investment Bank, said that the new bank wouldn’t select projects to favor Chinese companies and wouldn’t act as “China’s bank”. he China-initiated Asian Infrastructure In- When asked whether the bank might have an institutional Tvestment Bank (AIIB), signed by 51 Prospective Found- bias toward Chinese companies, Mr. Jin replied: “China is the ing Members (PFMs) as of September 2015, is expected to be major shareholder. But this does not mean that this is China’s operational by the end of this year. China has been generally bank. The bank is not owned, managed or operated by China. cooperative with and supportive of the Bretton Woods insti- The bank practices universal procurement and universal tutions. At the same time, it is frustrated that existing multi- recruitment,” and wouldn’t favor Chinese companies over those lateral institutions limit its global ambitions. The slow pace from, say, the U.S., he added. 1 of reforms at the Western-dominated IMF and World Bank Mr. Jin said the AIIB will invest in core infrastructure proj- prevents China and other emerging economies from playing a ects such as railroads and power, but retain the option to broad- greater role in international political economy. The AIIB aims en its portfolio into associated investments such as environmen- help to rectify the situation, while boosting China’s status as tal investments. “AIIB will be a good global citizen,” he said, a global power. 2 adding that the bank will operate with a focus on “transparency, China will be the largest shareholder, with 26.06 percent of openness, independence and accountability.” 1 the votes, giving it an effective veto over major decisions, fol- Some analysts suggest that the AIIB and OBOR are direct lowed by India with 7.5 percent and Russia with 5.92 percent; responses to the Obama administration’s rebalance to Asia; however, it is expected that all founding members will have the others consider them as examples of a more confident China right to create the governance and operational rules of the bank. attempting to reshape the global order. These may be important The bank came together in less than two years amid strong glob- factors, but there is a much more significant domestic impetus. al interest. It was seen as a propaganda victory for China when For example, many of the infrastructure projects proposed un- U.S. allies such as the U.K. and Germany joined. 3 der OBOR would benefit China’s poor inland regions, inte- China has also proposed the “Silk Road Economic Belt” and grating them with the global economy and helping to mitigate “21st Century Maritime Silk Road,” or “One Belt, One Road” China’s rapidly growing wealth gap. They will also contribute to (OBOR), an even broader and more ambitious initiative. The more balanced and sustainable development and allow China AIIB will serve as the financing arm of OBOR. The AIIB will to relocate its labor-intensive and low value-added manufactur- begin with authorized capital of $50 billion, eventually to be ing facilities overseas, helping solve the severe environmental raised to $100 billion. The projected investment for OBOR problem facing China today. will be $1.4 trillion, about 12 times larger than the Marshall Plan, which was about $120 billion in today’s value. In addition Challenges to the economic benefits, the AIIB and OBOR will significant- China faces many challenges in implementing the AIIB ly facilitate the movement of goods, services, and people across and OBOR. First, the United States and Japan remain non- national borders. 2 committal to the AIIB, although that is an improvement Over the past two decades, China has contributed from their previous firm opposition. The AIIB will probably substantially to infrastructure or “hardware” of many developing function well without the participation of the United States nations, but it remains short of “software” or soft power. As and Japan. But, The Diplomat argues, the participation of these Zhiqun Zhu, a professor of political science and international two countries is important for China since it will help improve relations in Bucknell University, states in The Diplomat, the new bank’s credit rating and give it added legitimacy. 2 Beijing hopes that its new initiatives with a non-coercive, non- Many recipient countries in Asia have poor credit, which military approach will help enhance its international image as a means many projects may be promising at the beginning but responsible global power. The AIIB and OBOR have become will be difficult to pursue, observesThe Diplomat. Agreement an integral part of China’s new diplomacy, reflecting its growing and consensus are reached at the top levels of government, but interests and clout. They are also important steps to realizing implementation is at the local level. 2

50 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

1.4 提升软实力

亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB)和“一带 亚投行是否在制度上对中国企业有所偏爱，金立群回答 一路”(OBOR) 倡议 称，“中国是第一大股东，但是这并不意味着亚投行是 中国的银行。亚投行并不是中国所有，也不是由中国管 截至2015年9月，由中国倡议筹建的亚洲基础设施 理或运营。亚投行会面向全球进行采购和招募员工。” 投资银行（亚投行）已有51个意向创始成员国签约，预 他还补充说，“亚投行不会偏爱中国企业而拒绝其他国 1 计在2015年年底投入运营。总体而言，中国长期以来一 家的企业，比如说美国的企业。” 直配合和支持布雷顿森林体系。同时，现有的多边机构 限制了中国在全球拓展，令中国深感失望。西方国家主 金立群表示，亚投行将会投资核心基础设施项目， 导的国际货币基金组织和世界银行改革进展缓慢，妨碍 例如铁路和电力，但是保留扩大投资组合的选择，可能 了中国及其他新兴经济体在国际政治经济中发挥更大的 会投资其他相关项目，例如环境投资。他说，“亚投行 作用。成立亚投行就是为了改变这种局面，同时提高中 将会是一个良好的国际公民。”而且亚投行的运营将会 1 国作为世界大国的国际地位。2 保持“透明、公开、独立和负责。”

中国是亚投行在重大决定上的第一大股东，拥有 有分析人士认为，倡议建立亚投行和建设“一带一 26.06%的投票权，这意味着中国拥有一票否决权。印度 路”是中国对奥巴马政府“亚洲再平衡”战略的直接回 和俄罗斯位列其后，分别拥有7.5%和5.92%的投票权。不 应。也有人认为，这是一个更加自信的中国试图重新调 过，预计所有创始成员国均有权力参与制定亚投行的管理 整世界秩序的体现。也许这些都是重要的因素，但是还 和运营规则。亚投行从提出筹建到正式成立只用了不到两 有一个更加重要的国内驱动力。例如，“一带一路”建 年时间，吸引了全球各国的强烈兴趣。美国的盟友如英 设方案下的许多基础设施项目会让中国贫穷的内陆地区 国、德国等也加入了亚投行，这被认为是一次舆论上的胜 获益，使其与世界经济相融合，有利于缩小中国日益加 利。3 剧的贫富差距。亚投行和“一带一路”建设也有助于中 国经济平衡和可持续发展，中国可以借此机会将其劳动 中国也提出建设“丝绸之路经济带”和“21世纪海 密集型的低附加值制造业设施转移至海外，帮助解决目 上丝绸之路”，简称“一带一路”建设方案。这是一个 前面临的严重环境污染问题。 规模更大、更为雄心勃勃的倡议。亚投行将会成为“一 带一路”建设的关键融资工具。亚投行初始认缴资本为 中国面临的挑战 500亿美元，最终将增加到1000亿美元。“一带一路” 预计投资金额为1.4万亿美元，是马歇尔计划现值的十 中国实施亚投行和“一带一路”面临着许多挑战。 二倍。以今天的价值计算的话，马歇尔计划的投资金额 首先，美国和日本仍然没有加入亚投行，虽然与之前的强 仅为1200亿美元。除了经济利益外，亚投行和“一带一 烈反对相比，其态度已有所缓和。没有美国和日本的参 路”还会对商品、服务和劳务的跨境流动产生极大的推 与，亚投行也可能运营良好。但是，《美国外交官亚太时 动作用。2 事杂志》认为，美日的参与将会有利于提高亚投行的信用 评级，并增加其合法性，这对中国具有重要意义。2 在过去二十年里，中国对许多发展中国家的基础 设施或“硬件”建设作出了巨大贡献，但是中国仍然缺 《美国外交官亚太时事杂志》指出，接受亚投行投 乏“软件”，即“软实力”。美国巴克内尔大学政治学 资的很多亚洲国家具有较差的信用评价，这意味着许多 与国际关系教授朱智群在《美国外交官亚太时事杂志》 投资项目在开始时可能充满希望，但是后续执行却困难 撰文称，中国政府希望这两项非胁迫性、非军事性的倡 重重。协议与共识是在政府高层达成的，但是实施项目 2 议能帮助提升中国作为一个负责任的世界大国的国际形 的是地方基层。 象。亚投行和“一带一路”是中国外交新政策的组成部 分，体现了中国日益增长的全球利益和影响力，也是实 中国在亚投行有举足轻重的地位，普遍认为这是中 现习近平主席“中国梦”的重要步骤。2 国施展全球影响力所取得的一次成功。同时也意味着， 中国在这个新建国际金融机构内面临的限制也会越来越 金立群是亚投行侯任行长。他说，亚投行不会偏袒 多。德国、英国、澳大利亚这些发达国家加入之后，亚 中国企业，亚投行也不会成为“中国的银行”。在问及 投行必须维持与现有多边开发银行（MDB）类似（但并

51 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

While the AIIB’s membership has been unequivocally • Reauthorize OPIC on a long-term basis, remove or hailed as a success for Chinese global influence, it also means further loosen OPIC’s carbon cap, triple OPIC’s that China may face increased internal constraints at the new financing limit and increase its staff to 400. The institution. With countries like Germany, the United Kingdom, ensuing increases in financial capital and staff should and Australia now involved, China may face real pressure to be focused on Africa and Asia. ensure that the AIIB maintains a variety of standards and • Double U.S. Trade and Development Agency’s budget practices similar (but not the same) to those at existing MDBs. and staff. This relatively small agency is charged with Forbes notes that China’s turn towards multilateral economic increasing U.S. exports while also supporting economic engagement through the AIIB is recognition of the value in growth in developing markets. partnering with established economies whose investments bear • Japan and the U.S. should seek a new capital increase the “good housekeeping seal of approval.” 4 for the ADB or a special capital increase. The ADB recently increased its lending by 40 percent, which Implications is a positive development. However, Asia is facing a The AIIB, however, will undoubtedly face challenges and projected $8 trillion infrastructure gap over the next growing pains. There is an opportunity for the United States and decade. The ADB and World Bank together offer less its partners to help the new institution face these implementa- than $400 billion in capital, and have mandates that tion challenges, and establish the fledgling infrastructure fund encompass a range of initiatives other than infrastruc- as a positive player in global development. An effective approach ture development. will require coordinated action with Japan and other allies. • Review business processes at the ADB, IFC, EXIM, The good news is that with some legislative actions, in- OPIC, and the World Bank, including implicit and ex- creased U.S. leadership within existing multilateral develop- plicit policies that constrain support for coal, hydro, oil, ment banks (MDBs), and relatively small amounts of money, gas and nuclear energy investments. The G24 and G20 the United States could respond in a serious and constructive have both expressed frustration with the lack of move- way to the AIIB. ment on these issues. 4 The AIIB was just an idea two years ago. Its rapid success is a result of major gaps in what the established international Recent Developments architecture is offering in terms of global progress, China’s new Instead of joining the AIIB, the Obama Administration of- status as one of the top trading partners to dozens of countries, fered up another option to 11 countries in Asia: the Trans-Pacific and unmet development needs around the world. Daniel Runde Partnership (TPP), although this “next generation” trade agree- at Forbes argues that there are specific U.S.-centric factors ment did not include China – the region’s most important trading leading to practical demand for the new institution. 4 nation. China, in turn, didn’t invite the United States to its version One is that energy and power policy decisions have curtailed of the TPP – the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership U.S. ability to meet global infrastructure and energy demand. (RCEP), a trade initiative which links 16 nations in Asia. Exceptionally rigorous standards have prevented the World Even U.S. allies, however, such as Australia and Japan, say the Bank, Asian Development Bank and IFC from providing ener- TPP intrudes too much into their internal affairs. The TPP re- gy needs that developing countries are demanding right now. 4 quires more than tariff reductions and gets involved with intellec- Some have suggested that the AIIB and the U.S.-led tual property rights, data protection rules, corporate governance, Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could be complementary. The labor and environmental standards, and financial regulations. recently agreed TPP will establish the next generation of rules Many major economies in Asia, such as Australia, Singapore, of commerce, or “software” for deeper economic integration. South Korea, and Vietnam had stated they want to be part The AIIB, working as a complement to the World Bank and of both Chinese initiatives (the AIIB and the ‘One Belt, One Asian Development Bank, could help finance the “hardware” Road’) and the TPP. 6 While TPP negotiations were completed or infrastructure, in Asia’s emerging economies. 4 and an agreement was reached in early October 2015, it still While the US Congress voted for the reauthorization faces a tough and lengthy approval process in the U.S.9; the of the US Export-Import Bank last October 2015 7 and in Obama administration has stated, Reuters reports, that it will mid-December 2015, finally approved reforms to the IMF work with the U.S. Congress to ensure the most appropriate shareholder quota, increasing shares by emerging markets such timing in getting a vote in early 2016 . 10 as China and India 8, Forbes has outlined that the U.S. will still Together with the New Development Bank being founded have to offer those things that are important to developing with other BRICs economies, China now has the $50-billion countries, not just important to U.S. (called “demand driven” AIIB, the $40-billion Silk Road Fund (or OBOR Fund), and development): 4 the $100-billion New Development Bank, founded in cooper-

52 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

非一样）的标准和措施，在这方面中国可能面临着巨大 增至原来三倍，员工人数增至400人。这些增加 的压力。《福布斯》指出，中国通过亚投行寻求多边经 的融资资本和员工应专注于非洲和亚洲业务。 济合作，实际上是承认与发达经济体合作的价值，因为 • 美国贸易发展署的预算和员工翻倍。该机构规模 发达国家的投资都盖上了“好管家印章”，已经得到广 相对较小，负责日益增长的美国出口业务，同时 泛认可了。4 也为发展中国家的经济增长提供支持。 • 日本和美国应该为亚洲开发银行寻找增资或特殊 对未来的启示 增资。亚洲开发银行最近将其贷款增加了40%， 这是一个积极的进展。但是，亚洲在未来十年内 无论如何，亚投行一定会面临种种挑战和成长的 的基础设施建设投资缺口预计高达8万亿美元。 痛苦。美国及其合作伙伴有机会帮助亚投行应对这些挑 亚洲开发银行和世界银行提供的资金总共不到 战，让这个刚刚成立的基础设施基金站稳脚跟，成为推 4000亿美元。而且还规定这部分资金必须覆盖一 动全球发展的积极参与者。美国提出的方法要取得成 系列的投资项目，但不包括基础设施建设。 效，也需要日本和其他盟友的协调行动。 • 重新审核亚洲开发银行、国际金融公司、美国进 出口银行、美国海外私人投资公司和世界银行的 好消息是，如果美国采取一些立法行动，提高美国 业务流程，包括限制支持煤炭、水利、石油、天 在现有多边开发银行(MDB)的领导权力，加上投入相对 然气和核能投资项目的隐性和显性政策。二十四 较小的资金，美国就能很好地有效地帮助亚投行，还能 国集团和二十国集团都对相关问题的毫无进展表 带来富有建设性的效果。 示失望。

两年前，亚投行还只是一个想法。它之所以能迅 近期发展情况 速成立，原因在于现有国际金融机构体系提供的帮助与 全球的发展需求存在很大的差距。全世界都在发展，中 美国没有加入亚投行。相反，奥巴马政府为亚洲十 国已经成为十几个国家的最大贸易伙伴，但现有国际金 一个国家提供了另一个选择：跨太平洋伙伴关系协议，但 融机构体系提供的帮助远不足以满足现实的需要。丹尼 是这项“下一代”贸易协议并不包括亚太地区最重要的贸 尔•若德（Daniel Runde）在《福布斯》撰文指出，有一 易伙伴中国。而中国也没有邀请美国加入区域全面经济伙 些主要来自美国的具体因素，导致全球产生了对新国际 伴关系（RCEP），这是由亚洲16个国家签署的自由贸易 金融机构的实际需求。4 协定，可以说是中国版的“跨太平洋伙伴关系协议”。

其中之一是美国的能源和电力政策削弱了美国满足 但是，即便是美国的盟友，例如澳大利亚和日本， 全球基础设施和能源需求的能力。世界银行、亚洲开发 也认为跨太平洋伙伴关系协议对其内部事务干涉太多。 银行和国际金融公司的援助标准极其严格，这些机构也 该协议不但要求降低关税，还涉及到知识产权、数据保 无法满足发展中国家目前提出的能源需求。4 护规则、企业管理、劳工和环保标准、金融法规等。

有人认为，亚投行和美国领导的跨太平洋伙伴关系 澳大利亚和新加坡、韩国、越南等许多亚洲经济体 协议（TPP）可以互为补充。近日签署的跨太平洋伙伴关 表示他们愿意加入中国倡议建立的组织（亚投行和“一带 系协议将确立下一代商业准则，也就是为加深经济一体 一路”），也愿意加入跨太平洋伙伴关系协议。6 跨太平 化提供“软件”。亚投行作为世界银行和亚洲开发银行 洋伙伴关系协议于2015年10月结束谈判并且达成协议，但 的补充，可以帮助亚洲新兴经济体融资兴建“硬件”， 是它在美国仍然面临一个艰难漫长的审批过程9。据路透 即基础设施。4 社报道，奥巴马政府表示将配合国会，确保能在2016年年 初找到最合适的时机就该协议进行投票。10 2015年10月，美国国会投票决定向美国进出口银行 重新颁发许可证。72015年12月中，美国国会终于通过了 加上中国与其他金砖国家成立的新开发银行，中 国际货币基金组织的股东份额改革。完成改革后，中国 国目前拥有500亿美元的亚投行，400亿美元的丝路基金 和印度等新兴市场的份额将会有所提高。8此外，《福布 （或“一带一路”基金），以及1000亿美元的新开发银 斯》认为美国还需要做到以下几点建议。这些建议不但 行。新开发银行是中国与印度、俄罗斯、巴西和南非合 对美国来说至关重要（称为“需求驱动”的发展），对 作建立的国际机构。此外，中国还有自己的开发银行， 于发展中国家来说也意义重大:4 即中国开发银行，拥有资金1000亿美元，以及中国进出 口银行。这些银行给亚洲和拉美国家提供的贷款额，已 • 长期授权美国海外私人投资公司，消除或进一步 经超过世界银行、亚洲开发银行和泛美开发银行等国际 放宽海外私人投资公司的碳排放限制，融资限额 金融机构。

53 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

ation with India, Russia, Brazil, and South Africa. And there strategy ever since President Xi Jinping first broached the “New are the individual Chinese development banks, too – the China Silk Road Economic Belt” idea in his speech in Kazakhstan on Development Bank, which has $100 billion in capital, and the September 7, 2013.11 Export Import Bank of China. These banks already give more The plan envisions an economic cooperation bloc from loans to Asia and Latin America than institutions like the World China through to the Mediterranean that revives the old Silk Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the Inter-American Road trading route. Bloomberg indicates that according to Development Bank. a map published on the website of the official Xinhua News Of course, this isn’t completely altruistic. China is hoping Agency in May 2014, the land-based Silk Road starts from Xi’an, that a good chunk of the infrastructure work will be done by stretching west through Lanzhou and Urumqi before running Chinese companies, to deal with its over-capacity problem in southwest across Central Asia, the Middle East and Europe. heavy equipment manufacturing and construction. The sea-based Maritime Silk Road goes through Guangdong We would like to think that these different efforts may be and Hainan en route to the Malacca Strait and Indian Ocean, complementary. As foreign policy expert David Dollar opines traversing the Horn of Africa before entering the Red Sea and in a paper in The Brookings Institute, a think tank: “The kind Mediterranean. Both roads end up in Venice.11 of infrastructure financed by the Chinese initiatives is the Guangdong in early November 2014 already hosted the in- “hardware” of trade and investment, which are necessary but augural international expo for the maritime Silk Road, with 42 not sufficient to deepen integration. TPP, on the other hand, countries participating.11 represents the “software“ of integration, reducing trade barriers, President Xi has also already ramped up efforts to sell his new opening up services for trade and investment, and harmonizing strategy overseas. One month after his Kazakhstan speech, when various regulatory barriers to trade.” 6 addressing the Indonesian parliament in Jakarta, he pitched “the Mr. Dollar observes that there could be “ a risk that the com- 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.” During state visits in 2014, peting initiatives of China and the United States will lead to he secured verbal commitments from three countries along the regional blocs and a disintegration of trade, but it is more likely routes -- Tajikistan, the Maldives and Sri Lanka, while both In- that Sino-American competition will lead to strengthened in- dia and Afghanistan have reportedly expressed interest. 11 stitutions and deeper integration throughout Asia-Pacific.” We The president has not hesitated to back up the plan with would like to think so too. 6 the appropriate funding – as of November 2014, media reports announced that China is planning a US$16.3 billion fund to fi- What The Other MDBs Are Saying: nance construction of infrastructure linking its markets to three continents along the New Silk Road route. 11. He also allocated More funding for infrastructure will help the poor, and US$50 billion in October to establish an Asian Infrastructure we are pleased to be working with China and others Investment Bank to lend money to build roads, railways and to help the AIIB hit the ground running. We view the other transport links in poorer parts of Asia. 12 AIIB as an important new partner that shares a com- Experts expound on the New Silk Road plan’s significance, mon goal: ending extreme poverty. The AIIB will join that this could mean “a shift in China’s strategic thought,” us and other development banks in addressing the huge says Zhang Yunling, director of the Institute of Asia-Pacific infrastructure needs that are critical to ending poverty, Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. To reducing inequalities and boosting shared prosperity. Bloomberg, Mr. Zhang added that: “The past three decades of Jim Yong Kim, World Bank president 5 China’s development have been focused on ‘absorbing foreign investment’ and the next step will be about the outflow of The Asian Development Bank is committed to work- Chinese development to its neighbors.” 11 ing closely and co-financing with theA IIB to address the vast infrastructure needs facing Asia by using our Yuan Inclusion in IMF’s SDR long experience and expertise. Takehiko Nakao, ADB president 5 On November 30, 2015, the IMF announced that China’s currency, the yuan, is to be included in the basket of currencies The “New Silk Road”: Background which make up the IMF’s Special Drawing Right, or SDR. On (This section “The New Silk Road” is incorporated from our 2015 October 1st, 2016, the IMF will then add the yuan to its SDR White Paper.) basket with a weighting of 10.92%, as the currency has “met all existing criteria.” The weighting of the other currencies in the The New Silk Road plan, comprising both a land-based path basket is 41.73% (USD), 30.93% (EUR), 8.33% (JPY) and and a maritime route, has been referred to as a Chinese national 8.09% (GBP). This is the first time in over 15 years that the list

54 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

当然，中国的举动也并非完全毫无私心。中国希望 新的陆上丝绸之路从西安开始向西延伸，穿过兰州和乌 大部分的基础设施建设项目由中国企业承担，以应对国 鲁木齐，然后向西南方向穿过中亚、中东地区，最后到 内重型制造业和建筑业的产能过剩问题。 达欧洲。新的海上丝绸之路则穿过广东和海南，经由马 六甲海峡进入印度洋，然后越过非洲之角，最后进入红 我们认为中美两国为促进贸易所做的努力虽然有 海和地中海。海陆两条丝绸之路的终点都是威尼斯。11 所不同，但他们是互为补充的。外交政策专家杜大伟 （David Dollar）通过美国智库布鲁金斯学会发表文章，就 2014年11月初，广东省已经举行了21世纪海上丝绸 该议题发表了看法。他认为，“由中国倡议融资建设的基 之路国际博览会，参展企业来自42个国家和地区。11 础设施，可以说是贸易和投资的‘硬件’，这是非常必要 的，但是还不足以促进经济一体化。另一方面，跨太平洋 习近平主席也不遗余力地向其他国家推广“新丝绸 伙伴关系协议则代表了经济一体化所需要的‘软件’，有 之路”计划。结束哈萨哈斯坦访问之后一个月，习近平 利于减少贸易壁垒，开放促进贸易和投资的服务业，缓和 主席访问印度尼西亚，在印尼首都雅加达向印尼国会演 阻碍贸易的各种政策障碍。” 6 讲时，他又提出与东盟国家合作建设“21世纪海上丝绸 之路”。2014年，习近平在其中亚南亚之行对四个丝绸 杜大伟先生指出，“中国和美国分别提出竞争性的 之路沿线国家进行国事访问，表达了共同建设“新丝绸 贸易协议，可能会形成区域贸易集团，导致贸易分崩离 之路”的愿望。塔吉克斯坦、马尔代夫和斯里兰卡已经 析。但是更可能的是，中美两国相互竞争将会加强国际 在口头上承诺参与建设，有报道称印度和阿富汗也对此 金融机构的运营管理，加深亚太地区经济一体化。”对 表示兴趣。11 此，我们也持有同样的看法。6 习近平主席对“新丝绸之路”计划的资金支持也毫 其他多边开发银行的评价 不迟疑。2014年11月，媒体报道称中国正计划投资163 亿美元，用于建设连接中国和三大洲新丝绸之路沿线国 对基础设施投入更多资金可以帮助低收入国家， 家的基础设施。112014年10月，他已经拨出500亿美元资 我们很高兴与中国及其他伙伴合作帮助亚投行快 金，用于建设亚洲基础设施投资银行，贷款给亚洲一些 速起步。我们认为亚投行是一个重要的新伙伴， 贫困地区修建道路、铁路以及其他交通要道。12 我们拥有共同的目标：消灭极端贫困。亚投行将 与世界银行以及其他开发银行一起解决庞大的基 很多专家对“新丝绸之路”建设计划的重要意义提 础设施需求，这对消除贫困，、减少不公、促进 出见解。中国社会科学院亚太研究所所长张蕴岭表示， 共同繁荣至关重要。 该计划意味着“中国政府战略思维的转移”。在接受彭 -世界银行行长金镛 5 博社访问时，张蕴岭说，“过去三十年以来中国政府的 发展重点一直是吸引外资流入，未来中国政府很可能将 亚洲开发银行将致力于和亚投行紧密合作，利 采取措施鼓励中国为周边国家的发展提供帮助。”11 用我们长期以来的经验和专业技能，共同为解 决亚洲庞大的基础设施需求筹集资金。 -亚洲开发银行行长中尾武彦 5 人民币纳入国际货币基金组织特别提款 权（SDR）

新丝绸之路 2015年11月30日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）宣布批 准中国货币人民币加入特别提款权（SDR）货币篮子。鉴 以下章节摘自《2015中国营商环境白皮书》 于人民币已经“符合现有所有标准”，2016年10月1日， 国际货币基金组织将会把人民币正式纳入特别提款权货币 2013年9月7日，习近平主席在访问哈萨克斯坦期间 篮子，权重为10.92%。特别提款权篮子其他货币的权重分 发表演讲，首次提出了打造“新丝绸之路经济带”的构 别是：美元占41.73％，欧元占30.93％，日元占8.33％， 想。后来中国构思的“新丝绸之路”计划，一直被认为 英镑占8.09％。这是十五年来特别提款权货币篮子首次出 是一项中国国家发展战略。该计划包含两个部分，一是 现变化。这次变动是国际货币基金组织执行董事会在审核 陆路，即“丝绸之路经济带”；二是海路，即“21世纪 当前特别提款权货币篮子之后做出的决定。13 海上丝绸之路”。11 特别提款权是国际货币基金组织于1969年创设的一 “新丝绸之路“计划旨在建立中国至地中海沿线经 种国际储备资产，用以弥补成员国官方储备不足。1999 济贸易合作区来复兴古代的商贸丝绸之路。彭博社报道 年，欧元满足国际货币基金组织的要求，取代德国马克 称，根据新华社官方网站在2014年5月发布的一份地图， 和法国法郎纳入特别提款权货币篮子，此后特别提款权

55 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

of currencies comprising the SDR has been altered. The change IMF’s decision is a “win-win” for both China and the world and was agreed by the IMF’s Executive Board following a regular acknowledges China’s achievements in economic development review of the currencies making up the SDR basket. 13 and reform, the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, The SDR is an international reserve asset created by the IMF PBOC said in a statement on its website. 15 in 1969 to supplement its member countries’ official reserves. The IMF staff ’s report to the Executive Board notes that Since 1999, when the euro replaced the Deutsche mark and since the last SDR review in 2010, whereby, Bloomberg notes, French franc, its value has been based on a basket of four curren- the yuan was actually rejected as a reserve currency, the use of cies: the U.S. dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen, and the British the yuan in international payments has risen substantially. In pound, that met the IMF’s inclusion criteria. The composition addition, yuan trading activity in foreign exchange markets and valuation of the SDR is typically reviewed every five years covering two of the three major trading time zones has increased to ensure it reflects the relative importance of currencies in the significantly, and can now accommodate transactions of the global trading and financial systems.14 magnitude involved in IMF operations. 15 It should be noted that inclusion in the SDR is very different The Wall Street Journal notes that the inclusion puts new from increasing China’s share in the IMF quota – an issue pressure on Beijing to change everything from how it manages which had long been pending in the US Congress and which, the yuan to how it communicates with investors and the world. Bloomberg reports, was finally approved by both Houses China’s pledges to loosen its tight grip on the currency’s value and and signed by President Obama in mid-December 2015. In open its financial system will come under new scrutiny. Inclusion a sign that IMF governance now provides more of a voice to would also put pressure on the central bank to offer the same emerging markets, China jumped to become the third-biggest degree of clarity and transparency that the U.S. Federal Reserve, IMF shareholder under the new IMF quota. The IMF’s quota the European Central Bank and other vital institutions strive for. represents the member country’s voice in the decision-making at the IMF and is closely linked to the country’s influence over Implications for China Reforms the IMF. 22 Wharton management professor Minyuan Zhao observes IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said: “The Exec- that the longer-term impact of the yuan inclusion as a reserve utive Board’s decision to include the RMB in the SDR basket is currency will depend on how China uses the opportunity, say- an important milestone in the integration of the Chinese econ- ing “Whether it is a positive or a negative in the long run de- omy into the global financial system. It is also a recognition of pends on how China acts. Will it take it as incentive to bring in the progress that the Chinese authorities have made in the past transparency and reform the financial system?”18 years in reforming China’s monetary and financial systems. The For China, the move is a validation of efforts over the past continuation and deepening of these efforts will bring about few years to liberalize financial markets and free up flows of a more robust international monetary and financial system, funds into and out of China’s capital markets. In this regard, which, in turn will support the growth and stability of China the IMF’s decision could strengthen the credibility of Beijing’s and the global economy.” 13 economic reformers against more conservative elements in the The most recent review by the IMF’s Executive Board con- Xi Jinping administration. cluded that China and its currency met the two criteria for in- Caixin analyzed what the decision means for the future of clusion in the basket: that the issuing country is among the larg- reform in China. Data from the IMF show that only 38 central est exporters in the world and that its currency is “freely usable.” banks have yuan-dominated holdings that total RMB 780 A currency is determined to be freely usable when it is widely billion, or 1.1% of total foreign reserves held by central banks used to make payments for international transactions and wide- around the world (versus 64% for the U.S. dollar and 21% for the ly traded in the principal exchange markets. 13 euro). Analysts around the world say many global investment The IMF Executive Board’s determination that the RMB is institutions will “quickly respond” to the IMF’s decision freely usable and its decision to include the RMB in the SDR and put yuan-denominated holdings in their portfolios, and basket both take effect on October 1, 2016.The review also ac- Standard Chartered Bank estimated that nearly USD 1 trillion knowledged recent steps taken by the Chinese authorities to will be invested in China’s bond market by the end of 2020. 19 grant full access for official reserve managers and their agents to However, many debate on the future of the currency’s the onshore fixed-income and foreign exchange markets, as well international status, with a consensus emerging that this as steps to enhance data disclosure.13 depends on the development of financial markets in China and The decision to include the yuan in the makeup of the progress in reforming the exchange and interest rate regimes: SDR basket reflects major shifts in the global economy, and is Without financial reforms and further opening up, one analyst a recognition of China’s progress over the last few decades in from Goldman Sachs said China’s efforts to push for greater moving toward a more open and market-based economy. The adoption of the yuan in international payments and trade

56 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

的价值根据由美元、欧元、日元和英镑四种货币组成的 货币基金组织业务所要求的交易幅度。另外，彭博社指 货币篮子决定，这四种货币均符合国际货币基金组织的 出，特别提款权2010年的审议实际上拒绝了人民币加入 标准。特别提款权的货币构成和价值通常每五年审议一 一篮子储备货币。15 次，以确保篮子反映各货币在全球贸易和金融体系中的 相对重要性。14 《华尔街日报》认为，人民币纳入特别提款权会给 中国政府带来新的改革压力，从人民币汇率管理，到政 应该看到，人民币纳入特殊提款权与提高中国在国 府与投资者和世界的沟通，中国都不得不作出改变。中 际货币基金组织的份额并不相同。国际货币基金组织份 国放宽人民币币值管制、对外开放金融市场的承诺将会 额改革议题在美国国会搁置已久。根据彭博社报道，美 受到新的监督。纳入特别提款权也会对央行带来压力， 国两院终于在2015年12月中批准了国际货币基金组织份 中国央行必须达到与美国联邦储备系统、欧洲央行和其 额改革方案并由奥巴马总统当日签署。这意味着新兴市 他重要国际金融机构同样的清晰度和透明度。 场在国际货币基金组织管理上的话语权有所提升。在新 的份额结构下，中国跃升成为国际货币基金组织第三大 对中国改革的影响 成员国。成员国在国际货币基金组织的份额代表该国在 决策过程中的话语权，与该成员国在国际货币基金组织 沃顿商学院管理学教授赵敏渊认为，人民币纳入特 的影响力密切相关。22 别提款权带来的长期影响，取决于中国将如何利用这个 机会。他说，“长期来说，影响的好坏要看中国会采取 国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德表 什么行动。中国会借此契机增加透明度，改革金融制度 示，“执行董事会关于将人民币纳入特别提款权货币篮 吗？”18 子的决定，是中国经济融入全球金融体系的一个重要里 程碑，也是对中国在过去多年来在改革其货币和金融体 在过去几年里，中国开放金融市场，促进流动资金 系方面取得的成就的认可。中国在货币和金融改革的持 在中国资本市场的自由进出。人民币纳入特别提款权就 续推进和深化将推动建立一个更加充满活力的国际货币 是这些工作所取得的成果。从这方面看，国际货币基金 和金融体系，这个体系也会促进中国和全球经济的发展 组织的决定，让习近平政府中的改革派拥有了比保守势 和稳定。”13 力更强大的公信力。

国际货币基金组织执行董事会最近的一次审议认 财新网分析了该决定对中国未来的改革有何意义。 为，中国及其货币已经满足了纳入特别提款权货币篮子 国际货币基金组织的数据显示，目前只有38个国家和地 的两个条件：一是货币发行国的出口贸易规模在世界名 区的中央银行宣布持有人民币资产，总额约为7800亿元 列前茅；二是货币可“自由使用”。如果货币广泛用于 人民币，约占目前全球官方外汇储备约1.1%（美元占比 国际交易支付，而且在主要外汇市场上广泛交易，该货 约为64%，欧元占比为21%）全球分析人士表示，许多国 币就可认为是“可自由使用”货币。13 际投资机构将会对国际货币基金组织的决定“迅速作出 反应”，将人民币产品加入他们的资产配置组合中。渣 国际货币基金组织执行董事会认为人民币可自由使 打银行预计，到2020年底，可能有约近1万亿美元的资金 用，决定将人民币纳入特别提款权货币篮子，于2016年 投资于中国的在岸债券市场。19 10月1日正式生效。本次审议也认可中国政府近期采取的 一系列措施，包括向官方储备管理者及其代理机构全面 然而，对于人民币未来的国际地位，各方仍然存在 开放在岸固定收益和外汇市场，并且以更高标准公布相 很多争议，目前达成的共识是，这取决于中国金融市场 关数据。13 的发展状况以及中国改革汇率和利率形成机制所取得的 进展。一位来自高盛的经济学家表示，如果不进行金融 将人民币纳入特别提款权篮子货币的决定反映了 体系的改革和进一步开放，中国推动人民币在国际支付 全球经济格局的重要转变，也是对中国过去几十年发展 和贸易扩大使用，最后的结果可能会适得其反，因为人 市场经济所取得的进步的认可。中国人民银行（中国央 民币会暴露于更多风险之中。据财新网报道，人民银行 行）在其网站发布声明表示，国际货币基金组织的决 货币政策二司副司长周诚君认为，决定将人民币纳入特 定，有利于中国和世界的双赢决定，也是对中国经济发 别提款权就是承认人民币的国际货币地位，“但是，这 展和改革开放成果的肯定。15 也意味着中国要以更高的国际标准调整中国金融体系， 进一步推动金融改革和金融市场双向开放。” 国际货币基金组织工作人员向执行董事会递交的 分析报告称，自2010年对特别提款权货币篮子进行评估 据新华网2015年12月3日报道，中国的内阁国务院 以来，人民币国际使用大幅增长。此外，人民币交易量 对国际货币基金组织决定将人民币纳入特别提款权货币 在三大交易时区中的两个显著增加，现在足以容纳国际 篮子公开表示欢迎，并表示这个决定是“进一步推进金

57 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

would backfire because the currency would be exposed to more also encourage China to accelerate its financial sector reforms – risks. Caixin reports that policy head Zhou Chengjun at the a move which would be welcomed by foreign investors. People’s Bank of China said the decision simultaneously marks the recognition of the yuan as an international currency, “but it also means China is obliged to align its financial system with international standards via further reforms of the financial market and greater opening up.” Xinhua reports that on December 3, 2015, China’s Cabinet, the State Council, publicly welcomed the IMF decision to include the yuan in its Special Drawing Rights basket, dubbing it “an opportunity for further financial reform and opening- up.” In an executive meeting of the State Council presided over by Premier Li Keqiang, the cabinet reiterated that China will stick to a managed, floating exchange rate mechanism, keep the currency stable at a reasonable level and make it convertible under the capital account “in an orderly manner.” In a released statement, the council called the IMF’s decision a “recognition of China’s reform and opening-up achievements, and will enable China to be more engaged in global economic governance.” 20 The State Council’s announcement was followed shortly by a statement from Xing Yujing, director general of the No. 2 monetary policy department of the People’s Bank of China who said the inclusion of the yuan into the IMF global reserve currencies basket is the starting point for deeper financial reforms, which include a greater liberalization of its capital account. She said the yuan’s admission into the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket would help improve price discoverability for the currency. However, she noted that the yuan lagged behind other major currencies in terms of convertibility on the capital account and that China still needed to further open up its financial markets . 21 While the yuan is already convertible under China’s current account, the broadest measure of trade in goods and services, the capital account, which covers portfolio investment and borrowing, is still subject to restrictions as Beijing worries about abrupt capital flight and hot-money inflows.

US and Global Market Implications Experts say that even though President Xi Jinping may have been quoted in mid-November 2015 as saying that the yuan’s new status “will improve the international monetary system and safeguard global financial stability”16 , the IMF decision may have limited market impact in a world dominated by the U.S. dollar. Still, though largely perceived as a symbolic reflection of China’s rising economic power, the decision may have a bigger geopolitical impact in providing China a voice in internation- al monetary decisions; in possibly enabling China to create a money transfer system to compete with the widely used “Swift” system; and in likely limiting the dollar’s use in enforcing po- litical sanctions. Most importantly, the yuan’s new status could

58 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

融体系改革开放的契机。”李克强总理主持召开国务 院常务会议，会议重申，中国将坚持实行有管理的浮动 汇率制度，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳 定，“有序实现”人民币资本项目可兑换。在会后发布 的一份文件里，国务院指出，国际货币基金组织的决定 是“对中国改革开放成就的认可，有利于促进中国在更 深层次和更广领域参与全球经济治理。”20

国务院的文件发布之后，中国人民银行货币政策二 司司长邢毓静也接着发表了讲话。她认为，人民币纳入 国际货币基金组织特别提款权储备是中国未来进一步深 化金融改革的起点，其中包括进一步开放资本项目。她 说，人民币纳入特别提款权货币篮子将有利于进一步发 现汇率的价格。然而，她也指出，人民币在资本项目可 兑换上落后于其他主要国家货币，中国需要进一步开放 金融市场。21

虽然中国已经实现了人民币经常项目的可兑换，但 是评估商品和服务贸易的最广泛指标是资本项目，包括 证券投资和借贷。由于担心会突然出现资本外逃和热钱 流入，中国现在仍然限制人民币资本项目的兑换。

对美国和全球市场的影响

虽然习近平主席在11月中访问美国时表示，人民币 纳入特别提款权“将有利于完善国际货币系统，有助维护 全球金融稳定”，但是专家认为国际货币基金组织的决定 对以美元为主导的世界经济造成的影响可能相当有限。

普遍认为，人民币纳入特别提款权只是一种象征， 体现了中国经济实力的上升。但是，这一决定的地缘 政治意义可能更大，它让中国在国际货币决策中拥有 更大的话语权，也许能促使中国创造出一套新的货币 支付系统，与目前广泛使用的环球银行金融电信协会 （SWIFT）支付系统相抗衡，也可能会限制美元在政治 制裁中的使用。最重要的是，人民币的新地位也会鼓励 中国加快金融行业改革，这一举动也是外国投资者乐见 其成的。

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Works Cited 12 “The New Silk Road: Stretching the threads.”The Economist. November 29, 2014. http://www.economist.com/news/chi- 1 Jake Maxwell Watts. “Up To 20 Countries Waiting To Join Chi- na/21635061-impoverished-south-west-china-seeks-become- na-Led AIIB”. Wall Street Journal. September 19, 2015. http:// economic-hub-stretching-threads www.wsj.com/articles/up-to-20-countries-waiting-to-join-china- led-aiib-president-designate-says-1442666572 13 “Chinese Renminbi to Be Included in IMF’s Special Drawing Right Basket.” IMF Survey. December 1, 2015. http://www.imf. 2 Zhiqun Zhu. “China’s AIIB and OBOR: Ambitions and Chal- org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2015/NEW120115A.htm lenges”. The Diplomat. October 9, 2015. http://thediplomat. com/2015/10/chinas-aiib-and-obor-ambitions-and-challenges/ 14 “Fact Sheet: Special Drawing Right (SDR). IMF. November 30, 2015.http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/sdr.htm 3 Veronique Salze-Lozac’h. “To Be Or Not To Be Part of AIIB”. The Asia Foundation. July 22, 2015. http://asiafoundation.org/in- 15 Andrew Mayeda. “IMF Approves Reserve-Currency Status for asia/2015/07/22/to-be-or-not-to-be-part-of-aiib/ China’s Yuan.” Bloomberg. December 1, 2015. http://www. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-30/imf-backs-yuan-in-re- 4 Daniel Runde. “AIIB and US Development Leadership: A Path serve-currency-club-after-rejection-in-2010 Forward”. Forbes. April 30, 2015. http://www.forbes.com/sites/ danielrunde/2015/04/30/aiib-us-development-leadership/ 16 Keith Bradsher. “China’s Renminbi Is Approved by I.M.F. as a Main World Currency.” New York Times. November 30, 2015. 5 Mike Bastin. “AIIB Investment Will Benefit The West”. Telegraph. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/01/business/international/ July 26, 2015. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sponsored/china-watch/ china-renminbi-reserve-currency.html?_r=0 business/11763107/aiib-investment-will-benefit-the-west.html 17 Lingling Wei. “IMF Expected to Name China’s Yuan as Reserve 6 David Dollar. “China’s Rise as a Regional and Global Power: AIIB Currency.” Wall Street Journal. “November 29, 2015. http://www. and OBOR”. Summer 2015. http://www.brookings.edu/research/ wsj.com/articles/imf-expected-to-name-chinas-yuan-a-reserve- papers/2015/07/china-regional-global-power-dollar currency-1448769634

7 Nick Timiraos. “House Votes to Reauthorize US Export-Import 18 “What The IMF’s Yuan Decision Will Mean for China and Glob- Bank.” Wall Street Journal. October 27, 2015. http://www.wsj. al Markets.” Knowledge at Wharton. December 2, 2015. http:// com/articles/house-votes-to-reauthorize-u-s-export-import- knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/what-the-imfs-yuan-deci- bank-1445986019 sion-will-mean-for-china-and-global-markets/

8 Andrew Mayeda. “Congress Approves IMF Change in Favor of 19 Wang Liwei. “Closer Look: IMF’s Decision on Yuan Means More Emerging Markets.” Bloomberg. December 20, 2015. http://www. Reforms for China.” Caixin. December 1, 2015. http://english. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-18/congress-approves- caixin.com/2015-12-01/100880468.html imf-changes-giving-emerging-markets-more-sway 20 Xinhua. “China Vows Deeper Financial Reform”. Shanghai Dai- 9 Daniel Drezner. “Will Congress Approve The Trans-Pacific Partner- ly. December 3, 2015. http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/ ship?” Washington Post. October 6, 2015. https://www.washing- finance/China-vows-deeper-financial-reform/shdaily.shtml tonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/10/06/will-congress-ap- prove-the-trans-pacific-partnership/ 21 “China’s Entry into IMF’s Special Drawing Rights Basket to Usher in Deeper Reforms.” South China Morning Post. December 11, 10 Krista Hughes. “White House to Work with Congress on TPP 2015. http://www.scmp.com/news/china/money-wealth/arti- Vote Timing.” Reuters. November 12, 2015. http://www.reuters. cle/1886827/chinese-yuans-entry-imfs-special-drawing-rights- com/article/us-trade-tpp-usa-idUSKCN0T12JR20151112 basket-usher

11 Ting Shi and Steven Yang. “China Planning $16.3 Billion Fund 22 Andrew Mayeda. “Congress Approves IMF Change in Favor of for ‘New Silk Road’”. Bloomberg. November 5, 2014. http://www. Emerging Markets.” Bloomberg. December 20, 2015. http://www. bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-04/china-said-to-plan-16-3-bil- bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-18/congress-approves- lion-fund-to-revive-silk-road.html imf-changes-giving-emerging-markets-more-sway

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61 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

1.5 Pilot Free Trade Zones

n April 2015, China released details regarding the es- Shanghai FTZ, an indication that there will be greater openness Itablishment of pilot free trade zones (FTZ) in Guangdong, and transparency. 20 Tianjin and Fujian as well as long-awaited plans to further re- form and open up the Shanghai FTZ. The State Council said Recent Developments in a statement that “the plan is a crucial step for the country to promote reform and opening up as well as boost trade and In a move to liberalize its capital account after the yuan was facilitate investment.” 20 admitted to the IMF’s reserve basket, China announced in Each of the three new FTZs will make full use of its geo- December 2015, that it will allow limited convertibility of the graphic location. According to Wang Shouwen, assistant min- yuan in three free trade zones (FTZ) in Guangdong, Fujian and ister of commerce, the Guangdong FTZ aims to deepen eco- Tianjin. 21 nomic cooperation between the mainland and Hong Kong and In new documents outlining plans to support FTZs, the Macao, the Tianjin FTZ is part of a push to coordinate devel- People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said it was seeking to deep- opment of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, while the Fujian en reforms of foreign exchange management and to assist firms FTZ is focused on deepening economic cooperation between looking to borrow yuan overseas. Onshore institutions that are the mainland and Taiwan. According to the plan, the Guang- registered and that do not fall into negative lists each will be dong FTZ will consist of three parts in the cities of Guangzhou, able to freely convert up to $10 million worth of yuan annu- Shenzhen and Zhuhai while the Fujian FTZ will cover three ally, as part of its reforms of cross-border currency trade. Mul- areas in Xiamen, Fuzhou and Pingtan, a new industrial park tinational companies (MNC) based in these FTZs also will be targeting investment from Taiwan. 20 allowed to do cross-border two-way cash pooling within a cor- The country plans to spend three to five years in developing porate group, the central bank said. 21 the three FTZs. Mr. Wang said the three FTZs will be launched Cash pooling helps enhance multinational companies’ cap- soon, but did not give a specific timeline. 20 ital efficiency and enables greater visibility, control and flexibil- The State Council statement said the country will use the ity in managing their onshore and offshore yuan-denominated FTZs to test a “negative list” approach, which specifies invest- fund flows. ment sectors off-limits to foreign investors. The approach will Earlier, in November 2015, Premier Li Keqiang declared allow foreign investors access to the same regulation rules for that the free trade account reform currently being tested in the new investment as domestic firms, as long as the business is not China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone as of June last year, that on the “negative list.” Under the “negative list”, FTZ foreign allows businesses to conduct easier cross-border transactions investments will be prohibited in sectors such as non-ferrous could be expanded when conditions mature, in a move to push metal mining, air traffic control systems management, postal for bolder financial reforms in a risk-controlled environment. enterprises and production of radio and television programs. Calling the free trade account system “an important measure to Foreign investments are restricted to joint ventures with domes- leverage both offshore and onshore markets,” Li went on to say tic companies in sectors such as oil and natural gas exploration the trial could be introduced to other places when conditions and development, general-purpose airplane design, manufac- were right. He said: “Economic statistics show that the FTZs ture and maintenance as well as rare earths smelting, according are the trailblazers of China’s reforms.” 22 to the list. 20 The list also maintained the existing 49 percent cap for for- Shanghai FTZ: Background eign companies investing in securities business joint ventures and restricted foreign investments in air cargo operations, stat- (This section “Shanghai FTZ” was incorporated from our 2015 ing that air cargo operations had to be controlled by a Chinese White Paper.) party and a single foreign investor could not hold more than 25 percent stake. The list, effective in May, will be applied to the At the end of 2009, the Shanghai Free Trade Zones Admin- four FTZs. 20 istration was established and since then, the organization has Wang Shouwen said the new FTZ “negative list” detailed a been overseeing three free trade zones in Shanghai’s east coast, total of 122 items, 17 less than a 2014 list put in place for the including Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone, Yangshan Free Trade

62 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

1.5 自由贸易试验区

2015年4月，中国国务院印发关于建立广东、天津和 近期发展情况 福建自由贸易试验区（自贸试验区）的政策文件，迟迟 未出台的进一步深化中国（上海）自由贸易试验区改革 在人民币获准加入国际货币基金组织储备货币篮子 开放方案也同时发布。国务院的文件称，“该方案是国 后，为了开放人民币资本项目，中国于2015年12月发布 家为全面深化改革和扩大开放，促进贸易和投资便利化 通知，在广东、福建、天津三大自贸试验区内允许限额 20 的一项重要举措。” 内人民币资本项目可兑换。21

三个新设自贸试验区将充分利用各自的地理位置优 中国人民银行近期出台了关于支持三大自贸试验区 势。中国商务部副部长王受文称，广东自贸试验区立足 建设的指导意见，提出深化外汇管理改革，支持自贸试验 于推动内地与香港、澳门地区经济深度合作，天津自贸 区内企业从境外借入人民币资金。在自贸试验区内注册 试验区立足于推动北京、天津、河北三地协同发展，而 的、负面清单外的境内机构，每个机构每自然年可自由兑 福建自贸试验区立足于深化大陆与台湾两地经济合作。 换等值1000万美元的资本项目，这是人民银行改革货币跨 根据该方案，广东自贸试验区由三个片区组成，分别位 境交易的举措之一。此外，人民银行允许自贸试验区内跨 于广州、深圳和珠海，福建自贸试验区也涵盖位于厦 国企业开展集团内跨境双向人民币资金池业务。21 门、福州和平潭的三个片区，组合成为一园多区，主要 20 任务是吸引台商投资。 设立资金池有助于跨国企业提高资金使用效率，使 企业在岸和离岸人民币基金流通的管理上拥有更大的能 中国政府计划在三到五年内发展三个自贸试验区。 见度、控制力和灵活性。 据王受文介绍，三个自贸试验区将很快挂牌，但是他并 20 未说明具体时间表。 此前，国务院总理李克强曾在2015年11月讲话时 称，自由贸易账户改革自去年六月起在上海自贸试验区 根据中国国务院的通知，中国将通过建设三个自贸 实施，区内企业进行跨境交易更加方便，目前改革已经 试验区试行外商投资负面清单模式，该模式明确规定禁止 取得了比较成熟的经验，可以推广到条件成熟的地区。 外商投资的领域。只要外商投资的行业不在负面清单之 这是中国在风险可控的环境里推进金融改革的一项重要 列，他们需要遵守的法律法规与中国内地企业一致。在负 措施。他表示，自由贸易账户改革是“更好利用在岸和 面清单模式下，自贸试验区内外商投资禁止进入有色金属 离岸两个市场的重要举措”，而且改革试点要在有条件 开采、空中交通管制系统、邮政服务、广播和电视节目制 的地方适时推广。他说，“从经济数据看，自贸试验区 作等行业。根据负面清单，外国投资者仅限于以与中国内 是中国深化改革的挖掘机。”22 地企业合资的形式投资石油和天然气勘探与开发，通用飞 机设计、制造与维修，以及稀土冶炼等行业。20 上海自由贸易试验区：背景 负面清单保留了对外商投资证券公司的限制，外资 在证券合资企业的投资比例不得超过49%，并限制外商对 以下章节摘自《2015中国营商环境白皮书》 公共航空运输业的投资，规定公共航空运输企业必须由 中方控股，单一外国投资者投资比例不得超过25%。该负 2009年年底，上海综合保税区管委会正式成立。自 面清单于2015年5月生效，适用于四个自贸试验区。20 此之后，上海综合保税区负责管理上海东部的三个保税 区，包括外高桥保税区、洋山保税港区和上海浦东机场综 王受文表示，新的自贸试验区负面清单详细划分了 合保税区，覆盖面积达到1210.4平方公里。这就是中国（ 122项特别管理措施，比2014年的上海自贸试验区负面清 上海）自由贸易试验区的前身。两年之后，上海市政府在 单减少了17项，这也说明自贸试验区将会有更高的开放 2011年向国家有关部门提交了在上海综合保税区设立自由 度和透明度。20 贸易园区的申请。国务院总理李克强十分支持上海建立自 由贸易试验区，使之成为推进改革和提高开放型经济水平 的“试验田”，打造中国经济“升级版”。2013年3月，

63 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

Port Area and Shanghai Pudong Airport Free Trade Zone, more opportunities for foreign investment.9 Shanghai Party covering 1,210.4 square kilometers of land. This was the pre- chief Han Zheng told Caixin that the Shanghai Free Trade decessor of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. Two Zone’s crucial reform has been “to transform the government’s years later, in 2011, the Shanghai government applied to build role”, adding that “the most important task now involves a free trade zone inside the Shanghai Free Trade Zones. In reforming the administrative review system.”9 March 2013, Premier Li had visited the Waigaoqiao free trade Xinhua quotes Han Zheng, Shanghai branch secretary of zone, and encouraged the setting up of a free trade pilot zone China’s Communist Party, as stating that the success of the in Shanghai. By May, the plan was officially sent to the central SFTZ is its replicability – the mechanisms which can be copied government to approve. The plan was first announced on July and promoted on a national scale. Mr. Han said: “ The FTZ 3rd that year by the State Council who had approved the plan is a testing ground for all of China, not our private plot. New and was personally endorsed by Premier Li Keqiang who said he measures here should be applicable elsewhere.” He declared that wanted to make the zone a snapshot of how China can upgrade these new measures reflect China’s intent to continue opening its economic structure.1 up and deepen reform, saying, “It is not just for local develop- The Shanghai FTZ opened to great fanfare and high ex- ment.” He also added that a “power list” within the next two pectations on September 29, 2013. Backed by Premier Li, the or three years to “increase transparency” is being considered.17 Shanghai FTZ was intended “to provide a space for the govern- What do the features of the SFTZ mean for foreign ment to experiment with reforms and provide companies with investors? Forbes enumerates: more freedoms in investment and how they conduct business.” According to the American Chamber of Commerce in Shang- • The full convertibility of the yuan. Though the State hai, American businesses in China were “initially very optimis- Administration of Foreign Exchange announced in tic about the FTZ and the prospects for potential market access January 2011 that the currency would be fully convert- openings, financial sector deregulation and improvements in ible by 2016, the SFTZ “not only accelerates the time- trade facilitation.” 2 table but helps put it in action on the global market.” 13 As of September 15, 2014, some 12,226 companies have • Foreign companies are already allowed to invest freely registered in the SFTZ, including approximately 1,677 foreign in banks—with reduced transaction costs for firms to firms, many from Hong Kong and Macau. Despite this, howev- create more efficient trading. 13 er, experts state that only 10 percent are engaged in any taxable • Even before the free-trade zone opened, the value of activity.2 Newly registered foreign businesses, excluding those real estate skyrocketed in the surrounding areas; there from Hong Kong, account for only about 5 % of the total at are no more limits on the foreign percentage of joint the SFTZ. Foreign trade in the Shanghai FTZ reached 747.5 construction projects with Chinese developers within billion yuan (US$121.7 billion) in its first year of operation.11 the SFTZ.13 The Shanghai FTZ marked the first time that the Chinese • China has started trading gold internationally within government followed a “Negative List” approach in supervis- the SFTZ starting in the final quarter of 2014. The ing investments. In the zone, foreign investors may participate newly lifted restrictions are already having an effect; in any activities or investments that are not on the negative list Singapore is introducing a physical gold contract with to the same extent as Chinese domestic investors. Previously, China. 13 China had delineated areas for foreign investment and Chinese regulators acted as “gatekeepers.”2 Launched a day ahead of the October 1 National Day hol- The concept is hardly new. Trade zones have been around iday in 2013, the SFTZ had earlier been tipped to be the test- since the early days of Deng Xiaoping’s reforms, when China’s ing ground for liberalizing interest rates, now subject to central first special economic zones, notably in Shenzhen, Guangdong, bank guidelines, and contribute to the longer-term goal of were created — the strategy was, Wall Street Journal observes, opening the capital account, which covers investments. How- “start small in a manageable laboratory and expand once you’re ever, the Wall Street Journal was quick to point out that these sure the results won’t prove dangerous.” 10 reforms got no specific mention on opening day. According So what does Beijing want from a free trade zone? According to an official statement, financial experiments would proceed to the Framework Plan for the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, the “as conditions allowed” and “risks would be controlled”. Rules main goals are to “expedite the functional transformation of would be put in place over a three-year period. The opening government, explore administrative innovation, stimulate day’s no-show by Premier Li, a key supporter of the SFTZ, sent trading and investment facilitation, and accumulate experience “a message of top-level uncertainty” about the SFTZ. 10 on achieving a more open Chinese economy.” In short, main A “negative list” running to 10 pages with more than 200 goals seem to include opening up the service sector and allowing restrictions was later announced. Those included limits on in-

64 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

李克强总理在上海调研期间考察了外高桥保税区，并表示 海的制度创新成果应该能推广到其他地方。”他宣称上海 鼓励上海建立一个自由贸易试验区。到了5月份，上海正 的制度创新成果体现了中国继续扩大开放和深化改革的意 式把试点方案上报中央政府审批。2013年7月3日，在获得 图，“并不是仅为地方发展服务。”他还补充说，目前正 国务院审议通过后，《中国（上海）自由贸易试验区总体 在考虑在未来两到三年内出台一份“权力清单”，以增 方案》正式对外公布。1 加“公开透明度”。17

2013年9月29日，带着各方期望，中国（上海）自由 上海自由贸易试验区的这些特点对外国投资者来说 贸易试验区大张旗鼓，正式成立。在李克强总理的支持 意味着什么呢？对此，福布斯作了详细的介绍：13 下，上海自由贸易试验区将成为“政府经济改革的试验 田，并为企业投资和经营提供更多自由”。上海美国商 • 人民币资本项目可兑换。虽然中国国家外汇管理 会称，美国在华企业“非常看好自由贸易试验区，并且 局在2011年1月宣布，人民币将在2016年实现自 对扩大市场准入、金融业放松管制和提高贸易便利化的 由兑换，上海自由贸易试验区“不但加快人民币 前景表示乐观”。2 资本项目自由兑换，而且推动人民币在国际市场 自由交易”。 截止至2014年9月15日，上海自由贸易试验区已经有 • 外国企业允许自由投资银行业，这样企业就能够 12226家注册企业，其中有1677家是外资企业，很多来自 降低交易成本，提高交易效率。13 香港和台湾。然而，有专家指出，虽然注册公司数量众 • 在上海自由贸易试验区挂牌之前，周边房地产价 多，但是有过应税行为的企业只占总数百分之十。2如果 格飙升；挂牌之后，外国投资者与中国发展商在 不包括来自香港的企业，在试验区内注册的外资企业不 上海自由贸易试验区内共同开发房地产项目，外 到总数的5%。在正式挂牌一年内，上海自由贸易试验区 国投资者的控股比例不再受到限制。13 创造的累计进出口额达到7475亿元人民币（约为1217亿 • 在2014年第四季度，中国在上海自由贸易试验区 美元）。11 正式启动上海黄金交易所黄金国际板。本次放开 黄金管制已经初见成效；新加坡已经率先推出实 在上海自由贸易试验区，中国政府首次使用“负面 物黄金合约。13 清单”模式监管投资。在试验区内，外国投资者与中国国 内投资者一样，可以参与负面清单之外所有行业的经营和 上海自由贸易试验区在2013年国庆节假期之前挂 投资活动。在此之前，中国政府划定了允许外商投资的行 牌，曾被认为是中国人民币汇率自由化的试验田，如今 业，中国的监管机构则扮演着“看门人”的角色。2 人民币汇率仍然取决于中国央行的指导方针。普遍认 为，上海自由贸易试验区将有助于实现资本项目开放 自由贸易试验区的概念并不新鲜。早在邓小平提 的长期目标，开放投资也属于其中。然而，《华尔街日 出改革开放之初，中国就开始设想建立贸易试验区，并 报》迅速指出，这些改革方案并没有具体说明开始的时 在广东省深圳市设立了第一个经济特区。据《华尔街日 间。官方的公告称，“在条件成熟，风险可控的时候” 报》分析，中国采取的策略是“在可以控制的试验区内 会进行金融改革试验，改革的具体规则将会在三年内出 开始小规模的改革，确认结果不会导致危险之后，再扩 台。国务院总理李克强是上海自由贸易试验区的重要支 大到更大的范围。”10 持者，但是他并未出席挂牌仪式，这似乎是暗示“中国 高层领导人对上海自由贸易试验区仍然存在怀疑。”10 那么，中国政府希望从自由贸易试验区中得到什么 呢？根据《上海自由贸易园区建设总体方案》，上海自 随后，政府公布了一份“负面清单”。这份清单长 由贸易试验区的主要目标是“加快转变政府职能，探索 达10页，共有200多项特别管理措施，其中包括针对汽 行政管理创新，促进贸易和投资便利，积累可推广的经 车、银行、保险、电信、广播电视、电影院、电影和电 验，带动促进全国各地区共同发展，使中国经济更加开 视制作等行业的投资限制，以及禁止外国投资者投资新 放。”简而言之，上海自由贸易试验区将会推进服务业 闻网站和网络游戏运营服务10。2014年7月，上海市政 开放，为外国投资者提供更多机会。9上海市党委书记韩 府公布了一份升级版的自贸区“负面清单”，具体管理 正在接受《财新》杂志访问时说，上海自由贸易试验区 措施从190项缩减至139项，被广泛誉为是“一次重大突 最关键的改革是“促进政府职能的转变”，并表示“目 破”3。 前最重要的任务是推进行政审批制度改革。”9 协力管理咨询有限公司对修订后的负面清单进行了 新华网援引上海市委书记韩正的讲话，指出上海自 全面的分析，发现外国投资者有更大的理由感到欢欣鼓 由贸易试验区的成功在于其制度的可复制性——­ 创新的 舞5。总的来说，清单的修订主要集中在（C）制造业和 制度可以在全国范围内复制和推广。韩正说，“上海自 （G）交通运输、仓储和邮政业，部分集中在（F）批发 由贸易试验区是国家的试验田，不是地方的自留地。上 和零售业。在修订版负面清单出台后，金融行业得到较

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vestments in auto, banking, insurance, telecommunications and and deepen reforms, and stated that foreign and domestic com- broadcasting as well as cinema, film and TV production. Invest- panies should be treated equally.2 ment in news portals and online gaming would be banned. 10 Financial analysts say hints of positive change are appear- In July 2014, the Shanghai municipality unveiled an upgraded ing, in particular ways to move money into and out of China version of the zone’s “negative list” with the number of items on using business entities registered in the zone. The adjustments the list cut from 190 to 139, hailed as “a major breakthrough.” 3 are highly technical but do suggest efforts to introduce a more A thorough analysis of the changes to the revised negative market-oriented currency-exchange policy.11 list, as conducted by Dezan Shira & Associates, reveals greater Measures such as the establishment of Free Trade Accounts cause for celebration.5 Overall, the majority of these changes (FTA) which will allow companies registered in the FTZ to are concentrated in the categories of (C) Manufacturing and conduct cross-border transfers of foreign currency and RMB (G) Transportation, Warehousing, and Postal Services, and to free from existing restrictions, cash pooling of RMB accounts a lesser extent (F) Wholesale & Retail. The financial industry via a consolidated account, elimination of the SAFE approval received a strong boost in the revisions, with foreign investment requirement for overseas investments under US$300 million, now freely permitted into investment banks, financial com- streamlined customs and CIQ clearance procedures, and the panies, trust companies, and currency brokerage companies. establishment of a Shanghai International Arbitration Court Terms governing investment into China’s booming healthcare aims to provide fairer dispute resolutions are examples of the industry were also revised, including abolition of the RMB 20 tangible benefits to those in the FTZ. 2 million minimum investment and maximum operation period The most successful reforms have been rolled out quickly of 20 years for medical institutions.5 The cybercafé industry was nationwide, increasing the impact of the reforms. For example, liberalized, along with a larger trend of relaxed restrictions on Customs recently announced that it would roll out nationally the entertainment industry in the FTZ where previously Chi- 14 Customs measures launched in the FTZ. The measures sim- na’s twelve-year ban on video game consoles was lifted. Investors plified the efficiency of customs clearance procedures, boosting from Hong Kong and Macau were granted several preferential trade volume in the zone and improving the overall business en- policies by the revised Negative List including freer investment vironment. In the financial sector, cancellation of the minimum into the construction and operation of movie theaters, as well as capital requirement was first relaxed in the FTZ and rolled a wide range of aviation transport ground-based services.5 out nationally in March 2014. Elimination of government-de- During President Xi Jinping’s first visit to the SFTZ in May termined interest rates on forex accounts under US$3 million 2014, he delivered a cautious endorsement. According to Xin- started in the zone and has now expanded elsewhere, as has the hua, President Xi declared: “The decision to build the zone was planned elimination of restrictions on wholly foreign-invested an important step of China’s reform and opening up in modern hospitals.2 times.” He added that management of the SFTZ “should com- An example of how the SFTZ provides real business advan- bine structural reform and the exploration of new methods, tages is demonstrated by Amazon which decided establish a lo- while controlling risks and gradually making improvements.” A gistics warehouse in the FTZ and which will allow Amazon to few days later, he commented that, “The experience gained at open its global platform for domestic markets and also to make China’s Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone (Shanghai FTZ) can cross-border payments and experiment with other financial re- be copied to more places as soon as possible”, comparing it to forms.2 “seeds cultivated from an experimental plot. We should plant A year after the launch, Beijing said it was lifting restrictions these seeds in more land so that flowers will blossom and fruits on foreign investments in several industries, such as the ship- be harvested as quickly as possible.” 11 ping sector in the SFTZ, reported the South China Morning Business leaders view the President’s visit as symbolically im- Post, in a bid to encourage the world’s biggest shipping lines to portant and his endorsement, though mild, as significant, say expand in China, as they could now directly tap the booming the Wall Street Journal. Even a brief visit by the president to business at the Yangshan deep-water port, which is part of the the SFTZ, said Stefan Sack, a Shanghai representative from the FTZ. The new measures also include lifting of some restrictions European Chamber of Commerce in China, “gives it additional in the manufacturing sector, such as on motorcycles, aviation value.”11 In October 2014, President Xi Jinping made his en- engine parts and railway-bridge and station equipment, also dorsement even clearer by declaring, that more than a year after aimed at wooing foreign investors to the zone.3 its launch, the example of the SFTZ “should now be copied in The policy change follows Premier Li Keqiang’s statement more provinces as soon as possible.”18 in September 2014 that market forces would be allowed to play In September 2014, Premier Li Keqiang did a two-day tour a dominant role in the FTZ. The South China Morning Post of the SFTZ, where he re-affirmed the central government’s reports, according to a circular to ministries and provincial gov- commitment to the FTZ, pushed FTZ authorities to accelerate ernments from the State Council, more than 20 sectors are to be

66 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

大的推动，外国投资允许进入投资银行、财务公司、信 账；通过综合账户建立人民币现金池；取消国家外汇管 托公司和货币经济公司等。中国的医疗保健行业正蓬勃 理局（SAFE）对低于3亿美元海外投资的审批要求；简化 发展，涉及到投资该行业的条款也作了修订，包括取消 海关和检验检疫手续；建立上海国际仲裁法庭，以便更 了投资医疗机构投资总额不低于2000万元人民币和经营 加公平地解决争议。对于在上海自由贸易试验区的企业 期限不超过20年的限制5。此外，根据修订版负面清单， 来说，这些都是实实在在的好处。2 上海自由贸易试验区允许外国投资互联网上网服务营业 场所，娱乐业对外资的限制更加宽松，中国早前已解除 现在，最成功的改革经验已经迅速推广到全国范 长达十二年的掌上游戏机销售禁令。修订版负面清单为 围，提高了改革的影响力。例如，海关近期宣布，要把 香港和澳门的投资者提供多项优惠政策，投资限制更 上海自由贸易试验区实施的14个海关措施推广到全国。 少，例如电影院的建设和经营，以及一系列航空运输业 这些措施简化了海关报关程序，提高效率，促进上海自 地面服务5。 由贸易试验区进出口增长，改善了整体的经营环境。在 金融领域，上海自由贸易试验区率先取消了公司最低注 2014年5月，中国国家主席习近平首次到访中国上 册资本的要求，随后这种做法在2014年3月推广到全国。 海自由贸易试验区，对上海自由贸易试验区表示了较温 放开300万美元以下外币存款利率上限也是从上海自由贸 和的支持。根据新华社报道，习近平主席在考察期间表 易试验区开始实施的，随后也推广到其他地区，取消外 示，“建立自由贸易试验区的决定是中国在现代时期进 商独资医疗机构限制也是如此。2 行改革开放的重要步骤。”他说，上海自由贸易试验区 的管理“按照先行先试、风险可控、分步推进、逐步完 上海自由贸易试验区如何为企业创造优势呢？以亚 善的原则，把扩大开放同改革体制结合起来，把培育功 马逊公司为例，亚马逊决定在上海自由贸易试验区建立 能同政策创新结合起来。”几天之后，他对自贸区的成 一个物流仓库。那么，亚马逊的全球购物平台就可以向 效作出评价，希望“中国（上海）自由贸易试验区所取 中国国内市场开放，也可以开展跨境支付，并根据自贸 得的经验能够尽快推广到更多地区”，还把这些经验比 区其他金融改革措施做出更多尝试。2 作“从试验田播种收获的种子，要把种子播到更多的土 地上，精心管护，期望尽快开花结果。”11 根据《南华早报》报道，在上海自由贸易试验区挂 牌一年之后，中国国务院发出通知，在上海自由贸易试 据《华尔街日报》报道，很多商界领袖认为习近平 验区内调整对部分行业外国投资的限制，其中包括船舶 主席的到访具有重要的象征意义，他的支持虽然不算强 海运领域，以鼓励世界大型船舶企业到中国发展，依靠 烈，但是影响很大。上海中国欧盟商会副主席斯蒂芬•赛 日渐繁荣的洋山深水港拓展在华业务——­ 洋山深水港正 克（Stefan Sack）认为，即使习近平主席在上海自由贸易 是上海自由贸易试验区的组成部分。为了吸引外国投资 试验区的调研时间非常短，但是他的到访本身就“为上 者到上海自由贸易试验区投资，本次出台的政策还取消 海自由贸易试验区增值不少。11”2014年10月，习近平主 一些制造行业的投资限制，例如摩托车制造、航空发动 席更明确地表达了他对上海自由贸易试验区的支持。在 机及零部件、铁路桥梁设备和车站设备等。3 上海自由贸易试验区挂牌一周年之际，习近平主席在一 次讲话中表示，上海自由贸易试验区取得的经验“要尽 2014年9月，国务院总理李克强在一次讲话中强调， 快复制推广到更多省份。”18 上海自由贸易试验区应该以市场的力量为主导。《南华早 报》报道称，根据国务院向各部委、各省市下发的一份通 2014年9月，国务院总理李克强在上海自由贸易试验 知，上海自由贸易试验区将进一步扩大开放，调整市场准 区进行了为期两日的考察调研。在此期间，他重申中央 入措施，将有20多个行业进一步向外国投资者投资开放。 政府对上海自由贸易试验区的承诺，要求上海自由贸易 允许外国投资者在合资船舶企业拥有控股权，投资比例上 试验区管理部门加快深化改革，同时也表示自贸区内资 限从49%上升到51%，这种情况在中国历史上还是第一次。 外资都要一视同仁、平等对待。2 此外，外国投资者也可以从事盐的批发业务。3

金融分析人士表示，为了实现上海自由贸易试验区 据《南华早报》报道，在上海自由贸易试验区挂牌一 注册企业的投资资金能够自由进出中国，政府目前已做 年之后，政府承诺的很多改革都迟迟未能兑现，为此外国 出的改变是积极的。虽然这些调整都是技术性问题，但 投资者纷纷表示失望。2014年11月，上海市市长杨雄承诺 是这些改变确实体现了中国在努力推出一个更加以市场 加快推进中国上海自由贸易试验区建设。杨雄市长说，上 为导向的货币兑换政策。11 海自由贸易试验区正在研究下一步的工作方案，包括加快 人民币资本项目可兑换，还有其他开放金融市场的计划， 上海自由贸易试验区推出了多项制度创新，例如建 但是他并未给出明确的时间表。有批评称2013年和2014年 立自由贸易账户制度（FTA），让上海自由贸易试验区内 两份负面清单太长，对此，杨雄市长表示，上海市委市政 的企业可以不受目前的限制，进行外汇与人民币跨境转 府将会在2015年推出一份进一步缩减的“负面清单”。4

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opened up to overseas investors in the FTZ. For the first time, hai, and Guangzhou, making it potentially much larger than the they will be allowed to own a controlling stake in joint-venture current free trade zone in Shanghai. The plan received a boost shipping agencies, with the investment cap raised from 49 to 51 when the Third Plenum expressed general support for opening per cent. Foreign investors will also be allowed to engage in salt additional free trade zones in China.9 wholesaling.3 In June 2014, however, the government suspended the In November 2014, the Post reported that Shanghai Mayor approval of any further Free Trade Zones (FTZ) following a Yang Xiong promised to speed up development of the SFTZ as a wave of proposals imitating the Shanghai FTZ, according to chorus of foreign companies expressed disappointment over the Xinhua. While Premier Li Keqiang had previously announced pace of pledged reforms a year after the zone’s opening. Mayor that pilot projects would commence in several areas, these have Yang said the government would work towards making the yuan been indefinitely stalled based on a flood of unsatisfactory freely convertible, among other financial liberalization plans for applications.7 It was reported that local governments wanted to the FTZ, but gave no timetable. Yang said the municipal govern- secure licensing for such zones solely as means to secure funding ment would also offer a revised “negative list” in 2015, following for land redevelopment.7 criticism that the two previous lists were too long.4 The ban affected some 20 cities believed to have submitted One year after the launch, as the Wall Street Journal reports: applications for FTZs. Included is the Guangdong Free Trade “The removal of the project’s leader on September 15 marked Zone, which had already received approval yet has now been the latest setback for the free-trade zone.” 12 caught up in the blanket ban.7 Faced with downward pressure The seeming lack of clarity and glacial pace of reform in on GDP growth, many of these places have once again re- Shanghai has not deterred Guangdong, which is attempting fi- sumed their free trade zone planning. Premier Li Keqiang has nancial experiments with Shenzhen’s Qianhai area, and is seek- said “China would sum up the experience of the Shanghai Free ing a new zone which, local media speculate, may be even more Trade Zone at an appropriate time and promote the replicable ambitious than Shanghai’s – possibly linking to Hong Kong experience to other parts of the country.” 8 and Macau. And Guangdong isn’t the only place waiting in line. In January 2014, Xinhua had erroneously reported that the Wuhan, Tianjin and even Ningxia, are also contemplating zone Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) had granted approval to possibilities. 10 twelve further Free Trade Zones. Later this was revised in light According to recent news reports, the State Council has of a MOFCOM announcement that no further FTZs had yet asked the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) to give Tianjin received approval, though a number of applications were subject and Guangdong assistance in drawing up their free trade zone to ongoing review, including zones in Guangdong and Tianjin.7 framework designs. Chengdu of Sichuan, Hefei of Anhui, Yin- By late June 2014, the overall plan for the proposed Guang- chuan of Ningxia and Shenyang of Liaoning have also started to dong free trade zone was back on track, having undergone two draw up proposals for their own free trade zones. 8 rounds of consultation with the relevant ministries and com- Guangzhou announced the scope of its proposed Free-Trade missions. The proposed Guangdong FTZ will cover four areas, Zone (FTZ) plan in its unified Guangdong-Hong Kong-Ma- namely, the Nansha New Area Bonded Zone, Qianhai New cau FTZ application. In September 2014, Guangzhou Mayor Area, Hengqin New Area and Guangzhou Baiyun Airport Chen Jianhua revealed that in the application submitted to the Comprehensive Bonded Zone.6 State Council, two areas totaling 15.2 square kilometers were Qianhai in Shenzhen is one of more than 10 newly created added to the proposed FTZ. These are the 7.8 square kilome- or proposed special zones. Six years from now, the New York ter Nansha Bonded Zone, to the south of the city, and the 7.4 Times reports that Shenzhen officials envision, Qianhai will be square kilometer Baiyun Airport Economic Zone, which lies a thriving, international finance district in Shenzhen to rival in the north. The former includes a port, while the latter fea- Manhattan, the city of London or Hong Kong, with a working tures Guangzhou’s international airport.6 The Guangzhou FTZ population of 650,000 people generating annual gross domestic lists logistics, manufacturing, land development and finance product of around US$25 billion in Qianhai by 2020 — plans as its key industries. Although other parts of the Nansha New that call for total investment of nearly 400 billion renminbi, or Area and the South Railway Station area have not been includ- about US$65 billion.14 ed, Guangzhou’s contribution to the entire Guangdong-Hong Officials in Qianhai like to point out that President Xi’s first Kong-Macao FTZ is larger than many had originally predicted.8 trip outside Beijing after assuming leadership of the Communist Earlier, in November 2013, Governor Zhu Xiaodan had de- Party in late 2012 was to Shenzhen and Qianhai, where he spoke clared Guangdong’s hopes to become the home of China’s next of national rejuvenation and the pursuit of what he has called free trade zone. The proposed Pearl River Delta Free Trade Zone the “Chinese dream.” “The goal of Qianhai is to be a dream would encompass the special administrative regions of Hong factory for the Chinese dream,” said He Zijun, deputy director Kong and Macao as well as parts of the cities of Shenzhen, Zhu- of the Qianhai Authority, which administers the zone.14

68 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

据《华尔街日报》报道，在成立一周年之际，“上 再次启动自由贸易区申请规划。李克强总理说过，“中 海自由贸易试验区常务副主任于2014年9月15日遭到免 国将适时对上海自由贸易试验区的经验进行总结，逐步 职，这是上海自由贸易试验区最近遇到的一次挫折。”12 将可复制的经验，再面向全国其他地区逐步推广。8”

虽然上海自由贸易试验区的建设似乎缺乏明确的方 2014年1月，新华社报道称，全国已有十二个地方 向，改革步伐缓慢，如履薄冰，但是广东省并未因此却 自由贸易区获得中国商务部（MOFCOM）批复，后来 步。在深圳市前海地区进行金融改革试验之后，广东省 证实为误报。为此，商务部澄清说，目前商务部正在审 目前正在争取建设一个新的自由贸易园区。据当地媒体 核多个自贸区申请，包括广东和天津的自贸区，但是目 猜测，广东规划的自由贸易区比上海自由贸易试验区更 前除了上海以外，国务院尚未批复设立任何其他自由贸 加宏大，可能连接香港和澳门特别行政区。广东省也并 易园区。7 非唯一有此野心的地区，武汉市，天津市，甚至宁夏回 族自治区，都在争取建设自由贸易试验区的机会。10 到了2014年6月底，经过有关部委两轮的研究论证之 后，广东省的自由贸易区总体规划重新回到轨道上。粤 根据近期媒体报道，国务院已经要求商务部（MOF- 港澳自由贸易区规划已确定包括四个区域，即广州南沙 COM）协助天津市和广东省制定自由贸易试验区框架规 新区保税区、深圳前海新区、珠海横琴新区和广州白云 划。四川省成都市、安徽省合肥市、宁夏银川市和辽宁 机场综合保税区。6 省沈阳市也开始拟定计划，建设自己的自由贸易区。8 深圳市前海区是中国十几个新建或者计划建立的 广州市统一申报自贸区，其提交粤港澳自由贸易区 经济特区之一。据《纽约时报》报道，对于前海区的未 规划方案明确了自由贸易区的申报范围。2014年9月，广 来，当地官员的设想是，六年之后，前海区将会发展成 州市市长陈建华向媒体透露，广州提交的申请方案增加 为繁荣的国际金融中心，比肩美国曼哈顿、伦敦金融 了两个区域：一是位于广州市南部的南沙保税区，面积 城和香港中环。到了2020年，前海区将会有65万工作人 7.8平方公里；一是广州市北部的白云空港经济区，面积 口，每年创造的国内生产总值将达到250亿美元。前海合 7.4平方公里，累计面积达到15.2平方公里。前者包括一 作区发展规划所需的建设资金约为4000亿元人民币，相 个港口，而后者则主推广州市的国际机场。6广州市申报 当于650亿美元。14 的自由贸易区将物流业、制造业、土地开发和金融业列 为重点产业。虽然南沙新区部分区域和广州火车南站并 习近平主席在2012年年底当选中共中央总书记之 没有被列入粤港澳自由贸易区申报范围，广州市在整个 后的第一次出行，就到深圳和前海。这是前海区官员们 粤港澳自由贸易区的重要性比此前预计的更大。8 津津乐道的事情。在考察期间，习近平主席谈到民族复 兴，提出要追寻“中国梦”。前海合作区管理局是该区 早在2013年11月，广东省省长朱小丹就公开表示， 域的管理部门，管理局副局长何子军说:“前海的目标就 希望中国下一个自由贸易区落户广东省。广东省申报的 是成为中国梦的梦工厂。”14 珠江三角洲自由贸易区域包括香港和澳门特别行政区， 以及深圳市、珠海市和广州市的部分地区，面积将会远 据《纽约时报》报道，2014年1月，位于纽约的房地 远大于上海目前的自由贸易园区。中共十八届三中全会 产开发商兆华斯坦地产公司（Silverstein）与一家中国公 鼓励开放更多自由贸易区，这推动广东省更加积极申报 司合作，以134亿元人民币成功拍下了前海区内的一块土 自贸区。9 地。兆华斯坦由此获得了一块55万平方英尺土地的开发 权，计划用于建造办公楼、零售商场、服务式公寓和酒 据新华社报道，在上海建立自由贸易试验区后，很 店，总建筑面积近500万平方英尺。14 多地方纷纷提出建立自由贸易区的申请，但是中央政府 却在2014年6月暂停审批自由贸易区申请。国务院总理李 2014年8月，中国人民银行、中国银行业监督管理 克强曾经宣布要在多个地区建设自由贸易试验区，但是 委员会、中国证券监督管理委员会和中国保险监督管理 各地自贸区申请一哄而起，中央政府高层对申报存在的 委员会达成一致意见，同意在26个方面支持前海加快金 问题不甚满意，决定无限期暂停申报7。有报道指出，很 融改革创新。例如，中国证券监督管理委员会同意深圳 多地方政府申报自由贸易区，只不过是借申报之名获取 股票交易所在前海设立私募股权产品的跨境投资融资平 土地开发的资金罢了7。 台，允许符合条件的境内外机构和个人参与投资交易， 允许境外的企业到该平台以债券、股权等形式进行融 自贸区暂停申报对20多个已经提交自贸区规划方案 资。中央银行同意前海企业的境外母公司或控股子公司 的城市造成影响，其中包括广东省。粤港澳自由贸易区 根据市场需求，到境内市场发行人民币债券，允许其将 原本已经获得批准，但是却受到这次全面禁止牵连而暂 募集的资金调到境外使用。除了同意前海设立金融租赁 停申报7。面对国内生产总值增速下行的压力，很多地区 公司之外，中国银行业监督管理委员会还支持现有信托

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In January 2014, according to the New York Times, New Ultimately, the Shanghai Free Trade Zone poses an York property developer Silverstein teamed up with a Chinese important test for a possible China-U.S. bilateral investment firm in a winning bid of 13.4 billion yuan for a plot of land in treaty, as Peking University professor Yiping Huang writes for the district. The developer acquired rights to a 550,000-square- the East Asia Forum. foot site, where it plans to build offices, retail outlets, service The next few years will be interesting for China’s bold exper- apartments and hotels covering a total floor area of nearly five iments in free trade. Will the government slowly ease away from million square feet. 14 some restrictions, as Shanghai Party chief Han Zheng predicts? In August 2014, the People’s Bank of China, the China Will the central government continue to support the opening Banking Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regu- of other free trade zones, such as the one Guangdong envisions latory Commission and the China Insurance Regulatory Com- for the Pearl River Delta? Will the reforms truly allow for mar- mission reached a consensus and put forward 26 policy mea- ket forces to play a larger role in China’s financial markets, in- sures in support of financial reform and innovation in Qianhai. cluding setting both the value of the RMB and interest rates? For example, the China Securities Regulatory Commission It remains to be seen if China’s flirtation with free trade will agrees to allow the Shenzhen Stock Exchange to establish a migrate to the national stage, thereby completely transforming cross-border investment and financing platform for private eq- how the world’s largest economy does business.9 uity products in Qianhai, allow qualified domestic and foreign institutions and individuals to take part in investment transac- tions, and allow foreign enterprises to carry out debt financing and equity financing on that platform. The central bank agrees to let the overseas parent or holding companies of companies in Qianhai issue yuan denominated bonds in the domestic mar- ket and transfer the funds raised to offshore markets. Besides supporting Qianhai in setting up financial leasing companies, the China Banking Regulatory Commission also supports ex- isting trust companies to set up branches in Qianhai and allows the Qianhai branches of mainland-funded banks with offshore business license to obtain an offshore business license. The Chi- na Insurance Regulatory Commission also agreed to let Qian- hai launch the “Shenzhen-Hong Kong stock connect” pilot scheme, starting with reinsurance services.8 On December 13, 2014, both Xinhua and China Daily reported that at a State Council meeting the day before, three new pilot free trade zones, namely in Guangdong, Fujian and Tianjin, will be launched “to test greater opening-up” and “tap the economy’s huge potential to hedge against mounting down- ward pressure next year.” The report said that “the State Coun- cil’s proposal can win the top legislature’s approval at the end of December at the earliest.” A statement issued after the meet- ing, stated that the three areas will take on “most of the reform initiatives now being applied to the Shanghai pilot zone” and will be built based on existing development parks, with Xinhua speculating that these are likely going to be the Qianhai Special Economic Zone in Shenzhen, Guangdong province, the Tian- jin Binhai New Area and Pingtan Comprehensive Pilot Zone in Fujian.19 While the Shanghai FTZ still has far to go to satisfy its many critics, the increase of support from the central government and the small but significant reforms implemented in the FTZ indi- cate that the FTZ still has the potential to play a significant role in China’s economic reform process as well as deliver concrete benefits to foreign companies registered in the zone.2

70 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

公司在前海设立分支机构，也同意获得离岸业务牌照的 中资商业银行在前海的分支机构自动取得离岸牌照。 中国保险监督管理委员会则同意前海开展“深港通”试 点，从再保服务率先做起。8

新华社和《中国日报》在2014年12月13都发表报道 称，国务院已在12月12日举行常务会议，同意在广东、福 建、天津特定区域再设三个自由贸易园区，以“检验更高 水平的对外开放，开发巨大的经济发展潜力，应对来年日 益加大的下行压力。”报道说“国务院的的批复最早能够 在12月底获得中国最高立法机构全国人大通过。”会后发 布的公告表示，三个自由贸易园区，将“以上海自由贸易 试验区试点内容为主体”，而且要在现有新区、园区的基 础上进行建设。新华社报道猜测，这些现有新区、园区， 可能是广东省深圳市的前海经济特区，天津市的滨海新区 和福建省的平潭综合试验区。19

上海自由贸易试验区要让众多批评者满意，还有很 漫长的路要走。不过，中央政府已经加大对上海自由贸 易试验区的支持力度，实施的改革虽然幅度较小但是影 响深远。由此可见，上海自由贸易试验区仍然对中国的 经济改革进程具有非常重要的意义，也能够为试验区内 的外资企业带来实实在在的好处。2

北京大学教授黄益平在为东亚论坛撰稿时指出，上 海自由贸易试验区是中美最终能否签署双边投资协定的 一次重要考验。

在接下来几年，我们将会看到中国自由贸易“大胆 试”的走向。政府是否会如上海市委书记韩正所预计的 那样，逐步放松外国投资限制？像广东省为珠江三角洲 地区规划的自由贸易区，中央政府是否会继续支持在更 多地区开设？改革的措施是否能够真正放开中国金融市 场，让市场的力量来决定人民币的价值和汇率？作为世。 界上最大的经济体，中国在自由贸易上的试验，是否能 够推广到全国范围，从而完全改变中国做生意的方式？ 我们将拭目以待。9

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Works Cited 11 James T. Areddy. “Xi Jinping’s Shanghai Free-Trade Zone Remarks Seen as Mild, but Welcome Endorsement.” Wall Street Journal. 1 “Background of Shanghai FTZ.” CCTV.com. September 23, 2013. May 25, 2014. http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/05/25/ http://english.cntv.cn/program/bizasia/20130926/101804.shtml xi-jinpings-shanghai-free-trade-zone-remarks-seen-as-mild-but- welcome-endorsement/ 2 Veomayoury Baccam. “Shanghai FTZ Promises New Reforms and Vows to Further Trim Negative List.” Insight, American Chamber 12 Shen Hong. “Shanghai Free-Trade Zone, One Year On, Disap- of Commerce in Shanghai. September 29, 2014. http://insight. points.” Wall Street Journal. September 29, 2014. http://blogs.wsj. amcham-shanghai.org/shanghai-free-trade-zone-promises-great- com/chinarealtime/2014/09/29/shanghai-free-trade-zone-one- er-reforms-shorter-negative-list-second-year/ year-on-disappoints/

3 “Beijing eases restrictions on foreign firms in year old Shanghai free 13 Daniel Broderick. “What Do China’s New Free Trade Zones Mean trade zone.” South China Morning Post. September 29, 2014. for North American Businesses?” Forbes. August 14, 2014. http:// http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1603520/bei- www.forbes.com/sites/hsbc/2014/08/14/what-do-chinas-new- jing-eases-restrictions-foreign-firms-year-old-shanghai-free free-trade-zones-mean-for-north-american-businesses/

4 “Shanghai Mayor Pledges to Speed Up Financial Reforms In Free 14 Neil Gough. “A Muddy Tract Now But By 2020, China’s Answer Trade Zone.” South China Morning Post. November 3, 2014. to Wall Street.” New York Times. April 2, 2014. http://dealbook. http://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/1630765/ nytimes.com/2014/04/02/a-financial-center-is-envisioned-on- shanghai-mayor-pledges-speed-financial-reforms-free-trade a-muddy-tract-in-southern-china/?_php=true&_type=blogs&- module=Search&mabReward=relbias%3Aw&_r=0 5 Matthew Zito, Camille Chen and Rainy Yao. “Shanghai FTZ Re- vised Negative List Introduces Targeted FDI Reforms.” China 15 “Shanghai Trims List of Restrictions on Foreign Investment.” Briefing, Dezan Shira & Associates. July 3, 2014. http://www. Reuters/New York Times. July 1, 2014. http://www.nytimes. china-briefing.com/news/2014/07/03/shanghai-ftz-revised-nega- com/2014/07/02/business/international/shanghai-trims-list-of- tive-list-introduces-targeted-fdi-reforms.html restrictions-on-foreign-investment.html?_r=0

6 Liu Zhen. “Guangzhou Reveals Free Trade Zone Application.” Asian 16 “Xi says China to Found More FTZs Following Shanghai’s Legal Business. February 25, 2014. http://www.legalbusinessonline. Example.” Xinhua. October 27, 2014. http://news.xinhuanet. com/news/guangzhou-reveals-free-trade-zone-application/63752 com/english/china/2014-10/27/c_133746159.htm

7 “China Puts The Brake on Additional Free Trade Zones.” China 17 “Replicability Key to Shanghai FTZ Success.” Xinhua. September Briefing, Dezan Shira & Associates. June 5, 2014. http://www. 28, 2014. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014- china-briefing.com/news/2014/06/05/china-puts-breaks-addi- 09/28/c_133680190.htm tional-free-trade-zones-citing-poor-applications.html 18 Mary Swire. “China Planning Additional Free Trade Zones.” Tax- 8 “MOFCOM to Lend Help to Planned Free Trade Zones In news.com. October 30, 2014. http://www.tax-news.com/news/ Tianjin and Guangdong.” Hong Kong Trade & Development China_Planning_Additional_Free_Trade_Zones____66244.html Council Research. September 26, 2014. http://economists-pick- research.hktdc.com/business-news/article/Business-Alert-China/ 19 Gu Liping. “Three pilot trade zones proposed.” Xinhua. December MOFCOM-to-lend-help-to-planned-free-trade-zones-in-Tianjin- 13, 2014. http://ecns.cn/business/2014/12-13/146478.shtml and-Guangdong/bacn/en/1/1X000000/1X09ZGN1.htm 20 “China Announces Plans for Pilot Free Trade Zones.” Xinhua. 9 Shannon Tiezzi. “Guangdong: China’s Next Free Trade Zone?” April 20, 2015. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015- The Diplomat. November 29, 2013. http://thediplomat. 04/20/c_134167136.htm com/2013/11/guangdong-chinas-next-free-trade-zone/ 21 “China Allows Limited Yuan Convertibility in Three New Trade 10 William Kazer, Olivia Geng, Li Yue. “Free-for-all Over China’s Free Zones.” Reuters. December 11, 2015. http://economictimes. Trade Zones.” Wall Street Journal. October 17, 2013. http://blogs. indiatimes.com/news/international/business/china-allows-lim- wsj.com/chinarealtime/2013/10/17/free-for-all-over-chinas-free- ited-yuan-convertibility-in-three-new-free-trade-zones/article- trade-zones/ show/50135082.cms

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22 Zhao Yinan, An Baijie. “Free Trade Reform ‘Could Be Widened’ in Right Time.” China Daily. November 27, 2015. http://www. chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-11/27/content_22522398.htm

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1.6 Update on U.S.-China Trade & Investment

President Xi Jinping’s USA State Visit and coveted BIT deal. US-China Business Investment Treaty (BIT) A total of 94 CEOs signed a letter to Xi and President Obama, urging them to complete the BIT. Recent Developments China has been showing signs of willingness to ease some he U.S. and China have made progress in bilateral market restrictions, according to The Hill. For instance, in June Tinvestment treaty-related talks connected with President 2015, Beijing permitted foreign investors to own 100 percent Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington. Senior U.S. officials said they of e-commerce companies in China for the first time. In the were able to get China to shrink the list of sectors it is seeking coming months, officials removed mandates that foreigners to exclude from the BIT. Mr. Obama and Mr. Xi reaffirmed buying real estate pay their capital in full before borrowing their commitment to the investment treaty as a “top econom- money in China. Officials have also removed similar barriers in ic priority,” the White House said in a statement. 8 manufacturing. China’s Ministry of Commerce released a draft The Wall Street Journal reports that China’s latest formal law that experts view as a positive overhaul of its current laws on offer in the marathon BIT negotiations—involving 21 rounds foreign investment. 12 dating back to 2008—still contained more than 35 industry There are still serious obstacles ahead. Most importantly, sectors it wants kept off limits to foreigners, said Myron both sides have yet to agree on sectors in which investments will Brilliant, international vice president of the U.S. Chamber of not be allowed. Even though Chinese and U.S. negotiators have Commerce, which he added is considered an unacceptable recently exchanged the so-called “negative lists” naming these number for U.S. companies. 8 off-limits industries, the two sides are far apart. During China’s While the BIT has been quietly inching forward for nearly a State Visit to the US, both Presidents Obama and Xi reiterated decade, since 2008, on the U.S. side, its progress has perceived to that a “high-quality” BIT will be the most important item on have accelerated in recent months. If completed and approved the bilateral economic agenda. 11 by Congress, the deal would roll back technical barriers and The Hill points out the U.S.-China BIT has the potential investment restrictions that are limiting access to lucrative to be a win-win agreement to provide broad legal protections, markets in both countries, similar to an investment chapter of market-opening and dispute settlement mechanisms for foreign a free-trade deal. direct investment (FDI) flows in both directions. China already Given China’s stature as the world’s second-largest econo- has over 100 BITs with other nations, so current and potential my, the deal would have a massive impact on U.S. businesses, U.S. investors are presently at a disadvantage in competing for but it has largely been overshadowed by the massive Trans-Pa- investment opportunities in China. The Hill adds: “This is not cific Partnership (TPP). Still, companies, industry groups and a one-way street; Chinese investors are already investing, and unions have been clamoring to make their mark on the deal. looking to invest more, in the U.S., which we should welcome Fortune 500 companies and corporate associations includ- to help increase investment, jobs and economic growth here at ing the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the National Association home.” 12 of Manufacturers and the Financial Services Forum, which rep- Manisha Singh, an international lawyer and former Deputy resents the chief executives of the 18 largest financial institu- Assistant Secretary at the U.S. Department of State, makes tions operating in the United States, have reported lobbying on a compelling argument in Forbes: “China is a part of the the BIT in disclosure forms. In meetings with negotiators, the American economic equation and U.S. policy makers must find corporate world has been communicating three main concerns: ways to acknowledge this fact. The BIT will not compensate for being able to have market access in a country that often favors violations of international trade laws or immediately remedy its state-run enterprises, the ability to compete fairly with oth- the portion of the trade deficit attributable to China. It would, ers in the country, and ensuring that China has a transparent however, create a new set of rules to give U.S. investors greater regulatory process. ability to access a market with enormous potential and provide Lobbying on the deal approached a crescendo during Presi- a certain set of remedies if they are not accorded fair treatment. dent Xi Jinping’s stateside visit. He attended events that includ- In light of global economic and geopolitical realities as well ed high-powered CEOs from various sectors of the economy, as our own best interest, our posture toward China should be attempting to assuage distrust and promising progress on the one of thoughtful, strategic engagement rather than one of

76 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

1.6 美中贸易投资新进展

习近平主席访美和美中双边投资协定 不信任，促成双边投资协定谈判取得进展。 （BIT） 此外，有94名美国公司首席执行官联名致函习近平 主席和奥巴马总统，敦促他们尽快完成美中双边投资协 近期发展情况 定谈判。 在习近平主席访问美国期间，美中双方就双边投资协 定的相关议题进行谈判并取得了进展。美国政府高层官员 据美国政治新闻媒体《国会山》报道，中国已经表 现出放宽市场限制的意愿。例如，2015年6月，政府首次 说，他们已经让中国减少了希望从中美投资协定(BIT)中 排除的经济领域数量。白宫在一份声明中称，奥巴马总统 允许外国投资者在中国独资经营电子商务公司。在随后 和习近平主席重申，他们将会进行双边投资协定谈判，这 的几个月里，政府取消了购买房地产的外国人在中国借 是本次两国领导人会晤中“最重要的经济事务”。8 贷必须先付清房款的规定。此外，政府也取消了制造业 的类似规定。中国商务部公布外国投资法草案征求意见 美中双边投资协定的谈判持续已久，包括于2008年 稿，专家认为该草案对现行的外资管理法律进行了积极 的修订。12 进行的21次谈判。美国商会常务副会长薄迈伦（Myron Brilliant）在接受《华尔街日报》采访时指出，中国最近 正式提出的负面清单仍然包含超过35个禁止外国投资的 然而，谈判的道路仍然面临许多障碍。最重要的 工业部门。他补充道，对于美国企业来说，这个数字是 是，双方尚未就禁止外商投资的行业达成一致。虽然中美 无法接受的。8 双方的谈判人员已经交换了指定禁止外商投资的“负面清 单”，但是双方的分歧仍然巨大。在对美国进行国事访问 美中双边投资协定谈判于2008年正式启动，在过去 期间，奥巴马总统和习近平主席都重申，一个“高质量” 近十年里的进展缓慢，也相当低调。然而，在近几个月 的双边投资协定将会是中美双边经济议程中最重要的一项 11 里，美国方面加快了谈判进展速度。中美两国市场利润 内容。 丰厚，如果谈判得到完成并获得国会批准，协定将会削 减阻碍企业进入双方市场的技术壁垒和投资限制。这份 《国会山》指出，美中双边投资协定将会是一份双 双边投资协定类似于自由贸易协议中的投资章节。 赢协定，可以为外国直接投资（FDI）在两国之间双向流 动提供广泛的法律保护、市场开放和争端解决机制。中国 中国是全球第二大经济体，所以美中达成双边投资 已经与世界一百多个国家签订双边投资协定，所以在争取 协定将会对美国企业带来重大影响。但是，在规模更加 中国投资机会的竞争中，美国现在和未来的投资者已经处 于劣势。《国会山》补充道，“投资不是单向的，中国的 宏大的跨太平洋伙伴关系(TPP)面前，美中双边投资协定 显得相形见绌。尽管如此，各大企业、行业组织和工会 投资者已经在美国投资了，而且正在寻找更多投资机会， 仍然争相出力，促进美中双方缔结协定。 我们应该欢迎中国投资者，他们对美国增加投资，也有利 于美国增加就业机会，促进经济增长。” 12 据报道，世界500强企业和众多企业协会已经白宫和 国会游说，希望缔结美中双边投资协定。这些企业协会 曾任美国国务院助理国务卿的国际律师玛妮莎•辛 包括美国商会、美国全国制造商协会和美国金融服务论 格（Manisha Singh）在《福布斯》撰文表达了极有说服 坛，而美国金融服务论坛则代表了全美18家最大的金融 力的观点。她说，“美国经济是一个等式，中国是这个 机构的首席执行官。在与谈判人员会面时，美国企业界 等式的组成部分之一。美国的政策制定者必须想办法承 表达了他们关注的三大问题：要在一个常常偏袒国有企 认这一事实。美中双边投资协定不会就违反国际贸易法 业的国家获得市场准入；要与中国其他企业公平竞争； 律予以补偿，也无法马上弥补中国导致的贸易逆差。但 保证中国拥有透明的监管程序。 是，它会创造一套新的准则，便于美国投资者进入拥有 巨大潜能的中国市场，如果他们在中国市场得不到公平 在中国国家主席习近平对美国进行国事访问期间， 待遇，这份协定还可以提供一些解决方法。考虑到全球 企业界的游说到达了高潮。习近平出席的多个活动均邀 经济状况和地缘政治现状，以及我们的最大利益，我们 请美国各行各业企业高管参加，希望借此减少对彼此的 对待中国的态度，应该是深思熟虑的战略性交手，而不 是对抗性退后。在经过审慎谈判后，一个高标准的双边

