Political Developments, 2020
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01 Moore article.qxp_Admin 69-1 22/02/2021 14:59 Page 1 Administration, vol. 69, no. 1 (2021), pp. 1–22 doi: 10.2478/admin-2021-0001 Political developments, 2020 David Hugh Moore Department of Political Science, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland Covid-19 pandemic The Covid-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2), had a profound effect on Irish society, politics and the economy in 2020. The first reported case in the Republic of Ireland was on 29 February 2020. Within three weeks there were confirmed cases in all counties (see Cullen, 2020). On 11 March an elderly patient in Naas General Hospital in Co. Kildare became Ireland’s first fatality of the virus (see Thomas, 2020a). On 12 March, following a meeting with the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET)1, the government announced a series of measures designed to tackle the spread of the virus. The headline measure taken was to close all schools, colleges and childcare facilities (see Leahy et al., 2020a). On 15 March, after public outcry over videos posted on social media showing revellers at pubs not engaging in social distancing, and following discussions with the Licensed Vintners Association and the Vintners’ Federation of Ireland, the government ordered all bars and public houses to shut (see Carswell & Bray, 2020). On 24 March, with the numbers of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Ireland continuing to 1 NPHET, created on 27 January 2020 within the Department of Health, provides guidance on the development and implementation of a strategy to contain the Covid-19 pandemic. It also helps to coordinate the healthcare sector’s response to Covid-19 across Ireland (see Boland, 2020). 1 01 Moore article.qxp_Admin 69-1 22/02/2021 14:59 Page 2 2 DAVID HUGH MOORE rise, more restrictions were imposed, with non-essential retail ordered to close (see Murray, 2020). Three days later, the government announced a stay-at-home order, banning all non-essential travel and contact with people outside of one’s household. Further, the elderly and those with underlying health conditions were told to cocoon (see Leahy, 2020a). The lockdown measures introduced by the government led to a severe recession as well as an unprecedented rise in the unemployment rate, rising from 4.8 per cent in January to 28.2 per cent by April (see Burke-Kennedy, 2020). In response, the government introduced the Covid-19 Pandemic Unemployment Payment and the Temporary Covid-19 Wage Subsidy Scheme. These aimed to both ease the hardship that people were facing having lost their jobs as well as stimulate economic growth (see Wall, 2020). Further to this economic hardship, the pandemic had a profound impact on society. The Junior and Leaving Certificates were cancelled, as well as cultural and sporting events throughout the year. Figure 1: Daily reported Covid-19 cases, 2020 Source: Dong et al. (2020). 01 Moore article.qxp_Admin 69-1 22/02/2021 14:59 Page 3 Political developments, 2020 3 Figure 2: Daily reported Covid-19 deaths, 2020 Source: Dong et al. (2020). Figure 3: Total reported Covid-19 cases, 2020 Source: Dong et al. (2020). 01 Moore article.qxp_Admin 69-1 22/02/2021 14:59 Page 4 4 DAVID HUGH MOORE Figure 4: Total reported Covid-19 deaths, 2020 Source: Dong et al. (2020). By mid April NPHET had declared that the growth curve of Covid-19 had been flattened (see Figures 1–4; Thomas, 2020b). As Figures 1 and 2 show, the rate of newly reported cases and deaths declined throughout May and June. Society and the economy gradually opened through the government’s phased reopening strategy, known as the Roadmap for Reopening Society & Business. This started incrementally on 18 May with the travel limit being slightly lifted from two to five kilometres and individuals being permitted to meet outdoors in groups of four. Over the following weeks, restrictions gradually eased (see Kelly & Cullen, 2020). By 29 June most of the retail and catering sector had reopened, albeit at limited capacity and with certain restrictions (see Gallagher, 2020). As Figure 1 demonstrates, the incidence of Covid-19 in Ireland continued to decline throughout July. In August there was a slight increase in cases. In counties Kildare, Laois and Offaly clusters in meat factories led to a significant increase in the incidence of Covid-19. On 7 August an Taoiseach Micheál Martin, TD, announced that the three counties were to be placed into a lockdown for two weeks, effective from midnight. On 21 August these restrictions were lifted for Laois and Offaly but extended for 01 Moore article.qxp_Admin 69-1 22/02/2021 14:59 Page 5 Political developments, 2020 5 another two weeks in Kildare. However, schools in Kildare were to reopen as planned (see Carswell & Power, 2020). The restrictions in Kildare were lifted on 31 August