10SvnenhSre,NW,Wsigo,DC 03 0.6.80www.aei.org 202.862.5800 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 W tension betweentheUnited StatesandChina,or Nixon couldapproachMao Zedong afteryearsof suburban, orruralRepublicancounterparts.Justas more credibilitythanthoseofmanyhiswhite, communities, hiscriticismsandsolutionscarry large urbancenterwithahistoryworkinginpoor an AfricanAmericanDemocrathailingfroma President Obama’s NixongoestoChinaissue. robust foreignpolicy. that suchavisitwouldsignalhimsofteninghis go toChinabecausenoonewouldhaveimagined way thatonlyheorshecould.OnlyNixoncould interest groupandwhotakesonthatina a leaderwhoisstaunchlysupportedbyparticular born: a“NixongoestoChina”momentdescribes an educationpolicyresearchfellow atAEI.. Michael Q.McShane([email protected]) is effects ontheUSeducationdebate. common assumptionsaboutreformersandwhattheystrivetoaccomplishwillhavelong-termpositive their votes.RegardlessofwhetherPresidentObama’s reformsliveuptotheirhype,hischallengingof popular Democraticpresidentdoesnothavetodowhatismostfavorableteachersunionssecure most notablyembodiedinhisunrestrictedstimulusdollarstostatesanddistricts,hehassignaledthata Elementary andSecondaryEducationAct.AlthoughtherearelimitationstoObama’s educationagenda, gridlock, namelythroughtheRacetoTop initiativeandhisblueprintforthereauthorizationof school costs,failingtoimproveperformance.PresidentObamahassuccessfullychallengedthis education—labeled an“irontriangle”bypoliticalscientists—hashistoricallyresistedreformandincreased |in awaymostotherleadershavenotbeenableto.Anearlyinsurmountablesubgovernmentinpublic with poorcommunitieshasequippedhimtoconfrontteachersunionsandotherspecialinterestgroups The factthatpresidentBarackObamaisanAfricanAmericanDemocratwithabackgroundworking By MichaelQ.McShane Education Reform Turning theTides: PresidentObamaand Reforming theAmericaneducationsystemis 1972, apopularpoliticalmetaphorwas hen PresidentNixonvisitedChinain 1 As • • • • this in points Key on thelandscapeofeducation politics. on educationthatwillhavelasting impact cant pivotintheDemocratic Party’s position Obama’s educationinitiatives markasignifi- education policymaking. had ahistoricallyoutsizedinfluenceon groups suchasteachersunions,whichhave challenged entrenchedspecialinterest line, PresidentObamahasfundamentally evaluation, andawideningteacherpipe- choice, teacherperformancedata, By promotingreformsinvolvingschool ers beforehimcouldnot. tackle educationreforminawaythatoth- munity organizinghasallowedhimto a largeurbancenterwithhistoryincom- African AmericanDemocrathailingfrom President Obama’s uniquestatusasan No. 6 • September 2012 September • 6 No. Outlook:

Education Outlook - 2 - as Dwight Eisenhower could challenge the US military, Iron triangles are neither new nor exclusive to educa- President Obama can confront teachers unions and tion. First coined by Ralph Pulitzer in 1919 to describe established interests in the status quo without being seri- the relationship between the parties at the Paris Peace ously accused of abandoning the poor or working class. Conference, the most notable example of an iron trian- For decades, interest groups, school boards, and state- gle is the military industrial complex. In this network, level House of Representatives committees overseeing defense contractors (the interest group), the US Depart- education as well as state and local education agencies ment of Defense (the bureaucracy), and the US House have formed what political scientists label an “iron and Senate Arms Services committees (the legislative triangle”—a nearly impenetrable subgovernment in pub- branch) colluded to consolidate and increase the power lic education that has resisted reform while increasing of military interests in American politics. school costs and failing to improve performance. The largest interest group—teachers unions—makes up one Just as Nixon could approach corner of this triangle. They have long been an impor- tant power base of the Democratic Party. In fact, at the after years of tension between the United 2008 Democratic National Convention, around one States and , or as Dwight Eisenhower tenth of the 4,400 delegates were members of a teachers union.2 In the past five years, the American Federation could challenge the US military, President of Teachers (AFT) and the National Education Associa- tion (NEA) have spent over $330 million to influence Obama can confront teachers unions and elections, overwhelmingly to support Democrats.3 If established interests in the status quo without these two