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SPECIAL REPORT The debate on Catalan independence: from Constitutional Pact to unilateral path

Madrid, October 2017

Barcelona • Bogota • Buenos Aires • Havana • Lima • Lisbon • Madrid • Mexico City • Miami • New York City • Panama City • Quito • Rio de Janeiro • Sao Paulo Santiago • Santo Domingo • Washington, DC THE DEBATE ON CATALAN INDEPENDENCE: FROM CONSTITUTIONAL PACT TO UNILATERAL PATH

1. INTRODUCTION

Carles Puigdemont, the president of the Regional Government 1. INTRODUCTION of , announced on Wednesday 10 in the Catalan 2. BACKGROUND Parliament that he assumed the mandate offered by the 3. FROM FISCAL PACT TO THE referendum held on October 1 (declared unconstitutional by the RIGHT TO DECIDE Constitutional Court) in order to declare Catalonia’s one-sided 4. BUILDING MOMENTUM: A REFERENDUM BEFORE 2015 independence. However, he then proposed the suspension of the independence effects temporarily, in order to dialogue with the 5. THE DECISIVE BID FOR INDEPENDENCE government. 6. THE UNILATERAL PATH Most analysts have called the situation completely 7. RESPONSE FROM THE BUSINESS WORLD AND SPANISH CIVIL unprecedented; with some saying it could be a strategy to SOCIETY buy time in the face of the complete international rejection 8. WHAT NOW? of Catalan independence, which makes it unviable at present. 9. WHO’S WHO IN CATALAN Reactions have ranged from dissatisfaction among wide-ranging POLITICS separatist groups, who unambiguously labeled this suspension AUTHORS a “betrayal,” to concern from the Spanish Government regarding the situation of uncertainty and instability in Catalonia.

This report analyzes the development of this crisis, which began with the 2012 regional victory of Convergència i Unió (Convergence and Union - CiU). After winning, it announced— for the first time—its commitment to setting up a new Catalan State, breaking the long tradition of Catalan nationalists that had governed Catalonia for 25 years. They were a key partner in all the Spanish governments and part of the 1978 Constitutional Pact and 2005 Pact for the Statute of Autonomy.

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2. BACKGROUND One of the main goals of his government was to reform In 2003, after decades of the Statute of Autonomy of nationalist leadership in Catalonia—a proposal that Catalonia, progressive had not been raised by the CiU parties came to power in nationalist governments until “The process of the Catalan government then. reforming the (known as the Generalitat in Catalan) for the first time, The process of reforming Statute did not have creating what was called the Statute did not have the the support from the the first “Govern d’Entesa,” support from the Partido Partido Popular. This or Tripartite government. Popular. This is a key This pact between the Partit element for understanding is a key element for dels Socialistes de Catalunya future events. The Tripartite understanding (Catalan Socialist Party - Government had included future events.” PSC), Esquerra Repubicana in its legislative pact the de Catalunya (Republican exclusion of the People’s Party Left of Catalonia - ERC) and (PP) from any agreement Iniciativa per Catalunya Verds for governance in Catalonia (Green Catalan initiative - or as a whole. The ICV) allowed Socialist Pasqual national leadership of the PP Maragall to take over as interpreted this initiative as president of the Regional a “line of containment” and Government of Catalonia. urged its members of the Catalan Parliament not to participate in the process of the reform of the Statute.

Despite this, the CiU, PSC, ICV and ERC all pushed the reform process forward, ending with the drafting of a new Statute of Autonomy, which was approved in the Regional in 2005 with the support of all political parties—except the PP.

Following its approval in the Regional Parliament, the Spanish Parliament’s Lower House partially modified the