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adversarial retreat. A high standard, carefully negotiated BIT BITs also protect investors in several other ways. BITs limit a presents one opportunity for such engagement.” 10 foreign government’s ability to require that American investors Still, if a balanced BIT can be concluded, both nations stand meet burdensome conditions to operate in their markets. Final- to gain. In a conclusion reached by The Diplomat, the U.S. ly, BITs ensure that American investors can move capital freely would encounter more profit opportunities in China, while in and out of the country in which they have invested.1 China would further its agenda to “Go Out” and promote BITs give American investors access to a neutral, third-par- maturation of its economy 9. We respectfully concur. ty arbitrator when a problem arises with another investor or the host government. This provision can be extremely helpful for BIT: Background investors in countries where the legal system is not mature or (This section “BIT” is incorporated from our 2015 White Paper.) well-established. Notably, the dispute settlement provisions do not give foreign investors more rights than those already estab- During the 2013 Strategic and Economic Dialogue, the lished in US law, thanks to America’s mature legal system, but the United States and China—the world’s two largest economies— benefits for American investors in China would be significant.1 agreed to restart negotiations on a bilateral investment treaty BITs are tools to break down market access barriers and (BIT). The United States currently has BITs with 42 countries. 1 give American companies greater protections overseas, but they A BIT is an agreement between two countries that outlines can’t address every problem that companies face abroad. For a road map for foreign investment in each other’s countries. example, American companies in China face challenges in pro- When countries enter into a BIT, both countries agree to pro- tecting and enforcing their intellectual property rights (IPR). A vide protections for the other country’s foreign investments. A BIT would not fix those problems directly. Indirectly, however, BIT provides major benefits for American investors in another a BIT would help US companies protect their IPR in China. country, including national treatment, fair and equitable treat- The BIT would remove ownership restrictions that force US ment, protection from expropriation and performance require- companies in some sectors to partner with Chinese firms in ments for investments, and access to neutral dispute settlement. order to invest. Without these restrictions, companies are in a A BIT ensures that foreign governments will treat American better position to protect their IPR because they can own 100 investors the same as domestic companies, a practice known percent of their operations instead of sharing their IPR with a as “national treatment.” BITs also guarantee that American in- partner.1 vestors are given the same types of preferences that other for- A BIT does not address government subsidies to Chinese eign investors are given in a market, also called “most-favored companies or give equal access to government procurement nation” treatment. Under a strong US-China BIT, the Chinese markets. Those issues must be addressed under separate initia- government would treat US companies the same as Chinese tives, either bilaterally or by getting China to join the World companies. 1 Trade Organization’s (WTO) Government Procurement The promise of equal treatment applies to investments made Agreement.1 prior to the time the BIT enters into force and to new invest- A BIT would, however, bar the Chinese government from ments in the market. That means that BITs bar foreign govern- granting preferential treatment to state-owned enterprises ments from using investment restrictions, like ownership caps, to (SOEs) and private Chinese companies. In addition, a BIT prevent American companies from investing in their markets.1 would obligate SOEs to treat US investors fairly. This require- This is particularly important in China, which currently re- ment would help protect US companies in China from unfair stricts investment in more than 100 industry sectors, ranging treatment. Some SOEs are given authority to regulate aspects from manufacturing to services to agriculture. By contrast, the of an industry even though they act as a commercial competitor United States restricts foreign investment outright in only five in that industry. In these situations, the BIT would ensure that sectors, and maintains 24 mostly minor conditions or restric- US companies’ competitors do not have the ability to regulate tions that would be removed if the United States is given reci- in their own favor. procity in China’s market. Since foreign investors already enjoy Even if a BIT cannot address all SOE-related issues, even if access to the United States’ market, a BIT would primarily serve issues are currently outside of the BIT’s scope – a BIT is still to better protect American investors in China.1 good for Americans operating businesses in China. The Obama A BIT would ensure US companies would not have to meet administration spent three years revising the US “Model BIT,” unfair investment requirements, such as licensing requirements, which is used as a basis from which the US negotiates its BIT which are not required of Chinese companies. The US-China agreements. In that process, the United States made important Business Council states that currently, US investors often face modifications that effectively address concerns about SOEs.1 difficulties—and at times discrimination—when applying for At the time of writing, the United States and China are in business licenses in China.1 the middle stages of negotiating the BIT. When the BIT text

78 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

投资协定就是一次战略性交手的机会。”10 许他们进入市场，双边投资协定限制外国政府这方面的 要求。最后，双边投资协定确保美国投资者的资金能够 如果双方能够达成一个均衡的双边投资协定，中美 自由地进出东道国。1 两国都会稳赚不赔。《美国外交官亚太时事杂志》得出 一个结论：美国在中国会遇到更多获利机会，而中国则 如果美国投资者与另一方投资者或者东道国政府 会进一步“走出去”，加快中国经济走向成熟9。对于这 产生争端，双边投资协定保障美国投资者通过中立的第 个结论，我们由衷地表示认同。 三方仲裁解决争端。在法律体制不成熟或者不完善的国 家，这一条款对投资者尤其有用。值得注意的是，解 双边投资协定：背景 决争端的条款所赋予外国投资者的权利，不会超越美国 现有法律所赋予的权利，这是得益于美国成熟的法律体 以下章节摘自《2015中国营商环境白皮书》 制，但是在中国的美国投资者也会从中获得很多好处。1

2013年，美国和中国这两个世界上最大的经济体举 双边投资协定是打破市场准入壁垒的工具，为美国 行了第五次战略与经济对话，期间两国达成协议，决定 企业在海外投资提供更多保护，但是双边投资协定并不 重启关于双边投资协定（BIT）的谈判。目前，美国与 能解决企业在海外市场面临的所有问题。比如说，美国 42个国家签署了双边投资协定。1 在华企业还面临着保护和执行知识产权（IPR）的挑战。 双边投资协定无法直接解决这些问题。然而，双边投资 双边投资协定是国家与国家之间签署的双边条约， 协定可以间接地帮助美国在华企业保护知识产权。中国 为本国公民在对方境内投资提供指引。签署双边贸易协 政府在某些行业设立所有权限制，为了进入中国市场， 定，意味着缔约双方同意为对方投资者在本国境内的投资 美国企业不得不与中国企业合作。双边投资协定将解除 提供保护。美国与外国签署双边贸易协定，为美国投资者 所有权限制，美国企业不必与中国企业合作，可以拥有 在外国投资带来很多好处，包括国民待遇、公平和公正待 企业100%的股份，这样就可以更好地保护知识产权。1 遇、投资不被征用、不受业绩要求限制、以及中立的争端 解决机制等。双边投资协定要求东道国政府像对待本国投 双边投资协定也无法解决中国政府补贴中国企业 资者一样对待美国投资者，即“国民待遇”。双边投资协 的问题，也无法给予美国企业平等进入政府采购市场的 定也保证美国投资者享受东道国给予其他外国投资者同样 机会。这些问题需要采取其他举措才能解决，或者是 的待遇，即“最惠国待遇”。在美中签署双边投资协定， 签订美中双边协议，或者是让中国加入世界贸易组织 中国政府给予美国企业的待遇将与给予中国本土企业的待 （WTO）的《政府采购协议》1。 遇一样。1 但是，双边投资协定会禁止中国政府用优惠政策扶 公平待遇既适用于双边投资协定生效前的投资，也 持国有企业（SOE）和中国私营企业。此外，双边投资协 适用于协定生效之后的投资。这就意味着，双边投资协 定会要求国有企业公平地对待美国投资者。这一要求将会 定不允许东道国政府限制投资，比如说用所有权上限等 有利于保护美国在华企业免遭不公平待遇。部分国有企业 方式，阻止美国企业在东道国投资。1 虽然作为行业的商业竞争者，但是却享有规范所在行业的 权力。在这种情况下，美中双边投资协定可以确保美国企 这一点在中国尤其重要。目前，中国限制外国投资 业的竞争对手不能以规范行业之名为自己谋取利益。 的行业超过100个，涉及制造业、服务业和农业等。相 比之下，美国只在五个行业设有外国投资限制，总共只 就算双边投资协定无法解决所有与国有企业相关的 有24个限制条件，大多为次要条件，如果中国给予美国 问题，就算目前很多问题都不在双边投资协定的范围之 互惠待遇，这些限制条件也会免除。外国投资者已经可 内，签订双边投资协定仍然有利于美国企业在华经营。 以进入美国市场，所以美中双边投资协定主要是为了更 奥巴马政府花了三年时间修订美国的“双边投资协定范 好地保护美国投资者在中国的利益。1 本”，在此基础上，美中两国进行双边投资协定谈判。 在此过程中，美国对范本作出重要的修订，有效地解决 如果签署美中双边投资协定，美国企业将不必满 了关于国有企业的问题。1 足不公平的投资要求，例如获得经营许可的要求，而中 国政府对中国企业并无此要求。美中贸易全国委员会指 在本文撰写之时，美中双边投资协定谈判正处于中 出，目前，美国投资者在中国申请经营许可，往往会遇 间阶段。双边投资协定文本最终敲定，准备好进入政府 到很多困难，有时候甚至是歧视。1 讨论审议阶段之后，首先提交到参议院全会审阅，然后 送至参议院外交关系委员会审议。审议之后，外交关系 双边投资协定还通过其他不同的方式保护投资者。 委员会向参议院全院报告审议结果，可能是通过，或者 例如，外国政府要求美国投资者符合繁重的条件，才允 不通过，或者不作建议，或者搁置协定不付诸表决。一

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is final and ready for government consideration, the treaty will regime what the WTO did for trade”. He recalled that when be submitted to the Senate and referred to the Committee on working on the WTO deal, Mr. Zhu told him, “I need you to Foreign Relations. Once considered, the Committee may re- push from the outside so I can push from the inside.” 3 port the treaty to the full Senate favorably, unfavorably, give no Similar sentiments were echoed a few months later in No- recommendation, or choose not to act it at all. When a treaty vember 2014, when during President Obama’s visit to Beijing has been reported to the Senate, it will be added to the Execu- for APEC, senior leaders from both countries had expressed a tive Calendar and considered in executive session. Two-thirds desire to conclude treaty talks in 2015. US Trade Representa- of the Senate must vote in favor of the BIT, via a resolution of tive Michael Froman remarked: “Our focus with China right ratification, in order for it to pass.1 now is on the Bilateral Investment Treaty, which is one key set The importance of the US-China BIT was brought to the of issues on investment that are part of an overall high-standard attention of US President Barack Obama in October 2014, approach.” The chief US trade negotiator said “a short negative when more than 50 business leaders called on the President to list discussed under the BIT would mean everything is open “make the completion of a bilateral investment treaty the focus in China except for a few things that are specially listed.” He of meetings next month in China.” According to top political described it as a “good test case for a high-standard agreement website The Hill, the 51 U.S. chief executives of firms which with China.” 4 included Fortune 500 companies such as Walt Disney and Coca The week before APEC, in early November 2014, China Cola, sent a letter of support for the BIT to the White House and the US concluded talks on the tariff-cutting Information and “asking the president to make such discussions a high Technology Agreement (ITA), hailed by Mr. Froman as “a ma- priority” with China’s President Xi Jinping in November 2014.2 jor breakthrough”.4 A month earlier, according to various me- According to the contents of the letter, the American busi- dia reports, Vice-Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao had stated ness leaders wrote the following to President Obama: “The that the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) “is incomplete commercial relationship between the United States and China without China’s participation.” 4,5,6. Speaking in Washington is enormously important to our companies and the health of DC, Mr. Zhu said: “...our position is clear. As China becomes the American economy. Getting this commercial relationship more open, it’s very important for us to be integrated into the right — by expanding the opportunities and effectively address- global trade system with high standard.”6 ing the challenges — will help maintain American economic According to China Daily, Mr. Zhu’s comments are “widely strength and leadership in the decades ahead. If China can sig- regarded as a major turning point in China’s attitude towards nificantly reduce its negative list and open markets to American TPP. China has evolved from having a deep suspicion of TPP manufacturers, agriculture producers, and service providers, you as part of a US containment strategy of China to showing an will find the business community fully engaged and supportive interest in the regional free trade agreement.”4According to the of your leadership to gain Senate approval of the treaty.”2 same report, Ely Ratner, a senior fellow and deputy director Leading the group’s efforts was US-China Business Council of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New head John Frisbie, who said the letter “represents a strong mes- American Security, wrote in Politico magazine that “the grow- sage” and adding that “completing a high-standard U.S.-China ing consensus in Beijing that China should try to be part of the BIT will have a significant and lasting impact on the trajectory TPP reflects not only the potential economic benefits it could of the U.S.-China commercial relationship and a more equita- accrue by joining the grouping, but also the fact that the chang- ble commercial framework to guide the relationship forward.”2 es necessary for China to qualify for membership could advance A few months earlier, the importance of the treaty between President Xi Jinping’s efforts to make domestic economic re- the two countries was emphasized by US Ambassador to China forms in areas such as market access, government procurement, Max Baucus, who, in his first Beijing public engagement in intellectual property rights, labor standards and environmental June 2014 since taking up the post in March, stated to the Wa l l protection.” 4 Street Journal that “There’s a lot of work to do on the [treaty], American business interests in China are keenly watching but moving forward on that will be a top priority for me.” the proceedings. In September 2014, the American Chamber According to the same media report, the Ambassador has a of Commerce in China formulated a new initiative – the BIT proven track record in negotiating trade deals with China. The Task Force – to act as a committee specializing in advocating Wall Street Journal recalls that in the 1990s, Mr. Baucus, then American business interests in US-China BIT negotiations.7 a senator, worked with then-Premier Zhu Rongji to promote Key points included the following: China’s entry into the World Trade Organization, which proved U.S. negotiations are spearheaded by the Office of the US to be China’s “catalyst for internal reform and the beginning of Trade Representative and the Department of the State, both of a decade of breakneck economic expansion”. Mr. Baucus stated: which focus on six core areas: “I believe that the [treaty] could do for China’s investment

80 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

旦协议向参议院报告，协定即被列入执行日历，进入行 高层领导人都表示要在2015年完成双边投资协定谈判。 政审议程序。随后，参议院对协定的《批准决议案》进 美国贸易代表迈克尔•弗罗曼（Michael Froman）表示，“ 行表决，必须得到出席并参加投票的参议员三分之二多 目前我们对中国的工作重点是双边投资协定，涉及到一 数赞成，协定才能获得通过。1 系列重要的投资问题，这些问题也是高标准协议的组成 部分。”这位美国首席贸易谈判专家说道，“在双边投 2014年10月，50多位美国商界领袖联名致信白 资协定的框架下，我们讨论了一个简短的负面清单，这 宫，“呼吁将双边投资协定列入总统的重点议题，希望 意味着，除了一些特别列出的行业之外，中国所有行业 总统在下月访华时与中国完成协定文本的谈判。”正因 都将对外开放。”他认为这种做法是“一个很好的测试 为此事，美中双边投资协定的重要性引起了奥巴马总统 案例，看看是否能与中国签署高标准的协议”。4 的关注。根据美国权威政治网站《国会山》报道，在51 名美国商界领袖中，有不少来自财富五百强企业，例如 2014年11月初，也就是亚太经合组织会议开幕一周 华特迪士尼公司和可口可乐公司，他们在信中对双边投 之前，中美两国结束了旨在削减信息技术产品关税的信 资协定表示支持，并希望总统在2014年11月与中国国家 息技术协议（ITA）谈判，弗罗曼称赞此次谈判是“一次 主席习近平会面时，“将双边投资协定的作为重中之重 重大突破”。4根据此前一个月的媒体报道，中国财政部 进行讨论。”2 副部长朱光耀曾经表示，美国主导的跨太平洋伙伴关系 协议（TPP）“没有中国的参与是不完整的”。在华盛顿 根据联名信的内容，这些美国商界领袖对奥巴马 特区发表讲话时，朱光耀说道，“……我们的立场非常 总统说：“美中两国的贸易关系，对于我们所在的企业 明确，中国将坚定走对外开放之路，我们非常重视加入 以及美国经济的健康发展都至关重要。两国要通过拓展 高标准的国际贸易体系。”6 合作机遇，有效地应对面临的挑战，建立良好的贸易关 系，这将有助于美国在未来几十年里维持经济实力和领 据《中国日报》报道，朱光耀的观点“被广泛认为 先地位。如果能够让中国大幅度缩减负面清单，向美国 是中国对TPP态度的重要转折点。中国曾经对TPP具有很 从事制造业、农业和服务业的企业开放市场，您将会看 深的怀疑，认为这是美国遏制中国的战略。现在情况已 到，美国商界都会全力支持你的领导，使双边投资协定 经有所不同，中国开始对区域自由贸易协定感兴趣。”4 在参议院获得赞成通过”2 根据这份报道，隶属于新美国安全中心的亚太安全项目 副主任、高级研究员伊莱•拉特纳（Ely Ratner）在《政 这次联名致信行动是由美中全国贸易委员会会长傅 治》（Politico）杂志发表文章说，“中国应该努力参与 强恩（John Frisbie）发起的，他说这封信“传达了非常 TPP，对此中国政府已经逐渐达成共识。这就意味着，中 强烈的信息”，他认为“签署一个高标准的美中双边投 国加入TPP能够带来巨大的经济利益；除此之外，中国为 资协定将对美中两国贸易关系的发展轨迹产生深远的影 了满足成员国要求而做出的改变，可能有助于习近平主 响，并将建立一个更公平的贸易框架，引导两国贸易关 席对国内经济的多个领域进行改革，例如市场准入、政 系在未来的健康发展。”2 府采购、知识产权、劳工标准、环境保护等。”4

早在几个月以前，美国驻华大使马克斯•鲍克斯也强 美国在华企业正在密切关注双边投资协定的谈判进 调了美中双边投资协定的重要性。2014年6月，鲍克斯大 程。2014年9月，中国美国商会作出一项新举措，成立 使自3月到任以来首次到访北京出席公开活动，在接受《 BIT专项工作组，为美国在华企业在美中双边投资协定谈 华尔街日报》采访时说，“关于双边投资协定我们还需要 判中争取利益。7 做很多工作，不过我目前的首要任务，就是推动协定的 谈判。”从《华尔街日报》的报道可以了解到，鲍克斯在 其工作要点如下： 对华贸易谈判方面具有丰富的经验。据《华尔街日报》回 美方谈判由美国贸易代表处和国务院负责，谈判重 顾，在上个世纪九十年代，鲍克斯作为参议员与时任国务 点放在下面六个核心领域： 院总理朱镕基谈判，推动中国加入世界贸易组织。事实证 明，加入世界贸易组织是中国“进行内部改革，开始进入 • 外国投资者的国民待遇； 十年突破性经济发展的催化剂”。鲍克斯说，“就像加入 • 迅速、适当、高效的征用过程； 世界贸易组织对中国贸易的推动一样，我相信这份双边投 • 资产在两国之间的转移； 资协定也会催化中国投资管理制度改革。”他记得在制定 • 业绩要求； 中国入世协议时，朱镕基告诉他说，“我需要你从外面推 • 投资者的雇佣选择； 动，这我就能够从内部发力了。”3 • 投资者与国家争端的权利、法定程序和解决机制。

2014年11月，类似的观点也见于报端。在奥巴马总 美中双边投资协定在本质上是美式自由贸易协定的 统到访北京参加亚太经合组织会议（APEC）期间，两国 组成部分，正如所有美国自由贸易协定一样，美中双边

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• National treatment for foreign investors; Works Cited • Prompt, adequate, and effective expropriation processes; • Transferability of assets between both countries; 1 Stephanie Henry. “Bilateral Investment Treaties: What They Are • Performance requirements; and Why They Matter.” China Business Review, US-China Busi- • Investor choice in hiring practices; and ness Council. September 12, 2014. http://www.china-briefing. • Investor state dispute rights, due process, and mechanisms. com/news/2014/09/12/bilateral-investment-treaties-matter.html

The US-China BIT is essentially a portion of a US model 2 Vicki Needham. “Business leaders call for completion of China Free Trade Agreement, as all such US FTAs include a chapter investment treaty.” The Hill. October 15, 2014. http://thehill. on investment. The BIT is made of two components; the text, com/policy/finance/220856-business-leaders-call-for or main body of the treaty, which includes agreements and mandates applicable to both US and China, as well as the ap- 3 Richard Silk. “Investment Treaty with China a Top Priority, US pendices, including the negative lists, which will contain each Ambassador Says.” Wall Street Journal. June 25, 2014. http:// country’s respective restrictions on foreign investment. Being a online.wsj.com/articles/investment-treaty-with-china-a-top- treaty, the BIT must be approved by Congress, and hence must priority-u-s-ambassador-says-1403682377 contain sufficient compromises on China’s part in order for the final BIT to pass the bill.7 4 Chen Weihua. “Investment treaty key for US, China.” China Dai- At the 2014 Strategic Economic Dialogue, US and Chinese ly USA. November 20, 2014. http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/ negotiators affirmed their commitment to intensifying Bilateral us/2014-11/20/content_18950741.htm Investment Treaty Negotiations, setting a goal to “reach agree- ment on core issues and major articles of the text by the end of 5 “China’s Zhu: Asia Pacific trade deal would be incomplete 2014” and “initiate the ‘negative list’ negotiation in early 2015 without Beijing.” Reuters. October 8, 2014. http://www. based on each other’s ‘negative list’ offers.7 reuters.com/article/2014/10/08/us-china-imf-zhu- The broad slate of domestic reforms in the Decisions indi- idUSKCN0HX2CY20141008 cates that China knows these reforms are in its own national interest and must be achieved, declares Mr. Rosen in his Asia 6 “TPP is incomplete without China: China’s vice finance minister.” Policy report. It makes sense from China’s perspective to nego- China Daily. October 9, 2014. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ tiate concessions from abroad for reforms that must be taken china/2014-10/09/content_18711231.htm in any case. However, it is important to recognize that China is pursuing market-oriented economic reforms for the simple, 7 Daniel H. Rosen. “Avoiding the Blind Alley: China’s Economic self-interested reason that it is simply a wise thing to do. 7 Overhaul and its Economic Implications.” An Asia Society Policy Report produced in collaboration with Rhodium Group. October 31, 2014. http://asiasociety.org/files/pdf/AvoidingtheBlindAl- ley_FullReport.pdf

8 William Mauldin, Mark Magnier. “US, China Make Progress Toward Trade and Investment Deal.” Wall Street Journal. September 25, 2015. http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-china- make-progress-toward-trade-and-investment-deal-1443208549

9 Sara Hsu. “The China-US Bilateral Investment Treaty: Next Week?” The Diplomat. September 18, 2015. http://thediplomat. com/2015/09/the-china-us-bilateral-investment-treaty-next- week/

10 Manisha Singh. “Forget The TPP, Let’s Talk About The BIT with China.” Forbes. June 24, 2015. http://www.forbes.com/sites/ realspin/2015/06/24/forget-the-tpp-lets-talk-about-the-bit-with- china/

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投资协定有一章是关于投资的。双边投资协定包含两个 部分：文本部分，或者协定的主体部分，包括适用于美 中双方的协议和条款；附录部分，包括负面清单，包含 美中双方对外国投资分别提出的限制。作为一份协议， 双边投资协定必须获得国会批准。所以，双边投资协定 的最后定稿要获得国会通过，内容必须体现中国已经做 出足够的妥协。7

在2014年中美战略与经济对话期间，美中谈判代表 重申，双方将会加紧双边投资协定谈判，并且提出谈判 目标，要“在2014年年底就核心议题和重要条款达成一 致”，在双方提出的“负面清单”基础上，于2015年年 初“启动‘负面清单’谈判”。7

荣大聂在其为亚洲协会撰写的报告中指出，中共三 中全会的《决定》为中国国内改革提出了全面的规划， 由此可见，中国已经清醒的认识到，改革是为了中国自 身的国家利益，所以一定要进行改革。从中国的角度来 看，“以开放促改革”具有重大意义，因为改革已是势 在必行。不过，我们也要明白，中国进行以市场为导向 的经济改革，理由其实非常简单：因为这样做符合中国 自身利益——­ 这样做才是明智的选择。7

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11 Minxin Pei. “US-China Summit: It’s Time for Some Cautious Optimism.” Fortune. September 28, 2015. http://fortune. com/2015/09/28/china-us-obama-xi-jinping-meeting/

12 Cory Bennett, Megan R. Wilson. “President Quietly Closes in on China Investment Treaty.” October 14, 2015. http://thehill.com/ business-a-lobbying/business-a-lobbying/256845-president-qui- etly-closes-in-on-china-investment

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85 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

1.7 An Overview on the Annual Development of Intellectual Property Law of P.R.C. in 2015

Preamble organize experts to inspect the market, to form comprehen- sive inspection comments afterwards. As for qualified mar- hina’S FAMOUS legal scholar, Wu Handong, kets, where there is no opposition from the public, they will Chonorary president of China Intellectual Property Law be listed as “a national standardized intellectual property pro- Association, wrote that copyright is produced from the cre- tection market”. Within five years, about 100 standardized ation of literature, art, science and other fields, and ensures intellectual property protection markets will be recognized. the development of cultural industry and prosperity; patents The Intellectual Property Office’s standardization of market are the result of creation of science and technology, which protection shows the Chinese government’s emphasis on the is conducive to cultivating the spirit of innovation, promot- intellectual property industry as well as a determination to ing industrial science, and technology; trademark rights are protect intellectual property rights. inseparable from the management operation of enterprises, In terms of intellectual property rights legislation, China which guarantees the healthy development of the economy. has enacted a large number of new intellectual property laws As professor Wu said, in a knowledge era economy, the system and regulations and relevant legal amendments. In 2014, the of intellectual property rights is bound to affect the country’s new Trademark Law was implemented as well as regulations development and heritage. From legislation, judicial practice such as Copyright Law Implementation Regulations, Trademark and law scholars’ research in recent years, we can see that the Law Implementing Regulations, Computer Software Protection Chinese government and the community have become aware Regulations, Information Network Transmission Rights Protection of the importance of intellectual property rights for China’s Regulations, Copyright Collective Management Regulations, and scientific and technological innovation and the economic New Plant Varieties Protection Regulations have been revised. transformation. This has provided an incentive for protection Relevant legislative departments are considering changes to of intellectual property in China. the Patent Law, Copyright Law, Promotion of the Conversion of Scientific and Technological Achievements, as well as Regulations Major Development of Intellectual Property on Patent Commissioning, and intensifying work on the Draft in China in 2015 Regulations on Employees Inventions. The 17th Meeting of the Twelve Session of the NPC Standing Committee passed the In 2014, the most notable event for protection of intel- Seed Law Amendment, and that revised law will take effect lectual property in China is the establishment of intellectual on January 1, 2016. The implementation of regulations such property courts in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, and in as Government Agencies Use Legitimate Software Management 2015 a major focus of attention is the performance of these Methods, Administrative Enforcement Measures for the Protection three intellectual property courts in judicial practice. In re- of New Varieties of Forestry, Agricultural Plants and so on, has sponse to the spirit of the 18th Third Plenary Session of the expanded the field of intellectual property protection. In Communist Party’s decision to implement a national intellec- the processing of intellectual property cases, the courts are tual property strategy, the state Intellectual Property Office improving trial procedures, for example, as shall be discussed, started to try to carry out market standardization for protec- for the first time there was a public hearing in a case involving all tion of intellectual property rights, and selected 65 companies trial committee members; the courts staff added an “essentials in Beijing as the first batch of state-level standardized market of the judgement docket” part, before issuing judgment for the cultivation objects for intellectual property rights protection. first time, and tried to record the collegial panel minority views In late 2015, the state Intellectual Property Office selected in written judgments. To sum up, compared to some countries dozens of companies in Beijing, and determined the Beijing in Europe, North America, and Asia, China’s intellectual Dangdang Network Information Technology Co. Ltd., and property industry still lags behind, but in recent years, the 38 other markets as the second batch of state-level standard- achievements of China’s intellectual property industry are ization market cultivation objects for intellectual property evident, and the Chinese system for protection of intellectual rights protection. The State Intellectual Property Office will property is also improving substantially.

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1.7 2015年中国知识产权法律年度发展回顾

序言 案》的起草工作。十二届全国人大常委会第十七次会议 表决通过了种子法修订案，修改后的法律将于2016年1 中国知名法学家、中国法学会知识产权研究会名誉 月1日起施行。《政府机关使用正版软件管理办法》、 会长吴汉东曾写道，著作权产生于文学、艺术、科学等领 《林业、农业植物新品种保护行政执法管理办法》等规 域的创造，保障了文化产业的发展与繁荣；专利权则源 章的实施，拓展了知识产权保护的领域。在知识产权案 于科学技术的创造，有利于培养民族的创新精神、推动产 件的审理过程中，法院正在完善审判程序，如将要被提 业科技化；商标权的产生离不开企业的运营创作，保障着 及的首次采取由审判委员会全体委员直接公开开庭审理 国民经济的健康发展。正如吴教授所述，在这个知识经济 案件的措施；法院工作人员第一次在发布判决书之前增 时代，知识产权制度的设置，必将影响到一个国家的发展 加“判决摘要”部分，并尝试将合议庭少数意见记载在 与传承。从近年来的立法、司法实践以及法学者们的研究 裁判文书中。总而言之，相比于欧洲、北美以及亚洲的 中，我们可以探知中国政府以及社会各界已经意识到了知 一些国家，中国的知识产权行业仍较落后，但在最近几 识产权对于中国科技创新和经济转型的重要性。这也为中 年，中国知识产权领域的成就是显著的，中国知识产权 国知识产权的保护提供了一个激励因素。 保护体系也得到了实质性的改善。

2015年中国知识产权的主要发展 2015年意义重大的知识产权法规

2014年中国知识产权的保护最为引人注目的事 专利行政执法办法（2015）修订 件便是北京、上海、广州知识产权法院的设立，而2015 年一个最主要的关注焦点则是三地知识产权法院的司法 原有《专利行政执法办法》（以下简称“执法办 实践表现。为响应十八届三中全会精神，切实贯彻国家 法”）于2011年2月正式实施。执法办法的实施对进一 知识产权方略，国家知识产权局开始尝试开展知识产 步加强保护专利权人和社会公众的合法权益。 权保护规范化市场培育工作，并在北京选定了65家企业 作为第一批国家级知识产权保护规范化市场培育对象。 随着我国经济社会的快速发展，技术进步和市场 在2015年后期，国家知识产权局又在北京选定了几十家 竞争的加剧带来专利保护领域的新情况、新问题。在开 企业，并确定北京当当网信息技术有限公司等38家其他 展“打击侵犯知识产权和制售假冒伪劣商品”专项行动 市场作为第二批国家级知识产权保护规范化市场培育对 以及人大常委会专利法执法检查中发现，我国目前专利 象。在这项行动后，国家知识产权局将会组织专家对市 保护不力，需要进一步强化和完善专利行政执法。伴随 场进行考察，形成综合验收意见。对于达标市场，如社 着展会经济、虚拟经济的发展和电子商务的兴起，如何 会无异议，将列为“国家级知识产权保护规范化市场” 有效解决展会期间和网络环境下的专利保护问题备受社 。在五年期间内，认定100家左右知识产权保护规范化市 会关注。 场。国家知识产权局的保护规范化市场行动体现出中国 政府对知识产权行业的重视以及保护知识产权的决心。 需要说明的是，对于专利群体侵权、重复侵权严重 等突出问题，2015年7月1日，国家知识产权局颁布实施 在知识产权立法方面，中国颁布了大量新的知识产 了修订的《专利行政执法办法》。 权法律法规和相关法律修订案。2014年新的《商标法》 开始实施，以及《著作权法实施条例》《商标法实施条 主要内容的修改 例》《计算机软件保护条例》《信息网络传播权保护条 例》《著作权集体管理条例》《植物新品种保护条例》 1. 贯彻法治原则，强调依法行政宗旨 等行政法规的修改完善。相关立法部门加紧推进《专利 《专利行政执法办法》对加强依法行政提出明确 法》《著作权法》《促进科技成果转化法》《专利代理 要求其全过程应贯彻法治原则，严格落实依法行政。为 条例》等法律法规修改，并加紧了《职务发明条例草 此，本次修改将“深入推进依法行政”明确写入执法办 法的立法宗旨中（第一条）。

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Significant IPR Laws and Regulations in 2015 plicated cases), (2) clears the filing deadline for medi- ating patent disputes and investigating and punishing Measures for Patent Administrative Law En- counterfeit patent acts (Article 24 and 28, “promptly forcement (2015 Amendment) file the case” with strong sense of principle is amended The original Measures for Patent Administrative Law En- to specify a clear time limit), and (3) explicitly provides forcement (hereinafter referred to as “Law Enforcement Mea- requirements on time limits for relevant administra- sures”) was officially implemented in February 2011. The Law tive decisions (Article 46, make it clear that one must Enforcement Measures intend to further facilitate protection of promptly publish law enforcement information on gov- the rights of patent holders and the general public. ernment website, etc. within a specified time limit). Amidst China’s rapid economic and social development, Exhibitions need quick mediation of patent infringe- technology advancements, and the intensifying market com- ment disputes and prompt investigation and treatment petition, new conditions and issues in the field of patent pro- of counterfeit patent acts. The current Patent Law has tection are emerging. In the course of conducting the special already provided the patents holders’ rights to offer to operation of “crackdown on IPR infringements and on pro- sell industrial designs, while relevant provisions of ex- duction and sale of counterfeit and shoddy commodities” and hibition regulation for IP protection have not reflected inspection of the enforcement of the Patent Law by the NPC similar rights. With rapid progress of new technology Standing Committee, current patent protection was found such as the internet, etc., patent protection issues in new ineffective and patent administrative law enforcement needs emerging fields such as e-commerce appear and corre- to be further strengthened and improved. With the develop- sponding administrative law enforcement methods re- ment of exhibition and virtual economy and the emergence quire prompt change and creation. The practice of dif- of e-commerce, questions regarding the effective resolution ferent zones such as Zhejiang Province and other places of patent protection issues during the exhibition period and reveals the strong demand of e-commerce platform in the current internet era have attracted society’s attention. suppliers, online shop operators and obligees to further It is important to note that on July 1, 2015 the State In- improve patent administrative law enforcement and to tellectual Property Office (SIPO) promulgated and imple- resolve patent infringement disputes in the e-commerce mented the amended Measures for Patent Administrative Law field. Therefore, this amendment provides that patent Enforcement to address serious group patent infringements, re- administrative departments should strengthen adminis- peated infringements, and other related prominent problems. trative law enforcement in exhibition and e-commerce fields, rapidly mediate and handle patent infringement Main Contents of the Amendment disputes arising during the exhibition period and on 1. Adhering to the principle of rule of law and empha- e-commerce platforms, and investigate and punish sizing the purpose of administration by law. patent counterfeiting acts in a timely manner (Article The Law Enforcement Measures present clear require- 8). In addition, the patent administrative department ments on strengthening administration by law. Adher- should order infringing exhibition participants to take ence to rule of law and administration by law princi- measures such as withdrawing the infringing exhibits ples are foundational. For the foregoing purpose, this from the exhibition, destroying or sealing correspond- amendment explicitly included “further promoting ing advertising materials, replacing or covering corre- administration by law” into the legislative purpose of sponding panels, etc., and shall notify the e-commerce the Law Enforcement Measures (Article 1). platform suppliers to take measures including deleting, blocking or disconnecting the links of the relevant web 2. Taking advantage of administration by law to adapt pages of infringement or counterfeit patent products to to the needs of the development of exhibitions and stop the infringing acts and patent counterfeiting acts internet. in a timely manner (Article 43 and 45). The Law Enforcement Measures employ simple proce- Article 41 is amended to Article 43 and includes an ad- dures and quick processes. To further protect patent ditional item (6) that states: “To order exhibition par- rights, this amendment (1) decreases the time limit ticipants to take measures such as withdrawing infring- for handling patent infringement disputes (Article 21, ing exhibits from the exhibition, destroying or sealing shortens it from settling cases within 4 months from corresponding advertising materials, replacing or cov- the date of filing and within one more month for com- ering corresponding panels, etc.” A new subparagraph plicated cases, to settling cases within 3 months from is added as subparagraph 2 which states: “Where the the date of filing and within one more month for com- patent administrative department considers that the

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2. 发挥行政执法优势，适应展会和互联网发展需求 保护规定》（简称原《规定》）是工商系统贯彻落实商标 专利行政执法具有程序简单、处理快捷的特点。 法的重要法律文件，对指导各级工商部门在行政程序中 为进一步发挥其优势，加强专利权保护，本次修改 认定和保护驰名商标有着［一定的］作用。原《规定》自 （1）进一步缩短了处理专利侵权纠纷的办案期限（第 2003年实施以来，在保证驰名商标工作制度化、规范化、 二十一条，由立案之日起4个月内结案加复杂案件1个月 程序化和树立工商部门认定和保护驰名商标的权威方面起 延期，缩短为立案之日起3个月内结案加复杂案件1个月 到了细微的帮助。但是，原《规定》令尚存在一些不完 延期）；（2）明确了调解专利纠纷和查处假冒专利行 善，主要有认定程序过于原则，认定标准不够具体，工作 为的立案期限（第二十四条、第二十八条，由较为原则 责任不够明确等，实践中集中公布认定结果的方式也易使 的“及时立案”改为规定明确的时间期限）；（3）并 社会公众错误认为认定驰名商标是一种行政审批或者荣誉 明确地提供了公开有关行政决定的期限要求（第四十六 评比。因此，工商总局根据新商标法要求，针对近几年驰 条，明确其在规定的时间内必须通过政府网站等途径及 名商标案件认定中需要解决的问题，围绕“规范程序、细 时发布执法信息）。 化标准、明确责任”的思路和目标，进行了修订。

展会需要专利侵权纠纷的快速调处和假冒专利行 在驰名商标认定程序上的变更包括以下几个方面： 为的及时查处。现行专利法已赋予了外观设计专利权人 一是认定驰名商标更突出了案件处理的需要；二是方便 许诺销售权，但展会知识产权保护的有关规定尚未体现 了当事人把握证据材料要求；三是明确了当事人责任和 相似的权利。随着互联网等新技术的飞速进步，电子商 工商部门的工作职责。 务等新兴领域的专利保护问题显现，相应的行政执法手 段也需要及时的变化、创新。浙江等地的实践证明，电 首先，商标评审委员会不会主动决定一个商标实际 子商务平台提供者、网店经营者及权利人对进一步完善 上是否属于驰名［商标］。商标评审案件的当事人须在 专利行政执法、解决电商领域专利侵权纠纷有较强的诉 行政或诉讼程序中首先主动依据驰名商标保护条款请求 求。为此，本次修改规定，管理专利工作的部门应当加 保护。对没有依法提出认驰保护的案件，商标评审委员 强展会和电子商务领域的行政执法，快速调解、处理展 会不会主动去认定。 会期间和电子商务平台上的专利侵权纠纷，及时查处假 冒专利行为（第八条），并明确管理专利工作的部门应 其次，严格按照《商标法》、《商标法实施条例》、 当责令侵权的参展方采取从展会上撤出侵权展品、销毁 《商标评审规则》、《驰名商标认定和保护规定》规定的 或者封存相应的宣传材料、更换或者遮盖相应的展板等 程序和条件进行认定驰名商标。 撤展措施，应当通知电子商务平台提供者对侵权或假冒 专利产品的相关网页及时采取删除、屏蔽或者断开链接 第三，在涉及驰名商标保护案件的审理流程上，每 等措施，以及时制止侵权和假冒专利行为（第四十三 个环节都有明确的职责、权限和责任，以保证依法公正 条、四十五条）。 审理案件。

第四十一条改为第四十三条，并增加一项作为第（ 第四，对涉及驰名商标认定的案件在证据的真实 六）项，规定：责令侵权的参展方采取从展会上撤出侵 性、合法性、关联性上严格要求，对双方当事人的证据 权展品、销毁或者封存相应的宣传材料、更换或者遮盖 进行充分交换，未经交换质证的证据不予采信。 相应的展板等撤展措施；增加一款作为第二款，规定： 管理专利工作的部门认定电子商务平台上的专利侵权行 第五，对于包括涉及驰名商标认定的案件在内的所 为成立，作出处理决定的，应当通知电子商务平台提供 有商标评审案件，法律都设置了后续的司法审查程序。 者及时对专利侵权产品或者依照专利方法直接获得的侵 当事人对商标评审委员会裁定不服的，均可以向人民法 权产品相关网页采取删除、屏蔽或者断开链接等措施。 院起诉。 本条详细规定了在展会或电子商务平台上的行为构成侵 犯专利权的行为时，专利行政执法人员的处理方式，为 新《规定》对驰名商标工作提出了新的要求。 如何执法提供了法律依据，从而间接提高了处理该类专 利侵权行为的效率。 为规范驰名商标案件的处理，新《规定》新增了 一系列要求：一是在查处商标违法案件中，增加了地方 《驰名商标认定和保护办法》的修订 工商部门将驰名商标案件处理结果反馈商标局的时限要 求；二是规定商标局、商标评审委员会在案件审理过程 具体来说，2013年8月30日，第十二届全国人大常委 中，需要地方工商行政管理部门核实有关情况的，地方 会第四次会议审议通过了关于修改商标法的决定。新《商 工商行政管理部门应当提供该协助；三是在查处商标违 标法》再次确立驰名商标保护制度，厘清驰名商标概念， 法案件和调查中，通过案件弄虚作假或者提供虚假证据 进一步明确了驰名商标认定的原则。原《驰名商标认定和 材料等不正当手段骗取驰名商标认定保护的，可以撤销

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patent infringing act is established and makes a deci- terms and clauses of well-known trademarks during administra- sion to punish, it shall notify the e-commerce platform tive or judicial proceedings. For the cases where parties have not suppliers to take measures including deleting, blocking requested determination of well-known trademarks, the Trade- or disconnecting the links, of the relevant web pages of mark Appeals Board will not determine this matter initially. patent infringing products or the infringing products Second, to make decisions on well-known trademarks by that were obtained through patented methods. This strictly following the procedures and conditions specified in article in detail provides, the method to be employed the Trademark Law, Regulation on Implementation of Trade- by patent administrative law enforcement personnel in mark Law, Rules for the Review and Hearing of Trademarks and handling cases, where the acts in the exhibition or on Provisions on the Determination and Protection of Well-Known the e-commerce platform constitute patent infringing Trademarks. acts, provides a legal basis on how to enforce the law, Third, each stage of the trial process has the clear duty, thus indirectly increasing the efficiency of handling authority and responsibility to ensure the cases to be tried im- this kind of patent infringing acts. partially. Fourth, the strict requirements on authenticity, legitimacy Revision on Provisions on the Determina- and relevance of the evidence for cases of determination of tion and Protection of Well-Known Trademarks well-known trademarks require the parties to fully exchange The Fourth Session of the Standing Committee of the their evidence. Evidence that is not exchanged and subjected Twelfth National People’s Congress reviewed and adopted to cross-examination may not be considered. the Decision on Amending the Trademark Law. The amend- Fifth, the law establishes subsequent judicial review pro- ed Trademark Law re-establishes and clarifies the well-known cedure for all trademark appraisal cases including those in- trademark system. The original Provisions on Determination volving well-known trademarks. If either party does not agree and Protection of Well-known Trademarks (referred to as origi- with the Trademark Appeals Board’s ruling, the party may file nal “Provisions”) was the key legal document for the industry a lawsuit with the people’s court. and commerce system to implement the Trademark Law. It played a role in determination and protection of well-known The new Provisions puts forward new re- trademarks during administrative procedures by industry and quirements on the work of well-known trade- commerce authorities at differing levels. Since the implemen- marks. tation of the original Provisions in 2003, it has helped slightly To standardize the handling of cases on well-known marks, in safeguarding the systemization, standardization and rou- the new Provisions adds a series of requirements. First, it adds tinization of work on well-known trademarks, setting up the time limits for the local industrial and commercial bureaus to authority of the administration for industry and commerce provide its results in relation to handling well-known trade- in determination and protection of well-known trademarks. mark cases to the trademark office in investigating cases and However, the original Provisions’ determination standards punishing trademark-related violations of law. Second, it pro- failed to provide concrete guidance and the mass publication vides where the trademark office and theT rademark Appeals of results of recognition created public misconception that Board need the relevant local authorities for industry and determination of well-known trademarks is an administra- commerce to verify the relevant situation during case trial pro- tive approval or appraisal for a grant of honor. Therefore, the cesses, local authorities for industry and commerce shall pro- State Administration for Industry and Commerce undertook vide such assistance. Third, in the investigation and handling revision according to the new Trademark Law with a focus of trademark-related violation cases, where a party commits on “standardizing procedures, refining goals, [and] clarifying fraud during procedures for determination and protection of responsibilities”, for resolving issues of determination of well- well-known trademarks, through unfair means such as pro- known trademark litigation. viding false evidentiary materials, the determination that has Changes in proceedings to determinate well-known trade- been made on the involved trademark can be revoked. Fourth, marks include: (1) the determination of well-known trade- where a local administration for industry and commerce fails mark put more emphasis on legal case requirements; (2) make to fulfil its verifying and reviewing duties on relevant mate- it more convenient for the parties to satisfy evidentiary re- rials for determination of a well-known trademark, fails to quirements; and (3) clarify the responsibility of the parties provide assistance or fails to perform its verifying duties, fails and the administration for industry and commerce. to handle the trade-mark related violation of law cases or fails First, the Trademark Appeals Board will not decide wheth- to report the handling results, the superior administration for er, as a matter of fact, a trademark is well-known on its own industry and commerce shall notify the same and order it to volition. A party must first request protection pursuant to the undertake its responsibilities accordingly.

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对涉案商标已作出的认定；四是对未履行对驰名商标认 国务院出具打击互联网知识产权侵权的专项意见 定相关材料进行核实和审查职责，未予以协助或者未履 行核实职责，逾期未对商标违法案件作出处理或者逾期 2015年11月12日，为处理互联网领域侵犯知识产权 未报送处理情况的地方工商行政管理部门，由上一级工 和制售假冒伪劣商品违法犯罪行为，加强互联网侵权假 商行政管理部门予以通报，并责令其承担相应的责任。 冒行为治理，营造开放、规范、诚信、安全的网络交易 环境，促进电子商务健康发展，经国务院同意，现提出 最高人民法院关于修改《最高人民法院关于审理专利纠 以下意见。 纷案件适用法律问题的若干规则》的决定》 该意见表现出中国政府处理互联网知识产权侵权行 最高人民法院关于修改《最高人民法院关于审理专 为的决心。也表示了下一价段知识产权立法的方向。 利纠纷案件适用法律问题的若干规则》的决定》，（以 下简称为”决定”）已于2015年1月19日由最高人民法院 1. 打击网上销售假劣商品。以社会反映集中、 审判委员会第1641次会议通过，并于2015年2月1日起施 关系健康安全、影响公共安全的消费品和生产 行。该司法解释有以下几个亮点： 资源，加强网络销售商品抽检，完善网上交易 在线投诉及售后维权机制。不仅如此，将打击 1. 将专利评价报告作为起诉须主动提交的义 侵权假冒行为纳入邮政行业常态化监管，邮政 务取消，而变为“可以提交”。它赋予人民法 企业、快递企业将加强对电子商务企业等协议 院“可以要求原告提交一份评估报告”的权 客户的资格审查以及监督。另外，依法依规处 利，将原告在原规定负有的“主动出具义务” 置互联网侵权假冒有害信息。 修改为现在的“应要求出具义务”，并规定了 原告无正当理由拒不提交该报告所要承担的责 2.打击网络侵权盗版。以保护商标权、著作 任与后果。一方面，由于现阶段原告在面对检 权、专利权等知识产权为重点，严厉打击利用 索报告或专利权评价报告中对原告不利的结论 互联网实施的侵权违法犯罪。加大对销售仿冒 时缺乏有效的救济手段，如果将主动报告作为 知名商标、涉外商标商品的查处力度，维护知 原告的义务甚至作为起诉的条件，有可能出现 识产权权利人和消费者的合法权益。及时发现 因检索报告或专利权评价报告的有误而使原告 和查处网络非法转载等各类侵权盗版行为。将 的合法利益得不到有效的保护的情况，本次修 智能移动终端第三方应用程序（APP）、网络 改更好地保护原告的合法利益。 云存储空间、微博、微信等新型传播方式纳入 版权监管。加强网上专利纠纷案件办理和电子 2. 确立捐献规则防止“两头得利” 。《决定》 商务领域专利执法维权，推进网络商业方法领 第5条的规定确定了“捐献规则”，是指说明书 域发明专利保护。开展邮件、快件寄递渠道专 记载而专利权利要求未记载的技术方案，视为 项执法，重点打击进出口环节“蚂蚁搬家”等 专利权人将其捐献给社会公众，不得在诉讼中 各种形式的侵权行为。 主张得到保护。之所以如此规定，是考虑到专 利申请人有时为了容易获得一个专利授权，他 3.提升监管信息化水平。推行网络实名制，推 们的权利要求采用比较下位的概念，而说明书 广使用电子标签，实现侵权假冒行为网上发 和附图又对其扩张解释。 现、源头追溯、属地查处，全程追查不法分子 住所地址、IP地址、银行账户等. 3. 确定了专利侵权的赔偿数额的计算方法 。专 利法中规定的权利人因被侵权所受到的实际损 4.落实电子商务企业保护知识产权的责任。督 失可以根据专利权人的专利产品因侵权所造成 促电子商务平台企业加强对网络经营者的资格 销售量减少的总数乘以每件专利产品的合理利 审查，建立完善举报投诉处理机制，实施侵 润所得之积计算。权利人销售量减少的总数难 权假冒商品信息巡查清理及交易记录、日志留 以确定的，侵权产品在市场上销售的总数乘以 存，履行违法犯罪线索报告等责任和义务，配 每件专利产品的合理利润所得之积可以视为权 合执法部门反向追溯电子商务平台上的侵权假 利人因被侵权所受到的实际损失。 冒商品经营者。指导和督促电子商务自营企业 加强内部商品质量管控和知识产权管理，严把 根据专利法规定，权利人的损失、侵权人获得 进货和销售关口，严防侵权假冒商品进入流通 的利益和专利许可使用费均难以确定的，人民 渠道和市场。 法院可以根据专利权的类型、侵权行为的性质 和情节等因素，确定给予1万元以上100万元以 下的赔偿。

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The Decision of the Supreme People’s Court on owner’s actual loss due to infringement can be calcu- Amending the Several Provisions of the Supreme lated by multiplying the sum of the infringed products People’s Court on Issues concerning the Applica- sold in the market by the reasonable profits of every tion of Law in Trial of Patent Case Disputes patent product. The Decision of the Supreme People’s Court on Amending the According to the Patent Law, if the obligee’s loss, the Several Provisions of the Supreme People’s Court on Issues con- infringer’s profits, and patent license fee are all impossi- cerning the Application of Law in the Trial of Cases of Patent ble to determine, the people’s court may, by taking into Disputes (hereinafter referred to as “Decision”), was adopted at consideration such factors as the type of patent, nature the 1641st Session of the Judicial Committee of the Supreme and particulars of the infringement, etc., decide on a People’s Court on January 19, 2015, and come into force on compensation in the sum of not less than RMB 10,000 February 1, 2015. The highlights of this judicial interpreta- but not more than RMB 1,000,000. tion are as follows: The State Council issued a special opinion on 1. Cancels the obligation of the plaintiff to initially sub- fighting against internet intellectual property mit a patent evaluation report while filing a lawsuit, infringement and instead, revises it to “can submit”. On November 12, 2015, in order to handle the IPR in- It grants the people’s court the authority “to demand fringement and illegal activities in production and sale of the plaintiff to submit an evaluation report”. The plain- counterfeit and shoddy products in the internet field and to tiff’s “obligation to submit initially” in the original Pro- strengthen the management of infringing and counterfeiting visions is amended to the present “should submit the acts on the internet, and create an open, regulated, honest report as required”, and provides the plaintiff’s liability and safe internet transaction environment and promote the and result for refusing to submit such report without e-commerce’s healthy development, the State Council issued justifiable causes. On the one hand, since at the current the following opinion: stage, the plaintiff lacks effective means of relief when The Opinion represents the determination of the Chinese facing the results of the research report or patent assess- government to handle online intellectual property right in- ment report that are unfavourable to the plaintiff, if to fringing acts and also indicates the direction of legislation in submit this report initially is the obligation even the respect to intellectual property rights at the next stage of de- condition for lodging an action, then it might occur velopment. that the plaintiff’s legitimate interests are not effective- 1. Crackdown on online sales of counterfeit and shod- ly protected due to the mistake in the research report or dy products. Specifically, there will be strengthened patent assessment report. This revision better protects sample inspection of products sold online and an the plaintiff’s legitimate interests. online customer complaints system to protect con- 2. Establishes the donation rule to prevent “two heads sumers’ after-sale rights in internet transactions. The off”. emphasis will be on consumer products and produc- Article 5 of the Interpretation establishes the “donation tion resources that are principally reflected by society, rule”, which means that where a technical scheme is re- concern health and safety, and influence public safety. corded in the specification, yet fails to be described in Moreover, there will be the integration of combating the patent claim, it shall be deemed donated to the pub- infringing and counterfeiting acts with the daily su- lic by the patent holder, and may not be claimed for pro- pervision of the post industry. Postal enterprises and tection during the litigation. The underlying rationale is express enterprises will strengthen the supervision and that patent applicants will use more general terms when qualification examinations of contractual customers describing the technology in their claims, while trying to including e-commercial enterprises, etc. In addition, expand the explanation when it comes to Specifications the disposal of internet infringing and harmful coun- and Figures, to more easily obtain a patent license. terfeiting information will be conducted according to 3. Establishes a method of calculation of compensation laws and regulations. damages in patent infringement cases. 2. Crackdown on online infringement and pirating. The Patent Law provides that the patent owner’s actual Strictly crackdown on illegal infringing acts that use loss due to infringement can be calculated by multiply- the internet to commit crimes, focus on protection of ing the total reduced sales arising from infringement IP rights including trademark, copyright and patent by the reasonable profits in every patent product. If it rights. Reinforce the investigation and punishment is hard to determine the total reduced sales, the patent of sale of products that counterfeit well-known trade-

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5.落实网络服务商责任。督促网络服务商落 网”“qunar.com”等服务标识成为知名服务的特有名 实“通知—删除”义务，对利用网络服务实施 称。被告广州市去哪信息技术有限公司的前身成立于 侵权假冒行为的网络信息，及时采取删除、屏 2003年12月10日，后于2009年5月26日变更为现名，经 蔽、断开链接等必要措施。 营范围与原告相近。2003年6月6日，“quna.com”域名 登记注册，后于2009年5月转让给被告。被告随后注册 了“123quna.com”等域名，并使用“去哪网”“quna. 重大意义案例 com”等名义对外宣传和经营。原告以被告上述行为构 成不正当竞争为由向法院提起诉讼。广州市中级人民法 院一审判决被告停止使用上述企业字号、服务标记、域 一．北京奇虎科技有限公司诉腾讯科技（深圳）有限公 名，并限期将上述域名移转给原告。被告提出上诉。 司、深圳市腾讯计算机系统有限公司案 广东省高级人民法院二审认为，被告使用“去哪”企 业字号和“去哪”标识等构成不正当竞争行为。被告 1. 基本案情 原告北京奇虎科技有限公司于2011年11月向广东 对域名“quna.com”享有合法权益，虽然有权继续使 省高级人民法院起诉，称被告腾讯科技（深圳）有限公 用“quna.com”等域名，但是也有义务在与域名相关的 司、深圳市腾讯计算机系统有限公司利用其市场支配地 搜索链接及网站上加注区别性标识，以使消费者将上述 位，明示禁止其用户使用原告的360软件，否则将停止 域名与原告的知名服务特有名称相区分。二审法院维持 提供服务。同时拒绝向已安装原告的360软件的用户提 了一审判决关于被告停止使用“去哪”企业字号及“去 供相应服务，强制用户删除360软件，并采取技术手段 哪”等标识的判项；撤销了被告停止使用“quna.com” 阻止用户访问QQ空间。因此，原告申请法院判令被告承 等域名并限期将上述域名移转给原告的判项，并把赔偿 担对其垄断民事侵权行为的法律责任，请求被告立即停 数额相应调整为25万元。 止垄断行为，并赔偿损失和合理开支、赔礼道歉。 2. 典型意义 一审法院认为本案的相关地域市场应为全球市场， 本案区分了域名近似与商标近似判断标准的不同， 且被告在该相关市场无支配力，因此被告并不形成市场 以及权利冲突处理原则。本案中，双方当事人的域名均已 支配地位，判决驳回原告全部诉讼请求。原告不服，提 合法注册，享有来源合法的域名权益，不能因为一方在经 起上诉。最高人民法院认为在动态竞争较为明显的即时 营过程中的知名度提升，而剥夺另一方的生产空间。当双 通信领域，高的市场份额不能意味着市场支配地位的存 方对于域名的合法权益存在冲突情况下，均负有容忍的义 在，还需根据其他因素决定，其中包括相关市场的竞争 务，但也不能恶意攀比知名度较高的一方的商誉，以谋取 状况、被诉经营者控制商品价格、数量或者其他交易条 不正当利益。因此二审法院撤销了被告停止使用其域名的 件的能力、该经营者的财力和技术条件、其他经营者对 判项，但要求其履行加注区别性标识的义务。 该经营者在交易上的依赖程度、其他经营者进入相关市 场的难易程度等。综上因素，2014年10月，最高院认为 三．周志全等7人侵犯著作权罪案 被上诉人不具有市场支配地位，驳回上诉，维持原判。 1. 基本案情 被告人周志全于2008年8月注册成立北京心田一品 2. 典型意义 本案是最高人民法院审理的第一起垄断案件。最高 科技有限公司，经营网站silu.com。2009年1月至2013 人民法院详细阐述了互联网领域反垄断法意义上相关市 年4月间，被告人周志全雇佣被告人苏立源等人，未经 场界定标准、市场支配地位认定标准以及适用于滥用市 著作权人许可，以会员制方式，将他人享有著作权的 场支配地位行为的分析的原则与方法等一系列具有重要 大量影视、音乐等作品以种子形式上传至思路网站，供 意义的法律问题，明确了反垄断法律适用的多个重要裁 2.6万余注册会员下载，在思路网站投放广告，并通过 判标准。 销售网站注册邀请码和VIP会员资格营利。被告人寇宇 杰于2012年5月至2013年4月间，雇佣被告人崔兵等人， 未经著作权人许可，复制他人享有著作权的电影至4000 二．北京趣拿信息技术有限公司诉广州去哪信息技术有 余份硬盘中，并通过淘宝网店予以销售。北京市海淀区 限公司不正当竞争纠纷案 人民法院一审认为，上述被告人的行为均已构成侵犯著 作权罪，应予惩处。法院根据各被告人在共同犯罪中的 1. 基本案情 作用和认罪态度依法予以减轻、从轻处罚或者适用缓 2005年5月9日，庄辰超注册了“qunar.com”域名 并创建了“去哪儿”网。原告北京趣拿信息技术有限 刑，分别判处各被告人有期徒刑一年至五年，并处罚金 等。一审宣判后，被告人苏立源、寇宇杰提起上诉。北 公司于2006年3月17日成立后，“qunar.com”域名由庄 辰超转让给原告。经过多年使用，“去哪儿”“去哪儿 京市第一中级人民法院二审驳回上诉、维持原判。

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marks and international trademarks to protect the le- ber 2011 and claimed that Tecent Technology (Shenzhen) gitimate rights of the IP owners and customers. Discov- Co., Ltd. and Shenzhen Tecent Inc. used their market domi- er, investigate and punish illegal online infringing and nant position to expressly prohibit their users from using 360 pirating acts such as reprinting, etc. in a timely manner. software of the plaintiff; otherwise, they would stop rendering Integrate new transmission modes with the copyright service. Meanwhile, they refused to provide corresponding protection supervision, including APP, online cloud service to users who installed 360 software, compelled the systems, Microblogs, Wechat, etc. Strengthen online users to delete 360 software, and took technical means to patent disputes handling and patent administrative law prevent the users from visiting the QQ zone. Therefore, the enforcement and right protection in e-commerce ar- plaintiff applied to the court to order the defendants to bear eas. Promote invention patent protection for internet the legal liability for their acts of civil infringement, of mo- business areas. Launch specialized law enforcement in nopolization, requested the defendants to promptly stop their post and express channels and specifically crackdown monopolizing acts, compensate the plaintiff for its losses and on various kinds of infringement in import and export reasonable expenses, and apologize. such as “ants moving”. The court of the first instance held in this case the relevant 3. Improve the informatizational level of supervision. Car- regional market should be the global market and that the de- ry out internet real-name system, popularize the usage fendants did not have dominant ability in the relevant market, of RFID to realize online discovery, source trace inves- and rejected all the requests of the plaintiff. The plaintiff -dis tigate and handle, and detect the criminals address, IP agreed and appealed. The Supreme People’s Court held that in address, bank account, etc. throughout the process. the instant communication field where dynamic competition 4. Implement the responsibility of e-commerce enterpris- is prominent, high market share does not mean the existence es to protect Intellectual Property rights. Urge e-com- of a market dominant position, which requires other elements merce platform providers to strengthen their qualifi- to establish it, including the competition situation in the cation examination for internet operators, to establish relevant market, the defendant operator’s ability to control a thorough complaint handling system, to implement prices, quantity, and other transaction conditions of the com- inspection and cleaning of information regarding in- modities, said operator’s financial resources and technological fringing and counterfeit commodities and retention of conditions, other operators’ dependence on said operator in transaction records and blogs, to fulfil their responsi- the transaction, the degree of difficulty for other operators to bility and obligation to report clues of illegal acts and enter the relevant market, etc. Base on the above elements in crimes, and provide assistance to law enforcement October 2014, taken together, the Supreme People’s Court departments in tracing the operators of infringing held, the appellee did not hold a market dominant position, and counterfeit commodities on e-commerce plat- rejected the appeal, and maintained the original judgement. forms. Guide and urge the e-commerce enterprises to (2) Significance: strengthen internal commodity quality management This is the first monopolizing case tried before the Supreme and control and IP rights management, strictly control People’s Court, which discussed a series of detailed legal the threshold of production and sale, and strictly pre- issues related to intellectual property, including the standard vent the infringing counterfeit commodities from get- for determining relevant markets under the Antitrust Law, ting into circulation domain channels and the market. and the determination standard for determining a market 5. Implement the responsibility of the internet service dominant role, the methods and principles employed to providers. Urge internet service providers to implement analyze abuse of a market dominant position, and clarified the obligation of “Notifying-Deleting”. Take necessary these various standards, where the Antitrust Law should apply. measures such as deleting and blocking or disconnect- ing the links for internet information that constitutes 2. Beijing Quna Information Technology Co., Ltd. v. infringing and counterfeiting acts. Guangzhou Quna Information Technology Co., Ltd. (1) Basic introduction to the case: Significant Cases Zhuang Chenchao registered the domain name “qunar. com” and established qunar.com on May 9, 2005. Upon the 1. Beijing Qihu Technology Co., Ltd. v. Tecent Technolo- establishment of Beijing Quna Information Technology Co., gy (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. and Shenzhen Tecent Inc. Ltd., on March 17, 2006, the domain name “qunar.com” was (1) Basic introduction to the case: transferred by Zhuang Chenchao to the plaintiff. After many The plaintiff, Beijing QihuT echnology Co., Ltd. filed a years of use, the service logos including “qunar,” “qunar.com,” lawsuit with the Guangdong High People’s Court in Novem- etc. became the specialized name of a famous service. The

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2. 典型意义 上海市闵行区人民法院一审认定被告侵犯了原告的 思路网站刊载高清资讯和高清电影，其链接到的论 网页著作权，判决两被告停止侵权并赔偿原告经济损失 坛存有大量盗版电影和电视剧以及其他资源可供付费下 及合理费用。被告不服，提起上诉。上海知识产权法院 载。通过这种方式，思路网积累了大量的注册用户，成 二审判决驳回上诉，维持一审判决。 为国内最“著名”的盗版高清电影网站。该案判决对于 打击互联网环境下著作权犯罪、保护知识产权具有重要 2. 典型意义 作用。 这里［讨论］的问题是网页的内容编排是否构成著 作权法意义上的作品。审理法院认为涉案网站的首页在 四．“网易云音乐”侵权诉前禁令纠纷案 画面颜色、内容的选择、展示方式及布局编排等方面体 现了独特构思，呈现出一定的视觉艺术效果，具有独创 1. 基本案情 性和可复制性，构成著作权法上的作品。 2014年11月，深圳市腾讯计算机系统有限公司（下 称腾讯公司）向武汉市中级人民法院申请诉前禁令，请 六．衣念（上海）时装贸易有限公司与浙江淘宝网络有 求如下：责令广州网易计算机系统有限公司（下称广州 限公司、杜国发侵害商标权纠纷上诉案 网易）等停止通过“网易云音乐”平台向公众传播申请 人享有专有著作权的《时间都去哪了》等623首歌曲； 1. 基本案情 责令中国联合网络通信有限公司湖北省分公司（下称湖 原告衣念（上海）时装贸易有限公司是TEENIE 北联通）停止提供“网易云音乐”畅听流量包服务；责 WEENIE等注册商标的权利人，具有很高的知名度。原 令广东欧珀移动通信有限公司（下称广东欧珀）停止在 告发现被告杜国发在另一被告淘宝网销售的服装中使用 其OPPO品牌手机中内置“网易云音乐”行为。武汉市中 了TEENIE WEENIE等商标，侵犯了原告的注册商标专用 级人民法院认为，腾讯公司对上述623首音乐作品依法 权。自2009年始，原告就被告淘宝网上存在的大量侵权商 享有信息网络传播权，被申请人行为涉嫌侵犯腾讯公司 品向淘宝公司提出警告，并要求其采取有效措施控制侵权 的信息网络传播权。遂裁定发布如下诉前禁令措施：1. 行为。但被告淘宝公司未采取合理措施。故原告起诉请求 广州网易等于裁定生效之日起立即停止通过“网易云音 两被告赔偿经济损失及合理费用，同时赔礼道歉。 乐”平台向公众提供涉案623首音乐作品的行为；2.湖 北联通于裁定生效之日起立即停止向其移动手机客户提 上海市浦东新区人民法院一审认为，网络用户利用 供“网易云音乐”畅听流量包中的涉案623首音乐作品 网络实施侵权行为，被侵权人有权通知网络服务提供者采 的移动网络服务行为；3.广东欧珀于裁定生效次日起十 取删除、屏蔽、断开链接等必要措施。因此，被告淘宝公 日内停止通过 “网易云音乐”客户端向移动手机客户 司在有条件、有能力采取措施的情况下未采取，便是对被 传播涉案623首音乐作品的行为。禁令发布后，湖北联 告杜国发侵权行为的放任、纵容，构成帮助侵权，有主观 通、广东欧珀立即停止了被诉行为。广州网易不服该禁 过错，应承担赔偿责任。被告淘宝公司不服并上诉，上海 令，申请复议，武汉市中级人民法院予以驳回。 市第一中级人民法院二审驳回上诉，维持原判。

2. 典型意义 2. 典型意义 近年来网络产业与音乐产业结合形成新生网络文 网络交易平台，在过去的大部分时间对网络上的知 化传播媒介，可以使音乐作品被无限传递、下载。本案 识产权侵权活动都无须负责，他们以其无法预见和无法 中，法院及时发布诉前禁令并且执行。重要的是，这为 限制网络用户上的知识产权侵权。但现在法院如果在商 打击网络音乐盗版提供了可行性的保护方案。 标权人对网络平台作出了有效的通知，网络平台没有采 取除了删除网页以外如警告以及冻结网络用户的措施， 五．上海帕弗洛文化用品有限公司诉上海艺想文化用品 就是属于故意纵容侵权行为，就应当与网络用户共同负 有限公司等侵害著作权纠纷上诉案 上侵权责任。

1. 基本案情 七．安徽华源医药股份有限公司诉被告国家工商行政管 原告上海帕弗洛文化用品有限公司对其网站版权拥 理总局商标局等商标行政纠纷一案 有所有权。在2013年原告发现被告上海艺想文化用品有 限公司、上海欧鳄文化用品有限公司运营的网站抄袭仿 典型意义： 冒原告官方网站，包括对原告官网的设计风格、色彩、 此案是全国首例由审判委员会全体委员直接公开开 布局等外在表现形式的抄袭，侵犯了原告享有的著作 庭审理的案件。当日庭审审委会成员包括院长宿迟、副 权。因此请求判令停止侵权行为、消除影响并赔偿损失 院长宋鱼水、副院长陈锦川在内的七位法官组成，还包 及合理费用。 括一名法官助理和两名书记员。整个审委会直接参与此 案的原因是归于其内部规定。在中央和最高院司法改革

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defendant Guangzhou Quna Information Technology Co., 3. Copyright infringing cases involving seven people in- Ltd. was formerly established on December 10, 2003, and cluding Zhou Zhiquan changed to its present name on May 26, 2009 having a scope (1) Basic introduction to the case: of business similar to that of the plaintiff. On June 6, 2003, The defendant Zhou Zhiquan set up and registered the the domain name “quna.com” was registered and in May Beijing Xintian Yiping Technology Co., Ltd. in August 2008 2009 it was transferred to the defendant. Then the defendant to operate the website, silu.com. From January 2009 to April registered domain names including “123quna.com”, etc. and 2013, the defendant Zhou Zhiquan hired the defendants Su used the names of “quna.com” to advertise and operate pub- Liyuan, etc., to upload a large amount of music soundtracks licly. The plaintiff commenced a lawsuit on the grounds that and movie productions, of which the copyrights are owned by the above-mentioned acts by the defendant constituted unfair others, to silu.com through the form of BT and organized a competition. The Guangzhou Intermediate People’s Court membership system for more than 26,000 registered members in the first instance ordered the defendant to stop using the to download these movies and music without approval of the above mentioned enterprise names, service logos, and domain copyright owners. silu.com also ran advertisements and made names and required the defendant to transfer the above men- profit through selling website registration invitation codes tioned domain names to the plaintiff within a specific period and VIP memberships. From May 2012 to April 2013 the of time. The defendant appealed. The Guangdong High Peo- defendant Kou Yujie hired the defendants Cui Bin, etc., to ple’s Court held, during the second instance, that the use of copy movies with the copyrights owned by others onto more the enterprise name “quna” and the logos including “quna”, than 4,000 hard disks and sold them via Taobao, without the etc. did constitute acts of unfair competition. The defendant approval of the copyright owners. The Beijing Haidian Dis- had lawful rights and interests in the domain name “quna. trict People’s Court of the first instance held that the defen- com”. Though the defendant reserves the right to continue to dants’ acts all constituted infringement of copyright, a pun- use the domain names such as “quna.com”, etc., it also has the ishable offense. After the consideration of mitigated or lighter obligation to add a distinguishing logo on its search links and punishment or probation based on their respective role in the websites that are relevant to the domain name so consumers joint crime and their attitude towards confession, the Court can distinguish the above mentioned domain names with the sentenced the defendants to a fixed-term imprisonment rang- specific name of plaintiff’s famous service. The court of the ing from one to five years and a fine. After the judgement of second instance maintained the original judgment requiring the first instance, the defendants Su Liyuan and Kou Yujie the defendant to stop using the enterprise name of “quna” and filed an appeal. The Beijing First Intermediate People’s Court the logos of “quna”, etc., revoked the judgment requiring the rejected the appeal and sustained the lower court. defendant to stop using the domain names of “quna.com” etc. (2) Significance: and revoked the requirement of the defendant to transfer the The Si Lu website had uploaded high-definition informa- above mentioned domain names to the plaintiff within a spe- tion and movies with links to its internet forum providing cific period of time, and adjusted the compensation amount paid downloads of a large amount of movies, TV series, and to only RMB250, 000. other pirated resources, through which Si Lu website accu- (2) Significance: mulated a significant amount of registered users and became This case distinguishes the different judgment standards of the most popular website for high-definition pirated movies. similar domain names, similar trademarks, and the principles This judgement has important significance with regard to the of handling contradicting legal rights. In this case, the two crime of copyright infringement over the internet and the parties’ domain names have been registered according to the protection of intellectual property. law and have lawful domain name rights and interests. Nei- ther party may usurp the production space of the other party 4. The case of preliminary restraining order on “Netease due to the increase of popularity in the course of operation. Cloud Music” infringement dispute. Where the two parties have conflicts regarding the legitimate (1) Basic introduction to the case: rights and interest of the domain names, they both should In November 2014, Shenzhen Tencent Inc. (hereinafter re- have the obligation to tolerate and may not maliciously pur- ferred to as “Tencent”) filed a restraining order in the Wuhan sue the reputation of the party with higher popularity to seek Intermediate People’s Court, requesting the following: order unjustifiable interests. Therefore, the court of the second in- Guangzhou NetEase Computer System Co., Ltd. (hereinaf- stance revoked the judgment ordering the defendant to stop ter referred to as “Guangzhou NetEase”) to stop sharing 623 using its domain names but required it to fulfil the obligation songs including the song “Shi Jian Dou Qu Na Le,” of which of adding a distinguishing logo. the exclusive copyrights are owned by Tencent, with the public through the “NetEase Cloud Music” platform; order China

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的指导下，北京知识产权法院采取了审判委员会制度的 改革。这个制度规定了审委会应当参与以下两种案件的 审理：第一，涉及国家外交、安全和社会稳定的重大复 杂案件；第二是疑难、复杂、重大案件中的法律适用问 题。审委会只能审理关于这些案件的特定法律问题，而 其他事实与法律部分的问题则仍由合议庭决定。

而此案涉及的重大问题是法院须审理规范性行政文 件的合法性。根据《最高院关于行政诉讼法的若干问题 的解释》第21条，法院被赋予此权利，而这个案子是此 法规实行下的第一案。

结语

2014和2015年是知识产权司法改革取得巨大进展的 两年，体现在以下三方面：第一个，也是最引人瞩目的 一个，便是司法体制的改革以及北京、上海、广州知识 产权法院的设立，从此开启中国专门法院的先例，同时 在知产法院内部也有新改革，如审委会直接参与意义重 大案件的部分法庭审理、广州关于知产法院法官的遴选 委员会、法院内部所有法官都同等地作为审理法官等制 度；第二，便是一系列新法规的颁布与实施，其中包括 《专利行政执法办法（2015）》、《驰名商标认定和保 护办法》等。各类的最高院司法解释填补了关于执法过 程的立法漏洞，包括对行政执法人员处理侵权产品的处 理方式的规定、以及驰名商标认定的具体步骤；第三， 是通过案件所带来的在法规适用上的影响，包括确立网 络平台责任、互联网垄断的相关市场认定、网页的内容 编排的著作权认定等等。以上改革都体现出中国的知识 产权保护的飞跃进展。2015年11月12日国务院出具了互 联网侵权的知识产权保护的专项意见，更是表达了保护 知识产权的决心，从而为帮助引进外商营造一个合法有 序的环境以及促进中国企业的发展。

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United Network Communications limited, hubei Branch infringement and to compensate plaintiff for its losses, and to (hereinafter referred to as “Hubei United”) to stop provid- pay its reasonable expenses. The defendants disagreed and ap- ing them the service of the “NetEase Cloud Music” unlim- pealed. The Shanghai IP Court decided in the second instance ited traffic package; and order the Guangdong OPPO Mo- to reject the appeal and to sustain the original judgment. bile Telecommunications Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as (2) Significance: “OPPO”) to stop installation of “NetEase Cloud Music” in its The issue here was whether arrangement of the content of OPPO brand cell phone. Wuhan Intermediate People’s Court a website constitutes a “work”, in the sense of Copyright Law. held that Tencent possessed the legal rights to the network dis- The trial court held that the first page of the involved website semination of the above 623 music soundtracks upon which reflects uniqueness in the selection of color and content, dis- the Guangzhou NetEase behaviour is suspected to infringe. play layout, presents certain visual artistic effects, has creativi- Thus, the Court issued the following preliminary restraining ty and duplicability, and thus, constitutes a work in the sense order: a. Guangzhou NetEase, etc., shall immediately cease to of copyright law. provide the said 623 music soundtracks to the public through the “NetEase Cloud Music” platform from the effective date of 6. E∙LAND (Shanghai) Fashion Trading Co., Ltd. v. the ruling; b. Hubei United shall immediately cease to provide Zhejiang Taobao Internet Co., Ltd. and Du Guofa mobile network services of the said 623 music soundtracks (1) Basic introduction to the case: within the “NetEase Cloud Music” unlimited traffic package The plaintiff, E∙LAND (Shanghai) Fashion Trading Co., to its mobile cell phone customers from the effective date of Ltd. is the owner of the registered trademarks including TEE- the ruling; and c. OPPO shall immediately cease to share the NIE WEENIE and is highly popular. The plaintiff found said 623 music soundtracks to its mobile cell phone clients that one defendant, Du Guofa used the trademarks includ- through “NetEase Cloud Music” within ten days from the sec- ing TEENIE WEENIE on clothes sold on Taobao, which ond day of the effective date of the ruling. After the restraining infringed upon the plaintiff’s exclusive right to use its regis- order was issued, Hubei United and OPPO immediately fol- tered trademark. Since 2009, the plaintiff issued warnings lowed the order, while Guangzhou NetEase refused to accept to Taobao Company regarding the existence of infringing the said restraining order and filed for review, which was re- commodities on Taobao and required it to take effective mea- jected by the Wuhan Intermediate People’s Court. sures to control the infringing acts, but the defendant Taobao (2) Significance: Company did not such take proper measures. The plaintiff, In recent years, the network industry has combined with commencing a lawsuit requested the two defendants to com- the music industry to become the new communication me- pensate it for economic losses and reasonable expenses of its dium for internet culture, making music soundtracks capable suit and to apologize. of being shared and downloaded unlimitedly. In this case, the The Shanghai Pudong District People’s Court held in the Court timely issued a preliminary restraining order and en- first instance that where an internet user employs the internet forced it. Importantly, it has provided a feasible protection to undertake infringing acts, the infringer has the right to no- pattern for acts of network music piracy. tify the network service provider to take necessary measures such as deleting, blocking and disconnecting links, etc. There- 5. Shanghai Pafuluo Stationery Co., Ltd. v. Shanghai fore, the defendant Taobao Company’s failure to take mea- Yixiang Stationery Co., Ltd., etc. sures when it was capable of doing so supported the defendant (1) Basic introduction to the case: Du Guofa’s infringing acts and constituted contributory in- The plaintiff, Shanghai Pafuluo Stationery Co., Ltd., has fringement, and it shall bear responsibility for compensation. ownership rights to the copyright of its website. In 2013, the The defendantT aobao Company disagreed and appealed. The plaintiff found that the website operated by the defendants Shanghai First Intermediate People’s Court rejected the ap- Shanghai Yixiang Stationery Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Ou’e peal and sustained the original judgment. Stationery Co., Ltd., plagiarized and counterfeited the official (2) Significance: website of the plaintiff, including plagiarism of the design style, Internet trading platforms previously were not responsible color, layout, etc., infringing upon the plaintiff’s copyright. The for acts of IPR infringement, but they are now responsible plaintiff requested the court to rule the defendants stop their parties. If a trademark proprietor has issued effective notice infringing acts, eliminate the effects, and compensate the plain- to the internet platform, while the latter only took measures tiff for its losses and pay reasonable expenses of the suit. such as warning and freezing the internet user’s advertisement Shanghai Minhang District People’s Court held in the rather than deletion of the infringing webpage, then the de- first instance that the defendants infringed upon the plain- liberately negligent acts of the internet platform require that it tiff’s website copyright, ordered the two defendants to stop bear liability for infringement together with the internet user.

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7. Anhui Huayuan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. v. State internet platform liabilities, cognizance of the related market Administration for Industry and Commerce, Trademark of internet monopoly, cognizance of copyrights on website Office, etc. content arrangements, etc. The above reforms have shown a Significance: significant leap in the progress of Intellectual Property protec- This case was the first case in the whole country that was tion in China. On November 12nd 2015, the State Council directly tried by the entire judicial committee of the court, issued a special opinion on protecting Intellectual Property and tried publicly. The trial committee members consisting in internet infringement, which has further manifested the of seven judges including its president Su Chi, vice presidents determination to protect Intellectual Property, so as to help Song Yushui and Chen Jinchuan, a judge’s assistant, and two create a legal and orderly environment for introducing for- clerks. The reason the entire trial committee of the Beijing IP eign investment and enhancing the development of Chinese Court handled this is based on its internal regulations. The companies. Beijing Intellectual Property Court adopted a reform of the Judicial Committee System as required by the Central and Superior Court with regard to judicial reform and clarified that the Judicial Committee shall mainly handle the following two kinds of cases: firstly, serious and complicated cases that are involved with national foreign affairs, safety, and social sta- bility; secondly, the application of hard, grave, and complicat- ed cases. The Judicial Committee should only decide certain legal issues in these cases, while other issues of fact and law remain to be decided by the collegial panel. The issue here is the authority of the court to declare the legality of a government agency’s regulation. Pursuant to the Supreme People’s Court Explanation of Several Problems of the Administrative Procedure Law, Article 21, the court now has this authority. This was the first case to so hold. Conclusion:

2014 and 2015 are two years in which judicial reform of Intellectual Property has made great progress, with regard to the following three matters: the first and most striking, is the reform of judicial system and the establishment in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou of Intellectual Property Courts, which sets a precedent for Chinese specialized courts. At the same time, new reforms have been undertaken within the Intellectual Property Courts, such as direct trial by the judi- cial committee in very significant cases for parts of said cas- es, selection of judges by committee in Guangzhou, having all judges in the Court as trial judges of equal stature, etc. Secondly, the enactment and implementation of a series of new regulations and laws, including the “Measures for Pat- ent Administrative Law Enforcement (2015 Amendment)”, “Recognition and Protection Measures on the Well-known Trademarks”, etc. A number of the Supreme People’s Court judicial interpretations have also filled legislation gaps regard- ing law enforcement, including the regulations on processing methods of infringing products by the administrative law en- forcement officials, and detailed procedures of recognition of well-know trademarks. Thirdly, the influence on the applica- tion of regulations through cases, for example, cognizance of

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1.8 Suggestions

Continue with Reform – Urgently economy, should first be the keystone of reforms. Currently, local government units and SOEs are the main beneficiaries (This suggestion section “Continue with Reform” is incorporated of China’s investment and industry-driven growth model, from our 2015 White Paper.) and Mr. Tao says, they pose “the main barriers to reform.” China’s reform, said Mr. Tao, should start by breaking up It is now obvious to any China-watcher that the coun- the local governments’ monopoly of the land market and try under President Xi Jinping’s leadership is continuing its allowing farmers to develop land on their own. That would ambitious reform program. The question most pundits are take local governments out of the real estate game and reduce pondering is, are these reforms going to be sufficient at this their incentive to support the status quo. He also proposed time in order for President Xi’s administration to achieve its that private players should be allowed a stake in monopoly stated goals by 2020, or, in view of the sharp slowing down of industries such as telecoms and utilities to encourage China’s economic engine, will it be a case of too little, too late? competition. But the crucial point Mr. Tao makes is “it’s As early as February 2012, the Wall Street Journal had the monopoly power of local governments and SOEs that previewed “China 2030”, a report co-authored by the World gives them an effective veto on crucial economic reforms. Bank and the Development Research Center (DRC)—a Breaking the monopolies breaks the power of the anti-reform Chinese government think tank that reports to the State coalition.” This, according to Mr.T ao, would pave the way Council and which counts among its members, Liu He, to other necessary reforms like market-based interest rates, a a senior adviser to the Politburo Standing Committee, and floating yuan, higher dividend payments by SOEs, and more.2 said that the report calls urgently for the implementation of Yes, there are incredible, painful challenges ahead in the “deep reforms, including scaling back its vast state-owned ongoing road to reform for China’s leadership but we as the enterprises and making them operate more like commercial writers of this paper are confident and believe, much like firms.” The report also “recommends that state-owned firms Daniel Rosen, author of the 2014 Asia Society report pro- be overseen by asset-management firms” and “urges China to duced in collaboration with the Rhodium Group, that China overhaul local government finances and promote competition knows these reforms are for the benefit of its own national and entrepreneurship.” The report also recommends a sharp interest and, therefore, must be achieved. Since it laid out its increase in the dividends that state companies pay to the reform agenda in the Decisions at the 2013 Third Plenum of government, boosting government revenue and helping to the Chinese Communist Party, we believe, along with Daniel pay for new social programs. The report urges that Chinese Rosen, that China’s leadership is making “real headway” in social expenditures be funded more by dividends from state- its bold program to overhaul and liberalize its economy and owned firms and by property, corporate and other taxes. that, if President Xi’s administration succeeds in carrying out The report was quite adamant about pressing its case for the its tasks, China will be on track in maintaining “a respectable urgency of reforms to be implemented, stating unequivocally 6% growth rate” by 2020.3 that if reforms are not carried out – by 2030, China faces “an In coming up with a 6% forecast - if all reforms are fully economic crisis,” the Wall Street Journal said. In a statement implemented — Mr. Rosen’s report focuses on nine “clusters” to announce the report’s release, World Bank President of economic and political reform aimed broadly at reducing Robert Zoellick said, “The report lays out recommendations centralized control over the Chinese economy and opening it for a development growth path for the medium term, helping up to more market influence. In all, Mr. Rosen’s analysis finds China make the transition to become a high-income society.”1 that “quiet progress is being made in some politically sensitive In a subsequent interview with the Wall Street Journal areas of reform.” Much like Mr. Tao before him, Mr. Rosen following the release of “China 2030”, Tao Ran, a professor said the starting point for the reform agenda is “a more funda- with the Renmin University School of Economics, that the mental overhaul of the fiscal relationship between the central report’s proposals are “well-intentioned” but are “doomed to government and the provinces.” The current arrangement has fail”, because “they don’t strike at the underlying reason” why allowed “an imbalanced division of power and responsibility China’s reforms will stall: “opposition from local governments between central and local authorities [which] has given rise to and SOEs.” Mr. Tao says that breaking up the monopoly pressing misallocations of resources and provincial resistance control by local governments and SOEs of key sectors of the to central reforms,” Mr. Rosen wrote.3

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1.8 建议

继续改革，刻不容缓 力，正因为如此，地方政府和国有企业才能够有效地否 决重大的经济改革。打破垄断也就是打破了反改革联盟 以下章节摘自《2015中国营商环境白皮书》 的力量。”根据陶然教授的说法，这将为利率市场化、 人民币汇率浮动、国有企业提高分红等其他必要改革以 2 任何一个中国问题专家都看得出，在习近平主席的 及世界银行报告建议的其他改革铺平道路。 领导下，中国正雄心勃勃地继续推进改革。以习近平为核 心的中国领导层已经设定了2020年国家发展目标，现在大 是的，在改革的道路上，中国的领导层会遇到让 多数专家思考的问题是：目前所进行的改革是否足以帮助 人难以想象的挑战，改革将会是一个痛苦的过程。2014 达成目标呢？或者说，鉴于目前中国经济增长动力急剧下 年，美国亚洲协会政策研究所研究员荣大聂（Daniel 滑，目前的改革力度是否太小，甚至已经太迟了？ Rosen）与荣鼎咨询集团合作撰写了一份关于中国经济 改革的报告。他在在报告中表示，他对中国的改革有信 早在2012年2月，《华尔街日报》曾经刊文提前披 心。作为本白皮书的撰稿者，我们也相信，中国知道改 露了即将发布的《2030年的中国》报告。该报告由世界 革是为了中国自身的国家利益，所以一定要进行改革。 银行和中国国务院发展研究中心（DRC）联合撰稿。中 在2013的三中全会上，中国共产党通过《决定》制定了 国国务院发展研究中心是直属于国务院的政府智库，其 宏伟的改革蓝图，就像荣大聂一样，我们也相信，中国 成员之一刘鹤也是中共中央政治局常务委员会的高级顾 的领导层在实行大胆的经济改革、放开市场的道路上已 问。《华尔街日报》在报道中称，该报告敦促中国马上 经取得了“真正进展”。如果习近平主席的领导班子能 进行“深层次改革，缩减庞大的国企规模，使之在运营 够顺利完成改革任务，2020年中国将能够维持6%的可观 3 模式上更接近商业公司”。报告也“建议中国的国有企 经济增长率。 业应由资产管理机构来监管，敦促中国政府大力整顿地 方政府的财政状况，推动竞争和创业”。报告还建议 按照荣大聂的预计，如果各项改革能顺利全面实 大幅提高国企支付的股息，这样不但能提振财政预算收 施，中国将能保持6%的经济增长率。荣大聂的报告重点 入，还能提高对新的社会性项目的支付。报告敦促中国 分析了九大类经济政治改革议题，这些改革的目的，主 社会公共支出资金更多地来自国有企业上缴的红利以及 要是减少中央对经济的控制，引入更多市场的力量。 不动产税、企业税和其他税收。《华尔街日报》的报道 总而言之，荣大聂的分析发现，“在一些政治敏感的领 还表示，该报告认为改革势在必行，刻不容缓，并且明 域，改革正在悄悄取得进展”。就像陶然教授一样，荣 确指出，如果不马上进行改革，到了2030年，中国将会 大聂也认为，改革计划应该从“彻底改变中央政府和地 方政府之间的财政关系”开始。他写到，在目前的中央 面临“经济危机”。世界银行行长佐立克(Robert Zoel- 和地方的财政关系下，“中央政府和地方政府权力分配 lick)在宣布发布该报告的一份声明中说，“该报告就中 国中期发展增长道路提出了若干建议，目的是帮助中国 不平衡，导致资源配置不当，中央政府的改革遇到地方 3 实现向高收入社会的过渡。”1 阻力。”

在《2030年的中国》发布之后，《华尔街日报》 荣大聂先生的说法更加积极，他表示，他的报告在 采访了中国人民大学经济学院教授陶然。陶然教授说， 大多数法制领域发现一个规律，“2014年触底的证据非常 报告提出的建议是“出于好心”，但是“注定会失败” 明显”。在接受《华尔街日报》采访时，荣大聂说，他认 ，因为这些建议并没有触及中国改革陷入停滞的根本原 为习近平主席主持的反腐败运动，意味着“中国政府有坚 因：地方政府和国有企业的反对。陶然教授认为，打 定的决心，摆脱效率低下的特权官僚主义”。他说，反腐 破地方政府和国有企业对关键经济部门的垄断应当是改 败运动和其他政治改革“为更加全面的改革创造了环境， 革的基石。目前，地方政府和国有企业是中国当前以投 有利于中国经济从目前过度依赖投资、不可持续的增长模 3 资和工业为推动的经济增长模式的最大受益者，是“改 式，向更加以消费者为导向的增长模式转变。” 革的主要障碍”。陶然教授说，中国的改革应该从打破 地方政府对土地市场的垄断、允许农民自行开发土地着 在2013年的三中全会和2014年四中全会上，中国共 手。这会使地方政府脱离房地产业，减弱它们维持现状 产党新一届领导班子分别作出了进行经济及法制改革的 的动机。陶然教授也提出，应该允许民营企业进入电信 承诺。正如荣大聂所说，反腐败运动和其他政治改革是 和公用事业等垄断行业，鼓励竞争。但是，陶然教授 经济改革的前提，为全面深化改革和经济转型创造必要 认为，“问题的症结在于地方政府和国有企业的垄断权 的环境。目前，中国政府领导班子面临的关键问题是：

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On a more positive note, Mr. Rosen has added that Suggestions (in 2016) his report has identified a pattern in most regulatory areas that “evidence of follow-through was apparent in 2014.” In Like fictional British spy James Bond’s martini, reforms in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Mr. Rosen said China need to be shaken, not stirred. he viewed the anti-corruption campaign orchestrated by This will require an effort by China’s leaders on three sig- President Xi Jinping as “a sign of a serious commitment to nificant fronts, according to The Economist: first, speeding up shake up an inefficient and privileged bureaucracy”. That financial liberalization so that credit goes to the most dynamic and the other political reforms “set the stage for a more firms, not the best-connected; second, establishing and en- comprehensive overhaul that’s needed to shift the economy forcing the rule of law so that all firms, state-owed or private, from its current, unsustainable dependence on investment-led domestic or foreign, are treated equally; and third, trimming growth to a more consumer-focused model,” Mr. Rosen said.3 bloated SOEs and encouraging competition and innovation So, the Chinese Communist Party leadership has commit- across the economy by encouraging the private sector. ted to economic reform at the Third Plenum in 2013 and to An outline of a market-based financial sector is now legal reform at the Fourth Plenum in 2014. As Mr. Rosen emerging and much more needs to be done. Last year, China’s stipulates, the anti-corruption campaign and other political leadership agreed on the importance of “comprehensively reforms form the backdrop for the framework of overall re- advancing the rule of law” but progress on the rule of law has form and transformation of the economy. A critical question been sluggish. 5 Caixin ran a compelling editorial back in June confronts the leadership at this stage: Can President Xi Jin- 2015, arguing that, despite official promises, the private sector ping and his administration continue to press forward in ag- still suffers legal discrimination in market access, finance and gressively tackling corruption while also fiercely undertaking investment. China needs “a transformation” to become more economic reforms? innovative and efficient, it said, which “requires a break from Our conclusion is, they must – they have to – and they the old practices of a planned economy”. 6 should. As proven by successes such as Alibaba, Xiaomi, Tencent, President Xi’s anti-corruption drive has removed high- Baidu, Lenovo and many more to mention, China can be a ranking figures such as Bo Xilai and ZhouY ongkang, the powerhouse of innovation. If the country is to sustain strong former security chief, along with Liu Tienan, deputy head growth in the future, it must rely on fresh waves of entrepre- of the National Development and Reform Commission, neurialism and innovation. For this to happen, though, the the principal agency for setting and carrying out economic government must continue ahead with difficult reforms to policy. According to the Wall Street Journal, Mr. Liu had curb the power of the state and improve the rule of law. It must been regarded by some foreign observers as “one of the people expose state firms to the discipline of genuine market competi- standing in the way of much-needed economic reforms.” The tion and the scrutiny of independent antitrust regulators. Chinese Communist Party’s latest move is to place permanent In a report on China’s economy published in August 2015, anti-graft investigators and embed them inside key national the IMF noted that the country is making progress on struc- government bodies like the cabinet and legislature. Resident tural reforms while it transitions to a “new normal” of” slower supervisors will, for the first time, be stationed within yet safer and more sustainable growth” but warned that a huge the management office of the State Council cabinet in the amount of work in China’s unfinished reform remains to be National People’s Congress, in key central party offices, and done. 7 “altogether in all 140 party and government offices”, according We encourage China’s leaders to “keep on keeping on” – to Xinhua. 4 until they’ve achieved their goals. It remains to be seen whether these political changes will help clear the way for the extensive and ambitious economic reforms to which President Xi’s government has committed. Li Chengyan, head of the Research Center for Clean Governance at Peking University, sums it up best in the Wall Street Journal: “Comprehensively deepening reform cannot move forward without adequately cracking down on corruption….The two sides of the approach complement and reinforce each other and cannot be separated.”4

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习近平及其执政团队能够一边继续重拳打击腐败，一边 底转变”，才能提高创新水平和效率，要做到这一点， 大张旗鼓地进行经济改革吗？ 则“需要摆脱计划经济时代的种种陋习”6。

我们的结论是：他们必须做到，他们不得不做到， 阿里巴巴、小米、腾讯、百度、联想以及许多中国 而且也应该做到。 企业的成功，已经证明中国也可以成为创新强国。中国 未来要保持强劲的增长，必须依赖新一轮创业和创新浪 习近平主席的反腐行动已经让多位政府高官落马， 潮。要实现这个目标，中国政府必须继续进行艰难的改 例如薄熙来、前公安部部长周永康以及国家发展与改革 革进程，控制国家的权力，提高法治水平。中国必须让 委员会（发改委）副主任刘铁男，而发改委正是制定和 国有企业接受真正的市场竞争约束，以及独立的反垄断 执行经济政策的主要机构。根据《华尔街日报》报道， 机构审查。 有些外国观察人士认为，“中国迫切需要进行经济改 革，但是受到不少人的阻挠，而刘铁男是其中之一”。 2015年8月，国际货币基金组织在对中国经济的年 中国共产党最近出台了最新的反腐措施，由中国共产党 度评估报告中指出，中国经济的结构性改革已经取得 中央纪律委员会（中纪委）在具有重要影响的中央和国 进展。中国正在进入“新常态”，其特点是增长速度放 家机关设立中央纪委派驻检查员，包括国务院办公厅和 慢，但是更加安全，更加可持续。不过该报告也提出警 全国人大机关。这是中纪委第一次向国务院、全国人大 告：改革尚未完成，中国仍需努力。 和其他中央一级党和国家机关派驻纪律检查员。据新华 社报道，“派驻机构将会全部覆盖140多家中央和国家 我们希望中国的领导层“在坚持改革的道路上坚持 机关”。4 走下去”，直到达成目标。

习近平主席及其执政团队承诺要进行广泛深入、雄 心勃勃的经济改革，上述政治改革是否能为经济改革扫 清障碍，我们将拭目以待。

在《华尔街日报》的报道中，北京大学廉政建设研 究中心主任李成言做了最好的总结：“反腐不到位，全 面深化改革就推不动——­ 新一届中央政府的两个拳头是 相辅相成，不可分割的。”

建议（2016）

就像虚构的英国间谍詹姆斯•邦德的马丁尼鸡尾酒 一样，中国的改革也需要摇匀，不要搅拌。

据《经济学人》报道，要做到这一点，需要中国的 领导层在三个重要方面进行努力：第一、加快开放金融市 场，让资本流向最有活力的企业，而不是关系最强大的企 业；第二、建设和推行依法治国，让所有企业，不管国有 企业还是私营企业，不管中国企业还是外国企业，都得到 平等对待；第三、调整机构臃肿的国有企业，激发私营企 业活力，鼓励所有企业参与竞争和创新。

一个以市场为基础的金融业框架已经初具雏形， 接下来中国还需要完成大量工作。去年，中国的领导层 一致认同“全面推进依法治国”的重要性，但是中国的 法治建设至今并没有取得多少进展5。2015年6月，财新 网刊登了一篇引人瞩目的社论文章。该文章认为，虽然 政府已作出承诺，但是私营行业仍然在市场准入、融资 和投资方面受到法律歧视。文章说，中国经济需要“彻

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Works Cited

1 Bob Davis. “New Push for Reform in China.” Wall Street Journal. February 2012. http://www.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001 424052970204778604577238901231511224?mg=reno64- wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2F SB10001424052970204778604577238901231511224.html

2 Liyan Qi and Tom Orlik. Wall Street Journal. March 27, 2012. http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2012/03/27/economist- world-bank-suggestions-for-china-reform-garbage/

3 Michael Casey. “China Economy on Track for Sweeping Reform.” Wall Street Journal. October 23, 2014. http://blogs.wsj.com/ chinarealtime/2014/10/23/china-economy-on-track-for- sweeping-reform-asia-society-report-finds/

4 Stanley Lubman. “China’s Corruption Fight Inseparable from Reform.” Wall Street Journal. December 17, 2014. http://blogs. wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/12/17/chinas-corruption-fight- inseparable-from-economic-reform/

5 Zachary Keck. “4th Plenum: Rule of Law with Chinese Characteristics.” The Diplomat. October 20, 2014. http://thediplomat. com/2014/10/4th-plenum-rule-of-law-with-chinese-characteristics/

6 “Let The Sun Shine on Private Enterprise.”Caixin . June 10, 2015. http://english.caixin.com/2015-06-10/100817798.html

