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Drivers Impacting the Forest Sector • 99 DRIVERS IMPACTING THE FOREST SECTOR 4 INTRODUCTION The direction of forest and forestry development is largely determined by factors external to the sector and, in particular, larger societal changes. The impacts of these on forests and forestry may be direct or indirect. External factors may include changes in demography, the economic situation, policies and institutions, advancements in science and technology and, perhaps most importantly, the responses of society to critical environmental changes; these often have an overwhelming impact on how forests are managed. Growing concerns about the provision of ecosystem services, especially in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation, have added new dimensions to the sphere of forest management. Collectively, these changes modify society’s behaviours, altering the nature of goods and services demanded and how these are produced and consumed. These larger changes also affect policies and programmes in other sectors, impacting on forests and forestry through backward and forward linkages. The main drivers of change and their impacts on forests and forestry are outlined in the following sections. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES Demographic changes have an overwhelming impact on land use, in general, and forestry, in particular. Population size, growth rates, densities, urbanization, migration and changing age structures impact forests and forestry, both directly and indirectly. However, in general, it is not so much the number of human beings that has the crucial impact on forests, as the way in which human society is organized (Westoby 1989). Population growth With a population of 3.6 billion people, the Asia-Pacific region accounted for about 55 percent of the world’s population in 2005. By 2020, the population in the region will increase by 600 million, resulting in a total population of 4.2 billion (Figure 4.1). This will account for about 60 percent of the global population increase, escalating demands for food, fuel, water and fibre – placing tremendous pressure on resources, including land and forests, within and outside the region. 98 • ASIA-PACIFIC FORESTS AND FORESTRY TO 2020 Figure 4.1. Population growth in Asia and the Pacific* (millions), 1980-2020 Source: UN (2009). * Medium variant. Within the Asia-Pacific region, South Asia will become the most populous subregion, overtaking East Asia. Primarily, this is an outcome of negative growth in population in Japan and very low growth rates in China (largely due to the rigid population policies), Mongolia and Republic of Korea (ROK); conversely high population growth rates continue to be the norm in most South Asian countries. The Asia-Pacific regional population grew at an annual rate of 1.2 percent between 2000 and 2005, and has continued (and will continue) to grow – though at a declining rate – in the next decade: a) at 1.06 percent between 2005 and 2010; b) at 0.97 percent between 2010 and 2015; and c) at 0.86 percent between 2015 and 2020. However, growth rates differ among subregions and among countries within each subregion. In several countries, population growth rates are above 2 percent and will continue to remain high in the coming years. At the other end of the spectrum are countries with growth rates of less than 0.5 percent or, as is the case of Japan, negative growth. Population growth has important implications for the forest sector. In addition to affecting the demand for forest products and services, population growth affects demands for other goods and services and thus has multiple and derived impacts on forests, for example, through demands for packaging or through increasing newspaper circulations. Population density provides an indication of the pressure on land and other natural resources including forests. The Asia-Pacific region is the world’s most densely populated region and projections suggest continued increases in population densities, which will likely increase pressures on land and other resources (Table 4.1). Population growth is generally fastest in developing countries in the region, many of which are already very densely populated. While the overall density of population provides a general picture, density per unit of arable land and forest provides a better indication of potential pressures on natural resources. DRIVERS IMPACTING THE FOREST SECTOR • 99 Table 4.1. Population density in the Asia-Pacific region (number/km2) Regions 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 East Asia 101 117 128 133 136 143 South Asia 218 274 334 363 392 446 Southeast Asia 82 101 119 128 136 151 Oceania 3 3 4 4 4 5 Asia and the Pacific total 86 103 120 127 134 147 World 34 41 47 50 53 59 Sources: Based on FAO (2009a) and UN (2009). Among the various subregions, South Asia has the highest population density, close to three-times that of the regional average and more than seven-fold the global average. South Asia’s population density will continue to increase, in view of the rapid growth of population