Impact of Glaciers on the Hydrology of Kashmir Rivers: A Case Study of Kolahoi Glacier.

DISSERTATION

Submitted to the University of Kashmir in Fulfillment Of the Requirement for the Award of the

Degree of Masters of Philosophy (M.Phil.)

In Geography

BY MR. AIJAZ AHMAD SHAH

Under the supervision of

Prof. Tasawoor Ah. Kanth Professor Department of Geography and Regional Development University of Kashmir, Srinagar

Department Of Geography and Regional Development Faculty of Physical and Material Sciences University of Kashmir, Srinagar- 190006 DST-FIST Sponsored &UGC- SAP Assisted Department November - 2012

i Department of Geography and Regional Development Faculty of Physical and Material Sciences University of Kashmir, Srinagar- 190006 DST-FIST Sponsored &UGC- SAP Assisted Department

CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that the work presented in this dissertation entitled “Impact of Glaciers on the Hydrology of Kashmir Rivers – A Case Study of Kolahoi Glacier” is the original research work and has been carried out by Mr. Aijaz Ahmad Shah, M. Phil Research Scholar in Department of Geography and Regional Development, University of Kashmir, Srinagar. This work has been carried out under my supervision and has not been submitted anywhere in part or full for award of any degree in this or any other University.

The candidate has fulfilled all the requirements and formalities as required under the statutes for the submission of the Pre–Doctorial (M.Phil.) dissertation.

Scholar

Mr. Aijaz Ahmad Shah M. Phil. Scholar

Supervisor Head

Prof. Tasawoor Ahmad Kanth Prof. Mohd. Sultan Bhat Professor Professor Department of Geography Department of Geography and Regional Development and Regional Development University of Kashmir, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, 190006. Srinagar, 190006.

ii DECLARATION

I do hereby declare that the present work entitled “Impact of

Glaciers on the Hydrology of Kashmir Rivers – A Case Study of

Kolahoi Glacier” submitted by me for the award of degree of Masters of Philosophy (M. Phil) is a bonafied work undertaken by me under the supervision of Prof. Tasawoor Ahmad Kanth. This work has not been submitted in part or full for any degree or diploma to this or any other

University.

Aijaz Ahmad Shah

iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I have no words to express my everlasting thanks to Allah, who always showered his blessings on me. It is his blessings that inculcated the interest in me to peep into his creation. It gives me great pleasure to express deep gratitude to my supervisor, Prof. Tasawoor Ah. Kanth for providing me a chance to work under his supervision and for his scientific assistance, kind support, valuable comments and suggestions in solving the problems while writing the present dissertation. I am gratefull to Prof. M.S. Bhat, Head, Department of Geography and Regional Development, University of Kashmir, whom I adore a lot, for his encouragement and for what he did for me as Head of the Department. I feel a great pleasure in acknowledging my sincere regards to Dr. Parveez Ahmad, Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Regional Development for his support, encouragement and help which he provides me during the course of study. I pay my sincere thanks to my teachers, Dr. Ishtiyaq Ah. Mayor, Dr. Harmeet Singh, Dr. G.M.Rather, Dr. Shamim Ah. Shah, Dr. Javeed Ah. Rather and Mr. Mohd. Shafi for providing me constant help and support. I express my sincere gratitude to Mr. Ab. Karim, Library Assistant in the Department of Geography and Regional Development, for his kind of help. I am also thankful to Mr. Ali Mohd., Mr. Ab. Majeed, Mrs. Firdoosa and Mrs. Tahira for their assistance in the office work. I am particularly obliged to Mr. Zahoor ul Hassan, P. hd. Scholar of this department for his constant guidance and help during the course of my work. I would be failing in my duty if I do not thank my friends who always stood by me in my ups and downs, especially Dr. Syed Shakeel Ah, Mr. Nissar Ahmad, Dr. Akhter Alam, Mr. Bashir Ahmad Dar, Mr. Himayou, Muneer Ahmad Mukhtar, Hakim Farooq and others. I am thankful to different Govt. Departments whom I visited during my study work like Department of Floods and Irrigation, Srinagar, Meteorological Department, Srinagar, Forest Department, Srinagar, Tourism Department, Srinagar, Pahalgam Development Authority, etc. My special thanks goes to Mr. Javeed Mir (Cartographer) Mr. Jamsheed

iv and Mr. Najeeb Ahmed (Range officers) of the forest department for their kind support. I also acknowledge Mr. Gh. Mohidin and Mr. Parveez Ahmed of Floods and irrigation department. Besides academic help a lot of non-academic help was needed to carry out this study. A great deal of such help was provided by my parents, Mr. Shah Gh. Rasool and Mrs. Shah Hamida Akhter and my brother Mr. Meiraj-ud-din Shah, my sister Shah Rohie Akhter and my close friends Shah Imran Rashid and Syed Saba Hamid Bukhari to whom I express my sincere gratitude and shall remember all my life their kind of help. They have supported, encouraged and helped me throughout my academic career. Lastly, I am thankful to Mr. Parvaiz Ahmad (Virus Digital Internet Cafe) who meticulously computerized the manuscript of this dissertation.

Aijaz Ahmad Shah

v Dedicated To My Beloved Parents (Papa Jee and Umee Jan) Who Always Kindly Supported Me and My Activities

vi CONTENTS

Chapter No. Description Page No. Certificate ii Declaration iii Acknowledgement iv List of Tables ix List of Maps x List of Plates xi List of Figures xii

1 INTRODUCTION 1-12 1.1. Introduction 1 1.2. Significance of the study 8 1.3. Objectives of the study 12

2 LITERATURE REVIEW 13-24 2.1. Literature Review 13

3 MATERIALS AND METHODS 25-32 3.1. Data Sets Used 25 3.2. Methodology 26 3.2.1. Preparation of Base Map 27 3.2.2. Delineation/Demarcation of glacier from the Toposheet 27 3.2.3. Satellite Data Selection 28 3.2.4. Layer Extraction from the SOI Toposheet and the Satellite Data 29 3.2.5. Digitization 30 3.2.6. Change Detection 30 3.2.7. Analysis of the Meteorological Data 31 3.2.8. Analysis of the Discharge Data 31 3.2.9. Field Study and Ground Truthing 31

4 STUDY AREA 33-48 4.1. Introduction 33 4.2. Location 33 4.3. Physiography 36 4.4. Geology 39 4.5. Climate 43 4.6. Vegetation 44 4.7. Drainage 45 4.8. Socio-cultural features 48

vii 5 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 49-108 5.1. Change Detection- 1963, 1992 and 2005 49 5.2. Factors Responsible for Glacier Recession 64 5.3. Glacial features as the indicators of Glacier Recession 75 5.4. Impact of Climatic Change on the Kolahoi Glacier: (1980-2007) 81 5.4.1. Temperature OC-Mean Monthly Maximum 84 5.4.2. Temperature OC -Mean Monthly Minimum 87 5.4.3. Precipitation (mm)-Mean Monthly and Total Annually 89 5.4.4. Relative Humidity (%)-Mean Monthly and Mean Annually 91 5.5. Discharge Regimes from the Kolahoi Glacier at Liddar Head – Aru (West Liddar): 1970, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1992, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2007 and 2008 93 5.6. Discharge of Liddar river at Sheshnag (East Liddar): 1992, 1995, 2002 and 2008 100 5.7. Discussion 104

6 CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS 109-115 6.1. Conclusion 109 6.2. Suggestions 112

BIBLIOGRAPHY 116-139

ANNEXURES

viii LIST OF TABLES

Table No. Title Page No. 1 Available records regarding the change detection of 54 Kolahoi Glacier 2 Glacier area (1963, 1992 and 2005) 56 3 Total change and retreat (km2/ year) 57 4 Tourist arrival to Pahalgam (1997-2008) 66 5 Tourist estimate- Pahalgam 2025 67 6 Yatries coming to Amar Nath Ji (lakh) 70 7 Population growth- Pahalgam Township 71 8 Estimate population of Pahalgam-2025 72 9 Temperature (OC)-Mean Monthly Maximum 85 10 Temperature (OC)-Mean Monthly Minimum 87 11 Precipitation (mm)-Mean Monthly and Total Annually 89 12 Relative humidity (%)-Mean Monthly and Mean Annually 91 13 Mean monthly discharge from the Kolahoi glacier at 94 Liddar Head-Aru (west Liddar)-1970, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1992, 1995, 2000 and 2005 14 Mean monthly discharge from the Kolahoi glacier at 96 Liddar Head-Aru (west Liddar)- 2007 and 2008 15 Total Annual Discharge from Kolahoi glacier at Liddar 98 Head-Aru (west Liddar) 1970-2008 16 Discharge of Liddar river at Sheshnag (East Liddar) 1992- 100 2008 17 Comparisons of discharge between the Kolahoi glacier 102 (West Liddar) and Sheshnag (East Liddar)- 1992, 1995, 2000 and 2008 18 Mean annually values of temperature (OC), precipitation 104 (mm) and discharge (cusecs) in Liddar basin (1980-2007)

ix LIST OF MAPS

Map No. Title Page No.

1 Location map of the study area 34

2 Satellite view of the study area 35

3 40 meter DEM of the Liddar valley 38

4 Geological map of the Liddar valley 42

5 Drainage map of the Liddar Catchment 47

6 Fluctuations in the snout position of the Kolahoi glacier 51 (1857-1984)

7 Glacier area 1963 58

8 Glacier area 1992 59

9 Glacier area 2005 60

10 Change detection map- 1963 and 1992 61

11 Change detection map- 1992 and 2005 62

12 Change detection map- 1963, 1992 and 2005 63

x LIST OF PLATES

Plate No. Title Page No. 1 Snout of Kolahoi glacier in 1909 52 2 Snout of Kolahoi glacier in 1961 52 3 Snout of Kolahoi glacier in 2007 53 4 Snout of Kolahoi glacier in 2011 53 5 Ice breaking at the accumulation zone of the Kolahoi 77 glacier (2007) 6 Ice breaking at the accumulation zone of the Kolahoi 77 glacier (2011) 7 Crevasses developed in Kolahoi glacier (2007) 78 8 Crevasses developed in Kolahoi glacier (2011) 78 9 Caves present in the snout of Kolahoi glacier (2007) 79 10 Caves present in the snout of Kolahoi glacier (20011) 79 11 Amount of debris present on the surface of the Kolahoi 80 glacier (2007) 12 Amount of debris present on the surface of the Kolahoi 80 glacier (2011)

xi LIST OF FIGURES

Fig. No. Title Page No. 1 Flow chart for change detection 26 2 Bar diagram showing glacier area (km2) 56 3 Total tourist flow to Pahalgam (lakh) 68 4 Tourist arrival to Pahalgam 68 5 Tourist estimation- Pahalgam 2025 68 6 Line graph showing number of Yatries coming to 70 Amarnath ji (lakh) 7 Population of Pahalgam 73 8 Estimated population of Pahalgam-2025 73 9 Mean monthly maximum temperature (oC) Liddar valley, 86 1980-2007 10 Mean annual maximum Temperature oC, Liddar Valley, 86 1980-2007 11 Mean monthly minimum temperature oC, Liddar valley, 88 1980-2007 12 Mean annual minimum Temperature oC, Liddar Valley, 88 1980-2007 13 Mean monthly precipitation (mm) in Liddar Valley, 1980- 90 2007 14 Total annual precipitation (mm), 1980-2007 90 15 Mean monthly relative humidity (%) in Liddar valley, 92 1980-2007 16 Mean annually relative humidity (%) in Liddar valley, 92 1980-2007 17 Bar diagram showing discharge from Kolahoi glacier from 97 1970-2008 18 Line graph showing discharge from Kolahoi glacier from 97 1970-2008 19 Total annual discharge from the Kolahoi glacier at Aru 99 (Liddar Head), 1970-2008

xii 20 Comparisons of discharge from Kolahoi glacier at Aru 99 between 1970, 1992, 2005 and 2008 21 Line graph showing mean monthly discharge comparison 101 between west and the east Liddar for the year 1992 22 Line graph showing mean monthly discharge comparisons 101 between west and the east Liddar for the year 2008 23 Showing discharge of the Liddar at Sheshnag (East Liddar) 103 1992-2008 24 Showing total annual discharge between west and the east 103 Liddar, 1992-2008 25 Bar graph showing comparisons between glacier area and 106 prevailing temperature conditions in Liddar basin, 1963, 1992 and 2005 26 Line graph showing comparisons between glacier area 106 and prevailing temperature conditions in Liddar basin, 1963, 1992 and 2005 27 Trends in total discharge and total glacier area between 107 1980 and 2005 in Liddar basin 28 Relationship between precipitation and discharge in the 107 Liddar basin (1980-2007) 29 Trends in temperature, precipitation and discharge 108 between 1980 and 2007 in Liddar basin

xiii Chapter – 1 Introduction

1.1. INTRODUCTION

Glaciers are dynamic entities which have changed in the past and will continue to change in response to the pulsations in the climatic scenario. During Pleistocene period, the glaciers occupied about 30 percent of the total area of earth as against 10 percent area at present (Flint, 1964). Glaciers are retreating in the face of accelerated global warming, and the resultant long-term loss of natural fresh water storage. Since industrialization, human activities have resulted in steadily increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to fears of enhanced greenhouse effect. As a result of green house gas effect, the world’s average surface temperature has increased between 0.3 and 0.6oC over the past hundred years (Samjwal, et al., 2006) as a result of which, the mountain glaciers have thinned, lost mass and retreated. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) has stated that thinning of glaciers since the mid 19th century has been oblivious and pervasive in many parts of the world. As per the recent reports, Siachin, Baltora, Yamnotri, Gangotari and other Himalayan Glaciers are receding at an alarming rate. Glaciers are defined as huge bodies of ice characterized with a downward and outward movement. A glacier has been formed on land from snow by compaction and recrystallisation. Negi (1982) states,” A glacier is a naturally moving body of large dimensions made up of crystalline ice (neve in the upper layers) formed on the earth’s surface as a result of accumulation of snow”. These are formed in suitable climate and topography in favourably located geological regions. Their formation is mostly governed by factors like high humidity, shady, gentle snow fields and extremely low temperatures.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC), in its third assessment report revealed that the rate and duration of the warming in the 20th century is larger than at any other time during the last one thousand years. The 1990s was likely to be the warmest decade of the millennium in the Northern

1 Chapter – 1 Introduction

Hemisphere, and the year 1998, the warmest year (IPCC, 2001a). According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the mean global temperature in 2005 is deviated by +0.47°C from the average of the normal period 1961 - 1990. It is thus one of the warmest years and currently ranks as the second warmest year worldwide (Faust, 2005), similarly year 2002 and 2003 will be the 3rd and 4th hottest years, respectively ever since climate statistics have been monitored and documented began in 1861. According to the IPCC, 2001 and their assessments based on climate models, the increase in global temperature will continue to rise during the 21st century. The increase in the global mean temperatures by 2100 could amount anything from 1.4 to 5.8°C, depending on the climate model and greenhouse gases emission scenario. On the Indian sub-continent average temperatures are predicted to rise between 3.5 and 5.5oC by 2100 (Lal, 2002). These changes in climate will inevitably interact with changes in glacier. The climatic fluctuations affect both the amount of snow and ice stored in, and the quantities of melt water runoff arising from the glaciers. Results show that the recession rate has increased with rising temperature. A forecast was made that up to a quarter of the present global mountain glacier mass could disappear by 2050 and up to half could be lost by 2100 due to global warming (Kuhn, 1993; Oerlemans, 1994; and IPCC, 1996). For example, with the temperatures rise by 1°C, Alpine glaciers have shrunk by 40% in area and by more than 50% in volume since 1850 (IPCC, 2001b & CSE, 2002). The IPCC’s 2007 working group II report asserted that Himalayan glaciers are “receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035”. A decrease of glacier mass of this magnitude presents a serious water resources problem for the millions of peoples living within the Himalayan region and in the adjoining plains. Climate change is causing the net shrinkage and retreat of glaciers and the increase in size and numbers of glacial lakes in

2 Chapter – 1 Introduction recent years. These changes in climate will have effects ultimately on life and property of mountain people.

In United Nations Rio conference on Environment, 1992, it was recognized that glacial fluctuation is an important Geo-indicator for assessing the climatic change. Global climatic fluctuations govern the sediment production, transport and hydrology of glacierized river basin. There can be a considerable variation in discharge from year to year which are usually the result of fluctuations in glacier mass balance, with weather conditions and ablation rates in the summer being the most significant.

Glaciers, at present, cover about 15 million sq. km or about 10 per cent of the land area of the earth. Over 96 per cent of the glacier ice, however, occurs in Antarctica and Greenland in the form of thick masses of ice sheet, average thickness being 2.2 km in Antarctica and 1.6 km in Greenland. The remainder of the earth’s present ice cover is mainly found in areas of high altitudes where precipitation is mostly in the form of snow. These include the earth’s great mountain belts- the Himalayas, the Alps, the Rockies and the Andes as well as Scandinavia, Newzealand and a few other areas (Dayal, 2007).

With a length of 2400 km and a width of 150-400 km, the Himalayan ranges are the biggest and tallest mountainous structure on earth. These high mountains are not only the source for several perennial rivers but also influence the climate and water cycle of the region (Reilly, 1996). Such impacts have the potential to directly affect the lives of 10% of the world’s population living in India, Pakistan, Bhutan, Nepal and Bangladesh. The glaciers of the Himalayan region are nature's renewable storehouse of fresh water that benefits hundreds of millions of people downstream, if properly used. In the Himalayas, the glaciers cover approximately 33,000 sq. km. area (Hasnain, 1989) and this is one of the largest concentrations of glacier stored water outside the Polar Regions of the earth. These glaciers are the dynamic resources and act as

3 Chapter – 1 Introduction natural reservoirs for supply of water to many major river systems in the northern India as the Indus, the Ganga and the Brahmputra (Thompson, et al., 2000). About 75% of the runoff in these three major river systems occurs between June and September, in response to the snow and glacier ice-melt (Collins and Hasnain, 1995). The annual contribution from snowmelt and runoff from non-glacierized areas during the early part of summer (April to June) amounts to 20%. As summer precedes (July to September) the contributions from melting glacier ice and water stored within the glaciers reach 50% (Hasnain, 1989). However, this source of water is not permanent as geological history of the earth indicates that glacial dimensions are constantly changing with changing climate. During Pleistocene the earth's surface has experienced repeated glaciation over a large landmass. The maximum area during the peak of glaciation was 46 Million sq. km. (Kulkarni, 2002). This is three times more than the present ice cover of the earth. Available data indicates that during the Pleistocene the earth has experienced four or five glaciation periods separated by an interglacial period. During an interglacial period climate was warmer and deglaciation occurred on a large scale. This suggests that glaciers are constantly changing with time and these changes can profoundly affect the runoff of Himalayan Rivers. The water reserves stored in the Himalayan glaciers is estimated to be about 1012 m3 (Puri, 1994).

It has been found that the discharge of Himalayan snow-fed rivers per unit area is roughly twice that of peninsular rivers of south India (Bahadur, 1988). This is mainly due to perennial contributions from melting snow and glacier ice. Meier and Roots (1982) have observed that the amount of precipitation in the form of snow has an inverse effect on the amount of runoff. Fresh snow is highly reflective so that it absorbs less heat and melts slowly, while old snow and glacier ice have a low reflectivity. Thus the greater the precipitation in the form of snow, the longer the glacier is covered by a highly reflective material, and the less the runoff. A decreased amount of snowfall

4 Chapter – 1 Introduction leads to a low-reflective surface being exposed longer, producing greater melt and increased runoff. Thus runoff from glaciers is naturally regulated in a way beneficial to humans, producing increased runoff at times of low precipitation (drought), and storing water when there is less need for it.

Hydrology is the science, which deals with the occurrence, distribution, movement, chemistry and disposal of water on the planet earth; it is the science which deals with the various phases of the hydrologic cycle. The study of hydrology helps us to know about the maximum probable flood that may occur at a given site and its frequency. It also helps in the study of water yield from a basin-its occurrence, quantity and frequency, etc; this is necessary for the design of dams, municipal water supply, water power, river navigation, etc. The importance of hydrology in the assessment, development, utilization and management of the water resources, of any region is being increasingly realized at all levels. It was in view of this, that the United Nations proclaimed the period of 1965-1974 as the International Hydrological Decade (IHD), during which, intensive efforts in hydrologic education research, development of analytical techniques and collection of hydrological information on a global basis, were promoted in Universities, Research Institutions, and Government Organizations. Later, the International Hydrological Decade (IHD) has converted itself into a permanent International Hydrological Programme (IHP). Glaciological studies have been linked with climate and hydrology and are directed towards solving the water-resources and water management problems, under this programme.

Snow plays an important role in the hydrologic cycle, through its effects on water storage and the land surface energy balance. Snowmelt is a significant surface water input of importance to many aspects of hydrology including water supply, erosion and flood control (Tarboton, et al., 1995). Water occurs as a fluid, as an interstitial liquid, as a solid and as interstitial ice within all glacial environments. As meltwater, it is active in debris erosion, entrainment

5 Chapter – 1 Introduction and deposition. Meltwater causes channel bed erosion and scour, and the development of complex drainage networks within all glacial environments (Menzies, 1995). Glacial hydrology, therefore, is an integral element in understanding all glacial environments and processes.