with immediate effect (see Cullen & Horgan-Jones, 2020). On 2 September, with cases still trending upward, the government launched a new five-level framework, entitled Living with Covid. The entire country was placed in Level 2 of the framework. Due to the incidence rate in Dublin, it was placed in Level 2 but bars and public houses that did not serve food were not permitted to reopen (see McGee et al., 2020). On 18 September Dublin was placed in Level 3 (see Burns, 2020). On 5 October the government moved the entire country into Level 3 (see Dwyer, 2020). On 19 October, following a continued increase in the incidence of Covid 19, the government moved the entire country into Level 5. These restrictions would take effect on 21 October and would last six weeks until 1 December (see Leahy et al., 2020b). Following this lockdown, Ireland’s incidence rate became the lowest in the EU (see McGlynn, 2020). A third wave of Covid-19 arrived after restrictions eased on 1 December. A combination of the reopening of non-essential retail, restaurants and bars that sell food, and increased mixing between households led to a spike in cases. On 1 December Ireland reported 254 new cases of Covid-19. By Christmas Day this had risen to 1,025. On 24 December the country was placed into Level 5 restrictions with some amendments. On 31 December Ireland recorded a then-record 1,620 newly reported cases of Covid-19. That same day the country entered a full Level 5 lockdown until at least January 2021 (see Bray & Cullen, 2020). On 26 December the first shipment of the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine arrived in Ireland. On 29 December the first person in Ireland was vaccinated. Dissolution of the thirty-second Dáil and the 2020 general election The results of the 2016 general election and subsequent government formation for the thirty-second Dáil had led to a historic ‘confidence and supply’ agreement between Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and seven Independent TDs. This left the government with a small working majority. Over the period of the thirty-second Dáil, this working majority declined with Peter Fitzgerald’s resignation from the Fine Gael parliamentary party, Frances Fitzgerald’s election to the European Parliament, and Dara Murphy’s resignation from the Dáil 01 Moore article.qxp_Admin 69-1 22/02/2021 14:59 Page 6 6 DAVID HUGH MOORE to join the European People’s Party (see Johnston, 2020; Moore, D. H., 2020). This meant that the working majority had become so thin that the government was no longer viable. On 14 January, with the prospect of losing a vote of no confidence, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, TD, requested that President Michael D. Higgins dissolve the thirty- second Dáil. That same day Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage Eoghan Murphy, TD, signed a polling order for a general election to take place on Saturday 8 February, the first general election to take place on a Saturday since 1918 (see Field, 2020). Despite the significance of the eventual result, the election campaign itself was largely uneventful. The main issues of the campaign were healthcare, the housing crisis and homelessness. To a lesser extent, the economy, climate change and Brexit also mattered to the electorate (see Leahy, 2020b). There were seven debates on national television: three on RTÉ One, three on Virgin Media One, and one on TG4. The initial debate drew controversy for two reasons. Firstly, Sinn Féin Leader Mary Lou McDonald, TD, was excluded from the debate despite Sinn Féin polling in the low twenties. This drew accusations of anti-Sinn-Féin bias in the media. Indeed, in subsequent debates, Sinn Féin threatened legal action if Ms McDonald was not included. Secondly, Fine Gael senator and election candidate Catherine Noone drew criticism after a series of derogatory remarks regarding Varadkar’s debate performance and character were recorded and reported (see Field, 2020). During the election campaign, Sinn Féin councillor Paddy Holohan was forced to apologise to Leo Varadkar after he made homophobic and racist comments regarding Mr Varadkar on his podcast. Mr Varadkar accepted the apology but stated that Ireland needed to do more to prevent people from minority backgrounds experiencing racism. A few days later Mr Holohan was suspended from the party after he claimed on his podcast that some women were engaging in consensual sex with men and subsequently blackmailing them. As Mr Holohan was not a general election candidate and had been swiftly suspended by Sinn Féin, this did not appear to have implications on the election (see Hosford, 2020). The results of the general election, shown in Figures 5 and 6, reflected the final Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times poll of the campaign, with Sinn Féin taking the largest number of first-preference votes, with 24.5 per cent.