EPP Party Barometer April 2021 The Situation of the European People’s Party in the EU

(as of: 19 April 2021)

prepared by Dr. Olaf Wientzek

(Graphic template: Janine www.kas.de Höhle, HA Kommunikation, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung) Summary and latest developments (I)

• The EPP family has come out as the strongest political family in polls in 11 countries; the Party of European Socialists (PES) in 7 (if you add Slovakia’s Hlas, which is not yet officially a PES member); Liberals/Renew in 2; far-right populists (ID) in Italy and Finland; the Eurosceptic/national conservative ECR in Poland. In Hungary and Latvia (combined), independent parties are front-running. No polls in terms of the /elections have taken place in France since the EP elections. In the , several parties compete in electoral alliances. If STAN (EPP group but not EPP party) is counted as part of the EPP family, the EPP, at 22.5%, would be just ahead of ANO (22%), which is part of ALDE. • The picture is similar if we look at the strongest single party and not the largest party family: Then the EPP is ahead in 11 countries; the Socialists in 7; the Liberals in 3; far- right populists (ID) in 3; the ECR in one country; is in the lead in Hungary. • 9 of the 27 heads of state and government in the are currently members of the EPP family (10 of 27 if you count the Slovak prime minister, whose party belongs to the EPP group but not the EPP party); 7 heads of state and government are members of the Liberals/Renew; 6 of the Social Democrats/Socialists; one the Eurosceptic conservatives; 3 are formally independent. • In many countries, the margin of the leading party family is extremely small (especially in Belgium, Latvia, Lithuania, Ireland, Italy, Finland, Sweden, Spain). Summary and latest developments (II)

• In the Czech Republic (elections in 2021), the EPP parties KDU-CSL, TOP09 remain in the mid- single digits; STAN (EPP group, not EPP party) stands at 12%. The parties take part in elections as part of (different) party alliances. • In Poland, the EPP parties cannot benefit from the relative weakness of the PiS. • In Slovakia, approval for OL’aNO, the party of the Slovak prime minister (EPP group in the European Parliament but not [yet] an EPP member), has declined substantially compared with the election and stands now at around 10%. • In Cyprus (elections in 2021), DISY is still the front runner, with a medium-sized lead, despite slight losses. • In Romania, the PNL only placed second behind the Socialists in the December 2020 elections but was able to form a government. • In the Netherlands (elections in March 2021), the Christian Democrats attained 9.5% and thus undercut their own expectations (previously: 12.4%) • In Bulgaria, the GERB (elections in April 2021) was without any doubt the strongest force; yet the outlook for forming a government is considered uncertain. Other EPP parties are represented through competing electoral alliances in Parliament. • A bright sign is the rise of the Danish Conservatives, who are the biggest opposition party in polls, at approx. 15%-16%. • The “COVID-19 management bonus” for government parties, which became apparent in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2020 in two-thirds of the EU countries, seems to have faded away. Consequences of Fidesz exit

• With Fidesz leaving (after two years suspended EPP membership), the EPP party family will lose one head of government in the European Council and a member party that has been consistently above 40% in the polls for many years. • Despite the departure of Fidesz, the EPP has another member party in Hungary: the KDNP (exact figures in terms of popularity cannot be determined owing to the alliance with Fidesz). This means the EPP meets the claim it set itself, namely to have member parties in all EU member states. • In the European Parliament, the EPP group has lost 12 representatives, who are now without any parliamentary faction. Fidesz’s departure from the group also impacts the seat forecast in the event of EP elections. – According to polls and taking in consideration the special features of EP elections, if elections to the European Parliament were held today, the EPP group would win +/- 165 seats (23.4%), with a likely range of 156-176 seats, thus keeping its title as the largest parliamentary group. – The Socialists (S&D) would have 130-140 seats; Liberals (Renew) 85-95; the Green Party (Green/EFA) approx. 70; Communists (GUE-NGL) approx. 50. – Around 150 members would see themselves politically to the right of the EPP. The formation of a single group is extremely unlikely in view of personal and substantive incompatibilities. • One parliamentary group composed of Lega, PiS and Fidesz as well as other ECR parties (but without FDI, AfD, RN, AUR) would get approx. 80 seats and could compete with the Liberals for 3rd place. • For the EPP, there is a limited possibility of compensating for the loss of seats owing to the exit of Fidesz by partnering with moderate, independent forces. Ideological overlaps can be found with Szymon Holownia’s Polska 2050 party (in polls, usually the second most powerful force at around 20%). Picture credits: fotolia.com Strongest political family in national polls (April 2021) Sweden

