Israel and the Middle East News Update

Monday, December 17

Headlines: ● Lebanese Army on High Alert After Altercation With IDF ● Ministers Approve Bill to Legalize 66 West Bank Outposts ● Ministers Back Bill to Expel Terrorists’ Families ● Shin Bet: Expelling Families Will Inflame West Bank ● Israeli Reaction Mixed as Australia Recognizes W. Jerusalem ● Bennett, Other Ministers Join Protest Against Government ● Report: Israel Breaks International Law in Hebron ● Yair Netanyahu Banned on Facebook for Racist Post

Commentary: ● Ha’aretz: “PA Weakness, Looming Elections May Hurt War on Terror” − By Amos Harel, Senior Columnist ● Times of Israel: “History Shows Home Demolitions Won’t Stop Attacks” − By Avi Issacharoff, Senior Analyst

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● Aaron Zucker, Associate Editor

News Excerpts December 17, 2018

Ha’aretz Lebanese Army on High Alert After Altercation With IDF The Lebanese military declared a state of high alert on Monday where Lebanese soldiers prevented Israeli soldiers from unrolling a barbed wire fence in south Lebanon. An argument reportedly ensued between the soldiers from the two countries near the village of Meiss Ej Jabal before the UN peacekeeping forces intervened. The Lebanese objected to the Israelis' placing the fence on the border without the presence of the Lebanese military.

Ha’aretz Ministers Approve Bill to Legalize 66 West Bank Outposts Israel’s Ministerial Committee for Legislation approved the advancement of a bill that would authorize more than 60 outposts and settlement neighborhoods built in the West Bank over the last 20 years. According to the legislation, the state would have to decide on how to legalize these outposts within two years. Until then, demolitions would be suspended, without the cabinet’s approval. The bill requires the state to provide municipal services, including hooking the outposts up to water and electricity and providing maintenance and garbage removal.

Times of Israel Ministers Back Bill to Expel Terrorists’ Families Ministers voted late Sunday to advance legislation that would allow Israel to forcibly relocate the families of Palestinian terrorists from their homes to other areas of the West Bank. The decision came after a “lengthy and complicated” debate over the bill in the Security Cabinet and “despite the opposition of the judicial authorities,” the Jewish Home party said in a statement. According to the legislation, within a week of an attack or attempted attack, the IDF’s Central Command will be permitted to expel the relatives of the assailants to other parts of the West Bank.

Ha’aretz Shin Bet: Expelling Families Will Inflame West Bank Shin Bet director Nadav Argaman said his agency opposes the expulsion bill, adding it “cannot be implemented," because "we are unable to go into Hebron and Nablus every day and see who lives where and whether the family has returned to their residence." Argaman warned that the bill would "bring about a result that is the opposite of deterrence since its implementation would create tensions.” He apparently led the charge against the bill, supported by the military Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot.

Reuters Israeli Reaction Mixed as Australia Recognizes W. Jerusalem The Israeli government signalled displeasure on Sunday with Australia’s recognition of West Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. On Saturday, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said Canberra formally recognises West Jerusalem as Israel’s capital but reaffirmed his country’s support for a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem under a two-state peace deal. Israel’s Foreign Ministry responded tepidly, calling the Australian move “a step in the right direction”. At the cabinet meeting on Sunday, Netanyahu declined to elaborate. Minister Tzachi Hanegbi said, “To our regret, within this positive news they made a mistake… Israel’s control over [Jerusalem] is eternal. Our sovereignty will not be partitioned nor undermined.”

Times of Israel Bennett, Other Ministers Join Protest Against Government Nine government ministers, including Jewish Home leader Naftali Bennett and four members of the ruling Likud party, joined a protest rally against the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday, accusing him of being weak on combating a spate of West Bank terror attacks. Bennett addressed the rally, accusing Netanyahu of failing to protect Israelis against terror attacks and claiming the “security establishment… has chosen the rights of Palestinians over the security of Israelis.”

Ha’aretz Report: Israel Breaks International Law in Hebron An international observatory task force established two decades ago to monitor the divided West Bank city of Hebron has produced its most exhaustive and damning internal report on Israel’s actions in the city. The confidential report by the Temporary International Presence in Hebron (TIPH) warns that the city is more divided than ever due to the actions of the Israeli government and Israeli settlers. According to the report, Israel is clearly in “severe and regular breach” of the right to non-discrimination as well as the obligation to protect the population living under occupation from deportation. It said “radical Israeli settlers” make life difficult for Palestinian residents.

Jerusalem Post Yair Netanyahu Banned on Facebook for Racist Post Facebook has blocked Netanyahu’s son, Yair, for 24 hours and removed his post calling to avenge the death of the two IDF soldiers killed in the terror attack in Givat Assaf. Yair Netanyahu complained that the "Thought Police" has reached him and claimed that Facebook is trying to silence him in a place that should allow everyone to voice their opinions. Yair posted earlier on Facebook, “There will not be peace here until: 1. All the Jews leave the land of Israel. 2. All the Muslims leave the land of Israel. I hope it’s the second.”

