The Blob, El Niño, and the Drought in

Christopher Krembs, Marine Monitoring Unit, EAP, Ecology

The Drought

The Blob

El Niño Warmest first four months since 1981, (Source: NASA's Goddard Institute for Space) The snow has melted early or came down as rain

April 2010 March 2015

Photo by Bill Baccus, Feb 2013 June 2015

Hurricane Ridge: winter snow is gone. Low snow has only occurred twice since 1960 (1977 & 2005). Many rivers and streams are much below normal

By June 1, 2015, most rivers and streams are at or below 10th percentile

• Most rivers and streams are at or below 10th percentile in greater Puget Sound Basin

• Several western regions are experiencing record low flows

The Fraser River has been running very high. The “freshet” is much earlier in 2015

Fraser River is the largest freshwater source of Salish Sea affecting estuarine circulation

Higher than normal Lower than normal Expected

The Blob + El Niño

invades Pacific, flummoxing climate experts 2013-2015

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly, 29 January 2014

Sea Surface Anomalies Persistent mass of warm water affects: •ocean currents, •marine ecosystems •inland weather

One week mean sea surface temperature anomaly 8-14 March 2015. The “Blob” in 2014, (NOAA) The Blob hits shores! Timing of coastal winds is important!

Upwelling index (NOAA) YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2014 -17 -72 -34 -14 2 24 34 35 -1 -62 -49 -88 2015 -49 -27 -18

Until September 2014 upwelled water keeps warm water offshore

spring-neap cycle

snowpack

Fraser Seattle Victoria Skagit Coastal Upwelling San Juan Islands

upwelled water low DO , high nutrients

tidal mixing estuarine over the sill circulation Strait of Juan de Fuca Admiralty R. Puget Sound

Upwelling Snow-fed rivers Rain-fed rivers

Downwelling Estuarine circulation Tidal exchange After September 2014 downwelling starts and brings in warm water

spring-neap cycle

snowpack

Fraser Seattle Victoria Skagit Downwelling San Juan Islands downwelled warmer, lower nutrients, lower salinity, LOWER DO tidal mixing estuarine over the sill circulation Strait of Juan de Fuca Admiralty R. Puget Sound

Upwelling Snow-fed rivers Rain-fed rivers

Downwelling Estuarine circulation Tidal exchange Ecology’s Marine Monitoring Stations Sampled by a “great team” to full depth every month

Carol Maloy Christopher Krembs Julianne Ruffner Laura Friedenberg Suzan Pool Julia Bos Mya Keyzers Brooke McIntyre Skip Albertson Eyes Over Puget Sound Marine Long-Term Monitoring Program

Conditions were dominated by warm water associated with the NE Pacific Ocean warm surface anomaly. Starting in October, temperatures are the highest on our record since 1989. Oxygen and salinities are becoming lower. Higher Temperature! Lower Salinity Lower Oxygen Apr. 2015:

Red boxes show that the water measured is warmer than any of our measurements since 1989. Warm low DO water enters Puget Sound

Temperature and Salinity define Density (Density-1000=Sigma)

Central Sound Stations 1999-2013 Central Sound last 12 months… Warm low DO water enters Puget Sound

Temperature and Salinity define Density (Density-1000=Sigma)

Central Sound Stations 1999-2013 Central Sound last 12 months… Ferry monitoring observations 6-8-2015 Surface water (3m) in places already >15°C

In spatial context: In temporal context:

Pockets of sea surface temperatures are now reaching >15°C near Kingston. Temperature are favorable for harmful algae species to bloom.

The Victoria Clipper IV carries sensors in its sea chest. The sensors allow us to get surface transects of temperature, chlorophyll, salinity, and other bio-optical measurements between Seattle and Victoria, BC twice per day.