Finland EPP family (shaded: membership suspended)

PES/S&D Family (Social Democrats, Socialists) ACRE/ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives) Estonia ALDE + Renew Family (Liberals)

Far-right populists (ID) Latvia Misc. populists Denmark GUE/NGL (far-left populists) Lithuania The Greens/EFA Ireland Netherlands Independents Poland No parliamentary polls since *Hlas is not yet a PES member but the EP election the party largely consists of former Germany Smer representatives, including Slovakia* former prime minister Pellegrini

Belgium Czech Republic** ** In the Czech Republic, several parties take part in the election in the form of electoral alliances. If STAN (EPP group) is Luxembourg included in the EPP family, the EPP, at Austria Hungary 22.5%, would be just ahead of ALDE, which 4. Romania belongs to ANO (22%) France Slovenia Italy Croatia Bulgaria 2.

1.

Portugal Spain Greece

Cyprus Malta C reated by: Olaf Wientzek Picture credits: fotolia.com Strongest single party in national polls (April 2021) Sweden

Finland EPP Family

PES/S&D Family (Social Democrats, Socialists) ACRE/ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives) Estonia ALDE + Renew Family (Liberals)

Far-right populists (ID et al.) Latvia Misc. populists Denmark GUE/NGL (far-left populists) Lithuania The Greens/EFA Ireland Netherlands Independents Poland

Germany Slovakia* *Hlas is not yet a PES member but the party largely consists of former Belgium Czech Republic Smer representatives, including former prime minister Pellegrini Luxembourg Austria Hungary 4. Romania France Slovenia Italy Croatia Bulgaria 2.

1.

Portugal Spain Greece

Cyprus Malta C reated by: Olaf Wientzek Strength of the largest EPP partner party in each country Picture credits: fotolia.com Election results of the largest EPP member party at the last Sweden (2022) national parliamentary election 19.84

as a percentage/next expected election date in brackets Finland (2023) 17.00

Legend Estonia (2023) 0 – 5% 11.41 Latvia (2022) 5 – 10% 6.69 10 – 15% Denmark (2023) 15 – 20% Lithuania (2024) 6.60 25.77 20 – 25% Ireland (2025) 20.90 Netherlands (2025) 25 – 30% 9.50 30 – 35% Poland (2023) 27.40** 35 – 40% Germany (2021) Slovakia (2024) 40 – 50% 32.90 5.80 4.60 (25.02) Belgium (2024) Czech Republic (2021) 8.89 Luxembourg (2023) Hungary* (2022) 28.31 *In 2018, Fidesz was still a full 4. 49.27 Romania (2024) member of the EPP France (2022) 25.19 22.23 Italy (2023) 14.01 Croatia (2024) 37.26 Bulgaria (2025) 2. 26.18 1. Austria (2024) Portugal (2023) Spain (2023) 37.46 27.80 Greece (2023) 20.82 Slovenia (2022) 39.85 24.92 Cyprus (2021) Malta (2022) 30.69 43.68 Created by: Olaf Wientzek Picture credits: fotolia.com Poll ratings of the strongest EPP member parties as of: April 2021

Sweden (Mod.) in percentage; in brackets, initials of the EPP party strongest in the polls 22.80 Finland (KOK) 16.20