Ha’aretz – December 16, 2018 PA Weakness and Looming Elections May Hurt War on Terror By Amos Harel, Senior Columnist

● After two grave terror attacks near Ramallah over the past week, Israeli radio and television stations broadcast a series of interviews with Knesset members, right-wing activists and settlement chiefs. Immediately after expressing sorrow and grief over those killed, the numerous interviewees voiced a uniform message: The Israel Defense Forces’ deterrence has been lost, along with the sense of security of West Bank settlers. The list of demands they presented was almost identical: limit Palestinians’ movement, demolish terrorists’ homes, impose sanctions on the Palestinian Authority and, of course, issue the appropriate Zionist response in the form of unfreezing settlement expansion and giving retroactive legal authorization for homes in Jewish settlements and outposts.

● Only a combination of deterrence and punishment, so they claimed, would bring back a sense of security to those traveling on West Bank roads. This list of demands, and the latter one in particular, is as old as the settlement enterprise itself. The government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is aware of the pressure exerted by settlers. Indeed, several of his latest statements – which may or may not be acted upon – coincide with a large part of their demands. In reality, however, it’s difficult to identify any link between speeding up construction in the settlements and bolstering deterrence or sense of security. The anger over the recent deaths is being channeled into a demand to hurt Palestinians by means of more houses in the settlements, but it has never been proven that settlement expansion has worn down the willingness of Palestinians residents of the West Bank to fight Israel; just the opposite may be true.

● Furthermore, demands for collective punishment aren’t supported by senior security officials. In the fall of 2015, as a wave of stabbing and car-ramming attacks led to the death of dozens of Israelis in the West Bank and Jerusalem, the IDF and Shin Bet presented a united stance, the opposite of the one promoted by settlement leaders. IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, followed by Shin Bet chief Nadav Argaman, who assumed his position in May 2016, both recommended concentrating on foiling the efforts of potential terrorists, continuing to distinguish between terror and the general population and avoiding collective punishment as much as possible. The occurrence of lone-wolf attacks eventually dwindled and Israel wasn’t required to use the same aggressive means it has used in the past to suppress the second intifada in the first half of the previous decade. Heads of security agencies are also opposed to freezing security coordination with the PA. On the contrary, they still view it as an asset that strengthens the latter’s stability but also helps Israel in its fight against terrorism. Maj. Gen. Tamir Heyman, director of Military Intelligence, reiterated this stance during a Knesset discussion last week, amid the recent escalation.

● The IDF, undoubtedly egged on by higher-ups, demolished the family home of Islam Abu Humaid, who is charged with killing Israeli special forces sergeant Ronen Lubarsky after throwing a marble slab from a rooftop during a raid in El Amari refugee camp in Ramallah in May. Two of Abu Humaid’s older brothers have been involved in deadly attacks and the house was demolished once by Israel in the 1990s. In his case, it seems like deterrence didn’t work. Additionally, a committee appointed by then- Chief of Staff Moshe Ya’alon in 2005 concluded that no proof exists of a link between house demolition and deterrence.

● Nevertheless, this policy was revived four years ago due to political pressure. Right-wing speakers, who now demand to expand and accelerate house demolitions, present its benefits as clear, but don’t rely on any actual proof. It seems the main goal of these demolitions is satisfying the Israeli public’s desire for revenge. Circumstances have changed since the 2015 wave of terrorism, and not for the better. The political system is already in a pre-election atmosphere and for the first time, Netanyahu has no defense minister on which he can deflect some of the charges about deteriorating security. Hamas, apparently still hoping to achieve a long-term cease-fire with Israel in the Gaza Strip, on its own terms, keeps on trying to set the West Bank on fire.

● The most important part of the equation, perhaps, is the PA’s relative weakness. The Trump administration’s clear backing of Netanyahu, with nothing remaining of the U.S. president’s pretense to serve as a fair mediator in the political process, destabilizes Palestinian President Mahmnoud Abbas’ standing in the West Bank. Abbas has long lost trust in the prospect of peace with Israel during his rule. More attacks, followed by harsher reactions from Israel, might also erode security coordination between Israel and the PA. All these recent developments, however, don’t mature into a new intifada. It’s clear that individual terror attacks that succeed, along with the momentary glorification of so-called shahids, bring in their wake attempts to emulate such attacks. But most of the recent incidents, which occurred in Ramallah, are linked to one or two Hamas cells.

● Neither Fatah nor other PA security bodies are currently involved in the attacks. This is not a broad popular phenomenon. Stone-throwing along West Bank roads is on the rise, but incidents are not as violent or widespread as they were in turbulent times in the past, and no massive demonstrations are in sight. Even the PA itself understands the risk posed to its stability by Hamas’ strengthening, as was made clear in the violent suppression of demonstrations held on Thursday in the West Bank to mark the anniversary of the establishment of Hamas. It seems, in fact, that a potential government decision to pursue collective punishment, as right-wing politicians demand, would exacerbate the situation and push more Palestinians to violent confrontation with Israel.

