Document of The World Bank
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. 4838 Public Disclosure Authorized PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT
ETHIOPIA SECOND WOLAITA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
CREDIT 486-ET
December 19, 1983 Public Disclosure Authorized
Eastern Africa Public Disclosure Authorized Regional Office
This document has a restricted distribution and may he used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
Name of Currency Ethiopian Birr Year: Appraisal US 1 = 2.07 Birr Intervening US$ 1 = 2.07 Birr Completion US$ 1 = 2.07 Birr
WEIGHTS AND MEASURES (Metric System)
1 hectare (ha) = 2.47 acres (ac) I acre 0.405 ha 1 Kilogram (kg) 2.2 pounds (lb) 1 qUilltdl 100 kg
ABBREVIATIONS
AI = Artificial Insemination AIDB = Agricultural and Industrial Developmnent Bank AIMS = Agricultural Inputs Marketing Service AMC = Agricultural Marketing Corporation CBD = Coffee Berry Disease CMC = Cooperative Marketing Center CPSC = Central Planning Supreme Council lCA - Development Creelit Agreement EPID = Extension and Project Implementation Departmer.t FY = Fiscal Year (Ethiiopian April 8 - April 7) COE = Government of Ethiopia IDA - Initernational Development Association MOA = Ministry of Agriculture MP1' = MSinimum Package Program PA = Peasant Association MOF = Ministry of Finance PCR = Project Completion Report PEBCU = Planning Evaluation anid Budget Control Unit (in WADU) PPAR = Project Performance Audit Report RMEA = Regional Mission in Easterri Africa (of the tWorld Bank) SOE = Statement of Expenditure SLA = Subsidiary Loan Agreement T&V = Training and Visit (system of extension) WADP-I = Wolaita AgricuLltural Development Project I WADP-II = Wolaita Agricu-ltural Development Project II WADU = Wolaita Agricuiltural Development Unit WFCU - Wolamo (Wolaita) Farners Cooperative Union FOR OFFICIALUSE ONLY
ETHIOPIA SSCOND WOLAITA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (CREDIT 486-ET)
PROJECT COMPLETIONREPORT
Table of Contents
Page No.
Preface ...... i Basic Data Sheet ...... ii Highlights ...... iii
I.~BACKGROUND ...... 1 Agricultural Sector ...... 1 Project Background ...... 2
II. PROJECT FORMULATION ...... 2 - Identification and Preparation . . 2 - Objectives and Project Concept ...... 3 - Credit Appraisal, Negotiations and Effectiveness ...... 3 - Project Components 4
III. IMPLEMENTATION ...... 6 - Annual Crop Production ... 6 - Coffee Production ...... 7 - Livestock Production . .. 7 - Soil Conservation ...... *...... 8 - Infrastructure ...... 8 - Cooperatives.. 8 - Management. 8 - Studies ...... *. .... 6..* 9
IV. PROJECT COSTS, FINANCING, PROCUREMENT AND ACCOUNTING 10 - Local Funding .11 - IDA Funding . . . 12 -Procurement ...... 0...... 12 - Accounting ...... 12
V. INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE...... 13 - Performance of the Borrower ...... 13 - Project Management and Staffing ...... 13 - Cooperative Development and Credit ...... 15 - Infrastructural Development ...... 16 -- Road Maintenance ...... 16 - Settlement Schemes ...o...... * 16 - Accounts and Audits .. 17
This document has a restricteddistribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. Content Page No.
VI. PROJECT BENEFITS, FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS.... 17 - Evaluation ...... ,. . * 17 - A-nnual Cropo ...... 18 - Coffee **. *. . .a.* . .*,***. * .*I*...... *. . 19 - Livestock ...... 19 - Soil Conservation ...... 20 - Non-quantifiable Benefits ..... 20
- Management . ...*., ...... O. *. 21. - Financial Analysis ...... 21 - Economic Analysis ...... 23
VII. BANK PERFORMANCE ...... 24 - Identification and Appraisal ...... 24 - Project Supervisions ...... 26 - Performance of Consultants ...... 27
Viii. CONCLUSIONS ...... 27
ANNEXES
Annex 1 Key Indicators of Project Implementation and Performance Annex 2 Calculations of Agricultural Impact and Financial Analysis Annex 3 Disbursements Annex 4 Performance Covenants
Table 1 Implementation Schedule
Map IBRD 10951 First Project Area and Existing Roads ) )Maps pre- Map IBRD 10952 Farming Zones and Administration Boundaries)pared at )appraisal Map IBRD 10953 Prepared Roads and Market Centers ) - i -
ETHIOPIA SECOND WOLAITA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (CREDIT 486-ET)
PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT
PREFACE
This is the Project Completion Report (PCR) for the Second Wolaita Agricultural Development Project in Ethiopia, for which Credit 486-ET was approved in June 1974 for the sum of US$12.0 million. The Credit closing date was extended from June 30, 1980 to December 31, 1981 hut not beyond. A final disbursement was made on December 10, 1982 and a balance of US$379,585 was cancelled effective that date.
The PCR was prepared by a Project Officer in the Bank's Regional Mission in Eastern Africa (RMEA) and a consultant. The PCR is based on the Government's Project Completion Report for the Project and on a review of all relevant reports, correspondence and project documents. Government's PCR was the work of an external consultant who visited the Project area and Addis Ababa for about six weeks. Available Bank-staff previously associated with project supervision offered their comments, and additional comments from the Northern Agriculture Division of the Eastern Africa Regional Projects Department were incorporated in the final report, submitted to OED on August 31, 1983.
The assistance provided by the Government of Ethiopia and that of project staff in Soddo is gratefully acknowledged.
The project was not selected for audit by OED and the PCR was sent to the Borrower on October 3, 1983 for comments; however, none were received. - ii. -
SCO3ND iWILAITA AGRICUJ.tRAL. DVLOaPHENt PfOOJECT (CoRDII 486-f?)
P7kloJC omoHPiRiIOb REPORT BASIC DATA SHeET
tfiY PKIBC _A Appratiel ACtL or Acteal es 2 EApecta'Cion currelnt CEiuats of AppraisaL Estimte1
Total Project Cost (US) million) 17.3 17.9 V 103X Credit Acournt (1S) tellion) 12.0 12.0 1002 Datc Phyaiol Components C*ompleted 6/g0 Incooplete it Proportion Completsd by b.ove dote (2) 1000 9b% economic Rate of WeLrtrp (2) 17t Financial Porforesnco toatitotisnql Pe.f-saae _ Unsatiafsotcry 4/
PROJSCT DAEYs- Or igissl Plan Reviinoes Actal I
Firat Mention in Pile. or Timetable Follno na Project rovernmentf' Application Follov-on Project Negotiattion, t-10/6/74 0 8-13/6/74 Board Approvv1 25/6J74 0 25/b/74 Credit Aftrereont Date 2S/6/74 0 26/6/74 lfectiv-oeno Dote ./ 30/9174 5 4/6/7S Closing D,e. 30/6/SO I 31/12/81
CVMULiATIV' DIISBUSEeNTS- FY75 FY76 PY71 fY78 IY79 FPYO F'Y81 FY82 FY83
Appraisal Rstiuste (Us0$ nillion) 1 4 3.8 5.3 7.3 9. 7 12.0 - - - Attual (US$ willion) - 1.0 2.2 4.2 5.7 6.8 9.0 9.8 11 .6 Actual as Percentage of Eatineate - 26 42 55 59 57 75 82 97
Oijbersed as ot 10/12/82) USi1 .62 million Cancelled ian at 10/12/82) Us$0.38 toillion
115510N DATA Sent Month/ No. of Day. in Specoiral iono PerforaAnce Types or Item by Year Fersons Fi.ld Seprpacnted 6/ Bating 7/ Trend _/ Problems 9/
Identiifcation - -OS/72 lo/ Preparation 1973 _- _ _ _ _ Appraisal HQ BSIIlf 3 4 27 S,n,e,f - - - Total 27
Pre-cffeCti,eness II/ RMEA 11/74 1 4 a 3 - F,P Soper..si.un I RMEA 05175 1 tO e 2 2 M,F,O Soperv{aio I I RM4EA 11/75 2 S * i 2 1 H,PFO S.parvi.i.n III R1WA 06/76 Ro infoemation S.perviio YITV IWEA 12/76 1 8 a 2 3 M,F,P OSperviaion V ItMEA 05177 1 6 a 2 2 M4,p 3oporvialos VI RMEA 01/78 2 a *,e 2 1 M,T.F Supervisio VII 1vMEA 06/78 2 10 e,2 3 M,T,P Supervision VIII RIEA OZ/79 3 5 e,a,e 2 2 iMT Supervision IX RM'dA 11/79 1 5 * 2 I P,T Supervision X ilMEA 07/80 2 5 e,. 2 1 MNT Supervision XI OiUEA 02181 1 9 a 2 3 M,T,F Sopervi.ioe XII U4MEA 11/81 I 5 a 2 3 M,T,F Total DO
Techoical/Other 4ioaioes Acountets and Audito ItMEA 07/81 1 5 Accesous and Auditv RHEA 11/81 1 2 PIR 12/ iWEA 12/78 2 4 PIR 3MBEA 11/79 1 5
OTHER PROJEiCT DAIrA
Borr.ser Provisinoal Wi'itary Covernoment of Ethiopia Execotiog Age0cy 13/ Wolaita Agricaltural Developeost Unit Fiscal Year of Borroner July 7 - July 6 Preceding Projoct N.o.. Wolseno Agrscuitur.l D-enlepopsot Project Laon Nursber 169-ST Amount (USossillior) 3.5 Loan Agreement Dtet 11/26/69 Fol Iov-on Project L4 / None
1/ Estimated Direct Costs - See Chapter IV. 2/ Some water supplien remain to be cempleted and crop/Iivestock production targets ent achieved. 3/ Inadequote finaneill recording. management ond control. un .tisfsctory accounta and delays in audits. 4/ Higb curnover of senior and middle level staff and key StL! ' vacanciCe; inadeq.ate support and direction fron Ministry ol AgrlceIturc 5/ There ocre eccne.ionmt of offectiveo.on dOta, producing a delay of 9 months fr.o original. 6/ a - Agnlctslturesiisctnonomiet; e 'ageioltor1l f - linansi aByat; tl i - engineer. 7/ 1 -problen free or minor problems; 2 - moderate problems; 3 - major problems. 8/ 1 itmproving; 2 - atatlonary; 3 ' deteriorating. 9/ F -Firncial; P = Political; 0 other (in this case taff'rg probleno related to txibal unrest), N - Managerial; T - Technical . l0/ NuringT i Pervision of preceding project. 11/ Effectinoneso ceo announced just aftor this mission bhi.hbupervised WADP-1 and reviesed pr hhletsbolding-op effect.ienoa of the Credit for WADP-tI. 12/ PR:t ProjIct lsple-menation Sovino. WADP oso also Cth eubjeot of CI12 (Co-tnrY ysplesontatlo R00icc) 13/ Sobeidisry Loan Agreem.nt for prooiaion of oredit to small farmere signed with Agri-clt.rot end Ind.otriol Dteclop,e,nt Bsnk (AIDI). 14/ C,edit 486-ET (WADP-1I) Ie afolloon pvojec. Coneider-tion i- given by COS to incorporate the Wolaici District under the .sbrel o fhetb Minimnm Package Prnject. - iii -
ETHIOPIA SECOND WOLA1TA AGRICULTURALDEVELOPMENT PROJECT CREDIT 4.86-ET
PROJECT co!4PLETION REPORT
IIGHL IGHTS
The project was the Bank Group's ninth lending operation for Agricultural development in Ethiopia. The first Wolamo (later changed to Wolaita) Agricultural Development project concentrated on only two sub-districts with about 6,000 farm famtilies within the Wolamo district and demonstrated the efficacy of improved agricultural inputs provided in conjunction with farmer credit, infrastructure, extension and other services. The rate of farmer participation in the project was better than was originally envisaged, and yield increases resulted in greater cash incomes for a large segment of the rural population in the sub-districts. The project was implementced through the Wolaita Agricultural Development Unit (WADU).
The second phase projeci: commenced in 1975 and sought to (a) increase crop production by providing inputs of improved seed, fertilizer and pesticides on credit, and by encouraging farmers through strengthened agricultural extension to adopt new cropping patterns and to use improved inputs; (b) increase livestock production by cross-breeding local animals with Friesian bulls, improved health services and increased fodder production; (c) develop infrastructure to enable provision of agricultural extension services, soil conservation services, the de'Xivery of inputs, transport of outputs and, improved marketing; and (d) encourage cooperative development as the strategy to ensure continuity of inputs supply and crop marketing and to achieve sustained project impact.
Due to social probLems and unrest in the project area emanating from the revolution in Ethiopia in 1974 and the Land Reform of early 1975 the rate of project implementation and its impact were adversely affected. Political and ethnic conflicts resulted in weak project management which changed six times during the long life of the project (8 years). A high rate of turnover of personnel in senior and middle level positions and overall poor staff discipline were experienced. '-he Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) did not support the project organization, WADIJ, with appropriate senior staff appointments and did not support and supervise the project effectively. The project's financial accounts were poorly naintained throughout. Project management was not effective in taking actions to increase the impact on livestock production or investigate and rectify problems affecting cooperative performance, a key elemestt of the development program. - iv -
The livestock improvement program failed because farmers were not willing to crossbreed their animals with Friesians because their progeny would require greater management and nutrition and were more vulnerable to diseases and parasites. The livestock disease control and prevention program was appropriate and is considered beneficial to the farming community. The soil conservation program was highly successful and large numbers of farmeTs participated in erosion control/prevention efforts 4nd in particular in planting trees for fuel and polewood on highly erodable soils. The project has generally been successful in developing infrastructure, including buildings, roads, bridges and dams. The water supply program, however, suffered a delay of over four years. Maintenance of infrastructurehas been poor due to inadequate recurrent funding and about one-third of the minor roads are now impassable. Construction of tracks and roads also contributed somewhat to gully erosion in susceptible farming areas along these roads, because runoff control structures and revegetation cover were inadequately established.
Project benefits were lower than anticipated and in the last year of the project only some 15,000 farmers, or 16% of appraisal estinates, made use of the input supply system on credit. The main reason for a decline in farner interest in credit packages (peak farmer involvement was 46,000 in 1976177) was an adverse movement of input prices compared to those for cash crops, the substantial subsistence requirements, and farmer ineligibility for credit. The credit default rate had incTeased rapidly, reaching its peak also in 1976/77 and tho project organisation, WADU, was not effective in substantially recouping debts or in pursuing defaulters, although improved trends are indicated for 1979/80 and 1980/81. Determinatiot,of Project impact has been difficult because of a paucity of data due to a lack of systematic monitoring and evaluation. From deducted and available data, a negative rate of return of -1.0% has been reestirnated. Crop production may, however, have been greater than assumed for these calculations because it is clained by MOA authorities that the district is now exporting food grains, while the densely populated district imported food grains before Project impLementation. This is difficult to quantify because some food aid has been made available to low-land areas in drought years.
It is not quite clear what course of action the Bank could have taken in the early stages of project implementation (up to 1978). The project was designed and appraised prior to the revolution of 1974 and, obviously, policies of the new Government were affecting the farming community as well as project management and the civil service at large. Government policies were evolving slowly and in this fluid situation, IDA adopted a wait-and-see attitude. With hindsight, Government should have been prompted more effectively to undertake a major review of the project scope and design, particularly in the late seventies, so that the project would have been assured of full Government comnitment and support.