groups were combined, they would represent the single largest donor to American political campaigns.4 being seriously accused of abandoning By advocating for more school choice, better data the poor or working class. on teacher performance, and an expanded pipeline of teachers, Obama has embraced improvements long favored by education “reformers” and opposed by teach- In this case, as with all iron triangles, the bureaucracy ers unions. Rhetorically and through major education derives its power from its constituencies, not its con- policy initiatives—namely through Race to the Top sumers.5 This insulated arrangement leads to principal- (RTT) and his blueprint for reauthorization of the Ele- agent problems, where lower-level workers are able to mentary and Secondary Education Act (ESEA)—Obama water-down, coopt, or outright avoid having to do what has challenged the status quo, marking a significant they are asked to do by their superiors because there is no change in the Democratic position on education reform. check by other points of the triangle. It also leads to a By challenging the interests of this entrenched group, large amount of rent-seeking by outside forces with mater- President Obama joins a short list of reform-minded ial interests in government funding, since the other points Democrats and has opened the door for other actors not of the triangle fail to provide their normal oversight. traditionally a part of the conversation to join in shap- In the case of education, teachers unions (and other ing the American education system. In doing so, he has organizations that have an interest in maintaining power upset the apple cart of education politics for the better, and privilege) are able to exert an enormous amount of something that will likely last well beyond any of the influence on state- and district-level elections, putting substance of his administration’s reforms. legislators and school board members into office who then hire bureaucrats (state education agency officials, The Iron Triangle of Education district superintendents, and local education agency workers) to oversee teachers.6 Teachers unions have historically been successful in resist- The symbiotic relationship between these three groups ing reform because they comprise one point of the educa- has created a continuing cycle of increased appropria- tion iron triangle—a subgovernmental structure that tions and friendly regulation that has led to a three-fold exploits the collusion between an interest group, the seg- increase in K–12 education spending since the early ment of the legislative branch that is tasked with oversee- 1970s, with no appreciable increase in National Assess- ing it, and the bureaucracy charged with its management. ment of Educational Progress (NAEP) scores.7 Since - 3 - 1955, there have been nine US recessions that brought win higher salaries in elections held off-cycle than in contraction to the private sector labor market, but only elections held on-cycle.14 twice in the early 1980s and again just recently have there In these off-cycle elections, and in the larger elections been any pauses in the growth of employment of public of state-level legislators, teachers unions are most often the school employees.8 There has never (again, until recently) largest spenders on campaign contributions. In the recall been a significant decline in per-pupil spending.9 attempt of Scott Walker, teachers unions contributed over And, although the average staff-to-student ratio has $1 million.15 Similarly, when attempting to oust Michelle fallen from 14:1 in 1970 to 8:1 in 2012, seventeen-year- Rhee, teachers unions spent $1 million in the Washington, olds’ NAEP scores in reading have only increased by a DC, mayor’s election, and those figures only count direct single point (from a 285 to a 286). The story is similar in contribution to campaigns, not lobbyists, independent math. In 1973, seventeen-year-olds averaged a 304, and, radio or television commercials, flyers, phone banks, by 2008, the score had only increased by two points.10 teams to knock on doors, or any number of other ways This trend is not only found in test scores, but also in that unions can contribute to elections “in kind.”16 other important indicators of the success of America’s Teachers unions have ideological allies shoring up the education system, such as the national high school iron triangle as well, most often ensconced in traditional graduation rate. In 1970, 77.1 percent of US students schools of education. Arizona State Professor Gene Glass graduated from