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Statute’s content to adapt it Government. to the current constitutional framework through a pact The new government between the Partido Socialista spent its time focused on Obrero Español (Spanish public policies, although Socialist Workers’ Party – the debate on regional PSOE) and CiU. Excluded from identity continued to play the process in both Catalonia a leading role in Spanish and Madrid, the PP began a public life, in anticipation of “There was a mass campaign to collect signatures the Constitutional Court’s demonstration in across Spain, requesting the ruling. Meanwhile, a fierce under the Statute be endorsed by the debate arose regarding the Spanish population. government’s composition, slogan “Som una nació. with objections from judges Nosaltres decidim” Finally, in 2006, in accordance and an inability to reach (We are a nation: with the provisions of the agreements on its renewal. We decide), led by Constitution, the Catalan Statute was submitted to a Against this backdrop, the president Montilla.” referendum in Catalonia. At Constitutional Court issued this point, both the PP and its ruling in 2010, voiding ERC (which had withdrawn 14 articles of the Catalan its support from the Statute Statute of Autonomy. Days due to the changes introduced later, there was a mass in the Spanish Lower House), demonstration in Barcelona asked for a vote against. In under the slogan “Som una the end, the Statute won with nació. Nosaltres decidim (We 73.24 percent in favor and a are a Nation: We Decide),” led turnout of over 2.5 million by president Montilla. The Catalans. judgment and subsequent demonstration characterize Following its approval in the what the debate on Catalan referendum, the PP filed an and Spanish politics would appeal in the Constitutional be in coming years. The Court, beginning a procedure ruling was interpreted by the that would later become this political parties and Catalan legal body’s first judgment citizens as an insult, not only on a law of constitutional due to the scope of articles scope, as it was approved by voided, but also because the a regional parliament, by the Constitutional Court had Lower House and submitted to amended a law approved by a referendum. The Tripartite the vast majority of Catalan Government dissolved the citizens. regional parliament and called for early regional elections, November that same year, CiU after which the pact between won the elections and a new the progressive parties was resumed, with the Socialist Jose Montilla as the new president of the Catalan

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political phase began, headed change its political agenda, by a new president, . pointing to the Spanish State as responsible for the social 3. FROM FISCAL PACT TO cuts and lack of funding. It THE RIGHT TO DECIDE then introduced a demand for a “fiscal pact” into the debate, Artur Mas came to office leveraging it to use the social as head of the Regional unrest in favor of the Catalan Government of Catalonia in government. 2010, during the economic and “The Catalan financial crisis. That is why, This strategy of defending government called despite the ongoing regional a new pact for Catalonia led itself “business debate, the initial years of to CiU becoming the favorite his government were marked political party in November friendly”, agreed on by crisis management rather 2011 in a Catalan general its budget with the than independence talks. The election for the first time. In PP and championed Catalan government called these elections, the People’s itself “business friendly,” Party won an absolute majority the first budget- agreed on its budget with the and took over the government cutting measures.” PP and championed the first of Spain. The new Prime budget-cutting measures. Minister, , also Months later, in 2011, the faced some difficult months in Catalan government had to managing the economic crisis. deal with the events of March 15, the start of the 15M social In 2012, during the debate movement that occupied on the Spanish financial squares in Spain under the system’s bailout, the Regional banner of “they don’t represent Government of Catalonia us” in May 2011. and Catalan Parliament agreed to begin talks with June 2011, when the regional the Spanish government for police force broke up the 15 a new fiscal pact. The aim million demonstrators in Plaza was to turn the traditional de Catalunya , a new protest Catalan Sept. 11 celebration was organized—one that (La Diada) into a “cry for the surrounded the Parliament fiscal pact.” However, the of Catalonia. Images of Artur organizations calling for the Mas entering Parliament by event, financed and supported helicopter were broadcast by the Catalan government, around the world. Most believed the time had come analysts believe it was pressure to demand “Catalunya, nou from the social conflict, Estat d’Europa” (Catalonia, triggered by the cuts and a new European State). economic crisis, that pushed They managed to mobilize the Catalan government to somewhere between 600,000 and 1.5 million people, making

5 THE DEBATE ON CATALAN INDEPENDENCE: FROM CONSTITUTIONAL PACT TO UNILATERAL PATH

it the biggest independence Artur Mas became the demonstration in Catalan new regional president of history. Catalonia, with ERC's support, his investiture sealed by the Against this backdrop, Artur promise of a consultation on Mas and Mariano Rajoy met Catalan independence before in the Palace of La Moncloa the end of 2014. From that “Artur Mas became Sept. 20. In response to Mas’ moment on, historical events request for a fiscal pact, the began moving quickly. the new regional Rajoy government closed president of Catalonia, ranks, pointing to the difficult Meanwhile, relations between with ERC's support, economic situation the the PSC and PSOE passed country was in. A few days through a critical phase. The his investiture sealed later, President Mas called Catalan Socialists ignored by the promise for early elections, believing the congress and, of the vote of a consultation that, given Rajoy’s refusal and in January 2013 in Congress demonstrators’ demands, the in a motion favorable to the on Catalan government’s term in office right to decide. That same independence.” was over. month, five Catalan Socialist Party members supported a 4. BUILDING MOMENTUM: Declaration of Sovereignty A REFERENDUM BEFORE in the Catalan Parliament, 2015 and some historical PSC activists left the party to join The November 2012 elections the separatist movement. did not produce CiU’s This crisis took place, at least desired results; its bid was partially, from summer 2013 not successful, and it lost through the Declaration of 12 seats. But these elections Granada, in which the PSOE would change the terms of the and PSC agreed to support the political debate substantially. federal state and the Catalan The “dret a decidir” (right to Socialists relinquished their decide) was touted not only by demand for a referendum on CiU, ERC and ICV, but also by Catalan independence. the PSC, which declared itself in favor of a legal referendum April 2014, a delegation of on Catalan independence. At Catalan Parliament members the same time, these elections from separatist parties headed marked the emergence of a debate in the Lower House parliamentary representation of Parliament in which, at for the anti-capitalist the request of the Catalan Candidatura d’Unitat Popular Parliament, they requested a (CUP) party. transfer of the power to call for referendums. The Government

