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Incorporating Climate Change Into Fisheries Management in Atlantic Canada and the Eastern Arctic

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Incorporating Climate Change Into Fisheries Management in Atlantic Canada and the Eastern Arctic 1533 Barrington St, Suite 200, Halifax, NS, B3J 1Z4 www.oceansnorth.org Incorporating climate change into fisheries management in Atlantic Canada and the Eastern Arctic Prepared by Dr. Daniel G. Boyce, The Ocean Frontier Institute at Dalhousie University for Oceans North Citation: Boyce, D. G., Schleit, K., & Fuller, S. (2020). Incorporating climate change into fisheries management in Atlantic Canada and the Eastern Arctic. Halifax, Nova scotia, Canada. 1 Table of Contents Table of Contents ................................................................................................................................ 2 List of tables ........................................................................................................................................ 5 List of figures ....................................................................................................................................... 5 Glossary and abbreviations .............................................................................................................. 7 Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................ 9 Introduction....................................................................................................................................... 10 1. The value of healthy and productive fisheries ....................................................................... 11 1.1 Culture and nutrition ............................................................................................................... 11 1.2 Economic .................................................................................................................................. 12 1.3 Ecosystem functioning and service provision ....................................................................... 17 1.4 Key points ................................................................................................................................. 18 2. Fisheries productivity in Atlantic Canada and the Eastern Canadian Arctic .................... 19 2.1 The area of interest ................................................................................................................. 19 2.2 Biogeographic overview .......................................................................................................... 21 2.3 Key points ................................................................................................................................. 23 3. Fisheries: status, significant species, and trends ................................................................... 24 3.1 Overview ................................................................................................................................... 24 3.1.1 Major species ................................................................................................................................25 3.1.2 Stock assessments ........................................................................................................................27 3.1.3 Sustainability survey for fisheries ..............................................................................................32 3.2 Key points ................................................................................................................................. 34 4. Observed climate effects on marine ecosystems and fisheries in Canada ....................... 35 4.1 Overview of climate effects on marine ecosystems.............................................................. 35 4.2 Climate effects on the physical–chemical environment ....................................................... 39 4.3 Climate effects on plankton .................................................................................................... 44 4.4 Climate effects on bacteria and viruses ................................................................................. 45 4.5 Climate effects on fisheries ..................................................................................................... 45 4.5.1 Distributional shifts......................................................................................................................46 4.5.2 Phenology ......................................................................................................................................47 4.5.3 Size structure ................................................................................................................................47 4.5.4 Predation .......................................................................................................................................48 4.5.5 Synergistic effects .........................................................................................................................48 4.6 Increasing magnitude and frequency of extreme events..................................................... 50 4.7 Key points ................................................................................................................................. 50 2 5. Future changes in marine ecosystems and fisheries in Canada ......................................... 51 5.1 An overview of climate projection and forecasting............................................................... 51 5.2 Methods ................................................................................................................................... 53 5.3 Ensemble climate projections of temperature, plankton, and animal biomass ................. 54 5.4 Projected timing of climate emergence from natural variability ......................................... 57 5.5 Climate projections of species distribution ........................................................................... 59 5.6 Climate change impacts in relation to fisheries productivity and ecosystem stressors .... 59 5.7 Key points ................................................................................................................................. 63 6. Incorporating climate change into fisheries management: approaches and best practices . 64 6.1 Summary .................................................................................................................................. 64 6.2 Overarching management objectives, principles, and priorities ......................................... 66 6.2.1 Minimizing abatable stressors and promoting healthy fisheries ...........................................67 6.2.2 An ecosystem approach to fisheries ..........................................................................................67 6.2.3 Precautionary approaches .........................................................................................................67 6.2.4 Enhancing ecological stability ....................................................................................................67 6.3 Data and information gathering ............................................................................................. 68 6.3.1 Ecosystem monitoring .................................................................................................................68 6.4 Quantitative stock assessments, knowledge generation, and advice ................................. 70 6.4.1 Climate-considered stock assessment models .........................................................................70 6.4.2 Climate vulnerability of fisheries ................................................................................................76 6.4.3 Climate forecasts and projections .............................................................................................78 6.4.4 Climate change research .............................................................................................................81 6.5 Decision-making ...................................................................................................................... 81 6.6 Implementation of tools & actions ......................................................................................... 86 6.6.1 Spatial management ...................................................................................................................86 6.6.2 Dynamic management ................................................................................................................87 6.6.3 Integration of approaches and solutions ..................................................................................89 7. Climate change integration into Canadian fisheries management .................................... 90 7.1 Overview ................................................................................................................................... 90 7.2 The management structure of Canada’s fisheries ................................................................ 91 7.3 Methods ................................................................................................................................... 93 7.3.1 Data ...............................................................................................................................................93 7.3.2 Analyses .........................................................................................................................................94 7.4 Results .....................................................................................................................................
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