Following the deterioration of fertilizer and credit use, the applied research component should have focussed on cultivation practices which farmers could adopt to increase their production without the use of inputs (mainly -v fertilizers and improved seeds). The extension service, although it commendably adopted the Training and Visit (T&V) system of extension in the last two seasons, was not effective in transmitting the limited available information that did not involve the use of expensive inputs. Farming systemns research was not undertaken although local systems are complex and require more detailed attention. Agro-economic and socio-economic data were not available to make appropriate management decisions on crop and livestock production strategies.
From the above and the PCR the major lessons from this project experience can therefore be formulated as follows:
- under dramatically changed circumstances a major review of project scope and design seems to be called for (paras. 3.11, 7.04, 7.09 and 8.04);
- project design clearly reflects the dilemma between continuity in project implementation and thorough evaluation of earlier experiences (paras. 2.01 and 7.01); and
- the continuation with a design of an intensive agricultural development project while a strategy of a minimum package approach was already being implemented (para. 8.04). - 1 -
ETHIOPIA SECOND WOLAITA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (CREDIT 486-ET)
PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT
Y. Background
Agricultural Sector
1.01 Ethiopia's agricultural sector accounts for 46% of GDP and about 90% of export earnings and provides a livelihood to 80% of the population. Agricultural growth, at 1.8% per year since 1974/75 has not kept pace with the population growth rate of 2.8%. Coffee, the major export commodity is almost entireLy produced by smallholders and accounts for 70-75% of export earnings. Major food crops are teff, barley, maize, sorghum and wheat. Livestock is important in numbers but low in production due to feed and water constraints and health hazards; it contributes about 20% to the total agricultural output. 3tate Farms and settlements, established after the 1974/75 revolution and subsequent reforms, are only minor contributors to agricultural production. Smallholder farmers have an intensive crop and livestock production in the highlands and cattle, sheep and goats production under semi-arid and arid range conditions in the lowlands.
1.02 The functional organisation unit in rural areas is the Peasant Association (PA), each of which covers a minimum area of 800 hectares of cultivated and grazing land. There are also PAs for pastoralists. The 25,000 PAs with a membership in excess of 7 million farmers are organized into Service and Producers' Cooperatives. There are nearly 4,000 Service Cooperatives in Ethiopia, while only 54 Producers' Cooperatives have been registered, although many more (about 1,000) have been prepared, but have not met registration requirements. The principle of Producers' Cooperatives is the collectivisation of land. draft animals and implements. Service Cooperatives provide essential goods and basic implements through cooperative shops but have not functioned well in carrying out their other roles of developing the use of storage facilities, providing inputs at favorable prices to their members and developing agro-industries.
1.03 The Government's agricultural development effort, focussing on the cooperatives and associations as instruments, has been in force since the revolution of 1974. Although most development projects are based on the underlying principle of improvement of the individual farmer the Government has, particularly since 1979, laid emphasis on its policy of communal development through Producer Cooperatives, which obtain preferential treatment in terms of production credit and input supplies.
1.04 The major feature of the agricultural development policy since the revolution has been to increase food crop production towards achieving a higher degree of self-sufficiency. The actual results, however, have been that in the period 1974-78 food grain production has been approximately maintained but the marketed output has fallen back due - 2 - t) rural population increases and higher per capita consumption. A 10-year Perspective Plan, which includes the agricultural sector is currently under preparation by the Central Planning Supreme Council (CPSC). Governrnentpriorities are expected to be:
(a) continued emphasis on increasing food crop production; (b) multiplications of production cooperatives to raise the production of the small farmer sector; (c) development of the country's scientific and technological capability as c basis for increasing agricultural productioni; (d) protection and development of natural resources; (e) development of livestock; and (f) increase of agricultural exports and of the raw material base for processing.
Project Background
1.05 The first significant agricultural development projects were undertaken in Ethiopia in the nid-1960s with the main emphasis on comprehensive projects designed to develop limited areas through intensive applications of inputs such as improved seeds, fertilizers and other agro-chemicals. The first Wolaita (then Wolamno)Agricultural Development Project (WADP-I) was appraised in 1968, became effective in April 1970 and was completed 18 months ahead of schedule in June 1974. This first project was successful in demonstrating the efficiency of increased agricultural inputs in conjunction with farmer credit, infrastructure, extension and other services. Farmer participation was far better than anticipated. A lowland settlement component was also satisEactorily implemented. toth landlords and tenants benefitted significantly from the coTnprehensiveagricultural development program. Produce marketing using private traders was preferred to sale through cooperatives because of convenience, earlier payments and higher prices. Livestock production and coffee marketing components were the least successful Project components.2!
1.06 This PCR was prepared in Kay 1982 with the assistance of an RMEA consultant who prepared a project evaluation report and a proposal for continued services of the Wolaita Agricultural Development Unit (WADU) for the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) in Sthiopia. The consultant was in Ethiopia for six weeks in Novetaberand December 1981.
II. Project Formulation
2.01 Identification and Preparation: Because of the success of WADP-I, which covered only two subdistricts of the Wolaita district, the Government of Ethiopia (GOE) requested IDA in 1973 to assist in the preparation and financing of a second phase project which would incorporate all Wolaita subdistricts and include over 70,000 farmers, compared to 10,000 fanmers under the first phase. MOA prepared the project with assistance of RMEA. Although the Government initially preferred a project which would concentrate on the distribution of farm
1/ PPAR, Wolamo First Agricultural Development Project (Credit 169-ET), OED Report No. 2570 dated June 28, 1979. - 3R -
inputs on credit to smallholders ! it did agree to a comprehensive area development approach proposed during, identification. Government's initial objecti3n to another comprehensive area developmont project was based on the fact that khe heavy reliance on extension and other Government services was not expected to be replicabl.e in other areas of Et jiop ia.
2.02 Objectives and Project Concept: The main objective was to increase crop and livestock prodaction through the provisioti of inputs on credit where needed, and to increase livestock in the district through crossbreeding and animal health programs. These objectives were to be achieved through the expansion of WADU's extension, technical and administrative services and througlh support for cooperatives. Soil erosion problems in the district would be addressed througlh a soil conservation program. Required social infrastructure was to be provided through upgrading rural roads, expanding rturalwater supplies, and providing assistance to rural artisans.
2.03 Credit Appraisal, Negotiations and Effectiveness: The project was appraised in October and November 1973. Because of IDA involvement in Project preparation, project design and in particular manageiment arrangements were mostly a continuation of the first project. However, at negotiations ir.May 1974, several changes were agreed between IDA and Government representatives:
(a) the implementing agency was to be the Extension and Project Implementation Department (EPID) in MOA and not WADU as under tthefirst project (WADU would come under the direction of EPID); (b) the Agricultural and Industrial Development Bank (AIDB) was added as an onLending agency for the provision of seasonal credit through cooperatives and WADU; (c) WJADUwas required to adopt acceptable project evaluation guidelines; (d) specific local fund allocations for road maintenance were deleted; and (e) IDA approval required before the appointment of seven internationally recruited staff was changed to an agreement for corLsultationwith IDA before appointment of six qualified and experienced staff in specific positions.
IDA agreed to these changes because they conforiuedwith the objectives of the project and they ensure continuity from the first project.
2.04 Board approval was obtained on June 25, 1974 but Credit Effectiveness was not declared until June 4, 1975 following five postponements. Conditions of Credit Effectiveness could only be slowly resolved because of the revolution in 1974. -4-
These delays were due to:
- a slow demarcation of settlement areas and granting of leases to landholders; l/ - 1rte submission of the subsidiary loan agreement between Government and the Agricultural and Industrial Development Bank (AIDB) for onlending to farmers; - slow preparation of the agreement between AIDB and EPID for the collection of credit and distribution of inputs ty WADU; - conclusion of an agreement between AIDB and the Wolaita Farmers Cooperative Union (WFCU) for the provision of credit to farmers; - slow completion of legal formalities for the incorporation of WFCU; and - late recruitment of some senior staff.
Altogether, five extensions to the effectiveness deadline were necessary before the credit was finally declared effective on June 4, 1975 (9 months delay). IDA had waived the lease condition, accepting a Government assurance that settlers' rights would be protected under the Land Proclamation Act of April 29, 1975.
2.05 Project Components: Under WADP-II, the following specific interventions would be undertaken to ensure that some 73,000 farmers in year 5 and 100,000 farmers in year 9 would be provided with the extension, technical and administrative services of WADU so that production targets and other project objectives could be achieved:
(1) improved agricultural and livestock extension services through demonstrations with fertilizers and improved seed to farmer groups by some 200 extension agents in year 5 (ratio of about 1:500); (2) extended soil conservation program on about 14,200ha per year through contour plowing, gully stabilization and land rehabilitation as well as tree plantings on badly eroded areas from 14 small nurseries; (3) expanded home economics service by about 42 field workers with supporting staff and equipment; (4) cooperative development through the establishment of an additional 39 Cooperative Marketing Centers (CMC) which would be responsible for the distribution of inputs, credit administration and the marketing of produce. Until formal registration, (expected 3 years after the establishment) CMCs were to be owned and operated by WADU, when operating costs would be gradually assumed by the cooperative members, while construction costs would be shared between WADU and farmers. The WFCU would provide accounting, marketing and other support services and would also handle all credit to cooperatives previously undertaken by WADU;
1/ Condition of the first project which was subsequently made a condition of Project effectiveness of the second project due to non-fulfillment. - 5 -
(5) provision of seasonal credit at an interest rate of 1% per month for up to 11 months with farmers paying a downpaymont of 25% of the value of inputs; (6) livestock development through an extended cattle crossbreeding (50,000 cattle per annum) and animal health program, pasture improvement and fodder production through an expanded livestock extension service. A poultry upgrading program for production of imported cockerels and buildings and facilities for rearing Friesian bulls would be established. Vaccines and drugs for vaccination campaigns and health services throughout the project area and increased diagnostic support services would be provided, (veterinary drugs were to be made available on credit). Establislhmentof a l,OOOha livestock holding ground and a primary livestock market to handle the incremental annual offtake of 14,000 head at full project development; (7) provision of WADU facilities through the construction of a headquarter building, a water supply to staff quarters and offices and the expansion of the workshop; (8) construction of 366km of minor roads and 235km of tracks; (9) provision of rural water supplies to about 60,000 families; (10) assistance to rural artisans through training and the provision of tools and equipment; (11) expanded crop trial program through the provision of stores and offices and equipment at 6 trial sites to allow crop diversification work, fertilizer trials and fodder crop reasearch; (12) improved coffee cultivation program to 5,000 farners (by year 5) through improved extension services, coffee stumping demonstrations and fertilizer trial work; (13) special consultancy studies for:
(a) monitoring the soil conservation program to provide data for a more extensive program of erosion control in Ethiopia; (b) determining the suitability of available land for further settlement in the district; and (c) the control and use of ranching land in the district; and
(14) improve WADU's organisational efficiency.
2.06 The Appraisal report included the international recruitment of seven senior staff: Project Director and Deputy Director of WADU, and Heads of WADU's Extension and Training, Marketing and Credit divisions and Cooperative Developments, Artificial Insemination and Animal Health Section, and the Head of the Planning and Evaluation Unit. This requirement was in response to the senior staff problems experienced under WADP-1. During negotiations, however, it was agreed that EPID would cause WADU to provide adequate and appropriately qualified and experienced staff, following consultation with IDA (Section 4.01 of DCA).
2.07 Although efforts to increase livestock production were not successful under the first project, similar, but more ambitious - 6 -
crossbreeding, animal health and poultry programs, were proposed under WADP-II. Coffee marketing also had not been successful undlerWADP-I and a different strategy, to increase coffee production through stumping and pruning of old trees, disease control and new plantings with considerable extension input was proposed.
III. Implementation
3.01 Project activities commenced in the 1975/76 budget year, commencing July 7, 1975, with a reduced local budget, which allowed some infrastructure construction activities mainly roads and soil conservation works. Details of project achievements for each WADU division and unit for the period 1974/75 to 1980/81 are provided in the summary tables in Annex I.
Annual Crop Production
3.02 There was an initial surge in the number of farmers obtaining improved seeds and fertilizers, mostly on credit. The number of participating farmers increased from 7,826 in 1974/75 to 46,151 in 1976/77, partly as a result of the increased number of eligible farmers following Land Reform. After this initial success the number of participating farmers declined gradually to 15,154 in 1980/81 despite an increasingly active extension service which had adopted a modified but poorly supervised and executed T&V system of extension with regular visits to farmer groups. The decline in use of inputs, which were successfully used in WADP-I, was mainly due to inadequate benefit-cost ratios from the use of fertilizers and a high degree of ineligibility for credit by Peasant Associations (PA) and thus all their members, because of the credit rule under which farmers could not receive further credit until 95% of the outstanding amount was repaid by the PAs.
3.03 The table below provides the number of farmers utilizing inputs as compared with appraisal targets.
Projected and Actual Farmer Participation
Appraisal Achievement Year Projections Actual X
1974/75 18,700 7,826 41.9 1975/76 30,400 32,107 105.6 1976/77 46,800 46,151 98.6 1977/78 60,800 23,837 39.2 1978/79 72,600 24,415 33.6 1979/80 84,200 21,963 26.1 1980/81 95,000 15,154 16.0 1981/82 101,700 1982/83 106,700 3.04 The project only had an impact on the production of maize, teff and cotton. There is no data to suggest that inputs were used on other crops and also improved crop varieties were not available. Projected and actual crop yields are presented in the following tables:
Projected and Actual Crop Yields
Yield with Yield without Actual fertilizer Actual Crop Improvements Yield seed, Yield Appraisal (Estimated)!! pesticides (Estimated)l/ (kg/ha) (kg/ha) Appraisal (kg/ha) (kg/ha)
Maize 800 1,500 2,200 2,000 (4 ,oDo)2/ Teff 350 450 1,000 650 (l,000) Wheat 900 1,800 Barley 900 1,800 Sorghum 500 1,300 Cotton 100 250 600 500 (1.000) Chillies 200 500 'laricot Beans 500 1,000 Field Peas 600 1,200 Irish Potatoes 5000 10,000 Ginger 500 1,000 Coffee 300 600
Coffee Production
3.05 The Coffee improvement program was partly successful; farmers were reluctant to take the drastic steps of stumping old trees but some pruning and stumpings were, however, carried out. Releases of coffee berry disease (CBD) resistant seedlings were made in later Project years. Survival rates of planted CBD resistant seedlings were poor in adverse weather in 1980 and 1981.
3.06 Although results from the coffee improvement program have not been monitored, research data of doubtful accuracy indicate that yields of stumped trees increase by 0.5 to 2.0kg of sun-dried coffee per tree. Under the project about 159,000 trees were either stumped or pruned and 29,210 trees resistant to Coffee Berry Disease (CBD) were distributed (omitting the large number of seedlings which were drought-killed).
Livestock Production
3.07 Cattle: In general, the cattle cross-breeding program was a failure. Only 2,896 live covers and 389 inseminations were achieved during the project against appraisal estimates of 20,000 annually, of which 75/ by Al. The animal health program, in contrast, was greatly appreciated by farmers. It led to a decrease in cattle mortality which
I/ Estimates by consultant in consultation with WADU. 2/ Average research results are given in brackets. - 8 -
led to increased meat and milk production. The cattle growth-rate was about 4% during the period 1974/75 to 1978/79 from a base population of 550,000 animals to presently about 780,000 animals.
3.08 Poultry: The cockerel exchange programnoperated for 4 years in an effort to upgrade local stock and to increase meat and egg production. Although this component had a high potential for success only limited numbers of cockereLs could be exchanged (3,412 birds). This was due to the high mortality rate of day-old and 3-week old chickens during transport from Addis to Soddo (6 hour journey at least) and the difficulties experienced in operating the late acquired incubator (electricity failures). Benefits of this program were not included in the economic return calculations since these were negligible and not quantified.
