CHAD Food Security Outlook July through December 2015

Though delayed, the growing season is intensifying with the July rains

KEY MESSAGES Current food security outcomes, July 2015  Cumulative rainfall totals as of July 20, 2015 in many areas were down from the same time in 2014, particularly in the central reaches of the country. These rainfall deficits delayed crop planting activities in agricultural areas by one to two weeks, depending on the area. This could mean the planting of smaller areas for certain crops, thereby reducing yields. The main farming activities currently underway are plowing, sowing, and weeding.  Cereal prices in the Sahelian zone are stable for the third consecutive month but up slightly from July 2014. This reported price stability could last through September, followed by a normal seasonal decline in prices between October and December. However, cereal prices will stay above the five-year average.

 Households in the southern part of the country should continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity Source: FEWS NET

between now and October and beyond in other parts of the This map shows relevant current acute food insecurity country owing, mainly, to the various crop-producing outcomes for emergency decision-making. It does not activities underway. The improvement in pastoral conditions necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. For more on the food insecurity severity scale, go to: with the current steady new pasture growth and the recovery www.fews.net/foodinsecurityscale. of livestock are boosting pastoral incomes and milk availability.  There will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels of food insecurity in the Western Sahel through September due to the below-average harvests from the 2014/2015 growing season and influx of IDPs as a result of the conflict with Boko Haram. However, the upcoming harvests and growing food availability and food access will improve food consumption, bringing down food insecurity to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) levels beginning in October. SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR

Source: FEWS NET

FEWS NET CHAD FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net Government.

CHAD Food Security Outlook July through December 2015

NATIONAL OVERVIEW Most likely estimated food security outcomes for July through September 2015 Current situation

The late start-of-season delayed crop planting activities in the southern part of the country, but the moderate to heavy rain in the month of July helped to increase farming activities. There was also a fairly good spatial-temporal distribution of rainfall in the latter part of July. Plowing, crop planting activities, and field maintenance work (clean-up and weeding) continue.

There is a relatively good supply of pasture, which is effectively meeting the needs of livestock. However, there are lower levels of natural vegetation than at the same time last year due to the late start-of-season. Seasonal lakes and ponds are two thirds full and are normally meeting animal watering needs. As a result, livestock are in fairly good physical condition.

The progress of the 2015 growing season in the Ouaddaï, Bata, and Wadi Fira regions of the country’s Sahelian zone is raising some Source: FEWS NET concern, where cumulative rainfall totals are already below-average (Figure 1). However, as was the case last year, there were successful Most likely estimated food security outcomes for widespread crop planting activities in the Ouaddaï region, spurred by October through December 2015 the rainfall activity between the middle and end of July, where approximately 60 percent of cropping areas have been planted primarily in pearl millet, peanuts, sesame, and, to a lesser extent, sorghum. The growing season in other parts of the Sahelian zone is more or less on track. The main farming activities currently underway across this area are ongoing crop planting activities and plowing.

Markets in the southern part of the country are still well-stocked with food products, particularly cereals. There is adequate cereal availability on retail markets from remaining large trader inventories at both the wholesale and retail level. Supplies on these markets will be better than on assembly markets until the upcoming harvest. There is a high market demand for maize, pearl millet, sesame, and peanuts. Pearl millet prices in Moundou, for example, are up sharply from June 2014, fueled by high demand. Prices for cash crops (peanuts and sesame) on the Doba market have also increased. Prices for livestock are on the rise, driven up by the heightened demand for Source: FEWS NET an average bull at this time of year for plowing. Market supplies of small ruminants are limited with agropastoralists busy working their fields.

There is currently a fairly large supply of cereals in the Sahelian zone, in line with the high demand for the observance of Ramadan. There are average steady inter and intra-regional trade flows. The largest flow of cereal trade originates in Sila, which is a major crop-producing area. The cereal crops are assembled into bulk shipments in Abéché and Biltine for transport to East and West . There are also cereal transfers from Abdi (Ouaddaï) to other regions or departments (Oum-Hadjer, Mangalmé, and Ati). Thus, the cereal market in Abdi is doing a brisk business with wholesale traders from Biltine and Oum-Hadjer (East Batha). There is an especially high demand for pearl millet, which is normal.

