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Investing with Confidence investing with confidence UNDERSTANDING POLITICAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE 21st CENTURY Kevin W. Lu Gero Verheyen Srilal M. Perera Delivered by The World Bank e-library to: The World Bank IP : 192.86.100.29 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:35:36 (c) The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank Delivered by The World Bank e-library to: The World Bank IP : 192.86.100.29 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:35:36 (c) The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank Investing with Confidence Delivered by The World Bank e-library to: The World Bank IP : 192.86.100.29 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:35:36 (c) The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank Delivered by The World Bank e-library to: The World Bank IP : 192.86.100.29 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:35:36 (c) The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank Investing with Confidence Understanding Political Risk Management in the 21st Century Kevin W. Lu, Gero Verheyen, and Srilal M. Perera Editors Delivered by The World Bank e-library to: The World Bank IP : 192.86.100.29 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:35:36 Washington, D.C. (c) The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank © 2009 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone 202-473-1000 Internet www.worldbank.org E-mail [email protected] All rights reserved. 1 2 3 4 12 11 10 09 This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: 978-750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN-13: 978-0-8213-7893-9 eISBN: 978-0-8213-7981-3 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7893-9 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Investing with confidence : understanding political risk management in the 21st century / Kevin W. Lu, Gero Verheyen, and Srilal M. Perera, editors. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-8213-7893-9 (alk. paper) -- ISBN 978-0-8213-7981-3 (ebk.) 1. Country risk. 2. Investments, Foreign. 3. Risk management. I. Lu, Kevin W. II. Verheyen, Gero. III. Perera,Delivered Srilal by The Mohan. World Bank e-library to: The World Bank IP : 192.86.100.29 HG4538.I65438 2009 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:35:36 332.67'3--dc22 2009032582 (c) The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank Contents Preface . ix Foreword . xiii Abbreviations. xix Part I. Global Finance and Potential for Political Risk Insurance Toward a Greater Depoliticization of Investment Disputes: The Roles of ICSID and MIGA . 2 Ibrahim F. I. Shihata The Global Financial Crisis and the Future of International Financial Institutions . 36 James Bond Principles and Development of Islamic Finance. 43 Zamir Iqbal Sovereign Wealth Funds, Financial Crisis, and Management of Noncommercial Risk . 60 Roxanna Faily, Kevin W. Lu, and Shuilin Wang The Changing Face of Political Risk. 81 Patrick Garver Delivered by The World Bank e-library to: The World Bank IP : 192.86.100.29 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:35:36 v (c) The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank vi CONTENTS Part II. Advancements in Recurring Issues and New Dimensions for Political Risk Insurance Linking Political Risk Insurance Pricing and Portfolio Management with Economic Capital Modeling: A Multilateral Perspective?. 90 Mikael Sundberg, Faisal Quraishi, and Sidhartha Choudhury Issues Affecting Pricing in the Political Risk Insurance Market, and a Probabilistic Approach to Measuring Country Risk in a Political Risk Insurance Portfolio . 115 Edward Coppola Public Sector Pricing:How to Balance a Public Mandate with Adequate Returns for Political Risk . 129 Joanne Palmer Expropriation and the Share Pledge Dilemma: An Assessment of Individual Rights and Compensation Claims. 146 Srilal M. Perera Emerging Issues in the Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards . 163 Joseph R. Profaizer To Risk or Not to Risk? The State’s Perspective of Investor–State Dispute Resolution at the 20th Anniversary of MIGA . 173 Ignacio Torterola and Ronan McHugh Calculating Damages:Arbitrators, Counsel, and Experts Can Do Better Than They Have in the Past. 196 Andrea Saldarriaga and Mark Kantor An Approach to Financial Valuation for Arbitration Awards . 238 Faisal A. Quraishi Concluding Comments . 253 Gero VerheyenDelivered and Srilal by The M. World Perera Bank e-library to: The World Bank IP : 192.86.100.29 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:35:36 (c) The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank CONTENTS vii Appendixes I Previous Volumes in This Series . 259 II More About MIGA . 272 Index . 277 Delivered by The World Bank e-library to: The World Bank IP : 192.86.100.29 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:35:36 (c) The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank Delivered by The World Bank e-library to: The World Bank IP : 192.86.100.29 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:35:36 (c) The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank Preface Investing with Confidence: Understanding Political Risk Management in the 21st Century is based on papers presented at a symposium held on December 4, 2008, under the joint auspices of the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) of the World Bank Group and the Karl F. Landegger Program in International Business Diplomacy at the School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University. This was the sixth such symposium, held biennially, and brought together almost 200 senior practitioners from the political risk insurance (PRI) industry, including investors, insurers, brokers, lenders, academics, and members of the legal community. The 2008 symposium also celebrated the 20th anniversary of the founding of MIGA in April 1988, and covered a number of important topics, including calculating compensation arising from claims; an Argentine perspective on that country’s ongoing arbitration proceed- ings; pricing methodology from private, public, and multilateral per- spectives; Islamic finance transactions; and sovereign wealth funds. In addition to papers presented at the symposium, the editors have chosen to include a number of papers that complement the gen- eral topics that defined the discussion, and that provide a historical context for MIGA’s evolution as an important player in the political risk insurance arena. The inclusion of a paper published in 1986 by the late Dr. Ibrahim Shihata, the former Senior Vice President and General Counsel of MIGA, on the roles of MIGA and the Interna- tional Center for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) offers the reader a foundation for the types of issues often faced by investors when considering the risks involved with undertaking a significant investment in a foreign country. Delivered by The World Bank e-library to: In an effort to look at newThe areas World in Bank which PRI can play an impor- tant role, the symposium’s agendaIP : 192.86.100.29 included presentations on Islamic Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:35:36 finance and sovereign wealth funds. Project financing through the medium of Islamic finance has existed for some time now, and has ix (c) The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank xPREFACE been served by PRI providers; however, only recently has PRI been used as a risk mitigator for a large infrastructure project in Djibouti under an Islamic financing structure. The success in putting together this project opens the door for PRI to support future complex proj- ects with Islamic financing. Sovereign wealth funds have gained prominence in recent years as a result of the rate at which they have grown, as well as from the challenge issued by the president of the World Bank for the funds to dedicate 1 percent of their assets to development causes. With the value of the funds estimated at $3 trillion at the time, almost $30 billion would have been available for development projects. Although the financial crisis has caused the funds to lose some of their value and in some cases curtail their investment activities, as the market recovers and the fund managers begin to look for new avenues of investment, PRI can provide much needed support for new development projects. Given the unprecedented—by recent standards—financial crisis that has devastated the world financial system and extended its reach into a number of other sectors, political risk insurance has become even more relevant. At the same time, questions remain as to whether PRI really covers those risks that investors need covered the most.
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