high school, whereas by 2007, the rate authored a book popular in schools of education, entitled had dropped to 68.8 percent.11 Years of stagnation of Fertilizers, Pills and Magnetic Strips, which states that it is production at ever-increasing costs are a textbook indi- “poverty and discrimination that threaten American cator of the effects of an iron triangle. education; not bureaucracy and teachers unions.”17 He There is ample potential for a particularly insidious argues that the methods of reform advanced by econo- education iron triangle in the United States because, as mists “are the free trade measures enacted by the neo- eminent political scientist James Q. Wilson argued, edu- conservatives and extended by the neoliberals and cation holds a “privileged place” in American society.12 [those] that are contributing to the eradication of the Indeed, the American people have a generally favorable middle class and to the transformation of today’s public view of teachers. The 2010, 2011, and 2012 Phi Delta institutions for the worse.”18 Kappa/Gallup Polls found that 71 percent of respondents had “trust and confidence in the men and women who And, although the average staff-to-student are teaching children in the public schools.”13 For many years, Americans also had favorable impres- ratio has fallen from 14:1 in 1970 to 8:1 in sions of the unions that represented teachers. In the 1976 Phi Delta Kappa/Gallup Poll, 22 percent of 2012, seventeen-year-olds’ NAEP scores in respondents agreed that unionization has helped public reading have only increased by a single point. schools, and only 38 percent believed it had harmed schools. This has changed, however. In the 2011 admin- istration of the survey, 26 percent of respondents argued Interestingly, this book was blurbed by the president that unionization has helped schooling, and 47 percent of the American Educational Research Association, the argued that it has hurt the quality of public education. nation’s largest organization of education researchers, School board elections—the primary democratic check who called it “the first credible book of the 21st century on the education bureaucracy—are ripe for coopting by to anticipate the future of public education.” This is not interest groups. As Terry Moe of Stanford University a fringe work. It is, however, emblematic of the thinking points out in his book Special Interest: Teachers Unions of many of those training America’s next generation of and America’s Public Schools, most school board elections educators, who believe education reform is the work of are off-cycle and nonpartisan, resulting in an extremely racist reactionaries who want to defund public schools to low turnout and voters without easy cues to separate the save themselves tax dollars and keep their children seg- candidates. This would allow organized interest groups to regated from poor and minority students. seize control of elections and elect candidates more friendly Researchers David Steiner and Susan Rozen found that to their agenda. Not surprisingly, Moe’s empirical Jonathan Kozol’s Savage Inequalities was tied with Anita analysis found that teachers unions are more likely to Woolfolk’s Educational Psychology as the most assigned text - 4 - in the schools of education they studied.19 According to that he understands first-hand the need for change in Marcus Winters of the University of Colorado–Colorado public education. In his 1995 memoir Dreams from My Springs, Kozol’s text argues that “minority children are Father, Obama lamented the dire conditions of the unsuccessful because rich, white Americans have little Chicago public schools during his time as a community interest in using their vast resources to help them.”20 organizer there, but more notably stated: The fact that Kozol’s book is assigned as much as the authoritative text on educational psychology shows the the biggest source of resistance was rarely talked level to which this ideology has permeated these programs. about, though—namely, the uncomfortable fact that Iron Triangles tend to remain dominant—causing every one of our churches was filled with teachers, decreased or stagnant results and ever-increasing costs— principals, and district superintendents. Few of these until some sort of external shock breaks them. For the educators sent their own children to public schools; military industrial complex, the shock was the end of they knew too much for that. But they would defend the . While still powerful, the military indus- the status quo with the same skill and vigor as their