Supplies on markets in the western reaches of the Sahel are low as a result of the poor yields from cereal crops for 2014/2015 and the pressure from refugees and returnees on the host population. The Bol market is posting the highest prices. Current prices for maize range from 260 to 280 CFAF/kg, which is 30 percent above the five-year average. According to traders, there is reportedly no foreign demand due to the disruptions caused by the conflict with Boko Haram.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook July through December 2015

There is a regular flow of cross-border trade between Chad Figure 1. Cumulative rainfall anomalies (ARC2) for the and Sudan, with cereal transfers from crop-producing areas period from June 22nd through July 21, 2015, in mm of Sila and Assoungha. There are large shipments of sorghum to Sudan from Kerfi, Tissi, and Amdoukhoun. There is also reportedly some demand for exports of sesame and peanuts to that neighboring country. The main imports from Sudan are sugar, pasta, wheat flour, and dates.

Cattle exports to Nigeria are still limited on account of the the Boko Haram conflict. The only other exports are reportedly informal exports to Sudan. There is an ongoing flow of sheep and camel exports to Libya, with large numbers of animals beginning to pass through the northern Borkou Ennedi Tibesti area. Livestock prices on local markets are starting to rise, fueled by a reportedly low supply and normal seasonal demand, boosted by demand for the observance of Ramadan.

Refugees from the Central African Republic are receiving monthly supplies of food and nonfood assistance to meet their food needs, including items such as sorghum, green peas, oil, salt, etc. Returnees are furnished with one food voucher per person valued at 6,000 CFAF. The OIM (the International Organization for Migration) is in charge of targeting recipients for this assistance prior to its distribution. The FAO and its partner, the NGO Initiative Humanitaire pour le Développement Local (IHDL), have provided certain households of refugees with sorghum, maize, peanut, and rice seeds for crop production to help them become self-sufficient. Source: NOAA/CPC On the whole, most household food consumption is limited to wild-growing vegetables, wild plant foods, tubers, and, to a lesser extent, cereals. There are still available market supplies of cereals for the current lean season, when market purchase is a much more important source of food access Figure 2. Projected trends in cumulative rainfall in Ouaddaï based on to meet food needs, but quantities are limited rainfall figures for 2015 to date and prices are fluctuating. Though the food security situation in just about all parts of the country is problematic at this time of year, there has been a slight improvement in conditions in certain pastoral areas in the western part of the country (northern and the BEG area) with the good availability of milk in these areas. Households in southern Bahr el Ghazal, , southern Kanem, Djourf al Amar (Sila), Biltine, and Guera (, Mangalme, and Melfi) are still having difficulty meeting their food needs with the depletion of their food stocks, the late start of the growing season, the rising Source: USGS/FEWS NET prices of cereals, and the poor pastoral conditions in these areas.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook July through December 2015

Assumptions

The most likely food security scenario for July through December 2015 is based on the following assumptions on nationwide conditions:

 There have already been major disruptions to the 2015 rainy season in certain parts of southern and eastern Chad. Looking ahead, seasonal forecasts for the central and western parts of the country are predicting average to above-average levels of cumulative rainfall in large areas of the country for the rest of the season. However, forecasts for the eastern part of the country are showing poorer conditions, where cumulative rainfall totals are expected to be below-average. The average to above-average rainfall in the central and western reaches of the country between now and October could reverse the rainfall deficits observed at the beginning of the season, though there will be more severe rainfall deficits in eastern areas of the country (Figure 2).  There are currently average levels of pasture in the southern part of the country, where there should be a further slight improvement in conditions in spite of the reported dry spells since the beginning of the season. There are no initial signs of any unusual desert locust problem and, based on the good seasonal outlook, there should be good levels of new pasture growth for 2015. There is virtually no fresh pasture in the Sahelian zone and the stocks of fodder amassed by certain pastoralists are starting to be depleted. The rains will improve conditions between now and October, but there will be very little new pasture growth in the eastern part of the Sahelian zone.  Livestock will continue to recover with the improvement in the condition of pastures. They should be in normal physical shape and will have easy access to water readily available in seasonal lakes and ponds and backwater streams.  On the whole, there will be an adequate supply of farm labor during the current high-season for farming activities. Wage rates in most of the country should be comparable to figures for the same time last year. Depending on the area, a good worker could perform two to three rounds of weeding, pocketing 1000 to 1500 CFAF or more for each day of work. The only exception is in the Lac area, where competition for this source of income from the growing supply of labor with the massive presence of refugees and returnees from Nigeria will drive down daily wage rates.  The conflict in northeastern Nigeria is still severely disrupting marketing channels and limiting all trading activities between the two neighboring countries. According to traders, the alternate route through Niger via Lake Chad established by Chadian traders to move their animals will remain abandoned due to the attacks by Boko Haram in the Diffa region (of Niger).  Shipments of fresh crops as of October will improve market cereal supplies. However, cross-border trade flows in the western, northern, and southern parts of the country will probably continue to be disrupted by the conflicts and civil security situation in Nigeria, Libya, and the Central African Republic until at least December. There will be a continued strong market demand for cereals through October, during the lean season, until the upcoming harvests for the main growing season. Demand will slow as of October, in line with normal seasonal trends, as farming households draw on their stocks of home-grown crops. However, there could continue to be a stronger than usual market demand for cereals between now and December in receiving areas for IDPs from the Central African Republic (in the southern part of the country) and the conflict with Boko Haram (in the Lake Chad area).  The current stability in cereal prices in most crop-producing areas could last through October with the regular flow of supplies to local markets. There should be a normal seasonal decline in prices as of October with the arrival of the first fresh crops on local markets, boosting market supplies. There will be relatively normal local supplies of livestock with the regular flow of supplies from different source areas.  With the depletion of their fodder stocks, most agropastoral households will continue selling off animals through the month of August to thin their livestock herds. With the border closures, there is a steadily growing flow of domestic trade. There will be a limited volume of cattle exports to Nigeria on account of the problems with Boko Haram in that country. There are still regular exports of sheep and camels to Libya, with large numbers of animals passing through the northern Borkou Ennedi Tibesti area. There will be a continued flow of informal exports to Sudan.  There will be a growing demand for livestock between September and December for the Feast of Tabaski and the year-end holiday season. There will be a higher than usual demand for the celebration of Tabaski in September,

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CHAD Food Security Outlook July through December 2015

mainly for sheep. After September, there will be a more or less normal growth in demand, driven by preparations for the year-end holiday season.  Livestock prices could start to fall with the last purchases of animals for Ramadan and may stay relatively low through August/September, while the physical condition of animals gradually improves with the growing supply of pasture. Movements in prices will follow normal seasonal trends through December, though there will be an atypical surge in prices in September during the celebration of Tabaski. Terms of trade for livestock/cereals will stay in favor of pastoralists in most areas.

Most likely food security outcomes

July through September: The situation for households in the southern part of the country has improved since the middle of July with the first harvests of early-maturing crops, as is oftentimes the case in a typical year. On the whole, poor farming households across the country will continue to meet their food needs through market purchase with income from farm labor, petty trading, and other normal activities in their particular livelihood zone.

Livestock prices for pastoralists, particularly for small ruminants, will stay below normal through August due to the poor physical condition of their animals and the continued border closures. The new pasture growth as of August/September and the physical recovery of livestock will improve pastoral incomes and milk supplies. While households in most parts of the country will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity, those in certain localized areas such as Bahr El Gazal, Lac, Sila, Kanem, and Guera will continue to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels of acute food insecurity, with their low food stocks and incomes making it more difficult for them to meet their nonfood needs.

October through December: The main harvest beginning in October will further improve the staple food access of farming and agropastoral households. Food security conditions will be stable throughout the harvest season, even in eastern areas of the country expecting a possible shortfall in crop production due to the projected poor distribution of rainfall in these areas. Though it may be rather limited, their crop production will suffice to get them through at least the month of December. The improvement in the physical condition of their animals and heightened demand for livestock for the celebration of Tabaski and the year-end holiday season will help give pastoral households market access for the purchasing of food supplies. In general, most households across the country will continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity, though conditions in the Lake Chad area will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) with the continuing waves of population displacements in that area, driven by the conflict with Boko Haram.

AREAS OF CONCERN

Agropastoral and fishing zone in the Lac Region (Livelihood Zone 08)

Current situation

This year’s growing season is already behind schedule. Normally, pearl millet crops will have already sprouted by July 20th at the latest, which was not the case this year. This year, crop planting activities were delayed by a number of factors, including the late start of the rainy season and the security situation created by the conflict with Boko Haram. Cumulative rainfall totals to date, since the start of the rainy season in June, are slightly below previous normal averages for June and July. However, the recent rains in the second half of July are helping the growing season get back on track.