The distribution of snow accumulation in mountain regions is one of the most important controls in mountain river hydrology. The variability of snow accumulation makes accurate information on snowmelt processes difficult to obtain. The amount of snow and ice melt contributions in Himalayas vary from year to year depending on the amount of precipitation at high altitudes and the prevalent environmental conditions during the melt season.

Glacier discharge is dominated by melt water runoff. Precipitation usually has a negative influence on glacier runoff because incoming solar radiation is reduced and if precipitation is in the form of snow a higher albedo is created. Glacier runoff variations generally exhibit a reverse pattern to a rain dominated runoff regime. Thus, in large mountain basins, only partially glacierzed, the upper parts will experience a melt water runoff regime, where as in the lower parts of the basin runoff will be dominated by rainfall. This counterbalancing effect of precipitation and melt processes in glacier reduce the variability of annual flow. Kasser (1959) has noted that a minimum variation in annual runoff in the European Alps occurs in river basins with 30- 40 per cent glacier cover, while during the main ablation period in August the minimum variation is associated with a glacier cover of 30-60 per cent (Rothlisberger and Lang, 1987).

The hydrology of glacierized regions is thermally controlled. Runoff results from interaction of precipitation with environmental thermodynamic characteristics. Variations in energy availability lead to fluctuations in melting of snow and ice and the production of melt water. Because of the thermal threshold snow and ice masses are prevented from entering the liquid phase until the critical melting temperature has been attained. Seasonal variations in

6 Chapter – 1 Introduction the form of precipitation from winter snowfall to summer rain, and energy supply usually peaking to a summer maximum, produce strong seasonal periodicity of hydrological event which influences quantity, quality and timing of drainage (Young, 1985). Typically, minimum flow of a glacierized river, close to the glacier, is recorded in the early hours of the morning, between seven and ten, and the maximum reaches in late afternoon, between three and six, so that each diurnal hydrograph is asymmetrical, with the rising limb steeper that recession, and the peak lagged by several hours after the time of maximum solar radiation.

It has been estimated that there are about 15000 glaciers in the Himalayan region, covering an area of about 33,200 sq. km. This is about 17 % of the total geographical area of the Himalaya (Wissman, 1959). Glaciers in the Indian Himalaya covers an area of 23,000 km2, broadly divided into three river basins-- Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra. The Indus basin has the largest number of glaciers 3,538, followed by the Ganga basin 1,020 and Brahmaputra 662. The contribution of snow and ice melt mount to roughly 400-800 cubic kms (Bahadur, 2000). The glaciers situated in five states ( Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh) in which Kashmir has the largest concentration with 3,136 glaciers covering 32,00 km2, nearly 13% of the State’s territory (Hasnain, 1999). Glaciers are important storage of fresh water in Kashmir as they accumulate mass; particularly in the winter and provide meltwater at lower elevation. The importance of glaciers is not only limited to Kashmir only: all the water from Jhelum finally falls in the Indus. Therefore any significant change in glacier mass is certain to impact water resources on a regional level. Snow and Glacier melt water guarantee a certain amount of base flow throughout the year to Kashmir Rivers. With fast recession of glaciers, base flow of Kashmir Rivers will be affected very adversely. For this, it is essential to know the total number of glaciers, their

7 Chapter – 1 Introduction volume and the volume of melt water they generate in different climatic regions of Kashmir valley.

1.2. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

Glaciological studies in the Himalaya are essentially aimed at managing the large water reserves of the glaciers, especially to study the response of glaciers and snow cover to the changing climate of the region, as one of its long-term objectives. Himalayan glaciers are generally situated above 3500m asl, and these regions are away from human settlements. Hence water derived from snow and glaciers is being used for drinking, agriculture and power generation only at lower altitudes of the mountain. This peculiar situation, specific to the Himalayan region, demands development of snow/glacier resource management strategies, far below its origin. Due to lack of information on hydrological processes of snow/glacier regime, water resource management policies at lower reaches of the glacier-fed rivers are often formulated without considering the impact of glaciers and snow cover on river hydrology. A systematic and sustained study of hydro-meteorological process of snow and glacial regime is necessary for evaluating changes in the hydrology of Mountain Rivers due to glacier recession and climate change.

Glaciers are of vital ecological and environmental significance as their existence is the prerequisite for the perenniality of the rivers and consequently has got immense agricultural and economic importance. Furthermore, glaciers are sensitive indicators of climatic variability and the magnitude of this climatic variability could be traced out by analyzing the changing spatial extent of glaciers. A glacier is a very suitable tool for the measurement of atmospheric conditions; from a study of present day coupling between glaciers and their environment, we should be able to retrieve the information about past climates that is stored in glacier and in the morphology of its surroundings.

8 Chapter – 1 Introduction

Recently, study of glaciers has acquired immense importance as they form extensive inventory of fresh water, estimated at 75% of total fresh water available on the earth, which is increasingly becoming a very valuable material for sustaining human life on this planet (Singh, 2008). They are thought to conceal very important mineral resources underneath. The study of Antarctic area in last few years has acquired tremendous importance for all the big and small nations. They are also known to play very significant role in the water- management-based systems of the globe as a whole. Besides, these exert considerable influence on the climate of a region and fluctuate in dimension in response to the climatological changes and therefore, these are regarded as sensitive indicators of the climate of a region. They work as water supply reservoirs, releasing more water under drought conditions caused by less precipitation and less water under flood conditions caused by high precipitation.

Himalayas contains the third largest snow and ice mass in the world after Antarctica and Greenland. With 15,000 glaciers covering an area of about 33,000 km2, the region is aptly called the “Water Tower of Asia” as it provides around 8.6 x 106 m3 of water annually (Dyurgerov and Maier, 1997). It is important to mention here, that snow and glacier covered mountains in the Himalaya are perennial sources of rivers and streams which flow out of the Himalaya. Rivers originating in the Himalayas receive a substantial contribution from the glacier melt that goes up, considerably, during the melt season. This region is therefore, immensely rich in water resources and possess huge potential of hydro power generation. Any fluctuation in this contribution is bound to have impact on the hydroelectric power potential and the irrigation potential of these rivers. To utilize these worthless natural resources, it is necessary to study the Himalayan glaciers in a greater detail, and map all the area with permanent and seasonal ice cover and calculate the total volume of water available in different parts of the year.

9 Chapter – 1 Introduction

The Himalayan glaciers play an important role in modulating the climate and hydrology of the Indian subcontinent. Therefore, Monitoring of snow- related processes can play a significant role in the hydrological analysis, water resources evaluation, control and management of mountainous reservoirs, flood controlling and hydropower production. Estimation of the rate and volume of water released from the snow is needed for the efficient management of water resources.

Snow and Glacier melt water feed permanently the rivers and groundwater of the Kashmir Valley. Any change in the climatic parameters like temperature or winter precipitation in the form of snowfall influences the flow in the hydrological system of the valley. The main glaciers of the Kashmir valley are Kolahoi, Sonamarg, Machoi, Nehnar, Sheshnag, Aru, etc. Different river systems and their tributaries originate from these glaciers. Most of the water resources are dependent on these glaciers in the valley. The sericulture, irrigation, hydropower generation, domestic water supply all depends on these surrounding glaciers. These glaciers are also the main source for recharging the aquifers of the valley.

The Kashmir Himalayan glaciers play a great role in the meteorology and socio-economics of the state. In the valley, the agriculture being main source of income for locality depends severely on the melt from glaciers. Having a large potential to generate hydro power from the melt, the valley glaciers hold considerable importance from the economic point of view. Mapping and monitoring of glaciers, therefore, has considerable socio- economic significance, as these have much importance in planning, management of hydro-electric, irrigation projects and management of establishments located in glaciated regions. It is as such imperative to study the Kashmir glaciers, their geomorphology and retreat in order to manage the water resources (both surface and underground) for irrigation, domestic and hydropower generation.

10 Chapter – 1 Introduction

As a consequence of the possible impacts of global warming and regional and local pollution, the area under snow and ice are likely to decrease substantially affecting the low flows in the rivers of the Kashmir valley. This has led to drastic reduction of water supply from the glaciers to the adjoining areas of the valley. This reduction in the water supply is due to the fast recession of the valley glaciers. Almost all the glaciers in the valley are in the state of fast retreat. Same trend of retreat is found in the valley’s largest glacier- the Kolahoi. This glacier is nourished by westerly system during winter and ablation takes place during summer period with no impact of SW monsoon system. The Kolahoi glacier is receding very fast because of climatic change and anthropogenic pressure. The various factors responsible for its recession may be: Tourism, Increasing population, Yatras, Increasing activity of Gujjars and Bakarwalls near the glacier, Cement plants, Deforestation, below normal precipitation occurred during the period of snow accumulation, etc. These are perhaps the main reasons for accelerating the rate of its melting during recent times. The meltwater from this glacier feeds the west Liddar river and downstream in the valley, it joined and forms River Jhelum, which is the main source of water and livelihood to entire Kashmir valley. Its recession will affect the crop production of the valley. The stream (west Liddar) fed by the Kolahoi glacier also shows an increase in the discharge for last few decades as compared to the other streams fed dominantly by snow melt. This increase in discharge indicates the fast melting of the glacier.

Qualitative and quantitative data of glaciers and snow melt water go a long way in planning, estimating and forecasting the power generation of river basins well in advance. Considering the large number of glaciers in our state such data is almost negligible at present. It is, therefore, need of an hour to know about the total glacial cover of the valley and analyze its role in the hydrological scenario of the valley. Kashmir Himalayas although rich in glaciers are least studied in comparison to other glaciers of the Himalayas

11 Chapter – 1 Introduction

(Hussain, 1999). Taking this aspect and the receding trend of world and Himalayan glaciers and their role in the Hydrological cycle of the valley into consideration, the present study is attempt to study the impact of Glaciers on the Hydrology of Kashmir rivers, to generate a data set and to estimate and comprehend the vulnerability of these glaciers to various natural and unnatural impacts.

1.3. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The main objectives of the present study are:

1. To detect the change in the spatial extent of the glacier within three time periods- viz., 1963, 1992 and 2005. 2. To study the hydro-meteorological characteristics of the study area. 3. To evaluate the impact of climatic change on the health of the Kolahoi glacier. 4. To suggest a Geo-Environmental strategy for sustaining the Kolahoi glacier.

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2.1. LITERATURE REVIEW

While snow has been known for centuries, our knowledge of glaciers is relatively recent. Even in India, where rivers are considered sacred and their sources in remote Himalayan glaciers have been places of Pilgrimage for centuries, there was no word for glacier. Only the mountain people who encountered glaciers, in crossing high passes, in the summer, have used local and distinctly names, such as bamak, gal, for them.

Glacier observations started in Europe towards the middle of the 18th century-1747, though information about the snout position of some of the surging glaciers is available from as early as 1735. Truly, scientific observation of the glaciers started in Europe only towards the beginning of the nineteenth century. These observations were generally restricted to the snout monitoring and mapping of the geo-morphological features.

Interest in the snow and glaciers of the Himalayas began with observations regarding the Snow Line or the ‘line of perpetual snow’ in the 1840s (Hombolt, 1845; Batten, 1845; Cunninham, 1849, etc.). The Pindari glacier was the first one to be reported upon- by E. Madden (1847), and has been a very popular subject since then. W.T. Blandford wrote his ‘Note on Glaciers in Hindustan’ in 1873; his ‘Remarks on Himalayan glaciers’ in 1877 and ‘Note on Age and Ancient glaciers of the Himalaya’ in 1891.

Kasser (1959) has noted that a minimum variation in annual runoff in the European Alps occurs in river basins with 30-40 per cent glacier cover, while during the main ablation period in August the minimum variation is associated with a glacier cover of 30-60 per cent.

A scientific and comprehensive study of glaciers was made by International Hydrological Decade (IHD) 1965-74, which has converted itself into a permanent International Hydrological Programme (IHP). Glaciological studies have been linked with climate and hydrology and are directed towards

13 Chapter – 2 Literature Review solving the water-resources and water management problems, under this programme.

Japanese scientists with some collaboration from the Nepal govt. have been engaged in the study of glaciers in Nepal since 1973. The study of snow cover and of glaciers has been undertaken with international participation of Pakistan in connection with the building of the Tarbeladam.

Higuchi, et al. (1976), have calculated the Water discharge of Imja Khola in Khumbu Himalayas. They find that the Specific discharge from the Imja River in Nepal was 1200 mm.

Nakawo, et al. (1976), have studied the Water discharge of Rikha Samba Khola in Hidden Valley, Mukut Himalayas. They find that the discharge variations in the Rikha Samba River are found to be closely linked with variations in the solar radiation fluxes.

Inoe (1977) has made estimation on mass balance of Khumbu Glacier in Mt. Sagarmtha (Everest) region. He showed that the mass supply from the surrounding wide walls by avalanches and snow drifting is more important for the equilibrium of mass balance for the whole area of the glacier; such mass supply was estimated to be nearly three times of direct snowfall into the glacier.

Ageta, et al. (1980), in the Nepal Himalaya, have studied many long term observations on the mass balance of glaciers in east Nepal. They observed on the basis of experimental results on small glacier that the altitude difference between the equilibrium lines for annual balance and balance in summer is less than 50 meters due to little accumulation in winter, and the rising equilibrium line is more towards the lower temperature altitude in the lower precipitation area due to less sensitivity of mass balance due to the change of air temperature in the colder conditions at the higher altitudes. On the other hand, large glaciers which have large accumulation basins with peaks above 6000 meters,

14 Chapter – 2 Literature Review precipitation doesn’t change to rain, since it is cold enough to keep snowfall. Therefore, the variations of large glaciers don’t depend as strongly on air temperature as that of small glaciers.

In Pakistan Korakoram Mountains, the Snow and Ice Hydrology Project (SIHP) was conceived in 1981, as collaborative programme of study of snow and glacier hydrology in the upper Indus basin, as a cooperative venture between IDRC, Canada and the Govt. of Pakistan. Wildfried Laurier University, Canada and Alpine glacier project of the University of Manchester, England were also involved in this project. Batura glacier basin was gauged to investigate climate-glacier-runoff relationship. Detailed measurement of temporal variation of suspended sediment flux in meltwater draining the Batura glaciers indicate the annual sediment yield of 6.0 kt. Km2 per year to 10.14 kt. Km2 per year was estimated from the glacier subsole assuming all sediment is derived from glacier erosion.

Young (1982) has studied the hydrological relationship in a glacierized mountain basin- hydrological aspect of alpine and high mountain areas.

Li Jijun, et al. (1986) have studied the termini of 100 glaciers in Beijing. Theye found 47 glaciers were advancing and 53 were retreating. The intensively studied glaciers, such as Jiabula glacier, the Gechongba glacier, Bala glacier etc. were all retreating. Most glaciers retreated from 10m to several tens of meters.

Fukushima, et al. (1987) have observed the Runoff characteristics in three glacier covered watersheds of Langtang Valley, Nepal Himalayas. They find that the River run-off in the Langtang valley varied between 0.51 and 13.1 mm d–1.

Motoyama, et al. (1987) have studied the winter runoff in the glacierised drainage basin in Langtang Valley, Nepal Himalayas. They find that the winter discharge of Langtang valley constitutes 4% of the annual discharge.

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Liu Chaohai, et al. (1999) have studied on the glacier variations and its runoff responses in the arid region of Northwest China.

Liu Jingshi, et al. (1999) have emphasizes on the hydrological response of meltwater from glacier covered mountain basins to climate change in northeast china.

Ahmad Najafi Eigdir (2003) has investigated the snowmelt runoff in the Orumiyeh region, using modelling, GIS and RS techniques.

Baolin, et al. (2004) have used the technique of remote sensing for the detection of glacier changes in Tianshan Mountains for the past 40 years. From 1963 to 2000, all the eight glaciers except for one retreated over 70 m and the retreating velocity was generally 5 m/a, but the glacier change varied greatly in different stages. From 1963 to 1977, four of the eight glaciers advanced, two of them retreated and another two kept stable, the glacier advanced generally. From 1977 to 1986, four of the eight glaciers retreated and the others kept stable. The retreating velocity was 10-30 m/a. However, the retreated glaciers were those advanced from 1963 to 1977. This showed that glacier retreat became obvious but not very great. From 1986 to 2000, seven of the eight glaciers retreated and only one glacier kept stable, the retreating velocity was 10-15 m/a. This showed that the glacier retreat in this period became very fast and universal.

Peter, et al. (2007) have Traced the glacier wastage in the Northern Tien Shan (Kyrgyzstan/Central Asia) over the last 40 years. The changes observed during the whole time period encompass (1) a decrease in average area, (2) melting along the perimeter, (3) complete disappearance of former small glaciers, (4) increase of the outcrop area, and (5) separation from parent glaciers. The widespread global glacier wastage observed since the late 1970s- with a marked acceleration in the late 1980s (Khromova et al., 2003; Paul et al., 2004) - also occurred in the Sokoluk watershed. In fact, the annual area

16 Chapter – 2 Literature Review decrease more than doubled, from 0.6% for the period 1963-1986 to 1.3% for the period 1986-2000.

Yong Zhang, et al. (2007) have studied the Glacier change and glacier runoff variation in the Tuotuo River basin, the source region of Yangtze River in Western China.

Daniel Steiner, et al. (2008) have studied the sensitivity of European glaciers to precipitation and temperature.

Xin Gao, et al. (2010) have observed the glacier runoff variation and its influence on river runoff during 1961-2006 in the Tarim river basin, China.

The United Nation Environmental Programme, Regional Resource Centre for Asia and Pacific (UNEP/RRC-AP), Bangkok, supported MENRIS/ICIMOD to create a comprehensive inventory and GIS database of glaciers and glacial lakes in Nepal and Bhutan.

Glacial studies in India marked its beginning in late 19th century with the snout measurements of a few glaciers. Realizing the importance as per the “Commission International des Glacier”, secular movement studies were carried out between 1906 and 1912. Cotter and Brown (1906) studied termini of Pindari, Milam, Shankalpa and Potting glaciers of united provinces, besides glaciers of Lahul valley. Grinlinton (1912) studied termini of Baling, Sona, Cholungli, Naulphu, Nipchungkang, Dangan, Yamerson, Kharsa, Chingchinmauri, and Raulphu glaciers of the Dhauli and Yankri valley. Gilbert and Auden (1932 and 1935), studied the snouts of glaciers in Arwa valley and Gangotri. The International Geo-physical year (1957-58), followed by International Hydrological Decade (1965-1974), led to monitoring of several glaciers that include, Gangotri, Milam, Pindari, Machoi, Sonapani, etc.

Kanwar Sain (1945) was first to investigated the connection between snow/Ice glaciers and water resources in the Himalayas. He studied the role of glaciers and hydrology of Punjab Rivers and because of his efforts, J.E.

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Church, a celebrated American expert, visited India in 1947 to organize snow surveys in the Himalayas.

Gulati (1973) has studied the role of snow and ice hydrology in India. He delineated the glacierized areas in 20 major rivers having their catchments in the Himalaya.

Bahadur (1988) has studied the Himalayan water from snow, ice and glaciers. It has been found by him that the discharge of Himalayan snow-fed rivers per unit area is roughly twice that of peninsular rivers of south India

Sharma, et al. (1991), have calculated the Water and sediment yields into the Sutlej river from the high Himalaya. They find that 80% of annual flow of the Sutlej River occurs between May and September.

Collins and Hasnain (1995) studied about 75% of the runoff in three major river systems; the Brahmputra, Ganga and Indus occurs between June and September in response to the snow and glacier-melt.

Puri and Swaroop (1995) have analysed the Relationship of glacierised area and summer mean daily discharge of glacier basin in Jhelum, Satluj and Alaknanda catchments in Northwestern Himalaya. They find that the Mean daily discharges of central and western Himalayan glaciers were well correlated with the glacierized area.

Collins (1996) has estimated that about 60% of the annual sediment of the Hunza and 40 persent of that of Indus leaving the Karakoram is glacier derived.

Singh, et al. (1997) have estimated the snow and glacier contribution to the Chenab river, western Himalaya. They find that the Chenab basin by water balance method suggested 49% of snow and glacier contribution to the Chenab at Akhnoor.

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Philip and Ravindran (1998) have used the Remote sensing technique and studied glacial mapping using Lansat Thematic Mapper data: A case study in parts of Gangotri glacier, NW Himalaya. Visual interpretation of the images has been carried out based on standard photo interpretation methods and subsequently digital image processing has been carried out. In the visible bands of Landsat TM, the highly reflected surface of snow and glaciers reach saturation limits and are not useful in discriminating snow types and mapping land forms in these areas. But the TM Bands 4, 5 and 7 in the NIR and SWIR regions are found to be very useful not only in snow mapping but also in identifying various glacial landforms.

Bhutiyani (1999) has taken the mass-balance studies on Siachen glacier in the Nubra Valley, Karakoram Himalaya, India. He finds that the mean specific run-off from the Siachen glacier in western Himalaya was 1392 mm between 1986 and 1991.

Hasnain and Thayyen (1999) have calculated the Discharge and suspended sediment concentration of meltwaters, draining from the Dokriani glacier, Garhwal Himalaya, India. They find that the Summer-specific run-off from the Dokriani glacier in the Ganga basin was 3949 mm in 1994.

Thompson, et al. (2000) have studied a high-resolution millennial record of the south Asian monsoon from Himalayan ice cores.