3.09 Soil Conservation activities were executed with enthusiasm by the responsible section head and staff, and they were able to motivate farmers. Physical targets for contouring and bunding, drainage of low lying lands and tree planting were exceeded and are highly visible throughout the district. Some 31,500ha of land benefitted from contouring and bunding, some 6,120ha were drained and almost 4,000ha of land was afforested.
3.10 Infrastructure was generally completed within the time frame set in the development schedule at appraisal. A country-wide shortage of materials in the early project years delayed construction of buildings. Delays in tendering and contract award and a slow rate of construction by the parastatal, the Ethiopian Construction Corporation, resulted in the late completion of WADU headquarters at wuore than double envisaged costs. Road construction exceeded targets, but the construction of some roads and also road maintenance of a considerable road mileage by both WADU and the farming community has been below acceptable standards. The large cattle market and a large cattle holding ground envisaged at appraisal were not constructed because they were found to be unnecessary. There were considerable delays in the provision of water supplies to some settlement areas and villages and the number of households reached was only 32.4% of the appraisal target.
3.11 Cooperatives: There are now 55 Service and 17 Producer Cooperatives established, aad most of these were provided with the required facilities. WADU secretaries were posted to each cooperative to assist in managing the societies, but the cooperatives failed to be successful as produce marketing bodies because they attained insufficient farmer produce, mostly because they offered lower prices than local traders. The management committees were also not able to assume full administrative responsibilities for credit administration, input supplies and produce marketing, mainly because WADU failed to train farmers in cooperative management.
3.12 Mana&gement: WADU produced detailed work plans with budgets and quarterly, half yearly and annual reports. However, these were often prepared late. Detailed physical achievements of each division, section and unit were provided and these were compared with targets set in the annutalwork plans. Unfortunately, this documentation of physical targets displaced the more important need for monitoring and evaluating the - 9 -
impact of project activities on agricultural production and on economic and social conditions in the district. Although some random crop sampling surveys were conducted each year, the methods used and the lack of training and diligence of inex3erienced enumerators (mostly extension agents) and supervisors resulted n unreliable data. Data for tile1979, 1980 and 1981 crop harvests has nc' been analysed, and some individual programs, such as coffee improvement, livestock development and soil conservation have not been monitored. No reliable data is available on the area cropped or used for livestock, despite WADU reports of a significant increase in crop area since the Land Reform. RMEA's supervision missions were not successful in effecting data collection and analysis.
3.13 WADU failed to reassess the various project activities and unsuccessful programs continued to be funded. EPID, in early 1978, completed an evaluation of WADP-II and addressed at that time the primary objectives of increased crop and livestock production. The underlying issues were, however, ignored, most likely because these issues were national in character (such as cooperative development, fertilizer pricing, and credit eligibility) which were to be addressed at the national, rather than the district level. EPID's role in supervising the implementation of the project through WADU was not clearly defined and in any case, EPID's disbandment in early 1979 destroyed this planned working relationship. At all times, WA.DUwas effectively the project executing agency.
3.14 Studies: Under the Project three specific studies were to be done:
(a) A Soil Conservation Monitoring Program which called for the construction of a hydrometric measuring station for run off and silt load data collection of twin catchments - one unimproved and the other with all required soil coniservationmeasures taken - and the monitoring of erosion and crop production in the twin catchments. Because oE the late appointment of the firm of consultants and the delays in construction (shortages of cement and lack of priority by WADU management), run-off recording commenced only in 1981. Following iniitial observations by RMEA staff and by adinissionof the consultants, it appears that the hydrometric station has been overdesigned. (Under estimation of soil permeability and infiltration rates and over-estimation of rainfall, partly because of inefficient data resulted in an unnecessary large concrete structure) The twin catchments of about 65 ha each may also be too small for obtaining reliable erosion and crop production effects from protective measures taken (more information is, however, required to establish this nore precisely).
(b) The Availability of Land for Further Settlement Study became obsolete because of the Land Reform Proclamation (No. 31 of 1975) which caused a complete change in land tenure and the reallocation of Large holdings to former tenants and landless peasants. - 10 -
(c) A study on the Control and Use of Ranching Land was also not required because of the shortage of suitable land in the high and middle altitudes of the district and the occupation of non-settlement lowland areas by semi-nomadic pastoralists after the Land Reform.
IV. Project Costs, Financing, Procurement and Accounting
4.01 Total project costs were 5% higher than appraisal cost estimates of US$17.32 million. Actual disbursements were 647% of total costs as compared with the appraisal estimate of 69%. Government funding was thus higher in both percentage and in actual fund allocations, mainly because of the extended Project period when staff salaries and operating costs were substantial.
4.02 Project costs by category are presented in the following table:
Project Cost, IDA Funding and Cost Comparison with Appraisal Estimates
Total Appraisal Cost to Cost Appraisal Local Funds IDA Funds TotaL Cost Estimate Estimate Cat. Item U -S '000-- %
I Farm Inputs 422 504 926 2,610 35.5 II Machinery & Equipment 127 332 459 520 88.3 III Vehicles 101 347 448 770 58.2 IV WADU Buildings 205 997 1,202 290 414.5 V Cooperatives 146 217 363 600 60.5 VI Roads 487 277 764 870 87.8 VII Water supplies 157 157 314 500 62.8 VIII Rural artisans 18 40 58 220 26.4 IX WADU salaries 3,299 5,385 8,684 5,200 167.0 X WADU operating costs 1,567 3,012 4,579 2,250 203.5 XI Studies - 352 352 290 121.4 XII Unallocated 3,200
TOTAL: 6_529 11.620 is,_149 1
4.03 When compared to total appraisal cost estimates, significant cost overruns occurred under categories IV (WADU buildings, 315%), IX (WADU salaries, 67%) and X (WADU operating costs, 103%). These overruns were financed from unallocated funds in the Credit, additional funds from GOE and from under-expended funds in other rategories. Significant underspending occurred in Categories I (Incremental Farms Inputs, 35%), III (Vehicles, 58%), VII (Water Supplies, 63%) and VIII (Rural Artisans, 26%).
4.04 Reasons for cost overruns are:
(a) inflation in construction costs, the very high cost of the WAUU headquarters buildings and hydrometric measuring unit because of a comLination of infLation and overdesign, and an expanded construction program; - 11 -
(b) increases in WADU salaries and operating costs due to a 1 1/2 year extension of Project Clo"i'ig Date, the employment of more staff than anticipatted(except extension agents), high vehicle maintenance costs; and (c) the failure of WADUmanagement to control project activities based on cost-effectiveness, which resulted in programs that should have been reduced in scope or stopped.
4.05 More than two-thirds of IDA disbursements (US$8.4 million) were for WADUsalaries and operating costs, again mainly because of the extended Project duration. If wages and other operating costs for road construction, water supply and assistance to cooperatives and rural artisans are included, IDA funded at least 70% of the recurrent expenditures of the project operations, which compares with 49% of the local costs anticipated at appraisal. Less investments were inade than intended on vehicles, machinery and equipment, and water supplies. The reasons are not entirely clear, but MoA did not purchase adequate replacement vehicles and equipment possibly because of anticipated restrictions in funding future operating costs.
Local Funding
4.06 Local.funds were allocated as presented below for the period 1975/76 to 1980/81. Categorization is only approximate because MOF allocations are not made in accordance with IDA disbursement categories:
Local Fund Allocations for WADP-II (Birr '000)
Category 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 Total
I 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 II 38 60 63 29 32 41 263 III 134 47 0 0 2 26 209 IV 6 164 223 5 0 27 425 V 46 103 56 98 0 0 303 VI 269 121 152 164 205 96 1,007 VII 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 VIII 0 0 0 0 0 D 0 IX 558 882 1,212 1,378 1,428 1,371 6,829 X 344 389 620 708 614 568 3,243 XI 0 0 0 0 O 0 0 XII ------
Total (Birr)1,395 1,766 2,326 2,382 2,281 2,129 12,279 (US$rOOO) 674 853 1,124 1,150 1,102 1,028 5,931
Source: Ministry of Finance (MOF). - 12 -
Local fund allocations by NOF do not include Government subsidies and other indirect costs such as the provision of vaccinations for livestock, the provision of the coffee and other tree seedlings and research materials. Also, administrative overheads of MOA and AIDB are not included. Excluded are also the AIDB financed incremental inputs which are estimated to have cost Birr 1,917,312 (US$929,238) and the project costs for the project extenaion period from kpril 7 to December 31, 1981, which are estimated to have been Birr 1.2 million (US$580,000 approximately).
IDA Funding
4.07 Final IDA disbursements were approved in September 1982, following receipt of the RMEA requested satisfactory certification of SOEs by auditors.
4.08 Almost every year, financing of 1OA-approved budgeted activities was con trained by a shortfall in Government funding. In addition funds were often made available late, particularly from 1978/79 onwards. MOF ascribed this to the poor performance of WADU managenent in accounting for alloted funds, unicertaintyof obtaining benefits because of lack of performance indicators, WADU's doubtful ability to spend the funds on budgeted activities and last but in some years not least, a shortage of GOE funds. HOF also complained about the poor performance of WADU and MOA in preparing Credit withdrawal applications in a timely manner.
4.09 Procurement: MOA.continued to be responsible for WADU procurement after the disbandment of EPID and no unusual problems were reported. However, long delays were experienced in obtaining spare parts and building materials, sometimes because of national shortages, but poor planning was also one of the reasons for a shortage of critical spare parts. A shortage of cement caused delays in the construction of buildings and the hydrometric measuring station. WADU maintained a purchasing office in Addis Ababa for the procurement of local goods. Auditors commented adversely on WADU stores control and only one physical stocktaking (1980) was done.
4.10 Accounting: Poor accounting and processing of withdrawal applications by WADU led to substantial mispostings of expenditures and in the miscategorization on withdrawal application forms which caused disbursement delays. Following visits by RHEA financial analysts to WADU, it was decided by RMEA to suspend disbursements on SOEs in September 1981. On receipt of satisfactory certificates by auditors on outstanding SOEs final disbursements were made in late 1982. rhe schedule of disbursements is presented in Annex 3.
4.11 The original Project Completion Date was postponed from June 30, 1979 to June 30, 1981 - a full two years, to complete project construction activities, and to get WADU to do various surveys to establish Project impact. The Project Closing Date was extended from June 30, 1980 to December 31, 1981 due to the delayed Project implementation and to allow a full audit of all outstanding SOEs. The Closing Date was informally extended thereafter because GOE aade determined efforts to obtain the requested audits of outstanding SOEs; disbursements were then made on SOEs received prior to March 31, 1982. The outstanding Credit amount of US$379,585.40 was cancelled effective December 10, 1982, the date of final disbursement. 1/
1/ on the subject of project closing and completion see PPAR Ethiopia Addis Ababa Dairy Development Project (Credit 269-ET), OED Report No. 4001 dated June 23, 1982. - 13 -
V. InstitutiorialPerformance Performance of the Borrower
5.01 MOA did not perform well as the Ministry responsible for project extension. The following specific deficiencies were identified:
(a) staff performance; (b) senior staff appointments; (c) cooperative development; and (d) accounts and audits.
Project Management and Staffing
5.02 After negotiations, EPID was to be the implementing agency with WADU its executing agency as a self-containedunit of EPID. EPID was to provide assistance in project monitoring and evaluation and procurement. Following the disbandment of EPID in 1979, a Ministerial Committee in MOA took over the coordinating role, while the WADU management became directly responsible through the Regional Agricultural Office in Awassa (Southern Region) to the Permanent Secretary of MOA. The WADU Project Director changed six times from 1975 to 1979. The first one was removed because of staff and local unrest following the revolution, several acting directors followed in 1975, 1977 and 1978 and the present Director was appointed in August 1979 (in March 1978, an acting Director was detained). It has been most unfortunate that the Deputy Director position was not filled after 1975 since this resulted in poor internal project coordination in the absence of strong and experienced Project Directors. Coordination from the Regional office in Awassa was in essence non-existent.
5.03 Total staff numbers increased rapidLy, from 540 in 1974/75 to 1,143 in 1978/79, mainly in the junior and unskilled categories. It proved difficult to attract experienced technical ard professional staff because of a general shortage of these categories in Ethiopia. Living conditions in or near Soddo, which is realtively isolated and distant from Addis Ababa, were also not attractive to qualified and experienced staff and this further led to a high staff turnover and a large number of vacancies at management and technical levels. The greatest drain on experienced staff has been the required internal transfers to other MOA positions. One of the reasons that the number of unskilled staff continued to be high was the regulation that staff had to become permanent enployees if hired for more than three months (this condition has now been abolished). This resulted in the employment of a considerable number of unskilled construction workers, who in later years became underemployed. Staff discipline was poor, with absenteeism and short working hours being common.
5.04 The relationship between management and staff within WADU were strained particularly in the early Project years. - 14 -
PROJECT STAFFING
Category High Medium High and Middle Year Total Level Level Other Level Vacant -- Number --
1974/75 540 17 276 247 23 1975/76 879 26 308 545 14 1976/77 917 27 300 590 13 1977/78 1,060 30 324 706 10 1978/79 1,143 26 351 766 14 1979/80 1,127 26 346 755 14 1980/81 1,004 26 311 667 14
Source: Personnel Section of WADU. Note: Statistics are for staff present at the end of each financial year.
5.05 The staff Training Centre operated by WADU at Soddo has generally been under-utilized (about 50% of the capacity) because of Government funding constraints. All new extension staff received basic training in a long-term course and annual refresher courses were held. Appraisal training targets were exceeded, but the standard of training of extension agents has been low, mainly because the trainers were insufficiently qualified and experienced. Nine WADU staff were selected for training at higher education institutions in Ethiopia and the head of the Soil Conservation Division received overseas training. Although not foreseen at appraisal, greater technical staff training could have been done, using WADU facilities.
5.06 Project management in the early years was extremely difficult following the revolution and the land reform which caused problems in staff compatability with the local population and led to a decline in staff discipline and morale. The sudden large increase in the number of fanrers eligible for project services, which WADU was not geared to handle, was and could not be envisaged at appraisal. Cooperation with the district administration was good throughout. The Director of WADU was a member of Wolaita District Development Committee and at sub-district level WADU staff was also represented on development committees. This close relationship, however, led to devotion of WADU personnel, equipment and vehicles to non-project activities and some non-project costs were borne by WADU. These costs have been accounted for and are to be repaid. Most of the construction and service costs involved have been traced and were identified as closely related to project activities. Disbursements were not affected because only a few minor items which were not project related were deducted from SOE claims after a thorough audit of all claims under SOE was submitted in the last year. - 15
Cooporative DeveIonent and Credit
5.07 Cooperatives: Following the revolution and Land Refoiin, cooperative policy was under revision and resulted in guidelines on development and a Government Proclaination of policy and procedures to be followed. The Ministry of Agriculture would be responsible for implementing the policy. Peasant Associations and Cooperatives would become the main instruments of agricultural development in Ethiopia. The WCFU was abolished, but WADU continued to support the established cooperatives in the district, both financially and administratively, although this support was to have been phased out after the third year of cooperative establishment. In 1981 there were 269 Peasant Associations with 150,572 memnbersorganized in 55 Service Cooperatives. Of the Service Cooperatives 37 are registered and have storage and office facilities as well as a retail sales section. WADU employed a secretary for each cooperative whose responsibility for assistance in cooperative management was not phased out. Only little progress was made in making the cooperative self-managed and self-accounting. Considerable effort continues to be required from WADU to achieve self-sufficiency goals in input purchasing and distribution, and financial management.