in the subregion. Within South Asia, population density varies; Bhutan has the lowest density, 14 persons/km2, while Bangladesh is the most densely populated with 1 180 persons/km2. The density of population in relation to forest area has increased significantly in South Asia during the past 20 years Figure( 4.2). Comparatively, the ratio of people to forest area in East Asia has declined – largely on account of increases in planted forest area and very low population growth rates. In contrast population density in relation to forest area has increased in all other subregions, with the highest absolute increase in South Asia. Figure 4.2. Population per unit forest area in the Asia-Pacific Source: Based on FAO (2010) and UN (2009). Population densities in Southeast Asia are variable, with many countries having significant areas of very dense population, offset by large areas with very low population density. For example, the island of Java in Indonesia has a population density in excess of 800 people/km2, whereas other parts of Indonesia such as Kalimantan (17 people/km2) and Irian Jaya (4 people/km2) have relatively low populations. Viet Nam (252 people/km2) is the most densely populated country in Southeast Asia, while Lao PDR (25 people/km2) has the lowest population density. Population density in the Oceania subregion is very low, largely on account of Australia’s very large geographic area and a very low population density of three people/km2. Similarly, both New 100 • ASIA-PACIFIC FORESTS AND FORESTRY TO 2020 Zealand and PNG have relatively large areas and low population densities. However, population pressures on resources are significant in some of the small Pacific Island Countries, such as the Marshall Islands (330 people/km2) and South Tarawa (2 330 people/km2) in Kiribati. Population density is a critical factor when land and other natural resources are the most important source of income. Where dependence on agriculture for employment and incomes is high, forest conservation faces enormous challenges. Conversely, in countries where dependence on land has declined significantly (for example Japan), high levels of forest cover have been maintained notwithstanding high population densities. However, often more developed countries have transferred potential land-use pressures to less developed countries through trade. Changing age structures Change in population age structures is an important demographic factor that indirectly affects land use and forestry. Two contrasting trends that could potentially bring about important changes in demands for forest-derived goods and services are observed in the region: • Increasing proportions of elderly people in the populations of developed countries including Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Japan, New Zealand, Republic of Korea and Singapore (Box 4.1). In many of these countries, more than 15 percent of the population is over 65 years old; in Japan more than one-quarter of the population exceeds 60 years of age. Ageing will also be a major issue in China, where birth rates continue to decline in response to the rigid population policies. • In contrast, most other countries, especially in South Asia, will have a high proportion of working age people by 2020, especially as large numbers of people presently in younger age groups move into the working age group (see Table 4.2). Table 4.2. Age structures in Asia and the Pacific (percentage of total population) Population aged 0-14 Population aged 15-59 Population aged 60+ 1980 2000 2020 1980 2000 2020 1980 2000 2020 East Asia 34 25 18 58 64 64 8 11 18 South Asia 40 36 27 54 58 63 6 6 9 Southeast Asia 41 32 24 53 61 64 6 7 12 Oceania 30 26 23 59 61 59 12 13 18 Asia and the Pacific 37 30 23 56 61 64 7 9 13 Source: Basnyat (2008, updated: UN 2009). DRIVERS IMPACTING THE FOREST SECTOR • 101 Box 4.1 Population ageing in Japan Population ageing in Japan will have significant impacts on the work force as well as implications for the nature of demand for services and products, including for forests, wood and wood products. Japan’s demographic transition is characterized by a declining population and significant change in the population age structure (see figure below). The total population is already in decline, largely due to very low birth rates. At present, the proportion of people aged above 65 is increasing, while the proportion of those of working age is declining rapidly. In forestry, labour scarcity has become a significant challenge, with fewer young people willing and available to undertake forestry careers – especially low-skilled labouring employment. A number of economists and demographers have outlined the implications of such demographic changes (including for example a significant slowing down of the economy, reductions in savings, and changes in patterns of consumption, etc.); the linkages between different variables and potential impacts on forests are complex, with income and substitution effects relating to people’s preferences playing important roles in determining outcomes.
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