Kumar, et al. (2001) have studied the Discharge and suspended sediment in melt waters of Gangotri glacier, Garhwal Himlaya, India. They find that the summer discharge from the Gangotri glacier, the largest glacier in the Garhwal Himalaya was 565 106 and 479 106 m3 in 1999 and 2000 respectively.

Swaroop, et al. (2001) have studied the Short term run-off and ablation characteristics of Triloknath glacier, Lahul and Spiti district. They find that

19 Chapter – 2 Literature Review during the peak melting period of the Triloknath glacier, one-third of bulk run- off comes from the ablation over the glacier.

Hasnain (2002) has observed the Himalayan glaciers meltdown and their impact on south Asian rivers-a case study of the Dokriani glacier (Ganga basin). In this study, he examines how climatic change influences glacier behaviour and the quantity of discharge in rivers draining from glaciated Himalayan basins.

Singh and Jain (2002) have studied the Snow and glacier melt in the Satluj River at Bhakra Dam in the western Himalayan region. They find that the snow/glacier melt contribution at Bhakra dam is about 59%.

Kulkarni, et al. (2003) have estimated the recent glacial variations in Baspa basin using remote sensing technique. Mapping of glacial extent in 1962 and 2001 has shown a loss of 19% area and 23% loss in glacial volume. The increase in global temperature in the last century was observed as 0.6+_ 0.2oc (IPCC, 2001). Investigations have shown that average stream runoff of the Baspa river in december from 1967 to 1995 has gone up by 75%. This is due to the shrinking of glaciers.

Dobhal, et al. (2004) have studied the Recession and Morpho geometrical changes of Dokriani glacier (1962–1995) Garhwal Himalaya, India. In order to study the total snout recession of Dokriani glacier during the period of investigation, three sets of data were obtained: (i) total recession between 1962 and 1991 was obtained as 480 m, with an average rate of 16.5m/yr; (ii) comparison of snout position from the maps of 1962 and 1995 showed that the snout retreated by 550 m during the period calculated with an average rate of 16.6 m/yr; (iii) field observation carried out during the period 1991–95 showed that the glacier has receded by about 69.9 m with an average rate of 17.4 m/yr .The study reveals that the snout of the glacier is continuously retreating and the annual rate increased slightly. Overall average rate calculated

20 Chapter – 2 Literature Review during the period 1962–95 is 16.6 m/yr; however, the present study (1991–95) reveals that the snout recession rate has increased by 1 m/yr. This increasing recession rate is probably attributed to the effect of global warming. The progressive recession of Dokriani glacier snout indicates that it has undergone marked changes in shape and position.

Kulkarni, et al. (2006) have studied Recession of Samudra Tapu glacier, Chandra river basin, Himachal Pradesh. The study shows a total recession of glacier about 741 m during the period of 38 years (1962-2000), with an average rate of 19.5 m/yr. In addition, glacial extent is reduced from 73 to 65 km2 between 1962 and 2000, suggesting overall deglaciation of 11% during this period.

Kulkarni, et al. (2007) have studied the glacial retreat in Himalaya using Indian Remote Sensing satellite data. In their investigation, glacial retreat was estimated for 466 glaciers in Chenab, Parbati and Baspa basins from 1962. The investigation has shown an overall reduction in glacier area from 2077 sq. km. in 1962 to 1628 sq. km. at present, an overall deglaciation of 21%.

Renoj, et al. (2007) have studied the Role of Glaciers and Snow cover on headwater river hydrology in monsoon regime- Micro-scale study of Din Gad catchment, Garhwal, Himalayas, India. The study shows that the hydrometric station at 2360 m asl (Tela) experienced 45% reduction in summer discharge from 1998 to 2000, which translated into a twofold increase in the percentage glacier contribution. This paradox resulted from variations in the winter precipitation characteristics masking the run-off variations of the glacial regime. Glacier degraded run-off volume varied from 3.5% of the bulk glacier discharge in 1994 to 7.5% in 1999. This study suggests that the uncertainties in the precipitation characteristics in a changing climate, especially the winter snowfall have pronounced effect on the headwater river run-off variability rather than the run-off variations from a receding glacier. On the other hand,

21 Chapter – 2 Literature Review glaciers play an important role in sustaining the river flows during the years of low summer run-off.

Limited work has been done on the glacial studies of Kashmir region. There is a good deal of information about the geology of the Kashmir Himalayas in the Geological survey of India reports but little has been done on the Kashmir glaciers.

The earlier reference on the glaciers of the Kashmir Himalayas was made by Schlagintweit brothers (1861) in the form of paintings, sketches and maps. Their paintings on Kolahoi Glacier were useful in measuring the glacier speed and the glacierisation of the area. Holland (1907), classified the Kashmir glaciers into longitudinal and transverse types on the basis of their origin. He gave only passing reference to the study area.

Neve (1910) was the first to study and prepare the map of the Kolahoi and its Northern glaciers in detail. He documented its movement during 1887 to 1909. In his study, he says, Kolahoi glacier has receded quite a quarter of a mile since my first visit in 1887. His authentic observations were supported by later investigations.

Dainelli (1922) and De Terra (1939) were among the first few glaciologists to give a detailed account of glaciations of the Kashmir valley on the basis of the Pleistocene deposits. They detected four main phases of the glaciation on the basis of moraines and varves in Kerewa deposits. Danielle reported Roche Mountonees and Subglacial moraines along one of the valley walls of the Southern Liddar valley near Phalgam but De Terra and Patterson did not accept his views on the glacial origin.

Grinlinton (1928) mapped the glaciated section of the East Liddar valley and gave a general distribution of few erosional and depositional features. On the basis of the depositional features he suggested that there were two glacial epochs. During the second epoch there were many advances and retreats.

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Wadia (1941) and Krishnan (1960) described the Pleistocene ice age deposits of Kashmir and also gave comprehensive straitigraphy of the Southeastern part of Kashmir. They documented four glacial advances on the basis of glacial deposits.

Odell (1963) has studied the Kolahoi Northern glacier, Kashmir. In his study, he observed that the present altitude of the snout is about 12,000 ft. in relation to the contours on the above maps; and the lower reaches of the glacier at any rate are in a very passive and shrinking condition.

Ahmad and Hashmi (1974) studied glacial history of Kolahoi (West Liddar). On the basis of the glacial deposits they documented three glacial advances. Ahmad (1979) also investigated the moraines of Kashmir and described their distribution.

Mayekwski (1979) analysed the fluctuation records of the glaciers of the Himalaya and of study area on the basis of historical documents. He (1981) also investigated the glacial chemistry of Kashmir Glaciers.

Kaul (1982) studied the glacial and fluvial geomorphology of the Wangat basin (Sind river), Kashmir valley. He observes that Wangat basin has Harmukh glaciers in the north and has been influenced by its erosional and depositional features. He studied their glacial movement, snow lines, snout positions, etc.

Kaul (1990) studied the glacial and fluvial geomorphology of western Himalaya (Liddar valley). He studied the dynamics of the Liddar glaciers, their geomorphic features- erosional and depositional, etc. He also studied the measurement of depth of accumulated snow of Kolahoi glacier by sounding method. He also studied the fluctuations in the snout positions of Kolahoi glacier since 1857 to 1984. While fulfilling the objective of landform features and morphology character, origin and chronology, he documented that region has polygenetic landforms produced by glacial and fluvial processes.

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Ahmad, et al. (2009) studied glacier recession by taking a case study of the Kolahoi glacier, J and K (India). They observe that the Kolahoi glacier is receding at an alarming rate of above 20 metres per year. Their present data also shows that the glacier is all set to vanish by 2050 or so.

Jeelani and Hasnain (2010) have studied Response of Kolahoi glacier, Kashmir Himalaya to climate change; A preliminary study. They analyze that the area of the glacier is decreased by about 15% (0.04 km2/year) from 1962 to 2008. The data indicate that there is significant increase in the rate of glacier recession for last few decades. It appears that global and regional warming, below normal precipitation occurred during the period of snow accumulation are perhaps the main reasons for accelerating the rate of its melting during recent times. The stream (West Liddar) fed by the Kolahoi glacier also shows an increase in the discharge for last few decades as compared to the other streams fed dominantly by snow melt.

Since a little work has been done on the glaciers of the Kashmir valley particularly on their Hydrological aspects and their recession, the present study is being undertaken to identify the change that has taken place in the spatial extent of the Kolahoi glacier over a period of more than three decades, viz. 1963, 1992 and 2005. The result clearly shows that there is a rapid decrease in the spatial extent of the Kolahoi glacier from 1963 to 2005. The study also attempts to examine the impact of this glacier on the hydrological scenario of the valley. Due to the fast melting of the glacier, there is an increase in its discharge. Lastly, an attempt is made to devise a comprehensive Geo- environmental strategy for the management of this precious resource.

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3.1. DATA SETS USED

The primary and secondary sources constitute the data base for the present study. The primary data was generated and obtained through the field surveys and observations. The secondary data was obtained from various secondary sources like books, journals, magazines, internet, published and unpublished reports, newspapers, etc.

To carry out the study, following data sets were employed.

3.1.1. SOI Toposheets

The Survey of India topographical maps, viz., 43 N/4, 43 N/8, 43 N/12, 43 O/1 and 43 O/5 of the scale 1: 50,000 were used in the present study for the preparation of a base map.

3.1.2. Satellite Data

For detecting the glacier changes with remote sensing, there must be images acquired in different years. Hence, Landsat series of earth observation satellite, which firstly launched in early 1970s and IRS 1C LISS III, were chosen for this study. The geometrically corrected Landsat ETM image for the year 1992 and IRS 1C LISS III for the year 2005 were used to study the changes in the spatial extent of the Kolahoi glacier. In general, image selection for glacier mapping is guided by acquisition at the end of the ablation period, cloud-free conditions, and lack of snow fields adjacent to the glacier.

3.1.3. Softwares

The work was carried out, utilizing the techniques of Remote Sensing & GIS in the Erdas Imagine 8.4 and Arc view 3.2a.

3.1.4. Meteorological Data

In this study, the regional climate change has been discussed using observations at the meteorological station located in Pahalgam, Anantnag. This meteorological dataset consists of mean monthly maximum and minimum

25 Chapter – 3 Materials and Methods temperatures, mean monthly and total annual precipitation and mean monthly and mean annual relative humidity. It has been obtained from India Meteorological Department, Srinagar for the years between 1980 and 2008.

3.1.5. Discharge Data

Discharge data was obtained from the Flood and Irrigation Department, Srinagar. In this study, discharge from the Kolahoi glacier at Aru- Liddar Head (west Liddar) has been observed for the years between 1970 to 2008. Discharge from the Sheshnag (east Liddar) has also been observed in this study to analyze the contribution from these two upper streams to the Liddar river.

3.2. METHODOLOGY

The research applied an integrated approach by using Remote Sensing, GIS and field data.

To achieve the objectives of the present study, the methodology adopted to carry out the change detection of the Kolahoi glacier is given in the below mentioned flow chart (Figure 1).

Methodology Adopted

Landsat Digital Data SOI Toposheet (1963) Landsat ETM 1992 IRS 1C LISS III 2005

Digital Image Processing Digital Image Processing

Geo-referencing STUDY AREA EXTRACTION Digitization Digitization

Study Area Extraction Change Detection

GLACIAL DATABASE Fig.1: Flow Chart for Change Detection.

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3.2.1. Preparation of the Base Map

Since, it is not possible to collect the huge amount of information directly from the field; recourse to topographical maps has to be taken in any kind of geomorphological studies. The topographical maps provide a plethora of information in a simplified way and serve as an important tool for geographers. A detailed topographical map provides much definite and exact information which can be used as a basis for various purposes, a starting point for further analysis. Significant contours can be extracted, outlines can be traced as a basis for plotting field information, gradients, slopes and relative relief can be calculated and profiles can be drawn. More advanced interpretation of topographical maps helps in examining and explaining various geomorphological concepts. According to Monkhouse, a large scale topographical map is secondary only to the ground itself in such work.

A base map is an outline map used for plotting information. It usually consists of boundary lines and other required information like contours, field boundaries, natural drainage, vegetation, land use, roads, and settlement patterns, etc. These outlines are extracted from topographical and other maps. Necessary information like contours, drainage lines, locations, etc. were traced from toposheets meticulously and hence with a fair degree of accuracy. The tracing sheets were then juxtaposedly joined. In this way a complete Base Map was prepared.

3.2.2. Delineation and Demarcation of Glacier from the Toposheet

The Kolahoi glacier was identified using topographic map of the survey of India (1:50,000 scale, 43 N/8) surveyed in 1963. Glacier boundary was initially delineated manually and then the glacier area for the year 1963 was delineated and demarcated with the help of the techniques of remote sensing. The topographic map was first geo-referenced and then digitized in the GIS

27 Chapter – 3 Materials and Methods environment by using the techniques of remote sensing softwares of ERDAS Imagine and ArcView respectively.

3.2.3. Satellite Data Selection

It can be seen in past studies that there are different kinds of methods for mapping or monitoring the glaciers with remote sensing. These methods can be grouped into three: manual delineation of the glacier outline from different color combinations, segmentation of ratio images and various supervised and unsupervised classification techniques. There are several studies applied and had successful results with each of three methods for different glacier areas in the world.

To study the change in the spatial extent of the glacier, the Landsat ETM image for the year 1992 with the spatial resolution of 30 metres and IRS 1C LISS III for the year 2005 with the spatial resolution of 23.5 metres were selected. To detect the change in the spatial extent of the glacier, two time periods were selected. First time period starts from 1963 to 1992, which indicates a time period of 29 years and other time period starts from 1992 to 2005, which indicates a time period of 13 years. In nutshell, we have to find the change in the spatial extent of the glacier between 1963 and 2005, a time period of 42 years.

3.2.3.1. Registration and Pre-Processing

Before using the satellite imageries for analysis, each image was geometrically corrected and different contrast enhancements were used to enhance the interpretability of the images. All satellite images were geometrically corrected using the 1:50,000 topographical map and projected into the world geodetic system 1984 (WGS84) and the universal transverse Mercator (UTM) coordinate system.

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3.2.3.2. Visual Image Interpretation

Visual interpretation of the images has been carried out based on standard photointerpretation methods and subsequently digital image processing has been carried out.

The images were visually interpreted, using the clues such as tone, color, texture, pattern, shadow, shape and association, etc. To differentiate between the clouds and snow/glaciers, various color composites were analyzed. Although all the remote sensing data were received in September, the seasonal snow was obvious on the images.

3.2.4. Layer Extraction from the SOI Toposheet and the Satellite Data

Before using the satellite imageries for analysis, each image was geometrically corrected and different contrast enhancements were used to enhance the interpretability of the images. The SOI topographic map at the scale of 1:50,000, of the study area was first scanned and then registered using Erdas Imagine software. For the registration, the Ground Control Points (GCPs) at the intersection of latitude-longitude were selected. Process of image to image registration was then adopted for the registration of scanned imageries with SOI topographic maps. AOI function of ERDAS Imagine software was used for on screen digitization and to obtain the boundary of the glacier from the registered SOI topographic map. By using the subset option, the glacial areas from the imageries were also extracted. Images of September 1992 and 2005 were selected, because during this time period snow cover is at its minimum and glaciers are generally fully exposed. On satellite images, glacial boundary was mapped using standard combinations of bands such as band 2 (0.52-0.59 mm), band 3 (0.62-0.68 mm) and band 4 (0.77-0.86 mm). Image enhancement technique was used to enhance difference between glacial and non-glacial area. Position of Kolahoi glacier snout was verified by the field investigations.

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3.2.5. Digitization

Digitization is an art/technique using specific software to delineate the spatial extent of a feature under investigation. The spatial extent of the glacier was delineated on the two satellite images and one Toposheet and then digitized in ArcView GIS. An attribute database was generated for each layer.

The digitization was done by selecting new area followed by new vector layer, whereby, the polygon tool was selected with confirming the area geo- referenced. The digitization was started by employing the polygon tool.

3.2.6. Change Detection

Remote sensing techniques offer efficient benefits in the field of change detection. One of the major advantages of the remote sensing systems is their capability for repetitive coverage which is necessary for change detection studies at global and regional scale. Detection of changes involves use of at least two period data sets (Jensen, 1986). The changes due to natural and human activities can be observed using current and archived remotely sensed data. With the availability of multi sensor satellite data at a very high spatial, spectral and temporal resolutions, it is now possible to prepare up to date and accurate change database in least possible time , at low cost and with better accuracy. The map prepared from satellite image for the year 1992 was superimposed on the base map prepared from the SOI Toposheet in a GIS environment and the third layer was created by identifying the changed area. In the same manure, the map prepared from satellite image for the year 2005 was superimposed on the map prepared from the satellite image for the year 1992 in a GIS environment and the third layer was created by identifying the further changed area. The findings are presented in the form of change detection maps. The digitized extent of the glaciers on the multi-date images were compared, analyzed and the change in the spatial extent of the Glaciers is represented in the form of maps and tables.

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3.2.7. Analysis of the Metrological Data

Mean monthly and mean Annual maximum and minimum temperature in degree Celsius (C), mean monthly and total precipitation in millimeters (mm) and mean monthly and mean annual relative humidity in percents (%) were calculated from the year 1980 to 2009 based on the data acquired from IMD, Srinagar. Meteorological data obtained from India Meteorological Department, Srinagar has been used to determine the change in climatic conditions. With this aim, data has been used for trend analysis so that it would be detected if the trend is coherent with glacier change.

3.2.8. Analysis of the Discharge Data:

With ongoing accelerated warming and glacier retreat, additional fresh water is expected to be released from glacier storage thus modifying the current river runoff of the Liddar river, which is a glacier-fed river. Therefore, in this section, glacier runoff is simulated over a period of 39 years (1970 – 2009), and possible effect of glacier runoff on river runoff in the Liddar valley basin is then analyzed. The discharge from the Kolahoi glacier was observed at the Aru- Liddar Head. The resultant data have been presented in the form of charts in order to analyze the pulsations in the climatic variables.

3.2.9. Field Study and Ground Truthing

Extensive ground truthing was carried to observe the different positions of the glacier snout. In the present study, the snout position in four different time periods was analyzed which clearly shows a fast retreat of the Kolahoi glacier. These four time periods were: 1. Snout (1909)-E.F. Neve, 2. Snout (1961)-N.E. Odell, 3. Snout (2007)-Author, and 4.Snout (2011)-Author. The glacier was covered by a large amount of debris (black basalt dust) on its surface which reduces the albedo and helps in fast melting of the glacier. The main snout of the glacier has developed numerous caves which act as an indicator of its fast recession. A huge amount of breaking ice was found at the

31 Chapter – 3 Materials and Methods accumulation portion of the glacier. On the surface of the glacier, large amount of sediments are now being exposed by the fast retreat of the glacier. The Kolahoi Gunz area was devoid of ice. Fresh ground and lateral moraines are found at the Kolahoi Gunz area. The snout of the Kolahoi Glacier has narrowed and moved away from lateral moraines leaving behind end and lateral moraines; the earlier extent of the glacier can be estimated from them. The fresh, lateral moraines on the either side of the glacial trough near Kolahoi Gunj act as strong indicators of the past width and length of the glacier. The crevasses developed in the ablation portion of the Kolahoi glacier testify the fast retreat of the glacier.

32 Chapter – 4 Study Area

4.1. INTRODUCTION

The present study deals with the Impact of Glaciers on the Hydrology of Kashmir Rivers-A case study of the Kolahoi Glacier. Kolahoi glacier lies in the Liddar (also spelled as Lidder in the early Toposheets of the Survey of India) valley of the Kashmir Himalaya. The Kashmir Himalaya forms the westernmost extremity of the main Himalayan range. The Liddar valley occupies the southern part of the giant Kashmir Himalayan synclinorium and forms part of the middle Himalaya.

4.2. LOCATION

The Liddar catchment occupies the south eastern part of the Kashmir valley and is situated between 33º 45′ 01″ N - 34º 15′ 35″ N and 75º 06′ 00″ E – 75º 32′ 29″ E (Map 1). The Liddar valley forms part of the middle Himalayas and lies between the Pir Panjal range in the south and south-east, the north Kashmir range in the north-east and Zanskar range in the southwest. The satellite view of the study area is depicted in the Map 2. The Liddar valley has been carved out by river Liddar, a right bank tributary of river Jhelum. It has a catchment area of 1159.38 km2, which constitute about 10 per cent of the total catchment area of river Jhelum (Bhat et al., 2007). The Liddar joins the Jhelum (upper stream of Indus river) at Gur village after travelling a course of 70 kms (Raza et al., 1978).

The Liddar valley gives rise to a huge beautiful valley only next to the Sind valley. Adjacent to the basin lie the basins of Arpat Kol on the south, Sind on the north and Harwan and Arpat basins on the North West. The relief of the basin is diverse comprising of high mountains, steep slopes, alpine meadows (margs) and fluvial fans. The high mountain ranges of middle Himalayas form a drainage divide, separating Liddar basin from the other adjacent basins. The range contains peaks as high as 4889 meters. On the east, the mountain ranges are even higher with peaks above Sheshnag Lake going on as high as 5200 meters. The slopes facing the basin are covered with thick forests.