trial complex was no longer dominant (military interests white counterparts of two decades before.23 now have to compete with other claims on limited tax- payer dollars). The “educational industrial complex” that rose to In the 2011 administration of the survey, dominance after the initial ESEA reauthorization and 26 percent of respondents argued that the enormous amount of federal tax dollars that traveled into state and local education agencies maintained unionization has helped schooling, and supremacy for decades. Similar to the bureaucratic torpor 47 percent argued that it has hurt the that made schools less efficient over time, a kind of ideo- logical torpor stifled new ideas in education. In response quality of public education. to teachers unions and their ideological allies, for years, the reform-side party line has deemed Democrats a lost cause, suggesting that the only way to reform the educa- President Obama has firsthand experience with the tion system is to elect Republicans. This myopic way of frustratingly intransigent American education system, thinking has disregarded the opportunity for a Nixon and when he became president, he tried to do something goes to China Democrat to take on teachers unions and about it. He also used his experience in the communities push for real reform. With some important limits, Barack most adversely affected by low-quality schools to identify Obama is that reformer. that there were people working in these areas who wanted to reform schools. As US secretary of education Challenging the Iron Triangle: Barack Arne Duncan argued, referencing the RTT program: Obama’s Reforms We didn’t create all of this movement, we simply The Obama administration’s reforms have clearly unleashed it. There was all this pent-up demand. shocked the iron triangle. One must look no further People in their hearts knew that what was going on than teachers unions’ responses to President Obama’s in our schools was bad. Wrong. Immoral. We ended signature education initiative to confirm this reality. up with almost as much change in the states that AFT president Randi Weingarten said of RTT: “It looks didn’t win the money—sometimes even more— like the only strategies they have are charter schools and than states that did win the money. It wasn’t about measurement. That’s Bush Three.”21 Leaders of both the the money. It was about creating a climate that gave NEA and the AFT said they were “disappointed” with states and districts and politicians permission to do Obama’s ESEA Blueprint, with Weingarten going so far what was right.24 as to say: “from everything that we’ve seen, this blue- print places 100 percent of the responsibility on teachers This speaks to the Nixon goes to China dynamic. Presi- and gives them zero percent of the authority.”22 dent Obama was able to pursue these relatively radical Why would President Obama shock this iron trian- measures because he was less likely to be critiqued for doing gle? One argument, based in his own earlier writings, is so. A Democratic reformer’s ideas do not resemble the - 5 - “assault on public schools” label that has been given to unions that—for all intents and purposes—invalidated similar reforms advanced by Republican presidents and gov- major portions of the reforms proposed in RTT applica- ernors in the past. Because it is assumed that Republicans tions. Those charged with scoring the applications will support these measures, holding all other things equal, missed these memoranda and rewarded some states for a Democrat’s support of these reforms holds more weight. reforms they had no intention of implementing. This In the eyes of those who accuse reformers of being was a mistake. racist, clearly breaks the mold. In regards to education, Obama does not shy away from racial He also used his experience in the issues, “going to China” through his discussion of the plight of African American youth. In a 2010 address to communities most adversely affected by the Urban League, he directly addressed African Ameri- low-quality schools to identify that there can students by saying: were people working in these areas who At certain points in our lives, young black men and wanted to reform schools. women may feel the sting of discrimination. They may feel trapped in a community where drugs, vio- lence, and unemployment are pervasive, where they The stimulus also prevented austerity that might have are forced to wrestle with things no child should driven more reforms. It is important to note that the have to face. There are all kinds of reasons for our $4.35 billion that were earmarked for RTT were part of children to say, “No, I can’t.” But it is our job to say the $100 billion stimulus package that went to states and to them, “Yes, you can.” Yes you can overcome. Yes districts to stave off massive teacher and administrator you can persevere. Yes you can make of your lives layoffs. Those layoffs provided an opportunity for mean- what you will.25 ingful conversations about teacher quality and could have been a strong impetus to develop many of the reforms It is hard to imagine that anyone from the traditional that RTT pushed—without spending any money. If (in education establishment would characterize the president what Secretary Duncan referred to as the “new normal”) as working against the best interests of minority students. teachers were going to be laid off, it would be in most Fundamentally, Obama-era reforms have helped like- states and districts’ interests to try and make sure those minded education leaders enact plans that they lacked teachers were the lowest quality, so that perhaps last-in the wherewithal to push earlier. As former Louisiana first-out provisions and overgenerous tenure protections State superintendent Paul Pastorek said about RTT: would have been eliminated on their own.27 This is not to say that President Obama has embraced Creating a competitive fund of money for people who all changes favored by reform-minded parties. Obama want to do the right thing has already proven to be does not support private school vouchers, even though effective. People have changed their laws and there is a preponderance of evidence that school vouch- changed their mindsets. While we were working on ers increase achievement for students that use them and passing a value-added law prior to RTT, the competi- for those that remain in public schools.28 He did not tive grant incentivized us to accelerate our push.26 support them when he debated civil rights leader and voucher advocate Howard Fuller in Chicago in 1998, and he does not support vouchers when the DC Oppor- Limitations to Obama-Era Reforms tunity Scholarship Program asks for more financing every year—even when the government-sponsored eval- This is not to say that Obama’s agenda has met with suc- uation finds large positive results in graduation rates for cess across the board. Eight of the twelve governors or students that participated in the program.29 mayors leading states or districts that won one of the two This is also not to say that the days of referring to rounds of RTT were replaced in the 2010 mid-term elec- reformers as racists are over. One must look no further tion, making implementation of the reforms suffer. Simi- than the comments sections of an article written by larly, some applications included “memoranda of someone arguing for school choice or teacher tenure understanding” between state leaders and teachers reform to see that that particular brand of vitriol is alive - 6 - and well. However, with President Obama taking visible 5. Gordon Adams, The Politics of Defense Contracting: The positions supporting education reform, such charges look Iron Triangle (Piscataway: Transaction Publishers, 1981). less like serious challenges and more like the dying gasps 6. Terry Moe, Special Interest: Teachers Unions and America’s of an interest group that has lost the war of ideas. The Public Schools (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2011). tide has turned. 7. National Center for Education Statistics, “Total Revenues per Pupil, in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools: 1969–70 Conclusion to 2008–09,” http://nces.ed.gov/edfin/graph_topic.asp?INDEX =12 (accessed August 29, 2012). When Nixon went to China, he fundamentally changed 8. James Guthrie, “Public Schools and Money” Education the way the United States engaged with the world. His Next 12, no. 4 (Fall 2012), http://educationnext.org/public- trip signaled that diplomacy and robust foreign policy schools-and-money/ (accessed September 4, 2012). were not mutually exclusive, and that there was a time 9. Ibid. and place for both. Barack Obama’s challenging of 10. National Center for Education Statistics, “The Nation’s teachers unions sends that same message. There is a time Report Card: Trends in Academic Progress in Reading and for collaboration, but it has its limits. If interest groups Mathematics 2008,” http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/pubs will still oppose necessary change, elected leaders— /main2008/2009479.asp (accessed August 29, 2012). Democrats and Republicans—need to