Flat Season 2017 Winning Profiles www.againstthecrowd.co.uk Page 1 Key trends point to big-race winners The big-race narrative unfolds across the British flat season in a series of races designed to find the best of the best in specific divisions…. The 2000 Guineas and the 1000 Guineas – run early in May at Newmarket – are designed to find the best of the 3yo milers…. The Derby and the Oaks – run at Epsom on the first weekend in June – are designed to find the best 12-furlong colts and fillies from the classic generation. Later in the season at Doncaster, the St Leger provides an additional test of stamina and sets out to find the best of the 3yo stayers…. Races like the Eclipse, the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes and the Arc De Triomphe in France provide top-level G1 races that set the younger horses against their older counterparts – and set out to establish the best horses across the generations…. These races are difficult to read. All the most talented horses in each division – at least those which are fit – tend to show up. All the major yards are represented. Every single runner is trying. A horse can run the race of its life in one of these big races and it can still get beaten. So how do we solve these betting puzzles? It’s never ‘easy’ to solve these races – but help is at hand in the form of historical evidence. Over the years, specific types of horses tend to come out on top time and time again in the biggest races. The winners tend to share certain characteristics and credentials…. They have similar qualifications…. www.AgainstTheCrowd.co.uk Page 2 They have achieved similar things and met similar yardsticks…. Their careers have been constructed around common themes. Their respective campaigns have similar and consistent features…. They meet the same broad criterion. They tick the same boxes. They measure up similarly to a wider statistical profile…. Conversely, horses that fail to meet the criteria laid down by these long-standing trends tend to fall short. It is very fair to say that trends will not always point you directly to a winner – at least not on their own. But they will help you split a field into the horses that fit the winning trends most closely and those who match them least. And that information can help you reach betting decisions…. No horse will meet every trend in every race. But we can take a subjective view and weigh up one thing against another. We can figure out which trends we think are most important against what else we know. We might discard some trends. With others, we might forgive a horse for not meeting the criteria – for whatever reason. The point I’m making is that trends are instructive and can direct and focus the way we look at or go about finding angles on specific races. In this report, you will find comprehensive stats for all the biggest G1 races set to be run across the 2017 flat season – the races where year-on-year the trends most frequently remain consistent. I call these documents Winning Race Profiles – and they are part of the approach I take to finding value bets in the big races. www.AgainstTheCrowd.co.uk Page 3 These Winning Race Profiles are a useful tool. That’s why I compile them. That’s why I keep them up to date year on year. That’s why I use them – alongside my other methods – in my own analysis of the big races. And that’s why I’m handing them over to you. They don’t represent a magic winner-finding system. It isn’t a case ofA + B + C + D = winner. But it is good data nevertheless – much of which you won’t find elsewhere. Take a good look at the key stats for any of the individual races. Isolate those that seem strongest or most important to you. Then measure the horses set to go to post in this season’s renewal against that statistical checklist. See how they measure up as potential candidates. It’s a very instructive process – at the end of which, at the very least, you will have very clear ideas on the strengths and potential flaws in each of the horses set to run. That’s the kind of information and insight that large portions of the market are completely unaware of. Considering those are the people you are betting against when the big races get underway, it is clear the information contained in our Winning Race Profiles delivers a very real knowledge edge. What next? There is no standard right or wrong way forward. It is a case of each to his own. Some of my readers back the top scorer on the Profile. That’s fine. Other’s use the Profiles to identify short-priced horses with flaws – so that they can oppose them either by laying them on the exchanges or backing one or more