“DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN GREATER SUDBURY, SUDBURY AND MANITOULIN”
CHARLES CIRTWILL, PRESIDENT & CEO 28 JUNE 2017, SUDBURY Agenda
1. Demographic Trends: Emigration, Aging, and Population Decline
2. Socio-Economic Consequences: Increasing Demographic Dependence and Decreasing Productivity
3. Possible Solutions: Migration and Education Demographic Trends Emigration, Aging, and Population Decline Demographic Trends More emigrants than in-migrants
NET MIGRATION - NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO 1000 500 0 -500 -1000 -1500 -2000 -2500 -3000 -3500 -4000 -4500
Net Interprovincial Migration Net Intraprovincial Migration Net International Migration Net Migration
Source: author's calculations based on Statistics Canada. Table 051-0063 - Components of population growth by census division, sex and age group for the period from July 1 to June 30, based on the Standard Geographical Classification (SGC) 2011, annual (persons) Demographic Trends Little Population Growth
CUMULATED OVERALL POPULATION GROWTH - PROJECTIONS 5%
Manitoulin District, 0.4% 0% Northeastern Ontario, -0.7% Greater Sudbury, -0.8%
-5%
-10%
-15%
Sudbury District, -18.6% -20%
Source: Author’s calculations based on Statistics Canada, estimates of population, and on Ontario Ministry of Finance population projections – Spring 2016 Demographic Trends Population is Aging
POPULATION BY AGE GROUP AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL POPULATION Greater Sudbury Manitoulin District
40% 36.7% 40% 35.8% 33.5% 35% 35% 29.5% 31.0% 29.4% 28.2% 30% 30% 26.1% 25.0% 23.7% 23.8% 25% 25% 18.4% 20% 20% 15.5% 15.8%14.4% 13.4% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% 0-14 Years Old 15-44 Years Old 45-64 years Old 65 Years and Older 0-14 Years Old 15-44 Years Old 45-64 years Old 65 Years and Older
Sudbury District Northeastern Ontario 40% 38.0% 40% 35.7% 35.2% 35% 35% 31.0% 30.4% 31.0% 28.8% 30% 26.1% 30% 24.0% 24.9% 25% 22.5% 25% 20.3% 20% 20% 14.1% 15% 13.1%11.9% 15% 13.1% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% 0-14 Years Old 15-44 Years Old 45-64 years Old 65 Years and Older 0-14 Years Old 15-44 Years Old 45-64 years Old 65 Years and Older
2016 2041
Source: Author’s calculations based on Statistics Canada, 2016 Census and Ontario Ministry of Finance population projections – Spring 2016 Demographic Trends A Declining Labour Force
CUMULATIVE GROWTH OF LABOUR FORCE (15 TO 64 YEARS OLD) 5%
0%
-5%
-10% Greater Sudbury, -14.2% -15% Northeastern Ontario, -15.0% -20% Manitoulin District, -17.9%
-25%
-30%
-35% Sudbury District, -37.3% -40%
Source: Author’s calculations based on Statistics Canada, estimates of population, and on Ontario Ministry of Finance population projections – Spring 2016 Socio-Economic Consequences Increasing Demographic Dependence and Decreasing Productivity Socio-Economic Consequences More and More Dependents
DEMOGRAPHIC DEPENDENCY RATIO (DDR) - NORTHEAST 0.85
0.80
0.75
0.70
0.65
0.60
0.55
0.50 Source: Author’s 0.45 calculations based on Ontario Ministry of Finance population 0.40 projections – Spring 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2016 DDR, NEO DDR, ON DDR, CAN DDR, Target1 DDR, Target2
(Population 0-14 + Population 65+) DDR = (Population 15-64) Socio-Economic Consequences Decreasing Productivity
PRODUCTIVITY TRENDS 100 100 99.88 100 100 100 99.5 99.67 99.74 99 99.05 98.5 98 97.5 97 96.5 96 95.5 95 Greater Sudbury Manitoulin Sudbury Northeastern Ontario 2013 2041
Source: Cuddy, J., and Moazzami, B. (2017). Northern Projections: Human Capital series. Northern Policy Institute (Thunder Bay) and Northern Ontario Planning Boards. Socio-Economic Consequences Shortage of Workers and Skills as 39,425 Workers Retire
NUMBER OF WORKERS WHO WILL REACH 65 BY 2021 BY OCCUPATION IN NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO 9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000 8,180 7,240 7,215 3,000
4,570 2,000 4,220 2,735 1,000 2,055 1,295 1,260 655 0 Management Business, Natural & Health Occupations in Occupations in Sales & service Trades, Natural Occupations in occupations finance & applied occupations education, law art, culture, occupations transport & resources, manufacturing administration sciences & & social, recreation & equipment agriculture & & utilities occupations related community & sport operators & related occupations government related production services occupations occupations
Source: Author’s calculations based on Statistics Canada, National Household Survey 2011 Socio-Economic Consequences Skills shortage as workers will retire
NUMBER OF RETIREMENTS BY 2021 AND GRADUATES BY OCCUPATION IN NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO
Occupations in manufacturing & utilities
Natural resources, agriculture & related production occupations
Trades, transport & equipment operators & related occupations
Sales & service occupations
Occupations in art, culture, recreation & sport
Occupations in education, law & social, community & government…
Health occupations
Natural & applied sciences & related occupations
Business, finance & administration occupations
Management occupations
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
Number of workers reaching 65 by 2021 Total Grads 2014
Sources: Jarrod Sundmark, “Labour Market Alignment: Education in the North” Northern Policy Institute, based on Statistics Canada Job Vacancies and Wages Survey, and CUDO/data provided by Colleges; Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, 2011. Possible Solutions Migration and Education Possible Solutions Newcomer Attraction and Migrant Retention
REQUIRED ANNUAL NET MIGRATION
NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO 9000 8000 7000 GREATER SUDBURY 6000 183 to 1,841 Newcomers
5000 4153 4000 MANITOULIN DISTRICT 3000 50 to 154 Newcomers 2000 734 1000 SUDBURY DISTRICT 0 105 to 282 Newcomers -1000 -2000
Annual Net Migration - Target 1 Annual Net Migration - Target 2 Average Annual Net Migration - Target 1 Average Annual Net Migration - Target 2
Source: Author’s calculations based on Ontario Ministry of Finance population projections – Spring 2016 Possible Solutions Education Opportunities to Increase Productivity
HUMAN CAPITAL INDEX FOR THE WORKING AGE POPULATION, 2011 160
150
140
130 154.3 150.5 143.1 143.4 120 141.9 140.3 138.5 135.9 135.4 133.1 134.4 134.9 129.4 128.7 130 130.6 110
100 Total Population Immigrants Indigenous Francophones
Greater Sudbury Manitoulin Sudbury Northeastern Ontario
Source: Cuddy, J., and Moazzami, B. (2017). Northern Projections: Human Capital series. Northern Policy Institute (Thunder Bay) and Northern Ontario Planning Boards. Conclusion
In the Sudbury, Manitoulin and Greater Sudbury Districts, the labour force is aging and declining. It impacts the future economic sustainability and productivity of the district. On the short-medium term migration will help mitigate this trend. In the long term, investing in Indigenous education and policies favouring families can offer additional solutions. It is CRITICAL to understand and express publicly that ALL of these avenues must be pursued – it is NOT an either/or situation. Thank you. Merci. Miigwetch.
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