7 “China’s Transition to Slower but Better Growth.” IMF Survey. August 14, 2015. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/ so/2015/CAR081415B.htm

8 Vijay Vaitheeswaran. “Back to Business.” The Economist. September 12, 2015. http://www.economist.com/printedition/specialre- ports?year[value][year]=2015&category=76984

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Part II Industry Overviews

2.1 Agriculture 2.2 Chemicals, Bio-chemicals and Energy 2.3 Machinery and Electrical Equipment 2.4 Transportation and Logistics 2.5 Products Classified by Materials 2.6 Construction 2.7 Manufactured Articles 2.8 Hospitality 2.9 Services

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第二部分

行业概况

2.1 农业与林业 2.2 化学、生物化学与能源业 2.3 机械与电气设备业 2.4 运输与物流业 2.5 按材料分类产品 2.6 建筑业 2.7 制造业 2.8 酒店业 2.9 服务业

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2.1 Agriculture

hina’s agricultural industry has a long to farmers and agricultural production,” detailing the adjust- Cand varied history. According to the Ministry of Land ments made to honor WTO commitments.5 The Ministry of and Resources of the People’s Republic of China, 14 percent Finance later reported that in 2011, China’s grain growers were of the country’s total 9.6 million square kilometers of land area to receive a total of 140.6 billion yuan in subsidies for purchas- is arable, which it further reports is less than half of the world ing agricultural supplies and machinery as well as for growing a average in terms of area per capita.1 more diverse selection of crops.6 Despite the relatively small area, it generally supports the The fruits of reformers’ labors are perhaps best summa- roughly 20 percent of the world’s population who are Chinese rized in the following passage from the same report: “China’s citizens. This fact, in addition to historical precedents, contin- everyday per capita calorie intake surpassed 2,750 kilocalories, ues to highlight the need for efficient use of the limited space protein more than 70 grams, fat 52 grams, which by and large and of the constant interplay between ongoing industrializa- reached the world average level. In general, China’s food secu- tion and the necessity of a strong fundamental primary indus- rity has been effectively guaranteed, and its urban and rural try. It is estimated that the Chinese government has, in the past dwellers are living a healthier and more nourishing life.”5 several decades, spent “hundreds of billions of dollars to repair A more recent report by the National Bureau of Statistics and revitalize” agriculture.2 indicated that between 2002 and 2011, “average rural in- Since China joined the WTO in 2001, the Chinese govern- comes surged by 1.8 times compared with 2002 to 6,977 yuan ment has steadily supported agricultural expenditure and devel- ($1,090) in 2011.” Simultaneously, the report announced on- opment. In 2006, a study by Xing Wen-Yan from the Liaoning going increases in several areas: “grain production reached 571 Academy of Social Sciences, stated that “in 2006, agricultural million tons, an increase of 114 million tons from 2002, an tax and tax on agricultural products were abolished through- annual increase rate of 2.5 percent over the last decade”, “rice out China, ending a 2,600-year history of paying taxes on the yields in 2011 stood at 201 million tons, a 15.2 percent increase part of farmers. “ From 2007 to 2010, financial expenditure on from 2002”, “wheat production reached 117 billion tons, up 30 agriculture rose with 100 billion yuan every year. In 2009, the percent” and “corn obtained a yield of 192 million tons, a 58.9 central government spent 725.49 billion yuan on agriculture, percent increase from a decade ago.”7 countryside and farmers, reaching a record high, an increase of Counteracting gains in self-sufficiency, in 2013 a combina- nearly 5 times of 123.154 billion yuan in 2000.”42 tion of “frost in the growing period and rain during the harvest” These efforts have paid off handsomely; the China Statistical led to China challenging Egypt’s position as the largest import- Yearbook 2009 reported that gross output of the agricultural er of wheat in the world. Hard hit was the center of Henan sector had grown from 139 billion yuan in 1978 (accounting province, “where some growers [had] seen their production for 38.3 percent of total GDP that year) to 5.8 trillion yuan in slashed by 40 percent from year ago.”8 2008 (19.2 percent of total GDP), calculated “at current pric- “China [had] also been snapping up corn shipments in re- es.” 3 cent weeks with imports forecast to climb to an all-time high The PRC government’s expenditures on agriculture have, of 7 million metric tons” over the course of 2013, according to according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s statistics, the USDA.8 risen from 15 billion yuan in 1978 to 317 billion yuan as of Despite the growing robustness of domestic agriculture, how- 2006 (the last year for which these statistics are published). Pro- ever, several issues remain major concerns moving forward. ductivity in these terms of output per unit of expenditure has For one, a study conducted this year by the Chinese Acad- improved greatly, roughly doubling between 1978 and 2006.4 emy of Sciences found that “the agricultural sector is a drag on Despite these improvements, the PRC’s Ministry of Agricul- the development of China’s modernization, with its technolog- ture observed in 2004 that the relatively gradual growth of the ical level by the end of 2008 more than a century behind that sector is indicative of “the low comparative returns on agricul- of the United States.” In terms of productivity, the Academy ture,” therefore validating the various subsidies (such as transfer found that Chinese agricultural efforts were only one percent as payment) that are “important [measures] of most countries to productive as those in Western nations; furthermore, the report preserve food security.”5 concluded that bringing productivity up to international norms The report also noted that “agricultural subsidies have been will necessitate the creation of “jobs for 280 million farmers, gradually transferred from the distribution process to the pro- cutting the rural workforce population from 310 million to 31 duction process and direct subsidies have started to be offered million over the next 40 years” as part of modernization efforts.9

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2.1 农业

中国的农业有着悠久丰富的历史。根据中华人民共 卡，蛋白质超过70克，脂肪52克，已经基本达到世界平 和国国土资源部数据显示，中国国土面积有960万平方 均水平。总体上讲，中国的粮食安全已经得到有效的保 公里，其中14％为可耕地，人均耕地面积不足国际标准 障，而城乡居民也过上越来越健康和富足的生活。”5 的一半。1 中国国家统计局最近发布的调查报告显示，“2011年 尽管人均可耕地面积相对较小，这片土地却养育了 农村居民人均纯收入6977元人民币（1090美元），比2002 占世界总人口20％的中国人民。纵观历史，上述事实不 年增长1.8倍。”同时，该报告称农业生产各方面实现持 仅证明了继续有效利用这片土地的必要性，亦凸显了在 续增产：“全国粮食总产量达5.71亿吨，比2002年增长了 持续发展工业化的道路上，拥有基础产业强有力支持的 1.14亿吨，在过去十年里年均增长率为2.5%”，“2011年 重要性。据推算，在过去的几十年里，中国政府已经斥 水稻总产量达2.01亿吨，比2002年增长了15.2%”，“小 资“数千亿美元用于恢复及振兴”农业2。 麦总产量达1170亿吨，增长了30%”，以及“玉米产量达 1.92亿吨，比十年前增长了58.9%。”7 自从2001年加入世界贸易组织以来，中国政府不 断提高财政农业支出，鼓励发展农业。2006年，辽宁社 而目前的情况与过去自给自足的情况正好相 会科学院研究员邢文妍发表论文指出：“2006年，中国 反。2013年，由于“种植期霜冻严重，加上收获期降水 在全国范围内取消了农业税和农业特产税，终结了延续 较多”，小麦种植大幅减产，导致中国超越埃及，成为 2600多年农民种田交税的历史。从2007年到2010年，财 世界上最大的小麦进口国。在天气灾害影响最严重的河 政对农业的支出每年都以千亿元的规模上升，2009年 南省，“有些小麦种植户的粮食产量比上年下降40%。”8 中央财政用于农业、农村和农民的支出达到7254.90亿 元，创下了历史新高，比2000年的1231.54亿元增长了 根据美国农业部的数据，“中国正在过去几个星期 近五倍。” 42 抢购玉米，预计2013年全年玉米进口总量将达到700公 吨，创历史新高。”8 这些努力取得了非常显著的成效。据《中国2009 年统计年鉴》记录，按照“现行价格”，1978年中国农 尽管中国农业正在持续繁荣发展，但是未来仍然面 业总产量为1390亿元人民币（占当年国内生产总值的 临几个严峻的挑战。 38.3%），到了2008年，这个数字已经增长到5.8万亿元 人民币（占当年国内生产总值的19.2%）。3 首先，今年中国科学院的一份报告指出，“农业是 中国现代化发展的一块短板。截至2008年底，中国农业 与此同时，根据美国农业部的数据，中华人民共和 技术水平比美国落后超过100年”。在农业生产率方面， 国政府1978年在农业上的财政支出是150亿元人民币， 中科院认为中国仅为西方国家的百分之一。该报告认 到了2006年（该报告最新数据为2006年信息）已经增长 为，中国要实现现代化，必须把农业劳动生产率提高到 到3170亿元人民币。每单位财政支出产出已经得到大幅 国际水平，因此必须创造就业机会，“在未来40年把2.8 度提高，从1978年到2006年间几乎翻了一番4。尽管取 亿农民转移出去，农业劳动力总数将从3.1亿下降到0.31 得了这些进步，在2004年，中国国家农业部有关报告指 亿9。”换言之，尽管近年来全国粮食总量相对较好，但 出，相对于第二及第三产业来说，农业的增长水平仍 从长远来看，中国农业发展前景远远不容乐观。 然“相对较低”，由此证明各种补贴（如专项拨款）都 是“许多国家维护粮食安全的重要（措施）”。5 另外一个挑战是现有农业政策执行问题。2012年 8月，中国政府宣布正式启动一系列的“农业法执法检 报告还指出，“农业补贴已逐渐从流通过程向生产 查”。根据全国人大常委会委员长吴邦国的批示，这次 过程转移，直接补贴也开始对农民和农业生产发放”， 农业法执法检查，目的在于“抓住影响农村改革发展的 这正是中国为履行对世贸组织承诺而作出调整的具体体 突出矛盾，提出务实可行的建议，推进农业现代化。”10 现。5 随后，财政部公布统计数据，2011年中央财政计 划补贴农户用于农业用品、农业机械以及农作物多样化 据当时《中国日报》报道，新一轮的执法检查是自 等补贴资金总额达1406亿元。6 2003年以来第八次检查，主要围绕“发展现代农业、粮 食安全和耕地保护”等问题展开。9这次执法检查由中 出自同一报告的部分内容或许能最好地总结出改 央政府特派官员亲自执行，有全国人大常委会委员评论 革的劳动成果：“中国人日均卡路里摄入量超过2750千 称“要加强农业法执法，为农业发展和提高农村地区生

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In other words, the situation is far from ideal in absolute terms China, the Wall Street Journal quoted Beijing-based attorney regardless of impressive relative gains made in recent years. Lester Ross as suggesting that “one of the biggest issues is the Another issue seems to be enforcement of policies currently drive to make a buck at any cost [… that] some companies see on the books. In August of 2012, a series of “inspections” was that by using additives, they can cut overhead costs or boost announced which intended, according to NPC Standing Com- profit margins, and they merely aren’t thinking about the affects mittee Chair Wu Bangguo, to “find out the prominent issues the additives will have on consumers.” Mr. Ross furthermore at- that hamper China’s rural reform and development and provid- tributes “too many bureaucracies handling food safety” as an ing suggestions to promote the agricultural modernization.”10 additional source of problems.13 At the time, China Daily reported that the new round of The same report notes that “sanitation and contamination inspections—focusing on “the development of modern agricul- issues permeated the food manufacturing and processing in the ture, grain safety and the protection of farmland”—were the US in the late-19th century”, observing that it was not until the eighth-such carried out since 2003.10 The fact that the inspec- publication of The Jungle, “a book that unveiled the horrific tions were carried out by officials dispatched from Beijing, com- standards of meat-packing plants of Chicago, that the US began bined with follow-up comments from another NPC Standing to wake up to its food safety problems.”13 Committee about the “[promotion of ] better implementation Regardless of cause and precedent, the at least one effect of of the law as it provides firm legal safeguard for the develop- ongoing safety issues is thoroughly predictable: ment of agriculture and the improvement of living standards in rural areas”10, suggests that the inspections also aimed to curtail “It’s clear that the credibility of the system will suffer,” local-level corruption in rural areas. said Peter K. Ben Embarek, the World Health Organi- Inspections aside, the same NPC Standing Committee zation’s food safety official. “The (Chinese) consumer member also pointed out that “China [is] facing a series of chal- will continue to lose confidence in Chinese products lenges in rural development, including weak grain productivity, and consumers abroad will equally lose confidence in lack of a long-term system for raising the farmers’ income, and Chinese products.”14 shortage of farmland and water resources”9—somewhat tem- pering the optimistic National Bureau of Statistics figures listed A final challenge likely to play a greater role in the future above and reported by China Daily the very same day. of the sector is consumer acceptance of genetically-modified Another source of ongoing concern is China’s now-notori- foodstuffs. ous problems with food safety: In the past 30 years, China’s urban population has jumped to about 700 million from under 200 million, driving up demand Since 2008, when six children died and 300,000 were for meat and staples such as rice that scientists say only GMO sickened by melamine-tainted baby formula, the Chi- can satisfy.15 nese government has enacted ever-more-strict policies “Winning acceptance for the more widespread use of to ensure food safety, including a directive last month GMO,” observes Reuters, “may be a hard sell in a country from the Supreme Court calling for the death penalty frequently in the grip of food scares.”15 Nevertheless, the State in cases where people die as a result of tainted foods. media are attempting exactly that. On a single day in November 2013, “Communist Party mouthpiece the People’s Daily It hasn’t helped. If anything, China’s food scandals are rejected rumors that eating GMO food could alter human becoming increasingly frequent and bizarre.11 DNA, and news agency Xinhua ran an investigation last week debunking tales that GMO corn consumption had reduced The source of the above quote focused on tainted pork sperm counts.”15 served at a wedding in Hunan province; another incident— At least some stakeholders remain unimpressed by the pub- only two months later—involved 11 deaths in Xinjiang from lic relations effort: “Scientists have been at pains to show that poisonous vinegar. According to that report, “…those are just GMO is already part of the food chain: China is the world’s the latest. They follow the meat that glowed in the dark; the top importer of GMO soybeans, used as feed, and also imports tainted buns; the exploding watermelons; the 40 tons of bean GMO corn from the United States and elsewhere,” all factors sprouts containing antibiotics and carcinogens; the rice con- which may render the public debate moot.15 taminated with heavy metals; the mushrooms imbued with Foreign investment in agriculture has historically (and un- bleach; and the pork so dosed with banned stimulants that ath- surprisingly) grown alongside reform in the sector. The Min- letes attending an international meet in Shanghai had to be told istry of Commerce (MOFCOM) reported that 2006 saw 458 which restaurants were safe to eat at.”12 foreign-invested projects (an increase of 5.8 percent over 2005) In examining the cause of pervasive food safety issues in with a total utilized investment of $240 million (an increase of

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活水平提供法律保障”，9由此可见，此次执法检查同时 国家的前车之鉴，食品安全丑闻接二连三出现，我们至 致力于打击农村地区腐败现象。 少可以肯定一个结果：

除执法检查外，该全国人大常委会委员还指出，“ “很明显中国食品系统的信誉会受到影响，” 中国农业发展还面临着一系列挑战，包括粮食综合生能 世界卫生组织的食品安全官员彼得•本•恩巴赫 力不强，农民增收的长效机制尚未形成，耕地和水资源 （Peter Ben Embarek）说：“中国消费者对中国 紧缺等9”——在国家统计局公布农业调查报告的同一 产品的信心会持续下跌，外国消费者也同样会 天，《中国日报》报道了上述评论，似乎令统计数据显 对中国产品失去信心。” 14 示的乐观情绪稍微得到缓和。

最后，消费者对转基因食品的态度，对农业未来发 中国要应对的另一个挑战，是目前众所周知的食品 展的影响可能会越来越大。 安全问题:

在过去三十年里，中国的城镇人口数量从不足2亿 2008年，含有工业化学物质三聚氰胺的牛奶导 快速增长至7亿，推高了国内对肉类和大米等主食的需 致六名儿童因死亡，超过30万儿童患病。自此 求。科学家说，只有借助转基因生物，才能够满足这种 之后，政府为了保障食品安全，制订了前所未 需求。15 有的严厉措施。上个月，最高人民法院颁布法 令，规定对违反食品安全条例生产及销售受污 路透社指出，“在一个经常陷入食品安全恐慌的 染食品而致人死亡的罪犯处以死刑。 国家，让公众接受更广泛地使用转基因食品并不是一 件容易的事情。15然而，中国国家媒体正在努力这样 但是食品安全问题并未得到解决。如果说有什 做。2013年11月的某一日，“中国共产党的喉舌《人民 么变化的话，那就是中国的食品安全丑闻越来 日报》发表文章，批驳了食用转基因食物可能改变人类 越多，也越来越离奇。11 基因的说法。在此前一个星期，新华社也刊登了一份调 查报告，揭穿了食用转基因玉米后精子数量减少的谣 以上文字引自媒体对一名湖南省男子办婚宴买到污 言。” 15 染猪肉的报道。两个月之后，媒体又曝光了另一起食品 安全丑闻：11名新疆农民因食用被污染醋中毒死亡。这 至少有一些利益相关者对政府的公共宣传不为所 些都是最近的消息，在此之前，媒体已经报道过会发光 动。“科学家们一直煞费苦心，试图证明转基因生物已 的猪肉、毒馒头、膨化剂西瓜、40吨含有抗生素和致癌 经是食物链的一部分：中国是全球最大的转基因大豆进 物质的毒豆芽、受重金属污染的毒大米、漂白剂蘑菇等 口国，转基因大豆已经广泛用于饲料生产。此外，中国 等。甚至有报道称，因猪肉含有太多违禁激素，到上海 还从美国和其他国家进口转基因玉米。”这些因素可能 参加国际田径赛事的运动员，只能在指定的餐厅就餐， 导致这场公众辩论没有任何实际意义。15 以确保食品安全。12 自从农业部门开始改革以来，外国对农业的投资 《华尔街日报》曾报道分析中国层出不穷的食品 一直（毫无意外地）持续增长。中华人民共和国商务 安全问题，并采访了常驻北京的美国律师列斯特•罗斯 部（商务部）的报告显示，2006年农业外商投资项目 （Lester Ross）。罗斯先生认为，“最大的问题之一，是 共458项（比2005年增长了5.8%），实际利用外资总额 为了赚钱不择手段的动机，[所以]有些企业觉得，使用 达到2.4亿美元（比2005年增长了18.9%）。16 添加剂可以削减经营成本或者提高利润率，他们几乎不 考虑这些添加剂会对消费者有何影响。”另外，罗斯先 尽管政府一直努力希望把外商投资引向中国中部及 生说，监管食品安全的政府机构过多是导致食品安全问 西部地区，气候宜人的东部地区在农业方面历来就是吸 题的另一原因。13 引大部分外资的地点（截止2005年，该地区吸引外资比 例占自“对外开放”以来外商投资总量近60％）。 这份报道同时指出，“19世纪末，美国的食品生 产和加工行业也普遍存在卫生和污染问题”，直到《屠 有意思的是，2006年458个外商投资项目中，仅有 场》（The Jungle）一书出版，揭露了美国芝加哥肉类包 12个项目利用外资超过2000万美元16，这就意味着，尽 装厂骇人听闻的卫生标准之后，美国才开始意识到食品 管20世纪50年代曾经历由集体组织农业生产经营的“人 安全问题。13 民公社”阶段，第二产业已经形成的规模经济仍未能在 农业中形成，历来由个人或家庭在小块土地上的耕作在 无论食品安全问题的原因是什么，无论是否有其他 过去（乃至目前）一直能基本实现自给自足。5

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18.9 percent).16 of Social Sciences is predicting that the import and export of Temperate eastern China has historically received the ma- China’s agricultural products will likely slow in the medium- to jority of foreign investment in agriculture (as of 2005, nearly long term.22 60 percent of the total since the “opening up”), although sus- Another recent development is the proliferation of agricul- tained efforts are being made to drive investment into central tural insurance. After a pilot program involving six provincial and western China. regions, it was reported that “agricultural insurance income Interestingly, in 2006 only 12 of the total 458 foreign-invest- reached 10.54 billion yuan by November [of 2008], soaring 112 ed projects involved investments of more than $20 million,16 percent compared with the same period [in 2007],” and that a suggesting that the dramatic economies of scale witnessed in total of 4.2 billion yuan in compensation had been paid out to secondary industry have yet to take hold in agriculture—which, more than 10 million households as a result.23 despite experimentation with communal farming in the 1950s, Additionally, a pilot pension program was launched in 10 has historically been driven by individuals or families working percent of the nation’s counties in 2009. By 2011, Southwest- small parcels of land who have in the past been (and currently ern University of Finance and Economics Professor Lin Yi told are) largely self-sufficient.5 China Daily that 200 million individuals were participating in In 2007 549 foreign investment projects were initiated in the program. It is expected to cover the entire nation by 2020.24 the sector, but in 2008 that number decreased to 470. Of those In addition to the subsidies and the new pension program, set up in 2008, the majority (332) were in eastern China, with improvements have been made to rural health insurance under 76 and 62 located in central and western China, respectively. the “New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme.” The program, These projects accounted for a 40 percent year-on-year increase which reportedly covered 93 percent of the Mainland’s farmers in utilized foreign capital (for a total of approximately $550 in 2010, under which “the government will raise its subsidy to million), however.17 200 yuan per person each year from 120 yuan in 2011 [while In 2009, 515 foreign investment projects had been realized the individual] pays 30 yuan.” The program will furthermore in agriculture, up from 2008’s figures; utilized foreign capital increase reimbursement rates for “basic and essential” drugs and similarly grew to reach $751 million (a 35 percent year-on-year services from 60 to 70 percent and raise the maximum reim- increase). Regional distribution of these projects was generally bursement amount from 30,000 to 50,000 yuan.25 similar to in years past, although the nation’s central region at- 2010 saw an additional insurance scheme initiated: a tracted a greater share than it had in 200818 (consistent with, or weather insurance pilot program in Fujian was announced after perhaps a result of, the Central Government’s efforts to drive a China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) reported a investments inland). detailed systemic inability to adequately compensate for losses According to a “Regular Press Conference of the Ministry of due to natural disasters: “Insurers cover about 30 percent of Commerce” held in 2010, the number of newly established for- losses from natural disasters in developed countries, but that eign enterprises in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry figure is below 5 percent in China—a country that is frequently and fishery industries was 929, up by 3.7 percent year-on-year, hit by a wide range of natural disasters.”26 and the actual utilization of foreign capital amounted to $1.91 A 2010 CIRC report indicated that agricultural insurance billion, up by 33.8 percent year-on-year. These new enterprises premiums over the course of 2009 totaled 13.39 billion yuan accounted for 3.4 percent of the national total of newly-estab- in 2009.27 lished foreign-invested enterprises and 1.8 percent of total paid- Despite its fast expansion following that original pilot in foreign capital, respectively.19 program, agricultural insurance is still somewhat under- FDI in the agricultural industries has historically focused on regulated and potentially problematic. According to an technical cooperation with local producers; the proportion of unnamed State Council official speaking toChina Daily, foreign investment with an export focus is quite small.19 issues include “a lack of continued policy supports and unclear The trend in agricultural FDI is perceived to be upward, responsibilities for relevant departments.” Accordingly, the however: overcapacity in the manufacturing sector will likely State Council’s Legislative Office issued a draft proposal for drive more FDI to the agricultural and service sectors, Asian agricultural insurance regulations in May of 2012. The draft Development Bank senior economist Zhuang Jian told China details how the government “will support agricultural insurance Daily in 2009.20 In 2011, China Daily specified that the resourc- with favorable financing and taxation policies and will specify es of foreign investment will be allocated to advanced agricul- the duties of relevant departments”, in addition to outlining ture.21 “the principles for insurance companies handling agricultural Finally, although the Ministry of Agriculture published sta- insurance and the rules for operations in accordance with risk tistics indicating a 13.2 percent year-on-year growth in agricul- analyses, business actions and business results”28. tural exports between 2002 and 2010, the Chinese Academy

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2007年，农业部门的外商投资项目达到549个，但 30元”。农村新型合作医疗制度将进一步提高“基本”药 是2008年该数字下降至470个。2008年启动的项目中， 物和服务的报销率，报销比例从60%提高到70%，最高报销 大部份（332个）位于华东地区，而中、西部地区的投 金额从30000元提高到50000元。25 资项目分别为76个及62个。尽管如此，这些投资项目在 2008年利用外资的增加中占到40％（投资总额约为5.5 2010年，福建省宣布启动一项气候保险试点项目。 亿美元）。17 在此之前，中国保险监督管理委员会发布了一份详细报 告，指出由于系统性缺陷，农民因自然灾害蒙受的损失 2009年，农业实现了515个国外投资项目，比2008 无法得到满意的赔偿。报告称，“在发达国家，由于自 年有所上升，实际利用外资也有所增长，达到7.51亿美 然灾害而造成的损失，投保人可以得到30%的赔偿，而 元（比上年同期增长35%）。总体而言，农业投资项目 在中国，这个数字低于5%——而中国恰恰是经常遭受各 的区域分配与以往一致，但是中部地区吸收的外商投资 种自然灾害国家。”26 比2008年有所增长18（与中央政府鼓励投资内地的政策 相一致，或者是这些政策的成果之一）。 中国保险监督管理委员会的一份2010年报告显示， 在2009年，中国全国农业保险费收入总额达到133.9亿 据2010年中国商务部例行新闻发布会公布信息显 元人民币27。 示，2010年全年外商投资农、林、牧、渔业新设立外商 投资企业929家，同比增长3.7%，实际利用外资总额达 随着农业保险试点项目的不断推进，农业保险很快 19.1亿美元，同比增长33.8%，占同期全国新设立外商 推广到全国。尽管如此，农业保险法律制度尚不完善， 投资企业总数和实际利用外资总额的比重分别为3.4%和 且存在一些比较突出的问题。一位不愿意透露姓名的国 1.8% 。19 务院官员接受《中国日报》采访，指出存在的问题包 括“农业保险缺乏稳定持续的政策支持，政府部门职责 一直以来，投入农业的外商直接投资基本集中于与本 分工不明”等。因此，2012年5月，国务院法制办公室 地生产商的技术合作，用于出口的外资比重则相当少。19 公布了一份《农业保险条例（征求意见稿）》。征求意 见稿规定国家将“对农业保险给予财税政策支持，明确 农业方面的外商直接投资趋势被认为是上升的。然 了政府相关部门的职责分工”，明确提出“保险公司经 而亚洲开发银行高级经济学家庄健2009年接受《中国日 营农业保险的原则，并根据农业保险的潜在风险、业务 报》采访提到，制造业的产能过剩可能会吸引更多的外国 操作和经营结果等方面的特殊性，规定了农业保险的经 直接投资外商直接投资引向投向农业和服务部门20。2011 营规则”。28 年，《中国日报》特别指出，国家将引导外商投资资源更 多投向现代农业。21 重要政策变动 最后，根据农业部公布数据，2002年至2010年中国 农产品出口额平均年增长率达13.2%，尽管如此，中国 农民的土地使用权 社会科学院预计，中国的农产品进出口在中长期内可能 放缓。22 2013年11月，中共中央第十八届三中全会提出新一 轮改革方案，允许“计划经济时代遗留下来的农村集体 农业保险普及是近期的又一发展。据报道，此项 所有土地允许转让、租赁、入股”，但“不允许商业机 目在6个省级地区试点后，目前已覆盖16个省区，“截 构自由买卖土地，而只能创造更大的家庭农场。” 29 至2008年11月农业保险收入达到105.4亿元人民币，与 2007年同期相比骤增112％”。并且高达42亿元人民币 购买集体所有土地的另一个条件是，“企业只允 的补偿已经发放到超过一千万户家庭。23 许经营现代农业和养殖业，不得将土地用于房地产或 旅游业。” 29 此外，2009年，中央政府在全国10%区域内试行农 村养老保险制度。西南财经大学教授林义接受《中国日 该报道称，政府希望借此方式，“让农民家庭提高 报》采访时说，截至2011年，全国已有两亿农民参加养 收入，留在农村地区。而建造大型家庭农场则是提高农 老保险。预计该制度到2020年将在全国范围内施行。24 民收入的最有效方法；2012年，中国大约有877000个家 庭农场，平均年收入为184700元人民币（相当于30300 除了农业补贴和新养老保险制度外，政府建立“农 美元），比全国农村家庭平均收入多出十倍。” 29 村新型合作医疗制度”，改善农村医疗保险。据报道，该 制度在2010年已经覆盖中国内地93%的农民，“政府医保 世界银行的报告称，“尽管有大量农村人口离开 补助标准由上一年每人每年120元提高到200元，个人缴费 农业，由于农村人口有所增长，每个农村劳动力所耕种

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Notable Policy Activity “CPC Central Committee and State Council on the increasing intensity of urban and rural development” , placed emphasis on Better Land Use Rights for Farmers the reform and modernization of the rural economy—a large New reforms announced in November 2013 allow “rural part of which is unsurprisingly constituted by the agricultural collectively-owned land, a legacy of the planned economy, to sector. be transferred, rented or pooled” but will “stop short of giving According to Xinhua, the document states that in addition commercial firms free rein to buy land and will focus instead on to attempting to stimulate consumption in rural areas, the gov- creating bigger family farms,” Reuters reports.29 ernment will also “continue boosting financial input into the Another condition of the purchase of collectively-owned agriculture and rural areas,” an increase in financial input to be land is that “firms are only allowed to do modern farming and manifested in the following ways: livestock breeding, not real estate or tourism.”29 The move is reportedly part of the government’s effort “to [Budget expenditure] should first support development persuade families to stay in the countryside by raising incomes, of the agriculture and rural area, and fixed-asset invest- and the large-scale family farm has been identified as the most ment first be channeled into agricultural-related infra- effective method; each [of the country’s 877,000] family-owned structure and projects in relation to rural livelihood. farms earned 184,700 yuan ($30,300) in 2012, about ten times higher than the average rural household income.29 More subsidies should be channeled to increase the out- The World Bank reports that “despite massive off-farm -mi put of grain, potato, highland barley and peanut, as well gration, rural population growth has meant that cultivated land as the purchase of agricultural machinery, it said. per agricultural laborer has remained fairly constant, increas- ing only from 0.35 hectares in 1978 to 0.41 in 2008. Average The government would implement more policies for Chinese farm holdings are well under 1 hectare, far lower than purchasing and stockpiling major agricultural products, the global average; the average farm in the United States is 300 including corn, soybean and oilseeds, to stabilize prices times bigger than in China. “41 of major farm produce. Arguing against greater consolidation in the short-term, “researchers have said it was not suitable to develop farms on More efforts will be made to strengthen financial ser- the scale of those in the United States, given China’s huge pop- vices including micro-credit loans and insurance service ulation and the need to find work for 450 million farmers still in rural areas, according to the document.30 likely to live in the countryside by 2030.”29 On December 1, 2015, the Chinese central government The policy release reportedly also proposes increased focus issued a guideline in a bid to push the transformation of State on addressing issues arising from a “new generation of migrant farms before 2020. A week after the national government’s workers” (those born in the 1980s and 1990s) and methods by announcement, a senior official with the Ministry of which to stimulate the construction or refurbishment of rural Agriculture, Yang Shaopin, in a news conference, said that residential properties.30 China will transform its 1,780 State farms into “modern” Later in 2010, a Vice Minister of Agriculture “noted that agricultural market enterprises, even as he warned that this development of rural tourism (for example “farmstay” programs could be a “slow transitional process”. In a report by China in which comparatively-wealthy tourists temporarily reside in Daily, the national guideline said that the reform “is intended rural settings) was a strategic move to balance urban and rural to develop a number of agricultural production bases for grain, development and play multiple roles.” Such tourism promotion, cotton, sugar, milk, seeds and oil”. It also “aims to further raise said Mr. Gao, “not only help[s] to accelerate the strategic the income of workers, and improve infrastructure and public restructuring of agricultural and rural areas and promote services available to the workers.” Mr. Yang further added that employment of farmers and increase of their income as well as the central government will also “enhance the supervision of development of modern agriculture and a new countryside, but State-owned assets, as total assets of all State-farms in China also play[s] important roles in strengthening the interaction have already exceeded 1 trillion yuan ($156 billion). He said between urban and rural areas… [and coordinates the] that the total GDP of State-farms in 2015 is expected to reach development of rural and urban areas.”31 701 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8 percent.47 For all these efforts, however, significant gains appear elusive. Su Hainan of the China Association for Labour Studies Ongoing Attempts to Close the Income Gap Between Urban (a government think-tank) notes that urban incomes remain and Rural Workers three to four times higher than rural incomes.32Accordingly, The first official announcement of 2010, the opinion titled the 12th Five-Year Plan outlines three objectives concerning

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的土地面积一直比较稳定，从1978年的人均0.35公顷增 同年10月，中国农业部副部长高鸿宾在一次讲话 长到2008年的0.41公顷。中国人均农田面积远不到1公 中指出，“发展休闲旅游农业【例如相对富裕的游客在 顷，远低于全球平均水平。相比之下，美国的人均农田 农村短期居住的“农村体验”项目】是一篇统筹城乡发 面积是中国的300倍。”41 展、一举多得的战略文章”。高副部长称，发展休闲旅 游农业，“不仅有利于加快农业农村结构战略调整，促 研究人员认为，农场整合规模不宜在短期内扩大。 进农民就业增收，建设现代农业和新农村，而且在加强 他们说，“中国并不适合以美国那种规模发展农场，因 城乡互动、增强县域经济和城乡统筹发展方面发挥了重 为中国人口数量庞大，如果农业规模化发展，中国将需 要作用。”31 要为4.5亿农民创造就业机会，到2030年，大部分农业 人口可能仍然居住在农村地区。” 29 尽管政府已经采取多项举措，但似乎难以在短期 内取得显著成效。中国劳动学会（政府智囊）副会长苏 2015年12月1日，中国中央政府印发一份改革意见， 海南指出，城镇居民收入仍然比农村居民收入高三到四 旨在推动国有农场在2020年之前完成改革。政府的意见发 倍。32 因此，为缩小城乡收入差距，“十二五”规划提 布一周之后，中国农业部高级官员杨绍品在一次新闻发布 出三个具体目标： 会上表示，中国将改造1780个国有农场成为“现代”农业 市场企业，他也提醒这可能是一个“缓慢的转型过程”。 1. 稳定提高粮食产量（中国粮食产量应在未来五 根据《中国日报》报道，这份改革意见明确表示，改革 年之内增长五千万吨，然而，这个任务非常艰 的目的是“要建设一批大型粮食、棉花、糖料、牛奶、种 巨。）； 子、油料等重要农产品生产基地”，使“职工收入大幅提 高，基础设施和公共服务进一步健全。”杨绍品进一步补 2. 实行深化改革，为城乡居民提供均等的公共服 充说，中央政府也会“加强国有资产监管体制”，中国国 务（包括基础设施建设及维护、基本社会福 有农场资产已经超过一万亿元人民币（1560亿美元）。他 利、维护法律秩序、提供其他服务以满足教育 说，预计2015年国有农场的国内生产总值将达到7010亿元 和文化需求。）； 人民币，比去年同期增长8%。47 3. 通过各种新措施提高农民收入（培养更多职业 缩小城乡收入差距 农民、扩大职业农民的生产规模、提高其产品 在全球市场的竞争力。）33。 2010年首次正式出台的《中共中央国务院关于加大 统筹城乡发展力度，进一步夯实农业农村发展基础的若 中国农业部数据显示，2013年中国农村居民人均纯 干意见》，将重点放在农村经济的改革和现代化——毫 收入达到8896元。在农村居民收入增长的四大因素中，财 无悬念，其中一大部分内容涉及农业部门。 产性收入增速最快，比上年增长17.7%；其次为工资性收 入，同比增长16.8%；另外，转移性收入增长14.2%，家庭 根据新华社的报道，该文件指出，除了尝试刺激农 经营纯收入增长7.4%。2013年中国农民工总量达到26894 村消费外，政府还将“继续在农业和农村地区加大财政 万人，比上年增加633万人，同比增长2.4%。其中，本地 投入”，具体财政投入表现在以下几个方面： 农民工10284万人，同比增长3.6个百分点。农民工每月平 均收入水平达到2609元，比上年增长13.9%。”43 • 要确保财政支出优先支持农业及农村发展，预算 内固定资产投资优先投向农业基础设施和农村民 国家发展与改革委员会已经明确提出切实的目标， 生工程。 在今后五年内实现农村居民人均纯收入年均实际增长超 34 • 坚持对种粮农民实行直接补贴。增加良种补贴， 过7% 。 扩大马铃薯补贴范围，启动青稞良种补贴，实施 花生良种补贴试点，鼓励农业机械购买。 与此同时，政府正在逐步提高对农村家庭的福利 • 扩大销区粮食储备规模。适时采取玉米、大豆、 援助。2013年9月11日，中国国家计划生育委员会就新 油菜籽等临时收储政策，稳定主要农产品价格。 农村合作医疗制度工作发布通知，明确表示“从2013年 • 加大政策性金融对农村改革发展重点领域和薄弱 起，各级财政对新农村合作医疗系统的补助标准从每人 环节支持力度，包括积极推广农村小额信用贷款 每年240元提高到每人每年280元，政策范围内住院费 和保险服务。30 报销比例提高到75%左右。此外，2013年实现在部分省 份开展参合农民跨省异地就医和报销。九个省、自治区 政策报告中还建议增加了聚焦处理“新生代农民 和直辖市参与首批跨省就医和报销试点，其中包括北京 工”问题的内容（这一代人出生于上世纪八十、九十年 市、内蒙古自治区、吉林省和江苏省。”44 代），以及刺激农村建设或农村住宅翻新的内容。30

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narrowing the gap: though land still officially belongs to the State), reform in rural areas—and particularly with regard to arable land—has been 1. steadily increase grain output (grain production of slower.35 China should realize a capacity increase of 50 million In response to overzealous appropriation of agricultural land tons over the next five years, however, it will be a by localities, the “Regulation on Protecting Basic Farmland” was formidable task); enacted in 1994, with an amendment in 1999. The regulation 2. implement deeper reform to provide equal public services stipulates, basically, that agricultural land (which is scarce to (services include infrastructure and maintenance, basic begin with) is not to be reassigned to industrial or commercial social welfare, maintaining legal order, and providing purposes, and should neither be “left idle nor deserted.”5 other services to meet educational and cultural needs) The Ministry of Agriculture additionally noted that “in for urban and rural residents; and 2003, due to some tendency in some localities toward neglect- 3. raise the income for farmers by the means of new ing basic farmland protection in recent years, the Chinese Gov- measures (supporting more professional farmers, ernment issued the Circular on Further Measures to Implement expanding their business scale and making them more Strict Farmland Protection System,” in an oblique reference to competitive in the global market).33 the land appropriations by authorities looking to resell the land for profit, a significant cause of social unrest in rural areas.5 According to the Ministry of Agriculture, “in 2013 per The result of the circular was that “efforts have been made to capita net income of rural residents reached 8896 yuan. Among rectify and straighten out various kinds of development zones, the four elements in rural residents’ income, the fastest growing and resolutely reverse any illegal establishment of development one is property income, with an increased of 17.7 % over the zones and expansion of the areas the development zones previous year, followed by wage income, an increase of 16.8 occupy.” 5 %, while transfer income increased by 14.2 % , and family-run Xinhua subsequently reported that “More than 50,000 land income, 7.4%. The total number of China’s migrant workers dispute cases arose in 224 cities and counties across the country in 2013 was 26,894 million with an increase of 633 million from 2003 to March 2008.”36 compared with that of last year, increased by 2.4 percent, among The State Council also got involved, having issued the Cir- which local migrant workers were 10,284 million, increased by cular of the State Council on Strengthening Land Control 3.6 percent. The average income of migrant workers was ¥2609 (Guo Fa [2006] No. 31) in 2006, half-way through the period per month, with an increase of 13.9% over the previous year.” 43 of study reported by Xinhua.37 A stated, tangible goal of increasing net per capita income The Wall Street Journal suggests that reform efforts are still in rural regions by seven percent in real terms over the next five necessary, citing a Chinese Academy of Social Sciences report years has been articulated by the National Development and that 65 percent of the estimated 187,000 “mass incidents” Reform Commission.34 (demonstrations or protests) in 2010 were related to land dis- At the same time, the government is inching towards in- putes.38 creased assistance for the welfare of rural families. On Septem- In 2011, the State Council promulgated further measures to ber 11, 2013, the National Family Planning Council released an “correct procedural errors in the rural land use reform,”39 with announcement on the work of New Rural Cooperative Medical China Daily reporting Premier Wen Jiabao’s remarks that “re- System, which stated that “from 2013, the new rural coopera- gional authorities must protect farmers’ rights” and that no land tive medical system subsidy from financial department at all lev- should ever be taken “against a farmer’s will.”40 els should be increased from ¥240 per person per year to ¥280 The World Bank also concurs that land reforms in China per person per year, and the reimbursement rate for hospitaliza- are “likely to have the largest growth impact. Land is of central tion expenses covered by related policies should be increased to importance to China’s economic growth and social stability, about 75%. In 2013, the new rural cooperative medical system but local implementation of land policies has led to unintended was not confined to the local region and the reimbursement can consequences widely viewed as unsustainable (Urban China be made in different provinces. Nine provinces and municipal- (World Bank and DRC, 2014)). Rigid land policies have ities, including Beijing, Inner Mongolia, Jilin and Jiangsu were effectively tied half the population to rural areas that produce the first ones that had cross-province reimbursement.”44 only 10 percent of GDP. Rural land is held in small parcels, making it difficult to assemble economically sized farms, Ongoing Land Reform increase agricultural productivity, and raise rural incomes. The Rural land reform continues to be an issue of great impor- 2008 global economic crisis and the subsequent accommodative tance to a great number of people in China. While urban hous- fiscal policy stance have had a dramatic effect China’s land-based ing has been essentially privatized for more than a decade (al- economic growth model through accelerated land taking and

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继续进行土地改革 国：推进高效、包容、可持续的城镇化》）。目前中国 僵化的土地政策把一半人口捆在农村，而农村地区的国 农村土地改革对很多中国人来说仍然是意义重大的 内生产总值只占全国国内生产总值的10%。农田被划分 事情。城市住房已经在过去10年中逐渐被私有化（实际 为小块，难以整合起来形成具有经济规模的农场，以提 上仍归国有），农村地区土地改革，特别是可耕地的改 高农业生产力和农村收入。2008年的全球经济危机以及 革，进行较为缓慢。35 此后采取的宽松财政政策，对中国基于土地的经济增长 模式产生了重大影响，使农田征用和转化速度加快，进 农村土地改革对某些地区过分狂热的土地占有 一步暴露了当前土地承包制度造成的效率低下问题，使 行为做出了回应，《基本农田保护条例》于1994年制 改革的迫切性更加突出。” 41 定，1999年修订。根本上讲，条例规定基本农田保护区 经依法划定后，任何单位和个人不得改变或者占用，再 然而，该报告也提出警告，认为土地、公共财政 分配作工业或商业用途，禁止任何单位和个人闲置、荒 和户口制度的改革“需要慎重考虑，多方协调。改革 芜基本农田。5 需要重新调整土地用途，改善土地治理，降低政府财 政对土地转化和租赁收入的依赖。这些改革同时有助 国家农业部以严肃态度特别指出，“2003年，由于 于地方政府财政从依赖土地资产销售，向现代税收制 某些地区对基本农田保护的疏忽，为了认真贯彻执行《 度过渡，以更好地适应中国的新经济结构，也有助于 中华人民共和国土地管理法》、《基本农田保护条例》 深化土地市场，明确农村居民在农村的产权和土地资 ，进一步加强基本农田保护工作，中国政府发布了‘关 产，扩大他们融入城市的机会和应享有的各种权益。 于进一步加强基本农田保护工作的通知’”，作为土地 因此，要提高土地使用效率，就必须要确保农村土地 征用及占用为工业用地后给予租地人的不同程度补偿的 承包权，包括允许土地权利转让、改革土地征用和补 倾斜性参考。据最近的报道，这成为了农村地区不稳定 偿方法等。为此，政府已于近期出台新的政策，决定 的重要因素之一。5 给予农民无限期土地使用权，扩大土地登记，并强化 农村土地市场。”41 公告出台后“整顿了各种开发区，坚决扭转了所有 违规设立的开发区以及开发区占地扩大。”5 通过立法保障食品安全

新华社随后报道称，“从2003年到2008年3月，全 食品安全仍然受到广泛关注，中国也一直试图通过 国有224个城市及乡村中出现了超过50000宗土地纠纷 立法来解决食品问题。2012年6月，中国公布了一个五 案件。”36 年规划，“以升级完善国家食品安全法规。据官方媒体 新华社报道，政府将修订不适应时代发展的法律法规， 国务院也非常关心农村土地改革相关问题。在新华 清理整合相互矛盾或重叠交叉的食品安全标准，到2015 社进行调研期间，国务院于2006年8月31日下发《国务院 年底出台新的食品安全配套法规。目前中国与食品相关 关于加强土地调控有关问题的通知》（国发【2006】31 的国家标准有2000多项，行业标准2900多项，很多标准 号文件）。37 之间存在矛盾、交叉和重复。”45

《华尔街日报》指出，中国仍然需要致力于改革。 根据规划，“卫生部、工业和信息化部和农业部 该报援引中国社会科学院的一份报告称，2010年中国估计 在内的十四个政府部门将通力合作，清理整合食品安 发生了187000起“群体性事件”（游行或抗议活动），其 全国家标准，重点对乳制品、婴幼儿食品、肉类、酒 中有65%与土地纠纷相关。38 类、植物油、调味品、保健品和食品添加剂的食品标准 进行清理整合。2012年6月，时任国务院总理温家宝主 2011年，国务院颁布多项措施，“纠正农村用地改 持了一次关于食品安全的国务院行政会议，会后发布的 革的程序性错误”。39《中国日报》报道温家宝总理指 公告称，“整合食品安全标准是政府为确保食品安全而 示，“地方政府必须保护农民的权益”，不得“违背农 进行的一项繁重的任务”，因为中国的食品行业仍然存 民的意愿”征用土地。40 在“管理不规范和许多潜在的安全风险”。国务院表示 要“严厉打击”危害食品安全的犯罪分子。该公告说， 世界银行也认为，中国土地改革“可能最有助于 政府应该“通过构建全程覆盖、运转高效的机制加强食 推动中国经济增长。中国要保持经济增长，维护社会稳 品安全监管，并建立健全严格的食品召回和销毁管理制 定，最关键的因素就是土地。但是，地方制定的土地政 度。”此外，政府也将努力建立对污染物质、食品添加 策并不能达到预期的效果，其执行结果往往是不可持续 剂、微生物、农药残留和兽药残留的检测标准。45 的（见世界银行和中国国务院发展研究中心的报告《中

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conversion, bringing the inefficiencies of current land tenure government altered most of its content. The Draft FSL “focuses arrangements and the need for reform into even clearer focus.” 41 on risk assessment and management. It requires increased atten- However, it also cautions that reforms to land, public fi- tion to government monitoring of specific risks (i.e., foodborne nance and the hukou system “require a carefully coordinated illnesses, illegal additives, and other forms of contamination), approach. Reforms need to recalibrate the use of land, improve assessment of those threats by a centralized government body, land governance, and reduce the government’s dependence on and the subsequent enactment of standards or adoption of revenue from land conversions and land leases. They could other mitigation measures that are proportional to the size of facilitate the transition from land asset sales to a modern tax the risk. At the same time, the Draft FSL also requires greater system aligned better with China’s new economic structure. responsibility on the part of manufacturers and distributors of They could also deepen land markets, clarify rural citizens in food. For example, the draft requires self-audits by food man- their property rights and land assets at home, and boost their ufacturers.The Draft FSL imposes additional requirements on opportunities and entitlements for integrating into cities. Thus entities in various segments of the food industry and in different to increase the efficiency of land use, it is necessary to ensure parts of the supply chain (manufacturing, distribution, retail) the security of agricultural land tenure, including introducing to ensure safety. For example, it requires that infant formula the transferability of land rights and reforming land acquisi- manufacturers implement special good manufacturing practices tion and compensation practices. This action includes rolling and that they self-audit and report on those audits to local food out the recent policy decision to grant indefinite land use rights and drug authorities. It also prohibits contract manufacturing to farmers, to expand land registration, and to strengthen rural by infant formula manufacturers.” 46 land markets. “41 Among the most far reaching requirements are those relat- ed to penalties. The Draft FSL increases penalties and liabili- Legislating Towards Food Safety ties significantly. Specifically, the draft increases administrative Food safety remains an ongoing concern, so in yet another fines by agencies for FSL violations, the potential for civil com- attempt to legislate its way to food safety, China released a pensatory and punitive damages in related litigation, and the new five-year plan “to upgrade its food safety regulations in potential for criminal prosecution. Perhaps more ominous is June 2012. According to the official Xinhua News Agency, the the pledge to strengthen the “link” between food safety regu- government will revamp outdated rules, review and abolish lation and criminal penalties. The Draft FSL calls for “prompt” contradicting or overlapping standards, and draft new codes reporting of suspected food safety crimes by CFDA and other by 2015. There are currently more than 2,000 national food administrative agencies to the Ministry of Public Security (Chi- regulations and 2,900 industry-based regulations on the books, na’s police force) for immediate investigation. China has already many of them overlapping or contradictory.”45 cracked down on violators of food safety standards through the According to the plan, “14 government departments, in- Criminal Code over the last several years. The draft law increas- cluding the ministries of health, science and technology, and es the trend toward criminal prosecution in this area.46 agriculture, will work to revamp safety standards, with priority given to dairy products, infant food, meat, alcohol, vegetable oil, seasoning, health products, and food additives. “It is an onerous task for the government to ensure food safety,” because China’s food industry still suffers from “nonstandard manage- ment and many hidden safety risks,” said a statement released in June 2012 following a State Council executive meeting presided over by Premier Wen Jiabao. The State Council vowed a “vigor- ous crackdown” on those who endanger food safety. The gov- ernment should “enhance supervision by setting up an efficient mechanism that covers all links in the food industry and a rigid food recall system for destroying defective products,” the state- ment said. Moreover, the government will make “special efforts” to establish standards for testing contaminants, food additives, microorganisms, and pesticide and animal drugs. 45 In 2014, the National People’s Congress (NPC), released a draft of the revised Food Safety Law (Draft FSL) for pub- lic comment. Formerly called the Food Hygiene Law and re- named Food Safety Law in 2009, which was also when the

120 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

2014年，中国全国人民代表大会公布了《中华人 民共和国食品安全法（修订草案）》（简称“食品安全 法草案”），向社会公开征求意见。该法律前身为《食 品卫生法》，政府于2009年修订了大部分内容，并改称 为《食品安全法》。《食品安全法草案》“突出风险评 估和管理，更加重视政府对特定风险的监测（即食源性 疾病、非法添加剂以及其他食品污染），由中央政府部 门对特定风险作出评估，随后根据风险评估的结果执行 相关食品国家标准，或者采取相应的缓解措施。与此同 时，《食品安全法草案》要求食品生产者和经营者承担 更大的责任。例如，草案要求食品生产经营者自查食品 安全状况。该草案对食品行业各方面和食品供应链（生 产、流通、零售）各个环节的主体提出更多要求，以确 保食品安全。例如，草案要求婴幼儿配方奶粉生产企业 实施良好的生产规范，而且定期对生产质量管理体系的 运行情况进行自查，并向所在地的食品药品监督管理部 门提交自查报告。此外，草案禁止以委托、贴牌、分装 方式生产婴幼儿配方奶粉。46

影响最深远的是关于违法处罚的规定。《食品安 全法草案》大幅度提高了处罚力度和赔偿责任。具体而 言，对违反食品安全法的行为，行政部门提高了行政罚 金数额，消费者在法定情形下可以要求民事赔偿和惩罚 性赔偿，甚至可以追究刑事责任。最严厉的一点是要求 把食品安全法规与刑事责任衔接起来。食品安全法草案 规定，一旦发现涉嫌食品安全犯罪的行为，食品药品监 督管理和其他行政管理部门应当迅速向公安机关（中国 的警察部门）报告，公安机关应当及时审查。近几年 来，中国已经通过修订刑法来打击违反食品安全标准的 犯罪分子，《食品安全法草案》的出台增加了食品安全 犯罪刑事处罚的趋势。46

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6 “China’s rural pension program covers 199 million people.” Xinhua. 17 “The Survey of Foreign Investment in China’s Agriculture Industry July 25, 2011. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011- in 2008.” Invest in China. November 9, 2009. http://www.fdi.gov. 07/25/c_131008696.htm. cn/pub/FDI_EN/Economy/Sectors/Agriculture/Agriculture/ t20091109_114154.htm. 7 “Agricultural industry makes progress.” China Daily. August 27, 2012. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012-08/27/ 18 “The Survey of Foreign Investment in China’s Agriculture Industry content_15710221.htm. in 2009.” Invest in China. October 13, 2010. http://www.fdi.gov. cn/pub/FDI_EN/Economy/Sectors/Agriculture/Agriculture/ 8 Niu Shuping and Naveen Thukral. “Exclusive: China may become t20101013_127264.htm. top wheat importer after crops ruined.”Reuters . July 16, 2013. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/16/us-china-wheat- 19 “Regular Press Conference of the Ministry of Commerce on idUSBRE96F1F120130716. 18 January.” Ministry of Commerce People Republic of China. January 20, 2011. http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/ 9 Zhou Siyu. “Agricultural modernization lagging.” China Daily. May newsrelease/press/201101/20110107377859.html. 14, 2012. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012-05/14/ content_15290498.htm. Accessed November 15, 2012. 20 Si Tingting. “Global Investors’ Faith in China Swells.” China Daily. September 18, 2009. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ 10 “China to check implementation of agriculture law.” China china/2009-09/18/content_8705843.htm. Daily. August 27, 2012. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ china/2012-08/27/content_15708158.htm. 21 Bao Chang. “FDI Continues to Be Strong.” China Daily. March 16, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/usa/business/2011-03/16/ 11 Barbara Demick. “China wrestles with food safety problems.” Los content_12180308.htm. Angeles Times. June 26, 2011. http://articles.latimes.com/2011/ jun/26/world/la-fg-china-food-20110627. 22 “China’s agriculture sector faces rising costs in 2011: Think Tank.” Xinhua. April 19, 2011. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/ china/2011-04/19/c_13836441.htm.

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23 “China’s Agriculture Insurance Income Exceeds 10 Bln Yuan by 35 “Still Not to The Tiller.”The Economist. October 23, 2008. November.” Xinhua. December 27, 2008. http://news.xinhuanet. http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_ com/english/2008-12/27/content_10567975.htm. id=12471124.

24 “China Extending Pension Program to Countryside.” China Daily 36 “China’s Legislature Eyes Stability with Law On Rural Land via Xinhua. September 16, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ Disputes Meditation.” Xinhua. June 27, 2009. http://news. bizchina/2011-09/16/content_13718620.htm. xinhuanet.com/english/2009-06/27/content_11609910.htm.

25 “Wealth Gap-Narrowing Programs Power Up China’s Rural 37“Circular of the State Council on Strengthening Land Control.” The State Market.” Xinhua. April 14, 2011. http://news.xinhuanet.com/ Council of the People’s Republic of China. August 31, 2006. http:// english2010/china/2011-04/14/c_13828608.htm. www.fdi.gov.cn/pub/FDI_EN/Laws/GeneralLawsandRegulations/ AdministrativeRegulations/P020070302595840935893.pdf. 26 Hu Yuanyuan “China Plans Weather Insurance to Help Farmers.” China Daily. July 20, 2010. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ 38 Tim Hanstad. “Anchoring Land Rights in China.” The Wall Street bizchina/2010-07/20/content_11022571.htm. Journal. October 17, 2011. http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20111017/ opn075701_ENversion.shtml. 27 黄嵋. “安华农险重谋上市 分析师称5年内难以上市.” 21 世纪经济报道. September 30, 2010. http://finance.sina.com. 39“国务院关于严格规范城乡建设用地增减挂钩试点切 cn/stock/newstock/zxdt/20100930/00088727519.shtml. 实做好农村土地整治工作的通知国发〔2010〕47号.” The Central People’s Government of the People’s Republic of 28 “China to Promote Agricultural Insurance.” China Daily. May China. April 2, 2011. http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2011-04/02/ 4,2012.http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012-05/04/ content_1837370.htm. content_15213871.htm. 40 Cang Wei. “Premier Wen: Farmers’ Rights a Priority.” China 29 David Stanway and Niu Shuping. “China’s Top Farm Official Reins Daily. April 5, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/usa/ in Land Reform Expectations.” Reuters. December 5, 2013. http:// china/2011-04/05/content_12278426.htm. www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/05/us-china-agriculture-land- idUSBRE9B408G20131205. 41 “China Economic Update - Special Topic: An Update of China’s Fiscal and Tax Reforms”. World Bank. October 29, 2014. http:// 30 “China Pledges New Efforts to Boost Rural Development.”Xinhua . www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/EAP/ January 31, 2010. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/ China/CEU_Oct29_en.pdf china/2010-01/31/c_13157837.htm. 42 Xing, Wen-Yan, “The Impact of China’s Fiscal Expenditure in 31 Liang Baozhong. “Development of Rural Tourism Is a Strategic Move Agriculture on Farmers’ Income.” Asian Agricultural Research to Balance Urban and Rural Develop and Play Multiple Rolesment.” Volume 2, Issue 05, May 2010. http://purl.umn.edu/94264 October 25, 2010. The Ministry of Agriculture of The People’s Republic of China. http://english.agri.gov.cn/ga/news/201010/ 43 “2013 per Capita Net Income of Rural Residents Reached 8896 t20101025_2556.htm. Yuan”. Ministry of Agriculture of the People’s Republic of China. January 22, 2014. http://www.moa.gov.cn/fwllm/qgxxlb/ 32 “News Analysis: Big Changes Sweep Rural China.” China xj/201401/t20140123_3746486.htm Daily. April 26, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ china/2011-04/26/content_12398251.htm. 44 Xu Wei. China Agriculture Information. January 7, 2014. http://www. agri.gov.cn/V20/ZX/nyyw/201401/t20140107_3732704.htm 33 Dang Guoying. “Better Future For Farmers.” China Daily. March 23, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2011-03/23/ 45 Ted Agres, “Despite Regulatory Reform, China’s Food Safety content_12212507.htm. Remains Problematic”. Food Quality & Safety Magazine, February/March 2013. http://www.foodquality.com/details/ 34 Zheng Lifei. “Foreign Investment in China Climbs 15% on article/4366181/Despite_Regulatory_Reform_Chinas_Food_ Consumer Demand.” BloombergBusinessweek. May 16, 2011. Safety_Remains_Problematic.html?tzcheck=1 http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-05-16/foreign- investment-in-china-climbs-15-on-consumer-demand.html.

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46 John Balzano and Allan Topol. “New Food Safety Law for China.” Global Policy Watch, Covington & Burling LLP. July 23, 2014. http://www.globalpolicywatch.com/2014/07/new-food-safety- law-for-china/

47 Xu Wei. “State Farms to be Converted into Market Entities.” Chi- na Daily. December 7, 2015. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/chi- na/2015-12/07/content_22653204.htm

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2.2 Chemicals, Bio-chemicals and Energy

he majority of power generation in the PRC— “Green groups,” writes Reuters, “were expecting the action Tapproximately 70 percent—is via coal. According to a for- plan to include detailed regional coal consumption cuts, but mer National Energy Administration official, this is roughly 30 those cuts appear to have been left to the provinces to settle percent higher than the world average.1 themselves.”10 Whereas persistent power shortages at the generation level Such efforts may have repercussions far beyond China’s own have historically been attributed to shortages in production, as borders, as well: well as infrastructure unable to support the extensive circulation necessary to keep plants running in areas lacking local supplies2, A choking smog across much of northern China threat- the decrease in power consumption as factories closed during ens not just the health of local residents, but also of ma- the economic slowdown in 2008 actually led to the encourage- jor coal projects globally that are still on the drawing ment of exporting coal.3 board. At that time, PRC National Development and Reform Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Guobao observed that […] “the downward trend in the domestic consumer price index and falling international prices for major staple energy commodi- With China’s coal demand the primary driver for a slew ties provide an opportunity and room to normalize the pricing of mine investments over the past decade, this trend mechanism for coal used in power plants.”3 could derail a list of capital intensive coal projects from Nonetheless, today coal demand outpaces domestic pro- Australia to Indonesia and Mozambique. duction4 and coal exports have declined since 2008. In January 2011 China Daily reported a 31 percent increase in net coal im- Even without the environmental drive, new railways ports over 2010 following a 29 percent increase in 2009 and a from mines to ports, falling investment in coal-fired predicted increase of as much as 63 percent for the remainder generation and slowing power demand growth could of that year. By comparison, coal exports were reported to have see China’s miners export some of their surplus output declined by 15 percent in 2010.5 at competitive prices, hitting regional miners and the Domestic coal production is concentrated in thirteen large viability of new projects. “coal production bases” across the country, which “produced 2.8 billion tons in 2010, accounting for 87.5 percent of the This is a major shift for a country that built an average country’s production.” A fourteenth, in Xinjiang, is expected to of two coal-fired power plants every week in the last de- be completed within five years.6 cade, went from net exporter in 2009 to the world’s top Given an increase in net imports and continued efforts to importer just two years later, and burns nearly as much expand domestic production capacity, coal will likely continue coal as the rest of the world combined. to play a primary role in the nation’s power production in the near future—a situation which will benefit from efforts made “China is kicking its coal addiction,” said Chen Yafei, since at least 2008 to upgrade power plants to become more ef- vice-director at the China Coal Research Institute. ficient, with approximately 60 percent of new plants being built “With slower economic growth and a big push towards incorporating technologies that would allow them to achieve gas and renewables, the golden decade for coal is over.”11 higher energy conservation efficiency rates than the most -effi cient plants in the United States (albeit only if actually used in As noted by Mr. Chen, a growing proportion of capacity for- daily operation).7 merly served by coal may go to non-traditional sources. Similarly, Xinhua reports that many of the most inefficient In March 2011, non-fossil fuels were estimated to account coal-fired plants have been closed.8 The net effect may be min- for 8 percent of the nation’s total energy consumption, with imal for the short term, however: one new coal burning power the 12th Five-Year Plan setting the goal of increasing that figure plant goes under construction every week.9 to 11.4 percent by 2015.8 The category of non-fossil fuels is In 2013 the government announced a new plan to address understood to include “the energy sources of hydropower, wind widespread and sometimes severe pollution problems. Part of power, solar power, biogas, and nuclear.”12 that plan entails cutting total consumption of coal “to below 65 White Paper contributor Dezan Shira & Associates reports percent of primary energy use by 2017.”10 that “China will spend an estimated US$1.54 trillion on clean

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2.2 化学、生物化学与能源业

中国主要通过烧煤来发电，约占发电总量的70%。 这份行动计划不但对中国具有重要意义，而且可能 国家能源局一名前任官员表示，中国煤炭发电量的比例 会影响其他国家： 比世界平均水平高出30% 。1 中国北方大部分地区出现的严重雾霾天气不仅 近年来，电量在总体上出现短缺，原因在于煤炭产量 威胁到当地居民的身体健康，也使那些仍处于 不足，基础设施不完善，向缺煤地区大规模输送困难2。然 规划阶段的全球大型煤炭项目面临搁置风险。 而，2008年经济放缓引起的部分工厂倒闭，导致耗电量不 断下降，实际上鼓励了煤炭出口3。 […]

当时，中国国家发展与改革委员会副主任张国宝指 鉴于中国的煤炭需求是过去十年煤炭业巨大投 出，“国内消费者价格指数的回落趋势以及国际大宗能 资的主要驱动因素，上述趋势可能会对澳大利 源资源产品价格的下调，为进一步完善电煤价格市场机 亚与印度尼西亚和莫桑比克之间的多个资本密 制，理顺煤、电价格关系，改善发电行业经营状况，提 集型煤炭项目造成严重影响。 供了机会和空间。”3 即便没有环保因素，由于矿场至港口新铺铁 然而，目前煤炭需求已经超过国内产量，并且煤炭 路、火力发电投资下降以及电力需求增速放 出口从2008年起开始出现下降趋势4。2011年1月，据《中 缓，使中国煤矿企业能够以具有竞争优势的价 国日报》报道，2010年煤炭净进口量增长了31%，2009年 格出口部分过剩产能，从而对当地矿商以及新 该增幅为29%，预计2011年增幅将达63%；比较之下，2010 项目的可行性造成冲击。 年煤炭出口量下降了15% 。5 对于中国来说，这无疑是一场重大转变。在过 国内煤炭产量主要集中在全国十三个大型“煤炭生 去十年里，中国平均每周建设两座火力发电 产基地”，“2010年的煤炭产量达到28亿吨，占全国总 厂，2009年还是煤炭净出口国，仅仅两年之后 产量的87.5%”。新疆将建成全国第十四个煤炭生产基 就转变成全球最大的煤炭进口国，煤炭消耗量 地，预计在五年内建成投产。6 几乎是全球其他国家消耗量的总和。

尽管净进口量持续增加，国内生产能力也在不断加 中国煤炭科学研究总院副主任陈亚飞表示，“中 强，在未来几年里，煤炭将仍然在中国电力生产中扮演 国正在戒除煤炭依赖症。受经济增速放缓及政府 举足轻重的角色——从2008年以来，中国采取各种措施 对天然气以及其他清洁能源的推进所累，煤炭业 升级发电厂，提高能效，在大约60%的新建发电厂使用 的黄金十年已经结束了。” 11 先进技术，争取实现比大多数美国发电厂更高的节能效 7 率（虽然只在日常运作的情况下如此）。 正如陈亚飞所言，原本依靠煤炭创造的产能，正越 来越多转向使用非传统能源。 与此同时，新华网报道称，很多效益极其低下的 8 燃煤发电厂已经关闭 。但是，这在短期之内带来的效 2011年3月，非化石燃料估计占全国总能源消耗量 果是微乎其微的：因为每个星期都有一家新发电厂建 的8%，“十二五”规划设定目标，到2015年该比例将提 9 成投产。 高到11.4%8。非化石燃料包括“水力、风力、太阳能、 沼气和核能等能量来源。”12 2013年，全国普遍存在环境污染问题，有些地方还 特别严重。为此，政府出台大气污染防治行动计划，表 据《白皮书》供稿者协力管理咨询有限公司 示要控制煤炭消费总量，“目标是到2017年，让煤炭占 （Dezan Shira & Associates）介绍，“在未来十五年内， 10 能源消耗总量比重降低到65%以下。” 中国将会投资大约1.54万亿美元用于清洁能源项目”， 并在清洁能源领域进行一系列的并购行动，以体现持续 路透社称，“绿色环保团体原本希望该行动计划能 增长。12 够细化对各地区的具体要求，但煤炭消耗量降低多少， 这似乎由各省份自行决定。”10

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energy projects in the next 15 years,” and that it expects merger The May 12, 2008 earthquake in Sichuan, however, high- and acquisition activity in the field to show continuing growth12 lighted concerns about the stability of hydroelectric infrastruc- Development of nuclear power is expected to proceed but ture. Minister of Water Resources Chen Lei announced two is unlikely to outstrip other sources in the clean energy mix. days following the disaster that some 391 dams were believed Whereas in 2009 a State Nuclear Power Technology Corp to be badly damaged—but even before the earthquake raised (CNPTC) analyst told China Daily that nuclear power genera- doubts about the structural integrity of the more than 87,000 tion then accounted for less than 2 percent of the nation’s over- dams in China, Deputy Minister of Water Resources Jiao Yong all capacity13, a reported government investment of 600 billion went on record saying that “roughly 37,000 dams across the yuan over 10 years14 may help to increase nuclear generation’s country are in a dangerous state.”21 role in satiating China’s increasing energy demands. Despite these concerns, plans exist to expand installed hy- By January 2011, there were 15 nuclear power reactors across dropower capacity by an additional 140 million kilowatts by four sites in the PRC, and 26 additional reactors under construc- 2015 and 450 million kilowatts by 2030.22 tion;15 although historically nuclear sites have been built in coastal Work on these plans has already begun; Dezan Shira reports regions, new plants are also planned for inland areas.16 that “Between the second half of 2010 and the first quarter of According to Li Junfeng, Deputy Director-General of the 2011, 10 new major hydropower stations were approved, with NDRC’s Energy Research Institute, “The move to further 50 gigawatts of total installed capacity and investments of more develop nuclear power is integral for China to achieve its goals than RMB200 billion,” and that likely areas for foreign invest- in emission control”17 ment include hydropower equipment manufacture, operational “Building more nuclear power stations is essential to China’s support services and technology upgrades.12 endeavor to cope with energy shortage and pollution,” agreed As of late 2013, “hydropower capacity [was] targeted to deputy director of the Science and Technology Committee of grow about 6 percent a year to reach 290 gigawatts by 2015.”11 the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) Ye Qizhen: Solar power joins hydroelectric in being a “green” source of “China’s installed capacity of nuclear power is expected to reach power generation, and there has been emphasis on developing 70 million kW by 2020, 200 million kilowatts by 2030 and 400 solar power with similar enthusiasm. A China Daily report in million kW by 2050, [… which means that] nuclear power will December 2009 trumpeted the “official statistics” showing that account for 7 percent of China’s overall power capacity in 2020, China consumes more hydroelectric- and solar-generated elec- 15 percent in 2030 and 22 percent in 2050.”18 The target for tricity than any other nation, although the report did not pro- generation set in the 12th Five-Year Plan is to reach a capacity vide a reference to the statistics themselves and does not discuss of 40 million kW.16 per-capita consumption.20 A Xinhua article from two months Externalities may play a long-lasting role in the development prior reported that “more than 6,000 tonnes of polycrystalline of the sector. “In the aftermath of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear silicon (a key material in producing solar power) and 2 million crisis in Japan, Beijing cut its 2020 nuclear power capacity tar- kw of solar photovoltaic cells” were produced in 2008.23 get to 58 gigawatt (GW) from 80-90 GW,” reports Reuters.19 The Wall Street Journal cites an estimate that the PRC will Problematically, “aggressive expansion of nuclear power is account for 13 percent of global demand for solar generation running into a major stumbling block—a breakdown of trust, equipment by 2015, up from a current 7 percent in 2011.24 post-Fukushima, in official assurances of public safety.” In July A goal of 20 gigawatts of installed solar capacity by 2020 of 2013, for example, “a $6 billion uranium processing plant in had been published in mid-2010;25 meanwhile, the 2015 target the southern province of Guangdong was canceled [after] about is 10 gigawatts.12 Reuters reports that by the end of 2010 there a thousand people took to the streets demanding the project existed 900 megawatts of capacity in the country.26 was scrapped over public health and environmental fears.”19 To encourage the construction of more solar power plants, “Industry insiders blamed the cancellation of the project on the PRC government initiated a program called the “Golden poor communication and a lack of public education. They say if Sun” subsidy, which was announced in 2009 and includes a 50 things do not improve more protests could spring up elsewhere, percent subsidy of all grid-connected sola investments and 70 threatening those plans to build new reactors.”19 percent of off-grid photovoltaic investments.12 The nation re- Hydropower, a strong contributor to China’s power produc- portedly hopes to surpass Germany as the world’s largest solar tion, especially in central and western provinces, was attributed energy market by 2013.27 approximately 7.8 percent of the national installed capacity in Inefficient transmission is said to be the biggest challenge 2008, up from one percent in 1949.20 to fully exploiting the benefits of “green” power generation, In 2010, the PRC owned the world’s largest installed hydro- however20 one project to address this concern is the State Grid power capacity (213 gigawatts), the majority of which is located Corporation of China’s plan to build a network of ultra-high- in southern and western provinces.12 voltage (UHV) transmission lines by 2020.28 The first part of

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核能发电将会继续发展，但是在清洁能源组合中， 生两天后，水利部部长陈雷宣称，在地震中大约有391 核能不太可能超越其他能源。而在2009年，国家核电技 座大坝遭受严重破坏。但是，在该地震发生之前，中国 术公司（CNPTC）一名分析师告诉《中国日报》记者，核 超过87000座大坝的结构完整性已遭质疑。水利部副部 能发电仅占全国整体发电能力低于2％13，另有报道称政 长矫勇公开表示，“全国大约有37000座大坝处于危险 府将在未来十年内投资6000亿元人民币用于核能发电14。 状态”21。 中国对能源的需求日益增加，国家对核能发电的投入可 能有助于满足中国的能源需求。 尽管存在这些顾虑，中国仍然计划在2015年之前增 加水力发电装机容量1.4亿千瓦，在2030年之前增加4.5 截至2011年1月，中国的四个核电站共有15个核动 亿千瓦时。22 力堆，另外还有26个正在建设之中；15虽然一直以来核 电站都建于沿海地区，但是内陆地区也有建造计划。16 这些计划的前期工作已经开始；协力管理咨询有限 公司报告称，“从2010年下半年到2011年第一季度，十 国家发展与改革委员会能源研究所副所长李俊峰指 个大型水力发电站的建设申请获得批准，总装机容量达 出，“中国进一步发展核能发电的举措有助于中国实现 500亿瓦特，投资金额超过2000亿元人民币”，外资可 减排的目标”17。 以投资的领域包括水力发电设备制造、运作支持服务以 及技术升级等。12 “建设更多核电站对解决中国能源短缺和污染问 题至关重要。”中国核工业集团（CNNC）科技委副主任 2013年的目标是，水电装机容量每年增长6%左右， 叶奇蓁说，“中国现有核电装机容量预计在2020年达到 到2015年达到290千兆瓦。11 7000万千瓦，2030年达到2亿千瓦，2050年达到4亿千 瓦，（这就意味着）到2020年，2030年和2050年，核电 太阳能与水电相结合是真正环保的能源来源，而中 将分别占中国整体发电能力的7％，15％和22％18。“十 国也开始重点发展太阳能。《中国日报》2009年12月报道 二五”规划设定的目标是达到四千万千瓦。16 引用“官方数据”宣称中国对水电和太阳能发电的消耗 量比其它任何国家都大20。据新华社早前两个月的文章报 国外因素可能对中国核能的发展造成长远的影 道，“2008年，中国生产了600余吨的多晶硅（一种生产 响。据路透社报道，“在2011年日本福岛核危机之 太阳能的主要材料）和200万千瓦太阳能光伏电池。”23 后，中国把2020年的核能目标从80-90千兆瓦削减至58 千兆瓦。19” 《华尔街日报》报道推测，到2015年，中国对太阳 能发电设备的需求量占全球需求总量的比例将会从目前 问题是，“中国积极推进核能发展的计划遇到了重 （2011年）的7%上升到13% 24。 大障碍—在福岛核危机之后，官方对公众做出的安全承 诺遭遇信任危机”。例如，2013年7月，“位于中国南 2010年年中，政府公布了到2020年太阳能发电装机 部的广东鹤山市突然宣布取消兴建投资额高达60亿美元 容量达到200亿瓦特的目标；25而2015年的目标为100亿 的金属铀加工厂项目。此前，上千市民上街游行示威， 瓦特。12 路透社报道称，到2010年年底，中国拥有太阳 以公共健康和环境污染为由要求取消该项目”19。 能发电装机容量达九亿瓦特26。

“业内人士将该项目的取消归咎于沟通不畅以及缺 为了鼓励建造更多太阳能发电站，中国政府启动了 乏对公众的引导教育。他们表示，如果情况不能有所改 光伏发电项目，即“金太阳”补助工程。该计划于2009 善，其他地方还会出现更多的抗议，进而威胁新建核反 年公布，补助包括：并网光伏发电项目的，按总投资的 应堆的计划”19。 50%补助；偏远无电地区的独立光伏系统，按总投资的 70%补助12。据报道，中国希望在2013年超越德国，成为 水力发电也是中国电力生产的重要组成部分，尤其 世界最大的太阳能市场。27 是在中西部省份。2008年，水力发电占到同年全国整体 发电装机总容量的7.8％，比1949年的比例高出一个百 然而，传输效率低下是充分利用“绿色”发电能源 分点。20 面临的最大难题20。为了解决这个问题，国家电网公司 计划在2020年之前建立超高压输电线路网28。该输电网 2010年，中国拥有世界上最大的水力发电装机容量 的第一批工程，即连接山西长治和湖北荆门的超高压交 （2130亿瓦特），主要位于南部和西部省份。12 流输电线路，已经于2009年完工。29

正因如此，发生于2008年5月12日的四川大地震引 2011年1月，路透社对国家电网公司建设超高压输 起了人们对水力发电能源稳定性的关注。四川大地震发 电线路网进行报道时指出，该公司“支配超过5000亿元

131 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

this grid, an AC line linking Shanxi province to Jingmen city in [2011] No. 46), which is expected to both incentivize legiti- Hubei province, was completed in 2009.29 mate biodiesel production while also preventing the illegal ‘re- A January 2011 Reuters report on the State Grid Corpora- cycling’ of restaurant waste oil: in 2010 it was reported that two tion’s plans for UHV transmission lines indicated that the com- to three million tons of swill-cooked dirty oil were returned to pany was “alone earmarking more than 500 billion yuan ($76 dining tables every year in the PRC, seriously threatening the billion) to build 40,000 km of lines by 2015;”30 the State Grid country’s food safety and public health.34 Corporation itself reports that it plans to complete a total of Oil’s importance to China’s development and the inevitable 10 UHV projects by 2015 and 15 by 2020, with a budgeted in- increase in fuel consumption as more consumer purchase vestment of approximately 1.6 trillion yuan (significantly more in automobiles remains a far more immediate concern than than was earlier reported by Reuters).29 biofuels. According to Xinhua, the PRC ranked fifth among oil “Green” generation technology is also receiving government producing nations as of 200835, and remains the world’s second- support*, including the requirement that all electricity gener- largest oil consumer36. ated by renewable methods must be purchased by the (state- As of December 2008, the building of the second phase of owned) grid companies, and that the purchase of the same is to China’s strategic oil reserves (rumored to hold up to approxi- be supervised by the State Council Energy Department and the mately 170 million barrels, but still dwarfed by the U.S. Strate- State Power Regulatory Agency, with the caveat that those par- gic Petroleum Reserve, with its capacity of 700 million barrels ties, in addition to the State Council Finance Department, are of crude oil) was confirmed.37 to “determine the proportion of renewable energy power gen- The importance of this strategic reserve is highlighted by the eration to the overall generating capacity for a certain period.”20 PRC’s heavy reliance on imports for consumption: a January Despite such regulatory benefits for renewable generation, 2010 article in China Daily noted that “Imported crude oil ac- coal will likely continue to play the most important role in pow- counted for 52 percent of the country’s total oil consumption er generation in the country: in 2009 Asian Development Bank last year,” and that “Importing more than 50 percent is a global- official Ashok Bhargava noted that “no matter how much re- ly recognized energy security alert level.”38 newable or nuclear is in the mix, coal will remain the dominant By May of that year, an article in the same publication more power source.”7 casually reported Sinopec officials stating that “The country Coal’s dominance will likely continue for the coming 40 to may have to rely on imports to meet as much as 70 percent of its 50 years, Ni Weidou of the Chinese Academy of Engineering crude oil needs in the next decade,” although no mention was told China Daily a year later.31 Coal consumption, however, is made of energy security risks.39 expected to draw from 70 percent of total energy consumption Over the course of 2010, the nation reportedly consumed in 2009 to 63 percent in 2015, according to the National Ener- 440 million tons of oil, 200 million tons of which were import- gy Administration.32 ed.40 Despite international fashion, China’s use of biofuels can be “Some analysts expect China to overtake the United States expected to be much more sparing than other nations, as Chi- as the world’s biggest crude oil importer as soon as 2017.”41 na’s arable land and food supply demands leave little surplus Similarly, it was reported that “China bought 42.5 billion to—literally—burn. cubic meters (bcm) of gas from overseas [in 2012]. That was up “Chinese agricultural products will continue to increase more than 30 percent compared with 2011 and a nearly 10-fold yields and efficiency, but the lack of water and arable land will increase from 2007.”41 limit China’s future in grain output,” said Wang Xiaohui of the As part of an effort to blunt that reliance on foreign sources China Grains and Oils Information Center, a government think and increase domestic capacity, the government announced in tank. “With a rising population and increased standard of living September 2013 that it was set to have invested “80 billion yuan we must ask who will feed Chinese people in the future.”33 ($13.07 billion) in oil and gas exploration [over the course of It is been noted that due to these pressures, China’s adoption the year].”41 of biofuels will be contingent on so-called “second generation” Historically, total investment in the sector was reported by products which are derived from non-grain sources such as cel- Xinhua to have “risen from 19 billion yuan in 2002 to 67.3 bil- lulose.33 Accordingly, the Ministry of Finance and the State Ad- lion yuan in 2011.”41 ministration of Taxation co-issued the “Circular to Clarify the Li Shousheng, Vice-Chairman of the China Petroleum and Application Scope of Consumption Tax Exemption for Pure Chemical Industry Federation warns that “China’s strategic pe- Biodiesel Made from Waste Animal and Plant Oils” (Caishui troleum reserve is a key to addressing the issues of the national

* Support from the government may be too much: In December, 2010, U.S. filed a complaint to WTO against the Chinese goverment’s subsidizing trade in so-called environmentally friendly technology. This and other kinds of WTO disputes were discussed in Part I.

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资金（760亿美元），计划在2015年之前建成长达40000 国原油产量排名世界第五35，并保持世界第二大原油消 公里的输电线路。”30 国家电网公司也发布报告，称公 费国的地位36。 司计划在2015年之前完成超高压项目10个，2020年之前 完成15个，预算投资总额大约为1.6万亿元（大大超过 2008年12月，有关方面确认，中国正在建设国家战 路透社早前报道的数字）。29 略石油储备第二期工程（传闻储备大约1.7亿桶原油， 但是与容量达7亿桶原油的美国战略石油储备相比，仍 “绿色”发电技术也得到政府的支持【脚注】， 是小巫见大巫）。37 包括（国有）电网公司必须采购以可再生方式生产的 电力，且采购行为必须由国务院能源部门和国家电力 中国的能源消耗严重依赖进口，因此建立国家战略 管理机构监管。除国务院财政部外，其他有条件部门 石油储备显得更为重要。《中国日报》2010年1月份一 要“确保可再生能源发电在一定时期总发电量中所占 篇报道指出，“进口原油占国家原油总消耗量的比重达 比例。”20 到了52%”，而“进口比重超过50%则是国际公认的能源 安全警戒线。”38 除了国家对可再生能源发电的扶植，煤炭将继续 在中国发电行业扮演最重要的角色：亚洲开发银行官员 2010年5月，《中国日报》报道援引中国石化有关 Ashok Bhargava在2009年指出：“无论可再生能源或核 官员称，“中国在未来十年里对原油的需求，70%需要 能在发电行业占多少比重，煤炭将持续在发电原料中占 依赖进口。”但是该报道并未提及能源安全问题39。 主导地位。”7 据报道，2010年，中国消耗了4.4亿吨石油，其中2 中国工程院倪维斗院士在一年后告诉《中国日报》 亿吨是进口的。40 记者称，在未来四五十年内，煤炭发电将继续在中国 电力业占据统治地位31。然而，国家能源管理局表示， “有分析人士预计，到2017年，中国将超越美国成 煤电消耗量在能源消耗总量中的比重将会有所下降，到 为世界上最大的原油进口国。”41 2015年，这个比重将从2009年的70%下降到63% 。32 据报道，“中国2012年进口了425亿立方公尺 尽管国际上流行使用生物燃料，但是中国在这方面 （bcm）天然气，比2011年增长超过30%，比2007年增长 会比其他国家更加保守，因为中国的可耕地面积和食物 了近十倍。” 41 供给需求并没有留下很多盈余以供燃烧。 为了缓解中国能源的对外依存度，提高国内产能， 来自政府智囊团——中国国家粮油信息中心的王晓 中国政府在2013年宣布，将“在年内投资800亿元人民 辉表示，“中国的农产品将在产量和效率上继续增加， 币（相当于130.7亿美元）勘查油气资源。” 41 但是水资源和耕地的缺乏会限制中国未来粮食产量的突 破。随着中国人口的增加和生活标准的提高，我们必须 另据新华社报道，中国对油气勘查的投资总额逐 深思：将来谁来养活中国人？”33 年攀升，“2002年的投资总额为190亿元人民币，到了 2011年则上升至673亿元人民币。” 41 鉴于这些压力，中国对生物燃料的采用将会根据所 谓“第二代”产品而定，即以非粮作物为主要原料，例 中国石油和化学工业联合会副会长李寿生指出，“ 如纤维素。33因此，中国财政部和国家税务总局共同发 在‘十二五’规划期间，中国的石油战略储备是解决国 布《财政部国家税务局关于对利用废弃的动植物油生产 民经济和能源效率问题的关键所在。能源的供给和需求 纯生物柴油免征消费税的通知》（财税[2010]46号）。 存在庞大的差距。假如发生紧急情况，能源紧缺将可能 该通知的出台，有望鼓励合法生产生物柴油，并防止餐 成为非常突出的问题。”40 饮业废油的非法“回收”。2010年，有报道称，中国每 年有200-300万吨地沟油重回餐桌，严重危害国家的食 中国石油化工集团董事长傅成玉在近期的讲话中向 品安全和公共卫生。34 石油行业发出警告，认为“中国必须开发除石油之外的 其他国内资源，比如煤炭资源，从而抑制原油进口日益 由于石油对于中国发展的重要性，以及因越来越多 增长的势头。2011年中国原油进口量达到2.54亿吨，比 消费者购车而必然增加的能源消耗量，石油问题比生物 上年增长6%。”42 燃料问题更为迫切和严峻。根据新华社消息，2008年中

脚注：政府给予的支持也许已经太多了：2010年12月，美国就中国政府补贴“环保”技术贸易向世界贸易组织（WTO）提出投诉。第一部分 讨论了此类争端以及其他世贸组织争端

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economy and energy sufficiency during the 12th Five-Year Plan Another PetroChina partner found itself in a similar pre- period. There is a huge gap between the supply and demand for dicament toward the end of 2013: a $6.4 billion gas project energy. Energy shortage could become a very prominent prob- being built by Chevron and PetroChina was reported to have lem if an emergency occurs.”40 been delayed on more than one occasion over disputes about More recently, China Petrochemical Corporation Chair- the technical methods to be used in developing “tricky fields.” man Fu Chengyu warned that “China must embrace domestic The project, Chevron’s largest in China, was initially expected resources besides oil, such as coal, in a bid to curtail rising crude by PetroChina to begin operations in 2010. Four years later, it imports, which hit about 254 million tons in 2011, up 6% from has yet to have had a “first gas” date announced.46 a year earlier.”42 Common delays in project openings contrast with concerns According to Mr. Fu, “China [will] require 600 million tons about overcapacity. In recent years China Daily had indicated of crude annually by 2020” if demand continues at its current that such overcapacity in the petrochemical industry would trajectory and “China will really threaten the world.”42 continue to cause difficulties, and noted that fluctuating oil Unsurprisingly, however, oil continues to flow and the na- costs on the world market have led the government to adjust tion’s refining capability has grown apace. A Sinopec report in- domestic costs as fast as 4 percent over 22 consecutive days.47 dicated that “Plants in China may be able to refine 750 million Between the adoption of this pricing mechanism in 2009 and metric tons of crude oil annually by the end of 2015, compared October 2011, authorities adjusted fuel prices 16 times, with 10 with an estimated 507.5 million tons by the end of [2010].”39 of those adjustments being increases.48 Similarly, the report noted that “The share of foreign partic- An NDRC official also notes that the pricing adjustment ipation in China’s domestic refining capacity may rise to 31.5 mechanism can be used to ease inflationary pressure; the same million tons annually, or 4.2 percent of the nation’s total, by official furthermore indicated that a “more market-oriented” 2015, from the current 10.5 million tons.”39 mechanism (to address the lack of transparency and other issues The first foreign-Chinese petrochemical joint venture went with the current system) is under study.48 into operation in Fujian Province in November 2009. It is half- At the time of writing, the NRDC had raised49 and low- owned by Sinopec and the Fujian provincial government, and ered50 fuel prices four times each over the course of 2012, with half owned by Exxon Mobil and Saudi Aramco, who hold 25 the last rate cut following two successive increases which were, percent stakes each,43 and was praised by Lin Boqiang, head of according to one analyst, intended to “reduce refineries’ loss- the Center of China Energy Economics Research at Xiamen es and prevent fuel shortages, which is important to maintain University, as being “a rather wise choice to encourage oil-rich steady economic growth.”49 countries to make more investments in China,” which can help Projections from the China Petroleum and Chemical In- the PRC to secure (presumably strategic) oil reserves.43 dustry Federation projected a 5 percent slowing of apparent oil One place to put those reserves may be an upcoming consumption growth between 2011 and 2015 due to a slowing “200,000 cubic meter oil products storage facility” in Tianjin, of economic expansion and, to some degree, emission-reduc- the result of a joint venture between Royal Dutch Shell’s Chi- tion efforts.51 na-based business and the Tianjin State Farms Agribusiness In 2011 year-on-year growth in oil consumption was report- Group, noteworthy if only for a foreign company’s involvement ed to be at 6 percent.51 in the project. The $87 million facility is expected to begin op- More recently, independently-owned (but not for- eration in June 2013. 44 eign-owned) ‘teapot’ refineries—so-called because of their More recently, another project involving Royal Dutch small overall capacity—have been feuding with major state- Shell—this one a $13 billion refinery and petrochemical owned petrochemical companies over responsibility for a re- complex led by PetroChina and also including Qatar Petro- cent shortage in diesel fuel. According to Reuters, “State refin- leum—was put on hold. The official reason cited for the delay ers had said the teapots had reduced runs or shut down because was difficulty finding a suitable site to construct the complex; they were unwilling to put up with negative margins,” while informally the “need for a massive landfill project” costing up “Several independent refiners […] said the real problem was a to $1.6 billion and “resistance from local residents concerned lack of feedstock.” The fact that “independents largely refine about worsening pollution” were both flagged as influencing fuel oil as feedstock because crude oil imports are tightly con- the decision.45 trolled by the state-run refiners” would seem to lend credence The Zhejiang project, in which PetroChina is expected to to their complaints.52 hold a 51 percent stake while Shell and Qatar Petroleum would Accordingly, it was reported that several independent refin- each hold 24.5 percent, began in 2012 and targeted a refining ers were forced to “[sell] stakes to state refiners such as Petro- capacity of 400,000 barrels per day in addition to annual eth- China and China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC) in ylene output of 1.2 million tons.45 exchange for crude oil supplies.”52

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傅成玉说，“以目前的趋势来看，在2020年之前， 度达4%。47从2009年启用该成品油定价机制开始，一直 中国每年将需要6亿吨原油”，需求量之大将惊动世界。42 到2011年10月，中国政府调整成品油价格16次，其中10 次为上调。48 中国继续源源不断地进口石油，国家炼油能力亦快 速增长。来自中国石化的一份报告指出，“截至2010年 一位来自国家发展与改革委员会的官员指出，成品 年底，中国炼油厂每年提炼原油能力达5.075亿公吨， 油定价机制可以缓解通胀压力。这位官员还透露，“更 预计到2015年，这个数字可能提高到7.5亿公吨。”39 加以市场为导向”的定价机制（为解决当前定价机制缺 乏透明性和其他存在问题）正在调研之中。48 与此同时，这份报告也提出，“到2015年，外资进 口原油在中国国内的炼油能力将从目前的每年1050万吨 截至作者撰稿时，中国国家发改委在2012年内共八 提升到3150万吨，相当于中国炼油总量的4.2% 。”39 次调整成品油价格，四次上调43，四次下调44。在最近一 次下调之前，成品油价格已经连续两次上调。根据石油 2009年11月，中国第一家中外合资的石化企业在福 行业人士分析，本次油价下调目的在于“减少炼油企业亏 建投产。该项目一半由中国石化与福建省政府拥有，另 损，预防能源供应出现短缺，以维持经济稳定增长。”49 一半则属于埃克森美孚和沙特阿美，两家公司各持25％ 的股份43。该项目受到厦门大学“中国能源经济研究中 中国石油和化学工业联合会推测，由于经济增长的 心”主任林伯强的赞扬，认为这是一个“石油资源丰富 放缓，以及减排措施的一定影响，从2011年到2015年， 的国家来中国多做投资的明智选择”。此举有助中国确 中国石油表现消费量的增长将会放慢5% 。51 保（大概是战略）石油储备。43 据报道，2011年，中国石油消费量同比增长了6% 。51 即将在天津建造的“20万立方米油品储运库”将会 成为中国战略石油储备库之一。该储运库由荷兰壳牌石 最近，大型国有化工企业把近期出现的柴油荒归咎 油公司在华企业和天津农垦集团总公司合资投建，并因 于独立炼油厂（非外资企业）。因为规模较小，独立炼 为有外资涉足而引起广泛关注。该项目总投资8700万美 油厂又被称为“茶壶”炼油厂。根据路透社的报道，“ 元，预计2013年6月建成投产。44 国有炼油厂曾经表示，小炼油厂因为无法忍受负利润 率，已经减少或关闭作业”，然而“一些炼油厂则表 最近，中国石油天然气集团公司、卡塔尔石油国 示，真正的问题是缺少原料供给。”事实上，“由于原 际公司及荷兰皇家壳牌有限公司等三方联合打造、总投 油进口由国有炼油厂紧紧控制，独立炼油厂多数以燃料 资达到130亿美元的炼化一体化工厂计划已被搁置。官 作为原料供给”。由此看来，独立炼油厂的抱怨似乎更 方解释的理由是难以找到合适的工程建设用地；据悉， 有说服力。52 导致项目延期的原因有二，一是“完成一个填海造地工 程，所需资金高达16亿美元”，二是“当地民众因为担 因此，该报道称，为了获得原油供应，部分独立炼 心加剧环境污染而抵制该项目”。45 油厂已经“向中国石油、中国海油等国有炼油厂让渡他 们的股权”。52 位于浙江省的该项目始于2012年，壳牌和卡塔尔国 际石油公司分别持有24.5%的股权，中国石油持有余下 上述情况似乎仅仅是中国企业之间的问题。一名外 51%的股权。预计项目建成后，可以每日炼油40万桶， 资石油高管说，“中国很多行业都在加紧国有化，我认 每年生产乙烯120万吨。45 为短期内中国不太可能开放石油市场。”52

中国石油的另一个合作伙伴在2013年年底也陷入了 事实上，“中国海洋石油总公司董事长王宜林提出 类似的困境：据报道，雪佛龙和中国石油合作建造的一个 了号称‘新跨越’的发展战略，预计到2020年实现年产 规模达64亿美元的天然气项目可能再度推迟，这主要是 量翻一番以上，达到每天260万桶。”53 因为双方在有关如何开发一极具技术难度的油田上存在分 歧。这是雪佛龙在中国市场的最大项目，其合作伙伴中国 事实也的确如此。2011年12月，中国国家发改委发 石油最初预计，首批天然气将在2010年输送。然而，四年 布新规定收紧外资在炼油领域的投资限制。新规定限制 之后，“首批天然气”的输送日期仍然未能确定。46 外商投资炼油厂的原油蒸馏日产量不得低于20万桶（此 前的规定日产量为16万桶）。此外，新规定还限制外商 虽然新项目频频遭遇延期，也有不少人担心产能过 投资炼油厂催化裂化及加氢氧化的年产量均不得低于150 剩问题。近年来，《中国日报》曾经指出，化工行业的 万吨。年连续重整装置扩能改造产能不得低于100万吨54 产能过剩将会继续导致困难局面。而国际油价的波动， 使中国政府在连续22个工作日内调整国内油价，变动幅 有意思的是，新规定提出“政府鼓励外资参与开发

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This situation appears an entirely domestic one, and the half the fiscal revenue of its home municipality, the company field is likely to remain a mostly “locals-only” game according was the recipient of a “virtually unprecedented offer of govern- to one foreign petro-executive: “Nationalization is gaining pace ment money to a non-state firm” totaling some 1.5 billion yuan in many sectors in China, I doubt China is heading for a liber- in order to resume operation.59 alized oil market any time soon.”52 Regardless of relative slowdown during 2008 and 2009 Indeed, “CNOOC aims to more than double its annual things began to look up in 2010, with recovery noted in down- output to 2.6 million barrels per day by 2020 under a strategy stream sectors.60 A KPMG survey showed similar downstream [Chairman Wang Yilin] dubs the company’s ‘New Leap For- growth as a result of an increased focus on domestic consump- ward.’” 53 tion.61 The report went on to identify four key issues it expects Indeed, in December 2011, new restrictions were issued on to influence the chemical industry’s outlook in coming years: foreign participation in refining, with the minimum capacity for crude oil distillation being raised to 200,000 barrels per day 1. Chinese government’s goal to shift the current produc- (up from 160,000 barrels per day), the minimum threshold for tion model towards a more balanced and resilient one, as investment in catalytic cracking capacity and hydrocracking ca- set out in the 12th Five-Year Plan; pacity both being set to 1.5 million tonnes per year and that 2. Both new and old mega-trends which include increased for continuous reforming capacity being set to 1 million tonnes internal demand in China, continuous urbanization, per year.54 shifts in value chains and environmental awareness; Interestingly, the one improvement for foreign enterprises 3. Enhanced economic and financial volatility in global in that round of market access adjustments was the result of markets; and “the government [encouraging] foreign investment in explora- 4. Market dynamics which can narrow the gap between local tion and development of unconventional oil resources includ- Chinese manufacturers and multinational players.61 ing shale oil, oil sands and heavy oil, and unconventional gas resources including shale gas and seabed gas hydrate through In late 2012, chemical purveyor BASF not only completed a joint ventures or cooperation deals with domestic companies.”54 $1.4 billion petrochemical joint-venture with China Petroleum Nonetheless, in 2012 foreign enterprises were excluded from and Chemical Corporation (also known as Sinopec) in Nan- the first shale gas tender that year, “despite a need for overseas jing62, but also “inaugurated” an unsubtly-named “innovation technology to help exploit massive reserves of gas trapped with- campus” in Shanghai—the company’s first such facility in Asia in shale rock formations in the world’s top energy user.”55 The Pacific, according toChina Daily.63 Financial Times later reported that foreign-funded joint ven- In addition to KPMG’s positive outlook and foreign parties’ tures were permitted to bid in a second round later that year.56 increased participation in the sector, here has also been an in- While energy-related chemicals saw a decline in production crease in ‘NIMBY’, or “Not In My Backyard” protests by ordi- and consumption as a result of the global economic slowdown, nary Chinese citizens against industrial projects; in several cas- it appeared to be non-energy related chemicals that were hard- es, the source of locals’ ire has been a chemical facility planned est hit, and in the face of strong historical growth and optimism to produce paraxylene (PX). about future progress—it was noted in 2005 by the Royal Soci- In late 2012 protests against one such planned expansion by ety of Chemistry’s monthly journal that “demand for chemicals China [Sinopec] in Ningbo led to “a spokesman for the Ningbo in China expected to double between 2002 and 2015.”57 government [saying] in a statement […] that there would be no While the May 12, 2008 earthquake in Sichuan caused mas- further work done on the massive project […] pending further sive disruption in transportation links as well as manufacturing ‘scientific debate.’”64 Sinopec is a publicly-traded subsidiary of the operations (although the concentration of chemical manufac- state-owned China Petroleum Corporation. turers in affected areas was reportedly not as high as in oth- Although the facility’s expansion would appear to have been er regions)58, a larger concern for the sector turned out to be halted—at least temporarily—by the local citizenry’s discon- downstream users of chemical products—while the brunt of the tent, Reuters reported that the $8.8 billion project will likely initial effects of the global economic slowdown in China was proceed “once the public furor dies down”, and that public con- borne primarily by exporters, many providers of raw materials cern might simply lead to the project being renamed in order to faced significant difficulties as production slowed and custom- “downplay or disguise [it].”64 ers stopped ordering. Often singled out, for example, were pro- Similar demonstrations in Qidong (near Shanghai), Dalian, ducers of polyester.59 Xiamen in 2012, 2011 and 2007, respectively, also delayed or Exemplary of this difficulty was the case of Zhejiang Hual- deflected industrial projects due to concerns over hazardous ian Sunshine Petro-Chemical, which was deemed, much as chemicals.64 banks in the U.S. were, ‘too big to fail’. Accounting for nearly Seemingly in response to these surprisingly effective cam-