act to advance 11. Education Week, “The Nation’s Long and Winding Path their agenda. to Graduation,” www.edweek.org/media/34gradrate-c1.pdf By promoting choice, data, evaluation, and new (accessed August 29, 2012). pipelines of teachers, President Obama has signaled that 12. Jay P. Greene, Education Myths (New York: Roman and reform is no longer strictly the purview of Republicans, Littlefield, 2005), ix-xii. and that Democrats can stand up to teachers unions and 13. Phi Delta Kappa/Gallup, “What Americans Said about survive. In fact, both the NEA and the AFT have already the Public Schools,” www.pdkintl.org/poll/docs/pdkpoll43_2011 endorsed his reelection bid, showing that a popular .pdf (accessed August 29, 2012). Democratic politician does not always have to do what is 14. Moe, Special Interest. most favorable to the unions in order to get their vote. 15. Sarah Butrymowicz, “Following the Money: Where Are By taking these stands, the president has moved the Teachers’ Unions Spending the Most?,” The Hechinger Report, left flank of the education debate toward embracing more http://hechingerreport.org/content/following-the-money-where- dramatic reform of the American education system and are-teachers-unions-spending-the-most_8943/ (accessed August has challenged common assumptions about reformers and 29, 2012). what they hope to accomplish. Even if the substance of 16. Ben Smith, “Teachers Union Helped Unseat Fenty,” his reforms fails to live up to their hype, the resulting Politico, www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0910/Teachers_ change in the politics of education will have positive union_helped_unseat_Fenty.html (accessed August 29, 2012). effects on the education debate for the foreseeable future. 17. Gene V. Glass, Fertilizers, Pills, and Magnetic Strips (Char- lotte: Information Age, 2008), 48. Notes 18. Ibid., 42. 19. David Steiner and Susan D. Rozen, “Preparing 1. I am by no means the first person to refer to President Tomorrow’s Teachers: An Analysis of Syllabi from a Sample Obama as a “Nixon goes to China” thinker on education issues. of American’s Schools of Education,” in A Qualified Teacher Democrats for Education Reform supporter David Einhorn notably in Every Classroom?, eds. Fredrick M. Hess, Andrew J. Rother- referred to him as such in Steven Brill’s book Class Warfare. ham, and Kate Walsh (Cambridge: Harvard Education Press, 2. Dana Goldstein, “The Democratic Education Divide,” The 2004). American Prospect, August 25, 2008, http://prospect.org/article 20. Marcus Winters, “Savage Exaggerations,” Education Next /democratic-education-divide (accessed September 4, 2012). 6, no. 2 (2006), http://educationnext.org/savage-exaggerations/ 3. Alicia Mundy, “Teachers Unions Give Broadly,” Wall (accessed September 4, 2012). Street Journal, July 12, 2012. 21. Stephen Brill, Class Warfare (New York: Simon and 4. Open Secrets, “Top All-Time Donors, 1989–2012,” Schuster, 2011). August 6, 2012, www.opensecrets.org/orgs/list.php?order=A 22. Sam Dillon, “Obama Calls for Major Change in Educa- (accessed August 29, 2012). tion Law,” New York Times, March 13, 2010. - 7 -

23. Barack Obama, Dreams from My Father: A Story of Race 27. Arne Duncan, “The New Normal: Doing More with and Inheritance (New York: Broadway, 1995). Less” (remarks, AEI, Washington, DC, November 17, 2010). 24. Brill, Class Warfare, 418. 28. Greg Forster, A Win-Win Solution: The Empirical Evidence 25. White House, “Remarks by the President on Education on School Vouchers (Indianapolis: The Foundation for Educa- Reform at the National Urban League Centennial Conference,” tional Choice, 2011). press release, July 29, 2012, www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office 29. Trip Gabriel, “Budget Deal Fuels Revival of School /remarks-president-education-reform-national-urban-league- Vouchers,” New York Times, April 14, 2011, and Patrick Wolf et centennial-conference (accessed August 29, 2012). al., Evaluation of the DC Opportunity Scholarship Program: Final 26. Frederick M. Hess, “Straight Up Conversation: Louisiana Report (Washington, DC: National Center for Education Evalu- Schools Chief Paul Pastorek Reflects on RTT,” Rick Hess ation and Regional Assistance, Institute of Education Sciences, Straight Up, http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/rick_hess_straight US Department of Education, June 2010) http://www.eric.ed _up/2010/08/straight_up_conversation_louisiana_schools_chief_ .gov/PDFS/ED510451.pdf (accessed September 4, 2012). paul_pastorek_reflects_on_rtt.html (accessed August 29, 2012).