Legend

0 – 5% Estonia (IRL) 5.10 5 – 10% Latvia (V) 10 – 15% 15.70 15 – 20% Denmark (DKF) Lithuania (TS-LKD) 20 – 25% 15.20 Ireland (FG) 23.50 25 – 30% 30.00 Netherlands (CDA) 30 – 35% Poland (PO/KO) 35 – 40% 17.74 40 – 50% Germany (CDU/CSU) Slovakia (KDH, (OLANO)) 29.00 ** in the 2017 elections, the KDU-C SL > 50% 6.50 5.70 (9.20) was still the strongest EPP partner party. Belgium*** (CD&V) Czech Republic (TOP09**) In this poll, however, TOP09 is stronger Very recently than the KDU-CSL. held election or no 8.19 poll Luxembourg (CSV) *The KDNP is on the ballot with Hungary* (KDNP) since EP election 25.70 Fidesz; therefore, separate figures 4. Romania (PNL) are not determined France (LR) 21.00 Italy (FI) Croatia (HDZ) 7.50 34.89 Bulgaria (GERB) 2.

1. Austria (ÖVP) Portugal (PSD) Spain (PP) 36.00 27.80 Greece (ND) 24.80 Slovenia (SDS) 41.30 27.70

Cyprus (DISY) Malta (PN) 26.40 Created by: Olaf Wientzek 45.80 Picture credits: fotolia.com Comparison of the strongest EPP parties’ in the April 2021 poll ratings

with the previous national election Sweden +2.96 as a percentage; initials of the strongest EPP party in the polls Finland in bold in brackets; regular in brackets, parties that belong to -0.80 the EPP group but are not members of the EPP

Legend Estonia -6.31 -10 to - 20% Latvia - 5 to - 10% +9.01

- 1 to - 5 % Denmark Lithuania - 1 to + 1% +8.60 Ireland -2.27 + 1 to + 5% +9.10 Netherlands + 5 to + 10 % Poland + 10 to + 20 % -9.66 Germany Slovakia n.a. / -3.90 No polls since Czech Republic +1.10 (-15.82) since election, or Belgium*** +0.70 election took -0.70 place fewer than Luxembourg *The KDNP is on the ballot with six weeks ago -2.61 Hungary* Fidesz; therefore, separate figures 4. Romania are not determined France -4.19 Italy Croatia -6.51 -2.37 Bulgaria 2.

1. Austria Portugal Spain -1.46 +-0 +3.98 Greece Slovenia +1.45 +2.78

Cyprus Malta -4.29 Created by: Olaf Wientzek +2.12 Strength of the EPP family in EU member states Picture credits: fotolia.com Cumulated election results of all EPP parties at the last national parliamentary elections Sweden as a percentage; in brackets, parties that belong to the EPP 26.16 group but are not members of the EPP Finland 20.90

Legend Estonia 0 – 5% 11.41 5 – 10% Latvia 10 – 15% 6.69 Denmark 15 – 20% Lithuania 8.30 20 – 25% Ireland 25.77 25 – 30% 20.90 Netherlands 9.50 (13.90) 30 – 35% Poland United Kingdom 35 – 40% 35.95* Germany 0.00 Slovakia 40 – 50% 32.90 11.11 (16.41) 14.08 (39.10) > 50% Belgium Czech Republic 12.59 Luxembourg Hungary* 28.31 *In 2018, Fidesz was still a full 4. Romania 49.27 member of the EPP France* 35.75 22.23 Italy 15.72 Croatia **EPP parties are in electoral 37.26 Bulgaria** alliances with non-EPP parties in 2. Bulgaria. The results attained by 31.85 these alliances are divided by the 1. number of partners. Austria Portugal Spain 37.46 32.00 Greece 20.82 Slovenia 39.85 34.70 Cyprus Malta 30.69 43.68 Created by: Olaf Wientzek Picture credits: fotolia.com Cumulated poll ratings of all EPP parties in national polls as of: April 2021

Sweden (2022) as a percentage; initials of the strongest EPP party in the polls in bold in brackets; regular in brackets, parties that belong to 28.00 the EPP group but are not members of the EPP Finland (2023) 20.00

Legend Estonia (2023) 0 – 5% 5.10

5 – 10% Latvia (2022) 15.70 10 – 15% Denmark (2023) 15 – 20% Lithuania (2024) 16.50 23.50 20 – 25% Ireland (2025) Netherlands (2025) 25 – 30% 30.00

30 – 35% Poland (2023) 23.69 35 – 40% Germany (2021) Slovakia (2024) 40 – 50% 29.00 10.50 (22.50) 11.50 > 50% Belgium*** (2024) Czech Republic (2021) (20.70) 11.21 Luxembourg (2023) *The KDNP is on the ballot with 25.70 Hungary* Fidesz; therefore, separate figures 4. Romania (2020) are not determined France (2022) 30.00 Italy (2023) Croatia (2024) 8.40 34.89 Bulgaria (2025) 2.