What will the summer of 2015 bring? The “Blob” is still offshore! (NOAA)

2014 May 2015

June 2015 Blob is ~500 km offshore Will upwelled water in 2015 stay offshore?

spring-neap cycle

reduced snowpack

Fraser Seattle Victoria Rivers Coastal Upwelling San Juan Islands

tidal mixing estuarine over the sill circulation

Upwelling Snow-fed rivers Rain-fed rivers

Downwelling Estuarine circulation Tidal exchange Will an El Niño deepen the nutrient rich water?

spring-neap cycle

reduced snowpack

Fraser Seattle Victoria Rivers Coastal Upwelling San Juan Islands

tidal mixing estuarine over the sill circulation dense water too deep

Upwelling Snow-fed rivers Rain-fed rivers

Downwelling Estuarine circulation Tidal exchange Will summer squalls import more warm water?

spring-neap cycle

reduced snowpack

Fraser Seattle Victoria Rivers Downwelling San Juan Islands

tidal mixing estuarine over the sill circulation

Upwelling Snow-fed rivers Rain-fed rivers

Downwelling Estuarine circulation Tidal exchange Speculating about the summer 2015

• No matter in what direction the coastal wind will blow, we can expect a reduced renewal of water in Puget Sound.

• Puget Sound water will stay warm leading to potentially more regional water quality issues.

• Expect very different growth conditions for marine species.

The marine food web is responding (the news is coming in…)

• Energy-rich northern zooplankton species were replaced by southern copepods at end of 2014. Peter Chandler (Canada), San Diego meeting “The Blob”, May 2015)

• Much more gelatinous zooplankton, 'Crunchies' vs. 'Squishies‘, (John Dower, UVIC, CBC NES 6/8 here).

• A record high 96% diversion of returning Fraser River sockey salmon via northern Vancouver Island (LaPointe et al. 2015 report, in prep).

• Largest toxic algae bloom stretching from Central California to British Columbia. NOAA (Seattle Times 6/16 here).

• First time PSP, DSP and domoic acid in Washington at the same time. DOH (Seattle Times 6/16 here).

Leveraging our flight time

• Empty transit flights Seattle - Olympia with camera on board

• Document blooms, debris, animal aggregations, oil sheens, water boundaries

• Unique perspective, minimal extra cost

Eyes Over Puget Sound (EOPS), 6-8-2015

Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams A. 3:11 PM B. 2:22 PM (6-4-2015)

jellyfish

jellyfish jellyfish boat

jellyfish jellyfish jellyfish

jellyfish

Bloom jellyfish

jellyfish

Large patches of jellyfish forming in finger inlets of South Sound. Location: A. Eld Inlet; B. Budd Inlet on 6-4-2015 (South Sound). Eyes Over Puget Sound (EOPS), 6-8-2015

Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams A. B.

Debris

Debris Debris

Large ribbons and patches of organic debris in many places of South Sound. Location: A. North of McNeil Island, B. (South Sound), 3:16 PM. Eyes Over Puget Sound (EOPS), 6-8-2015

Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams

Plume

boat

Internal waves

Bloom

Sediment plume of Puyallup River with internal waves meandering into Bay and mixing with a bloom. Location: Commencement Bay (Central Sound), 3:28 PM. Eyes Over Puget Sound (EOPS), 6-8-2015

Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams

boat ship

Bloom Debris

Large Noctiluca bloom surfacing and gathering in large quantities at tidal front. Location: Commencement Bay (Central Sound), 3:32 PM. Eyes Over Puget Sound (EOPS), 6-8-2015

Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams

Debris Bloom

Large Noctiluca bloom held back front off Maury Island Marine Park and Saltwater State Park. Location: East of Vashon Island (Central Sound), 3:32 PM. Eyes Over Puget Sound (EOPS), 6-8-2015

Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams

boat

Debris

Large Noctiluca bloom has surfaced near northeast Bainbridge Island across Discovery Park, Seattle. Location: Bainbridge Island (Central Sound), 3:45 PM. Eyes Over Puget Sound (EOPS), 6-8-2015

Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams

barge

boat Debris Debris

Debris

Noctiluca bloom starting to surface and getting washed onto beaches. Location: Port Madison (Central Sound), 3:47 PM. Will the situation become bigger with El Niño? What will the future look like?