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74o00’ 75o30’ 75o06’ 75o32’

34o30’ 34o30’ 34o15’ 34o15’

33o30’ 33o30’

74o00’ 75o30’

(KASHMIR VALLEY) 33o45’ 33o45’

75o06’ 75o32’

(LIDDAR VALLEY)

75O16’ 75O23’

34O12’ 34O12’

34O07’ 34O07’

75O16’ 75O23’

(KOLAHOI GLACIER)

Map 1. Location Map of the Study Area

Source: Generated from the SOI Toposheet, 1963 and ETM, 1992

34 Chapter – 4 Study Area

Kolahoi Glacier

Map 2. Satellite View of the Study Area

Source: LANDSAT – 7 (ETM), 2001

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4.3. PHYSIOGRAPHY

The area gradually rises in elevation from south (1600 metres) to north (5400 metres) (Map 3). The Liddar valley is gridled on three sides by lofty ridges, the Saribal-Katsal ridge (4800 metres) on the east, the Wokhbal (4200 metres) on the west and Basmai-Kazimpathlin bal (4800 metres) in the north. The interior of the northern part of the Liddar valley has a concentration of high mountain ridges like Dadwar (3560 metres), Goucher (4000 metres) and Tramakzan (4200 metres), which run parallel to the course of the rivers.

The Liddar valley begins from the base of the two snow fields; the Kolahoi and Sheshnag. From here its two main upper streams; the West and the East Liddar originate and join near the famous tourist town of Pahalgam. Below Pahalgam the Liddar passes through a narrow valley and ultimately debouches on to the wide alluvial fan near Aishmaqam. The Liddar meanders and forms a braided valley in the plains (Map 3). The Liddar valley reveals a variegated topography due to the combined action of glaciers and rivers. At present the glacial activity is mostly confined near the snouts of the Kolahoi and Shishram where active glaciers are located. The glaciated section of the valley contains many erosional and depositional features. The remnants of these features extend parallel to the Liddar river. In the south, Liddar valley terraces are predominantly developed in some sections.

Most of the basin is occupied by the high mountain ranges of Middle Himalayas. However, streams have carved out small elongated valleys which break the monotony of the high mountainous terrain. The Kolahoi range is in the north of the basin. The ranges contain peaks as high as 4889 metres and many slopes of the range are covered with glaciers which supply water to a number of streams of the catchment. On the east, the mountain ranges are even higher with peaks above the Sheshnag Lake going as high as 5200 metres. The western and north- western ranges are comparatively less in elevation with the

36 Chapter – 4 Study Area highest peaks not much above 4100 metres in the vicinity of Tar Sar Lake. The digital elevation model of the Liddar valley is depicted in the Map 3. The slopes facing the basin are covered with thick forests. The small stretch of plain area at the South-west of the basin stands out in contrast to the high lofty mountainous region. The plain area is in fact, an alluvium fan. It owes its origin to the alluvium deposited by the many distributaries of Liddar river before their confluence with river Jehlum.

37 Chapter – 4 Study Area

Source ETM 2001

Map 3. 40 Meter DEM of the Liddar Valley

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4.4. GEOLOGY

The geological setting has three components: lithology, stratigraphy and structure. The lithological formations of the study area range from Carboniferous to Triassic with Recent formation near the rivers and the glaciers of the Liddar Valley. The oldest formation stretches along the left bank of the southern part of the Liddar Valley. The pioneer work on the geology of the area was contributed by Middlemiss in 1910. Since then many geologists have investigated the rocks of the present area and made revisions in respect of lithostratigraphy and nomenclature in Middlemiss classification.

The following sequence of stratigraphy has been identified:-

Shale-Slate-Greywacke Group

This group contains comparatively less resistant rocks deposited during Lower Silurian and Cambrian (Sastri, 1961). Gupta (1971), on the basis of the fossils, placed it in Cambro-Silurian. This is the oldest formation of the region. The most common rock group is Greywacke. The Shale-Slate-Greywacke Group is overlain by pale, pink or grayish colored quartzite near the localities of Hapatnar, Shumahal and Raitang (Map 4).

Orthoquartzite-Carbonate Group

The Shale-Greywacke Group is overlain by the thick pile of quartzite and sandstone of various types intercalated with limestone beds. The exposures are observed in the localities of Nagbal, Driyan and easternmost parts of Kanjit, Gurdeman, Aishmukam and Kolahoi-Basmai anticline (Map 4). This group has two horizons, one comprising of Muth Quartzite and other of Syringothyris Limestone.

Outer Volcanic Group

The Orthoquartzite-Corbonate Group is conformably overlain by a set of rocks having complex petrological characters. They are pyroclastic in nature

39 Chapter – 4 Study Area and are named as Agglomeratic Slates. The rocks show a northwest-southeast strike trend. They dip 30º to 40º towards northeast (Kaul, 1990). The Agglomeratic Slate forms the lower part of the Panjal Volcanics. Underlying these is located Fenestella shale. They have considerable thickness of 610 meters and are composed of black sandy shale.

Classic Volcanic Group (Panjal Volcanics)

Agglomeratic Slate is overlain by a thick homogenous mass of lava, known as Panjal Volcanics. The rocks are green in color and cover the major portion of the northern part of the Liddar Valley. The rocks of this group are compact, thickly bedded and massive in nature. They are very hard and moderately to highly jointed. The Panjal Volcanics cover the high mountain ridges of the valley walls of the East and West Liddar Valley. The Panjal Volcanics form the towering cliffs of the study area.

Sandstone Shale Group

The volcanic group is conformably overlain by the complex set of rocks being composed of sandstone, siliceous limestone and shales. The sandstone and limestone are massive and tough while shales are soft and highly cleaved. The chief formations of this group are Bruzalpathr series and Zewan Series. Bruzalpathr Series contains siliceous and carbonaceous shales, black and grey sandstone and few limestone beds (Ghosh, 1973). The beds are of Lower Triassic in age and are called Zewan Series (Srikanta, 1983). The beds have been named after the village Zewan where they were first observed.

Limestone Group

The next succeeding group overlying the Zewan Formation in the northern part of the Liddar Valley is Limestone Group. It comprises of massive limestone, thinly bedded limestone and grayish shales, slates and thin limestones. These beds have been dated to Lower, Middle and Upper Triassic in age (Ghosh, 1973).

40 Chapter – 4 Study Area

Glacial and Fluvial Alluvium Group

These deposits occur in the form of older and newer alluvium. The older alluvium is deposited in the form of moraines, eskers, kames, and scree. The older alluvium overlies the older rock groups from the Sheshnag to Ganeshbal and Kolahoi to Pahalgam along the valley sections of the East and West Liddar respectively. They are Recent (Late Pleistocene) in age. The recent alluvium brought by the East and West Liddar has been deposited along the river beds and banks in the form of silt, boulders and pebbles.

Major Structures of the area

The major structures of the area are synclines and anticlines. The syncline axis passes near Pahalgam whereas the corresponding anticlines are in the north and south of Pahalgam (Map 4).

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Geological Structure of the Study Area

Map 4. Geological Map of the Liddar Valley (Source: Kaul-1990)

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4.5. CLIMATE

The Liddar valley has distinct climatic characteristics. This is related to its location at higher altitude and its setting which is enclosed on all sides by mountain ranges. The study area has sub-Mediterranean type of climate with nearly 80 % of its annual rainfall concentrated in winter and spring months (Meher-Homji, 1971). The study area has CZW moisture regime (Thornthwaite) and the climate type designated as B’1 with thermal efficiency index of 55 per cent (Reza, M. et al., 1978).

Winter Season

The winter season is long, commences from October and terminates in May. It receives heavy precipitation caused by the western disturbance (the Western depression). The normal daily maximum temperature ranges between 2ºC and 20ºC during November to May. The daily minimum temperature fluctuates between -13.20c and +10c. The temperature distribution in the higher altitudes shows characteristic altitudinal gradient. The variability of the month mean maximum of the altitudinal gradient is large.

The winter precipitation during November to March is mostly received in the form of snowfall. The pattern of snowfall varies with the altitude. It ranges between 1 to 4 meters from Pahalgam (2200 mrts. asl) to Kolahoi- Shishram areas (3800 mtrs. asl) respectively (Kaul, 1990). The winter months experience the larger precipitation. Chandanwari, Aru, Phraslun receives 820, 730, 580 mm of the rainfall from November to May respectively.

The summer season commences from June and terminates in the October. The temperature curve shows that the mean monthly maximum ranges between 16.5ºC and 30ºC. The period from June to September records the highest temperature range between 26ºC to 30ºC at Pahalgam and 21.2ºC to 25.6ºC at Chandanwari (Kaul, 1990). The variability of monthly mean maximum temperature of altitudinal gradient ranges between 1ºC and 3.5ºC per

43 Chapter – 4 Study Area

100 meters. It is maximum during August to October and minimum during June and July (Kaul, 1990).

The summer and the winter rainfall variation with altitude are similar. It is the highest (194 mm) at the higher altitudes of Chandanwari and the lowest (142 mm) at the lower altitude of Pahalgam. The rainfall is local in nature and gets marginal benefit from the monsoonal winds because of the rain-shadow effect of the Pir Panjal range.

4.6. VEGETATION

The vegetation of the study area displays characteristic mixture of temperate and alpine flora. The phytogeographic composition of the plant communities is different at different elevation due to microclimate, biotic and other environmental conditions. The following vegetation zones have been identified by the botanists:

Lower Conifer Broad-leaved Zone

This zone extends up to the altitude of 2200 mtrs. In this zone Pinus griffithii and Cedrus deodara grow along with broad-leaved species like Acer caesium, Juglans regia and Salix species.

Upper Conifer Herbaceous Zone

The dominant arboreal vegetation of this zone includes Pinus wallichaina, Picea smithiana, Abies pindrow and several other evergreen species. This zone extends from Pahalgam (2200 mtrs asl) to Pishu Top (3000 mtrs. asl) and Liddarwat (3000 mtrs. asl)

White Brich Zone

The vegetation of this zone is observed from Zajipal to Sheshnag in the East and from Liddarwat to Satlanjan in the west Liddar. The dominant vegetation in this zone is Betula bhojpatra. It mainly occurs in the form of colonies. The prominent conifers are absent.

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Alpine Shrubs and Meadows Zone

This zone of vegetation is observed above 3500 meters altitude and is mainly localized near Sheshnag and Kolahoi valley head. The extreme cold climate (Arctic type) helps in the growth of bushy vegetation of Juniperus communis and Rhododendron anthopogon. This vegetation gradually merges with the vast alpine meadows which abound in Morina longifolia and Cardoon’s nastans grasses.

4.7. DRAINAGE

The Liddar or the ‘Yellow’ river is the first right bank tributary joining the river Jehlum at Sangam between Khanabal and Gur in the south Kashmir. The stream rises at the base of Kolahoi and Seshnag glaciers (Map. 5). It is formed by meeting of the two upper streams, the West (North West) and the East (North East) Liddar, at the famous south Kashmir health resort of Pahalgam. The West Liddar rises in the northern slopes of Kolahoi mountains and is joined by a stream (Liddarwatt) flowing from the Tarsar and Chandasar and runs down a distance of 30 km. before meeting the sister stream at Pahalgam (Map. 5). The East Liddar trickles from the snow on the southern slope of the Panjtarni mountains and flows into the Seshnag, which is connected by another small lake, called Zamti. Leaving the Seshnag, the stream flows in the westerly direction for a distance of 24 km before merging with Western branch (Map. 5).

After the junction of these torrents at Pahalgam, the river flows on a rapid and unnavigable stream in a southwesterly direction. The channel is narrow and studded with massive boulders, till it debouches into a wide alluvial fan near Aishmuqam where its load gets deposited and bifurcated into a number of channels. In its passage through the lower part of the valley, the river divides itself into a number of channels (Map. 5), which fan out to form a wide alluvial plain and merges with Jehlum at Gur contributing it a volume of

45 Chapter – 4 Study Area water slightly less than that of Jehlum itself. In altitude, the Liddar falls from 2129 metres at Pahalgam to 1591 metres at Gur just in a distance of about 38 km. thus the fall is 14 metre in 1 km or 1 in 71. However, from the source of west Liddar to Gur, the fall is 49 metre in 1 km or 1 in 20 (Reza, et.al. 1978).

Melt water Streams

Melt water streams are present throughout the northern part of the Liddar valley from higher altitudes of 4000 metres almost to the Pahalgam basin at 2200 metres. There are nearly 50 meltwater streams, of which 20 have their origin in the present glaciers.

Distribution

The majority of the meltwater streams are located in the East Liddar valley. The melt water streams are tributaries to the main trunk streams of the east and the west Liddar rivers and flow in the northeast-southwest and northwest-southeast directions.

Origin

While observing the existing glaciers one finds water flowing everywhere within and beneath the ablation zone of the glacier. It is flowing either parallel or oblique to the glacier in response to basal ice pressure. The majority of the streams have subglacial drainage. It has been established that the northern part of the Liddar valley was not structurally controlled but was formed by the glacial and glacio-fluvial processes and quarternary tectonics.

Morphology

The morphology of the streams is highly variable. Near the troughheads of the glaciers, the streams tend to be flat-floored with steep sides and are wider than deep. In the middle section of the East and the west Liddar and streams are incised into deep gorges with depth ranging between 75 and 100 metres (Kaul, 1990).

46 Chapter – 4 Study Area

Drainage Map of the Study Area

Map 5. Drainage Map of the Liddar Catchment.

Source: SOI Toposheet, 1963

47 Chapter – 4 Study Area

4.8. SOCIO-CULTURAL FEATURES

Liddar river basin falls in the district Anantnag of the valley of Kashmir. The area of basin spread over three tehsils of Pahalgam, Anantnag and Bijbehara. The estimated population of the basin is 185,671 (compiled from primary census abstract, 2001) of which 92396 live in Pahalgam, 85932 peple live in Anantnag and Bijbehara tehsils and 7343 people live in forest block. Besides two urban towns (Pahalgam and Muttan) there are three major places of religious importance in the basin which attracts a large number of devotees. These are the Muslim shrine of Aishmuqam, the temple of Martand and the famous cave of Amaranth (though actually located outside the catchment area but most of the tracts leading to it falling within the catchment). These places receive a large number of pilgrims each year and influence the cultural life of people. Besides these, the tourist tour of Pahalgam is a centre of attraction to the visitors coming from different parts of the World and India. The majestic scenic beauty, numerous trekking routes, the fast moving Liddar and a number of attitude mountain lakes and margs are the main cause of attraction of the tourists.

Sex ratio and literacy rate are very important indicators of demographic structure of a town. Sex ratio which was 752 in 1961 has increased to 800 in 1971 and 802 in 1981. This increase could be the migration of males engaged in service sector, improved medical facilities and standards of life.

48 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

5.1. CHANGE DETECTION- 1963, 1992 AND 2005

With the acceleration of global warming in the 1980s, it has become more and more important to understand the ability of glaciers to provide water sources and the disasters related to glaciers and climate change. Thus, it is of great significance to obtaining the accurate information of glacier changes. Glaciers in the Kashmir valley are in the process of fast retreat due to increase in temperature, globally. Glacier advancement and recession are the most significant evidences of change in glacier geometry. Shifting of snout position of glacier as a response to climatic changes is the best indicator of glacier advancement and recession over a period of a few years or decades. The change in snout position varies for different glaciers and processes are rather irregular in amount, rate and time of occurrence. It is important to monitor the glaciers routinely to evaluate the changes that occurred in the ice mass, surface area and its geometry. In the Himalaya, there are only a few glaciers, which are being symmetrically monitored for snout recession. The earlier geometrical records of these glaciers are available only in the Survey of India toposheets. A comparison of an earlier map and a recent map gives the average changes that occurred in the glacier during the period. The fluctuation records of Himalayan glaciers are only 150 years old. Mayeswki and Jeschke (1979) studied 122 glaciers of the Himalaya and Karakoram regions and concluded that most of them are retreating. Many significant studies on the recession of the Himalayan glaciers have also been made. In the present study an attempt has been made to evaluate the changes in glacier snout position and surface area of Kolahoi glacier within three time periods, 1963, 1992 and 2005.

Kolahoi glacier (34°07' to 34°12'N latitude; & 75°16' to 75°23'E longitude), one of the largest glacier in the Kashmir valley is situated in the Liddar valley (Kashmir Himalayas). Liddar valley covers an area of 1159.38km2 and sustains about 48 glaciers with total ice covered area of about

49 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

39 km2 (Jeelani and Hasnain, 2010). The melt water feeds the west and east Liddar Rivers and downstream in the valley, they joined and forms river Jhelum which is the main source of water and live hood to entire Kashmir valley.

In order to study the total snout recession of Kolahoi glacier during the period of investigation, three sets of data were obtained: (i) comparison of snout position from different photographs of Kolahoi glacier via dated, 1909 (Plate 1), 1961 (Plate 2), 2007 (Plate 3) and 2011 (Plate 4) showed that the snout is retreating very fast; (ii) total recession between 1963 and 2005 was obtained as 2.88km2, with an average rate of 0.06km2/yr; (iii) field observation showed that the glacier has developed various crevasses in its ablation portion and forms numerous caves at its snout position which act as the important indicators of its recession. The study reveals that the snout of the glacier is continuously retreating and the annual rate increased slightly. The snout has narrowed and moved away from lateral low moraines by a similar distance leaving behind end and lateral moraines near the front. This increasing recession rate is probably attributed to the effect of global warming. The progressive recession of Kolahoi glacier snout indicates that it has undergone marked changes in shape and position.

The fluctuation records of the snouts of the investigated glacier are available for the past 100 years (A.D. 1857-1961). The records reveal that the Kolahoi glacier snout has retreated up by 800 metres during A.D. 1857 to 1909 and another 800 metres during A.D. 1912 to 1961 and by 292 metres from the snout position of 1961 to that of 1984 (Map 6) (Kaul,1990).

50 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

Map 6. Fluctuations in the Snout position of the Kolahoi Glacier (1857-1984) (Kaul-1990)

51 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

Plate 1. Snout of Kolahoi glacier in 1909.

Source: Neve, 1909.

Plate 2. Snout of Kolahoi glacier in 1961.

Source: N.E.Odell-1961

52 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

Plate 3. Snout of Kolahoi glacier in 2007

Source: Field observation

Plate 4. Snout of Kolahoi glacier in 2011

Source: Field observation.

53 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

During Pleistocene, Kolahoi glacier was fed by nine other glaciers and its basin covered about 650km². The present snow field feeding this glacier covers only 2.5km², and no other glacier joins it. In Pleistocene it extended for 35km to terminate near 2760m ASL and at present it terminates within 3km from its cirque at 3650m ASL (Ahmad and Rais, 1998). In Pleistocene, Kolahoi glacier came down its cirque facing north. About a kilometer from the snout, this glacier turn west, and finally it joined the East-Liddar glacier at Pehalgam, facing southeast. A large part of West Lidder valley is on Panjal Traps (Permo-carboniferous lava flow), which has hexagonal Joint pattern. Kolahoi valley also changes direction in confrontation with this joint pattern and it flows along the sides of the hexagon. It is very difficult to say whether the glacier has carved its own valley or it moved in an older valley.

The fluctuation records of the Kolahoi Glacier snout are available for the past 100 years (A. D 1857 to 1961). An analysis of the available records is presented in this study. It appears that considerable recession of the snout has taken place since 1857 (Table 1). The glacier has receded about 1.6km2 from 1857-1909 (52 years) and 0.82 km2 from 1912-1961 (50 years).

Table 1: Available records regarding the Change Detection of Kolahoi glacier.

Year Lag time Retreat(km2/year)

1857-1909 52 years 1.6

1912-1961 50 years 0.82

Source: Mayekwski and Jeschke, 1979.

In the present study, the change detection in the spatial extent of the Kolahoi glacier within three time periods, viz. 1963, 1992 and 2005 is detected.

54 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

The result clearly shows that the glacier is receding very fast in recent times and will disappear in future if the same trend of recession continues.

Glacier Area in 1963

The Kolahoi glacier was identified using topographic map of the Survey of India (1:50,000 scale, 43 N/8) surveyed in 1963. Glacier boundary was initially delineated manually and then the glacier area for the year 1963 was delineated and demarcated with the help of the techniques of Remote Sensing (Map 7). The total area of the Kolahoi glacier was 13.57 km2 in this year (Table 2).

Glacier Area in 1992

The glacier area for the year 1992 was calculated from Landsat ETM satellite image for the year 1992 (Map. 8). The total area of the Kolahoi glacier was 11.22 km2 in this year (Table 2).

Glacier Area in 2005

The glacier area for the year 2005 was calculated from IRS 1C LISS III satellite image for the year 2005 (Map. 9). The total area of the Kolahoi glacier was 10.69 km2 in this year (Table 2).

Net Change in the Kolahoi glacier

The present study reveals that Kolahoi glacier is receding very fast and is decreasing in its size. The spatial extent of the glacier has changed from 13.57 km2 in 1963 to 11.22 km2 in 1992, a net change of 2.35 km2 in 29 years (Map. 10). The glacier has further receded up to 10.69 km2 in 2005, showing a net change of 0.53 km2 in 13 years from 1992 (Map. 11). In nutshell, Kolahoi glacier has changed from 13.57 km2 in 1963 to 10.69 km2 in 2005, showing a net change of 2.88 km2 in 42 years with an average rate of change of 0.06 km2 per year (Table 3). The change detection map of the glacier within three time periods is shown in Map 12.