136 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

中国国内的非常规油气资源，允许外国投资者与中国公 4.市场动力，可以缩小中国本土制造商和国际 司形成合资企业，进行如页岩油、油砂、重油、页岩气 商业人士之间的差距。61 和海底天然水合物等非常规油气资源的勘探和开发”。54 2012年底，德国巴斯夫（BASF）化工集团与中国石 对于外国企业来说，这是本次外商投资产业调整带来的 油化工股份有限公司（即“中国石化”）在南京合作投 一大利好消息。 资14亿美元的合资企业竣工投产。62除此之外，巴斯夫 化工集团还在上海“成立”一个“创新园”—据《中国 然而，中国首轮页岩气探矿权招标却把外资企业排 日报》报道，这是该集团在亚太地区首个创新园区。63 除在外，“虽然中国这个世界能源消费国需要借助外国 技术，才能开采储藏在页岩层中的大量天然气。55”不 毕马威会计师事务所对石油行业前景保持乐观，外 过，《金融时报》随后报道称，第二轮页岩气探矿权招 资参与度也有所提升。除此之外，数量持续上升的，还 标允许中外合资企业投标。56 有“避邻运动”（NIMBY）。所谓“避邻运动”，是中 国普通市民反对大型工业项目的抗议行动。在多起“避 随着世界经济放缓的影响，用于发电的化学品在产 邻运动”中，当地民众愤怒的来源，是生产PX（对二甲 量和消费上均有所下降，但是，并且非能源相关的化学 苯）的化工设施。 品似乎遭到的冲击最大，面对着强劲的历史性增长和对 未来发展的乐观预期——2005年，《英国皇家化学学会 2012年底，宁波市爆发反对中石化扩建PX项目的 会刊》评论道，“2015年中国的化学品需求将会比2002 抗议活动，最后当地政府发言人不得不公开发表声明表 年翻一番”。57 示“……炼化一体化项目前期工作停止推进……再作科 学论证。”64中石化是国有企业中国石化集团旗下的上 “5•12”四川大地震对交通线路和生产经营带来极 市公司中国石油化工股份有限公司。 大的破坏（尽管在地震灾区的化学品工厂并不如其他地 区集中）58。然而，一个更严重的问题给上游化学品供 由于当地民众的不满，中石化的PX扩建项目似乎 应商敲起了警钟——虽然全球经济危机对中国的最初冲 已经叫停—至少目前看来如此，但是路透社报道称，“ 击主要集中在出口行业，但是随着产量下降和订购取 民众的愤怒情绪得到缓和后，这个投资88亿美元的项目 消，很多原材料供应商也面临着前所未有的困难，比如 将会继续进行”，而民众的抗议可能只会令项目改头换 聚酯制造商。59 面，以“淡化或者掩盖”该项目污染环境的事实。64

关于供应商所面临的困难，可以浙江华联三鑫石化 因为担心有害化学物质污染环境，启东（临近上海 有限公司为例。这家公司就像美国的银行一样，“规模 市）、大连、厦门民众分别在2012、2011、2007年发生 太大而不能倒闭”，所上缴的税款几乎占当地政府财政 过类似的抗议活动，也延迟或改变了当地大型化工项目 收入的半壁江山。为了让其继续经营，公司获得了“政 的建设计划。64 府对非国有企业前所未有的资金援助”，资金总额达到 15亿元。59 令人意外的是，地方民众的“避邻运动”似乎得 到了预期的结果。中国国家环保部部长周生贤曾在公 虽然2008年和2009年的经济相对放缓，但是2010年 开场合针对“避邻运动”发表讲话，指出“对可能造 形势出现好转，下游行业开始复苏60。毕马威会计事务 成重大环境影响的大型项目决策，政府将会增加透明度 所的一份调查也显示类似的结果，由于政府坚持拉动国 和群众参与度”，而且“环保部门将积极配合有关牵头 内需求，下游行业出现增长61。这份调查报告同时指出 部门，（以确保对所有重大建设项目）做好环境风险评 了将会影响化学行业前景的四个关键因素： 估。”65

1.中国政府设立经济转型的目标，如“十二 周部长关注此类事件并非偶然；中国环境科学学会 五”规划所述，建立更加均衡、更有活力的经 副理事长杨朝飞在2012年初指出，近年来，环境“群体 济模式； 性事件”一直保持年均29%的增速。65

2.新旧大趋势的融合，包括中国日趋增长的国 除了民众监督之外，地方政府的项目决策也要接受 内需求、持续的城市化进程、升级价值链和增 来自省级、中央级领导层的严格审查。这对环境保护可 强环保意识等； 能会产生积极作用。至于对外资是否有重大影响，或者 是否更容易竞争大型化工能源项目，我们将拭目以待。 3.全球经济和金融市场的不确定性增强；

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paigns by local citizenry, Environmental Protection Minister Over the course of 2009, six types of fees for road mainte- Zhou Shengxian went on the record as saying that, “The govern- nance and management were abolished and revenue from fuel ment will increase transparency and public involvement in de- consumption tax was reported to exceed 355 billion yuan.69 cisions regarding major projects with a potential environmental In a notable move in mid-December 2015, the Nation- impact” and that “his ministry will make concerted efforts with al Development and Reform Commission announced that, other government agencies to ensure that the requirement [for despite the drop in international oil crude prices, they would all large projects to undergo stringent risk assessments] is fully be suspending the downward price adjustment of domestic honored.”65 refined oil products in an effort to combat air pollution. In a Minister Zhou’s attention is unsurprising; China Society for statement issued by Xinhua, the NDRC said: “Giving full play Environmental Sciences’ Yang Zhaofei indicated earlier in 2012 to the leverage effect of refined oil prices is an important way that “the number of environmental ‘mass protests’ [had] been to promote energy conservation and tackle air pollution.” The growing by 29 percent annually in recent years.”65 mechanism, which took effect in March 2013, was instituted Increased scrutiny from both the public as well as municipal to reflect the corresponding adjustment in the price of refined authorities’ provincial- and central-level masters will likely have oil products when international crude oil prices translate into positive effects for the environment. Whether this scrutiny has a change of more than RMB 50 per ton for gasoline and diesel any substantive effect on foreign investment or the relative ease prices within a period of 10 working days. With auto emissions of completing large-scale chemical and energy projects will be being one of the major reasons for pollution, NDRC has ex- seen in coming years. pressed its commitment to maintain steady domestic prices for refined products so that less oil will be consumed, leading to an improvement in environment and air quality.74 Notable Policy Activity Resource Tax Pilot and Expansion Fuel Tax Increases In July 2010, the NRDC indicated that it would expand Perhaps China Daily said it best: ‘You pay as you fill up the the resource tax pilot program introduced a month prior in the tank. In other words, the more you drive, the more it costs you Xinjiang Uighur autonomous region to “all 12 of the western – and the planet. This is a simple market rule but it has taken provinces and autonomous regions.”70 This program was later nearly two decades for the government to pick a “proper time” reported to be planned to be put into effect nationwide by No- to implement it.’66 vember 1, 2011.71 The announcement of the reform of fuel taxation, and the This tax, which will reportedly be based on price of com- attendant price cuts, were a welcome change to the environ- modities rather than their volume, will have a benchmark rate ment upon their announcement in late December of 2008. of 5 percent and will vary by item (including oil, natural gas, While tax rates on gasoline, diesel, naphtha, solvents, lubri- coal and water). cants and jet kerosene on January 1, 2009 increased by nearly Furthermore, the list of taxable resources was widened from seven- to eight-times their former amounts, the changes were its original scope to include rare earths, salts and metals.71 accompanied by price cuts of between 14 percent (for gasoline) A China Daily-quoted analyst suggests that the new tax was and 32 percent (for jet kerosene). Facilitated by artificially-high “definitely [benefiting] the nation’s plans for sustainable growth prices (relative to the market) preceding the announcement, the by discouraging the exploitation of resources,” and that “it will restructuring—aimed to allow fuel prices in China to fluctuate also help to solve the developmental imbalances in different re- more in line with the going rate on the global market and to gions by boosting local fiscal revenues.”70 discourage conspicuous consumption—aimed to result in bet- Another researcher later told Reuters that the new tax sys- ter efficiency in the long term, more organic control over con- tem “would shift profits from companies to governments in sumption in general, and a more equitable distribution of tax poorer provinces.”71 burden among users.67 The historically tight control of fuel pricing was by many Cleaner Gasoline Production parties attributed to a preference for maintaining social stability In September 2013 it was reported that Sinopec would be- over wasteful consumption.68 gin producing cleaner gasoline ahead of the January 2014 reg- The timing alluded to byChina Daily above is often attribut- ulatory deadline enforcing a new cleanliness standard named ed to the large discrepancy between extremely low international “National IV.”72 crude oil prices at the end of 2008 and the artificially-inflated The new standard, which was announced in 2011 and is rate for fuel paid by Chinese consumers, which was, according described as similar to Europe’s “Euro IV,” puts a 50 parts-per- to Reuters, “roughly equivalent to $83.50 crude.”68 million upper limit on sulphur content in gasoline. Prior to im-

138 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

重要政策变动 将扩大至“12个西部省份和自治区”，70并最终在全国 范围内施行。据报道，资源税改革计划在2011年11月1 日之前在全国范围内施行。71 燃油税提高

也许《中国日报》说得最好：“你加油，你付钱。 据报道，资源税一改以前从量征收的方式，实行从 换言之，你开车越多，就让你以及地球付出越多。这是 价计征，计征基准为5%，征收额根据不同产品而有所调 简单的市场规则，但政府却花了近二十年才找到了一 整（包括石油、天然气、煤炭和水资源。） 个‘适当的时机’去贯彻它。” 66 此外，征税资源的范围有所扩大，从原来的基础上 71 2008年12月底，国家改革宣布燃油税和下调服务价 增加了稀土、盐类和金属。 格，对环境保护会产生积极意义。 《中国日报》援引一位分析师谈及资源税改革表 从2009年1月1日开始，对汽油、柴油、轻油、溶 示，“新的资源税征收方式降低了对资源开采的热度， 剂、润滑剂和航空煤油的税率比此前增加了将近七到八 必定有利于国家实现可持续增长的目标。同时，通过资 倍，但是，与税率改变同时进行的还有价格下调，降幅 源税改革增加地方财政收入，有利于解决地区发展不平 70 从14%（汽油）到32%（航空燃油）不等。在之前人为高 衡问题。” 价（相对于市场价）的推动下，这次调整目的在于让中 国油价波动更加贴近国际市场的油价，阻止挥霍消费。 另外一位研究员在接受路透社采访时说，新的征 长此以往，可以提高能源效率，对总体消费的调控更加 税系统将“在贫困省份的利润会从企业转移到政府手 71 简单，消费者的税收负担分配也更加公平。67 中。”

一直以来，多方都对油价实行严厉的控制，原因在 汽油产品更加环保 于比起挥霍性消费，他们更愿意选择维持社会稳定。68 据报道，2013年9月，中国石化开始生产供应更清 上述《中国日报》的报道间接提及的时机问题，源 洁的油品，早于国家规定的清洁能源标准执行期限。根 于在2008年年底，国际原油极端低价和中国消费者支付 据中国制定的油品升级时间表，2014年1月1日起，全国 72 的人为高价之间存在极大的差异。根据路透社的报道， 汽油升级至国IV标准。 中国消费者所支付的油价，“大约相当于83.50美元每 桶原油的价格” 。68 国IV标准在2011年正式发布，其汽油品质相当于 欧四标准，含硫量上限为50mg/kg。在国IV标准实施之 72 2009年，6个类型的公路养护和管理收费被取消， 前，汽油的含硫量上限为150mg/kg。 燃油消费税的收入则报超过3550亿元。69 国V标准汽油规定的含硫量上限为10mg/kg。该标 2015年12月中，国家发展与改革委员会做出了引人 准已经开始在中国的几个大城市实行，并有望在未来几 关注举动。虽然国际原油价格下调，但是发改委宣布暂 年内在全国通用。提高汽油品质标准的目的，是希望能 72 缓调整国内成品油价格，以此举帮助治理大气污染。在 够“清洁中国城市上空的雾霾空气。” 新华网发布的一份文件里，发改委指出，“充分发挥成 品油价格的杠杆作用，是促进节能减排，改善空气质量 2013年9月，中国国家发展和改革委员会（发改 的重要手段。”目前的成品油价格形成机制从2013年3 委）发布了一份关于中国油品质量升级价格政策的通 月开始生效。在新的形成机制下，国际市场原油价格出 知。其中，车用汽油、柴油质量标准升级至第四阶段（ 现波动，导致汽油和柴油涨价或降价超过每吨50元人民 含硫量上限为50mg/kg）每吨分别加价290和370元；从 币时，成品油价格将作出相应调整，两次价格调整的时 第四阶段升级至第五阶段（含硫量上限为10mg/kg）每 73 间间隔为10个工作日。机动车尾气是造成空气污染的主 吨分别加价170元和160元。 要原因之一，因此，发改委表示希望保持成品油价格稳 定，以便减少油品消费，改善环境和提高空气质量。74 国际清洁交通委员会（ICCT）指出，“发改委出 台新的价格政策，旨在鼓励和支持中国的炼油厂升级， 以满足国务院关于升级油品质量的指导方案。该方案于 资源税改革试点和推广 2013年年初提出，要求在2013年底之前在全国采用国IV 在新疆维吾尔族自治区试点的资源税费改革执行一 汽油标准，在2014年底之前采用国IV柴油标准，在2017 个月之后，国家发改委于2010年7月宣布，资源税改革 年底之前采用国V汽油、柴油标准。国际清洁交通委员会 认为，“国务院分别于2011年11月和2013年2月国务院下

139 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

plementation, the ceiling had been at 150 parts-per-million.72 by more than half since mid-last year due to a rising supply, the A “National V” standard mandating a maximum sulphur commission said traders will only be allowed to set prices at or content of 10 parts-per-million, is being rolled out in major cit- up to 20% below the benchmarks between November 20th this ies and will likely be adopted nationally in the coming years; year and the year after. 75 these limits are all expected to help “clear up the smoggy air of Chinese cities.”72 Focus on Clean Energy In September 2013, China’s National Development and Re- In early December 2015, the State Council announced their form Commission (NDRC) announced a new pricing policy goal to upgrade coal-fired power plants to cut pollutant dis- for China’s higher quality fuels. Per the NDRC, prices of China charge by 60% before 2020, saving around 100 million tons of IV gasoline and diesel (50ppm sulfur content) increased by 290 raw coal and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 180 million and 370 RMB/ton, respectively. The prices of China V gasoline tons annually. According to the statement released by the na- and diesel (10ppm) increased a further 170 and 160 RMB/ton, tion’s Cabinet, China aims by 2020 to shut down plants that fail respectively.73 to meet the energy-saving standard. By 2017, the nation aims to The International Council on Clean Transportation cut total coal consumption to below 65% of its total primary en- (ICCT) noted that “The new pricing changes were designed to ergy use as part of adjustments to its energy structure. The 2013 encourage and assist China’s refineries to meet the fuel quality Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan pledged to improvement timeline announced by the State Council earlier increase clean energy supply and cut coal consumption, a major this year. That timeline calls for nationwide supply of China IV source of air pollutant emissions.76 gasoline by the end of 2013, China IV diesel by the end of 2014, China is set to become a global nuclear energy player with and China V gasoline and diesel by the end of 2017.” The pric- its possession of 110 operational nuclear reactors by 2030. Pow- ing changes,’ the ICCT observed, “appear to be the first steps in er Construction Corp of China Ltd – also known as PowerChi- implementing State Council calls in October 2011 and Febru- na – said exports of indigenous technologies are to be a “key ary 2013 to use progressive fiscal policy to encourage the supply thrust” in the nation’s 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20), with the of higher quality fuels.”73 total scale of nuclear power generation from reactors both un- The ICCT stressed the significance of the NDRC announce- der construction and in operation in the country reaching 88 ment having included “an entire paragraph on the importance gigawatts by the end of 2020. Though it is only a draft proposal, of and mechanisms for ensuring compliance and enforcement the State-owned firm said it will “set the tone during the annual of the fuel quality” and noted that “combined with the price in- legislative and political advisory sessions in 2016.” Nuclear is set creases, this further underscores the Chinese government’s deep to be one of the major beneficiaries of China’s embarking on a commitment to ensuring the fuel quality timeline is met and clean energy drive to reduce emissions; at the same time, China commensurate air quality improvements are achieved.”73 is also looking to popularize its homegrown pressurized-wa- ter nuclear technology known as Hualong One both at home Natural Gas Price Liberalization and abroad. China National Nuclear Corp chairman Sun Qin In what is being referred to as “a major step” in the country’s said: “Third-generation nuclear technology meets the highest reform to marketize energy prices, Beijing in November 2015 requirements for global safety standards and has a competitive cut mainland China’s natural gas wholesale price by an average edge over others in terms of economic performance and reli- 28% and announced that it was giving up much of its control ability.” 77 over price setting. Benchmark non-residential gas prices at city A forecast from the China Association of Automobile gates, where ownership transfers from producers to distributors, Manufacturers (CAAM) sees China’s electric car market were slashed by RMB 0.7 per cubic meter starting on November surpassing the US to rank first worldwide, with car sales expected 20th. A statement from the National Reform and Development to reach 220,000 to 250,000 for 2015. Deputy secretary- Commission read: “Since the nation last [adjusted prices] on general Xu Yanhua of CAAM said worldwide electric car sales April 1st, gas demand and supply both in and outside the will hit 600,000 and the figure for the US market is estimated to nation has changed markedly…the nation has decided to take be 180,000: “Although China has achieved rapid development advantage of this opportunity to sharply lower non-residential of the industry,” Xu said at an industry conference, “quality prices and further push forward price liberalization.” 75 instead of quantity should be focused on for the sustainable Aside from cutting prices, the NDRC said it would allow development of the industry.” In particular, Xu emphasized buyers and sellers negotiate and set their prices from November vehicle safety and the careful examination/supervision of 20th next year, as long as they agree on prices no more than 20% battery quality. In part thanks to extensive government above or below the benchmark prices. Due to low international subsidies and tax cuts, China’s new energy vehicle sector has prices, with both crude oil and natural gas prices having fallen seen explosive growth over the past two years: According to data

140 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

发通知，要求采取积极的财政政策，鼓励供应更清洁的 正在推进开发新能源，核能行业将成为其中最大的受益 燃料，本次价格上调表明政府已经开始采取行动。”73 者之一。同时，中国也在寻找机会向国内外推广自主研 发的“华龙一号”压水堆核电技术。中国核工业集团公 国际清洁交通委员会特别强调，本次发改委下发的 司董事长孙勤说，“第三代核电技术符合当今世界最严 通知具有重要意义，因为该通知用了“整整一个段落阐述 格的安全标准，安全上有优势，经济上有竞争力，可以 升级油品质量的重要性和建立实施油品升级的机制”。此 全方位参与国际竞争。” 77 外，该机构表示，“从油价上调和发改委通知的措辞可以 看出，中国政府已经立下坚定的决心，要确保油品升级方 根据中国汽车工业协会（CAAM）预计，2015年中 案如期实施，并使空气质量也得到相应的提升。”73 国新能源汽车销量有望达到22万到25万辆，将超过美国 成为全球第一大新能源汽车市场。中国汽车工业协会副 天然气价格改革 秘书长许艳华透露，2015年全世界新能源汽车销售量 将会达到60万辆，美国市场估计达到18万辆。在一次行 2015年11月，中国政府决定下调内地天然气批发价 业会议上，许艳华讲话称，“虽然新能源汽车产业在中 格，平均下降幅度达到28%，并且宣布将尽早全面放开非 国发展形势喜人，销量全球领先，但是更要注重质量的 居民用气价格。这一举措被称为中国推进能源价格市场化 提升，才能实现行业可持续发展。”许副秘书长尤其强 改革的一个“重要步骤”。自11月20日起，非居民用天然 调汽车安全性、动力电池检验监督等问题。在政府众多 气基准门站价格每立方米降低0.7元人民币。天然气生产 补贴和减税政策推动下，中国的新能源汽车产业在过去 商在门站把天然气分销给经销商。国家发展与改革委员会 两年呈现出井喷式增长态势。根据中国汽车工业协会 的一份文件称，“自从国家今年4月1日调整起价格以来， 提供的数据，2015年前十个月，中国新能源汽车销量 国际国内天然气市场供求格局发生了深刻的变化……为 达到17,1145辆，比去年同期增长了290%。为了促进替 此，国家决定抓住当前的有利时机较大幅度降低非居民用 代能源汽车市场发展，中国很可能会在“十三五”规 气价格，并进一步推进天然气价格市场化改革。”75 划（2016-2020）期间加大力度完善相关基础设施和技 术：发展新能源汽车产业已被中国列为战略性任务，目 除了降低价格外，发改委还允许供需双方从明年11 的在于帮助促进提高电动车技术水平，控制环境污染， 月20日起协商决定具体门站价格，但是价格的上下浮动不 减少国家对进口石油的依赖。政府于上个月表示即将推 得超过基准价格的20%。自去年年中以来，由于国际石油 出充电站补贴政策，加快充电站建设，要求各大城市不 市场低迷，原油供应量上升，国际原油和天然气价格已经 得对新能源汽车实施限购，这些内容很可能作为工作重 下跌超过一半。因此，发改委规定，从今年11月20日起至 点被写入“十三五”规划里。78 明天11月20日，供需双方的定价可以低于基准门站价格， 但是下调幅度不得超过20%。75

聚焦清洁能源

2015年12月初，国务院宣布一份关于燃煤电厂升 级改造的计划，预计到2020年减少60%的污染物排放总 量，每年节约原煤1亿吨，减少二氧化碳排放1.8亿吨。 根据国务院公布的文件，到2020年，国家将坚决关停不 符合相关强制性标准要求的燃煤发电厂。中国也会对能 源领域实施结构调整，到2017年实现煤炭占能源消费总 量比重降低到65%以下。2013年颁布的《大气污染防治 行动计划》曾经承诺增加清洁能源供应，减少煤炭消费 总量，而后者正是空气污染物排放的主要来源。76

到2030年，中国将会成为全球核能强国，拥有110 座在运行核电站。中国电力建设集团有限公司（简称中 国电建）表示，推进本土自主核能技术走出去是“十三 五”规划（2016-2020）期间的重点任务，到2020年年 底中国已建成以及在建的核电装机容量总和将达到8800 万千瓦。虽然“十三五”规划目前还是一份草稿，但是 这家国有企业说“这份规划将会在2016年的全国人大和 全国政协会议上正式定调。”为了减少废气排放，中国

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provided by CAAM, the first ten months of the year saw sales Works Cited of electric cars surging 290% year-on-year to 171,145. China’s government is likely focusing on improving infrastructure and 1 “Non-Fossil Fuels to Take Up 11.4 Pct of China’s Energy Use by technology to promote sales of alternative-energy vehicles in its 2015: Former Energy Chief.” Xinhua. March 4, 2011. http://news. 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020): It has made the development xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-03/04/c_13761105. of EVs a strategic initiative as part of a broader push to lead in htm. the automotive technology, curb pollution and cut dependence on imported oil. The government said last month it will boost 2 “China Coal Miner Talks with Power Producers Fail.” TheAssociated subsidies to speed up the building of recharge stations and has Press. December 30, 2008. http://www.google.com/hostednews/ banned cities from imposing purchase restrictions on new- ap/article/ALeqM5gQ-J2-ZbUUuHhmypPnefyNXGG_ energy vehicles, indicating likely priorities to be later included kgD95C97S80. in the 13th Five-Year Plan. 78 3 Rujun Shen. “China Looks to Exports as Domestic Coal Demand Drops.” Reuters. December 29, 2008. http://www.reuters.com/ article/rbssEnergyNews/idUSSHA29429520081229.

4 David Winning. “China’s Coal Crisis.” TheWall Street Journal. Novermber 16, 2011. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001 424052748704312504575617810380509880.html. Accessed Novermber 17, 2011.

5 Zhao Tingting. “China’s Coal Imports Up 31% in 2010.” January 27, 2011. China Daily. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/usa/ business/2011-01/27/content_11934931.htm.

6 “NEA to Forge New Coal Production Base in Xinjiang.” January 26, 2011. China Daily. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2011- 01/26/content_11916785.htm.

7 Keith Bradsher. “China Outpaces U.S. in Cleaner Coal-Fired Plants.” TheNew York Times. May 10, 2009. http://www.nytimes. com/2009/05/11/world/asia/11coal.html.

8 “China soon to issue full plan to reduce carbon intensity.” Xinhua. July 29, 2011. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/business/2011- 07/29/c_131017373.htm.

9 James Melik. “China leads world in green energy investment.” BBC. September 15, 2011. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ business-14201939.

10 David Stanway. “China to cut coal use, shut polluters, in bid to clear the air.” Reuters. September 12, 2013. http://www. reuters.com/article/2013/09/12/us-china-coal-pollution- idUSBRE98B01N20130912.

11 Fayen Wong. “China’s smog threatens health of global coal projects.” Reuters. November 14, 2013. http://www.reuters.com/ article/2013/11/14/us-china-coal-idUSBRE9AD19L20131114. Accessed February 2, 2014.

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12 “An Overview of China’s Renewable Energy Market.” China 24 Liam Denning. “China Storms into Wind and Solar Power.” Briefing. June 16, 2011. http://www.china-briefing.com/ China Realtime Report. August 22, 2011. http://blogs.wsj.com/ news/2011/06/16/an-overview-of-chinas-renewable-energy- chinarealtime/2011/08/22/china-storms-into-wind-and-solar- market.html. power/.

13 Wan Zhihong. “Power Majors Form Nuclear Alliance” China 25 Winnie Zhu. “China Plans 13 Solar Power Plants in Western Daily. December 18, 2009. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ Region.” Bloomberg Businessweek. July 6, 2010. http://www. bizchina/2009-12/18/content_9197600.htm. businessweek.com/news/2010-07-06/china-plans-13-solar- power-plants-in-western-region.html. 14 Song Jingli. “China’s Demand for Aluminum May Grow Slowly in Next 20 Years.” China Daily. November 6, 2010. http://www. 26 “Solar Energy.” TheNew York Times. September 14, 2011. http:// chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-11/06/content_11511611. topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/energy-environment/ htm. solar-energy/index.html.

15 “World Nuclear Power Reactors & Uranium Requirements.” The 27 Max Blythe. “China’s New Five-Year Plan and Solar Power.” World Nuclear Association. January 1, 2012. http://www.world- Forbes. February 28. 2011. http://www.forbes.com/sites/ nuclear.org/info/reactors.html. etfchannel/2011/02/28/chinas-new-five-year-plan-and-solar- power/. 16 Matt Velker. “Construction of China’s 4G nuclear reactor to start soon.” China.org.cn. March 17, 2011.http://www.china.org.cn/ 28 Wang Zhihong. “State Grid Unveils Ultra-high-voltage Power Line china/2011-03/17/content_22166536_2.htm. Plans.” China Daily. August 13, 2010. http://usa.chinadaily.com. cn//2010-08/13/content_11150655.htm. 17 Xiao Wan. “Ten Nuclear Reactors to Use Top Technology.” China Daily. July 6, 2010. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/usa/2010- 29 “China to Break Ground on Second Ultra-high voltage Power 07/06/content_11020168.htm. Transmission Line.” Gov.cn. October 14, 2011. http://www.gov. cn/english/2011-10/14/content_1969728.htm. 18 “China to Build Inland Nuclear Power Stations” Xinhua. November 4, 2009. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-11/04/ 30 Jim Bai and Aizhu Chen. “China Top Grid Firm Says to Futher content_12386584.htm. Develop UHV Tech.” Reuters. January 28, 2011. http://af.reuters. com/article/energyOilNews/idAFTOE70R04O20110128. 19 Charlie Zhu. “Public Trust Crisis Threatens China’s Nuclear Power Ambitions.” Reuters. July 18, 2013. http://www. 31 “China Expected to Have World’s Largest Clean Coal Conversion reuters.com/article/2013/07/18/us-china-nuclear-protests- Industry by 2020.” Xinhua. September 18, 2010. http://news. idUSBRE96H1BT20130718. xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-09/18/c_13518712.htm.

20 “Grids Pushed to Tap Clean Power” China Daily/Xinhua. December 32 “China’s Reliance on Coal to Drop 7% by 2015.” China Daily. July 21, 28, 2009. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2009-12/28/ 2010. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/imqq/bizchina/2010-07/21/ content_9235419.htm. content_11029141.htm.

21 Dexter Roberts. “China Quake Batters Energy Industry.” 33 Travis Hochard. “A World of Potential.” Ethanol Producer Businessweek. May 19, 2008. http://www.businessweek.com/ Magazine. January 2009. http://ethanolproducer.com/article. globalbiz/content/may2008/gb20080519_901796.htm. jsp?article_id=5156&q=&page=all.

22 David Stanway. “Analysis: China’s Push for More Hydropower 34 “China Clarifies Consumption Tax Exemption for Biodiesel Tests Limits.” Reuters. July 12, 2011. http://www. Production.” China Briefing. July 4, 2011. http://www.china- reuters.com/article/2011/07/12/us-china-hydropower- briefing.com/news/2011/07/04/china-clarifies-consumption- idUSTRE76B1LA20110712. tax-exemption-for-biodiesel-production.html.

23 “China’s New Energy and Renewable Energy Boom in Recent 35 “China to Produce 189 mln Tones of Crude Oil This Year.” Years” China Daily via Xinhua. October 2, 2009. http://news. Xinhua. December 28, 2008. http://news.xinhuanet.com/ xinhuanet.com/english/2009-10/02/content_12173550.htm. english/2008-12/28/content_10569701.htm.

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36 “China Energy Data, Statistics and Analysis.” Energy Information 48 Lan Lan. “Fuel-Price Drop Good News.” China Daily. October Administration, The United States Department of Energy. 9, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2011-10/09/ November 2010. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/China/ content_13853620.htm. Background.html. 48 Du Juan. “NDRC Raises Fuel Prices.” China Daily. September 37 Jim Bai. “China to Boost Oil Stockpiling Amid Price Slump.” 11, 2012. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-09/11/ Reuters. December 29, 2008. http://uk.reuters.com/article/ content_15748829.htm. oilRpt/idUKPEK29764020081229. 50 “China to Cut Fuel Prices Starting Friday.” Xinhua. November 38 Wang Qian. “Oil Imports Hit Alarming Level in China: Study.” 15, 2012. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012-11/15/ China Daily. January 14, 2010. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ content_15934040.htm . bizchina/2010-01/14/content_9317926.htm. 51 Zhou Yan. “Growth in Oil Use to Slow in Tandem with Economy.” 39 “China’s Refining Capacity May Rise 50%, Sinopec Says.” China Daily. August 12, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ China Daily. May 25, 2010. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ usa/business/2011-08/12/content_13099816.htm. bizchina/2010-05/25/content_9890521.htm. 52 Jim Bai and Chen Aizhu. “China’s “teapot” Refiners Say Able 40 Wang Yu and Li Xiang. “Construction of Petroleum Reserves to Ease Diesel Shortages.” Reuters. November 25, 2011. Proceeding.” China Daily. July 23, 2011. http://www.chinadaily. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/25/china-oil- com.cn/cndy/2011-07/23/content_12966801.htm. idUSL4E7MO14920111125.

41 “China to Invest 80 Billion Yuan in Oil and Gas Exploration 53 Charlie Zhu and Bill Powell. “Special Report: The Education of This Year.”Reuters . September 15, 2013. http://www. China’s Oil Company.” October 6, 2013. http://www.reuters. reuters.com/article/2013/09/15/us-china-energy- com/article/2013/10/07/us-cnooc-nexen-specialreport- idUSBRE98E03S20130915. idUSBRE99600720131007.

42 Brian Spegele. “Sinopec Chairman: China Needs to Change Ener- 54 Jim Bai and Chen Aizhu. “China Revamps Energy Mkt gy Strategy.” China Realtime Report. November 13, 2012. http:// Access for Foreign Investors.” Reuters. December 29, 2011. blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2012/11/13/sinopec-chairman-chi- http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/29/china-energy- na-needs-to-change-energy-strategy/. Accessed November 27, 2012. idUSL3E7NT2RP20111229. 43 “China’s 1st Sino-foreign refining, petrochemical JV goes into operation.” Xinhua. November 11, 2009. http://news.xinhuanet. 55 Jim Bai and Ken Wills. “China to Exclude Foreign Firms com/english/2009-11/11/content_12435807.htm. in Shale Gas Tender.” Reuters. May 18, 2012. http://www. reuters.com/article/2012/05/18/china-shale-tender- 44 “Shell’s China venture to Build Tianjin Fuel Storage – idUSL4E8GI2RY20120518. Agency.” Reuters. January 9, 2012. http://www.reuters.com/ article/2012/01/09/shell-idUSL3E8C95I520120109. 56 Leslie Hook. “China Opens Shale Gas to Foreign Bidders.” Financial Times. September 10, 2012. http://www.ft.com/ 45 Chen Aizhu. “PetroChina, Shell’s $13 billion refinery stalls cms/s/0/fe651540-fb35-11e1-87ae-00144feabdc0.html. on land issue: sources.” Reuters. September 11, 2013. http:// www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/11/us-china-refinery- 57 Vikki Allen. “Chinese Chemical Industry: Friend or Foe?”. Chemistry idUSBRE98A0G220130911. World. April, 2005. http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/ Issues/2005/April/Chinesechemicalindustry.asp. 46 Chen Aizhu. “Chevron’s $6.4 Billion China Gas Project Pushed Back Again: Sources.” Reuters. December 6, 2013. http:// 58 Jia Hepeng. “China Quake Hits Chemical Industry”. Chemistry www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/06/us-chevron-cnpc-gas- World. May 16, 2008. http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/ idUSBRE9B507520131206. News/2008/May/16050802.asp.

47 “Challenging Conditions May Continue, Says Sinopec.” China 59 Fang Yan. “Pain of China Export Slump Moves Along Supply Daily. December 25, 2009.http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ Chain.” Reuters. December 29, 2008. http://www.reuters.com/ bizchina/2009-12/25/content_9228303.htm. article/reutersEdge/idUSTRE4BS0AC20081229.

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60 Wan Zhihong. “Bright Prospects Ahead for Petrochemical Firms.” 72 “China’s Sinopec to Produce Cleaner Gasoline from October.” Reuters. China Daily. Janaury 29, 2010. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ September 6, 2013. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/06/ cndy/2010-01/29/content_9395317.htm. us-sinopec-gasoline-idUSBRE9850E820130906.

61 Peter Fung, Norbert Meyring and Miguel Montoya. China’s 73 Vance Wagner. “Contextualizing China’s Fuel Pricing Chemical Industry: The New Forces Driving Change. Announcement.” From The Blogs, The International Council on KPMG. September 2011. http://www.kpmg.com/CN/en/ Clean Transportation. September 30, 2013. IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/China- Chemical-Industry-201109.pdf. Accessed November 4, 2011. 74 Xinhua. “Fuel Prices Stay Put to Combat Pollution.” Shanghai Dai- ly. December 16, 2015. http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/ 62 “BASF Completes $1.4b Petrochemical Site in China.” energy/Fuel-prices-stay-put-to-combat-pollution/shdaily.shtml Xinhua. January 11, 2012. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ business/2012-01/11/content_14421688.htm. 75 Eric Ng. “Beijing’s Record Natural Gas Price Cut Deals Mixed Effects for Industry Players.”South China Morning Post. Novem- 63 Chen Qide. “BASF Unveils Innovation Campus in Shanghai.” ber 19, 2015. http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/arti- China Daily. November 6, 2012. http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/ cle/1880383/chinas-record-natural-gas-price-cut-deals-mixed-ef- business/2012-11/06/content_15882897.htm. fects-industry

64 John Rutwich and David Stanway. “China Struggles for Solution to 76 Xinhua. “China To Cut Pollutant Discharge at Power Plants by Growing NIMBY Movement.” Reuters. November 1, 2012. http:// 60%.” China Daily. December 2, 2015. http://www.chinadaily. www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/01/us-china-environment- com.cn/china/2015-12/02/content_22611459.htm idUSBRE8A01L020121101. 77 Lyu Chang. “China To Become Global Nuclear Energy Player with 65 Zhao Huanxin. “Projects Face Greater Checks.” China Daily. 110 Reactors.” China Daily. December 4, 2015. http://www.chi- November 13, 2012. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2012- nadaily.com.cn/business/2015-12/04/content_22624734.htm 11/13/content_15920200.htm. 78 Xinhua. “China To Become World’s No. 1 Electric Car Market. “ 66 Fu Jing. “Fuel Tax Reform an Energy Milestone.” China China Daily. December 7, 2015. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ Daily. December 29, 2008. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ business/motoring/2015-12/07/content_22643336.htm bizchina/2008-12/29/content_7349014.htm.

67 “China Unveils Fuel Tax Hikes on More Oil Products.” Xinhua. December 19, 2008. http://news.xinhuanet.com/ english/2008-12/19/content_10529044.htm.

68 Eadie Chen and Tom Miles. “China cuts fuel prices for first time in two years.” Reuters. December 19, 2008. http://uk.reuters.com/ article/latestCrisis/idUKSP380237.

69 “China to Continue Oil Product Pricing Reform” Xinhua. December 24, 2009. http://cs.xinhuanet.com/english/ finance/200912/t20091224_2301415.htm.

70 Wang Xiaotian. “Resource Tax to be Expanded Nationwide.” China Daily. January 26, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ cndy/2011-01/26/content_11916809.htm.

71 Judy Hua and Chen Aizhu. “RPT-UPDATE 2-China Resource Tax Goes National; Adds Coal, Rare Earths.” Reuters. October 10,2011.http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/11/china- resources-tax-idUSL3E7LB04620111011.

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2.3 Machinery and Electrical Equipment

inhua reports that between 2001 and 2010, remains small,” and that “[The PRC] still relies on imports of the total output value of the machinery industry increased much high-end equipment.”7 fromX 1.44 trillion to 14.38 trillion yuan, a sustained growth rate This perceived deficiency resulted in “huge incentives for of 25 percent. In the same period, the number of enterprises in innovation and R&D” and the encouragement that “as the the industry grew from 34,000 holding 2 trillion yuan in assets country expands infrastructure construction, machinery firms to 107,000 holding 10 trillion in assets in 2010.1 should take the opportunity to upgrade their technology and According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China’s raise their competitiveness.” It was also mentioned that the gov- China Statistical Yearbook 2009, the manufacture of machin- ernment would be actively integrating research organizations ery and electrical equipment* by state-owned enterprises in into the industrial product development cycle and adjusting 2008 resulted in an aggregate 14.8 trillion yuan in revenue from tax policy to “encourage machinery exports and imports of key principal business activities across 120,106 enterprises above a technologies and machinery parts.”8 designated size,** including state-owned, privately-held domes- Following up on these changes, Chairman of the Nation- tic and foreign-invested firms.2 al Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative The 59,244 Foreign-invested*** enterprises included in the Conference Jia Qinglin remarked that the machinery industry data alone accounted for 4 trillion of the sectors’ total revenue ought to “raise the quality and efficiency of the industry, accel- while employing 7.1 million of the total labor force of 26.0 mil- erate mergers and acquisitions to forge conglomerates, and en- lion individuals (approximately 27 percent of the total).2 hance the industry’s ability to withstand risks.”9 In early 2008, the Vice Director of the China Machinery Over the course of 2012 the Machinery business in China— Industry Federation (CMIF) described the strong growth of both in terms of production as well as consumption—saw fur- the machinery industry, saying that, “[We have] upgraded ther (relative) hardship as, according to analyst Zhang Cheng our products and strengthened the overall manufacturing in- with Changjiang Securities in Shanghai, “The Chinese machin- dustr y,” 3 and offering energy-saving and pollution reduction ery sector [was] experiencing a bottoming-out period.”10 equipment, infrastructure equipment and digitally-controlled That year, for example, “Japanese excavator maker Komatsu machine tools as examples of areas in which the domestic sector […] saw demand in China for construction and mining equip- has made great technological progress. ment falling 40 per cent [over] three months,” while “[Komat- By the end of that year, the PRC’s export volume of ma- su’s] Chinese rival Sany Heavy Industry […] reported a near-60 chinery and electrical equipment was the second-largest in the per cent slump in third quarter profits.”10 world; a year later it was the largest.4 Foreign-invested firms’ Similarly, by October of that year Caterpillar had “slashed its exports accounted for 69.4 percent of that year’s total (which 2012 forecast” twice due to sales in China that had “slowed in exports were worth approximately $494 billion). 5 the third quarter and had yet to improve.”10 While the machinery sector continued to grow, 2011 saw Hitachi Executive Vice President Toyoaki Nakamura expectations of a foreign trade deficit in the field attributed to echoed seemingly worldwide pessimism about the near-term the rapid growth of machinery imports according to CMIF market for machinery in China, opining that “we are starting to as including rising input costs, difficulties in financing and- in see quite a (negative) impact from China, quite suddenly on our creased labor costs. Nevertheless, total sales were predicted to earnings, especially on construction machinery and high func- expand by more than 10 percent.6 tional materials, areas where the immediate market conditions The same year, Chief Director Zhang Ji of the Ministry of are quickly reflected on results.”10 Commerce’s Department of Mechanical, Electronic and Hi- Still, there appeared widespread optimism about the Chi- Tech Industry noted that “the proportion of high-tech products nese government’s willingness and ability to enact further eco- in the country’s exports of machinery and electronic products nomic stimulus to aid the county’s sagging economy, and in

* The China“ Statistical Yearbook” includes six industrial sectors which we group under the title “machinery and electrical equipment”: “Manufacture of General Purpose Machinery”, “Manufacture of Special Purpose Machinery”, “Manufacture of Transport Equipment”, “Manufacture of Electrical Machinery and Equipment”, “Manufacture of Communication Equipment, Computers and Other Electronic Equipment” and “Manufacture of Measuring Instruments and Machinery for Cultural Activity and Office Work.” Figures from the “China Statistical Yearbook” quoted hereafter are aggregates of values from those six categories in the original publication. **Here, “above a designated size” is qualified as enterprises with annual revenue from principal business of greater than 5 million yuan. ***This category includes enterprises funded from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.

150 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

2.3 机械与电气设备业

据新华网报道，2001-2010年，中国机械工业总 励”，并鼓励说“由于国家扩大基础设施建设，机械企 产值从1.44万亿元增长到14.38万亿元，持续增长率达 业应该借此机会提升他们的技术和提高竞争力。”还提 25%。在同一时期内，从2001年中国机械工业企业数量 到，政府将积极融入研究机构调查工业产品开发周期并 34000家、资产总值2万亿元，发展到2010年企业数量 调整税收政策以“鼓励机械出口及关键技术和机械零部 107000家、资产总值10万亿元。1 件的进口。”8

根据中国国家统计局出版的《中国统计年鉴2009》 为了应对这些变化，全国政协主席贾庆林做出批 ，在2008年，机械与电气设备业【脚注1】创造的总收 示，指出机械工业应该“提高产业质量及运营效率，加 入达到14.8万亿元人民币，全国机械与电气设备业规模 快并购重组，打造行业巨头，提高企业抗风险能力。”9 以上【脚注2】企业有120106家，包括国有企业、国内 私营企业和外资企业。2 2012年间，中国机械工业的生产和消费均面临更加 严峻的形势。来自上海长江证券公司的证券分析师张成 在上述数据中，外资【脚注3】企业数量达到59244 （音）说，“中国机械行业正处于探底过程。”10 家，创造的收入达到4万亿元人民币。在全国2600万劳 动力中，外资企业雇用了710万（约占总数的27%）。2 比如说，“日本挖掘机生产商小松制作所……预计 中国今年第四季度对建筑和矿山设备的需求下降40%”， 2008年初，中国机械工业联合会副会长描述机械行 而“（小松）的中国竞争对手三一重工……公布第三季 业的强劲增长时说到，“我们已经升级产品，提高了机 利润下跌将近60%。”10 械制造业的整体水平”3。该副会长指出，在很多领域， 国内企业已经在技术上取得很大的进步，节能减排型设 2012年10月，全球最大的拖拉机和挖掘机制造商卡 备、基础设备和数控机床等领域就是很好的例子。 特彼勒公司“调降2012年预估”，是今年以来第二次调 整。该公司指出，第三季度公司在中国的销售速度“放 2008年年底，中国的机械与电气设备出口总额排名 缓，而且尚未出现改变迹象”。10 世界第二；2009年，中国成为机械与电气设备第一出口 大国。4其中外资企业的出口额占总量的69.4%（出口总 全球对中国近期机械工业市场普遍保持悲观态度， 值约为4940亿美元）5。 日立集团执行副总裁中村豊明（Toyoaki Nakamura）对此 也表示同样看法。他说:“我们开始看到来自中国市场 虽然机械行业持续增长，但是，由于机械产品进口 的（负面）影响，企业盈利突然下跌，尤其是对市场较 增速较快，2011年中国机械行业将会面临贸易逆差。根 为灵敏的建筑机械和高功能材料领域，市场环境的即时 据中国机械工业联合会，造成贸易逆差的其他原因还包 变动会马上反映到经营业绩上。”10 括投入成本上升、融资困难和劳动力成本上升等。尽管 如此，该行业总销售额预计增长将超过10% 。6 然而，对于中国政府是否愿意或者有能力制定经 济刺激方案重振中国疲软的经济，各界似乎充满乐观。 中国商务部机电和科技产业司司长张骥在同年指 中国政府的经济刺激方案通常把重心放在固定资产投资 出，“高科技产品占国家机械与电子产品出口的比重仍 上—这正是希望改变发展前景的机械制造商所需要的。 然较小”，所以“（中国）很多高端机械设备仍然需要 依赖进口。”7 2012年10月，三一重工总裁向文波在接受采访时 说，2013年将会是机械业的“黄金发展期”。卡特彼勒 针对上述不足，国家提供“创新和研发的巨大奖 公司也认为中国将在2013年扩大经济刺激方案。瑞士石

脚注1：我们把《中国统计年鉴》里的六个工业分类归为“机械与电气设备业”，包括“一般用途机械生产”，“特殊用途机械生产”，“交 通设备生产”，“电气机械和设备生产”，“通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备生产”，以及“计量设备、文化活动及办公机械生产”。 下文从《中国统计年鉴》引用的数据均为原文六种工业分类的数据总和。 脚注2：此处“规模以上”企业指的是主营业务年收入超过500万元人民币的企业。 脚注3：此处外资企业一类包括在香港、澳门、台湾地区成立的企业。

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China stimulus is usually heavy on fixed assets—just the thing 20 percent this year despite [the 10 percent surge following the to improve the outlook of machinery manufacturers. stimulus announcement].”11 In October 2012 Sany Heavy Industry’s president Xiang In the words of GK Dragonomics managing director Arthur Wenbo predicted a “golden age” of development in 2013, while Kroeber, “People had underestimated the impact of the slow- Caterpillar also predicted increased stimulus spending in China down on certain sectors, particularly construction machinery over the course of the coming year and both Swiss oil and gas [and that] if you are investing there it has been really painful, infrastructure supplier ABB and French firm Schneider report- the bottom has fallen out.”11 ed that orders from China for machinery had stabilized in late Supplementing domestic stimulus as an engine for machin- 2012. Notably, however, Schnieder’s finance chief cautioned ery production and imports, Chinese investment promotion that “We do not know when it will come. I’m certainly not authorities are also actively courting foreign investment that pointing to clear evidence that the recovery for China is for the carries with it technological capabilities; MOFCOM statistics beginning of 2013.”10 indicated that there were 1675 new foreign investment projects Roughly a week later, the National Development and Re- established over 2009.12 form Commission “announced approvals for projects that an- Mergers and Acquisitions are another potential source of alysts estimate total more than 1 trillion yuan ($157 billion), technology that can be used to cut national reliance on imports roughly a quarter of the total size of the massive stimulus for critical machinery, and the Central Government is said to package unleashed in response to the global financial crisis in be “pushing forward” such activities, presumably by making the 2008.”11 approval process or other regulatory requirements more stream- Perhaps significant was the timing of the announcement, lined.13 which was released “just before a deluge of Chinese econom- Machinery manufacturing, and especially heavy- and con- ic data due [two days later] that could confirm investors’ worst struction-related machinery manufacturing, appears to be more fears that a downswing in the world’s second-biggest economy geographically diversified in China than many other industries, has stretched into a seventh straight quarter” and scant weeks with major players in inland provinces, and as far north as Har- before the official departure of Messrs. Hu and Wen that had bin—compared with the east-and-southern-coast-first develop- been scheduled for November.11 ment model that has guided the growth of many other sectors. According to analysts speaking with Reuters, this likely sig- Opposite heavy machinery, consumer electronics also play nified a more pro-active approach to the economy than had an important role in China’s economy. Acer CEO Gianfranco previously been taken by Central government authorities in the Lanci was quoted by China Daily in December 2010 as pre- recent past.11 dicting that the mainland market would become the world’s Whatever the cause, many of the same companies who had largest within three years. The same article cited a projection by suffered earlier in 2012 appeared to enjoy immediate gains in research firm IDC that the market would grow “21 percent this stock price, with “Shanghai-listed Sany Heavy Industry, Shen- year from last year’s 54 million units.”14 zhen-listed Zoomlion and Taiyuan Heavy all surged 10 percent. This growth is not new. Laptop sales alone in China report- Japanese construction equipment makers also got a boost, with edly increased by nearly 35 percent year-on-year in 2008.15 In shares of Komatsu Ltd rising 6.6 percent in Tokyo and Hita- 2009, as subsidies for PCs under the “Appliances to the Coun- chi Construction Machinery Co Ltd up 4.7 percent.” Similarly tryside” program became active, rural sales of personal comput- “Caterpillar Inc, the world’s largest heavy equipment maker, ers (both desktop and portable models, presumably) surpassed rose 4.1 percent.”11 792,000 units between January and October16. Domestic man- Despite optimism riding on the back of the Central govern- ufacturers Lenovo, Haier, Founder and Tsinghua Tongfang to- ment’s announcement, the sector’s outlook is still somewhat less gether were attributed 97.7 percent of the total sales under the than bright. subsidy program,17 and according to an article in China Daily an According to Reuters, “Foreign and local machinery makers increase in the maximum price for a product to be accepted into in China, the world’s largest construction market, are struggling the program from 3,500 to 4,000 would further increase sales as the slowdown saps investment growth to 10-year lows. Fall- by giving the more affluent farmers opportunities to purchase ing profits have spurred firms to cut production or seek new higher-end models while still benefitting from the subsidy.16 clients.”11 Business-oriented technology companies such as Cisco, Ju- As a result, Caterpillar began to export Chinese-made ma- niper and IBM continue to face challenges in China: chinery to the Middle East and Africa, Hitachi “slashed pro- duction at its excavator-making plant in eastern China” and Beijing has long mistrusted foreign technology compa- “Shares in China heavyweight Sany Heavy Industry, whose sec- nies, and those concerns have been exacerbated since ond-quarter profit skidded 28 percent, are still down more than [whistleblower Edward] Snowden first revealed the ex-

152 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

油和天然气基础设施供应商ABB集团和法国施耐德电气 济衰退对某些行业的影响，尤其是建筑机械业。如果你 股份有限公司均表示，2012年底，中国机械行业的订单 投资建筑机械业，那真是相当痛苦的时期，现在机械业 已经保持稳定。然而，施耐德电力公司首席财务官却提 增速已经触底了。”11 出保守看法，他说，“我们并不知道经济何时复苏。从 目前情况来看，我也无法肯定中国经济会从2013年年初 除了利用经济刺激方案推动机械工业生产和进口 开始复苏。”10 外，中国投资促进机构也积极地寻找能带来先进技术的 外国投资；中国商务部的数据显示，2009年中国确定的 大约一周之后，中国国家发改委“宣布批准总投 外资项目总共有1675个。12 资额超过1万亿元人民币（1570亿美元）的基建投资项 目，相当于2008年经济刺激方案的四分之一。2008年， 兼并与收购是获得先进科技的另一潜在源头，也有 为了应对金融危机，中国政府曾经推出4万亿经济刺激 利于减少国家对进口重要机械设备的依赖。据报道称， 方案”。11 中央政府正在“积极促进此类并购，简化审批程序，完 善规章制度。13 上述消息公布的时间也许更值得考究。在批复公 告发布两天之后，政府发布各行业经济数据，投资者 中国的机械制造业，尤其是重型机械和建筑机械制 最担心的事情已经成为现实：世界第二大经济体已经 造业，似乎比很多其他行业在地理分布上更加多样化， 连续七个季度增速放缓。另外，几个星期之后，在11 主要的制造商分布在内陆省份，北至哈尔滨，相较而 月召开的中共十八大会议上，胡锦涛先生和温家宝先 言，东、南部沿海地区先发展起来的模式则引导了其他 生也正式离任。11 行业的发展。

有分析人士向路透社透露，这可能标志着中央政府 与重型机械不同，电子消费品在中国经济中也扮演 将会采取比以前更加积极的经济政策。11 着重要的角色。2010年12月，在接受《中国日报》访问 时，宏基电脑公司首席执行官蒋凡可•兰奇预计，中国 无论出于何种原因，发改委的消息刺激了市场走 内地在三年内将会成为全球最大的电子消费品市场。这 向。2012年上半年，很多中国工程机械类上市公司曾经 篇报道引用了IDC研究公司的报告，预测中国内地市场 陷入困境，如今因为受此利好消息影响，这些公司的股 将“在去年5400万单位的基础上增长21个百分点”14。 票价格出现大幅上涨。例如，“在上海证券交易所上市 的三一重工、在深圳证券交易所上市的中联重工和太原 上述市场增长并不新鲜。据报道，2008年中国的笔 重工股价均出现大涨，涨幅达10%。日本建筑设备制造 记本电脑销售量比上年同期增长了近35%15。2009年，“ 商的股价也上升，在东京证券交易所，小松建设工业股 家电下乡”中购买个人电脑受补贴的活动开始活跃，农 价升幅为6.6%，日立建筑机械则为4.7%。”此外，“美 村的个人电脑（包括台式机和便携式电脑）在1月至10 国卡特彼勒公司，全球最大的重工设备制造商，其股价 月间的销售量超过792000台16。国内生产企业联想、海 上升了4.1%。”11 尔、方正、清华同方等在“家电下乡”补贴计划中占据 总销量的97.7％17。根据《中国日报》文章的报道，最 中央政府公布了上述批复消息之后，虽然各方面纷纷 高价格为3500－4000元的产品将加入该计划，为较为富 表现乐观情绪，但是机械业发展前景似乎依然不太明朗。 裕的农民提供购买高端产品的机会并进行补贴，从而又 拉动销售16。 据路透社报道，“中国是全球最大的建筑市场，由 于经济持续放缓，市场投资增速跌至近十年来最低点， 进入中国市场的思科、瞻博网络和IBM等面向企业 中外机械制造商均面临艰难局面。由于利润下降，企业 的科技企业将继续面临来自中国政府的挑战： 不得不大幅减产或者寻找新客户。”11 中国政府一向不是十分信任外国科技企 因此，卡特彼勒公司开始把中国制造的机械设备 业。2013年6月，泄密者爱华德•斯诺登揭发了 出口至中东和非洲地区，日立集团则“决定让位于中 美国国安局秘密监控和数据搜集项目。自此之 国东部的挖掘机厂大幅减产”，而“中国机械业的龙 后，中国对外国科技企业的担忧更加严重。 头企业三一重工第二季度利润下降了28%，虽然在发改 委公布批复后股价出现涨停，其2012年度股价仍然下 安可公关顾问有限公司大中华区主席麦健陆 跌超过20%。”11 （James McGregor）表示，“这一切事关中国使 用其自有技术，事关中国打造自己的领先科技 北京经济研究机构龙洲经讯（GK Drogonomics）董 企业。” 事总经理葛艺豪（Arthur Kroeber）说，“人们低估了经

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istence of the NSA’s clandestine data mining program na’s top smartphone vendor, according to Canalys, a market in June. research company, as the Korean smartphone maker struggles continued in the third quarter, faced with tough competition “This is all about China using its own technology, and from Xiaomi as well as the launch of Apple’s iPhone 6 and iP- China building leading technology companies,” said hone 6 Plus. 42 At the same time, tech pundits all over the world James McGregor, chairman for Greater China at con- have been raving about the debut of the One, a low-budget sultancy APCO Worldwide. Android smartphone from Shenzhen-based start-up OnePlus, tipped to be a game-changer because, unlike other Chinese do- Although Beijing has not prohibited state firms from mestic smartphone manufacturers, the One is bent on conquer- purchasing Western-made technology services and ing not just China but also, international markets.43 equipment, the government has sent a clear message to Also notable is the ongoing implementation of the 3G stan- choose Chinese-made equipment first, China-based ex- dard in China, following an initial announcement in December ecutives say.18 2008 of a $40 billion investment in third-generation infrastruc- ture over two years. An update on the proliferation of 3G ca- Video game hardware, however, appear to be less pabilities came in April 2010, when the Ministry of Industry controversial. In 2013 the Chinese government “temporarily and Information Technology reported that all cities above the lifted a 14-year-old ban on selling video game consoles, paving prefecture level, most counties and towns, main highways and the way for Sony Corp, Microsoft Corp and Nintendo Co tourist destinations would eventually offer 3G connectivity fol- Ltd to enter the world’s third largest video game market in lowing an investment in building more than 400,000 base sta- terms of revenue.” Under the new rules, video game consoles tions totaling nearly $60 billion, up from the previously-report- manufactured by “foreign-invested enterprises” in Shanghai’s ed $40 billion. These investments aim to achieve 150 million new Free Trade Zone will be permitted to be sold on the 3G subscribers by 2011.27 Mainland “after inspection by cultural departments.”19 This target was not met (or at the very least is highly im- Formerly the exclusive domain of grey-market importers, game probable to have been met, as final annual totals have not been consoles are expected to face fierce competition in the mainstream released at the time of writing); statistics released in September from PC-, phone- and tablet-based games—all platforms with 2011 showed a total of 101.86 million 3G subscribers nation- which Mainland consumers are already familiar.19 ally.24 Mobile handsets also figure greatly into China’s machinery In August 2012, the Ministry of Industry and Informa- and electrical equipment manufacturing. It is reported that 560 tion Technology reported “1.072 billion mobile subscriptions million handsets were produced during 2007 (an increase of [of which] 193 million were 3G network service subscribers,” nearly 17 percent on 2006’s production)20 and with a domestic an increase of 64 million 3G accounts which places the three market of 523 million users as of 2007.21 mobile operators—China Mobile, China Unicom and China There were reportedly 600 million handsets manufactured Telecom—at 72.1, 63.7 and 56.4 million 3G subscribers, re- in the PRC over the course of 2009, of which 168 million were spectively.28 sold domestically.22 China Daily reported more than 106 mil- Particularly notable is the fact that despite China Mobile lion new domestic mobile phone subscribers that year, increas- has approximately twice as many overall subscribers as China ing the total to 747 million.23 By September 2011, that figure Unicom, 3G subscription numbers between the two are neck- was reported as 939 million.24 and-neck. Earlier this year a Forbes analysis admonished Chi- Although Korean conglomerate Samsung “is the biggest na Mobile for apparent complacency in the face of increasing smartphone vendor in China with sales reaching around 70 competition for 3G users; the report also noted that “the fact million units [in 2012],” it faces stiff competition at the high that China Mobile runs its 3G network on a proprietary home- end of the market from Apple25and at more modest price points grown TD-SCDMA standard has proved to be a big deterrent from domestic manufacturers which are quickly gaining on in- for the carrier in securing smartphones compatible with its net- ternational leaders in terms of execution and sophistication. work. Even the iPhone, which has already been launched on Xiaomi, one such firm, “sold 18.7 million smartphones in the other two carriers in China, hasn’t made its way to China 2013” and has projected total sales exceeding 40 million hand- Mobile yet.”29 sets in 2014. “Xiaomi’s handsets,” explains Reuters, “sell for be- China Mobile’s use of TD-SCDMA was mandated by the tween $130 and $410, much lower than the $740 price tag for Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2009, the least expensive iPhone 5C model or a Samsung Galaxy Note presumably to ensure that China’s indigenous standard would II, which can retail for $570.”26 succeed regardless of foreign competition. In the summer of 2014, Xiaomi surpassed Samsung as Chi- In late 2010, China Mobile began a Ministry of Industry

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有在华企业高管表示，尽管中国政府没有禁止 机技术专家瞩目。一加手机是深圳市万普拉斯科技有限 国有企业购买西方的技术服务和设备，但是中 公司推出的低预算安卓智能手机。业内人士认为，该公 国政府传递出的信息很明确，即优先选择中国 司有望成为智能手机市场的变革者。与其他只关注中国 自己的设备。18 国内市场的智能手机不同，一加手机不仅要征服中国市 场，还要征服国际市场43。

视频游戏硬件领域似乎少一些争议性。2013年， 另一显著事件是中国实行3G标准，在此之前的2008 中国政府“暂时解除了长达十四年的掌上游戏机销售禁 年12月，中国宣布将在未来两年内投入400亿美元建设3G 令，为索尼公司、微软公司和任天堂有限公司进入世界 基础设施。2010年4月，中国工业和信息化部公布，国家 第三大视频游戏市场铺平道路。”在新规定下，“外资 将投入600亿美元建设超过40万个基站，远远超出早前报 企业”在上海自由贸易区生产的游戏机，“通过文化主 道的400亿美元，为所有地级以上城市、大部分县镇、主 管部门审查后”可以面向中国大陆市场销售。19 要高速公路及旅游景点提供3G网络。国家大量投入资金 发展3G，争取在2011年年底3G用户达到1.5亿27。 在中国，游戏机产品以前只可以从灰色渠道进口。 销售禁令解除之后，掌上游戏机公司有机会进入庞大的 这个目标仍未实现（或者至少说极可能无法实 中国市场，而中国大陆的消费者早已熟悉个人电脑、手 现，因为截止撰写本文，最终年度统计数字尚未公 机、平板电脑等主流游戏平台，掌上游戏机公司要在中 布）；2011年9月公布的数据显示，全国3G用户数量为 国市场分一杯羹，将会面临激烈的竞争。19 1.0186亿。24

《华尔街日报》援引的调查报告指出，到2012年， 2012年8月，中国工业和信息化部发布报告称“中 中国会成为世界上最大的个人电脑市场（从数量上看）， 国移动电话用户达到10.72亿，其中1.93亿为3G网络用 预计出口数量将达8500万台。移动电话也对中国机械和电 户”，比上年增加6400万。中国三大移动电信运营商拥 气设备制造业贡献极大。据报道，2007年中国生产了5.6 有3G网络用户数量分别为：中国移动7210万，中国联通 亿部手机（比2006年的产量增长了近17%20。2007年，国 6370万，中国电信5640万。28 内市场已拥有5.23亿手机用户21。

特别值得注意的是，尽管中国移动用户数量几乎是 据报道，2009年中国手机生产总量达到6亿部， 中国联通的两倍，但是两家公司的3G网络用户数量却不 其中国内销售量为1.68亿部22。《中国日报》指出， 相上下。今年年初，《福布斯》在一份分析报告中告诫 仅2009年新增移动电话用户就超过1.06亿，使全国总 中国移动不要对竞争日益激烈的3G市场掉以轻心。该报 用户数量达到7.47亿23。截至2011年9月，该数字已达 告评论说，“事实已经证明，中国移动的3G网络采用中 9.39亿24。 国自主研发的TD-SCDMA技术标准，已经成为中国移动 争夺智能手机用户的主要障碍，因为市面上大部分智能 虽然韩国三星企业集团是中国最大的智能手机销售 手机都不兼容这一技术。即便是已经与中国电信和中国 商，2012年的销售量达到7000万台，但在高端智能手机 联通合作的iPhone，也尚未进入中国移动网络。”29 市场，三星必须面对来自苹果的激烈竞争25；而在平价 手机市场，三星也面临中国国内手机制造商的挑战，后 2009年，根据中国工业与信息化部的要求，中国移 者正迅速在生产和性能方面取得国际领先地位。 动采用TD-SCDMA技术标准，大概是为了确保中国具有 自主知识产权的移动通信标准在外国竞争下仍然占有一 小米科技便是其中之一。2013年，小米智能手机 席之地。 的销售量达到1870万台，预计2014年的销售总量将超过 4000万台。对此，路透社解释道，“小米的智能手机售 2010年年底，经中国工业和信息化部批准，中国移 价在130美元到410美元之间，远远低于苹果相对廉价的 动开始在北京、上海、杭州、南京、广州、深圳和厦门 型号iPhone5C或者三星Galaxy Note II，后两者的零售价 试行其4G网络。30 分别为740美元和570美元。” 26

到2013年，中国第四代网络设施正在建设之中。据 根据市场分析公司科纳仕（Canalys）的报告，今 报道，2013年8月，中国移动拟投入30亿美元升级网络设 年第二季度小米手机首次超越三星成为中国市场最大的 备，“深圳的华为和对手中兴分别中标获得大约25%的份 智能手机厂商。三星电子是韩国的智能手机制造商，第 额”。而外资企业总共中标份额大约占三分之一。31 三季度三星电子仍然未能摆脱困境，除了要面对小米品 牌的强大挑战之外，还面临苹果推出iPhone 6和iPhone 6 路透社报道说，“2010年开始在日韩兴起的第一波 Plus的冲击42。与此同时，一加手机一登场便广受全球手 4G投资青睐爱立信和诺基亚-西门子通信网络，而在美

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and Information Technology-approved trial of its 4G network processors make their way into consumer handsets, that could in Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Guangzhou, Shen- potentially pose a challenge for Google’s Android as well as for zhen and Xiamen.30 US-based chip manufacturer Qualcomm Inc.” 45 By 2013, 4G infrastructure was under construction. In The “Appliances to the Countryside” program subsidizes August of that year it was reported that “Shenzhen-based Huawei appliance and consumer electronics manufacturers to sell and crosstown rival ZTE have obtained about 25 percent each” goods worth a projected 920 billion yuan to customers in 14 of China Mobile’s estimated $3 billion effort to upgrade its rural provinces at discount over four years. The program began network. Foreign firms, meanwhile, accounted for an additional with the sales of televisions, refrigerators, washing machines third of the overall value of the contracts awarded31. and mobile phones receiving subsidies valued at 13 percent of “The first wave of 4G investments that began in 2010 in the purchase price34, and later expanded to include personal Japan and Korea favored Ericsson and NSN, while the second computers, electric bicycles, gas stoves, pressure cookers, DVD in the United States went largely to Ericsson and Alcatel- players and more.35 Lucent. Huawei won a chunk of Europe’s 4G contracts [in As of September 2011, a total of 189 million home 2012],” writes Reuters.31 appliances were reported to have been sold with an estimated The infrastructure upgrade was suggested by some to be a value of 429.9 billion yuan36. Roughly a year later, those figures precondition for China Mobile to offer Apple’s popular iPhone were reported by Xinhua as reaching “283 million units of handsets to its customers31; Less than six months later “Chinese home appliances worth 681.1 billion yuan”37. regulators awarded 4G wireless licenses to China Mobile Ltd, Another effort to increase domestic consumption, a trade- China Unicom Hong Kong Ltd and China Telecom Corp in program offering 10 percent subsidies for individuals and Ltd, removing the final stumbling block to a deal that industry companies recycling old goods (many of the same items observers had long expected.”32 covered by the “appliances to the countryside” program) According to market research firm Forrester, “China Mobile and purchasing replacements, was initiated in June 2009 as a could gain 17 million new iPhone activations in 2014 alone,” trial in nine municipalities and provinces (Beijing, Shanghai, while it is also expected to be a “much-needed boost for Apple Tianjin, Fuzhou, Changsha, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and in a country where it’s trailing rivals, even though China is its Guangdong)38 and was expanded to 28 cities and provinces in second-largest market after the U.S.”32 The deal could reportedly June 201039. Less than a month after the trial began in 2009, generate as much as “$3 billion in revenue [for Apple] in 2014”26. the program was amended to allow individual consumers a Meanwhile, “China Telecom [picked] Alcatel-Lucent to maximum of 5 such appliances with subsidy, while companies supply its next-generation 4G technology for a nationwide trial were limited to 50.40 In total, this program is expected to of high-speed mobile broadband.”33 generate an additional 150 billion yuan (approximately $22 In March 2014, according to Wei Zaisheng, the finance billion) in domestic spending between participating individual director for ZTE, the Chinese state-owned equipment maker, consumers and companies.38 A Ministry of Commerce report as told to the Financial Times, that from 300,000 4G base in March 2011indicated that the program had stimulated 152 stations, China is slated “to have as many as 1 million” by the billion yuan in sales of 40.27 million items, with an additional end of the year44. 41.72 million units having been traded in39. The latest chapter in China’s drive for tech self-sufficiency – and a subsequent reduce reliance on U.S.-made technology Notable Policy Activity – sees cooperation from both state-owned companies and private tech firms to make its own secure smartphones. Import Tariffs on Electronic Goods Chinese smartphone maker ZTE Corp. is working on a secure Ten years after the PRC’s accession into the WTO, import smartphone for government agencies using an operating system tariffs on some electronic products (including personal developed in-house, and a processor chip from a Chinese computers and digital cameras) were cut by the Ministry of supplier, the country’s largest chip-design company, Spreadtrum Finance from 20 percent to 10 percent41. Communications Inc., separately said it would begin mass “The change will permit distributors and dealers to make producing a set of chips that run a Chinese operating system their prices similar to those overseas, removing an incentive for by year-end. Additionally, e-commerce giant Alibaba says it consumers to buy their digital devices elsewhere,” a China Dai- has joined with China’s Ministry of Public Security to develop ly-quoted analyst observed at the time, referring to the common a mobile OS for police officer that it bills as more secure. The practice of affluent Mainland consumers traveling to Hong Wall Street Journal observes that the trend is “unlikely to have Kong or other nations to purchase such goods—in particular much impact on the market share in China of U.S. mobile personal computers and mobile phones such as the now-ubiq- components and software. But if more made-in-China OS’s and uitous iPad.41

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国兴起的第二波投资，爱立信和阿尔卡特-朗讯则成为 截至2011年9月，全国“家电下乡”产品累计销售 了最大的受益方。华为也在2012年拿下了相当可观的欧 1.89亿台，实现销售额约4299亿元人民币36。大约一年之 洲4G合同。” 31 后，新华网再次报道“家电下乡”销售情况，家电产品累 计销售量上升至2.83亿台，销售额达到6811亿元。37 有人认为，中国移动网络升级，是向消费者销售 大受欢迎的苹果iPhone手机的前提条件；31“在中国监 提高国内消费还有另一项新举措，也就是向个人及 管部门向中国移动发放4G无线牌照不足六个月之后， 企业提供10%的补贴，折价回收旧电子产品或以旧换新（ 中国联通（香港）有限公司和中国电信集团有限公司 其中很多产品包含在“家电下乡”计划范围内）。这项 也消除了最后的障碍，获得了业内观察员期待已久的 措施从2009年6月开始在9个省市试行（北京、上海、天 4G无线牌照。” 32 津、福州、长沙、江苏、浙江、山东和广东）38，2010 年6月推广至28个省市39。2009年试行不到一个月，该 据市场调研机构佛瑞斯特（Forrester）预测，“单 项措施作出修订，规定每个消费者最多能购买5件带补 在2014年一年内，通过中国移动网络激活的新iPhone将 贴的家电产品，而公司购买的数量上限为50件40。总而 会达到1700万台。”同时，要在中国击败尾随其后的竞 言之，该计划有助带动个人和公司消费，预计能增加总 争对手，苹果公司也非常需要与中国移动合作。而中国 值大约为1500亿元人民币的国内消费（相当于220亿美 是苹果的第二大销售市场，仅在美国之后。32据报道， 元）。382011年3月，中国商务部发布报告显示，“家电 通过与中国移动的合作，苹果“将在2014年直接增长30 下乡”计划成功刺激销售总额为1520亿元、共计4027万 亿美元的收益”。26 件的家电产品，以及折价回收或以旧换新产品数量达到 4172万件39。 而“中国电信则选择了阿尔卡特-朗讯为其提供下一 代4G技术，在全国范围内部署高速移动宽带网络。” 33 重要政策变动 2014年3月，中国国有设备制造商中兴通讯 （ZTE）的财务总监韦在胜在接受《金融时报》采访时 对进口电子产品征收进口税 表示，到今年年底，中国的4G基站数量将会大幅度增 44 加，从目前的30万个增加到100万个。 中国入世十年之后，中国财政部对进口电子产品（包 括个人电脑和数码相机）征收的关税从20%下降到10% 41 。 中国一直追求自主创新，希望在技术上实现自给自 足，以减少对美国技术的依赖。2015年中国自主研发的 《中国日报》援引分析人士称，“关税下调意味 最新篇章，当属国有企业和私营技术公司合作打造中国 着国内经销商和零售商将调整产品价格，使之与海外价 自己的安全智能手机。中国智能手机制造商中兴正在与 格水平一致，从而避免消费者从其他地方购买数码产 政府部门合作研发一款安全智能手机，该手机使用自主 品。”富裕的大陆消费者习惯到香港或其他国家旅游购 研发的操作系统，处理器芯片则来自中国本土供应商展 物，尤其喜欢购买个人电脑和手机，例如现在风靡世界 讯通信有限公司，也是中国最大的芯片设计企业。该公 的平板电脑iPad41。 司表示，年底之前会开始批量生产运行国产操作系统的 芯片组。此外，电子商务巨头阿里巴巴表示将与中国公 安部合作，为警务人员开发更加安全的移动操作系统。 潜在政策影响 《华尔街日报》认为，这股趋势“不太可能对美国手机 零部件和软件在中国的市场份额产生太大影响。但是可 继续采用并参与制定国际标准 能会对谷歌的安卓系统和美国芯片制造商高通等公司构 45 成挑战。” 自主创新和政府对此的“大力支持”在很多环境下 都具有重要意义，但是偏离国际开发通用标准会让中国 “家电下乡”计划为中国的家电制造商提供补贴， 公司付出巨大的代价，因为他们除了要进行标准本地化 在四年内以折扣价向14个农业省份的居民出售总价值达 之外，还不得不为不同的市场重新设计技术和产品。 9200亿元人民币的家电产品。“家电下乡”计划开始 覆盖的的产品包括电视机、电冰箱、洗衣机和手机， 在一些不会威胁到国家安全或者战略安全领域，认 购买者能获得所购买产品价格13％的补贴（21）。随 同国际标准不但有助于在中国的外国公司，也有助于中 后覆盖的产品增加了个人电脑、电动车、煤气炉、压 国公司，因为如果公司能够应用（如果可以的话）全球 34 力锅、DVD影碟机等等 。截止至2011年9月，“家电下 所有现有知识的话，那么，开发、执行和故障排除的成 乡”计划销售的家电数量达到1.89亿件，推测销售总额 本无疑就会大大减少。 约为4299亿元。35

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Potential Policy Gains Works Cited

Continued Adoption of and Participation in International 1 “Production of China’s Machinery Industry Up 26.42% in First 8 Standards Months.” National Population and Family Planning Commission While domestic innovation and “strong support” for the of China. September 26, 2011. http://www.npfpc.gov.cn/en/ fruits thereof make sense in many contexts, straying from in- detail.aspx?articleid=111010171232421897. ternationally-developed and -adopted standards can be a signif- icant cost to companies who have to redesign technical aspects 2 The National Bureau of Statistics of China. “China Statistical Year- of products for each market, in addition to standard localiza- book 2009.” China Statistics Press. Beijing, People’s Republic of tion efforts. China. 2009. In areas which are not considered of importance to nation- al or strategic security, conformity to standards will not only 3 Zheng Chenguang. “China’s Machinery Industry Sees Strengthened help international companies in China, but also Chinese firms, Self-innovative Capability.” CRI News. January 22, 2008. http:// as the costs of development, implementation and troubleshoot- english.cri.cn/4026/2008/01/22/[email protected]. ing will undoubtedly decrease when companies are able to rely upon a (hopefully) global body of existing knowledge. 4 “China’s Machinery, Electronic Exports Rank 1st Worldwide.” Similarly, as Chinese design and manufacturing becomes China Daily. September 28, 2010. http://www.chinadaily.com. more sophisticated, domestic industry players can benefit from cn/m/hubei/2010-09/28/content_11360909.htm. global discourse on the topic through their own participation— legislative or otherwise artificial manipulation is not likely to 5 “Nearly 70% of Exported Machinery, Electronic Products improve innovation or productivity. Done by Foreign-funded Firms.” China Daily. February 17, 2010. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-02/17/ content_9472109.htm.

6 “China’s Machinery Industry Posts Slower Output, Sales Growth in H1.” Xinhua. July 22, 2011. http://news.xinhuanet.com/ english2010/china/2011-07/22/c_131003232.htm.

7 “China Should Increase High Tech Exports.” China Daily. September 25, 2010. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-09/25/ content_11343079.htm.

8 “China Unveils Plans to Spur Key Industries.” Xinhua. February 5,2009.http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-02/05/ content_10767784.htm.

9 “China’s Top Political Advisor Urges Efforts to Boost Development of Machinery Industry.” Xinhua. March 29, 2011. http://news. xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-03/29/c_13803974.htm.

10 Yoko Kubota and Wan Xu. “Global Machinery Makers Bank on China Rebound in 2013.” Reuters. October 30, 2012. http:// www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/30/machinery-earnings- idUSL3E8LU3B320121030.

11 Pete Sweeney and Langi Chiang. “WRAPUP 3-China Approves $157-billion Infrastructure Spending.” Reuters. September 7,2012. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/07/china-economy- idUSL6E8K7JBJ20120907.

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同样，如果中国的设计和生产发展得足够成熟，国 内各行业生产商就可以亲自加入制定国际标准的全球对 话合作，并从中获益。否则，法制或人为垄断不利于促 进创新或者提高生产力。

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12 “The Survey of Foreign Investment in China’s Machinery Industry 24 Christina Lo. Vinu, Pilakkott, ed. “China’s Mobile Subscribers in 2009.” Invest in China. October 28, 2010. http://www.fdi. Rise 1.3 Percent in Sept.” Reuters. October 28, 2011. http:// gov.cn/pub/FDI_EN/Economy/Sectors/Manufacturing/ www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/28/us-china-mobile- Machinery/t20101028_127773.htm. idUSTRE79R11M20111028.

13 Yu Hongyan. “China to push M&As from key industries.” China 25 Miyoung Kim. “Samsung Electronics Braces for Weakest Year of Daily. September 27, 2010. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ Smartphone Growth.” Reuters. January 6, 2014. http://www. bizchina/2010-09/27/content_11354069.htm. reuters.com/article/2014/01/06/us-samsung-smartphone-apple- idUSBREA0510E20140106. 14 “Acer says China to be World’s Largest Computer Market.” China Daily. December 1, 2010. http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/ 26 “China’s Xiaomi Says to More Than Double Smartphone business/2010-12/01/content_11638408.htm. Sales in 2014.” Reuters. January 2, 2014. http://www. reuters.com/article/2014/01/02/us-china-xiaomi- 15 Zhu Shenshen. “Laptops Surge in Computer Market.” Shanghai idUSBREA010B920140102. Daily. December 23, 2008. http://www.shanghaidaily.com/sp/ article/2008/200812/20081223/article_385525.htm. 27 “China Targets 150m 3G Users by 2011.” China Daily. April 9, 2010. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-04/09/ 16 Wang Xing. “Removal of Subsidy Caps to Boost Sales, Say PC content_9704767.htm. Makers.” China Daily. December 8, 2009. http://www.chinadaily. com.cn/cndy/2009-12/08/content_9134774.htm. 28 Shen Jingting. “China 3G Subscribers to Reach 200m Soon.” China Daily. September 24, 2012. http://www.chinadaily.com. 17 “Domestic Computer Producers Win Out In Rural Sales cn/business/2012-09/24/content_15778612.htm. Promotion.” Xinhua. July 31, 2009. http://news.xinhuanet.com/ english/2009-07/31/content_11804792.htm. 29 Trefis Team. “China Mobile Needs To Wake Up As 3G Growth Slows.” Forbes. August 29, 2012. http://www.forbes.com/sites/ 18 Mathew Miller. “Spy Scandal Weighs on U.S. Tech Firms greatspeculations/2012/08/29/china-mobile-needs-to-wake-up- in China, Cisco Takes Hit.” Reuters. November 14, 2013. as-3g-growth-slows/. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/15/us-china-cisco- idUSBRE9AD0J420131115. 30 Edmond Lococo. “China Mobile Profit Rises.”China Daily. March 17, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2011-03/17/ 19 Paul Carsten. “China Suspends Ban On Video Game Gonsoles content_12183571.htm. After More Than A Decade.”Reuters . January 7, 2014. http:// www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/07/us-china-gamesconsoles- 31 Lee Chyen Yee. “Huawei, ZTE Win Bulk of China Mobile’s $3 idUSBREA0606C20140107. Billion 4G Bonanza: Sources.” Reuters. August 23, 2013. http:// www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/23/us-chinamobile-4g- 20 Florin Troaca. “560 Million Handsets From China in 2007.” idUSBRE97M02020130823. Softpedia News. May 24, 2007. http://news.softpedia.com/ news/560-Million-Handsets-From-China-in-2007-55532.shtml. 32 Ryan Vlastelica and Paul Carsten. “Apple, China Mobile Sign Long- Awaited Deal to Sell iPhones.” Reuters. December 23, 2014. http:// 21 Dan Nystedt. “China Mobile Testing 3G Windows Mobile www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/23/us-apple-china-mobile- Handset.” InfoWorld. November 26, 2007. http://www.infoworld. idUSBRE9BL0E320131223. com/article/07/11/26/China-Mobile-tests-3G-Windows- Mobile-handset_1.html. 33 “Alcatel-Lucent Wins Second Major China Deal.” Reuters. December 12,2013.http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/12/us-alcatel- 22 Steve Shen “China Market: Handset Production Reaches 600 china-idUSBRE9BB0TQ20131212. Accessed February 2, 2014. Million Units in 2009, Says Paper.” Digitimes Telecom. 7 January 2010. http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20100107PB201.html. 34 Staff. “China to Subsidize Computer, Appliance Sale to Farmers.” China Stakes Blog. December 2, 2008. http://www.chinastakes. 23 “China’s Telecom Sector Reports 4% Rise in Main Business Revenue com/story.aspx?id=879. Accessed December 29, 2008. in 2009.” China Daily. January 22, 2010. http://www.chinadaily. com.cn/enmobile/2010-01/22/content_9361823.htm.

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35 “Rural Home Appliance Subsidy Boosts Sales 5 Folds.” China Daily. May28,2010. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-05/08/ content_9825428.htm.

36 “Home Appliance Sales in Rural China Jump 67 Pct Via Subsidies in Sept..” Xinhua. October 10, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com. cn/bizchina/2011-10/11/content_13868333.htm.

37 “China’s Home Appliance Sales Pick Up”. Xinhua. November 19, 2012.http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-11/19/ content_15940319.htm.

38 “China to Expand Home Appliance Replacement Scheme.” China Daily. June 3, 2010. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/m/fujian/ fuzhou/2010-06/03/content_9935863.htm.

39 Li Woke. “Dishwashers to be the Next Big Home Appliance Must- Have?.” China Daily. October 10, 2011. http://www.chinadaily. com.cn/bizchina/2011-10/10/content_13859018.htm.

40 “China Sets Caps on Purchases of Subsidized Home Appliances.” Xinhua. June 24, 2010. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/ china/2010-06/24/c_13366958.htm.

41 Tuo Yannan. “Import Tariffs Halved on Electronics.”China Daily. January 28, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ bizchina/2011-01/28/content_11932469.htm.

42 Jungah Lee. “Samsung Poised for Ugly Quarter as iPhones Get Big- ger.” Bloomberg News. October 6, 2014. http://www.bloomberg. com/news/2014-10-05/samsung-poised-for-ugly-quarter-as- iphones-get-bigger.html?hootPostID=ea2076796ff8e8c260e- b68ada547f987.

43 Farhad Manjoo. “Low Price, High Hopes for OnePlus Phone.” New York Times. October 8, 2014. http://www.nytimes. com/2014/10/09/technology/personaltech/oneplus-one-review- high-hopes-for-low-price-phone.html?_r=0

44 Daniel Thomas. “China Speeds Past Europe on 4G Mobile Roll- out.” Financial Times. March 2, 2014. http://www.ft.com/ cms/s/0/6c82e78a-a082-11e3-a72c-00144feab7de.html#axzz- 3JswgPeDx

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2.4 Transportation and Logistics

ransportation and logistics have been ing issues with the sector, including inefficient operations and Tintimately related to the export-oriented manufacturing inadequate transportation capacity.8 Other concerns about the that has served as a major driver of China’s economic growth industry have included a lack of broad competencies by domes- since 1978. Since the official opening of the sector to foreign -in tic firms, a shortage of professional talent and generally disorga- vestment in 2005 as a part of China’s WTO-entry obligations, nized macro-level planning.9 foreign, in addition to domestic, companies have also held a A 2010 report by consulting firm A.T. Kearney had previously stake in the sector’s growth and have benefited from the gradual singled out fragmentation and competition for homogenous improvement of related infrastructure. and non-diversified services as indicators of the sector’s need for In February 2007 it was estimated by the China International development, in addition to the issues above10, and even China Freight Forwarders Association that there were 20,000 freight Daily joined in the criticism, calling for the PRC government to forwarding companies operating in China1. decrease administrative burdens on companies serving both the According to government figures, the total output and added domestic and international markets.11 value of the logistics industry in 2008 reached 89.9 and 2 trillion Nevertheless, a 2010 report by PriceWaterhouse Coopers yuan—an annual increase of 23 and 1.9 percent, contributed 16.5 is more optimistic, stating that the transportation and logistics percent of the aggregate added value throughout the service sec- “market will continue to increasein the future and consider tor and 6.6 percent of the nation’s GDP.2 on-going growth rates of more than 20% as realistic. The rapid It was reported in December of 2009 that the logistics development of electronic commerce has laid a solid founda- sector’s “combined output value rose 4 percent year-on-year tion for the industry. Approximately 10% of China’s 420 mil- to 1.47 trillion yuan” in the three quarters of 2009,3 with Ma lion internet users have already purchased products through the Zeng Rong, Vice-Chief of the exhibition division of the China internet and thus created demand for CEP services.” 42 Federation of Logistics and Purchasing having told reporters Foreign players such as DHL, FedEx, TNT or UPS all that “China’s logistics industry has weathered the financial have significant presence in the Chinese logistics market, crisis” approximately two months earlier4. experiencing 20 to 40% growth annually. Despite such growth In 2010, Xinhua reported that the industry’s value-add rates, it is still the small private domestic courier companies component had seen a net increase of 700 billion yuan from that dominate the majority of the Chinese CEP market42. This 2008 levels5. may change in future. The same report adds that according to In slightly different terms, a 2012 statement from the China the China International Freight Forwarders Association, as the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing indicated that the total Chinese middle class continue to gain in affluence, “labour cost value of goods carried by the industry in China “grew by 9.6 per- advantages of small courier companies will decline over the next cent year-on-year to reach 146.4 trillion yuan ($23.27 trillion) five to ten years. Future customers will place a much stronger in the first 10 months [of that year].” At the same time, however, emphasis on reliable delivery rather than price, an area where the Federation warned that “Logistics expenses in the first 10 multinational logistics services have a strong advantage over months surged 11.5 percent year-on-year to 7.2 trillion yuan, up small domestic courier companies.42” 0.2 percentage point from September and 1.9 percentage points In March 2009, State Council released the “logistics recon- from a year earlier”— underscoring the lingering inefficiencies struction and revitalization plan”, of which efforts were designed which have been targeted by the government’s modernization to encourage reconstruction and acceleration of M&A activity in efforts for several years already.6 order to (roughly) “cultivate a number of agglomerative and mod- These modernization efforts, in fact, were explicitly singled ernized logistics enterprises able to provide a high level of service out in the 11th Five-year Plan (viz. the “vigorous development of and compete in the international market.”12 [a] modern logistics industry”2). Since that time, the government This plan, however, was said to lag behind the industry’s invested an estimated 4.7 trillion yuan in the sector7. actual needs and as a result hindered long-term development In addition to this government investment, in recent years rather than helping it, according to China Federation of Logis- local logistics firms are said to have also benefitted from mea- tics and Purchasing Chairman He Liming.13 sures such as the adoption of modern management methods, Additional regulatory guidelines were released in August “process reengineering”, service outsourcing and diversification 2011 (Guobanfa [2011] No.38). In addition to adjusting tax in the market.2 burdens, the guidelines also allow for more favorable land-use Nonetheless, a 2011 KPMG report identifies several ongo- policies, the integration of resources and the strengthening of

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2.4 运输与物流业

运输和物流业与出口型制造业息息相关，自1978年 科尔尼管理咨询公司2010年公布的报告也与上述 以来逐步成为中国经济增长的主要动力。作为中国入世 评价不谋而合，尤其指出物流业市场涣散，竞争单一， 承诺之一，中国在2005年向外资开放运输和物流业。从 服务缺乏多样化等，这些都表明物流业需要进一步发 此，中国大力投入基础设施建设，外国公司从中也大大 展10。此外，《中国日报》也提出类似批评，并向政府 受益。 呼吁，希望对经营国内外物流服务的公司减轻行政负 担。11 2007年2月，根据中国国际货运代理协会推测，中 国大约有2万家货运代理公司1。 尽管如此，普华永道在2010年的报告则较为乐观， 指出“运输物流市场在未来将会继续增长，并认为持续 根据官方数据显示，2008年中国物流业总产值和 增长率超过20%是现实的。电子商务的快速发展为运输 附加值分别达到89.9万亿元和2万亿元——年增长率分 物流业的发展奠定了坚实的基础。在中国4.2亿互联网 别为23%和1.9%——为服务业附加值贡献16.5%，占全国 用户中，大约有10%已经通过网络购买商品，从而创造 GDP比重为6.6% 2。 了对全球复杂事件处理（CEP）服务的需求。”42

2009年12月，有报道称，在2009年前三个季度，中 中外运敦豪（DHL）、联邦快递（FedEx）、荷兰 国物流业“总产值比上年同期增长了4个百分点，达到 邮政（TNT）和联合包裹（UPS）等外国物流企业在中 1.47万亿元人民币”3。在这篇报道发布之前两个月， 国物流市场都拥有重要的市场份额，年增长率高达20%- 中国物流与采购联合会会展部副秘书长马增荣告诉记 40%。尽管增速不俗，占据中国CEP市场主要地位的，仍 者，“中国的物流业已经经受住金融风暴的冲击”。4 然是国内小型民营快递公司。42不过，未来情况可能发 生改变。普华永道的同一份报告补充说:“根据中国国 2010年，新华网报道称，中国物流业的附加值成分 际货运代理协会，在未来五到十年内，随着中国的中产 比2008年净增长7000亿元5。 阶级越来越富裕，小型快递公司的劳动力成本优势将会 逐步减少，未来的消费者将会更加注重商品运送交付的 2012年10月，中国物流与采购联合会发布报告公布物 可靠性，而不是价格，在这方面国际物流企业比国内小 流业统计数据。数据显示，中国物流业总产值“在2012年 型物流公司更具优势”42。 前十个月比上年同期增长了9.6%，达到146.4万亿元人民 币（23.27亿美元）”。与此同时，该报告指出，“前十 2009年3月，国务院颁布《物流业调整和振兴规 个月社会物流费用比上年同期增长11.5%，达到7.2万亿元 划》文件，该举措旨在鼓励物流业的重建和并购活动， 人民币，增幅比9月高2%，比上年同期高1.9%。”这些数 以（初步）加速培养“凝聚一批能够提供高水平服务和 据表明，中国经济运行中的物流成本依然较高，这也是中 拥有国际市场竞争力的现代化物流企业”12。 国政府在推动物流业现代化过程中一直希望解决的问题。6 然而，中国物流与采购联合会会长何黎明指出，中 事实上，中国“十一五”规划曾经明确提出要推 国这个计划落后于物流业的实际需要，因此不但未能不 进物流业现代化（即“大力发展现代物流业”）2。当 能振兴物流业，反而阻碍了该行业的长期发展13。 时起，中国政府在物流业的投资累计达到4.7万亿元人 民币7。 2011年8月，国务院办公厅发布了《关于促进物流 业健康发展政策措施的意见》（国办发[2011]38号）。 除了政府加大投资外，近年来地方物流企业也千方 除了调整税收负担外，该文件为物流业提供了更优惠的 百计寻求发展，例如采用现代物流管理方法，包括“流 土地使用政策，有利于资源整合，加强政府各部门间的 程再造”、服务外包和市场多样化等手段。2 协调13。

尽管如此，毕马威会计师事务所2011年的一份报告 科尔尼管理咨询公司的报告称，“中国国务院对 指出了中国物流业所面临的几个问题，包括经运营效率 全国9个地区的20个城市下达指示，要在未来两年内优 低下和运输能力不足等。8该行业还存在其他问题，例如 先升级物流业基础设施……基础设施升级已经提高了中 国内企业缺乏广泛竞争力、专业人才短缺、宏观规划较 国运输物流业的经营效益。近期其他有利于物流业发展 为混乱等9。 的基础设施建设包括建立一批区域物流配送中心、物流 园、现代仓库以及配送设备的进一步完善”10。

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coordination between government departments.13 officials prefer large-scale projects, it’s like they are ashamed to “China’s State Council has given first priority to more build a small airport”14. than 20 cities in nine regions for an infrastructure upgrade in By 2013 it was reported that profits remain elusive. “Of Chi- the next two years... [which upgrades] have already improved na’s 183 airports, 143 are loss making, [a fact which suggests] operational efficiencies in China’s transportation and logistics,” that more than 60 of the 80 new airports envisioned in China’s observed the above-cited A. T. Kearney report, which continued economic master plan for 2011-2015 will end up in the red.”15 that “Other recent infrastructure improvements that have “Developing an aviation hub is more than simply building helped the industry include a wave of new regional logistics an airport,” says one consultant. “It first of all requires minimum distribution centers, logistics parks, modern warehouses and annual passenger flows of 10 million and cargo volume of improved distribution facilities”10. 200,000 tons” she said, “Only Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Improvement efforts continue; the PRC government is Chengdu, Shenzhen and Kunming met that criteria at the end expected to invest in excess of 1.5 trillion yuan in the aviation of 2012.”15 sector alone during the 12th Five-year Plan period, increasing More broadly, KPMG observed in 2011 that improvements the number of airports from 175 to 220 and the number of in the domestic industry’s IT infrastructure, in better manage- aircraft from 2,600 to 4,500 8. ment practices and more sophisticated, integrated solutions Following up on investment funding earmarked for aviation, would help to eliminate some of the existing inefficiencies in -ad China Daily reported in November 2012 that several months dition to—or perhaps instead of—direct government action.8 prior the State Council “issued a document to encourage the A trend toward consolidation of discrete services within development of China’s civil aviation industry” and that “In the the transport and logistics industry has also been observed, same month, the Civil Aviation Administration of China said but as a result of more segments of the supply chain, including that the country plans to build 82 new airports and expand 101 transportation, warehousing, logistics and management of existing ones across the country from 2011 to 2015”14—the the supply chain itself, being outsourced to specialized service same period covered by the 12th Five-year Plan. providers rather than as part of consolidation efforts by the Central authorities are furthermore putting their money PRC’s Government16 (which, it was reported, had required where their mouth is, with the NDRC having “approved 24 Air China, China Eastern and China Southern to strengthen projects to build new airports and expand existing airports, with their cooperation in the cargo industry in order to “in order to an estimated investment of around 100 billion yuan ($15.9 bil- gain the upper hand in the domestic cargo market from foreign lion),” over the course of 2012.14 carriers”).17 Provincial authorities, the article continues, have wasted no Another interesting development among local players is do- time in jumping aboard the initiative: mestic giant SF Express reportedly negotiating with Siemens over green mobility products.18 [In October], Hunan province said it planned to build In the United States, trade with China—and the logistical 21 general aviation airports* in the next 18 years. requirements that accompany it—have been hugely beneficial for west coast port communities such as Los Angeles. As report- Earlier, neighboring Hubei province also said it would ed in the New York Times in 2007, “Processing and distributing build seven commercial airports and two general avia- millions of freight-laden containers through the region and out tion airports in the next 18 years.14 to the rest of the United States have become the largest source of jobs in the region.”19 Although government officials seem keen to expand Fuel costs, however, remain a persistent concern for the the nation’s network of airports—currently fewer than industry as a whole. It was reported in September 2008 that as a 300, including general aviation airports14—others are more result of the 18 percent increase in diesel and gasoline prices in cautious about expansion for expansion’s sake. Civil Aviation August of that year, fuel spending accounted for 40 percent of Management Institute of China professor Zou Jianjun warns, total transportation costs. Domestic Chinese courier companies, “Airport design projects do need certain forward-looking already operating on extremely thin margins due to competition characteristics. But local governments should also be realistic with “tens of thousands of local competitors offering increasingly about the airports’ prospects […] unfortunately, most local lower charges” have reportedly suffered greatly20.