of their opponents. Personally, I use my Winning Race Profiles as a value-finding tool. I am always most interested in the horses that tick a lot of the right Profile boxes but which are being over-looked by the wider market. www.AgainstTheCrowd.co.uk Page 4 I’m a contrarian punter. That’s the way I play. I’ve had good days where I’ve backed big winners at big prices. And I’ve had plenty of losing days too. I expect those losing days. Losing days are an inevitable consequence of how I play the game. For me it’s a long-term affair. In seeking out value bets I aim to back sufficient winners at sufficiently good prices to get ahead of the game over time…. How you use the information, and how you seek to apply it in the betting markets, is pretty much up to you. We look at it as our job to load the gun with bullets. Where you point it and when you fire is your business…. All I hope is that you find the information useful – and if you use it to bag a winner during the 2017 flat season, then so much the better. Let us know how you get on. Best wishes, Nick Pullen May 2017 www.AgainstTheCrowd.co.uk Page 5 The Profile of a 2000 Guineas winner…. The 2000 Guineas is a Group 1 race for 3yo colts and fillies contested over the straight mile at Newmarket. Weights are at a level 9-00. Fillies benefit from the 3lb allowance. The table below highlights the last 10 winners of the 2000 Guineas, their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of hurdle runs, days since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going into the race, staring price, market position and trainer…. Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR Hdl R Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer 2016 Galileo Gold C GB 3 110 5 209 110 85 14/1 Hugo Palmer 2015 Gleneagles C IRE 3 116 6 209 116 83 4/1 F A P O’Brien 2014 Night Of Thunder C IRE 3 109 3 21 111 87 40/1 Richard Hannon 2013 Dawn Approach C IRE 3 124 6 203 123 118 11/8 F Jim Bolger 2012 Camelot C GB 3 119 2 196 118 90 15/8 F A P O’Brien 2011 Frankel C GB 3 126 5 14 126 124 1/2 F Sir Henry Cecil 2010 Makfi C GB 3 0 1 23 110 45 33/1 M Delzangles 2009 Sea The Stars C IRE 3 112 3 216 112 87 8/1 John M Oxx 2008 Henrythenavigator C USA 3 0 4 252 115 110 11/1 A P O’Brien 2007 Cockney Rebel C IRE 3 115 3 238 111 110 25/1 G A Huffer A performance worth 124 on the Racing Post rating (RPR) scale has been good enough to win an average renewal of this race since the turn of the Century. George Washington, Frankel and Dawn Approach are amongst the short list of recent winners who excelled beyond that level in their respective victories. Yards with form – Yard followers will be looking in only one direction – towards Ballydoyle. The last 39 runners saddled by Aidan O’Brien have produced 6 winners and an additional 3 horses that placed. Jim Bolger is 1-2-6. The Hannon outfit 32- 1-7. Bloodlines of note – Kingmambo’s 2 representatives in the race over the last 17 years both won. Galileo’s 9 runners have produced two winners and 3 additional place finishes. Progeny of Dubawi have the makings of what could become an interesting record – 4 runners to date produced 2 winners and 2 places. Danehill has two winners from his last 6 runners. www.AgainstTheCrowd.co.uk Page 6 Market pointers – Twelve of the last 17 favorites got turned over – but 9 of the last 17 winners did emerge from the top 3 in the market. Just four winners were sent off at odds bigger than 11s since 2000 (Night Of Thunder was a massive outlier in 2014 at 40s). I’ve studied the last 17 renewals of the 2000 Guineas and I’ve identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered…. Key Statistical Pointers • All the last 17 winners had won at least one race • All were progeny of a sire that had won a G1 when racing • All the last 17 winners had appeared at 7f or 8f last time out • 16 were progeny of a sire with a Stamina Index figure of 8.8+ (13 were progeny of a sire with a Stamina Index figure of 9.1+) • 16 had raced at least twice • 16 had a strike-rate of 50%+ • 16 had scored a career-best of at least 110 on the RPR scale (all hitting that level at 7f or 8f) • 16 had scored career-best RPR in one of last 2 races • 15 had won at 7f or 8f (all 15 had a strike-rate of 50%+ at those trips) • 15 had been foaled before April • 14 had scored an RPR of 85+ on racing debut • 14 had raced no more than 5 times • 13 had won on racing debut • 13 had never finished outside the first 3 • 13 had already won a Group race • 13 had run in a G1 or a G2 • 13 had won a race worth at least £30k to winning connections • 13 had a Dosage Profile with a CD figure ranging from 0.10 to 0.57.