Irrigated maize crops for the third growing season are in the heading stage. The main farming activities are the planting of crops and the irrigation of polder areas. However, there is a serious problem impeding the irrigation of polder areas with the cost of a liter of gasoline up to 1,500 CFAF (from 600 to 650 CFAF before the crisis), which is limiting the number of functioning power-driven pumps.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook July through December 2015

Pastures are in visibly poorer than usual condition. Figure 3. Cumulative rainfall totals as of the end of the third However, animals are presently in satisfactory physical week of July 2015 in Wayi, in the Lac Region condition, grazing on irrigated crop residues and the sparse supplies of natural forage from the current rainy season. The supply of pasture is limited to new grass shoots and residues from harvests of cold-season crops, supplemented by leaves and tree pods. There are no signs or reports of any animal diseases. Animal health conditions have clearly improved with the ongoing monitoring and vaccination programs operated by veterinary health workers. Transhumant pastoralists are preparing to leave island areas with the beginning of the rainy season and the return of biting insects, which are starting to invade island areas with the onset of the rains.

There is a larger supply of farm labor with the influx of IDPs from Nigeria, while the completion of field clean-up and plowing work and the construction of basins is reducing the amount of available work. Farm workers in Bol are being paid a daily wage of 1,500 CFAF compared with 2,000 CFAF in an average year, 25 percent less than usual.

There is poorer than usual cereal availability on local Source: USGS/FEWS NET markets on account of the cereal production deficits in this region in October 2014 and March 2015. There are reports of disruptions in trade flows by security threats from Boko Haram. As a result, the Bol market is less active and business is slow. The flow of trade is beginning to pick up, particularly trade in cash crops. The Lac region supplies cereals to the Mao market in Kanem and the Moussoro market in Bahr el Ghazal, but there is a below-normal volume of trade with the production deficit in the Lac region.

The combined effects of the normal tightening of available market cereal supplies and the poor security situation have driven up cereal prices on the Bol market since last year, where maize was selling for 260 CFAF/kg in June 2015 compared with 220 CFAF/kg in June 2014, which is 33 percent above the five-year average. In contrast, prices for cash crops are down from last month with the ongoing harvests of off-season crops.

There is a continuing influx of refugees and returnees from Nigeria, but there are fewer new arrivals than in 2014. It is extremely difficult to assess the situation of this population with many of these returnees rejoining their families, which can strain household resources. The onset of the rainy season and lack of shelter are major concerns.

Most households are currently buying their food supplies on the market. With the longer than usual lean season in farming areas, the added needs of populations displaced by the conflict with Boko Haram, and the atypical rises in cereal prices, it is difficult for poor households to afford to purchase food. Certain households still have stores of dry-season crops, particularly cash crops (such as onions, wheat, and hilbé), but expenses for the growing of rainfed crops and the observance of Ramadan have severely depleted these stocks.

Most poor households are still having difficulty meeting their basic nonfood needs.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook July through December 2015

Assumptions The most likely food security scenario for July through December 2015 in the Lac Region is based on the following assumptions in addition to the assumptions on nationwide conditions:

 Crop production: Based on seasonal Figure 4. Projected trends in cumulative rainfall in Wayi, in the Lac forecasts for average to above-average Region, based on rainfall figures for 2015 to date levels of rainfall, the July and October rains could reverse current cumulative rainfall deficits (Figure 4). However, there are still likely to be localized production deficits.  Animal production: There could be measurable new pasture growth in the next few weeks with the definitive start of the rainy season. There will also be available supplies of crop residues. There will be a normal deterioration in the physical condition of livestock and Source: USGS/FEWS NET decline in milk availability through the end of August. As usual, herd movements by transhumant livestock will begin in August, concluding in November. There will be a good supply of pasture and adequate numbers of animal watering holes, with large-scale milk production as of August-September.  Cereal availability: There will be below-average cereal supplies until the upcoming October harvest. As is normally the case, there will be harvests of tubers, vegetables, and green maize in August-September, with the main harvest of early-maturing cereal crops in October-November. There will be adequate market supplies from local production and trade flows through December.  Cereal demand: As usual, there will be a steadily growing market demand from households and wholesale traders, peaking in July-August, followed by a normal decline in household demand with the upcoming harvest in October.  Cereal prices: The tightening of available market cereal supplies as a result of the security situation will keep cereal prices on the Bol market relatively high Figure 5. Retail prices for maize on the Bol market through July 2015 for the next few months. Cereal prices are currently already well above the five-year average and will not come down until the harvest of hot off- season crops in August. There will be a real drop in prices between August and November, during the harvest season.  Livestock prices: Livestock prices in this region will continue to fluctuate, most likely, trending downwards with the closure of the border with Nigeria and the presence of transhumant herds. However, the slight improvement in the physical condition of animals with the recovery of pastures and the budding demand for the celebration of Tabaski and the year-end holiday Source: FEWS NET season will cause prices to inch upwards as of the middle of August.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook July through December 2015