5.08 In 1981, there were 17 Producer Cooperatives which have received considerable preferential treatment from WADU. Tractor services for land preparation have been made available and extension services have greatly focussed on communal farm activities and subsidised credit and inputs -weremade available. Also beef cattle fattening herds have been provided on credit and demonstration units for poultry, bee-keeping, compost-making, improved houses etc., have been established at the Producer Cooperatives. Achievements and benefits are variable and some internal farmer disputes have been observed.
5.09 Under WADP-II, a total of 38 cooperative stores were constructed. Cooperative members were to contribute half of the construction costs. However, farmers' contributions in land, labor and local materials have not been properly recorded. Only total costs of construction are reasonably well known and IDA reimbursements were for 50% of these construction costs. It remains doubtful, if cooperative members can or will repay the Government half of store construction costs over a period from 5-12 years, as has been legally agreed with MOA.
5.10 Credit: The Agricultural and Industrial Development Bank (AIDB) provided funds under a Subsidiary Loan Agreement (SLA) for short and medium term credit to farmers. Following the Land Reform Proclamation of 1975, the agreement became obsolete. AIDB then financed farmer credits with its own funds which could not be reimbursed by IDA until a new SLA was drawn up and approved in 1981. An inter-agency agreement between the Agricultural Marketing Corporation (AMC), AIDB and MOA provided for AIDB to make credit available to cooperatives and peasant associations for the purchase of inputs from AMC. Disbursenent was against the incremental credit, which amounted to US$ 1,089,590. The number of borrowers increased from 6,843 in 1974/75 to 32,107 in 1975/76 and declined thereafter to 15,154 in 1980/81. The amount of credit outstanding for farm inputs is as follows: - 16 -
Credit ONtstandi. for Farm Inputs as at 07/07/81
Project Period Principal Total Outstanding (including interest)
Birr …------Prior to 1979/80 1,031,583.32 1,480,643,'4 1979/80 to 1980/81 423,442.40 436,668.61
Total: 1,455,025.72 l,917,31.2.15
Following the revolution, credit recovery fell from 90% in 1973/74 to 65% in 1974/75 because many farmers felt that socialism would extend to the cancellation of their loans and debts. Cumulative repayments stood at 82% in 1980/81. WADU was not able to pursue the rapidly increasing number of debtors in the early years.
5.11 InfrastL'uctureDevelopment: WADU's Infrastructure Division has generally carried out its assignment efficiently on force account. The only major delay (apart from those because of shortages of cement, materials and spare parts for machinery) was in the provision of water to the lowland settlement areas and villages in the highlands. The efficient project engineer proposed the purchase of a drilling rig for the construction of deep boreholes equipped with pumps. Following the. preparation of a cost-benefit proposal, IDA did not agree to the purchase of a rig, (mainly because of the availability of other rigs in the country, uncertainty of future use, and availability of operating funds) and a neighbouring Development Unit (Arsella) then made its rig available. One of the reasons for postponement of the Project Closing Date was the desirability of providing potable water to villagers. Even at project closure, the number of people served with water from WADU provided facilities remiainsonly one third of that estimated at appraisal. Considerable improvements were made to existing wells and springs in the district, but the number of beneficiaries is unknown.
5.12 Road Maintenance: Despite GOE assurances, maintenance has been very poor and supervision missions should have given more emphasis to this aspect since poor road maintenance was also evident in the earlier Project. tt is estimated that about one-third of the minor roads (these are the major roads into villages) are in disrepair and impassable, while an unknown, but significant distance of tracks are also out of use. WA'DU and the district administration are trying to rectify the situation through self-help road maintenance by villagers, but support is not everywhere readily forthcoming. Many roads and tracks were, following construction, inadequately protected from erosion and in some instances the run-off from roads is causing erosion on farmer lands.
5.13 Settlement Schemes were one of the key components of WADP I and were to be further supported under WADP II. Although specific production data is not available and settler movements are not recorded, it is reported by WADU that about a third of all farmers settled in the two lowland schemes (1,750 families) during the first phase project, have since left their plots as a result of erratic climatic (drought) conditions and poor returns from cash crops. Some deserted plot.s have been taken up by squatters. - 17 -
5.14 Accounts and Audits: WADU accounts have been inadequately maintained and it is impossible to obtain accurate sub-project coatings. Audits were carried out late by a firm of auditors, and all annual audit reports contained many qualifications. IDA withheld disbursement on Statements of Expenditures (SOE) and for construction costs for cooperative stores utnder Category V of DCA. Disbursements were, however, finalised following receipt of a satisfactory sTecial audit report by the Government's Audit Services Corporation, dated September 14, 1982. Some minor adjustments to the various claims were found necessary.
VI. Project Benefits, Pinancial and Economic Analvsio
6.01 Project impact has been less than expected although no statistics are available to measure the shortfall from appraisal targets. In determining the nature and extent of project impact, it is not possible to disaggregate the results of the project from the influence of the Revolution and Land Reform in Ethiopia. The consequences of the Revolution affected project performance mainly in impairing the ability of management to direct and administer staff in the early project years. The effect of Land Reform on the aumber of farra holdings and the area of cultivated land is also not documented. From observations, it appears, however, that more grazing laud has been brought under cultivation.
Evaluation
6.02 Baseline agricultural data is almost totally lacking. Neither cropped or pastured land areas nor crop yields, crop production and livestock numbers and off-take are available. Although MOA and WADUwere well aware of these data constraints no serious efforts were made to remedy the situation. Even the unreliable data collected by extension workers during the annual crop sampling surveys has not been properly tabulated and analysed for the last three crop seasons. This lack of data has contributed to the difficulties in attempting to disaggregate the impact of the project activities and the impact of the Land Reform on land use and crop production in the district. It has only been possible to approximate the gross production changes that have taken place in the district and to impute the possible constribution made by the development and service components under WADU. The manpower to carry out data collection and evaluation was present but management and staff commitment was not forthcoming for executing it. Poor accounting, particularly inadequate recording of expenditures for different components (paras. 5.14), adds difficulties to financial and economic evaluation. 1/
6.03 Incremental crop production was determined from imputed incremental yields and crop area estimates based on inputs supplied through WADU and cooperatives. Benefits from the coffee program were calculated on the basis of number of trees stumped, and the tree management programs implemented. Despite a lack of data, incremental livestock production was estimated from the animal health component. The cross-breeding program was basically unsuccessful. Soil conservation
1/ Data collected and financial accounting were also very poor under the first project. - 1.8 - benefits were substantial but not quantified and incremental production wab estimated. Since approximations and assumptions were made, the evaluation results must be treated with considerable caution.
6.04 It has not been possible to calculate project impact on farm incomes. However, the decline in the use of inputs suggests that farmers did not realize adequate benefits to warrant their usage. This is, however, a debatable assumption since Peasant Associations and thus many farmers (29,000 at Project Closure) were ineligible for credit for the purchase of seasonal inputs due to loan arrears.
Project Benefits, Financial and Economic Analysis.
6.05 Annual Crops: Incremental annual crop production has been calculated from the use of inputs and the expected reasonable crop-yield increases (based on research results adjusted to farmer field situations). No impact from more intensive or extensive use of crop land has been assumed. Annex 2 provides supporting data and the table below compares the peak incremental crop production (in 1976/77) with the appraisal projections at full development.
Incremental Crop Production
Estimated Appraisal Estimate Crop Incremental of Incremental Crop Production Crop Production in 1976/77 a/ in Year 6 -- tonnes ------
Maize 11,825 44,500 Sorghum - -(2,500) Teff 3,440 10,060 Wheat - 1,000 Barley -(400) Cotton 538 1,100 Chillies - 400 Ginger - 1,100 Haricot Beans - 500 Field Peas - 400 Irish Potatoes - 2,000 a/ Production of annual crops has fallen since reaching a peak in 1976/77.
6.06 It is most unfortunate that there are no data to support crop production estimates over the years. It is believed that the Wolaita district before the present Project was in some years importing substantial quantities of food grains and it appears that there is now in some years evidence of considerable, but again unquantifiable, export from the district. On the other hand, some food aid has been available to the Bele and Abele lowland settlement areas in drought years. Crop production, although apparently declining since 1976/77, may therefore have been higher than indicated. - 19 -
6.07 Average annual produce prices in Soddo were used for estimating the net value of incremental crop production. Results are provided in the following table.
Estimated Net Value of Incremental Crop Production
Gross Value of Incremental Gross Value Net Year Production of Inputs Value …------Birr '000 ------1974/75 1,241 957 284 1975/76 3,049 1,455 1,594 1976/77 4,269 2,025 2,244 1977/78 a/ 2,892 1,221 1,671 1978/79 3,771 1,945 1,826 1979/80 2,841 1,654 1,187 1980/81 1,142 746 396 a/ Production of annual crops has fallen since reaching a peak in 1976/77.
6.08 Coffee: The incremental production of the coffee improvement program is estimated at 70.5 tonnes in 1980/81 and 165 tonnes of coffee at full benefit level in 1984t85. Incremental coffee production is presented in the table below:
Incremental Coffee Production
Trees Stumped Incremental Production Year Appraisal Actual Appraisal Estimated!/
-…------No ------tonnes ------
1974/75 8,000 1975/76 25,000 20,000 (3.2) 4.0 1976/77 25,000 19,000 (5.3) 18.0 1977/78 25,000 47,000 (6.4) 37.5 1978/79 25,000 10,000 (4.3) 70.5 1979/80 25,000 27,000 (1.5) 99.0 1980/81 - 28,000 3.4 119.5
a/ Production is thought not to have fallen, since it is the experience of extension staff that farmers were only willing to stump non-productive trees. Results are from both stumped and CBD-resistant trees.
Livestock
6.09 Cattle: No benefits have been assumed from the live cover and AI cross-breeding activities because of extremely poor farmer response - 20 - and no records were kept of off-spring produced. It was therefore assumed that any possible benefits are, or will be, offset if the opportunity cost of crossbreeding is considered; local bulls would have been used instead and the cross-bred offspring would have been susceptible to diseases, poor nutritional conditions, and parasites which would have to be offset against any benefits from possible increased milk and meat production. Livestock production benefitted most from the health services due to the resultant decrease in mortality which led to increased meat and milk production.
6.10 Scanty available data indicates a compounded net livestock growth rate in the district of 4.5% in the period 1971/72 to 1976/77 (505,000 animals in 1971/72 and 625,000 animals in 1976/77). The present livestock population is thought to be less than 780,000, which a 4.5% compounding rate would indicate. A growth rate of 4% per annum has therefore been assumed at a base population of 550,000 animals in 1974/75 and one fourth of the growth has been attributed to the project.
Incremental Cattle Production
Incremental Cattle Growth Production a/ Unit Total Year Rate at 4% Appraisal Value Valueb/ Estimate Actual
No ------Birr Birr '000
1974/75 550,000 - 1975/76 572,000 - 5,500 1976/77 595,000 - 5,750 1977/78 619,000 1,100 6,000 1978/79 643,000 3,100 6,000 6 669,000 4,400 6,500 _/ 160 800 7 696,000 5,000 6,750 200 1,150 8 - 6,100 - 200 1,200 9 8,600 - 200 1,200 10 10,000 - 200 1,350 11- 11,500 - 200 1,350
a/ Production (offtake attributable to Project). b/ Price is based on June-September local prices (unfattened cattle, not sold for the Maska festival (high price season). c/ Incremental cattle offtake is sold at the age of 4 years.
6.11 Poultry: Betnefitsfrom the cockerel exchange program were negligible and not quantified.
6.12 Soil Conservation: The achievements of WADU's soil conserving program are substantial and these were quantified along appraisal methodology.
6.13 Non-quantifiable Benefits: There are a number of benefits which are difficult to quantify, firstly because the extent of their adoption - 21 - by the rural community is unknown and secondly their value is difficult to assess. Basic infrastructure provided by WADU in the Wolaita district is of economic (e.g. roads and stores for cooperatives) and social (e.g. water supply schemes, health clinic and home economics services) benefit to the community. These benefits include those from improved water supplies due to: cleaning, protecting and development of springs and other water supplies; increased tree plantings on farms for fuel and pole wood; use of improved crop storages on farms; the acceptance of new house (both exterior and interior) designs and other benefits from the home economics program; the general improvement in animal health (donkeys, goats and chickens) from the health program, and the general improvements in plant densities and row cultivation techniques recommended by extension agents. Improved living standards are claimed by both farmer groups and extension workers.
Management
6.14 rhe reasons for poor overall project performance trace largely back to an ineffective project management, which failed to institute effective fiscal controls and cost-benefit monitoring through appropriate monitoring and evaluating programs and cost effectiveness measurements of individual project components0 The performance of management must, however, also be seen against the backdrop of the revolution, ethnic problems and staff delinquency.
Financial Analysis
6.15 Rates of Return Inadequate records and costing data prevents the calculation of the returns for individual project components. Project evaluation is thus based upon a financial evaluation in which estimated gross project benefits and total costs have been compared. An economic analysis is then derived from the financial analysis.
6.16 For the financial analysis, benefits from crop and livestock production and from soil conservation efforts have been estimated to give the benefit stream, while total IDA and GOE contributions have been taken as project costs. Indirect Government costs such as outstanding input debts, veterinary drugs used, interest on MOF bridging finance and an allowance for MOA's indirect costs were not included as project costs.
6.17 Benefits, calculated as the financial value of crop and livestock production and soil conservation (as outlined in Annex 2) are summarized as follows: - 22 -
Total Financia1 Benefits of WADP-II
Incremental Value Annual Soil Year Crops Coffee Livestock Conservation Total t … Birr 'OOOQ------
1975/76 1,594 5 1,599 1976/77 2,244 616 2,860 1977/78 1,671 3 880 2,554 1978/79 1,926 14 880 2,720 1979/80 1,187 34 880 1,124 3,225 1980/81 396 66 1,150 1,283 2,895 1981/82 396 a/ 92 1,200 1,285 2,973 1982/83 111 1,200 1,159 2,470 1983/84 139 1,300 1,031 2,344 1984/85 159 1,350 905 2,408 1985/86 153 1,350 a/ 779 2,282 1986/87 153 653 806 1987/88 146 527 873 1988/89 127 395 522 1989/90 109 274 383 1990/91 65 148 213 1991/92 56 23 79 1992/93 31 27 58 1993/94 5 30 35 1994/95 2 15 17
Note: a/ Residual impact after project completion.
6.18 Project Costs are the direct financial allocations made by IDA and GOE. Expenditures for 1981/82 are estimated final disbursements by IDA, and the residual is to be borne by GOE. Indirect costs are not included.
Project Costs
Year IDA GOE (FY) Component Component Total
…- Birr '000
1975/76 2,069 1,395 3,464 1976/77 2,569 1,765 4,334 1977/78 4,136 2,326 6,462 1978/79 3,069 2,380 5,449 1979/80 1,134 2,281 3,415 1980/81 5,774 2,129 7,903 1981/82 1,599 a/ 3,570 a/ 5,169 a/
a/ Estimates. - 23 -
6.19 Financial Rate of Return the financial rate of retulrnwas calculated using a cashflow analysis of the direct costs and benefits. All transactions are expressed in 1980/81 values. A salvage value has been included as benefit in the final project year (L981/82). A negative financial rate of return of about -6% is estimated.
6.20 Non-quantifiable benefits (para 6.12) and indirect benefits (e.g. research activities) would, if accounted for in this analysis, raise the beneficial impact of the project; and it must be noted that it is possible that annual crop production could be substantially higher than indicated here if we accept MOA observations that the district has become a food-grain export area over the Life of the project (see also para 6.05).