● Twice in four days, deadly shootings on roads near Ramallah showed that the soldiers’ response was insufficient. This may indicate an intelligence gap, since at least some of the shooters were supposed to be known to security agencies. But it may also point to the level of the forces’ preparedness. The Nahal Haredi soldiers who were shot at weren’t waiting to hitch a

ride home, but were on duty. And still, a lone Palestinian gunman managed to fire at them and flee with impunity, taking one of the soldiers’ guns. These recent incidents exposed gaps in operational discipline, not for the first time of late, and demand a thorough self-examination by the IDF and Shin Bet.

Times of Israel – December 15, 2018 History Shows Home Demolitions Won’t Stop Attacks By Avi Issacharoff, Senior Analyst

● The Abu Hamid family, whose home was demolished by the Israeli military early Saturday, has a long history of involvement in attacks on Israeli security forces. In 1991, the Israel Defense Forces destroyed the family’s home in the al-Amari refugee camp near Ramallah over the involvement of one of the brothers — Nasser, a Fatah member — in terrorism. That house was later rebuilt… before being demolished again Saturday. In 1994 another brother, Abdul Munim Abu Hamid, along with two Hamas members, killed Shin Bet agent Noam Cohen. Abdul himself was killed a few months later.

● Nasser Abu Hamid, upon his release from prison, became a founder of Fatah’s Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades at the start of the Second Intifada and in April 2002 was arrested by the IDF during Operation Defensive Shield, not far from the family home. Other brothers would also spend time in Israeli prisons over the years, among them Islam Yousef Abu Hamid. During an operation of the elite Duvdevan unit in al-Amari in May, he is said to have thrown a marble slab from a roof at Israeli forces, killing Staff Sgt. Ronen Lubarsky — and leading to the razing of the family home early Saturday.

● The family’s history shows that home demolitions are, unfortunately, highly unlikely to deter would-be attackers. Although some seem to believe destroying assailants’ homes is a comprehensive solution to preventing terrorism, the case of the Abu Hamid family shows that not only do they not prevent attacks — they can sometimes even fuel motivation for revenge. The Abu Hamid home will be rebuilt within a few years, likely with Palestinian Authority funding, as one Fatah leader has said. Even if the Fatah money is not forthcoming, someone else — perhaps Hamas — will provide the funds. There is no magical solution for preventing attacks on Israeli citizens and soldiers, and anyone who holds up house demolitions as the ultimate means to do so is either mistaken or deliberately misleading others. It is an excellent way of soothing the families of the victims and an Israeli public out for revenge, but nothing more than that.

● At the height of the suicide bombing wave of 2003, three years after the start of the Second Intifada, a report was drawn up by the IDF on the policy of home demolitions, a practice that had received an official green light in the summer of 2002. Hundreds of terrorists’ family homes had since been destroyed. But the report determined there was no evidence that the demolitions had a deterrent effect and that furthermore, the number of attacks actually rose a few months after the implementation of the policy. In early 2005, a committee appointed by then-IDF chief of staff Moshe Ya’alon and headed by Gen. Udi Shani recommended ending the razing of homes on the grounds that they were not proven to be a deterrent, and declared that the damage outweighed any benefit.

● While this fact may be unfortunate and while the Israeli public and politicians may be thirsty for justice, attacks such as that perpetrated by Abu Hamid — and those in the West Bank this week — will continue regardless of Israeli retribution, so long as the status quo revered by the Israeli government persists. Terror attacks have occurred under left-wing and right-wing governments, and the current situation in the West Bank shows they are not going away any time soon. While Israelis in recent years have become used to a rather low number of attacks, the lava in the volcano that is the West Bank continues to bubble beneath the surface. The Shin Bet and IDF can attest to this, having prevented hundreds of attacks over the past year — sometimes with the close cooperation of the Palestinian Authority’s security services. The problem, though, is that it is never truly possible to know when a volcano will erupt, and once it does, it is incredibly difficult to put out the flames; even an excellent intelligence network like the one the Shin Bet runs in the West Bank will have a hard time stopping that eruption once it starts.

● Accompanying the growing demand for home demolitions, there are also increasing calls on the right to hold Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas responsible for the current situation. Some extreme wings have even called to to assassinate him. While Abbas is indeed responsible for paying stipends to the families of terrorists, he does so while simultaneously helping thwart attacks. His removal will not have a calming effect on the ground but rather the opposite, and an explosion after he leaves the scene appears ever more likely. In this context it is impossible to ignore Israeli actions vis-a-vis Hamas, such as allowing the indirect transfer of funds from Qatar to its military wing — the very same military wing that operates terror cells in the West Bank and murders Israelis. Amid such absurdity, it is perhaps no wonder that a change is being felt in the West Bank: Israel’s policy of not speaking with the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority but holding indirect negotiations with Hamas is seen as reinforcing a long-held Palestinian sentiment: The Jews, led by the Netanyahu government, only understand the language of force.