* General aviation airports, as China Daily helpfully explains, “are designed to handle four to 10-seat aircraft, as well as planes used for agricultural, industrial and rescue purposes.”14

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完善物流业的努力仍在继续；在“十二五”规划期 府可以采取措施解决目前物流业效率低下问题。但是， 间，中国政府将对航空业投资超过1.5万亿元，机场数 完善国内行业信息技术基础设施、改进行业管理以及更 量从目前的175个增加到220个，飞机数量从2600架增加 现先进、更完整的解决方案将会是更加有效的方法8。 到4500架。8 运输和物流业的服务比较分散，目前已经出现了 除了对民航业加大投资外，政府也提出相关政策 整合的趋势。该行业供应链非常分散，而中国政府并没 鼓励行业发展。据《中国日报》2012年11月报道，国 有统一整合供应链的运输、仓储、后勤和管理，而是外 务院在几个月前“发布了促进民航业发展的文件”， 包给专业服务供应商15。（据报道，中国政府要求中国 而且“在同一个月，中国民用航空局表示，中国将在 航空、东方航空和南方航空加强在货运行业的合作，以 2011-2015年间兴建82座机场，并对201个机场进行扩 便“从国外航空公司手中夺回国内货运市场的优势。）17 建”14——也就是中国“十二五”规划时期内。 本土物流企业也出现了有意思的进步。据报道，国 中央政府将根据地方需要继续对民航业发展投入资 内物流巨头顺丰快递公司正在与德国西门子公司就绿色 金。2012年以来，中国国家发改委已经总计批复了24个 交通产品进行谈判。18 机场的新建及扩建工程，投资总额超过1000亿元人民币 （约159亿美元）14。 在美国，对华贸易以及伴随的物流需求已经给西部 港口城市带来巨大收益，例如洛杉矶。根据2007年《纽 该报道称，在中央鼓励下，各省政府争先恐后提出 约时报》的报道，“由处理并配送满载数百万货物的集 机场建设方案： 装箱到当地各处和美国其他城市所创造的就业机会，是 该地区各行业之最”19。 湖南省（11月）宣布计划在2012-2030年间新建 21个民用机场。【脚注】 燃料成本一直是整个运输和物流业所关心的问题。 根据2008年9月的报道， 当年8月份柴油和汽油价格上 在此之前，邻近的湖北省也宣布计划在未来18 涨18%，直接导致燃料花费占总运输成本的40%。为了 年内建设9个机场，其中7个为商业机场，2个为 同“成千上万家收费更低的地方快递公司”竞争，中国 民用机场。14 国内快递公司已经尽可能降低价格，在极其薄利的基础 上步履维艰地经营业务20。 政府官员似乎迫切希望扩大中国的航空运输网—包 括民用机场在内，目前全国机场数量还不到30014。然 尽管燃料成本起伏不定、资金成本节节攀升，而且 而，也有人担心新一轮扩建会沦为形式主义，为了扩建 2009年修订的《中华人民共和国邮政法》（参考下文）也 而扩建。中国民航管理干部学院教授邹建军警告说，“ 可能负面影响，但是很多业内人士仍然对增长保持乐观， 机场建设项目的确有适度超前的需要，但是机场的前景 因为根据国家统计局的数据，从2002年到2008年（目前可 如何，地方政府也应该考虑实际情况……可惜的是，大 得到的最新年度数据），中国货运总量从148亿吨增长到 21 多数地方官员喜欢搞大型项目，好像机场建得不够大， 258亿吨 。 他们就很没面子一样。”14 据新华网报道，虽然2010年同期下降了4.7%，但是 据报道，到2013年，这些机场的盈利状况仍然不如 2011年上半年的货运商品总值达到74.7万亿元，同比增 22 人意。“在中国183个机场中，有143个亏损。这就意味 长14% 。 着，在中国经济和社会发展‘十二五规划’拟定建设的 80个机场中，有超过60个会陷入亏损” 15。 电子商务对推动物流业发展所起的作用越来越大。 据报道，由于网络购物的蓬勃发展和上文提及的政策方 23 一位咨询师表示，“建立一个航空枢纽并不是建造 案，整个行业在2009年的总收入超过180亿元人民币 。 一个机场那么简单。”她说，“首先需要满足每年客运 量至少要达到1000万人次，货物吞吐量达到20万吨。到 事实上，电子商务发展速度之快，国内货运网络已 2012年年底，只有北京、上海、广州、成都和昆明符合 经不能满足其需求。据《中国日报》在2011年春节前的 上述标准。” 15 二月份报道，“包括圆通快递和申通快递在内，中国内 地几家大型私营快递公司上周决定，由于仓库已满，所 2011年，毕马威会计师事务所毫不讳言地指出，政 以停止在某些城市承接快递包裹，以确保在春节前全部

脚注：《中国日报》报道解释说，民用机场是指仅能容许小于10个作为的小型飞机起降的机场，主要用于喷洒农药、工业运输和紧急救援等。14

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Despite fuel cost fluctuations, capital cost hikes, and cases buying their own aircraft”27. potential setbacks contained in the 2009 revision of the Postal Some firms aren’t waiting for domestic delivery services to Law (see below), many participants in the sector remain increase capacity. “With more Chinese shoppers going online,” optimistic about growth, and with good reason: according to writes TheWall Street Journal, “demand for warehouses and the National Bureau of Statistics, between 2002 and 2008 (the parcel delivery services is [...], far outpacing the development of last year for which data was available) total freight volume has the country’s logistics infrastructure.”28 increased from 14.8 billion to 25.8 billion tons annually21. E-commerce giant Alibaba, itself solely responsible for a Xinhua reported that the total value of goods shipped over large slice of daily parcel deliveries, was reported in 2012 to be the first half of 2011 rose by nearly 14 percent year-on-year to “in talks with a few Chinese logistics firms—including a ware- reach 74.7 trillion yuan, despite having decreased by 4.7 percent house operator and a parcel-delivery company—to invest a total in the same period of 2010.22 of $100 million in them by the end of [that] year.”28 Increasingly, e-commerce is a driver for logistics industry Separately, the company also invested “billions of dollars development; booming Internet retail sales, combined with the to build a network of warehouses across China” and by above-mentioned policy initiatives, reportedly achieved sec- September 2012 had already purchased parcels of “land in tor-wide revenue in excess of 18 billion yuan in 2009.23 Tianjin, Shanghai and Guangzhou” upon which to build huge E-commerce may, in fact, be growing too fast for the domes- warehouse complexes28. tic cargo network to keep up: China Daily reported leading up Foreign participation in the sector—where permitted by to the Spring Festival in February 2011 that “major [domestic] law—is robust. In February 2009, FedEx opened its $150 mil- private delivery companies, such as Yuantong and Shentong, de- lion Asia Pacific hub in Guangzhou,29 which is expected to con- cided last week to stop accepting new packages in some cities to tribute a value upwards of $63 billion to China’s economy by ensure parcels in the already-full warehouses are delivered before 2020.30 the Spring Festival,” and that “The phenomena underscored the Competitor UPS similarly opened an Asia Pacific hub in fact that China’s logistics sector is lagging far behind the coun- Shenzhen, reportedly costing $180 million.29 try’s booming e-commerce market, which has witnessed explo- In 2008, UPS officials reported that China, Hong Kong, Ja- sive growth in recent years.”24 pan, South Korea and Taiwan accounted for more than half of More recently, Walmart Asia president and CEO Scott the company’s total intra-Asia volume that year, and are antici- Price also fingered China’s inefficient logistics infrastructure pated to grow in terms of overall volume in the future.31 as the biggest challenge to e-commerce in the nation, first and Roughly four years later, the company also announced “the foremost “stemming from the lack of efficient and reliable last- opening of three new healthcare distribution facilities in the mile delivery.”25 Asia-Pacific region, two of which are to be located in China, in On top of that, the State Post Bureau reportedly enforced Hangzhou and Shanghai, [bringing its] healthcare distribution its first-ever fine for parcel mishandling against domestic carrier facilities around the globe to 36.”32 Shentong Express after a video was posted online of “workers DHL’s $175 million North Asia hub in Shanghai is due for furiously distributing goods, kicking parcels and throwing items completion in 2012,33 and the company now owns a total in- to the ground.” The fine was for 10,000 yuan (approximately vestment in the nation worth $30 million, spanning 39 branch- $1,500)26. es and 26 sales offices across the country. It targets 90 branches More severe punishments have since been handed out: “[In and sales offices by 2015.34 November 2012], the China Air Transport Association, or Marie-Christine Lombard, CEO of TNT, predicted that by CATA, announced it was putting four domestic logistics firms 2020 the PRC’s delivery market would be equivalent to the cur- on its no-fly list because of security flaws, after a fire started rent market size in the United States—valued at approximately in a storage bin of a flight that eventually landed at Dalian $85.7 billion.35 Zhoushuizi Airport in October”27. Although foreign delivery services may face substantial op- The four firms, Shanghai YTO, Yunda Express, and the erating challenges and fierce local competition, foreign inves- Huixing and Qihao courier firms were “forced to suspend their tors are increasingly optimistic about the sector. air freight services until their business procedures improved.” In September 2013, “Carlyle Group said it was collaborating According to the association, “Shanghai YTO was blamed for with real-estate investment manager Townsend Group, as well its incorrect classification of lithium batteries, while the other as warehouse developer and operator Shanghai Yupei Group, to firms were punished for transporting the prohibited article ve- invest a total of $400 million in 17 warehouses in China that suvian, which caused the fire.”27 will be leased to firms including retailers and e-commerce com- The punishments take place as domestic courier services “are panies.”36 having to invest to compete in the air freight market, in some In August [2013] Cathay Capital Private Equity and the Si-

168 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

送完库存包裹。”“这种现象说明，中国物流业的发展 相比较之下，国际快递公司的经营状况就顺利得 远远落后于蓬勃发展且近年来均呈激增态势的电子商务 多。2009年2月，联邦快递公司投入1.5亿美元在广州建 市场”24。 立亚太地区枢纽29，预计到2020年为中国经济创造超过 630亿美元的价值。30 最近，沃尔玛亚洲区总裁贝思哲（Scott Price）指 出，物流基础设施效率较低，是中国电子商务发展的最 另据报道，联邦快递公司的竞争对手UPS也斥资1.8 大挑战，而效率较低的原因，主要是是“无法提供高效 亿美元在深圳建立了亚太地区枢纽。29 可靠的‘最后一公里’送货服务”。25 根据UPS官方的信息，2008年UPS在中国、香港、 另外，有报道介绍，中国国家邮政局第一次对违 日本、韩国和台湾等地区今年的营业量占该公司在亚 规处理包裹行为处以罚款。一段“申通快递暴力分拣 洲营运总量的一半以上，并预计未来的营业总量会继 物品现场”的视频在网上传播，在视频中可见“工人 续上升。31 暴力分配货物，狂扔乱摔包裹物件”。国内快递公司 申通快递因此被国家邮政局罚款1万元人民币（相当于 大约四年之后，联合包裹服务公司（UPS）宣布“ 1500美元）26。 在亚太地区新建三家医疗配送设施，其中两家位于中国 的杭州和上海，使该集团的全球医疗配送专营机构总数 此后，政府对物流业的监管和惩罚越来越严 达到36个。”32 格：“2011年10月，某航班在大连周水子机场落地后发 生货物燃烧事件，随后（2012年11月）中国航空运输协 DHL在上海投入1.75亿美元建立北亚地区枢纽，预 会（中航协）宣布，四家中国物流企业因为存在安全漏 计将于2012年完工。33该公司目前在中国的总投资金额 洞而被列入禁飞名单。”27 已达3000万美元，在全国各地设有39个分公司和26个销 售办事处，其目标是到2015年建立90个分公司和销售办 这四家企业分别是上海圆通速递有限公司、上海韵 事处。34 达货运有限公司、上海汇行国际物流有限公司和上海启 昊货运代理有限公司。“在管理程序改进之前，四家企 TNT快递首席执行官玛丽•克里斯蒂•兰芭（Marie- 业必须暂停航空货运业务”。中航协的罚单显示，“上 Christine Lombard）预计，到2020年，中国的、快递市场 海圆通因未对货物（锂电池）进行核实并进行正确分类 规模将会相当于美国目前的市场规模——市场总值大约 而受罚，而其他公司则因为托运禁运危险易燃物品并导 为857亿美元。35 致起火而受罚。”27 尽管外国快递公司在中国可能会面临重大的经营问 在中航协开出史上最严罚单之时，正是中国国内 题和激烈的本土竞争，但是投资者对物流行业的发展越 快递企业竞争白热化的时候，“为了争夺国内航空快 来越乐观。 运市场，快递服务公司不得不加大投入，甚至购买自 己的飞机”27。 2013年9月，“美国私募股权投资公司凯雷投资 集团宣布，凯雷将携手美国房地产投资管理商汤森集 有些企业并不愿意等待国内快递服务业提高容量。 团，与中国的物流仓储物业开发商上海宇培集团建立 《华尔街日报》评论道，“随着越来越多中国人选择网 战略同盟，向中国17个现代化物流仓库投资4亿美元。 上购物，市场对仓储物流和包裹快递服务的需求，已经 这些仓库建成后，将为中国零售商和电子商务公司提 远远超越国内物流基础设施的发展速度” 28。 供租赁服务” 36。

单是电子商务巨头阿里巴巴一家公司，每天就产生份 2013年8月，凯辉私募股权投资基金及中法基金共 额极大的包裹快递服务。据报道，2012年，阿里巴巴“就 同完成对上海郑明现代物流有限公司的投资，投资总额 年内斥资1亿美元收购若干国内物流公司的股份展开谈判， 为1960万美元。郑明现代物流有限公司是中国的一家冷 其中包括一家仓储企业和一家包裹快递公司。” 28 链物流企业，为众多国内外知名企业运输食品，包括麦 当劳公司、中国蒙牛乳业有限公司和哈根达斯等。36 另外，阿里巴巴还“投入数十亿美元在全国范围 内建造仓储物流网络”，到2012年9月，该公司已经“ 一位私募基金公司总经理说，“成功的中国物流公 在天津、上海和广州买入三块地”，用于建设大型仓 司都拥有强大的供应链管理……所以私募股权公司投资 储设施。28 中国本地企业也是合理之举” 36。

169 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

no-French fund it manages invested $19.6 million in Shanghai tics companies, and the postal system is clearly affecting the law Zhengming Modern Logistics Co., which operates refrigerat- revision process,” and that “Under the current legislation mech- ed trucks in China that transport food for businesses includ- anism, departmental interests are hard, if not impossible, to re- ing McDonald’s Corp., China Mengniu Dairy Co and Haa- move from legislation.”38 gen-Dazs.”36 It has also been commented by industry players that both “Successful Chinese logistics firms have strong supply-chain domestic and international companies in the sector essentially management… so it makes sense for private-equity firms to back have to “compete with [their] regulator.”39 the local players,” said one private equity managing director.36 In April 2009 Chinese legislators released the final version In August 2015, a newsworthy development in China’s of the new Postal Law, which became effective on October logistics industry occurred when the National Development 1, 2009. Under the new regime, intra-city delivery of items and Reform Commission pledged to “guide private capital” to weighing less than 50 grams, and the inter-city delivery of items the logistics industry, which is “holding back economic growth”. weighing less than 100 grams will be handled exclusively by the In a statement to Xinhua, the NDRC said that “China’s overall state-owned monopoly, China Post.40 Foreign participants in logistics sector remains underdeveloped and the government the industry are furthermore prohibited from delivering letters will speed up construction on major projects as part of wider in the mainland at all, although they are still permitted to efforts to stabilize economic growth and push industrial deliver parcels domestically and both parcels and express letters restructuring”. By 2020, President Xi Jinping’s administration internationally41. aims to build a “modern logistics service system with annual This overt protection of the state monopoly is unsurprising growth of value added output of around 8 percent, accounting (if disappointing) given that domestic express delivery is a major for around 7.5 percent of the country’s GDP”, states the NDRC source of revenue for the State Post Bureau, which operates the document. 43 China Post monopoly—reportedly accounting for 96 billion Data from China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing yuan, or 43 percent of its total revenue in 200841. showed goods worth 104.7 trillion yuan (16.3 trillion U.S. dollars) were transported in the first half of the year. Between January and June, the gross revenue of the logistics industry hit 3.6 trillion yuan, up 5.4 percent over the same period last year.43

Notable Policy Activity*

Postal Law Reform Reform of the Postal Law began in 1998, and finally con- cluded 11 years later, in 2009. In 2005, China Daily noted that, “Although in its sixth draft, the postal law amendment is still moving slowly, with many non-postal service providers accusing the authority of fa- voritism towards the postal system,”37 referring to the fact that the body tasked with developing the revisions was, essentially, China Post itself. While the China Post Group Corp was established in Jan- uary of 2007 as part of the effort to divorce the business func- tions from the regulatory functions of the entity, sentiment reflects uncertainty about the lack of bias in the process.China Daily’s coverage of the launch went on to discuss the ongoing reform of the law, stating that, “The conflict of interest between non-postal service providers, such as express delivery and logis-

* Although it is no longer current, this section has been left intact to provide historical context to the discussion above.

170 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

2015年8月，中国物流业发生了一件值得广为报道的 这种公开的国家专营的做法并不令人意外（或者说失 事情。中国国家发展与改革委员会（发改委）下发通知， 望），因为国内快递是国家邮政总局主要的收入来源，而 承诺要“引领社会资本”投向物流业。通知还说，中国物 国家邮政总局对中国邮政有垄断经营权——据报道其份额 流业“已经成为制约国民经济发展的短板”。根据新华网 达960亿元，占其2008年总收入的43％。41 刊登的文件，国家发改委指出，“中国物流业总体发展水 平偏低，政府将加快推进现代物流重大工程建设，这对于 稳定经济增长，促进产业结构调整具有重要意义。”发改 委的通知文件明确表示，到2020年，习近平主席及其政府 将基本建成一个“现代物流服务体系，物流业增加值年均 增长8%左右，占国内生产总值的比重达到7.5%左右。43

根据中国物流与采购联合会的数据，2015年上半年 全国社会物流总额为104.7万亿元人民币（16.3万亿美 元）。1-6月全国物流业总收入达到3.6万亿元人民币，比 去年同期增长5.4%。43

重要政策变动【脚注】

《中华人民共和国邮政法》修订

《邮政法》的多次修订均引起了国内外业内人士 密切关注。《邮政法》从1998年开始修订，在11年 后，《邮政法》修订最终于2009年完成。

2005年，《中国日报》发表评论说，“虽然已经是 第六稿，修订邮政法的进程依然缓慢，非邮政服务提供 商纷纷指责政府偏袒邮政系统37”。而事实上，这次提 出修订的机构正是中国邮政。

2007年1月，在实行政企分开、加强政府监管的大背 景下，中国邮政进行了体制重组，成立了中国邮政集团 公司。当时有相关人士担心在重组过程中缺乏偏向性。 《中国日报》报道了集团公司的成立，并继续就对邮政 法的不断修订发表评论，认为“非邮政服务提供商，如 快递和物流公司，与邮政系统之间的利益冲突，显然影 响了法律的修改过程”，而且“在现行立法机制下，就 算有可能，部门利益也难以从立法过程中撤除”。38

业内人士也发表评论，认为无论是国内公司，还是外 国公司，实际上都要“与他们的邮政主管部门竞争”。39

2009年4月中国的立法部门发布了新的《邮政法》， 并于当年10月1日期生效。根据新的制度，同城快递50克 以下、异地快递100克以下归中国邮政专营40。因此，外 国的同行业无法进入在内地提供信件投递服务，但他们仍 然被允许在中国境内提供包裹服务以及国际信件快递41。

脚注：以下并非最新信息，仅为上文讨论提供完整的历史政策背景。

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Works Cited 13 “China Offers New Incentives to Logistics Industry.”China Briefing. August 24, 2011. http://www.china-briefing.com/ 1 “China’s Logistics Industry Booms” CRI. February 5, 2007. news/2011/08/24/china-offers-new-incentives-to-logistics- http://en.ce.cn/Industries/Transport/200702/05/ industry.html. t20070205_10325551.shtml. 14 Zheng Yangpeng. “China’s Airport Construction Takes Off.” 2 “物流业调整和振划.” The Central People’s Government of the China Daily. November 27, 2012. http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/ People’s Republic of China. March 13, 2009. http://www.gov.cn/ business/2012-11/27/content_15961834.htm. zwgk/2009-03/13/content_1259194.htm. 15 “Flurry of Chinese Plans to Build Aviation Hubs Raises 3 Jiang Xufeng. “China’s Logistics Sector on Track of Revival: Concern.” Reuters. September 15, 2013. http://www.reuters. Experts.” Xinhua. December 4, 2009. http://news.xinhuanet. com/article/2013/09/15/us-china-economy-airports- com/english/2009-12/04/content_12584928.htm. idUSBRE98E0GJ20130915.

4 Xin Yi. “Worst of Storm Over.” China Daily. October 26, 16 “Transport Newsletter, No. 40 Third Quarter 2008.” UNCTAD. 2009.http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2009-10/26/ 2008. http://www.unctad.org/Templates/Download.asp?docid=1 content_8845373.htm. 0775&lang=1&intItemID=1397.

5 “China Issues Guidelines to Promote Development of Logistics 17 Wang Ying. “China Southern to Join SkyTeam.” China Daily. June Industry.” Xinhua. August 19, 2011. http://news.xinhuanet.com/ 3, 2010. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-06/03/ english2010/china/2011-08/19/c_131062080.htm. content_9926846.htm.

6 “China’s Logistics Industry Sees Steady Growth.” Xinhua. November 18 Yao Jing. “Green Logistics faces rapid development in China.” 26, 2012. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012-11/26/ China Daily. April 16, 2011. http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/busi- content_15958218.htm. ness/2011-04/16/content_12338004.htm.Accessed November 11, 2011. 7 “China to Invest 6.2 Trillion Yuan in Transportation Sector Over Next Five Years.” Xinhua. May 26, 2011. http://news.xinhuanet. 19 James Flanigan. “Ports and Distribution Industry Surge Together.” com/english2010/china/2011-05/26/c_13895508.htm. The New York Times. September 20, 2007. http://www.nytimes. com/2007/09/20/business/smallbusiness/20edge.html. 8 Jeffrey Wong. “China’s 12th Five Year Plan: Transportation and Logistics.” KPMG China. April, 2011. http://www.kpmg.com/ 20 “China’s Logistics Industry Has New Demand.” China Daily. CN/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/ September 9, 2008. http://tradeinservices.mofcom.gov.cn/en/ China-12th-Five-Year-Plan-Transportation-Logistics-201104.pdf. i/2008-09-09/55427.shtml.

9 Cai Jin. “China Business Guide 2009 – The Logistic Industry.” The 21 The National Bureau of Statistics of China. “China Statistical Year- China Council for the Promotion of International Trade. 2009. book 2009.” China Statistics Press. Beijing, People’s Republic of China. 2009. 10 “China 2015: Transportation and Logistics Strategies.” A. T. Kearney. 2010. http://www.atkearney.com/images/global/pdf/ 22 “China’s H1 Logistical Expenses Up 18.5% Year-on-year .” China_2015.pdf. Xinhua. July 27, 2011. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/ china/2011-07/27/c_131013438.htm. 11 Yang Ning. “DHL urges greater efficiency for sector.”China Daily. November 11, 2010. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2010- 23 “你们准备好了么？——中国运输物流行业发展展望(2010- 11/11/content_11531458.htm. 2015).” A. T. Kearney Forum. 2010. http://forum.atkearney.cn/ download.php?id=PDF100726163116001. 12 “China announces stimulus plans for nonferrous metals, logistics.” Xinhua. February 25, 2009. http://news.xinhuanet.com/ 24 “China’s E-commerce Bumps on Logistics Shortfall.” China english/2009-02/25/content_10894891.htm. Daily. January 25, 2011. http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/ business/2011-01/25/content_11918536.htm.

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25 “China’s E-commerce Market ‘Faces Logistical Challenge’.” 37 Zong He. “Encourage Public Views of Laws.” China Daily. August Xinhua. November 11, 2012. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ 18, 2005. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005- business/2012-11/09/content_15900515.htm. 08/18/content_470113.htm.

26 Li Xinzhu. “Post Bureau Hands Down First Fine for Poor Parcel 38 “Allow Postal Competition.” China Daily. January 30, 2007. http:// Handling.” China Daily. January 31, 2011. http://www.chinadaily. www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2007-01/30/content_796255. com.cn/bizchina/2011-01/31/content_11944951.htm. htm.

27 He Wei. “Courier Firms Eye Air Cargo Expansion.” China 39 Tom Mitchell. “Concerns Over Chinese Postal Law.” Financial Daily. November 28, 2012. http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/ Times. August 5, 2007. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e74e8bb4- epaper/2012-11/28/content_15967286.htm. 438b-11dc-a065-0000779fd2ac.html.

28 Juro Osawa. “Alibaba Targets Logistics Investment.” The Wall 40 “Postal Delivery Reform Welcome.” China Daily. September Street Journal. September 9, 2012. http://blogs.wsj.com/ 17, 2009. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2009-09/17/ chinarealtime/2012/09/09/alibaba-targets-logistics-investment/. content_8700991.htm.

29 Chen LiMin “UPS Sees Strong Pickup in Asian Business.” China 41 Zhu Zhe. “Controversial Postal Law Gets Green Light.” China Daily. May 19, 2010. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/usa/2010- Daily. April 25, 2009. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2009- 05/19/content_11018938.htm. 04/25/content_7715591.htm.

30 “FDX New FedEx Asia Pacific Hub to Start Service in 09.” Sinocast 42 Pricewaterhouse Coopers and EBS Business School, Supply Chain via COMTEX. December 18, 2008. http://www.tradingmarkets. Management Institute. “Transportation and Logistics 2030 Series: com/.site/news/Stock%20News/2090700/. Emerging Markets”. 2010. https://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/ transportation-logistics/tl2030/emerging-markets/pdf/tl2030_ 31 “UPS to Move Asian Hub from Philippines to China.” DPA. May vol3_final.pdf 21, 2008. http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/world-news/ ups-to-move-asian-hub-from-philippines-to-china_10051230. 43 Xinhua. “China To Accelerate Logistics Network Construction.” html. Xinhuanet.com August 18, 2015. http://news.xinhuanet.com/ english/2015-08/14/c_134513763.htm 32 “UPS Expands Healthcare Logistics Network.” China Daily. October 26, 2012. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ business/2012-10/26/content_15849438.htm.

33 Lan Lan. “DHL Express Set to Beef Up Chinese Presence.” China Daily. September 28, 2010. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ business/2010-09/28/content_11357630.htm.

34 Wang Ying. “DHL Expands Service in West, Central China.” China Daily. September 21, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com. cn/usa/business/2011-09/21/content_13746308.htm.

35 Wang Ying. “TNT Looks to Make Inroads.” China Daily. July 8, 2011. http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/europe/2011-07/08/ content_12861875.htm.

36 Chao Deng. “Private-Equity Firms Bet on China’s Logistics Sector as Consumption Booms.” TheWall Street Journal. September 3, 2013.http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/09/03/private- equity-firms-bet-on-chinas-logistics-sector-as-consumption- booms/.

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2.5 Products Classified by Materials

hina’s rapid, continuing growth has indis- 107 million tons; nevertheless, research cited by China Daily Cputably fueled domestic demand for both raw and pro- suggested that overall volume would reach 1.85 billion* tons by cessed materials. While relative domestic scarcity of some ma- 2011.9 terials has led to import-driven markets, China continues to be This projection appears to have been met a year early, with self-sufficient in many categories. For example, in 2007 China the China Cement Association reporting total production of produced an estimated 1.3 billion tons of cement domestical- 1.88 billion in 2010—more than half the world’s total output.10 ly1—approximately half of the world’s total production—and The government’s increased investment in fixed assets is cited as has been the world’s largest producer of cement since 1985. In the major reason for the industry’s growth despite slowing ex- contrast, China has been a net-importer of rubber products, port demands and the rising costs of both labor and materials.11 with the total consumption of 5.5 million tons in 2006 out- Overcapacity in cement production, however, remains a stripping domestic production of only 2.3 million tons, with serious concern. Despite the fact that only two-thirds of China’s Thailand ranking as the top exporter to China.2 cement production capacity was utilized in 2008, investment Through the global economic slowdown, domestic con- in the sector grew by a staggering 67 percent in the first half of sumption (and production) of cement remained mostly insulat- 2009, following a 60 percent year-on-year increase to 105 billion ed from global trends due to continuing demand for construc- yuan in 2008.12 This reportedly led the Ministry of Industry tion in China. and Information Technology to release a “draft regulation on In the coming years, the best use of resources for cement the access threshold for the cement industry” in August last production will likely be achieved by continuing efficiency-re- year stipulating that the Ministry “will not approve new cement lated reforms; it is estimated that in 2006 cement production production lines in provinces where clinker output capacity accounted for total energy consumption equaling 131 million exceeds 1,000 kg per capita during 2011 to 2015” and that “it will tons of coal3—approximately 6.6 percent of an estimated 2.1 lift requirements [for] cement producer[s’] equity capital in new billion tons consumed in total4. Historically, inefficient oper- projects and raise the bottom line for daily production capacity.”12 ations, small-scale production and procedural issues have led All this took place after the NDRC had set out to eliminate 50 to low energy efficiency in domestic production, although new million tons of outdated capacity each year between 2007 and guidelines and regulations such as those promulgated in 20073 2010; a new announcement in 2009 indicated that another detailing new, higher standards for technology- and process-re- such program would be implemented to eliminate an additional lated energy efficiency will improve the yield of cement pro- 600 million tons of small vertical kiln capacity over three years duced per energy unit. These adjustments, detailed as far back between 2010 and 2012.13 It was not immediately clear how much as 2002, indicate that the replacement of plants producing #325 of this additional capacity was genuinely additional overcapacity cement with more efficient varieties would alone save approxi- and how much was the same targeted by the previous program mately 15 million tons of coal per year.5 but unsuccessfully eliminated. Figures reported by Xinhua Despite cement exports from China declining by nearly 13 indicated that 74.16 million and 91.55 million tons of inefficient percent in 20086, actual output reportedly grew by 5.2 percent production capacity were eliminated in 2009 and the first three to top 1.38 billion tons in 2008 and consumption was forecast- quarters of 2010, respectively.14 In 2011 further cuts to inefficient ed to grow by 6.3 percent in 2009.7 Later reports indicated that production capacity ordered by the Ministry of Industry and production had surpassed 1.65 billion tons that year the largest Information Technology amounted to 133 million tons.15 volume of any nation in the world.8 In 2010 an additional 300 million tons of obsolete capacity In 2010, the PRC government’s “[accelerated] phasing out were targeted for elimination in favor of dry process production of energy-wasting and outdated production capacity” (includ- by 2015, which is hoped to account for 90 percent of production ing the mandated closure of “700 polluting and energy-inten- at that time, 16 presumably putting a 133-million-ton dent in sive” plants) was reported to lower overall production by some that goal.

* We suspect there to have been a conversion error in the original China Daily article; although the original sentence reads the sentence reads “The country’s cement production was 163 million tons in 2009 and will stand at 185 million tons this year with China’s fixed assets investment and property market cooling down, ac- cording to the research,” these figures are strikingly small compared to other sources reports of PRC cement production (another source, for example, reported 1.38 billion tons produced in 2008). This, combined with the fact that this sort of conversion error from the 10,000-based “万” used when articulating large numbers in Chinese to the English format of counting by thousands is not uncommon, has led us to choose the value of 1.85 billion as most likely to be correct.]

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2.5 按材料分类产品

中国持续快速的经济增长无疑推动了国内对原材料 亿吨，占全球总产量一半以上。10虽然出口需求放缓， 和加工材料的需求。虽然国内某些材料相对来说比较缺 劳动力和原材料成本上升，水泥产业仍然实现增长，主 乏，形成以进口为主导的市场，但是中国有很多材料仍 要原因是政府加大了对固定资产的投资。11 能自给自足。例如，在2007年，中国国内生产了大约13 亿吨水泥1——约占世界总产量的一半——从1985年开始 尽管如此，水泥的产能过剩依然是个严重的问 中国稳居世界上最大水泥生产国地位。相反，在中国橡 题。2008年中国实际利用的水泥产能仅达三分之二， 胶制品都依赖进口。在2006年，中国共消费了550万吨 而该行业投资在2009年上半年惊人地增长了67％，上 橡胶制品，远远超过国内仅仅230万吨的生产量。泰国 一年度的增幅则为60％，达到1050亿元12。据报道，鉴 一直是向中国输出橡胶制品最多的国家。2 于这种情况工业和信息化部在去年八月发布了《水泥行 业准入条件（征求意见稿）》，指明“严格控制新建 虽然金融危机席卷全球，但是由于中国对建筑的需 水泥项目，2011至2015年间对水泥熟料年产能超过人均 求却持续增长，国内水泥消费（以及生产）似乎并没有 1000公斤的省份，一律停止核准新建水泥（熟料）生产 受到全球趋势的影响。 线项目”，同时，按照“‘等量淘汰’的原则核准，即 新上马的水泥项目必须是新型干法水泥生产线，且产能 展望未来，中国可以不断提高生产效率，最大限度 与淘汰的立窑、湿法窑等落后水泥产能保持一致”12。 地利用水泥生产的现有资源。据估计，在2006年，水泥 该意见稿在国家发改委确定2007年至2010年间逐年淘汰 生产所消耗的能源，相当于1.31亿吨煤3——约占煤炭21 5000万吨以下产能的决定后发布。2009年出台的一项新 亿吨总消耗量的6.6%6。一直以来，低效运转、小规模 通知表明，2010至2012三年间，将额外淘汰产能6亿吨 生产和程序问题，导致国内水泥生产能源效率低下。虽 的小立窑13。目前尚不清楚有多少这种额外产能实属过 然新出台的法律法规——例如2007年出台的相关法规3 剩产能，又有多少是此前计划所针对但尚未成功淘汰的 ，详细提出了与生产技术和过程相关的能源效率的更高 项目。新华网报道显示，2009年中国淘汰的效率低下产 标准，这些新方针新法规可以提高每能量单位的水泥产 能总量达到7416万吨，2010年前三个季度淘汰了9155万 量。早在2002年，有关部门就已经详细提出调整方针， 吨。142011年，中国工业和信息化部要求水泥行业进一 如果按照规定改造#325水泥生产工厂、多样化高效品 步削减效率低下产能，全年共淘汰落后产能1.33亿吨。15 种，仅此每年就能节省大约1500万吨煤。5 2010年，中国计划再淘汰3亿吨落后产能，鼓励使用 尽管中国的水泥出口量在2008年下降了近13％6， 干法水泥生产工艺。预计到2015年，干法生产在水泥生产 据悉水泥的实际产量在当年度增加5.2％，达到13.8亿 总量比重达到90%；16目前离该目标尚有1.33亿吨缺口。 吨；而消耗量预计在2009年将增加6.3％7。随后的报道 显示，2009年的水泥产量超过了16.5亿吨，在全世界名 在关闭规模小、效率低工厂后，为了协助整合巩固 列榜首。8 水泥行业，2010年9月，国务院公布指导方针，旨在促进 水泥行业内部的合并和收购17，并鼓励外国投资者参与 2010年，中央政府提出“加快淘汰高耗能和落后产 其中。18中央政府设定目标，在2015年前，国内十大水 能”（包括强制关闭“700家高污染、高耗能”工厂） 泥生产商所占市场总份额争取从目前的28%上升到45% 。 的指导方针，导致全年水泥生产总量降低约1.07亿吨。 但是，《中国日报》援引的调查数据指出，中国2011年 2011年年初，国内三家最大型的水泥生产企业（中 的水泥生产总量将达到18.5【脚注】亿吨。9 国建材集团、安徽海螺集团、中国中材集团）宣布扩大 产能计划，到2012年水泥产能分别达到3亿吨、3亿吨和 这个目标似乎一年前已经实现了。根据中国水泥协 1亿吨。19 会公布的数字，2010年中国的水泥生产总量已达到18.8

脚注：我们认为此处是《中国日报》原文出现了数据转译错误。报道原文的句子是“根据这份调查，中国2009年的水泥生产总量为1.63亿吨。 随着中国固定资产投资和房地产市场出现冷却，2010年的水泥生产总量可能达到1.85亿吨。”与其他媒体关于中国水泥生产总量的报道数 字相比，此文出现的数字差距非常大（例如另外一篇报道称2008年水泥生产总量为13.8亿吨）。事实上，中文较大数字的读写以“万”为基 础，而英文则以“千”为基础，所以在转换时出现这样的错误也并不少见。因此，我们认为18.5亿吨才可能是正确的数字。

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Presumably to assist in the planned consolidation of the A separate effort by the nation’s environmental ministry industry as smaller, more inefficient operations close, the State to “raise standards for the production of cement, batteries, Council issued guidelines in September 2010 aimed at promot- leather and heavy metals [in order to] to cut air, water and soil ing mergers and acquisitions within the cement industry,17 and pollution” was launched two months later and stands to make furthermore encouraged foreign investors to participate in the the lives of Chinese cement producers more interesting still process.18 The Central Government set the target to raise the should it be effectively enforced.23 total market share of the top-10 cement producers to more than Paper products are another area where China’s growth plac- 45 percent by 2015 from 28 percent currently. es it among the top producers in the world. According to some In early 2011, three of the largest producers nationally (Chi- analysts, in fact, it is the largest producer of paper in the world, na National Building Materials, Anhui Conch and Sino Mate- although their claim that the industry has “unlimited potential rials) announced their intent to expand their production capac- for growth” does invite some skepticism.24 ities to 300 million, 300 million and 100 million metric tons by Nonetheless, the China Paper Association reported that 2012, respectively.19 China’s production of paper products fully doubled between Consolidation and the elimination of excess, inefficient 1995 and 2005; furthermore, this growth has been attributed to capacity continues; a 2012 report from the NDRC indicated the use of high-tech manufacturing equipment and techniques that in 2011 an additional 155 million tons of clinker and mill rather than the liberal use of cheap labor and energy resources cement production capacity were eliminated, helping to curtail associated with other industries. While much of the financing CO2 emissions.20 of these projects has been domestic, foreign joint ventures and By the middle of 2012 total output growth was down to foreign technology has played a large role in the high efficien- 5 percent from a year prior—a decrease of fully 14.3 percent cy and productivity, as has the widespread reuse of waste paper year-on-year. According to Xinhua, “The sharp decrease came products.25 as economic slumps both at home and abroad have dampened According to Ministry of Commerce statistics, in 2009 market demands. The building material sector has been partic- there were 121 new foreign-invested projects in the paper ularly weighed down due to the government keeping real estate making industry (compared to 114 in 2008), with total utilized controls in place.”21 foreign capital reaching $1.8 billion (an increase of 17 percent In October 2013, the State Council issued a new plan to year-on-year)26. “tackle chronic overcapacity problems in sectors such as steel Similar to actions taken in the cement industry, 500,000 and cement by blocking approvals for new projects and by tons of production capacity was eliminated with the closure of making better use of the market,” the latest in the government’s inefficient operations.27 long line of measures to address the surprisingly-persistent In May 2011, the Ministry of Industry and Information problem.22 Reuters explains:22 Technology announced its intent for the industry to further eliminate outdated production capacity amounting to nearly The long-awaited plan, published by China’s cabinet, said 7.5 million tons (roughly 7.4 percent of the nation’s total pro- it would focus on “establishing and perfecting” market duction capacity) by the end of that year.28 mechanisms, marking a change of approach after years Meanwhile, a Deloitte report shows that local producers are spent trying to strong-arm the sectors into submission. actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions in order to expand their operations; the industry is so fragmented that the ten larg- It would also set higher environmental and quality stan- est producers have a cumulative market share of only 10 per- dards for industries and encourage the private sector to cent, compared to 60-70 percent in North America.29 play a role in restructuring oversized firms. Finally, plastics continue to be both an important and fast-growing sector, as well as one with relatively high partic- As well as blocking new approvals, the new plan will ipation by foreign-invested enterprises. The average growth seek to absorb overcapacity by stimulating domestic of the engineering plastic sector between 2000 and 2005, for demand, and will also offer tax incentives to encourage example was reported as 30 percent30—triple the growth of firms to relocate plants overseas. China’s GDP. Furthermore, as China continues to develop its high-tech and higher-value-added industries, the use of plastics, The previous approach sought to encourage giant state- molds and sophisticated manufacturing will certainly play an owned firms to merge or swallow up smaller competitors important role. but it was not successful, with industry experts The financial slowdown did not spare this resilient industry, complaining that the focus on strengthening SOEs had although prompt attention from the government in the form of served to raise capacity, rather than reduce it. the “Opinion of Central Committee and State Council on the

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此后，中国水泥行业继续巩固整合，并持续淘汰落 仅仅依靠使用廉价劳工和能源资源，而是归功于高科技 后产能。2012年，国家发改委公布数据显示，2011年全 生产设备和先进技术。虽然大多数生产项目都是在国内 国淘汰落后的熟料立磨水泥产能1.55亿吨，有助于减少 融资，但是中外合资公司和外国技术也在提高生产效率 二氧化碳排放量。20 和生产力上扮演了重要角色,推广废弃纸品再利用25。

至2012年年中，水泥行业总产值增速比上年同期 根据中国商务部数据，2009年中国造纸业新增121 大幅下降14.3%，降至5%。据新华网报道，“由于国 个外资项目（2008年为114个），实际利用外资总额达 内外经济衰退令市场需求疲软，导致增速出现大幅下 到18亿美元（同比增长17%）26。 跌。加上政府坚持加紧房地产调控，建筑材料行业发 展更受拖累。”21 与水泥行业采取的措施一样，造纸业也关闭效率低 下的工厂，淘汰落后产能共50万吨。27 2013年10月，中国国务院出台最新的指导意见，提 出要“严禁建设新增产能项目，充分利用市场的调节作 2011年5月，中国工业和信息化部要求造纸业进一 用，以解决钢铁、水泥等行业长期以来形成的产能过剩 步淘汰落后产能，预计到2011年年底淘汰落后产能共计 问题。”令人意外的是，中国政府多次采取措施处理产 750万吨（相当于全国造纸业产能总量的7.4%）。28 能过剩，但是这个问题似乎一直难以得到解决。22路透 社解释道： 与此同时，德勤会计师事务所报告显示，本土造纸 厂正积极进行并购活动，以扩大生产规模；造纸业市场 中国国务院公布的这份期待已久的意见表示， 相当零散，全国十大造纸企业所占的市场份额总和仅为 要集中精力“建立和完善”市场机制。多年以 10%，而北美则达到60-70% 。29 来，中国尝试各种强硬的方法化解各行业部门 的产能过剩，这次出台的意见提及“市场”的 最后，塑料制造业仍然保持快速增长，其重要地位 作用，意味着方法上的改变。 不言而喻。同时，塑料制造业也是外资公司参与度相对比 较高的行业。从2000年到2005年间，工程塑料制造业年 同时，该意见为各行业部门规定了更高的环保 平均增长速度达到30%30，是中国GDP年增长率的三倍。此 和质量标准，并鼓励非公有制企业参与大型企 外，中国在继续发展高科技、高附加值产业的进程中，塑 业的兼并重组。 胶、模具和先进制造技术的应用必定会发挥重要作用。

除了严禁建设新增产能外，新规定也希望通过 然而，经济放缓还是给这一弹性行业制成了一道 拉动国内需求来消化过剩产能，并提供税收优 坎。但根据中国轻工业联合会的信息，政府及时出台《 惠，鼓励企业把工厂搬迁到海外。 中共中央国务院关于促农业发展农民增收若干意见》、 《轻工业调整和振兴规划》，调整增值税和出口退税， 以前政府通过鼓励大型国有企业合并或者吞并 为中国塑料制造企业抵御金融危机提供了保护31。 规模较小的竞争对手来化解产能过剩，但是事 实证明这种方法并不成功。各行业专家纷纷抱 随后，中国工业和信息化部公布行业经济统计数 怨，加强国有企业建设实际上是提高了产能， 据显示，2009年全国塑料工业平均实现了两位数增速32 而不是降低产能。22 。2010年上半年，中国塑料产品总产量同比增长20%，达 到4480万吨33；与此同时，塑料产品和合成树脂产量达 34 两个月之后，中国环境保护部发布相关文件，“提 到2100万吨，比上年同期增长23% ；对塑料工业的投资 35 高水泥、电池、皮革和重金属的生产标准，以减少对空 总额达到11亿元人民币，比上年同期大约增长27% 。 气、水和土壤的污染”。如果这些标准能够切实执行， 中国水泥生产商将会受到较大的影响，可能导致行业格 虽然中国塑料行业总产值有所增长，但是泰国国家 局出现重大调整。23 创新局和德国诺瓦研究所（Nova Institute）的一份调查 指出，“中国生物基聚乳酸（PLA）树脂产量在2007- 纸类产品是中国另一个增长速度居世界前列的行 2011年间‘大幅减少’，主要因为中国企业在乳酸原料 36 业。部分分析师认为中国实际上是世界最大的纸张生产 的质量上不过关，而乳酸是构成PLA的主要成分。” 国，尽管他们声称的该行业拥有“无限增长潜力”，确 实遭到质疑24。 因此，“中国的PLA出口量从2007年的4400吨大幅 减少至2009年的237吨，在2010年和2011年仍然停留在 根据中国造纸协会数据，2005年中国纸类产品产量 低水平。受此驱使，中国的PLA进口量从2007年底1200 36 至少比1995年翻了一番。而且，如此快速的增长并不是 吨增至2011年的4000吨。”

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steady agriculture development and continuously increase the Notable Policy Activity yield for farmer,” the “Light industry restructuring and revital- ization plan,” VAT reform and export tax rebate adjustments all Guidance on Cement Production helped shield Chinese producers from the brunt of the crisis, Published by the Ministry of Construction of the PRC on according to the China National Light Industry Council (CN- November 14, 2007 and effective May 1, 2008, “Energy-saving LIC).31 Standards for Cement Manufacturing Plant” (National Stan- It was later reported by the Ministry of Industry and In- dard No. GB50443-2007) outlines many guidelines for ener- formation Technology that the plastics industry grew by dou- gy-saving steps in the manufacturing of cement, some of which ble-digits on average in 2009,32 and in the first half of 2010 total are compulsory. output of plastic products grew by 20 percent year-on-year to China’s cement production capacity has historically been reach 44.8 million tons.33 Meanwhile, output of plastics and concentrated in small plants using older technologies and, as synthetic resins arrived at 21 million tons after growing 23 per- a result, being relatively inefficient energy consumers in terms cent in the same period,34 and investment in the sector grew by of overall output. The use of more efficient technologies, -com nearly 27 percent to reach 1.1 billion yuan in roughly the same bined with the closure of smaller, older plants in favor of high- period.35 er-volume operations, utilizing better technology will likely Even if the industry grew in total, research conducted by contribute to energy savings and the reduction of overall en- Thailand’s National Innovation Agency and Nova Institute vironmental impact while maintaining or increasing overall GmbH found that “Chinese PLA resin production volumes production. This is consistent both with the overall targets in ‘collapsed’ between 2007 and 2011, as companies there had the 11th 5-year Plan to improve energy efficiency by 20 percent problems with the quality of their lactic acid, a key building over a five year timeline and also the intended move away from block of PLA.”36 highly energy-intensive manufacturing. Accordingly, “Chinese exports of PLA dropped from 4,400 This guidance likely led to the following item, new entry re- metric tons in 2007 to 237 metric tons in 2009, and remained quirements for companies looking to produce cement. at those low levels in 2010 and 2011. That has boosted Chinese imports of PLA from about 1,200 metric tons in 2007 to 4,000 New Entry Criteria for the Cement Industry metric tons [in 2011].”36 In November 2010, the Ministry of Industry and Infor- The plastics industry has also turned to modified plastics mation Technology (MIIT) announced revisions to the entry in an attempt to become more sustainable. Current estimates criteria for the cement industry, which became effective on Jan- place 75 percent of the Chinese market for modified plastics uary 1, 2011. with foreign-invested enterprises. Domestic demand for such The revisions stipulated that: materials exceeded 5 million tons in 2010 and is forecasted to reach 10.4 million tons by 2015.37 1. Production lines of cement clinker shall adopt a new dry Finally, the emergence of shale gas resources in both the United process method; States as well as China have buoyed the outlook for plastics man- 2. Production scale of cement clinker shall reach 4,000 tons ufacturers in both nations. According to a Plastics News-quoted per line each day. For underdeveloped areas where trans- analyst based in Houston, Texas, China is likely to move quickly port facilities and market capacities are limited, scale re- in capitalizing on newly-discovered shale gas reserves “because quirement shall be minimum 2,000 tons per line per day; [the Chinese] need new energy sources very fast.”38 3. Self-possessed fund shall account for minimum 35 per- Although new investments valued at more than $16 billion cent of the total investment in the building, rebuilding, are expected in the U.S. aimed at exploiting local shale gas de- expanding and moving of cement clinker; posits, “Chinese investment is not likely to be immediate,” in 4. Projects that fail to meet these standards shall not be ap- part due to the fact that “China’s most-studied shale gas fields proved by authorities.39 are generally also located in the far northwest of the country, where it is costly to bring it to sizable markets either within Chi- Rising Power Tariff Surcharges for Energy-inefficient Production na or internationally.”38 In May 2010, an NDRC plan to raise power tariff surcharg- Beyond energy applications, the gas’ use as a plastic es for energy-inefficient industry went into effect, whereby manufacturing feedstock looks to be gaining popularity in the “Local governments must cancel any favorable power prices to United States and is expected to see similar gains in China as energy-intensive firms, including preferential rates in the name investments and production capacity increase.38 of direct trade between power generators and power users.”40 This plan was actually first put into practice in 2006, accord- ing to Xinhua, but that “in order to stimulate their struggling

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为更好地实现可持续发展，塑料制造业开始把注意 该条件规定： 力转向改性塑料。目前，外资企业估计占据了中国改性 塑料75%的市场份额。2010年，中国对改性塑料需求量 1. 新建水泥（熟料）生产线要采用新型干法生产工 超过500万吨，预计2015年达到1040万吨。37 艺；

最后，目前中美两国都在积极开发页岩天然气资 2. 单线建设要达到日产4000吨级水泥熟料规模，经 源，因两国塑料制造企业对行业发展前景更加乐观。 济欠发达、交通不便、市场容量有限的边远地区 美国《塑料新闻》报社驻德克萨斯州休斯顿市的行业 单线最低规模不得小于日产2000吨级水泥熟料； 分析员认为，中国已经发现大量页岩资源储量，政府 3. 投资水泥（熟料）新、改、扩、迁建项目自有资 可能会加快融资投入勘探工作，“因为中国急切需要 本金的比例不得低于项目总投资的35%； 使用新能源。”38 4. 对不符合准入条件的项目，投资和工业主管部门 据估计，美国将会投资超过160亿美元用于勘探页 不得核准。39 岩天然气储量，但是“中国政府不太可能马上投资页岩 气”，部分原因是“中国专家发现的页岩气田大部分分 对超能耗产品实行惩罚性电价 布在中国西北地区，无论是开采还是大范围供应于国内 外市场，都需要付出高昂的成本。”38 2010年5月，国家发改委对超耗能产品实行惩罚性电 价的计划开始施行，提出“政府必须取消对高耗能企业 除了作为能源供应之外，美国越来越多企业选择 的用电价格优惠，禁止未经批准以电力用户与发电企业 页岩气作为塑料制造业原料。随着页岩气投资加大， 直接交易的名义变相对高耗能企业提供优惠电价”。40 产能上升，中国塑料制造企业也会选择页岩气作为原 料供给。38 据新华社报道，该计划原定于2006年开始实施， 但“自2008年11月以来，为了应对国际金融危机，很多 重要政策变动 西部地区省市政府对本地区高耗能企业实行了不同幅 度、不同方式的优惠电价。”40

规范水泥生产 进一步调整出口退税

2007年11月14日，中华人民共和国建设部公布了 根据中国商务部的消息，为了减少高污染、高耗能 《水泥工厂节能设计规范》（国家标准GB50443-2007） 产品的出口，从2010年7月15日起，取消406个税号（包 ，2008年5月1日开始施行。《水泥工厂节能实际规范》 括一些塑料制品）的产品出口退税。根据中欧各国商务 概括了很多关于在水泥生产过程中如何节能的指导方 部了解，由于所涉及的产品大约只占产品总数的1%，这 针，其中有一部分是规定厂商执行的。 次出口退税调整预计不会大幅度影响整体出口总额。41

在过去，中国的水泥生产主要集中于使用老旧生产 关于进口PET整瓶的新规定 技术的小工厂，因此，从总产量看来，中国的水泥生产 在能量消耗上效率相对较低。使用更加高效的技术，选 2010年10月份，中国政府发布了PET整瓶进口新规 择产量更高的生产商，关闭技术落后的小工厂，将有助 定（例如装软饮料的瓶子）。在此之前，政府规定聚对 于节省能源、减少对环境的总体影响，同时也能维持， 苯二甲酸乙二醇酯（PET）瓶必须经过特定处理之后才 甚至增加总产量。这既与“十一五”计划里提高能源 可以进口，并禁止进口PET瓶成品。42 效率的总体目标相一致——即在五年内把能源效率提高 20%，而且符合摆脱高耗能制造模式的要求。 新规定“要求进口商必须建有再生工厂，拥有再生 塑料进口有效执照，且位于专门的再生区域，在过去三 此方针引出以下针对观望水泥行业的公司的水泥行 年里每年的进口量至少达到1万吨。”42 业准入新条件。 据《塑料新闻》观察，“由于新规定可能对全球再 水泥行业准入新条件 生流产生影响，而且可能使中国已经颇为庞大的PET瓶 进口规模进一步扩大。这一规定的出台受到全球的密切 2010年11月，中国工业和信息化部就水泥行业准入 关注。以美国为例，在过去四年里，美国每年回收的再 条件发布公告。《水泥行业准入条件》自2011年1月1日 生PET瓶有超过半数出口到中国。”42 起实施。

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economy at the height of the global financial crisis, some pro- tation and reliance on low-tech production methods has led vincial governments, mainly in west China, started to find ways to a proliferation of small, inefficient facilities which may have to subsidize energy-intensive enterprises in November 2008.”40 little or no environmental oversight. According to one plastic recycling executive, “Many of the recycling plants are operated Further Tax Rebate Changes by farmers, using simple technology, and are not safe places to Beginning July 15, 2010, exports of 406 items (including work.” and that “’99 percent’ of China’s scrap plastics compa- some plastic products) would no longer receive export tax re- nies do not have equipment to properly clean the water they use funds, in a move to discourage the export of highly-polluting in their factories.”45 and energy-inefficient goods. According to the Ministry of Major goals of the new regulation appears to be the con- Commerce, this change was not expected to substantially affect solidation of recycling operations into ‘campuses’ which will overall export volume as the goods in question accounted for feature more sophisticated waste treatment facilities and man- roughly one percent of the total.41 agement to limit the process’ negative environmental impact. Such consolidation would carry with it the additional benefit Rules for Importing Whole PET bottles of easier regulation and oversight of the trade.44 In October 2010, the Chinese government issued new regu- lations regarding the import of whole polyethylene terephthal- A 2014 report by the Tokyo Foundation outlines China’ ate (PET) bottles (such as those used for soft drinks). Previous- plans for the recycling and urban mining sector and how these ly, such imports were required to have been processed in some developments could be key drivers for economic growth in its way and the import of whole bottles was forbidden.42 interior provinces. According to the report, “in May 2010, Chi- The new rules “require that importers have existing facilities na’s National Development and Reform Commission and the and a current license to import recycled plastic, that they be lo- Ministry of Finance announced a plan to develop pilot urban cated in a district designated for recycling and have imported mining facilities in 30 cities within five years—with financial at least 10,000 metric tons of material in each of the last three assistance being provided by the central and regional govern- years.”42 ments—to obtain reusable resources from junked electrical and Plastics News observes that “The issue has been closely electronic appliances. Seven newly developed industrial parks watched for its potential impact on recycling streams world- were identified as the first group of such facilities: Tianying wide, and for its potential to increase China’s already significant Recycling Economic Park in Jieshou, Anhui; Ziya Circular imports of PET. The country, for example, has taken more than Economy Industrial Park in Tianjin; Jintian Industrial Park in half of the recycled PET bottles collected in the United States Ningbo, Zhejiang; Miluo Industrial Park in Hunan; Huaqing for each of the last four years.”42 Circular Economy Park in Qingyan, Guangdong; Jinmai Indus- trial Park in Qingdao; and the Southwest Resource Recycling Plan for Expanded Ban on Free Plastic Bags Industrial Park in Sichuan. The target is for the seven to recycle Since the implementation of the ban on complimentary 1.9 million tons of copper, 800,000 tons of aluminum, 350,000 plastic bags at retail locations in 2008, plastic bag usage has re- tons of lead, and 1.8 million tons of plastic by 2015. Another portedly dropped by two-thirds. To further reduce the use of 15 sites have already been earmarked for phase two of the urban plastic bags, the Ministry of Commerce has published a new mining initiative.” regulation for public feedback that would extend the ban to in- On September 22, 2008, the report says, “the Neijiang mu- clude restaurants, hospitals and book stores.43 nicipal government in southwestern China and China Recy- cling Development Co., the largest resource recycling company Increased Regulatory Supervision of Plastic Recyclers in the country, reached agreement on the construction of the A round of new attention from environmental regulators on Southwest Recycling base, and on November 14 they signed the plastic recycling trade has led the Ministry of Environmen- a contract calling for an initial investment of 3.4 billion yuan tal Protection to issue the “Imported Waste Plastics Environ- to develop a recycling park spanning 3.3 square kilometers to mental Protection Regulation.”44 function as the core facility for the recycling base.The base is According to Plastics News, “The new regulation will set a a colossal project that will make it the largest recycling center market entry barrier, which is 4,000 square meters of site area in the southwest, comprising a market covering some 53.3 km2 and 5,000 metric tons of annual processing capacity.” The regu- and another area for the deep processing of recycled resourc- lation also “divides the 1,600 or so companies [operating in the es covering 26.7 km2. The core recycling park is being built in industry] into four categories and raises certain requirements three phases over five years and is scheduled for completion for each category.”44 in 2015. The first phase focused on an area covering 53 hect- Like many industries in China, a certain degree of fragmen- ares and investment of 912 million yuan to develop facilities

182 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

计划扩大对免费塑料袋的禁令范围 据该报告介绍，2008年9月22日，“位于中国西南 部的内江市政府和中国最大的资源回收企业中国再生资 2008年中国开始禁止零售商免费提供塑料袋，自此 源开发有限公司（CRD）达成协议，将在内江市建设 之后，有报道称塑料袋使用量减少了三分之二。为了进 西南再生资源产业基地，并于11月14日签订合约，决定 一步减少塑料袋的使用，中国商务部公布了最新的征求 投资34亿元，打造占地面积达到3.3平方公里的循环产 意见稿，广泛征求民众意见，考虑是否把餐厅、医院和 业园，使其成为整个再生资源产业基地的核心设施。西 书店纳入“限塑”范围。43 南再生资源产业基地项目规模巨大，是中国西南地区最 大的循环产业中心，所覆盖的市场面积达到53.3平方公 加强塑料回收加工业监管 里，还包括一个面积为26.7平方公里的回收资源深度加 工区域。核心循环产业园区计划在五年内分三期建成， 环境监管部门一直对塑料回收加工行业保持密切关 预计于2015年完工。第一期规划用地53公顷，投资9.12 注。最近，中国国家环保部发布《进口废塑料环境保护 亿元，建成一个集回收分拣、集散交易、示范加工、物 管理规定》，进一步规范塑料回收加工管理。44 流配送、污染治理、管理培训、科技研发、公共服务等 诸多功能于一体的再生资源循环利用产业示范区。第二 据《塑料新闻》报道，“新规定对加工利用企业设 期规划用地26.5公顷，投资5.15亿元，重点建设一个材 定基本准入门槛，即厂区面积不低于4000平方米，每年 料改性深度加工项目。第三期规划用地253公顷，投资20 加工利用能力不低于5000吨。”同时，新规定“把所有 亿元，将重点扩大园区的资源聚集量和深度加工能力。 利用废塑料加工利用企业分为四个类别，对四类企业分 别提出相应的要求。”44 中国再生资源开发有限公司是中国最大的循环回收 企业，于1989年在国务院的支持下成立。东京财团的报告 与中国很多行业一样，塑料回收加工业经营较为 称，除了内江市之外，该公司“在全国各地都设有基地， 分散，并且严重依赖技术含量较低的生产方法，所以 包括广东省清远市、河南省洛阳市、江苏省常州市、山东 该行业存在很多规模较小、效率低下的生产企业， 省临沂市、宁夏会自治区银川市、河北省唐山市和陕西省 缺乏甚至没有环境污染防治措施。某塑料回收加工企 西安市，在黑龙江省和江西省也建有回收设施。 业的一名高管表示，“很多回收加工厂是由农民经营 的，他们只会使用简单的工艺，工人的工作环境也不 该报告还指出，在中国，循环回收行业牌照很难 安全”，而且“中国99%的废塑料加企业都没有清洁工 获批，牌照的下发仅限于省级单位，数量有限。所以， 厂用水的设备。”45 在中国循环回收市场，中国再生资源开发有限公司一家 独大，其他小型回收企业零散分布，不成体系。该报告 政府出台新规定的主要目标是把回收加工行业集中 说，中国再生资源开发有限公司的基地遍布全国，这“ 在“园区”加强管理。园区拥有更加先进的污水处理设 说明该公司完全拥有国家的扶持。” 备和管理措施，可以减少加工过程对环境带来的负面影 响。集中园区管理也便于政府调控和监督塑料回收加工 根据这份报告，“内江市无疑是希望邀请中国最大 行业。44 的企业落户本市，以规范当地的循环回收业发展。根据 规划，位于牛棚子的循环产业园可实现年聚集各类城市 东京财团2014年的一份报告介绍了中国循环回收和 矿产资源185万吨，其中废旧机电和电子设备200万件， 城市矿产业的建设规划，以及该行业的发展将会如何推 报废汽车5万辆。照此规模，该行业将有望实现产值100 动内陆省份的经济增长。该报告称，“2010年5月，中 亿元，产生2亿元利润和19亿元税收，并为2万人创造就 国国家发展与改革委员会和财政部下发通知，在中央政 业机会。” 府和地方政府的财政支持下，国家计划用五年时间在全 国30个城市建成城市矿产示范基地，从废旧机电设备和 中国的“篱笆” 电子产品等废品中获取可重复使用的资源。目前共有七 个新开发的工业园区被列为第一批“城市矿产”示范基 2013年2月，中国“宣布不再轻易接受外国出口商 地：安徽省界首田营循环经济工业区、天津市子牙循环 草率分类、夹杂着各类杂质的可回收废料。中国的这一 经济产业区、浙江省宁波市金田产业园、湖南省汨罗循 行动令全球废品回收市场震惊不已。”46 环经济工业园、广东省清远市华清循环经济园、青岛市 新天地静脉产业园和四川省西南再生资源产业园区。到 这一政策的执行被称为“绿篱行动”。据报道，自 2015年，这七家示范基地将形成年加工利用再生铜190 从“绿篱行动”启动以来，中国在七个月内已经将80多 万吨、再生铝80万吨、再生铅35万吨、废塑料180万吨 万吨可回收废料或废物拒之门外。在此期间，中国海关 的能力。目前有15个城市已经被列入城市矿产规划第二 官员实施严格检查，使247家公司的进口许可证被暂停 批示范基地名单。 使用。46

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for retrieving and sorting scrap materials, trading, processing, Works Cited distribution and shipping, anti-pollution measures, waste management training, scientific and technological research 1 “U.S. Geological Survey Mineral Commodity Summaries, January and development, and public services. Phase two involved the 2008.” U.S. Geological Survey. http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/ construction of a 26.5 ha deep processing area at a cost of 515 pubs/commodity/cement/mcs-2008-cemen.pdf. million yuan. And phase three, covering 253 ha and costing 2 billion yuan, will expand the park’s resource-retrieval and 2 “China’s Rubber Consumption to Grow Over 10 Percent This Year.” deep-processing capabilities.” People’s Daily. January 6, 2006 http://english.peopledaily.com. China Recycling Development, China’s top recycling cn/200601/06/eng20060106_233283.html. company, was founded with State Council backing in May 1989. In addition to Neijiang, the report says, the company “has bases 3 Wan Zhihong. “Industry Gets New Guidelines.” China all over the country, including Qingyuan, Guangdong Province; Daily. November 15, 2007. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ Luoyang, Henan Province; Changzhou, Jiangsu Province; Linyi, bizchina/2007-11/15/content_6256056.htm. Shandong Province; Lingwu, Yinchuan in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region; Tangshan, Hebei Province; Xian, Shaanxi 4 “Coal Supply Sufficient for 2006 Demand.”Xinhua. Province; and facilities in Heilongjiang and Jiangxi Provinces.” November 30, 2005. http://sg2.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/ The report points out that recycling permits in China are chinanews/200511/20051100920034.html. difficult to obtain, issued only in limited numbers on a provincial basis, which accounts for the pseudo-monopoly of CRD and 5 Mason H. Soule, Jeffrey S. Logan, and Todd A. Stewart. “Trends, fragmentation of smaller players. That CRD has national Challenges, and Opportunities in China’s Cement Industry.” coverage, says the report, “is proof that it has full state approval.” March 2002. The World Business Council for Sustainable Devel- According to the report, “Neijiang no doubt hoped opment. to formalize the sector by inviting one of China’s leading companies to the city. Plans call for the recycling park in 6 Tong Hao. “China’s Cement Exports Down 12.91% in 2008.” Niupengzi to recycle 1.85 million tons of resources a year from China Daily. April 1, 2009. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ 2 million electrical and electronic devices and 50,000 scrapped bizchina/2009-04/01/content_7640144.htm. automobiles. This, it is hoped, should generate sales of 10 billion yuan and profits of 200 million yuan, creating 1.9 billion yuan 7 Zheng Lifeng. “China’s Cement Consumption Expected to in tax revenue and jobs for 20,000 people.” Grow 6.3% in 2009.” China Daily. March 2, 2009. http://www. chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2009-03/02/content_7527574.htm. China’s “Green Fence” China “sent shock waves through the global recycling mar- 8 “Eliminate Outdated Capacity, A Tough Fight in Cement Industry.” ket [in February 2013] when it announced it would no longer Cement Tech. http://www.cementtech.org/en/shownews. be accepting poorly sorted or dirty shipments of recyclable asp?id=185. waste from foreign exporters.”46 Enforcement of the new policy, dubbed “Operation Green 9 Liu Yiyu “Large Cement Companies Set to Cash In.” China Daily. Fence,” reportedly led to the rejection of “800,000 tons of re- August 10, 2010. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/usa/2010- cyclables or scrap” in its first seven months. During that time, 08/10/content_11130318.htm. “customs officials [conducted] rigorous checks have suspended the import licenses of 247 companies.”46 10 Meng Jing. “Anhui Conch is Going Global to Boost Output.” The revocation of those licenses is expected to “force smaller China Daily. November 3, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ outfits out of business, making environmental regulation easier usa/business/2011-11/03/content_14028496.htm. for the government.”46 Whereas “China’s demand for low-cost recycled raw 11 “China Cement Output Up 19.6% in H1.” Xinhua. August 3, materials has meant waste shipments from Europe, the US, Japan 2011.http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011- and Hong Kong arrived thick and fast, with scrap becoming 08/03/c_131027337.htm . the top US export to China by value ($11.3bn) in 2011,”46 the new policy appears to have motivated American and European 12 “China to Rein in Cement Overcapacity.” China Cement. industry players to explore more extensive recycling operations August 26,2009.http://www.cementchina.net/news/shownews. on their home turfs. As a result, say some executives, China may asp?id=6051. have sparked a new wave of innovation in the industry47

184 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

撤销违规企业的进口许可证，将会“迫使规模较小 的作坊破产倒闭，让政府更容易进行环境监管。46”

“中国对低成本再生原材料的需求，意味着大量 来自欧洲、美国、日本和香港的废物可以迅速运送到中 国。按价值来算的话，在美国2011年对华出口的商品 中，废物的总价值最高（113亿美元）。”46但是，在中 国这条政策的刺激下，美国和欧洲的废品回收企业开始 在本国探索更全面的回收处理技术。因此，有些企业高 管说，中国的做法可能在废品回收业引发了新一轮创新 风潮。47

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13 “China to Phase Out 600 mln Tonnes Backward Cement Capacity 25 “China’s Pulp and Paper Industry: What Low-cost Labor Advan- in 3 Yrs.” China Cement. November 2, 2009. http://www. tage?.” Presented by Robert Flynn, Wood Resources International. cementchina.net/news/shownews.asp?id=6373. January 18-20, 2006.

14 “China Promises to Exhaust All Means to Meet Emission Reduction 26 “The Survey of Foreign Investment in China’s Papermaking Indus- Goal.” Xinhua. September 14, 2010. http://news.xinhuanet.com/ try in 2009.” Invest in China. October 28, 2010. http://www.fdi. english2010/china/2010-09/14/c_13494507.htm. gov.cn/pub/FDI_EN/Economy/Sectors/Manufacturing/Paper- making/t20101028_127769.htm. Accessed February 3, 2011. 15 “China Sets 2011 Targets for Elimination of Outdated Industrial Facilities: MIIT.” Xinhua. May 10, 2011.http://news.xinhuanet. 27 “Full Text: Report on China’s National Economic, Social Development com/english2010/business/2011-05/10/c_13868306.htm. Plan.” Xinhua. March 16, 2010. http://news.xinhuanet.com/ english2010/china/2010-03/16/c_13212790_4.htm. 16 “China to Eliminate 300 mln Tons of Cement Capacity in 3 years.” China Cement. April 9, 2010. http://www.cementchina.net/ 28 Ben Yue. “Paper Making Industry to Close 7% Output in 2011.” news/shownews.asp?id=7011. China Daily. May 17, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ bizchina/2011-05/17/content_12526541.htm. 17 “Chinese Auto Sector Gears Up.” China Daily. November 2, 2010. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/m/hangzhou/e/2010-11/02/ 29 Compass 2011- Global forest, Paper, and Packaging Sector Outlook. content_11495272. htm. Deloitte. 2011. http://www.deloitte.com/assets/Dcom-Global/ Local%20Assets/Documents/Manufacturing/dttl_%202011%20 18 “Chinese Cement Sector Gets Integration Boost.” China Cement. Forest%20Paper%20Packaging%20Outlook_1_27_11.pdf. April 16, 2010. http://www.cementchina.net/news/shownews. asp?id=7050. 30 Dai Zhongrao. “Status Quo and Development Trend of China Plastic Industry.” The China Plastic Machine Industry Association. 2006. 19 Banny Lam. “Top Cement Makers to Gain from Consolidation.” China Daily. February 8, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ 31 “2009年国家产业扶持政策及对塑料行业的影响.” hkedition/2011-02/08/content_11963397.htm. CLII. July 8, 2009. http://plastic.clii.com.cn/news/show. asp?showid=266645. 20 “China Curbs CO2 Emissions Through Industrial Restructuring.” Xinhua. November 22, 2012. http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/ 32 “2009年我国塑料制品业产量产值均达到两位数增长.” The business/2012-11/22/content_15951473.htm. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People’s Republic of China. January 25, 2010. 21 “China’s Cement Output Growth Drops Sharply.” Xinhua. June 25, 2012. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-06/25/ 33 “China Plastic Products and Modified Plastics Market Report, content_15520337.htm. 2009.” Research in China. http://www.researchinchina.com/ Htmls/Report/2010/5846.html. 22 David Stanway. “China to Ban New Projects, Strengthen Market in New Overcapacity Plan.” Reuters. October 15, 2013. http:// 34 “China Plastic and Plastic Products Industry Statistics, 2009-2010.” www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/15/us-china-overcapacity- Research in China. http://www.researchinchina.com/Htmls/ idUSBRE99E05620131015. Report/2010/5946.html.

23 “China Targets Cement, Batteries, Metals in Anti- 35 “Investment in Fixed Assets by Industry (2010.01-08).” Invest in China. Pollution Push.” Reuters. December 27, 2013. http:// October 11, 2010. http://www.fdi.gov.cn/pub/FDI_EN/Economy/ www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/27/us-china-pollution- Investment%20Environment/Macro-economic%20Indices/ idUSBRE9BQ09420131227. Population%20&%20GDP/Other/t20101011_127169.htm.

24 “2010-2015年中国造纸行业投资分析及前景预测报告.” 36 Steve Toloken. “Asia to top PLA capacity by 2020.” Plastics News. OCN.http://www.ocn.com.cn/reports/2006080zaozhi.htm. October 23, 2012. http://www.plasticsnews.com/china/english/ Accessed February 2, 2010. business/headlines-arc2.html?id=1350873755.

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37 Laura Wood. “Research and Markets: China Plastic Products and 48 Kenji Someno. “Recycling and Economic Growth in China’s Interi- Modified Plastics Market Report, 2011.” June 8, 2011. http:// or.” Views on China, The Tokyo Foundation. July 31, 2014.http:// www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/08/idUS83732+08-Jun- www.tokyofoundation.org/en/articles/2014/recycling-in-chi- 2011+BW20110608. na-interior

38 Steve Toloken. “China Plastics Sector Poised to Capitalize On Shale Gas.” Plastics News. October 23, 2012. http://www. plasticsnews.com/china/english/business/headlines-arc2. html?id=1350791961.

39 “New Entry Criteria for Cement Industry.” 中国水泥网. December 3,2011.http://www.cementchina.net/news/shownews. asp?id=8163.

40 “China scraps preferential power rates for energy-intensive firms.” Xinhua. August 6, 2010. http://news.xinhuanet.com/ english2010/china/2010-08/06/c_13433648.htm.

41 “Removal of Tax Rebates Not Expected to Cause Export Slump.” Xinhua. June 224, 2010. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/ china/2010-06/24/c_13367664.htm.

42 Steve Toloken. “China Issues Rules for Importing Whole PET Scrap Bottles.” Plastics News. November 8, 2010. http://www. plasticsnews.com/headlines2.html?id=20262.

43 Zheng Jingran.”Ban On Free Plastic Bags Paying Off.”China Daily. May 28, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011-05/28/ content_12597526.htm.

44 Nina Ying Sun. “Industry Players Respond to China’s New Recycling Policy.” Plastics News. September 25, 2012. http:// www.plasticsnews.com/china/english/business/headlines-arc2. html?id=1348604356.

45 Steve Toloken. “Waste Plastic Imports Drop in Guangdong as China Gets Tough with Recyclers.” Plastics News. November 13, 2012. http://www.plasticsnews.com/china/english/headlines2. html?id=1352511124.

46 Katharine Earley. “Could China’s ‘Green Fence’ Prompt a Global Recycling Innovation?” The Guardian. August 27, 2013. http:// www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/china-green-fence- global-recycling-innovation.

47 Gwynn Guilford. “A lot of US Plastic Isn’t Actually Being Recycled Since China Put Up Its Green Fence.” Quartz. September 16, 2013. http://qz.com/122003/plastic-recycling-china-green-fence/.

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2.6 Construction

or the purposes of this discussion, “construction” slowdown, the Financial Times’ beyondbrics blog notes that Fencompasses the various processes involved in raising struc- “House price-to-income ratios in large cities such as Beijing, tures—architecture, hardware, contracting, building materials Shanghai and particularly Shenzhen have been rising steadily and development. over the past two years,” with the qualification that “these cities Interestingly, the construction industry was not officially make up less than 5 percent of new home sales in China… But recognized as a discrete sector contributing to GDP until 1983, the fact that China’s overall price-to-income ratio continues to following Deng Xiaoping’s making the case that the construc- fall – even as it rises in these cities – suggests that this share tion industry could be a profit-making sector on its own and is not large enough to inflict serious damage on the property should be treated accordingly.1 market”9. Under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Housing and Ur- The growth in home prices does appear to have slowed since ban and Rural Construction, the industry in China has contin- reaching an apparent peak in April 2010. In January of this year, uously performed well, with total gross output value reported as the State Council further “ordered cities to better manage the 6.75 billion yuan in 1985 growing to 3.75 trillion yuan (grow- supply of land, raise tax rates on the sale of apartments or houses ing year-on-year by approximately 33 percent) by the end of the held for less than five years and set price control goals for new third quarter in 2008; similarly, in the first three quarters of homes,” in an additional effort to contain future growth.10 A 2008 the total income of the construction industry increased Businessweek report on surging property prices in December year-on-year by nearly 25 percent to 3.43 trillion yuan and the 2009 noted that such increases were driven by “low interest total profit grew year-on-year by 26.8 percent to 83.5 billion rates, official encouragement of bank lending, and then Beijing’s yuan.2 In 2009, output value of national construction was re- half-trillion-dollar stimulus plan [which] all made funds readily ported to have risen 22 percent year-on-year to reach 7.59 tril- available”11. lion yuan3 (no doubt helped a great deal by the economic stimu- Despite government efforts to contain housing prices, the lus efforts of the PRC government against the global economic situation has not substantially changed; in February 2011 Reu- slowdown) and in 2010 the figure was reported by the National ters noted that “with one-year deposit rates at 2.75 percent and Bureau of Statistics to have reached 9.52 trillion yuan.4 Total consumer prices seen jumping to an annual pace of 5.3 percent investment in the sector over 2010 was reported to be in excess in January, inflation-adjusted deposit rates are set to fall to neg- of 52.2 trillion yuan.4 ative 2.55 percent,” and that “raising rates by 350 basis points, More recently, an analyst writing for BBC News observed the amount needed to make them clearly positive in real terms, that, “Construction has come to dominate China’s economy, would wreak havoc on the economy and possibly fuel social un- accounting for roughly 25 percent of all activity and about 15 rest, a major concern for the ruling Communist Party.”12 percent of all jobs,” while also cautioning that “No one knows Although experimental property taxes were announced for exactly how much over-building has taken place. But Beijing Chongqing and Shanghai in January 2011, “the taxes, which ap- alone is said to have nearly four million apartments standing ply only to new purchases of relatively expensive housing, main- empty”5. ly for investment purposes, are drawing a skeptical response.”13 If over-building is really so widespread, it hasn’t had much of The upward trend continued, and its effects drove the State an effect on housing prices. Despite a slight dip during the early Council to continue to implement tightening policies on the days of the financial crisis (during the week-long national holiday property market as well as expanding restrictions on home pur- in October 2008, sales of residential properties in Beijing alone chases to second- and third-tier cities.14 were 72 percent lower than during the same period in 2007),6 as Other measures taken to control the property market have a whole property sales in China have remained relatively robust. included “purchase limits, higher down payments, the intro- It was estimated that in 2007 new and resold apartments in duction of a property tax in some cities and the construction of 70 cities across China were selling for 12 to 15 percent more subsidized housing projects.”15 than in 2006,7 and China Daily reported in February 2010 These actions have had at least some effect: a National Bureau that “housing prices rose 9.5 percent in January [2010] from a of Statistics report from November 2011 showed that 59 out of year earlier in China’s 70 large and medium-sized cities […] 1.7 70 major cities in their sample saw property price increases slow, percentage points higher than December [2008]’s housing price up from only 40 cities in August of the same year.15 rise, or the highest increase in 21 months”8. There still remains substantial correction to be made, how- While those figures were encouraging during the economic ever; China Daily reported in late 2011 that “the unrelenting

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2.6 建筑业

为了便于讨论，本部分中“建筑”一词包括建造建 的比重不到5%……事实上，虽然大城市的房价收入比在 筑物的各种过程——建筑结构、装修五金、工程承包、 上升，但是中国整体的房价收入比在不断下降。这就意 建筑材料和房地产开发等。 味着，主要大城市房地产升温并不足以对整个房地产市 场造成严重损害”9。 有趣的是，在1983年之前，领导部门并未意识到 建筑行业是能够对国内生产总值产生重大贡献的独立 自从2010年4月房价明显攀至顶峰后，房价上升趋 行业，直到后来，邓小平提出充分的理由证明，建筑 势有所放缓。2011年1月，国务院进一步提出，为了保 业本身可以是营利的行业，应该将其作为营利性行业 证房地产市场未来的发展，“各城市要加强土地供应管 来对待。1 理，提高对个人购买住房不足5年转手交易的征税率， 限制商品房交易价格”10。2009年12月，《商业周刊》 建筑行业属住房和城乡建设部管辖。在中国，建筑 刊登文章报道中国飙升的房地产价格，认为房价飙升的 业近年来的发展从一个侧面证明了邓小平的观点。1985 动力包括“低利率、政府鼓励银行借贷以及北京实施总 年，建筑业总产值为67.5亿人民币，在2008年前三个季 值近5000亿元人民币的经济刺激方案，导致大量资金轻 度已经增长至3.75万亿人民币（年增长率约达33%）。 易涌入房地产市场。”11 同样，在2008年前三个季度，建筑业总收入比上年同期 增长了近25%，达到3.43万亿元，总利润额比上年同期 虽然政府采取各种措施控制房价上升，但形势并未 增长了26.8%，达到835亿元2。据悉，在2009年，全国建 得到根本改变。2011年2月，路透社指出，“目前的一 筑业总产值同比上升22%，达到7.59万亿元人民币3（毫 年期存款利率为2.75%，而2011年1月的消费者价格指数 无疑问得益于中国政府为应对全球金融危机而提出的经 增幅达到5.3%，因此通货膨胀调整之后的存款年利率实 济刺激方案）。2010年，根据中国国家统计局公布的数 际上为负2.55%”。而且，“要使实际存款年利率不为 据，本年度建筑业总产值达到9.52万亿元人民币4。2010 负数，存款年利率需要提高350个基点，但是这会对经 年建筑业总投资金额超过52.2万亿元人民币。4 济造成严重破坏，并可能加剧社会动荡，这也是执政的 共产党主要关心的问题。”12 最近，BBC新闻网的一位评论员发表评论说，“建 筑业已经成为中国经济的支配行业，建筑业经济活动 虽然重庆市和上海市已经宣布从2011年1月开始征 占国民经济比重约为25%，从业人员占总就业人口比重 收个人住房房产税，但是“个人住房房产税的征收对象 约为15%。”并且提出警告称“没有人知道有多少楼房 是出于投资目的购买的高档住房房产，所以引起各方面 属于过度开发。但是有消息说北京市有近四百万套空 的质疑。”13 置房”5。 房价持续上涨对社会经济造成了负面影响，因此， 就算房地产过度开发真的广泛存在，这对房价并 国务院继续实行从紧的房地产政策，同时把商品房限购 没有造成多大的影响。尽管在金融危机初期出现些许回 政策扩大到二、三线城市。14 落，(在2008年十一国庆节黄金周期间，北京的住宅楼 盘销售量比2007年同期下降了72%)6，中国房地产销售市 为控制房地产市场价格，政府也采取了其他措施， 场从整体上看依旧相对稳健。与之形成对比的是，2007 其中包括“限购、提高首付比例、在某些城市征收房产 年，全国70多个城市的一手和二手公寓销售量比2006年 税以及建设保障性安居工程。”15 增加了12%到15%7。《中国日报》在二月份的报道中提 到，“截止至2010年1月份，中国70个大中城市房价比 这些措施产生了一定成效：国家统计局在2011年 上年度增长9.5％……比2008年12月房价上涨1.7％，涨 11月公布的统计数据显示，在抽样调查的70个主要城市 幅创下21个月来新高”8。 中，有59个城市房价增速出现放缓，而同年8月份增速 放缓的城市只有40个。15 在经济放缓之下，这些增长的数字令人振奋。然 而，来自《金融时报》署名为beyondbrics的人士在其博 然而，房地产市场仍有大量重要问题有待纠正。 客里发表博文，指出“在过去两年里，中国各大城市的 根据《中国日报》在2011年年底的报道，“由于房地产 房价与居民收入比持续上升，包括北京、上海，尤其是 市场持续高速增长，导致当前全国房价比2007年增长了 深圳。”而“这些城市一手房地产交易量占全国交易量 140%，北京市的房价在过去八年里增长了八倍。”16

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real estate boom has driven housing prices up by 140 percent than 40 other sectors from cement and steel to furniture, rose nationwide since 2007, and by an eightfold increase in Beijing 19.3 percent in the first eight months from the same period over the past eight years.”16 a year ago, slower than the 20.5 percent rise in the first seven Although efforts to adjust real estate prices are ongoing, months.” 21 prices have fallen enough that there were reported at least five Consequently, “China’s biggest property developers [sit- street demonstrations in Shanghai since October 2011, with ting] on $25 billion in cash as they prepare for a possible credit early buyers protesting discounts offered to later buyers by, crunch and another round of crackdowns on real estate specu- among other things, breaking into sales showrooms and smash- lation.”22 ing scale models. Brokers too have suffered, laying off thousands “With land prices hitting record highs and authorities re- of workers and closing hundreds of offices.17 newing their push to rein in house prices, the developers’ cash In the face of this unrest, Premier Wen Jiabao indicated that hoards may well prove crucial in a sector where margins are the government would continue its tightening measures.18 coming under pressure”.22 In July of the following year, Central government author- “Cash-starved smaller developers are proving tempting tar- ities reportedly dispatched 16 inspection teams to major real gets for some of these cash-rich larger players,” it continues. “Ac- estate markets around the country “after gauging the scale of the cording to Thomson Reuters data, some $14.9 billion in mergers recent property price upturn as a result of lax implementation and acquisitions have been announced this year, already top- of government policy.”18 In other words, the Beijing authorities ping 2012’s entire tally of $14.7 billion.”22 best efforts to control property prices may have been under- In July of 2013 the government “ordered a five-year sus- mined by the very officials entrusted to execute on the plans. pension of the construction of new official buildings,” its latest The move coincided with “prices in some major cities, in- effort to “crack down on extravagance and pervasive corrup- cluding Shanghai, Guangzhou and Beijing, showing early tion.” 23 sign[s] of a sharp ‘U’ turn.”19 Nevertheless, by December it was reported that the ban was Following the inspections, “the central government [report- not being effectively enforced, leading the government to order edly gave] warnings to some local authorities who were found “a new crackdown to ensure promises are kept to rein in extrav- not to be following the original guidelines, with the aim of max- agance and pervasive corruption.”24 imizing revenue from land sales.”19 An efficient, long-term solution to a superheated property Although by that time “Land authorities [had] already market remains elusive. “China’s soaring house prices reveal an started to cut land supplies in an effort to adjust the housing uncomfortable truth,” observes Reuters. “Government is one of market, lowering land supply from 172,600 hectares planned the biggest obstacles to the success of taming the market. State at the beginning of this year to 159,300 hectares,”19 the Cen- income is so entwined in the need for rising land prices that tral government is widely seen to be stuck between a rock and policy efforts to try to curb the house market create an inherent a hard place. On one hand there is a clear requirement to get conflict of interest.”25 housing prices under control not only for the disastrous effect Foreign investment in the property market is growing, as a real estate bubble popping on the Mainland might have but well: the State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported in also in terms of maintaining social stability as home ownership 2010 that 23 percent of foreign investment in the PRC went in major cities becomes increasingly out of reach for ‘ordinary’ into the real estate sector.26 citizens. Meanwhile, authorities are also hesitant to “counter Due to tight restrictions on residential property, most for- the efforts of maintaining growth”19—presumably doubly-so in eign investors enter into the nation’s commercial property such proximity to the Communist Party’s once-every-ten-years market—especially so in first-tier cities where there are quota leadership changeover. restrictions on foreign investment scale.27 On the whole, the government’s measures to stabilize residen- Major foreign investors in the Mainland property market tial property prices seem to have succeeded despite their poor are mostly from private equity,27 with large investments being implementation in some localities, with Xinhua reporting that made in development enterprises.28 “Housing prices have remained at roughly the same level [since As the Central Government’s tightening efforts have made 2010], while average per capita income has increased by more it more difficult to secure financing for developers, they are than 10 percent year-on-year, [indicating] that housing prices increasingly turning to private equity to fund their projects. […] lowered in comparison to the average income.”20 White Paper contributors Dezan Shira note that “In 2010 By August 2013, authorities’ efforts to cool the market had alone, overseas PE funds including the U.S.-based Blackstone, begun to have some effect, with real estate investment and sales Netherlands-based GTC Real Estate, and some foreign capi- growth slowing in that month. According to the National Bu- tal-based PE funds of the HSBC Bank have established partner- reau of Statistics, investment in the sector, “which affects more ships with domestic property developers.” and that “As a major

192 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

在政府的各项房地产调控政策之下，房价已经出 能出现信贷紧缩以及政府开展新一轮打击房地产投机行 现下跌，降价幅度之大，令已购房者发起抗议行动。 动做好准备。”22 从2011年10月起，媒体报道了至少五起上海业主上街 抗议活动。因为不满发展商突然向新购房者提供优惠 “随着土地价格创历史新高，政府三番五次出击控 折扣，业主发起抗议，冲入楼盘售楼部，砸烂销售模 制房价，房地产行业的利润空间变得越来越小，在这种 型。房地产中介行业也未能幸免，几百家门店关闭， 情况下，房地产开发商的现金储备显得尤其重要。” 22 裁员数以千计。17 路透社的文章继续称，“规模较小的房地产发展商 面对房地产市场的混乱局面，国务院总理温家宝提 缺乏足够的资金，现金充裕的大型地产商则抓住时机将 出，政府将继续收紧房地产调空政策。18 其收购。根据汤姆森路透集团的数据，到本文发稿时为 止[9月]，2013年宣布完成的房地产业并购项目总额大 第二年7月，有报道称，“由于地方政府执行中 约为149亿美元，已经超过了2012年全年147亿美元的并 央房地产调控政策有所松懈，近期房地产价格有所回 购总额。” 22 升”，所以中央政府部门派出16个督查组到全国各大 省（市）房地产市场实地考察。18换言之，中央政府想 2013年7月，为了打击“奢侈腐败的风气”，政府 方设法制定措施控制房价，但是执行措施的地方官员 下发通知，要“在五年内禁止各级党政机关新建楼堂 却可能令中央的努力功亏一篑。 馆所。” 23

在中央政府向各省派遣督查组之时，媒体也报道 然而，到了12月，有报道称上述禁令并未得到有效 称“上海、广州、北京等大城市的房价开始出现明显上 执行。因此，中央政府再次发出指示，要求“各级党政机 行态势。”19 关严厉执行廉政建设，坚决制止奢侈腐败的风气。” 24

据报道，督查组回京后，“中央政府对某些未严格 中国政府仍然未能制定一套长期有效的解决方案， 执行中央调控政策、依赖土地销售获得财政收入的地方 为过热的房地产市场降温。路透社评论说，“中国的房 政府发出警告。”19 价仍然一路飙涨，这揭示出一个令人不安的事实：政府 本身就是调控房地产市场的最大障碍之一。政府收入与 那时候，“为了调控房地产市场，中国国土资源 土地价格上涨存在密切联系，因此政府出台政策措施来 局开始减少土地供应量，从2012年年初的172600公顷缩 抑制房地产市场，本身就存在利益冲突。”25 减至159300公顷。”19然而，中央政府明显陷入一个左 右为难的局面。一方面政府需要控制房价，以免对中国 外资在房地产市场的投入也在增长。根据国家外汇 内地可能存在的房地产泡沫造成灾难性影响，同时也有 管理局公布的报告，2010年，中国23%的外商投资流向 利于维护社会稳定，因为在全国各大城市买房对于“普 房地产行业。26 通”市民来说越来越艰难。另一方面，政府也不愿意 让“维持经济增长而付出的努力”付诸东流。19在临近 由于政府对住宅地产设有严厉的限制，大多数外国 中国共产党十年一次的换届选举之时，政府尤其需要确 投资者只能进入中国的商业地产市场——尤其在一线城 保良好的经济发展形势。 市，外商投资房地产的规模受到配额限制。27

尽管地方政府贯彻不力，但中央政府稳定房价的政 进入中国内地房地产市场的外国投资者主要来自私 策总的来说已经取得成功。据新华网报道，“目前房价大 募股权投资27，大部分外资主要通过投资本土房地产企 致（与2010年）保持同一水平，而人均收入同比上涨了 业进入房地产市场。28 10%。这说明，与人均收入相比，房价是有所下降的。”20 由于中央政府实行收紧房地产市场的政策，发展商 到2013年8月，中国政府为房地产市场降温的努力 将面临着融资困难的局面。因此，越来越多发展商转向 已经产生一定的效果，当月房地产投资和销售增幅均 私募股权投资基金寻求融资。根据《白皮书》撰稿者香 有下降。根据中国国家统计局公布的数据，“中国2013 港协力商业顾问有限公司的记录，“仅仅2010年一年内 年1-8月房地产开发投资比去年同期增长了19.3%，低于 就有多家外国私募股权基金公司和中国本土房地产发展 1-7月的增速，后者为20.5%。房地产投资对水泥、钢 商建立合作关系，其中包括美国私募股权投资公司黑石 铁、家具等四十多个行业均造成影响。” 21 集团（Blackstone）、荷兰环达通房产控股集团（GTC） 以及香港汇丰银行（HSBC）旗下的几家外资私募股权 因此，“中国大型房地产开发商虽然坐拥250亿美 投资公司”，而且“作为进入中国房地产市场的主要渠 元现金，但是对房地产市场仍然持观望态度，以便为可 道，2010年外商对房地产市场的直接投资比上年同期增

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channel for foreign funds to enter the Chinese property market, The document also reportedly stipulated that “officials at foreign direct investment into the field in 2010 saw an impres- all levels of government will be ordered to start inspecting all sive 40 percent year-on-year increase, reaching US$24 billion construction projects for which they are responsible, to ensure and contributing 22.7 percent to the total actual foreign capital that these problems are not repeated”29. that went to non-financial areas.”28 In August 2009 (a month after the proclamation) it was With the slowdown in construction (as well as the overall noted that “during the last three months, there [had] been economy), Premier Li Keqiang has emphasized the importance high-profile residential building collapses in Shanghai, Cheng- of tackling the long-standing problem of industrial overcapacity du, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shijiazhuang”).29 as traditional industries and “zombie enterprises” continue to It appears that there is work yet to be done on this issue: struggle. Speaking at a December 2015 seminar on the coun- in November 2010, a 4-hour fire that consumed an apartment try’s economic situation, Premier Li discussed the increasingly building in Shanghai was reportedly caused by unlicensed prioritized issue of overcapacity on traditional industries, which welders.30 has been blamed for surplus inventory and shrinking profits in While the issue lingers, some sectors are at least making ef- the industrial sector and a drag on overall economic growth. forts at compliance. The South China Morning Post last year “From next year,” the Premier said, “we should be determined reported that when state-run Sinopec was granted approval for to cut back on overcapacity in traditional industries as well as a a refinery expansion (a project reportedly worth US$ 900 mil- large number of zombie enterprises,” pointing out in particular lion) in Fujian province in March 2012, the company issued a the worst-performing steel and coal industries. 42 strict warning to its project team specifically about accepting According to the China Daily, China produces 800 million bribes, stating that “project engineering and construction has tons of steel a year – four times more than any other country been a main area for corruption at Sinopec.” The warning “un- has ever produced – yet the sector is currently experiencing derscores” - the SCMP reports – “what experts say is the great- overcapacity of about 400 million tons as construction slows. est challenge facing President Xi Jinping and his drive to tackle Both large and medium-sized Chinese steel companies saw corruption – rampant graft in engineering, procurement and overall losses in the first eight months of 2015.42 construction contracts.” 37

Notable Policy Activity New Regulation of ‘Irregular’ Contracting A draft regulation on the construction sector was published Investigation Into Corruption and Illegal Activity in the Con- on the State Council Legislative Affairs Office’s website in late struction Industry November 2012 for public comment. As originally published, Jointly issued on July 9, 2009 by the general office of the the draft “bans one construction project from having more than Central Committee of the CCP and the State Council, the one general contractor,” in addition to “[stipulating] that only ‘“Zhong Banfa” Document No. 27’ noted that there were some the general contractor can outsource the project to subcontrac- systemic problems in the construction industry that had hurt the tors,” that “subcontractors are banned from outsourcing again” industry as a whole and betrayed the public trust. These issues and that “the developer is banned from interfering,” among oth- were reported by law firm Jones Day as being identified as29: er stipulations.31

• Money-for-power deals and commercial bribery, where- Offering context for the additional regulation of construc- by some officials abuse their power to acquire personal tion, Xinhua notes that: gain. • Some local governments operate approval and lease Malpractice in the contracting of construction projects procedures illegally, and change the use categorization has become a major cause of poor-quality housing and of land and increase the utilization rate of construction infrastructure projects in China. Some projects have without approval. been outsourced again and again among many contrac- • Some contractors illegally subcontract construction tors and subcontractors, making it difficult to check the work. qualifications of builders and supervise construction • Some tendering agencies operate illegally. quality. • Some local governments waste taxpayers’ money by con- structing lavish buildings. In a number of cases, irregular contracting has also re- • Some contractors violate safety and quality regulations. sulted in defaulted payments to construction workers. 31 • Some local governments requisition land illegally during the construction process.

194 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

长了40%，投资金额达到240亿美元，在非金融领域实际 在建筑安全问题上，中国还需作出更多努力：2010 使用外资中所占的比重达到22.7% 。”28 年11月，上海一幢住房建筑物发生一起持续四个小时的 火灾，报道称火灾因无证焊工违规操作导致。30 建筑业（以及整体经济）正在衰退，一些传统行 业和“僵尸企业”还在延口残喘，其实早已难以为继。 虽然此问题仍未解决，但是至少有些行业在为达标 为此，李克强总理特别强调要处理好由来已久的产能过 而努力。据《南华早报》去年的报道，国有企业中石化 剩问题。在2015年12月中的一次国家经济情况分析会 位于福建省的炼油厂扩建项目（报道称项目总值达到9亿 议上发表讲话时，李克强总理分析了传统行业产能过剩 美元）于2012年3月获国务院批准之后，公司马上就禁止 问题，产能过剩不但导致整个行业库存增加、利润缩 收受贿赂问题向项目组下发措辞严厉的警告，称“项目 减，而且还拖累整体经济增长，所以必须重点解决。他 工程建设领域是中石化腐败的重灾区。”《南华早报》 说，“明年，我们要下决心淘汰一批产能过剩企业和为 报道称，这份警告“特别指出，工程建设、物资采购和 数众多的僵尸企业”，特别是经济效益最差的钢铁和煤 施工合同中的贪污现象尤其猖獗，这也是很多专家认为 炭行业。42 习近平主席要打击腐败必须面对的最大挑战。”37

根据《中国日报》报道，中国每年生产钢铁8亿 新规出台监管“违规”分包现象 吨，比其他国家最高产量记录高出四倍。然而，由于建 筑业疲软，钢铁行业目前存在大约4亿吨过剩产能。在 2012年11月底，中国国务院法制办公室在其网站 2015年前八个月，中国所有大中型钢铁企业无一盈利， 公布《建筑市场管理条例（征求意见稿）》，征求社会 全部出现亏损。42 各界意见。该管理条例草案规定，“实行总承包的建设 工程，建设单位不得发包给两个以上单位”，并“（规 重要政策变动 定）分包工程应当由施工总承包单位进行分包”，“分 包单位不得再次分包”。其他规定还有“发展商不得非 法干涉（建筑工程）”等。31 针对建筑行业腐败和非法活动的调查 新华网的报道解释了政府制订建筑市场管理规定的 中共中央办公厅和国务院办公厅于2009年7月9号 原因： 联合印发“中办发27号文”（译者注：《关于开展工 程建设领域突出问题专项治理工作的意见》），指出 在建筑工程分包过程中存在转包和违法分包等 建筑行业某些系统性问题有损行业整体发展并违背公 违规做法，是房屋建筑和基础设施项目质量低 下的主要原因。有些工程在承包商和分包商之 众信任。这些问题由众达律师事务所（Jones Day）总结 汇报如下： 间多次转包，所以施工单位的资质很难核实， 建筑质量也难以监督。 • 权钱交易及商业贿赂，一些官员滥用职权，获取 个人利益 在很多情况下，违规分包也是拖欠建筑工人劳 • 一些地方政府非法审批和租赁，更改土地用途， 务费的原因。31 未经批准增加建设利用率 • 一些承包商非法转包工程 控制房价的管理规定 • 一些招标机构违法经营 一些地方政府浪费纳税人的金钱兴建豪华建筑 • 除了宏观经济调控措施、提高首期支付要求和征收 一些承建商违反安全和质量监管 • 个人住房房产税之外，中国国土资源部还对开发商施加 一些地方政府在施工过程中非法征用土地29 • 管理压力，协助中央政府控制房地产价格。

该文件还规定，“各级政府官员将被勒令开始检 国土资源部在2010年9月公布的管理办法，其中规 查他们所负责的所有建筑项目，以确保上述问题不会 定，“中国的地产商及其控股股东存在违法违规违约行 重演。”29 为的，不得参加土地拍卖”，而且“经拍卖获得土地闲 置一年以上，在问题查处整改到位之前，发展商不得参 2009年8月（也就是文件下发一个月之后），有报 加其他土地拍卖”，以解决土地囤积问题。此外，“城 道披露，“在过去三个月内，上海、成都、浙江、江 市申报下一年度用地时，经济适用房、廉租房、中小套 苏、石家庄等地均出现高层住房建筑倒塌事件。”29 型普通住房用地比重不得低于70%，否则地方政府不得 将土地售予豪华住宅建设。32

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Regulatory Attempts to Contain Housing Prices conditions.” This was echoed by a spokesman from China’s In addition to macroeconomic adjustments, increased down Statistics Bureau, who said that” “relevant departments will payment requirements and the new property tax, the Ministry closely follow the changes in the property market and improve of Land Resources has added additional regulatory pressure on property macro-control policies accordingly.”38 developers to assist with the Central Government’s property price control efforts. Possible Expansion of Property Tax Program A September 2010 release from the Ministry stipulated that, According to Housing and Urban-Rural Development among other things, “Chinese property developers and their Minister Jiang Weixin, “The Chinese government is ‘actively controlling shareholders will be banned from participating in studying’ an expansion of the experimental property tax pro- land auctions if they are found guilty of illegal activities,” that gram in the country and may expand the program when time is “Developers who have failed to start developing land a year after appropriate.”36The property tax program, begun in 2011 as an acquiring a plot at auction would be barred from bidding for attempt to moderate excessive growth in residential real estate additional land until they rectify their irregularities” in order to prices and transaction volume, initially only applied in Chongq- address the issue of land-hoarding and that local governments ing and Shanghai. The above was echoed in a statement from failing to allocate “at least 70 percent of land offered at auction the State Administration of Taxation in September 2012.39 to affordable housing, or small and medium-sized apartments” However, in an almost about-face, according to a report by will be prohibited from selling land for luxury housing.32 the Official China Securities Journal, China would postpone the expansion of the pilot property tax program. 39. According Tightening Control over Foreign Investment in Real Estate to China Daily, while the State Council , in February 2013, had Since 2010, several measures have been taken to restrict for- pledged to strictly implement and improve tightening measures eign investment in the Mainland’s property markets: on the housing market in light of faster-than-expected price On November 4, 2010, the State Administration of Foreign rises in some cities” and that “One of the control directions Exchange and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural De- it named was the expansion of experimental property tax re- velopment “clarified” a four-year old regulation restricting for- forms” and while the Economic Information Daily had stated eign individuals to the purchase of one residential property only that “Wuhan, Hangzhou and Xiangtan possess the basic pre- for personal use and foreign-invested enterprises with branches requisites for the launching of such pilots, including a tax eval- or representative offices to one non-residential house for busi- uation system”, the same media report said, “the final expansion ness use—and only in the city where the office is registered.33 list is still subject to decisions from the State Council and other On November 22, 2010, the Ministry of Commerce fur- related authorities.” 40 ther released its “Circular on Strengthening the Reviews on the Most recently, in March 2014, TheWall Street Journal states, Approval of Foreign Investment into Real Estate Field”, which Vice Finance Minister Liu Kun declared that while existing pi- aimed to retain speculative and “round-tripping” investments. lots in Shanghai and Chonqqing will continue, there would The circular gave provincial authorities the mandate to review be no plans to expand the program to other cities. Instead, the the integrity of the related land-use documents, prohibited for- focus would be on drafting a new property tax law. The same eign-invested real estate enterprises from buying or selling prop- media states that Premier Li Keqiang, in his monthly report, erties that are completed or under construction in the PRC for said that “the government wants to accelerate the introduction arbitrage as well as prohibiting them from entering into prop- of a property tax law.” No timetable, however, was indicated.41 erty development or operations businesses, among attempting to close several loopholes relating to mergers, acquisitions and equity exchanges.34 Finally, in April 2011 foreign investment in the construc- tion and operation of villas was moved from the “restricted” cat- egory in the Foreign Investment Catalogue to the “prohibited” one.35 Meantime, as the housing market continues to cool down with more constrained mortgage availability and tighter credit, the Chinese government is indicating that different housing policy regulations could be applied to different types of cities. Bloomberg reports that in March 2014, Premier Li Keqiang said that “the government will regulate the housing market differently in different cities to take into account local

196 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

加紧对房地产市场外资的管理 称，“武汉、杭州和湘潭已经完成房产税试点的准备工 作，包括税收评估系统。”该报道也表示，“试点名单 自2010年起，政府采取了多项措施限制外资进入中 决定权仍在国务院及其相关主管部门。”40 国内地房地产市场。

据《华尔街日报》于2014年3月的报道，财政部副 2010年11月4日，中国国家外汇管理局与住房和城 部长刘昆在接受访问时称，重庆和上海房产税试点还 乡建设部共同发布一份通知，进一步“阐明”一份四年 在继续进行，但是国家暂时没有扩大试点城市的计划， 前开始施行的文件。该通知明确规定，境外人士在境内 下一步工作的重点是起草新的房地产税法。《华尔街日 只能购买一套用于自住的住房，在境内设立分支、代表 报》也报道称，李克强总理在每月的报告中表示，“政 机构的外国机构只能在注册城市购买办公所需的非住宅 府希望加快推出房地产税法。”然而，报道中并没有说 房屋。33 明立法的时间表。41

2010年11月22日，中国商务部办公厅发布了《关于 加强外商投资房地产业审批备案管理的通知》，目的在 于抑制投机性投资和“返程”投资。该通知试图填补与 并购、股权出资的投资方式相关的政策漏洞，要求省级 商务主管部门重点就相关土地使用文件的完整性进行复 核，禁止外资房地产企业通过购买、出售境内已建或再 建房地产物业进行套利，不得审批涉及房地产开发经营 业务的投资性公司。34

最后，2011年4月，政府公开了《外商投资产业指 导目录》，将别墅建设和经营从原先的“限制外商投 资”类别转移到“禁止外商投资”类别。35

同时，由于按揭贷款限制增加和信贷紧缩，房地产 市场继续降温，中国政府也提出分类调控因地制宜的调 控思路。据彭博新闻社报道，2014年3月，国务院总理 李克强表示，“政府会考虑当地的情况，对不同的城市 采取不同的房地产调控政策。”国家统计局发言人也对 此作出响应，表示“有关部门将密切关注房地产市场动 态，完善房地产市场宏观调控政策。”38

房产税征收范围可能扩大

中国住房和城乡建设部部长姜伟新在接受访问时 说，“中国政府目前正在积极研究扩大房产税试点，在 适当的时候可能会把试点范围扩大。”36 2011年，为了 控制住房价格和商品房交易量增长过快的势头，中国政 府在2011年推出房产税征收方案，开始试点城市只有上 海市和重庆市。国家税务总局在2012年9月的一份公告 也对上述看法作出了响应。39

然而，事情的发展却出乎意料，甚至可以说是彻 底改变。根据官方媒体《中国证券报》的一份报道， 中国将会推迟房产税试点范围。39据《中国日报》报 道，2013年2月，由于部分城市房地产价格增速高于预 期，中国国务院召开会议，提出要严格落实和收紧房 地产市场调控措施，“其中一个调控方向是扩大个人 住房房产税改革试点范围”。《经济参考报》也有报道

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7 Jonathan Ansfield. “Beijing’s Housing Market Bubbles.” The 19 Wu Yiyao. “Further Property Curbs Expected.” China Daily. August International Herald Tribune. September 27, 2007. http://www. 14, 2012. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-08/14/ iht.com/articles/2007/09/26/properties/rebeijing.php?page=1. content_15672575_2.htm.

