HOOVER DIGEST RESEARCH + OPINION ON PUBLIC POLICY SUMMER 2021 NO. 3 THE HOOVER INSTITUTION • STANFORD UNIVERSITY The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace was established at Stanford University in 1919 by Herbert Hoover, a member of Stanford’s pioneer graduating class of 1895 and the thirty-first president of the United States. Created as a library and repository of documents, the Institution enters its second century with a dual identity: an active public policy research center and an internationally recognized library and archives. The Institution’s overarching goals are to: » Understand the causes and consequences of economic, political, and social change » Analyze the effects of government actions and public policies » Use reasoned argument and intellectual rigor to generate ideas that nurture the formation of public policy and benefit society Herbert Hoover’s 1959 statement to the Board of Trustees of Stanford University continues to guide and define the Institution’s mission in the twenty-first century: This Institution supports the Constitution of the United States, its Bill of Rights, and its method of representative government. Both our social and economic systems are based on private enterprise, from which springs initiative and ingenuity. Ours is a system where the Federal Government should undertake no governmental, social, or economic action, except where local government, or the people, cannot undertake it for themselves. The overall mission of this Institution is, from its records, to recall the voice of experience against the making of war, and by the study of these records and their publication to recall man’s endeavors to make and preserve peace, and to sustain for America the safeguards of the American way of life. This Institution is not, and must not be, a mere library. But with these purposes as its goal, the Institution itself must constantly and dynamically point the road to peace, to personal freedom, and to the safeguards of the American system. By collecting knowledge and generating ideas, the Hoover Institution seeks to improve the human condition with ideas that promote opportunity and prosperity, limit government intrusion into the lives of individuals, and secure and safeguard peace for all. HOOVER DIGEST RESEARCH + OPINION ON PUBLIC POLICY SUMMER 2021 • HOOVERDIGEST.ORG THE HOOVER INSTITUTION STANFORD UNIVERSITY HOOVER DIGEST RESEARCH + OPINION ON PUBLIC POLICY SUMMER 2021 • HOOVERDIGEST.ORG The Hoover Digest explores politics, economics, and history, guided by the HOOVER scholars and researchers of the Hoover Institution, the public policy research DIGEST center at Stanford University. The opinions expressed in the Hoover Digest are those of the authors and PETER ROBINSON do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Hoover Institution, Stanford Editor University, or their supporters. As a journal for the work of the scholars and CHARLES LINDSEY researchers affiliated with the Hoover Institution, the Hoover Digest does not Executive Editor accept unsolicited manuscripts. BARBARA ARELLANO The Hoover Digest (ISSN 1088-5161) is published quarterly by the Hoover Senior Publications Manager, Institution on War, Revolution and Peace, 434 Galvez Mall, Stanford University, Hoover Institution Press Stanford CA 94305-6003. Periodicals Postage Paid at Palo Alto CA and additional mailing offices. HOOVER POSTMASTER: Send address changes to the Hoover Digest, Hoover Press, INSTITUTION 434 Galvez Mall, Stanford University, Stanford CA 94305-6003. © 2021 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University THOMAS F. STEPHENSON Chair, Board of Overseers CONTACT INFORMATION SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION SUSAN R. McCAW Comments and suggestions: $30 a year to US and Canada Vice Chair, Board of Overseers [email protected] (international rates higher). (650) 723-1471 CONDOLEEZZA RICE http://hvr.co/subscribe Tad and Dianne Taube Director Reprints: Phone: (877) 705-1878 ERIC WAKIN [email protected] (toll free in US, Canada) Deputy Director, (650) 723-3373 or (773) 753-3347 (international) Robert H. Malott Director Write: Hoover Digest, of Library & Archives Subscription Fulfillment, SENIOR ASSOCIATE PO Box 37005, Chicago, IL 60637 DIRECTORS ON THE COVER CHRISTOPHER S. DAUER KAREN WEISS MULDER Julie Helen Heyneman, a daughter of San Francisco, sailed for Europe in 1891 DANIEL P. KESSLER to immerse herself in art. Heyneman Director of Research would live a full life in pursuit of her ASSOCIATE passion—as painter, teacher, and DIRECTORS writer—but for a brief period during DENISE ELSON the terrible Great War, she also shone SHANA FARLEY as a humanitarian. In 1916, a world away JEFFREY M. JONES from San Francisco, she founded a place COLIN STEWART in London called California House as a ERYN WITCHER TILLMAN refuge for disabled Belgian soldiers. Her (Bechtel Director of Public Affairs) example helped the public understand— and prepare for—the needs of wounded ASSISTANT warriors. See story, Page 224. DIRECTORS KELLY DORAN VISIT HOOVER INSTITUTION ONLINE | www.hoover.org SARA MYERS SHANNON YORK FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL MEDIA DOWNLOAD OUR APP TWITTER @HooverInst Stay up to date on the latest FACEBOOK www.facebook.com/HooverInstStanford analysis, commentary, and news YOUTUBE www.youtube.com/HooverInstitution from the Hoover Institution. ITUNES itunes.apple.com/us/itunes-u/hoover-institution Find daily articles, op-eds, blogs, INSTAGRAM https://instagram.com/hooverinstitution audio, and video in one app. Summer 2021 HOOVER DIGEST DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS 9 The Twilight of Human Rights? Today’s deepest challenge to the values of the West comes from China, which is moving to sweep away the very idea of individual rights. By Charles Hill 15 Charles Hill: Grand Strategist The late Hoover fellow was a genius at weaving “giant ideas” into analyses of the problems, and the promise, of the world. By Harrison Smith 19 Exposing the Kleptocrats Ten steps to combat the mega-corruption that saps national wealth and smothers democracy. By Larry Diamond 27 Courage, not Cancellation Free speech means citizens are willing both to question and to be questioned. By Peter Berkowitz THE ECONOMY 32 We Are the Builders Politicians will not “build back better” with yet more vast packages of ineffective centralized programs. They must learn what communities want and need—and let them fulfill those wants and needs. By Raghuram G. Rajan HOOVER DIGEST • Summer 2021 3 37 The Shape of Recovery The second half of this year is likely to bring a surge in pent- up demand, especially in high-value service industries. By Michael Spence 41 Borrowed Time The United States was already on a dangerous debt binge even before the pandemic. More reckless spending will overwhelm investment, growth, and job creation. By George P. Shultz, John F. Cogan, and John B. Taylor 47 How to Kill Opportunity There’s no doubt: the minimum wage deprives low-skilled workers—especially young people—of an essential foothold on the job market. By David R. Henderson CHINA 53 The High Road The US-China rivalry represents, above all, a difference in values. The United States’ strength springs from its support for an open, multilateral world order. By Elizabeth Economy 64 Better Footing How to grapple with Chinese ambitions—military, economic, and ideological. By H. R. McMaster 4 HOOVER DIGEST • Summer 2021 72 Taiwan as Trigger American presidents come and go, but Beijing has never once taken its eyes off Taiwan, or ceased demanding it. By Niall Ferguson 85 Freedom’s Struggle With China increasingly dominant, nations in the Indo-Pacific seek their own paths between socialism and capitalism. By Michael R. Auslin AFRICA 94 Ethiopia Unravels Fresh conflict in the Horn of Africa is more than a humanitarian crisis—it’s a blow to regional security and US interests. By Jendayi Frazer and Judd Devermont THE MIDDLE EAST 98 Studying War No More The Abraham Accords established at least a nascent Arab- Israeli amity. Now educational programs can nurture it. By Peter Berkowitz NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION 103 George Shultz’s Vision The late statesman dreamed of eliminating the danger of nuclear weapons. His allies continue striving to make that dream a reality. By William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger, and Sam Nunn IMMIGRATION 108 Getting It Right The push for open borders ignores the hard questions. How to ask—and answer—them. By Richard A. Epstein HOOVER DIGEST • Summer 2021 5 113 Predators and Prey Rising sexual violence in Europe—linked to young immigrant men—threatens women’s hard-earned rights. It must not be ignored. By Ayaan Hirsi Ali EDUCATION 120 How Schools Can Turn the Page At a time of countless programs for reform, Clint Bolick and Kate J. Hardiman champion reforms that will work. By Jonathan Movroydis 128 A Republic, if You Can Teach It A new effort to teach civics education holds real promise—if our hoary K–12 system can be persuaded to try it. By Chester E. Finn Jr. NATIONAL SECURITY 131 This Is No Time to Stumble The Biden administration gets no honeymoon from geopolitical dangers. By Victor Davis Hanson CALIFORNIA 138 Tarnished Gold Yesterday’s state of limitless promise is today’s state of smoke and mirrors—and broken promises. By Peter Robinson 6 HOOVER DIGEST • Summer 2021 NATIVE AMERICANS 146 Hope and Change in Indian Country? President Biden’s new interior secretary, Deb Haaland, has a chance to fix the system that leaves many of America’s first people poor and powerless. But will she take it? By Terry L. Anderson INTERVIEWS 153 The Road to Selfdom To Matthew Crawford, author of Why We Drive, the open road symbolizes the vanishing realm of human autonomy and skill. By Russ Roberts 164 The Man Who Wouldn’t Be Canceled The mob came for Laurence Fox, a brilliant British actor, after he made some mildly controversial remarks on the BBC. Refusing to apologize and vanish, Fox then launched a quixotic counterattack: a campaign for mayor of London. By Peter Robinson 175 “Turning People into Americans” Hoover fellow Niall Ferguson is optimistic that future immigrants will find their “kaleidoscopic identity” within the American experiment, just as so many others have done.