1. Austria (2024) Portugal (2023) Spain (2023) 36.00 29.80 Greece (2023) 24.80 Slovenia (2022) 41.30 36.70 Cyprus (2021) Malta (2022) 26.40 Created by: Olaf Wientzek 45.80 Picture credits: fotolia.com Comparison of April 2021 poll results of all EPP parties compared to last national elections (cumulative) Sweden +1.84 Finland as a percentage -0.90 Legend

Estonia -10 to - 20% -6.31 - 5 to - 10% Latvia - 1 to - 5% +9.01

- 1 to + 1% Denmark Lithuania + 1 to + 5% +8.20 -2.27 Ireland + 5 to + 10% +9.10 Netherlands Above + 10% Poland No polls since -12.26 since election, or Germany Slovakia election took place -3.90 fewer than six Belgium*** Czech Republic -2.58 (-18.40) weeks ago -1.38 -0.61 (+6.09)

Luxembourg Austria *The KDNP is on the ballot with Hungary* -2.61 -1.46 Fidesz; therefore, separate figures 4. Romania are not determined France -5.75 Italy Croatia -7.32 -2.37 Bulgaria 2.

1.

Portugal Spain -2.20 +3.98 Greece Slovenia +1.45 +2.00

Cyprus Malta -4.29 Created by: Olaf Wientzek +2.12 The EPP family’s participation in government Picture credits: fotolia.com The participation of EPP family parties EPP family, as at 18 April 2021

Sweden

Government without the participation of an EPP party, but Finland with a representative in the European Council belonging to the EPP family

Parties in the EPP family participating in a government Estonia (from left bottom to right top hatched: possibly outgoing government; participation unclear) Latvia Head of state/government belongs to EPP family Denmark ***The TS-LKD is the largest governing (from left bottom to right top Lithuania*** party; prime minister Simonyte is not hatched: affiliated with a party; however, she possibly outgoing/incoming was the candidate for the office of Ireland prime minister on the part of TS-LKD. government) Netherlands **The party to which Slovakia’s head of Poland government belongs is part of the EPP bloc in the European Parliament but is not part of the EPP party Germany Slovakia**

Belgium Czech Republic

Luxembourg Hungary 4. Romania France

Italy Croatia Bulgaria 2.

1. Austria Portugal Spain Greece Slovenia

Cyprus Malta C reated by: Olaf Wientzek Picture credits: fotolia.com Heads of state or government according to their political family (as of: 18 April 2021)

(the constitutionally stronger position is decisive and – Sweden in the case of EU states – participation in the European Council)

Finland EPP: Christian Democrats, Centre-Right Parties

PES/S&D: Social Democrats & Socialists

ACRE/ECR: Eurosceptic Conservatives Estonia AALDE +Renew (mainly Liberals)

The Greens/EFA Latvia Misc. populists ****President Nauseda is independent, Denmark prime minister Simonyte is not Far-left populists (GUE/NGL) Lithuania*** affiliated with a party but she was the candidate for the office of prime Far-right populists Ireland minister on the part of TS-LKD. Netherlands Independents Poland ** The party of Slovakia’s head of government is part of the EPP group in the European Parliament but is not part Germany Slovakia** of the EPP party *Fidesz’s membership of the EPP was Belgium Czech Republic suspended by both the EPP and Fidesz on 20 March 2019. Luxembourg Hungary 4. Romania France ₁ Italy Croatia

Bulgaria 2.

