National and International Initiatives to Reduce the Impacts of Climate Change

A Report on the Growing Contrasts Between Europe and the US

By John Van Leer For the June 18th meeting of the Broward County Climate Change Task Force My Recent Visit to Europe Reveled a Sharp Contrast with US Sustainability

Switzerland, Germany and Demark have become far more Advanced than the US in Mass Transit and Renewable Energy because of: a) Divergent Historic Roots: US frontier attitudes vs. Sustaining a limited number of resources. b) Existence of active Green political parties in Europe to advocate for Sustainability. c) Dominance of Large Corporate interests in the US who have shaped policy to favor their industries often at the expense of public benefit. Historic Notes on US Government, Auto & Petroleum Influences on Policy • Windmills pumped water & generated rural electric power nationally during late 19th and early 20th centuries. • But cheap hydro electric power from TVA and other dams constructed during FDR’s Rural Electrification Program, stunted the US wind power industry at an early stage. • Electric cars powered by lead/acid or Edison’s iron/nickel storage batteries dominated early car markets, especially for women. My great aunt Ida drove her Baker for 35 years. • The dominant manufacturer of electric cars, the Dayton Electric Car Company, was bought by General Motors and transformed into a manufacturer of starter motors, generators and other electric parts and accessories. Only it’s name DELCO survives. Historic Notes on US Government, Auto & Petroleum Influences on Policy Continued • Gasoline cars and trucks proliferated as electric starter motors with Bendix gears became reliable. • Road taxes on gas & diesel fuels were used to buy oil refining byproduct, Asphalt, and to construct first US National Highway System. Road tax collections on fuel produced a dedicated source of funding to build roads but not mass transit. This powerful economic disparity dramatically increased oil consumption and auto company profits, while mass transits waits for scraps from the transportation table. Historic Background Continued • Solar Water Heaters were installed on Florida homes during the 1920s and 1930s using a California Design. By 1940 half the Miami houses had solar water heaters. • Discovery of huge easily produced Saudi oil fields yield $4/barrel oil($0.1 production)& starts consumption binge. • FPL & other utilities drastically lower electric rates and gives free electric water heaters to developers to increase demand. “Redi-Kilowatt” add campaign born. • Solar Water heaters & windmills slowly disappear. • G.M., Firestone & Exxon buy up & remove streetcars & light rail systems, to push car & bus sales. GM’s mastermind was convicted of racketeering and fined $1 while $2 trillion of mass transit infrastructure was destroyed and European trains improved with oil taxes. • Heavy taxes on train stations stunt passenger service. • Cheap gas and roads built with gas taxes spawn endless suburbs and long distance auto commuting is born. Historic US Background Continued

