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Rainfall Analysis and Drought Classification 49 Public Disclosure Authorized ECONOMICTECHNICAL ANDASSISTANCE SECTOR WORK AGRICULTURAL SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENT IN NIGER: Public Disclosure Authorized Moving from Crisis Response to Long-Term Risk Management JANUARY 2013 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized REPORT NUMBER: 74322-NE TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENT IN NIGER: Moving from Crisis Response to Long-Term Risk Management Agriculture and Environmental Services (AES) Department and Agriculture, Rural Development, and Irrigation (AFTAI) Unit in the Africa Region Report No. 74322-NE © 2013 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/International Development Association The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The fi ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily refl ect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Offi ce of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. Cover photos: Vikas Choudhary and El Hadj Adama Toure CONTENTS III Table of CONTENTS List of Figures . vii List of Tables . ix Acknowledgments . xi Acronyms and Abbreviations . xiii Executive Summary . xv Chapter 1: Niger: Introduction and Context . 1 1.1 Context: Living with Risk . 1 1.2 Traditional Capacity to Manage Risk . 2 1.3 Agricultural Sector Risk Review . 3 Chapter 2: Agricultural System in Niger . 5 2.1 Agro-Climatic Conditions . 5 2.2 Land and Water Resources . 6 2.3 Crop Production System . 6 2.4 Production Trends . 10 2.5 Cereal Crops: Food Supply and Demand . 11 2.6 Cash Crops . 12 2.7 Livestock . 12 2.7.1 Transhumant-Nomadic Patoral Zone . 13 2.7.2 Agro-Pastoral Zone . 13 2.7.3 Livestock in the Agricultural Zone . 14 Chapter 3: Agriculture Sector Risks . 15 3.1 Rainfall Trends 1980–2009 . 15 3.2 Production Risks . 16 3.2.1 Drought . 16 3.2.2 Locusts . 17 3.2.3 Livestock Diseases . 17 3.2.4 Floods . 18 3.2.5 Crop Pests and Diseases . 19 3.2.6 Bushfi res and Windstorms . 19 3.3 Market Risks . 20 3.3.1 Trends in Average Annual Cereal and Cowpea Prices . 20 3.3.2 Livestock-Cereal Price Ratios . 21 3.3.3 Seasonal Price Movements . 21 3.3.4 Exchange Rate Risk . 23 TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE IV CONTENTS 3.4 Confl icts . 24 3.5 Insecurity. 24 3.6 Macroeconomic Shocks in Nigeria . 24 3.7 Political Instability and Regulatory Risks . 25 3.8 Interlinkages between Risks . 25 3.8.1 Independent Risks Occurring Simultaneously . 25 3.8.2 Dependent Risks . 25 3.8.3 Regional Shocks . 25 3.8.4 Management of One Risk Creating Another Risk . 25 3.8.5 Differential Impact of Risk . 25 Chapter 4: Adverse Impact of Agricultural Risks . 27 4.1 Conceptual and Methodological Basis for Analysis . 27 4.1.1 Loss Thresholds . 27 4.1.2 The Indicative Value of Losses . 27 4.1.3 Data . 28 4.2 Crop Production Risks . 28 4.2.1 Major Cereal Crops . 29 4.3 Crop Price Risk . 29 4.4 Locust Attacks . 30 4.5 Floods . 31 4.6 Expected Losses and Risk Priorities for Crop Production . 31 4.7 Losses to the Livestock Sector Due to Major Droughts . 33 4.8 Impact of Agricultural Risks on National GDP . 34 Chapter 5: Risk Prioritization and Management . 35 5.1 Risk Prioritization . 35 5.2 Agricultural Risk Management Measures . 37 5.2.1 Drought Tolerant and Improved Seed Varieties . 37 5.2.2 Soil and Water Conservation and Natural Resource Management . 39 5.2.3 Desert Locust Control . 39 5.2.4 Irrigation . 39 5.2.5 Shortening Emergency Response Time . 40 5.2.6 Contingent Financing . 40 5.2.7 Strategic Destocking . 40 5.2.8 Vaccination and Veterinary Services . 40 5.2.9 Community Level Food and Fodder Banks . 41 5.3 Prioritization of Risk Management Measures . 41 5.4 Conclusion . ..
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