8 Zhao Tingting. “China’s Housing Prices Up 9.5% in Jan.” China 20 “China’s Property Market to Cool Down: Experts.” Xinhua. August Daily. February 11, 2010. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ 13, 2012. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-08/13/ bizchina/2010-02/11/content_9462315.htm. content_15670115.htm.

9 Ranjit Lall. “Chinese Property Bubble: A Myth?.” beyondbrics. 21 “Growth in China Property Investment and Sales Slows in February 3, 2011. http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/02/03/ August.” Reuters. September 10, 2013. http://www.reuters. chinese-property-bubble-a-myth/. com/article/2013/09/10/us-china-economy-property- idUSBRE98909T20130910. 10 David Barboza. “Beijing Intensifies Effort to Curb Rising Home Prices.” The New York Times. January 26, 2011. http://www. 22 Umesh Desai and Yimou Lee. “China Property Developers Pull nytimes.com/2011/01/27/business/global/27yuan.html. Down Shutters, Hoard Cash.” Reuters. September 18, 2013. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/19/us-china-property- 11 Dexter Roberts. “Mania on the Mainland.” Businessweek. December 30, idUSBRE98I02420130919. 2009. http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_02/ b4162030091917.htm. 23 “China Cracks Down on Building Projects in Anti-graft Move.” Reuters. July 23, 2013. http://www.reuters.com/ 12 Koh Gui Qing and Samuel Shen. “China to be A Rates article/2013/07/23/us-china-graft-idUSBRE96M0CE20130723. Tortoise in Year of the Rabbit.” Reuters. February 3, 2011. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/03/idINIndia- 24 “China Complains Government Building Ban Being 54621020110203?pageNumber=1. Flouted.” Reuters. December 5, 2013. http://www. reuters.com/article/2013/12/06/us-china-graft-building- idUSBRE9B504D20131206. 198 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

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25 Xiaoyi Shao and Koh Gui Qing. “The Uncomfortable Truth in 36 “Chinese Gov’t Studying Property Tax Expansion.” Xinhua. China’s Property Market.” Reuters. November 6, 2013. http:// November 13, 2012. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/06/us-china-property- business/2012-11/13/content_15921819.htm. idUSBRE9A509X20131106. 37 “Engineering and Construction Hotbed of Corruption.” South 26 “3 pct of Foreign Investment in China Went into Real Estate in China Morning Post. September 28, 2013. http://www.scmp. 2010.” Xinhua. June 16, 2011. http://news.xinhuanet.com/ com/business/china-business/article/1319008/corruption-rife- english2010/china/2011-06/16/c_13934260.htm. procurement-chinese-state-companies

27 Wang Ying. “Commercial Property on the Up.” China Daily. May 38 “China March New Home Price Increases Ease on Tighter Cred- 30, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2011-05/30/ it.” Bloomberg. April 18, 2014. http://www.bloomberg.com/ content_12600429.htm. news/2014-04-18/china-s-march-new-home-price-increases-ease- on-tighter-credit.html 28 “Foreign Participation Surges in China’s Property Development.” China Briefing. March 29, 2011. http://www.china-briefing. 39 “China to Postpone Widening of Property Tax Pilot com/news/2011/03/29/foreign-participation-surges-in- Program:Report.” Reuters. February 1, 2013. http://www. china%E2%80%99s-property-development.html. reuters.com/article/2013/02/01/us-china-property-tax- idUSBRE91004020130201 29 “China’s Construction Industry Comes Under the Microscope.” Jones Day. August, 2009. http://www.jonesday.com/ 40 “More Chinese Cities Ready for Property Tax Pilots.” China newsknowledge/publicationdetail.aspx?publication=6565. Daily. February 27, 2013. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ business/2013-02/27/content_16260972.htm 30 Farah Master and Anita Li. “Eight Detained After Shanghai Apartment Fire Kills 53.” Reuters. November 16, 2010. http:// 41 “China Not Planning to Expand Pilot Property-Tax Program.” The www.reuters.com/article/2010/11/16/us-china-fire-shanghai- Wall Street Journal. March 19, 2014. http://online.wsj.com/arti- idUSTRE6AE43620101116. cles/SB10001424052702303802104579448513811488016

31 “China Regulates Contracting to Improve Construction Quality.” 42 Xing Zhigang, Zhao Yinan. “Li Pledges to Cut Back on Overca- Xinhua. November 23, 2012. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ pacity.” China Daily. December 4, 2015. http://www.chinadaily. business/2012-11/23/content_15952681.htm. com.cn/business/2015-12/04/content_22624640.htm

32 “China Steps Up Pressure on Property Firms to Develop land.” gov. cn. September 27, 2010. http://www.gov.cn/english/2010-09/27/ content_1711229.htm.

33 “China Tightens Restrictions on Real Estate Purchases by Foreigners.” China Briefing. November 19, 2010. http:// www.china-briefing.com/news/2010/11/19/china-tightens- restrictions-on-real-estate-purchases-by-foreigners.html.

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2.7 Manufactured Articles

anufactured articles have, by all ac- China’s manufacturing sector has also played a large role in Mcounts, played a major role in China’s rise to the status providing jobs for an estimated 27.2 percent of the employed of economic superpower. Beginning in the early 1980s, Chi- population (some 211 million individuals) as of 2008.4 na’s manufacture of goods, ranging from textiles, footwear and Now, due to rising costs in the more developed coastal re- simple consumer goods to the more recent televisions, medical gions, manufacturers that remain in the PRC are moving inland equipment and appliances, accounted for $916 billion in rev- to more rural areas—as a result, we may see a second period of enue in 2006—fully 95 percent of the total value of exports.1 significant development as the nation’s undeveloped inland be- According to one London-based analyst’s op-ed in China comes more industrialized.5 Daily: In February 2010, China Daily reported that secondary in- dustry as a whole accounted for 46.8 percent of China’s 2009 There are three secrets to China’s export success. First, “general domestic income” (likely meaning gross domestic in- by engaging in regional production chains, Chinese en- come, or GDI),6 and contributed 49.3 percent to the nation’s terprises have been able step by step to absorb advanced annual economic growth in 2010. technology and upgrade their skills. According to the According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2010 the World Bank, more than a quarter of China’s manufac- PRC’s “manufactured goods accounted for 19.8 percent of the tured exports are hi-tech, one of the highest propor- world’s total in 2010, which allowed the country to overtake the tions in the world. As a result, workers these days are far United States to become the world’s top manufacturer in terms more productive than they were a few years ago, with of output.”7 their increased output helping make up for the higher In January 2011 the Ministry of Industry and Information wages they are paid. Technology predicted slowdown in the growth of the nation’s industrial output within that year due to “the risk of falling ex- Second, the sheer size of China’s manufacturing work- ports as pressure for the yuan’s appreciation grew and global de- force plus a focus on investment in factories and the in- mand growth remained weak, as well as inflation, the financial frastructure that surrounds them allows Chinese enter- problems of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and prises to respond quickly to shifts in demand and ship environmental restrictions.”8 their goods to market faster and at lower cost than their Having been a major engine for growth during the past overseas rivals. twenty years of economic prosperity, the manufacture of goods also saw some of the most prominent negative effects from the Third, many enterprises benefit from generous govern- economic slowdown that became apparent in 2008: according ment support in the form of cheap loans and a support- to the Guangdong Provincial Department of Foreign Trade and ive currency policy. Opinion is now divided on whether Economic Cooperation, more than 1,300 companies closed, the renminbi is close to “fair value”. But exporters in suspended operations or relocated out of the Pearl River Delta China have the luxury of knowing that the People’s between January and September 2008. This figure is particular- Bank of China will intervene if needed to prevent a ly relevant due to Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta’s status sharp appreciation in the Chinese currency.2 as one of the most heavily-invested areas in light industrial man- ufacturing, as well as being one of the most affluent. It was -ad The issue of the yuan’s value has been a persistent one; in the ditionally reported that approximately 30 percent of foreign-in- recent U.S. Presidential Election, Republican candidate Rom- vested enterprises in Guangdong reported losses in that period.9 ney vowed to label the PRC a “currency manipulator” on his With signs of the global economic slowdown turning more first day in office, thus triggering trade sanctions against -Chi apparent, the Central Government became extremely proactive nese exports. Following the re-election of President Obama, the at attempting to cushion companies from the ill-effects of the U.S. Department of the Treasury—which department is actu- global issues, including the 4 trillion yuan stimulus package, ally responsible for making the determination of currency ma- which included adjustments to VAT, consumption and business nipulation, not the President’s office—reported that the PRC’s tax regulations.10 control of the yuan did not meet the legal requirements for it Furthermore, the promising notion of increased domestic to be labeled a currency manipulator, although the same report consumption was seen to offer a graceful solution to the issue called the yuan “significantly undervalued.”3 of diminishing export opportunities; the move toward non

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2.7 制造业

众所周知，机械制品在中国晋身为经济大国的过程 2010年2月，《中国日报》报道指出，第二产业创 中扮演了主要的角色。从上世纪80年代开始，2006年中 造的收入在中国2009年“国内总体收入”（可能指国内 国制造的出口产品，从纺织品、鞋类、简单消费品，到 生产总值，或者GDI）的比重为46.8%，6为2010年的经济 近期的电视机、医疗器械与配件,出口额达到9160亿美 增长率贡献了49.3% 。 元——占出口总额的95% 。1 中国国家统计局公布的统计数据显示，“2010年中 《中国日报》驻伦敦分析员发布评论文章说： 国制造业产出占全球比重的19.8%，超过美国跃为全球 制造业产量排名第一的国家。”7 中国出口有三个成功的秘诀。首先，中国出口企 业积极建立地区生产链，一步一步地吸收外国先 2011年1月，中国工业和信息化部预计，由于“人 进技术和升级自身技术水平。根据世界银行公布 民币升值压力持续增大，国际市场需求增长乏力，以及 的数据，高科技产品在中国出口商品的比重超过 通货膨胀、中小企业（SME）融资困难、环境保护限制 四分之一，在全球名列前茅。因此，现在中国工 等因素，中国出口额可能出现下降”，所以中国2011年 人的生产力比过去几年有了极大提高。在收入提 工业总产值的增速将会放慢。8 高的同时，他们的工作效率也提高了。 作为过去20年经济蓬勃发展的重要引擎，2008年全 其次，中国制造业劳动力数量非常庞大，而政 球经济放缓时时产品制造业首当其冲：根据广东省对外 府和企业非常重视投资建设工厂设备和周边地 贸易经济合作厅的数据，2008年1-9月间，珠三角地区 区基础设施。所以，相比国外的竞争对手，中 有1300多家企业倒闭、停产或迁出该地区。这一数字对 国企业能够更快速地应对需求变化，以更快的 广东和珠三角地区特别重要，因为该地区是轻工业最重 速度和更低的成本把产品送到海外市场。 要的投资地区，也是最富裕的地区之一。据报道，大约 30%的外资企业表示在2008年1-9月间出现亏损9。 第三，很多中国企业得到中国政府的大力支 持，可以享受低息贷款和利好货币政策。虽然 然而，随着全球经济放缓的迹象越来越明显，中央 现在人民币是否已经接近“公允价值”仍然存 政府也一直积极主动，帮助企业缓解全球经济问题带来 在争议，但中国的出口企业丝毫无需担心，因 的不良影响，例如政府提出了4万亿元人民币的经济刺 为他们知道，如果有必要的话，中央人民银行 激方案，内容包括增值税改革、消费税和营业税调整等 会出手干预，防止人民币升值过快。2 相关规定。10

人民币价值争议其实由来已久；在最近的美国总统 此外，国内消费持续上涨，弥补了萎缩的出口市 大选中，共和党总统候选人罗姆尼曾经宣称，要在当选 场缺口。华南美国商会的年度《经济情况特别报告》在 后第一日认定中国为“汇率操纵国”，并对中国出口商 2006年以来五年的连续调查发现，在华外资企业呈现出 品采取贸易制裁措施。奥巴马总统再次当选后，美国财 向非出口型制造业转型的趋势：2006年，46%的受访企 政部—财政部才是认定是否存在汇率操纵的部门，而非 业表示侧重于向中国国内市场销售产品；2007年该比例 总统办公室—发布报告，认为中国政府对人民币的监管 达到51%， 2008年达到57.5%，2009年达到72.5%，2010 并不构成汇率操纵，中国不是“汇率操纵国”。但是该 年更是上升到75% 。 报告也指出，人民币价值“被严重低估”。3 为了保持经济稳定发展，中国政府越来越重视扩大 中国的制造业为解决就业问题作出重要贡献。2008 国内消费。一方面，由于西方国家经济衰退未见恢复迹 年，制造业估计为27.2%的劳动人口（大约2.11亿人） 象，而中国出口商品大部分是制成品，所以出口额也持 提供就业岗位。4 续下降。另一方面由于最近中国与亚洲若干邻国外交遇 冷，引起了投资者忧虑。 现在，在沿海发达地区，由于成本上升，许多仍然 留在中国的制造企业把工厂迁移到内地或者更偏远的地 据《中国日报》报道，“中国轻工工艺品进出口商 区。因此，随着中国欠发达地区更加工业化，我们可能 会公布广交会统计数据，本届广交会轻工业产品成交总 会看到第二个经济大发展时期。5 额较上届下降了7.67%（2011年11月-2012年11月）”，

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export-oriented manufacturing among foreign invested en- able and domestic research and development15 as well as special terprises has been tracked by AmCham South China’s annual financial support for SMEs.16 State of Business study since 2006 (the 2013 results of which By 2011, this financial support was claimed to have had a are reproduced in Part IV): in 2006, 46 percent of companies strong positive effect by CITIC Securities Chief Economist participating in the study reported focusing primarily on selling Zhu Jianfang (see below).17 goods to the domestic Chinese market. This figure reached 51 In line with these goals, PRC Vice President Xi Jinping told percent in 2007, 57.5 percent in 2008, 72.5 percent in 2009 and attendees of the 2010 World Investment Forum in Xiamen that 75 percent by 2010. the government would “encourage more foreign investment Encouraging domestic consumption has become increas- in high-end manufacturing industries, high-tech industries, ingly critical for the Chinese government as overall exports—a modern services industries, new energy, energy-saving and en- large chunk of which are constituted by manufactured arti- vironmental protection industries. We will encourage foreign cles—continue to slow amid tepid economic growth in the investors to move to and increase investment in the central and west and the PRC’s worryingly chilly diplomatic relations with western regions, and develop labor-intensive industries meet- several of its neighbors in Asia. ing environmental requirements in the central and western re- China Daily reports that “according to statistics released by gions.” 18 the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Unsurprisingly, Vice President Xi’s points later reappeared Light Industrial Products and Arts-Crafts, the total transaction in the 12th Five-Year Plan.19 volume for light industrial products declined by 7.67 percent Modernization efforts, in fact, are not exactly new. The Na- [between November 2011 and November 2012],” while “those tional Bureau of Statistics reported in 2012 that the “total value for other products, such as machinery and electric products, of the high-tech manufacturing industry hit 8.8 trillion yuan in textiles and apparel, also declined.”11 2011, 5.9 times its value in 2002.”7 The Ministry of Commerce reported 287 new foreign in- One emerging aspect of high-tech manufacturing on the vestment projects in light industry over the course of 2009, Mainland is the increased use of robotics. China Daily reports utilizing $1.69 billion.12 By 2010 that amount had reportedly that: jumped to $49.6 billion in FDI over the course of the year and $28.5 billion over the first half of 2011.13 The average labor cost in China has nearly doubled Despite the rapid growth and all the benefits it carried with in the past five years, going to more than 40,000 yuan it, however, the majority of Chinese manufacturing has histori- ($6,400, 4,900 euros) a year in 2011 from less than cally (since the “opening up”) added relatively small amounts of 25,000 yuan a year in the beginning of 2007, according value and has been highly labor- and environmentally-intensive. to global consulting firm Ernst & Young. Although progress has been and continues to be made, there remain significant portions of the manufacturing industry (and But according to a report this year by the International China’s economy as a whole) that, while creating jobs and con- Federation of Robotics, there were 74,300 operational tributing to GDP, also have side-effects such as high and inef- robots in China at the end of 2011, up 42 percent from ficient energy consumption, environmental damage and, due 2010.20 at least in part to the government’s own macro-level develop- ment strategy, noticeable regional imbalances in development While the up-and-down seems to have potential as a hu- and prosperity. The “Go West” plan to drive labor-, energy- and morous infographic, the phenomenon itself is both notewor- environmentally-intensive activities to poorer inland provinces thy and likely to increase in prevalence as the Mainland con- and regions and the increasing emphasis on indigenous innova- tinues attempts to modernize its manufacturing sector. tion and domestic consumption can be considered strategies to address these issues. Another method by which to address these issues has turned Notable Policy Activity out to be the 2009 stimulus effort itself; the plan associated with the manufacturing industry, however, explicitly included Continuing Changes to Tax Policy the goal of generating 3 million jobs in light industry over three A new round of tax refunds were eliminated on July 15, years, in addition to “structural adjustment” and industrial up- 2010, covering 406 products mostly “considered to be high pol- grading.14 luting, high energy consumption or domestically sourced goods The plan also entailed the closure of highly-polluting and in- that are scarce,” according to Deloitte, who further noted that efficient manufacturing operations, tax incentives for the export “compared to the 2007 reduction in the export VAT refund, of machinery, the import of technology not domestically avail- this round of changes is relatively prudent;”21 nevertheless, a

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而且“机械电子产品、纺织品和服饰等产品也较上年有 现在，中国高科技制造业出现一个新趋势，即越来 所下降。”11 越多使用机器人。《中国日报》报道说：

不过，根据中国商务部的报告，2009年中国轻工 过去五年里，中国的平均劳动力成本几乎 业一共新增287个外资项目，实际使用外商直接投资 翻了一番。安永会计师事务所的一份报告显 16.9亿美元。12 2010年，第二产业吸收的外商直接投资 示，2007年年初，中国劳动力成本平均每年不 总额上升到496亿美元，而2011年上半年的数字为285 到25000元人民币，到了2011年，这个数字超过 亿美元。13 了40000元（6400美元或4900欧元）。

尽管中国制造业增长迅速且优点众多，但是，从历 不过，根据国际机器人联盟今年发布的数据， 史上来看（自改革开放起），中国大多数制造业增加的 截止至2011年底，中国共有操作机器人74300 价值额相对较小，并且处于劳动密集型、环境依赖大的 个，比2010年上升了42%。20 情况。虽然制造业已经并将持续取得进展，但制造业的 重要部分（也是中国经济整体的重要部分）虽然创造了 这些数字高低起伏犹如一张“趣味创意信息图”。然 就业并促进国内GDP增长，却也产生了一些副作用，例 而，使用机器人这个现象本身值得我们关注。中国建 如高成本低效率的能源消耗、环境损害等。这在一定程 设现代化制造业的努力仍在继续，所以机器人的使用 度上归咎于政府自身的宏观发展战略——区域不平衡的 可能会更加广泛。 发展和繁荣。旨在鼓励劳动密集、高耗能及依赖环境大 的工业活动转移到欠发达的内陆地区的“西部大开发” 计划，、以及大力增强自主创新能力和拉动内需,或许 重要政策变动 是应对上述问题的战略。 税收政策持续改变 另一种解决这些问题的方法就是2009年经济刺激计 划本身。一些具体的实施计划陆续出台。与制造业相关 根据德勤会计事务所提供的报告，2010年7月15 的计划中，除了“结构调整”和产业升级外，详尽制定 日，国家再次进行新一轮的取消退税政策，涉及产品 了三年内在轻工业部门增加300万个就业岗位的目标。14 达406种，大部分属于“高污染、高耗能、国内原材 料稀缺”的产品。该报告进一步指出，“与2007年减 该计划也意味着关闭高污染和低效制造企业、以 少出口增值税退税相比，这一轮政策变动显得较为谨 税收鼓励机械出口、引进国内尚无技术或研发成果的 慎。21”但是，从规定正式公布到生效只有22天时间， 产品15，以及对中小企业提供特殊财政支持。16 而我们认为涉及本次撤销退税的大多数公司会希望有 更长的缓冲期。 2011年，中信证券首席经济学家诸建芳认为，这 份经济刺激计划已经对中国经济的复苏产生了积极推 与此同时，据新华网消息，“为了鼓励国家主要 动作用。17 战略产品、核心技术和主要项目的研究和发展”，某 些高科技产品的进口关税在退税撤销的同一日废除， 2010年，第二届世界投资论坛在厦门举行。中国国 涉及的产品包括“核心电子产品、高端通用芯片、基 家副主席习近平在论坛开幕式上发表演讲，提出政府应 本软件、合成电路、制造设备、新一代无线移动通信 该“鼓励外资投向高端制造业、高新技术产业、现代服 网络、预防和治疗某些传染性疾病如艾滋病和肝炎的 务业、新能源和节能环保等产业；引导外资向中西部地 新药物等”。22 区转移和增加投资，鼓励外商在中西部地区发展符合环 保要求的劳动密集型产业。18”这些举措都有利于实现 2014年6月30日，中共中央政治局审议通过了改革 上述目标。 中国税收制度、预算制度和财政事权关系的整体方案。 根据世界银行的报告，该改革方案并未对外透露详细内 毫无意外，习副主席提出的观点再次出现在政府稍 容，但是“第十八届三中全会通过的改革决定提出了财 后公布的“十二五”规划中。19 税改革的总体目标：公共财政是国家治理的基础和重要 支柱。科学规范的财税制度是确保公共资源优化配置、 事实上，政府为实现制造业现代化作出努力很早以 市场统一、维护社会公平正义的关键，也是国家长治久 前已经开始了。2012年，中国国家统计局公布的统计数 安的基石。”在世界银行的同一份报告中，财政部部长 据显示，“中国高科技制造业总产值达到8.8万亿元人 楼继伟表示，新一轮财税体制改革将在2016年基本完成 民币，是2002年的5.9倍。”7 重点工作和任务，而中国财税改革的目的，是到2020年

205 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

span of 22 days between first publication and the new rule be- port then somewhat obliquely enumerates five points from the coming effective is rather slimmer than we suspect most compa- 12th Five-Year Plan which aim to improve the position of these nies involved in the trade would prefer. small- and medium-sized enterprises: Meanwhile, tariffs on certain imports of high-tech goods including, according to Xinhua, “core electronics, high-end 1. Improving the capacity of establishing business and cre- universal chips, basic software, integrated circuit-manufactur- ate jobs; ing equipment, new generation wireless mobile communication 2. Optimizing the structure of SMEs; networks, and new drugs for prevention and treatment of some 3. Boosting development of the “new, distinctive, special- infectious diseases such as AIDS and hepatitis,” were removed ized and sophisticated” industries and the industrial on the same day that the refund elimination occurred in order conglomerates; to “encourage research and development in the nation’ s major 4. Upgrading enterprise management level; strategic products, core technologies and major projects”.22 5. Refining the service system of SMEs.23 On June 30, 2014, China’s top leaders endorsed a program of reform to the nation’s tax system, budgeting practices and fis- Tax Cuts for Small Businesses cal relations. While details have not yet been disclosed, it was Less than two weeks after that report,Xinhua cited the Min- stated, the World Bank reports, that “broad objectives for fiscal istry of Finance as announcing a series of tax relief policies to and tax reforms in the Third Plenum decisions are: Public -fi “benefit the nation’s crisis-hit small and micro-sized firms—in- nance is the foundation and a critical pillar for state governance. cluding street vendors—and also help curb inflation,” includ- A scientifically designed fiscal and tax regime is the institution ing raising the threshold for VAT and business taxes to 5,000 that guarantees resource allocation optimization, market unifi- through 20,000 yuan as well as abolishing the stamp tax on cation, social equality, and long-lasting security and peace for loans from financial institutions until October 31, 2014.24 a nation.” In the same World Bank report, Minister of Finance Small to medium size businesses benefited further from Lou Jiwei states that the deadline for major reform tasks con- preferential tax policies issued later by the government. Ac- cerning the fiscal and tax system will be completed by 2016, and cording to a China Briefing report by Dezan Shira & Associ- that China aims to have a fully developed modern fiscal system ates, “on April 8, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and the State by 2020. The World Bank is of the opinion that “this will not Administration of Taxation (SAT) issued an ‘Announcement be minor amendments to current policies; but rather will in- on Preferential Income Tax Policies for Small and Low-Profit volve systemic restructuring and institutional innovation”. The Enterprises’. Based on the Announcement, small and low-profit Finance Minister has stated that “the years 2014 and 2015 will enterprises with a taxable income not exceeding RMB100,000 be vital in pushing forward the reforms.”25 (US$16,130) should pay corporate income tax at the rate of 20 According to the China Briefing, China’s massive reform to percent on only 50 percent of their taxable income. The prefer- replace business taxes (BT) with a revamped value-added tax ential policy is effective from January 1, 2014 to December 31, (VAT), which started in 2012 as a trial program, is expected 2016.”26 to expand to three crucial sectors by end of 2015 – real estate, finance, and consumer services. The targets for the future of Made in China 2025 VAT reform in China are contained in the 12th Five Year Plan In May 2015, the State Council approved “Made in China Period (2011-2015), which stipulates that all sectors currently 2025”, a scheme that will use mandates, subsidies and other subject to BT should be switched over to VAT by the end of methods to persuade manufacturers to upgrade their facto- 2015. The State Council had announced in May that the VAT ries. According to a 2015 Economist Special Report on China reform would be expanded to include construction, real estate, Business, its “immediate aims are to improve quality, productiv- financial services and ‘life’ services. The Ministry of Finance also ity and digitisation, and to expand the use of numerically con- recently laid out a draft reform plan involving these sectors. 27 trolled machines, involving policies to encourage the adoption of robotics, 3D printing and other advanced techniques.” The A Growth Plan for SMEs in the 12th Five-Year Plan plan is for China to become a green and innovative “world man- On September 22, 2011, a national “Growth Plan for ufacturing power” by 2025. 28 SMEs” was released to bolster a critical—and yet underprivi- leged—part of the Mainland’s economy. According to Xinhua, “SMEs contribute to 60 percent of China’s industrial output and create 80 percent of the country’s jobs” and yet have historically had fewer options for support from the government than state-owned enterprises. The re-

206 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

建立完善的现代财政制度。世界银行认为，“中国本次 政部和国家税务局于4月18日发布了‘关于小型微利企业 财税改革将会涉及系统性结构调整和体制创新，而不是 所得税优惠政策有关问题的通知’。通知规定，自2014年 仅仅对现有政策进行小修小补。”财政部长楼继伟明确 1月1日至2016年12月31日，年应纳税所得额低于10万元 表示，“2014年和2015年将是推进改革的关键。”25 （相当于16130美元）的小型微利企业，其所得减按50% 计入应纳税所得额，按20%的税率缴纳企业所得税。”26 根据《中国简报》报道，中国正在进行大规模的税 费改革，并于2012年开始试点增值税改革，以增值税取 中国制造2025 代原先的营业税。预计到2015年年底，增值税改革将会 扩大到三个重点行业：房地产业、金融业和消费生活服 2015年5月，国务院总理签批《中国制造2025》战 务业。完成增值税改革是“十二五”规划（2011-2015 略文件。该战略将以政策引导、补贴和其他手段让中国 ）要达成的改革目标之一。根据该目标，到2015年年 制造企业升级转型。根据《经济学人》发布的“中国 底，全国所有行业征收的营业税全部改为增值税。2015 经济2015特别报告”，《中国制造2025》战略的“直 年5月，国务院宣布增值税改革将扩大到建筑业、房地 接目标是提高产品质量，提升生产力和数字化水平，扩 产业、金融服务业和生活服务业。中国财政部也于近期 大使用数控机床，并出台相关政策，鼓励企业使用工业 出台了涉及上述行业营改增的改革计划草案。27 机器人、三维（3D）打印和其他先进技术。”按照这个 计划，中国到2025年将会成为一个创新驱动、绿色发展 “十二五”中小企业成长规划 的“世界制造强国”。28

中小企业是中国内地经济的重要组成部分，但是长 久以来缺乏良好的发展环境。2011年9月22日，为了促 进中小企业的发展，中国工业和信息化部发布了《“十 二五”中小企业成长规划》。

据新华网报道，“中小企业创造的价值在中国工业 总产值的比重达到60%，为国家创造了80%的工作岗位”， 但是一直以来政府对中小企业的支持远远少于国有企业。 该报道称，为了提高中小企业的地位，“十二五”规划提 出了发展中小企业的五项主要任务：

1. 增强创业创新活力和吸纳就业能力；

2. 优化中小企业产业结构；

3. 提高“专精特新”和产业集群发展水平；

4. 提升企业管理水平；

5. 完善中小企业服务体系。23

为小型企业减税

上述报道出现之后不到两周，新华网继续报道中国 财政部公布的一系减税政策，以“帮助深受经济危机冲 击的小型、微型企业——包括流动摊贩，并抑制通货膨 胀”，其中包括：增值税和营业税的起征点提高到每月 5000-20000元人民币；在2014年10月31日之前对金融机 构与小型、微型企业签订的借款合同免征印花税。24

政府近期颁布的税收优惠政策将会让中小型企业进 一步受益。根据协力管理咨询公司的《中国简报》，“财

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Works Cited 13 Zhou Yisu. “China Attractive FDI Destination.” China Daily. August 23, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ 1 The National Bureau of Statistics of China. “China Statistical Year- bizchina/2011-08/23/content_13169686.htm. book 2007.” China Statistics Press. Beijing, People’s Republic of China. 2007. 14 “China to Release Stimulus Plan for Light Industry Soon.” Alibaba News. February 12, 2009. http://news.alibaba.com/article/detail/ 2 Mark Williams. “Exporters Adjusting to Rising Wages.” China business-in-china/100050949-1-china-release-smulus-plan-light. Daily. November 21, 2012. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ html. cndy/2012-11/21/content_15946477.htm. 15 “China Unveils Plans to Spur Key Industries.” Xinhua. February 3 “US says China not a currency manipulator.” BBC News. November 5,2009.http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-02/05/ 27, 2012. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20518490. content_10767784.htm.

4 “Statistical Communiqué on Labor and Social Security Development 16 “China to Create 3 mln Jobs In Light Industry.” Xinhua. May in 2008.” The National Bureau of Statistics of China. May 22, 18, 2009. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-05/18/ 2009. http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/newsandcomingevents/ content_11396459.htm. t20090522_402560900.htm. 17 Kevin Yao. “China Flash PMI Rebounds to Ease Hard-landing 5 Martin Ravallion and Shaohua Chen. “Learning From Success.” Fi- Fears.” Reuters. October 24, 2011. http://www.reuters. nance & Development. 2004. com/article/2011/10/24/us-china-economy-hsbc-pmi- idUSTRE79N0IC20111024. 6 Lan Lan “‘No Intention’ of Capping Emissions.” China Daily. February 25, 2010. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ 18 “Full Text of Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping’s Speech at World china/2010-02/25/content_9499066.htm. Investment Forum 2010.” Xinhua September 7, 2010. http://news. xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-09/07/c_13483118_4. 7 “Development of China’s Industrial Economy in Past Decade.” htm. Xinhua. September 4, 2012. http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/ business/2012-09/04/content_15732802.htm. 19 Thomas Stanley and Vivian Xu. “China’s 12th Five-Year Plan: Overview.” KPMG China. http://www.kpmg.com/CN/en/ 8 “China’s 2011 Industrial Output Growth May Slow to 11%.” IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Publicationseries/5- Xinhua. February 24, 2011. http://news.xinhuanet.com/ years-plan/Documents/China-12th-Five-Year-Plan- english2010/china/2011-02/24/c_13748232.htm. Overview-201104.pdf.

9 Liang Qiwen. “Delta Region Bears Brunt of Slowdown.” China 20 Zhong Nan and Zhao Yanrong. “The Rise of the Robots.” Daily. November 11, 2008. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ China Daily. October 5, 2012. http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/ bizchina/2008-11/11/content_7193071.htm. weekly/2012-10/05/content_15797110.htm.

10 “China Reduces Tax Burden on Firms.” China Daily. November 21 Sarah Chin and Gao Li Qun. “Deloitte Tax Analysis: PRC 11, 2008. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2008-11/11/ Tax.” Deloitte. June 20, 2010. http://www.deloitte.com/assets/ content_7191910.htm. Dcom-China/Local%20Assets/Documents/Services/Tax/ TaxNewsletterEN2010/cn_tax_tap1102010eng_300610.pdf 11 bjreview.com.cn. “Dawn of China’s Foreign Trade Recovery.” China Daily. November 12, 2012. http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/ 22 “China Removes Tariffs, Value-added Tax On Imports for Civilian business/2012-11/12/content_15918304.htm. High-tech Projects.” Xinhua. August 3, 2010. http://news. xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-08/03/c_13428647. 12 “The Survey of Foreign Investment in China’s Light Industry in htm. 2009.” Invest in China. October 28, 2010. http://www.fdi.gov. cn/pub/FDI_EN/Economy/Sectors/Manufacturing/Light%20 23 “China Issues Growth Plan for SMEs.” Xinhua. September 26, Industry/t20101028_127766.htm. Accessed November 13, 2010. 2011. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011- 09/26/c_131160303.htm.

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24 “China Implements Tax Cuts to Boost Cash-strapped Small Businesses.” Xinhua. November 1, 2011. http://news.xinhuanet. com/english2010/china/2011-11/01/c_131224402.htm.

25 “China Economic Update- Special Topic: An Update of China’s Fiscal and Tax Reforms.” World Bank. October 29, 2014. http:// www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/EAP/ China/CEU_Oct29_en.pdf

26 “China Announces Preferential Tax Income Policies for Small Busi- nesses.” China Briefing, Dezan Shira & Associates. April 11, 2014. http://www.china-briefing.com/news/2014/04/11/china-an- nounces-preferential-income-tax-policies-small-businesses.html

27 Rainy Yao. “ China’s VAT Reform Moving Forward.” China Brief- ing. Dezan Shira & Associates. August 5, 2015. http://www. china-briefing.com/news/2015/08/05/chinas-vat-reform-mov- ing-forward.html

28 Vijay Vaitheeswaran. “Back to Business: Business in China Special Report.” The Economist, September 12, 2015. http://www.econo- mist.com/printedition/specialreports?year[value][year]=2015&- category=76984

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211 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

2.8 Hospitality

In 2009, the State Council added tourism as another not included in the 130 million total.3 “pillar industry in the 12th Five-Year Plan,” Xinhua reports. This large number of Hong Kong- and Macau-related en- “[Tourism] is widely believed to be the major factor that pro- tries may account for the disproportionately high number of pels the country’s hotel industry.”1 What is today a competitive visitors to Guangdong (being adjacent to both Hong Kong and lucrative industry on the Mainland comes from humble be- and Macau)—in 2008, Guangdong received nearly five times ginnings, however: prior to the “opening-up” of China in 1978, as many overall visitors as Shanghai and more than five times the hospitality industry consisted primarily of government-run the number of visitors to Beijing. Guangdong’s total number of guest houses and associated services. After the decision to 25.6 million visitors dwarfs Shanghai’s total of 5.2 million and provisionally open China’s economy to outside participation Beijing’s 3.7 million.3 in 1978, the government administration at the time responsi- More recent visitor statistics from the National Tourism Ad- ble for tourism arranged eight joint venture hotels in Beijing, ministration indicated that entries had again declined in 2009, Shanghai and Guangzhou.2 with a total of 126.5 million in that year, with the largest ad- While the official title of ‘first hotel in China’ is apparently justment being a 9.82 percent growth rate in the “foreigners” contested, the White Swan Hotel in Guangzhou and the Ji- category.4 an’Guo Hotel in Beijing are the earliest-established joint ven- The first three months of 2010 appeared to show a recovery ture hotels in the country. Notably, the White Swan Hotel is from this downward trend, with the largest gain, an increase of credited as running a profit in its first year of operation, 1983.2 21 percent, again being in the “foreigners” category.5Statistics Significantly, foreign management companies have held a from the National Tourism Administration reported a number role in the industry since the beginning—Hong Kong Peninsu- of 134 million international visitors attracted to mainland Chi- la Hotels was contracted to manage the Jian’Guo Hotel from its na in 2010, which is expected to reach 153 million by 2015.6 A opening, after which Sheraton Hotels & Resorts was brought 0.93 percent increase was recorded for overall visitors between in to manage what became the Sheraton Great Wall Hotel (also January and September in 2011.7 in Beijing) after two years of unsuccessful operation under its In December 2008, China Daily reported a Ministry of former management.2 Commerce release stating that accommodation and catering Beginning in the 1980s, construction of hotels beyond the retail sales between January and November 2008 had risen original government-run guest houses began in earnest. Be- 24.9 percent year-on-year to 1.39 trillion yuan, and that there tween 1980 and 1990, 1,784 new hotels were built, and in the were 591 new foreign-invested companies in the sector—31.4 decade following 8,494 more were opened for a reported total percent fewer than the same period in 2007—and “the actually of 10,481 ‘tourist hotels’ with nearly 950,000 rooms in 2000.2 utilized foreign funds slipped 11.9 percent to $840 million.”8 In 2001 a nomenclature change from ‘tourist hotels’ to ‘Star-rat- The following year, the Ministry reported even fewer new ed hotels’ saw the total number of reported facilities shift to foreign-invested projects in the accommodation and catering only 7,358 in 2001, growing to 13,583 in 2007.3 industries (41 and 90 fewer than 2008, respectively); utilized Between 2004 and 2007, mean growth in the number of foreign capital in the accommodation sector predictably de- “Overseas Visitor Arrivals” (including residents of Hong Kong clined (by 20.6 percent, in this case), although utilized capital and Macau Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan) was in the catering sector actually increased by 7.2 percent.9,10 approximately 11 percent (although year-on-year growth de- It is possible some part of this decrease in foreign investment clined from approximately 10 percent in 2005 to only 5 percent is related to the 2007 revision to the Catalog for the Guidance in 2007).3 From 2007 to 2008, however, the total number of of Foreign Invested Enterprises, which beginning December 1, foreign fell by approximately one percent—a somewhat surpris- 2007, prohibited foreign direct investment in hotels. While the ing result considering that the Summer Olympics were held in majority of western ‘name brands’ primarily manage properties Beijing that year.3 for local developers, the revision also affected non-Chinese That year there were a reported 130 million recorded “Over- Asian developers, who have been more directly invested in de- seas Visitor Arrivals” in the PRC, of which 26.1 million were velopment.11 foreign passport holders (excluding Hong Kong and Macau res- Another factor to consider is the already-high saturation of idents). 101.3 million were “Chinese Compatriots From Hong major international Hotel brands, particularly in the high end Kong and Macao”, 4.4 million from Taiwan and an additional of the market; it was reported in 2007 by trade publication Chi- approximately 53 million “Overnight Tourists” were apparently na Hospitality News, for example, that “by the end of [2006], 37

212 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

2.8 酒店业

据新华网报道，“2009年，国务院在‘十二五’规 万游客数量，上海的520万游客和北京的370万游客可 划中增加旅游业作为支柱产业；普遍认为[旅游业]是促 谓小巫见大巫。3 进国家酒店业蓬勃发展的主要因素。”1然而，今天竞争 激烈、利润丰富的中国旅游业是从一穷二白开始的：在 中国国家旅游局近期公布的游客数据显示，2009年 1978年实行“改革开放”之前，中国的酒店行业主要由 游客数量再次出现下降，总人数为1.265亿人，外国游 国营的招待所和相关服务组成。在1978年中国决定暂时 客数量波动幅度最大，增长率为-9.82% 。 4 放开中国经济，允许外商参与投资后，当时负责旅游管 理的政府部门在北京、上海和广州安排建立了八家合资 游客数量的下降趋势似乎在2010年前三个月有所回 饭店。2 升，其中外国游客数量同样变化最大，增长幅度达到21 个百分点。5中国国家旅游局的统计数据显示，2010年入 尽管“中国第一家合资酒店”的官方认定众说纷 境中国游客达到1.34亿人次，预计到2015年达到1.53亿 纭，广州的白天鹅宾馆和北京建国饭店是当时最早成立 人次。6从2011年1月到9月，中国累计入境旅游人数同比 的合资饭店。值得注意的是，白天鹅宾馆在1983年成立 增长了0.93% 。7 的当年就实现了盈利。2 2008年12月，中国日报报道了商务部发布的信 特别需要指出的是，外国酒店管理公司自酒店行业 息：2008年1至11月间住宿和餐饮业零售额同比增加了 在中国出现便参与了其发展——香港半岛酒店管理集团 24.9%，达到1.39万亿元人民币。2008年行业新增外资 在建国饭店成立之初就接管其酒店管理工作。两年后， 相关企业591家，比2007年同期减少31.4%，“实际利用 由于前任酒店管理公司的营运不够成功，喜来登酒店管 外资8.4亿美元，下滑11.9个百分点”。8 理公司接手饭店的管理工作，饭店更名为北京喜来登长 城饭店。2 根据商务部公布的报告，2009年中国酒店住宿和餐 饮业新增的外资项目比以往更少（分别比2008年减少了 从20世纪八十年代开始，不同于国营招待所的酒店 41和90个），预计酒店住宿行业实际利用外资将会有所 建设开始蓬勃发展起来。在1980到1990年间，兴建酒店 下降（预计下降20.6%），但餐饮业实际利用外资则增 1784家，之后十年又兴建8494家酒店，截至2000年，中 长了7.2% 。9，10 国共建有“旅游酒店”10481家，客房近95万间2。2001 年，“旅游酒店”命名更改为“星级酒店”，符合设施 上述数字下降可能与2007年修订的《外商投资产业 标准的酒店仅有7358家，上升至2007年的13583家。3 指导目录》有关，从2007年12月1日起，禁止外商直接 投资建立酒店。当大部分的西方品牌酒店管理公司主要 从2004年到2007年，“入境旅游人数”（包括香港 为本地开发商管理酒店物业，该修订版目录也影响了一 特别行政区、澳门特别行政区和台湾居民）平均每年增 些在中国直接投资的非国内的亚洲发展商。11 长11%（但是该数量的同比增长幅度有所下跌，2005年 约为10%，而2007只增长了5个百分点）3。然而，从2007 另一个需要考虑的因素是主要国际酒店品牌，特 年到2008年，外国游客人数下跌了大约一个百分点—— 别是高端市场，已经趋于饱和。以2007年贸易出版物《 正值北京夏季奥运会，海外游客数量出现下降有点让人 中国旅业》的报道为例，“截至[2006]年底，37家国际 感到意外。3 酒店管理企业进驻中国，带来60个品牌和502家酒店。 在中国开设酒店数量最多的前五位企业分别为：温德姆 同年，据报道访华海外游客总数达1.3亿，其中外 159家，洲际69家，雅高43家，喜达屋37家以及万豪31 国护照持有者2610万（港澳居民除外），港澳游客1.01 家”。12这些国际酒店品牌除了在一线大城市扩大经营 亿，台湾游客440万。这一统计显然没有将5300万过夜 外，还不约而同把目光投向二、三线城市。13 游客包含在内。 尽管如此，经济型酒店的增长速度仍比奢侈品牌 因为香港和澳门地区有大量游客进入内地旅游， 酒店更进一步。《中国日报》在2008年年中推测，截 导致广东省接收的游客数量远远超出其他省份（广东 至2007年底有超过100家经济型酒店品牌已在全国大约 毗邻香港和澳门）。2008年，广东省接待的海外游客 1000个地点设立酒店14，一项最近的研究公布的数字表 几乎是上海的五倍，北京的五倍多。比起广东省2560 明，到2009年1月，经济型酒店在全国范围内开设的地

213 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

international hotel management companies had entered Chi- director He Jianmin from the Shanghai University of Finance nese market with 60 brands of 502 hotels. The top five that have and Economics told China Daily that some international opened the most hotels in China are Wyndham with 159, In- brands—including Accor, InterContinental Hotels Group and terContinental with 69, Accor with 43, Starwood with 37 and MGM Hospitality—have already created localized brands spe- Marriott with 31,”12 and the leading international brands are, cifically for the Chinese market.17 collectively, expanding not only in tier 1 cities but also into tier The appeal of launching local-styled brands is not limited 2 and tier 3 cities as well.13 to the Mainland, either; it was reported that there will be “88 Budget hotels, however, seem to be proliferating faster and million Chinese travelers overseas by 2015”; other Summit at- further than luxury brands. China Daily reported in mid-2008 tendees sagely agreed that “a custom hotel brand designed for an estimation that by the end of 2007 there were more than 100 China is also an effective way to gain Chinese customers who budget hotel brands operating approximately 1,000 locations travel abroad.”17 across the nation,14 whereas one industry report more recently Still, it would seem that at least in the top segment of the published figures indicating that the number of locations had market existing international brands are faring quite well al- grown to 2,800 nationwide by January 2009.15* Of the report- ready: a China Tourism Academy report found that by the end edly 1,200 hotels that were under construction in Asia Pacific as of 2010 “nearly 70 international hospitality brands from 41 of July 2010, 802 were said by a China Daily source to be on the countries and regions” were “managing about 20 percent of the Mainland, and a quarter of those reported to be in the “lower country’s top-end hotels and taking 80 percent of the profits.”18 price category.”16 One culprit for the spectacularly poor competition from U.S.-based budget chain Days Inn, for example, is planning Mainland hotel companies in terms of profitability is the lin- to open 500 new properties over the coming five to seven years gering presence of non-hospitality-oriented state-owned enter- according to the Chinese franchise’s co-owner;13 meanwhile, a prises in the sector: despite Minister Li Rongrong of the State- tourism expert from the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission predicts that more than 1,500 new hotels over all categories will ordering SOEs to divest of “non-core hotel assets” in 2003, open on the Mainland every year from 2010 to 20151 nearly a decade later “some 2,000 hotels valued at trillions of Despite impressive growth, some challenges remain in the yuan remain under SOE ownership”19 “China Market”, including “a mismatch in China between what Although this brazen disobedience to a ministerial-level of- was needed in the market and the desire of often public sector ficial is somewhat surprising,China Daily reports several rea- investors to build statement five star hotels,” (which we read as sons why SOEs may not want to divest so quickly of their hotel government vanity projects) and, according to China Daily, assets: first, “some SOEs own the property managed by interna- “the poor level of staff training.”16 tionally known hotel brands, which have many times brought Another issue attached to the conspicuous production of faster returns than their core businesses.” Secondly, “inefficient high-end hotels is that, according to one analyst, they are often operations at many SOE-run hotels [makes] potential buyers built to drive up the prices of attached offices, residential apart- wary” and thirdly, “questions surrounding existing hotel staff ments and retail spaces.13 and tax liabilities are other hurdles to potential sales.”19 In other Employee acquisition and retention continues to be prob- words, while an SOE-owned hotel may be able to bend regu- lematic. According to “experts” quoted by China Daily, “com- lations and get away with poor efficiency, similar performance pared with other countries, employee turnover at hotels in Chi- would be untenable for a private enterprise competing in the na is very high.”17 market. Furthermore, as the industry as a whole expands the talent Following President Xi Jinping’s public push for govern- pool is not growing apace, leading to a situation in which “many ment austerity, hoteliers “are taking steps to make their prop- hotels urgently need professional staff members, but are finding erties look a little less fabulous” up to and including attempting it even more difficult to recruit excellent employees as the to remove stars from their 5-star ratings in a bid to “win back demand for hotel professionals increases.”17 business from politicians.”20 As the market continues to develop, however, internation- “Among the about 700 five-star hotels in China,” writesThe al brands are increasingly looking to cater their experiences to Wall Street Journal, “average occupancy sagged five percentage Chinese guests both in China and abroad. At the “21st Century points in the year to mid-2013, to 50 percent, according to gov- Hotel Industry Summit” held in 2012, Tourism Management ernment figures cited in China Tourism News. The figures show

*Admittedly, this figure comes from the abstract of a report, since its full contents are almost certainly beyond the scope of this ’White Paper’ and furthermore cost in excess of 1,000 Euros.

214 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

点已经增长至2800个15。【脚注】根据《中国日报》的 在盈利能力方面，中国内地酒店企业严重缺乏竞争 消息，报道所称的截止2010年7月，1200家正在亚太地 力，原因之一是酒店行业一直存在较多非对外经营的国 区修建的酒店，有802家位于中国大陆，约201家酒店属 企酒店。早在2003年，中国国有资产监督管理委员会主 于“低价位类型”。16 任李荣融曾经要求国有企业剥离“非核心酒店资产”。 在近十年之后，“国有企业名下仍然拥有酒店2000家以 例如，美国戴斯酒店在中国特许经营合作伙伴透 上，总资产超过万亿人民币。”19 露，戴斯酒店计划在未来五年到七年内新开设500家经 济型酒店；13与此同时，来自上海社会科学院的一位旅 国有企业公然违抗部长级命令，这多少有些令人 游业专家预计，从2010到2015年，每年在中国内地新开 吃惊。不过，《中国日报》总结了几条国有企业难以剥 设的各种类型酒店将会超过1500家。1 离酒店资产的原因：首先，“有些国企酒店资产由国际 知名酒店品牌管理，可能比国企核心业务带来的收益更 虽然增长速度显著，但是“中国市场”仍然存在一 快。”其次，“很多由国企经营的酒店效益较差，令购 些问题。根据《中国日报》报道，这些问题包括“公共 买方态度更加谨慎。”第三，“酒店员工就业和税收债 部门投资者建立五星级酒店的愿望并不符合中国市场需 务等问题也是收购的潜在障碍”19换言之，国企酒店可 求”（我们认为这是政府的面子工程）和“员工培训水 以在不听从监管，效益低下的情况下继续营业，可是私 平低下”。16 营企业如果出现类似的问题，是不可能在竞争激烈的市 场继续生存下去的。 有分析人士认为，建设豪华高端酒店带来的另一个 问题是，高端酒店往往会推高附近写字楼、住宅公寓和 因为中国国家主席习近平公开要求政府官员纠正不 零售场所的价格。13 良风气，中国的五星级酒店“正想方设法让自己的酒店看 起来不那么富丽堂皇”，甚至纷纷主动要求降星来“赢回 如何招聘并留住员工仍然是个问题。《中国日报》 政府公务消费”。20 援引某“专家”指出，“与其他国家相比，中国酒店员 工的流动率是非常高的。”17 《华尔街日报》报道说，“根据《中国旅游报》 援引的中国政府数据，在截止至2013年年中的一年里， 此外，虽然酒店业整体发展较快，但是人才储备并 中国大约700家五星级酒店的平均入住率减少了5个百分 没有相应跟上脚步，以致“很多酒店急需专业的员工， 点，下降至50%。该数据还显示，同期的客房收入下降 但是要招到优秀的员工更难，因为整个酒店行业对专业 了11%，餐饮收入下降了近19%。”20 人才的需求也在同步增加。”17 更让豪华酒店郁闷的是，负责星级酒店评定工作的 随着中国市场持续发展，国际酒店品牌希望利用 政府机构中国旅游饭店业协会表示，“不存在所谓的‘ 自身丰富的经验，为国内外中国游客提供优质的酒店服 降星’。”该协会说，“如果五星级酒店选择更改星 务。2012年，在第九届21世纪酒店业高峰论坛上，上海 级，它们就会被认为是未评级酒店。” 20 财经大学旅游管理系主任何建民告诉《中国日报》记 者，目前一些国际酒店品牌，包括法国雅高酒店、英国 然而，中央政府刚刚开始的厉行节约措施并未对更 洲际酒店和美高梅（MGM）酒店等，已经在中国成立 多以旅游为主的项目造成影响。虽然曾遭到短暂搁置， 了专门针对中国市场的本地化酒店品牌。17 总投资50亿美元的长隆横琴湾度假区和主题公园21原 定于2014年1月14日开业。该度假区邻近澳门特别行政 建立本地化酒店品牌的需求并不仅限于中国内地。 区，度假区内配备有过山车、鲸鲨馆和拥有1888间套房 据报道，“到2015年将有8800万中国人到国外旅游”。 的豪华酒店。22 高峰论坛的其他与会者纷纷表示，“创造专为中国而设 的酒店品牌也是吸引海外中国客户的有效方法。”17 对此，路透社解释道，“中国有一些豪华基础设施 项目因为维护成本高昂，而且项目本身无法盈利，成为 不过，现有国际品牌在国内高端酒店市场的表现似 华而不实的摆设。但是，横琴岛可能不会如此，主要得 乎相当不俗：根据中国旅游协会的报告，2010年底，“ 益于中国政府的支持，而且横琴岛靠近澳门，地理位置 来自41个国家和地区的近70个国际酒店品牌”占中国全 优越，可以吸引每年蜂拥至澳门的几百万游客。” 21 部高端酒店总量的20%，但利润份额却高达80%”。18

脚注：因为该报告的内容肯定超出了“白皮书”讨论的范围，且需费用超过1000欧元，所以本文数字只出自报告的摘要，而并非完整的报告。

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room revenue off 11 percent in the period, while dining receipts The other end of the hospitality spectrum, catering, has (and plunged nearly 19 percent.”20 will likely continue to) see strong growth as well. Yum!, the Somewhat stiflingly, the China Tourist Hotel Association— management group primarily known on the Mainland for its the government agency that hands out the stars—says that, Pizza Hut and KFC franchises, in 2009 stated its intent to open “There’s no such thing as ‘downgrading stars.’” If five-star prop- 500 new restaurants that year—one-third of its total worldwide erties choose to change their ratings, says the association, they openings.24 Similarly positive, Yum!’s second quarter 2010 earn- will be considered unrated instead.20 ings were up 33 percent in China, compared to 10 percent in the Beijing’s new-found austerity has not threatened more United States.25 More recently, the company opened 92 addi- tourism-oriented projects, however. After a brief delay, the $5 tional restaurants in the first quarter of 2011 and saw its adjusted billion Chimelong Hengqin Bay resort and theme park21 was operating profits grow 18 percent.26 scheduled to open on January 14, 2014. Located near Macau, Despite “same-store sales in China [dropping] 4% in the the project features a roller coaster, a whale shark tank and a fourth quarter [of 2012], compared with a jump of 21 percent lavish 1,888-room hotel.22 the same period a year earlier,” Yum!’s intent to open 700 stores “While some extravagant infrastructure projects in China over the course of 2013 was reported by the Wall Street Journal have turned into white elephants,” explains Reuters, “the odds in December 2012.27 are on Hengqin’s side largely due to the support of the Beijing Competitors McDonald’s is reportedly aiming to reach government and the island’s proximity to the millions of tour- 2,000 outlets across the nation by 2013, having increased ists who throng to Macau every year.”21 investment in 2010 by 25 percent and planning a further 40 After several tough years in which the sector reportedly be- percent increase in investment over 201128. In August of that came “a victim of its own ambition”, rising domestic tourism is year, the company announced its first developmental licensee, bringing about a “welcome reversal” for China’s hotels in 2015. Kunming North Star Group, what will help the brand expand Third quarter RevPAR – an industry measure of occupancy on the Mainland.29 and daily room rates – grew 0.3% year-on-year, the first posi- McDonald’s, like Yum!, also reported lower China same- tive result in four years. In Beijing, demand for high-end hotel store sales in 2012 but only for October.27 accommodation is growing almost twice as fast as supply – a More recently, Reuters reported that the growth of McDon- noticeable change for a sector once plagued by overexpansion, ald’s, Yum! and others had been hit as “Chinese consumers oversupply, and external forces such as the national anti-corrup- are increasingly opting for healthier alternatives in food and tion campaign which has helped to suppress demand for luxury drink.” 30 accommodation. Yum’s sales also fell after CCTV ran a report accusing some Those factors still have not disappeared, however: According of the firm’s poultry suppliers of misusing antibiotics as well as to Fitch, 4 in 10 rooms still sit empty in China as a result of the the April 2013 outbreak of bird flu. Significantly, The Shanghai aforementioned overexpansion. Still, official figures show RMB Food and Drug Administration investigated the chicken con- 1.65 trillion was spent on domestic travel in the first half, up tamination incident. It did not bring a case against Yum China 14.5% year-on-year. While an increasing amount of Chinese and did not assess a fine—see below for on CCTV’s apparent tourists are traveling abroad, domestic tourism still accounts editorial campaign against foreign enterprises in China.31 for more than 80% of China’s travel expenditure. Fitch analysts Sugared beverage manufacturer PepsiCo is also investing forecast double digit growth to continue for the coming five heavily in the PRC, but in infrastructure and R&D. A total of years, as domestic destinations become more attractive and $2.5 billion amount is reported to be going toward building ad- accessible and more households acquire the means to travel. ditional production capacity in four provinces by 2012, in addi- Cruise tourism, introduced to China fewer than 10 years tion to a research and development center tasked with develop- ago, has seen rapid growth. In that time, “five terminals have ing new products for the Asian market, agricultural production been built at an estimated cost of more than 4.5 billion yuan and spending on branding.32 ($735 million),” with “three [more] under construction and In late November 2011, China Daily reported the compa- another six [in] the pipeline.”23 ny’s plans to open 10 to 12 new manufacturing plants across a Despite expanding capacity and nearly 10 percent growth greater number of Mainland provinces over the coming three in port calls by international cruise lines, China Cruise & Yacht to five years.33 Industry Association vice president Zheng Wei-hang told Reu- Meanwhile, The Coca-Cola Company opened three bot- ters that rapid construction had eliminated profits and that “all tling plants in 2010 (in Inner Mongolia, Henan and Guang- five established cruise terminals have suffered losses mainly as a dong), which brought the total number to 42 in the PRC result of excessive investment by municipal authorities in build- alone,34 and in September 2011 announced a planned invest- ing landmark structures that have yielded insufficient returns.”23 ment of $4 billion before 2014, most of which will be spent on

216 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

有报道称，受其扩张野心所害，中国酒店业在过去 之前使中国的麦当劳连锁店达到2000间。该公司在2010年 几年里一直处境艰难。现在，国内旅游业的崛起为2015 已经增加25%的投资，并计划在2011年在增加40%28。2010 年的中国酒店业带来一场“人人叫好的逆转”。每间可 年8月，麦当劳公司与昆明诺仕达集团签署第一份在华发 供出租客房收入是一个用于衡量酒店入住率的行业指 展式特许经营合作协议，诺仕达集团将帮助麦当劳品牌在 标。2015年第三季度，中国酒店业平均每间可供出租客 中国内地拓展市场。29 房收入比去年同期增长0.3%，这是过去四年里第一次没 有出现负增长。北京市高端酒店住宿服务需求量增速几 就像百胜集团一样，麦当劳公司2012年10月的同店 乎是供给量增速的两倍，这是一个值得注意的变化。中 销售额也比上年同期有所下降。27 国旅游业曾经受到过度扩张、供大于求和外部因素的制 约，例如全国性反腐败运动就严重压缩了豪华酒店住宿 最近，路透社报道称，“因为中国消费者越来越喜 的需求。 欢选择更健康的饮食”，麦当劳餐厅、百胜饮食集团和 其他快餐连锁在中国市场的增长放缓。30 但是，这些制约因素尚未完全消失。根据评级机 构惠誉国际的数据，中国酒店房间空置率仍然高达 有几个原因导致百胜集团今年销售量出现下降。首 40%，原因就在于上文提到的过度扩张。尽管如此，官 先，中国中央电视台有报道指控百胜集团的某些禽类供 方数据显示，2015年上半年，中国国内旅游支出达到 应商滥用抗生素；其次，2013年4月爆发禽流感对禽类 1.65万亿元，比去年同期增长14.5%。虽然越来越多中 消费产生较大影响。另外，上海食品药品监督管理局调 国游客出国旅游，但国内旅游在中国旅游总支出的比 查对受污染的“速成鸡”做出调查。但是百胜中国并没 例仍然超过80%。惠誉国际分析人员估计，由于国内旅 有因此被起诉，或者受到罚款。至于详细情况，可见下 游景点吸引力增加，价格降低，越来越多家庭有条件 文关于中央电视台对在华外资企业的评论报道。31 出去旅游，在未来五年中国国内旅游支出的年增长率 将会高达两位数。 含糖饮料生产商百事可乐公司也同样在中国加大投 资，但主要用于基础设施建设和研发上。据报道，2012 中国邮轮旅游业也增长迅速，虽然引入中国的时间 年之前，百事可乐公司将投入资金共25亿美元，在中国 还不足十年。在此期间，“已建成五个邮轮码头，估计 四个省份扩建生产线，建立针对亚洲市场市场新产品的 耗资超过45亿元人民币（相当于7.35亿美元）。目前在 研发中心，并提高农业材料生产和建立品牌。32 建的码头还有三个，另有六个码头正在准备兴建。” 23 2011年11月底，《中国日报》报道了该公司的发 中国邮轮旅游业规模正逐渐扩大，接待国际邮轮的 展计划，预计在未来3到5年内在中国内地更多省份开设 数量也较往年增长近10个百分比，虽然如此，中国交通 10-12家新工厂。33 运输协会邮轮游艇分会副会长郑炜航在接受路透社采访 时表示，邮轮码头的建设狂潮已经侵蚀利润，而且“因 在2010年内，可口可乐公司新建了三间装瓶工厂（ 为市政当局过度投资建设回报不足的地标性建筑，五大 分别在内蒙古、河南和广东），目前该公司在中国的装 已经建成的邮轮码头基本上都处于亏损状态。” 23 瓶工厂数量达到42间。342011年9月，可口可乐公司宣布 了投资计划，预计在2014年之前在华投资40亿美元，主 另外一方面，餐饮及饮料企业已经（也将可能继 要用于改善装瓶工厂以及配送基础设施。35 续）保持强劲增长。因管理必胜客和肯德基特许专营店 而知名的百胜餐饮集团，计划于2009年间在中国开设 继2011-2014年的投资计划之后，2013年年底，可 500家新店铺——占该集团全球开店计划的三分之一24。 口可乐公司宣布，将于2015-2017年间在中国追加投资 同样令人振奋的是，百胜饮食集团2010年第二季度在中 40亿美元，并计划建设更多新厂。30 国地区的收入增长了33个百分点，而在美国市场只增长 了10个百分点。252011年第一季度，百胜饮食集团在中 可口可乐公司的一名女发言人表示，可口可乐“也 国再开设了92家新店；最近，该集团调整后的营业利润 希望与本地企业进行合作。” 30 增长了18% 。26 驻上海的一名分析人士评论道，“饮料市场目前 “2012第四季度，百胜饮食集团在中国的同店销售 的竞争相当激烈，可口可乐必须开展更多并购活动， 额下降了4%，而上年同期增长了21%。”尽管如此，据 而不是通过内生增长来谋求发展。”然而，市场数据 《华尔街日报》在2012年12月消息，百胜集团仍然计划 显示，“可口可乐仍然是中国市场最大的饮料制造 在2013年在中国新开700家门店。27 商。2012年，可口可乐在中国市场占有率为16%。” 30

据报道，百胜集团的竞争对手麦当劳公司计划2013年 丹麦啤酒商嘉士伯因为增持中国重庆啤酒股份达

217 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

improving its bottling and distribution infrastructure.35 projected 150 million new urban consumers by 201538 reinforce Following up on its 2011-2014 investment plan, in late 2013 China’s importance as a strategic location globally. Coca-Cola announced its intent to an additional $4 billion to build more manufacturing plants in China between 2015 and Notable Policy Activity 2017.30 A Coca-Cola spokeswoman noted that the company “is also 2007 Revision of the Catalog for the Guidance of Foreign In- open to deals with local firms.”30 vested Enterprises “The beverage market is quite competitive right now and Note: This section has been left intact from the 2008 edition to Coke is going to have to do a lot more acquisitions rather supplement the discussion of declining foreign investment in the than growing through organic growth,” commented a Shang- hospitality industry above hai-based analyst. Nevertheless, market data indicates that “Co- As always, while it is clearly the prerogative of the Chinese ca-Cola is still the leading drinks maker in China [and] held 16 state to adjust regulatory policy to best guide the domestic percent market share by total volume in 2012.”30 economy according to development goals, the issue at hand for Danish brewer Carlsberg, meanwhile made headlines by foreign investors is not the policy itself but the way in which it expanding its ownership of the domestic Chongqing Brewery is implemented. In this case, the revisions to the Catalog for the for a total stake of 60 percent. “As majority shareholder it will Guidance of Foreign Invested Enterprises were released to the be easier for Carlsberg to implement efficiency programs to -in public (in Chinese) on November 7, 2007, and effective De- crease profitability, and integrate the business with its existing cember 1, 2007, placed foreign participation in “Construction breweries in China,” Reuters observed.36 and operation of high-ranking hotels, villas, high-class office “The Chinese beer market is estimated to be worth around buildings and international exhibition centers” under the “Re- 451 billion yuan ($74 billion) in 2013 with a volume of 53 bil- stricted” category. The 23 days between first notice and the new lion liters, analysis agency Euromonitor said.”36 rules becoming effective is an extremely short period of time for Finally, international coffee behemoth Starbucks was at- companies to asses and react to the new environment. While tacked on apparently political grounds in a high-profile CCTV this particular change may not affect the many foreign com- broadcast accusing the company of unfair pricing. panies managing locally-owned properties, this method may “The 18-minute Starbucks report, which appeared to use hid- continue to undermine investor confidence in other—encour- den cameras, showed CCTV reporters in Beijing, Chicago and aged—sectors. Mumbai asking people on the street what they thought about the price and value of Starbucks coffee,” writesReuters . “It criticized “Regulations on Travel Agencies” the Seattle-based company for charging higher prices than in oth- In March of 2009 People’s Daily reported that according to ers markets, which it said helped Starbucks earn “fat” profit mar- new regulations that were to take effect on May 1, 2009, foreign gins given its costs in China were not very high.”37 investors would be permitted to own and operate travel agen- The piece was reportedly instigated by a non-editorial ex- cies within China. The paper reported that: ecutive and appeared to be part of a series of attacks on foreign brands which also included attacks on Apple, Samsung Elec- According to promises China made for entry into the tronics, Yum! Brands’ KFC restaurants and GlaxoSmithKline WTO, the new regulation stipulates that in addition to in addition to carmakers Audi, Subaru and Jaguar Land Rover.37 Chinese-foreign equity and contractual joint ventures, It was quickly criticized for its unprofessionalism. “Internet foreign investors can also set up foreign travel agencies. users chided the network for tackling a minor issue compared An official from the National Tourism Administration to China’s many challenges. Economists said CCTV had failed said foreign travel agencies will be entitled to national to grasp the concept of supply and demand, noting it was nor- treatment in the three major tourism markets—in- mal for a company to charge different prices for its products in bound, outbound and domestic tours.39 different countries.”37 “Chinese government bodies and state-owned firms are usu- Of note, however, is that foreign enterprises will not, at first, ally too sensitive to investigate, putting foreign companies in be permitted to operate outbound tours—a clear competitive the firing line for hard-hitting corporate stories,” experts told advantage in their favor due to their experience and expertise Reuters.37 outside of China—until they have operated for two years “with- While foreign investment by major multinational corporations out receiving administrative punishment for infringing on tour- looks to remain strong, vagaries in franchising law may provide ists’ legal rights and interests.”39 a hurdle to small- and medium-sized enterprises looking to In September 2010 these regulations were revised to allow enter China, even as growth in consumer spending ability and a foreign-domestic joint-ventures to organize outbound tours

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60%而登上新闻头条。路透社认为，“成为最大的股东 一如往常，根据国内经济发展目标调控政策是中国 之后，嘉士伯可以更方便执行效率方案以提高利润率， 政府权利，但对外商企业来说，政策本身不存在问题， 同时也有利于整合重庆啤酒业务和嘉士伯原本的在华业 只是执行的方式有些问题。比如，政府在2007年11月7 务。” 36 日颁布了修订后的“外商投资产业指导目录”，该目录 从2007年12月1日起实施，限制外商投资“高档宾馆、 据市场研究机构欧睿信息咨询（Euromonitor）的数 别墅、高档写字楼和国际会展中心的建设、经营。”新 据显示，“2013年中国啤酒市场估计价值大约为4510亿 规定从发布到实施仅有23天，对企业认识和适应新环境 元人民币（相当于740亿美元），啤酒生产量达到530亿 来说是非常短的时间。尽管这一特殊的变化并没有对很 公升。” 36 多管理本地业主物业的外商企业来说产生什么影响，但 这种方式可能影响在其他“鼓励投资”领域经营的外商 最后，中国中央电视台高调播出一份调查专题片， 的信心。 指责国际咖啡巨头星巴克对中国消费者收取了过高费 用。星巴克遭到攻击明显是出于政治原因。 《旅行社条例实施细则》

路透社介绍说，“这条报道星巴克的专题片长达18 根据2009年3月份《人民日报》的报道，根据2009 分钟。在片中，记者在北京、芝加哥和孟买街头访问行 年5月1日起生效的《旅行社条例实施细则》，外商投资 人，用隐藏摄像头记录下了他们对星巴克咖啡价格和价 者允许在中国境内拥有和经营旅行社。报道如下： 值的看法。报道批评了星巴克对中国消费者收取更高价 格的做法，并指出：由于星巴克在中国的成本并不是很 根据中国加入世贸组织的承诺，新的条例规 高，咖啡价格高昂帮助星巴克获取丰厚利润。”37 定，除了中外合资与中国合作企业外，外国投 资者可以在中国设立外资旅行社。国家旅游局 据称，这是由一名非执行编辑策划的专题报道， 的官员表示，外资旅行社将在入境、出境以及 是央视今年对外国品牌发起的一系列攻击之一，除了奥 国内三大旅游市场上享受国民待遇。39 迪、斯巴鲁、捷豹和路虎等几家汽车制造商外，还包括 苹果、三星电子、百胜餐饮集团旗下的肯德基餐厅、英 然而，值得注意的是，外国企业将首先获准经营出 国制药公司葛兰素史克等外国品牌。37 境旅游——因为他们在中国以外的经验和专业知识使之 拥有明显的竞争优势——凡经营满两年，“且未因侵害 该专题片播出之后，央视马上被批评“不够专 旅游者合法权益”受到行政机关处罚的外资旅行社即可 业”。“中国网民们批评说，相对于中国面临的许多 申请经营出境旅游业务。39 挑战而言，央视抓住的问题很小。经济学家则认为央 视未能够理解供给和需求的本质，一个公司针对不同 2010年9月，中国修订了上述管理规定，允许中外 37 国家为自己的产品做出不同的定价是很正常的。” 合资旅行社经营国内出境旅游业务。参与出境旅游业务 的此类旅行社，必须增存质量保证金120万元。此次公 有消息人士向路透社透露，“因为中国政府机构和 布的暂行办法并没有提及外商独资企业，显然目前外商 国有企业通常过于敏感而不能调查，所以只能将关注点放 独资旅行社仍然不得经营国内出境旅游业务。40 在外国企业上，以获得有影响力的企业新闻报道。” 37

旅游法草案打击“旅行社不当经营” 虽然主要跨国公司进行的外商投资依然保持强 劲，尽管中国不断提高的消费能力和到2015年预计增 2012年8月，中国全国人大常委会审议了一份“明 加的1.5亿城市消费者稳固了中国的全球重要战略地 确游客权利”的法律草案。如果草案审议通过，将会成 位，但多变的特权法可能成为中小企业希望进入中国 为中国第一部规范旅游行业的法律。41 的绊脚石。38 有意思的是，中国旅游研究院院长戴斌说，“早 重要政策变动 在三十多年前就已经提出了旅游立法的动议，但是进展 非常缓慢，部分原因在于旅游业由100多个政府部门监 督，并由中央和地方政府共同管理。”41 《外商投资产业指导目录（2007年修订）》 《中国日报》的报道也简要地总结了该草案的要点： 注：该部分从2008年版起完整保留旨在补充说明前 文中关于酒店业外商投资下降的论述 草案对旅行业务和旅游景区设立了经营标准， 禁止旅行社强迫游客购物。

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for Mainland citizens, with the requirement that a deposit of by the State Council. In a report, the United Nations World 1.2 million yuan must be paid in order to obtain a license for Tourism Organization (UNWTO) hailed the document as a the activity, among others. Wholly-foreign owned enterprises “landmark” will see the complete redefinition of tourism devel- apparently remain prohibited from organizing outbound tours opment and management in the country, spark an increase in for Mainland citizens, as no changes for that category are artic- Chinese outbound tourism and promote a greater distribution ulated in the release.40 of the economic, socio-cultural and environmental benefits of tourism.” The document also “presents a roadmap for restruc- Draft Law to Combat “Sharp Practices by Travel Agents” turing the current paid leave system across China.”42 As of August 2012, the National People’s Congress was re- viewing a draft law that would “clearly [state] the rights of trav- New Direction in National Tourism Strategy elers” which, if passed, would become the first-ever legislation In March 2013, China embarked on a new direction in in the PRC to cover the tourism industry.41 its national tourism strategy when The Outline for National Interestingly, President Dai Bin of the China Tourism Acad- Tourism and Leisure (2013-2020), which had been long emy claims that “A motion for legislation was raised more than advocated by the China National Tourism Administration, three decades ago, but the process was slow, partly because the was issued by the State Council. In a report, the United tourism industry is supervised by more than 100 government Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) hailed the organizations—and administrated by both central and local document as a “landmark” will see the complete redefinition of authorities.”41 tourism development and management in the country, spark an The gist of the draft is, again courtesy ofChina Daily: increase in Chinese outbound tourism and promote a greater distribution of the economic, socio-cultural and environmental The draft law sets operating standards for travel busi- benefits of tourism.” The document also “presents a roadmap nesses and scenic areas, and prohibits travel agencies for restructuring the current paid leave system across China.”42 from forcing tourists to purchase goods.

Tipping will be at the discretion of the tourist, it states.

The draft targets agencies offering so-called free tours, or even incentive tours, where the traveler is given a small amount of cash or a gift.

These tours operate on a kickback system. Tourists are taken to shops at pre-determined sites where goods are often sold at inflated prices, and the agency gets a kick- back.41

Other stipulations include that “Ticket prices should fol- low government pricing and any change in price should be an- nounced to the public six months before implementation” and also that “Scenic spots should control the maximum number of tourists, to ensure safety, especially on public holidays.”41 As of December 5, 2012, no mention of the law beyond the original reports of its draft form being read by the National Peo- ple’s Congress could be found, either on China Daily’s website or in a broader Google query for “china tourism law”.

New Direction in National Tourism Strategy In March 2013, China embarked on a new direction in its national tourism strategy when The Outline for National Tour- ism and Leisure (2013-2020, which had been long advocated by the China National Tourism Administration, was issued

220 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

草案明确规定由游客决定是否支付小费。

草案针对某些旅行社的不当经营手段作出相应 规范，包括所谓零团费游，或者给游客赠送现 金或者礼品的负团费游。

违法旅行团按照一种回扣商业模式运作。游客 被带去指定的旅游购物点购买高价商品，旅行 社从中抽取回扣。41

其他规定包括“景区门票价格应实行政府指导价， 价格变动应提前6个月向公众公布”。此外，“为了保证 安全，旅游景区应实行游客流量控制制度，特别在公众假 期，游客数量不得超过景区最大承载量。”41

截止至2012年12月5日，在《中国日报》网站和谷歌 搜索输入“中国旅游法”，搜索结果除了最初关于全国人 大常委会审议草案的报道外，没有任何关于该草案后续情 况的消息。

国家旅游发展战略的新方向

2013年3月，中国国务院正式发布《国民旅游休闲纲 要（2013-2020）》（简称《纲要》）。这是中国国家旅 游局长期推动的结果，也为国家旅游发展战略提出了新的 方向。在一份报告中，联合国世界旅游组织称赞《纲要》 具有“里程碑式意义”，将会为中国重新定义旅游业发展 和管理，增加中国出境游数量，促进旅游对经济发展、社 会文化和环境保护作出更大的贡献。”《纲要》也是“中 国改革目前的职工带薪年休假制度的路线图”。42

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8 “Lodgings, Catering Retail Sales Drop Amid Financial Crisis.” 20 James T. Arredy and Fanfan Wong. “Chinese Hotels Drop Stars to China Daily. December 20, 2008. http://chinadaily.com.cn/ Score Political Points.” TheWall Street Journal. January 23, 2014. bizchina/2008-12/20/content_7325055.htm. http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/01/23/chinese-hotels- drop-stars-to-score-political-points/. 9 “The Survey of Foreign Investment in China’s Catering Industry in 2009.” Invest in China. http://www.fdi.gov.cn/pub/FDI_EN/ 21 Farah Master. “China Gambles On Theme Park, Whale Sharks Economy/Sectors/Service/Catering/t20101109_128105.htm. to Lure Punters from Macau Casinos.” Reuters. October 5, 2013. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/05/us-china-hengqin- 10 “The Survey of Foreign Investment in China’s Accommodation idUSBRE9940CQ20131005. Industry in 2009.” Invest in China. November 9, 2010. http:// www.fdi.gov.cn/pub/FDI_EN/Economy/Sectors/Service/ 22 “Hengqin: Chimelong Ocean Kingdom to Open Before Hotels/t20101109_128108.htm. CNY.” Macau Daily Times. January 13, 2014. http://www. macaudailytimes.com.mo/macau/49841-hengqin-chimelong- 11 Andy Scott. “New Guidelines for FDI Creating Confusion, ocean-kingdom-to-open-before-cny.html. Uncertainty in Real Estate Sector.” China Briefing. November 15, 2007. http://www.china-briefing.com/news/2007/11/15/new- 23 Brian Yap. “Rough Seas Forecast for China’s Fast-growing Cruise guidelines-for-fdi-creating-confusion-uncertainty-in-real-estate- Industry.” Reuters. August 15, 2013. http://www.reuters.com/ sector.html. article/2013/08/15/us-china-cruise-idUSBRE97E05820130815.

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24 Lisa Baertlein. “Yum Can Reach 15-20 Profit Growth in China: 35 Michael Wei. “Coca-Cola to Spur Per Capita Sales in China.” China CFO.” Reuters. December 10, 2008. http://www.reuters.com/ Daily. September 6, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/usa/ article/businessNews/idUSTRE4B96VW20081210?rpc=77. us/2011-09/06/content_13626599.htm.

25 Ben Rooney “China: The New Fast Food Nation.”CNN . July 14, 36 Teis Jensen and Adam Jourdan. “Carlsberg Buys Controlling Stake 2010. http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/13/news/companies/ in China’s Chongqing Brewery.” Reuters. December 5, 2013. http:// Yum_Brands/index.htm. www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/05/us-chongqingbrewery- carlsberg-idUSBRE9B416520131205. 26 “Yum Brands Profit Rises on China Growth.”China Daily. April 21, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/usa/us/2011-04/21/ 37 Megha Rajagopalan. “Insight: China CCTV Starbucks Report Set content_12370771.htm. Off Storm Inside Network.”Reuters . December 12, 2013. http:// www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/12/us-china-cctv-insight- 27 Laurie Burkitt. “KFC Owner Hits Snag in China.” The Wall Street idUSBRE9BB17A20131212. Journal. December 2, 2012. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100 01424127887323401904578154543575535784.html. 38 Alan Beebe. “Winning in China’s Mass Markets.” IBM with the Economist Intelligence Unit. 2007. 28 Michael Wei and Margaret Conley. “Getting Into Harvard Easier Than McDonald’s University in China.” Bloomberg. January 26, 39 “Foreign Investors Allowed to Set-up Foreign Travel Agencies in 2011. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-26/getting- China.” People’s Daily. March 19, 2009. http://english.peopledaily. into-harvard-easier-than-mcdonald-s-hamburger-university-in- com.cn/90001/90776/6617855.html. china.html. 40 “国家旅游局、商务部33号令:《中外合资经营旅行社试点 29 Li Woke. “McDonald’s Licensed for Expansion.” China Daily. 经营出境旅游业务监管暂行办法》.” The National Tourism September 26, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2011- Administration of the People’s Republic of China. September 09/26/content_13789094.htm. 6, 2010.http://www.cnta.gov.cn/html/2010-9/2010-9-6-11-7- 32955.html. 30 “Coca-Cola Says to Invest Over $4 Billion in China in 2015-2017.” Reuters. November 7, 2013. http://www. 41 Tan Zhongyang. “Draft Law ‘to Ensure Tourists Get A Better Deal’”. reuters.com/article/2013/11/08/us-cocacola-china- China Daily. August 28, 2012. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ idUSBRE9A704H20131108. china/2012-08/28/content_15710450.htm.

31 Lisa Baertlein and Adam Jourdan. “Diners Say Not Biting on 42 “China´s New Landmark Tourism Strategy: The Outline for Na- KFC’s China Revival Campaign.” Reuters. December 4, 2013. tional Tourism and Leisure (2013-2020)”. United Nations World http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/04/us-yum-china- Tourism Organization, Regional Programme for Asia and the Pa- safety-idUSBRE9B30HX20131204. cific. March 2013. http://asiapacific.unwto.org/en/news/2013- 03-21/china-s-new-landmark-tourism-strategy-outline-nation- 32 “PepsiCo to Invest $2.5 Billion in China Over Next Three Years.” al-tourism-and-leisure-2013-2020 PepsiCo. May 25, 2010. http://www.pepsico.com/PressRelease/ PepsiCo-to-Invest-25-Billion-in-China-Over-Next-Three- 43 “No More Empty Prospects for China Hotels.” South China Years05212010.html. Morning Post. December 4, 2015. http://www.scmp.com/busi- ness/companies/article/1886523/no-more-empty-prospects-chi- 33 Li Woke. “PepsiCo Plans to Expand with Provincial Project.” na-hotels November 10, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2011- 11/10/content_14068822.htm.

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2.9 Services

he service sector, often denoted as tertiary in- the contribution of the Mainland’s service sector to overall Tdustry and involving the trade of non-tangible goods such GDP from 43 to 47 percent.7 as accountancy, advertising, financial, legal and information Reuters observes that “One caveat to development is the technology services, is enjoying greater emphasis from both the need for a liberalized financial sector, making it easier for non- government and the private sector as China moves gradually state firms and more small- and medium-enterprises to raise away from the manufacturing that has characterized its first 30 funds via bank loans or the financial markets.”8 years since “opening up.” According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Vice Premier Wang Qishan was explicit in this emphasis in the total added-value achieved by the nation’s service sector in his welcome remarks to the International Investment Forum 2009 surpassed 13 trillion yuan. This estimate was, in fact, a re- 2008 at the China International Fair for Investment and Trade vision of earlier reports placing the total at approximately 12 (CIFIT), held annually in Xiamen between September 8 and trillion yuan.9 11, offering that “FDI will be encouraged to flow into high-tech Illustrative of the service sector’s continuing progress is the industry, modern agriculture, energy-saving and environmen- recent history of accountancy in China. As related by Vice Min- tal-friendly industry, modern services and service outsourcing ister of Finance Jun Wang in 2006 to the 17th World Congress businesses.”1 of Accountants, “To meet the demand of reform and opening Vice Premier Wang’s remarks echoed the 2007 “Opinions of up, China recovered its certified public accountant (CPA) sys- the State Council concerning Accelerating the Development of tem in the early 1980s. In the early 1990s, China opened its the Service Sector,” which cited the 11th Five-year Plan’s target accounting market. And in the new century, the country is ac- that “the ratio of the added value of the service sector to the tively promoting international convergence of accounting and GDP should have exceeded 50 percent” by 2020, among other auditing standards in accordance with the development trend metrics for the sector’s growth.2 of global economy and international standards.”10 The importance of the service industries to China’s continu- The Vice Minister further reported that “the number of ac- ing economic growth is often noted by officials. In addressing counting professionals has constantly increased. By the end of the inaugural meeting of China’s Service Trade Association 2005, over 10 million people have got the Accounting Quali- in January of 2008, Vice Minister of Commerce Yi Xiaozhun fication Certificate, more than 140,000 people have had CPA noted that although the “service trade is an important part of qualification, and around 5,700 accounting firms have been -es global trade… there is a great gap between service trade and the tablished in China. The service provided by CPAs in China has service industry in China, and there is great potential for devel- been extended from foreign-invested companies at the begin- opment.”3 ning of reform and opening-up period to all the areas at present More recently, the broad official emphasis on the “transfor- including SOEs and listed companies.”10 mation of the mode of development” continues to emphasize More recently, it was reported that by 2009 there were in this shift in priorities. In mid-2010 it was estimated that tertiary excess of 15 million holders of Accounting Qualification certif- industry accounted for 43 percent of the nation’s GDP (com- icates11 and 155,000 CPAs.12 pared to its 77 percent share of the United States economy).4 A more recent account of CPA numbers on the Mainland By 2012, this figure hadn’t budged: aReuters analysis pegged provided by China Daily shows 80,000 working for accounting services in China as “[accounting] for just 43 percent of output, firms and an additional 80,000 working in government compared with well over 70 percent in Western countries.”5 agencies.13 2013’s figures saw a modest gain of 2 percent to reach 45 Further steps are being taken to bring the Chinese percent of output; services moreover “overtook manufacturing Accounting Standards (CAS), released in early 2006, more in as the country’s biggest employer in 2011” and “weathered the line with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). global slowdown much better than the factory sector.”6 The Chinese standards, which became effective January 1, This lack of movement on a critical metric suggests only 2007, for companies listed on exchanges, are encouraged for limited success for an earlier strategy of tax increases for manu- private firms also, according to Director General Liu Yuting facturing enterprises being offset with tax breaks for the service of the Accounting Regulatory Department of the Ministry of industry in order to further promote a shift in the Mainland Finance, and ongoing efforts are being made to achieve greater economy’s composition.4 equivalence between the CASs and United States and European A stated goal for the 12th Five-Year Plan period is to increase Union standard practices.14

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2.9 服务业

服务业，通常被称成为第三产业，涉及非实物交易 根据国家统计局（NBS）的统计数据，2009年，中 领域，例如会计、广告、金融、法律和信息技术服务。 国服务业附加值总额超过13万亿元人民币。事实上，政 改革开放三十年来，中国的国有和私营部门的重心均已 府早前预计的数字为12万亿元。9 从典型的制造业逐步向越来越重要的服务业转移。 从近年来会计行业的发展可以窥见中国服务业的持 中国国际投资贸易洽谈会（投洽会）每年9月8－11 续发展。财政部副部长王军在2006年第十七届世界会计 日在厦门举行。王岐山副总理在2008年投洽会年度国际 师大会期间提到，“为了满足改革开放的需要，中国在 投资论坛上的欢迎致辞中明确强调，“鼓励外商直接投 20世纪80年代早期恢复了注册会计师（CPA）制度。在 资进入高科技产业、现代农业、节能及环保行业、现代 90年代初，中国开放了会计市场。进入新世纪，中国按 服务业及服务外包行业。”1 照全球经济的发展趋势和国际标准，积极推进会计审计 准则国际趋同。”10 王副总理的致辞呼应了2007年“国务院关于加快发 展服务业的若干意见”，该文件引述“十一五”规划纲 王军副部长还提到，“会计专业人数在不断增加。 要，“到2020年，基本实现经济结构向以服务经济为主的 截至2005年底，超过1000万人获得了会计从业资格证， 转变，服务业增加值占国内生产总值的比重超过50% 。”2 超过14万人获得注册会计师资格，约5700家会计事务所 在中国成立。注册会计师在中国的服务范围已经从改革 服务业对于中国经济可持续性发展的重要性经常被 开放初期的外商投资企业扩展到所有领域，包括国有企 领导强调。2008年1月，商务部副部长易小准在出席中 业、上市公司等。”10 国服务贸易协会就职会议上指出，“服务贸易是国际贸 易的重要组成部分……中国的服务业与服务贸易存在巨 根据近期的报道，截至2009年，持有会计从业 大差距，但这也是中国服务业发展的巨大潜力。”3 资格证书的人超过1500万11，注册会计师持证者超过 15.5万。12 近年来，中国官方言论普遍强调“转变经济发 展模式”，充分体现政府工作的重点正在向服务业转 《中国日报》统计注册会计师持证者的最新数据显 变。2010年年中，第三产业估计在全国国内生产总值的 示，中国有80000注册会计师任职于会计师事务所，另 比重为43%（在美国该比例是77%）。4 外还有80000任职于政府部门。13

然而，到2012年，中国第三产业比重并无改变。来 中国采取更多深层次步骤，使发布于2006年初的 自路透社的分析报告显示，中国服务业“只占全国经济 《中国会计准则》（CASs）更加符合“国际财务报告 总量的43%，而西方国家服务业比重普遍超过70%。5 准则”（IFRSs）。财政部会计司司长刘玉廷表示， 《中国会计准则》从2007年1月1日起实行于上市公司 2013年，中国第三产业占比稍有上升，比2012年 中，并鼓励私营企业也依照此准则进行财务工作。相 增长两个百分点，达到45%。另外，“在2011年，服务 关更深层次的工作仍在进行当中，力求中国会计准则 业已经超越制造业，成为中国创造就业机会最多的产 更为贴近美国和欧盟标准。14 业”，而且“比制造业更能经受住全球经济危机带来 的冲击。”6 然而，某些矛盾依然存在。由于合并与收购的环 境变得更加注重战略性盈利，外国投资者一般会认为 为了进一步促进中国内地经济结构转型，中国政府 中方（特别是私营企业）提供的财务报表“通常没有 曾经采取的政策是对服务业减税，对制造业增税，以抵 他们（投资者）以前所接收的类似材料一样详细”。 消服务业减税带来的税收缺口。4 因此，“在收购中国的目标企业之前，买家尽职履行 自身的财务和税务审查之职是非常重要的”。15 中国“十二五”规划提出了明确目标，将服务业在 国内生产总值的比重从43%提高至47%。7 最近有几家在外国上市的中国内地企业被证交所停 牌，而有些企业因为审计师提出辞职或涉嫌财务欺诈而 路透社评论文章指出，“中国需要开放金融业，让 接受监管部门调查。这充分说明，内地企业需要恪尽职 非国有企业以及更多中小企业可以通过银行贷款或金融 守、诚信勤勉。16 市场融资，才能实现经济发展的目标。”8

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Nevertheless, some inconsistencies remain, and in an envi- and Young, issued a statement […] saying it wanted to ronment in which mergers and acquisitions are becoming more comply with the rules and hoped the dispute is resolved strategically lucrative, foreign investors are generally advised soon.18 that Chinese financial statements (especially for private compa- nies) “usually do not provide as much information as [investors] The Wall Street Journal’s China Real Time blog offered fur- might be used to receiving” and so it is therefore “important ther context: that buyers perform their own financial and tax due diligence review before acquiring a Chinese target.”15 Hours after its high-profile attack on the Chinese arms Illustrating the need for due diligence, there have been sev- of five major accounting firms Monday, the U.S. Securi- eral recent cases of Mainland IPOs on foreign exchanges being ties and Exchange Commission laid into Chinese regu- delisted and in some cases investigated by exchange regulators lators for their alleged lack of cooperation. for fraudulent accounting, in addition to seeing auditor resig- nations.16 In court papers filed late Monday, the SEC said that By 2012, those investigations had led to “50 China-based since 2009 it had sent its Chinese counterpart, the companies [being] delisted from U.S. exchanges,” with “The China Securities Regulatory Commission, 21 separate SEC [filing] fraud allegations against 40 individuals or compa- requests for assistance in connection with 16 different nies.”17 investigations and hadn’t received any of the requested Moreover, in December 2012 the U.S. Securities and Ex- audit papers or any meaningful assistance. Additionally, change Commission filed a lawsuit against five China-incor- the agency said that long-running negotiations with the porated accounting firms, which lawsuit U.S.-based National CSRC to establish a framework for information sharing Public Radio summarized: had gone nowhere.19

JIM ZARROLI, BYLINE: The suit, which was filed by Given the circumstances, it is likely that the biggest casual- the Securities and Exchange Commission, says U.S. of- ties in this apparent proxy-war between U.S. and Chinese reg- ficials want to investigate nine unnamed Chinese com- ulators will the accounting firms themselves and Chinese firms panies for unspecified reasons. Officials say that because looking to “go global” and list on U.S. exchanges. these companies trade on U.S. stock exchanges, they As of January 2014, this dispute is ongoing. On the 22nd have to turn over their audit documents to American of that month, a “Securities and Exchange Commission regulators. administrative law judge to suspend the Big Four’s China-based affiliates from auditing U.S.-traded companies for six months.” But China insists that doing so would violate its own This decision, writes The Wall Street Journal, moves China rules about corporate secrecy and has steadfastly re- and the U.S. closer to a confrontation over the underlying fused to do so. The dispute has dragged on for several issue of “how much oversight U.S. regulators should have over years with no resolution, says James Feltman, senior companies inside China [which are listed on U.S. exchanges].”20 managing director of Mesirow Financial Services. Advertising is another relatively ‘young’ industry in China, having “returned to the People’s Republic of China in 1979.”21 JAMES FELTMAN: It doesn’t appear as though this The Advertising Law of 1995 officially “legitimated” the is going to get resolved anytime soon. And ultimately, agency system that is the international norm,19 and beginning if Chinese listed companies in the U.S. can’t meet the January 1, 2006, wholly foreign-funded advertising companies requirements, then they’re not going to be able to con- were permitted access to the market in line with China’s WTO tinue to be listed on U.S. exchanges. entry commitments made in 2001.22 The interplay between state-owned media, a quickly-chang- ZARROLI: But the U.S. isn’t ready to lower the boom ing media regulatory environment and overlap in regulatory yet and Feltman called yesterday’s suit a measured re- jurisdiction is often cited as a major source of interestingness, as sponse by the SEC—an attempt to ratchet up the pres- illustrated by changes to tax law in 2000 by the National Bureau sure on China. of Taxation capping corporate advertising expenditure to at 2 percent of gross annual revenue, leading to protests from the State Administration of Industry and Commerce, which is offi- Caught in the middle are the auditing firms, which are cially tasked with oversight of the advertising industry.21 all affiliates of major U.S. accounting firms, like KPMG Despite certain hiccoughs, the advertising sector is without and Deloitte. One of the firms, which is tied to Ernst a doubt promising. In 2006 statistics indicated that the overall

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到了2012年，这些调查导致“50家中国企业从美国 由此可见，这是一场中美两国金融监管部门之间 证券交易所退市”，而且“美国证券交易监督委员会（美 的代理人战争，真正的受害者是会计师事务所以及渴 国证监会）已经针对40名个人或公司提出欺诈指控” 。17 望“走出去”到美国证券市场上市的中国企业。

不但如此，2012年12月美国证监会对五大会计师事 到了2014年1月，这种矛盾仍未解决。1月22 务所设在中国的分公司提出诉讼。美国全国公共广播电 日，“美国证券交易委员会的一位法官裁定，全球四 台（NPR）概述了诉讼的要点： 大会计师事务所中国分支在美上市公司审计业务将暂 停六个月。”《华尔街日报》称，在“美国的监管部 吉姆•扎罗利：美国证监会提出诉讼，要求调查9 门应该对在美国上市的中国公司监督多少”这个重要 家中国公司，但并未公布公司名称和调查原因。 问题上，本次处罚决定让中美两国监管部门的矛盾进 有官员说，被起诉的中国企业在美国证券市场上 一步激化。20 市，所以必须向美国证监会提供审计底稿。 广告业是中国的另一个“新兴”行业，“在1979年 但是，中国坚持认为，这样做会违反中国有关 回到中国”。21 企业保密的规定，所以一直拒绝配合。美国 Mesirow金融服务公司高级常务董事詹姆斯•费尔 1995年起实行的广告法，正式“确立”了代理制度 特曼（James Feltman）说，这一争议已经持续多 这种国际惯例19。从2006年1月1日起，全外资广告公司 年，目前仍未有解决方案。 获准进入市场，以兑现中国在2001年加入世贸组织时所 作的承诺。22 詹姆斯•费尔特曼：这个问题不是一朝一夕可以 解决的。所以，如果中国在美国的上市公司不能 国有媒体、迅速变化的媒体监管环境和监管范围 满足要求，那就不能继续在美国证券市场上市。 重叠的相互作用经常被认为是广告行业特殊性的主要根 源之一。比如，国家税务总局2000年进行的税法变化包 扎罗利：但是，美国并未做好严惩中国企业准 括“纳税人每一纳税年度发生的广告费支出不超过销售 备。费尔特曼认为，提出诉讼是美国证监会深思 （营业）收入2％的，可据实扣除，超过部分可无限期 熟虑之后的举动，目的在于向中国施加压力。 向以后纳税年度结转广告费”。这一变化引起了监管广 告行业的国家工商行政管理总局的反对。21 审计公司被夹在中间左右为难。这些公司都是 美国主要会计师事务所的中国分公司，包括毕 尽管有某些不确定因素存在，毫无疑问广告行业 马威会计师事务所、德勤会计师事务所等。安 是非常有前景的。2006年的统计数据表明，整个广告行 永会计师事务所的分支机构前一天发表声明， 业的整体产值接近150亿美元22。此外，尽管全球广告 表示会遵守两国法律法规，并希望争议尽快得 开支削减了10－15％（广告预算经常在现金流出现问题 到解决。18 时“第一个被牺牲掉”），被《中国日报》转引的一项 研究表明，2008年度中国的广告支出实际增长15％，达 23 《华尔街日报》名下的“中国实时报道”博客为本 到4410亿元 。 次事件提供了更多背景信息： 据报道，虽然遭遇全球经济放缓，2009年全国广告 美国证监会在周一高调向五大会计师师事务所 消费仍然增长了13.5%，242010年则比2009年增长了近 的中国分支机构提起诉讼。仅数小时之后，美 20%，25，高达4420亿美元。26普华永道会计师事务所预 国证监会将矛头对准中国监管部门，指责中国 计，2015年中国广告业消费将达5780亿美元。26 监管部门不愿意提供配合。 在线广告的发展尤其引人瞩目。2008年，中国在线 在周一提交的诉讼文件中，美国证监会称2009 广告消费比上年增长了52%，达到140亿美元。27最近，上 年以来已向中国证券监督管理委员会（中国证 海艾瑞咨询集团（iRerearch Consulting Group）的一份报告 监会）提出21项独立请求，要求中国证监会在 显示，2010年在线广告市场比2009年增长了近60%，总收 16项不同的调查中给予协助，但至今未收到任 入超过50亿美元（虽然还不到美国的五分之一， 2010年 何其要求的审计文件或任何有意义的协助。此 美国在线广告总收入约为260亿美元。）28 外，美国证监会称与中国证监会就建立信息共 享框架的持久谈判未取得任何进展。19 此外，中国广告协会首次出台的“中国互联网广告 推荐使用标准”自2009年1月1日起试行。经过为期一年 的试行与修订后，标准将正式实施29。