• Single car families became multi-car families. • GM introduced planned obsolescence and rapid style changes to spawn “Keeping up with the Jones” demand and 2 or 3 year model trade-in cycles with extravagant styling (FINS!) Quality becomes secondary even at Chrysler where engineering & quality had been king. • Interstate Highway System established by President Eisenhower, modeled on German autobahn network. • Long haul trucking begins to replace freight trains. • Cold War spawned Nuclear Arms & Power plants. • Peak oil in lower 48 states passes unnoticed in 1971. • Arab Oil Embargo give rise to OPEC & much higher prices for gas, diesel and heating oil. (Windfall Profits) • First hints that mass oil waste was rapidly becoming problematic for the economy and for future climate. Other Effects of Cheap Fuel & Roads • Commercial high carbon aviation replaces US train travel. • Rise of industrial farming for “cheap food” with petroleum based fertilizers & insecticides plus lots of diesel fuel. • So called the “Green Revolution” impoverishes soils. • Small family farms replaced by urban sprawl and locally grown food declines along with nutrition and health. • Heavily mechanized farms grow larger to amortize expensive equipment, Corn & soy bean monocultures are subsidized by annual farm bills rather than vegetables. • Corn based feed lots, concentrated poultry and hog farms make massive water pollution and methane problems. Other Effects of Cheap Fuel & Roads Continued • Government subsidized High Fat meat and High Fructose Corn syrups spawn US obesity epidemic & health care crisis. • Long haul food shipping becomes the norm. (1,500 mile is now average distance traveled by food today) • Massive fishing gear & power trawling plus long- lines degrades ecosystems with over fishing & wholesale bi-catch and habitat destruction. Oil Embargo Shapes Carter’s Forward Looking Policies and Programs • NASA’s space program stimulated development of light weight high efficiency photovoltaic cells and arrays, as the most logical and safest power supply for space. • President Carter installed photovoltaic panels on White House roof & instituted tax credits for solar water heaters, home insulation & set the first automobile fleet mileage standards. • He also set a 55 mph national speed limit. Tight Oil Market finds a little slack • Carter’s Conservation, North Sea, North Slope and African oil production but mostly temporary increases in Saudi Oil production (before Saudi’s peak) broke OPEC’s oil embargo. • Declining oil sales revenue in Russia undermines arms buildup as Russia tries to match Regan’s rearmament and fight a costly war in Afghanistan. • Reagan and First Bush administrations adopt energy bills which give massive subsidies for oil exploration to overcome oil induced balance of trade deficits. No significant increase in total domestic production resulted. Incentives for the Search for New Domestic Oil Fail Stem Trade Deficit • Last version of “drill baby drill” fails as US extracts its own scarce known oil reserves at 6 times the global average. • Reagan removes functioning photovoltaic panels from White House & kills tax credits for conservation, and renewable energy. Regan also raises US speed limits. • Balance of trade deficits balloon, emerging solar hurt. Oblivious of Peak Oil, US Cruises • SUV developed to circumvent fleet gas mileage rules by pretending they are trucks & not really station wagons. • Bumper heights raised above international standards starting in the 1960s so they match the heights of the headlights on the flood of imported cars. • Added SUV heights and weights plus poor suspension leads to frequent roll over accidents and blowouts. • Without increases in quality or domestic auto gas mileage standards foreign auto makers gain dominant market share in USA as gas prices continue to rise. • G. W. Bush extends $4K tax credits for Hummers & Heaviest SUVs to postpone the inevitable. • The rest of the world adopts Kyoto. • Container Ships and piggy back trains boost international access to US markets. Big Box stores spread favoring cheap foreign goods, killing small stores. Renewable Energy After Peak Oil

• US has fallen at least a decade behind Europe in key solar and wind energy technology sectors and about 30 years behind in mass transit. • We might never make up the ground we lost after Carter’s head start was squandered. • Green Parties in Germany and other European countries adopt feed-in-tariffs. • Since then the renewable energy industry had been growing 40% per year in Germany and has had 80% growth this year during the “global recession”. • With half the US per capita oil use, and efficient bike & electric mass transit, rising oil prices have had much less effect on European economies. Foreign Renewable Energy Dominates

• European and Chinese manufacturers are poised to consolidate their gains in market shares in renewable energy devices. • GE manufactures Wind Turbines in Germany to ride the feed-in-tariff wave. • German Evergreen premium PV panels also made in Massachusetts with Feed in profits. • Other German Manufacturers are eager set up in Florida if we adopted feed-in-tariffs. • At the huge Inter-Solar conference in Munich, May 9, 09, showed off the extraordinarily broad variety and shear mass of the global solar business with about 1,000 exhibitors in 8 huge halls. • Multiple technical sessions were conducted at a very high level in English. • Unemployment in Bavaria is less than 4 % this year. What global recession? US Suffers for Lack of Renewable

• The “The Gateway to Green” in Miami June 11th&12th was tiny by comparison. • Seeing both shows back to back was truly sobering. • Continuing massive US oil purchases have seriously weakened the US dollar. • Slow economies and high oil prices have caused oil tankers & container ships to slow down from 35 knots to 10, to save fuel, making them more attractive targets for pirates. Solar Tracking Mechanism in Munich California Shows the Way Forward • California emphasizes efficiency and renewable power generation in homes and businesses, maintaining flat per capita demand for Electric Power, after the 1970 oil embargo, canceling out the need for a dozen massive new fossil fuel power plants. • In Florida, utilities continue to encourage demand growth and reliance on Nuclear Power, paid in advance by customers with the blessing of the “Public Service Commission”. • No banks would dare make such risky Nuclear loans, even before the recession and banking collapse. • Nuclear issues are safety, hundred thousand year half life for waste and spills plus terrorism vulnerability and inundation by rising sea levels. • With sea level rise, Florida’s coastal customer base will also decline. California Efforts Gain Traction