Economic Analysis
6.21 The Appraisal Report estimated an econonic rate of return (ERR) to the project of 18%, with ERRs to the key productive components as follows: crop developmetit 17.5%, livestock development 2L.2%, soil conservation 11.2%, and coffee improvement 26%. Due to the abovementioned (para 6.01) difficulty of disaggregating the costs associated with separate components, only an overall ERR has been estimated for this report.
6.22 The general lack of data available for project evaluation has meant that a good deal of educated guesswork has been needed in order to construct the foregoing financial analysis. This effectively limits its usefulness, and the usefulness of an economic analysis derived from it. The value of both exercises is that they indicate in broad quantitative terms the degree to which this project failed to meet its objectives.
6.23 Transforming the financial analysis into an economic analysis has required the following adjustments:
(a) to costs:
(i) in an attetapt to remove frorn the cost-stream those costs associated with outputs for which benefits have not been estimated (roads, assistance to rural artisans, rural water supplies), a fixed percentage has been deducted from project costs for each year between 1975/6 and 1981/2, based on an estimate of the proportion of overall disbursements represented by those activities.
(ii) incremental labor inputs into annual crop and coffee production and soil conservation activities have beeti estimated and shadow-priced at 25% of local agricultural wage-labor rates.
(iii) project inputs with foreign exchange components, fertilizer, equipment, fuel) have been valued upwards by 34% to reflect their true cost to the economy (assuming a shadow rate of exchange of Br. 2.70 to the dollar). - 24 -
(b) to benefits:
(i) where appropriate - i.e. in the case of maize, cotton and coffee - estimated project outputs have been revalued using the appropriate import or export parity prices,
(ii) in the case of teff, for which there is no world market and for which it is assumed that no satisfactory substitute exists, Addis Ababa open market prices have been used to shadow-price output.
(iii) local output market prices have been used for live cattle output.
6.24 The resultant discounted cashflow analysis gives an economic return to the Project of approximately -1%. Even though this is based on conservative assumptions as to yield/output benefits, it is clear that the project fell short of achieving reasonable results. The main cause of this is the estimated low impact of project activities on agricultural production, particularly following pToject closure. The appraisal report foresaw cost increases, and not poor production results, as the major project risk.
VII. Bank Performance
Identification and ppraisal
7.01 Because of the Government's and IDA's desire to retain momentum and to ensure continuity in the development of both infrastructureand agricultural development in the district, WADP-II was too quickly prepared. Plans for a second phase project were made before a thorough evaluation of the impact of the first project had been done. This led to a repetition of design weaknesses and shortcomings in both project operations and performance. In particular, the livestock component perpetuated the weaknesses detected in the first project (PPAR, DED Report No. 2570, dated June 28, 1979). It is concluded that the repeater project should not have been embarked upon without a thorough evaluation of the performance of the ongoing or earlier phase. Appraisal estimates for incremental crop and livestock production and for cooperative development were over-optimistic, but this could not have been foreseen (Revolution and land reform).
7.02 During project preparation there was an ongoing debate on the agricultural policy direction in Ethiooia. In the event it was decided to continue with another limited area, but comprehensive irtegrated, agricultural development project in the Wolaita district and at the same time to evaluate the impact of the minimum package (basic extension services and input supplies approach). From WADP-I and II, it is concluded that the comprehensive area development approach was at the time, beyond the technical (management, staffing) and financial capacity of Ethiopia as the general agricultural development policy (para. 8.04).
7.03 Although the appraisal teaM provided for the international recruitment of seven key staff for periods varying from two to five - 25 - years, this requirement was deleted during negotiations, and only consultation with IDA was required for the appointments or re-appointments to the positions of Director of WADU, Heads of the Extension Training, the Marketing and Credit and the Finance Divisions; and the Heads of the Cooperative Development and Artificial Insemination Sections. COE's experiences with expatriate personnel under WADU-I had been mixed and this caused considerable resentment to the further employment of expatriates in Soddo. The managerial and technical training and experience of most senior MOA personnel assigned to WADU was, however, inadequate. With hindsight, it is considered a mistake for IDA not to have insisted on the appointment of a Deputy Project Director with particular responsibilities for coordination/planning of WADU activities. Project monitoring and evaluation, which tasks were originally assigned to EPID and later to MOA in conjunction with WADU's Planning, Evaluation and Budget Control Unit (PEBCU), was totally inadequate. Clearly, this second phase project was too ambitious fat-the technical and managerial capacity of the MOA administration and this possibly could have been foreseen frot experiences under WADP-I in which staffing, data collection and evaluation and accounting were also poor.
7.04 Preparation and appraisal teams could not foresee the revolution and the subsequent land reform which had quite dramatic effects on the number of potential beneficiaries and the land use. The main project impact was to be derived from incremental crop production from the use of inputs and from changing cropping patterns as farners adopted more profitable cropping systems which were to result in cash income. The appraisal team could not predict the present predominance of subsistence agriculture in the WoLaita district, whichlprevented cash cropping to a great extent. High fertilizer prices and resulting low returns from crops, together with mainly subsistence use of produce and the changed farmer attitude to credit repayments as a result of the Revolution, prevented satisfactory credit repayments. Once farmers were in default, produce was sold to private traders for higher prices than could be obtained from cooperatives. At appraisal, little was known about traditional cropping systems in the expanded project area and predictions for future cropping patterns and crop yields were therefore highly speculative.
7.05 Although there was little knowLedge about cropping systems and their integration with livestock, the appraisal team did not include a comprehensive baseline survey to identify the smallholder production constraints and the required applied research activities. The constraints in a basic subsistence agricultural system was not assessed before the Revolution. An experienced farm management economist was sadly missed during project implementation in a district, where farm plans and gross margin calculations had not received sufficient attention 1/. The non-acceptance by farmers of Boran x Friesian crossbreeds could have been foreseen at appraisal from the lack of crossbreed popularity and the achievements under the first project.
1/ A senior economist was appointed after supervision missions pursued the issue, but he resigned after only a year in position. A junior economist spent little time on crop budgets. - 26 -
7.06 The design of the cooperative.component overlooked the fundamental cooperative problems of management and financing, which are necessary to ensure usefulness and effectiveness. The appraisal required a substantial expansion of cooperatives despite the fact that WADP-I liad shown that cooperatives were not successful as marketing bodies due to a shortage of working capital, low turnovers and high operating costs. The appraisal team could not, however, have foreseen the development of peasant associations as the main instruments in agricultural development following the revolution.
Project Supervisions
7.07 During the 6 1/2 years of credit effectiveness, twelve supervisions were carried out by RMNA. One mission was combined with the final supervision of WADP-I which investigated the issues which delayed declaring effectiveness of WADP-IE. Five of the twelve supervisions were conducted without the presence of one of the previous supervision personnel and a total of eleven IDA staff members were involved in supervision missions. The first four supervisions, during the difficult period following land reform and WADU management staff changes, when project directions required careful review and assessment, were conducted by different supervisors. Only fromT1980 onwards was there supervision staff continuity.
7.08 Despite the supervision staff changes, mission ports are thorough, with officers highlighting specific problems, assessing the performances of individual divisions, sections and units of WADU in relation to project implementation, and offering solutions to major problems. An exception is in the failure to address the lack of mionitoringand evaluation of project impact on crop and livestock production. This problem received little attention before 1979. In 1980, however, a special mission was mounted in an effort to get MOA to at least determine crop areas and yields as well as some gross margin calculatLons on crops for which extension recommendations were available.
7.09 Project supervisions consistently noted three major constraining issues:
(a) effectiveness of project tanagement, higher and middle level staff vacancies, staff morale, discipline and motivation; (b) deficiencies in project accounts, late submission of accounts and audit reports; and later on (c) lack of data collection and evaluation.
Although all thTee continuously identified constraints to project effectiveness were covered by Credit covenants, none of the supervision missions recommended firsnaction by IDA in the form of the need for redesign or suspension of disbursements until the problem was rectified. It was not until late 1981, when disbursements against SOEs were suspended due to inadequate supporting accounts, late account submissions, and heavily qualified audit reports on accounts from earlier project years. Missions generally focussed nore on technical and managerial aspects than on actual disburserents and fund allocations. - 27 -
Actual use of funds for the different Project components could only be checked through proper accounts; thus the cost effectiveness of individual components could not be evaluated.
7.10 It is evident from supervision reports that missions lacked quantitative data to evaluate project impact. The fundamental issues of low project impact on crop and livestock production, poor cooperative development and performance, and the declining viability and acceptability of input use recommendations were not adequately addressed until 1979, when results from crop sampling surveys, a decline in input usage and the failure of the cattle cross-breeding program highlighted the situation. Firm action to ensure full Government conmitment to the Project at that stage, could possibly have prompted MOA to take remedial measures and some components should have discontinued, while others could have been modified or strengthened.
7.11 Ouce again it is necessary to note that the unusual circumstances imposed by the after-effects of the revolution from 1974-1979 resulted in,caution being adopted by all Government personnel. The uncertainties and personal dangers of the times contributed most importantly to i lack of decision-making.
7.12 Road maintenance received insufficient attention and action from IDA. It is now apparent that a lack of GOE funding for, and villager participation in road maintenance has considerably reduced the benefits of road construction under the project.
7.13 Closer MOA involvement in project execution and in assessing effectiveness of project components should also have been insisted upon by IDA.
Performance of Consultants
7.14 The appointment of consultants assisting with the Soil Conservatinti Monitoring Study was delayed due to a lack of WADU/Ministry administrative action in clearing and effecting their appointment. Because of cement shortages and delays by the Infrastructure Division, the civil works were not completed until 1980. Only one full year of run-off and silt load measurements were completed. Measurements from that year are inaccurate because of apparent overdesign of the hydrometric station, which must be adjusted for future usefulness. Also agronomic, socio-economic and erosion data collected from the twin catchment areas is disappointing. However, continuation of a consultancy input in the soil conservation monitoring study is essential to obtain the required information from the twin catchiment areas. Preliminary arrangements were made by RMEA with MoA to continue financing the study under an ongoing Project.
VIIi. Conclusions
8.0. The objectives set out in the project appraisal were not achieved; the expected incremental crop production may have been achieved but cannot be quantified and projected incremental livestock production was not achieved. The project is estimated to have had a negative rate - 28 - of return. The impact on land use and production from project activities cannot be disaggregated from the impact of Land Reform.
8.02 The almost total absence of data on individual project component costs and benefits, prevented management and IDA supervisions from being able to evaluate and redirect the project. Where evidence suggested that changes in programs were necessary, project management and the Ministry of Agriculture were unable or unwilling to effect the necessary modifications.
8.03 While infrastructure development was mainly completed in a reasonable manner, cooperative development, extension, research and studies, evaluation and planning components, which were the basis for increased crop and livestock production, were not implemented as designed at appraisal.
8.04 The project concept was based on conditions prevailing prior to the revolution. In particular, land tenure, management aspects and terms of trade changed significantly during implementation. In retrospect, the consequences of the revolution on staff availability and on agricultural and social policies had an adverse impact on a project which was not, and could hardly have been designed to cope with such unforeseen circum- stances. I/ Nevertheless, there is a more pertinent question: could such an intensive agricultural development program have been successful even with more favorable external factors? Also at that time, when the project was designed in the early 1970s, was there still a place for costly and complex integrated programs in Ethiopia's agricultural development strategy? With the benefit of hindsight, the answers to both questions are probably strongly negative. Lack of skilled staff and budgetary resources and the complexity of the institutional and policy environment in Ethiopia argued against such an approach. This had been explicitly recognized in the design of the Minimum Package Program, which was already underway when the project was being designed and processed. 2/ This is a lesson that is as relevant now as at the inception of the MPP approach.
1/ On this point see also four earlier PPARs on Ethiopian projects: Lower Adiabo Development Project (Credit 516-ET), OED Report No. 3971 dated June 17, 1982; Second Livestock Development Project (Credit 365-ET), OED Report No. 3977 dated June 21, 1982, Addis Ababa Dairy Development Project (Credit 269-ET), OED Report No. 4001 dated June 23, 1982; and Coffee Processing Project (Credit 290-ET), OED Report No. 3976 dated June 21, 1982.
2/ See also: PPAR, Ethiopia-First Agricultural Minimum Package Project (Credit 416-ET), OED Report No. 3002 dated May 30, 1982. - 29 -
ETHIOPIA
Second Wolaita AgriculturalDevelopment Project (Credit 486-ET)
PAOJEC COMPLETIONREPORT
ANNEXI
KEY INDICATORSOF PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ANSDPEFOREMANCE Nn
(7
%,-r
i ETHIOPIA Second Wolaita Agricultural Development Project (Credit 486-ET)
PROJECT COMPLETIONREPORT
K^y Indicators - Field Excension and Development Activities
Total Activities 1974/75 1975176 1976177 1977178 1978179 1979180 19BOOM8 Total Targeted
CROP HUSBANDRY: Coffee tree husbandry (1) (no) 16,327 40,402 38,208 93,638 19,958 54,225 55,423 318,181 515.150 CBD-resistant seedlings (no) distributed ------21,928 21,928 -
INSTRUCTION: - CBD Spraying (2) (no) _- - - - 16,334 32,650 48,994 287.877 - Crop varieties (no. farmers) - 11,636 16,620 117,338 151,105. 196,000 80,251 512,950 726,398 - Cultivation methods (ha) 16,322 5,940 3,500 29,817 21,675 31,470 28,127 136,851 422,449 - Youth associations (no) - - - - 14 - 24 38 214 - Use of implements (no) - - 10 20 - 12 5 47 127 - Compostpits (no) 64 218 312 855 326 1,835 327 3,938 5,470 - Demos(Fielddays (no) 60 40 8 8 64 136 101 147 665
ANIMAL HUSBANDRY: Poultry sites developed (no) - - - 10 6 518 94 -628 166 AI extension (farmers) (no) - - - - 19 6,692 17,16' 23,B78 157,290 Cattle sprayed for ticks (no) - - - - - 17,240 7,805 25,045 16,940 Demo beekeeping centers (no) - - - 23 13 07 40 183 402 Beehives distributed (no) - - - 5 14 107 25 151 100 Cattle castrated (no) - 164 1,524 3,376 7,389 iu,618 7,798 33,869 67,112
OTHER: Farm crop storagesbuilt (no) 67 761 410 1,021 3U 668 129 3,086 5,590 Wooden bridges built (no) 55 174 124 70 175 419 176 1,193 3,485 Latrinesbuilt (no) 181 1,195 311 271 21,791 46,798 6,552 77,099 49,623 Crop samples taken (no) - - - - - 1,000 - 1,000 - Model houses built (no) - - - - - 95 121 216 403
Source: Extension and Training Division of WADU. Notes: (1) Number of trees thinned, praned or etumped. (2) Number of trees sprayed in demonstrations. - 32 -
Annex 1 Table 2 ETHIOPIA Second Wolaita AgricultuTalDeveloimett Project (Credit 486-ET)
PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT
Key Indicators- Extension and Training
Description Quantity
RDA's and supervisors 110 Ratio of farmers to field technicians 1,364 HEA's 52 Man-weeks of training given 12,526 Man-weeks of training possible 22,000 Artisans trained 773
Source: Extension anidTraining Division of WADU. 33 - Annex 1 Table 3 ETHIOPIA Second Wolaita Agricultural Development Project - Credit (486-ET)
PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT
Key Indicators - Marketing, Credit and Cooperatives Division
Description Quantity
Peasant Association 269 Members of PA's (farmers) 150,572 Service Cooperatives 55 Producers' Cooperatives 17 Stores constructed 39 Number of farmers in debt 29,423 Outstanding Credit: - Principal B 1.455 million - Interest B 0.462 million - Total B 1.917 million Training at WADU - Service Cooperatives 26 man weeks - ProduceTs Cooperatives 107 man weeks - Book-keeping 57 man weeks Service Cooperatives audited 11 Service Cooperatives registered 37 WADU Field Staff: - Total 89 - Staff/CooperativesRatio 1.24
Source: Marketing, Credit and Cooperatives Division of WADU. ETHIOPIA Second Wolaita Agricultural Development Pro ect (Credit 486-ET)
PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT
Key Indicators - Marketing, Credit and Cooperatives
Activity 1974/75 1975176 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81
Credit Farmers (no) 7,826 .32,107 46,151 23,837 24,415 21,963 15,154 Value of Inputs used (Birr) (1) 657,846 1,005,008 1,925,725 2,328,416 1,921,648 2,688,652 778,248
Quantity of inputs used:
- Fertilizer (tonnes 1,496 1,995 3,590 4,715 2,781 3,035 8271 - Seed (kg) - 600 163,k3 538 35.168 28,383 8,550 - Pesticides (litres) 684 44,522 18,171 28,861 19,003 11,231 - Pesticides (kg) 2 1,252 795 555 547 282
Produce Marketed:
- Value (Birr '000) 547.4 454.4 793.7 402.7 622.9 NA NA - quantity (qts) 666.4 749.1 968.1 451.4 406.1 NA NA
Credit (Birr):
- Total issued 653,652 984,421 1,992,990 2,318,846 1,908,525 2,562,335 528,578 - Recovered in the year (2) 594,872 811,062 1,609,327 1,028,872 1.070.232 3,288,256 538,323
Source: Marketing, Credit and Cooperatives Division of WADU.