 Wage labor: There will be below-average levels of income from farm labor due to the competition for this work. The presence of refugees and other IDPs has already created an unprecedentedly large workforce, despite which there are continuing population movements into the area. The daily wage rate is 1500 CFAF, compared with the normal rate of pay of 2000 CFAF. There will also be below-average earnings from construction work beginning in November with the large numbers of refugees and returnees from Nigeria inflating the supply of labor.  Remittances: There will be growing amounts of income from this source, particularly with so many men, especially youths, currently heading to the city. The security problems with Boko Haram in this area are also responsible for some departures. There will be the usual flow of migration by poor households to large cities in November and December after the end of the harvest.  Sale of wood: There will be no change in this source of income with enforcement efforts by the Forestry Service and the growing scarcity of wood in peri-urban areas preventing households from ramping up this activity as a coping strategy.  IDPs from the conflict with Boko Haram: These displaced persons are receiving assistance from the humanitarian community. They will continue to get fairly regular deliveries of food assistance, mainly from the WFP and other humanitarian organizations. The number of IDPs continues to mount as Boko Haram continues to commit atrocities in and around the region, with serious consequences for local populations.

Most likely food security outcomes Poor households affected by shortfalls in harvest of 2014 rainy season crops and 2014/2015 cold dry season crops are also contending with atypical rises in cereal prices. The deterioration in their food security situation has been exacerbated by the influx of refugees, returnees, and internally displaced persons due to the conflict with Boko Haram. Thus, conditions in this area will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) between July and September, with most poor households in this area unable to meet their basic nonfood needs. Very poor and poor households will rely mainly on home-grown crops from harvests of early-maturing cereal crops and tubers between October and November 2015, which will significantly help improve their cereal access. The coping capacity of poor households will be strengthened by their food access from other sources (wild plant foods, in-kind payments, and gifts/assistance), which will work to their advantage. Thus, most households will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity between October and December.

Southwestern rice-growing zone in the Mayo-Kebbi Est Region (Livelihood Zone 02)

Current situation

The first round of crop planting activities normally taking place in April did not start up until the second dekad of May and involved mostly red sorghum and peanut crops in Kabia, Mayo Boneye, and departments. While early rainfall numbers did not allow for widespread planting activities, the rainfall activity in July helped expand the area sown in crops. After a poor start-of-season with the lag in the beginning of the rains in June, conditions in Bongor recovered in July, where rainfall numbers are currently up from 2014. Planting activities for rainfed rice crops are still underway, along with the first round of weeding for late-season varieties of sorghum and rice.

Cereal supplies (supplies of locally grown rice, red sorghum, and berbère) on markets in this area are currently lower than normal on account of the poor crop production for 2014. However, imports from Cameroon are helping to meet local demand, particularly for red sorghum and rice. There is a strong demand, fueled by the earlier than usual depletion of household food stocks after the poor crop yields for 2014. This atypically high demand has driven prices above figures for the same period in 2014. Thus, prices for red sorghum, ranging from 160 to 165 CFAF/kg between May and June of 2014, are currently up to 175 CFAF/kg.