1. Austria Portugal Spain Greece Slovenia

Cyprus Malta C reated by: Olaf Wientzek Picture credits: fotolia.com The EPP Family in the EU – Which parties belong to the EPP? Sweden Moderaterna (MOD) Kristdemokraterna (KD) Finland Kokoomus (SK) KD

Estonia Latvia (Jauna) Vienotiba

Denmark Lithuania DKF (C) TS-LKD Ireland KD Netherlands CDA Poland PO Germany PSL Slovakia CDU Czech Republic KDH CSU KDU-CSL Belgium Most-Hid TOP 09 CD&V, CDH, CSP² SMK Spolu Luxembourg Hungary CSV 4. KDNP Romania PNL France* Italy PMP Les Républicains Croatia RMDSZ/UDMR SVP HDZ Bulgaria 2. AP GERB 1. UDC Austria BCM PATT DSB Portugal ÖVP (NVP) Spain PpI UDF PSD Greece PP CDS-PP Slovenia SDS ND N.Si SLS Cyprus Malta DISY Created by: Olaf Wientzek PN Notes

* In Poland, the two EPP parties each led alliances that also included non-EPP parties. **In France, no polls for national parliamentary elections have been done since the elections in June 2017. The results refer to the second round of parliamentary elections.

In order to obtain an adequate result at national level, these results were each weighted according to the number of eligible voters (there is compulsory voting). Despite compulsory voting and the relatively similar number of voters at elections in the different regions, small deviations may occur. In Belgium, the CD&V, CSP and CDH partner parties only compete regionally. The results in the individual regions are weighted accordingly. The CSP only competes in European elections. At national elections, it is a part of the CDH since the Belgian parliament is composed according to regions (Flanders, Wallonia, Brussels) and not according to language community. In Luxembourg, polls are conducted regionally. The results are weighted according to the number of voters (there is compulsory voting) in order to calculate a party’s national strength. Despite compulsory voting and the relatively similar number of voters at elections in the different regions, small deviations may occur.

Further notes: In several countries (including Slovenia, Bulgaria and Latvia), undecided and non-voters are included as part of the total sum (100%) in the polls. The poll results are extrapolated accordingly. Example: Party A has 13% in the polls. 30% of respondents will not vote, and 20% of the respondents are undecided. Accordingly, support for Party A is reported to be 26%.

In Germany, the CDU and CSU are not listed as two separate parties owing to the fact they form a single parliamentary bloc and that their poll results are always added together.

In several countries, parties are part of the EPP bloc without belonging to the EPP. Some of them even belong to other party families, for example, CU and 50 Plus in the Netherlands, STAN in Czech Republic and Olano in Slovakia. Their respective results are given in brackets.

Some of the parties in the ACRE family are right-wing populist or have strong right-wing populist elements. As the ACRE family is now (or is for the time being) a mainstream party family, the parties belonging to it are listed as part of the ACRE family and not as “right-wing populist”. By contrast, the “right-wing populist” category contains parties belonging to the ENF or the EFDD Group in the European Parliament, as well as other right-wing populist or right-wing extremist forces.

1. Slide 16: The list usually refers to the heads of government. Heads of State (in the case of a government of a different party) are only indicated (separately) if they are represented in the European Council (the case of Johannis in Romania). In the case of France, no participation of the EPP in the government is indicated since the official EPP party LR is not in the government. 2. Slide 18: The CSP is not a member of the EPP but is part of the EPP group.

Sources for polls: Ipsos (Belgium), Trend (Belgium), Voxmeter (Denmark) Emnid (Germany) Norstat (Estonia), Kantar TNS (Finland), IfoP (France), Pulse/RC (Greece), RedC (Ireland), EMG (Italy), Ipsos (Croatia), Factum (Latvia), Spinter tymai (Lithuania), Sondesfro (Luxembourg), Malta Today (Malta), Ipsos (Netherlands) RA (Austria), Ibris for Rzesczpospolita (Poland), eurosondagem (Portugal), CURS (Romania), Demoskop (Sweden), Focus (Slovakia), Mediana (Slovenia), NC Report (Spain), Kantar (Czech Republic), Zavecz (Hungary), Symmetron (Cyprus)

Contact person Dr. Olaf Wientzek Email: [email protected] / [email protected]