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output value of the industry was nearly $15 billion.22Further- China Central Television, the country’s biggest more, despite reported cutbacks in global advertising spending television network, sat quietly Monday on the sidelines by between 10 and 15 percent (advertising budgets are often of its annual advertising auction, a fanfare event typically the “first against the wall” when cash flow becomes an issue), a seen as a barometer for the economy and a muscle show study cited by China Daily indicated that advertising expendi- for the state broadcaster. It broke 20 years of tradition tures in fact grew by 15 percent in China during 2008, reaching by declining to disclose the auction’s final total sales a total of 441 billion yuan.23 figures, inviting only a handful of state reporters to the Despite the global economic slowdown, advertising spend- event and downplaying what it has hyped every year ing reportedly grew by 13.5 percent in 200924 and 2010 expen- before. diture was reported to grow by nearly 20 percent over 2009 values25 to reach $442 billion.26 PwC forecasts this value to in- Marketing experts say CCTV is silent because it has lit- crease to $578 billion by 2015.26 tle to cheer about. Some key advertisers are pulling back The online segment is of particular interest to many, hav- amid a government-led austerity campaign that began ing grown 52 percent year-on-year in 2008 to account for $1.4 last year. Companies—once willing to pay premium billion of spending on its own.27 A later report from Shang- rates for mass marketing to CCTV’s big audiences— hai-based iResearch Consulting Group indicated that the on- are also taking their money to the Web, following their line advertising market had grown by nearly 60 percent in 2010 viewers.35 to account for more approximately $5 billion in revenue (albeit less than a fifth of the estimated $26 billion in online advertis- Unrelated regulatory pressure on ‘infomercials’ 36may also ing revenue recorded in the United States the same year).28 play a factor in media buyers’ decisions; regardless, the world 2009 marked the first time “Recommended Usage Stan- wide web is clearly becoming a dominant platform upon which dards” for online advertising had been compiled by the China brands reach out to Chinese consumers. Advertising Association. The standards came into trial opera- In 2011, the Chinese government announced a new law tion on January 1, 2009 pending a review for amendments a that would prohibit outdoor advertisements that “promote he- year later.29 donistic or high-end lifestyles”. The Jing Daily reported: “The By the first quarter of 2012, “The market size of China’s -on Beijing Administration for Industry and Commerce said in a line advertising reached 14.03 billion yuan ($2.22 billion) [… recent statement that businesses were given an April 15 dead- representing a] 56.2 percent year-on-year increase [but a] 5.6 line to rectify such ads, along with any that excessively promote percent decrease compared to the last quarter of 2011.”30 ‘foreign’ things. It gave no details on which ‘foreign’ things were A 2012 report by PriceWaterhouseCoopers predicted that deemed objectionable. Such promotions help create a political- “Investment in China’s Internet advertising [would] grow by ly ‘unhealthy’ climate, it said. Newly forbidden words include 32.1 percent annually over the next five years.”31 ‘supreme’, ‘royal’, ‘luxury’ or ‘high class’.”72 In contrast, other platforms like newspapers, magazines, TV The banking industry was ‘fully opened’ to foreign partic- and outdoor appeared to have far dimmer futures on the Main- ipation in December 2006, and international financial insti- land: “advertising expenditure in traditional media, including tutions were not slow to enter the market: the China Banking newspapers, magazines, TV, radio and outdoor, increased just Regulatory Commission reported that by the end of that year, 1.4 percent in the first quarter, the lowest in nearly five years,” 74 foreign banks had set up branches, and 186 others had estab- according to a market research service cited by China Daily.32 lished representative offices.37 By the end of 2008, these figures In 2005, there were reportedly 40.4 billion copies of news- were reported to have grown to 196 banks from 46 countries papers, 2.75 billion magazines and 6.4 billion books published having established 237 representative offices38 and 75 banks nationwide, and the 2003 “Administrative Measures on For- from 25 countries having opened 116 branches.39 eign-Invested Book, Newspaper and Periodical Distribution By June 2009, 26 foreign banks had fully incorporated in Enterprises” opened retail (in 2003) and wholesale (in 2004) China;30 A 2010 KPMG study indicated that 37 foreign banks operation in China for foreign-invested enterprises, although had incorporated on the Mainland by the end of July that year.41 administrative approval by the General Administration of Press A study released one year later by PwC saw the number of for- and Publication on a case-by-case basis was coupled to the re- eign banks incorporated rise to 40.42 laxation of the regulations.33 More recent figures provided by Despite growth in the number of incorporations, however, Financial Times indicated that by 2010 newspaper circulation several challenges remain that are unique to foreign banks. An had surpassed 50 billion in 2010.34 earlier PwC study in 2010 had concluded that “While [foreign Television spending is apparently also declining, rounding banks] have continued to be proactive in seeking out new op- out the trend observed in other ‘traditional’ media: portunities, they remain challenged by policy constraints that

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2012年第一季度，“中国在线广告的市场规模达到 媒》报道，“北京市工商局最近发布一份公告，要求企 140.3亿元人民币（22.2亿美元）……比上年同期增长 业在4月15日之前整改宣扬享乐主义和高端生活方式的 了56.2%，但是比2011年第四季度下降了5.6%。”30 户外广告，以及过度推崇‘外国’东西的广告。但是， 公告并没有具体说明哪些‘外国’东西不符合要求。公 普华永道会计师事务所2012年发布的一份报告预 告还说，这些户外广告会导致政治上‘不健康’的风 计“在未来五年里，中国网络广告年均增长幅度将会达 气。禁止使用的词语包括‘至尊’、‘皇家’、‘奢 到32.1%。”31 侈’或‘高级’等。”72

与之截然相反的是，报纸、杂志、电视、户外等广 直到2006年12月，中国的银行业才对外资全面开 告平台在中国内地的发展前景似乎并不乐观。中国日报 放，但国际金融机构并未放缓进入中国市场的脚步：来 引用的一份市场调查指出：“2012年第一季度，各行业 自中国银行业监督管理委员会的数据指出：截止至2006 在传统媒体如报纸、杂志、电视、电台和户外的广告支 年底，共有74家外资银行在中国开设分支机构，另有 出同比仅增长了1.4%，是近五年来的最低点。”32 186家外资银行在中国开设办事处37。截至2008年底，这 一数字已经上升为来自46个国家的196家银行开设了237 据2005年的报道，共有404亿份报纸、27.5亿册 家办事处38，并有25个国家的75家银行开设了116家分 杂志和64亿册图书在全中国范围出版。《外商投资图 行。39 书、报纸、期刊分销企业管理办法》于2003年通过， 对外资企业开放零售（2003年）和批发（2004年）经 截止至2009年6月，已经有26家外资银行全面开展 营，并由新闻出版总署进行逐个行政审批33。《金融时 在华业务30。根据毕马威会计事务所2010年的一份调查 报》最近报道的数据显示，2010年中国的报纸发行量 报告显示，截止至2010年7月底，已经有37家外资银行 超过500亿。34 在内地开设分支机构。41该事务所一年后再次调查时， 在内地开设分支机构的外资银行已达40家。42 电视消费明显也在不断下降，与其他“传统”媒体 呈现的趋势相一致： 尽管在中国设立分支的银行数量有所增加，外资银 行仍然需要面对很多挑战。2010年初，普华永道会计师 中国中央电视台是中国最大的电视网络。在周 事务所的一份调查报告总结道，“虽然[外资银行]积极 一举行的年度广告招标会并没有以往锣鼓喧天 地寻找新机会，他们仍然需要面对很多政策上的限制， 的热闹场面。央视一直对其年度广告招标结果 这些政策决定了外资银行进入中国市场的速度、范围和 进行大力宣传，公布的招标结果被普遍认为是 方向……与此同时，国内银行已经逐步发展，成为提供 未来一年国家经济的晴雨表，也是作为国家媒 多种服务的金融机构，并继续增加服务类型……与此相 体的央视展示其雄厚实力的资本。然而，今年 反，外资银行可以探索的空间却相当小……[外资银行] 央视打破了二十年的传统，拒绝对外公布广告 在中国的市场份额难以提升，原因包括竞争环境不够公 招标预售额，而且只邀请屈指可数的几位官媒 平，经济因素复杂，以及提供的金融产品数量有限。”43 记者出席招标现场，似乎一改往年大肆宣扬的 风格。 虽然如此，“尽管经营环境面临重重挑战，外资银 行仍然坚信中国金融服务市场充满机遇。”43 市场专家说，央视之所以沉默不语，是因为它并 没有什么事情值得庆祝。自从去年政府发起一场 随后，普华永道会计师事务所对外资银行进行跟进 自上而下的节约运动后，一些重要的广告客户纷 调查。调查结果显示，42家受访外资银行均表示有计划增 纷减少广告投放。以往央视曾经凭借其巨大的观 加在华员工数量，并进一步改革在华分支机构。预计到 众群而让广告商心甘情愿支付高额广告费，但随 2014年，外资银行在华员工数量将增加53%。对中国金融 着互联网分流电视观众，这些客户如今也追随观 服务市场深入改革以及未来人民币成为可自由兑换货币的 众的脚步，把广告费转投至网络上。35 期待，使得外资银行对中国金融服务市场保持乐观。42

中国针对“电视购物节目”的监管压力在此似乎 2011年，外资银行在中国内地金融市场的总份额为 42 关系不大，36但可能也是影响媒体购买商决策的一个因 1.83% 。 素。无论如何，互联网显然已经成为各大品牌吸引中国 消费者的主要平台。 “2010年，外资银行总利润增长了24%，虽然增长 幅度低于中国国内银行，但是就在一年前，大部分外资 2011年，中国政府公布了一项新规定，禁止“宣 银行的利润率还在下滑。”这份毕马威会计师事务所的 扬享乐主义和高端生活方式”的户外广告。据《精日传 调查报告说明，仅在一年之内，外资银行的经营状况完

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dictate the pace, scope and direction of their market penetra- Having surveyed the challenges and opportunities, foreign tion… Meanwhile, the domestic banks continue to add to their banks have predominately decided that their future is bright in service offerings as they steadily evolve towards more broadly China, according to an Ernst & Young survey of “38 overseas based multi-service institutions… In contrast, the foreign banks lenders.” “Gradual and successive financial reforms” are fingered are required to navigate a much narrower space… Reasons for as an expected source of “modest improvement” over the next [foreign banks’] lack of growth in market share included an three years.48 un-level playing field, economic factors and a limited product “Foreign lenders see a loosening of controls on interest rates offering.”43 as the key to rebalancing China’s economy, even as the move Nevertheless, “Against this challenging operating environ- may have a short-term effect on their profitability, the survey ment, the participants continue to believe strongly in the future showed,” writes BloombergBusinessweek. “The Communist opportunities of the Chinese financial services market.”43 Party, which pledged in November to give markets a “decisive” PwC’s follow up study reported that the 42 interviewed role in the economy, in July eliminated a floor on lending rates. foreign banks collectively intended to expand their workforce It has yet to remove a ceiling on deposit rates.”48 in China by 53 percent by 2014, and that both further reform The insurance industry remains one of China’s least-pene- and the future transition to a convertible Renminbi were causes trated by foreign firms, a fact which is by some (but not all) for optimism in the Chinese financial services market’s future attributed to particularly long approval processes for activities potential.42 including opening new branches and offering specialty prod- As of 2011, the foreign banks collectively held 1.83 percent ucts.49 By December 2009, 52 foreign insurers had established of the Mainland banking market.42 operations in China.47 Although “In 2010, combined profit for the foreign banks Similar to the banking sector, foreign insurers are reportedly rose 24 percent, slower than China’s major local banks [and in] “struggling due to a joint-venture requirement on life insurance, 2009, most foreign banks saw their profits slide,” a KPMG re- unequal treatment, and stricter regulations and solvency rules port showed that the tables had turned only a year later: “com- following the financial crisis,” issues which reportedly led to bined net profit at the China operations of 33 foreign banks “only three out of 24 foreign life insurers [making] a profit in more than doubled in 2011 from a year earlier, outstripping the 2008.”47 pace of profit growth at local banks.”44 The discrepancy between insurance penetration and density Nevertheless, foreign banks “are still niche players, account- in China and in other industrialized markets is illustrative of ing for less than 2 percent of the banking sector’s total assets the strong growth potential for the Chinese insurance market. […]in part because foreign banks have been allowed to serve It was reported in 2007 that China’s insurance penetration was individual Chinese savers only since 2007, an opening that 2.9 percent with a density of $70.50 In comparison, the average launched a wave of investment by the banks in branches and penetration in industrialized markets is reported at 9.2 percent personnel.”44 with an average density of $3,642.51 Furthermore, the strong profit growth may be difficult to Reportedly, foreign firms’ market share in life and property maintain since “banks [2011] benefited from China’s efforts to insurance amounts to 5.652 and 1 percent53, respectively. tighten lending to curb inflation and surging property prices. A 2009 PriceWaterhouseCoopers study noted that no new in- With loans harder to get, banks were able to charge more. This surance licenses had been granted since October 2008, although a year, banks have posted declines in their net interest margins ‘relaxation’ in that situation was anticipated in late 2009.54 as authorities have cut benchmark interest rates, funding costs This ‘relaxation’ may have consisted of the February 2009 have risen and demand for credit has cooled.”44 announcement by the Standing Committee of the NPC that In early 2006 a personal credit rating system was first estab- amendments to the Insurance Law would become effective on lished to be used as a standard assessment for consumer credit October 1, 2009. Among these amendments were reported- risk. ly the abolishment of a restriction on reinsurance and adjust- China’s consumers were reported to represent approximate- ments to the qualification requirements for major shareholders, ly $2.5 trillion worth of household deposits in 2008.40 The total among others.55 assets of the banking industry furthermore grew by more than In May 2010, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission 17 percent between 2003 and 2007 to reach $7.6 trillion.45 (CIRC) issued a new “Administration Provision on Reinsur- Profits by the industry were reported as $41 billion in 2007.46 ance Business” (CIRC Decree [2010] No. 8), which became ef- In 2009, total banking assets on the mainland were reported to fective in July of the same year. According to a KPMG brief on reach 78 trillion yuan (roughly $11.9 trillion),41although the the new provision, “Decree 8 aims to reinforce the supervision proportion of those held by overseas lenders reportedly shrank of the reinsurance business and promote the sustainable and from 1.84 to 1.71 percent even as their total assets grew.47 healthy development of the industry as a whole.”56

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全改变，“2011年，33家在华开设分支机构的外资银行 中国市场与其他工业化市场在保险渗透度和密度方 实现总净利润率比上年翻了一倍以上，利润增幅超过国 面的差距从一个侧面反映出中国保险市场的巨大增长潜 内银行。”44 力。据报道，2007年中国市场的保险渗透率是2.9％， 密度为70美元50；对比之下，其他工业化市场的平均渗 然而，外资银行“仍然只能主导银行业细分市场， 透度是9.2％，平均密度为3642美元。51 占银行业总资产的比重不到2%……部分原因是中国到 2007年才允许外资银行为中国个人储户提供服务，从那 据报道，外资保险公司在人寿和财产保险的市场份 时起，外资银行才纷纷在中国内地投资建立分支机构， 额分别为5.6%52和1% 53。 增加员工数量。”44 普华永道2009年的另一项研究表明，自2008年10月 此外，外资银行强劲的利润增速可能难以维持，因 以来没有新的保险公司获得经营许可证，尽管在2009年 为“2011年银行（利润激增）得益于中国政府收紧借贷 后期预计这种情况会“放松”。54 以控制通胀和楼价飙升。借贷难度加大，银行就可以收 取更多费用。今年，中国中央银行下调基准利率，令资 这种“放松”可能包括2009年2月全国人大常委 金成本上升，市场对信贷的需求有所降温，各大银行净 会公布的《保险法（修正案）》于2009年10月1日起生 利润率也普遍下降。”44 效。据悉，修正案中废除了关于再保险的限制和大股东 的资格要求等的调整。55 2006年初，个人信贷风险系统首次设立，作为评价 消费信用风险的标准。 2010年5月，中国保险监督管理委员会公布了“ 再保险业务管理条例”（保监会令2010年第8号），自 据悉，2008年中国消费者的家庭存款约达2.5万亿 2010年7月起施行。根据毕马威会计事务所对这份新条 美元40。此外，银行业的总资产从2003年至2007年增加 例的介绍，“第8号令目的在于加强对再保险业务的监 了超过17%，达到7.6万亿美元45。2007年，银行业利润 管，促进再保险行业可持续健康发展。”56 达到410亿美元46。2009年，报道称中国内地的金融业总 资产达到78万亿元人民币（约为11.9万亿美元）41。虽 “第8号令”的出现，似乎是针对当时未公布的30 然外资银行的总资产值有所增长，但是他们所持资产所 亿元人民币（相当于4.55亿美元）诈骗案。此案发生在 占比重却从1.84%下降到1.71% 。47 2009年，牵涉到中国两家最大的保险公司（中国人寿保 险（集团）公司和中国人民保险（集团）公司，均为国 根据安永的一份对“38位外资银行高管”的调查， 有企业），于2011年初向公众披露。57 外资银行在充分了解中国金融环境的机遇和挑战之后， 大多认为它们在中国的前景一片光明。多数受访银行相 美国国际集团（AIG）实际上是1919年在中国上海 信，“中国持续推进金融改革”将会令外资银行在未来 成立的企业，比中华人民共和国成立还早几十年。2012 三年的业绩会有“适度改善”。48 年，AIG公布消息，表示已与中国人民保险集团公司（中 国人保）签署一项非约束性方案，将在中国人保在香港 《彭博商业周刊》报道说，“调查显示，外资银 举行的首次公开发行（IPO）中认购5亿美元股份。该协 行认为放松利率管制是中国经济成功转型的关键，即便 议内容还包括双方成立合资企业，在中国内地销售人寿 此举可能在短期内对盈利造成一定影响。中国执政党在 保险产品。58 2013年11月承诺要让市场发挥‘决定性’作用，在7月 宣布全面放开贷款利率管制，但中国尚未放松存款利率 以往外资保险公司可以在中国销售汽车商业保险， 限制。” 48 但是不得经营强制第三方责任险业务（交强险）。《白 皮书》供稿者协力管理咨询有限公司（Dezan Shira & As- 保险业是外资企业在华渗入最少的行业，究其部分 sociates）指出，“大多数机动车主会选择同一家保险公 原因，是开设新分支机构和开发新产品的审批流程特别 司购买汽车强制保险和商业险，所以中国的限制‘有效 繁复49。截至2009年12月，有52家外资保险企业在中国 地阻止了外资公司’进入中国市场。”59 开展经营。47 2011年，当时的国务院副总理王岐山在一次中美战 与金融业一样，在华外资保险公司的日子也“不好 略与经济对话会议上表示，中国未来可能向外资保险公 过”。据报道“人寿保险业务需要合资经营，外资保险 司开放交强险市场，“（希望）经验丰富的西方保险公 公司受到不公平待遇，金融危机之后面临更加严格的管 司为中国这个快速增长的新兴保险市场带来更好的定价 理和赔偿规定”，这些问题导致“2008年，在24家外资 方法和保险服务。”59 人寿保险公司中，只有3家获得赢利”.47

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It would appear that “Decree 8” was a response to the and the company was fined 2.69 million yuan.”62 then-undisclosed 3 billion yuan fraud (approximately $455 mil- At roughly the same time, “more than 100 Tesco employees lion) committed by the two largest insurers in China (China went on strike in eastern China. The employees blockaded and Life Insurance (Group) Company and People’s Insurance Com- prevented shoppers from entering a Tesco store due to a labor pany (Group) of China, both state-owned) in 2009, which was dispute.”62 revealed to the public in early 2011.57 One question that remains unaddressed in many Mainland American International Group—a company which was reports of foreign supermarkets’ troubles is that of culpability; actually founded in Shanghai in 1919, several decades before determining if wrongdoing has had the tacit support of more the People’s Republic was proclaimed—made news in 2012 senior executives or has rather been the work of greedy ‘rogue as a signatory to a non-binding agreement to purchase $500 actors’ at the individual store level seems to be left as an exercise million-worth of shares in a Hong Kong IPO planned by the for the reader. People’s Insurance Company of China. The agreement also in- The situation has not lately improved for the embattled re- cluded a planned joint venture between the two companies to tailers. sell life insurance within the Mainland.58 By 2013 Tesco had begun to “shut Chinese outlets and open Historically, foreign insurance companies have been per- new ones more slowly two years after announcing plans to dou- mitted to sell optional auto insurance in China but have been ble stores and build more 400,000-square-foot malls,” writes barred from offering Mandatory Third-party Liability (MTPL) BloombergBusinessweek. “Hindered by the country’s slowest coverage. White Paper contributors Dezan Shira & Associates economic growth since the 2009 financial crisis and competi- note that “Since most drivers tend to choose the same insurer tion from local markets and regional chains, the Cheshunt, En- for both optional and compulsory coverage, China’s restriction gland-based retailer’s China same-store sales declined 1 percent ‘has effectively blocked foreign firms.’”59 in the second quarter.”63 In 2011 then-Vice Premier Wang Qishan, at a session of “Tesco’s China pullback reflects the hurdles global big box the U.S.-China Strategic & Economic Dialogue, indicated that retail chains face in Asia,” the article continues, “where the real- foreign insurers may in the future be allowed to offer MTPL ities of complex local markets and slowing economies are damp- coverage, “[in the hope that] experienced Western players will ing dreams of easy expansion. The world’s largest retailer, Wal- bring better pricing and underwriting practices to the country’s Mart, is also adding outlets more gradually than it had planned young, fast-growing market.”59 in China’s 3.5 trillion yuan ($560 billion) grocery industry.”63 Foreign retailers’ Mainland experiences have been mixed in Whether more or less gradually, Wal-Mart recently an- recent years. nounced plans to open “up to 110 facilities in China between Home Depot, purveyors of home improvement supplies, 2014 and 2016, in addition to the 30 it has already opened closed seven stores in China over the course of 2012, incurring [2013].” The company also plans to “profit from China’s chang- “an 11-cent charge” to its earnings per share.60 ing retail landscape by embracing e-commerce.” A major com- Meanwhile, “Wal-Mart said store traffic in China declined ponent of that strategy is likely to be its subsidiary Yihaodian, again [in Q3 2012].”61 “which claims 24 million registered users and provides same- Wal-Mart, “the world’s largest retailer by sales revenue, en- day delivery services to customers.”64 tered China in 1996”, “Nine years later […] had more than 70 China’s information technology sector continues to devel- stores” and as of mid-2012 “[had] more than 376 outlets and op. The total value of exported software and services was esti- more than 95,000 employees in China.”57 mated at $1.8 billion in 2006. In 2008, this figure was project- Carrefour and Tesco, the world’s second- and third-largest ed to grow by more than 30 percent through 2011.64 January retailers by revenue, had 206 and 111 stores in Mainland China, to July of 2011 saw a year-on-year growth rate of 15.7 percent respectively.57 in exports, accounting for in excess of $15 billion. Revenues in Foreign supermarkets, especially, have seen difficulties aris- the sector were reported to have grown by 29.6 percent to reach ing from pricing, misrepresentation and employee disputes. 958.8 billion yuan (approximately $152 billion) in the same In January 2011, the NDRC “fined 11 Carrefour stores in period.65 six cities 500,000 yuan ($78,440) each for overcharging cus- According to the U.S. Foreign Commercial Service, the soft- tomers” at the same time that “some Wal-Mart stores were also ware industry is a major focus of the central government but caught using illegal pricing methods.”57 remains diverse and “highly fragmented,”66 with the PRC, with Issues persisted, however. In October 2012, “Wal-Mart the National Copyright Administration reporting an estimated closed more than a dozen stores in Chongqing following alle- 80,000 registered software products as of 2010.67 gations that it had labeled regular pork as organic pork in some Finally, China’s telecommunications sector is of continuing stores. Two employees were arrested, another 35 were detained, interest for both foreign and domestic firms, although foreign

234 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

近年来，外资零售企业在中国内地的经营状况有好 和区域连锁店的竞争拖累，这家英国大型零售商在中国 有坏。 市场第二季度的销售额下跌了1%。” 63

美国家具建材零售商家得宝（Home Depot）反在 文章继续说道，“乐购在中国发展受挫，反映了全 2012年一年就关闭了在中国的所有7家家具建材零售商 球大型连锁零售商在亚洲面临的障碍。中国复杂的本地 店，令公司每股收益损失11美分。60 市场环境和经济增速放缓的现实，令很多零售商在中国 迅速扩张的梦想破灭。世界最大的零售商沃尔玛也比原 另外，“（2012年第三季度）沃尔玛在中国的顾客 计划放慢了在中国开新店的速度。在2011年上半年，中 数量再次下降。”61 国食品工业总产值已经达到3.5万亿元人民币（相当于 5600亿美元）。”63 沃尔玛公司是“全球销售额排名第一的零售 商，1996年进入中国市场”，“9年之后，沃尔玛在 无论其扩张速度是否放慢，沃尔玛近期又再次宣 中国拥有超过70家门店”。截止至2012年年中，沃尔 布，“在2013年开设新店30家的基础上，计划从2014到 玛“旗下的中国门店达到376家，直接雇佣员工超过 2016年在中国增开110家门店。”沃尔玛也希望“通过 95000人。”57 电子商务渠道在中国的零售市场上获取利润”，其中主 要依靠其控股电子商务公司1号店。“1号店拥有2400万 世界排名第二、第三的零售巨头法国家乐福和英国 注册用户，可以为客户提供当日配送服务。” 64 乐购公司在中国分别有206和111家门店。57 中国信息技术产业继续稳步发展。2006年，中国软 外资超市在中国也面临众多困境，尤其在定价、虚 件和服务出口总额达到18亿美元。2008年，政府做出预 报数字和员工纠纷等方面。 计，该数字到2011年将增长超过30%。642011年1-7月， 软件和服务出口总量比上年同期增长了15.7%，总额超 2011年1月，中国国家发改委“查实家乐福超市存 过150亿美元，该产业同期总收入达到9598亿元（约为 在价格欺诈行为，决定对六个城市的共11家家乐福超 1520亿美元），增幅达到29.6% 。65 市分别处以50万元人民币（78440美元）的罚款”，另 外“某些沃尔玛超市也发现存在非法定价行为”。57 美国商务处指出，软件行业仍然是中央政府发展信 息技术业的重点，但是软件行业发展依然参差不齐，“ 但是，类似问题屡禁不止。2012年10月，“沃尔 高度分散”。66根据中国国家版权局记录的数据，2010 玛被指在多家门店以普通猪肉冒充土猪肉，随后沃尔 年的注册软件产品估计有80000种。67 玛决定关闭重庆地区十几家分店。在事件中有2名员工 被捕，35名员工被拘留，沃尔玛被处以2690千万人民 最后，中外企业都非常关注中国的通信领域。尽管 币罚款。”62 外国企业仍然禁止向消费者提供服务，进而限制外资企 业向中国市场销售电话机及其配件。68 几乎在同一时间，“中国东部城市的一家乐购超市 因劳资纠纷爆发员工罢工，超过100名维权员工围堵超 市进出口索要赔偿。”62 重要政策变动

近年来，外资超市在中国内地的投资经营存在很 “十二五”规划：继续促进服务业大发展 多问题，媒体也时有报道，但是并没有明确指出罪责归 属何处。外资超市的错误做法是否得到企业高层默许支 2011年3月11日，国务院发布一系列通知，其中 持，还是仅仅是各个门店某些贪婪的“不良员工”的个 包括中央政府致力于促进中国服务业发展的几项措 人行动，恐怕需要读者自己判断了。 施：2011年，服务业增加值在国内生产总值的比重应比 2010年增加4个百分点，69服务业进出口总额应达到6000 外国大型零售商在中国市场陷入了困境，然而情况 亿美元。70 并没有太大改善。 2015年11月，国务院公布其针对批发零售、健康、 据《彭博商业周刊》报道，两年前，英国最大的零 旅游、体育等领域推广的指导意见以拉动当地消费。在 售企业乐购集团“曾经计划未来在中国市场的门店数量 国务院官网上的公告指出，鼓励金融机构拓宽对家庭、 翻倍，店铺总面积超过40万平方英尺。到了2013年，乐 养老、文化、法律、住宿、餐饮、教育及培训等生活性 购开始关闭中国门店，并放慢开新店的速度。自2009年 服务业企业贷款的抵质押品种类和范围。同时，政府计 金融危机以来，受中国经济增速放缓以及来自本土市场 划扩大消费信贷，完善支付清算网络体系，研究完善银

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firms remain barred from offering telecommunications services requiring financial institutions to clearly state who bears the to consumers, effectively limiting foreign participation to sell- risks in shadow banking business contracts. The new Circular ing handsets and accessories to the Chinese market.68 further requires the separation of wealth management funds for clients from the banks’ own funds and forbids the use of clients’ Notable Policy Activity money to buy the banks’ own loans.72

The 12th Five-Year Plan and Ongoing Attempts to Accelerate Reforms in Retail the Development of the Service Sector In April 2014, China embarked on a major overhaul of its Notes released by the State Council on March 11, 2011 cov- consumer protection law. According to China Briefing by De- er several measurements for the Central Government’s ongoing zan Shira & Associates, “the new law introduces a number of campaign to bolster the nation’s service economy: by 2011, the important reforms to the Chinese retail environment: In allega- ratio of value added by the service sector to the GDP should tions of counterfeiting, the onus of proof is now on the retailer have grown by four percent over 2010’s value69 and the total to prove their innocence for the first 6 months after the sale, amount of imports and exports in services should have reached rather than the consumer to prove wrongdoing all the time, as $600 billion.70 previously; Penalties for fraud and false advertising have been In November 2015, The State Council announced plans to increased; Class-action lawsuits against retailer malfeasance promote the development of the retail, health, travel and sports have been made easier to file (though limited to state Consum- sectors in a bid to boost domestic consumption. In a statement er Associations and their local branches); Retailers are now on its website, the State Council said it will encourage financial required to accept goods for return within 7 days of purchase institutions to accept a broader range of collateral for extending unless agreed otherwise; For online and other types of delivery loans to “lifestyle-related businesses”, in addition to services re- purchases, consumers are not required to provide a reason for lated to families and the elderly, culture, law, accommodation returns; and Greater restrictions now apply to retailers’ collec- and catering as well as education and training. The Cabinet tion and use of consumer data.” 73 said the government also plans to expand consumer credit, improve the system of Internet payments and study the man- agement of credit card fees to “further reduce overall expenses” related to their use. Finally, the government will crack down on price-gouging as well as the sale of counterfeit goods, and prosecute monopolies and businesses engaged in unfair compe- tition. This announcement comes in line with the “new normal” of slower growth in China with a new emphasis on sustainable, consumption-led development. 74

New Shadow Banking Regulations In December 2013, the State Council issued “Circular 107”, laying out new intended regulations for shadow banking, out- lining changes for corporates dealing with non-bank lenders and new regulatory responsibilities by relevant government authorities. The new regulation gained special relevance when in January 2014, China Credit Trust (CCT), a wealth manage- ment fund which sold investments via the Industrial and Com- mercial Bank of China (ICBC) had to be bailed out. The new Circular specifically outlined national shadow banking regula- tory responsibilities among four same-level government bodies – the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China Banking Reg- ulatory Commission (CBRC), China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and Insurance Regulatory Commission (IRC). Besides regulation at the national level, the Circular also stated that local governments are responsible for regulating “rel- evant shadow banking.” The new Circular also pinpoints ambi- guity of responsibility arising from unclearly written contracts,

236 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

行卡刷卡手续费定价机制，进一步从总体上降低刷卡手 续费支出。最后，政府将严厉打击价格欺诈、制售假冒 伪劣商品、依法查处垄断企业和不正当竞争行为。该指 导意见与“新常态”方向一致，主张放慢发展速度而更 侧重可持续、消费驱动型发展。

监管影子银行的新规定

2013年12月，国务院发布“107号通知”，提出加 强影子银行监管的新规定。通知明确了企业在处理与 非银行贷款机构业务时需要作出的调整以及相关政府部 门的监管责任。2014年1月发生的中诚信托（CCT）违 约事件让新规定更显特殊意义。中诚信托是一家财富管 理基金，因为通过中国工商银行出售的投资理财产品无 法如期兑付而造成违约危机，最后依靠政府介入才渡过 难关。通知还规定了四个同级别的金融监管部门分别承 担的监管责任，包括中国人民银行(PBOC)、中国银行 业监督管理委员会(CBRC)、中国证券监督管理委员会 (CSRC)和中国保险监督管理委员会(IRC)。除了国家级 相关部门的监管职责之外，通知也明确地方政府对“相 关影子银行”的监管责任。此外，通知特别指出由于合 同表述不清晰而导致责任不明的问题，要求涉及影子银 行的业务合同必须明确风险承担的主体。通知也要求商 业银行代客理财资金要与自有资金分开使用，不得用客 户资金购买本银行贷款。72

零售业法规的改革

2014年4月，中国对消费者权益保护法作出了重大修 改。根据协力管理咨询公司发布的《中国简报》，“新法 律对中国的零售市场环境作出一些重要的改革：消费者自 接受商品或者服务之日起六个月内发现商品瑕疵，存在争 议的，由经营者承担有关瑕疵的举证责任，而以前则一直 由消费者承担举证；提高了对虚假广告和其他虚假宣传的 处罚；针对侵害众多消费者合法权益行为，消费者提出集 体诉讼更加方便（虽然提出诉讼方仅限于中国消费者协会 以及在省、自治区、直辖市设立的消费者协会）；除非国 家规定或当事人有所约定，消费者可以自收到商品之日起 七日内退货；通过网络或其他方式购买的商品，消费者有 权退货，且无需说明理由；经营者收集和使用消费者个人 信息的行为受到更严格的限制。”73

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49 “China: Financial Services: Banking, Insurance & Securities.” U.S. 60 Martinne Geller. “Home Depot View Up as Housing Heals; Foreign Commercial Service. 2001–2009. http://www.buyusa. Sandy Lift Looms.”Reuters . November 13, 2012. http:// gov/china/en/financial_services.html. www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/13/us-homedepot-results- idUSBRE8AC0FF20121113. 50 “World Insurance in 2007: Emerging Markets Leading the Way.” Swiss Re. Sigma No. 3. 2008. http://www.swissre.com/pws/ 61 Caroline Valetkevitch. “Analysis: US Consumer Stocks Cheer research%20publications/sigma%20ins.%20research/sigma_ Investors Ahead of Holidays.” Reuters. November 18, 2012. no_3_2008_rev.html. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/18/us-usa-earnings- consumer-idUSBRE8AH0A320121118. 51 “Insurance in Emerging Markets: Overview and Prospects for Islamic Insurance.” Swiss Re. Sigma No. 5. 2008. http://www. 62 Li Woke. “Foreign Retailers Feel the Pinch of Rapid Expansion.” swissre.com/pws/research%20publications/sigma%20ins.%20 China Daily. July 20, 2012. http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/ research/sigma_no_5_2008.html. business/2012-07/20/content_15603707.htm.

52 Song Jingli. “Foreign Life Insurers Seek Niche Market Share.” 63 “Tesco Stumbles With Wal-Mart as China Shoppers Buy Local.” China Daily. April 8, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ BloombergBusinessweek. October 19, 2012. http://www. business/2011-04/08/content_12293264.htm. bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-18/tesco-stumbles-with-wal- mart-as-china-shoppers-buy-local.html. 53 Zhan Hao. “Think Again Before Going to China” China Law Vision. February 9, 2011. http://www.chinalawvision. 64 Matthew Miller. “Wal-Mart to Open Up to 110 New com/2011/02/articles/insurance-law-of-the-peoples-r/think- China Stores by 2016.” Reuters. October 24, 2013. http:// again-before-going-to-china/. www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/24/us-walmart-china- idUSBRE99N04S20131024. 54 Peter Whalley, Shu-Yen Liu, and Tom Ling. “Insurance: Foreign Insurance Company in China.” PriceWaterhouseCoopers. 65 “China’s Software Industry Revenue Up 31.4% in July.”Xinhua . September, 2009. http://www.pwchk.com/home/eng/foreign_ August 24, 2011. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/ insurance_cn_sep2009.html. china/2011-08/24/c_131071147.htm.

55 “Newly Amended Insurance Law in China.” China Law Insight. April 66 “China: Information & Communication Technology.” U.S. Foreign 15, 2009. http://www.chinalawinsight.com/2009/04/articles/ Commercial Service. 2001–2009. http://www.buyusa.gov/china/ corporate/insurance/newly-amended-insurance-law-in-china/. en/ict.html.

56 Tracy Zhang and Fenglin Qin. “China Insurance Regulatory 67 “China’s Software Industry Output Hits 1.3t Yuan in 2010.”China Commission issues new Administrative Provisions on Reinsurance Daily via Xinhua. August 5, 2011. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ Businesses” KPMG July, 2010. http://www.kpmg.com/CN/ bizchina/2011-08/05/content_13055459.htm. en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Newsletters/ ChinaAlerts/Documents/china-alert-1007-09.pdf.

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68 David Barboza. “China Plans to License 3 Wireless Standards.” The New York Times. December 31, 2008. http://www.nytimes. com/2009/01/01/technology/01wireless.html.

69 “国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要(全文).” Gov.cn. November 27, 2011. http://www.gov.cn/2011lh/ content_1825838_5.htm.

70 “商务部发布《服务贸易发展“十二五”规划纲要》.” People’s Daily. November 28, 2011. http://finance.people.com. cn/GB/70846/16422067.html.

71 “Why Beijing’s Anti-Luxury Advertising Campaign Won’t Help the Wealth Gap.” Jing Daily. March 22, 2011. http://jingdaily. com/will-beijings-latest-luxury-market-policies-actually-help-less- en-the-wealth-gap/8242/

72 Emma Bi. “Corporate Treasurer Breaks China’s New Shadow Bank- ing Regulations.” Corporate Treasurer. February 17, 2014. http:// www.thecorporatetreasurer.com/News/372592,ct-breaks-chi- na8217s-new-shadow-banking-regulations.aspx

73 “China Introduces New Consumer Protection Law.” China Brief- ing. Dezan Shira & Associates. http://www.china-briefing.com/ news/2014/04/08/china-introduces-new-consumer-protec- tion-law.html

74 Agencies. “China Set To Lift Services To Boost Consumption.” Shanghai Daily. November 23, 2015. http://www.shanghaidai- ly.com/business/consumer/China-set-to-lift-services-to-bolster- consumption/shdaily.shtml

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Part III Regional Overviews

3.1 Introduction to South China 3.2 Guangdong Province 3.3 Fujian Province 3.4 Guangxi Zhuang Antonomous Region 3.5 Hainan Province 3.6 Hong Kong Special Administration Region 3.7 Macau Special Administration Region

Courtesy of Dezan Shira & Associates

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第三部分

区域概况

3.1 华南地区简介 3.2 广东省 3.3 福建省 3.4 广西壮族自治区 3.5 海南省 3.6 香港特别行政区 3.7 澳门特别行政区

本部分内容由协力管理咨询有限公司授权刊登

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3.1 Introduction to South China

Region 2015 Minimum 2015 Minimum The term “South China” immediately brings to mind the Monthly Wage Hourly Wage Pearl River Delta (PRD) - China’s manufacturing center and beating “economic heart.” Broadly defined as including nine cit- Shenzhen RMB2,030 RMB18.5 ies in southeast Guangdong province (Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Guangzhou RMB1,895 RMB18.3 Dongguan, Foshan, Huizhou, Jiangmen, Zhaoqing, Zhong- Zhuhai * RMB1,650 RMB15,8 shan and Zhuhai), the PRD’s true centers are to be found in Dongguan RMB1,510 RMB14.4 Guangzhou (the provincial capital) and Shenzhen (China’s first Foshan RMB1,510 RMB14.4 and most successful special economic zone). Zhongshan RMB1,510 RMB14.4 To think of the PRD only in terms of these cities, howev- Jiangmen RMB1,350 RMB13.3 er, would be to ignore the instrumental role in economic de- Huizhou RMB1,350 RMB13.3 velopment played by the special administrative regions (SARs) Zhaoqing RMB1,350 RMB13.3 of Hong Kong and (to a lesser extent) Macau, with which the *Zhuhai independently sets minimum wages

cities of Guangdong have long leveraged their proximity. The Closer Economic Partnership Arrangements (CEPA) con- stantial but nevertheless decreasing productivity growth. This cluded in 2003 between Mainland China and Hong Kong and has been a major driver behind the flight of labor-intensive in- Macau, respectively, have phased out tariffs and trade barriers, dustries from China in recent years to lower-cost alternatives liberalized trade in services and boosted trade and investment such as Vietnam. Other factors pulling investment away from in Guangdong. As such, the term “Greater PRD” was coined to the region include China’s increasing emphasis on the service refer to the PRD, Hong Kong and Macau as a group. sector over manufacturing, as well as decreasing industrial land The more remote, less developed (and often more mountain- availability in the PRD. ous) towns of Guangdong province and neighboring provinces Despite this, and spurred by on-going processes of indus- of Fujian, Hainan and the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region trialization, urbanization and marketization, the PRD remains are the final pieces of the South China puzzle. A series of eco- home to a vibrant economy, which the government (at all lev- nomic and infrastructure-focused government policies have been els) is doing its best to reshape. To accomplish this, some lo- designed to better connect the Greater PRD and to improve its cal governments are implementing stricter industry approval links to these adjoining regions. measures, ranging from increased minimum registered capital thresholds (some raised as much as tenfold) to more stringent The PRD Today criteria for total investment or output value per square meter invested. Furthermore, local governments in more heavily-in- The PRD has long been considered the heart of high-tech vested areas are increasingly refusing to approve investment China, with Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Dongguan (as well as from enterprises in non-capital-intensive, low value-added or Zhuhai and Huizhou) considered as centers for the manufac- environmentally harmful industries, forcing such enterprises to ture of consumer electronics and other high-tech products. The locate elsewhere in the PRD or further inland. Lastly, research PRD hosts direct and indirect production arrangements for a and development, with government support, is also increasing wide variety of goods sold worldwide, offering both original in the region. Together, these trends can be seen as indicative of equipment manufacturing (OEM) and branded goods. The a maturing economy. Shenzhen Stock Exchange is the national leader for high-tech enterprises; China’s leading technology enterprises, including Future Outlook Huawei, Tencent and ZTE, were all founded in Shenzhen. Yet the PRD is a region in transition. In recent years, low “The Outline of the Plan for the Reform and Development of labor costs (once the major attraction of the region) have been the Pearl River Delta (2008-2020),” put forward by the National increasing rapidly. Minimum labor costs are one measure of Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), describes the this, with Shenzhen as a particularly illuminating example. The PRD region as an experimental area for scientific development city raised its minimum monthly wage by RMB 222 in March and calls for the creation of three super-metropolitan areas, re- 2015, to RMB 2030, making it the highest nationwide . Many spectively, Guangzhou and Foshan, Hong Kong and Shenzhen, other PRD cities raised their minimum wages in 2015 as well. and Macao and Zhuhai. Provided with greater autonomy, the Increasing labor costs stand in contrast to the region’s sub- PRD is expected to be at the forefront of new economic patterns

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3.1 华南地区简介

城市 2015 最低月工资 2015 最低时薪 说到华南地区，人们首先想到的是珠江三角洲地区 （人民币） （人民币） （珠三角或珠三角经济区）——中国的制造业中心，被誉 为跳动的“经济心脏”。一般来说，珠江三角洲地区包括 深圳 2,030 18.5 广东省东南部的九个城市（广州、深圳、东莞、佛山、惠 广州 1,895 18.3 州、江门、肇庆、中山和珠海）。其中，广州（广东省省 珠海* 1,650 15.8 会）和深圳（中国首个及最成功的经济特区）是珠三角地 东莞 1,510 14.4 区的两个中心城市。 佛山 1,510 14.4 中山 1,510 14.4 然而，如果认为珠三角地区仅包括这些广东城市， 江门 1,350 13.3 那就会抹煞香港和澳门（影响力次于香港）特别行政区 惠州 1,350 13.3 对珠三角地区经济发展的重要作用。事实上，毗邻港澳 肇庆 1,350 13.3 一直以来都是广东省各个城市的发展优势。2003年，内 *珠海市单独设定最低工资标准 地与香港、澳门特区政府分别签署了《关于建立更紧密 经贸关系的安排》（CEPA），目标是逐步取消关税和 变增长模式，由制造大国向服务大国转型，尤其是珠三 贸易壁垒，逐步实现服务贸易自由化，促进广东的贸易 角地区减少工业用地量，更加让许多投资者把目光投向 和投资便利化。就这样，珠三角、香港和澳门开始被称 中国其他地区以及周边国家。 为“大珠三角地区”。 尽管如此，在工业化、城镇化和市场化的不断推动 广东省欠发达的偏远城镇（多数是山区）、毗邻的 下，珠三角地区经济仍然充满活力。政府（各级政府） 福建省和广西壮族自治区以及南边的海南省也是华南地 也正在致力于转变珠三角地区的经济结构。为实现这一 区的组成部分。为了使大珠三角地区的联系更加紧密并 目标，一些地方政府实行更加严格的审批制度，例如提 增加该地区与周边地区的合作，政府制订了许多政策措 高最低注册资金门槛（有些地区甚至提高了十倍），对 施，以方便发展经济和完善基础设施。 总体投资或每平方米投入产出量提出更加严格的要求。 同时，在吸收投资金额较多的地区，政府往往拒绝批准 不符合资本密集、高附加值、对环境无害等要求的投 今日珠三角 资项目，迫使投资者选择珠三角其他地区或内地省份投 资。最后，在政府的大力支持下，珠三角地区的研究与 珠江三角洲地区一直被认为是中国高科技产品制造 开发也日渐提升。这些趋势都表明，珠三角地区经济越 中心，深圳、广州、东莞、珠海、惠州是生产高科技产 来越成熟。 品的主要城市。珠三角地区直接或间接生产种类繁多的 科技产品销往全球各地，包括原始设备制造（OEM）和 品牌产品—也就是广义上的加工贸易。深圳是全国高科 珠三角未来展望 技产业的领头羊，汇聚了中国高科技龙头企业，例如华 为、腾讯和中兴通讯公司，其总部都在深圳。 国家发展和改革委员会公布的《珠江三角洲地区改 革发展规划纲要（2008-2020）》把珠三角地区称为改 然而，珠江三角洲地区正处于转型之中。近年来， 革开放的“试验田”，并提出要在珠三角地区打造以广 低廉的劳动力成本（曾经是该地区的主要吸引力）已经 佛、港深、珠澳为中心的三大超级大城市区域。因为拥 快速上涨。最低工资水平是其中一个衡量标准。以深圳 有更大的自主权，珠三角地区将会成为探索经济发展模 市为例，深圳市于2015年3月将最低月工资上调222元至 式，努力实现城乡经济均衡发展的前沿阵地。 2030元人民币，名列全国第一。同时，珠三角地区其他 城市也于2015年提高了最低月工资（见右表）。 规划纲要同时提出以下目标：

由于中国国内市场还在不断壮大，珠三角地区经 • 推进广州、深圳区域金融中心建设，例如成立深 济仍然能够持续发展，但是生产力增长速度已经有所放 圳证券交易所第二板市场（创业板）以及建设广 缓，加上劳动力成本不断增加，很多劳动密集型产业开 东金融高新技术服务区。 始转移到其他国家，例如越南。此外，中国正在逐步改 • 通过推进白云空港、宝安空港、广州港、深圳港

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and achieve balanced economic development between its urban Economic Development Goals for the PRD (2009, 2012, 2020) and rural areas. 2009 2012 2 020 The Plan also includes the following key goals: GDP per capi ta RMB60,000 RMB80,000 RMB1 35,000 GDP from service secto r 50% 53% 6 0% Urbanizatio n 76% 80% 8 5% • Establish financial centers in Guangzhou and Shen - Source: Outline of NDRC Development Plan for the PRD (2008) zhen, as shown by projects such as the second board at the Shenzhen Securities Exchange and construction of the Guangdong Financial and High-tech Services • Eastern passage between Shenzhen and Hong Kong Zone. • Express railway from Guangzhou via Shenzhen to • Improve infrastructure, and promote Guangdong as a Hong Kong world-class logistics center through the construction • Guizhou-Guangzhou coastal railway and Nan- of several hub-type modern logistics parks, including ning-Guangzhou railway those at Baiyun Airport, Bao’an Airport, Guangzhou • Urban rail transit systems in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Port and Shenzhen Port. Foshan and Dongguan • Implement an “outward” strategy, by establishing 10 • Improvement to the modern functions of ports in native multinational corporations with annual sales Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Zhuhai revenue of over US$ 20 billion by 2020. • Expansion of Baiyun Airport in Guangzhou • Develop a series of specialized conventions and exhibi- tions, including the Guangzhou Export Commodities Joined by Hong Kong and Macau, the PRD aims to become Fair, Shenzhen High-tech Fair, Zhuhai International a globally competitive area for the advanced manufacturing and Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition, Guangzhou Small modern service industries by 2020, and the most vigorous eco- and Medium-Sized Enterprise Fair and Shenzhen In- nomic zone in the entire Asia-Pacific region. In the following, ternational Cultural Industries Fair. we break the region down by provinces/cities. • Foster creative industry business clusters, including the construction of a national base for the software and an- imation industries. • Increase the innovative capacity of the region to real- ize the transformation from “Made in Guangdong” to “Created by Guangdong” by 2020. • Establish internationally influential brands in Foshan for home appliances and building materials, in Dong- guan for garments, in Zhongshan for lighting and in Jiangmen for papermaking.

To reach these goals in the increasingly overcrowded PRD region, the Guangdong provincial government recently allocat- ed more than 672 billion yuan (US$109.75 billion) to develop rural areas in the province over the next five years. The funds are to specifically focus on infrastructure projects, including a num- ber of new links planned to better connect the greater PRD and integrate it with the pan-PRD area. Major ongoing infrastructure developments include:

• Zhongshan-Shenzhen passage across the Pearl River estuary • Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge (scheduled for completion by 2016)

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等一批枢纽型现代物流园区建设，完善与现代物 珠三角地区经济发展目标 (2009, 2012, 2020) 流业相匹配的基础设施，带动广东建设世界一流 2009 2012 2 020 的物流中心。 人均GDP 60,000元 80,000元 135,0 00元 • 着力向外发展，到2020年，培育10个年销售额超 服务业占GDP比重 50% 53% 6 0% 过200亿美元的当地跨国企业。 城市化率 76% 80% 8 5% 来源： 国家发改委《珠三角地区改革发展规划纲要》（2008） • 发展一批具有国际影响力的专业会展，包括中国 进出口商品交易会（于广州举办）、中国国际高 新技术成果交易会（于深圳举办）、中国国际航 空航天博览会（于珠海举办）、中国国际中小企 业博览会（于广州举办）、中国（深圳）国际文 化产业博览交易会。 • 培育一批创意产业集群，加快建设珠江三角洲国 家级软件和动漫产业基地。 • 加强珠三角地区创新能力建设，到2020年，从“广 东制造”升级为“广东创造”。 • 打造具有国际影响力的区域品牌，例如佛山家电 和建材、东莞服装、中山灯饰、江门造纸等。

近年来，珠三角地区城市越来越拥挤。为了实现上 述发展目标，广东省政府近期做出决定，在未来五年内 投入6720亿元人民币（1097.5亿美元）发展省内农村地 区，交通设施将是建设重点，其中包括几条连接大珠三 角地区的交通基础线路，以形成完善的泛珠三角地区交 通网络。目前正在建设中的大型项目包括：

• 中山至深圳跨珠江口通道 • 香港-珠海-澳门大桥（预计2016年完工） • 深港东部通道 • 广深港高速铁路 • 沿海铁路、贵州至广州铁路、南宁至广州铁路 • 广州、深圳、佛山、东莞城市轨道交通系统 • 完善广州、深圳、珠海港的现代化功能 • 扩建广州白云国际机场

到2020年，珠三角地区将会形成以先进制造业和 现代服务业为主的产业结构，与香港特区和澳门特区一 起，形成全球最具核心竞争力的大都市圈之一，成为亚 太地区最具经济活力的区域。我们将在后文逐一分析。

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3.2 Guangdong Province

Heart of the PRD nancial Department released its “Overall Plan of Guangdong- Province in Establishing an Integrated Experimental Area for Guangdong has the largest regional GDP of China’s Financial Reform and Innovation.” The Plan suggests that add- provinces and is the country’s biggest exporter, accounting ed value in the financial industry will account for more than 10 for more than a quarter of China’s total foreign trade. The percent of provincial GDP by 2020. provincial capital, Guangzhou, is the heart of Cantonese culture. Guangdong is also home to three out of four of China’s original The New Guangdong FTZ special economic zones - Shenzhen, Zhuhai and Shantou. In terms of commerce, the cities of Guangdong lead not On April 20, 2015, the policy frameworks for the Tianjin, only the PRD but in many cases the country as a whole, with Guangdong and Fujian Free Trade Zones (FTZs) were officially Guangzhou ranking number one in Forbes China’s “Best Cities published by the State Council, along with an updated Nega- for Business 2014” . The city is actively supporting the develop- tive List, which details prohibited or restricted industries for ment of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, such as via foreign investment in all of the four existing FTZs in China. tax incentives introduced in a November 2012 circular. Geographic Scope Economy The Guangdong FTZ covers an area of 116.2 square kilometers and consists of the three following, pre-existing development Guangdong’s economy is estimated to have grown by 7.8 per- zones: cent in 2014 and reached a GDP output of more than US$1 tril- lion last year according to official statistics released by Guang- • Guangzhou Nansha New Area (including Nansha dong government . If Guangdong were a separate country, it bonded port) would rank as the world’s sixteenth largest economy, behind Major industries: shipping industry, logistics, financial Mexico and Spain, and ahead of Indonesia and the Netherlands. industry, international trade, high-end manufacturing Guangdong is also taking action to shift its focus onto services • Shenzhen Qianhai Development Zone rather than manufacturing. With average wages among the Major industries: financial industry, modern logistics, highest in the country, there is a growing potential to reorient information services, technology services the provincial economy toward domestic consumption rather • Zhuhai Hengqin New Area than exports and cheap labor. Major industries: tourism industry, finance services, The PRDcontributed 85 percent of Guangdong’s economic cultural and education industry, hi-tech industries growth in 2014 through the following leading industrial out- puts: Lifted Restrictions Service Provision between Hong Kong, Macau and Guangdong 1. Communications equipment, computers and • Hong Kong and Macau service providers are now al- other electronic equipment lowed to set up wholly foreign-owned international 2. Electrical machinery & equipment shipping enterprise within the FTZ; 3. Smelting and processing of metals • Hong Kong and Macau service providers are now al- 4. Raw chemical materials and chemical products lowed to set up intermediary service institutions for 5. Automobiles studying abroad at one’s own expenses within the FTZ; 6. Plastics • Hong Kong/Macau-invested travel agencies (capped at 7. Petroleum refining and nuclear fuel processing a number of five, separately) are now allowed to provide 8. Garments and footwear overseas group travel services (with the exception of Tai- 9. General purpose machinery wan); 10. Textiles • Hong Kong/Macau investors are now allowed to provide high-end medical services and launch pilot schemes to Furthermore, the provincial government is also taking steps exchange patients among one another; to advance the financial industry. In 2012, the province’s Fi-

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3.2 广东省

珠三角地区的中心区域 另外，广东省政府正在加紧发展金融业。2012年， 广东省金融工作办公室发布《广东省建设珠江三角洲金 广东省地区国内生产总值在全国各省排名第一，也 融改革创新综合实验区总体方案》。该方案提出，到 是中国出口第一大省，其对外贸易占全国比重超过四分 2020年，金融业增加值将占广东省国内生产总值比重达 之一。省会城市广州是粤语文化中心。全国四个经济特 10%以上。 区中有三个落户广东—深圳、珠海、汕头。 中国（广东）自由贸易试验区（新） 在珠江三角洲地区，广东省各城市不仅在经济上独 领风骚，在其他各个方面也遥遥领先。2014年，广州市 2015年4月20日，中国国务院公开发布广东、天 位列福布斯评选的“中国大陆最佳商业城市”首位。广 津、福建自由贸易试验区的总体方案，以及新的《自贸 州大力支持微型、中小型企业发展，在2012年11月更出 区负面清单》。负面清单详细列明了禁止或限制外商投 台相关的税收激励措施。 资的行业，适用于中国现有的四个自由贸易试验区。

实施范围 经济情况 中国（广东）自由贸易试验区的实施范围为116.2 平方公里，涵盖三个现有的经济开发区： 广东省政府发布的官方数据显示，2014年广东省 经济大约增长了7.8%，国内生产总值大约达到1万亿美 • 广州南沙新区片区（含广州南沙保税港区） 元。假如广东省是一个国家，其经济总量将名列世界第 重点发展产业：船舶运输、物流、金融业、国际 16位，排在墨西哥和西班牙之后，超过印度尼西亚和荷 贸易、高端制造业等。 兰。广东省也在采取措施促进经济转型，把发展重点从 • 深圳前海蛇口片区 制造业转移到服务业。由于人均工资在全国位居前列， 重点发展产业：金融业、现代物流、信息服务 广东省将会越来越重视推动国内消费，减少经济对出口 科技服务等。 和廉价劳动力的依赖。 • 珠海横琴新区片区 重点发展产业：旅游休闲、金融服务、文化科 2014年，珠江三角洲地区的经济总量在广东省经济 教、高新技术等。 的比重达到85%，工业产值排名前十的行业包括： 放宽外商投资限制 1. 通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造 粤港澳服务贸易自由化 • 允许港澳服务提供者在自贸试验区设立独资国际 2. 电子机械设备制造 船舶运输企业。 • 允许港澳服务提供者在自贸试验区设立自费出国 3. 金属冶炼及压延加工 留学中介服务机构。 • 允许在自贸试验区设立的港澳资旅行社（各限5 4. 化工原料及化工产品 家）经营内地居民出国（境）（不包括台湾地 区）团队旅游业务。 5. 汽车工业 • 允许港澳服务提供者发展高端医疗服务，开展粤 港澳医疗机构转诊合作试点。 6. 塑料制品 船舶运输 7. 石油炼制及核燃料加工 • 允许设立外商独资国际船舶管理企业。 • 放宽在自贸试验区设立的中外合资、中外合作国 8. 服装和鞋类 际船舶企业的外资股比限制：国际船舶代理机构 的外方持股比例放宽至51%。 9. 通用设备制造 广东省政府拥有审批外资经营船舶管理业务企业的 10. 纺织业 许可权限。

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Shipping • Guangzhou is a city of 13 million people and the na- • Wholly foreign-owned international shipping manage- tion’s third-largest metropolitan economy; ment enterprises is now allowed. • In 2014, regional GDP totaled RMB1.671 trillion, • The limit on the number of shares a foreign entity ranking third in the country, trailing Shanghai and may now own in an international shipping enterprise Beijing; is raised: a foreign entity may hold up to 51 percent of • Among the highest in the country, average monthly shares in an international shipping agency. wages in Guangzhou grew to RMB 6830 in 2014. Guangzhou’s monthly minimum wage rose by 22.3 The Guangdong local government will take charge of the percent from RMB 1550 to RMB 1895 in 2014 – approval procedures for foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) en- the second highest in the province behind Shenzhen. gaging in international shipping management business. Meanwhile, the city’s minimum hourly wage increased from RMB15 to RMB18.3. Further Opening-up of the Financial Services Sector • Enterprises and financial institutions in the FTZ may Guangdong’s strength in foreign trade is evident in the fol- now borrow RMB funds from overseas lenders. lowing figures (from Guangdong Statistical Yearbook 2014): • Parent company based in Hong Kong or Macau with a subsidiary in the FTZ may issue RMB-denominated • Total exports rose to US$646.2 billion by 1.5 percent bonds in China. year-on-year • Non-banking financial institutions located in the FTZ • Although imports had to face a 5.5% decrease in 2014, may now conduct cross-border RMB settlements. Guangdong realized an import value of US$ 430.5 billion. • Eligible foreign financial institutions may now set up • Nevertheless, Guangdong province was still ranked top foreign-owned banks within the FTZ; and Qualified for both export and import values nation-wide. Foreign Financial Institutions may set up banking joint ventures with Chinese enterprises, within the FTZ. In particular, trade between Guangdong and newly emerg- • Eligible insurance companies and insurance intermedi- ing markets including Latin America, the Middle East and Afri- ary institutions that are based in Hong Kong or Macau ca has increased greatly in recent years. can now set up branches in the FTZ. The Outline of Guangdong’s 12th Five Year Plan, current • Commercial banks are encouraged to set up institutions in for 2011-2015, includes the following goals: the FTZ to conduct offshore foreign currency activities. • Eligible investors from Hong Kong or Macau operating • Optimize the province’s industry structure such that non-financial institutions in the FTZ may now provide the service industry occupies 48 percent of all enter- third party payment services. prises by 2015. In addition, the Plan aims to increase the • Eligible institutions registered Hong Kong or Macau may ratio of the value added by modern service industries to now set up financial leasing companies in the FTZ. 60 percent of value added for the whole of the service in- dustry. The key modern service industries to be promot- Tax Policies ed are: finance and insurance, modern logistics, informa- The Plan states that the tax incentives implemented in the tion services, science and technology services, business Shenzhen Qianhai Development Zone and Zhuhai Hengqin exhibitions and the ‘headquarters economy’, among oth- New Area shall not apply to the other parts of the Guangdong ers. In addition, emerging service industries such as the FTZ. creative industry, services outsourcing, human resources services and high-tech services will be actively promoted. Spotlight on Guangzhou’s Changing Identity • Significantly improve the province’s innovative capac- Traditionally considered a manufacturing base, Guangzhou ity, and become an important innovation center in the is increasingly being recognized for its growing amount of do- Asia-Pacific region by 2015. In this regard, the Plan mestic consumption. From 2012, total retail sales in the city aims to introduce a wave of high-level technological in- increased by 28.8 percent and reached RMB769.785 billion in novative talent from abroad. 2014 . This enabled Guangzhou to take the top spot on Forbes • Transform the PRD into a domestic as well as interna- China’s “Best Cities for Business” in 2014. Growth in retail sales tional consumer service center for a large number of is largely being fueled by Guangzhou’s large population and trend-setting products and with strengthened super- high wages, as well as its efficient infrastructure. vision of both product quality and prices in order to better protect consumer interests.

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进一步开放金融服务业 值得一提的是，广东与新兴市场包括拉丁美洲、中 • 允许自贸试验区银行业金融机构和企业从港澳及 东地区以及非洲的贸易往来在近年增长迅速。 国外借用人民币资金。 • 允许自贸试验区内港澳资企业的境外母公司按规 广东省“十二五”规划提出在2011-2015年期间实 定在境内资本市场发行人民币债券。 现以下目标： • 允许自贸试验区非银行业金融机构开展与港澳地 区跨境人民币业务。 • 产业结构优化升级，到2015年服务业比重达到 • 允许符合条件的外国金融机构在自贸试验区设立 48%。此外，“十二五”规划提出推进现代服务 外商独资银行；允许符合条件的外国金融机构与 业发展的目标，把现代服务业增加值占服务业增 中国公司、企业出资共同在自贸试验区设立中外 加值比重提高至60%。重点发展的现代服务业包 合资银行。 括金融保险、现代物流、信息服务、科技服务、 • 允许符合条件的港澳保险公司和保险中介机构在 商务会展、总部经济等。另外，要培育发展新兴 自贸试验区设立分支机构。 服务业，例如创意产业、服务外包、人力资源服 • 支持商业银行在自贸试验区内设立机构开展外币 务和高技术服务等。 离岸业务。 • 大力提高创新能力，到2015年初步建成亚太地 • 允许自贸试验区内注册设立的港澳非金融机构， 区重要的区域创新中心。在这方面，“十二 在符合相关政策和资质条件的前提下从事第三方 五”规划提出从海外引进一定数量的高层次科 支付业务。 技创新人才。 • 允许符合条件的港澳地区机构在自贸试验区内设 • 把珠三角建设成为面向国内外的消费服务中心， 立金融租赁公司。 不断丰富消费品种，引领消费潮流，加强对消费 市场的质量和价格监管，依法保护消费者的合法 税收政策 权益。 根据《总体方案》，深圳前海深港现代服务业合作 • 加快珠三角地区经济一体化，提高区域整体竞争 区、珠海横琴新区的税收优惠政策不适用于广东自贸试 力。包括交通系统、基础设施、城乡规划、工业 验区内其他区域。 布局、环境保护和公共服务一体化。 • 加强环境保护，加大水污染整治力度，改善大气 聚焦广州改变定位 环境质量，提高固体废弃物安全处置水平。 • 推动低碳发展，改善控制温室气体排放体制机制。 以往人们认为广州是华南地区的制造业基地，如 • 优化高效信息网络体系。“十二五”规划提出， 今广州更因为消费日益增长而备受瞩目。2012年，广州 到2015年，广东省全省信息化程度实现中等发达 地区消费品零售总额达到7697.85亿元人民币，比上年 国家水平，其中一项指标是全省互联网普及率在 增长28.8%，使广州成为“2014年福布斯中国大陆最佳 2015年达到70%以上。 商业城市”之首。广州庞大的人口数量，较高的工资水 • 调节收入差距，扩大中等收入者比重，提高最低 平，高效的基础设施大大拉动了零售额的增长。 工资水平，到2015年，珠三角各市的最低工资标 准达到当地职工平均工资的40%以上。 • 广州市人口达1300万，是中国第三大经济城市。 • 提高全省社会保险制度和医疗服务水平。 • 2014年，广州市国内生产总值为1.671万亿元人 • 加快教育国际化进程，引进几所国际知名大学到 民币，排名全国第三，仅次于上海和北京。 广州、深圳、珠海、东莞、佛山等城市合作举办 • 2014年，广州市平均月收入超过6830元人民币， 高等教育机构。 在全国名列前茅。2014年，广州市最低月工资从 • 深入落实内地与港澳建立更紧密经贸关系安排 1550元上升至1895元，增幅达到22.3%，在全国 （CEPA）加强与港澳地区的合作。在金融领域 排名第二，仅次于深圳。同时，广州市最低时薪 建设以香港金融体系为龙头、珠三角城市金融资 将从15元上升至18.3元。 源和服务为支撑的金融合作区域。为了加强香港 和内地在服务业的合作，促进两地经济进一步 以下数据体现了广东在对外贸易方面的强大实力（引 发展，中国中央政府和香港特别行政区政府签署 自《广东2014年统计年鉴》） 《<内地与香港关于建设更紧密经贸关系的安排> 补充协议十》，该协议于2013年1月正式实施。 • 出口总值达到6462亿美元，同比增长1.5%。 • 提升经济国际化水平，优化利用外资结构。鼓励 • 2014年，进口总值同比下降了5.5%。虽然如此， 外资投向高端制造业、新高技术产业、现代服 广东省当年的进口总值仍达到4305亿美元。 务业、新能源和节能环保产业。重点吸引全球 • 广东省进出口总值在全国仍然名列前茅。 500强企业和行业龙头企业投资，加强与美国、

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• Promote integration of PRD’s economy and improve • Establish proper commercial dispute resolution mech- its competitiveness. This includes integrating the trans- anisms and improve legal systems to create a fair and portation systems, infrastructure, urban and rural plan- orderly environment for market competition, condu- ning, industry layout, environmental protection and cive to the internationalization of the economy. public services in the region. • Strengthen environmental protection through increas- The Outline of Guangdong’s 13th Five Year Plan is currently ing water pollution control, improving air quality and under discussion, but has not yet been released. improving the standards for safe disposal and treat- ment of solid waste. Spotlight on Shenzhen Government Innovation • Promote low-carbon development in the province and Shenzhen’s government has taken the lead on a number of improve its mechanism for controlling emissions of new initiatives to become the national leader in innovation and greenhouse gases. private enterprise growth. The city has experienced rapid pri- • Optimize the province’s high-efficiency information vate economic growth, spawning about 450,000 private com- network system. The Plan aims to achieve the standards panies, including international giantssuch as Huawei Technol- of a mid-level developed country in terms of IT infra- ogies Co Ltd, Tencent Holdings Ltd, China Vanke Co Ltd and structure throughout the entire province by 2015. This BYD. Available incentives include a recent VAT and business includes reaching an internet penetration rate of 70 per- tax exemption policy for small and micro-sized enterprises. The cent by 2015. government has also adopted specific measures in terms of equi- • Adjust income inequality by expanding the ratio of ty investment incentives, e-commerce promotion and the intro- mid-income residents and raising the minimum wages duction of electric vehicles. Lastly, as part of a pilot program to in various cities in the PRD to above 40 percent of the curb emissions of key pollutants and clean up the environment, local average salaries by 2015. foreign investors are now permitted to trade carbon permits in • Improve the social insurance system and medical ser- Shenzhen. vice standards in the province. • Improve internationalization of education by inviting Equity Investment Incentives several internationally reputed schools to Guangzhou, Private equity (PE) investment has emerged as one of the Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Dongguan, Foshan and other cities most important capital-raising avenues for small and medi- to jointly establish higher education institutions. um-sized enterprises. Recognizing this, the Shenzhen govern- • Deepen cooperation with Hong Kong and Macau un- ment has become one of several coastal city administrations to der the CEPA. In finance, efforts will involve building offer further incentives to equity investment enterprises. The a hub for financial cooperation to be led by Hong Kong city has established a PE Development Fund (PEDF) and clar- and with PRD cities providing support through their ified operation procedures for PE funds that intend to apply own financial resources and services. To further enhance for financial support from the PEDF. Incentives offered to PE services industry cooperation and growth between Hong funds include: rewards for local financial contributions, office Kong and Mainland China, the two signed the Tenth purchase and rental subsidies, one-time settlement rewards, and Supplement to the Mainland and Hong Kong Closer one-time rewards for investment withdrawal. Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA), effective January 2013. E-Commerce Promotion • Internationalize the province’s economy and optimize In September 2009, Shenzhen was approved by China’s its structure of FDI utilization. Foreign investment is NDRC and Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) to become encouraged in the following industries: high-end man- China’s first “e-commerce model city”. In addition to streamlin- ufacturing, high- and new-technology, modern services, ing registration processes for e-commerce companies, the city has new energy, and energy efficiency and environmental made other efforts to promote the development of e-commerce. protection. The key focus will be on attracting investment One example is the building of dedicated industrial parks, such as from Global Fortune 500 companies and leading enter- Futian International E-commerce Industrial Park, which opened prises in various industries, and strengthening coopera- in 2009 and houses more than 150 internet and e-commerce tion with developed countries such as the U.S., Japan and companies. European countries in terms of business, trading, technol- One state-level project being developed in Shenzhen is the ogy and culture. Foreign investors are also encouraged to Qianhai Shenzhen-Hong Kong Modern Services Cooperation establish venture capital enterprises, private equity invest- Zone, approved by the State Council in June 2012. By the end ment funds and invest in enterprises within the province. of January 2015, a total of 21,666 companies with a combined

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日本、欧洲等发达国家在经济、贸易、科技、文 位于深圳西部，面积不到20平方公里，预计到2020年该 化等方面的合作。鼓励外商投资设立创业投资企 区国内生产总值将达到1500亿元人民币。 业、私募股权投资基金等，投资省内企业。 • 建立规范的商业纠纷解决机制，完善法律制度， 前海区提出了多个发展目标，包括成为中国金融业 创造公平有序、有利于提高国际化水平的市场竞 对外开放的试验田，并实行特殊的先行先试政策，其中 争环境。 包括：

广东省“十三五”规划目前仍在讨论中，尚未对外 • 允许前海探索拓宽境外人民币资金回流渠道，构 公布。 建跨境人民币业务创新试验区； • 支持设立在前海的银行机构发放境外项目人民币 聚焦深圳政府创新 贷款； • 在《内地与香港关于建立更紧密经贸关系的安 深圳市政府已经率先实行一系列改革政策，其创新 排》（CEPA）框架下，积极研究香港银行机构对 项目和民营企业发展在全国遥遥领先。深圳市民营经济 设立在前海的企业或项目发放人民币贷款； 增长较快，目前民营企业数量达到45万家，其中包括行 • 支持在前海注册、符合条件的企业和金融机构在 业国际巨头华为技术有限公司、腾讯控股有限公司、中 国务院批准的额度范围内在香港发行人民币债 国万科企业股份有限公司和比亚迪股份有限公司等。为 券，用于支持前海开发建设； 了鼓励发展民营经济，政府决定对小型和微型企业免除 • 支持外资股权投资基金在前海创新发展，积极探 增值税和营业税。此外，深圳市政府还提出具体措施， 索外资股权投资企业在资本金结汇、投资、基金 促进特区各行业发展，包括激励股权投资、促进电子商 管理等方面的新模式； 务、推广电动车等。最后，为减少污染物排放量，净化 • 支持香港金融机构和其他境内外金融机构在前海 环境，外国投资者亦被允许参与到深圳碳排放权的交易 设立国际性或全国性管理总部、业务运营总部。 业务中。 此外，符合条件的前海企业享受以减额15%的税率 激励股权投资 缴纳企业所得税。为了提高投资者对前海的信心，政府 私募股权投资已经成为中小企业最重要的融资渠道 明确提出计划，设立香港仲裁机构在前海的分支机构。 之一，所以沿海地区多个地方政府为私募股权投资提供 为吸引外国人才，特别是对于来自香港的金融领域的人 进一步激励政策，深圳也在此之列。深圳市成立私募股 才，对于生活与工作在前海的外国人士将享受个人所得 权发展基金（PEDF），并在最近进一步明确私募股权 税15%税率的减免。2013年4月，深圳市政府正式宣布， 基金公司向PEDF申请获取资金支持的操作程序。私募 前海合作区内的金融、现代物流、信息服务、科技服务 股权投资的激励政策包括：本地金融贡献奖励，办公场 及其他专业服务四大产业，可以获得专项资金支持。 所购置补贴，办公场所租赁补贴，一次性支付奖励，一 次性撤资奖励等。 前海区也被称为“珠三角地区产业升级的引领区”。 为了改善投资环境，吸引“新一轮”外商直接投资，前海 促进电子商务 区实行的优惠政策，未来将会扩大到广东省其他经济区， 2009年，经中国国家发改委和商务部批准，深圳市 例如珠海市的横琴岛和广州市南端的南沙港，最后在全国 成为国家首个电子商务示范城市。除了放宽电子商务公 各大经济区域施行。 司注册条件之外，深圳市采取了其他方法促进电子商务 的发展，其中之一是建设电子商务工业园，例如2009年 开始启用的福田国际电子商务产业园，现在该产业园已 经有超过150家互联网和电子商务企业进驻。

目前，深圳市正在发展国家级项目“前海港深现 代服务业合作区”，该项目于2012年6月获得国务院批 准。截至2015年1月，在该合作区注册的企业已达21666 家，注册资产总值达到1.372万亿人民币。在国务院支 持下，香港和内地联合开发前海现代服务业合作区，将 前海区打造成为香港与内地紧密合作的先导区，推进两 地在金融、物流和信息技术服务业的紧密合作。前海区

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registered capital of RMB 1372 billion had already registered in centives that are likely to be extended to the other areas in Guang- the zone. A joint venture between Hong Kong and Mainland dong Province in the near future. This is designed to extract the China, and supported by the State Council, the Qianhai Zone ‘next wave’ of FDI in areas such as Hengqing Island near Zhuhai is designed as an experimental business zone for better interac- and Nansha Port near Guangzhou, and if successful may eventu- tion between the two jurisdictions’ financial, logistics, and IT ally be instituted nationwide. services sectors. It covers slightly less than 20 square kilometers on the western side of Shenzhen, and is expected to achieve a GDP of RMB150 billion by 2020.

Among its many goals, the Qianhai Zone will serve as a pilot area for the liberalization of China’s financial sector as a whole, including preferential policies such as:

• Allowing the Qianhai Zone to explore the expansion of offshore RMB flow-back channels, and establish an innovative experimental zone for cross-border RMB transactions; • Supporting the granting of RMB loans for offshore projects by banking institutions established in Qianhai; • Under the CEPA framework, conducting studies on the granting of RMB loans by Hong Kong-based bank- ing institutions for enterprises and projects established in Qianhai; • Supporting qualified enterprises and financial insti- tutions registered in Qianhai to issue RMB bonds in Hong Kong within the quotas approved by the State Council to support the development of Qianhai; • Supporting the innovative development of foreign-in- vested equity investment funds, and actively exploring new modes of foreign exchange settlements of capital funds, investments and fund management; and • Supporting the establishment of international or na- tional management headquarters or business operation headquarters by Hong Kong and other onshore and offshore financial institutions.

Qualifying enterprises will be entitled to a reduced corpo- rate income tax rate of 15 percent, and to increase investor con- fidence in the area, the government has stated plans to explore the establishment of branches of Hong Kong arbitration insti- tutions in Qianhai. To attract foreign talent, especially financial sector employees from Hong Kong, the zone offers a special 15 percent salary tax rate for foreign nationals living or working in Qianhai. In April 2013 the municipal government announced four industries–finance, modern logistics, information services, and related industries operating within the zone–that are eligi- ble for special funding. Identified as “an area for spearheading industrial restructuring in the Pearl River Delta region,” the Qianhai Zone provides in-

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3.3 Fujian Province

Cross-Strait Trade Hub 2013Fujian’s Major Industrial Produc ts National Rank (total 30 provinces/municipalities )

Directly facing Taiwan, Fujian’s coastline provides easy ac- Produc t National Rank

cess to cross-strait trade and business. The province used to be Chemical Fib er 3 the sole hub for all air and sea transportation to Taiwan, but Televisions 3 several years ago the government began permitting direct links Cloth 6 with other parts of the country, following which Guangdong Paper and Jiangsu surpassed Fujian in terms of attracting investment Hydropow er 8 from Taiwan. Nonetheless, Fujian stands to gain the most from Microcomputer Equipment 6 the continuing improvement of cross-strait relations, both Mobile Telephone 8 economically and in terms of its importance to the state gov- Beer 10 ernment. The main economic engines in Fujian are Xiamen, Source: National Data(Official website of NBS) Fuzhou, Quanzhou, Zhangzhou and Putian. There are also a number of less well-known economic gems hidden throughout A prime example of an equipment manufacturer headquar- the province. tered in Fujian is Lonking Holdings, one of the largest construc- tion machinery manufacturers in China (making and distribut- Economy ing loaders, road rollers, excavators and forklifts). In late 2011, the company invested RMB3.5 billion in an excavator manu- The economies of Fujian and Taiwan are closely related and facturing line in the Longyan Economic Development Zone. complementary – with the pillar industries of both regions The project is estimated to produce 15,000 excavators annually. consisting of electronics, petrochemicals and machinery. If To fuel such industry, Fujian province has taken measures this favorable economic factor can be properly utilized, gains to promote energy production. For example, a household from the increased trade between the two regions could bene- waste-fuelled power plant in Fuqing city was completed and fit both sides amid the ongoing global economic downturn. In entered operation in 2011. May 2013, the capital city of the province – Fuzhou – set up The provincial government focuses on attracting foreign in- an administration office to handle the certification of origin for vestment in 13 industries, namely electronics and information goods made in Taiwan. technology, machinery, petrochemicals, steel and non-ferrous In June 2012, China’s State Administration of Industry and metals, shipbuilding, new energy, bio-pharmaceuticals (tradi- Commerce issued 16 new policies to promote the development tional Chinese medicine), logistics, new materials, construction of the region and strengthen its bond with Taiwan. The new pol- materials and textiles. Other key industries in the province in- icies empowered local offices to directly handle registration appli- clude aquaculture and fisheries. cations and other business-related licenses for enterprises funded with overseas capital, rather than going through the Beijing office, Spotlight on Xiamen and thereby making it more convenient for Taiwanese enterpris- While Fuzhou is the capital of Fujian province, Xiamen is es to gain market access. Additionally, the new policies allowed one of China’s four original special economic zones (along with Taiwan-funded enterprises to use traditional Chinese characters Guangzhou province’s Shenzhen, Zhuhai and Shantou) and a on outdoor advertisements and register company names with Tai- key trade hub – its port and airport are both the third busiest in wanese idioms. All these measures were aimed to reduce the com- the region, behind Guangzhou and Shenzhen. mercial costs to Taiwan-funded enterprises and help to attract The import and export volume connected to trade conducted more large-scale companies and projects to Pingtan. by foreign-invested enterprises takes up more than half of the total Historically, Fujian’s key industries have been agriculture, volume in Xiamen, which in turn occupies more than half of the footwear and clothing, but in recent years the area has increas- total import and export volume of the entire province. These pro- ingly focused on high-tech and electronic goods. Fujian’s indus- vide opportunities for service outsourcing enterprises in Xiamen to trial clusters have become stronger in electronic information, open up their overseas markets. equipment manufacturing and petrochemicals, with these in- Xiamen’s more prominent service outsourcing businesses in- dustries accounting for more than 60 percent of total industrial clude information technology service outsourcing targeted to- output value. wards the Japanese market, logistics and supply chain outsourc-

260 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

3.3 福建省

海峡两岸贸易中心 2013年福建省主要工业产品 全国排名（共30个省/直辖市）

福建省位于东南沿海，海岸线直接面对台湾，两岸 产品 全国排名

经济贸易来往非常方便。福建省曾经是大陆与台湾海空 化学纤维 3 两路交通的唯一枢纽，但在几年前政府开始允许大陆其 电视机 3 他地区与台湾直接交通往来，在吸收台湾投资方面，广 布匹 6 东省和江苏省已经超越福建省。虽然如此，随着海峡两 纸品 岸关系日益改善，福建从经济上获益最大，同时也得到 水力发电量 8 中央政府的充分关注。福建省的主要经济发展动力来自 微型计算机设备 6 厦门、福州、泉州、漳州和莆田。近年来，福建省也涌 移动电话 8 现出不少后起之秀. 啤酒 10 来源：国家数据（中国国家统计局官方网站）

经济情况 福建省政府主要集中精力吸引外资投资13个行业， 福建经济和台湾经济关系密切，有着很强的互补 包括电子和信息技术、机械设备、石油化工、钢铁和有 色金属、造船、新能源、生物医药（中医药）、物流、 性——两个地区的支柱产业都包括电子产品、石油化工 和机械制造。目前全球经济持续衰退，如果充分利用这 新材料、建筑材料以及纺织品。本省其他行业还有水产 一有利的经济因素，加强两地贸易往来，将会为双方带 养殖和渔业。 来巨大收益。2013年5月，福建省会城市福州设立台湾 商品原产地证明办公室。 聚焦厦门

2012年6月，中国国家工商行政管理总局出台16条 福州是福建省省会城市，而厦门市则是福建省重要 政策措施，以推动福建地区经济发展，加强该地区与台 的贸易枢纽，也是中国四个经济特区之一（其他三个特 湾地区的联系。新政策授予当地工商部门直接处理外商 区是广东省的深圳市、珠海市和汕头市）。厦门港和厦 投资企业注册登记和其他商业许可的权力，无需再通过 门机场是全国第三大最繁忙的港口及机场，仅次于广州 国家工商总局北京办公室办理，为台湾企业进入福建市 新白云国际机场和深圳宝安机场。 场提供更多便利。此外，新政策允许台资企业在户外广 告发布中使用繁体中文及在企业名称中使台湾地区习惯 厦门外资企业进出口贸易总量占该市进出口总量的 用语。这些政策有利于台资企业降低经营成本，吸引更 一半以上，也占福建省进出口总量半数以上。厦门雄厚的 多大企业和项目进驻平潭地区。 外资为当地服务外包企业提供了开拓海外市场的良机。

福建省以往的支柱产业包括农业、制鞋业和服装 厦门较重要的服务外包业务有：针对日本市场的信 业。近年来，随着高技术电子产品的不断发展，福建省 息技术服务外包、针对台湾市场的物流和供应链外包、 工业集群越来越集中于电子信息、设备制造和石油化 集成电路设计、动漫游戏以及呼叫中心服务外包业务。 工，这些产业在工业总产值的比重超过60%。 福建省政府一直坚持促进新兴产业发展的政策，包 福建省设备制造产业的典型代表当属中国龙工控股 括新一代信息技术、生物和新医药、新材料、新能源、 有限公司，是中国最大的建筑机械制造商之一（专营装载 节能环保、高端装备制造以及海洋高新产业。到2015 机、压路机、挖掘机、叉车等产品的生产与销售）。2011 年，省政府计划提高新兴产业总产值到3000亿元人民 年底，该公司在龙岩经济开发区投资建设的挖掘机生产线 币，占全省生产总值比重12%。 建成投产，项目总投资35亿元人民币，预计年产能1.5万 台挖掘机。 目前，福建省正大力推动海洋经济，以此作为福 建经济增长的新动力。2013年，福建省将全面启动海洋 为了支持设备制造产业的发展，福建省政府积极推 经济试点项目，预计到2015年，福建省海洋生产总值达 进电力生产。例如，政府在福清市规划建设的生活垃圾 到7300亿元人民币，占全省地区生产总值的28%以上， 焚烧发电厂已经在2011年完工并投入运行。 到2020年全面建成海洋经济强省。此外，福建省将完善

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ing, as well as integrated circuit design, animated games and call • Expand cooperation with Hong Kong and encourage center service outsourcing businesses targeted towards Taiwan. Hong Kong financial institutions to set up branches in The Fujian provincial government has a standing policy to Fujian. promote the development of emerging industries, including next-generation information technology, biotechnology and Much of the Plan’s focus is placed on cooperation with Tai- new medicine, new materials, new energy, energy-saving tech- wan, for example in modern services such as the legal, interme- nology, high-end equipment manufacturing, and the marine diary, medical and health, cultural, service outsourcing, com- high-tech industry. By 2015, the provincial government aims mercial exhibition, shipping and logistics and R&D industries. to increase the value of emerging industries to RMB300 billion, The Plan encourages the introduction of Taiwanese hospitals, accounting for 12 percent of Fujian’s GDP. rehabilitation centers and retirement homes to Fujian, and Tai- The province is now vigorously promoting the marine econ- wanese residents are encouraged to start businesses and partici- omy as its new growth engine. Fujian initiated related pilot pate in politics in Fujian. projects in 2013, targeting a total output value of the industry Fujian’s import/export value grew by 4.8 percent to of RMB730 billion by 2015. If achieved, this would contribute US$177.50 billion in 2014. Exports reachedUS$113.46 bil- more than 28 percent of total regional product and turn the lion while imports reached US$64.04 billion, increased by 6.6 province into a marine economic powerhouse by 2020. The percent and 1.9 percentres pectively. For 2014, trade volume province is also set to improve the organization of its ports and is expected to grow by 6 percent, and foreign investment by 6 optimize resource allocation. The province’s coastal resources percent . for building deep water berths of 10,000 tons to 30,000 tons rank first in the country; this is planned as the basis for an am- Spotlight on Development Zones bitious move to turn Fujian an internationally competitive ship- Fujian’s development zones received great attention under ping center. To this end, the provincial government has plans to China’s 11th Five Year Plan, in which the State Council approved establish a special fund of RMB1 billion for the development of free trade port zones both in Xiamen and Fuzhou and upgraded marine economy. three provincial development zones - China Merchants Zhang- Fujian’s 12th Five-Year Plan encourages foreign investment zhou Development Zone, Quanzhou Economic and Technolog- in newly emerging strategic industries, modern services, energy ical Development Zone, Quanzhou High-tech Industrial Devel- conservation and environmental protection, and other key in- opment Zone - to state level status. dustries. The Plan also aims to: Fujian’s development zones are also representative of the province’s economy as a whole. For example, the province’s • Increase cooperation with large international corpo- development zones include three state-level investment zones rations through technological cooperation and asset specifically aimed at Taiwanese businesses, located in Fuzhou, M&As; Quanzhou and Zhangzhou. Auto-parts are a major product • Optimize the structure of exported products by en- in Fujian province and this is no more clearly seen than in couraging the export of high-tech, electrical and me- Hua’an Economic Development Zone, which is home to the chanical products with independent IPR, as well as “aluminium wheel production project.” According to Fujian high added-value labor-intensive products; government plans, this zone will develop an auto spare parts • Promote the accelerated transformation and upgrad- industrial cluster that produces car wheels, car bearings, tyresas ing of the processing trade, and encourage domestic well as auto glass products, among others. In addition, several and foreign enterprises to cooperate in the expansion new-energy vehicles and fork-lift trucks manufacturers will also from simple assembly and processing to the inclusion be housed in the area. of R&D, design, core component manufacturing, and The West Coast Economic Zone (also known as the West- logistics; ern Taiwan Straits Economic Zone) covers the entirety of Fujian • Restrict the export of high-energy consumption, province, as well as several cities in the Zhejiang, Guangdong, high-pollution and resource-intensive products; and Jiangxi provinces. The Zone, described in China’s 12th Five • Encourage the import of advanced equipment and Year Plan, was proposed by the Fujian government and Chinese technologies, important resources, key component central government with the purpose of facilitating political and parts and goods for daily consumption that are neces- economic relationships across the Taiwan Straits and acceler- sary for economic development so as to optimize the ating economic development along the coastal cities in Fujian province’s import structure; province. • Strengthen the certification of enterprises and products entering the global market; and

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全省港口规划，优化资源配置。福建拥有丰富的岸线资 福建省政府规划把华安县经济开发区建设成为汽车零部 源，全省可建十万吨级到三十万吨级深水泊位的岸线资 件产业集群，专门生产车轮、汽车轴承、轮胎、汽车玻 源位列全国第一。该省将会充分利用丰富的岸线资源， 璃等产品。此外，多家新能源汽车、叉车企业也进驻工 把东南航运中心打造成具有较强国际竞争力的国际航运 业园内。 物流中心。福建省政府将设立10亿元人民币专项资金， 用于发展海洋经济。 西岸经济区（也叫做海峡西岸经济区）覆盖福建全 省区域以及浙江省、广东省以及江西省几个城市。福建 福建省“十二五”规划鼓励外商投资战略性新兴产 省政府和中国中央政府提出发展海峡西岸经济区，目的 业、现代服务业、节能环保产业和其他重要产业。该规 在于推动发展海峡两岸政治经济关系，促进福建省沿海 划提出的目标包括： 城市的经济发展。海峡西岸经济区建设被列入中国“十 二五”规划。 • 通过技术合作和资产并购等方式增加与国际大企 业的合作； • 优化出口商品结构，鼓励具有自主知识产权的高 技术产品、机电产品和高附加值劳动密集型产品 出口； • 积极推进加工贸易转型升级，鼓励国内外企业广 泛协作，加快从组装加工向研发、设计、核心元 器件制造和物流等环节拓展； • 严格限制高耗能、高污染、资源性产品出口； • 优化进口结构，鼓励进口经济发展急需的先进装 备技术、重要资源、关键零部件和满足不同层次 需求的生活消费品； • 加强企业和产品进入国际市场的认证； • 拓展闽港合作，鼓励更多的香港金融机构来闽设 立分支机构。

“十二五”规划把重点放在与台湾的合作上，例 如加强在法律、中介服务、医疗养生、文化创意、服务 外包、商务会展、航运物流、科技研发等现代服务行业 的合作。同时积极引进台湾医院、康复机构、养老服务 等，鼓励台湾人才来闽投资创业，参政议政。

2014年，福建省进出口总值达到1775亿美元，同比 增长4.8%，其中出口额达到1134.6亿美元，进口额则达 到640.4亿美元，同比分别增长6.6%及1.9%。2014年福 建省贸易总额增长6%，利用外资总额增长6%。

聚焦经济开发区

在中国“十一五”规划期间，福建省的经济开发区 受到广泛关注。在此期间，中国国务院批准建立厦门和 福州两个自由贸易港，并把招商局漳州开发区、泉州经 济技术开发区以及泉州高新技术产业开发区三个省级经 济开发区升级为国家级开发区。

福建省的经济开发区代表了全省的经济发展状况。 例如，位于福州、泉州和漳州的三个国家级经济开发区 主要针对台湾业务。汽车零部件是福建省的主要产品， 已不仅限于“铝车轮项目”的故乡华安县经济开发区。

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3.4 Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region

Link to South Asia zhou. Pinyang produces ceramics, fans, felt caps, copperware, combs, brushes and straw bonnets. As the only province of China with both land and water In January 2012, Sinopec opened a renovated refinery in connections to Southeast Asia, Guangxi’s position was signifi- the coastal city of Beihai. The new facility can refine 100,000 cantly enhanced by the inauguration of the China-ASEAN barrels per day, and is integrated with a 200,000 ton-per-year Free Trade Area in early 2010. The province borders Vietnam to polypropylene unit for producing plastics. the west and is connected to Hong Kong and Macau by the Xi River. Cross-border, small-value trade with Vietnam accounted Spotlight on Development Zones for around 57 percent of Guangxi’s total exports in 2014. Guangxi is also home to new high-tech development zones The provincial capital of Nanning in particular plays a aimed at attracting investors in the logistics, bio-engineering, key role in China-ASEAN relations. The city is the perma- IT, electronic components and shipping industries. The Nan- nent home of the annual China-ASEAN Expo and the Chi- ning-Guizhou-Kunming Economic Belt and the Beibu Gulf na-ASEAN Economic Park, a provincial-level park based in Economic Zone are being constructed and efforts are being the Nanning Overseas Chinese Investment Zone, which aims taken to enhance the cooperation with Taiwan and other areas to enhance cooperation between the region and the ASEAN in and outside of Guangxi. At present, over 3,000 companies countries. have settled into Guangxi’s 37 industrial parks, including China Petroleum, SDIC Power Holdings, Sinar Mas Group of Indo- Economy nesia, Noble Group of Singapore, China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO) and Coca Cola. Guangxi is home to many ethnic minority groups and its The High-Tech Industrial Development Zones of Nanning, economy is based on agriculture and tourism (especially the Liuzhou, Qinzhou, Guilin, and Yuchai all generated an indus- city of Guilin, known for its proximity to the Lijiang River trial output value over RMB10 billion in 2011. In addition to and Karst Peaks). Key agricultural products include sugarcane, industrial output value, the development zones are a key source of which Guangxi is the leading producer in China, and silk- of jobs in the province. The province’s industrial zones have worm products. Major grain crops include rice, maize, wheat been developing their industrial cluster according to the area and sweet potatoes. Leading commercial crops include peanuts, characteristics. For example, the coastal areas of Qinzhou, Bei- sesame, ramie, tobacco, tea, cotton, and indigo. Guangxi is also hai and Fangcheng are now focused on petrochemicals, power a major producer of fruit: most notably pomelos, tangerines, plants, manganese steel, sugar, and high-tech products. mandarin oranges, lemons, lychee, pears, papayas, bananas and Efforts have been made by the local government to increase pineapples. The region’s timber (sandalwood and cork) and both foreign- and domestic investment in the region. Global fishing industries are both important contributors to the local companies like Toyota, General Motors, NEC and IBM have all economy. made investments in Guangxi. Many large enterprises have estab- The province is also known for its wide variety of minerals lished regional headquarters in the city since July 2010 (when and metals, and its aluminium processing industry. In 2011, incentives were introduced to encourage doing so), including the Guangxi launched a new materials research and development brewer, Tsingtao, and household appliance maker, Haier. center, investing RMB30 million in R&D for new metallic As part of the China-ASEAN framework, the Pan-Beibu materials, the comprehensive utilization of low-quality iron re- Gulf Economic Cooperation Zone is comprised of the Guangxi sources, and laterite-nickel ore. Zhuang autonomous region, Guangdong and Hainan provinc- Food processing, auto manufacturing, petrochemicals, pow- es, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines er generation, nonferrous metals, metallurgy and machinery are and Brunei. the seven key industries of Guangxi. In addition, building mate- rials, pharmaceutics, textiles and garments, shipbuilding, as well Infrastructure as the marine equipment manufacturing industries have grown rapidly in recent years. Pine resin is notable as an export-ori- Air ented commodity produced in the city of Wuzhou. The prov- Guangxi’s airports include Nanning Wuwei, Guilin Liang- ince’s heavy industries include iron, cement and steel works in he, Beihai Fucheng, Liuzhou Baihe, and the much smaller Baise Liuzhou, as well as machinery production in Nanning and Wu- Tianyang and Quzhou Cheung Chau Island.

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3.4 广西壮族自治区

连接南亚的通道 聚焦经济开发区

广西自治区拥有多个高新技术开发区，旨在吸引外 广西壮族自治区是中国唯一一个与南亚有水路两路 商对物流、生物工程、信息技术、电子零部件和造船业 直接交通的省份。2010年初，中国-东盟自由贸易区正 的投资。南宁-贵州-昆明经济带和北部湾经济区目前正 式建立，广西的重要性进一步加强。广西自治区西临越 在建设之中，同时政府也不遗余力加强与台湾和自治区 南，通过西江与香港和澳门连接，地理位置优越。2014 内外地区的合作。目前，超过3000家企业进驻37个工业 年广西与越南跨境、小额贸易约占全省出口总额的57%。 园，其中包括中国石油集团、国投华靖电力控股有限公 司、印尼金光集团、新加坡来宝集团、中国粮油食品集 广西省会城市南宁在中国-东盟关系中扮演了尤其 团以及可口可乐公司。 重要的角色。南宁是中国-东盟博览会和中国-东盟经济 园的永久举办城市，中国-东盟经济园位于南宁市华侨 南宁、柳州、钦州、桂林、玉柴的高科技工业开发 投资区。作为省级经济园，中国-东盟经济园有利于加 区在2011年创造的工业总产值均超过100亿元人民币。 强广西与东盟国家的合作。 除了贡献工业总产值外，开发区也为广西创造大量就业 机会。各个工业区根据地方特点发展产业集群，例如， 经济情况 沿海地区的钦州、北海和防城港目前主要发展石油化 工、发电、锰钢、蔗糖和高技术产品。 广西自治区少数民族众多，其经济主要以农业和旅 游业为基础（特别是以漓江风景和石灰岩山峰闻名的桂 广西各级地方政府努力吸引国内外资本在该地区的 林市）。当地农产品有甘蔗以及桑蚕制品，广西是中国 投资。跨国企业如丰田、通用汽车、日本电气（NEC） 最大的蔗糖生产基地。主要粮食作物包括水稻、玉米、 和美国国际商业机器公司（IBM）等公司纷纷落户广 小麦和甘薯。主要经济作物有花生、芝麻、苎麻、烟 西。政府实行激励措施，吸引大型企业在广西开设区域 草、茶叶、棉花和靛蓝。广西也盛产水果，最著名的水 总部。自2010年7月以来，共有三十家大型企业在广西 果有柚子、柑桔、橘子、柠檬、荔枝、梨子、木瓜、香 建立区域总部，其中包括啤酒制造商青岛啤酒股份有限 蕉和菠萝。该地区木业出产檀香木和软木，水产是当地 公司以及家电制造商海尔集团。 另外一项重要产业。 作为中国-东盟合作框架的内容之一，泛北部湾经济 广西具有种类繁多的矿物和金属，铝加工业比较发 合作区成员包括广西壮族自治区、广东省、海南省、越 达。2011年，广西新建了各类矿物质研究与发展中心， 南、马来西亚、新加坡、印度尼西亚、菲律宾以及文莱。 投入3000万元人民币，用于研究开发新金属材料、综合 利用低质量铁资源和含镍铁矾土资源。 基础设施 食品加工、汽车制造、石油化工、发电、有色金 属、冶金和机械是广西自治区的七大支柱产业。此外， 航空 建筑材料、制药、纺织品和服装、造船以及海洋设备制 造产业也在快速发展。松木树脂是梧州特有的出口商 广西的机场包括南宁吴圩机场、桂林两河机场、 品。广西的重工业包括柳州的炼铁、炼钢和水泥制造业 北海福成机场、柳州白莲机场以及小型机场百色田阳机 以及南宁和梧州的机械制品。广西平阳主要生产陶瓷、 场、梧州长洲岛机场。 扇子、毡帽、铜器、梳子、毛笔和草帽等。 铁路 2012年1月，中国石油在广西沿海城市北海的炼油 厂完成改造，重新投入使用。新炼油厂每天可以炼油10 广西的铁路网远远落后于临近省份，目前正在发展 万桶，其炼油化工一体化项目20万吨聚丙烯厂也同时投 和扩建。广西在2011-2015年间已投入3000亿元人民币 入塑料生产。 建设铁路运输网。

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Rail Guangxi’s railway network, which has long lagged behind that of neighboring provinces, is currently undergoing devel- opment and expansion. The province plans to spend RMB300 billion on railway construction between 2011 and 2015. This project is integrally connected to Guangxi’s develop- ment of trade with ASEAN. The province plans to accelerate the construction of a high-speed railway from Nanning to Sin- gapore via Vietnam as the groundwork for the Nanning-Singa- pore Economic Corridor. The first step of this is a railway segment between Nanning and Pingxiang, a city near China’s border with Vietnam. The larger Corridor is planned to encompass Hanoi in Vietnam, Vientiane in Laos, Phnom Penh in Cambodia, Bangkok in Thailand, Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia, and Singapore.

Ports and Waterways Guangxi’s main port is at Beibuwan (Gulf of Tonkin), which lies just off the coast of northeastern Vietnam and has an an- nual goods output approximately equal to that of Guangdong’s Zhanjiang and Fujian’s Xiamen combined (119 million tons). The province plans to raise the capacity of the port to over 330 million tons by the end of 2015, according to Guangxi’s “De- velopment Plan” and Xinhua News Agency. In 2011, it invested heavily in terminal and navigation channel projects with the goal of turning the port into a hub for ASEAN trade.