Notes: (1) Cash and Credit. (2) Includes previous years outstanding credit recoveries. f ETHIOPIA Second Wolaita Agricultural Development Project - Credit 486-ET
PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT
Materials Distributed to the Farmers and Farmer Participation each Year of WADU-II
Fertilizer Seed | Insecticide I Implements i Participationj |Year _ j * 1 I Qt | irr | Qt | Birr | Kg/Lt i Birr I No. ( Birr I Farmers
11974175 15,653 1 782,650 ! 1,185 1 52,391 1 25,020 I 77,206 1 877 1 44,960 1 15,659 1 11975/76 1 31,563 1 1,260,106 1 2,454 1 98,740 1 30,537 I 844,485 1 322 I 11,622 I 32,107 I 11976/77 1 43,546 1 1,774,460 1 2058 I 96,527 I 47,937 1 136,557 1 294 1 17,268 1 46,151 1 11977178 1 26,939 1 1,170,877 1 469 1 7,601 I 13,156 I 38,957 I 40 I 3,400 23,837 I 11978/79 1 32,725 I 1,827,840 1 390 1 20,866 1 31,744 92,762 1 38 I 3,954 I 24,415 I 11979/80 1 21,933 1 1,541,616 1 666 1 37,555 I 22,732 1 67,932 1 42 1 6,549 1 21,963 1 i 11980/81 1 7,766 710050 1 118 1 6,621 I 10,222 I 29,020 1 18 1 540 I 15,154
Source: Marketing, Creait and Cooperatives Division of WADU.
I e Annex 1 -36 - Table 6
ETHIOPIA Second Wolaita Agricultural Development Project - Credit 486-ET
PROJECT COPLETION REPORT
Summary of Credit Issued and Repayments
Cumulative Annual Cumulative Fiscal Credit Repayment* Outstanding Repayment* Repayments Year Issued Credit % - … ------Birr ------
1974/75 653,652.14 594,872.48 58,779.66 91 91 1975/76 984,421.00 811,062.85 232,137.81 82 86 1976/77 1,922,990.37 1,609,326.85 545,80L.33 84 85 1977/78 2,318,486.00 1,028,871.75 1,835,775.58 44 69 1978/79 1,908,525.42 1,070,231.80 2,674,069.20 56 66 1979/80 2,562,335.44 3,288,255.62 1,948,149.02 128 81 1980/81 528,578.07 538,323.30 1,938,393.79 102 82
Total 10,879,348.74 8,940,944.65 82
Source: Marketing Credit and CooperativesDivision of WADU.
* The above indicated credit repayments include the previous years' outstanding credit collection. Annex 1 Table 7
ETHIOPIA Second Wolaita Agricultural Development Project - Credit 486-ET
PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT
Producers' Cooperatives Outstanding Credit Balance of 1979/80 and 1980/81 as at July 7/81
Woreda Principal Interest Total
…------Birr ------Bolosso 5,195.85 109.45 5,305.30 Sodo Zuria 4,883.50 138.15 5,021.65 Koysha 46,858.65 4,909.30 51,767.95 Humbo 12,866.90 1,315.60 14,182.50 D. Weyde - - - D. Gale 3,172.35 85.55 3,257.90 Offa 2,544.00 381.60 2,925.60
Total 75,251.25 6,939.65 82,460.90 - 38 - Mnnex I Table 8 ETflIOPIA Second Wolaita Agriculturat Die nt Project - Credit 486-ET
PROJECT COMPLETIONREPORT
Service Cooperatives Outstanding Credit Balance of 1979/80 and 1980/81 as at July 7, 1981
Woreda Principal Interest Total
------_- Birr ------…------S. Zuria 100,177.10 641.50 100,818.60 Bolosso 142,110.20 3,312.70 145,422.90 Koysha 22,379.30 376.45 22,755.75 Humbo 6,606.30 660.60 7,266.90 D. Weyde 9,393.70 153.05 9,546.75 D. Gale 45,292.85 1,122.05 46,414.90 Offa 22,161.780 20.20 22,181.90
Total 348,121.15 6,286.55 354,407.90
Source: Marketing, Credit and Cooperatives Division of WAIDU. - 39 - Annex 1 Table 9 ETHIOPIA Second Wolaita Agricultural Development Project - Credit 486-ET
PROJECT COMPLETIONREPORT
Outstanding Credit Balance of Farmers upto and Including 1978/79 as at July 7, 1981
Woreda Principal Interest Total
…3i------Bi'r…------Bolosso 287,830.94 158,231.75 446,062.69 Soddo Zuria 284,871.55 130,002.73 414,874.28 Koysha 132,188.06 11,905.38 144,093.44 Humbo 154,158.88 76,676.19 230,835.07 Damot Weyde 24,217.84 11,8a4.09 36:101.93 Offa 38,505.19 12,427.15 50,932.34 Offa 109,810.86 49,936.85 157,747.71
Total 1,031,583.32 449,064.14 1,480,643.54
Source: Marketing, Credit and Cooperatives Division of WADU. FlIIOPIA Second IkliaAgricu1ur- D.vlpI=!!w PoEct Credit 486-B?
fJECIr caXrrE«sN BEitR
?roe Iiailed by (ooperativeSocieties
TyWpeof Unitl 1974/75 1975176 1 1976/77 1 1977178 1978/79 1979I&) _ Produce Qantity Value tlu I mtity Value (iantity Value Quantity Value Qntity value Birr Bitt Birr Birr Birr Birr
Coffee qts 1 679.99 211,147.701 1,555.38 85,297.0 1 4,877.16 316,758.16 I 1,2151.46 80,021.98 1 2,321.51 432,650.45 1 20,3Z6.14 609,802.35
Teff " | 996.16 66,104.751 3,969.31 166,107.02 | 378.01 19,818.231 - - - - I - - ctt I 3,991.67 203,257.871 1,956.18 203,833.96 1 4,415.69 449,141.81 1 3,262.90 32Z,692.97 1 1,736.76 190,245.23 1 1,500.00 165,000.00 (billies " 455.11 I 46,W8.771 - - 1 12.79 7,990.01 1 - - I - - I - - ° Maize 54L.47 16,284.381 10.46 202.601 - - - _ I - - I - I I I JI I I
Source: Marketing, Credit awr xiperativea Diviaio of WWIJ.
* Frn 1979(80 omrads de serice cooperatives themselves purchase their mnmers' prmhae and are selling it. No records am available of consolidated cooperative narketirg of produwe sine 1979/80. I.jtsr ETHIOPIA Second Wolaita Agricultural Development Project - Credit 486-ET
PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT
Key Indicators: Cross-Breeding and Pr,duction Activities
Activity 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 Total
Cross Breeding: Live Cover (no) 91 52 519 571 663 565 435 2,896 Al given - farners (1)(no) - - - 109 165 88 27 389 Al on Project farm (no) - - - 107 165 112 219 603
Poultry: Cockerels exchanged (no) - _ _ 442 913 1,491 566 3,412
Sales (2) Milk (litre) NA Eggs NA Bulls (breeding) (3) (no) - 1 - - 2 14 13 30 lieifers (no) * 1 - _ 1 8 10 20 Steers and bulls (meat)(no) - - 3 2 7 1 5 18
Notes: (1) One cow may be inseminated more than once and number of calves produced is not known. (2) Number of bulls produced on the Project farm transferred to bull stations is not known. (3) Includes all animals given or sold.
Source: Livestoc.kr)ivision of WABU.
& i ETHIOPIA Second Wolaita Agricultural Development Project - Credit 486-ET
PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT
Key Indicators - Animal Health Activities
Activity 1974/75 19751766 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980(81 -…--- No. ------
Vaccination: (lj
Rinderpest 120,844 265,123 238,304 249,555 354,217 322,508 114,922 1 CBPP 120,844 265,314 153 249,555 355,187 322,508 114,922 Black leg 78,726 55,289 64,687 55,387 50,076 56,481 18,541 ' Anthrax 33,643 64,575 137,900 43,497 42,875 11,319 60,029 Haemorrhagic Septicaemia - - 179 - - 389 248 Foot and Mouth Disease 162 147 1,027 200 - 279 - Rabies 41 9 - - - - = Trypanosomiasis 1,656 2,576 4,014 7,339 10,866 16,892 3,098 African Horse Sickness - - - 131 - 212 - Newcastle Disease - - - - 1,200 1,870 -
Other:
Anthelmintics 21 586 586 214 1,051 8,958 2.137 Miscellaneous (2) 429 580 4,108 1,640 1,813 7,695 2,615 Dip/spraying of cattle - - - - 21,468 8,?81 5,402 Lab. Diagnosis - - 236 14 511 2,583 2,150 Hides and skins insp. - - - - - 127,018 87,745
Slaughter house insp. - 2,854
Source: Livestock Division, WADU. Notes: (1) Includes treatments on the Project Farms. x (2) Includes castration and clinical treatments. ETHIOPIA SecondWolaita Agricultural Development Project - Credit486-ET
PROJECTCOMPLETION REPORT
Key Indicators - Soil and Water Conservation
Description 74175 75176 76177 77/78 78/79 79180 80f81 Total
Soil conservation by bunding (ha) 3,544 2,375 2,591 2,325 2,765 12,055 5,836 31,511 Drainage - (metres) 63200 17,800 33,024 57.024 - (ha) 30 4,535 115 12 5.990 Springprotection 59 161 148 133 103 255 232 1.091 Cleaning(development) (8) (8) Riverdiversion I 1 2 1 5 f Selectionof hydram installationsites 7 14 25 1 47 W Selectionof sites for wells, pondsand dams 100 100 Construction of wells (1) 1 13 Z2 34 Roof Catchment I I Establishment of nursery sites 2 3 1 4 7 11 (2) Production of seedlings (3) 65 200 2,00i 4,500 7,966 5,700 (4) 4.314 (5) 24.745 Afforestarion - (trees) (3) 34 200 432 2,000 3,213 3,B63 4.885 14,627 - (ha) 55 76 172 349 1,624 1,318 431 3,975 Road alignment survey (km) 107 167 15 289
Source: Soil and Water Conservation Section, WADU. Notes: (1) InvolvesInfrastructure Division for technicalassistance. (2) Currentlyin operation, 7 of which are operated by cooperatives. (3) In thousands. > (4) 1,014,048 to areas outside Wolaita Awraja. (5) 882,000 to areas outside Wolaita Awraja. - 44 - Annex 1I Table 14 -ETHIOPIA Second Wolaita Agricultural Develo'ment Project - Credit 486-ET
PROJECT COQPLETION REPORT
Key Indicators - Building Construction
Building Number
Cooperative Stores 39 Rural Artisan Centers 7 REDAresidences 12 Crop and Pasture research stores 3 ExtensionOffices 4 Rehabilitation of Coffee factories 4 Poultry farm/research buildings 3 Sheep barn 1 Cattle barn 1 aiogas plants 1 Cattle dips 2 Erosion study (hydrometric) site 1 Staff residences 6 Veterinary clinic and laboratory 1 Central store 1 Central garage and workshop 1 Crop and Pasture Section Office 1 Stores (garage, research) 3 Staff clinic 1
Source: Building Section of WADU.
Note: In addition to the above, a number of buildings and other constructions have been undertaken for non-WADU purposes (see Annex 2). Also the Head Office complex was built under contract for WADU. - 45 - Annex I Table 15 ETHIOPIA Second Wolaita Agricultural Develupment Project - Credit 486-ET
PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT
Key Indicators - Water Supply
Development
Projects coumpled;
- Boreholes (no) 13 - River diversion/hydrams (no) 2 - Stock potids (no) 3 - Spring development (no) 3
People served (estimated) (no) 100,000 Livestock served (minimum) (no) 3,000
Total cash costs: - Self-help and other (estimated) B 907,000 - WADU (Category VII of Expenditure) B 866,000
Source: InfrastructureDivision of WADU. - 46 - Annex I Table 16 ETHIOPIA Second Wolaita Agricultural Development Project - Credit 486-ET
PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT
Key Indicators - Road Construction
Description 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 Total
Minor Roads (km) 75 99 66 55 80 96 85 556 Track Roads (kEn) 25 31 38 100 53 51 55 353
Source: Infrastructure Division of WADU.
Note: Construction activities also included fords, culverts, bridges and drainage. ETHIOPIA Second Wolafta Agricultural-Development Project - Credit 486-ET
PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT
Self-Help Water Projects Initiated by WADU
No. Year Location Woreda Type of Water Plant Total Cost Cost Incurred by Completed in Birr WADU
1. 1977 Fate D. Gale Hydram 30,000 5,000 plus staff (Highland) services 2. 1978 Boditti D. Gale Borehole 176 deep 6kms Engineering Design (Highland) o/Katerak pipes of 7 watering 210,000 and staff services points, and storage 3. 1977 Belle I Koysha Borehole 80m deep, (settlement) generator, lateral pipe 45,000 35,000 watering point, storage 4. 1977 Belle II Koysha Borehole 12m deep (settlement) Hand pump 34,000 30,000 4 5. 1977 llobitcha Soddo Zuria (Highland) Borehole 150m deep 22,500 22,500 6. 1977 Bombe Bolloso Stream Diversion Rehabilita- tion of pipeline, pump 45,000 5,000 maintenance 7. 1979 Konto Soddo Zuria Spring Protection, pipe works, (Highland) watering points 35,000 7,500 8. 1978 Humbo Rehabilitation Works Spring (settlement) Lateral Spring Lateral 40,000 5,000 9. 1979 Gesupa Offa (Lowland) Spring Construction main and Lateral pipes 90,000 Staff services 10. 1979 Abella D. Gale Rehabilitation, Spring 2 pipe- 45,000 3,000 plus staff Bedessa line services il. 1975 Project Soddo Borehole, pump 60,000 60,000 Centre 12. 1980 Areka Bolloso Borehole, pump 120,000 Staff services X 13. 1980 Bombe Bolloso Borehole, pump 130,000 Staff services -a
Source: Infrastructture Division of WADU. ETHIOPIA Second Wolaita Agricultural Development Project - Credit 486-ET
PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT
Water Supply Projects Undertaken by WADU as per Revised Water Program Implementationapproved by IDA
No. Year Location Woreda Type of Water Plant TotaL Cost Cost Incurred by Completed in Birr WADU*
1. 1980181 Buge D. Gale Pump. Generator (Highland) Watering Points 108,000 108,000
2. 1980181 Fango D. Weide Borehole, i50m pump, gen- 155,000 155,000 (Highland) water points
3. 1980/81 Abella I Humbo Borehole 80m deep pump, (settlement) Gen Water points 95,000 95,000
4. 1980/81 Abella II Humbo Borehole 90o deep pump (settlement) Generators water points 110,000 110,000
5. 1980181 Belle I Koysha Borehole, 75m deep pump Generator, water points 90,000 90,000
6. 1980/81 Bet;' II Koysha Borehole, 110m deep Generator (settlement) pump, water points 135,000 135.000
* Repayment from water charges would commence in 1982.
