Pakistan Equity| Strategy Jul 2, 2018 REP-057 AC Nabeel Khursheed Best Local Brokerage House
[email protected] Brokers Poll 2011-14, 2016-17 Tel: +9221-35303330 Topline Securities, Pakistan www.jamapunji.pk Best Local Brokerage House 2015-16 Table of Contents Executive Summary ------------------------------------ 3 Election Outcome - Who Will Form the Next Government? ------------------------------------ 5 Pakistan’s Parliament Structure and Past Elections ------------------------------------ 20 Top Three Political Parties of Pakistan ------------------------------------ 28 5-Year Performance of Top 3 Political Parties ------------------------------------ 51 Politics of Electables and Political Engineering ------------------------------------ 69 Past Coalition Governments and Market Reaction ------------------------------------ 74 Appendix ------------------------------------ 78 PakistanHonda Atlas Politics Cars (HCAR) 2 Executive Summary . Pakistan will be gearing up for its second consecutive democratic government transition later this month. Observant and political experts term the upcoming polls (on July 25, 2018) as one of the most toughest and tightly contested elections in Pakistan’s history. Based on our analysis, we believe that there will be a neck to neck contest between PML-N and PTI. However, there is 75% probability that the new coalition Govt. will be led by PTI along with independents and smaller parties. Since it will be a close contest, there is a 25% likelihood that PML-N forms a coalition Govt. with PPP and other parties and independents. In a poll of leading Corporates and Fund Managers, 77% believe PTI to lead the next govt. and were equally split between PML-N and PTI as to who will get the highest number of seats. In another poll of top political experts, 75% of respondents were of the view that PTI will form the next govt.