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其中一条重要铁路的建设关系到与东盟国家的贸易 关系的发展。广西计划加快修建从南宁至新加坡的高速铁 路，连接越南，为建设南宁-新加坡经济走廊做好准备。

修建南宁-新加坡高速铁路的第一步是建设南宁到 中国边境凭祥萍乡市路段的铁路。南宁-新加坡经济走 廊以南宁为起点，经过越南首都河内、老挝首都万象、 柬埔寨首都金边、泰国首都曼谷、马来西亚首都吉隆 坡，一直到达新加坡。

水路及港口

北部湾港（东京湾）是广西的主要港口，面向越南 东北部海岸，每年货物吞吐量大约相当于广东湛江港或 福建厦门港的总和（1.19亿吨）。据广西壮族自治区发 展规划以及新华社消息，广西计划到2015年提高港口吞 吐量至3.3亿吨。2011年，广西投入大量资金建设渡口 和航道，希望把北部湾港建设成为东盟贸易枢纽。

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3.5 Hainan Province 2013 Hainan’s Major Industrial Products National Rank (total 30 provinces/municipalities)

An Island of Tourism and Agriculture Product National Rank Refined Sugar 5 Hainan province includes over two hundred islands off of Natural Gas 18 China’s southern coast in the South China Sea, with Hainan Crude Oil 16 Island (30 miles off the coast of Guangdong) accounting for 97 Cars 21 percent of provincial land area. China’s smallest province and Paper 16 largest special economic zone, Hainan is at the same latitude as Fertilizer 21 Hawaii, Bali and Phuket and has developed into one of China’s Hydropower 22 prime resort areas, earning the nickname “oriental Hawaii.” Chemical Fiber 23 Although the service industry accounted for 51.9 percent of Source: National Data(Official website of NBS) GDP `in 2014 , Hainan also has the largest primary sector of all of China’s provinces , through the important contribution of its Shopping Center has attracted a vast number of top-end and fisheries and tropical cash crops like coconuts, pepper, coffee, flagship stores to its 125,000 square meter complex after open- tea and rubber. ing in September 2014. The accumulative value of the duty-free goods purchased Economy per one-time visitor departing from Hainan Island is limited to RMB8, 000 and the allowable quantity of each individual type While many of the tourists who travel to Hainan are Chi- of good is as shown in the Annex. As long as the import duty nese, the government is attempting to change this; the State of the goods has been paid, each visitor may also purchase one Council has announced a strategic plan to make Hainan a product priced over RMB8, 000. world-class international tourist destination by 2020. The cen- Hainan Island occupies 42.5 percent of the nation’s total tral government has approved a further 15 resorts and 63 five- tropical landmass used for agriculture, forestry, animal husband- star hotels as part of the island’s existing Five-Year Plan. Tourists ry and fishery. Major agricultural industries include natural rub- may visit the island without a visa as long as they are part of a ber, coffee, tobacco, tropical flowers and tropical fruits such as tour group organized by a state-approved international travel coconuts, watermelons and bananas. Hainan is also developing agency. aromatic vegetables into a major industry. The most valuable government policies issued in connection The province is home to 70 percent of China’s titanium with promoting Hainan as an international tourist destination reserves and is a major salt production center. Main exports are the island’s duty-free policies, post-departure tax refunds, include aquatic products, furniture and wood, electrical and and visa exemptions for tourists from 26 countries and regions. electronic products, and iron and steel. Hainan’s main import Since April 2011, tourists have been able to purchase du- and export trading partners are the E.U., ASEAN, the U.S. and ty-free commodities at duty-free stores in the province and leave Japan. the island by air, greatly increasing tourism and high-end con- Hainan’s territory covers an enormous amount of seabed - a sumption. Having recognized the tremendous benefits brought radius of about 200 miles around the island area - and the local to the local economy by the policy, the Chinese central govern- government is keen to exploit this in terms of aquaculture and ment loosened previous restrictions in October 2012. The min- offshore oil and gas production in the South China Sea. Since imum age for purchasing duty-free commodities was lowered to 1996, Hainan has been supplying Hong Kong with natural gas 16, while the upper value limit for duty-free commodities was through a 770-kilometer pipeline. Large oil and gas reserves increased from RMB5, 000 to RMB8, 000. Moreover, three have been discovered in the South China Sea, a major source of additional categories of commodities have been added to the conflict between China and its neighboring countries in recent duty-free list, namely, beauty and health care products, table- times. ware and kitchen appliances, and toys - expanding the scope of The 12th Five-Year Plan of Hainan aims to promote the duty-free commodities to 21 categories. modern service industries, including tourism, commercial exhi- In an effort to bring the huge potential of the duty-free pol- bitions, modern logistics, and sports and leisure. It also aims to icy into full play, construction of the world’s largest duty-free greatly increase investment into the new energy, new materials shopping center has begun in the resort city of Sanya. With an and biomedical industries, such that they become the province’s investment of RMB3.45 billion, the Haitang Bay International main pillars of economic growth. The Plan hopes to form five

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3.5 海南省 2013年海南省主要工业产品 全国排名（共30个省/直辖市）

旅游和农业之岛 产品 全国排名

成品糖 5 海南省由两百多个岛屿构成，位于中国南海，与 天然气 18 大陆南部沿海相对望。海南岛（距离广东南部沿海30英 原油 16 里）的面积占全省陆地面积的97%。海南岛是中国最小的 汽车 21 省份，也是最大的经济特区，与夏威夷岛、巴厘岛、布 纸张 16 吉岛处于同一纬度之上，目前已经发展成为中国首屈一 化肥 21 指的旅游度假胜地，被誉为“东方夏威夷”。 水能 22 化学纤维 23 虽然服务业占全省国内生产总值比重在2014年达到 来源：国家数据（中国国家统计局官方网站） 51.9%，海南省也拥有全国最大的渔业和经济作物种植 离岛旅客每人每次累计免税购物金额不得超过8000 业，像椰子、辣椒、咖啡、茶叶和橡胶等经济作物都在 元人民币，各种免税商品的购买限制数量可参考《暂行 全国占有极其重要的地位。 办法》附件内容。旅客在按完税价格全额缴纳进境物品 进口税的条件下，每人每次还可以购买1件单价8000元 经济情况 人民币以上的商品。

目前到海南省旅游的大多都是中国游客。为了改变 海南岛拥有全国42.5%的热带大陆，用以发展农 这种情况，中国国务院宣布了战略性规划，力争到2020 业、林业、畜牧业和渔业。主要农业生产作物包括天然 年把海南省建设成为世界级的“国际旅游目的地”。经 橡胶、咖啡、烟草、热带花卉、热带水果如椰子、西 中央政府批准，海南省新增15个旅游度假村和63家五星 瓜、香蕉等。同时，海南省把香料种植加工发展成为主 级酒店，这也是海南省当前“五年规划”的既定目标之 要产业。 一。持有中国国家旅游局许可的国际旅行社可以组织免 签旅游团，参加免签旅游团的外国游客不需要签证即可 海南省蕴含着中国70%的钛矿资源，也是中国主要 到海南岛旅游。 的产盐中心。主要出口产品包括水产品、家具和木材、 电气和电子产品、钢铁产品等。海南省主要进出口贸易 中央政府一直积极推动海南岛发展成为国际旅游 伙伴为欧盟、东盟、美国和日本。 目的地。在已出台的政策中，最有价值的包括有免税政 策、离岛退税政策以及旅游团免签政策，目前免签政策 海南省拥有开阔的海床，其面积覆盖海南岛周围 已经扩大到26个国家和地区。 半径200英里范围之内。海南省各级政府充分发挥地理 优势，积极发展水产业以及在南海地区开发近海石油和 从2011年4月开始，游客可以在免税商店购买免税 天然气。自1996年以来，海南岛一直通过长达770公里 商品，然后乘飞机离开海南岛，这极大地促进了海南省 的管道向香港输送天然气。南海发现大量的石油和天然 旅游业和高端购物消费。得益于离岛免税政策，海南省 气储量，很多分析人士认为未来海南岛具有无限发展潜 经济增长迅猛。为了延续增长势头，中国中央政府决定 能。然而南海附近岛屿的归属问题，中国和其他临近国 于2012年10月放宽离岛免税政策门槛，政策适用对象年 家一直存在很大争议。 龄下调至年满16周岁，离岛旅客每人每次免税购物限额 从5000元人民币上调至8000元人民币。此外，免税商品 海南省“十二五”规划提出促进发展现代服务产 新增三大类产品，包括保健及美容器材、餐具及厨房用 业作为主导产业的目标，包括旅游业、商务会展、现代 品和玩具，免税商品种类扩大至21种。 物流、运动休闲。同时大幅度提高对新能源、新材料和 生物医学产业的投资力度，使之成为拉动经济增长的主 为了让免税购物政策发挥最大作用，世界最大的免 要支柱产业。规划希望形成五大工业集群，包括汽车制 税购物中心已在度假胜地三亚落成。座落在海棠湾的国 造、食品饮料、农产品加工、光伏工业、医药制药、文 际购物中心耗资34.5亿人民币，占地12.5万平方米。自 化创意和休闲娱乐产业，到2015年总产值达到100亿元 2014年开业以来已吸引了众多高端品牌及旗舰店进驻。 人民币。加快发展高尔夫和游艇旅游业，引进一系列具 有国际影响力的高尔夫锦标赛，开发高尔夫培训和相关

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industry groups in the automobile, food & beverage and agri- Infrastructure cultural product processing, photovoltaic, medical and phar- maceutical, cultural and creativity, and leisure and entertain- Air ment industries, with output of over RMB10 billion by 2015. Hainan’s airports include Sanya Fenghuang and Haikou It also plans to accelerate the development of the golf and yacht Meilan, which handle the major inflow of visitors to the prov- industries by introducing a series of internationally influential ince. golf tournaments, developing golf training and associated in- dustries, and establishing yacht trading venues and yacht clubs. Rail The Plan also encourages the creation of a base for manufactur- Hainan’s east ring intercity rail connects its major cities of ing travel equipment including for yachts, residential vehicles, Haikou and Sanya. An additional high-speed railway is planned outdoor sports, scuba diving, and golf. In addition, the Plan for the west coast of Hainan, and a ferry link connects Hainan’s aims to cultivate three to five medical, health and rehabilita- railroad to the mainland. tion institutions meeting international advanced standards and providing services such as Chinese medicine, hot springs and Ports and Waterways dietary therapy. Hainan’s largest harbors are located at Haikou, Sanya, Basuo In terms of raising innovative capability, the Plan encourag- and Yangpu. es enterprises with the necessary conditions to establish state, provincial and municipal-level key laboratories and state and provincial-level key engineering technology R&D centers, and aims to cultivate a group of high- and new- technology enter- prises, innovative enterprises, and state and provincial-level IPR pilot enterprises. Well-known domestic and foreign schools are encouraged to establish branch schools in the province and large enterpris- es to establish training bases in Haikou, the provincial capital. Local schools are encouraged to establish mutual recognition of courses and accreditation with foreign schools. In addition, the development of accounting, legal, economic appraisal and consulting services are encouraged, with the Plan aiming to cul- tivate a group of internationally renowned intermediary service enterprises. In terms of the environment, the Plan hopes to achieve a 100 percent urban waste treatment and disposal rate and a 90 per- cent urban waste water treatment rate, and prohibits the devel- opment of high energy consumption, high water consumption, high emission and overcapacity industries. The Plan also aims to achieve a 95 percent utilization rate of clean energy by 2015, and for all key projects and large-scale public facilities to com- prehensively implement contract energy management. The Plan aims to actively promote Haikou’s economic ex- change and cooperation with the pan-PRD region and with international sister cities, as well as expand economic coopera- tion and trading with the 10+1 ASEAN nations. In addition, it hopes to adjust and optimize the province’s export goods struc- ture and encourages and supports expanding the export of pho- tovoltaics, marine products, food and beverages, and electrical and mechanical products. In addition, it hopes to adjust and optimize the structure of FDI utilization by increasing efforts to attract investment in the high- and new-technology indus- tries, modern service industries, and public infrastructure.

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行业，建立游艇贸易场所和游艇俱乐部。规划鼓励打造 基础设施 旅游设备制造业基地，制造包括游艇设备、私家车、户 外运动、潜水运动和高尔夫运动。此外，规划提出要培 航空 育3-5个符合国际先进标准的医疗、健康和康复机构， 同时能提供中医药、温泉、纤体等服务。 海南岛现有三亚凤凰国际机场和海口美兰国际机场 两个机场，输送大部分出入海南省的旅客。 在提升创新能力方面，规划鼓励有条件的企业建立 国家级、省级和市级重点实验室和国家级、省级重点工 铁路 程技术研发中心，并培育一批高新技术企业、创新型企 业和国家级、省级自主知识产权试点企业。 海南岛东环市际轨道连接岛内两大城市海口和三 亚。当地政府计划在海南岛西岸建造另一条高速铁路，琼 规划鼓励国内外知名院校到海南省建立分校，支持 州海峡渡口连通海南岛铁路与大陆铁路。 大型企业在省会城市海口设立培训基地，鼓励省内学校 与外国学校建立课程、学分互相承认制度。此外，规划 水路及港口 鼓励发展会计、法律、经济评估和咨询服务等行业，培 育一批国际知名的中介服务机构。 海南岛最大的港口为海口港、三亚港、八所港和洋 浦港。 在环境保护方面，规划希望实现城市垃圾处理率达 到100%，城市污水处理率达到90%。高能耗、高水耗、 高排放量工业和产能过剩产业将被禁止继续发展。此 外，到2015年，全省实现清洁能源使用率95%，所有重 点项目、大型公共设施项目将全面实施合同能源管理。

规划还提出，要积极促进海口市与泛珠三角地区 以及国际友好城市之间的经济交流与合作，扩大与东盟 10+1各国的经济合作与贸易往来。此外，规划希望调整 和优化出口商品结构，鼓励和支持增加光伏产品、海洋 产品、食品和饮料以及电子机械产品的出口。同时，规 划提出调整和优化直接使用外资的结构，努力吸引外资 投向高新技术产业、现代服务业和公共基础设施。

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3.6 Hong Kong Special Administrative Region

East Asia’s Logistics and Financial Hub To enhance cooperation between Hong Kong and Mainland China in the services sector, the Chinese central government and Situated at the southeastern tip of China, Hong Kong is at the government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Re- the center of East Asia. Since its return to the Chinese Mainland gion signed the “Tenth Supplement to the Mainland and Hong in 1997, the special administrative region has been a model for Kong Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement” (CEPA) on the success of the “One Country, Two Systems” policy. Hong August 29, 2013, which takes effect on January 1, 2014. Kong is the world’s 10th largest trading economy, 6th biggest The Tenth Supplement further relaxes the market access foreign exchange market and, with its service sector accounting conditions in 28 existing sectors, namely: for more than 90 percent of GDP, the world’s most service-ori- ented economy, according to the Hong Kong Development and Legal Trade Council. Construction Distribution Hong Kong encompasses Hong Kong Island, the Kowloon Computer and related services Environment Peninsula and the New Territories. Parts of the region consist of Real estate Banking the most densely populated places in the world, while others are Market research Securities quite rural. Approximately 88 percent of the population speaks Technical testing & analysis Hospital services Cantonese as their first language, rather than the mainland’s of- services Social services ficial language of Mandarin Chinese. Placement and supply services Tourism of personnel Cultural Economy Building-cleaning Sporting Photographic Maritime transport Major economic sectors of Hong Kong include: trade and Printing Air transport logistics, tourism, financial services, professional services and Convention and exhibition Road transport other producer services. Mainland China is Hong Kong’s larg- Translation and interpretation Freight forwarding est trading partner and the largest source of external direct in- services agency vestment into Hong Kong. Its relationship covers a wide range Telecommunications Trademark agency of activities ranging from traditional areas such as imports/ Audiovisual exports, wholesale and retail, banking and transport and ware- housing, to newer areas such as real estate, hotels, financial ser- Furthermore, under the Circular, service providers of Hong vices, manufacturing and infrastructure development. Kong and Macao are permitted to establish wholly-invested en- tertainment places in the pilot areas of Qianhai, Shenzhen and Spotlight on CEPA’s Tenth Supplement Hengqin, Zhuhai. In December 2001, after China’s accession to the WTO, Hong Kong’s savvy global business environment has paired Hong Kong proposed an arrangement with mainland China well with the PRD’s competitive manufacturing base. Accord- similar to a free trade agreement. By 2002, the official term, ing to China Customs’ statistics, Hong Kong is the country’s Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA), was con- second largest trading partner after the United States. In 2014, firmed. CEPA promotes closer integration and development of mainland imports from Hong Kong amounted to RMB79.2 the PRD through trade in goods and services, investment facil- billion, while exports to Hong Kong were RMB2230.7 billion . itation and tourism. Hong Kong overtook London and New York to claim the The basic objectives of CEPA are to phase out tariffs and top spot in the 2011 World Economic Forum Financial De- non-tariff barriers on trade in commodities, liberalize trade in velopment Index, marking 2011 as the first year an Asian city services and reduce and eliminate all discriminatory measures has topped the rankings. The World Economic Forum is based to boost trade and investment in the Greater PRD. For man- on several financial indicators, including financial access, busi- ufacturing industries, CEPA allows the vast majority of manu- ness environment, banking and financial services, transparency, factured goods that meet Hong Kong rule of origin and CEPA institutional environment, non-banking financial services and specifications into the Chinese mainland duty-free. In the ser- financial markets. Hong Kong is consecutively ranked as the vice sector, CEPA gives Hong Kong companies in specified sec- world’s freest economy by the Wall Street Journal and Heritage tors preferential access to markets. Foundation.

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3.6 香港特别行政区

东亚物流和金融枢纽 《CEPA补充协议十》在现有的28个领域进一步放宽 了市场准入的条件： 香港坐落于中国大陆东南端，位于东亚地区的中心 地带。自从1997年回归中国大陆之后，香港特别行政区 法律 分销 已经成为“一国两制”政策成功实行的典范。根据香港 建筑 环境 贸易发展局的数据，香港是世界第十大贸易经济体，第 计算机及其相关服务 银行 六大外汇市场，其服务行业总值在全港生产总值的比重 房地产 证券 超过90%，是世界上服务行业比重最大的经济体。 市场调研 医院服务 技术检验和分析服务 社会服务 香港地区包括香港岛、九龙半岛和新界。香港部分 人员提供与安排 旅游 地区是世界上人口最密集的地区之一，而其他地区却非 建筑物清洁 文娱 常偏僻。香港大约88%人口的第一语言是粤语，而非大 摄影 体育 陆的官方语言普通话。 印刷 海上运输 会展 航空运输 笔译和口译 道路运输 经济情况 电信 货运代理 视听 商标代理 香港主要经济产业包括贸易与物流、旅游、金融 服务、专业服务及其他生产服务等。中国大陆是香港最 另外，《CEPA补充协议第十条》新增了教育服务 大的贸易伙伴，也是最大的外来直接投资来源。大陆与 领域的开放措施。该补充协议还允许香港和澳门的服务 香港之间的合作覆盖范围广泛，包括如进出口、批发 提供者在深圳市前海区和珠海市横琴新区试点设立独资 零售、银行业、运输及仓储等传统领域，和房地产、酒 娱乐场所。 店、金融服务、制造业及基础设施建设等新领域。 香港优越的国际商业环境与珠三角地区的制造业基 地结合在一起，创造出得天独厚的竞争优势。中国海关 统计数据显示，香港已经成为中国大陆的第二大贸易伙 聚焦：CEPA补充协议第十条 伴，仅次于美国。2014年，中国大陆从香港进口总额达 2001年12月，继中国加入世界贸易组织之后，香港特 到792亿美元，对香港出口总额达到2.2307万亿美元。 别行政区提出与中国内地建立一个类似自由贸易协定的安 排。2002年，官方确定此协定的名称为《与内地建立更紧 在2011年世界经济论坛发表的金融发展指数中，香 港超越伦敦和纽约跃升全球第一，2011年成为亚洲地区 密经贸关系的安排》（CEPA）。CEPA致力于加强香港与 珠三角地区的商品与服务贸易，促进贸易投资便利化， 首次问鼎该指数排名的年份。世界经济论坛的评估基于 加强旅游合作，使珠三角地区发展更快，联系更加紧密。 多个金融指标，包括金融市场准入、商业环境、银行和 金融服务、透明度、机构环境、非银行金融服务以及金 融市场等。香港多年来一直被《华尔街日报》和美国传 CEPA的基本目标是分阶段取消对商品贸易的关税和非 关税壁垒，促进服务贸易自由化，减少及消除所有歧视性 统基金会评为全球最自由经济体。 措施，推进大珠三角地区的贸易和投资。为了促进制造业 中国中央政府计划把香港建设成为人民币离岸市场 发展，CEPA允许大量满足香港原产地规定和CEPA要求的 以及跨境贸易人民币结算的重要通道。中国国家副总理 制造成品零关税进入中国内地市场。在服务业，CEPA优先 允许从事指定服务行业的香港公司进入中国内地市场。 李克强在2011年8月发表讲话称，这些措施将为香港企 业对中国大陆进行以人民币为主的直接投资提供支持。 为了加强香港与中国大陆在服务业的合作，中国中 李副总理也指出，中央政府将继续支持香港发展离岸人 央政府和香港特别行政区政府于2013年8月29日签署《<内 民币金融中心的创新举措，跨境贸易人民币结算不仅面 向香港，而应扩大至全国范围。 地与香港关于建设更紧密经贸关系的安排（CEPA）>补充 协议十》，该协议已于2014年1月1日正式实施。

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The Chinese central government plans to develop Hong from abroad without being taxed, while non-residents may be Kong as an offshore RMB market and an increasingly prom- taxed on profits arising in Hong Kong. Hong Kong regulations inent cross-border RMB trade channel. These measures will also allow companies to claim offshore status, allowing them support Hong Kong enterprises in making RMB-denominated total tax exemption on profits sourced outside of Hong Kong. direct investments into the mainland, according to statements All expenditures incurred in the generation of assessable by Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang in August 2011. Li also profits, including most interest costs, rent for office and facto- stated that the central government will support the develop- ry premises, bad debts, and salaries and payments to approved ment of offshore RMB financial products in Hong Kong and pension schemes, are deductible from gross income. Sums paid that cross-border trade settlements in RMB should be extended out on capital expenditures are not tax deductible. Losses can be to cover the whole country. carried forward without any limits. As of the end of 2014, Hong Kong held the world’s largest pool of offshore RMB funds with total deposits of RMB1150 VAT and Withholding Tax billion . To further increase the city’s competitiveness against Value-added tax (VAT) is non-existent in Hong Kong. foreign rivals such as London and Singapore, last year the There is also no withholding tax in Hong Kong for profit repa- central government allowed foreign investors to invest in triated back to the overseas parent company. RMB-denominated exchange trade funds in Hong Kong. Additionally, the government will support third parties using Salary Tax Hong Kong as a venue to settle trade and investments in RMB, There are two ways of calculating salary tax in Hong Kong and further enrich offshore RMB products in Hong Kong, for the individual taxpayers who have assessable income from according to Xinhua. employment: In terms of infrastructure development, the Hong Kong- Zhuhai-Macau Bridge (construction scheduled for 2009-2016) 1. Progressive rate. Taken on a sliding scale (2-17 percent) is expected to reduce travel time between Hong Kong and each against the taxpayer’s annual net chargeable income city from 4.5 hours to approximately 40 minutes. The SAR is (i.e. less allowable deduction and personal allowances); currently undergoing an ambitious transport infrastructure and program, and has allocated a budget of HK$15.5 billion to be 2. Standard rate. 15 percent, based on the annual net in- spent on major road and railway projects. The entirety of this come (i.e. less allowable deductions only). The final program is expected to be completed in 2020. payable income tax is the lower of the two tax liabil- Hong Kong follows a free trade policy and hence maintains ities. The maximum average tax rate in Hong Kong basically no barriers to trade: there are no customs tariffs on is thus 15 percent for the current tax year. Dividends goods imported into or exported from Hong Kong. Import and received from any corporation enjoy a tax exemption. export licensing are kept to a minimum. Most products do not need licenses to enter or leave Hong Kong and where licenses or Infrastructure notifications are required, they are only intended to fulfill obli- gations under various international agreements, or to maintain The city is currently undergoing an ambitious transport public health, safety or security. infrastructure program, and has a recent annual budget of HK$15.5 billion to be spent on major road and railway projects. Spotlight on Hong Kong Taxes The entirety of this program is expected to be completed in 2020. Corporate Income Tax Hong Kong’s simple and business-friendly tax system is a Air major attraction for foreign investors. Corporate income tax The Hong Kong International Airport at Chek Lap Kok is rates may differ slightly from year to year in Hong Kong. For the busiest airport in the world for international cargo. In 2014, the year of assessment 2008/09 onwards, the tax rate for corpo- HKIA handled 63.3 million passengers, 4.38 million tons of rations is 16.5 percent, and the profit tax rate for partnerships cargo . By 2040, efforts to expand the airport will increase its and sole traders is 15 percent. capacity to handle up to 87 million passengers and million tons Hong Kong adopts a territorial source principle of taxation, of cargo per year. The airport’s marine cargo terminal is linked which means that only profits sourced in Hong Kong are taxable with 18 ports in the Pearl River Delta. in Hong Kong. There is no distinction made between residents and non-residents, which means that residents can derive profits

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截止至2014年年底，香港持有数量最大的离岸人 1. 累进税率 根据纳税人应交税的年净收入按比 民币资金，其人民币存款总额达到1.15万亿元。为了进 例增加税率（2%-17%）（可扣除项目较少，个 一步提高香港的国际竞争力，应对来自竞争对手伦敦和 人免税额较少） 新加坡的挑战，中央政府去年决定允许外国投资者在香 港投资以人民币计价的交易所交易基金。另据新华网报 2. 标准税率 根据纳税人的年净收入课税15%（可 道，中央政府将支持第三方在香港办理人民币贸易投资 扣除项目较少）最终支付的薪俸税率是两种计 结算，并进一步丰富香港人民币离岸产品。 算方法之中较低的一个税率。因此，在本课税 年度，香港平均最高的薪俸税率为15%。从任 在基础设施建设方面，港珠澳大桥（建设时间 何企业获得的分红收入可以免税。 2009-2016年）建成通车之后，开车从香港到珠海的时 间将由4.5小时缩减为约40分钟。香港特别行政区目前 正在进行一项规模庞大的交通基础设施工程，每年投入 基础设施 资金155亿港元，用于建造大型道路和铁路项目。预计 整个工程将于2020年完工。 香港目前正在进行一项规模庞大的交通基础设施工 程，每年投入预算资金155亿港元，用于建造大型道路 香港实行自由贸易政策，因此基本上不存在贸易壁 和铁路项目。预计整个工程将于2020年完工。 垒。在香港进出口货物不需要支付关税。进出口许可要 求维持在最低限度，大多数商品出入香港不需要许可， 航空 即使要求许可或知会文件，也是为了遵守国际承诺履行 相关义务，或者出于公共卫生安全和安保原因。 香港赤邋角国际机场是世界上最繁忙的国际货运机 场，2014年香港国际机场旅客吞吐量达到6330万人次， 聚焦香港税收政策 货邮吞吐量达到438万吨。预计到2040年每年旅客吞吐 量上升至8700万人次，货邮吞吐量达到900万吨。机场 利得税（企业所得税） 海运码头连接着珠江三角柱地区18个港口。 香港实行简单又有利于商业的税收制度，这是对外 来投资者的最大吸引力。香港的利得税可能每年都有些 铁路 微差异。在2008/09课税年度，香港企业利得税税率是 16.5%，个人或合伙经营企业利得税税率为15%。 近年来，政府已经完成五个新铁路项目，使香港的 铁路网扩大了35%，总里程达到200公里，公共交通比重从 香港税制实行地域来源征税原则，只向在香港地 31%增加到39%。香港的大型铁路项目有广九铁路（KCR） 区经营所得利润课税，并无香港居民或非香港居民之 扩建工程，从上水至落马洲支线共扩展7.4公里，以及广 分。也就是说，香港居民从国外获取的利润不必在香港 州-深圳-香港高速铁路，总投资达到86亿美元。 缴税，而非香港居民在香港地区经营所得利润则需要缴 税。香港法律允许企业宣布离岸地位，这样企业的全部 水路及港口 利润都可以免税。 香港港处理的货物数量约占香港货物吞吐总量的 在赚取应课税收入而付出的各项开支均可扣除，包 75%，是世界上最繁忙的集装箱港之一。香港葵涌-青衣 括大多数利息成本、租用办公室和厂房支出、坏账、员 段一共有九个集装箱码头，由五间营运商管理和营运。 工薪水以及退休金缴纳支出等。用于资本性支出的利润 这五间营运商是现代货箱码头有限公司、香港国际货柜 不可扣除，灾害损失扣除金额没有上限。 码头有限公司、中远-国际货柜码头有限公司、杜拜环 球港务以及亚洲货柜码头有限公司。大约有800家香港 增值税和预提所得税 从事船运业务的企业提供综合海运服务，包括船舶登 香港没有增值税，对送回海外总公司的利润也没有 记、法律纠纷解决服务、船舶融资和海运保险、船舶租 预提税。 赁和管理等。

薪俸税 在香港受雇工作而获得收入的个人都应缴纳薪俸 税。香港缴纳薪俸税有两种税款计算

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Rail Recently, five new rail projects expanded Hong Kong’s net- work by 35 percent to over 200 kilometers, with an increase in public transit service from 31 percent to 39 percent. The city’s major rail projects include the 7.4 kilometer extension of the Kowloon-Canton Railway (KCR) from SheungShui to Lok Ma Chau Spur Line and the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link worth US$8.6 billion.

Ports and Waterways The Hong Kong port handles about 3/4s of Hong Kong’s total cargo throughput and is among the world’s busiest con- tainer ports by cargo throughput. There are nine container ter- minals in Kwai Chung-Tsing Yi basin under the operation of five different operators, namely, the Modern Terminals, Hong Kong International Terminals Ltd, COSCO-HIT, DP World and Asia Container Terminals Ltd. There are some 800 ship- ping-related companies in Hong Kong that provide compre- hensive maritime services including ship registration, legal and dispute resolution services, ship financing and marine insur- ance, and ship-ownership and vessel management.

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3.7 Macau Special Administrative Region

The Orient’s Las Vegas nues grew by an average of 29 percent a year between 2008 and 2012. Casino revenue increased 31.7% in October year-on-year A former Portuguese colony situated at the entrance to the to 36.48 billion patacas ($4.6 billion), more than six times the Pearl River Delta only forty miles from Hong Kong, Macau is revenue of the Las Vegas Strip. However, this over-reliance on the smaller of China’s two special administrative regions – at the gaming industry has made the Chinese central government only 1/40th the size of Hong Kong, with approximately half prioritize diversification of the region’s economy. a million residents (not many more than Luxembourg) and a The region’s top trade partners are mainland China, Hong total of 33 casinos. Kong, Japan, the E.U., Taiwan and the United States. The re- gion’s exports include clothing, textiles, footwear, toys, elec- Spotlight on Macau over Time tronics, machinery and parts; while imports include raw materi- Under British rule and with the deep port of Victoria Har- als and semi-manufactured goods, consumer goods (foodstuffs, bor, Hong Kong quickly gained importance as a major trade beverages, tobacco), capital goods, mineral fuels and oils. center, overshadowing the commercial importance of Portu- Due to Macau’s increasing operational costs, it is no longer guese-ruled Macau. The key exception to Hong Kong’s com- suited for labor-intensive industries, and accordingly, textile and mercial superiority over Macau was during World War II when garment exports are likely to shrink further in years to come. Yet Macau experienced brief economic prosperity as the only neu- the region continues to develop as one of the top gambling and tral port in South China, after the Japanese occupied Canton tourist destinations in the world. Growth areas include finance, and Hong Kong. From 1943 to August 1945, Japan created a insurance, construction, real estate and manufacturing. Macau’s virtual protectorate over Macau, assuming control of its affairs. gambling industry still accounts for an estimated 40 percent of In 1974, the Portuguese government granted independence its GDP. to all overseas colonies and recognized Macau as part of China’s Macau’s currency, the pataca (MOP), is closely tied to the territory. The Chinese government did not take over admin- Hong Kong dollar, which is freely accepted in Macau. Hong istration of the territory until February 8, 1979, when China Kong’s links with Macau’s gambling industry are extensive, espe- acknowledged Macau as a Chinese territory under Portuguese cially through three of the six companies with gaming licenses in administration. Macau: STDM, Galaxy, and Melco. STDM’s gaming subsidiary, On April 13, 1987, “The Joint Declaration on the Question SJM, and Galaxy are listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, as of Macau” was signed between China and Portugal to agree that are two other license holders, Wynn Macau and Las Vegas Sands’ Macau would revert to Chinese rule on December 20, 1999 Macau operations. also under the “One Country, Two Systems” policy. As per the Having surpassed Las Vegas in gambling revenue, the city is Hong Kong SAR, the Chinese government promised that the now looking to broaden its economic base by keeping tourists Macau SAR will enjoy a high degree of autonomy in all matters in town for longer periods of time. While casino earnings con- except foreign and defense affairs for 50 years. stitute nearly all of Macau’s earnings, in Las Vegas they make up only about 40 percent of tourist-related revenue, suggesting Economy that tourists in Macau tend to stay for only a day or two, gam- bling and quickly leaving. The region is hoping to change that As a free port (where goods are received and shipped free of by cashing in on the lucrative convention trade with new ex- customs duties), Macau is best known for its gambling indus- hibition centers and significant growth in the number of hotel try and is the only place in China where gambling is legal. The rooms available. majority of the population speaks Cantonese, but Portuguese The first exhibition to take advantage of the added space remains an official language and English is widely used in trade, was Mega Macau, the first-ever trade exhibition of its kind in tourism and commerce. Since the liberalization of its gaming the SAR. Running between the two phases of the Canton Fair sector in 2002, Macau’s economy has expanded rapidly with in Guangzhou, the event was held in the Venetian Convention significant investment in new hotels, casinos and convention and Exhibition Center (part of the Venetian Macau mega resort facilities by developers from Hong Kong, Australia, and the complex and featuring 100,000 square meters of conference United States. and exhibition space, 70,000 square meters of which is dedicat- The city now represents the world’s largest gaming capital, ed to exhibitions and can accommodate up to 5,000 booths at having surpassed Las Vegas in 2006. Macau’s gambling reve- a time).

278 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

3.7 澳门特别行政区

东方的拉斯维加斯 一直要求澳门完善经济结构，促进多元化发展。

澳门曾经是葡萄牙殖民地，位于珠江三角洲地区入 澳门最大的贸易伙伴是中国大陆、香港、日本、 口处，距离香港只有四十英里。澳门特别行政区面积相 欧盟、台湾地区以及美国。澳门出口的商品有服装、纺 当小—只有香港面积的四十分之一，大约只有五十万居 织品、鞋类、玩具、电子产品、机械制品和零部件，进 民（比卢森堡多不了多少），共有赌场33家。 口商品包括原材料和半成品、消费品（粮食、饮料、烟 草）、资本产品、矿物燃料和石油。

聚焦澳门历史 由于经营成本不断上升，澳门地区不再适合劳动密 因为英国的统治和维多利亚深港的地理优势，香港 集型产业发展，预计纺织品和服装出口在未来将会进一 迅速成为举足轻重的贸易中心，而在葡萄牙统治之下的 步萎缩。但是，澳门地区作为世界博彩和旅游胜地仍然 澳门就相形失色得多，其经济地位远远比不上香港。香 继续蓬勃发展。澳门其他增长的行业包括金融、保险、 港相对于澳门拥有无可比拟的优越商业地位，唯一的例 建筑、房地产和制造业。澳门的博彩业对其生产总值的 外是在第二次世界大战期间，其时日本占领了广东和香 贡献约为40%。 港，澳门是华南地区唯一的一个中立港口，因此澳门有 过短暂的经济繁荣。1943-1945年，日本人在澳门创立 澳门的货币澳门币与港元建立了联系汇率，港元可 伪摄政政权，控制了澳门事务。 以在澳门自由使用。香港与澳门博彩业具有千丝万缕的 联系。澳门六家具有博彩业专营牌照的公司中，其中澳 1974年，葡萄牙政府承认所有海外殖民地独立，承 门旅游娱乐有限公司（STDM）、澳门银河娱乐集团有 认澳门是中国领土的一部分。中国政府并没有马上接手 限公司、新濠博亚博彩股份有限公司与香港联系非常紧 管理澳门。1979年2月8日，葡萄牙政府承认澳门是中国 密。STDM旗下的澳门博彩控股有限公司（SJM）和澳 领土，为目前由葡萄牙管理的地区。 门银河，以及另外两家专营牌照持有者永利澳门有限公 司和澳门金沙娱乐场均在香港证券交易所上市。 1987年4月13日，中葡两国共同签订《关于澳门问 题的联合声明》，同意澳门于1999年12月20日回归中国 在博彩业收入超越拉斯维加斯之后，澳门正在寻找 统治，实行“一国两制”政策。就像香港特别行政区一 方法让旅客在澳门停留更长时间，以扩大经济基础。博 样，中国政府承诺澳门特别行政区享有高度自治，除了 彩业的收入已几近成为澳门的所有收益，而在拉斯维加 外交和国防事务之外，其他所有事务保持五十年不变。 斯，博彩业的收入仅仅占旅游相关产业收入的40%。这 就意味着澳门的游客倾向于在澳门逗留一两日，赌博完 毕便离开。澳门希望能改变这种状况，投入资金建设会 经济情况 展中心，大量增加酒店客房数量，希望利用利润丰富的 贸易会展行业赚钱。 澳门是一个自由港（商品进出口免关税），以博彩 业闻名，也是中国唯一一个博彩合法的地方。虽然澳门 澳门国际消费品展（Mega Macao）是澳门首个充分 大部分人说粤语，但是葡萄牙语仍然是官方语言之一， 利用新建设施的展会。在广交会上下期休会期间，该展 而英语在贸易、旅游和商业上广泛使用。自从2002年澳 会在澳门威尼斯人会展中心举行（该会展中心是澳门威 门特区博彩业开始向外资开放后，大量港资、澳资、美 尼斯人度假村的一部分，占地十万平方米，其中七万平 资陆续进入澳门投资建设酒店、赌场和会展设施，令澳 方米用于举办展览，一次性可容纳五千个展位）。 门经济规模迅速扩大。 澳门《与内地建立更紧密经贸关系的安排》 2006年，在博彩业收入超越拉斯维加斯后，澳门成 （CEPA）于2003年10月17日签署，2004年1月1日开始生 为世界上最大的博彩之都。从2008年到2012年间，澳门 效。该协定允许澳门制造的产品免关税进入中国大陆。 博彩业收入平均年增长率达到29%。2013年10月，澳门 澳门政府经济局发布的官方数据显示，自2004年1月到 博彩业月收入比上年同期增长31.7%，达到364.8亿澳门 2015年9月底，在《与内地建立更紧密经贸关系的安排》 元（46亿美元），是拉斯维加斯地区博彩业收入的六倍 的推动下，出口产品总值达到636195829澳门币。在服务 以上。但是，由于澳门经济过度依赖博彩业，中央政府 贸易方面，澳门政府经济局批准了411个“澳门服务供应

279 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

Macau’s Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement struction of the Hong-Kong-Zhuhai Macau Bridge began at (CEPA) with Mainland China was signed on October 17, 2003 the end of 2009 and is due to be completed by the end of 2016. and came into effect on January 1, 2004. The agreement offers Macau-made products tariff-free access to the mainland. Ac- Ports and waterways cording to official statistics issued by Macau Economic Services, Macau Port includes an outer harbor for passenger vessels the total product export value under CEPA has reached MOP to/from Hong Kong, as well as an inner port for cargo. The 636,195,829 from January 2004 to the end of September 2015 . Ka-Ho Harbor includes a fuel oil terminal and company-ex- With respect to trade in services, Macau Economic Services has clusive piers. There are regular ferries and helicopters providing approved 411 “Macau Service Supplier” certificates, for companies 24-hour service to Hong Kong. Ferries also connect with the primarily engaged in transport and logistics; conventions and exhi- Shekou Port in Shenzhen. bitions; management consulting; construction; distribution; tele- communications; legal, advertising, sales and marketing services for air transport; real estate; audiovisual services, travel agencies, med- ical and dental services, job referral agency services, air transport services as well as trademark agencies, and more.

Spotlight on Hengqin Island Hengqin New Area, located in the Zhuhai Special Econom- ic Zone and part of the Guangdong Free Trade Zone, is only a stone’s throw away from Macau. As part of the One Coun- try, Two Systems policy, the central government is trying to integrate the economies of Hong Kong, Macau and Mainland China. Hengqin is directly across the water from Macau, and as such is a pilot zone for integration. It has already attracted over RMB 226.3 billion (US$36.4 billion) in total investment. With professional zone management, as well as the most preferential investment policies in South China, Hengqin New Area offers appealing incentives to investors. In March 2014, China issued a “Preferential Corporate In- come Tax Catalog” for Hengqin New Area, which identified five industries and 72 business categories, such as ocean-sourced pharmaceuticals and health care, for preferential tax treatment. While China’s standard rate of corporate income tax is 25 per- cent, eligible enterprises listed in the Catalog will be taxed at a reduced 15 percent rate closer to corporate income tax levels in Hong Kong and Macau.

Infrastructure

Air Macau is accessible by air from most major cities in Asia plus a number of domestic destinations. All passengers using the modern Macau International Airport are subject to an airport tax and passenger tax.

Road Macau consists of a peninsula and the two islands of Tai- pa and Coloane. Three bridges, the Nobre de Carvalho Bridge, Friendship Bridge (Ponte da Amizade) and Sai Van Bridge, link the peninsula to Taipa. In addition, the two islands are linked by the six-lane 2.2 kilometer Taipa-Coloane Causeway. Con-

280 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

商”牌照，取得牌照的企业主要从事交通物流、会展展 览、管理咨询、建筑、配送、电信、为航空运输服务的 法律、广告和市场营销服务、房地产、视听设备、旅行 社、医药和牙科、就业推荐机构、航空运输服务以及商 标代理等。

聚焦横琴岛

横琴新区位于珠海经济特区，是广东自贸试验区 的三个片区之一，距离澳门特别行政区只有咫尺之遥。 在“一国两制”政策下，中央政府目前正在致力于推进 内地与港澳经济一体化建设。横琴岛因与澳门仅一水之 隔，成为深度合作的试点区域，目前已经吸引投资总额 达到2263亿人民币（相当于364亿美元）。横琴新区拥 有专业的管理经验，而且享有中国南部地区最优惠的投 资政策，对投资者有极大的吸引力。

2014年3月，中国政府公布横琴新区《企业所得税 优惠目录》，对五大行业共72个类别的产业企业按优惠 税率征收企业所得税，例如海洋制药及医疗保健。在中 国，企业所得税的法定税率是25%，而符合《企业所得 税优惠目录》规定产业项目的企业，则按15%的税率缴 纳企业所得税，接近香港和澳门地区的税率。

基础设施

航空

除了国内航空线路之外，澳门机场有航班飞往大多 数亚洲大城市。澳门国际机场的所有旅客均需要缴纳机 场税和旅客税。

公路

澳门由澳门半岛以及氹仔和路环两个离岛组成，南 面分别由嘉乐庇大桥、友谊大桥（新澳凼大桥）和西湾 大桥与氹仔连接。两个离岛之间则由6车道、全场2.2公 里的氹仔-路环公路相接。2009年年底开始动工的香港- 珠海-澳门大桥预计在2016年底完成通车。

水路及港口

澳门港包括外港和内港，外港为往来香港之定期客 轮上落乘客专用，而内港则用于装载货物。九澳港包括 有油库码头以及公司专业码头。二十四小时开放的渡轮 和直升机定期从香港开往澳门。澳门港也有渡轮驶往深 圳蛇口港。

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Part IV The 2016 Special Report on the State of Business in South China

4.1 Demographics 4.2 Revenue and Profitability 4.3 South China 4.4 Investment Trends 4.5 The Business Environment in South China

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第四部分

2016年华南地区经济情况特别报告

4.1 受访企业统计 4.2 收入和利润 4.3 华南地区 4.4 投资趋势 4.5 华南地区的营商环境

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4.1 Demographics Q: Where is your company’s headquarters or main office located in South China?

Sanya (1%) Zhongshan (1%) While proportion of Guangzhou based companies has in- Other Dongguan (7%) (6%) creased this year to 59.8 percent, the proportion of study par- Foshan (6%) ticipants based in Shenzhen, Foshan and Dongguan are similar

Xiamen (<1%) to last year’s results.

Guangzhou Shenzhen (60%) (20% )

Canada (<1%) Southeast Asia (1%) Australia or New Zealand (<1%) Japan (<1%) Other (4%) 2016 European Union (EU) (9%) Dongguan (6%) Other (8%) United States (46%) Foshan (9%) Chinese Mainland (22%)

Guangzhou Xiamen (2%) (52%) Zhuhai (2%) Hong Kong SAR (16%) Shenzhen (20% ) 2016 Australia or New Zealand (2%) Canada (2%) Southeast Asia (2%) 2015 Japan (2%) Other (6%)

Other Dongguan (7%) European (9%) Union (EU) (8%) United States Foshan (5%) (40%)

Xiamen (2%) Guangzhou Zhuhai (2%) Chinese Mainland (56%) (27%) Hong Shenzhen Kong (19% ) SAR (12%)

2015 Australia or New Zealand (2%) Canada (1%) Southeast Asia (1%) 2014 Japan (1%) Other (4%)

European Union (EU) (9%) Q: Where is your parent or holding com- United States pany located? (42%) Chinese Mainland The share of U.S.-headquartered participants rose to 46.3 (28%)

percent this year after a minor down turn from 42.4 percent Hong Kong SAR in 2014 to 39.5 percent in 2015. Proportion of Chinese Main- (10%) land-based companies continued to drop, from its historical 2014 high 28.4 percent the year before to 22.3 percent this year.

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4.1 受访企业统计 问：贵公司的运营总部位于华南地区 的哪个地方？

三亚 (1%) 中山 (1%)

其他 东莞 (7%) (6%) 今年，将总部设在广州的受访企业比例上升至 佛山 (6%) 59.8%。而将总部设在深圳、佛山、东莞的受访企业基

厦门 (<1%) 本与去年持平。

广州 深圳 (60%) (20% )

加拿大 (<1%) 东南亚 (1%) 澳大利亚或新西兰 (<1%) 日本 (<1%) 其他 (4%) 2016

欧盟(EU) (9%)

其他 东莞 (6%) (8%) 美国 (46%) 中国大陆 佛山 (9%) (22%)

广州 厦门 (2%) (52%) 珠海 (2%) 香港特别行政区 (16%) 深圳 (20% ) 2016 澳大利亚或新西兰 (2%) 加拿大 (2%) 东南亚 (2%) 日本 (2%) 2015 其他 (6%)

其他 东莞 (7%) 欧盟(EU) (9%) (8%) 美国 (40%) 佛山 (5%)

厦门 (2%) 中国大陆 广州 珠海 (2%) (27%) (56%) 香港 深圳 特别行政区 (19% ) (12%)

2015 澳大利亚或新西兰 (2%) 加拿大 (1%) 东南亚 (1%) 日本 (1%) 2014 其他 (4%)

欧盟 (EU) (9%) 问：贵公司母公司或控股公司 美国 的地点位于哪里？ (42%) 中国大陆 (28%)

香港 今年，母公司或控股公司位于美国的受访企业比 特别行政区 例继由2014年的42.4%下降至2015年的39.5%之后重新上 (10%) 2014 升至46.3%。而母公司或控股公司位于中国大陆的受访 企业比例持续下降，从历史最高点28.4%下降至今年的 22.3%。

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Q: What is the form of your company’s legal entity?

Other Other Other (5%) (5%) (6%)

Local Chinese Company Local Chinese Local Chinese (24%) Company Company Wholly-Owned (27%) (25%) Foreign Enterprise Wholly-Owned Wholly-Owned (54%) Foreign Enterprise Foreign Enterprise Rep (46%) (50%) Office Rep Joint (5%) Office Venture Rep Office (5%) (12%) Joint (9%) Joint Venture Venture (14%) (14%) 2016 2015 2014

This year the proportion of Wholly-owned Foreign Enterprises rose almost 8 percent, reaching 53.7 percent, while that of Main- land China-based companies shrank slightly to 24 percent.

Q: Does your company or group have offices in other parts of China? If so,where?

80% Yangtze River Delta No No No 70% (32%) (32%) (29%) Northern China 60% Yes Yes Yes (68%) (68%) (71%) 50% Western China

40% Other 2016 2015 2014 30%

20%

Over the history of this study, the proportion of participat- 10% 0% ing companies with offices in other parts of China has consis- 2016 2015 2014 tently been around 70 percent; this year’s results are no differ- ent. Also similar to prior years, most participants with other offices in China reported a presence in the Yangtze River Delta cent reaching 78.6 percent this year. A slight rise of 2.9 percent with successively smaller population reporting offices in North- was observed among companies with offices in Northern China ern China and Western China. Among the results, proportion while companies with offices in Western China declined by a of companies with offices in Yangtze River Delta rose 8.5 per- similar amount.

50% Q: How long has your company been More than 20 years

engaged in business in China? 40% From 10 to 20 years

Continuing a long-standing trend, older companies are From 6 to 9 years 30% more represented in this study than in any previous iteration. From 2 to 5 years This year just under 84 percent of participants have been in 20% Less than 2 years China for 6 or more years. Interestingly, the percentage of par- ticipants reporting having been doing business in China for 10 10% to 20 years rose over 12 percent, while the noticeable difference has been made up by minor decline in every other options. 0% 2016 2015 2014

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问：贵公司的企业类型是以下哪一种？

其他 其他 其他 (5%) (5%) (6%)

中资企业 中资企业 中资企业 外商独资企业 (24%) (27%) (25%) (54%) 外商独资企业 外商独资企业 (46%) (50%) 外资企业 办事处 外资企业 (5%) 外资企业 办事处 办事处 (5%) 中外合资企业 中外合资企业 (12%) (9%) 中外合资企业 (14%) (14%) 2016 2015 2014

调查结果显示今年外商独资企业的比例上升近8%，达到53.7%。而中资企业的比例则略微下降至24%。

问：贵公司或集团在中国其它地区是否设有办事处？如果是，位于哪里？

80% 长江三角洲地区 否 否 否 70% (32%) (32%) (29%) 中国北部地区 60% 是 是 是 (68%) (68%) (71%) 50% 中国西部地区

40% 其他 2016 2015 2014 30%

20%

10%

历年调查结果显示，在华南以外地区设有办事处的 0% 受访企业比例约为70%，而今年的调查结果亦无异。同 2016 2015 2014 时，与往年相似，在华南以外地区设有办事处的受访企 业多数选择将办事处设在长江三角洲地区，继而是中国 选择在中国北部地区设立办事处的企业比例亦轻微上升 北部地区及西部地区。调查结果显示，选择将办事处设 2.9%，而选择在中国西部设立办事处的企业比例则出现 在长江三角洲的受访企业比例上升8.5%，达到78.6%。 了相应比例的下降。

问：贵公司来华开展业务已有多少年？

50% 20年以上 延续往年的趋势，来华经营更长时间的企业在受访 10-20年 企业中所占比例更大。今年调查结果显示，将近84%的 40% 受访企业来华开展业务6年及以上。有趣的是，今年来 6-9年 30% 华经营10-20年的受访企业比例比去年上升了近12%，而 2-5年 选择其他选项的受访企业比例均出现轻微下降。 20% 少于2年

10%

0% 2016 2015 2014

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Q: Which category best describes the primary focus of your busi- ness activities in China? 75.6% Providing goods or services to the Chinese market 24.4% Manufacturing primarily for export

The proportion of participating companies reporting that Participants involved in the manufacturing or trade of goods their primary business focus was providing goods or services were this year most likely to be in the “Other” and “Electronic to the Chinese market this year, which was 75.6 percent, was equipment, household appliances and components”. “Textile, similar to last year. apparel, accessories and leather” and “Machinery (not electron- Early iterations of this study had found a small majority of ic)”, both with a percentage of 9.6 percent surpassed “Chemi- companies doing manufacturing or trading, whereas in recent cals” this year to rank top on the list. years that majority had belonged to the group of companies Participants in service industries, meanwhile, were most offering services to the market. This year’s results find the pro- likely to be in the “Professional services”, “Business services” and portion of participants involved in service industries rose over “Tourism and travel-related services” categories. 5 percent while the difference was made up by declined in the share of participants involved in the trade of goods.

Q: How many people does your company currently employ in China?

30% More than 5,000 This year’s results saw a 4.3 percent in- crease in participants employing more than 25% Between 1,000 and 5,000 5,000 employees being offset by decline in the other options except the “Between 500 20% Between 500 and 1,000 and 1,000 employee”.

15% Between 250 and 500

10% Between 50 and 250

Less than 50 5%

0% 2016 2015 2014

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问：以下哪种描述最符合贵公司在华南地区的主要业务范围？ 75.6% 向中国市场提供产品或服务 24.4% 以出口为主的制造业

今年，选择将“向中国市场提供产品或服务”作为 件”，选择“纺织品、服装、配件和皮革”以及“机械 企业在华南地区的主要业务范围的受访企业比例与去年 （非电子）”的受访企业比例均为9.6%，排名超过了“ 相似，为75.6%。 化学品”。

在历年的调查中，更大比例的企业为从事产品制造 而在选择“为市场提供服务”的受访企业中，多数 或贸易，而近年来我们则看到更多企业主要为市场提供 企业则选择了“专业服务”、“商业服务”以及“旅游 服务。今年调查结果显示，为市场提供服务的受访企业 及相关服务”。 比例较去年上升了5%。

在选择“从事产品制造或贸易”的受访企业中， 多数企业选择了“其他”、“电子设备、家用电器和配

问：贵公司在中国的员工数量为多少？

30% 今年调查结果显示，选择“多于 多于5000人 5000人”的受访企业比例上升了4.3%， 25% 而选择“500-1000人”以外选项的受访 1000-5000人 企业比例则出现了相应的下降。

20% 500-1000人

15% 250-500人

10% 50-250人

少于50人 5%

0% 2016 2015 2014

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Q: Out of your total number of employees, how many are expatriates and/or foreign pass- port holders? 60% Greater than 50 As in prior years, approximately half of participants report employing fewer than 50% Between 20 and 50 5 foreign passport holders and around 33 percent this year reported either 5 to 10 40% Between 11 and 20 or more than 50 expatriates. Slightly fewer employing between 11 and 20 expatriates, 30% Between 5 and 10 while the percentage of participants this year reported employing between 21 and 20% Less than 5 50 expatriates dropped back to around 5 percent from more than 10 percent last year. 10%

0% 2016 2015 2014

Q: Has your company taken advantage of the current labor market by hiring new employees?

No No No (18%) (16%) (19%)

Yes Yes Yes (82%) (84%) (81%)

2016 2015 2014

60% More than 5,000 Continuing a gradual rise from a histor- 50% ic low of 69.5 percent in 2012, the number Between 1,000 and 5,000 of participants this year who reported hav- ing “taken advantage of the current labor 40% Between 500 and 1,000 market by hiring new employees” was 81.6 percent, just a slight decline compared with 30% Between 250 and 500 last year. Out of companies which reported hir- 20% Between 50 and 250 ing new employees over the course of 2015, Less than 50 we find a somewhat similar distribution 10% to prior years’ in terms of the number of new hires, with the exception of a notable 0% increase in the proportion of participants 2016 2015 2014 reporting hiring more than 5,000 new em- ployees, which almost tripled that of last year’s. over the course of 2015 AmCham South China companies hired Based on this year’s distribution of numbers hired and the 993,506 new employees in China. chamber’s current size of 2,300 members, we can estimate that

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问：全体员工中，有多少是外籍人士或外国护照持有者？

60% 与往年相似，雇佣少于5名外籍人士的受 多于50人 访企业比例约为50%。今年，雇佣5-10名外籍 50% 人士以及超过50名外籍人士的受访企业比例约 20-50人 为33%。雇佣11-20名外籍人士的受访企业比例

40% 11-20人 轻微下降，而雇佣21-50名外籍人士的受访企 业则从去年的超过10%回落至今年的5%。 30% 5-10人

20% 少于5人

10%

0% 2016 2015 2014

问：贵公司是否已利用现有劳动力市场优势雇佣新员工？

没有 没有 没有 (18%) (16%) (19%)

有 有 有 (82%) (84%) (81%)

2016 2015 2014

60% 多于5000人

50% 1000-5000人 自2012年出现历史低点69.5%以

来，今年选择“有利用现有劳动力 40% 500-1000人 市场优势雇佣新员工”的受访企业 比例为81.6%，较去年略微下降。 30% 250-500人

在选择2015年期间有雇佣新 20% 50-250人 员工的受访企业中，我们看到新 少于50人 雇佣员工数量在各区间分布基本与 10% 历年一致。然而今年选择“雇佣多 于5000人”的受访企业比例显著上 0% 升，约为去年数据的三倍。 2016 2015 2014

根据今年的新雇佣员工情况分 华南美国商会会员企业2015年度在中国地区的新雇员数量 布以及华南美国商会现有会员数约为2300推算，我们估计 达到99.4万。

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4.2 Revenue and Profitability

Q: What is your company/group’s approximate annual worldwide revenue?

40% Greater than $500 million 35% Between $101 million and $500 million 30%

Between $11 million and $100 million 25%

20% Between $1 million and $10 million

15% Less than $1 million

10%

5%

0% 2016 2015 2014

As in prior years, participants tended to have large world- Another result similar to previous years was around two- wide annual revenues. The results indicated that approximately thirds of participant report worldwide revenues of greater than 40 percent of participants having more than $500 million in $11 million–this year 69.5 percent of the total. revenue. It is understandable as larger companies are more likely to expand beyond their home market. Q: What is your company/group’s approximate annual China revenue?

30% N/A

25% Greater than $250 million

20% Between $50 million and $250 million

15% Between $11 million and $50 million

10% Between $1 million and $10 million

Less than $1 million 5%

0% 2016 2015 2014

This year’s results are somewhat similar to last year’s. We saw While interestingly, we observed an almost 4 percent decline in a slight rise in the category greater than $250 million, between the category of between $50 million and $250 million. $1 million and $10 million, as well as less than $1 million.

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4.2 收入和利润

问：贵公司/集团在全球范围的年收入大约是多少？

40% 超过5亿美元 35% 1.01亿-5亿美元 30%

1100万-1亿美元 25%

20% 100万-1000万美元

15% 少于100万美元

10%

5%

0% 2016 2015 2014

与往年调查结果类似，今年的受访企业在全球范围 同样与往年结果相似，全球范围年收入超过1100万 的年收入均比较高。今年近40%的受访企业表示集团的全 美元的受访企业约占总体的三分之二，今年这一比例达 球范围年收入超过5亿美元，这不难理解，因为更大的企 到69.5%。 业往往更有可能向本土以外的其他市场扩张。

问：贵公司在中国的年收入大约为多少？

30% 不适用(比如办事处)

25% 超过2.5亿美元

20% 5000万-2.5亿美元

15% 1100万-5000万美元

10% 100万-1000万美元

少于100万美元 5%

0% 2016 2015 2014

今年的调查结果基本与去年一致。选择在中国的年 有趣的是，选择“5000万-2.5亿美元”的受访企业比例下 收入为“超过2.5亿美元”、“100万-1000万美元”以 降了4%。 及“少于100万美元”的受访企业比例均略微上升。然而

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Q: When does your company expect to be profitable in China?

100% Other

80% In between 3 to 5 years

Within 2 years 60%

This year

40% Already pro table

20%

Profitable and significantly exceeding budget expectations (7%)

0% 2016 2015 2014 Profitable but not meeting Pro table budget and meeting expectations budget (43%) expectations Q: If your company is already profitable, (50%) to what extent?

2016 This year almost 93 percent of participating companies re- Profitable and significantly exceeding ported that they were already profitable or would be within the budget expectations (4%) next two years. Continuing a trend observed since 2012, however, we find fewer and fewer companies are profitable and meeting budget Profitable but expectations. Since the historic high for this measure in 2012, Pro table not meeting and meeting budget this year we have seen the proportion of participants in this cat- expectations budget (47%) egory fall to 50 percent. expectations Interestingly, the percentage of the participating companies (49%) reporting profitable and significantly exceeding budget expecta- tions this year almost doubled, rose to 7.4 percent. 2015

Profitable and significantly exceeding budget expectations (6%)

Profitable but not meeting Pro table budget and meeting expectations budget (43%) expectations (51%)

2014

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问：贵公司在中国预期什么时候实现盈利？

100% 其他

80% 未来3-5年

未来2年内 60%

今年

40% 已经实现盈利

20% 实现盈利且大大超出预期 (7%)

0% 2016 2015 2014 实现盈利且 实现盈利但 达到预期 未达预期 问：如果贵公司已经实现盈利， (50%) (43%) 则盈利状况如何？

2016 今年有将近93%的受访企业表示他们已经实现盈 利或将在未来两年内实现盈利。 实现盈利且大大超出预期 (4%)

然而受访企业的盈利实现情况却未如理想，这 一趋势始于2012年。自2012年的历史高点，今年选 择”实现盈利并且达到预期“或”实现盈利并超出 实现盈利且 实现盈利但 预期“的受访企业比例跌至50%。 达到预期 未达预期 (49%) (47%) 有趣的是，选择“实现盈利并且大大超出预期” 的受访企业比例几乎是去年的两倍，上升至7.4%。

2015

实现盈利且大大超出预期 (6%)

实现盈利但 实现盈利且 未达预期 达到预期 (43%) (51%)

2014

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4.3 South China

Q: What are your company’s goals in South China?

1. Produce goods or services in South China for the China market Continuing the long-established trend, “Produce goods or 2. Produce goods or services in South China for markets other than services in South China for the China market” remains partic- the U.S. and China ipant’s top goal in the region; the two other production-ori- 3. Produce goods or services in South China for the U.S. market ented results–“Produce goods or services in South China for 4. Establish or expand a regional base markets other than the U.S. and China” and “Produce goods 5. Export from China to countries other than the U.S. or services in South China for the U.S. market”–also remain in 6. Export from China to the U.S. the top five priorities for participating companies. This year’s results, in fact, are identical to those recorded last year. The only difference is that “Export from China to countries other than the U.S.” and “Export from China to the U.S.” tied for fifth with exactly same 11.6 percent.

Q: What are the major reasons for your company to set up operations in South China in- stead of other China locations?

“Opportunities in South China’s domestic market” remains 1. Opportunities in South China’s domestic market a top consideration for companies setting up operations in 2. Availability of highly qualified managers and specialists South China. While this year, “Availability of highly qualified 3. Better infrastructure than other places in South China managers and specialists” rose to the second place, taken the 4. Proximity to Hong Kong place of “Proximity to Hong Kong”, which ranked fourth this 5. Greater openness than other places in China year. “Better infrastructure than other places in South China” ranked the same this year while “Greater openness than other places in China” dropped to the fifth place.

Q: How do you expect your company’s operations to change in the following areas over the coming 3 years?

Response to this question are similar to those recorded in 1. Services provided in China previous years, although “China market share” rose to rank 2. China market share second, after “Services provided in China”. “Profits” exchanged 3. Competition from P.R.C. firms place with “Overall Chinese business activities” to rank fourth 4. Profits this year. Taken as a whole, these results indicates that in 2016 5. Overall China business activities multinational companies expect more expansion, and bigger margin in the domestic Chinese market.

296 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

4.3 华南地区

问：贵公司在华南地区的发展目标是什么？

1. 在华南地区向中国市场生产产品或提 与往年呈现的趋势一致，“在华南地区向中国市场 供服务 生产产品或提供服务”依然是受访企业在华南地区发展的 主要目标。同受访企业选择的五大主要目标还包括另外两 2. 在华南地区向中国和美国以外的市场 个以提供产品和服务为导向的选项，分别是“在华南地区 生产产品或提供服务 向中国和美国以外的市场生产产品或提供服务”、“在华 南地区向美国市场生产产品或提供服务”。事实上，今年 3. 在华南地区向美国市场生产产品或提 的调查结果与往年相似。不同的是“从中国向美国以外的 供服务 国家出口”以及“从中国向美国出口”以11.6%这一比例 并列第五位。 4. 建立或扩大区域基地 5. 从中国向美国以外的国家出口 6. 从中国向美国出口

问：贵公司选择在华南地区而非中国其他地 方设立运营机构的主要原因是？

1. 华南地区国内市场的机遇 “华南地区国内市场的市场机遇”依然是受访企业 2. 拥有高素质管理和专业人才 考虑在华南地区开展业务的首要原因，而今年“拥有高 素质管理和专业人才”取代“临近香港”，成为受访企 3. 华南地区更好的基础设施 业选择的第二大原因，后者今年排名第四。“华南地区 4. 临近香港 更好的基础设施”与往年排名相同,而“比中国其他地 方更加开放”则下降至第五位。 5. 比中国其他地方更加开放

问：贵公司预计将会在未来三年改变的经济领域是？

1. 中国提供的服务 这一问题的回应基本与往年一致。不同的是“在 2. 在中国的市场份额 中国的市场份额”上升至第二位，紧随“中国提供的服 务”之后。而“利润”超过了“全中国的经营活动”名 3. 来自中国企业的竞争 列第四。这表明企业预期在中国本土市场实现更强劲的 4. 利润 发展和获取更高的利润。 5. 全中国的经营活动

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4.4 Investment Trends

Q: For 2015, what was your company’s realized reinvestment volume in China?

35% Greater than $250 million 30% Between $50 million and $250 million 25% Between $10 million and $50 million 20% Between $1 million and $10 million 15% Less than $1 million 10% No investments made 5%

0% 2016 2015 2014

Over 10.8 percent this year’s participants reported having to 23.9 percent from last year’s 34.5 percent, which is an over 10 reinvested greater than $250 million, which is a 4.4 percent percent decline. Moreover, there is an almost 5 percent increase rise compared with last year. Meanwhile, we observed a similar in the category of companies having made no reinvestments at all. percentage rise in the category of having reinvested between $1 million to $10 million. However, the percentage of participat- ing companies having reinvested less than $1 million dropped

Q: For 2016, what is your company’s budgeted reinvestment in China?

35% N/A 30% Greater than $250 million 25% Between $50 million and $250 million 20% Between $10 million and $50 million 15% Between $1 million and $10 million 10% Less than $1 million 5%

0% 2016 2015 2014

The results of the budgeted reinvestments in China for er companies plan small reinvestments, more companies plan 2016 of the participating companies are somewhat similar to extremely large reinvestments while more companies plan no the results of realized reinvestments in China for 2015. Few- reinvestments at all.

298 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

4.4 投资趋势

问：2015年，贵公司在中国的实际再投资总额是多少？

35% 多于2.5亿美元 30% 5000万-2.5亿美元 25% 1000万-5000万美元 20% 100万-1000万美元 15% 少于100万美元 10% 没有投资 5%

0% 2016 2015 2014

今年超过10.8%的受访企业表示再投资总额“多于2.5亿 受访企业比例下跌近10%，从去年的34.5%跌至23.9%。而表 美元”，较去年上升了4.4%。同时，我们观察到了再投资总 示“没有投资”的企业比例则上升了5%。 额为“100万-1000万美元”的受访企业比例出现了相似比例 的上升。然而，今年企业再投资总额“少于100万美元”的

问：2016年，贵公司在中国的预算再投资额是多少？

35% 不适用 30% 多于2.5亿美元 25% 5000万-2.5亿美元 20% 1000万-5000万美元 15% 100万-1000万美元 10% 少于100万美元 5%

0% 2016 2015 2014

2016年的再投资预算趋势与2015年实际再投 计划超大额再投资的企业以及无计划再投资的企业 资的状况类似，计划小额再投资的企业有所减少， 比例均有所增加。

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2015 Budgeted vs. Actualized Reinvestment

Comparing reinvestment budgets 35% 2015 Budgeted for 2015 reported last year against 2015 Actual realized reinvestment volumes for the 30% same period reported this year, we found that more companies reinvested in every level than had originally bud- 25% geted to do so except for in the “less than $1 million” category, which saw a 20% decline from 34.6 percent having bud- geted to do so against only 26.9 per- cent actually securing reinvestments 15% with that value. However, we also see almost 4 percent of the participating 10% companies which didn’t plan on rein- vesting actually did so.

5%

N/A

Less than $1 million

Greater than $250 million

Between $1 million and $10 million Between $10 million and $50 million Between $50 million and $250 million

Normalized reinvestment figures Estimated reinvestment volumes

(Response distribution applied to 100 companies by per- (Normalized, scaled by a factor representing chamber mem- centage share) bership)

Projected 2016: $3,296,485,000 (+8.79%) Estimated 2016: $13,087,053,000 (+8.79%) Projected 2015: $3,030,100,000 (-9.3%) Estimated 2015: $12,029,504,000 (-9.3%) Projected 2014: $3,343,500,000 (+30.10%) Estimated 2014: $13,273,703,000 (+30.10%) Projected 2013: $2,569,950,000 (+1.90%) Estimated 2013: $10,202,708,000 (+1.90%) Projected 2012: $2,521,958,000 Estimated 2012: $10,012,180,000

Projected 2016-18: $2,729,495,000 (-8.65%) Estimated 2016-18: $12,646,945,000 (-8.65%) Projected 2015-17: $2,988,100,000 (-16.9%) Estimated 2015-17: $13,844,682,000 (-16.9%) Projected 2014-16: $3,599,200,000 (+1.30%) Estimated 2014-16: $16,676,076,000 (+1.30%) Projected 2013-15: $3,552,850,000 (+40.88%) Estimated 2013-15: $16,461,324,000 (+40.88%) Projected 2012-14: $2,943,304,000 Estimated 2012-14: $11,684,920,000

To accommodate fluctuating sample sizes, for the past six Whereas in 2014, we saw an over 9 percent decline in 1-year years we have reported reinvestment figures normalized to 100 budgets and an almost 17 percent in 3-year reinvestment bud- companies as a primary year-on-year comparison. This figure is gets, this year, we see an 8.79 percent increase in 1-year reinvest- calculated as the product of the mean of each category range ment budgets and a decline of similar percentage in 3-year bud- and the percentage of total participants indicating that catego- gets, suggesting confidence in 2016 but a substantial amount of ry, except in the case of the largest ($250 million or more) cate- uncertainty in the medium term. gory, for which the minimum value is used.

300 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

2015年度预算再投资与实际再投资比较

对比上次报告中的2015年预 35% 2015 年预算投资 算投资与此次报告所收集的同期 2015 年实际投资 实际投资量，我们观察到在各区 间实际进行了再投资的企业比例 30% 均高于计划再投资的企业比例， 除了“少于100万美元”这一区 25% 间。调查结果显示原计划再投 资“少于100万美元”的企业比例 为34.6%，而实际进行了该数额再 20% 投资的企业比例则只有26.9%。但 与此同时，有近4%的受访企业原 15% 本无计划再投资却实际进行了再 投资。

10%

5%

不适用

2.5亿美元以上 少于100万美元

100万美元-1000万美元 5000万美元-2.5亿美元 1000万美元-5000万美元

标准化投资数据 预估投资额

（以100家企业所占比例为标准） （标准化预估，以会员企业为系数）

2016未来一年： $3,296,485,000 (+8.79%) 2016未来一年：$13,087,053,000 (+8.79%) 2015未来一年： $3,030,100,000 (-9.3%) 2015未来一年：$12,029,504,000 (-9.3%) 2014未来一年： $3,343,500,000 (+30.10%) 2014未来一年：$13,273,703,000 (+30.10%) 2013未来一年： $2,569,950,000 (+1.90%) 2013未来一年：$10,202,708,000 (+1.90%) 2012未来一年： $2,521,958,000 2012未来一年：$ 10,012,180,000

2016-18未来三年：$2,729,495,000 (-8.65%) 2016-18未来三年：$12,646,945,000 (-8.65%) 2015-17未来三年：$2,988,100,000 (-16.9%) 2015-17未来三年：$13,844,682,000 (-16.9%) 2014-16未来三年：$3,599,200,000 (+1.30%) 2014-16未来三年：$16,676,076,000 (+1.30%) 2013-15未来三年：$3,552,850,000 (+40.88%) 2013-15未来三年：$16,461,324,000 (+40.88%) 2012-14未来三年: $2,943,304,000 2012-14未来三年：$ 11,684,920,000

为了降低受访企业数量变动对调查结果的影响，我 在2014年的调查中，我们观察到了企业未来一年再 们近六年来采用以每100家企业为基数，对其进行同期的 投资预算下降了超过了9%，而未来三年再投资预算则下降 投资预算对比。数据的计算方法是每一个类别的中间值乘 了近17%。今年，企业未来一年再投资额上升了8.79%，而 以该类别在所有受访企业中所占的比例，而投资额的最高 未来三年再投资则出现了相似比例的下降，这表明受访企 项（达到或超过2.5亿美元）则取最小值2.5亿美元。 业对2016年再投资有信心但对中期发展仍存在不确定性。

301 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

Q: For the coming 3 years, what is your company’s expected reinvestment volume in China?

40% Not applicable 35% Greater than $250 million 30%

25% Between $50 million and $250 million

20% Between $10 million and $50 million

15% Between $1 million and $10 million

10% Less than $1 million 5%

0% 2016 2015 2014

Similar to results in 2015 and earlier years, this year we find pants this year were slightly less likely to have planned reinvest- that the distribution of 3-year reinvestment budgets mainly ments of “Less than $1 million”, “Between $1 million and $10 skewed toward smaller amounts. million”, “Between $10 million and $50 million”, and “Between This year, more than 35.8 percent of the participants report- $50 million to $250 million”, while being somewhat more likely ed that 3-year reinvestment budget amounts were “Not appli- to have planned reinvestments of “Greater than $250 million” cable”, a 15 percent increase compared with last year, which is over the 3-year time frame. made up by modest declines in other categories respectively, except for the “Greater than $250 million”, indicating partici-

Q: For future reinvestments, in which areas of China will you likely expand in the next three years? 60% Yangtze River Delta

50% Northern China

Western China (Sichuan) 40%

Western China (other locations) 30% South China (Guangdong)

20% South China (Guangxi)

10% South China (other locations)

Other 0% 2016 2015 2014

We see an almost 14 percent rise in the proportion of com- Yangtze River Delta, while modest declines in the proportion panies planning investments in “South China (Guangdong)”, of companies planning investments elsewhere. and a slight increase in the proportion of companies choosing

302 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

问：未来三年贵公司在中国的预算再投资额是多少？

40% 不适用 35% 多于2.5亿美元 30%

25% 5000万-2.5亿美元

20% 1000万-5000万美元

15% 100万-1000万美元

10% 少于100万美元 5%

0% 2016 2015 2014

与去年及往年趋势类似，今年的企业未来三年预算再 现了轻微下降，除了“多于2.5亿美元”这一区间。结果 投资额分布更集中于小额区间。 表明，今年更少受访企业选择预算再投资额为“少于100 万美元”、“100万-1000万美元”、“1000万-5000万美 今年的调查结果显示，有超过35.8%的受访企业在回 元”以及“5000万-2.5亿美元”，而更多企业选择三年预 答“企业三年预算投资额”这一问题上选择“不适用”， 算再投资额为“多于2.5亿美元”。 较去年上升了15%。而选择其他区间的企业比例则分别出

问：未来三年，贵公司在中国可能投资的区域是？

60% 长江三角洲地区

50% 中国北部地区

中国西部地区(四川) 40%

中国西部地区(其他地点) 30% 华南地区(广东)

20% 华南地区(广西)

10% 华南地区(其他地点)

其他 0% 2016 2015 2014

今年的调查结果显示，选择华南地区（广东）作为 同时，选择长江三角洲地区的受访企业也有所增加，而 未来三年可能投资的区域的受访企业比例上升近14%。 其他地区的受关注程度则有所下降。

303 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

Q: Did your company’s 1-year budgeted reinvestment volume change over the course of the year?

50% 40% Greater than $250 million 45% 35% 40% Between $50 million and $250 million 30% 35% Between $10 million and $50 million 25% 30%

25% 20% Between $1 million and $10 million

20% 15% Less than $1 million 15% 10% 10% No change

5% 5%

0% 0% Decrease < No change > Increase Decrease < No change > Increase 2016 2015

Continuing a downward trend in the proportion of com- million and $50 million” and “Between $50 million and $250 panies increasing their 1-year reinvestment budgets over the million”. Instead, we observed notable growth in the proportion course of the year, only 44.9 percent of this year’s participants of participants having increased 1-year reinvestment budgets by reported doing so, down from 60 percent in 2012. Meanwhile “Greater than $250 million”. we see a modest increase from last year in the proportion of While of those companies who decreased their budgets over study participants who decreased their 1-year reinvestment the cross of 2015, 86.7 percent saw decreases of $10 million or budgets. less, while 6.7 percent decreased their budgets by “Between $50 Of the companies who increased their budgets, compara- million and $250 million”. tively fewer companies increased them by “Less than $1 mil- lion”, “Between $1 million and $10 million”, “Between $10

Q: Did your company’s 3-year budgeted reinvestment volume change over the course of the year?

40% 35% Greater than $250 million

35% 30% Between $50 million and $250 million 30% 25% Between $10 million and $50 million 25% 20% 20% Between $1 million and $10 million 15% 15% Less than $1 million 10% 10% No change 5% 5%

0% 0% Decrease < No change > Increase Decrease < No change > Increase 2016 2015

The percentage of participating companies who adjusted tween $ 1 million and $10 million”. Meanwhile the percentage their 3-year reinvestment budgets roughly tracks the 1-year bud- of participating companies reported increases of “Greater than get changes, albeit with a slightly bigger proportion reporting no $250 million” is over 4 times that of last year’s. changes for the 3-year term and a slightly smaller percentage re- Of those participants who reported decreases in 3-year re- porting having decreased their 3-year budget. investment budgets, 91.6 percent reported changes of less than Of the 50.4 percent who reported increases to their budgets, $10 million and 8.3 percent reported decrease of “Between $10 78 percent indicated increases of “Less than $1 million” or “Be- million to $50 million”.

304 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

问：贵公司年度预算再投资额在过去一年中是否变化？

50% 40% 多于2.5亿美元 45% 35% 40% 5000万-2.5亿美元 30% 35% 1000万-5000万美元 25% 30%

25% 20% 100万-1000万美元

20% 15% 少于100万美元 15% 10% 10% 没有变化

5% 5%

0% 0% 缩减 < 没有变化 > 增加 缩减 < 没有变化 > 增加 2016 2015

延续了前几年下降的趋势，表示未来一年再投资预 元”、“1000万-5000万美元”以及“5000万-2.5亿美 算有所增加的企业比例从2012年的60%跌至今年的44.9%。 元”的企业比例均有所下降，而选择增幅为“多于2.5 而今年表示未来一年再投资预算有所减少的企业比例则轻 亿美元”的企业比例则显著上升。 微上升。 而在选择再投资预算有所减少的受访企业中，有 在选择再投资预算有所增加的企业中，选择再投 86.7%表示降幅为“少于1000万美元”，6.7%则选择 资预算增幅为“少于100万美元”、“100万-1000万美 了“5000万-2.5亿美元”。

问：贵公司未来三年预算再投资额在过去一年中是否有变化？

40% 35% 多于2.5亿美元

35% 30% 5000万-2.5亿美元 30% 25% 1000万-5000万美元 25% 20% 20% 100万-1000万美元 15% 15% 少于100万美元 10% 10% 没有变化 5% 5%

0% 0% 缩减 < 没有变化 > 增加 缩减 < 没有变化 > 增加 2016 2015 企业未来三年再投资预算额在过去一年中的变化情 万-1000万美元”。而表示增幅为“多于2.5亿美元”的 况与未来一年再投资预算额的变化情况基本一致。不同 受访企业比例则为去年的四倍多。 的是表示再投资预算额没有变化的受访企业比例稍大， 而表示再投资预算额有所减少的企业则比例稍小。 而在表示未来三年再投资预算额有所减少的受访企 业中，有91.6%表示降幅为“少于100万美元”，8.3%则 在表示再投资预算额有所增加的50.4%受访企业 选择了“1000万-5000万美元”。 中，78%的企业表示增幅为“少于100万美元”或“100

305 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

4.5 The Business Environment in South China

50% Outstanding Q: How would you rate the overall busi- ness environment in South China? 40% Very good This year, as in years past, most participants rated the over- Good/acceptable 30% all business environment as “Good/acceptable”, “Very good” or Needs improvement “Outstanding”. This year that grouping accounts for 83 percent 20% of the participants while a new historical high 17 percent report Poor feeling that the overall business environment as either “Needs 10% improvement” or “Poor”.

0% 2016 2015 2014

Q: Compared to 12 months ago, in your

50% opinion the overall business environ- Improved greatly ment in South China has… 40% Improved

Remained about the same Responses to the question “Compared to 12 months ago, in 30% your opinion the overall business environment in South China Decreased

20% has…” show that majority of the participants feel that the busi- Decreased greatly ness environment either remained about the same or improved

10% somewhat. 6.6 percent felt that the business environment had improved greatly while 23.7 percent felt that it had declined ei-

0% ther somewhat or greatly. 2016 2015 2014

Q: To what extent do you believe China’s economic reforms in the past year (2015) 50% have positively affected your business in To a very great extent South China (including new legislation, 40% To a great extent opening of industries, etc)? To some extent 30%

Not at all This year, almost half of the participating companies report- 20% Don’t know/no basis to judge ed that China’s economic reforms in the past year (2015) to some extent positively affected their operations in South China, 10% and over 30 percent of the participants feel that the China’s eco-

0% nomic reforms positively influenced their operation to a great 2016 2015 2014 extent or a very great extent. The percentage of participants that reported China’s economic reforms didn’t bring any pos- itive effect to their operation at all dropped to 8.9 percent this year, signaling improved sentiment toward China’s economic reforms.

306 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

4.5 华南地区的营商环境

50% 优异 问：您如何评价华南地区的整体 40% 很好 营商环境？

好/可接受 30% 与往年相似，今年大多数受访企业评价华南地区的

有待提高 整体营商环境为“好/可接受”、“很好”、或者“优

20% 异”，今年该比例为83%。然而亦有近17%的受访企业表 差 示营商环境“有待提高”或“差”，这是历史新高。

10%

0% 2016 2015 2014 问：比起12个月前，您认为华南

50% 地区的整体营商环境有……变 很大程度提高 化? 40% 一定程度提高 大多数受访企业在“比起12个月前，您认为华南

保持原有水平 地区的整体营商环境有……变化?”这一问题上大部 30% 分受访企业选择了“保持原有水平”或“一定程度提 一定程度下降 高”。6.6%的受访企业选择“很大程度提高”。然而有 20% 很大程度下降 23.7%的受访企业选择“一定程度下降”或“很大程度 下降”。 10%

0% 2016 2015 2014 问：中国在过去一年（2015年） 的经济改革对贵公司在华南地区 的经营有何种程度的积极影响 50% 很大程度 （改革内容包括新的法律法规、

40% 较大程度 行业开放等）？

一定程度 30% 今年，将近半数的受访企业认为中国在过去一年 没有影响 （2015年）的经济改革为企业在华南地区的运营带来了一 20% 定程度的积极影响。而超过30%的受访企业则认为中国的 未知/无判断基础 经济改革较大程度或很大程度上积极影响了其在华南地区 10% 的运营。而选择中国的经济改革对企业在华南地区的运营 没有积极影响的受访企业比例则下降至8.9%，这反映了受 0% 2016 2015 2014 访企业对中国的经济改革评价有所提高。

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Q: How much interest would your company have in opening a new office or facility within a Free Trade Zone located in South China? If you plan on opening an office in a Free Trade Zone in South China, which of the following are you likely to choose? China (Guangdong) Pilot Free Trade Zone Nan Sha Area of Guangzhou 30% 80% Uncertain China (Guangdong) Pilot Free Trade Zone 70% Qianhai Area of Shenzhen 25% Great interest China (Guangdong) Pilot Free Trade Zone 60% Hengqin New Area of Zhuhai 20% A little interest China (Fujian) Pilot Free Trade Zone 50% Fuzhou Area

15% Ambivalent 40% China (Fujian) Pilot Free Trade Zone Xiamen Area

10% Not much interest 30% China (Fujian) Pilot Free Trade Zone Pingtan Area 20% No interest whatsoever 5% 10%

0% 0% 2016 2015 2014

Response to a question measuring interest in Free Trade operation into a Free Trade Zone in South China, vast majority Zone in South China show 38 percent of participants interest- of them are more likely to choose Free Trade Zones in Guang- ed in expanding into such a zone, with 25 percent reporting not dong. Among the Free Trade Zones in Guangdong, the China much or no interest whatsoever and 36.7 percent either ambiv- (Guangdong) Pilot Free Trade Zone Nansha Area of Guang- alent or uncertain. zhou ranks top one on the list with a 67 percent voting from the Of those participating companies interested in expanding participating companies.

Q: How do you expect the “One Belt – One Road” Initiative by the Chinese government to affect your company’s revenues? If you expect an increase in your China revenues due to the “One Belt – One Road” Initiative, from what area do you think the increase will come from?

40% United States Not Applicable 50% 35% Other North American countries Uncertain 30% 40% South America 25% Increase greatly Europe 30% 20% Increase somewhat Asia Paci c 15% Remain about the same 20% Other Asian countries 10% Decrease somewhat 10% 5% Africa Decrease greatly 0% Other 0%

When asked about influences of the “One Belt-One Road” Of those participating companies expecting revenue increas- Initiative by the Chinese government on the company revenues, es benefited from the “One Belt-One Road” Initiative, over half 37.5 percent of the participating companies expected their rev- of them expected the increase to come from “Asia Pacific” or enues to either increase somewhat or greatly. 27 percent of the “Other Asian Countries”. 30.5 percent of the participating com- participants feel that their revenue will remain about the same, panies chose “United States” and 13.6 percent see “Europe” as while 23 percent of the participants are uncertain about what where their revenue increases will come from. influence the initiative will have on their revenues.

308 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

问：贵企业对于在华南地区自由贸易区开办新公司或工厂有多大兴趣？ 如贵企业计划在自由贸易区开办新公司或工厂，则会选择下列哪个 自由贸易区片区？

中国（广东） 自由贸易试验区 广州南沙新区片区 30% 80% 不确定 中国（广东）自由贸易试验区 深圳前海蛇口片区 25% 70% 很大兴趣 中国（广东）自由贸易试验区 60% 珠海横琴新区片区 20% 少许兴趣 中国（福建）自由贸易试验区 50% 福州片区

15% 犹豫不定 40% 中国（福建）自由贸易试验区 厦门片区

10% 不感兴趣 30% 中国（福建）自由贸易试验区 平潭片区 20% 无任何兴趣 5% 10%

0% 0% 2016 2015 2014

针对受访企业在华南地区自由贸易区开办新公司或 在表示有兴趣在自贸区扩大经营的受访企业中，大 工厂的提问，大约38%的受访企业表示有兴趣在自贸区扩 部分企业选择了位于广东的自由贸易试验区，其中最受 大经营，25%的受访企业表示不感兴趣或无任何兴趣。有 受访企业青睐的是“中国（广东）自由贸易试验区广州 36.7%的受访企业则表示犹豫不定或不确定。 南沙新区片区”,选择该片区的受访企业比例达67%。

问：中国政府提出的“一带一路”构想将如何影响贵企业的收入？ 如“一带一路”构想将使贵企业在华收入有所增加，则增加的收入 主要来源于以下哪个国家或地区？

40% 不适用 美国 35% 50% 北美其他国家 不确定 30% 40% 南美 25% 大大增加 欧洲 30% 20% 一定程度增加 亚太地区 15% 保持原有程度 20% 10% 亚洲其他国家 一定程度减少 10% 5% 非洲 大大减少 0% 其他 0%

在“中国政府提出的‘一带一路’构想将如何影响 在预期“一带一路”构想将使企业收入增加的受 企业收入”这一问题上，有37.5%的受访企业预期“一带 访企业当中，过半数的企业预期收入增加来源于“亚太 一路”构想将使企业收入“一定程度增加”或“大大增 地区”或“其他亚洲国家”。有30.5%的受访企业选择 加”。有27%的受访企业则认为企业收入将“保持原有程 了“美国”，13.36%的企业则选择了欧洲作为他们预期 度”，而23%的企业则表示不确定该构想将为企业收入带 的收入增加来源。 来何种影响。

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Q: Is your company involved in or plans on being involved in the new “Cross-Border E-Commerce” initiative by the Chinese government? If your company is involved in or plans on being involved in Cross Border E-Com- merce, where do you expect most of your foreign imports to China come from?

United States 80% Other North American countries 70% No No As Cross-border E-commerce is (16%) Uncertain (19%) developing rapidly in China, we have (34%) No 60% South America (53%) Yes added this question to ask whether the 50% Yes Europe Yes (84%) (81%) participating companies have been or (13%) 40% plan on being involved in the “Cross- Asia Paci c 2016 30% border E-commerce” Initiative by Other Asian countries the Chinese government. Results shows that over half of the 20% Africa participants either haven’t been or are not planing on being 10% involved. We also see 33.7 percent reporting to be “Uncertain” Other 0% about the new initiative. Of those companies have been or plan on being involved in States. Also top on the rank are “Europe” and “Other Asian the “Cross-border E-commerce” Initiative, 61 percent reported Countries” who interestingly exceeded “Asia Pacific” to be a most of their foreign imports to China come from United major destination for foreign imports to China.

Q: In the event of a Bilateral Investment Treaty between the United States and China, how do you anticipate your China investment budget to change?

This year we added a question about influences of the Bi- lateral Investment Treaty (BIT) between the United States and China on the investment budgets of the participating compa- nies. The results indicated that 27.5 percent think their invest- 80% Greater than $250 million ment budgets will increase due to the BIT. 70% Between $50 million and $250 million Of those participating companies anticipating increases in 60% their investment budgets, 8 percent of the participants think Between $10 million and $50 million 50% their budgets will greatly increase with an amount of “Greater 40% Between $1 million and $10 million than $250 million”, while 73.3 percent anticipate the increase to be under $10 million. 30% Less than $1 million

20% Finally, of the small number of participating companies No change anticipating a decrease in their investment budgets, a fully one 10% hundred percent anticipated the decrease will be less than $10 0% million. The results indicate that a majority of the participating Decrease < No change > Increase 2016 companies see the BIT as an opportunity for their business de- velopment.

310 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

问：贵企业是否已参与或计划参与中国政府提出的“跨境电商”新倡议？ 如已参与或计划参与，则贵企业的进口产品主要来源于以下哪个国 家或地区？

美国 80% 北美其他国家 70% No No (16%) 南美 不确定 60% (19%) (34%) 否 跨境电商近年来在国内发展迅 (53%) 50% 欧洲 Yes Yes (84%) 猛，因此我们今年因此增加了相关 是 40% (81%) 亚太地区 (13%) 的问题以了解受访企业是否已经参 30% 与或计划参与中国政府提出的跨境 2016 亚洲其他国家 20% 电商新倡议。结果显示过半数的受 非洲 访企业并未参与或无计划参与该倡议，同时有33.7%的受 10% 其他 访企业选择了“不确定”。 0%

在表示已经参与或者计划参与中国政府提出的跨境 源于美国。“欧洲”和“其他亚洲国家”超过“亚太地 电商新倡议的受访企业中，有61%表示企业的进口产品来 区”成为受访企业的产品进口来源地。

问：中美双边投资协定将如何影响您在中国的投资预算额？

今年我们增加了关于中美双边投资协定对企业投资 预算影响的问题。结果显示27.5%的受访企业认为他们的 投资预算将因此增加。

80% 多于2.5亿美元 70% 在预期企业投资预算将因中美双边投资协定而增 5000万-2.5亿美元 加的企业中，8%的受访企业则认为预算增幅较大，将达 60%

1000万-5000万美元 到“多于2.5亿美元”, 而有73.3%的企业预期投资预算增 50% 幅为少于1000万美元。 40% 100万-1000万美元

30% 少于100万美元 而在预期企业投资预算将因此减少的少数受访企业 20% 中，所有企业均预期投资预算降幅将少于1000万美元。 没有变化 10% 这某种程度上反映了多数受访企业认为中美双边投资协 定对企业发展有积极意义。 0% 缩减 < 没有变化 > 增加 2016

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40% Uncertain Q: A more freely-convertible RMB would 35% Very positively 30% affect your company’s China opera-

25% Somewhat positively tions...

20% Not much

15% Q: A more freely-convertible RMB would Somewhat negatively

10% affect your company’s global opera- Very negatively 5% tions...

0% This is the third year we asked two questions about the convert- 50% Uncertain ibility of the yuan. This year, 52.5 percent of participants indicated that a more freely-convertible yuan would have a positive effect on 40% Very positively their China operations, down from 66 percent last year. A similar Somewhat positively 30% proportion of companies reporting that a more freely-convertible

Not much yuan would have a positive effect on their global operations. In the

20% China contexts, the proportion of companies reporting that a more Somewhat negatively freely-convertible yuan would have a negative effect on their opera-

10% Very negatively tions is about the same as last year, while in the global contexts, the percentage shrank to a near-negligible 1.2 percent. 0%

Q: How do you expect the following developments to affect your business in South China in 2016?

100% Signi cant positive eect 90%

80% Somewhat positive eect

70% Remain about the same

60% Somewhat negative eect 50% Signi cant negative eect 40%

30% Uncertain

20% Not applicable 10%

0%

RMB appreciation Increasing inflation

Tight monetary policies

Economic nationalism in China

Increasing minimum wage standards Other legislative or regulatory changes Economic nationalism in other countries

Protectionist policies in China or other countries

312 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

40% 不确定 35% 问：人民币更为自由兑换将如何 非常积极的影响 30% 影响贵企业在中国的运营？ 25% 一定程度的积极影响

20% 没什么影响 问：人民币更为自由兑换将如何 15% 一定程度的消极影响 影响贵企业在全球的运营？ 10% 非常消极的影响 5%

0% 今年是第三年我们针对人民币更为自由兑换设置 两个问题。今年有52.5%的受访企业表示人民币更为自 50% 不确定 由兑换将对他们在中国的业务产生积极的影响，比去年 的66%有所下降。相近比例的受访企业表示人民币更为 40% 非常积极的影响 自由兑换将积极影响企业的全球业务。在中国运营层面 一定程度的积极影响 上，表示人民币更为自由兑换将对企业运营产生消极影 30% 响的受访企业比例与去年相似，而在全球运营层面上， 没什么影响 表示人民币更为自由兑换将消极影响企业运营的比例则 20% 一定程度的消极影响 仅为1.2%，几乎可以忽略不计。

10% 非常消极的影响

0%

问：您认为未来的发展将会怎样影响贵企业2016年在华南地区的经营？

100% 很大程度的积极影响 90%

80% 一定程度的积极影响

70% 保持不变 60% 一定程度的消极影响 50% 很大程度的消极影响 40%

30% 不确定

20% 不适用 10%

0%

人民币升值 货币紧缩政策通货膨胀加剧 其他法规变化 中国经济民族主义 最低工资标准提高 其他国家经济民族主义

中国或其他国家保护主义政策

313 2016 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

“Increasing inflation” as in past years, was identified as the appreciation” ranked top on both positive and negative effect, largest projected negative influence on future operations, fol- with a 33.6 percent of participants saw that it would have a lowed by “Increasing minimum wage standards”. For the posi- “Somewhat positive effect” or “Significant positive effect” on tive side, this year again no category achieved a positive rating their business while a slightly higher percentage of participating by a majority of participants. However, interestingly, “RMB companies indicated that it would affect them in a negative way.

Q: In your opinion, what are the top 5 Q: In your opinion, what will be the top challenges that hinder or limit your 5 challenges over the coming 3 years company’s opportunities for growth that will hinder or limit your com- in South China? pany’s opportunities for growth in South China? 1. Local competition 1. Local competition 2. Regulatory issues (Chinese government) 2. Rising labor costs 3. Rising labor costs 3. Regulatory issues (Chinese government) 4. Lack of qualifiable general personnel 4. Lack of qualifiable general personnel 5. Foreign competition 5. Difficulty in market penetration

First year ever, when asked to identify their top business The second and third most common concerns are “Regulato- challenges from a list of 14 common issues, participants listed ry issues (Chinese government)” and “Rising labor costs” in 1– “Local competition” over “Regulatory issues (Chinese govern- year timeframe while their rank exchanged in a longer timeframe ment, for example: tax, customs, or regulations of industries)” of 3-year. The fourth most common concern “Lack of qualifiable as their primary concern in both 1-year and 3-year timeframes. general personnel” is identical in both timelines. “Foreign com- This somewhat indicated that China’s overall regulatory sys- petition”, same as last year, ranked fifth in the 1-year timeframe, tem is improving but still needs more, and the local market to- while “Difficulty in market penetration” this year took the place day is more sophisticated and mature as companies feel they are of “Lack of qualifiable general personnel” last year to rank fifth facing more competition in the local market for better products in the most common concerns in 3-year timeframes, which indi- or services. cates companies are paying more attention to the market devel- opment and future expansion. Q: Has your company made specific preparations for emergency situations, such as a po- tential outbreak of Avian Influenza (“Bird flu”) or an earthquake or other natural disaster?

The proportion of participants reporting some sort of pro- grammatic emergency response preparation has grown for the No fifth consecutive year, reaching 79 percent, up from 48 percent (21%) No in 2012 and 35 percentNo in 2011. (38%) (41%) Yes Yes Yes Similar to last year, descriptions of response schemes provid- (59%) (79%) (62%) ed by study participants included alternate supply chains, back- up product lines, earthquake drills, insurance policies, as well as preventative measures such as in-time forecast, hygiene training, 2016 2015 2014and remote work procedures.

314 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

与往年一样，“通货膨胀加剧”被认为是影响未来 的排名上均位于前列。有33.6%的受访企业认为人民币 运营的最大负面因素，其次是“最低工资标准提高”。 升值将对他们的业务有“一定程度的积极影响”或“很 而在积极因素方面，并无其中某一选项比例特别突出。 大的积极影响”，而亦有略高比例的受访企业认为人民 然而，有趣的是“人民币升值”在负面因素及积极因素 币升值将对他们的业务产生消极影响。

问：在您看来，哪五项挑战会阻 问：在您看来，哪五项在未来三 碍或限制贵公司在华南地区发 年内将会成为阻碍或限制贵公司 展？ 在华南地区发展的主要挑战？

1. 本地竞争 1. 本地竞争 2. 法律法规问题（中国政府，例如: 2. 人力资源成本增加 税收、关税或行业法规） 3. 法律法规问题（中国政府，例如: 3. 人力资源成本增加 税收、关税或行业法规） 4. 缺乏“合格”人才（总体上讲） 4. 缺乏“合格”人才（总体上讲） 5. 国外竞争 5. 市场渗透困难

今年，“本地竞争”有史以来第一次超过“法律法 是“法律法规问题（中国政府，例如：税收、关税、行业 规问题（中国政府，例如：税收、关税或行业法规）” 法规）”以及“人力资源成本增加”。而这两个选项在企 成为受访企业一年及三年内最关注的问题。 业未来三年内最关注问题上的排名却刚好对调。“缺乏‘ 合格人才’（总体上讲）”在未来一年及三年最关注问题 这某程度上表明了中国法律系统有所改善但仍有进 上均名列第四。在未来一年最关注问题上，“国外竞争” 步空间。而日益成熟和完善的本地市场促使企业更关注 今年名列第五，与去年相同。而在未来三年最关注问题 本地竞争，致力于生产更优质的产品及提供更好的服务 上，“市场渗透困难”取代了“缺乏‘合格’人才（总体 以赢得本地市场中的更多份额。 上讲）”名列第五。这表明企业更多关注市场的发展及未 来的扩张。 在未来一年最关注问题上，位列第二、三位的分别

问：贵公司是否对可能发生的紧急情况，比如禽流感爆发、地震或其 他自然灾害做好特别的防范措施？

表示在某种程度上做好应急防范准备的受访企业比 例连续五年上升，今年该比例为79%。该比例在2012年 否 为48%，而在2011年仅为35%。 (21%) 否 否 (38%) (41%) 是 是 是 与去年相似，受访企业列举的防范措施包括准备启 (79%) (62%) (59%) 用应急供应链、后备生产线、地震演习、投资保险产品 以及预防性措施，如及时预报、卫生培训和远程工作流 程准备。 2016 2015 2014

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Q: How would you rate AmCham South China’s 2015 performance on delivering pro- grams and activities that match your expectations and needs?

50% Outstanding This year, 93.8 percent of the participating companies rated AmCham South China’s per- 40% Very good formance as “Good/acceptable”, “Very good” or “Outstanding”. A strong majority of 66 percent Good/acceptable 30% chose the latter two categories.

Needs improvement

20% Poor

10%

0% 2016 2015 2014

Q: In what areas would you recommend future improvements in AmCham’s programs and services? 60% More presentations on relevant topics Identical as last year, the most common ar-

50% eas for improvement this year selected by survey More social activities participants were, in descending order, “More

40% More round table discussions presentations on relevant topics”, “More social activities” and “More round-table discussions”. 30% More lobbying e orts

20% More publications

More services 10%

Other 0% 2016 2015 2014

316 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

问：在开展项目和举办活动方面，您如何评价华南美国商会2015年的 工作表现？

50% 今年有93.8%的受访企业对华南美国商 优异 会的工作评价为“好/可接受”、“很好”

40% 很好 或“优异”，其中大多数受访企业（66%） 的评价为“很好”或“优异”。 好/可接受 30%

有待提高

20% 差

10%

0% 2016 2015 2014 问：您认为华南美国商会在工作和服务方面还有哪些地方需要提高？

60% 更多相关专题讲座 与往年类似，2015年受访企业表示有待 改进的方面依次是“更多专题讲座”、“更 50% 更多社交活动 多社交活动”、“更多圆桌讨论会”。

40% 更多圆桌讨论会

30% 更多倡导努力

20% 更多出版物

更多服务 10%

其他 0% 2016 2015 2014

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The American Chamber of Commerce in South China (AmCham South China) is a non-partisan, non-profit business organization, certified in 1995 by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington D.C. AmCham South China represents more than 2,300 American and International companies doing business in South China.

华南美国商会（美国商会）是一家无党派、非营性 商业组织，由设在华盛顿特区的美国全国商会批准，于 1995年成立。华南美国商会代表了在华南地区投资经营 的超过2300家美国及国际企业。