• California CAFE standards (followed by Florida and others) have forced federal automotive fleet fuel economy standards to match. • Coal is still available in large quantities but is dirty to produce and use. “Clean Coal” remains an oxymoron. Carbon dioxide sequestration remains an expensive idea which is largely untested. • Coal and oil should be saved for feedstock for the future petrochemical industries such as plastics & fertilizers rather than burned to make CO2. • Costs of adaptation to melting ice caps, rising and acidify oceans must be included when calculating true renewable energy budgets. Gov. Crist follows California on Climate Change The Future with Solar Water Heating • Solar Water Heaters were invented in over 100 years ago in Southern California. • In 1940 half the homes in Miami had them. • With the 30% renewable energy tax credits extended with the “bail out bill” plus Florida’s incentives, they have a payback period of about 3 or 4 years. No Brainer! • Solar water heating saves 20 to 25% of power bills. If adopted universally in Florida, no new power plants will be needed. • Suitable exposure, appearance, roof leaks & freezing plus size of 80 gallon insulated storage tanks are issues. • Solar water heaters untapped for days, must be fitted with a “temperature mixing valve” to avoid a scalding. • European systems of roof attachment and mass manufacture are at least a decade ahead of the US. Solar Water Heater with PV powered pump Sun21 with 10.5 KW PV array as its roof, ran day and night while crossing from Basel Switzerland to New York. Mayor Diaz recognizes Atlantic Crossing & Sun21 founder Martin Vosseler on right and Ecological Constitution author Beat Von Scarpatetti on left. Sun21 Day in Miami April 2, 2007 Ignored by US & Strongly Covered in Europe 70’ Solar MW Line Water Taxi for Berlin Deck in the Shade of PV Array (before seats & side PV extensions installed) Recent US Automotive History • Recent General Motors CEO Rick Wagoner killed the successful EV-1 electric car and finalized plans to build the Hummer during his first week in office. • This was the second time GM killed the electric car. He also sold the patent for the best enabling battery technology, to a US oil company, which has shown no interest in marketing it. For more details watch “Who Killed the Electric Car” available on DVD from Sony. • Obama fired Rick Wagoner before the recent bailout. • GM and Chrysler both go bankrupt as the decades of misguided policies could no longer be escaped. • Ford began retooling earlier, while credit was still available, thus avoided bankruptcy. Introduced the 4 cylinder Ford Fusion Hybrid with 8 mpg better fuel economy claimed than Toyota’s Camry Hybrid. Recent European Auto History • Taxes on Gasoline have been maintained high enough to discourage fuel waste and generate key mass transit funding for those without cars. • Europeans taxed on engine displacement to discourage large wasteful vehicles like Hummers and Escalades. • Diesel was refined to a high enough purity that catalytic converters remain undamaged, so high mileage small engine cars were available before hybrids were developed. US lowered sulfur in diesel to match European quality with a price increase. Will Europe and Japan Dominate Electric & Pug-in Hybrid Market? • Europeans have over 35 years experience with electric vehicles, which regenerate, in quaint “tourist towns” with narrow streets, like Zermatt, Switzerland which, exclude internal combustion vehicles 11 months per year. Taxis last 35 year in heavy service and cost $80K custom made one at a time. • A profusion of electric cars will be introduced in 2010. • Electric vehicles need few repairs and little maintenance so profits must be made at the time of purchase. Electric Taxi Cab in Zermatt is expected last 35 years Electric Dump Truck/Snow Plow Engineer/owner & his family at Jumbo Garage in Zermatt New Mitsubishi EV in Munich undergoing 2 year German shakedown Photovoltaic Power Goes Mainstream

• Photovoltaic (PV) arrays are now mass produced globally. • If used in remote locations, they may require a battery bank for night operation, like Catamaran Sun21. • In states with Net-Metering, like Florida, utilities must buy back unused electric power, effectively turning the electric meter backwards, thus using the power grid instead of batteries to “store” produced power. • 30% Solar Tax Credits now apply for the next 8 years. You could get a check from your utility each month instead of a bill. Germany Feed-in-Tariffs Key