55 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

Table 2: Glacier Area (1963, 1992 & 2005)

Year Glacier area(km2)

1963 13.57

1992 11.22

2005 10.69

Source: Computed from SOI Toposheet 1963, Landsat ETM 1992 and IRS 1C LISS III 2005.

The above table clearly indicates that there is significant increase in the rate of glacier recession for last few decades (Fig. 2). The area of the Kolahoi glacier in the year 1963 was 13.57 km² which receded up to 11.22 km² in the year 1992. The glacier further receded up to 10.69 km2 in the year 2005 (Table 2).

The total change and retreat (Km2/year) in the spatial extent of the Kolahoi glacier in 42 years (1963 to 2005) is given in Table 3.

GLACIER AREA (Km2) 16 14 12 ) 2 10 M K ( 8 GLACIER A

E AREA R 6 A 4 2 0 1963 1992 2005 YEARS

Fig. 2: Showing Glacier Area (sq. km.) for the Years 1963, 1992 and 2005.

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Table 3: Total change & Retreat (km2/year):

Year Lag time Change (km2) Retreat (km2/year)

1963-1992 29 years 2.35 0.08

1992-2005 13 years 0.53 0.04

1963-2005 42 years 2.88 0.06

Source: Computed from SOI Toposheet 1963, Landsat ETM 1992 and IRS 1C LISS III 2005.

The above table clearly indicates that the glacier receded up to 2.35 km2 between 1963 and 1992, with an average rate of 0.08 km2 per year in a time period of 29 years. The glacier further receded up to 0.53 km2 between 1992 and 2005, with an average rate of 0.04 km2 per year in a time period of 13 years. In nutshell, it can be say that the glacier receded up to 2.88 km2 between 1963 and 2005, with an average rate of 0.06 km2 per year in a time period of 42 years. This means that glacier is receding very fast in recent times. In a time period of 29 years, glacier receded with an average rate of 0.08 km2/y between 1963 and 1992. In comparison to this rate, presently, glacier is receding at an average rate of 0.04km2/y in only 13years between 1992 and 2005, which is very alarming rate.

57 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

Glacier Area 1963

N

2 0 2 Kilometers

Map 7. Glacier Area in 1963 Source: Generated from SOI Toposheet, 1963

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Glacier Area 1992

N

2 0 2 Kilometers

Map 8. Glacier Area 1992 Source: Generated from Landsat ETM, 1992

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Glacier Area 2005

N

2 0 2 Kilometers

Map 9. Glacier Area 2005 Source: Generated from IRS 1C LISS III, 2005

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Change Detection- 1963 and 1992

N

Glacier(1992) Glacier(1963)

2 0 2 Kilometers

Map 10. Change Detection Map 1963 and 1992

Source: Generated from SOI Toposheet, 1963 and Landsat ETM 1992

61 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

Change Detection- 1992 and 2005

N

Glacier(2005) Glacier(1992)

2 0 2 Kilometers

Map 11. Change Detection Map 1992 and 2005

Source: Generated from Landsat ETM 1992 and IRS 1C LISS III 2005

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Change Detection- 1963, 1992 and 2005

N

Glacier(2005) Glacier(1992) Glacier(1963)

0.9 0 0.9 1.8 2.7 Kilometers

Map 12. Change Detection Map 1963, 1992 and 2005

Source: Generated from SOI Toposheet 1963, Landsat ETM 1992 and IRS 1C LISS III 2005

63 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

5.2. FACTORS RESPONSIBLE FOR GLACIER RECESSION

Glaciers are a valuable source of fresh water which sustain life and provide water for drinking, irrigation, hydro power generation, etc. Besides, these exert considerable influence on the climate of a region and fluctuate in dimension in response to the climatological changes and therefore, these are regarded as sensitive indicators of the climate of a region. Glaciers have receded substantially during the last century in response to the climatic warming; especially in the mountainous regions such as Himalayas. The present study reveals that there has been a considerable change in the spatial extent of Glacier under study from 1963 to 2005 (42 years). This drastic retreat of the said glacier can be attributed to the prevailing climatic variability in the Valley of Kashmir, as well as to the differential anthropogenic interference over their surface. During the last four decades of 20th century, mean maximum temperature has increased by 0.40C while as the mean minimum temperature has registered an increase of 0.10C. Increase in temperature is further complimented by decreasing precipitation. Glacial retreat is of outmost significance in the changing environmental scenario of Kashmir Valley as it can have adverse effects on the water resources, agriculture, hydel power generation and other sectors of the economy besides having its implications on the ecological set up of the region. The various anthropogenic factors which may be responsible for the recession of Kolahoi glacier are:

1. Tourism.

2. Pilgrimage (Amar Nath Yatra).

3. Local Population.

4. Deforestation.

5. Cement Plants. 6. Increasing activity of Gujjars and Bakarwalls near the glacier.

64 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

1. TOURISM

Tourism is the backbone of economy in the J & K state. Kashmir, for its natural beauty and grandeur is often referred as the “Paradise on Earth”. The Kashmir as a tourist region offers the maximum opportunities of entertainment, enjoyment, adventure & travel. The main features of Kashmir tourism are: Climate, Scenery, Sports, Adventure, Pilgrimage, Research, Handicrafts, Fishing, etc.

Negative impacts from tourism occur when the level of visitor use is greater than the environment’s ability to cope with this use within the accessible limits of change. Uncontrolled conventional tourism poses potential threats to many natural areas around the world. It can put enormous pressure on an area and lead to impacts such as soil erosion, increased pollution, natural habitat loss, etc. which in turn affects the snow cover of the surrounding areas. Pahalgam is a tourist’s pride. Its charm and granduear delights the eyes, the cool breeze and the widening sounds in the pine forests close to the site, mesmerize the tourists. At present, Pahalgam is not only a tourist resort of exceptional beauty but it has also highest attitude Golf course providing every delight to golf lovers besides it possess rich flora and fauna. Thus invites tourists of varied character to Pahalgam from all over the world. Its accessibility, unpoiled wilderness and beautiful nature offer immense potentials for its development as a tourist resort of international importance. Pony riding is the main attraction here. Tourist fishing in Liddar River is a popular sport. Pahalgam is the ultimate destination for trekking. The trekking season extends from mid may to mid October.

Pahalgam attracts local, domestic as well as international tourists. The total flow of tourist over the last 40 years has picked up remarkably. It has increased from 26268 in 1965 to 3.40lakh in 1980 and 7.0 lakh in 1988 (Fig. 3). However, in view of turmoil in Kashmir valley, tourist flow has come to a complete Holt since 1990 to 1995. With the intervention of Government,

65 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion effects are on to revive the tourist industry in the valley as a result tourist flow has picked up almost in all the tourist resorts of Kashmir including Pahalgam.

Table 4: Tourist arrival to Pahalgam from 1997 to 2008 (lakhs)

Year Domestic Foreigners Local Total

1997 3640 291 5396 12027

1998 8340 365 6396 15101

1999 58162 673 36322 85157

2000 58775 379 31376 90830

2001 49744 650 29205 77590

2002 11468 378 27533 39379

2003 60249 1301 375263 436813

2004 158549 3715 251513 413677

2005 273112 3899 440099 725781

2006 131422 902975 444604 702169

Source: Directorate of Tourism, J&K.

The total number of domestic tourists increases from 3640 in 1997 to 131422 in 2006. Same trend of increase was found in the total number of foreigners whose number increases from 291 in 1997 to 902975 in 2006. In the same way, total number of local tourists increases from 5396 in 1997 to 444604 in 2006 (Table 4; Fig. 4). The overall total number of tourists increases from 12027 in 1997 to 702169 in 2006 (Table 4; Fig. 3).

66 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

Since Pahalgam is a favorite site for a number of tourists including, domestic, national and foreigners. Their number is increasing day by day. Tourist activities may be going to higher levels in coming years. If the same increasing trend of tourisim continues in Pahalgam, it will create damage to the ecosystem and the environment of Pahalgam which ultimately affects the surrounding glaciers. There are a number of estimates which clearly indicates that the tourism in Pahalgam will take an upward trend in coming years (Table 5; Fig. 5). Estimate is based on the following assumptions:

1. Complete normalcy will be restored in valley.

2. 70-80% of tourists visiting Kashmir from outside the state would visit Pahalgam.

3. The number of weekend tourists going to increase to Pahalgam in years to come.

Table 5: Tourist Estimate-Pahalgam 2025.

S .No. Year Number ( lakhs)

1 1988 5.05

2 2005 7.75

3 2010 8.95

4 2025 12.80

Source: Directorate Tourism, J&K.

The above table clearly indicates that the inflow of tourists into Pahalgam was 5.05 lakhs in 1988. This number increases to 8.95 in 2010 and will further increases upto about 12.80 lakhs in 2025, if the above mentioned conditions prevail in the valley.

67 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

TOTAL TOURIST FLOW TO PAHALGAM (Lakhs)

800000 700000 W

O 600000 L F

T 500000 S I

R TOTAL

U 400000

O TOURISTS T 300000 L A

T 200000 O T 100000 0 1965 1980 1988 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 YEARS Fig. 3: Total Tourist Flow to Pahalgam (lakhs)

TOURIST ARRIVAL TO PAHALGAM 1000000 900000 ) h

k 800000 a L

( DOMESTIC

700000 L

A 600000 V

I FOREIGNERS

R 500000 R A 400000 LOCALS T S I

R 300000 U

O 200000 T 100000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 YEARS Fig. 4: Tourist Arrival to Pahalgam (lakhs)

TOURIST ESTIMATION 14 12 )

H 10 K A L

( 8 R E

B 6 NUMBER M

U 4 (Lakhs) N 2 0 1988 2005 2010 2025 YEARS Fig. 5: Tourist Estimation-Pahalgam 2025

68 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

2. AMAR NATH JI YATRA

As we all know that Pahalgam is associated with the Holy Cave of Amaranth. Chandanwari, 16km from Pahalgam, serves as the starting point of the Amaranth Yatra. The Yatra is organized every year in Hindu month of Sawan (July-August). As we know the Pahalgam Development Authority is maintaining Shri Amaranth Ji Yatra from Chandanwari to Holy cave every year. The Authority is also providing sanitation facilities at various camping site routes. Besides it maintain, repair, and construct various structures such as lavatories, garbage pits, etc, from Chandanwari to Holy cave. These structures, in turn, are responsible for the environmental degradation of Pahalgam, which ultimately becomes a serious cause for glacier melting in the region.

The number of Yatries is increasing year by year. In can be understand from the below mentioned table which clearly shows an increase in their number from 1960-61 to 2008 with a few exceptions. The number of yatries approaching towards the Pahalgam is increasing from 0.04 lakhs in 1960-61 to 0.60 lakhs in 1995(Table 6; Fig. 6). It indicates an increase of 0.56 lakhs in only 35 years. The number further increases from 1.20 lakhs in 1996 to 4.54 lakhs in 2006 (Table 6; Fig. 6). This indicates an increase of 3.34 lakhs in only 10 years.

69 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

Table 6: YATRIES COMING TO AMARNATH JI (LAKH)

YEAR NO. OF YATRIES YEAR NO. OF YATRIES 1960-61 0.04 1994 0.37 1965 0.07 1995 0.60 1967 0.08 1996 1.20 1974 0.07 1997 0.79 1977 0.12 1998 1.50 1978 0.14 1999 1.14 1980 0.20 2000 1.73 1981 0.20 2003 1.48 1985 0.42 2004 1.72 1989 0.95 2005 1.56 1990 0.05 2006 4.54 1992 0.16

Source: Director, Tourism, J&K.

Yatries Coming to Amar Nath Ji (In Lakhs) Number of Yatries Coming to Amarnath Ji (Lakhs) 5 4.5 4 )

S 3.5 H K 3 A L (

R 2.5 E B 2 YATRIES M U

N 1.5 1 0.5 0 0 5 7 4 7 8 0 1 5 9 0 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 YEARS

Fig. 6: A Line Graph Showing Number of Yatries coming to Amaranth ji (lakhs)

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3. LOCAL POPULATION

The number of people i.e., men, women & children inhabiting a particular area, constitute its human population. To most of the people, growth of human population at alarming rate at least in the present century is the most significant cause of the lowering of environmental quality and ecological balance. Pahalgam tourist resort is an agglomeration of a number of scattered with a population of 1920 persons in 1961. It has increased to 2335 persons in 1971 and 2626 in 1981, recording a growth rate of 21.61% during 1961-1971 and 12.46% in 1981 and 5922 in 2001 (Table 7; Fig. 7). In lieu of this, anticipated population of Pahalgam town has been estimated by Arithmetic Mean Method and growth is expected to continue to 20% per decade because of the rural and agrarian nature of the village settlements. In addition to population of the township, 730 persons in 2001 as service population has been recorded during peak tourist season which is estimated to increase to 3500 in 2025. Consequent to this increase in population, the township which was confined within Pahalgam bowl with an area of 7.64km2 in 1961 has recorded significant physical sprawl in 2001.

Table 7: Population Growth- Pahalgam Township

S.No. Year Persons Growth rate Commuting Population

1 1961 1920 - 58

2 1971 2335 21.61 200

3 1981 2626 12.46 400

4 2001 5922 - 730 Source: Census of India, 1981, J& K Town Directory- series -8. Master Plan Pahalgam, 1981-2001; Notified Area Committee, Pahalgam.

Apart from the above discussion, it is estimated that the population of Pahalgam will be increased in recent time. It is expected that the population

71 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion which was 2626 persons in 1981 rises to about 8527 persons in 2021 (Table 8; Fig. 8). It means that there will be an increase of 5901 persons in 40 years. The population is further expected to increase from 8527 persons in 2021 to 9379 persons in 2025 (Table 8; Fig. 8). This means that there will be an increase of 852 persons in only 4 years.

Table 8: Estimate population of Pahalgam-2025

S .No. Year Population 1 1981 2626 2 2001 5922 3 2005 6514 4 2011 7106 5 2021 8527 6 2025 9379 Source: Census of India-2001 Master plan Pahalgam- 1981 – 2001. It is obvious that overpopulation is the root cause of environmental degradation and ecological imbalance in Pahalgam. With the increase in the population of the Pahalgam, more areas have been brought under cultivation by clearing forest which resulted in the deterioration of environment and ultimately affects the surrounding snow cover and glaciers. With the increase in the population, people of Pahalgam allowed overgrazing by their herds which has destructed the natural pastures. Earlier the influence of human activity on water resources was limited but with the increase in population water has been influenced both in terms of quality and quantity.

In Liddar catchment, the total population increases from 69299 in 1961 to 85024 in 1971. It further increases from 106334 in 1981 to 177361 in 2001. In the same way, the density of population increases from 59.77 persons/km2 in 1981 to 73.33 persons/km2 in 1971. It further increases from 91.72 persons/km2 in 1981 to 152.96 persons/km2 in 2001.

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POPULATION OF PAHALGAM 7000

6000 ) s

n 5000 o s r e P

( 4000

N O I

T 3000 PERSONS A L U P

O 2000 P

1000

0 1961 1971 1981 2001 YEARS

Fig. 7: Population of Pahalgam

ESTIMATED POPULATION 10000 9000 8000 7000 N O

I 6000 T A

L 5000 U P 4000 POPULATION O P 3000 2000 1000 0 1981 2001 2005 2011 2021 2025 YEARS

Fig. 8: Estimated Population of Pahalgam-2025

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4. DEFORESTATION

Forests are one of the important natural resources available to mankind. They influence the climate and reduce the extremes of temperature. They conserve soil and regulate moisture on the earth’s surface. They are helpful in maintaining the ecological balance and keep the atmosphere of the earth neat and clean. The main role of the forests is that they help in increasing precipitation which is the main source for glacier formation. They are natural sink of carbon dioxide. Forest Survey of India (FSI) 1987-1997, shows a comparative change in dense forest cover in the Jammu and Kashmir Himalayas’ as there was 12,970km2 area under dense forest cover in 1987. In 1997 there was 11,020km2 area under dense forest cover which shows that annual growth rate of dense forest cover in Jammu and Kashmir is -1.51% which ultimately leads to decrease in precipitation and finally it affects the surrounding environment and hence the growth of glaciers in the valley. Deforestation also leads to many serious problems. One of the serious problems of it is the slope failure which ultimately affects the stability of glaciers.

5. CEMENT PLANTS

Emission of green house gases is the biggest threat to ecology and environment of the valley. Many of the areas have seen in complete disappearance of small glaciers. In other areas, the thickness of the glaciers has reduced to over one-fourth of the original thickness. Hundreds of the springs spread all over the valley have dried up or are in the process of drying up. The quantity of snowfall has been clearly reduced over the last few decades. Cement –making plants in the Kashmir valley are producing heat trapping gases that could lead to no snow in the plains over the next two decades. The maximum of the cement plants are concentrated in the south Kashmir. Liddar valley is situated in the district of Anantnag, which itself is located in the south Kashmir. As maximum cement plants are concentrated in south Kashmir they affects the surrounding snow cover very badly.

74 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

In 1982, a large cement factory has been set up at Khrew, known as the J&K Cements Limited, Khrew. There are 500 workers employed in this factory producing about 600 tonns of cement a day. The dust from this factory affects the valley glaciers in general and surrounding glaciers in particular. The dust laden winds from this area ultimately affect the glaciers in the Liddar valley.

More than 300 military convoys producing high level green house gases move everyday across the valley. The effluents of the vehicles go in a long way to disturb the atmosphere of the valley and ultimately the glacier cover of the valley.

6. INCREASING ACTIVITY OF GUJJARS & BAKERWALLS NEAR THE GLACIER

The activity of Gujjars and Bakarwalls near the Kolahoi glacier is increasing day by day, hence have an impact on the glacier, as this area is devoid of any facility like garbage dumps, lavatories, etc. for their survival. Kolahoi glacier is thus receding at a very fast rate.

5.3. GLACIER FEATURES AS THE INDICATORS OF GLACIER RECESSION

The advance movement of glacier creates some erosional and depositional features which remain stagnant and act as evidences for the glacial recession. The geomorphologic features of glaciers which act as indicators for its retreat or recession are glacial grooves, cirques, moraines, crevasses, eskers, outwash plains etc. Breaking of glacial ice at several places testifies to the large production of glacial melt water which is an outcome of its fast retreat (Plate 5 and Plate 6). The snout of the Kolahoi Glacier has narrowed and moved away from lateral moraines leaving behind end and lateral moraines; the earlier extent of the glacier can be estimated from them. The fresh, lateral moraines on the either side of the glacial trough near Kolahoi Gunj act as strong indicators of the past width and length of the glacier. The crevasses developed in the

75 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion ablation portion of the Kolahoi glacier testify the fast retreat of the glacier (Plate 7 and Plate 8). The main snout of the glacier has developed numerous caves which act as an indicator of fast recession (Plate 9 and Plate 10). The distinctive location of end moraines at the three altitudinal sites of the west Liddar valley provides an evidence of three distinctive phases of deposition.

Clean glaciers develop higher albedo as compared to dirty glaciers. High albedo glaciers possess less melting as solar radiations reflected back from their shiny surface. In comparison to this, low albedo glaciers possess more melting as the dust on its surface absorb the solar radiation and increases its temperature. Extreme melt water rates are caused by maximum heat fluxes to the glacier surface. In 2007, the Kolahoi glacier was a clean glacier as there was less amount of debris present on its surface (Plate 11) which causes its less melting. On the other hand, in 2011, the glacier was a dirty glacier as there was a huge amount of debris (black basalt) present on its surface (Plate 12) which helps in its fast retreat in recent times.

76 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

Plate 5: Ice Breaking at the Accumulation zone of Kolahoi glacier (2007)

Plate 6: Ice Breaking at the Accumulation zone of Kolahoi glacier (2011)

77 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

Plate 7. Crevasses Developed at Kolahoi glacier (2007)

Plate 8. Crevasses Developed at Kolahoi glacier (2011)

78 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

Plate 9. Caves Present at the Snout of Kolahoi glacier (2007)

Plate 10: Caves Present at the Snout of Kolahoi glacier (2011)

79 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

Plate 11. Amount of Debris Present on the Glacier Surface-2007

Plate 12 Amount of Debris Present on the Glacier Surface-2011

80 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

5.4. IMPACT OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ON THE KOLAHOI GLACIER

Climatic change and its impacts on the fluctuation of glaciers are a natural phenomenon that has been occurring in the Earth’s five billion-year-old history. In the past few decades, global climate change has had a significant impact on the high mountain environment: snow, glaciers and permafrost are especially sensitive to changes in atmospheric conditions because of their proximity to melting conditions. In fact, changes in ice occurrences and corresponding impacts on physical high-mountain systems could be among the most directly visible signals of global warming. This is also one of the primary reasons why glacier observations have been used for climate system monitoring for many years (Haeberli 1990; Wood 1990). Glaciers, which are usually located in inaccessible and inhospitable environments, play an important role in regional and global climate change. Especially mountain glaciers are sensitive to the changes in climate because of their relatively small size and surface temperature which is near to melting/freezing point. Himalayan glaciers are situated in the Tropical climate belt and they are spread between 36° N and 27° N. This mountain belt is near Tropic of Cancer and receives more heat than by Arctic and temperate climatic mountain belts. Therefore, Himalayan glaciers are more sensitive to climate change than other mountain glaciers in the world (Hastenrath, 1995; Thompson et al., 1995; Kaser, 1995; Wagnon, et al., 1999; Hasnain, 1999). Climate change is the most challenging environmental crisis in the present 21st century world. Human activities like excessive use of fossil fuels and land use change (deforestation and forest degradation) are fueling the global warming process. Glaciers are sensitive to the climate change and several studies have shown that the worldwide glacier cover has declined significantly as a result of increasing temperature.

