Hydrologic Evidence of Climate Change in Monroe County, New York

OF M TY ON N R U O O E C S T K A T R E YO OF NEW Maggie Brooks County Executive Prepared in cooperation with the Monroe County Department of Health Hydrologic Evidence of Climate Change in Monroe County, New York ncreasing evidence of climate change has raised concerns that the predicted increases in air temperature and attendant changes in precipitation patterns will affect water resources around the world. An analysis of long-term meteorological and streamflow records can be used to identify trends that might be indicative of climate change, especially with respect to the magnitude and Ifrequency of floods and droughts in western New York, including Monroe County. IN BRIEF . Long-term annual mean air temperatures have been increasing over the past 40 years, but not beyond the historical range as defined by temperatures that have been recorded since 1890. Annual precipitation totals in the Great Lakes Basin within the United States have increased by an average of 4.5 inches since 1915. The chance that daily precipitation will exceed 2.0 inches has increased from once in 5 years prior to 1963 to nearly once every year since 1992, and the chance that daily precipitation will exceed 2.5 inches has increased from once every 20 years to almost once every 4 years. In urban streams, 7-day high flows and the Streams under drought (above) and flood (below) conditions. frequency of peak flows are increasing, whereas base flows are decreasing. In rural streams, base flows and 7-day low flows are increasing, whereas 7-day high flows show no discernible trend. Discrepancies in flow characteristics between rural and urban streams are attributed to differences in the amounts of impervious areas in each basin type. Flow characteristics of the Genesee River are unique because regulation of the outflow from Mount Morris Lake moderates the extreme flows, both high and low, that might otherwise occur in this river. U.S. Department of the Interior Open-File Report 2008–1199 U.S. Geological Survey August 2008 1 Value of Long-Term Weather and monthly precipitation at more than 1,200 sites throughout the contiguous United States. Stations are selected for inclusion in Streamflow Records this network on the basis of length of record, completeness of record, number of station relocations, and other station changes The National Weather Service (NWS) has collected that could affect the homogeneity of the data. The records are meteorological data in the Rochester, N.Y., area since at least subjected to quality-control tests and are adjusted for biases or 1872 (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, anomalies resulting from “suspect” and “outlier” values (those 2007). The NWS station is currently at the Greater Rochester that exceed 3.5 and 5.0 standard deviations from the mean, International Airport (fig. 1), and the data are available at the respectively); they also are adjusted for time-of-observation U.S. Historical Climatology Network (HCN) web site (Williams differences, changes in and relocation of measurement and others, 2007). This data set includes monthly average instrumentation, station relocations, and the localized warming maximum, minimum, and mean air temperatures and total effects caused by urbanization (Williams and others, 2007). Monroe County NEW YORK 78° LOCATION MAP 43°22'30" 77°22'30" 43°22'30" Lake Ontario Orleans County Monroe County 04232000 Rochester Greater Rochester 0423205010 International Airport Genesee County Churchville River East Wayne County Wayne Allen Creek Rochester Monroe County Black Creek 04232050 04231000 Creek 04230500 Genesee Scottsville Oatka Ontario County 43° Creek Garbutt Creek 78° Irondequoit Honeoye 43° Livingston County 77°22'30" Honeoye Falls 04229500 Base from U.S. Geological Survey, Seamless Data Distribution System, 0 5 10 MILES accessed in 2008 at http://seamless.usgs.gov, Universal Transverse Mercator projection, Zone 18 0 5 10 KILOMETERS EXPLANATION Stream County boundary 04232000 Streamflow-monitoring site and site number Figure 1. Locations of streamflow-monitoring sites and streams in Monroe County, N.Y. (Site-identification number, drainage area, and period of record for each site are given in table 1.) 2 Annual mean air temperatures in Monroe County have Rainfall quantity or intensity during individual storms fluctuated as much as 8 degrees Fahrenheit from 1890 through may be a more informative indicator of changes in precipitation 2005, according to data from Williams and others (2007). The patterns, and the effects of such changes, than total annual apparent increase in temperature over the past 4 decades is precipitation. Short-term extreme events are the most likely to within the historical range of temperatures shown in figure 2. produce large, potentially destructive flows. A comparison of the Unlike the air-temperature records, the records of annual upward trend in annual precipitation from 1948 through 1963 with that from 1992 through 2007 indicates that (1) the average precipitation at Rochester from 1872 through 2005 (Williams number of days per year on which