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Controversies in Exit Polling: Implementing a Racially Stratified Homogenous Precinct Approach

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Controversies in Exit Polling: Implementing a Racially Stratified Homogenous Precinct Approach Controversies in Exit Polling: Implementing a Racially Stratified Homogenous Precinct Approach Matt A. Barreto, University of Washington Fernando Guerra, Loyola Marymount University Mara Marks, Loyola Marymount University Stephen A. Nuño, University of California, Irvine Nathan D. Woods, Welch Consulting, Inc. n November 2000, exit poll interviews counts and lawsuits, it was clear that the unreliable because the members of the I with voters in Florida indicated that Al exit polls were wrong; Bush had won the demographic subgroups interviewed for Gore won the state. As a result, many state by the narrowest of margins. As a the poll are not necessarily representative television networks declared Gore the result of the flawed exit poll1 the media of all members of their demographic winner of Florida, a pivotal state to win- and pollsters scoured and reanalyzed the subgroup. What’s more, with a growing ning the presidency in 2000. Only a few methodology used in 2000 to prepare number of Americans voting via absentee hours later, the first vote tallies from the and correct for the 2004 presidential ballot, Election Day-only exit polls2 Florida Secretary of State’s office re- election. The old system, Voter News could miss a large segment of the vealed that George W. Bush was in fact Service ~VNS! was scrapped entirely, electorate. leading in Florida. After 45 days of re- and Edison-Mitofsky Research was cho- Since the November 2004 presidential sen to implement a new and more accu- election considerable media coverage has rate national exit poll in 2004 by a focused on the exit poll controversy. A consortium of news organizations re- December 2004 New York Times article Matt A. Barreto is assistant professor of tained by the Associated Press called the noted that Congressman John Conyers political science at the University of Wash- National Election Pool ~NEP!. What hap- ~D-MI! asked Edison-Mitofsky “to turn ington. His research interests include Latino pened? Exit poll results from Edison- over raw data collected in Election Day political participation and public opinion Mitofsky showed John Kerry ahead in exit polls, for investigation of any dis- and has appeared in several journals in- cluding the American Political Science Re- Ohio, Florida, and New Mexico—all crepancies between voter responses and view and Public Opinion Quarterly. states which he lost to Bush in 2004. certified election results” ~Associated In addition to the overall exit poll re- Press 2004!; a January 2005 Washington Fernando Guerra is associate professor sults being skewed, comparative vote Post headline read, “Report Acknowl- of political science and Chicano studies at results for subgroups, such as that for edges Inaccuracies in 2004 Exit Poll” Loyola Marymount University and director Latino voters, also appeared to be wrong. ~Morin and Deane 2005!; and CNN of the Center for the Study of Los Angeles, The NEP reported on November 2, 2004, noted in January 2005 that the Kerry a leading think tank on Los Angeles and that Bush won 45% of the Latino vote, a numbers were “overstated,” and claimed urban politics. His research interests include 10-point gain from 2000. In contrast, an that “CNN did not air those inaccurate urban politics, political leadership, and only racial/ethnic politics. exit poll of Latino voters conducted results or post them on its website.” by the William C. Velasquez Institute Thus, many scholars and pundits reached Mara Marks is assistant professor of reported that Bush won only 32% of the the conclusion that new alternatives to urban studies at Loyola Marymount Univer- Latino vote. Moreover, a pre-election the traditional exit poll may be sity and a research scholar at the Center survey of Latino voters by the Tomás warranted. for the Study of Los Angeles. Her research Rivera Policy Institute, a non-partisan Specifically, we pose two important interests include urban politics, racial/ethnic think tank with more than 10 years expe- methodological questions pertaining to politics, and land-use politics. Her articles rience polling Latino voters, reported the science behind exit polls: ~1! what is have appeared in the Urban Affairs Re- Bush garnering just 30% of the vote ~see the most accurate sampling technique view, among other journals. Leal et al. 2005!. for polling racial and ethnic voters in a Stephen A. Nuño is a doctoral candi- What explains such discrepancies? diverse setting, and ~2! how should exit date in political science at the University of One possibility is the methodology used polls account for early and absentee California, Irvine and a research associate to select the precincts where exit poll votes not cast on Election Day? To an- at the Center for the Study of Los Angeles. interviews are conducted is faulty. Ide- swer these questions, we implemented His research interests include Latino par- ally, the respondents in the exit poll sur- an