81 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

Glaciers are a valuable source of fresh water which sustain life and provide water for drinking, irrigation, hydro power generation, etc. Besides, these exert considerable influence on the climate of a region and fluctuate in dimension in response to the climatological changes and therefore, these are regarded as sensitive indicators of the climate of a region. Glaciers have receded substantially during the last century in response to the climatic warming; especially in the mountainous regions such as Himalayas. The differences in the global mean temperature between the last glacial maximum and present warm period is about 5°C. However, this slow rate of climate change probably changed in the 20th century due to rapid industrialization.

Large emissions of CO2, other trace gases and aerosols have changed the composition of the atmosphere (Seiler & Hahn, 2001). This has affected the radiation budget of the earth-atmosphere system. Investigations carried out by intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC, 2001) have concluded that the earth’s average temperature has increased by 0.6±0.20C in 20th century. In addition, climate modeling suggests that increasing human -made green house gases and aerosols have led to absorb 0.85± 0.15 watt/m2 more energy by earth than emitting to space. This means additional global warming of about 0.6oC in 21st century without further change in atmospheric composition (Hanses, et al., 2005). In addition, numerous scenarios of climate change suggest that an average surface temperature of the earth can rise by 1.4 to 5.80C by the end of the 21st century (IPCC, 2001). This projected rate of warming is much higher than the observed changes during 20th century (IPCC, 2001). Obviously this will have a profound impact on snow accumulation and ablation rate in the Himalaya, as snow and glaciers are sensitive to global climate change. Investigations carried out in the Himalayas suggest that almost all glaciers are retreating and annual rate of retreat is varying from 16 to 35 m (Dobhal, et al., 2004; Oberoi, et al., 2001).

82 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

With the acceleration of global warming in the 1980s, it has become more and more important to understand the ability of glaciers to provide water sources and the disasters related to glaciers and climate change (Mennis & Fountain, 2001). Glaciers in the Kashmir valley are in the process of fast retreat due to increase in temperature, globally. This drastic retreat of the valley glaciers can be attributed to the prevailing climatic variability in the Valley of Kashmir. Owing to its topography, the shielded valley of Kashmir though an exception to the surrounding regions in terms of its climate is however following the same trend in climatic variables that prevails over the rest of the globe. During the last four decades of 20th century, mean maximum temperature has increased by 0.4oC while as the mean minimum temperature has registered an increase of 0.1oC. The temperature conditions in valley are marking an upward trend while as rainfall is declining not just in total amount but in terms of amount per day as well. A negative correlation was established between the temperatures and precipitation. Increase in temperature conditions was facilitated by a corresponding declining trend in precipitation. Glacial retreat is of outmost significance in the changing environmental scenario of Kashmir Valley as it can have adverse effects on the water resources, agriculture, hydel power generation and other sectors of the economy besides having its implications on the ecological set up of the region.

As all the Kashmir Himalayan glaciers are in a state of fast retreat. The same process of retreat is found in the valley’s largest glacier, Kolahoi (Liddar valley). Thus, it is of great significance to obtain the accurate information of changes in Kolahoi glacier. Kolahoi glacier is receding very fast due to changes that have been taking place in the climate of the Kashmir valley in general and Liddar valley in particular. In this backdrop, an attempt has been made to quantify the impact of climatic variability on the spatial extent of Kolahoi glacier. The study reveals that that there has been a considerable change in the spatial extent of the glacier under study from 1963 to 2005. In 1963, the area

83 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion of the Kolahoi glacier was 13.57 km2, which receded up to 11.22km2 in 1992, showing a net change of 2.35km2 in 29 years with an average retreating rate of 0.08 km2 per year. Further glacier has receded up to 0.53km2 in a very short span of time of 13 years between 1992 & 2005, with an average retreating rate of 0.04 km2, which is very alarming. These changes in the glacier are due to the increase in surrounding temperature. The analysis of climatic factors of the study area shows the recession is coherent with the warming trend. It can be said that, increasing trend of both minimum and maximum temperatures (Table 9 and 10; Fig. 10 and Fig. 12) are responsible for areal decrease with the effect of melting. Furthermore the precipitation values over years have shown a declining trend (Table 11; Fig. 14.). This may be because of the decline in the relative humidity in the study area (Table 12; Fig. 16). The alarming increase in mean maximum temperature in Liddar valley induces rapid melting of snow whereas the increase in mean minimum temperature does not allow glaciers to freeze to required extent and ultimately affects its life span.

Observed Climatic Trends in Liddar Valley

1. Temperature

Temperature is one of the most important climatologic parameter which has important influence on the snowmelt. The most significant evidence for regional and global climate change is the increase in summer minimum temperature averages. The increasing trend in these temperatures is important for explaining glacier retreats. The studies about the maximum and minimum temperature trends over Liddar valley show a clear increasing trend in both minimum and maximum temperatures.

5.4.1. Temperature (oC) - Mean Monthly Maximum

The mean monthly maximum temperature of the Liddar valley is depicted in Table 9.

84 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

Table 9: Temperature (oC), Mean Monthly Maximum

Year Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Mean

1980 3.9 5.6 8.2 18.0 21.8 24.8 24.5 25.0 22.5 19.2 13.2 3.4 15.84

1982 5.2 3.8 8.1 16.8 21.6 23.7 24.5 25.3 23.3 17.3 10.1 4.0 15.30

1985 2.9 8.3 13.9 16.8 19.7 23.2 25.1 25.8 24.8 17.8 12.6 6.0 15.57

1990 5.4 7.1 9.7 16.4 25.4 26.0 27.2 25.5 24.0 18.6 14.4 6.2 17.15

1992 4.2 6.2 9.3 17.0 20.1 24.3 25.4 25.3 22.6 18.5 13.7 8.5 16.25

1995 0.5 4.4 8.7 14.2 22.5 27.3 25.3 25.1 23.7 17.7 14.0 3.3 15.55

2000 5.1 6.1 11.4 18.7 26.1 25.4 24.9 25.2 23.3 22.8 13.8 7.6 17.53

2005 4.0 3.1 10.1 16.7 18.9 25.3 24.4 26.3 25.5 20.0 13.3 8.0 16.30

2007 7.4 8.6 11.6 22.2 22.0 25.1 25.2 25.2 23.7 21.4 15.9 7.7 18.0

Source: India Meteorological Department (IMD), Srinagar.

It is evident from the above table that the mean monthly maximum temperature of the Liddar valley shows an increasing trend. The annual mean maximum temperature increases from 15.84oC in 1980 to 17.15oC in 1990 showing a net increase of 1.31OC in only 10 years (Fig. 9). The temperature further shows an increasing trend from 17.52oC in 2000 to 18.0oC in 2007 (Fig. 9). This means that there is an increase of 0. 48OC in only 7 years. In nutshell, it can be say that during a time period of 27 years, temperature increases from 15.84oC in 1980 to 18.0oC in 2007 (Table 9 and Fig. 10), showing a net increase of 2.16oC. This alarming increase in mean maximum temperature in Liddar valley induces rapid melting of snow and glaciers of the surrounding areas. The composite diagram for mean monthly maximum temperature (1980- 2007) in Liddar valley is depicted in Figure 9.

85 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

TEMPERATURE (OC)- MEAN MONTHLY MAXIMUM

30 1980 25 1982 1985 20 )

C 1990 O ( .

P 15 1992 M E T 10 1995 2000 5 2005

0 2007 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC MONTHS

Fig. 9. Mean Monthly Maximum Temperature oC (Liddar valley) 1980-2007

Mean Annual Maximum Temperatureoc 18.5 18 17.5 17 16.5 ) C

O 16 ( .

P 15.5 TEMPERATURE M

E 15 T 14.5 14 13.5 1980 1982 1985 1990 1992 1995 2000 2005 2007 YEARS

Fig. 10. Mean Annual Maximum Temperature oC (Liddar valley) 1980-2007

86 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

5.4.2. Temperature (oC) - Mean Monthly Minimum

The mean monthly minimum temperature of the Liddar valley is depicted in Table 10.

Table 10: Temperature (oC), Mean Monthly Minimum

Year Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Mean 1980 -6.1 -4.2 -0.8 3.0 5.6 9.3 11.6 11.9 8.3 3.5 -0.8 -4.6 3.05 1982 -6.1 -7.3 -2.7 2.6 5.0 7.9 11.2 10.8 7.4 2.7 -1.1 -4.9 2.12 1985 -10 -7.6 0.3 3.3 5.1 7.2 13.5 12.8 8.4 2.6 -2.2 -3.9 2.45 1990 -3.1 -3.4 -2.8 1.9 5.9 9.6 12.8 13.3 9.8 1.4 -2.6 -4.7 3.17 1992 -9.7 -5.0 -1.0 2.9 6.1 6.6 9.8 10.6 8.7 2.2 -0.4 -0.7 2.59 1995 -11 -6.2 -3.0 2.0 4.9 7.6 12.8 13.4 7.1 2.8 -2.8 -5.7 1.82 2000 -5.6 -3.2 -1.6 3.2 7.4 10.3 13.4 11.4 7.5 1.9 -1.4 -4.7 3.19 2005 -4.5 -2.0 -0.1 2.7 5.8 8.9 12.9 12.5 10.3 2.7 -2.2 -5.1 3.49 2007 -5.7 -1.2 -1.5 4.0 6.7 10.7 13.0 13.5 9.7 1.9 -2.1 -4.8 4.63

Source: India Meteorological Department (IMD), Srinagar.

It is evident from the above table that the mean monthly minimum temperature of the Liddar valley also shows an increasing trend. The annual mean minimum temperature increases from 3.05oC in 1980 to 3.17oC in 1990 (Fig. 11) showing a net increase of 0.12oC in only 10 years. The temperature further shows an increasing trend from 3.19oC in 2000 to 4.63oC in 2007 (Fig. 11). This means that there is an increase of 1.44oC in only 7 years. In nutshell, it can be say that during a time period of 27 years, temperature increases from 3.05oC in 1980 to 4.6oC in 2007,(Table 10; Fig. 12), showing a net increase of 1.58 OC. This alarming increase in mean minimum temperature in Liddar valley does not allow glaciers to freeze to required extent and ultimately affects its life span. The composite diagram for mean monthly minimum temperature (1980- 2007) in Liddar valley is depicted in Figure 11.

87 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

Mean Monthly Minimum Temperatureoc

15 1980

10 1982 1985

5 1990 ) C O (

. 1992

P 0 M

E 1995

T JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC -5 2000

2005 -10 2007 -15 MONTHS

Fig. 11: Mean Monthly Minimum Temperature oC (Liddar valley) 1980-2007

Mean Annually Minimum Temperatureoc

5 4.5 4 3.5 )

C 3 O (

TEMPERATURE .

P 2.5 M

E 2 T 1.5 1 0.5 0 1980 1982 1985 1990 1992 1995 2000 2005 2007 YEARS

Fig. 12: Mean Annual Minimum Temperature oC (Liddar valley) 1980-2007

88 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

5.4.3. Precipitation (mm) - Mean Monthly and Total Annual Precipitation is one of the most important climatological parameters, which includes both rain and snow. As the study area is located in higher altitude, where glaciers are the main sources of water, it is necessary to have reliable information about precipitation. The mean monthly and total annual precipitation of the Liddar valley is depicted in Table 11.

Table 11: Precipitation (mm), Mean Monthly and Total Annual Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total 1980 82.4 232.8 139.8 76.9 112.4 187.3 151.7 41.3 109.2 38.8 22.7 35.9 1231.2 1982 68.4 170.0 224.1 163.8 129.5 65.7 52.8 48.9 44.4 110.0 52.6 150.0 1280.2 1985 122.9 25.8 77.7 131.6 195.0 128.0 51.4 71.5 19.1 99.5 00.4 224.2 1147.1 1990 132.2 111.0 331.0 119.8 18.8 51.6 83.1 213.9 48.7 39.4 10.0 215.6 1375.1 1992 208 70 343.8 137.8 148.3 60.7 87.8 69.8 169.9 14.6 44 16.8 1371.5 1995 107.7 172.7 160.8 187.6 76.6 41.6 220.2 126.6 88.7 68.5 41.6 60.4 1353.0 2000 115.0 65.7 123.3 70.6 57.4 106.7 142.6 89.1 87.2 00.8 27.4 36.1 921.9 2005 174.6 320.6 122.4 112.7 125.0 44.3 137.6 45.3 42.9 28.5 22.4 4.4 1180.7 2007 17.9 96.2 328.4 14.8 56.8 124.9 72.3 107.9 62.1 01.8 00.0 38.1 921.2 Source: India Meteorological Department (IMD), Srinagar.

Increase in temperature conditions is facilitated by a corresponding declining trend in precipitation of the study area. The total annual precipitation of the study area declined from 1231.2 mm in 1980 to 1147.1 mm in 1985 (Table 11 and Fig. 13), showing a decline of 84 mm in only 5 years. It further shows a declining trend from 1375.1 mm in 1990 to 921 mm in 2007 (Fig. 13), a decline of 454 mm in 17 years. This declining trend of total annual Precipitation in the study area can be seen from Figure 14. The rate of decline in precipitation in the study area will affect the surrounding glaciers, because all the glaciers in the study region are nourished by the westerly system during winter and are of winter-accumulation type. The composite diagram showing mean monthly precipitation in the study area for the years 1980 to 2007 is given in Fig. 13.

89 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

Mean Monthly Precipitation (mm)

400 1980 350 1982

) 300 m 1985 m ( 250 N O

I 1990 T 200 A T I

P 1992 I 150 C E R

P 100 1995

50 2000

0 2005 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2007 MONTHS

Fig. 13: Mean Monthly Precipitation (mm)-(Liddar valley) 1980-2007

Total Annual Precipitation (mm)

1600 1400

) 1200 m m (

1000 n o i

t 800 a

t PRECIPITATION i p i 600 c e r

P 400 200 0 1980 1982 1985 1990 1992 1995 2000 2005 2007 YEARS

Fig. 14: Total Annual Precipitation (mm)-(Liddar valley) 1980-2007

90 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

5.4.4. Relative Humidity (%)

Next to the temperature and precipitation conditions, the most common piece of information in local weather broadcast is relative humidity. It is a ratio of water vapour actually in the air (content) compared to the maximum water vapour the air is able to hold (capacity) by at that temperature, expressed as a percentage. If the air is relatively dry in comparison to its capacity, the percentage is lower. If the air is relatively moist, the percentage is higher, and if the air is holding all the moisture it can for its temperature, the percentage is 100 per cent. The relative humidity in the study region shows a declining trend in the recent times (Table 12; Fig. 15 and Fig. 16) as is found in the Precipitation.

Table 12: Relative Humidity (%) Mean Monthly and Mean Annually:

Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. July. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total 1980 84 86 75 53 51 53 70 65 64 59 69 88 68 1985 77 78 74 46 52 58 58 67 48 58 68 88 64 1990 84 79 80 51 49 60 67 70 68 59 57 69 66 1995 92 86 78 70 48 43 65 80 68 69 67 87 71 2000 82 76 66 63 56 58 68 67 64 44 58 73 64 2005 88 91 80 55 63 58 73 60 05 55 60 67 62 2007 75 75 69 45 54 54 62 63 61 36 46 75 59

Source: India Meteorological Department (IMD), Srinagar.

The above table clearly shows a decreasing trend of the mean annual relative humidity in the study area. It declined from 68% in 1980 to 66% in 1990. From 1995, it further declined from 71% in 1995 to 59% in 2007 (Table 12 and Fig. 16). It means, in the study area the air becomes dry year after year which directly affects the precipitation and in turn the surrounding glaciers in the study area. The mean monthly relative humidity in the study area is given in Fig. 15.

91 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

Mean Monthly Relative Humidity (%)

100 90 1980 ) 80 % ( 1985 Y 70 T I D I 60 1990 M

U 50 1995 H

E 40 V

I 2000 T

A 30 L

E 2005

R 20 10 2007 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC MONTHS

Fig. 15: Mean Monthly Relative Humidity (%)-(Liddar valley) 1980-2007

Mean Annual Relative Humidity (%) 80

70 ) %

( 60

Y T I 50 D I M

U 40 HUMIDITY H

E V

I 30 T A L

E 20 R 10

0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 YEARS

Fig. 16: Mean Annual Relative Humidity (%)-(Liddar valley) 1980-2007

92 5.5. DISCHARGE REGIMES FROM THE KOLAHOI GLACIER AT LIDDAR HEAD – ARU (WEST LIDDAR)

It has been estimated that a single glacier of the size of the Gangotri glacier has a total volume of over 20 cubic kms of ice as against the total by a very large dam like the Bhakra of less than 8 cubic km (Vohra, 1981). Almost all the glaciers in the valley are in the state of fast retreat. Kolahoi glacier is one of among them. The Kolahoi glacier is receding very fast because of climatic change and anthropogenic pressure. This glacier is a major source of water to the entire valley. The fast melting of the Kolahoi glacier can be traced by observing an increase in its discharge patterns (Table 15; Fig. 19 and 20). With the marked increase in temperature and glacier shrinkage in the Liddar valley since the early 1960s, an increasing amount of additional fresh water is very likely to be released from the Kolahoi glacier storage, resulting in a dramatic increase in the runoff of the Liddar river which is a glacier-fed river. The stream (west Liddar) fed by the Kolahoi glacier shows an increase in the discharge for last few decades as compared to the other streams fed dominantly by snow melt.

The discharge from the Kolahoi glacier is calculated from the Aru (west Liddar) (Table 13 and 14), because the water from the Kolahoi glacier directly enters into its drainage basin. Therefore, the annual discharge at this station reflects the total amount of melting in the Kolahoi glacier (West Liddar). By analyzing the said data from Aru, it is clear that the discharge from Kolahoi glacier is increasing very rapidly year after year. The west Liddar shows an increase in its discharge as compared to the east Liddar in recent times. It appears that fast recession of the glacier, global and regional warming, below normal precipitation occurred during the period of snow accumulation are perhaps the main reasons for accelerating the rate of its melting during recent times.

93 Table 13: Mean Monthly Discharge from the Kolahoi Glacier at Liddar Head- Aru (west Liddar) – 1970, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1992, 1995, 2000 and 2005.

Discharge Discharge Discharge Discharge Date Date Date Date (cusecs) (cusecs) (cusecs) (cusecs) YEAR 1970 YEAR 1980 YEAR 1992 YEAR 2000 Jan. 1970 75 Jan 1980 80 Jan 1992 30 Jan 2000 81 Feb. 1970 92 Feb 1980 89 Feb 1992 71 Feb 2000 79 Mar. 1970 260 Mar 1980 118 Mar 1992 250 Mar 2000 231 Apr. 1970 263 Apr 1980 255 Apr 1992 314 Apr 2000 242 May 1970 457 May 1980 672 May 1992 570 May 2000 481 Jun. 1970 522 Jun 1980 602 Jun 1992 810 Jun 2000 533 Jul. 1970 725 Jul 1980 591 Jul 1992 795 Jul 2000 508 Aug. 1970 599 Aug 1980 347 Aug 1992 470 Aug 2000 432 Sep. 1970 334 Sep 1980 210 Sep 1992 395 Sep 2000 395 Oct. 1970 193 Oct 1980 75 Oct 1992 135 Oct 2000 234 Nov. 1970 115 Nov 1980 72 Nov 1992 100 Nov 2000 141 Dec. 1970 70 Dec 1980 29 Dec 1992 92 Dec 2000 75 YEAR 1975 YEAR 1985 YEAR 1995 YEAR 2005 Jan. 1975 86 Jan 1985 29 Jan 1995 40 Jan 2005 35 Feb. 1975 113 Feb 1985 39 Feb 1995 65 Feb 2005 40 Mar. 1975 270 Mar 1985 200 Mar 1995 310 Mar 2005 326 Apr 1975 426 Apr 1985 533 Apr 1995 430 Apr 2005 278 May 1975 640 May 1985 948 May 1995 468 May 2005 733 Jun. 1975 727 Jun 1985 872 Jun 1995 665 Jun 2005 1111 Jul. 1975 625 Jul 1985 654 Jul 1995 465 Jul 2005 1000 Aug. 1975 509 Aug 1985 511 Aug 1995 390 Aug 2005 509 Sep. 1975 315 Sep 1985 375 Sep 1995 238 Sep 2005 414 Oct. 1975 225 Oct 1985 214 Oct 1995 196 Oct 2005 63 Nov. 1975 192 Nov 1985 199 Nov 1995 54 Nov 2005 13 Dec. 1975 90 Dec 1985 180 Dec 1995 26 Dec 2005 18

Source: Flood Control and Irrigation Department, Srinagar.