precipitation exceeded and others, 2007) indicate an upward trend since about 1950 0.5 inch has increased from 16 to 22; (2) the chance that daily that currently exceeds historic levels (fig. 3). This trend has precipitation will exceed 2.0 inches has increased from once been verified through an analysis of annual mean precipitation in 5 years to nearly once every year; and (3) the occurrence of records collected at 34 HCN stations across the Great Lakes daily precipitation in excess of 2.5 inches has increased from Basin within the United States, including western New York, once every 20 years to about once every 4 years. These apparent from 1915 through 2004 that indicates a 4.5-inch increase in increases in the frequency of large precipitation quantities could annual precipitation during that 90-year period (Hodgkins and contribute to larger peak stormflows than have occurred in others, 2007). the past. 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 Figure 2. Annual mean of monthly mean air temperatures at the National Weather Service TEMPERATURE, IN DEGREES FAHRENHEIT 43 meteorological station, Rochester, N.Y., 1890–2005. Locally weighted smooth line (Based on data from Williams and others, 2007) 42 (The locally weighted smooth line in figure 2 and 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 the similar scatterplots that follow highlight the YEAR central tendency of the data.) 50 Locally weighted smooth line 45 40 35 30 25 ANNUAL PRECIPITATION, IN INCHES 20 Figure 3. Annual precipitation measured at the 15 National Weather Service meteorological station, 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Rochester, N.Y., 1872–2005. (Based on data from YEAR Williams and others, 2007) 3 Possible Effects of an Increase be scrutinized to identify anomalies and their causes. For example, urbanization of a watershed can affect peak flows. in Precipitation The magnitude of peak flows and the damages associated with flooding typically are greatest in urbanized areas, especially The possible effects of the apparent recent increase in where floodplains have been developed. Regulation of precipitation on the water resources of the county have not been streamflow also can affect long-term peak-flow records. Past defined. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the flooding on the lower Genesee River, such as the historic floods Monroe County Department of Health, however, has monitored of 1865, 1916, and 1942, is unlikely to recur because the Mount streamflow and water quality in many streams in Monroe County Morris Dam, constructed on the river near Mount Morris, N.Y., for several decades. Six of these streams—Honeoye, Oatka, in 1951, provides flood protection for downstream communities. Black, Allen, and Irondequoit Creeks, and Genesee River (fig. 1; The floods of 1960 and 1974 on Allen Creek and numerous table 1)—have been monitored for periods ranging from 26 years floods during the past decade on Allen and Irondequoit Creeks (Irondequoit Creek) to more than 75 years (Genesee River). are examples of regional flood events that caused extensive Long-term streamflow records can reveal changes and damage to property in the developed areas of the county. trends that cannot be identified in records that cover shorter Evidence of increased flooding can be seen in the peak-flow periods of time. Streamflow characteristics that can best be records of these two streams. During 1998–2006, Irondequoit 3 defined from long-term records are the magnitude and frequency Creek had eight peak flows that exceeded 1,800 ft /s (cubic of peak flows, the percentage of total streamflow that represents feet per second), each of which exceeded the highest flow base flow (the ground-water component of streamflow), and recorded during the previous 16 years (fig. 4). Peak flows on the duration of low and high flows (the percentage of time that Allen Creek, which has a smaller, more developed drainage flow in a stream is likely to equal or exceed some specified basin than Irondequoit Creek, also seem to be occurring more value). Trends in these characteristics for the six streams frequently than in the past (fig. 5). Although the number of 3 and their relation to climate change in Monroe County are peak flows exceeding 900 ft /s on Allen Creek during the last discussed below. 20 years (1986–2006) is equal to the number that occurred during 1960–80 (14 peak flows), only three of those flows exceeded 1,300 ft3/s during the earlier period, whereas seven Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Flows flows equaled or exceeded that rate during the later period. These apparent increases in the magnitude and frequency of Flooding in Monroe County is not new, but whether the floods on Irondequoit and Allen Creeks in the last 20 years can magnitudes of peak flows are increasing, or whether floods are be attributed partly to the increase in impervious area (roads, occurring more frequently than in the past, can be determined parking lots, and buildings) that has accompanied development through an examination of peak-flow records.

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