6 THE DEBATE ON CATALAN INDEPENDENCE: FROM CONSTITUTIONAL PACT TO UNILATERAL PATH

of Spain did not agree to office by the courts and were negotiate on this matter, subject to substantial financial arguing that it could not penalties. take any steps that provided legal grounds for a possible 5. THE DECISIVE BID FOR referendum on the separation INDEPENDENCE of part of the national “The Catalan Parliament territory. Following the Nov. 9 approved a Law on consultation, Artur Mas called Consultations and In reaction to this and for early elections on Sept. 27, following a number of 2015 with a candidate from Participation, through prior efforts, the Catalan the Junts pel Sí (JxS) coalition, which it called for Parliament approved a formed by Convergència (now a consultation on Law on Consultations and without Unió, which had Participation, through which left the CiU coalition), ERC November 9, 2014.” it called for a consultation and several smaller political on Nov. 9, 2014. There was a parties, as well as some double were two questions independents. asked during this: “Do you want Catalonia to be a State,” Both JxS and CUP considered and “If so, do you want it the Sept. 27 elections to be a to be independent?” The “plebiscite.” In other words, consultation was supported by given the impossibility of the the Catalan Government, with Spanish State institutions the collaboration of separatist agreeing to a referendum organizations, and it was and the lack of international organized using volunteers. recognition for the Nov. 9 State institutions did not consultation, the elections prevent the consultation were seen as a substitute for from being held, as they did the a referendum. Both parties, not consider it to have any with complete clarity and legal effects. According to the for the first time, called for Catalan Government, there Catalan independence in their was a turnout of 2.3 million election manifestos, including people, and 80.6 percent were offering explicit roadmaps on in favor of independence. how to achieve it. Although no measures were taken to prevent the In these elections JxS and CUP consultation from being held, won an absolute majority of its main promoters, including members (72 out of 135), but Artur Mas himself, were temporarily disqualified from

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represented only 48 percent Democràtica de Catalunya of the votes. They won the (CDC) was dissolved. Firm elections, but had not obtained support for independence in over half the votes under the the new generation of party terms of the plebiscite that leaders, as well as a need to had been proposed. As a result, separate themselves from the then-spokesperson of CUP corruption cases affecting the Antonio Baños declared the party and its founder, former plebiscite had not been won. President , were After weeks of deadlock, JxS major elements in the decision “The ongoing tension and CUP finally agreed on the to create a new political party between CUP and the investiture of then-unknown in the summer of 2016, the new government forced former Mayor of Gerona Carles Partit Europeu Demòcrata Puigdemont, a separatist from Català (PDECAT). Puigdemont to submit to his youth, as new president a vote of no-confidence, of the Generalitat (Regional 6. THE UNILATERAL PATH in wich, in exchange for Government of Catalonia). At his investiture, he committed To make the referendum CUP support for the to holding constituent possible, knowing the Generalitat’s budget, he elections for the new Catalan only body authorized to announced a referendum Republic within an 18-month call it was the Spanish period. government, Sept. 6 and 7, on Catalan independence 2017, the Catalan Parliament for 2017.” The ongoing tension between approved what were known CUP and the new government as the Referendum Law and forced Puigdemont to submit Legal Transition Law. The to a vote of no-confidence, in parliamentary debate took which, in exchange for CUP place without following the support for the Generalitat’s regulations set forth by the budget, he announced a Regional Parliament itself and referendum on Catalan did not heed the Constitutional independence for 2017. This Court’s warnings of referendum had not been unconstitutionality. It did not included in either the JxS comply with the provisions in roadmap or the investiture the Statute of Catalonia itself, agreement. The referendum such as the need to have a prior was finally scheduled for Oct. report from the Council of 1, 2017, with the question being Statutory Guarantees to pass “Do you want Catalonia to be laws. Catalonan government an independent state in the supporters had decided on form of a republic?” a clearly unilateral course. The Regional Parliament was Meanwhile, the Convergència divided in two, with separatist forces (supported by part of the Podem party) supporting a