94 By analyzing the mean monthly discharge for the year of 1970, it is clear that July with 725 cusecs and December with 70 cusecs have respectively high and low runoff (Table 13; Fig. 17, 18 and 20). Similarly, in the year 1975, the highest mean monthly discharge was in the month of June (727 cusecs) and the lowest discharge was in January (86 cusecs) (Table 13; Fig. 17 and 18). In the year 1980, the highest mean monthly discharge of 672 cusecs was in the month of May and the lowest discharge was in the month of December (29 cusecs). Similarly, for the year 1985, the highest and the lowest figures for discharge were 948 cusecs (May) and 29 cusecs (January) respectively (Table 13; Fig. 17 and 18). By observing the above mentioned figures, it is evident that the discharge from the glacier is increases year after year. In the month of July for the year 1970, the discharge was 725 cusecs. But, as compared to it the discharge was 948 cusecs in the month of May for the year 1985, which clearly indicates an increase in the discharge from the Kolahoi glacier during the summer months. This means that the discharge from the Kolahoi glacier is increased in summer months, which is due to its fast retreat and high temperature conditions prevailing in the catchment.

By observing the discharge from the year 1992, it is evident that the discharge from the Kolahoi glacier has attained a very fast rate as compared to the previous years. This means that the glacier is receding very fast in recent times. In the year 1992, the highest discharge of 810 cusecs was found in the month of June and the lowest discharge of 30 cusecs was found in the month of January (Table 13; Fig. 17 and 18). As against to this, in 2005, the highest discharge of 1111 cusecs was in the month of July and the lowest discharge of 13 cusecs was found in the month of November (Table 13; Fig. 17, 18 and 20). These figures clearly indicate a drastic increase in the discharge from the glacier.

95 The mean monthly discharge from the Kolahoi glacier in recent times is given in table 14. In recent time, the discharge from the glacier is increases drastically due to its fast retreat.

Table 14: Mean Monthly Discharge from the Kolahoi glacier at Liddar Head- Aru (west Liddar) – 2007 and 2008.

Date Discharge (cusecs) Date Discharge (cusecs) Jan 2007 22 Jan 2008 23 Feb 2007 74 Feb 2008 124 Mar 2007 149 Mar 2008 286 Apr 2007 656 Apr 2008 700 May 2007 926 May 2008 1774 Jun 2007 909 Jun 2008 1687 Jul 2007 795 Jul 2008 1130 Aug 2007 425 Aug 2008 649 Sep 2007 418 Sep 2008 677

Oct 2007 108 Oct 2008 145 Nov 2007 53 Nov 2008 65 Dec 2007 39 Dec 2008 38

Source: Flood Control and Irrigation Department, Srinagar.

It is evident from the above table that in recent years Kolahoi glacier is receding at a faster rate. This can be judged by observing an increase in its discharge from the west Liddar. This increase in discharge is given in Table 14 and depicted in Fig. 17 and 18. In 2008, the discharge during the summer months was higher than the summer discharge in previous years. The discharge was 700 cusecs, 1774 cusecs, 1687 cusecs, 1130 cusecs, 649 cusecs and 677 Cusecs for the months of April, May, June, July, August and September respectively, which indicates a dramatic increase in its discharge. The composite diagrams showing the discharge for all the years from 1970 to 2008 are depicted in the Figure 17 and 18.

96 Discharge From Kolahoi Glacier (1970-2008) 2000 1970 1800 1975 1600 ) S 1400 1980 C E S 1985 U 1200 C (

E 1000 1992 G R

A 800 1995 H C S I 600 2000 D 400 2005 200 2007 0 2008 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC MONTHS

Fig. 17: A Bar Diagram showing Discharge from Kolahoi Glacier from 1970-2008

Discharge from Kolahoi Glacier (1970- 2008) 2000 1800 1970 1975 1600 1980 )

s 1400 c

e 1985 s

u 1200 C

( 1992

E 1000 G 1995 R A

H 800 2000 C S I

D 600 2005 400 2007 200 2008 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC MONTHS

Fig. 18: A Line Graph showing Discharge from Kolahoi Glacier from 1970-2008

97 The total annual discharge from the Kolahoi glacier at Aru (west Liddar) is given in Table 15. The discharge shows an increasing trend from 3705 cusecs in 1970 to 4754 cusecs in 1985. It further increases from 4100 cusecs in 1992 to 7298 cusecs in 2008 (Fig. 19). In summer, the discharge increases due to the rapid melting of the glacier and increasing temperature conditions in the surrounding areas. It has been seen that the fast melting of the Kolahoi glacier results in the increase in its discharge.

Table 15: Total Annual Discharge from Kolahoi glacier at Liddar Head -Aru (west Liddar) 1970 – 2008. YEAR TOTAL ANNUAL DISCHARGE (cusecs) 1970 3705 1975 4218 1980 3140 1985 4754 1992 4100 1995 3347 2000 3432 2005 4540 2007 4574 2008 7298

Source: Flood Control and Irrigation Department, Srinagar.

If we compare the mean monthly discharge from the Kolahoi glacier for the years 1970, 1992, 2005 and 2008, it is clear that the discharge is increasing year after year. This fluctuating trend in the discharge regimes from the Kolahoi glacier for the years of 1970, 1992, 2005 and 2008 is depicted in Figure 20. It is clear from the figure that in 1992 the discharge was more than the discharge in 1970 and in 2005 the discharge was more than the 1992 and similarly the discharge in the year 2008 was more than the discharge in 2005. This means that discharge from the Kolahoi glacier is increases year after year which is due to its fast receding trend in the recent times.

98 Total Annual Discharge (Cusecs) from Kolahoi Glacier 8000 ) S

C 7000 E S

U 6000 C (

E 5000 G R

A 4000 DISCHARGE H C

S 3000 I D

L 2000 A T

O 1000 T 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1992 1995 2000 2005 2007 2008 YEARS

Fig. 19: Total Annual Discharge from the Kolahoi glacier at Aru (Liddar head) - (1970-2008)

Comparisons of Mean Monthly Discharge from Kolahoi Glacier between 1970, 1992, 2005 and 2008

2000 1800

) 1600 S C

E 1400 1970 S U

C 1200 1992 (

E 1000 G 2005 R

A 800

H 2008 C 600 S I

D 400 200 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC MONTHS

Fig. 20: Comparisons of Discharge from Kolahoi glacier at Aru between 1970, 1992, 2005 and 2008

99 5.6. DISCHARGE OF LIDDAR RIVER AT SHESHNAG (EAST LIDDAR): 1992-2008 As we know that the Liddar valley begins from the base of the two snow fields; the Kolahoi and Sheshnag. From here its two main upper streams; the West and the East Liddar originate and join near the famous tourist town of Pahalgam. It therefore, becomes necessary to calculate the discharge from the East Liddar also to analyze the contribution from both these upper streams to the Liddar river. The discharge from the East Liddar at Sheshnag (1992-2008) is given in Table 16 and depicted in Figure 23.

Table 16: Discharge of the Liddar river at Sheshnag (East Liddar, 1992- 2008): Discharge Discharge Discharge Discharge Date Date Date Date (cusecs) (cusecs) (cusecs) (cusecs) Jan 1992 50 Jan 1995 45 Jan 2002 42 Jan 2008 40 Feb 1992 55 Feb 1995 62 Feb 2002 60 Feb 2008 70 Mar 1992 85 Mar 1995 94 Mar 2002 17 Mar 2008 104 Apr 1992 231 Apr 1995 116 Apr 2002 117 Apr 2008 374 May 1992 320 May 1995 298 May 2002 64 May 2008 936 Jun 1992 370 Jun 1995 345 Jun 2002 20 Jun 2008 1019 Jul 1992 380 Jul 1995 439 Jul 2002 350 Jul 2008 443 Aug 1992 290 Aug 1995 340 Aug 2002 6 Aug 2008 464 Sep 1992 200 Sep 1995 280 Sep 2002 470 Sep 2008 170 Oct 1992 125 Oct 1995 192 Oct 2002 5 Oct 2008 37 Nov 1992 48 Nov 1995 95 Nov 2002 3 Nov 2008 24 Dec 1992 40 Dec 1995 54 Dec 2002 2 Dec 2008 20 Source: Flood Control and Irrigation Department, Srinagar.

By comparing the discharge from the Sheshnag (East Liddar) with that from the Kolahoi glacier (West Liddar), it is clear that the contribution from Kolahoi glacier to the river Liddar is more and increases very rapidly in recent times (Table 13, 14 and 16). This is due to the fast retreat of Kolahoi glacier which helps in increase in its discharge. The Figure 21 and 22 shows the mean monthly increasing trend of discharge from the Kolahoi glacier as compared to the discharge from Sheshnag for the years of 1992 and 2008 respectively.

100 Discharge Comparisons from West and the East Liddar (1992) 900 800

) 700 S C E

S 600

U WEST C ( 500 LIDDAR E G

R 400 EAST A H

C 300 LIDDAR S I

D 200 100 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC MONTHS

Fig. 21: Showing mean monthly discharge comparisons between West and the East Liddar for the year 1992

Discharge Comparisons from West and the East Liddar (2008) 2000 1800 1600 ) S

C 1400 E S

U 1200 C W. LIDDAR (

E 1000 G E. LIDDAR R

A 800 H C

S 600 I D 400 200 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC MONTHS

Fig. 22: Showing mean monthly discharge comparisons between West and the East Liddar for the year 2008

101 The comparison in the mean annual discharge regimes from the Kolahoi glacier (west Liddar) and Sheshnag (east Liddar) for the years of 1992, 1995, 2000 and 2008 is shown in the Table 17.

Table 17: Comparisons of Discharge between the Kolahoi glacier (west Liddar) and Sheshnag (East Liddar) - 1992, 1995, 2000 and 2008

Total Annual Discharge (cusecs) YEAR West Liddar (Kolahoi Glacier) East Liddar (Sheshnag)

1992 4100 2194

1995 3347 2360

2000 3432 1156

2008 7298 3701

Source: Flood Control and Irrigation Department, Srinagar.

The above table clearly indicates that the total annual discharge from the Kolahoi glacier (west Liddar) is increasing drastically year after year as compared to the discharge from Sheshnag (east Liddar). The discharge from the Sheshnag increases from 2194 cusecs in 1992 to 3701 cusecs in 2008 (Fig. 24). As compared to it the discharge from the Kolahoi glacier increases from 4100 cusecs in 1992 to 7298 cusecs in 2008 (Fig. 24), thus showing a drastic increase in recent times which clearly indicates its fast retreat.

102 Discharge of Liddar at Sheshnag (East Liddar)-

1200 1992-2008

1000 )

S 1992 C

E 800 S

U 1995 C (

E 600

G 2000 R A

H 2008 C 400 S I D 200

0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC MONTHS Fig. 23: Showing Discharge of the Liddar at Sheshnag (East Liddar)-1992- 2008

Total Annual Discharge from Kolahoi Glacier and

8000 Sheshnag

7000 )

S 6000 C E S

U 5000

C WEST (

E 4000 LIDDAR G R

A EAST

H 3000

C LIDDAR S I

D 2000

1000

0 1992 1995 2000 2008 YEARS

Fig. 24: Showing total annual discharge between west and the east Liddar- 1992-2008

103 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

5.7. DISCUSSION

Mean annually values of temperature, precipitation and discharge for the years 1980 to 2007 in the Liddar basin are listed in Table 18. The average annual maximum temperature was around 15oC between 1980 and 1995. From 1995 onwards temperature increases to about 0.47oC. Not only the mean annual maximum temperature increases but the mean annual minimum temperature also shows an increasing trend from the year 2000 onwards (Table 18). This increase in temperature in the Kolahoi glacier valley may have resulted in enhanced glacier shrinkage. It is evident from the Figures 25 and 26 that anomalously high rates of glacier shrinkage have resulted due to the climatic warming and Figure 27 shows that how high rates of glacier shrinkage due to climatic warming have resulted in high runoff.

Table 18: Mean annually values of the Temperature (oC), Precipitation (mm) and Discharge (cusecs) in the Liddar Basin (1980-2007).

Mean Mean Total Annual Total Annual Annually Year Annually Min. Precipitation Discharge Max. Temp. Temp.(OC) (mm) (Cusecs) (OC) 1980 15.84 3.26 1231 3140 1985 15.57 2.45 1147 4754 1992 17.15 3.17 1371 4100 1995 15.55 1.82 1353 3347 2000 17.53 3.19 921 3432 2005 16.3 3.49 1300 4540 2007 18.0 4.63 921 4574 Source: India Meteorological and Flood Control and Irrigation Department, Srinagar.

Increase in temperature conditions are facilitated by a corresponding declining trend in precipitation in the study area (Table 18). The amount of

104 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion precipitation in the form of snow has an inverse effect on the amount of runoff. Fresh snow is highly reflective so that it absorbs less heat and melts slowly, while old snow and glacier ice have a low reflectivity. Thus the greater the precipitation in the form of snow, the longer the glacier is covered by a highly reflective material, and the less the runoff. A decreased amount of snowfall leads to a low-reflective surface being exposed longer, producing greater melt and increased runoff. This is evident from Fig. 28 which clearly shows that with decrease in precipitation, runoff increases rapidly.

Fig. 29 shows temperature, precipitation and discharge trends that are likely to take place until 2010. The trends indicate that the total discharge during the given years will increase with the increase in temperature (both annual maximum and annual minimum) and decrease in precipitation. If the temperature conditions are higher than they used to be, there are three negative effects on the glacier mass balance: (a) increased proportion of rain in the total precipitation reduces the accumulation of snowfall, (b) higher temperature increases ablation by sensible heat, and (c) decreased albedo, due to a decrease in snowfall. This increases ablation by absorbing solar radiations to a greater extent.

Thus, variations in the Kolahoi glacier depend strongly on the temperature conditions. Therefore, in the case of low precipitation, rising temperature will reduce accumulation and this intensifies the ablation increase. Glaciers are important storage of fresh water in Kashmir as they accumulate mass; particularly in the winter and provide meltwater at lower elevation. The importance of glaciers is not only limited to Kashmir only: all the water from Jehlum finally falls in the Indus. Therefore, any significant change in glacier mass is certain to impact water resources on a regional level.

105 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

Comparision between Glacier Area (Km2), Mean Max. and Mean Min. Temperatures (OC) :1963, 1992 and 2005 20 18 16 14

Y GLACIER AREA T

I 12 T

N 10 MEAN MAX. A

U 8 TEMP. Q MEAN MIN. 6 TEMP. 4 2 0 1963 1992 2005 YEARS

Fig. 25. A Bar diagram showing Comparision between Glacier Area and Prevailing Temperature Conditions in Liddar basin(1963, 1992 and 2005).

Comparison between Glacier Area (Km2), Mean Max. and Mean Min. Temperatures (OC): 1963, 1992 and 2005 20 18 16 14 GLACIER AREA Y

T 12 I T

N 10 MEAN MAX. A

U 8 TEMP. Q MEAN MIN. 6 TEMP. 4 2 0 1963 1992 2005 YEARS

Fig. 26. A Line graph showing Comparision between Glacier Area and Prevailing Temperature Conditions in Liddar basin(1963, 1992 and 2005).

106 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

Total Discharge (Cusecs) ) S

C 5000 E S

U 4000 C (

E 3000 G

R DISCHARGE

A 2000 H C

S 1000 I D 0 1970 1992 2005 YEARS

Total Glacial Area (Km2) 15 ) 2 m K (

A 10 E R A

L GLACIAL AREA

A 5 I C A L G 0 1963 1992 2005 YEARS

Fig. 27: Trends in total annual discharge and total glacial area in Liddar basin.

Relationship Between Precipitation and Discharge:

5000 1980-2007 4500 4000 3500

Y PRECIPITATION T

I 3000 T

N 2500

A DISCHARGE U 2000 Q

L

A 1500 T

O 1000 T 500 0 1980 1985 1992 1995 2000 2005 2007 YEARS

Fig. 28: Relationship between Precipitation and Discharge in the Liddar basin (1980-2007)

107 Chapter – 5 Results and Discussion

Trends in Temperature in Liddar Basin 1980-2007 20

15 )

C Mean Annual Maximum 0 (

. Temp.

P 10

M Mean Annual Minimum E T 5 Temp.

0 1980 1985 1992 1995 2000 2005 2007 YEARS

Trends in Precipitation in Liddar Basin 1980-2007 1600 )

m 1400 m (

1200

N 1000 O I

T 800

A PRECIPITATION T

I 600 P I

C 400 E

R 200 P 0 1980 1985 1992 1995 2000 2005 2007 YEARS

Trends in Total Annual Discharge from Kolahoi Glacier:

5000 1980-2007 )

S 4500 C

E 4000 S

U 3500 C

( 3000

E 2500 DISCHARGE G

R 2000 A

H 1500 C

S 1000 I

D 500 0 1980 1985 1992 1995 2000 2005 2007 YEARS Fig. 29: Trends in temperature, precipitation and discharge between 1980 and 2007 in Liddar basin.

108 Chapter – 6 Conclusion and Suggestions

6.1. CONCLUSION

The following conclusions were drawn from the present study:

 In the present study an attempt has been made to evaluate the changes in the spatial extent of the Kolahoi glacier within 42 years (1963–2005). The results clearly show that the glacier is receding very fast in recent times and will disappear in future if the same trend of recession continues. The spatial extent of the glacier has changed from 13.57 km2 in 1963 to 11.22 km2 in 1992, a net change of 2.35 km2 in 29 years, showing a net rate of change of 0.08 Km2/year. The glacier has further receded up to 10.69 km2 in 2005, a net change of 0.53 km2 in 13 years from 1992, showing a net rate of change of 0.04 Km2/year. In nutshell, it can be say that the glacier receded up to 2.88 km2 between 1963 and 2005, with an average rate of 0.06 km2 per year in a time period of 42 years.

 The Kolahoi glacier is receding very fast because of some factors generated by the human activities in the study area. The various anthropogenic factors responsible for its recession may be: Tourism, Increasing population, Yatras, Increasing activity of Gujjars and Bakarwalls near the glacier, Cement plants, Deforestation, etc.

 Tourism is the main economic activity in the Pahalgam. Negative impacts from tourism occur when the level of visitor use is greater than the environment’s ability to cope with this use within the accessible limits of change. The flow of tourist in Pahalgam over the last 40 years has picked up remarkably. It has increased from 26268 in 1965 to 725781 in 2007.

 The structures made by the Pahalgam Development Authority for the Yatries, in turn, are responsible for the environmental degradation of Pahalgam, which ultimately becomes a serious cause for glacier melting

109 Chapter – 6 Conclusion and Suggestions

in the region. The number of Yatries increases from 0.04 lakhs in 1960 to 4.54 lakhs in 2006.

 It is obvious that overpopulation is the root cause of environmental degradation and ecological imbalance in Pahalgam which ultimately affects the surrounding snow cover. The local population in Pahalgam increases from 1920 persons in 1961 to 7106 persons in 2011.

 In Pahalgam, forest cover is decreasing year after year. Forest Survey of India (FSI) 1987-1997, shows a comparative change in dense forest cover in the Jammu and Kashmir Himalayas’ as there was only 11,020km2 area under dense forest cover in 1997 as against to 12,970km2 area in 1987, which shows an annual growth rate of -1.51% in dense forest cover in Jammu and Kashmir. This ultimately leads to decrease in precipitation and finally it affects the growth of glaciers in the valley.

 The activity of Gujjars and Bakarwalls near the Kolahoi glacier is increasing day by day; hence have an impact on the glacier, as this area is devoid of any facility like garbage dumps, lavatories, etc. for their survival.

 Breaking of glacial ice at several places testifies to the large production of glacial melt water which is an outcome of its fast retreat. The crevasses developed in the ablation portion of the Kolahoi glacier testify the fast retreat of the glacier. The main snout of the glacier has developed numerous caves which act as an indicator of fast recession. In 2007, the Kolahoi glacier has less amount of debris present on its surface which causes its less melting due to high albedo. On the other hand, in 2011, this glacier possesses a huge amount of debris (black basalt) present on its surface which helps in its fast retreat due to low albedo in recent times.

110 Chapter – 6 Conclusion and Suggestions

 The analysis of climatic factors of the study area shows that the recession is coherent with the warming trend. It can be said that, increasing trend of both minimum and maximum temperatures are responsible for areal decrease with the effect of melting. Furthermore the precipitation values over years have also shown a declining trend. The mean annual maximum temperature in the study area increases from 15.8oC in 1980 to 18.0oC in 2007. This alarming increase in mean maximum temperature in Liddar valley induces rapid melting of snow and glaciers. The mean annual minimum temperature in the study area has also shows an increasing trend and increases from 3.05oC in 1980 to 4.63oC in 2007. This increase in mean minimum temperature does not allow the surrounding glaciers to freeze to required extent and ultimately affects its life span. Increase in temperature conditions is facilitated by a corresponding declining trend in precipitation. The precipitation declines from 1231 mm in 1980 to 921.2 mm in 2007.

 The discharge from the Kolahoi glacier is increasing year after year which shows its fast recession in recent time. The total annual discharge from the Kolahoi glacier at Aru (west Liddar) shows an increasing trend from 3705 cusecs in 1970 to 4100 cusecs in 1990. The discharge further increases from 1990 and reaches upto 7298 cusecs in 2008.

 By comparing the discharge from the Sheshnag (East Liddar) with that of the Kolahoi glacier (West Liddar), it seems that the contribution from Kolahoi glacier is more and increases drastically in recent times. Discharge from the Sheshnag increases from 2194 cusecs in 1990 to 3701 cusecs in 2008. As compared to this the discharge from the Kolahoi glacier increases from 4100 cusecs in 1990 to 7298 cusecs in 2008, thus showing a drastic increase in recent times which may be due to its fast retreat.