Source; Infrastructure Division of WADU.
lbOH F Annex 2- -49 -
ETHIOPIA Second Wolaita Agricultural Development Project - Credic 486-ET
PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT
Calculations of Agricultural Impact and Financial Analysis
Crop Production
1. Yields. In this analysis average yield increments using inputs are assumed to be: Incremental Yield Total Yield
maize _ 500 kg/ha 2,000 kg/ha teff - 200 kg/ha 650 kg/ha cotton - 250 kg/ha 500 kg/ha
The assumption of these average yields takes account of annual yield variations due to climatic conditions, disease incidence and other factors. It is, however, possible that the yields assumed understate the actual yields obtained. There is good reason to be cautious since farmers tend to apply fertilizers at lower rates than recommended, hybrid maize seed is re-used, and plant densities (from low seeding and germination rates) are much lower than recommended by research. Sales to cooperatives could not be used as an indication, because of the substantial sales to private traders, who offer better prices and sometimes collect produce from farms.
Z. Areas Cropped based on Inputs. Calculations of project impact are based on estimates of crop areas treated with inputs and ase-d incremental production is attributed to the project.
Estimated Areas of Crops Cultivated Based on Fertilizer Use
Year Area 1/ Maize Teff Cotton 2/
------he ------
1974/75 15,000 8,250 6,000 1,750 1975/76 31,000 17,050 12,400 1,550 1976/77 43,000 23,650 17,200 2,150 1977/78 27,000 14,850 10,800 1,350 1978/79. 33,000 18,150 13,200 1,650 1979/80 22,000 12,100 8,800 1,100 1980/81 8,000 4,400 3,200 400
1/ Total area is based on fertilizer use. 2/ Proportions of each crop assumed of the total area are: maize - 55% teff - 40% cotton - 5%
3. Value of Incremental Production. The lack of available data for satisfactory impact evaluation has reduced the calculation of impact of WADP-II on crop production to general estimates that rest on assumptions of yields and areas cropped. 50 Annex 2 Page 2
Amount and Gross Value of Incremental Production
Incremental Production Year Maize Teff Cotton Maize Teff Cotton Total
… tonnes …-- … Birr 000'- … 1974/75 4,125 1,200 438 743 288 210 1,241 1975/76 8,525 2,480 388 1,876 843 330 3,049 1976/77 11,825 3,440 538 2,129 1,548 520 4,269 1977/78 7,425 2,160 338 1,485 1,015 392 2,892 1978/79 9,075 2,640 413 1,997 1,320 454 3,771 1979/80 6,050 1,760 275 1,513 915 413 2,841 1980/81 2,200 640 100 616 346 180 1,142
4. There is no information available on cropping patterns, although it is known that increased cultivation of land (new areas brought into production) occurred as a result of the Land Proclamation Act of 1975. Changes due to land refora or project activities cannot be segregated because of a lack of baseline and annual crop and farm area data. There is no evidence that the impact of WADP-II has resulted in the adoption of new cropping patterns. It is possible that incremental production in the district is higher because MOA personnel now consider the district mostly a food grain export area, while it was importing food crops before the project was implemented.
5. Other Annual Crops. The analysis, unfortunatly,must ignore other crops that might have benefited from the WADU program, either through the use of inputs, or as a result of improved cultivation practices. For example, farmers are known to use some inputs on wheat. The data base is too small to extrapolate the data any further than has already been done.
Coffee Production
6. Stumped Coffee Trees. WADU has undertaken an extension campaign to encourage farmers to stump (cutting old trees about 30 cm above the ground) and prune low producing coffee trees to increase productivity from new growth. Trees are stumped in January. Incremental production is assumed to be 0.5kg per tree in the third year after pruning and 1.0 kg thereafter. All production is in dried, unshelled coffee. Half the trees treated are assumed to give increased production. The value of production is calculated on the basis of prevailing cooperative prices which are based on national prices obtained from sale to coffee purchasing authorities. Since most of the production from the project area is believed to be handled by the Ministry of Coffee and Tea Development (although considerable sales are made to private marketers because of the shortage of coffee in Addis Ababa and other towns). Net production foregone due to stumping has been assumed to be zero, since it is the experience of extension workers that farmers stump only unproductive trees. Annex 2 -51- Page 3
7. CBD - Resistant Coffee Trees. The project has been raising and distributing coffee seedlings of 11 CBD-registant and high yielding coffee varieties since the 1979/80 season. Records of the seedlings distributed and those surviving have been maintained by the Extension and Training Division. However, yields from these varieties in the project area are not known and neither are yields of the local varieties, although some trials were conducted at Soddo and Dubo. All released varieties have been yieLding from 2 kg to over 4 kg of dried unshelled coffee per tree under research conditions. Local varieties are believed to yield 1 kg to 2 kg of dried, unshelled coffee per tree, but are extremely susceptible to CBD. Consequently, yields vary each year and, even in a good year, CBD is present and reduces yields.
8. Improved varieties of trees are therefore expected to yield at least 1 kg of dried, unshelled coffee per tree more than local varieties, even under the same traditional management conditions. These types also begin to produce earlier, usually in the second season after planting. However, even greater yield increases can be expected f om both stumped trees and improved types if recommended managements practices of mulching, manuring, pruning and spacing are adopted. Quality improvements have also been generated by the project by picking only red cherries and by drying on racks above ground. The following production benefits have been assuaed:
Coffee Production from Stumped Trees
Number of Trees treated and Incremental Value of Project productive Production Production Year (no) (qtl) (Birr '000)
1 8,000 - 2 20,000 3 19,000 _ _ 4 47,000 4,000 2,800 5 10,000 18,000 14,400 6 27,000 37,500 33,750 7 28,000 70,500 65,565 a - 99,000 92,070 9 - 117,500 109,275 10 - 145,000 134,850 11 - 159,000 147,870
Coffee Production from CBD-resistant Trees
Trees Trees Incremental Value of Project Distributed Surviving (1) Production Product i Year (no) (no) (qtl) (Birr ' .OC L _ 2 - 3 - 4 _ 5 - 6 - 7 21,250 4,000 8 7,969 5,600 - - 9 - 5,600 2,000 1,860 10 - 5,600 4,800 4,464 il - 5,600 5,600 5,208
Note: (1) 20% survival in year 7 (dry year); 70% thereaft2r. Annex 2 - 52- Page 4
Livestock Production
9. Cross-breeding. An estimated 20,000 cows per year were to be crossbred with live Friesian bulls and by Al. By 1983/84 some 752 of matings were to be by Al.
The expected benefits to the livestock program were:
(i) increasedmilk production by 6501 lactations; (ii) increased animal offtake (by 51%) through:
(a) 50% to 70% calving rate increases; (b) 250 kg to 400 kg offtake weight increase; (c) increased growth rate; (d) reduced mortality.
(iii) stronger work oxen.
The components of this section of the program at Appraisal included: (i) cross-breedingusing bulls at 20 bull stations; (ii) upgrading of the 20 bull stations; (iii) establishing an AI service:
(a) train 14 inseminators; (b) inseminate increasingproportion at bull stations; (c) appoint 4 high level staff; (d) appoint 27 demonstrators/inseminators
10. The impact was expected to take some time to accrue and the &fftake increase is projected at 14,100 animals (2,500,000 kg meat) by the end of the 12th year of the project. This would also mean an increase in hides and skins available. However, only 2,896 live and 389 .I services have been given during the project. Of these, some are repeat services but the number is not known. No more than 2,500 calves could have been produced from these. (Number of calves produced and the success of crossbred cattle are not known). It is, however, clear that whatever impact has taken place (or will take place in the future as a result of these past crosses) is insignificantgiven the total cattle population of the project area (estimated at 750,000). Of the 23 bull stations only 10 were in operation with 14 bulls in Late 1981. It is extremely doubtful that net benefits will accrue to the farmers in the long run due to the additional problems of nutrition, fertility, husbandry requirements and health imposed by the exotic blood.
11. Health Services. At appraisal, the project was to involve continuation of the service began under WADU-I but with expansion:
(1) greater diagnostic support services; (2) additional extension demonstrators; (3) 11 vaccinators (as for WADP-I); (4) 2 animal health assistants (as for WADP-I); (5) animal health officer; and (6) monitoring animal health.
The field service was to include monitoring, innoculation, disease diagnosis and simwle treatments. Dipping ls not mentioned in the SAR and sheep and goats were not specificallyincluded in the program as outlined. Annex 2 Page 5
12. WADU has concentrated successfully on the control of the major infectious diseases as part of the national program. No outbreaks of the major infectious diseases of rinderpest, contagious bovince pleuro pneumonia or foot and mouth disease have been reported in the last five years. Trypanos#oniiasisin lowland areas and tick-borne diseases remain the most important problems. WADU carries out a very limited clinical service due to the high costs of such a program and to transport problems. Little attention has been given to sheep and goats and no systematic studies of animal diseases and their impact have been made.
13. The project has constructed a well equipped laboratory but a shortage of trained technicians and analytical chemicals has limited the use of the laboratory to a negligible proportion of its actual capacity (a Cuban technical assistant has been employed during the last few years of the Project). Two dips have been constructed in lowland areas, mainly in response to the incidence of tick-borne and skin diseases in crossbred animals in Humbo. One of the dips is no longer functional. No monitoring of the impact of the animal health activities of WADU has been undertaken. Consequently the impact of the Project on animal survival and production cannot be determined. Since the impact of disease control is not monitored, "guesstimates"must once again be introduced to indicate the possible impact of WAADU.
14. One quarter of the net herd growth rate is assumed to be attributable to disease control. The value of the incremental production which results is expressed as annuaL sales of 4 year old cattle (average price for male/female adult). The incremental offtake and prices assumed for livestock result in a conservative estimate of the impact of WADU on livestock production in the project area.
Value of Incremental Cattle Production
Cattle growth Incremental Unit Total Year Rate at 4% Productionl/ Value Value 2/ (no) (no) (Birr) (Birr'O00)
1974/75 550,000 1975/76 572,000 5,500 1976/77 595,000 5,750 1977/78 619,000 6,000 1978/79 643,000 6,000 6 669,000 6,500 3/ 160 880 7 696,000 6,750 200 1,150 8 - - 200 1,200 9 - 200 1,200 10 - 200 1,350 11 - 200 1,350
1/ Production attributable to WADU. 2/ Price is based on June-September local prices (unfactened cattle, not sold for the Maskal festivities). 3/ Incremental offtake is sold at 4 years (3 '000). - 54 - Annex 2 Page 6
foil Conservation
'L5. Soil conservation has produced one of the highly visible impacts of {tbeWADU Project because erosion is often dramatic, and where rehabilitation ,has been effected the comparison is impressive. An estimate of the Dincrementalvalue derived from soil conservation are made. It should be noted that most of the land selected for treatment by PAs is usually of very low productivity.
The following are the most important achievements of the program:
Soil Conservation - 31,511 hectares Improved Drainage - 6,120 " Afforestation - 3,975 t 14,627 trees
16. Conserved Land. The main methods of conserving land have been bund construction, contour ploughing and strategic tree planting with adapted species. The SAR provides an estimate of decreased production of 5% over 20 years from erosion on unprotected land with a 10-15% slope. The gross margin from traditional cultivation of double cropping of teff and maize each fear is estimated to be at least B 66 in 1980/81 prices. It has been assumed that the benefits from conservation of land commenced to accrue from end of 1980/81. Benefits which might have accrued before 1981/82 would be very small. The total gross value of production is estimated at B 1.040 million per annum (15,755 hectares x B 66 as only half the conserved area is assumed to be used for crop production). Although the remainder would produce benefits, at least in the form of livestock grazing, it has not been taken into account in this analysis. The assumptions thus provide conservativeestimates of the value of the soil conservation component of the Project.
17. Drained Land. It has been assumed that the drained land is used for increased crop production and produces a single crop of maize each year with a yield of 1,500 kg (i.e. traditional production without improvements). Poorly-drained land is used by farmers for dry season grazing, or for low yielding crops. The loss of the grazing value would be offset by the forage value of crop residues. In addition, it is probable that land is used more intensively than for a single crop each year. The following benefits have been assumed: Annex 2 Page 7
Benefits of boil Conservation
Year Proportion of Value of Production Production Saved Saved (%) (Birr '000) 1* (1981/82) 0.2 2 2 0.4 4 3 0.5 5 4 0.7 7 5 0.9 9 6 1.1 11 7 1.3 14 8 1.5 15 9 L.7 17 10 2.0 20 11 2.3 23 12 2.6 27 13 (1) 2.9 30 14 3.2 33 15 3.5 36 16 3.8 40 17 4.1 43 18 4.4 46 19 4.7 49 20 5.0 52
Note: (1) Year 20 of the Project.
18. It is further assumed that half the drained area is used for crop production. The benefits shown below are therefore likely to be somewhat understated (1980/81 maize prices are used).
Estimated Value of Incremental Production from Drained Land
Area Area Incremental Value of Year Drained Cropped Production Price Increm. Prod (ha) (ha) (tons) Birr/Tonne (Birr '000)
1 (1974/75) 36 2 4,535 15 22 220 5 3 1,298 2,283 3,424 180 616 4 - 2,932 4,398 200 880 5 130 2,932 4,398 220 880 6 115 2,997 4,495 250 1,124 7 12 3,054 4,581 280 1,283 8 - 3,060 4,590 280 1,285
19. Afforestation. No monetary benefits are calculated for the afforestation program. Trees are still young and will not be fully grown and ready for cropping for another 7 to 8 years. However, the program has the potential to produce very significant financial benefits for PAs and cooperatives in the form of timber, extracts, by-products and fruit. - 56 - Annex 2 Page 8
Financial Analysis
20. A financial analysis has been completed for the project as a whole by valuing as benefits the project impact on crop and livestock production and soil conservation in financial terms, and IDA and GOE contributions to the project as costs. The indirect costs of the project - borne by the Government - have not been included as project costs. Indirect costs include outstanding input debts, veterinary drugs, interest on Ministry of Finance bridging finance and an allowance for Ministry of Agriculture indirect costs.
21. Benefits. Valuation of project impact (benefits) has been given in the preTedjng paragraphs and is summsarized in the table below; project benefits are calculated as the financial value of crop and livestock production and soil conservation.