8 THE DEBATE ON CATALAN INDEPENDENCE: FROM CONSTITUTIONAL PACT TO UNILATERAL PATH

new legality and the rest of the apologizing for days later, it parties opposing a unilateral was possible for citizens to use decision. most of the polling stations that had been organized. “The evening of the In the following weeks, state referendum itself, the institutions used various Although there was no legal mechanisms to try to legal guarantee involved, Catalan President prevent the referendum from according to the Generalitat, announced he would being held. High-ranking the consultation had a pass the result of the officials were arrested, ballot turnout of 2.2 million people, papers were seized, there was with 90.2 percent in favor of consultation on to the online police activity and independence. These figures Regional Parliament of the Generalitat’s accounts are impossible to verify due to Catalonia to activate the were strictly controlled. the lack of any independent Legal Transition Law.” Nevertheless, on Oct. 1, the electoral authority, though Catalan Regional Government they clearly demonstrate a surprised everyone by high level of social support producing the necessary for separatism; however, they logistical instruments to also make it clear that this is hold a referendum. Despite a minority opinion in Catalan the police actions, which the society, as demonstrated by Spanish government ended up the figures from the opinion research organization Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió (CEO). Figure 1. I want Catalonia to be an independent state The evening of the referendum 50 48.5 47 itself, the Catalan President 46.4 45.3 44.3 announced he would pass the 45.2 result of the consultation on 42.5 41.1 41.6 39.1 to the Regional Parliament 40 38,9 37.3 of Catalonia to activate the 36.2 38.5 34 37.6 34.7 Legal Transition Law. This law, 35 36.1 which had been suspended 29 by the Constitutional Court, 27.5 states that if there is majority support for independence, Catalan independence would 20 be proclaimed within 48 hours, 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 and a six-month constituent Source: CEO process would begin, with the subsequent approval of a Catalan Constitution.

9 THE DEBATE ON CATALAN INDEPENDENCE: FROM CONSTITUTIONAL PACT TO UNILATERAL PATH

business world’s message to the Catalan government on its opinion of a unilateral path to independence has been clear. 7. RESPONSE FROM THE BUSINESS WORLD AND At the same time, some rating SPANISH CIVIL SOCIETY agencies, such as Moody’s, have warned of a potential negative In the days following the impact on the rating in both referendum, uncertainty and Catalonia and Spain, while “In recent days, the first fear regarding the unilateral organizations such as the Bank declaration of independence of Spain and the International major demonstration (UDI) and its possible economic Monetary Fund have stated against independence consequences generated a that tension in Catalonia has was held in Barcelona, wave of companies moving endangered growth prospects with between 350,000 offices registered in Catalonia for the entire Spanish to other autonomous regions. economy. and 1 million people To make this process easier, taking part.” the Spanish government Finally, in recent days, the approved a decree to facilitate first major demonstration changing companies’ registered against independence was held offices, removing the need in Barcelona, with between for approval at a general 350,000 and 1 million people shareholders meeting. taking part. In recent years, only separatism has shown Against this backdrop, six of a significant capacity to the seven Catalan companies mobilize supporters, but this listed on the Ibex 35 index demonstration demonstrated have already notified the the plurality and diversity of National Securities Market opinions in Catalan society. Commission (CNMV) that they would be transferring 8. WHAT NOW? their registered offices. Many small- and medium-sized , the companies from a number of president of the Regional sectors have decided to do the Government of Catalonia, same. In practice, moving a announced on Wednesday registered office has minimal 10 in the Catalan Parliament impact in terms of taxes for that he assumed the mandate Catalonia, as the main taxes offered by the referendum companies pay are to the held on October 1 (declared Spanish state. However, the unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court) in order to declare Catalonia’s one-sided