111 Chapter – 6 Conclusion and Suggestions

6.2. SUGGESTIONS

The observed changes in the spatial extent of the Kolahoi glacier highlighted the urgency of collaborative sustainable management to confront the problem of water resources in the study area. The major recommendations helpful in solving the problems regarding the fast receding trend of the Kolahoi glacier are listed below:

 The present study deals with the impact of glaciers on the hydrology of Kashmir rivers. The results clearly reveal that the glacier under investigation is receding very fast as compared to other valley glaciers as a result of which its discharge is increasing in recent times and will decrease in near future if the same trend continued happen to it. Hence satellite based monitoring must be employed. Since the accessibility to the Himalayan snow covered region is very difficult, one has to depend on remote sensing technique for snow cover studies. Owing to their synoptic view, repetitive coverage and up-to-datedness, remote sensing materials are an unprecedentedly powerful and efficient media to study glaciers that are usually located in remote, inaccessible and inhospitable environments.

 The snow and ice in the study area is very valuable economic resources for the people who are living there as besides meteorological and environmental significance, the socio-economics of the area is totally governed by the melt from this glacier. It is important for this resource to be measured, monitored, studied and understood so that the maximum use can be made of it.

 While studying the glaciers , not only the spatial extent of the glaciers undertaken, but also other parameters like snow density, glacier thickness, geomorphology, snow melt runoff, hydrology, digital elevation models and all other associated features and phenomenon

112 Chapter – 6 Conclusion and Suggestions

studies should be undertaken for proper monitoring and management of the glaciers. Also the permanent and seasonal snow cover studies need to be undertaken.

 Control the carbon dioxide emission. This is the most important step for tackling the problem of global warming. A drastic cut in the fossil fuel consumption in the study area is needed. More emphasis should be given on developing new alternative fossil fuels, such as CNG and LPG in the study area. The solar energy also offers a great potential as an alternative fuel.

 There should be vigorous research for upgrading the modern machineries of automobiles so that maximum output is derived from using minimum quantity of fuel.

 Checking on the quantity of pollution in the study area after every one month, therefore, it is recommended to start a pollution control board in the Pahalgam.

 Stop the increasing activity of Gujjars and Bakerwalls near the glacier.

 Tourism is the main economy for Kashmiri people. But when the number of tourists increases they pose a threat to the environment of the visiting place. Therefore, this is suggested that their number should be reduced to a greater extent.

 Dispersal of tourist facilities and development of potential areas to increase its bearing capacities.

 Provision for the existing deficiencies of tourist facilities with judicious disposition.

 To make rational and judicious use of land based on the synthesis of tourist and ecological studies.

113 Chapter – 6 Conclusion and Suggestions

 To reduce the number of Yatries coming to Pahalgam every year and also the duration of Amar Nath Ji Yatra.

 To make people (local) aware of the importance of forests. Deforestation should be checked and afforestation should be promoted in the study area as forests are directly concerned with the precipitation.

 Government should develop such a plan for the constructional purposes so that environment can be protected from the degradation.

 The garbage pits and open lavatories made for the Yatries should be avoided.

 Restrict all sorts of development in Pahalgam bowl which are responsible for the degradation of environment.

 To improve the quality of village settlements through improvement and provision of basic services.

 Plan and develop a separate place enroute to Chandanwari for pilgrims to the Holy Cave.

 The steps should be taken to control the expected pollution to be caused due to human excreta etc. at Baltal and Pahalgam during the forth coming Amaranth Ji Yatra.

 Mini sewage treatment plants should be used to treat the polluted water and sewage at the source.

 There should be an increase in raising the social awareness about the role of glaciers in the socio-economic life of the humans.

 Reported abnormal retreat of the glaciers in the Himalayas, more so since 1962, is often the result of the position of the glacier front-snout in Survey of India maps, published post 1962 not having been correctly recorded. Accuracy rate of the topographic maps of Survey of India, so

114 Chapter – 6 Conclusion and Suggestions

far as the other physical features are concerned is exceptionally high. The same, however, cannot be said about the position of the individual glacier snout. Obvious reason for this being that the maps are based on the aerial photography done during the 1961-62 (November- January) when, even in field, it becomes difficult to differentiate between the actual glacier front and the snow covered terminal moraines. Survey of India may have to be requested to recheck the position of the glacier snouts using the latest remote sensing technology to facilitate the glacier snout monitoring accurately in future.

 To evolve better understanding of the subject matter and spread the knowledge to wider audience regular workshops and seminars could be held and funds made available for the same.

 A long-term sustained and integrated research strategy incorporating Himalayan and sub-Himalayan catchment hydrological processes is imperative for generating useful information on the effect of climate change on the Himalayan cryosphere and headwater river run-off.

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139 Annexure – I: Contour Map of Liddar Valley- 1963 Annexure – II: Base Map of Liddar Valley- 1963 Annexure – III: Field Truth Photographs

Sample – 1: Different Snout Positions of the Kolahoi Glacier Sample – 2: Crevasses Developed in the Kolahoi Glacier Sample – 3: Different types of Moraines found in and around the Kolahoi Glacier (A)

(B)

(C)

Sample – 4: (A) Glacial Striations; (B) Glacial Grooves; and (C) Polished Rochee Mountaines in the Kolahoi Glacier Recent Research in Science and Technology 2011, 3(9): 68-73 ISSN: 2076-5061 www.scholarjournals.org

www.recent-science.com RRST- Geography Geomorphologic Character & Receding Trend of Kolahoi Glacier in Kashmir Himalaya T.A. Kanth, Aijaz Ahmad Shah, Zahoor ul Hassan* Department of Geography and Regional Development, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, J&K, India

Article Info Abstract

Article History Glaciers are a valuable source of fresh water which sustain life and provide water for

Received : 30-06-2011 drinking, irrigation, hydro power generation, etc. Besides, these exert considerable influence Revised : 04-08-2011 on the climate of a region and fluctuate in dimension in response to the climatological Accepted : 04-08-2011 changes and therefore, these are regarded as sensitive indicators of the climate of a region. Glaciers are in the process of retreat in almost all the parts of the world due to global *Corresponding Author warming. The same process of retreat is found in the valley’s largest glacier, Kolahoi. Thus,

Tel : +91-9419524604 it is of great significance to obtain the accurate information of changes in Kolahoi glacier (34° 07′ to 34° 12′ N latitude; & 75° 16′ to 75° 23′ E longitude, Liddar valley, Kashmir Himalayas). The study was carried out using Remote Sensing and GIS techniques and Email: [email protected] thorough field observations were conducted to identify the geomorphologic features. The area of the glacier receded from 13.57km² in 1963 to 10.69km² in 2005, registering a change of 2.88km2at a rate of 0.068km2per year. The Crevasses developed in the ablation portion of the Kolahoi Glacier and the formation of numerous caves at its snout position act as the important indicators of its recession. The result of this retreat will prove disastrous for the valley in many fields like drinking water, agriculture, horticulture, ground water, hydro power capacity of the state, etc. Therefore, we need to make efforts to save this precious source of water for the present as well as for future generations.

©ScholarJournals, SSR Key Words: retreat, global warming, Kolahoi glacier, Liddar valley, geomorphology

Introduction Glaciers are considered as the important renewing the earth-atmosphere system. With the acceleration of global sources of fresh water. These play an important role in the warming in the 1980s, it has become more and more important hydrological cycle of the earth. A glacier is a naturally moving to understand the ability of glaciers to provide water sources body of large dimensions formed from the recrystallization and the disasters related to glaciers and climate change [3]. under pressure of accumulated snow. Glaciers move very Glaciers in the Kashmir valley are in the process of fast retreat slowly, from tens of meters to thousands of meters per year. due to increase in temperature, globally. Glaciers are one of Kashmir Himalayas has got the largest concentration of the earth’s most sensitive indicators of climatic change. glaciers with 3116 glaciers covering an area of 3200km²; Glacial geomorphology is the study of landform produced nearly 13% of the states territory [1]. The main glaciers of by glacial and fluvioglacial processes in the areas of present Kashmir valley are: Kolahoi, Thajwas, Machoi, Nehnar, etc. glaciers as well as in areas covered by the glaciers during the Different river systems and their tributaries originate from these Pleistocene. Much of the spectacular character of the present glaciers. Any change in the temperature or winter precipitation topography of the northern part of the Liddar Valley has in the form of snowfall influences the flow in the hydrological resulted from the glaciations in the remote past. A study of the system of the valley. glacial processes operating currently can throw light on the Glaciers have receded substantially during the last landforms that were created by similar processes in the past. century in response to the climatic warming; especially in the Therefore, it will be helpful in reconstructing the genesis of the mountainous regions such as Himalayas. The differences in landform features. During the advance movement of glacier; it the global mean temperature between the last glacial creates some erosional and depositional features which remain maximum and present warm period is about 5°C. However, stagnant and act as evidences for the glacial recession. The this slow rate of climate change probably changed in the 20th geomorphologic features of glaciers which act as indicators for century due to rapid industrialization. Large emissions of CO2, its retreat or recession are glacial grooves, cirques, moraines, other trace gases and aerosols have changed the composition crevasses, eskers, outwash plains etc. The present study of the atmosphere [2]. This has affected the radiation budget of

68

T.A.Kanth et al./Rec Res Sci Tech 3 (2011) 68-73

involves the change detection and geomorphic character of the The Liddar valley begins from the base of two main ice valley’s largest glacier, i.e., Kolahoi glacier. fields, the Kolahoi and the Shisram. From here, its two main upper streams the west Liddar and the east Liddar originate Study Area and join near pahalgam. The liddar merges with Jhelum at Gur The Liddar valley occupies the southern part of the giant after traveling a course of about 70kms from Kolahoi to Gur. It Kashmir Himalayan synclinorium and forms part of the middle has a catchment area of 1134km². It lies between 33° 45′ to Himalayas. The Liddar valley lies between the Pir Panjal range 34° 15′ N latitude and 75° 0′ to 75° 30′ E longitude. The in the south and southeast, the north Kashmir range in the Liddar valley relives a variegated topography due to the main Himalayan range in the northeast and Zaskar range in combined action of glaciers and rivers. The glaciated section of the northwest. The area gradually rises in elevation from south the valley contains many erosional and depositional features. (1600mts.) to north (5400mts.). The location map of the study The Liddar valley has distinct climatic characteristics. It area is given in fig. 1.1. has sub-Mediterranean type of climate with nearly 80% of its annual rainfall in winter and spring season.

Fig. 1.1: Location map of Study Area

The base map is prepared from SOI Toposheet at Database & Methodology 1:50,000 scale. The spatial extent of the glacier is delineated In the present study, the database consists of: the Survey and digitized in the Arcview 3.2a. The map prepared from of India Topographical map (1963), on 1:50,000 scale, satellite image is then superimposed on the base map in a GIS No.: 43 N\8, the geometrically corrected IRS 1C LISSIII (2005) environment and the third layer was created by identifying the with the resolution of 23.5 meters & the meteorological data of changed area. The findings are presented in the form of the Liddar valley. An extensive field survey was conducted to change detection map. identify the glacial geomorphological features of Liddar valley. The methodology employed in the present study is given The research was carried out, utilizing the power of Remote in fig. 1.2. Sensing & GIS in the Erdas Imagine & Arc view 3.2a.

69 T.A.Kanth et al./Rec Res Sci Tech 3 (2011) 68-73

discharge from the glacier in two time periods viz; 1992 & 2008 is studied which shows an increase in the glacier melt during the summer season.

(A) Geomorphic Features

Glaciers generally give rise to erosional features in the

highland and depositional features on the lowland, although it

shows all the three processes, erosion, transportation and

deposition throughout its course. Abrasion and plucking are the

two main processes responsible for the creation of erosional

landforms of the study region. They operate when the glacier Fig.1.2. Steps of Methodology moves in the bed rock channels of the east and west Liddar valley in response to gravity and basal sliding. Results and Discussion Glacial Erosional Features The results of the present study are divided into three In the glaciated section of the Liddar valley the limited parts. Part –I deals with the various geomorphic features of the erosional feature like Whalebacks, Roche moutonnee, Glacial Kolahoi glacier which are identified during the field survey. valleys and the Cirques were identified. A detailed account of Part –II deals with the change detection in the spatial extent of these features is given in the table 1.1. the Kolahoi glacier from 1963 to 2005. In the last part,

Table-1.1.: Erosional Features made by Kolahoi glacier. Erosional feature Characteristics Site

(A) Striations, Glaciers carry many types of fragments and particles embedded in them. Those 1. Glacial striated Grooves, & particles placed along the base of a glacier may scratch, grind or groove the rock erratic at ARU. Roche surface during the movement of ice. Such fine cut lines and scratches become 2. Grooving in Moutonnee. exposed when the glacier disappears. These are termed as striations or striae, and limestone at are considered among the most reliable evidence of glacial erosion of the past ages. Nagakhoti, East The small scale streamlined depressions are called as glacial grooves Liddar. Roche Moutonnee is a glacial erosional feature, consisting of asymmetrical mounds 3. Polished Roche of rock of varying size, with a gradual smooth abraded slope on one side and a moutonnee at steeper rougher slope on the other. Nagakhoti, East Liddar. (B) Glaciated Well developed glacier valleys are called troughs. The glaciated valleys of the study Glacial trough at trough(valleys) region are asymmetrical and approximately parabolic in form. In their transverse Liddarwat profile, glacial valleys present a typical U-shaped outline, tending more towards a semi-circle. This is attributed to the fact that glaciers, unlike streams cut their sides at an equal or even at a faster rate than their bases. (C)Whaleback Whalebacks are glacially moulded, hard rock surfaces. Their length is greater than Northern part of the their height. They have smooth rock surfaces on all sides which have been Liddar Valley. produced by glacial abrasion. Whalebacks in the study region are rounded and elongated hillocks (D) Cirques A cirque is a semi-circular steep-sided depression formed through glacial erosion. A Near Kolahoi Gunj cirque is formed at the head of a valley glacier where some snow accumulates and area and Hoskar is compacted to form a cirque glacier flowing down slope to feed the valley glacier. Source: Field Observation, 2010

Glacial Depositional Features Moraines Glaciers hardly create any depositional features before Moraines are the most important of the glacial deposits. they melt. Most of the deposition by glaciers therefore occurs The three types of moraines –the ground moraine, the lateral in the zone of melting. The debris deposited directly by glaciers moraine and the terminal moraines produce different types of is not sorted or layered. It is heterogeneous in composition and shapes. The major part of the glacial section of the valley is lacks stratification. Such deposits are called moraines or covered with moraines arranged in ridges, which are glacial till. approximately parallel to the side of the valley. The various types of moraines found in the study region are given in the

table-1.2.

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Table-1.2: Depositional Features made by Kolahoi Glacier.

Types of Moraines Characteristics Location

(A) Lateral These are thin or thick streaks of rock debris that generally along the sides of a glacier. Kolahoi Gunj moraines Area.

(B) Ground These are formed when glacial sediments (Till) are deposited at the floor of glacial valley. Glacial till at moraines The sediments are not sorted because coarse and fine sediments are deposited together. Kolahoi, Lidderwat (C) Terminal These are formed due to deposition of glacial Till across the moving ice sheets at the Near Satlangan moraines snouts of glaciers after ablation of ice.

Source: Field Observation, 2010

The advance movement of glacier creates some erosional (B) Recession of Kolahoi Glacier and depositional features which remain stagnant and act as During Pleistocene, Kolahoi glacier was fed by nine other evidences for the glacial recession. The geomorphologic glaciers and its basin covered about 650km². The present features of glaciers which act as indicators for its retreat or snow field feeding this glacier covers only 2.5km², and no other recession are glacial grooves, cirques, moraines, crevasses, glacier joins it. In Pleistocene it extended for 35km to terminate eskers, outwash plains etc. The snout of the Kolahoi Glacier near 2760m ASL and at present it terminates within 3km from has narrowed and moved away from lateral moraines leaving its cirque at 3650m ASL [4]. behind end and lateral moraines; the earlier extent of the In the present study change detection was carried from glacier can be estimated from them. The fresh, lateral 1963 to 2005 as given in table 1.3 and depicted in fig.1.3. The moraines on the either side of the glacial trough near Kolahoi area of the Kolahoi glacier in the year 1963 was 13.57 km² Gunj act as strong indicators of the past width and length of the which receded up to 10.69 km² in the year 2005, a net glacier. The crevasses developed in the ablation portion of the decrease of about 2.88 km² in 42 years. The rate of change is Kolahoi glacier testify the fast retreat of the glacier. The main 0.68 km2 per year from 1963 to 2005, thereby showing a snout of the glacier has developed numerous caves which act drastic increase in the rate of retreat in the Kolahoi glacier. as an indicator of fast recession. The distinctive location of end Kolahoi glacier is thus receding at a very fast rate. It may be moraines at the three altitudinal sites of the west Liddar valley due to both anthropogenic & natural causes like increase in provides an evidence of three distinctive phases of deposition. temperature, deforestation, tourism, increased activity of Gujjars & Bakerwalls, high levels of pollution caused by the emission of greenhouse gases, military vehicular movement, cement plants,

etc.

Source: Computed from SOI Toposheets, 1963 & IRS 1C LISS III 2005 Fig. 1.3.(a,b,c & d): Change Detection of Kolahoi Glacier[a:1963;b:2005;c:Change 1963-2005;d:changed area]

71 T.A.Kanth et al./Rec Res Sci Tech 3 (2011) 68-73

(C) Discharge from the Glacier (1992 & 2008) Liddar river. The variability in the discharge in the years 1992 & The Hydrological data of west Liddar of 1992 & 2008 as 2008 is shown in Fig. 1.4. given in Table 1.4 shows a net increase in the discharge of

Table 1.3: Change Detection of Kolahoi Glacier

Area(Km2) Area(Km2) Time Interval Change Rate of Change 1963 2005 (km2) (km2/year) 13.57 10.69 42 years 2.88 0.068

Source: Computed from SOI Toposheets, 1963 & IRS 1C LISS III, 2005

Table-1.6: Discharge at Aru (west Liddar) for the years 1992 & 2008. {YEAR 1992} {YEAR 2008} Date Discharge (cusecs) Date Discharge (cusecs)

10-01-1992 190 07-01-2008 23

10-02-1992 172 07-02-2008 15

11-03-1992 435 07-03-2008 229

23-04-1992 681 07-04-2008 247

06-05-1992 470 07-05-2008 1393

06-06-1992 810 07-06-2008 1687

06-07-1992 790 07-07-2008 1130

06-08-1992 870 07-08-2008 393

06-09-1992 295 07-09-2008 677

03-10-1992 155 07-10-2008 145

Source:-Department of Irrigation & Flood control, Srinagar

In the months of May, June & July for the year 1992, the may be due to the increase in the glacier melt & subsequent discharge was 470, 810, & 790 cusecs respectively. In runoff and thus indicates the rapid melting of the glacier in the comparison to this, the discharge from these months for the year 2008 in the summer season (May, June & July) in year 2008 was 1393, 1687 &1130 cusecs respectively. This Kashmir.

Fig.1.4:Discharge of West liddar River At Aru(For the years 1992 &2008).

This is also evident from the distinctive location of end Conclusion moraines at the three altitudinal sites of the west Liddar valley Glaciers are in the process of retreat in almost all the which provide an evidence of three distinctive phases of parts of the world due to global warming. The same process of deposition. The Crevasses developed in the ablation portion of retreat is found in the valley’s largest glacier, Kolahoi. Its area the Kolahoi Glacier and the formation of numerous caves at its in the year 1963 was 13.57km² which receded up to 10.69km² snout position act as the important indicators of its recession. in the year 2005, a net decrease of about 2.88 km² in 42 years.

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The Hydrological data shows a net increase of 2140 References cusecs during the summer season (May, June, July) in the [1] Hasnain, S.I (1999): Himalayan Glaciers, Hydrology & discharge of Liddar River. This is due to the increase in the Hydrochemistry. Allied publishers, Ltd.pp.1-24 &30-60. glacier melt & subsequent runoff. The large production of [2] Seiler, W and Hahn, J (2001): The natural and glacial melt water is also testified by the breaking of glacial ice anthropogenic greenhouse effect-changing chemical at several places in Kolahoi Glacier composition of the atmosphere due to human activities, in Kolahoi glacier is receding at a very fast rate due to both climate of 21st century: changes and risks. Published by anthropogenic & natural causes like increase in temperature, Wissenschaftliche Auswertuugen, Berlin, Germany, deforestation, tourism, increased activity of Gujjars & pp.116-122. Bakerwalls, high levels of pollution caused by the emission of [3] Mennis, J.L., Fountain, A.G (2001): A spatial - temporal greenhouse gases, military vehicular movement, cement GIS database for monitoring alpine glacier change. plants, etc. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, The result of this retreat will prove disastrous for the 67(B):967-975. valley in many fields like drinking water, agriculture, [4] Ahmad, N and Rais, S (1998): Himalayan Glaciers. horticulture, ground water, hydro power capacity of the state, A.P.H.Publishing Corporation, New Delhi pp. 40-77 &101- etc. Therefore, we need to make efforts to save this precious 122. source of water for the present as well as for future generations.

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