• German Power Companies must pay Feed-in-Tariff = $.54 per KW hour for 10 years thus paying solar installation costs back in 10 year or less. German retirees buy Solar Arrays instead of 401Ks for rising future income as oil goes up. This is a real “Power to the People” movement. • When Gainesville Florida recently enacted feed-in- tariffs, permits for the next 3 years sold out in a few days. • PV Prices in Germany are coming down about 5%/year as production volume increases. With higher volume manufacturing, cost parity with oil is predicted in 2016. • Issues include appearance and chemicals needed for needed in manufacture. But we will never run out of silicon. Solar water heater and photovoltaic array generate enough power most months so that their home owner gets checks from Florida Keys Power Cooperative, rather than bills Future Solar/wind Power Plant Array from Western Morocco to Eastern Saudi Arabia? • The vast desert area stretching over about 70 degrees of longitude east to west (south of 30 degrees latitude) has European Planners thinking about producing all the regional electric power need in Europe and the Middle East creating real power equity. • Such a plan would require true regional cooperation and could elimininate the supposed need for nuclear power in Iran as well as a possible fight for the last drops of oil, which both threaten to destabilize the world. • An efficient distribution system is clearly needed and could include monsoonal wind power where appropriate on the eastern and western flanks of the deserts. Wind Power Competes with Oil

• Wind Power is somewhat expensive on small scales but is price competitive today in large sizes. • Denmark has wind farms which generate 30% of their national power demand today while Germany aims to for 10% of their power plus the worlds largest windmill export market into the USA and other countries. • Texas & California have large scale wind farms as seen in T. Boon Pickens and “We Can Solve It” TV commercials. Tax Credits & Feed-in-Tariffs will speed growth in California. • Issues include visual taste, but bird fatalities are far less frequent than those caused by faster moving car collisions. • Power produced by windmills increases with the cube of wind velocity so picking locations with strong winds is crucial. • Wind turbines must be high enough to avoid turbulence in the atmospheric boundary layer. You can fly a kite at a proposed location to confirm needed height for steady air flow. Hybrid Catamaran Regenerates Battery Power with Wind to Produce Rapid Water Flow Past Propeller when Sailing European Carbon Cap & Trade vs. Feed-in-Tariffs • The European Cap and Trade market has been around for about a decade to establish Caps on GHG emissions and to provide market incentives for C02 reductions by establishing a price for carbon consumed or saved. Early credits were given away to cheaply or free of charge to heavy industry rather than sold making the system much less effective. • A straight tax on carbon would be easy to administer but politicians are allergic to passing anything called a tax. • Establishing values of various sequestration techniques is somewhat arbitrary where as Feed-in-tariffs are results driven and easily measured by common electric meters with little government detailed regulation or supporting funding needed. US Carbon Markets - Will we Learn from the European Experience? • Last Summer the debates on the Lieberman Warner Cap and Trade bill was supported by a letter signed by 1700 scientists and economists and circulated by 60 Scientists together with Economist on Capital Hill and got limited debate. • This years bill is know as Waxman-Marky Cap-and- Trade bill. The House energy committee approved the Waxman-Marky cap-and-trade bill but it will be under the same heavy pressures which compromised the European market during consideration by the Senate. • The next two weeks will be critical to its functional survival and Obama’s budgeting process which depends on sale of carbon allowances to fund several mandates. Future of Electric/Hybrid Cars • Electric cars were more common than gas cars in the early 1900s and are practical today as commuter cars charged at off peak rates. Golf Carts are the most popular EVs in the US especially in resort areas like Key Biscayne. • Six cities in Switzerland mandate electric vehicles like Zurmatt where they are expensive to buy but last for about 35 years. • Hybrid technology combines a small gas or diesel powered generator with storage batteries and regenerative breaking to reduce wasted power. Toyota and Honda are the most popular brands but Ford and others will compete in 2010. Electric/Hybrid Car Future? • The generator from your hybrid could easily supply your entire house with air conditioning after a hurricane. • Electric motors can be 90% efficient & produce maximum torque at zero rpm and provide regeneration as shown by the Mars Rover powered by solar panels alone. • With four independent motor/generators, one for each wheel, this would be the ultimate off road vehicle design. • Parking garages offer natural roof top locations for substantial solar arrays to feed internal charging stations for plug in hybrids and electric vehicles (EV) kept in the garage. My daughter rides new trains in LA on same right of way my mother rode, from LA to Pasadena by Light Rail Remember the correlation between CO2 and Temperatures: Note stability of Temperatures during the last 10,000 and spike of CO2 in last 100 years World Needs Realistic Economic Model • With an exponentially increasing human population and finite resources on earth, continuous economic expansion is not a mathematical possibility long term. • But we also say we are in recession when the economy fails to expand. But a recession brings down fossil fuel burning. • What is the correct metric to measure climate friendly, sustainable behavior? • 2000-Watt Society gains traction in Basel