alternative sampling exit poll in the tisanship, voting behavior, and political vey will be accurate representatives of City of Los Angeles during the 2005 participation. the entire city or state in which the elec- mayoral election and compared our re- tion is being held. However, if the exit sults to the exit poll implemented by the Nathan D. Woods is an economist with poll interviews respondents that are too Los Angeles Times. We then compared Welch Consulting in Santa Monica, Califor- nia. His research focuses on the political conservative or too liberal, too young or both polls to the actual election results. participation of racial and ethnic minorities too old, too poor or too rich, or too In short, the different methodologies and has appeared in the American Political White, it could skew the overall results accounted for different results, suggest- Science Review, Journal of Politics, and by a wide margin, even after weights are ing that new approaches to exit polling other journals. employed. Existing exit polls are often are welcome. PSOnline www.apsanet.org 477 The Good, The Wrong, and While the current debate regarding ~NEP!. The media affiliates that pooled The Ugly sampling continues, practical discussions resources for VNS wanted the most reli- regarding the relationship between the able data possible, to report on election The academic literature regarding exit respondent and surveyor have a long night in 2004. While Edison-Mitofsky polls focuses broadly on two areas, tradition. Common sense tells us that Research sought to address the decline in methodology and human interactions human interactions will produce certain the reliability of exit polls, the results effects. Generally speaking, exit poll biases in any scientific experiment. Drop were disappointing. The 2004 presiden- methodology is comprised of two com- those interactions into a given social tial election exit poll overstated projec- ponents, proper sampling techniques and context, and those biases are likely to tions for John Kerry within precincts the logistical practicalities involved in multiply. The social context can range on average by over 6 points ~Mitofsky administering an exit poll. The conven- from the respondent’s likelihood to an- 2005, 31! and each of the six press re- tional wisdom is that election projections swer sensitive questions honestly ~Aqui- leases issued by Warren0Mitofsky during should be made where precincts are lino 1994; Bishop and Fisher 1995; the election wrongly placed Kerry ahead randomly selected ~Mitofsky 1989!. Benson 1941! to the influence socioeco- in the race ~Morin 2004!. Some tried to However, there is growing belief in the nomic status and ethnicity contribute to attribute the skewed polling numbers to literature regarding general polling tech- the validity of the survey results ~Free- voter fraud ~Baiman et al. 2005!, but the niques that non-probability sampling, man 1969; Welch et al. 1973; Weeks and most compelling explanation has been where respondents are recruited and not Moore 1981; Hurtado 1994!. There are that differential non-response rates by randomly selected, might yield more ac- also limited contributions on the environ- Democrats and Republicans have signifi- curate results ~Couper 2000; Fiorina and mental context of poll taking, such as the cantly skewed the predictive power of Krosnick 2005!. Non-probability sam- time a poll is administered ~Busch and exit polls ~Mitofsky 2005; Liddle 2005!. pling, or quota sampling, has been Lieske 1985! or whether the climate af- This could be based on non-response sharply criticized by the establishment fects the accuracy of polls ~Doob 2001!. patterns, or could be based on precinct ~Mitofsky 1999!, but declining response The business of predicting elections, selection. If too few “Republican” pre- rates ~Groves and Couper 1998! have led however, goes beyond social and envi- cincts were selected to represent the true to questions about the true randomness ronmental contexts. The political circum- result in the state, Bush’s numbers might of conventional random sampling tech- stances of calling elections present exit appear low. Thus, selecting the best pre- niques. And although lower response polling with a substantial public relations cincts to represent an entire state is ex- rates do not seem to substantively affect problem. The difficulty is that incorrect tremely important. the results of the random polls ~Keeter predictions can be satisfactory from a Predicting elections has never been an et al. 2000! the successful use of Internet statistical standpoint, yet quite unsatisfac- insular affair, but the difference between polls has provoked thoughtful discussion tory when those results are inserted into a good call and a correct one can be at on sampling techniques which are appro- a politically charged atmosphere. George the mercy of political context. For in- priate for the web, but not necessarily for Gallup’s career was catapulted by cor- stance, the Edison-Mitofsky regime a conventional exit poll ~Fiorina and rectly predicting that Franklin D. Roose- overstated John Kerry’s national num- Krosnick 2005!.
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