The availability of pasture has improved since the mid-July rains. Transhumant pastoralists have started to head back to central areas of the country. However, there are reports of massive sales of small ruminants on weekly markets on account of the poor rice production for last season. The loss of foreign markets for livestock in Nigeria and Cameroon has driven down prices. Thus, an average male goat selling for 17,000 CFAF between May and June of 2014 is currently trading for between 15,500 and 14,000 CFAF. Sheep prices are still stable. The premature depletion of the food stocks of large numbers of households is making them completely market dependent at this time.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook July through December 2015

The delay in the start of the rains has reduced demand for labor and, thus, household incomes. With the lag in the definitive start-of-season, there is currently very little farm work, which is normally a rather important source of income at this time of year. Sales of woven straw fencing and fuelwood are also limited due to the shortage of raw materials (grass) or lack of dry wood and grass during the rainy season. As a result, very poor and poor households are more reliant than usual on credit sales and community assistance (gifts) for their food supplies until the upcoming harvest.

Assumptions

The most likely food security scenario for July through December 2015 in Mayo Kebbi Est is based on the following assumptions in addition to the assumptions on nationwide conditions:  Continued average to above-average levels of cumulative rainfall, as predicted in the seasonal outlook, should further improve the poor start-of-season conditions, ensuring sufficient rain for crops to properly mature.  The good seasonal outlook is expected to translate into average crop yields for the main growing season, with harvests beginning as of October. This will help improve staple food availability for households and on markets. Households will have home-grown crops for the replenishment of their cereal stocks. They will use income from the sale of their crops to rebuild their cereal stocks, as well as their poultry flocks and herds of small ruminants. They will have easier access to food and income and, thus, will be able to meet their other nonfood needs.  There will be an ongoing and mounting market demand for cereals from local households, peaking, as usual, in August. This household demand will start to falter between October and November with the main harvest. There will also be a steadily growing institutional demand and demand for exports from large-scale traders as the harvest progresses.  There will be continued normal rises in cereal prices throughout the lean season, until the first harvests of early crops towards the beginning of August. The normal decline in prices will begin with the first widespread harvests in October.  The loss of foreign markets in Nigeria and Cameroon has brought down livestock prices and there is not enough local demand to ensure the same amounts of income for pastoralists and livestock exporters. This will continue to be the case through the end of the year. Prices for sheep, which are still stable, are expected to rise in the weeks leading up the celebration of Tabaski in mid-September. There will be another slight rise in livestock prices as of November, triggered by preparations for the year-end holidays. Livestock sales will pick up with the physical recovery of animals towards the month of October, generating substantial amounts of income, though less than in previous years with the limited volume of exports to neighboring countries, particularly Nigeria.  There will be a normal supply of farm work constituting the main source of income between July and October. There will be a typical supply of construction work and normal levels of income as of October with the end of the rainy season.

Most likely food security outcomes

The earlier than usual depletion of household food stocks in the aftermath of the poor 2014/2015 growing season is making poor households dependent on market purchase for their food supplies longer than usual, while staple food prices are staying above-average and expected to peak in August. Poor households will resort to borrowing in order to buy enough food to eat during the lean season between July and September. The problems faced by poor households in attempting to meet their food needs are preventing them from fulfilling all their essential nonfood needs, which will keep them Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between July and September. As of September, the availability of early crops will help stabilize cereal prices, with the main harvest beginning in October further improving food availability and food access. Between October and December, the large availability of home-grown crops will enable most households to fully meet all their basic food and nonfood needs, putting acute food insecurity in this area at Minimal (IPC Phase 1) levels.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook July through December 2015

EVENTS THAT COULD CHANGE THE OUTLOOK

Table 1. Possible events over the next six months that could change the outlook Zone Event Impact on food security conditions National An earlier than usual end to the rainy season, This would reduce farm, pastoral, and wage below-average levels of cumulative rainfall, or a incomes and pose a real problem for the rebuilding poor distribution of rainfall of household food stocks, creating food security issues in affected areas. Western Escalation in the conflict with Boko Haram and The effects of the first waves of newcomers Sahel (Lac another massive influx of IDPs, refugees, and already put a strain on many host households and Region) returnees had a visible impact on food prices, causing them to skyrocket. There will be a sharp deterioration in food security conditions all across the region with another massive influx of newcomers. Southern Devastating floods in rice-growing plain areas This would sharply reduce rice production, which is Chad the main type of cereal production in this area, which is virtually totally dependent on these crops for its supplies of other staple commodities.

ABOUT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT To project food security outcomes over a six-month period, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to develop scenarios predicting food security outcomes. Typically, FEWS NET reports the most likely scenario. Learn more here.

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