Total Financial Benefits of WADP-II
Incremental Value Annual Soil Year Crops Coffee Livestock Conservation Total …Birr '000 ------…
1975/76 1,594 1,599 1976/77 2,244 616 2,860 1977/78 1,671 3 880 2,554 1978/79 1,926 14 880 2,720 1979/80 1,187 34 880 1,124 3,225 1980/81 396 66 1,150 1,283 2,895 i981/82 396 1/ 92 1,200 1,285 2,973 1982/83 111 1,200 1,159 2,470 1983/84 139 1,300 1,031 2,344 1984/85 159 1,350 905 2,408 1985/86 153 1,350 1/ 779 2,282 1986/87 153 653 806 1987/88 146 527 873 1988/89 127 395 522 1989/90 109 274 383 1990/91 65 148 213 1991/92 56 23 79 1992/93 31 27 58 1993/94 5 30 35 1994/95 2 15 17
Note: 1/ Residual impact after project completion.
22. Estimates of benefits in each case rests on a number of assumptions:
(i) Annual Crops: Impact of WADU is assumed to decline to nil after the 1981/82 season if no further program activities are undertaken; (ii) Coffee: Stumped trees remain productive for 10 years after commencing production and then decline again. Trees of new varieties continue to produce for at least 10 years; (iii) Livestock: Without the livestock disease control program the benefits are expected to be lost very rapidly because there will be no control of livestock movement, and disease foci are present; 57 - Annex 2 Page 9
(iv) Soil Conservation: Benefits fronmbunding and contouring have been projected to accrue over the life of the project. Drained land productivity is assumed to fall by 10% per year from 1982/83 (Year 8) without further project intervention.
23. Costs. Project costs are the direct financial allocations made by IDA and the Government to the project. The 1981/82 expenditures include estimates of final IDA reimbursementsand the outstanding costs that will have to be borne by the Government. Indirect costs are not included. Total costs are therefore summarised as:
Project Costs
IDA GOE Year Component Component Total
1975/76 2,069 1,395 3,464 1976/77 2,569 1,765 4,334 1977/78 4,136 2,326 6,462 1978/79 3,069 2,380 5,449 1979/80 1,134 2,281 3,415 1980/81 5,774 2,129 7,903 1981/82 1,599 1/ 3,570 1/ 5,169 I/
1/ Estimates.
For discounting purposes all transactions are expressed in 1980/81 values. Inflation rates for pre-1980/81 transactions were derived from the General Price Index for Addis Ababa.
Inflator
1975/76 1.85 1976/77 1.53 1977/78 1.31 1978/79 1.14 1979/80 1.04
24. Salvage or Terminal Values. An estimate of the salvage value of those items of capital which are readily used for other activities on projects is made:
Total Project Residual Value Cost Assumed Birr '000 Birr '000
Buildings, including 1,433 85% 1,218 Cooperative Stores 969 85% 824 Machinery and Equipment 689 50% 345 Vehicles 1,040 25% 260 4,131 2,647 Annex 2 - 58 - Page 10
Roads, water supply and other infrastructuredevelopment have not been included because these will require maintenance expenditures, and without the projection of these costs a salvage value has Little meaning. Depreciated values could be used but are extremely difficult to calculate. Finally, a proportion of the roads and water supplies are not functional at present.
Calculation of Financial Rate of Return
25. The financial rate of return is calculated using the cash flow analysis. All transactionsare expressed in 1980/81 values. A salvage value has been included as a benefit in 1981/82. The heavy financial commitments for the project and the assumed and calculated lower than expected benefits result in a negative return of -5.63%.
"Cash" Flow Schedule - Financial Analysis
Total Value Total Project "Cash" Year of Benefits Costs Fiow ------Birr 'OOO------
1975/76 2,958 6,408 (3,450) 1976/77 4,376 6,631 (2,255) 1977/78 3,346 8,465 (5,119) 1978/79 3,101 6,212 (3,111) 1979/80 3,354 3,553 C 199) 1980/81 2,895 7,903 (5,008) 1981/82 5,620 1/ 5,169 451 1982/83 2,470 2,470 1983/84 2,334 2,344 1984/85 2,408 2,408 1985/86 2,282 2,282 1986/87 806 806 1987/88 673 673 1988/89 527 527 1989/90 383 383 1990/91 213 213 1991/92 79 79 1992/93 58 58 1993/94 35 35 1994/95 17
1/ Includes salvage value of B 2,647,000.00.
26. Common Factor for Discounting. In order to calculate the financial rate of return it is necessary to express all transactions at a comnmonvalue since values prior to 1980/81 are calculated in the relevant years; after 1980/81 all values are expressed in 1980/81 values. - 59 - Annex 3
ETHIOPIA Second Wolaita Agricultural Development Proiect- Credit 486-ET
PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT
Schedule of Disbursements
Appraisal Estimate Actual Half-year Half- Half- Ending Yearly Cumulative Ytearly Cumulative
1974/75 December 1974 0 June 1975 1,400 1,400 0 0
1975/76 December 1975 1,500 2,900 361 361 June 1976 900 3,800 639 1,000
1976/77 December 1976 700 4,500 629 1,629 June 1977 800 5,300 609 2,238
1977/78 December 1977 1,00 6,300 823 3,061 June 1978 1,000 7,300 1,175 4,236
1978/79 December 1978 1,200 8,500 507 4,743 June 1979 1,200 9,700 976 5,719
1979/80 December 1979 1,200 10,900 1,050 6,769 June 1980 1,100 12,000 84 6,853
1980/81 December 1980 1,492 8,345 June 1981 711 9,056
1981/82 December 1981 590 9,646 June 1982 156 9,802 i982/83 December 1982 1,818 11,620
Total: 12,000 12,000 11,620 11,620 - 60 - Annex 4 Page 1 ETHIOPIA Second Wolaita Agricultural Development Project - Credit 486-ET
PROJECT COMPLETION REUORT
Performance Covenants
The implementation of the project is discussed here in relation to the main performance covenants of the Credit Agreement. Only those covenants for which performance was inadequate are considered.
Seczion 3.01: The Borrower shall carry out the project through the Extension and Project Implementation Department of its Ministry of Agriculture (hereinafterEPID-WADU), and with the assistance, inter alia, of other appropriate agencies and instrumentalities of the Borrower with due diligence and efficiency and in conformity with appropriate administrative, agricultural, engineering and financial practices and shall provide, promptly as needed, the funds, facilities, services and other resources required for the purpose.
Actual: EPID was disbanded in 1970 and its functions distributed to other departments in MOA. Little assistance was provided by other agencies to WADU, and project direction and support from MOA was inadequate, while the provision of funds by MOF was often late and insufficient for satisfactory operation of WADU.
Section 3.02: The Borrower shall cause WADU to provide adequate and appropriate staff, and such consultancy services as may be n cessary to support it, for the purpose of the timely carrying out of the studies included in Part (4) of the Project. The Borrower shall consult with the Association to determine the staffing and consultancy services requirements of the said studies, and the terms of reference therefor.
Actual: There were continued staff shortages at the higher and middle level, and staff turnover was high. WADU and MOA were slow to implement the soil conservation study and to select and finalize arrangements with consultants. WADU did not carry out studies on land use and farming systems in the project area. The studies for settlement and ranching were not required after land reform in 1975.
Section 3.05 (a): (Subsidiary Loan Agreement) .... the Borrower shall relend one milliotieight hundred thousand dollars (1,800,000) or such other sum as the Association shall from time to time agree, to AIDB for the purpose of financing the provision of seasonal credits under Parts (1) and (2) of the Project for farm inputs in the Project Area. AIDB shall provide the said seasonal credits through cooperatives and WADU, under terms and conditions approved by the Association.
(b) The Borrower shall exercise its rights under the subsidiary loan agreement in such manner as to protect the interests of the Borrower and the Association and to accomplish the purposes of the Credit. Except as the Association shall otherwise agree, the Borrower shall not assign, amend, abrogate or waive the subsidiary loan agreement or any provision thereof. - 61 - Annex 4 Page 2
Actual: The Subsidiary Loan Agreement was not implemented, although signed in 1975, as AIDB did not exercise its rights to draw down funds and the Revolving Fund was not established. AIDB did provide seasonal credit gfforinputs through WADU and in December 1981 IDA reimbursed US$ 5CZ,778 to AIDB under the appropriate DCA category following '-he subtiission of an amended subsidiary loan agreement, satisfactory to EDA.
Section 3.06: The Borrower shall cause WADU or AIDB, as the case may be, to .elend co cooperatives and CMhCs in the Project Area all funds necessary for the acquisition of cooperative stores and offices and the equipment thereof, constructed or purchased under the Project, on terms and conditions to be approved by the Ass.ociation.
Actual: WADU constructed the stores and bore most of the costs thereof. At IDS ;nsistence WADU signed contracts with cooperatives for up to 12 years at zero interest. The contracts provide for repayment to WADU of half the construction costs of the cooperative stores.
Section 3.07: The Borrower shall cause WADU to adopt project evaluation procedures acceptable to the Association.
Actual: An evaluation of the project was carried out by EPID in 1977/78 and again in late 1981 (by a consultant as the basis for Government's PCR). The findings of the first evaluation were not implemented and WADU did not effectively apply data collection, monitoring and evaluation of its activities. Project benefits could therefore not be accurately determined.
Section 4.01 (a): The Borrower shall maintain or cause to be maintained records adequate to reflect in accordance with consistently maintained appropriate accounting practices the operations, resources, and expenditures, in respect of the Project, of the departments or agencies of the Borrower responsible for carrying out the Project or any pat thereof.
Actual: WADU accounts have been inadequately maintained and accurate costings are not possible.
Section 4.01 (b): (Auditing of WADU, cooperatives and the revolving funds and provision of audited financial statements within six months of end of each financial year).
Actual: The state of WADU accounts was such that, since commencement, all audits have been heavily qualified. At the end of the 1980/8i FY audits to end of 1976/77 only had been prepared. Thereafter a major undertaking was required by the Borrower to bring accounts and audits up-to-date as IDA withheld reimbursements under Statement of Expenditures (SOE) and for the construction costs for cooperative stores under Category V of DCA. Following the audit of SOEs and all outstanding annual accounts IDA, following some adjustments to disbursement requests, resumed disbursements in September 1982.
Section 4.03: The Borrower shall cause WADU to prepare a plan of work in advance of each fiscal year to be approved by the Borrower and the Association, and shall advance to WADU at three monthly intervals such sums as may be required to enable WADU to carry out the succeeding quarter's portion of the said approved annual plan of work. - 62 - Annex 4 Page 3
Actual: Work plans and budgets were prepared each year but often not in advance, and their approval by IDA was not always sought. Work plans were not based on evaluation of effectiveness of past project activities but on attempts te meet physical targets.
Funds were not advanced to WADU at three-monthly intervals by KOF. A poor accounting performance by WADU and its inefficiency at presenting reimbursement applications were stated as the main reasons for altering the payment system. Also GOE's shortage of funds was at times the constraining factor to adhering to the agreed system of WADU funding.
Section 4.06: The Borrower shall provide or cause to be provided promptly as needed all funds necessary and take or cause to be taken all other action as may be required to adequately maintaining the roads and tracks to be constructed under the Project.
Actual: This was not implemented. At the end of December 1981 approximately 30% of all tracks and roads constructed under WADP-II were not passable (a higher proportion would have been impassable in wet weather). WADU and the District authorities have not adequately organized villages for adequately maintaining roads, water supplies, etc.
Section 4.07. The Borrower shall cause WADU at all times to employ qualified and experienced staff, and shall consult with the Association prior to the initial or new appointment of the personnel to the following positions in WA.DU: (i) Director; and, (ii) Heads of the (A) Extension and Training Division, (b) Marketing and Credit Division, (C) Finance Division, (D) Cooperative Development Section and (E) Artificial Insemination Section.
Actual: WADU suffered from high turnover of senior and middle level staff and long periods in which important positions were not filled. This situation detracted from project performance. It was most unfortunate that the original position of Deputy Director was abolished, since the incumbent could have played a significant role in the coordination of activities of the various divisions, sections and units in WADU. ImplementationSchedule : Projectedand Actual (Targetsand Achievements of MajorProject Components)
As at j | 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979)80 1980/81 ITotal by Project|Achteve- June301 Project II Closure I ments 1975 | Components lProJ. Act. Proj. Act. Proj. Act. Proj. Act. Proj. Act. Proj. Act. I Proj. Act. | E I CROPPRODUCTION: I I 11,700 IFarmer participating (no)? 18.700 32,107 30,400 46,151 46,800 23,837 60,800 24,415 72,600 21,963 84,300 15,1541 89,000 15,1541 17.0 22.000ILand area (ha) | 30,000 N/A 42,000 N/A 60,000 N/A 75,000 N/A 87,000 N/A 99,000 N/A 1105,000 N/A I - IRURALROADS I 75 |Mfnor Roads(Kin) I 99 99 85 66 79 55 58 80 45 96 - 851 j66 4811 131.4 25 iTrack Roads (Km) | 55 3 57 38 28 100 37 53 48 51 - 551 235 3281 139.6 (WATERSUPPLY I I I (Wellsconstructed (no)[ 7 1 50 0 50 0 50 0 50 13 50 12 230 *4; . ISprings(cleaning) I/(no)l 7 161 20 148 20 133 20 103 20 225 20 232) 87 1.03211.186.2 (Roofcatchtnent 'io)l 7 1 - -- - - 1 200 1i 0.5 IHydrams (no)| 7 - 10 - 10 - 10 -o - 47 of 0 |boreholes21 (no)| 0 131 - iFamiliessupplied (no)| | 61,750 20.0001 32.4 ISOILCONSERVATION I I 3.544 IRundingand contouring(ha)4,200 2,375 4,200 2,591 4,200 2,325 4,200 2,785 4,200 12,055 - 5,836121,000 27.9671 133.2 2 iTree nurseries (nofl 14 3 1 4 71 14 III 78.6 W 30 lDrainage (ha) 3/ I 0 4,535 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 115 0 121 0 4,6621 - s5 |TreePlanting (ha) 4/ 0 76 0 172 0 349 0 1.624 0 1,3'8 0 4311 0 3,9701 - ILIVESTOCKDEVELOPMENT I 20 fOullstattons (no)l j 23(10)6/ 91 ILive Cover5/ (no)l20,000 52 18,650 519 17300 571 16,000 663 14,700 565 12,500 4351 31,800 2,8051 23.8 fArtificialInseminations |I I I 5/(no)| - - 1,350 - 2,700 109 4,000 165 5,300 88 7,500 27( 8,200 3891 4.7 360 )Vaccinations('000) 1 - 653 - 446 - 606 - 814 - 732 - Jill - 3,5621 llncrementalofftake cattle I I I !/(no)) - N/A - N/A 1,100 N/A 3,100 N/A 4,400 N/A 5,000 N/A | 5,50C N/A | Jlncremental milk I I I
I ('000 1) 5/ I - N/A - N/A 630 N/A 1,175 N/A 2,475 N/A 2.860 NJA| 3,155 N/A -_ Jlmprovedcockereis (no)| - - 4,000 - 4,000 42 4,000 913 4,000 1.492 4.000 566? 20.000 3.412 17-1 (COFFEEI4PROVEMENTS I I I iFamers (no)l 1,000 N/A 1,000 N/A 1,000 N/A 1,000 N/A 1,000 N/A - N/A 1 5,000 N/A I - 8,000jTrees stumped (no)?25,000 20,000 25.000 19,00025.000 47,000 25,000 10.00025,000 27,000 - 28,000(125,000153,000 120.8 ; |Areatreated (ha) 1 14.3 NJA 14.3 N/A 14.3 N/A 14.3 N/A 14.3 N/A - N/A 71.5 N/A| - 21,500lIncremental Production (no)t3,200) N/A (5,300) NJA (6,400) N/A (4.300)N/A (1,500) N/A 3,400 N/A | 3,400 N/A | - llmprovedtrees (no)l - - - - - 21,9281 - 21,928| -
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