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independence. However, he and force early elections to then proposed the suspension break the deadlock, as well of the independence effects as dismantle the separatist temporarily, in order to coalition which now governs “The Government of dialogue with the government. Catalonia. Spain demanded the As a result, the government of The application of this Catalan Government Spain demanded the Catalan measure would be supported to confirm whether government confirm whether by Ciudadanos and the PSOE, these declarations were a which announced the party, the statement was declaration of independence has reached an agreement with a declaration of or not. Depending on the the government to undertake independence or not.” response, it may apply a constitutional reform. Most Article 155 of the Spanish analysts believe that once Constitution, with the aim of institutional normalcy returns at least assuming the power to Catalonia, the solution will to call elections in Catalonia lie in negotiating a reform to the Constitution that renews the constitutional Figure 2. Reasons for supporting independence pact for coming decades and generations. Desire for change S Feeling of incomprehension towards Catalunya 9. WHO’S WHO IN CATALAN POLITICS

Feeling the identity Candidatura d’Unitat Design the country model Popular (CUP)

Arguments to vote YE Ensure the management Direct-democracy and 0 5 anti-capitalist political 10 15 20 25 30 organization, independent and Percent of the ones who will vote YES in support of the unilateral path. The Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió (CEO), an opinion research center that answers to the Catalan Government, has asked supporters of independence for its reasons. What is Catalunya Sí Que striking is that only 14.7 percent say they support independence due to a feeling of identity or the idea of Catalonia as an independent nation. Most separatists support independence es Pot (CSQEP) because they consider it is the best instrument to guarantee good management (26.2 percent) or because Catalonia would be better (23.4 percent). Left-wing alternative coalition

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created for the 2015 elections in 2003 by Iniciativa per by Iniciativa per Catalunya Catalunya Verds (CV), Esquerra Verds (ICV), Esquerra Unida i Unida i Alternativa (EUiA), Alternativa (EUiA), Podemos Entesa pel Progrès Municipal and Equo. (EPM) and esl Verds-Esquerra Eclogista. Ciutadans (C’s) Junts pel Sí A liberal party that supports (JxS) the unity of Spain. It was created in 2006 to combat A pro-independence coalition . party created for the 2015 elections by Convergència, Convergència i Unió Esquerra Republicana de (CiU) Catalunya and other smaller independent parties. It is A federation of two Catalan currently in power, with the nationalist parties created support of CUP. in 1978. It was made up of Convergència Democràtica Partit Demòcrata de Catalunya (CDC), liberal Europeu Català center-right nationalists, (PDeCAT) and Uniò Democràtica de Catalunya (UDC), a Christian Created summer 2016, this Democratic party. It was independent liberal party is the main political force in considered the successor of Catalonia until 2015, when Convergència Democràtica de Uniò broke from Convergencia. Catalunya (CDC). Uniò then ran at the elections by itself but did not win any Partit Popular de seats. Catalunya (PPC)

Esquerra Republicana A delegation of the People’s de Catalunya (ERC) Party in Catalonia, founded in 1989. Neo-conservative in Founded in 1931, it is a ideology, it supports Spanish separatist social-democratic unity. party. Partit dels Socialistes Iniciativa per de Catalunya (PSC) Catalunya – Esquerra Unida i Alternativa This social-democratic party (ICV-EUiA) was founded in 1978 and supports a federal solution. It An electoral coalition of leftists is federated with the PSOE in and ecologists, it was founded the rest of Spain.

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Authors Joan Navarro is Partner and Vice-President of the Public Affairs Area at LLORENTE & CUENCA. Graduate in Sociology by the UNED and the General Management Program (Programa de Dirección General, PDG) by the IESE-University of Navarra. Expert in political communication and public affairs, from 2004 to 2007 Director of the Cabinet of the Minister of Public Administration, and in 2010 recognized as one of the 100 most influential people by the magazine El País Semanal. He is founder of the forum +Democracia, entity that promotes institutional changes for the improvement of democratic functioning. He is a member of the Spanish chapter of the Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professional (SCIP) and contributor to the newspaper El País. [email protected]

Nacho Corredor is a Senior Consultant of the Public Affairs Area at ​​LLORENTE & CUENCA. He studied Political Science at Pompeu Fabra University. He is also a reputation consultant and competitive intelligence analyst. He is a political analyst in the media, such as Cuatro, la Cadena SER and El Periódico de Catalunya. He is also a postgraduate professor in the field of communication and public affairs at the Universidad Internacional Menéndez Pelayo (UIMP), the Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB) and Ramon Llull University (URL). He has founded various organizations such as deba-t.org and bridgingbcn dedicated to fostering relations between universities, politics and civil society. He is also a member of the Political Communication Association (ACOP) and the Societat d’Estudis Econòmics (SEE). [email protected]

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